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NFL Week 15 Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: one eight hundred Gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: I'm Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer the Action Network. It
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: is Thursday. I am joined by my co host, professional better,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: BFF compadre, companion, compatriot, all the good stuff, Mr Simon Hunter,
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: my man club brother. We got a lot to do today.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: We're gonna do sharp calls. We're gonna nail down our
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: final five or get close to it, money line parlay,
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: big balls better the week. I got a d am
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: someone making a very specific request for a big balls
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: sort of tweak, which actually liked. I'll challenge you on that.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: He wanted to come in and tweak our big balls.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: It's always well, so thank you. Our balls are available
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: for tweaking. I guess that's what Matt Mitchell was saying.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: And we'll talk about survivor. You slacked me and Matt
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Mitchell last night. You know you have talked all season
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: long about your making three or four big plays every
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: year and that you have settled on one for this week.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: And so we're going to talk about that as well
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: before we do that. Before we do that, also, I
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: got to remind people we we asked you. We asked
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: for this. We asked you to give us hyper critical
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: five star reviews. Say anything you want to say in
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: the review, be as mean as you want, We can
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: take it, but it had to be five stars. You delivered.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: So at the end of the show we will summarize
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: some of the meanest reviews. A lot of these I
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: mentioned on Tuesday will go towards Simon's your end review,
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: which you just learned he's going to get the winner.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: The winner is gonna get some swag from Matt Mitchell,
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: but we'll talk about that at the end of the show. First,
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: let's get to some sharp calls sharpless Hello, who's there?
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: I'm talking. This is when we review from the Tuesday show.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: The calls Simon was getting this week from professional betters
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: who were critiquing or supporting some of the some of
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: the picks and conversations and analysis that we had Simon
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: take it away. I would say I got a lot
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: of calls about the chargers, which again we'll touch on
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: a little bit. No surprise there it's a standalone game.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: It's a dog, it's a home dog. So yeah, again
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: we'll dive into that one. The guys love Pittsburgh. We
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: talked about that. I kind of was a little scared.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: I thought that was kind of a public play this week.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: But multiple pros I love Pittsburgh. Talked to multip pros.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: They love the Eagles. That's another one we gave out.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: I think we give about four four and a half. Yeah,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: seeing sevens now, it was the same exact thing. I
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: kind of got the early word and we talked on
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: the show. There's a COVID outbreak there and we heard
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: it was a bunch of D linemen. It's kind of simple. Eagles,
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: they want to run the ball. Now, we have a
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: team that is out a bunch of starters on their
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: D line. So I would say that a lot of
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: money that came in heavy on the Eagles um professional money.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: And that's what everyone was just calling me about. They
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: were just saying, like, are you able to get forward anywhere?
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: That's what we're pretty much looking for. A lot of
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: these calls are guys are looking for best lines and
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: they're seeing if I can make bets in Jersey for
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: him because New Jersey has kind of been I don't
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: want to say the best state of all the states
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  Speaker 1: for sports, but it really is. We have twenty books,
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: all different lines, a lot of online books, not just
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: in person sports books. So I feel like I'm like
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: the main middleman now. I'm getting reached out to to
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: have my runners make bets for people, just because you
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: get a lot of better options here, especially in Vegas,
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: where you know, give or a take, there might be
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: six or seven books, and a lot of those books
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: just run the same lines and they might run you know,
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: minus one fifteen minus it adds up to vic. So
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: a lot of these pros are looking for minus one
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: oh five, just straight, you know, even pick so I
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: would say the Eagles one was a big one. I
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: got a lot of calls about. And then the Broncos.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: We were on that one early. We gave it out
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: him minus one and a half. I think it's up
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: to three minus two and a half and a lot
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: of books, and I can still see it going up.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: I've plenty of pros I've talked to that they're laying
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: into that. I want to know one pro that's one
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: of his bigger bets of the year. So not nothing's
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: changing that angle. Still have love for that. That Denver
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: Bronco was bet I would say the biggest pushback I got.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: It's not that surprising. My cults love. I love the cults.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: Still nothing's changed there. But I know a couple of pros.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: They're coming in pretty heavy on that Patriots team. The
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: fact the line hasn't moved honestly makes me feeling better
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: about my Cults position. It's just sitting there two and
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: a half. Even though all this money keeps coming on
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: the Patriots I gave to everyone's gonna have them in teasers.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Everyone's teasing that update and a half. So the bookmakers,
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna be on the right side. They're
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: gonna need the Colts come Saturday night. You're right about
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: the Broncos. That one is Steamen. It's at minus two
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  Speaker 1: and a half at a bunch of books, but you're
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: gonna pay extra juice. Yeah, we saw that coming. Let's see.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: So that's a two and a half. The Eagles are
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: at seven UM. The Steelers are at plus one and
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: a half right now. Uh so that's still a pretty
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: good number. So a good opportunity to get the Steelers.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Isn't under out there. Let's talk about the Charges in
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs. Normally, we're not going to spend a lot
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: of time. What's up at the gift? Oh my god,
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: Simon right now is holding up a signed Chicago Bears helmet.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Everybody knows I love the Bears. Everybody knows Simon loves
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: the Eagles. The truth is that the best quarterback on
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: the Bears might be Nick Foles, and Nick Foles, of course,
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: led the Eagles to a Super Bowl. Davac from the
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: Chicago Bears who loses the show sent me a signed
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Bears helmet, signed by Nick Foles, knowing that Simon would
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: have to display it because of how much he loves
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Ni falls. Truly an honor just to be in the
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: presence of that man's signature. It's an honor, amazing, totally amazing.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: I love it. Well done. I thought it was I
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: thought it was an evil, genius move. No, that was
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: a great gift, great gift. Alright, So let's talk about
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: the Chargers and the Chiefs. You'd slacked me in that
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: Mitchell last night. Say, Chargers plus three and a half
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  Speaker 1: is gonna be one of your biggest Bets of the year.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Ye gave that out, I would say I got done
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: the show. Um made a couple of phone calls because
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: I was just a little unsure with my Chargers love. Basically,
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: when I have when I have six points a difference
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  Speaker 1: than the bookmakers, it's it's red alarms to myself being like,
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: what am I not seeing? I gotta make sure I'm
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: talking on the professionals making sure they're seen the same thing.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: So when I make this line chargers minus three and
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: it's all way up to four, which is seven points
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: of difference. I tried to I played a cool in
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: the show, but it was definitely one of those that
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: was gonna be when I knew I was gonna be
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: one of my bigger bets UM of the week, maybe
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: of the season. So are basically reach out to a
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: couple of pros. They came in heavy as well with
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: me on this Chargers at number at the four number
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: and my clients. When I sent out to get approved,
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: I think I might have messaged you an hour afterwards,
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: and it already moved all the way down from four
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: to three. And my advice to you was, listen, these
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: guys are gonna bet this but now it's gonna be done,
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: so no one's gonna be touching this until Thursday night.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Let the public come in Thursday morning. They'll bet it
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: back up the three and a half. I told you
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: you'd be able to get a three and a half.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: Sure enough, we're seeing three and half at bet MGM
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: seeing a three and a half of DraftKings. Nothing's changed.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: I make this number what it is because I think
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: the Charges are a better team, and it's scary making
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: one of my bigger bets of the year, especially I'm
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: already three and one on my big bets. I really
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: don't honestly need this, but it's kind of one of
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: those where I just feel like the opportunity is too
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: good not to take. And if I can fish her
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: four and one on big bets, it's a great year.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Three and two like, that's a good year, But I
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: really want that four and one record. So when I'm
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: looking at I'm I'm trying to be patient when I
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: picked my spots, and in an island game like this
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: is it's kind of given me the same vibes as
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: I had with the Rams and the Cardinals. It's a
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: standalone game. The public's gonna come and really have you
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: on one side the professionals come on the other side.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: But the money is gonna be so skewed towards this
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: Chiefs team. All money like parlay is everyone further weekends
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: being set up through this Chief's game. So just looking
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: at it, it was, Um, it's one of those where
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: I'm nervous because of all the COVID stuff. Like you
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: just talked about, this is a bad week to make
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: a big bet because it literally before game time all
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: of a sudden, three starters could be out for this
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Car Dischargers team, and what am I gonna do? I
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: can't buy in my position, but I just think the
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: number is so good, especially at three and a half, which,
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: like we just talked about, it's back three and a
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: half that it's a big deal this game tonight. I
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: barely slept in it all last night. And uh, I
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: don't know. We have like some cocktail party tonight. I
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: might get drunk at it. We'll see. Oh, we have
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: a big cocktail party tonight, the Action Network cocktail and
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: karaoke event. It's gonna be really fun. I'm excited about it.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: Ye picked out the song Little Wayne for karaoke. I
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: think the company is really gonna enjoy it. It's a
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: little Wayne. We'll put that in your year end review
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: as well. Um, what do you think like right now
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: in some places you can get the Chargers three and
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: a half minus one ten, some places you can only
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: get them three and a half with increased juice minus
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: one fifteen. Do you wait, like, do you think that
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: money is the bets are going to continue to come
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: in on the Chiefs and you're gonna get better juice
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: on this or what? What do you think? You do
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: believe it's nine percent of the money of all football
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: games is bet the hour before kickoff. So the public
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: I feel like they have coming on the Chiefs, but
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: this is this is the right This is really gonna
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: come in on them. So if if you still don't
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: have the three and a half of your book that
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: you use, I would just keep waiting. I don't really
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: buy points. If you get up the four and it's
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: minus minus one twenty, I would do that too, just
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: because I'm betting such a large amount of money. If
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: someone's following on that, I just I play safe as
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: I can. Obviously I have a little bit obviously bet
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: on the chart is money line and different things like that,
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: but as far as six figures go, that's just gonna
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: be on the spread. So looking at this, um, yeah,
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: if you can get minus one ten plus three and
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: a half, of course you jump on that. I mean
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: even minus one fifteen is not terrible. But the key
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: is the three and a half. Mathematically, it's very likely
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: to land on three or two. Shouldn't we be making
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: this one of our what is the line in our contest?
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, it doesn't even matter if it was three
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: will be in there, So it's in there. Yeah, all right, yeah, buddy,
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: all right, So this is definitely one of our top five.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: We're saying it now, Chargers plus whatever. Yeah. If you
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: feel that little pit in your stomach and you're just like,
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: I don't like this. I don't like that feeling, that's
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: why you make this bet. It's it's it's again again.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: It's a pros line. It's everyone in the world is
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: gonna be on that Chief's number. Chiefs have one, what
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: six seven straight games, They've been covering big numbers. Please people,
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: it's rare. Why I think I'm getting six to seven
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: points of value on one side. I gotta tell you,
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: I'm just not bothered by it right now. Cool as
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: a cucumber. Cool as a cucumber. We've been seeing this
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: all year. The Chiefs are overvalued. Now the Chiefs are
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: coming off of a huge win. People are thinking the
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Chiefs are back. Why wouldn't I take this island? Games
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: of the public are on. It's nice to fad, That's
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: what I'm thinking. I'm just gonna go for it, all right.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: So another game that you love that we talked about
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: that you're getting a little put a little bit of
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: pushback on Colts minus two and a half. I love
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: the Colts here too. I did a little bit more
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: research after we had our conversation. Colts overall Russian game
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: number one in the NFL, number two in the NFL
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: behind the Eagles, yards per carry number one in the NFL.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: The Patriots rushing defense bottom third. So yeah, and look
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: who they played. So you're talking about an offensive line
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: the Colts that is super healthy against a defensive line
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: in the Patriots that is overvalued because of who they've played.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: This line opened at one, it's now up to two
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: and a half. Even though all the tickets are coming
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: in on the Patriots I'm struggling to see what the
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: wise guy buddies of yours are are seeing there. So
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: when I sent in my big bet on the Charges,
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: I also sending the Colts. I wanted to make that
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: one of big bets, and I got rejected, so immediately
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: I got for my own group. Again. It's I get
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: a lot of ship talk to me about my lack
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: of respect for the Patriots all the time by guys
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: I work with, and they're not even it's not like
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: they're Bostonians. They're just like, like, you don't get it
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: with Bill, you don't get it. And it's like, I
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: fucking get a guy like I get it. It's just
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to fade a rookie quarterback here and keeps
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: biting the ass because he's playing out of this world.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: But like you just said, on paper, I believe the
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: Patriots give the most explosive runs all season. We've seen
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: it with this Colds team. Taylor's one of the most
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: explosive runners of all football. He believe he leads a
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: league and it's not the close of broken tackles and
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: yards after contact. That's the perfect setup for this Patriots team.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: And again, Patriots have been great against the past and
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: the rush, like, but against the run, they leave big
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: holes up that middle because that that kind of style
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: where they're kind of coming off really heavy off. Yeah, So,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: like you just touch on it. The running things the
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: big deal in me, and it's also a big deal
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: to me. I told you just going against Mac on
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: the road as a rookie, I'm getting under three points
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: with a home team here. The Browns werened us last
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: week with it that that was That's one of those
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: that we talked about why two and a half has
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: become so important. These miss extra points, little things like that.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: It can't happen again. That's just we can't just let
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: that dictate it. I still think we're getting a good
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: number long it's under three. I still believe three is
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: a key number. So to me, two and a half
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: that's automatic play. I feel really strongly about this one.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: I agree with you a uh. To me, there's no
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: way this doesn't go in the contest unless there's some
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: massive COVID issues that happened on Sunday morning. It's an
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: interesting game where like we haven't really touched on futures.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: I guess it's because like we have a lot of
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: jam packing. There are different shows. This is like a
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: crazy future decider in this division, and it really is
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: interesting if the if the Patriots win this, it's hard
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: not to see them taking that a FC. But if
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: you're like me and you like the Bills and still
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: steal the AFC you East, It's uh, it's a sneaky
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: bet to make on the Bills team right now because
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: I can see them dropping this game. Again. Go look
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: at New England schedule. It gets tough coming up here.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: They don't finish with just a layup schedule. They already
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: played the Jets twice, so you know they got Miami left,
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: they got the Bills left. It's this is a big one.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: So to me, I'm doubling down on that. I'm taking
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: the Bills when the a f C East, and I'm
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: gonna be taking the Cults in the spot. I like
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: how you're scanning the market looking for opportunities, seeing how
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: you can basically bundle bundle the opportunities. We love the Eagles.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: The other day, if their number in the contest, which
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: usually locks on Tuesday or Wednesday, is four and a half,
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: what is it right now? It will be um interesting
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: seeing what they make that line. Let's see what the
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: Eagles are. It is six and a half, so we
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: probably have to lock that one in and the Chargers
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: are three and a half, which is nice. Isn't it
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: funny how last week we felt so bad about every game.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: This week, we're so overconfident that it's either going to
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: lead to a five and not week or in five. Yeah,
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna be down down to hard. But it felt
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: I smelt it last week that we talked about all
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: the time. I just felt like a public week I
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: was scaring me off. I just didn't like the way
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: the lines are moving, the way different games were kind
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: of looking. The Eagles are seven everywhere else. You're right, like,
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: the only reason I'm not thinking about the Eagles right
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: now is because I know they were at four and
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: a half earlier in the week. It's in a reality,
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: seven is probably still a good number. Yeah. No, I'm
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: gonna try to get scared off of the fact that
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: we have six and a half makes it way easier
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: to put into our contest. But if I was a
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: better I would still take it at seven. I just
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: want to betting as much as I was going through
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: when I was down at four and a half. Uh okay.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: So the other game that was discussed by us and
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: by your friends, the sharp Callers, UM the Steelers plus two.
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what it is in the contest, but
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: this is one of those games that is bubbling up
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: that has a lot of people talking about it. It's
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: a pro joe game. Majority of the bets are on
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: the Titans, majority of the money is on the Steelers. Um,
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: it feels like it like this Titans team, what have
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: they done? They scored twenty points and let the Jags
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: stay in at the entire game. They scored thirteen against
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: Houston and lost. They scored thirteen against New England. This
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: is this is not an offense without Derrick Henry, with
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: no A J. Brown, Julio Jones, you know, inconsistent in
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: his ability to stay in the field. There their skill positions.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: They're just playing it like second and third string depth
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: right now. Um, Steelers at home as a dog and
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: a must win coming off a loss and extended rest.
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's too many, there's too many signals out
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: to take it again. People think we hate on Tennessee
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: a lot. I honestly think they has been one of
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: the coach of your candidates this year, what he's done
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: with that team, all the injuries they faced, and they
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: keep producing many there when the worst rank defenses end
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: this year, they've been way above what I thought they
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: were going to be on defense. So this isn't so
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: much I'm trying to shoot on Tennessee. It's just all
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: the different little matchups that really go towards this Pittsburgh team.
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: They're way better on defense, especially, They're gonna be matchup wise,
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: all you have to have is two guys Shadow and Julio,
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: and the rest of that defense is gonna be kind
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: of again, what's back to, the rest of that defense
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: is going to cover that field where there isn't any
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: other explosive player. You have to really worry about the
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: Tennessee team. So we're getting a team that it's a
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: little over inflated, Like this line to me should have
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: been minus one to Pittsburgh just giving them the respect
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: at home. The fact that we were getting too still
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: that one and a half of most books. I love
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: the value. Um. The the biggest determining factor in this
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: game is going to be defenses. We've seen Tennessee have
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: certain games where they really dominated some teams. Like again
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: that Chiefs game, Chiefs scored what three points against them?
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: I could say that says more about the Chiefs team,
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: But I went back and watch that film Tennessee. They
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: got playmakers, they got guys that make plays, but they're
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: also stupid. So that's what we're looking for. We're looking
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: for a team that's young, inconsistent to make mistakes against
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: a veteran quarterback in Roethlisberger and all the weapons he
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: does around him. And like you just touched on Tomlin
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: at home as a dog coming off a loss as well.
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: I know that. Really that's a big trend to with
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: Tomlin as a dog coming off a loss at home.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: I wonder what Mike Tomlin is going to say about that.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: But y'all, game today, you ain't know that that's no
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: more now, you know what I mean? My kids want
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: to have a good we have to do it even
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: if we lose this bet. Everything we're doing, all the numbers,
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: everything points to you have to kind of make this bet.
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: So it is one of those I had a little
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: bit of pause because I liked it so much, coming
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: in the fact that I got reinsurance from other pros
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: it makes me love it even more, so I'll definitely
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: be on this Pittsburgh team. I mean, we've already got
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: four games that we love and a couple of them
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: were not even games that we were targeting on Tuesday.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: So it's gonna be really interesting for the rest of
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: the show. Probably like seven games this week. I like,
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: like legit love well one more game that we didn't
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: really talk about on Tuesday or that we did, but
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: I want to revisit. Is the Texans is underdogs on
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: the road at the Jags? Do we reconsider this without
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: Urban Meyer? Does the Jags team play reinvigorated? Are they
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: feeling like they are out from under the thumb of
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: their evil their evil overlord? Do you have any look
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: up to in life other than you? Yeah? Probably. I
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: think Urban Meyers starting to come in my role models.
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: This man came in that absolutely nothing, was an asshole
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: to everyone he came across. I mean, just a huge
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: piece of ship. I saw that he got paid fifty
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: million to get fired from that job. Right now, he'll
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: get fired for cause them because it kicked Lambo. So
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: the lawyers have got he'll get he'll get something, but
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: he won't get the whole fifty I hope you're right,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: because if I was in a Jackson, I would just
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: be like, what the are you doing here? How is
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: this man walking away with all that money? So I'm
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: glad you said that because I saw that. I'm like,
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: this guy's really getting paid fifty million because to meet
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: him and Gruden, two of the greatest thieves in American history.
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, Growening got paid a hundred million to get
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: his ass kicked every year and can come back and coach.
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: So I told you my whole reason for liking that
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: Jacks team. Um, I not that I had whispers of
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: him getting fired, but I had whispers of, you know something,
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: something might be happening with that team. I wish I
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: would have bet it, though, because I just didn't believe.
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: I really thought they were gonna m finish out the
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: year because of everything he'd done. And it's hilarious that
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: story of him kicking their ex kicker in preseason is
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: what kind of pushed it over the edge. But yeah,
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: nothing's changed. I think, um, the public I knew was
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: gonna come and have you on Houston. That was my
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: whole reason for liking the Jacks, even before Urban was fired,
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: the number was grown. I think it had got up
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: to three and a half four even before he was fired,
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: So the pros came in on it. Now it's up
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: the five and a half and a lot of off
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: shore books that are really respected by a lot of professionals.
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: That's like a clear indicator that everyone thinks what we
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: always think, that a team hates their coach. I remember
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: we bet the Vegas shit they played. Do you remember
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: Chad the week after they got he got fired? Yeah? Yeah,
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: we love them that week, right, And it's just it
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: feels like the same thing. You're like, everyone's gonna rally
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: around hating this guy. So I don't know what number
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: we'll get in the contest or if this will be
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: one of our five, but nothing's changed. I'll still be
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: betting it. It's a fun bet, like we love, we
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: love being on teams after the fire coach and everyone
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: hates and I feel like everyone hates Herban may even
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: even like the X, like the players coming out and
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: talking about it after he's gone. Nothing but the stain.
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: So this man who just was not liked by that team.
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: It's always interesting also to bet the team right after
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: the coaches fired. I think that's always a good opportunity.
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: Um Stuck. He actually did a great story about this.
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: We should People should just google Action Network Stucky NFL
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: coaches fired, and you will get a great story from
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: Stucky about how teams perform in the first game after
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: their coaches fired, or there's a mid season or coaching change.
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: Another game on our list, I'm going in order here.
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: We liked the Panthers at the Bills plus ten. You
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: said we should wait, and sure not, the line has
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: moved up. Here's what's interesting to me. The total on
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: this game is about forty four. It's a pretty low
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: total for a number that has such a high spread
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: and the majority of the money, meaning the wise guy money,
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: the professional money is coming in on the under. To me,
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: there's a correlation there. There's correlation between betting the under
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: at forty four forty four and a half and then
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: betting the Panthers a plus eleven. Given the circumstances around
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: these teams, Josh Allen in a walking boot, bad weather
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: and Buffalo the Panthers knowing that they're only going to
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: run the ball. It feels like a pretty good spot
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: for the Panthers, and we liked. Everyone's left him for Debt. No,
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: no one's bet in Carolina, no one's a beat Camp.
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: So coming in, I did really like it, but I
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: don't think it'll be one of my top five. Now.
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: I still love what everything you said, but man, that
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: feeling of we're down fourteen, we have Cam and now
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: Cam has to throw the ball and we know it
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: picks six is coming. It's it's just not what I
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: want to experience for our fans here. So um, I
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: still love it. Still think it's a good smart pro
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: number I would take in my pick pools, but I
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: don't know if I'll make it one of our best five. Broncos.
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: We discussed we still love the Broncos. We love the Broncos.
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: At minus two and a half, yeah, we I mean again,
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: we think there's more Gonna Burrows injury that's been led on.
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: He didn't play well for about three quarters of that
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: game against the fourty niners, and he did try as
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: hard as you could the back doorm. A lot of
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: that went down to the refs and Chase. I mean,
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: I don't know how to feel about this Bengals team.
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: So I know it's a make or break week for them.
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: The fact that I moved against him it makes me
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: even trust trust my numbers early on even more, where
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: we we just thought Denver was a good side. In fact,
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: the professionals came in so heavy and bet this all
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: way up to a key number of three two and
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: a half. I love Denver. I know the public are
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: gonna come in on this dog with since he I
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: get it, you're gonna points with a team that feels
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: are kind of a coin flip kind of game. But
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: to me, this should be, you know, more minus four
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: for Denver than is. So I still think we're gonna
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: good number here with this number. Team Jesus Christ. We've
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: already written down six games that we love. Yeah, I
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: told you I had like seven, leg had seven games.
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: I really like this is uh, this is insane all right?
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: Another one Tuesday, Jay Tuesday. We loved the Falcons at
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: plus eight and a half. It's now up to nine
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: and a half. But we might be on one's bettness.
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: I didn't really hear that many pro pros like this
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: number like I do. I just Shanahan is a huge
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: favorite at home. We always fade. This position always works
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: out for us. I mean one that really jumped out
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: to me. I think maybe just because I'm an Egos fan,
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: but the Eagles were doing terrible right, They're on a
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: big slide um. Everyone was kind of done on Carson
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: Wentz just did not look right. They had Nick Mullins
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: as the starting quarterback of the fours, and the books
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: had the audacity to make them minus eight at home
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: against the Eagles. With Nick Mollins the starting quarterback, think
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: heus end up winning that game, but over a touchdown
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: against this this four Niners team. So just going off
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: the over inflation of this line, the fact that publics
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: come keep coming in on this number and they keep
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: betting it up even more. Love this changed here. Love Atlanta,
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: love them to beat this four Niners team. We talked
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: about it was maybe two or three years ago, the
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl run. The four Niners had the only team
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: they lost to at home that year because you're Atlanta Falcons,
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: and they were even worse that year, the Atlanta Falcons.
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: This team matchup on paper, I think a lot of
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: excuse towards this four Owners team. On the defensive side,
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: the Atlanta just does not have the pieces in the
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: secondary to really shut down Jimmy g luckily upfront, they've
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: had pass rush and they've had a lot of good pressure.
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: You see, Jimmy g is not good against pressure. So
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be a sloppy turnover kind of battle
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: with you know, we're gonna get a little bit of
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: luck to cover this number. But I also think we
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: have a chance of winning this game, winning out right.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: For all the big dogs this week, this is the
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: only one I really seen having a chance of winning
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: out right. So I'm still gonna be on Atlanta, still
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: take that number. It's just scary the line the numbers
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: moving against us. I know that that means no pro
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: money is coming on our side, and that's always scared
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: when we're just on an island. In that way, I
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: think we've got plenty of options for final five. I
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: don't know that we need to add it, even though
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: even though it is my scoot Roulette pick. Yeah, that's tough.
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: You're on the Colts minus two and a half. I'm
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: on the Falcons plus eight and a half, or I'll
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: take whatever wherever the number of lands. Here's another interesting
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: one on Tuesday Seattle was the Simon says pick a second,
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: Simon says, pick the first Simon says, pick was Atlanta
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: plus eight and a half. So people aren't getting the
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: best of the number on that. Simon says, pick, and
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: they're not getting the best of the number on a
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: Simon says, uh the sequel because the Seahawks on Tuesday
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: were at plus seven now they're a plus four and
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: a half. And this is another pro Joe fiercent of
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: the money on the Seahawks the Rams. Yeah, nothing's changed.
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: We talked about that was a crazy over inflated line
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: in a divisional rivalry matchup four and a half? Would
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: you still bet it? Still? Would bet it still? I mean,
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: I'd still take it. It It just it just sucks giving
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: that out because it's like we lost a lot of
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: that value. That's big too. Two and a half points
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: moved through two different key numbers as well. Now that hurts.
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: So I'm still on the Seahawks. That that might be
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: reason why it's not one of our five is it's
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: it's moved so much. We're losing a lot of the
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: value taking at this number. But it depends on what
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: it's at in the contest though, Yeah, that's true. I
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: still think this number should be closer to three and
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: a half. So if you're just a better out there,
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: I still think you're gonna get number the Seahawks team.
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: This is going to be a tough battle for both teams.
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: We talked about rams are overinflated just because they want
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: a prime time game again. Now I'm talking about like
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: thinking about talking about maybe this could be one of
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: our five depending on what the number is in the contest.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: But it's just tough taking out four and a half
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: when it was seven. If you said to me on
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: a Thursday, I got this number three, I've got this
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: power raider to three three and a half, and I've
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: got a one and a half point advantage on the underdog,
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't be thinking about the opportunity cost lost from
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks at plus seven. I would only be thinking
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: I'm still getting a point and a half and I
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: would like I hit the go button immediately. Yeah, Like
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: I'm really good what I do. These bookmakers are a
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: million times better. So that's the scary part where when
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: it lands at six, you're like, oh fuck, that's why
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: they hung at seven when at first open. That was
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: why the Pros bettered at seven because the numbers should
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: have been six So that's always the scariest part with
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: bet in these kind of numbers, is um, there's a
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: reason they hung out that high. I'm just hoping my
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: initial read right that they bumped it away up there
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: just because of the prime time win for this Rams
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: team Saints Bucks. We love the Saints a plus eleven
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: in the past. I want to take the Saints. But
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: the more I read about it, the more I look
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: at it, this might be a sharp trap that I'm
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: walking right into. It feels a little too good to
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: be true, Like the sports books are being really nice,
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: so it's giving us this kind of number. Maybe talk
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: to two other professional groups on the Saints too. They
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: think we've gotten all we could get out of the
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: Saints run again there. I believe four and five the
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: last two years against this Buccaneers team, the one losses
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs last year. So again they're three and
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: one or four and one against Brady since he's been
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: on the book, or No. Three and one against Brady
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: the one win game last year in the play up.
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: So the Saints have played well, They've matched up well
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: against this Buccaneers team. This just doesn't They just had
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: too much stuff going on that's gonna catch up when
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: they're this game in my opinion, like Taysom Hill kind
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: of a runforced quarterback. We know that with the finger
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: injury as well, that really puts some of a buy
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: on where they're gonna need to have to try to
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: run the ball against this Buccaneers front that I just
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: can't trust that. I cannot trust them running against this team.
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: You need to beat the Bucks by passing. That's not
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: what the Saints do well right now. So I'll bet
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: the Saints, but this is probably gonna be my low,
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: like five figures kind of bet. I doubt I crossed
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: in the you know, Tan k on this kind of game,
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: it's um, it's just too much unknown with it for
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: me to really put a lot of money on it anymore.
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: I won't do. I won't to die more than I
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: wouldn't either. So can we talk about the Bears for
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: a second. H Now that you're in the fold, now
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: that you've got Bears paraphernalia, now that you love them
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: as much as I do, when they're your second favorite team.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: Bears plus three and a half plus four against the Vikings.
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: Vikings team that only plays one possession games, always plays
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: down to their opponent. You can almost guarantee whatever they
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: do in the first half of do the opposite in
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: the second half. Money coming in on the Bears. That's
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: coming in and the Vikings. We've got six games that
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: we're talking about right now that we really like for
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: the contest. The Bears going to be in play for
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: us on Sunday. Are the Bears a team to bet
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: right now? Of course? You know you knew we were
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: gonna love that number. We talked on Tuesday about. It's
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: it's such a again. Once again, it's another prose versus
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: Joe's kind of game. Obviously, I wish all these dogs
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: with cash rous people uh in these primetime slots, But
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: that's just one of you guys are gonna drop, So
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: I don't. I'm probably walking into taking all these home dogs.
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: And I hate betting Matt Naggy, So that's the only thing,
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: Paul for me not putting this in. The main reason
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: will be just because the Naggy um. He's burned me
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: taking the Bears as a dog on any other coach.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: I believe in NFL history, the sky every time I
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: take the Bears as a dog, he doesn't cover. I
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: mean it's it's a talent. Honestly, Um, I wish I
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: could fade them, but they just keep getting such value,
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: this Bears team, because they're not as bad as they looked. Again,
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: Robert Quinn, he's three sacks away from breaking your guy
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: sack record. No one even knows that because the Bears
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: have just been that bad this year. Don't even cares.
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: They're just like, oh, they just sucked all here. So
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I have to take the Bears just
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: in a simple fact that Vikings always played down the competition.
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: They play games close. They're sucking me with three and
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: a half houck. I know, I know what they're doing.
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: They're giving me a little trap there. So yeah, I'll
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: bet it, but I probably won't make it one of
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: our five because I just feel terrible having people bet
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: on these ship teams and lose the money and like
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: such bad spots. Look, we didn't do a our big
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: balls better than weep. Sorry, I meant I should have
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: said Chargers, Oh chargers, all right, Well, listen, we had
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: a guy's recommendation, We had a request from jeep Glide.
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: A d M from jeep Glide sounds streussworthy. Oh you
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: know by the way I found you on Twitter. I
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: think that most people who reach out on Twitter through
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: their d m s are pretty genuine, Like they either
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: have a really good criticism, but they say it in
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: a way where they want to be constructive because they're
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: invested in the show or their fans of yours, or
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: whatever the case may be. It's like the people who
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: just at you in their mentions, you suck, you call
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: yourself a professional, You're an asshole. Those are my favorite ones.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: Those are the people like I don't pay attention to
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: Jeep Glood. He wonders if we can do the money line,
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: the big ball better the Week should be a money
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: line underdog, and this case it is. It's the Chargers,
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: like but you don't like them as the big balls
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: better the Week. Just on the money line, you like
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: him the plus three and a half. No, I mean
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: the money money line is supposed to just be a
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: little percentage of your bankroll. You're giving yourself a ton
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: of risk taking money lines. That's why they're giving you
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: such nice plus numbers. That's why I like doing money
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: line around Robbins. I like his idea in his concept,
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: but the whole point of the big ball is better
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: as people just be taking these ugly spread numbers. So
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: that's kind of like my oh when I first started,
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: like came on your show. It's just I want people
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: to take ugly dogs. That's how you win good money.
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: You take ugly dog money lines as well. So our
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: money line round Robins already ugly enough that already takes
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: big balls to make regardless. All right, well big balls better.
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: The week is gonna be the Chargers plus three and
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: a half. We are riding big numbers with that. We're
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: gonna get to your five star hypercritical reviews. Let's uh,
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: what is happening. Look, we take the We take the
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: feedback seriously. It's why we asked for the hypercritical reviews.
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: It's why when the guy came in and said, I
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: don't like when you say love you at the end.
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: We talked about it, we voted on it. We decided
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: to keep doing it. We're invested just like you are.
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: What's our money line parlay? It's like, is it is
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: it a is it a seven team money line? Parlay?
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: Dog your dog? Your dog blocks dog? I mean obviously
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: got throw Chargers in there. We would like Las Vegas,
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: it was it was plus three when we did the
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: show on Tuesday. Now that's gone. They're the favorite. Kind
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: of makes me when I take the browns now, but
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: it's not enough value even throwing this MONEYLFE par Lace.
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: We'll just leave them out just because they're not really
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: change that number enough for us to make any like
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: real Dent Chargers love it, Pittsburgh love it, Seahawks love it. Atlanta.
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: I'm about it. This fifth one. People who might get
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: upset because we're going against ourselves with it. I'm still
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: in Green Bay. But the Ravens as a home dog,
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: you're you're getting. You're getting a good number at this point.
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: If it's Lamar and you're doing this on Sunday, I
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: put this one in. If you're gonna do it just
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: because you're throwing the Charges in tonight, I probably leave
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: it out. And I would just throw in the Bears.
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: I know Chad, he probably believes they have no shot
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: of winning. I'm right there with them. We've seen the
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: Vikings though. They when they have wins, when they come
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: off wins, they have letdowns to find games and they
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: just play so sloppy. It's um it's too many points
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: of that matchup. So to me, that's a nice little
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: icing on the cake. Taking that the Bears to end
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: it on Monday night and you can hedge out. That's
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: why I like doing primetime games. Taking these big dogs.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: It's an easy spot to hedge. So it's a great
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: way to ruin your Monday night watching the Bears, ruin
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: your money line round robbing parlay night. What's our survivor pick?
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: Actually had a tough time like thinking about this one.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: You're you're basically at the point now where you don't
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: have like that many options obviously left. It's tough for
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: me to tell you take the Jags, but that's one
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: of the teams you're gonna have left. It's tough for me, Taylor,
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: you take Miami against the Jets, but that's one of
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: the teams are gonna have left. Miami, the Jags. They
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: really stand out as these two teams that people most
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: likely have left, or the Eagles if you haven't. Somehow
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: I haven't used Eagles. You didn't use them against the Jets.
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: It's another good spot to use these teams. So I'm
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: trying to look at it. Obviously, there's other matchups like
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: the Buccaneers. Yeah, that's a layup. No one's gonna have
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: that left. Um, no one's gonna have the Bills left.
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to think of obscure teams that people might
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: have left. Again, it's scary. I get it. You're taking
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: the Jags, but they're at home, big spot against a
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: rookie quarterback playing hard because they hated their past coach.
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: I just love it. And the fact that this number
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: is gonna keep growing that that has to make you
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: feel better about taking the Jags on the money line.
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: So to me, that's a sneaky play for survival pool.
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: All Right, we've done the money line parlot, we've done
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: the Survivor pool, we've done the sharp calls. We've narrowed
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: it down. Um, just to recap as we head into
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: as we head into the weekend, the games that we
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: are thinking about for our final five, we're definitely doing
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: the Chargers plus three and a half. We love the
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: Colts minus two and a half. And then we're gonna
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: be choosing from Eagles minus six and a half, Steelers
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: plus two, maybe the Jags minus four, maybe the Broncos
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: minus two and a half, maybe the Bears probably plus four.
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: What we're looking at I know a couple of professionals
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: they like the Ravens. My love for green Bay is
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: just the fact I think Lamar is gonna be out
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: and that's just a huge advantage to that Green Bay team.
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: So it's rare. I'm on the tchalk side, especially road chalk,
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: but that's just a good position of being. And now
• 38:15
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  Speaker 1: in West Virginia. Let's get back to the show, all right,
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: it's time for the hypercritical five star reviews. We asked
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: for it. It's the end of the year. We're doing
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: our own public facing NDY the Year reviews. And let
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: me just say one thing I want to remind everybody
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: because some of the a lot of the feedback was
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: consistent about wanting more player props or you know, it
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: gets a little too talkie at times. All good, we
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: get it, trying to pull that back sometimes. If you
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: are looking for just hardcore NFL data analysis picks very
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: little chit chat, check out the Action Network podcast. They
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: went through it, especially on their their Thursday show they
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: do their Sunday six pack. It's an amazing show. I
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: listened to it every week before I get ready for
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: this one. Also, the award winning Fantasy Flex podcast UM
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: Separate Channel goes through player props, as well as everything
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: DFS related. So here's the summary of some of the
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: meanest five star reviews. We got him. Then, Matt Mitchell,
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: you're gonna announce the winner at the end. That's right,
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: we'll select a few winners. Again, we really appreciate everyone
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: who most importantly followed the directions. It's very manual. You
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: gotta follow a bunch of steps. I really, really really
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: appreciate that helps the show a lot. The content of
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: those reviews. I read every single review, one star reviews
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: that are mean spirited, just very kindly in the spirit
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: of the holiday season, go funk yourselves. I'm sure that
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: will fuel a million one star reviews. But again, if
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: you want to attack us personally or get into really
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: sharp criticism that you know will be read individually by
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: me and probably Chad Simon, you can email me any
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: time at podcasts at Action network dot com. You will
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: also be emailing podcasts at Action network dot com to
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: claim any prizes. That is the mechanism through which you
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: receive your prizes. So again, thank you for everyone who
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: followed instructions. We are nothing without our listeners. As a reminder,
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: I have been listening to this show for a really, really,
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: really really long time, all the way back to its
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: ESPN days. I love the show so much I quit
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: my good job, went back to school, learned audio production,
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: got a job at Action when it was barely a company,
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: so that I could eventually produce this show. So I
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: appreciate everyone's investment in the show and desire to improve it.
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: I take all of your feedback very very very seriously.
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: Feedback is a gift. Here are some of the gifts
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: are fans gave us this holiday season. Academic NFL fan
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: who appreciated that we stayed on topic, which is unlike
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: the views of many of our critics. A M. Lopez quote,
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: Come for the bets, stay for the Colt McCoy story,
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: Taser two four three six three subject line which nipple quarterback.
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: Thanks to j swab twenty one, who left us an
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: ivers review. We're saying hello to d L E ws
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: R e k o J who complained that he now
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: here's Chad saying Minnesota vikings when he sees them. Cheeky Finger,
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: who has been listening since Matthew Berry used to join
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: on Scooches show. Matthew Berry has never been on the
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: podcast In fact, Matthew Berry was vociferously against the idea
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: that fantasy was gambling and gambling over right up until
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: it became clear gambling is going to outpace fantasy at
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: some point. This is a neate Rabbits podcast. A few
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: people will get that, Red Devil ten who called Matt
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: Mitchell a dead inside Bills fan got Feeble who asked
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: for more player props and called Simon a miserable scrooge,
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: and Mohan s r O has Chad, who asked Chad
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: to stop ragging about his own professionalism. Can I tell
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: you professional? There were some mean ones in there, Matt Mitchell.
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: I mean that I've never been called a scrooge, So
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: I'm actually feeling pretty good right now. Well should you?
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: You are right about that? There were certainly cemtar ones
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: in here. Again, Tina's voice was essentially not heard last episode.
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: We did get some reviews begging for her return. That
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: is very nice. I will mostly leave Tina out of
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: us through the end of the season. I think that's
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: totally fine. Thank you everyone for your concern. She's fine professional. Yeah,
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: she's a pro. I do want to give a little
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: bit of shine to well Bosom who left by far
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: our longest and probably our most mean review, but again,
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: it was five stars, so I want to thank him
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: or her personally for following instructions and basically giving us
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: exactly what we asked for. It is very long, but
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: to summarize, he or she let us know that the
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: show is one of the best in the business when
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: it stays on topic, which he doesn't always do. It
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: would be nice if Chad could rain himself in a
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: little bit because in years past Scooch was able to
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: kind of keep him on track, but now that he
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: has quote a big wigged action network, it feels as
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: though he has a blank check to do whatever he
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: pleases on this show. Weekly I get regaled with not
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: so subtle brags about his weekly happenings. We get it
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: you went to MSG and didn't sit in the rafters,
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: but frankly, I'd rather hear about Simon's three am trip
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: to the bathroom and Quote. He wanted to let us
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: know that he appreciates Simon's in depth analysis and viewpoints.
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: Simon has up getting up pretty easy here, but that
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: the rest of the episode is like Nickelodeon's Slime Time.
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: Chad reminds me of Timmy Timmins, the younger brother in
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: the sand Lot. He went in to explain that at
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: great depth, and then let me know that the hokey
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: little drops drive me crazy. I've been conditioned to reach
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: my phone and find the skip ahead button when anyone
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: mentions Daniel Jones, or as soon as I hear the
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: buffalo bills mentioned for a show that delivers such professional content,
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: the hokey drops feeling incredibly amateurish. Thank you, I'm not
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: going anywhere. I would just love for you guys to
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: stay on track. I need your picks to remain consistently
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: good at picking winners, and I'd rather pay you money
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: in my time to listen to the extra circus peanuts
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: that somehow somebody thought it was a good idea to
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: include in this show. It goes on from there, including
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: Sanky very explicitly did not want to receive any Action
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: Network swag and that he would be embarrassed to wear it,
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: and said to be nice if there were some occasional
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: guests hosts, but please not Darren Rebel. It is a
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: real tour to force again. I thank you well, Bosom,
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: and now to select a winner. Very quickly, and I
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: would let everybody who reviewed know they're still in the
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: running for future polls. I'll keep all you guys at
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: a file. Um. I am going to give prizes to
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: Scott Fiebolt, the one who called Simon and miserable Scrooge
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: has our two four, three, six three, the one who
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: let us know about which dumple quarterback, and of course
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: am Lopez. Come for the bets, stay for the Culton
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: Point story. The Culton Point story is terrible and it's
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: been heard on this show countless times. Thank you for
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: pointing it out again. Email podcasts at action network dot
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: com to claim your prize. Thanks for leaving your reviews.
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: Happy Holidays. We love all of our listeners equally, even
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: the ones who said really mean things about me. This
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: has been the favorites podcast from the volume of podcast Network.
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: I am Shad Noman, he is Simon Hunter, and keep
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: a lookout for a special bonus episode on Early Bowl
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: Betting featuring our very own Colin Wilson. You can download
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: us in Spotify, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your your podcasts. Obviously,
• 48:08
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• 48:12
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• 48:15
  Speaker 1: would like until Tuesday. I love you so charges h