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Market Pulse: Tech Power & Rate Cut Anticipation · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Welcome back to Spy Trader , your goto podcast for navigating the markets .
• 0:05
  I'm your host , Bucks Brawley , and it's 6 am on Thursday , September 4th , 2025 , Pacific .
• 0:12
  We're here to break down the latest , give you the insights , and help you make those smart moves .
• 0:17
  Let's dive right in .
• 0:19
  The US stock market is showing a mixed but cautiously optimistic picture right now .
• 0:25
  On Wednesday , the techheavy Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 both saw gains , rising 1% and 0.5% respectively .
• 0:35
  The Dow Jones Industrial Average , however , experienced a slight dip of 0.1% .
• 0:42
  As we start our Thursday , futures are showing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 edging a bit higher , while Dow futures are slightly down , reflecting a balanced sentiment as we await some key labor market data .
• 0:57
  The S&P 500 Index is currently hovering around 6,448.27 .
• 1:04
  Now , for the big news items .
• 1:07
  The tech sector received a significant boost thanks to a US court ruling on September 1st , which largely blocked efforts to break up Google .
• 1:16
  This news sent shares of Alphabet , ticker GOOGL , soaring by 9% on Wednesday !
• 1:23
  Not to be outdone , Apple , ticker AAPL , jumped 3.8% , also benefiting from plans for its own AIdriven search engine .
• 1:33
  On the earnings front , it's been a busy few days .
• 1:36
  Salesforce , ticker CRM , saw its shares fall over 7% in premarket trading this morning after delivering some disappointing guidance , despite betterthanexpected quarterly results .
• 1:49
  Other companies like Macy's , Campbell's , Dollar Tree , Polestar Automotive , PagerDuty , and American Eagle Outfitters also released their quarterly reports , giving us plenty to chew on .
• 2:01
  Broadcom , ticker AVGO , is also set to report later this week , so keep an eye on that .
• 2:08
  We're also seeing ongoing tariffrelated concerns impacting investor sentiment .
• 2:14
  A recent federal appeals court ruling deemed most of President Donald Trump's tariffs illegal , which could lead to significant government repayments , and business executives are expressing wariness about the impacts on their planning .
• 2:29
  So , what does this all mean for your portfolio ?
• 2:32
  Let's talk about it .
• 2:34
  The technology and communication services sectors are really leading the charge .
• 2:40
  The Technology Select Sector SPDR , XLK , and the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR , XLC , both advanced nicely on Wednesday .
• 2:51
  This strength is clearly fueled by those favorable court rulings and the continued buzz around AI .
• 2:57
  Yeartodate , Communication Services and Industrials have been top performers .
• 3:02
  The Utilities sector , XLU , has also been a steady hand , especially during market uncertainty .
• 3:10
  On the flip side , the Energy Select Sector SPDR , XLE , tumbled 2.2% on Wednesday , with the sector facing downward revisions due to lower oil prices .
• 3:21
  Healthcare and Real Estate are looking a bit undervalued , having seen some declines in Q2 .
• 3:27
  Now , for the macroeconomic picture , which is always crucial .
• 3:32
  The Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision is just around the corner , on September 17th .
• 3:39
  There's a strong likelihood of a 25basispoint interest rate cut , which would be the first of 2025 , moving the target range to between 4.00% and 4.25% .
• 3:51
  This potential cut is driven by a softening labor market and moderating inflationary pressures .
• 3:58
  However , some analysts are putting the odds closer to 5050 , citing strong economic indicators .
• 4:06
  Inflation is still a factor , with the annual rate at 2.7% for the 12 months ending July 2025 .
• 4:13
  While it's holding steady , it's still above the Fed's 2% target , and there's an expectation that inflation could reaccelerate above 3% in the second half of the year due to those tariffs .
• 4:25
  The labor market is definitely showing signs of weakening , with US job openings falling in July to near a 4.5year low .
• 4:34
  Employment gains have also slowed significantly .
• 4:37
  Everyone's got their eyes glued to the upcoming August jobs report on Friday , September 5th , with economists forecasting another weak increase in nonfarm payrolls .
• 4:48
  This softening is a key factor supporting those rate cut expectations .
• 4:53
  GDP growth for the third quarter is also moderating , with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimating 3.0% , down from 3.5% just a few days ago .
• 5:05
  Goldman Sachs is slightly lower at 1.7% .
• 5:09
  So , we're looking at a moderate downshift in growth for Q3 .
• 5:14
  Alright , let's talk brass tacks .
• 5:16
  What should you be doing with your money in this environment ?
• 5:19
  The market has a bit of a ' riskon ' sentiment , thanks to tech strength and the anticipation of Fed rate cuts , but we're also balancing that with lingering concerns over inflation , tariffs , and a cooling labor market .
• 5:33
  Here are my recommendations : First , for my growthoriented investors who are looking at technology and AI .
• 5:40
  The tech and communication services sectors are on fire , bolstered by those favorable court rulings for giants like Alphabet and the continued buzz around AI .
• 5:51
  Lower interest rates generally help growth stocks , making their future earnings look even better .
• 5:58
  So , consider the Invesco QQQ Trust , QQQ , which gives you concentrated exposure to the Nasdaq100's big tech names .
• 6:06
  The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLK , is another great option for targeted tech exposure .
• 6:14
  And if you're into individual stocks , keep an eye on Alphabet , GOOGL , and Apple , AAPL , given their recent boosts .
• 6:24
  For highergrowth , smallercap plays , Palantir Technologies , PLTR , or Zscaler , ZS , are showing strong earnings growth forecasts .
• 6:34
  Second , for those looking for stability and income , it's wise to consider some defensive and fixedincome assets .
• 6:41
  Despite the tech rally , those macroeconomic uncertainties mean a diversified approach is prudent .
• 6:47
  Expected Fed rate cuts can benefit fixedincome instruments .
• 6:52
  So , look at the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF , BND , or the iShares Core U.S.
• 6:58
  Aggregate Bond ETF , AGG .
• 7:01
  These offer broad exposure to investmentgrade US bonds , providing stability and income .
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  Also , the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLU , is a defensive play with stable earnings , offering downside protection and potentially benefiting from increasing AI power demand .
• 7:19
  And don't forget SPDR Gold Shares , GLD .
• 7:24
  Gold is a classic safehaven asset , especially with lower real interest rates and ongoing geopolitical risks .
• 7:32
  UBS even has a target of 3,700 an ounce by mid2026 for gold .
• 7:39
  Third , for broad market diversification , you can't go wrong with core holdings that capture overall economic growth .
• 7:48
  The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust , SPY , or its cousins iShares CORE S&P 500 ETF , IVV , and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF , VOO , are excellent choices to track the S&P 500 .
• 8:05
  For even wider exposure , consider the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF , VTI , which covers the entire US stock market , including large , mid , small , and microcap stocks .
• 8:18
  Lastly , a few important considerations : The Federal Reserve meeting on September 17th is a pivotal event , so watch closely for their decision and Chair Powell's commentary .
• 8:30
  The August jobs report coming out tomorrow , September 5th , will also be crucial in shaping expectations for those rate cuts .
• 8:38
  And keep an eye on inflation's trajectory ; any reacceleration due to tariffs could lead to more volatility .
• 8:46
  In essence , the US stock market is benefiting from robust tech performance and the anticipation of rate cuts , but vigilance is key .
• 8:55
  A diversified portfolio balancing growth with defensive positions is what I'm recommending .
• 9:01
  That's all for today's Spy Trader .
• 9:03
  I'm Bucks Brawley , and I'll catch you next time for more market insights .
• 9:08
  Happy trading !