Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - READY for HUGE Year End Rally? + Stock Market News 18 October 2024

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Felix Prehn - READY for HUGE Year End Rally? + Stock Market News 18 October 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here, welcome to this pre-market prep on a day where we've got massive tech news Netflix got big shifts in the market, big shifts in expectations, and the question therefore is how do we make money out of this?
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: That's really what we aim to answer here today.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I will also run through your favorite tech stocks, because that's always useful, and let's jump straight into it, shall we?
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Let me share my screen with you here.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: For you, really, all we need is not to get a recession, and right now the market is just saying we're not getting a recession, and I see why.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: No matter who the US elects, you're going to get spending in one way or another right Either more spending from sort of government spending or tax cuts.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Essentially, the outcome is fairly similar from a Wall Street point of view.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: So if we get no recession, we basically get this outcome here, that one there, and in the 12 months after the first rate cut, we would therefore be up something like 18% on the stock market, and this is why people are getting bullish.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: It's the fundamental reason.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Just, rate cuts are good for stocks.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: They're coming.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: Whether they're coming a bit faster or a bit slower doesn't really matter all that much in the kind of 12-month timeframe.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: So bullish indeed.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: And what about small caps?
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Remember all the small caps, rally stuff, all the you know, tom Lee, it's going to go to, you know, 3 million percent up or something like that.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Well, not quite, but in election years this is a chart for in election years, the Russell seasonally tends to go up and the election is somewhere here.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Right, that is the election thingy, the bajiggy that you're about to go through, and from there you're at about what?
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: 99, call it 100.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: We go up to about 109.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: So we go up about 9% historically after an election until year end.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: This is small caps, which is again pretty good, right?
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: We looked at similar charts for the Nasdaq.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: It's actually slightly more for the S&P.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: It's pretty much the same story.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: So we're just expecting kind of everything to go up, and I think that's honestly the post-election bias.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Just buy absolutely bloody everything.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Now there is a bit of resistance, as our snooty French neighbors call it Sorry, our sophisticated Frenchies call it.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Not many tune in, I suspect, but some do, and we make fun of them.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: It's just easy, isn't it really?
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: We've got resistance and this resistance indicator is something we're going to put out on Trade Vision in the next couple of days.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: We're still fine-tuning it a little bit.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Can I spell Trade Vision?
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: No, I can't.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: There is a link down below so you don't need to Let me show you when is it here.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: It is tradevisionio and it shows you that in red line there the actual market positioning.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: That means it's hard to break through that line.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: It's a combination of all the options positions in the market for all the positions into the future, and then what happens on the other side of that trade is market makers sell.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: If we get to this level, it's a little complicated, but all you need to know it's basically resistance.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: So it's a very important line.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: At the moment it sits at 583.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: And it's done a beautiful job, hasn't it?
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: The last four days we managed to not really get through it, which is kind of its job really, and if you look at that oh yeah, I also wanted to show you this I put a little note in there for me, if you note the wedge, and the wedge looks like this.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: You see that red line I'm putting in there.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: It's not the most perfect line in the world, but it looks something like this and then we connect from down here the lows, if we may thank you Microsoft and you end up with sort of this kind of wedge scenario.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: And what happens in the wedge?
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Well, you got to break out one way or the other, the theory being you break out above good, you break out below bad.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Okay, that's basically it.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: So we're at a decision making point for the market.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: We can't go sideways for much longer.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: The trend will change.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Now, if you look at that hourly chart from yesterday, this is again literally the S&P on an hourly chart from yesterday, more than yesterday, in fact, there are more than 24 hours on this chart.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: I believe Each bar represents an hour.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: And what do you see?
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: You see that resistance line again and you might say, oh, but Felix, we broke through it.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: That's what happens.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: You tend to break through them a little bit.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: The selling kicks in and it pushes you back.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: So you kind of do this little drop here, woohoo, yay.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: And then you go sideways because the selling kicks in, selling overwhelms the buyers and we go lower.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: And then we try it again and again, selling comes in here, pushes us lower, below the resistance line, and that's how you know the resistance.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: It's doing its job.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: It's a very, very useful piece of information that works especially well on indices and the really, really big stocks that have massive trading volume behind them, and it's basically the market makers doing their thing.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: So you will know that on the resistance and there is also a support level at the bottom, it's just that it's quite low down right now, not super relevant.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: So if you want to get your paws on that next week, you know what to do.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: Right, go to tradevisionio, sign up for the thing, and there is a one-week trial to it.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: So it's a risk-free endeavor.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: If you hate it, by day seven you cancel it and you send me a fermented, I don't know tomato something in the mail.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: No, no, you let me know why you didn't get some value out of it and then I'll do our best to make it better.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: We're working a lot also on the videos and on the tutorials and stuff to make you get the most value out of this, because I think that's super important.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: But yeah, there is one more here and that is NVIDIA.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: We've also done it for NVIDIA, because incredible trading volume here and the resistance sits here at 138.90 at the moment, which has again worked insanely well the last three days.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: Right, you see that that was pretty much the high.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: It was pretty much the high here.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Yesterday was pretty much the high-ish and that also happens to be the high.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: From when was that?
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: A little while back, can I see?
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Sort of mid of June.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: So that's still the point to break through 138.90 meaningfully and hurrah, which is obviously what we're mostly gunning for.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Now I'm running something different in the coming week, the first time I've ever done this.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: If you've been on one of my webinars or something, this is a very different piece of content.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: This is it's about stocks, so not only about options or something.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: You might know, I'm an options trader, but this is about stocks and it's about stock trading, but it's also about investing, because very much the same principles apply.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: So if you are a beginner investor or even stock trader and you potentially want to get more from your trades, then come and join me for that workshop on Tuesday, 9pm Eastern time.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: And really what I'll teach you is essentially this that here was the point to buy PayPal, right, and then this here was the point to sell PayPal, and it looks very easy in hindsight, but most people have absolutely no idea how to spot it and they don't know that.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: It's incredibly predictable.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: You could have seen the breakout.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: It was a textbook breakout and it was a textbook breakdown.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: So if you'd known that, you would have bought here and you would have exited there, and right now we're repeating the same thing down there.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: So, unfortunately, what most people do they buy up here, they sell down there and they get frustrated just before it starts breaking out again.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: So let that not be you anymore.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: And here are a couple of examples PayPal this is the breakout recently.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: We're up 23%, a bit more than that by now, about 27% or so since that breakout, which is pretty sweet.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Or on this one here, finance of America I still got that trade open.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: That's up 58% in about two weeks.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Now here's another one Philip Morris.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: I still have that open too.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: That's up about 30% from its breakup down here.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: And all of these are textbook cases.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: I'll teach you how you spot them.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Rails another nice example here up 180%, or something like that.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: So come and learn that, and if you've watched my sort of pre-recorded masterclass on this, there will be some new stuff in this for sure.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: And you also get an opportunity to ask me questions.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: If you want to join a proper Q&A on this, you can.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: So, free of charge, of course, felixrensselaerorg slash workshop, part of our mission to spread the gospel of how to make money in a really easy way and how to automate the whole thing.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: So, felix friends workshop, check that out now.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: Nvidia sorry, netflix, even big, big big story just reported earnings and they brought in 5 million customers.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: And it makes me happy and sad.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Because I think watching Netflix is a way to fry your brain.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: It means I think it's a way to lull the masses into apathy, honestly and you're probably a Netflix subscriber, which means I've offended 99% of my audience, but seriously, I used to love watching that kind of stuff.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: I haven't had a TV in, I want to say, at least 15 years, probably a little bit longer than that, and I don't watch any of that.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Ross, and you know what it means.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: It means you have time in the evenings.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: It means you are going to do stuff, you're going to think about things, you're going to go out, you're going to read things.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: It's marvelous.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: But anyway, back to Netflix.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: They managed to convince 5 million people to sign up.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: We were expecting 4 million, so that's a big beat.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Sales grew 15% of 10 billion sales.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: It's really, really incredible.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: And the stock market?
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: You'd think it'd be celebrating, right?
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: You'd think it'd be.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Oh my God, that's amazing.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: No, not really.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Actually it's down about 2% as I'm recording this Now.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: It's still quite a nice run.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: We called it a buy here at that green level, at about 630 or thereabouts.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: So we're still up about $50, which is pretty good, and we've actually beaten buy and hold since the beginning of 2022 on Netflix by about 50%, which is not bad.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: So this is trade vision at work.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: So maybe check it out.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: It's been a pretty good call that one.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Let's review some of our favorite stocks then, shall we?
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: I think we should probably do that.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: So here is Netflix live and unadulterated, and down a bit.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: It's still looking okay.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: I think it's a question of sort of risk management, really, where one exits a trade like that.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: I think what I tend to do is I tend to draw lines, which tends to work rather well, so we sort of try to connect three points.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: That here would have been my line.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: So 0.1, 0.2, 0 0.3.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: That here is probably where we pair at least some of our position back.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: Right now, we're dropping below that support here.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: There is still a little bit of more support here.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, it becomes debatable whether one should be in this right now.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: The cautious a trader would have taken some profits, which is what I generally recommend is take profits, because that's what we do this for.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Let's run through some of our favorites here.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: Sweet story that buy signal here at 132 is uh, is still, I think, valid.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: We're still above the recent highs here and therefore I think it's uh.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: It's for nvidia to screw up.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: Rather, I think earnings are going to be good, which I think will be a good thing.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Uh tesla, after the uh abominable we robot event, according to the market, I think it was to be honest with you, but yeah, there is definitely some negativity around that here and again, you could have drawn a line here at the top when we're sort of starting to consolidate, which would have been something like that so that low, that low and this low and then gotten out and look where our indicator got out.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: You see that it actually got out a little in advance.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Because it's AI and it's got predictive powers, so I would have gotten out there a little bit later, did I?
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Actually, I didn't why.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: I've got pretty cheap leap options and I'm going to hold them for a little bit longer.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: Am I going to buy here?
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: No, not yet.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: We haven't really got that buy signal yet.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: We might be going sideways for ages.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: I don't want to tie up any more capital.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: But yeah, it would have been probably smart to exit there and then buy again a little bit later.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: If we look at some of our favorite other tech stocks out there, you've got Palantir.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: The sell-off is sort of flattening out here at $42, which is a pretty good place to be, so we're quite happy about that.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: And again, draw the lines.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: You get three points connect them.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: That wasn't a line, was it?
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: That was a drunk drawing a line Not the perfect line here, I must admit, but it would look something like that.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: So we're pretty close to the.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: The maybe time to take some profits, and I know a lot of the Palantir out there are the diehard.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: You know.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: Hold forever.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: It is not a religion, it is a means to make money.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Every stock is sellable at some price.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: Every stock is sellable at some price.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: I'm bullish Palantir long-term, but that doesn't mean I have to buy and hold and hold through every freaking dip, right, because it doesn't really make for a lot of fun.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: So far here looking quite sweet.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: I think that buy was called a little late there by the indicator.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: To be honest with you, we got in a little bit actually a lot earlier than that and very simply, you could have connected basically this whole sort of resistance pattern here, right, that whole kind of sideways action pattern.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: Once we broke out of that here at about $8 or so, it was a very, very clear bicycle with lots of volume and all the bells and whistles that we want.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: So therefore we definitely liked it.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: Now, what else did I miss in terms of favorite stocks here?
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: We can look at the Q's, the NASDAQ here, and you see a similar sort of wedge pattern to what I drew earlier for something like that.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: Not the most perfect wedge in the world, but you get the idea.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: It's something like that and we're breaking out a little bit to the downside here.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: So we would like to get a little bit of oomph from big tech earnings coming in next week.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: Lots of them are reporting marvelously next week Literally about 40% of the S&P reports next week in terms of values, everything that matters.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: Apple looking quite sweet.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: Sales numbers out of China are looking quite rosy surprisingly, one might add, which is definitely helping the upside here.
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: So we called a buy here at $2.29, $3 up so far.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: I'd be a little cautious because we still have to take out that high here at $2.33 and then also these two here in the same sort of range.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: So I'm a little cautious on that one.
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: Anything else, what about our sort of Mara friends and so on?
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: What about our sort of Mara friends and so on Starting to recover a little bit?
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: Is it enough?
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: Well, it depends on a little bit.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: Where you see the resistance, I kind of could make that argument that that was a breakout there, not perfect, because we still have these ones slightly above it.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: So you want to go a little bit above that here.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: And then I think there is a chance to get back into this general zone here of these guys, problem being all these buggers who bought around 20, they're going to sell, aren't they?
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: And that's a little bit of a bummer there.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: Mew, we called a buy signal yesterday, the first in a while, breaking out above its recent highs here.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: And this is kind of classic stuff, textbook stuff.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: You see that you connect that first high, the second high, the third high, you break out of it.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: Are we doing it with a lot of volume?
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: Let me have a look, by the way, if you want to sign up to that uh live workshop on how to spot these breakouts, it takes you to a page like this freeleticsfriendsorg workshop and just pop in your name there and email and sign up for it and um and and you'll.
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: You'll see it all.
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: Uh, volume not great.
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: Uh, that will be my only downside here.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: The volume is not great.
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: We want you like a lot of volume.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: Uh, this one was a little bit flat.
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: And then how far is it going to take you?
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: Well, probably not that far.
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: Probably $10 up, maybe $20 up, because you've got all this resistance over here.
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: So not the greatest buy in the world, I would argue.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: What else did we look up?
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: Mstr Took a little bit of a nosedive, some people arguing it's overvalued.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: It's had a very sweet run up, so probably time to well, definitely time to set stop losses.
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: It always is, and there is sort of that sort of trend thing going on up here, so you're breaking below that Time to take money off the table.
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: That's usually the way I look at that Coin, which is another way to play crypto, really having quite a nice little breakout here.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: But there is still that whole resistance pattern here.
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: All those buggers are bag holders.
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: From March all the way to August, Anybody who bought coin is a bag holder and therefore it's going to be quite hard to break out of this whole zone here up to sort of $240, $260.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: And I'd be a little bit careful there.
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: Robinhood very different story, very nice breakout, very, very nice breakout actually, and, I think, still partying really.
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: So that looks pretty good.
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: Bear in mind, again, it doesn't go up in a straight line, right?
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: You see that little rally here.
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: You've got a sideways consolidation.
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: It then broke out again sideways and then it broke down.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: So it would have made sense to exit there, which just screwed up my chat, didn't it?
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: Why did it do that?
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: But maybe you caught the whiff there, what I was trying to say.
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: We want to avoid these downtrends because they can really hurt us if they go deeper, because you never know, right, they could go all the way down there, in which case it really, really hurts.
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: So stop losses, my friend, or what your friends are really.
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: So there we have it, I think.
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: Banks, financials doing very nicely all around, basically, and then anybody who says, oh, you can't make money trading, well, look at the financial statements of JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley and all the banks have just reported making billions more than expected doing what Trading stocks.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: And it doesn't mean you need to be active, it doesn't mean you need to stare at a screen all day long, it doesn't mean you need to make that your job.
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: But you can just set up some smart plays based on some proven trading rules and then set up automations to make sure you've got really tight risk management.
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: And then what we do is like, once a week, make a little adjustment, takes maybe an hour or two on a Sunday, and I think we can do tremendously better and actually be a lot safer, be a lot better off than the people who are like holding through the fricking dips right, because what was the point in, say, say, you bought JP Morgan here, right?
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: What was the point in holding from 155 down to 100?
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: You lost 30% of your money.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: You felt really, really crummy for what?
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: Seven, eight months?
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: You probably gave up and sold down here and you missed the whole upwards rally, right?
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: So wouldn't it be better to exit there and then enter again here and actually make money on the way up?
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: I think it's a better way of doing it, but you judge for yourself.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: Come and join me on Tuesday evening, felixfriendsorg slash workshop and I'll teach it to you, and I wish you a glorious end to the week.
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: And I am now off and I'm going to go and look at the kitchen, actually, which I'm rather excited about.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: So some more details on that later.
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: There we are.
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: Make sure you sign up at phoenixfriendsorg slash workshop Link is down below in the description and I wish you a beautiful day learning, growing, trading and all the best.