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Conference Previews: Pac 12/Big 12 Futures · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

• 0:07
  Hello everybody. Welcome to episode two of
• 0:10
  Targeting Winners, Your home for successful college football
• 0:13
  betting. Play along with us, grow your
• 0:15
  bankroll, have some fun and we are here.
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  Today we're going to talk about the Big 12 and the PAC 12.
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  If you want to see or hear in this case what we did on our
• 0:25
  last podcast, you can check us out on Spotify, on Apple,
• 0:28
  Google, iheart. And you'll see our picks for the
• 0:31
  for the playoffs and our best bet for the playoffs and the
• 0:33
  teams to make it. And we're going to move into the
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  Big 12 and the PAC 12. I think we'll do the PAC 12
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  first and we're going to go into to over to Darren.
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  We're going to shoot it over here.
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  Obviously with USC, they're probably the early favorite to
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  win the PAC 12. How do you see things going out
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  so far? Yeah, the PAC 12 to me looks
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  like a pretty pretty top heavy conference here.
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  I think the four best quarterbacks, no coincidence
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  just happened to be on the top four teams here.
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  You know, I'm not sure how you break down these conferences,
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  but when I look to to make a bet here for a conference champion,
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  I'm just trying to find the two teams that are going to get
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  there and just try and basically bet on the one with with the
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  higher odds so. Yeah, I'm looking at the
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  breakdown here. Pretty much neared it down to
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  probably the same for that you did USC, Utah, Washington and
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  Oregon. I did take a little bit of a
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  look at Oregon State and UCLAI. Don't know what your thoughts
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  are there, but Oregon State. I can't trust DJ Ugalele
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  transferring over from Clemson until he shows me something.
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  UCLA losing Dorian Thompson, Robinson.
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  They very well could be starting a freshman at QB.
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  And then again, like I said, the top 4QB's in this conference or
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  head and shoulders above everybody else.
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  I don't know if you had any thoughts on on the Beavers or
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  the Bruins for this year. Oh, not so much for the Bruins.
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  I'm not. I'm really down on them this
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  year. One thing I noticed something
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  else We disagree on you. I'm a Southerner now.
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  So it's Oregon down here, I guess up there it's Oregon.
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  So that's. I did not major in English, so I
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  apologize. Definitely wouldn't.
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  No, I'm still more leaning towards either USC if they can
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  outscore everybody because their defense is very suspect and God
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  forbid if they get hit with some injuries, they're really going
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  to be in a in a tough spot. The second-half of their
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  schedule is pretty brutal after the bye week.
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  So I'm staying away from UCLA. I'm going to stay away from
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  Oregon, even though it's, you know, they're a flashy team.
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  But I for my money, I like the four to one odds on Washington.
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  They had seven starters coming back on offense, 7 coming back
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  on defense. Quarterback is coming back,
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  which is very important. If the defense steps up a little
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  bit, even just a little bit, they are going to improve a lot
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  and I think they can sneak up and get some teams and the
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  schedule looks pretty good. I believe they have Oregon at
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  home, so I I'm seeing Washington at least getting to the game and
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  once they get to the game, all bets are off.
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  And I like the offenses here. I think they could outscore if
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  they hold. If they hold, you know, USC to
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  38 points, I can see them winning, you know, 4838,
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  something like that. So that's where I'm, that's
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  where I'm leaning towards Washington at 4:00 to 1:00.
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  Yeah, I mean that's that's that's an excellent bet.
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  You make some good points there. The only the only thing that I
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  couldn't put Washington, I I mean, I agree that USC is going
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  to be one of the two teams. I mean, they've got the reigning
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  Heisman Trophy winner and I think all around they have the
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  best team. Even though, like you said,
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  their defense is is a little suspect, the thing with Utah and
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  their defense, I mean it's really, really good And they've
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  got 9 starters coming back on that side of the ball.
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  We all know what they can do to USC and while everybody doesn't
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  really think of them for offense, they actually average
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  only one point less a game than Washington did.
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  So I mean, offensively they can hang.
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  But then again, this team last year did lose to Oregon State.
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  They did lose to UCLA. You know, I I couldn't trust
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  them on a on a week to week basis.
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  So yeah, I couldn't think of who to put in there with USC but you
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  certainly make some good points with Washington.
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  But me, myself, I did pass on that.
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  You know we don't ever tell everybody who'll listen to us.
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  Don't ever force a bet just to have some action.
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  I I couldn't bring myself to to get it down to two teams.
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  So I did pass on this conference.
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  Right. Yeah.
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  Utah has a habit of sneaking up on people.
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  I don't think they'll they'll win it, but they'll they'll ruin
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  it for somebody. They'll ruin the party.
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  They're not going to be the life of the party.
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  But yeah, and they've won it the last two years, so it's hard to
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  bet against them. But and yeah, they'll probably
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  prove everybody wrong. They'll win it again.
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  And you. Know well, I hope not for your
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  sake. You got?
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  Yeah, right. I want to get my money.
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  I want to get my 4:00 to 1:00, but.
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  Yeah, I'm sticking with Washington.
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  I think the offensive is too explosive and the defense just
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  has to improve marginally at best.
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  Yeah, and they actually have a little bit of a schedule
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  advantage over Utah. Also, they they get home games
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  with Oregon and Utah. Their only Rd. game is at USC,
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  whereas Utah's only home game, you know, and talking about
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  these other BIG4, of course. So Utah's only home game is
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  Oregon. I think Oregon's A-Team I trust
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  the least out of the four. That's probably a Bow Nicks
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  thing. But they do have to go to USC
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  and Washington as well, so. I can totally see it being USC
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  Washington, and I do hope for your sake that at 4:00 to 1:00
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  odds, the Huskies come home for you.
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  It'll be interesting to see with Lincoln Riley once again how
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  many points they actually can score at USCI.
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  Don't think they're going to improve enough to to to
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  outscore. They're not going to outscore
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  everybody. They're going to get stopped.
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  And yeah, I can't, I can't say enough.
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  For me, the easiest bet Washington at 4:00 to 1:00.
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  Yeah, I mean, I you've said nothing that would make me want
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  to disagree with you. Much of the entertainment of
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  who's ever listening. I and I I can't.
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  Part of me wants to. But yeah, I I I can't.
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  I I will be staying up late rooting for Washington every
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  week, because if you didn't bet for them, I'd be in bed by 8:00
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  PM. But, you know, now I guess I
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  can't. So, yeah, go Huskies.
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  Right. Go Huskies, here we go.
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  Get that money. So, all right, well, that that
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  was pretty easy. The next conference is not going
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  to be so easy. The Big 12.
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  Is the dumpster fire. I do not like this at all.
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  It's so hard to pick. I can't see one standout team.
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  You can make arguments against every team.
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  So what's your strategy here looking at the Big 12, All
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  right? First of all, we don't call it a
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  dumpster fire. We call this a betting
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  opportunity. So let's, you know, let's be a
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  little more upbeat about the the fire here that we're talking
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  about. And you're correct, you can poke
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  holes in any of the 14 teams that make up this conference.
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  However, the one with the fewest holes by far are the Texas
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  Longhorns at plus 1/20. I think that this number is
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  correct. You know they don't have Bijon
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  Robinson coming back, but that's okay.
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  The other ten offensive starters are running back.
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  Usually is a little easier to replace.
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  Although I don't think you can really replace a Bijon Robinson
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  defense has seven people coming back as well they they've
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  probably got the strongest position groups of every
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  position group in the conference I.
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  Can totally see them getting to the conference title game now.
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  They haven't won it since 2009, I believe so.
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  I mean, I don't know what it is they get to the end and for
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  whatever reason they just can't get to the to the last two.
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  But I think a lot of this conference has weakened a little
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  bit. You know, the next 5 betting
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  choices are on their schedule, but I think they're a lot deeper
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  and more talented than than just about all those teams.
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  So I do have them. As much as I hate picking the
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  favorites, I do have them. Making up one 1/2 of the
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  conference title game here. As far as the rest, like you
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  said, everybody else has got their money on Oklahoma, it
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  looks like plus 350. I just need to see something
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  from the defense here. I mean, it's as simple as that.
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  I've been. It's preventable.
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  Second year last year, they started off great.
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  Dylan Gabriel got hurt. He missed two games, but even
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  when he came back, you know they still lost five others that he
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  was part of. So you know, this is all on the
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  defense. They brought in a lot of
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  transfers. If the defense steps up, yes,
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  sadly it'll be Texas and Oklahoma and I won't really
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  care. But until I see them actually
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  play some defense, I, you know, I'm, I'm not picking them to win
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  it. I am a little curious about your
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  thoughts with Texas and Oklahoma.
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  You know, we all know they. Petition to get out of this
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  conference and go to the SEC. Now they're leaving a year
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  early. I think there's maybe a little
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  something to these teams given Texas and Oklahoma their best
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  shot and then some when they come to town.
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  What do you think there's anything to that or am I just
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  nuts? Oh, if there's a lot to that, I
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  think especially the fan bases, I think they're going to be, you
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  know, dial it up. Dial up to 11 Spinal Tap.
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  Just crank it up there one more. You know, every whiteout game,
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  every pack, the house game, every whatever game is going to
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  be for Texas is going to be for Oklahoma.
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  Yeah, they're they're going to want to leave them with a little
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  parting gift. I don't think as far as Texas is
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  concerned, they're going to get too many parting gifts, but I'm
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  sure Oklahoma is going to get more than a few.
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  I'm kind of down on them this year.
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  Part of the reason of my dumpster fire analogy here is
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  that you've got four teams that are just joining.
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  So you kind of are moving up in class.
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  I guess you can say you've got two teams.
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  You know you have Baylor and you have Kansas that are pretty much
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  one man shows. You know you got Jalen Daniels
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  in Kansas. If if he didn't get hurt last
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  year, who knows. But he was playing out Santa.
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  He was carrying the team. You know Richard Reese down at
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  Baylor, he's he's going to be. You know Super Steve, probably
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  the next be John Robinson. Even though even though Texas
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  lost be John Robinson, you're going to see all the fantasy
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  football dynasty players clamoring for that pick and he's
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  losing that that great of a player.
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  But they still have the offensive line coming back.
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  They got think they have four of the five starters for Texas and
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  they know how to coach their offensive lineman down there in
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  Texas. So plenty of pancakes to go
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  around for everybody. As far as Houston, one of the
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  new teams, I think they'll be the best of the four new teams.
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  But I'm not. I'm not putting, I think Gus
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  Mazon's going to need a couple couple seasons in the Big 12.
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  You know maybe K State I think will probably be.
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  I think it ultimately it'll be probably K State and Texas.
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  But I don't see the lines big enough to, to put it put a bet
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  down. I'm going to pass on this one.
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  I don't, like you said before, I don't want to force a bet.
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  Similar to the racetrack, you know, I'm sitting there in the
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  first race, I'm like, well, how about I pick three, I pick four,
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  pick six, and then all my money's gone because I forced
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  it. So I'm going to lay off the Big
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  12. I know you said you had a bet in
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  mind, but you haven't mentioned it yet.
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  I have not. I'm just going to take a SEC
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  here and go through some of the the holes I poked and all these
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  other contenders here just real quick.
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  So I don't want to, you know, have this get boring here, but
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  Kansas State, third betting choice of plus 450.
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  Deuce, Vaughn's gone. I mean, that's going to be a lot
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  harder to replace then, then, then it's going to be to replace
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  Bijon Robinson. I mean, he just did everything
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  for them, so I don't like them. Texas Tech again, they've
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  they're already given up almost 30 points a game last year with
• 11:53
  only five starters coming back on defense.
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  And again, three of their wins last year came in overtime.
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  That kind of stuff usually isn't sustainable from one year to the
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  next. A lot of time that that flips.
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  Baylor at plus 1600 Also something similar.
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  Only 5 defensive starters coming back and only 12 total which is
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  actually tied for the third lowest in this conference and
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  only one of those is on the offensive line.
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  You know how I love as many offensive lineman coming back as
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  possible. TCU also at plus 1600.
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  Again they came from behind a lot of times last year and you
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  know only 10 starters total. Granted, they did make the
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  national championship game last year, but just a lot of losses,
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  including offensive coordinator Garrett Riley.
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  And if you listen to our first show, you'll know how much I
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  love him going to Clemson anyway.
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  I mean, they'll still be a competitive team, but they're
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  not going 11 and one here. You had touched on Kansas.
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  I think the odds certainly kind of reflect how bad they are
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  defensively. They're at plus 3500.
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  They started off great five and O.
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  If you had a over on their win total bet from last year, which
• 13:01
  was 2 1/2, you catch that by the third week of September.
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  Congratulations. But they also finished one and
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  seven and their defense does not look to be any better.
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  And I'm just going to rip you off a few numbers here.
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  How bad they are defensively. The last eight games they
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  allowed 38523516, and that was to an Oklahoma State team
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  without Spencer Sanders, 435547 and then 55 in the bowl game.
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  All right, so this, this defense is not good.
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  It's not getting better. They go to Texas.
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  They also have to play Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Kansas State.
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  Yeah, that. That schedules brutal.
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  So, yeah, so I mean, we touched on the returning starter
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  concerns on on a handful of teams here, some schedule
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  concerns that I have for some of these top teams.
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  Just quickly. Kansas State goes to Texas Tech
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  and Texas. They also have to play TCU and
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  Baylor. Again, Texas Tech has to go to
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  Baylor and Texas and then they have to play Kansas State at
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  home. Baylor's got to go to K State
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  and TCU, even though I don't think TCU is going to be great,
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  but still. And then home against Texas and
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  Texas Tech. And then TCU at K State, at
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  Texas Tech, at Oklahoma, home against Texas and Baylor.
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  That's part of the reason I think TC is not going to be very
• 14:18
  good. So after poking all those holes,
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  you may have noticed I left one team out and this team would
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  happen to be my pick to win the Big 12 at an insane plus 5000.
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  We need Jimmy Johnson because how about them Cowboys?
• 14:34
  That's right. The Oklahoma State Cowboys at
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  plus 5000 is my pick to win the Big 12.
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  So you know, and I think that these odds are this high because
• 14:44
  of how they finished last year. I mean, they were totally beat
• 14:47
  up. They lost their quarterback.
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  They lost a lot of people on the defense due to injuries.
• 14:53
  I mean, this line just doesn't really make sense to me here.
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  We all know Mike Gundy. Our favorite coach of all time.
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  I'm a man. Darn right you are Coach Gundy.
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  That boy can get offense out of anything.
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  I mean, even with all the issues, they still averaged 30
• 15:09
  points a game last year, so I'm not worried about their offense.
• 15:13
  Alan Bowman coming in as a QB transfer?
• 15:15
  He's look good. This spring, Michigan State
• 15:18
  running back Elijah Missile transferred over to the Cowboys
• 15:21
  along with Holly Gordon. That'll be a solid RV combo.
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  They did lose a lot of receivers, but their top
• 15:26
  receiver as far as receptions and yards go is back on the
• 15:29
  team. And even with the defense, as
• 15:32
  horrible as it was last year. Still, they only gave up 28
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  points a game, which is better than, you know, Oklahoma and
• 15:38
  then Oklahoma's a + 350 second choice to to win the conference.
• 15:42
  So you know, despite the fact that you know, they lost a lot
• 15:47
  of people and they weren't healthy.
• 15:49
  You know, let's just take a peek at the schedule here.
• 15:51
  Now, we've talked about there's only 9 conference games.
• 15:53
  There's fourteen teams in this conference.
• 15:55
  Some people have harder schedules than others.
• 15:57
  So the teams with the five highest betting odds, Iowa
• 16:01
  State, BYU, Cincinnati, West Virginia and Houston, that's
• 16:05
  five of the nine games for the Cowboys this year.
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  So that's possibly five wins. Also, they do have Oklahoma, but
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  Oklahoma is a home game and they do have Kansas State.
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  That's also a home game. So they don't have to play TCU,
• 16:20
  they don't have to play Baylor. And most importantly, they do
• 16:23
  not have to play Texas. So this schedule's nice.
• 16:27
  I think they're being overlooked because of the disaster they
• 16:29
  were at the end of last year. I know plus 5000 is probably
• 16:33
  like, you're crazy, It's not going to happen.
• 16:35
  But my thought is if they do get there, then that sets us up for
• 16:39
  a nice little hedge around the end of the season and and
• 16:42
  hopefully if Oklahoma State's playing well, we can get into
• 16:44
  that topic a few months down the road.
• 16:47
  But. Love the schedule.
• 16:49
  Love the coach. And most importantly, I love the
• 16:53
  schedule. If I didn't say that already,
• 16:54
  but they can. If they could stay healthy.
• 16:57
  Seven and two is certainly possible.
• 16:59
  And I think with all these teams beating up on each other, seven
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  and two could easily represent this conference in the title
• 17:05
  game. So I already got it locked in.
• 17:08
  I I have Oklahoma State at plus 5000 to win this conference.
• 17:13
  Yeah, that's true. All they have to do is get in
• 17:14
  the game. You know they make it to the
• 17:16
  championship game and then all bets are off there sort of speak
• 17:19
  but you know Ashley would be putting a hedge on but but you
• 17:24
  know, who know, who knows what can happen one game one night
• 17:28
  Oklahoma State. Yeah, the Oklahoma State
• 17:32
  Oklahoma game. Huge rivalry game that's that's
• 17:34
  in Stillwater. So Oklahoma's got to come to to
• 17:37
  the Cowboys house. You know, I think the other Rd.
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  game is Kansas. We already talked about how.
• 17:42
  How. For their defenses, I It's set
• 17:46
  up if they can stay healthy. I know that's probably the same
• 17:48
  for every team on the planet, but I just think they're those
• 17:53
  odds are way too high considering what their
• 17:54
  schedule's like. I mean, Gundy's been there,
• 17:56
  what, 9. It's his 19th season.
• 17:58
  I think the next longest has been like 8 years.
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  So I mean this guy's got a coaching advantage over
• 18:04
  everybody else and the dude can get offense out of whatever he's
• 18:07
  got out there. So you know, she's just stay
• 18:10
  healthy. Enjoy this nice easy schedule
• 18:12
  that you got. At least go seven and two, man.
• 18:15
  Give me give me some reason to glow, I think.
• 18:17
  That'll get them in together. I think it will.
• 18:19
  I think a lot of these, I think Texas could easily go 8 and one
• 18:22
  or nine and oh, which means all these other teams that play
• 18:25
  Texas are going to have a loss. You know, I think your K State,
• 18:29
  your Baylors, your Texas text, they're all gonna end up beating
• 18:31
  each other and you know, seven and two could easily get it
• 18:34
  done. So that's what I'm hoping for.
• 18:37
  Also nice reference here to Jimmy Johnson.
• 18:40
  Well, you know, I've been a Cowboys fan for a long, long
• 18:43
  time. I'm a Homer.
• 18:45
  Well, yeah, but I mean, I didn't.
• 18:47
  I have nothing really in love with Oklahoma State other than
• 18:50
  when I saw the plus 5000, you know, my chin hit the floor.
• 18:53
  But I was like, you know what's funny?
• 18:55
  When I, when I bet this one of the other books had the same
• 18:59
  number, they actually dropped to 4000.
• 19:01
  So two of our three books are sitting at 4000 instead of two
• 19:04
  of them sitting at 5000, so. Glad I got the bed in when I did
• 19:08
  because. Maybe it was your bet that shut
• 19:10
  the line. Well, I doubt that.
• 19:12
  But maybe Jimmy Johnson through. Maybe Gundy's got something.
• 19:14
  On There you Go another another Homer reference.
• 19:17
  Yeah, even though I'm sitting here with my Florida State
• 19:19
  kool-aid that my name Marty said I was drinking last last
• 19:22
  podcast. So Marty, cheers.
• 19:24
  Here's to you, man. You.
• 19:25
  Were drinking. Like I said, at least you backed
• 19:27
  it up with facts. So I mean, I got, I gotta give
• 19:29
  you that. It's not.
• 19:30
  You're just not like you were sitting there with, you know,
• 19:31
  with the headdress on and you had a big spear that was on fire
• 19:36
  and you chucked it at the laptop or anything, so.
• 19:38
  You know that my wife would advise against.
• 19:41
  Yeah, she would Chuck it at you. And then I'd be doing this solo
• 19:43
  and that's no fun. All right.
• 19:46
  So that's our, that's our breakdown here.
• 19:48
  So let's do a quick recap of what we did.
• 19:50
  Nice small recap this week here, so.
• 19:53
  I have a one unit play on Oklahoma State and again I did
• 19:56
  get plus 5000 that is still currently available at
• 19:59
  DraftKings and Tim has a one unit play on Washington at plus
• 20:03
  400. We got that at that Rivers.
• 20:06
  The other books we were using are you like plus 340 + 375.
• 20:10
  So shop around for the highest number you can get.
• 20:14
  If you've got that Rivers, they're still offering plus 400.
• 20:18
  Nice. Well that you know this is going
• 20:20
  to be one of our shorter podcasts only we're only what
• 20:23
  1520 minutes in. So that's a sounds like a good
• 20:27
  spot to wrap up. I think next time let's go into
• 20:30
  the group of five, we've got the five conferences going on so it
• 20:35
  would be good. A lot of interesting plays on
• 20:37
  teams moving around, teams moving in, teams moving out so.
• 20:43
  And just one more point I'd like to bring up.
• 20:45
  If you're wondering, hey, you forgot about the SEC, the ACC in
• 20:47
  the Big 10, we actually didn't. If you want to go back and check
• 20:51
  out our first show, episode one, our national championship
• 20:55
  futures, a lot of the teams we covered were from those 3
• 20:57
  conferences, and we really didn't see anybody beating them.
• 21:00
  So we're not betting on those 3 conferences either.
• 21:03
  So we just, we just covered the other Power 5, the other two
• 21:07
  Power 5 conferences on this show to end up covering everything,
• 21:10
  so. These are the only two
• 21:12
  conferences we actually feel good about making a bet on.
• 21:15
  So, all right, well, we're going to wrap it up here.
• 21:18
  We are getting close to, I think we're 50 days away from college
• 21:22
  football. So I hope everyone has a good
• 21:24
  night. Thank you all for listening and
• 21:26
  we'll see you next week.