Latest / Pod Save America / A Guide to the 2024 Battleground States

Transcript

A Guide to the 2024 Battleground States · Pod Save America

• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Welcome to Pot Save America, I'm Tommy Vitor.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: I am Adisu Demesic.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: You guys, you all know Adisu by now. You've been
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: on co-hosts before.
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: You've done live shows before. Live shows, yeah, the whole deal.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: In case you missed those, he has worked for every
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: top Democrat in the party, at least the ones you
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: guys like. Obama, Biden, Clinton, Gavin Newsom, Cory Booker, Katie Porter.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: I'm sure I left some out.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: You did, but that's cool.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: As experienced a campaign staffer as I know, and a
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: great guy. So thank you for being here.
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, good to be here again.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: In person, too.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: In person, I love it.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: In LA. Of course, rocking the.
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I got to represent the Bay. I'm rocking my
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: Warriors gear as ever.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Stuff is still good. We got a great show today.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Sherry Brown's going to officially face off against Bernie Moreno
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: in Ohio's Senate race. Biden travels to Nevada and Arizona
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: to make his pitch to Latino voters and promote his
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: plan to lower housing costs and create jobs. And Team
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Trump is getting the old criminal band back together for
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: 2024 as Paul Manafort and Corey Lewandowski are making a
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: return to the team.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: God help us all. God help us all.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Why do that? We'll get to that in a bit.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: But first, Adisu, The presidential primary might be over, but
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: there's lots of action happening in these down-ballot races that
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: could determine who controls Congress next year, will determine who
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: controls Congress next year. Last night, we had primaries in
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: five states. We had Ohio, Arizona, Kansas, Florida, Illinois. In Ohio,
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: the Trump-backed MAGA candidate Bernie Moreno managed to fend off
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: challenges from Secretary of State Frank LaRose and the state
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: senator named Matt Dolan. Moreno is now going to go
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: up against Sherrod Browne. In the general election, Moreno is
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: a former car dealer from Cincinnati. He's the MAGA guy.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: He had backing from Trump and J.D. Vance and all
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: the goobers. The tally with about 95% of the vote
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: in this morning was Bernie Moreno, 50%, over 50%. Dolan
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: at 32.9%. LaRose, 16.6%. So they certainly split the vote there.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: So this is one of those races where Trump's guy
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: won and our guy won. The Democrats guy won. Can
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: you talk a bit about Bernie Moreno and what you
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: think his winning means for our chances of keeping this seat?
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know if he's our guy, but
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: I think he's the best candidate that.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Well, the DSCC spent $ 3 million boosting him. Yeah, fair.
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: He is the candidate that is most likely to lose
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: and thus to have Sherrod Brown go back.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: The Senate Majority Pack did, rather. Sorry, DSCC.
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: Shout out to SMP. But yeah, I think it increases
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: our odds. I think the SMP knows something. I think
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: the DS knows things, and that is that Moreno's weak.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: And we saw this in 2022 that.
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: You know, while Trump is his own political phenomenon, you
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: have to, you know, credit that, um, with the performance
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: both in 16 and in 2020, he has whatever the
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: opposite of the Midas touches when it comes to endorsing
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: down ballot. You got, I'm thinking back to 22, um,
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: Doug Mastriano and, uh, uh, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, Carrie
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: Lake and Blake Masters in, uh, in Arizona. Um, God,
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: the list goes on.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: Herschel Walker.
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: I'd look, I'd thankfully forgotten about him. Uh, Herschel Walker
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: in Georgia, et cetera. They all lost. And I think,
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: you know, the MAGA thing is, um, it helps Trump,
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: but it hurts everybody else, I think. Uh, and it
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: helps Trump only to, to a degree. And so ultimately
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: I think, I think Moreno is the weakest candidate that
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: we could have drawn. Um, that said in 2022, one
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: of the, um, candidates that I, that Trump endorsed that
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: actually did win was J.D. Vance, right? So in Ohio
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: right there. And so Ohio is a tougher state for us,
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: but we've got Sherrod Brown. And I think, you know,
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: with no offense to Tim Ryan, who ran, I think,
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: pretty much a flawless campaign, he was not an incumbent.
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: He did not have decades of statewide name recognition and
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: brand building and all the things that Sherrod Brown has.
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: So bottom line, Bernie Moreno is for a national abortion ban.
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: He's for repealing the ACA. He is everything that we
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: hate in many of the other senators that are there
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: in the Republican caucus. And he has the MAGA state
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: on him and a tough primary. He just went through
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: with a lot of negative ads dumped on his head.
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: So is it going to be easy? No, but did
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: we draw the best candidate that we possibly could?
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: And I'm sure it has a real chance.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Ohio is a tough, tough state, tough, tough state. But
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: the DSCC put out some attacks early on Moreno. He
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: also opposed the existence of the minimum wage, apparently.
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: Yes.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: He refused to pay employees overtime and shredded documentation about
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: it when challenged. He's an election denier. He called the
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: J6 defendants political prisoners. And there was this late breaking
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: like AP reports scandal about Moreno. So the AP reported
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: that in 2008, someone using Bernie Moreno's work email created
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: and authenticated an account on a website called adult friend finders, uh,
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: who was seeking men for one-on-one sex while traveling. Geolocation
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: data says this account was set up in Fort Lauderdale, Florida,
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: where Moreno's parents owned a home at the time. The
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: account name was like his first name and his birthday. Um,
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: why does it matter? It shouldn't.
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: It shouldn't matter.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: He used to be an enthusiastic supporter of LGBT rights,
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: but he changed everything about his views in 2021. And
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: now he's seeking votes from bigoted people that he spoke to,
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: you know, with these bigoted views. So, you know, the
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Moreno campaign says a former intern created this account as
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: a prank. That intern is also a donor.
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: Ah, the old intern defense.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the old let's sign my boss up for adult
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: friend finder prank. Who hasn't done that one? Anyway, weird
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: thing that just happened at the end. Again, I don't
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: give a shit, but Republicans might. But we should say,
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: so the establishment rode for Dolan. The Republican governor of Ohio,
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Mike DeWine, endorsed him. Rob Portman, the former senator, endorsed
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: him too. But Dolan and LaRose split the establishment votes.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: But let's just play a quick clip of Donald Trump
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: out on the campaign trail. stumping for Moreno from, I think,
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: last weekend.
• 5:51
  Speaker 4: I like sports and I like tradition. So you have
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: a team called the Cleveland Indians.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Indians, they're Indians.
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: And they took the name Cleveland Indians and made it
• 6:03
  Speaker 4: the Cleveland Guardians.
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: It's almost like they're in.
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: Charge of a trust fund. They're in charge of a
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: trust fund.
• 6:10
  Speaker 4: The Cleveland Guardians. And my attitude is anybody that changes
• 6:15
  Speaker 4: the name of the Cleveland Indians to the Cleveland guardians
• 6:21
  Speaker 4: should not be a Senator should.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Not be a governor. So I just thought that clip
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: was like a perfect encapsulation of Trump because it's clearly
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: racist because Mr. Populous there is dropping a reference to
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: trust fund stewardship. I don't even know what he's talking about,
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: but also at the end, he seems to maybe forget
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: what Moreno is campaigning for. So just vintage Trump.
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: I mean, look, yeah, he's a, It is part of
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: the appeal of Trump to the Republican base that he
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: just sort of says whatever the heck comes to mind.
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: It is not convincing to swing voters and obviously left-leaning
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: voters as well. But that's the thing that sells. And look,
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: the Republican Party is Trump's party. I said it last
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: time I was on this show. I said it in
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: the live show we did back up in San Jose.
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: And last night's results just make it clear, not just
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: in Ohio but elsewhere, that he has taken over the
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: party and this brand of politics is going to win
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: over a majority vote. of Republican voters, but not a
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: majority of American voters. And our challenge is to make
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: sure they vote for our guys when time comes in November.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: And we should just note that in this case, Sherry
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Brown is like one of the best senators we have.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: He is extremely progressive in a very red state. He
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: is more comfortable in factories and union halls than he
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: is at fundraisers. And trust me, I've seen him at both.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: A lot less good at the fundraisers, right? And that's
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: why we like the guy. So we really need him
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: to win. Yeah.
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: And can I just say, I think The Sherrod Brown
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: model of the Democratic Party is actually, I think, the
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: future of the Democratic Party. Weird maybe to say about
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: a relatively older white guy from the Midwest. But the
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: combination of populism and social liberalism that he really embodies
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: maybe better than anybody, it's kind of similar to what
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: President Biden, sort of how he came up in politics, is,
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: I think, the coalition that we both have to assemble
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: this year and going forward. And we will see, I think,
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: in November that it can win in a place like Ohio,
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: let alone Pennsylvania, Arizona states that are a little more
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: purple than Ohio is. So he's a great, great Senator,
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: a great guy. And in many ways, I think going
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: to be a model for us going forward into 26,
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: 28 and beyond, hopefully with Trump in the rear view mirror.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: Totally agree. And critical to holding the Senate. Also, uh,
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: add Maryland, by the way, to your States to be
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: anxious about Larry Hogan is near 50% and some polls
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: out today in that Senate race. So don't like that.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Don't like that. Um, so a couple other races we
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: should mention. So There were special elections in Ohio's 6th
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: district and California's 20th congressional district to replace retiring Republicans,
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: including Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Hilariously, Vince Fong.
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: Falling on his face here in California.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: So the Trump-McCarthy-backed candidate for McCarthy's seat didn't get to 50%,
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: which means he will now face a runoff, which means
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Speaker Johnson can't count on that seat, which is just delicious.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: So again, the Republican presidential primary is over, but we
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: still have people voting in Florida, Illinois, Ohio. There's some
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: exit polls we can dig into, but do you do
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: any like big takeaways from these other states and races?
• 9:16
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think the first one is the, the Trump,
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: you know, hold on the party continues. And we saw
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: obviously leading into Ohio in particular, that that was the
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: narrative that was out there, but 50 to 33 or
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: whatever you said is a pretty big win. And elsewhere
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: we saw Trump's endorsed candidates win. So again, I think
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: that's mostly a good thing for Democrats in November. It
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: also is high risk, high reward, right? If some of
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: these folks, you know, If Bernie Moreno becomes a senator,
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: that's very, very bad. Honestly, the other thing I saw
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: from yesterday is Nikki Haley still getting in the teens.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: I know.
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: Everywhere.
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: Everywhere, including Kansas.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: Including Florida, where she dropped out before voting even started.
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's not, you know, DeSantis only dropped out, whatever,
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: a month before her and is not getting nearly as
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: as much vote in his, in his home state, let
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: alone in these other states. And, you know, everyone is
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: talking about how, and rightly so how, how president Biden
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: needs to consolidate the democratic party. But we consistently have
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: now seen over the last month that Republicans, a good 10,
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: 20% of Republicans are coming out to vote in a,
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: primary that is over to express their displeasure with their
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: candidate more than what is happening with president Biden. And
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: so it's an undercover story. I think it's a, it's
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: interesting that to see if that continues as the Haley
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: dropout becomes further in the rear view. But I even saw, um,
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: exit polls yesterday from Ohio that showed that 10 to
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: 15% of Republican primary voters might not vote for Trump
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: in the general or my vote for Biden. And so
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: Ohio is one thing, right? Is it going to be
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: on the map in the fall? Maybe, maybe not, probably not.
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: But if you extrapolate that to the Arizonas and Georgias
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: and North Carolinas and Pennsylvanias of the world, like that's
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: a not insignificant number of people that could swing back
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: to Democrats and are expressing their displeasure despite voting in
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: a Republican primary.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, just to give the exact number. So
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: in the Ohio exit, seven in 10 GOP primary voters
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: will definitely back Trump. One in 10 will probably back Trump.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Two in 10 are leaning Biden or third parties. So yeah,
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: that definitely shows.
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: That's a lot. That's a lot of people. Again, Republican
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: primary voters. These are people who are the base, in theory,
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: of the Republican Party.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: You mentioned Nevada and Arizona. So since the State of
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: the Union, President Biden's been on the road. He's been
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: going to swing states. This week, he's stopping in Nevada
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: and Arizona. During the trip, his campaign launched a national
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: program to mobilize Latino voters. They also released a new
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: TV ad targeting Latino voters. though the issues they highlighted
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: were very familiar. It was the cost of insulin and
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: abortion access. Biden also did some Spanish language interviews where
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: he said Trump despises Latinos. That was an exact quote.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: So strong words there. Adisu, there's been a lot of
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: polling showing President Biden slipping with Latino voters. Why do
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: you think that's happening? And what do you think the
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: Biden campaign needs to do to fix the problem?
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: So a couple of things. First, I don't think that's
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: actually much different from what's happening sort of across the board.
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: I think we're seeing a lot of people who are
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: coming to grips with the fact that we have a
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: rematch of 2024 in every demographic group. They may be,
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: you know, costs are higher, things are difficult in the world,
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: et cetera. They're generally upset with the way the country
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: is going. We know the right track, wrong track numbers
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: aren't great across the board. And so the president bears
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: the brunt of that, regardless of who he, hopefully someday
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: she is. So I think we're seeing a lot of that.
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: Other thing I would say is Latino vote I think
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: about this a lot, not just with the Latino community,
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: but particularly with, with that community is, it's almost like
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: a phrase that doesn't mean anything because a first generation
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: Cuban American in Florida and a third generation Mexican American
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: in Nevada, like they're Americans and that's, I'm sure they
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: have other cultural similarities, but like they're so different. And
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: so I think, I think the better way to think
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: of it is the way that the Biden campaign thought
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: of it this week I've seen, which is, There are
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: states where the Latino vote is going to be particularly critical,
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: swing states to the path to 270. And those are
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: in particular Nevada and Arizona, but there are pockets in
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: other places as well. How do they get there? I mean,
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: I think the first thing is show up, which I
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: know is a trite thing to say, but I think
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: it's true in that community. It matters a lot. Physically
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: show up.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: Do it early.
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: And do it early. And it is still March. And
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: the president is already out there doing this in a
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: trip to Nevada yesterday, I think Arizona today. But I think,
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: and you mentioned this in the ad, Fighting Trump on
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: the character and culture issues, I think in the Latino
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: community in particular, is probably not where we should be
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: fighting our message war. It's on the issues. When you
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: talk to Latino voters in focus groups and polling and
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: you ask, what issues do you care about? It's certainly
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: the economy and jobs, but increasingly it's abortion access. It's
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: gun violence, which I've seen pop a lot. Um, not
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: just since you've all day, but we've seen it crime, crime,
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: et cetera. And so, and they trust Democrats on those
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: issues two to one, three to one, four to one.
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: And so show up and talk about issues and don't
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: get sucked into the back and forth about Trump and the, the,
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: the circus around him, which for us drives, you know,
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: liberals and people like me crazy, but I don't think
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: is what a swing Latino voter in Arizona or Nevada is.
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: is not what's going to drive their vote decision come November.
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: I mean, to your point, Axios did a survey in
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: June of 2023, where they found that a plurality of
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: Latino voters now say that neither party cares about them.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: Democrats still have a basically three to one advantage because
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: 30% of Latino voters think Democrats care more about them.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: 11% think Republicans. But to your point, I mean, I
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: think people don't feel like they're being spoken to about
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: the issues. They actually matter to them.
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: And in 2020, President Biden, I mean, I think I
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: ran a campaign against him in the primary. and Bernie
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: Sanders and others, really focused on this. I think Sanders
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: and Biden did a better job than any of the
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: rest of us in talking to Latino voters early. And
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: once we got into the general, even though it was
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: early and mid-pandemic days, they were up early on TV.
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: They were talking about these issues quickly. And I anticipate
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: the same happening this time. And so eight months is
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: a long time in politics. And that, I hope, and
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: I believe, will sort of move things into the president's direction.
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: Reality is, In an election where the margins are going
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: to be so close, and they are, everything matters. We
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: have to run every play and run every play well.
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: One thing I just wanted to flag, just because I
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: know you're a geek about polling like I am. So
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: the folks at Pew released this interesting report about bad
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: data that's coming out of a type of polling called
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: online opt-in polling. That is an online survey that's not
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: a random sampling of Americans. They're not dialing through the
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: phone book. It's people who choose to take a poll
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: because that usually they get compensated in some way. Yeah.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: So the folks at Pew noticed several recent studies that
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: found large errors in these kinds of online opt-in polls,
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: because a bunch of people were just, I guess, ripping
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: through the questions as fast as they could.
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: To get paid their 25 bucks.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: So in particular, the polling, the, these types of polls
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: tend to overestimate what would normally be a rare belief.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: For example, There was a recent opt-in online poll that
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: made big headlines when it found that 20% of US
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: adults under 30 think the Holocaust is a myth. Pew
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: tried to replicate that survey with different methodology. They found
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: 3% of adults under 30 think the Holocaust is a myth.
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: So it was a totally wrong poll. And to test
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: it further, in February of 2022, Pew did a survey
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: asking respondents if they were licensed to operate a nuclear
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: submarine in the opt-in survey. 12% of adults under 30
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: said yes. 24% of Latino respondents said yes. In reality, statistically,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: 0% is the answer. So what does this mean? We
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: don't know. It doesn't necessarily mean that young people are
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: the ones skewing these polls or that Latinos are. It
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: could just be like everyone taking them as lying.
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's true. I mean, if you offer an incentive,
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's the downside of offering an incentive, people.
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: It doesn't really matter. You're not offering them an incentive
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: for the result. You're offering them an incentive for participating.
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: And if all you have to do is click, click, click, click, click,
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: that's probably what's happening is click, click, click, click, click.
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: But it's part and parcel of the broader issue, which
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: we've been talking about since 2016 about polling. It is
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: becoming more difficult. It is becoming more expensive. And to
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: do it well, you have to have a good sample.
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: And to get a good sample, you have to spend
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: money to go find people to be representative of the
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: electorate at large and make some assumptions about it. And
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: you– everybody who is listening to this, who's reading polls
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: for the next eight months, you should pay attention.
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: Sure.
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: Look at the number on the top line first, but
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: like the second thing you should do is go look
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: at the methodology or the, and then look at the
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: averages and all those things, because the methodology can really
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: make a difference. And in serious ways, when we're talking
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: about nuclear submarine, a.
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: Lot of nuclear sub captains out there in America, but yeah, the, the,
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: the moral of the story is right. Don't freak out
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: about any one poll or especially some like outlier subsample
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: of all young people now, uh, pose abortion rights. Like
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: that's probably not true. Two quick things. We're going to
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: break you, Dsu. Uh, first of all, do you like soccer?
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: I love soccer.
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: Okay. I got a new podcast.
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: You'll never walk alone.
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: Thank you.
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: I'm a big Liverpool fan. I sure am.
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: Okay. Someone may be, uh, Roger Bennett from Men in Blazers,
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: my co-host in the series, made me like Everton and
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: that has not gone well. I got a series out.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: It's called World Corrupt. It's our second season. We are
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: focusing on how Saudi Arabia got the 2034 World Cup,
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: how they are pouring money into the Premier League, into
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: the Saudi League, and just fundamentally changing the entire sport
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: of soccer. It is a lot of fun. We're doing
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: four special episodes. It's on the Pod Save the World feed.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: You can get it now. Check it out.
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: I will listen.
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: There's lots of fun jokes and banter and soccer content.
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: British accents.
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, British accents. Also, some great news. So you've heard
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: us talk about our Vote Save America anxiety relief program,
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: raising a bunch of money for great organizations. That includes
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: organizations like Down Home in North Carolina, which and Western
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: Native Voice in Montana. They hit 100% of their end
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: of month fundraising goals because of you, the listeners. We
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: supported Power to the Polls and their efforts to engage 50,000
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: voters in Milwaukee. And we supported Ohio Organizing Collaborative's efforts
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: to register 250,000 new voters in Ohio. So thank you
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: to everyone who contributed. Help us keep that momentum going.
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: Go to votesaveamerica.com. Consider making a recurring monthly donation if
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: you can. gives everybody certainty, and it helps us fund
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: these great organizations. Paid for by Vote Save America, votesaveamerica.com,
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: not authorized by any candidate or candidates committee. The other
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: big push during Biden's trip and since the State of
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: the Union has been to highlight his housing agenda. That
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: includes urging Congress to pass legislation aimed at opening up
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: the housing market for first-time homebuyers and in making renting
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: more affordable. We both live in California. Housing prices are,
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: and have been a huge issue politically and personally for
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: people for a very long time, especially with young voters. Uh,
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: so this is no surprise and it's good that Biden's
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: focusing on this, but there is basically zero chance. I
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: think that Congress is going to do something. So what
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: do you make of the strategy of highlighting housing and
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: what can we actually do here?
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: I think, I think it's brilliant. I think, look, every
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: piece of research I have seen for the last two years,
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: cost of living is the number one issue. It does
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: not matter the demographic. It does not matter the geographic.
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: It is the number one issue for everybody in the
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: sort of post pandemic era. And what is the line
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: item on everyone's budget? Pretty much everyone's budget that is
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: taking up the biggest chunk of their money. It is
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: their rent or their mortgage or their housing costs. And
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: so while, you know, the cost of get, we talk
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: a lot about the cost of gas and the cost
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: of groceries, because you see it every week when you
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: go to the store, it's dynamic.
• 21:03
  Speaker 5: Exactly.
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: It, It actually is, at the bottom line, it's the
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: thing that's driving a lot of costs. And we were
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: on the vanguard of that here in California because we've
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: been seeing that for longer, I think, than the rest
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: of the country, certainly pre-pandemic because of our housing shortage.
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: So I think the president is doing a really smart
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: thing that may not, particularly here in the West, I think,
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: where we've had these problems for longer, but even in
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: most urban areas where we've seen rents and housing costs
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: go up, to talk about an issue that is hitting
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: people in their pocketbooks and trying to do something about it.
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: And I think I said this last time I was
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: on the show, we're not going to be able to
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: convince people that, you know, the sky is green when
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: the sky is blue, if they're not, you know, if
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: costs are high and if the economy is in a
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: different place come November, but we certainly can. And I
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: think people are willing to believe that the president is
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: trying to do something.
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, fighting for you.
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: He's trying, he's fighting for you and Donald Trump is not.
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: So that's what this is about.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: That's exactly right. Just so folks know, Biden's also in
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: Arizona to cut a big check to Intel from the
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: CHIPS Act for a new manufacturing plant, which will create
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: a bunch of jobs. So, You know, they're still sort
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: of working to get him credit for things he has
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: done play as well. In terms of the polling, look,
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, Arizona, some recent surveys, recent Emerson poll has
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: Trump up four. He's up more if you include RFK Jr.
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: in that and some of the other candidates. There's a
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: big Arizona Senate race. Ruben Gallego is beating Kerry Lake
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: by four at the moment in the most recent poll.
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: And then again, I.
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: Really want to meet these Trump Gallego voters.
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: I would love to meet them, too.
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: They're out there. They're out there. There are a lot
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: of Trump, you know, Trump Kelly voters.
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you gotta find them.
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you gotta find them.
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: And then in Nevada, you know, Trump is up between
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: three to five points. So, you know, tough, tough states
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: right now.
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the map is, look, there's no sugarcoating it.
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: It is a tough environment out there right now. But
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: we're also in a pre-campaign period. We're really at the
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: starting gun, right? I don't know what, use whatever analogy
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: you want. Spring training.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: It's spring training.
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: Maybe it's the first inning. Maybe you can call it
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: the first inning. Certainly the first quarter.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: There you go.
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: Uh, yeah, let's go March Madness. Uh, it is, it
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: is the first quarter of the, of, of, of the
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: play in, what are they, what were the, the, the, yeah,
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: the games that happened before the first four.
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: The games that get into the tournament.
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, those ones.
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: So we're at the beginning and, um, the president, like
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: I said earlier, is the incumbent and takes all the
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: slings and arrows that come along with it. We have
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: to change this election from a referendum on the president
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: to a choice between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. And
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: that is what the campaign is all about. That's what
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: the next eight months are all about. And so, Polling
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: is polling. It's a snapshot in time. It means something,
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: but it is not predictive of the outcome. The outcome,
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: there's a lot of twists and turns. And we cannot predict, honestly,
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: what's going to happen between now and November. That is
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: out of our control, and we can only do the
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: things that are in our control. So I'm not worried
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: about the polling, honestly. But do I think this is
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: going to be an election decided by a couple thousand
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: votes in a couple states? The answer is yes.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: Me too.
• 23:55
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: After Labor Day, we all get to freak out.
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. You can, you can freak out about the polling.
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: Have me back in October and then we can freak out.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: Promise. We will. So the key states this time around
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: will sound very familiar to anyone who lived through 2020. Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin,
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: maybe North Carolina, hopefully North Carolina.
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: I think North Carolina.
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: North Carolina has got a big governor's race. The attorney general,
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: Josh Stein, is running against a genuinely frightening extremist Republican
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: lieutenant governor named Mark Robinson. We've talked about him a
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: bit before on previous episodes, but here's a quick sampling
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: of this guy just to prepare us for this segment emotionally.
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: America is still the greatest nation on earth. And I
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: don't care what these communists say. I don't care what
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: these socialists say. I don't care what these blue haired
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: freaks say with a tackle box in their face at
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: the college campus. This is the greatest nation on earth
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: and it's all because of God. He's the one that
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: made it possible. So we give him thanks first and foremost.
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: How about that shit? So Adisu, like, okay, let's be hopeful.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: Let's start with North Carolina. Let's go on offense here.
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: So Obama won the state in 2008. We haven't won
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: again since. There's a Marist poll out this morning. That's
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: not great. Again, Trump at 51, Biden at 48, snapshot
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: in time. We'll set it aside. But as compared to
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: the 2020 exit, it seems like Biden is gaining support
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: among white voters but losing ground with black voters. What
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: do you think of our prospects in North Carolina generally
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: and whether it's worth– I think it's a pretty expensive state, right?
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it is. It's a much bigger state than I
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: think even as I was thinking about this cycle. I forgot.
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: I think 16 electoral votes. I mean that's big. Not
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: quite Pennsylvania but bigger by 50% than Michigan and Wisconsin,
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: for example. So a lot of money has to go
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: into it and you have to feel confident that you
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: can win it. I definitely think it's on the map.
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: 100% think it's on the map. I think, um, whether
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: Robinson's lunacy helps drive people into, uh, the democratic camp,
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: I think is an open question. I don't think it's
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: a certain thing, but the map is wide right now,
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: I think, because 51, 47, right? Again, snapshot in time,
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: whatever it might be. That's in play, right? That's not,
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: it's not out of, it's not out of touch, uh,
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: or out of reach, I should say. And whether it
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: be North Carolina, Georgia, uh, I also think it's true
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: on the other side, right? We have to make sure we,
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: we keep an eye on the Minnesotas and Colorado's of
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: the world that could, that could fall the other way.
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: But I think North Carolina is squarely in the battleground map.
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: I think Georgia is squarely in the battleground map and
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: they're going to have to be some tough decisions from
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: people over the Biden campaign and others come the fall
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: about resourcing, right? And this is where everybody talks about fundraising, vote,
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: save all the things we're doing. Like those are, when
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: you're a campaign manager, And you sit down and the
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: rubber meets the road and you say, okay, I have
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: X amount of money to invest in X amount of places.
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: That X number gets bigger if you have more money.
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: It gets smaller if you have less. And so it's
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: going to ultimately be a resource decision. But of the
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: eight states that could tip this election, North Carolina.
• 26:58
  Speaker 5: Is one of them.
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: And you have X amount of candidate time and you
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: have to decide where that person goes. So we mentioned
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: the governor's race, Mark Robinson, the Lieutenant Governor of the Republican.
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: He's a genuinely frightening person. He has a history of
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: posting anti-Semitic conspiracies. He said the film black Panther was
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: a plot by agnostic Jews and satanic Marxists did not
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: know that, uh, he wants to erase boundaries effective then.
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: Cause I really enjoyed it.
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: It's a great movie.
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: Uh, he thinks church and state, uh, should be synced up.
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: No boundaries there. Well, like this guy, look, he's dangerous.
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: And it's in my view, another reason, I think, I
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: hope the presidential will actually invest in North Carolina to
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: at least to boost Stein, but he's so extreme. He's
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: made so many outrageous comments. that he's Trump-like, it can
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: be kind of hard to know where to shoot at,
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: what things to focus on. What do you do with
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: a guy like this?
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: You know, that's a good question. I don't, I said
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: this earlier, I don't think that Trump is a replicable model.
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: I think Trump is one of one. Yeah, oh yeah.
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: Most famous person in the world.
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, I think about something Chris Christie
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: said back in 2015, I'll never forget it, where he said,
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: I didn't realize I was going to be running against
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: 15 years of The Apprentice.
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: You're right.
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: Um, uh, and not just, you know, Trump, the candidate.
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: And I think that that is, or something, it was
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: something like that. And that's what Trump is. It's not
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: just the politician Trump that came down the escalator in 2015.
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: It's everything that preceded that. Mark Robinson doesn't have any
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: of that.
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: And so I think you go straight at the extremism. Um,
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: I do not think that swing voters or, you know, moderate, independent,
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: whatever you want to call them, voters in North Carolina
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: are feeling the Mark Robinson thing, the way they might
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: feel the Trump thing, because again, There's more to Trump
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: than just the last eight years in a lot of
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: their minds in terms of his brand. So I think
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: you go right at it. Still think you can't, you
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: can't avoid talking about the bread and butter issues as
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: it were, but I think he is so far out
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: of the mainstream and so not well-defined in the electorate
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: that you can run right up the middle and, and
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: you know, we could see a Mastriano Shapiro, which is,
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: you know, the Pennsylvania governor's race where Shapiro won by what?
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: 15 points.
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, Robinson really liked to post on Facebook. which
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: I think he probably regrets. Speaking of Georgia, Georgia's looking
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: a little tougher. Again, in the Marist poll out today,
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: it's Trump winning 51% of the vote, 51 Trump, 47 Biden. Again,
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: snapshot in time. RFK Jr. isn't on the ballot yet
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: in Georgia, but Trump also wins if you include him.
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: So it's clear that RFK Jr. is not helping Biden anywhere.
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: Marist's write-up of the poll notes that Trump is gained
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: with younger voters as compared to the 2020 exits. That
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: seems to be a trend we're seeing in a lot
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: of places. What do you think is going on in Georgia?
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: And do you think it's still like a top swing
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: state this time?
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: I do. I think it is different because there's no
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: Senate race on the ballot. There's nothing else on the ballot.
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: No Warnock, no Ossoff, no Stacey Abrams. And that you know,
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: Amanda Lipman talks about reverse coattails and run for something
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: a lot. And I think that there is something to
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: be said about that, particularly with Warnock, um, as an
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: African American, you know, from Atlanta and how he, I
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: think helped Biden in 2020. Um, so, but I do
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: think it's still on the, it's still squarely in the, uh,
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: in the battleground map, similar to, to, uh, uh, to
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: North Carolina. If I'm being honest, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan are
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: still the blue wall. Like they just are. And, um,
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: they're also, I think the states that probably Biden is
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: currently strongest in and you win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: New Hampshire. And I think the Omaha congressional district and
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: you get 270 electoral votes. I'm not suggesting that is
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: the only path, but it's probably the path of least
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: resistance right now. Um, and so I think that I
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: would put the Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, the other, um,
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: swing states that Biden may have won some, some of
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: which he, he won in 2020. In a second, but
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: close second tier.
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: So like a 1A.
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: So you mentioned Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. So you're right. The
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: best state for Biden in the RCP polling average at
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: the moment is Pennsylvania. I think he's, it's tied basically.
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: He's down like 0.6. Then it's Wisconsin, then Michigan. There
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: was a Quinnipiac poll the other day that Biden down
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: about three points in Michigan in the head to head
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: and down five if you include RFK and other candidates.
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: Biden has gotten some good news recently in terms of
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: endorsements from labor unions. He was out on the picket line.
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: But what do you think? I agree with you. These
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: are like the blue wall states. What do you think
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: he needs to do to win these voters?
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: Same as what he's been doing. I think, you know,
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: Pennsylvania in particular, I think it means a lot, obviously,
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: to the Bidens and to the president personally. And he
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: has a sort of unique connection, I think, with Pennsylvania.
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: But Michigan, Wisconsin, all those states are, they're blue collar states,
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: you know, and Joe is a blue collar guy. And
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: I think, you know, they're disproportionately, at least certainly Wisconsin,
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: and to some extent, Michigan, white, whiter than the Arizonas
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: and Georgias of the world, as it were. And so,
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: you've just got to keep being, being, being Joe, right. And, um,
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: like I said earlier, the, the costs are still the
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: number one issue of the economy, but specifically costs and
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: costs of living. And the president has a record to
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: run on there, right. And a record of supporting labor
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: and having, you know, working people in organized labor, get a,
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: get a hand up and get a leg up in
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: this otherwise difficult economy, creating jobs, increasing wages, you name it.
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: And so, I actually think that message sells in some
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: ways even better in those upper, or whatever you want
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: to call them, the blue wall states than it may
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: in the Sun Belt. But just keep doing what you're
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: doing and deliver it. Honestly, it's volume. At some level,
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: it's volume. It's like you got to break through the noise,
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: and that's what presidential campaigns do when we're all talking
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: about it, when the media echoes with the paid media,
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: echoes with the candidate appearances.
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: A lot of paid. The Trump strategy seems to be
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: a couple of parts.
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: It's one.
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: He's just using immigration to demagogue issues. He's trying to
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: use immigration to split off Latino, black, and labor voters
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: from the Democratic Party. He's overtly saying that Biden's bringing
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: them in to take your job. So that's one piece
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: of it. And then today, actually, Biden rolled out a
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: new rule to ensure that all new passenger cars and
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: light trucks sold in the US are electric or hybrid
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: by 2032, something that Gavin Newsom has actually led on
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: here in California. Obviously, that's hugely important for climate change.
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: But Trump is trying to use that as a wedge
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: issue to say, you know, people don't want these electric vehicles.
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: They don't work. We don't have plug-ins for them. He's
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: going to tank the auto industry. That was the bloodbath comment.
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: He needs to call his buddy Elon. But that's a
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: conversation for another day.
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: Are you worried about that? I am.
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: If I'm going to be honest, I am. I think– because, again,
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: the margins are so close, right? And Trump is very–
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: what Trump I think is best at in some ways
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: in politics is driving a wedge, right? He is, he
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: really understands that, oh, this is the issue that touches
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: the hot, you know, the hot button.
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: He always finds it.
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: He finds it and he just digs in and he
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: demagogues it and he finds a way to get attention
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: for himself, which will amplify it to the conversation we
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: just had. And so I am worried about it. And
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: I think there's an anxiety in the country, right? And
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: that is the interesting thing about this race is that
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: despite that anxiety, it's not really a change election. It's
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: like a stability election. People want to feel like things
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: are okay and order election a little bit, but yeah,
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: but Trump is going to make, try to make it
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: a change in anxiety election. And that means he's going
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: to keep demagoguing that stuff. And so I don't know
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: what we can do other than counter it with our
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: own message on whether it be immigration or, um, you know,
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: the jobs that come with a green economy and what
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: have you. But it is definitely going to be a
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: sort of clash of strategies and a class of messages and,
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: you know, may the best, hopefully, liberal Democrat win.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: You mentioned anxieties. My anxieties are two things that are
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: sort of writ large. One, there's a national pullout today
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: by Ann Seltzer, who was the Iowa pollster, who was
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: like the best in the business. The take home is
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: Democrats have lost the enthusiasm advantage we had prior to 2020.
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: Part of that, I'm sure, is whenever you're the incumbent,
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: people get mad at you for stuff that's happening in
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: the world. I do think a big chunk of that
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: is Gaza and what people are seeing in the news
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: every night and the frustration people are feeling about President
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: Biden's refusal to split from Bibi Netanyahu, take a harder line,
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: cut off weapons to Israel. So I'm going to keep
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: pounding that hobby horse. But also, there's this cultural thing happening.
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: And I feel like the democratic party is kind of
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: like missing out on this sweeping anti-establishment feeling that you
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: see in a lot of ways. You see it in
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: people mad about cancel culture. You see people mad about
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: vaccine mandates, people who are psyched about crypto and wanting
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: to burn the financial system down.
• 35:55
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: It's like, it crosses into that weird, like manosphere MMA space.
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: Uh, you're totally right. It's like the Rogan podcast world.
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: The Barstool sports and like, this is like ill-formed idea, uh,
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: But I just, I hate that we Democrats are like
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: the establishment party now. And I think for young men
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: in particular, being for Trump is anti-establishment and it's cool.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: They feel like the system has screwed them and Trump
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: can help them burn it all down. You're seeing like
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: LA comedians and actors endorsing Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: some reason. And like that kind of strain of feeling
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: and sentiment is really worrying me. And I don't, I
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: don't know that Joe Biden is the guy who can
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: speak to that.
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm happy to be your therapist on this today.
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: Thank you very much.
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: I appreciate that.
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: No, I think about it a lot too. And I
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: think you're right, particularly, honestly, young white men, I think.
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: I think young men of color are also susceptible to it.
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: But the sort of feeling of, you know, the anxiety
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: and the feeling of loss of power that I think
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: some status, I think, is also fueling a lot of that.
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: And look, the president is the president, first of all.
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: So it's really hard not to be the establishment when
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: you sit in the White House every day. And he's
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: been around for a long time, right? So it's going
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: to be hard to be the insurgent when you are
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: sitting in power.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: It should be hard for Trump too, but somehow he
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: pulls it off.
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: But I do think here would be my number one
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: pushback on all of that is the populism. The villains
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: are actually the corporations who are taking advantage of us.
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: The elites, the people who are partially responsible for the
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: high costs that we're seeing out there that are you know,
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: gouging us and taking their sixth home and whatever San
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: Tropez instead of, and while workers, um, uh, you know,
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: are on the line working harder for less. And I've
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: seen UAW president Fain and others sort of really harp
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: on this and the president has leaned into it, into
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: it too. I think we have to have our own villain,
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: I guess is kind of what I'm saying. And I
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: think that is every, every story has to have a villain. And, um,
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: that is the, I mean the actual villain, but I
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: also think the one that is the most You know,
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: the big farmers and big oils is the one that
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: is the most authentic to who Joe Biden is and
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: who Democrats are at this point in time. And so
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: we lean more into that and associate Trump and the
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: Republican Party with that, which voters are, I think, inclined
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: to do. They're still the party of big business, I think,
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: in the minds of most voters. It will help us.
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: push off, uh, as you know, in our own anti-establishment.
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, I think some of those big pharma
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: companies paid $ 0 in taxes last year because of the
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: Trump tax cuts in 2017. And that's just a story.
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: And Joe Biden beat them. And now we have insulin
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: at $ 35, right? That is a, that is a story
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: that fits into a 30 second ad and is a real,
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: I think can be really effective with those people who
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: might otherwise be disillusioned for whatever reason.
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: One place Biden is winning big is in this fundraising race.
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: He raised more than $ 53 million in February, and now
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: Biden and the DNC have $ 155 million on hand. The
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: Trump campaign and the RNC have $ 40 million on hand
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: at the end of January. I don't believe they've reported
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: their February numbers yet. Maybe I'm wrong. So as we speak, Adisu,
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: the Biden campaign, they're putting ads on TV. They're opening
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: offices in swing states. I think they just opened like
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: 40-plus offices in Wisconsin, just remarkable and early. They're investing
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: in staff. The Trump campaign and the RNC, they're paying
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: off legal bills, they're insulting Lara Trump to run the RNC.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: They're doing a red wedding for the rest of the staff.
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: The Republican state parties in Michigan and several other states
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: are just a fucking disaster, you know, like election deniers
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: and insurrectionists leading them. But how much do you think
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: money and organizing at this stage is Or the presidential
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: level generally matters?
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: I think it matters on the margins, right? If it's
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: a wave election like 1984, right?
• 39:55
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: Or Reagan won 49 states. There's only so much you
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: can do. Campaigns can move things on the margins, right?
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: A couple percentage points here or there. But you can
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: write this down in ink. This thing is going to
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: be decided by a couple percentage points in a couple states.
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: And so it really matters. And I think in addition
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: to having the bully pulpit of the, of the white
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: house as a huge advantage, the, the, the money and
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: organizing and the sort of the fact that the democratic party,
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: despite our challenges and our divisions inside, like we kind
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: of got our shit together right now, like as best
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: as you possibly can. Uh, certainly if you compare us
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: to the, compared to the other side.
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: And so it's a, it's a good thing. It is
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: definitely a good thing. Is it going to be dispositive?
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: Um, but I'd rather be, I'd rather be us than them.
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, me too. Um, just to put a little more
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: meat on this bone. So the New York times says
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: that outside groups have pledged over a billion dollars to
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: help Biden's reelection. There was some strategists in this article
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: that said they think the full total of outside money
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: just for Biden could hit between 2.5 and $ 3 billion.
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: And we're talking about like a league of conservation voters
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: pledged 120 million. Uh, the Biden campaign itself expects to
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: raise and spend 2 billion. the future forward Biden super
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: PAC reserve, $ 250 million in ads. It's just like the
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: list goes on and on. It's just, it's a staggering
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: amount of money.
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: We'll see if it all happens, but I think, uh,
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: I don't always come to, we'll see. I think have
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: me back on December and we'll see, you know, uh, uh,
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: what happens. But I think, I think that first of all,
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: there's well intention behind them. Second of all, some of
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: them are real, right? We've seen reservations already go up, but,
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: It really doesn't matter. You know, it's hard. I came
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: up through field. Like I'm an organizer at heart. My
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: first 10 years of my career, I was grinding it
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: out in field offices in Hammond, Indiana and I don't
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: know where else, West Des Moines, Iowa. But I do
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: think that as the media environment has fractured so much
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: and people get their news from so many different sources,
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: the importance of both individual contact and paid media has
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: actually gone up and both of those things cost a
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: lot of money. And so, I mean, do I think
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: that $ 3 billion is, I mean, I hope. If somebody
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: told me that $ 3 billion is actually going to be
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: spent on Biden's behalf, like I could sleep better at
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: night about the results in November. Again, not necessarily dispositive,
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: but it would really help because it's hard to communicate
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: with people. Even in organizing, it's hard, right? It's hard
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: to get people to answer the phone or to answer
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: the knock at the door these days. It's hard to
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: get media in front of them because they're not necessarily
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: watching broadcast television or cable. They're watching streaming or maybe
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: they're watching YouTube or maybe they're watching TikTok, which you
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: can't advertise on. So we need as much resources as
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: we possibly can so that we can reach people in
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: any number of different ways. It's not just going to
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: be broadcast television like it was even probably 20 years ago, right?
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: Where it's just like just pile money on TV and
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: like you see the numbers move.
• 42:53
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: The other sort of near-term advantage is, you know, normally
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: after a tough primary, the campaigns try to mend fences.
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: You know, Biden did this with Bernie Sanders in 2020
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: and everyone else was running against him. Trump is just
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: not even trying. He's still attacking Ron DeSantis with his nicknames.
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: Poor tiny D.
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he's telling Haley voters that they're blacklisted if they
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: give her money or they're not welcome. I mean, look,
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: the cynic in me worries a bit that we're just
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: a polarized country and eventually we sort into camps, but
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know. It's weird, right?
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: It is weird. It's just, it's textbook Trump. I mean,
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: like we said earlier, what, 20% of Ohio Republicans are
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: thinking about not voting for their party's nominee, so... I
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: do think people come home at the end, particularly in
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: presidential campaigns, Democrats and Republicans. So I wouldn't put too
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: much stock in it. I don't know. What do you think?
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: I think it's wishful thinking that a Republican in Georgia
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: is going to vote for Joe Biden, a hardcore Republican
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: voter because they're mad about a primary.
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: One thing that does worry me, though, about the Trump
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: team this time around is his campaign has been far
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: better run. They've organized well. Their negative campaign against Haley
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: on Social Security was really effective. And they've done it
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: with less money. They've done it with a lazy candidate.
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: They've done it with a candidate who's in courtrooms all
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: the time. So it's impressive. But those of us who
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: miss the chaos and incompetence of the 2016- Guess what?
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: Guess what? Of course, they did win. But they're bringing
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: back Paul Manafort, Corey Lewandowski. Manafort was Trump's campaign chairman.
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: He was convicted of felony bank and tax fraud and
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: at one point employed a Russian spy at his polling firm.
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: Don't forget about that. Trump pardoned him. Corey Lewandowski was
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: Trump's first campaign manager. He was accused of physically assaulting
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: a female journalist and eventually pushed out of that job.
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: More recently, he was pushed out of a pro-Trump super
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: PAC after the wife of a donor accused him of
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: making unwanted sexual advances.
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: Why?
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: Why bring these guys back? What is happening?
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: The guy just wants to surround himself with ass kissers. Like,
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: it's what it is. And I think when the rubber
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: meets the road, he's going to bring back the people that,
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: to your point, he believes helped him win the first time, right?
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: And who.
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: submit to his every whim and he wants everybody to
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: kiss his ass and be under his thumb and Manafort
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: and Lewandowski are willing to do it. And so there
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: you go. Um, I think it's, I think, I mean,
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: I don't want to sound, I feel like I'm sounding
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: too positive in some of this conversation, but like, here's
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: what I'll say. I couldn't, yeah, you edit out some
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: of the good stuff. So we get to the tough stuff,
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: but they've run a good campaign.
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: They've run a really good campaign.
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: I like, again, as a, as a practitioner, They've run
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: a good campaign. The way they went after Haley and
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: DeSantis was very smart.
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: Destroyed DeSantis.
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: Destroyed them. And, um, it is, it is from a
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: practitioner's perspective, a better quality campaign to date than I
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: think 2016 or 2020. And so bring back the clown show, like.
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: God bless. Like, can we have more mess? Like, sure.
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: I want, I love messes.
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: I do too.
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: So bring it on.
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: I do wonder if there's part of Trump at the
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: moment where he's just like railing against the justice system period.
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: And he's like, yeah, anyone who was convicted for being
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: around me was, you know, set up by Joe Biden
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: and the DOJ. I mean, Peter Navarro, Trump's former trade
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: advisor reported to prison on Tuesday for contempt of Congress
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: because he wouldn't give testimony to the January 6th committee hearing.
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: So he's going to do four months in the clink.
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: Also coming back, though, with some old messaging, January 6th
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: has become a key part of Trump's campaign messaging. Last Sunday,
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: he played a version of the national anthem sung by
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: the January 6th rioters who are currently in prison.
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: It's wild.
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: It's wild.
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, that is just wild boy shit right there.
• 46:28
  Speaker 3: Wild.
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: He calls them hostages. He's talking about pardoning them. Look,
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: it's enraging that January 6th didn't permanently end his career, right? Like,
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: it's shocking that we're still talking about this guy. But again,
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: we know from polling that pardoning these people in particular
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: is wildly unpopular. Are you surprised that he's doing this? Why?
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: He has no impulse control. I mean, everything I just
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: said about the execution of his campaign has been around him,
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: not him. And one of the biggest frustrations for me
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: and probably a lot of the listeners is that The
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: crazy shit that he said over the last six months
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: of this primary and even in this first sort of
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: couple weeks of the general election is not as prominent
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: as we'd like it to be, right? It's funny because
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: we complained about him getting too much airtime in 16
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: and now it's like, where are we? Where are we?
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: But it's true. But he has no impulse control. He
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: cannot help himself. And so I don't think he's doing
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: this for political reasons. I think he's doing it because
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: this is how he actually feels. despite the fact that
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: it hurts him politically. It's our job to drive the message.
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: Do I think that should be at the exclusion of
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: all the things I talked about before? Economic stuff, et cetera.
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: The answer is no. It can work with some people
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: and it can work as a contrast message with President
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: Biden being the statesman that he is and Trump being
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: whatever the fuck you want to call that. But the
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: core of the message I think still needs to be,
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: I am trying to make your life better with real
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: things like, insulin for 35 bucks and healthcare costs are down.
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: And like, you might, it might be tough right now
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: out there guys, but like, I'm on your side and
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: this guy is on the side of that's where you
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: might be able to reference it, right? This guy's on
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: the side of insurrectionists and corporate robber baron.
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I know. I agree. I think, you know, the
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: Biden message will probably likely be what he's done and
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: what he wants to keep doing and how he's fighting
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: for you. And then all that super PAC money we
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: talked about earlier, I hope to God they are cutting
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: ads with Mike Pence saying he's not going to endorse
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: and talking about January 6th and just reminding people of
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: the horror of that day, because it is shocking to
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: me what we're able to memory hole in this country
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: within days, if not weeks. But, um, I still think that,
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I think back to where I was
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: on January 6th, like sitting on my couch.
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: I was going to say, I remember it well.
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: 13 months in a row, tweeting, screaming at the Twitter machine. But, uh,
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: I do think it horrified most of the country. It did.
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: It did. And I think, but you're right. The memory
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: hole thing is super real. Like, Voters do not have
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: memory for politics. They don't remember who is president, all
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: sorts of things, right? And I don't blame them. They've
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: got more important things to think about on a daily basis,
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: but it's our job to remind them, right? And that's
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: what we got to do. And luckily, the whole world
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: is going to turn its attention to this competition come
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: the fall. And that's where it's all going to shake out.
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: Most of the country right now is like, what?
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah. They're gearing up for March Madness.
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: Just like me. Yeah, me too, man. Adisu, thank you
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: so much for coming in, for doing the show. This
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: was a blast. And we're going to take you up
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: on this offer to come back many, many more times.
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: I honestly regret that decision.
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: No, I'm just kidding. I'll be back. You're not leaving
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: this room. All right. Take care, man.
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: Thanks.
• 49:42
  Speaker 5: If you want to get ad-free episodes, exclusive content, and more,
• 49:44
  Speaker 5: consider joining our Friends of the Pod subscription community at crooked.com
• 49:48
  Speaker 5: slash friends. And if you're already doom-scrolling, don't forget to
• 49:51
  Speaker 5: follow us at Pod Save America on Instagram, Twitter, and
• 49:53
  Speaker 5: YouTube for access to full episodes, bonus content, and more. Plus,
• 49:58
  Speaker 5: if you're as opinionated as we are, consider dropping us
• 50:00
  Speaker 5: a review. Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production.
• 50:04
  Speaker 5: Our show is produced by Olivia Martinez and David Toledo.
• 50:07
  Speaker 5: Our associate producers are Saul Rubin and Farah Safari. Kira
• 50:11
  Speaker 5: Wakim is our senior producer. Reid Cherlin is our executive producer.
• 50:14
  Speaker 5: The show is mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Jordan
• 50:17
  Speaker 5: Cantor is our sound engineer with audio support from Kyle
• 50:20
  Speaker 5: Seglin and Charlotte Landis. Writing support by Hallie Kiefer. Madeline
• 50:24
  Speaker 5: Herringer is our head of news and programming. Matt DeGroat
• 50:27
  Speaker 5: is our head of production. Andy Taft is our executive assistant.
• 50:30
  Speaker 5: Thanks to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Haley Jones, Mia Kelman,
• 50:33
  Speaker 5: David Tolles, Kiril Pallaviv, and Molly Lobel.
• 50:40
  Speaker 3: Thank you.