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Did Trump and Netanyahu just break up? · The Front

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: From the Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.
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  Speaker 1: It's Wednesday, June ten, twenty twenty six. Iran and Russia
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  Speaker 1: are using children as young as eleven in gig economy
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  Speaker 1: terror plots. Counter Terrorism agencies are worried hostile actors are
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  Speaker 1: recruiting Australian adolescents on gaming platforms. Data centers pose a
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  Speaker 1: risk to the entire electricity grid, according to the Energy
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  Speaker 1: Market Regulator, which is warning giant artificial intelligence tech sheds
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  Speaker 1: use a huge amount of power and can suddenly go
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  Speaker 1: offline in response to a relatively minor voltage disruption, potentially
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  Speaker 1: collapsing the whole network. Those stories are exclusive to the
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  Speaker 1: Australian dot Com, Dot You and Live Now. Iran and
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  Speaker 1: Israel are firing on each other again, and now Donald
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  Speaker 1: Trump and Benjamin ettin Yah who are at war II.
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  Speaker 1: There's been a huge shift in Middle East affairs and
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  Speaker 1: the President's desperation to get a peace deal is fracturing
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  Speaker 1: what was supposed to be his rock solid relationship with Israel.
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  Speaker 1: So are we getting any closer to peace? Cameron Stewart
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  Speaker 1: is here in just a moment. Cameron Stewart is the
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  Speaker 1: Australian's chief international correspondent, cam it feels like a week
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  Speaker 1: is a very long time in Middle East warfare these days.
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  Speaker 1: What happened over the weekend and where are we left
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  Speaker 1: now with Iran, Israel and the United States?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, Claire, it was a dramatic weekend, it really was.
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  Speaker 1: The Israeli military claims it's assassinated a senior hes Woller
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  Speaker 1: commander an attack on Beirut's southern suburbs.
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  Speaker 3: Deehran says it fired missiles toward northern Israel as an
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  Speaker 3: act of self defense.
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  Speaker 1: Justification for its attack. Israeli airstrikes and very Sudthern suburbs.
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  Speaker 2: Israel and Iran have struck each other directly for the
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  Speaker 2: first time since that truce took hold, leaving the regional
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  Speaker 2: peace agreement basically hanging by a thread. Of course, Hezbala
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  Speaker 2: is the Iranian proxy terror force in Lebanon, and Iran
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  Speaker 2: has said that it will not strike peace with the
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  Speaker 2: US unless Israel stops bombing Hezbealah in Lebanon, and so
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  Speaker 2: that was a reprisal, that was their excuse for attacking
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  Speaker 2: Israel directly. And then we had more drama.
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  Speaker 1: The IDEAF said it launched retaliatory strikes against military targets
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  Speaker 1: in central and western Iran. Iran's top military command has
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  Speaker 1: announced an end to its operation, but warned of a
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  Speaker 1: more severe response if Israel continues its aggression in Lebanon.
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  Speaker 4: Now.
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  Speaker 2: The pause follows calls from US President Donald Trump for
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  Speaker 2: both sides stop shooting. And so that's where we are now.
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  Speaker 2: Both countries, Israel and Iran have said they will fire again,
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  Speaker 2: they will start taking each other again. So the Middle
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  Speaker 2: East at the moment is in the most precarious position
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  Speaker 2: with this cease fire that's only been about twelve or
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  Speaker 2: twenty four hours old. Who knows if it will hold.
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  Speaker 1: This is a war that was supposed to be over
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  Speaker 1: in a few weeks, maybe a month, maybe a couple
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  Speaker 1: of months. Donald Trump's timeline seems to have changed over time,
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  Speaker 1: and also his motivations for this war seem to have
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  Speaker 1: changed over time as well. It's never been exactly clear
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  Speaker 1: what he considered to be the goal, apart from denying
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  Speaker 1: Iran a nuclear weapon. That's the one thing I think
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  Speaker 1: that he's been very consistent on over time. He has
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  Speaker 1: said that part of his motivation was to support Israel
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  Speaker 1: zooming out now and looking at the relationship between Donald
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  Speaker 1: Trump and Benjamin Netanyaho. Netanyahu is under pressure from right
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  Speaker 1: wing members of his own war cabinet. He's facing an
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  Speaker 1: election later this year. It has to be held by
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  Speaker 1: Octo twenty seven. What is driving the tension between Trump
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  Speaker 1: and Netna? Who? Is it just that Trump wants the
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  Speaker 1: war with Iran to be over and Netna who doesn't.
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  Speaker 2: Necessarily, Yeah, that's spot Uncleaire. Basically what's happened is both
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  Speaker 2: have very different domestic constituencies At the moment. The war
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  Speaker 2: is very unpopular in the United States. Gas prices have doubled,
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  Speaker 2: the midterm elections are coming up for Trump in November.
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  Speaker 2: It's a bad place to be to have an unpopular war.
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  Speaker 2: The straight up for Moors is still closed, and so
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  Speaker 2: there's a global energy crisis as a result. So Trump
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  Speaker 2: wants out of this war, and increasingly he wants out
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  Speaker 2: of this war, and you could see him almost every
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  Speaker 2: day narrowing his window of what will be an acceptable
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  Speaker 2: deal with Iran. Now, Benjamin Netna, who is in a
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  Speaker 2: very different position, as you say, He's got an election
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  Speaker 2: coming up. Hezbola keeps firing drones and missiles at northern Israel,
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  Speaker 2: very dangerous for the people living up there. There's huge
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  Speaker 2: political pressure on him to keep attacking Hezbollah. There's no
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  Speaker 2: demand in Israel for him to stop doing that. So
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  Speaker 2: he's under pressure to take a hard line against Hezbollah
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  Speaker 2: in Lebanon, and Iran has said to Trump, that's not
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  Speaker 2: happening if you want a piece deal for me. So
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  Speaker 2: the two leaders who both entered this war very much
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  Speaker 2: like Siamese twins side by side, say Aim get rid
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  Speaker 2: of the Iranian regime, are now pulling in opposite directions Claire.
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  Speaker 2: And it's a really fascinating and hugely important tussle of
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  Speaker 2: wills between the two of them, because Trump says to Netta,
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  Speaker 2: who I call the shots? He does what I want
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  Speaker 2: him to do, which is I think is a very
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  Speaker 2: dangerous thing to say to someone like Benjamin Nettner, who
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  Speaker 2: you know, who's default position is to they're on the
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  Speaker 2: side of aggression generally. And so Netna, who defied him
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  Speaker 2: by firing back at Iran. For the moment, Netanya, who
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  Speaker 2: has listened to Trump, is stopped firing. But I really
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  Speaker 2: think this is a very precarious situation. I think there's
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  Speaker 2: no guarantee that Benjamin Netna, who will not go his
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  Speaker 2: own way against Hesbola in Lebanon, despite what Trump says.
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  Speaker 1: Really, if you look at the calculus for Benjamin Netanya,
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  Speaker 1: who he's got pressure from the right wing members of
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  Speaker 1: his cabinet, as we said, he's got villagers in northern
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  Speaker 1: Israel whose lives are intolerable because of constant attacks from Hezbela,
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  Speaker 1: of course funded by Iran. What do you think, cam
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  Speaker 1: about whether or not Benjamin Netanya, who really had a choice,
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  Speaker 1: was it a real option for him not to fire
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  Speaker 1: back at Iran.
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  Speaker 2: I don't think it was a real option for him.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, I just think that Iran constantly calls for
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  Speaker 2: the death of Israel, the eradication of Israel. I think
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  Speaker 2: no Israeli prime minister could actually not fire back at Iran.
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  Speaker 2: I mean the place where Netna, who could potentially show
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  Speaker 2: some more restraint is in fighting hes in Lebanon in
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  Speaker 2: the sense that he's got troops occupying in southern Lebanon.
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  Speaker 2: At the moment, he's been hitting Beirute and so he
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  Speaker 2: could dial back on that. But you can't do that, Claire.
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  Speaker 2: If Hesbella is still firing drones and missiles. And the
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  Speaker 2: great unspoken thing here which you're barely see in the
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  Speaker 2: in media coverage, but it's very true. Is Iran could
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  Speaker 2: stop this tomorrow by telling Hesbla not to log missiles
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  Speaker 2: and drones at Israel. It has the power to do that,
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  Speaker 2: and it's not doing that, which makes you really wonder
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  Speaker 2: what Iran's big picture position is here. Is it to
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  Speaker 2: actually try to divide Israel and the United States, which
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  Speaker 2: of course is to its benefit if it does that.
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  Speaker 1: Iran has really mastered asymmetric warfare in this conflict. It
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  Speaker 1: had already done a great job of using proxy forces
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  Speaker 1: to fight a major power, using Hezbla and the Hoofies
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  Speaker 1: and Hamas to attack Israel in ways that cost it
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  Speaker 1: very little and achieved great results for it. Now it's
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  Speaker 1: using relatively inexpensive drones that need to be shot down
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  Speaker 1: by either Israel's iron dome or by incredibly expensive missiles
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  Speaker 1: that then deplete America's stocks of missiles. Is that the
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  Speaker 1: pressure on Trump that it is costing American absolute fortune
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  Speaker 1: monetarily to fight this war, or do you think it
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  Speaker 1: more that Trump needs a win here and is exhausted
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  Speaker 1: by the closure of the Strait of horm More is
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  Speaker 1: the pressure that's putting on American gas prices, for example.
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  Speaker 2: I think Trump is strategically trapped here. He wants to
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  Speaker 2: use leverage against Iran, but that leverage is really dwindling.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, Iran controls the straight of Houmas and effectively
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  Speaker 2: global energy prices. That's a massive stick to wield over
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  Speaker 2: Donald Trump. Trump knows that the repeated bombings in the
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  Speaker 2: campaign when they occurred, has degraded Iran's military, but it
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  Speaker 2: hasn't stopped their ability for asymmetric warfare. It hasn't stopped
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  Speaker 2: their ability, as you say, to keep firing drone. So
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  Speaker 2: I think there's a great question mark as to whether
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  Speaker 2: a renewed military campaign by the US and slash even
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  Speaker 2: alongside with Israel, would really create the conditions for peace
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  Speaker 2: or a peace deal when that hasn't been created in
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  Speaker 2: the past. So I think Trump's problem is he just
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  Speaker 2: hasn't got that big leverage over Iran that he needs
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  Speaker 2: or wants, and the Iranians know this, and I think
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  Speaker 2: that's why they're dragging their feet in discussions, especially when
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  Speaker 2: it comes to the nuclear question. When it comes to
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  Speaker 2: the conditions for reopening the Strata Homuz and from their
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  Speaker 2: iron clad demum, which they've actually strengthened in recent days
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  Speaker 2: as a red line that Israel must not attack Hezbollah
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  Speaker 2: as part of the peace deal. And that's something that
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  Speaker 2: makes it very awkward for Trump. So I just think
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  Speaker 2: Trump absolutely wants out of this war, and he doesn't
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  Speaker 2: know how to do it at the moment, and he's
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  Speaker 2: got a ran playing around and making it difficult for him.
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  Speaker 2: And he's also got Israel to some degree to worry
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  Speaker 2: about because Benjamin Etnia, who he can't absolutely rely on
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  Speaker 2: him doing precisely what he wants.
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  Speaker 1: Back when the Iranian government was firing on its own
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  Speaker 1: civilians when they were protesting in months past, Camp Donald
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  Speaker 1: Trump said, rise up, take names. We will come to
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  Speaker 1: support you if the regime murders you in great numbers.
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  Speaker 3: Finally, do the great, proud people of Iran. I say
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  Speaker 3: tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand.
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  Speaker 3: America is back in you with overwhelming strength and devastating
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  Speaker 3: for us. Now is the time to seize control of
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  Speaker 3: your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future
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  Speaker 3: that is close within your reach.
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  Speaker 1: That did happen and Trump did not come to their aid.
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  Speaker 4: Then.
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  Speaker 1: I think he thought once the Ayatola had gone, that
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  Speaker 1: that would be the end of the regime in Tehran.
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  Speaker 1: That hasn't happened either. Did Trump underestimate Iran and the
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  Speaker 1: control that the regime has or was that a legitimate miscalculation?
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  Speaker 1: Do you think you know one of those things that
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  Speaker 1: in war it was very difficult to tell how much
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  Speaker 1: control they really had.
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  Speaker 2: Look, I think it's one of those things where intelligence
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  Speaker 2: in these sort of conflicts is often very bad, very unreliable.
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  Speaker 2: I think Trump absolutely underestimated. I think that Niahu also
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  Speaker 2: underestimated the durability of the Iranian regime. Once you knocked
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  Speaker 2: off a few of their leaders, more people came up
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  Speaker 2: to replace them. And also the notion that you could
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  Speaker 2: just wipe out their big ballistic mishost and their drone stocks.
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  Speaker 2: That just didn't happen, And so it was miscalculation. And
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  Speaker 2: the notion that people would come out in the streets
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  Speaker 2: and have a general uprising against the government. I mean, look,
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  Speaker 2: the massacres against those people by the authorities in January
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  Speaker 2: were really horrific. It's a reporting that thousands of anti
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  Speaker 2: government protesters have now been killed across the country and
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  Speaker 2: the death toll is climbing. Donald Trump, and you know,
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  Speaker 2: you can understand why people would not come out in
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  Speaker 2: Iran while they felt the regime still had some sort
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  Speaker 2: of grip, because they're just asking to be killed or
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  Speaker 2: imprisoned in large numbers, and they just simply haven't come
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  Speaker 2: out and done that in the way that Trump and
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  Speaker 2: then who expected. So there's the third a miscalculation, and
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  Speaker 2: you put it all together, and a lot of the
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  Speaker 2: assumptions just haven't happened. And that's why you've seen Trump
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  Speaker 2: very much change his concept of what victory looks like
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  Speaker 2: here from regime change. Remember he was even saying, I
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  Speaker 2: will choose Iran's future leaders, et cetera, et cetera. And
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  Speaker 2: now we've shrunk it to the point of reat and
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  Speaker 2: illustrative from was which was in anyway before the conflict,
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  Speaker 2: and having a nuclear deal which at least delays rather
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  Speaker 2: than eradicates Iran's plans for a nuclear program and ultimately
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  Speaker 2: a nuclear weapon.
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  Speaker 1: Benjamin Netner, who has proved that he won't do exactly
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  Speaker 1: what Donald Trump tells him in all circumstances. If at
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  Speaker 1: the election that's coming up. Someone else gets elected, like
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  Speaker 1: you to my ben Gavier or someone else who's more
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  Speaker 1: conservative or more right wing than Benjamin Netn, who Trump
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  Speaker 1: will have absolutely no control. Where does that leave Trump
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  Speaker 1: now in his negotiations with Iran? Does that mean he
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  Speaker 1: has to try and get a deal even harder, maybe
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  Speaker 1: making some concessions that he didn't necessarily want to make
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  Speaker 1: to get a deal before that election happens.
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  Speaker 2: I think so. But the trouble for Trump is that
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  Speaker 2: he can only go so far with giving concessions. I mean,
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  Speaker 2: he's pretty much down to a bare minimum now. Reopened
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  Speaker 2: the STRATIFORMWS and have a situation that delays the acquisition
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  Speaker 2: of a nuclear weapon, as opposed to him saying he
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  Speaker 2: wanted to completely end that concept as a possibility. Now,
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  Speaker 2: the bottom line for Trump here is that he has
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  Speaker 2: to get a better deal on nuclear weapons than did
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  Speaker 2: Barack Obama in the twenty fifteen nuclear deal with Iran,
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  Speaker 2: because Trump has been so critical of Obama in relation
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  Speaker 2: to that deal, saying it was way too soft on Iran.
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  Speaker 2: What the hell did he think?
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  Speaker 4: He's like a baby. He's like a baby.
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  Speaker 2: But we're sort of entering the zone here at the
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  Speaker 2: moment with negotiations where Trump may not get much of
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  Speaker 2: a better deal, and he knows that if he doesn't,
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  Speaker 2: it will be widely viewed by his supporters and his
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  Speaker 2: critics as a complete failure of this conflict?
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  Speaker 1: Does that show, just finally, Cam that Barack Obama in
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  Speaker 1: fact got the best kind of deal that was available
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  Speaker 1: given the as you say, the durability of this regime.
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  Speaker 2: Well, at the time, a lot of Iran Hawks thought
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  Speaker 2: that deal was far too weak because it had a
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  Speaker 2: sunset clause as well. Fifteen years Obama argued that was
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  Speaker 2: the best deal you could reasonably get.
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  Speaker 4: We went about trying to negotiate a diplomatic agreement that
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  Speaker 4: would get the enriched uranium out of Iran, and we
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  Speaker 4: pulled it off without firing a messle wet.
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  Speaker 2: You could argue that it was a fairly weak deal. However,
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  Speaker 2: what we've seen transpire now with this conflict suggests that
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  Speaker 2: maybe it was a better deal than Trump admitted at
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  Speaker 2: the time, and maybe a lot of the Iranian hawks
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  Speaker 2: admitted at the time. I mean, it wasn't a perfect deal,
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  Speaker 2: but it certainly limited the enrichment program for Iran for
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  Speaker 2: quite a few years until Trump pulled out of it,
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  Speaker 2: and then Iran pressed fast forward on their enrichment. So look,
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  Speaker 2: this is a big moment for Trump because he's already
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  Speaker 2: lost quite a bit of credibility in the way this
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  Speaker 2: conflict has panned out. If he can't get some sort
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  Speaker 2: of deal that is better than that, then yeah, it
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  Speaker 2: will be a big blow for his prestige and frankly
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  Speaker 2: for his legacy, I think.
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  Speaker 1: Carmon Stewart, thank you very much, pleasure. Cameron Stewart is
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  Speaker 1: The Australian's chief international correspondent. You can check out all
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: his reporting and analysis right now at the Australian dot
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  Speaker 1: com dot au