Latest / From First Principles / Can We Stop an Asteroid? The Physics Behind NASA’s DART Mission (EP. 30)
Transcript
- 0:00Hello internet, this is your captain speaking Lester Nare joined as always by my co-host and our resident PhD Krishna Chowdhury.
- 0:09Today we have a wonderful episode we're going to do a story a research paper on planetary defense covering one of NASA's most audacious missions the DART mission.
- 0:23Spoiler alert it worked but where it gets interesting is in the how and the
- 0:29We're going to take a quick pause here to talk about a slight change to the programming.
- 0:35For many of you who have been listening to us for quite some time, you know that we do weekly episodes and the demand has just been insane for us to do more.
- 0:45So what we're going to try out here is actually doing multiple episodes a week.
- 0:51but having our episodes be focused on a single story.
- 0:54So today we're going to just be focused on the DART mission with planetary defense, but you will see our faces two more times this week with a follow-up story, and we will have the rundown be its own episode type, and I have some ideas about some game show elements to test our resident PhD.
- 1:13As always, we are going to learn about the science from the ground up today because this is From First Principles.
- 1:35So, if there is an asteroid coming to Earth, I would like to not die.
- 1:42Armageddon, deep impact?
- 1:44Yeah, all of these, I would like that not to happen.
- 1:47Okay?
- 1:48And it turns out the best way to have that happen is actually not to, like, blow it up, but to just gently nudge it out of the way.
- 1:57Gently, because, you know, it's a giant asteroid—
- 2:00You got to get a little aggressive because it's a giant asteroid.
- 2:03But at the end of the day, all we have to do is gently nudge it out of the way and maybe it'll avoid Earth.
- 2:08Okay.
- 2:09And the first time that this happened was on September 26th, 2022.
- 2:14This was NASA's double asteroid redirection test.
- 2:17I was watching it live.
- 2:19This was the DART mission.
- 2:21It collided with a moonlit of a two asteroid system.
- 2:26Okay.
- 2:27And I remember watching it live.
- 2:29You could literally see there was a little satellite that acted like a projectile, like a missile.
- 2:35And it had a camera on it.
- 2:37And it was taking a photo of the moon as it was getting closer and closer and closer.
- 2:41And when it finally hit, the other satellite took photos of it.
- 2:46It hit this moon at 14,000 miles per hour, which is about 6 kilometers per second.
- 2:52And the key result that we got immediately was that the orbit of this moonlet, the name was Dimorphos, orbiting around Didymus, the orbit of that moon around the main big asteroid—
- 3:07had reduced by 33 minutes.
- 3:10Okay.
- 3:10So it went from something like 12 hours to 11 and a half hours.
- 3:14So the contact changed the trajectory, the path, that this two-moonlit system was traveling on.
- 3:22Yeah, but...
- 3:23So the contact changed the orbit of the two-moonlit system.
- 3:27The orbit.
- 3:28That's what we could confirm.
- 3:29Okay.
- 3:30What you're saying is what this paper is about.
- 3:33I see.
- 3:33Okay, which is...
- 3:35I ran into the moon, and now the orbit has changed.
- 3:38Yes.
- 3:39But what does that do for how this moon, this two-asteroid system goes around Earth?
- 3:44Because the orbit you're talking about is locally.
- 3:47Yes, exactly.
- 3:48And getting that signal is super easy.
- 3:5030 minutes...
- 3:51Less than 12 hours.
- 3:53That's what?
- 3:53Something like a little bit less than like 5%.
- 3:55Right?
- 3:57That's a change that is doable.
- 3:59Like pretty immediately.
- 4:00Especially because we've got the DART mission in that asteroid system that's like monitoring the two going around.
- 4:07Right?
- 4:08So getting that data is very quick.
- 4:10Happened in 2022.
- 4:11We got that confirmation like within I think like a month.
- 4:14Okay.
- 4:14Okay?
- 4:15This is now what?
- 4:16Four years later?
- 4:17Yes.
- 4:17Three and a half years later.
- 4:19And now we have...
- 4:21A paper that's out in Science Advances, and it confirms that there's a measurable change in the barycenter of that two-moon system going around the sun, meaning those two asteroids now have a different orbit around the sun itself because of that crash on its moon.
- 4:39Does that make sense?
- 4:39It makes total sense.
- 4:40And I want to briefly talk about why the implications of something like this are so historical.
- 4:47You know, Earth has been around for 4 billion years.
- 4:52Life on Earth has been around for hundreds of millions of years.
- 4:55Some simple life, billions of years.
- 4:58And in the entirety of that time period...
- 5:01The life on Earth has never had control of its own destiny as it relates to celestial objects and their impact on the planet.
- 5:12So what you're suggesting is that humanity, for the first time in the four-plus billion-year history of Earth, has finally enabled itself to have agency on its cosmic destiny.
- 5:27Yeah.
- 5:27Yeah.
- 5:29based on these objects potentially coming in to impact us.
- 5:32Exactly.
- 5:32This is a very interesting story for us to understand.
- 5:34Yes, yes.
- 5:35And I just want to say a quote from the lead author of that paper.
- 5:39He said, if an asteroid is ever on its way to hitting the Earth, we can more confidently now say that we have the ability to push them around and away from Earth.
- 5:49This was by the lead author Raheel Makadia from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
- 5:54And can I just say, the news article where this quote comes from, they quote him as a planetary defense researcher.
- 6:03Okay?
- 6:03When I was in grad school, on my CV is written graduate student researcher.
- 6:09This guy can write planetary defense researcher on his CV.
- 6:14How sick is that?
- 6:15That's so awesome.
- 6:16Right?
- 6:16All right, so as you said, let's get into the history and why this is so important.
- 6:21The threat comes from these things called near-Earth objects.
- 6:24This is an animation showing all of the near-Earth objects that we've ever seen.
- 6:29The blue circle or the blue orbit in the middle, that's the Earth.
- 6:34And look at all of these dots.
- 6:36Yes.
- 6:36All of these dots are...
- 6:38are threats to us for those who are listening and not watching the pod currently there are thousands hundreds of thousands yeah of these objects in near earth orbit it's it's actually a very nauseating amount yeah yeah it's actually quite like concerning right because if you look like let's just linger on this animation for a second the the earth's orbit there's already a yes
- 7:04Then you see there's a faint line where Mars' orbit is.
- 7:07That's the red line.
- 7:08And then there's this giant belt, almost cloud of orbits.
- 7:12That's the asteroid belt in between Mars and Jupiter.
- 7:16Those are also threats, not just the ones that are near right in Earth orbit.
- 7:21But you can imagine some random gravitational anomaly.
- 7:25Jupiter pushes one of these asteroids out of the way.
- 7:28Or these two asteroids get a little bit together.
- 7:30And then they get nudged.
- 7:32Into the inner solar system.
- 7:34Exactly.
- 7:34It's like in a car accident.
- 7:36You're changing lanes and you sideswipe the car next to you.
- 7:39Yeah.
- 7:39And then they're now sideswiping the car next to them.
- 7:41Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- 7:41And then there's an 18-wheeler behind.
- 7:43Like, it can get bad really fast.
- 7:45Really fast.
- 7:46Right?
- 7:46Similar to the Kessler effect when a satellite crashes in orbit.
- 7:51And it basically creates catastrophic failure for everything because there's just these little things flying around.
- 7:57Yeah.
- 7:57And it's going to impact everything.
- 7:58Yeah, exactly.
- 7:59And any momentum transfer can be really bad.
- 8:01Yes.
- 8:01Right.
- 8:01And Hollywood is obviously obsessed with this.
- 8:03We've got, as you were mentioning, Armageddon, Deep Impact.
- 8:08I can't think of many more.
- 8:09Oh, Don't Look Up is a big one.
- 8:11That's the most recent one.
- 8:12That was more about climate change.
- 8:13Yes.
- 8:14But it was still like the metaphor was really funny.
- 8:16And at the end of the day, the literal movie is about a comet that is coming into Earth.
- 8:21And nobody believes the scientists.
- 8:23So...
- 8:24This has actually happened in human recorded history.
- 8:271908 was the Tunguska event in Siberia.
- 8:31It was a 50 to 80 meter object and it burst 10 miles above the surface.
- 8:37So it didn't even make contact with the earth.
- 8:40It exploded because it was heated up by so much.
- 8:43And it flattened 30 million trees over hundreds of kilometers squared.
- 8:47Fortunately, it was in the middle of nowhere in Siberia.
- 8:50But imagine if that happened on a population center.
- 8:53Yeah.
- 8:53Yeah.
- 8:54it would be way, way worse than Hiroshima and Nagasaki, right?
- 8:58Yes.
- 8:58In 1980, there was the Alvarez hypothesis, which was linking the Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction, which is the extinction of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago.
- 9:10It linked that to a cosmic impact.
- 9:13In 1991, the Chiksa Club crater was discovered in the Yucatan Peninsula because a bunch of oil companies were...
- 9:23charting the gravity the specific gravity around the yucatan peninsula looking for oil right and so in order to look for oil what you want to look for is like low density packets under the earth's crust and one of the best ways to do that is to literally just measure the acceleration due to gravity the thing that we learn in high school being 9.8 meters per second squared well if you
- 9:50The little tiny deviations of that acceleration due to gravity, if it's a little less than normal here versus somewhere else, that could mean that there's a low-density packet underneath the ground, which is why it's not pulling on whatever object that you're using to measure that acceleration.
- 10:05So oil companies were doing that.
- 10:07They actually found a ring of high density.
- 10:10Oh.
- 10:11And that ring was the size of the Yucatan Peninsula.
- 10:15And it was this primordial crater from 66 million years ago.
- 10:18I have one clarifying question.
- 10:19When you mentioned like low-density pocket, what you're referring to is like a lake of oil under the ground.
- 10:26Yes, exactly.
- 10:27Okay.
- 10:27Yeah, yeah.
- 10:28Instead of rock.
- 10:28Instead of rock because the oil is less dense than rock.
- 10:32And so what they're looking for is...
- 10:34An underground lake of oil.
- 10:36Exactly, yeah.
- 10:36And that underground lake of oil would decrease the effect of gravity in that location.
- 10:41So if you were to measure gravity very, very precisely, you'd be able to chart out where the oil is.
- 10:46That makes sense.
- 10:46This is also why science is so important to capitalism.
- 10:50Yeah.
- 10:50Because the alpha matters.
- 10:52The alpha matters.
- 10:54And like the closer you get to this precision, the more you can unlock, you know?
- 10:59Mm-hmm.
- 11:00And then finally in 2013, there was the Chelybinsk meteor, which was a 20-meter object.
- 11:06Yes.
- 11:07Over 1,000 injuries.
- 11:08Yes.
- 11:08It happened also over Russia.
- 11:09Yes.
- 11:11And this was one that was very – there was video – because we had media and technology and devices, it's probably the most prominent atmospheric, large object atmospheric breakup explosion.
- 11:25Yeah.
- 11:26And, you know, over a thousand inches.
- 11:28I mean, it was a lot.
- 11:29It was a lot.
- 11:30It was a lot.
- 11:30A lot of broken windows and things like that.
- 11:33One of the reasons why we have so much footage on that is because Russians...
- 11:38The Russians love having dash cams.
- 11:40Yeah, yeah.
- 11:40Because, I don't know, I mean, I don't want to say anything.
- 11:44Comment in the thread if you know the reason why that's true.
- 11:47Yeah, yeah.
- 11:48But anyways, Russians love having dash cams.
- 11:50And so there's so much dash cam footage of the meteor just like coming down, right?
- 11:54It's pretty incredible.
- 11:55I want to just reemphasize that that 2013 meteor was only 20 meters.
- 12:00Yeah.
- 12:01Yeah.
- 12:03In, I guess, diameter.
- 12:05Yeah.
- 12:06It's not a super large object.
- 12:08No, no, no.
- 12:09It's like the size of a house.
- 12:10The force and the impact.
- 12:13Because the devastation was pretty severe.
- 12:17Yeah.
- 12:17Right.
- 12:18So, in any event.
- 12:19So our best strategy when it comes to planetary defense is actually to nudge it.
- 12:25We want to give it some momentum, and then we want to get out of the way.
- 12:28And hopefully that thing gets out of the way, right?
- 12:31Because we've nudged it, and it just avoids Earth.
- 12:34It keeps going around the sun, but now its orbit has changed a little bit.
- 12:38In the same analogy of the car accident, like before, imagine you're in a James Bond movie, and James Bond is in a car in the left lane, and the love interest in that movie is handcuffed to the steering wheel in the car in the right lane, and they're both going 90 miles an hour down a road, and the right car is about to hit something.
- 12:55He's like, well, let me just bump it out of the way, because that'll change how it's driving out of the way of about to hit this brick wall that's in front of us, just as like a grounded analogy.
- 13:05Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- 13:06Is this one of the dream fantasies of your...
- 13:11Yeah, he had a lot of detail in that one, guys.
- 13:15Yeah, but that's exactly right.
- 13:16We want to just nudge it, get it out of the way.
- 13:19In 2022, that was the DART mission.
- 13:22It was the first intentional deflection.
- 13:24It was actually launched out of Vandenberg in 2013, which is right down the street of Southern California.
- 13:30It went with the Earth to meet up with this double asteroid system.
- 13:33So this double asteroid system, which is Didymus and Dimorphos, so
- 13:39We can look at an animation of their orbits, right?
- 13:41The green is the double asteroid system.
- 13:44Yes.
- 13:44The teal is Earth.
- 13:46Yes.
- 13:46And the pink is what we're seeing of the our like what you might call it.
- 13:55The dark mission.
- 13:56The dark mission.
- 13:56Sorry.
- 13:57So let me just recap.
- 13:58The blue is Earth.
- 13:59Yes.
- 14:00Yes.
- 14:00The DART mission comes out in pink from Earth.
- 14:03It's following Earth, as you can see.
- 14:05It's just leading it a little bit.
- 14:06Yes, yes.
- 14:07And the green double asteroid system that we're trying to hit is going to come meet up with us.
- 14:11Yes.
- 14:11The double asteroid system is actually in near-Earth orbit.
- 14:14And there you go.
- 14:15Yep.
- 14:15That's when the impact happens.
- 14:17You can tell that the impact is happening pretty close to Earth.
- 14:20Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- 14:21are moving together and then the impact happens here but earth is pretty close yes that is by design because what we want to do is we want to have all of the observatories on earth looking at this thing to get as much data as possible the the impact was like six million miles which in the grand scheme of things is not is not that far away
- 14:41I want to just pull this back up really quick, this animation, because I think what's so interesting is when you look at where it launches from, the launch of DART happened on the opposite side.
- 14:54It first left Earth on the opposite side of the sun from where the asteroid was coming in.
- 15:01And it did almost a three-quarters orbit.
- 15:04Yeah.
- 15:05Prior to contact.
- 15:07And I just want to.
- 15:08The distance.
- 15:11Look if I'm trying to throw a paper ball.
- 15:14A paper towel ball.
- 15:16Into the trash can.
- 15:17From my desk.
- 15:18I'm maybe going to hit it six times out of ten.
- 15:21We're trying to send this thing in an orbit.
- 15:24Around the sun.
- 15:25Around the sun.
- 15:26With the earth.
- 15:26With the earth.
- 15:27Millions of miles.
- 15:28Yeah.
- 15:30And it made direct contact.
- 15:32I just want to really emphasize the level of precision that is required to...
- 15:38because that's not the point of this this story per se it's the second piece yeah but that initial part in and of itself yeah is an exceptional piece of just both the engineering yeah math and the operational planning to execute on yeah i mean and nasa is just incredible at doing this kind of stuff um and you as you mentioned right like the thing gets released it makes almost full circle so it's almost
- 16:00Almost like if it got launched in...
- 16:03I wish I knew the exact date that it got launched, right?
- 16:06But if it got launched somewhere, it's going to almost do a full year around, right?
- 16:11Yes.
- 16:12Before actually getting there.
- 16:13Pretty incredible.
- 16:15So...
- 16:17That's what we want to do, right?
- 16:18We want to have it impact very close, and then we want to have all of the observatories watch this impact happen.
- 16:25Yes.
- 16:25Right?
- 16:26Yes.
- 16:26Yeah.
- 16:27Because we don't have a lot of instruments deeper in space.
- 16:30And so the best way we can capture data is when it's as close to our instruments as possible.
- 16:35That's right.
- 16:36Yeah, that's right.
- 16:37And before we move on...
- 16:39Yes.
- 16:39Yes.
- 16:39Let's do some housekeeping.
- 16:40Yes.
- 16:41So housekeeping notes.
- 16:42Again, we are testing our new format two to three episodes a week.
- 16:47Each episode, when it's a research paper or a deep dive, is going to be fully focused just on that topic matter.
- 16:54We are also going to do the rundown as its own standalone episode.
- 17:00One, so we can have a little bit of fun, talk about a variety of things, a little grab bag.
- 17:04Think about it like the weekend update on SNL.
- 17:08And I am determined to make a science game show out of this with Krishna as our recurring contestant, which you can't see from the current angle.
- 17:17He's getting a little bit of indigestion at the thought of that.
- 17:19But if you are intrigued by the concept or you're a longtime listener, as you know, we are a victim like we all are to the billionaire algorithm.
- 17:30So a like, follow, share, subscribe is super valuable for us to help get the show to more people.
- 17:38And if you are really passionate about what we're doing, it really fills your cup every day, and you want to find a way to support us, we do have our donation portal at ffppod.com backslash donate.
- 18:08And I believe that is the conclusion of our show notes this week.
- 18:13Yeah, one more thing, just from me on a personal end.
- 18:16So for those listening, if anyone is going to APS, the Global Summit meeting in Denver, that's the American Physical Society Global Summit in Denver this coming week, so the week of this event.
- 18:28podcast release on thursday i'm giving a talk so you know if you're going just look me up on the schedule and come check out my talk on thursday i'm still you know doing doing stuff and and talking to people about all the research that i'm doing and if you want to know about the research that he's doing which is very interesting make sure if you're at aps you go see it and embarrass krishna by asking for an autograph in front of all the scientists and academics
- 18:57Okay, let's get back to the story, please.
- 19:00All right.
- 19:01The target of the DART mission was the Didymus Dimorphous Binary System.
- 19:06Just to show how the two asteroids compare, the moon, the moonlet that we were trying to target, is a bit bigger.
- 19:13It's in between the Statue of Liberty and the Eiffel Tower in terms of how big it is.
- 19:18Didymus is like Burj Khalifa type in terms of how big it is, like the diameter.
- 19:24And what we're trying to kamikaze is the moonlet.
- 19:26Yes, the small one.
- 19:28The little small one.
- 19:29Yep.
- 19:29Okay?
- 19:32During the mission, actually, the main dart probe, the satellite, actually stood behind to watch this unfold.
- 19:42And it let out a little kamikaze satellite drone.
- 19:48Fox 1, go.
- 19:49Yeah, exactly.
- 19:50And so this guy's job was to go and bomb.
- 19:56Yes.
- 19:56Yes.
- 19:57Dimorphous.
- 19:58Let's say make contact.
- 20:00Make contact.
- 20:01Sorry.
- 20:02Yeah.
- 20:02In today's world, let's rephrase that.
- 20:05We're trying to make contact with dimorphous.
- 20:07Yes.
- 20:07And the other, the main ship, the mothership, is watching this all in action because it wants to see what is the effect of that contact on the system.
- 20:16Why binary?
- 20:17It's because we want rapid measurement of deflection, right?
- 20:20Right.
- 20:22The orbit is going one way.
- 20:23We want to see if it's slowed down or sped up.
- 20:26Okay, whatever.
- 20:27And with a dual orbit system, it is easier to ascertain the answer to that than a single object moving.
- 20:35Yes, exactly.
- 20:36And here's why.
- 20:37Okay.
- 20:37The mutual orbit velocity of Dimorphos and Didymus is about 17 centimeters per second.
- 20:43Okay.
- 20:43Okay.
- 20:44Which means that...
- 20:46If we were to impact some momentum, 17 centimeters per second, even for something as large as a rock, a mountain, let's say, I can reasonably try and discern some change because I'm going at it at 6 kilometers per second.
- 21:01So reasonably, some of my momentum is going to get transferred, and then I'm going to be able to see a change.
- 21:06And they were able to see a change.
- 21:08They saw that the mutual orbit period was...
- 21:12altered by 33 meters.
- 21:14And this is something that we can rapidly measure.
- 21:16The orbit got smaller.
- 21:17It got shorter by 33 meters.
- 21:20And the DART system, which is monitoring this, can calculate that, measure it, no problem.
- 21:27Makes total sense.
- 21:28We sent up an observer and a probe to make contact.
- 21:33The initial data point that was going to be captured is, is the local orbit going to change from 17 centimeters per second to something else?
- 21:42Because by making contact, going back to our car analogy, if you're in a two-lane highway and you're one car and you swerve to the right and make contact with the other car, your momentum in part will be transferred to that other car.
- 21:56Which is why then you have to see the driving scenes where they're like, oh.
- 21:59Yeah, exactly.
- 22:00To counteract the transfer of momentum.
- 22:03Yeah, and that's why the double system matters, right?
- 22:05Because this is a small enough system where I can make that change discernible.
- 22:1233 minutes out of 12 hours, something I can easily measure now, right?
- 22:16That makes sense.
- 22:17When it comes to the big thing, now let's think about the big thing.
- 22:20There's the big system that's moving around the sun.
- 22:23Yes.
- 22:23That thing is moving at 23 kilometers per second, okay?
- 22:27Mm-hmm.
- 22:28The change that my momentum is going to cause is going to be less than a millimeter per second.
- 22:34That's way harder to measure.
- 22:36Yeah.
- 22:36And that is what this paper is doing.
- 22:38I see.
- 22:39This paper is measuring the big one.
- 22:41So let's get into some of the physics that we were talking about, right?
- 22:43Okay.
- 22:43Okay.
- 22:45We've got the kinetic impactor, which is this idea of a sort of satellite drone going in, making contact, and its momentum getting transferred.
- 22:54Now, it's not that simple because it's not a simple momentum conservation undergrad problem, okay?
- 23:00Okay.
- 23:01It turns out that...
- 23:03When I go and make this contact at high velocity at 6 kilometers per second to this little moon, that's going to generate shock waves.
- 23:11So the asteroid is going to ring a little bit.
- 23:14There's going to be an impact crater.
- 23:15And there's also going to be massive ejecta that is flying the opposite direction.
- 23:19So imagine my hand is the moon.
- 23:22I make contact.
- 23:23There's going to be ejecta flying this way.
- 23:25It's almost like another little rocket impulse that's going the opposite direction.
- 23:30So what I'm going to get is something called momentum enhancement.
- 23:34The amount of momentum that gets transferred is not just how much I went in with, but also how much that it threw out.
- 23:41Yes.
- 23:41Right?
- 23:42Yes.
- 23:42And so there's this beta factor called momentum enhancement factor.
- 23:46And that's the ratio of the total momentum that was transferred to the target.
- 23:50Divided by the total momentum that I had.
- 23:54If beta is greater than one, that means that I've actually impacted more momentum than I originally had because the original object has pushed out a bunch of debris in the opposite direction.
- 24:05Does that make sense?
- 24:06Yeah.
- 24:07So what we're saying is...
- 24:09We have an object.
- 24:10Our object's coming in to make contact with something.
- 24:12This actually dovetails with the panspermia story we talked about in our last episode about impacts.
- 24:17Yeah.
- 24:18That there's ejecta.
- 24:19Yeah.
- 24:20And the velocity by which you hit something can shoot that stuff very, very far.
- 24:24Very, very fast.
- 24:24And can potentially spread life.
- 24:25But what we're saying here is the amount of stuff that gets ejected out.
- 24:30almost creates this additional push in the direction you were already going.
- 24:34Yes.
- 24:35In addition to the amount of push that you individually as the object was giving.
- 24:38Yes.
- 24:39And that's that enhancement.
- 24:40And that's the enhancement.
- 24:41Right.
- 24:41Yes.
- 24:41And so it's really important for us to calculate what this enhancement is because if –
- 24:46God forbid there's an asteroid coming for us.
- 24:48Yes.
- 24:49Knowing this value of beta is going to be instrumental for figuring out how fast do I need to nudge it, right?
- 24:55Yes.
- 24:56How big of the drone does the satellite need to be in order to make contact?
- 25:02How much momentum am I trying to put in there?
- 25:04Because the momentum transfer is not just what I'm putting in initially, but it's this beta factor.
- 25:08Multiplied by the initial momentum.
- 25:10So the idea here is when Morgan Freeman is in the classified room talking and someone says, we have an Ellie, an extinction level event, because this rock is coming.
- 25:23And they're saying, okay, what options do we have?
- 25:26NASA would be able to come into the room and say, because we had our DART mission, where we were able to get real-world data about what the momentum enhancement factor is, we know that because this trajectory is X, Y, or Z, we're going to need to send this amount of payload at this speed because the math is mathing.
- 25:49Exactly.
- 25:50And now we have all the parameters to make that math math.
- 25:53Right.
- 25:53Right.
- 25:53Okay.
- 25:54Okay.
- 25:56With the DART mission, we got a local version of beta, right?
- 26:00Yes.
- 26:01But let's do a little lesson in undergrad physics.
- 26:03Okay.
- 26:03We're going to talk about systems and what are their components.
- 26:08Okay.
- 26:09Whenever we do undergrad physics, we're always trying to think of what is the system that is isolated from the environment that we're trying to work with.
- 26:17For example, the Earth-Sun-Moon system.
- 26:20Yes.
- 26:21There's three bodies, right?
- 26:23When we think about, like...
- 26:26you know, shooting something off Earth, or we think about just tides, for example.
- 26:31Actually, tides is a bad idea because we need both the sun and the moon.
- 26:34Sure.
- 26:34But if there's stuff that's local to the Earth and the moon, we don't really need to worry about the sun too much.
- 26:40Okay.
- 26:41Okay?
- 26:41We can have momentum transfer in between the Earth and the moon, and we'll be fine.
- 26:45Would satellite stuff be an example of that?
- 26:48Yeah, satellite stuff would kind of be an example of that because, like, the sun is kind of far away.
- 26:52It's, like, really big, but it's still, like...
- 26:56It doesn't come into the equation, or it comes into the equation in another way.
- 27:01The idea is that there's granular levels of how we want to describe a physics problem, right?
- 27:09And my point here is...
- 27:13When the local measurement was made, when we figured out, oh, the orbit decreased by 30 minutes between the two of them, what we really did was figure out a local beta.
- 27:25We figured out a local momentum transfer that happened because of the moon and how much escaped the little moon's gravity, right?
- 27:42in relation to the big Didymus.
- 27:44Yes.
- 27:45So Dimorphos is now speeding up.
- 27:47Mm-hmm.
- 27:48In relation...
- 27:49In relation to Didymus.
- 27:50Right.
- 27:51What we really care about when it comes to planetary defense is the sun binary system.
- 27:57Mm-hmm.
- 27:58What we care about is the heliocentric momentum enhancement factor, not the center of mass frame momentum enhancement factor.
- 28:06Here what we're looking at is...
- 28:09from earth the impact on didymus okay okay and what you can see is you don't even resolve the binary system it looks like a single dot yes but we didn't hit the main dot we hit the moon and yet there's all this ejecta yeah that came out yes all of that ejecta that came out has escaped the binary system that ejecta not only escaped the moon
- 28:35the main Didymus, big asteroid, couldn't even keep it together.
- 28:40So all of that ejecta escaped the moon and the big asteroid and has gone out into outer space, which means that there is a momentum enhancement factor on the entire system as a whole.
- 28:52It's a really nice sort of little undergrad problem on conservation of energy, right?
- 28:57Which is this idea that even though I only hit the moon, I'm actually changing the trajectory of the entire moon
- 29:04Planet or moon asteroid system.
- 29:07I didn't touch the asteroid.
- 29:08Yes.
- 29:09But the asteroid's orbit has been changed because I hit its moon.
- 29:13So as maybe a pop culture reference point, let me know if this actually tracks with what you're saying.
- 29:18There's a famous, not a famous, there's a movie that came out maybe in the last two, three years called Moonfall.
- 29:24Okay.
- 29:24And the moon...
- 29:27Oh, dude.
- 29:28Yeah, I know this one.
- 29:29And so the point is, even though the moon had yet to make contact with Earth, the simple fact that it moved from its existing orbital position around the Earth to getting closer totally disrupted a variety of things in Earth because the tides changed and the proximity.
- 29:49So it's like a local movement.
- 29:51It's like local, but it had this larger impact even though it's maybe not the right analogy.
- 29:57Okay.
- 29:58So I want to take that a step further because in that one, what you're talking about is local changes again.
- 30:03Oh, that's what I'm still talking about.
- 30:04What I'm saying here is like suppose something hit the moon, which caused it to fall.
- 30:08Yes.
- 30:09Right?
- 30:09Right.
- 30:10there would be an energy transfer into the moon.
- 30:12Yes.
- 30:13Right?
- 30:13So looking from Earth's perspective, the moon would gain some energy, let's say.
- 30:18Now looking from an alien perspective that looks at the Earth and moon system as a single system, there would be a change in energy in that entire system.
- 30:25Both the Earth and the moon would gain some energy.
- 30:28So both that system as a whole would change its trajectory around the sun.
- 30:33That's the idea.
- 30:34That's the idea.
- 30:35Depending on how granular you make your system...
- 30:38At the end of the day, conservation of energy and conservation of momentum are paramount.
- 30:43Yes.
- 30:43So if the momentum was transferred to the moon, it'll also be transferred to the earth-moon system.
- 30:48Yes.
- 30:49Which means that the earth-moon system moving around the sun is going to change.
- 30:53That's what's happening here.
- 30:54That makes sense.
- 30:55That's the key that I need everyone to try to sort of internalize.
- 30:58Yes.
- 30:59Which is conservation of energy and momentum is true regardless of the size of your system.
- 31:04Yeah, right.
- 31:05At whatever level or layer you're observing the system, a change of momentum in one of those layers will transcend across all of the downstream or upstream.
- 31:19I don't know which direction it is either.
- 31:22But one of those two.
- 31:23Yeah, you get exactly what I'm saying, right?
- 31:25Yes, yes.
- 31:26And so...
- 31:27If that ejecta is escaping the combined gravity of Didymus and Dimorphos, then it's going to change the trajectory of the entire system.
- 31:36I see now.
- 31:37I need to figure out a beta for the entire system.
- 31:41Not just what I had figured out before, which is just the little moon.
- 31:45Around...
- 31:46This.
- 31:47Yes.
- 31:48That makes sense.
- 31:49Because ultimately, from a planetary defense perspective... That's what matters.
- 31:52You care about the whole system.
- 31:53Yeah.
- 31:54Yeah.
- 31:54Yeah.
- 31:54That's what matters.
- 31:55And being able to change the whole system.
- 31:57The whole system.
- 31:57But in order to do so, you need to understand the component parts necessary to be able to impart that level of change on the whole system.
- 32:06Exactly.
- 32:06Yeah.
- 32:07And to tell you just how hard that is to do...
- 32:10Right.
- 32:10Right.
- 32:11The heliocentric velocity, this is something that I covered a little bit earlier.
- 32:15The system moves at 23 kilometers per second.
- 32:18And I'm trying to detect...
- 32:20I'm trying to detect a change that is less than one millimeter per second.
- 32:26This thing is moving at 26 kilometers per second.
- 32:29And I need... 23.
- 32:31Sorry, yeah, 23 kilometers per second.
- 32:34This thing is moving at 23 kilometers per second.
- 32:36Yes.
- 32:36And that velocity is going to change by a millimeter per second.
- 32:41Actually, less.
- 32:42Does that make sense?
- 32:43That's several orders of magnitude.
- 32:45A millimeter is a thousandth of a meter, which is a thousandth of a kilometer.
- 32:48So this is...
- 32:49About 10 millionth.
- 32:51Yeah.
- 32:52One part in 10 million.
- 32:53Yeah.
- 32:53Is what I'm trying to sense.
- 32:54Yeah.
- 32:55Or an asteroid that is millions of miles away.
- 32:59we like to say this is non-trivial.
- 33:01This is extremely non-trivial.
- 33:03Right?
- 33:05To make that measurement, this is another lesson in, again, some of our favorite topics on the podcast, precision measurement.
- 33:11Right.
- 33:11That's such a key... We have a toolbox in science with a hammer, food driver.
- 33:17Some tools are more useful than others.
- 33:19Some tools you use all the time.
- 33:20Like a hammer, there's a lot of things you can do with a hammer.
- 33:23Lasers is the thing in physics.
- 33:25Put a laser in it.
- 33:26Yeah, whatever.
- 33:27Whatever.
- 33:29But I think, again, measurement, it's not – measurement is a whole craft in and of itself with a level of density of complexity and expertise necessary to be able to do so in a robust enough way.
- 33:44Yeah.
- 33:45And this is a measurement challenge.
- 33:47Speaking of measurement challenges, in our first nine minutes of our appearance on the Dave Chang show,
- 33:55show which is on netflix check it out oh yeah spent on the double slit experiment which is a measurement problem yeah that is a measurement problem that completely caught me off guard because like we just got there and he's like what about the mit paper i'm like that was like months ago what what is going on i can't believe he like watched that one like that that's he's
- 34:17He's quite sharp.
- 34:18Yeah.
- 34:18He remembered so much.
- 34:20He's quite sharp on that.
- 34:21That was really cool.
- 34:22But the measurement problem.
- 34:23Measurement problem.
- 34:24And this is where this particular paper comes in.
- 34:26It's measuring this unmeasurable one millimeter per second, actually a lot less, change in a 23 kilometer per second object.
- 34:35That is millions of miles away.
- 34:37And this was a paper that came out in Science Advances, Direct Detection of an Asteroid's Heliocentric Deflection.
- 34:44Okay?
- 34:45The target change that they measured was 11 microns per second.
- 34:50Jesus.
- 34:50Okay?
- 34:51Out of 26 kilometers per second.
- 34:54Jesus.
- 34:55And what this means, to just give you a sense of scale...
- 34:58Yes.
- 34:59So that asteroid system goes around the Earth every 770 days, so that's about two years.
- 35:05And this tiny change in velocity means that the two years...
- 35:12Of orbit has been shortened by 0.15 seconds.
- 35:16Oh, my goodness.
- 35:18Okay.
- 35:18So a year on that asteroid is now shorter by 0.15 seconds because we crashed into the moon.
- 35:26That's incredible.
- 35:27And so there's sort of two things about this, which is interesting.
- 35:30One is what an exceptional job we've done to be able to measure such a small-scale change.
- 35:37And that's what we're going to get into next.
- 35:39And then the second piece is now we then have a reference point to be able to say, how much do we need to scale up?
- 35:46Because we just had a small little thing.
- 35:48We didn't send a big old because also getting payloads into space is expensive and costs money.
- 35:52And we don't like to spend too much money now on fundamental science stuff.
- 35:57But now you could go to the joint chiefs and say, we're going to need a hundred thousand megaton X. Yeah.
- 36:03Yeah.
- 36:03In order to get the level of momentum change.
- 36:05Yeah.
- 36:05But we just have a baseline now.
- 36:07Yeah.
- 36:07We have the numbers now.
- 36:09Right.
- 36:09Right?
- 36:10So in order to make that detection, right, so 11 microns per second is the difference between before and after, before the impact and after the impact.
- 36:20Mm-hmm.
- 36:21Before the impact, it was going at about 23 kilometers per second.
- 36:23Mm-hmm.
- 36:25Right?
- 36:26And after the impact, it's still going at 23 kilometers per second.
- 36:28This is like in the hypersonic velocity.
- 36:30No, this is not even hypersonic.
- 36:32This is like way, way, way.
- 36:35Okay, way.
- 36:36Yeah.
- 36:36Like the speed of sound is 343 meters per second.
- 36:39Okay.
- 36:40So 0.3 meters per second.
- 36:42Okay.
- 36:42Okay?
- 36:43This thing is 23.
- 36:44So that's what?
- 36:46Three times the way.
- 36:4860 times.
- 36:49About 60 times the speed.
- 36:50of sound okay hypersonic is five yeah so five and we're happy so we're in uap land right yeah yeah we're we're most likely in uap land here's the idea right in order to measure that change of 11 microns per second what i need to do is have that precision on the before and after before we get into the after mm-hmm
- 37:12Right.
- 37:12Like if I were to say if I were to measure something like, oh, the speed of the car, like imagine I'm a cop on the on the on the highway and the guy is going at 70 kilometers per second.
- 37:23And then I say, oh, he decreased his he decreased his speed by point zero zero zero three kilometers per second.
- 37:33Well, I'd need to know what the initial thing was, right?
- 37:35Otherwise, like, how do you—I could just be going like 71.
- 37:38If you said 70, that's only one significant figure.
- 37:41For those students in science, that means it could be 71 or 69 or 68, right?
- 37:46So we need to know the before and after equally well in order to make that subtraction.
- 37:50That's a really good point.
- 37:51We don't have, like, the tools in physics where I can, like, do destructive interference where I don't actually need to know the answer because the answer cancels out.
- 37:59No, we're not doing any fancy.
- 38:01We just need to know what the number is and then do subtraction.
- 38:04So the point being we need to measure it before we do anything.
- 38:08Yeah.
- 38:09And that measurement needs to be very, very good.
- 38:11It's very, very precise.
- 38:12Down to the micrometer level.
- 38:14Precise.
- 38:14Yes.
- 38:15Yes.
- 38:16The way they did that was, so this system, Didymos and Dimorphos, has approached Earth over the past 29 years.
- 38:23And we have massive radio telescopes that have bounced microwave signals off this thing.
- 38:27And we can now fit the orbit with a simulator, like a small body simulator, and JPL's Comet and Asteroid Orbit Determination Program.
- 38:37And from that, we can figure out what was the before velocity.
- 38:41Because we have this historical data that has captured...
- 38:45Pictures over time?
- 38:46Yeah, over 29 years.
- 38:48So you're capturing the movement even though the picture is static.
- 38:52Exactly.
- 38:52And it's not just pictures.
- 38:53It's also radar.
- 38:54Okay.
- 38:55Got it.
- 38:55Because we can beam it and it'll come back.
- 38:57So it'll give us a distance at least from Earth.
- 38:59Yes.
- 38:59And then the beam will also get blue shifted.
- 39:03Yes.
- 39:03Because the guy is either coming away from us or like...
- 39:06If it's moving away, then it'll be red shifted.
- 39:08If it's moving towards us, the beam that bounces back will be blue shifted.
- 39:12And we can measure that difference in frequency to figure out the velocity.
- 39:15You do this over multiple...
- 39:17years 29 years and you get a really nice right um number and it and that's the before and this is like we basically have a uh it's like a when you go on a run on an app like whatever strava or whatever and you get the little trail and it shows like where you've run before it's like we have that very precise very precisely the movement of this yeah over time over 29 years it's been doing the same thing right over and over again
- 39:42Okay, so now, how do we get after?
- 39:45Because it's only been three years.
- 39:46We've only got three years, not 29, in order to gather this data.
- 39:49So there's two ways to do it.
- 39:50One is through radio astronomy.
- 39:52Astrometry, which is the same thing that I was saying earlier.
- 39:56So radio astrometry is simply you...
- 39:59use radar to bounce a microwave signal there and back.
- 40:02They actually use the Goldstone solar system radar, which is part of JPL's deep space network.
- 40:08This is actually whenever we go to Mammoth.
- 40:10Yeah.
- 40:11You know, next time when we go, we should like just pull over.
- 40:14Yeah.
- 40:14And I don't think we can get in because it's like security or whatever.
- 40:17Hey, let us in.
- 40:18It's still like next time we go, I'll point out the radio dishes to you.
- 40:21Yeah.
- 40:22Yeah.
- 40:23So we use that.
- 40:25And from that, we can get the time delay.
- 40:27So that'll tell us within tens of meters what the position is.
- 40:30We get multiple positions.
- 40:31Then we can calculate the momenta.
- 40:33And also the fact that the signal is red shifted or blue shifted, that Doppler shift is going to give us some idea about velocity.
- 40:40But over three years, it's not going to give us enough of that error bar going down.
- 40:44It's going to be part of it.
- 40:45But we need something else.
- 40:47And this is where something very cool comes in.
- 40:49It's called stellar occultations.
- 40:51Okay.
- 40:51The idea is the asteroid is going to pass in front of stars in the night sky.
- 40:55No way.
- 40:55And it's going to eclipse stars.
- 40:57No way.
- 40:58And so we can measure.
- 40:59Whenever it eclipses stars, the star is going to blink.
- 41:03And we know the star doesn't actually blink.
- 41:05Right?
- 41:07The star has a constant brightness.
- 41:08So when it, like, goes down and up, and we know where it's going to be.
- 41:12So we're like, dude, this thing is going to move in front of that star.
- 41:15Yeah.
- 41:16Like, around this time.
- 41:17Yeah.
- 41:18So we can have volunteer astronomers.
- 41:20And that's what I found very cool about this story.
- 41:22There were volunteer astronomers that went out.
- 41:25Yes.
- 41:25Yes.
- 41:27And tried to capture these stellar occultations.
- 41:29We're effectively trying to capture the shadow of this asteroid passing in front of a star in the night sky.
- 41:37The shadow is only about a kilometer wide.
- 41:42Okay, so you need very precise, like, timing of, like, where you need to be in order to capture it.
- 41:48And also space.
- 41:50And one thing that I found really cool was there was a guy, volunteer again, he observed two of these occultations.
- 41:57He drove two days each way in the Australian outback in order to get this data.
- 42:03That's... Like, shout out to this Kangaroo Jack guy, dude.
- 42:07The Aussies.
- 42:08Aussie, Aussie, Aussie.
- 42:09Yeah, dude.
- 42:11It's pretty awesome.
- 42:12Yeah.
- 42:12But this is this is so interesting, again, because sometimes, you know, there's a lot of astrophotographers, I guess, that are very popular now on socials and stuff like that.
- 42:23And it's a real craft in and of itself.
- 42:25Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- 42:26This guy had to know where to point.
- 42:27Exactly.
- 42:28Like how to get the data.
- 42:29Exactly.
- 42:30Exactly where to be, because you've got a one kilometer radius that you need to you need to get this thing.
- 42:35And you can not only do it for the joys of being curious about the universe around us, but also be a participant and a contributor into sort of institutional research.
- 42:45Yeah, dude.
- 42:46I think he should put planetary defense researcher on his CV, right?
- 42:51Whatever he's doing in the Australian Outback, that should be part of his CV.
- 42:56So with this international network, they captured 22 distinct occultations between October 2022 and March 2025.
- 43:02Okay.
- 43:04And that is where they got all of their data to where they can say 11 micrometers per second is the change in the velocity of this asteroid.
- 43:12Because now we have like another reference point, another reference frame by which to like understand.
- 43:17Because we have the historical data set from the 29 years.
- 43:19Yeah, and that's the before.
- 43:20And we need an after.
- 43:21And we need an after.
- 43:22And so basically the stars that are behind this passing in between us –
- 43:31create a reference point for us to measure against.
- 43:34Yes.
- 43:35And that allows us to get the after because we have such a precise understanding of the stars and their positions.
- 43:41And their positions.
- 43:42So it's almost like they're a ruler.
- 43:43Yeah.
- 43:43The stars become a ruler by which we're measuring.
- 43:45And it's extremely precise.
- 43:47And that's how you get that precision in such a short time.
- 43:50Yeah.
- 43:50If we just waited for Goldstone radar to keep going, we'd have to wait for it to come back.
- 43:55And then like, you know, that's just going to take forever.
- 43:57That makes so much sense.
- 44:01astronomical data, right?
- 44:02And then we run the models on it.
- 44:04Then we can get the error rate down to where we can really say, yep, 11 micrometers per second is how much we took away from that asteroid, which means that its year, which is about two years, is going to be shorter by 0.15 seconds.
- 44:17And that's how we get that
- 44:19Data.
- 44:20That's so fascinating.
- 44:21That's how we conclude that number.
- 44:22Right.
- 44:22But it's hard work.
- 44:24And it's a really creative solution to the time problem.
- 44:27Because it's like you have a little, you know, what is it?
- 44:30A necessity breeds invention.
- 44:31And they're like, okay, we don't got time.
- 44:33Yeah.
- 44:34What are we going to do?
- 44:35Yeah.
- 44:35Well, what if?
- 44:37And it worked.
- 44:37Very good.
- 44:38Very good.
- 44:38And so now from there, we can actually calculate the momentum enhancement along the heliocentric path, not just the local path.
- 44:45Yes.
- 44:45But how much boost did both of them get on their way around the sun?
- 44:50Yeah.
- 44:51Given that...
- 44:52My, you know, Kamikaze drone satellite had a certain momentum.
- 44:56How much momentum boost did they get?
- 44:58And the beta that we get is about two, a little bit more than two.
- 45:02So twice as much momentum was transferred to that system than what we put in because of all the ejecta that came out.
- 45:08So basically the amount of momentum we put in, that same amount was ejected out.
- 45:13Yeah.
- 45:14Yeah.
- 45:14I thought it was pretty cool.
- 45:15That's very nice.
- 45:16It also confirms like the density of this.
- 45:20Moonlit.
- 45:20Yeah.
- 45:21It's about...
- 45:22It's significantly lower than solid silicate rock, which means that it's highly porous.
- 45:26It's actually not just like normal rock.
- 45:28It's like a very light rock.
- 45:30It's like the rock you are supposed to wash your feet with.
- 45:32What do they call it?
- 45:33Pumice stone?
- 45:34Yeah, pumice stone.
- 45:35Exactly.
- 45:35Yeah.
- 45:36Yeah.
- 45:36It's 1630 kilograms per meter cubed.
- 45:39Okay.
- 45:39Okay.
- 45:39Which is, so it's still going to sink in water.
- 45:43Water is 1,000 kilograms per meter cubed.
- 45:45But, you know, it's not that much more dense than water.
- 45:48I just want to note, we just implemented a latex notation in our script notes.
- 45:53Yeah, it's pretty great.
- 45:55Look at that plus or minus sign.
- 45:56It displays a real formula.
- 45:57Yeah.
- 45:58And I'm looking at this, and you just riffed that off the cuff so quick.
- 46:01Yeah.
- 46:02read it also the the beta with the under like there's a subscript you know beta h along because that's the beta heliospheric along the path before i had to like read the latex where it would go slash b-e-t-a underscore um parenthesis squiggly parentheses h oh my god it's now it's in english yeah now it's an actual english very good
- 46:29So, broader implications.
- 46:30Yes.
- 46:30We've got a valid measurement of beta.
- 46:32Yes.
- 46:33Now, that validates this kinetic impactor.
- 46:35That means that, like, in the future, we're not blowing things up.
- 46:37Right.
- 46:38Like, if we're going to get twice the momentum enhancement, that means, like, you know, all we need to really toggle is how big is the payload.
- 46:44Yep.
- 46:44Which we can...
- 46:46We can toggle as much as we want, right?
- 46:48We can do multiple hits if we need to.
- 46:51And then, like, how fast are we moving?
- 46:54How big is the payload?
- 46:55How fast are we moving?
- 46:57And then multiple if we need it, right?
- 46:58So this is now, like...
- 47:00A strategic advantage for us.
- 47:02It confirms that we can actually do this.
- 47:03All the things we've seen in all these asteroid movies, some of which they just tried to put a drill.
- 47:08I think Armageddon, they tried to drill and then blow it up.
- 47:11Yeah.
- 47:11But then it just created thousands of pieces that still came in the earth.
- 47:14Yeah, we're not doing that.
- 47:15We're not doing that.
- 47:15Armageddon was incorrect.
- 47:17Right?
- 47:17It's less, okay, it's less Hollywood-esque.
- 47:19Yeah.
- 47:19Yeah.
- 47:19There's no big nuclear explosions in space.
- 47:22But I just want to live.
- 47:24Right.
- 47:24And we just need to nudge it.
- 47:25We just need to hit it.
- 47:27Sideswipe it a little bit.
- 47:28Yeah, exactly.
- 47:29Just get it to go in the other direction.
- 47:30Yeah, it's like a hockey puck, right?
- 47:31Just like, you know, just move it out of the way.
- 47:34The near-Earth...
- 47:35Orbiter Surveyor.
- 47:36Yes.
- 47:36So this thing is NASA's next generation space-based infrared telescope.
- 47:39It's going to launch in 2027 in September.
- 47:42And it's designed to detect dark asteroids that are not visible by ground-based optical telescopes.
- 47:48For whatever reason, sometimes they're coming right at us from the sun.
- 47:51They're like in our orbit.
- 47:52Things like that.
- 47:53So that's what this surveyor is going to do.
- 47:55That's going to give us more and more information.
- 47:57You know, just in case some random crap happens.
- 47:59I want to note that the 2013 Russia example that we talked about, because some of the questions might be like, oh, well, planetary defense, we already know where all this stuff is, so we'll be fine anyway.
- 48:09That 2013 one came out of nowhere and no one saw it.
- 48:14Yeah, and it was super alarming because I was like, I thought you guys had this together.
- 48:18Right.
- 48:18And so...
- 48:19planetary defense is not we are a single point of failure yeah like like species i think i think we have i think nasa says that we've got all of the um
- 48:29All of the really bad ones, like the dinosaur impact type ones, probably under control.
- 48:35But still, the one on Russia, right?
- 48:39If that had not exploded out in whatever altitude, that could have been really bad.
- 48:47That could have taken out a small city.
- 48:49Yeah.
- 48:50I don't want that either.
- 48:51Right.
- 48:52Because the other flip side of this, which is just sort of an interesting dynamic in the world we live in today, which is relevant, is I think this is actually the this is the plot to Paradise, the Hulu show.
- 49:07Yeah.
- 49:08Where it was an external object that was coming in like a comet or an asteroid, and it triggered nuclear war.
- 49:17Because of its, like, as existential context.
- 49:20So, like, if something has impact and then there's misinformation, like, there's not good information sharing about what the thingy was.
- 49:26Yeah, I mean, we're going to war for a lot less.
- 49:29You know, so it just creates, you know, planetary defense is really important.
- 49:34We, you know, we are not well equipped to survive a massive impact.
- 49:39No, so I'd rather not have it.
- 49:41And we now have at least a baseline to be able to provide the defense industry the answer when they all get around that round table and they have an extinction level event from a celestial or cosmic object head to Earth.
- 49:54The NASA scientists have the math now.
- 49:56Exactly.
- 49:57Yeah.
- 49:57And one last thing that I want to highlight is that this is an international effort, right?
- 50:01Planetary defense.
- 50:02We're on the same planet.
- 50:04The ESA has HERA, which is arriving at Didymus and Dimorphos.
- 50:09It's actually going to map out the DART impact crater.
- 50:12And it's going to directly measure Dimorphos' mass via radio tracking.
- 50:18And really refine those values of delta V and then beta subsequently and so on and so forth.
- 50:25So it's really an international effort that we've just sort of created a lab test bed in space of Didius and Dimorphis, this binary asteroid system.
- 50:37It's very cool.
- 50:38Look, any space story you know I'm in on, I owned both Armageddon and Deep Impact on VHS when they both came out in whatever it was, 1997.
- 50:46I still think it's hilarious to think that Bruce Willis and Ben Affleck, who were a bunch of guys who worked on an oil rig, were the only people who could save Earth and had to learn how to become astronauts.
- 50:58And apparently it was easier to train people who worked on an oil rig to be astronauts than it was to train astronauts how to drill on this thing.
- 51:05Yeah.
- 51:05Ben Affleck did.
- 51:06And if you the one of the your movie buff, I think in the the extra scenes, whatever the when we used to have the DVDs with the extra stuff.
- 51:15Oh, the director, like the director's cut where they would voice over while I was playing.
- 51:18He was just taking the piss about how ridiculous the plot was.
- 51:22Yeah, yeah.
- 51:23the whole time.
- 51:24That makes sense.
- 51:25Very, very cool story.
- 51:26Dart, our planetary defense story today.
- 51:28And the key piece to this was the ability to calculate the heliocentric momentum change.
- 51:37It's really a precision physics and precision astronomy story, more than anything else.
- 51:43Right, right.
- 51:44But in the media we like to say, planetary defense!
- 51:48How do we make this militarized?
- 51:50But I just love the, like, you know,
- 51:53For astronomers, like, this kind of precision is, like, unprecedented, right?
- 51:58They're, like, plus or minus 10,000 kilometers, you know, type of guys.
- 52:02Right.
- 52:02Right.
- 52:05And just to recap, this was in Science Advances.
- 52:09Came out March 5th, March 6th.
- 52:12University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, which has been a key institution we've talked about quite a bit on the pod.
- 52:18Also, NASA JPL, Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab, and a few European universities in collaboration, as you were just mentioning, from the ESA side.
- 52:30Yeah.
- 52:31Really fantastic story.
- 52:33We are going to wrap up on the episode for the day.
- 52:38However, we have one.
- 52:40We have two things.
- 52:41One, we need our comment, which we did not write out in our script notes.
- 52:44Oh, no.
- 52:44Why do you?
- 52:45No, we did.
- 52:45It was.
- 52:46Oh, yes.
- 52:46Why do you think the Russians have so many dash cams?
- 52:49Oh, yes.
- 52:49Yes.
- 52:50Yes.
- 52:50So if you're still listening, an hour in, because we are now not doing two and a half hour episodes.
- 52:56We're doing multiple, more bite-sized, more digestible episodes that are focused.
- 53:02So why do you think they have so many dash cams?
- 53:04And we do want to do one correction from episode 29, which was from the rundown related to the research study about the Neanderthal human mating bias.
- 53:16We really appreciate all of the comments from folks on a variety of platforms on that story.
- 53:20Part of the challenge is with the rundown, it is not a main focus, so we don't necessarily get into the weeds as much.
- 53:27We use some imprecise language in that segment, and the study itself was really just focused on mating bias.
- 53:34There was a conversation about the difference between consensual and non-consensual that was not...
- 53:40in the purview of the study itself.
- 53:43And so we appreciate that feedback.
- 53:45We will keep that in mind in terms of making sure we are much more attuned and accurate as we cover things, even if it's in the rundown and not a main story.
- 53:54So we really appreciate that feedback from you guys.
- 53:57I am your host, Lester Nare, joined as always by my co-host and our resident PhD who is not a planetary defense researcher.
- 54:07No, just a measly grad student.
- 54:10we'll catch you guys for the next episode this week