Latest / Beliefs, Ballots, And BullDawgs / CFB Week 1
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- CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Screen, great. Greg: Hey, what's up everybody, and welcome back to the latest episode of Whiskey and Winners. This is college football week one, which seems asinine because we just had a college football last week. I'm over the week zero stuff. That just doesn't make any sense. Last week should have been week one. This should be week two. But anyway, ⁓ before we really get into the meat and potatoes of tonight, we we do have a very important disclaimer. If you don't drink or gamble, don't start. Don't be fooled by how glorious and amazing these two guys make it look. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Yeah. Greg: Gambling is bad. Drinking is bad. And combining the two while listening to three idiots talk about college football, not recommended by responsible adults. So let's make this perfectly clear. Whiskey and winters is entertainment only. We are not financial advisors. We're not even professional gamblers. And we're most definitely not doctors. You get that thing checked. And based on some of the decisions we've made in our lives, We probably shouldn't be trusted with a Ouija board, much less your sportsbook account. So if you choose to drink, drink responsibly. If you choose to gamble, gamble responsibly. And if you choose to do both while listening to us, that's between you, your bank account, and Jesus. I can't help you. But seriously, don't bet your rent, don't bet your mortgage, don't bet your kids' college fund, and for the love of everything holy. Don't cash out your 401k because Brian said FSU had a good week of practice. It ain't a lock. There ain't no locks. We're here to have fun. We're gonna talk some football, talk some junk, and probably make you laugh along the way. Will we give you a winner? Perhaps. If we do, say you're welcome and move on. If we give you a loser, you didn't hear it here, I didn't say it. This is whiskey and winners, entertainment only, bet responsibly, drink responsibly, and please remember above all else. We're all idiots. Now let's talk some football. All right, we guys, we made it. We are here for actual week one, real football, a full slate of football to bet. ⁓ and we know that's gonna be fun. With this full slate, we get to do something dangerous. We're gonna pretend like any of the three of us know what the hell we're talking about with college football before we've seen much of anything. So before we get into the board. I'm gonna introduce the team again. We've got Brian Nobles. Brian is the man who watches about 47 hours of film a week and somehow thinks that makes him qualified to tell you where to put your money on Saturdays. And Chad claims he doesn't chase bets, but somehow by noon on Saturday, he's guaranteed to have a 14 leg parlay he's praying about. But either way, hey, fellas, football is back. I'm the resident voice of reason, which is dangerous as hell because we all know I'm unstable. But let's get ready. Brian, what are you excited about this weekend? CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Yeah. Brian: I'm excited about having football on Thursday through Monday. So we got some games stacked up Thursday through Monday. We're gonna talk about a lot of those games. So I'm just ⁓ it look looking forward to ⁓ parking my ass on the couch and ⁓ watching some football. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Mm. Greg: No doubt. Chad, what you excited about for this weekend? What are you hoping to see? CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Agreed with Thursday through Monday. Also, there are some big name teams playing some garbage name teams. And ⁓ the books gave a lot of points out, so I kind of like it. Greg: Well, it is a ⁓ it is a full slate, and we're going to ⁓ we're gonna try to run through the games that we feel like have some sort of viewing interest first and foremost. ⁓ and for each of those games, we're we're gonna be trying to look at four questions. You know, what what's the game, what's the number, what's the story, and do we like it? ⁓ and let's remember we talked about this on the first episode. We're giving you guys advice, we're giving you guys insight, we're giving you guys some analytics and some information that we put together. A lean is not a play. We're not putting $100 on something just because we have a gut feeling in our stomach. Usually that's just indigestion. First game Thursday night. We talked about it. We led into it. We're excited about it. Colorado and Georgia Tech at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta. The ⁓ the last numbers I saw had Georgia Tech minus six and a half, total sitting around fifty-one and a half. Y'all know my love for the Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket, so I'm gonna go last on this one. Brian Nobles, tell us who you like. Brian: Primetime returns to Atlanta. I mean, that's gonna be a crazy environment. I went back and forth on this game. I'll tell you this is one of the hardest games. I'll give you a couple things that I'm looking at in this game. ⁓ Colorado brings offensive coordinator Brendan Marion in. I think Brendan Marion's a superstar. I wish we'd have hired him last year in Tallahassee. I was pulling for that, but we ended up with Gus Miles on, and here we go. ⁓ he runs the go go offense, known for that. It's a triple option compared with a power spread. He's got Julian Lewis as a quarterback. He's perfect for that offense. I feel like he's going to come out pretty good, but it's gonna he's gonna got to get his feet wet. It's game one. So there's always gonna be some wrinkles in that. One thing about Georgia Tech, they lost offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner to Florida. He went with Summerall to Florida. They had the twelfth ranked offense last year. That was a high powered, fast paced offense. This year, their new offensive coordinators are a little slower paced. And we know they don't have Haynes Keen back. So for me, game one, knowing you got two new offensive coordinators on both sides. I know Georgia Tech's got Mendoza at quarterback, but it ain't the same Mendoza. I'm gonna make an official play of under fifty-one and a half in this ball game. Greg: Like it. I like the a analytics there. It's good ⁓ good information. Chad, ⁓ you got anything on Georgia Tech and Colorado? CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: ⁓ every play ⁓ that I'm gonna talk about is a play that I have money behind. If I don't have money behind, I'm gonna say I do really didn't have interest in it. I'm a pass. ⁓ this game I'm on 100%. I'm on Georgia Tech. I bought it down, my book had it at minus seven. I bought it down to minus six and a half. Home Open in Atlanta guys, it's a better setup. it's a control line of scrimmage. Alberto Men Mendoza guys, I mean, look at his brother, what he just did. You think they're not having conversations on the phone? He hasn't learned from his big brother. They're not looking at some game film together. Of course they are. This kid, you know, his his big brother just left Indiana, went to the pros. ⁓ so I'm gonna run my money with ⁓ Mendoza. There's a few reasons why. Mendoza, ⁓ of course. younger brother high Heisman Trophy winner. let's see college production two hundred and eighty six passing yards, five T D's, one ⁓ interception, hundred and ninety rushing yards. And high school guys, I know it doesn't you you might not care about high school, but this kid at Christopher Columbus threw for four thousand five hundred and ninety six passing yards. Even though they're at a pri primar pri excuse me a majority running school at Georgia Tech. You think they haven't brought him in to throw the ball some with that triple I? Kiss thrown forty five thousand career passing yards, guys. Come on. 57 touchdowns, 12 interceptions. Mendoza to me is a factor in this game. The running game is strong as hell. ⁓ Colorado ⁓ QB ⁓ Mr. Salter. ⁓ he's got legitimate experience. He's he's athletic as hell. For him, it's like fourteen hundred and fourteen passing yards, ten TDs, seven interceptions. Why I'm not taking Colorado? Salter is dangerous, but Colorado needs explosive plays. Georgia Tech's got a pretty solid defense. ⁓ Georgia Tech can force Colorado to substain a long drive. ⁓ I trust Georgia Tech's ability to establish the run early on. And ⁓ I'm not gonna I'm not moving off Georgia Tech. That's where I'm sticking. I'm taking ⁓ the Mendoza family and I'm gonna ride this ⁓ train to the bank, guys. Final score, I've got thirty-one twenty-three. Lock me in. Greg: This is this is a matchup that you know, and and as a a devout Christian, I try to profess a world where as little hate as possible. But I hate Deion Sanders and I hate Georgia Tech. But I will tell you, I I I don't I I don't think it's really competitive. I I I got tech minus the six and a half. I I'm just gonna hold my nose and try not to really pull for ⁓ but assume CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Me too. I hate to say that. No, no, no, no, no, hold on. I'm good with ⁓ the Sanders part. Greg: They're going to cover a touchdown in the end and the bank account's going to be a little fatter, but I'm not going to enjoy it. But yeah, I think Tech minus six and a half is the the right play. I I would lean towards the under as well, just early in the season. I do think Tech's going to want to run the ball. ⁓ Justice Haynes will will get his share of carries, and I think they'll they'll eat up some clock. I I'm with you. I see maybe, you know, 27 17 type games, something like that, I could see. ⁓ but yeah, give me give me Tech lay in the points and ⁓ God, I that I I hope I don't have to take them a whole lot this year. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: I do want to add this though, Greg. I want to add this. Anybody who's following any plays that I'm doing, I've learned a long time ago. I've burnt been burnt so much off hooks. I'm always buying a hook. Even if you say that number does not make sense buying the hook. I'm always buying the hook up or down. So just know that's my realm where I'm at. Disclaimer. Greg: Game number two on the board for a We we appreciate gambling advice from the guy that took a moneyline team. He said the other team was gonna win. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Bitch, they should have won. Outright. Greg: You're not wrong. All right, game number two on the big docket Saturday, Auburn and Baylor. At the Mercedes-Benz Dome, right up the road in Atlanta. I've seen numbers all over the place. Six and a half, seven, seven and a half total, fifty-nine and a half, sixty, somewhere around there. Auburn and Baylor's a couple of big names. I don't know that either of these teams is as good as the name might suggest they are. What you got? Chad, we'll start with you on this one. Auburn, Auburn, Baylor, what you think? You got any thoughts on this one? CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: ⁓ you're gonna need to come back to me because I've got it based off Thursday to Monday and it I maybe it didn't put in order for me. Greg: Okay. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: So let me define. Greg: Brian, what you got ⁓ what's what's your notes saying on a Auburn and Baylor game? Brian: Originally this game was supposed to be in Auburn, got moved to Atlanta. I would feel a lot better about it if it was in Auburn and not neutral. But other storylines, Dave Randa is on the hot seat, obviously. His defense have been nothing like they were when he was a defensive coordinator at LSU. So it's what happens when you get a different level of athlete. ⁓ new head coach Alex Golish brought in Byron Brown with him from USF. He's always had a great offense, knows how to run a un up tempo offense. And Byron Brown's been running that offense for him for four years. So he knows the offense. They did lose Cam Coleman to Texas. I think that's a big loss. But I still feel like they're going to put up points. ⁓ Brown's a player. I mean, he's a thousand yard rusher, three thousand yard passer. He's a very mobile quarterback. One stat on that. Last year, Baylor ranked 122nd in the country against the run, and most of that was against running quarterbacks. So I would like I said I'd feel much better if this was in Auburn, but I do like Auburn here. And another thing with Baylor is they got DJ Blagway at quarterback who is known to turn the football over. So I feel good about my Auburn minus six and a half and Alex Golett's first year. So I'll take Auburn minus six and a half with my official play. Greg: I'm ⁓ I'm in agreement with on that one, Brian. I've got I've got Auburn as a play. ⁓ and and I'm also I I'm I'm gonna roll with a play on the under. I saw the I just looked, I saw it at fifty nine and a half. I mean I I don't see to get to sixty, ⁓ I don't see that happening in this game. I don't think Baylor gets barely north of twenty, maybe to twenty four, and I don't see Auburn as an offensive juggernaut to carry the rest of the load. ⁓ give me Auburn I I don't like the seven and a half. ⁓ Chad would tell me to buy it through to six and a half, but I don't want to lay one forty five or one fifty. So I I'm gonna assume Auburn gets it done by a touchdown plus a field goal or more. And I I think Auburn wins by double digits. So not really too much heartburn and laying the seven and a half. ⁓ and then I think the under fifty, fifty nine and a half comes home as well. Chad, were you able to find your notes on this game or you wanna just make something up? What? CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: I'm gonna make it up as I go. ⁓ I'm not betting the game, but if someone wants a little bit of what I looked at, my pick if I had to lean somewhere was Baylor plus seven and a half. Career 4179 passing yards, ⁓ at Florida 2264 passing yards. ⁓ we're looking at Auburn quarterback Byron Brown, three thousand one hundred and fifty eight passing yards. All the numbers I'm looking at, guys, points from me toward the over. But I have basically stepped out of this game because I don't have a strong feel. But Auburn has the athletes and ⁓ Byron Brown. ⁓ they can absolutely hurt you, but this is a new coach. ⁓ it's a new rebuilt roster. DJ Langley has already played the SEC football. I don't need Baylor to win. I just say give me seven and a half points, buy it up to maybe eight. My models had the final score at thirty-one ⁓ Auburn, Baylor twenty seven. Greg: Yeah, I don't ⁓ I don't know how to tie this into an actual gambling read, but I'm gonna try. I remember Byron Brown watching him last year at South Florida because I seem to have fantasy props and player projections in him every tagum weekend. Dude, it's the illegitimate dual threat quarterback. And I just think in that system at Auburn, I I just think Auburn's gonna have better athletes. I think it'll be a tight competitive game. I I certainly get the logic in taking anything north of a touchdown with the point spread being seven and a half. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Yeah. Greg: I just think I think it's gonna be one of those that I think it will hover around that four to seven point range. I still see Albert coming home with a double digit win when it's all said and done. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Over for sure. Greg: All right, we are move on. We've got the biggest game of the weekend. Sorry if this goes in the opposite order of y'all's schedule, but we got Clemson and LSU in Baton Rouge, Tiger Stadium on a Saturday night. If you've never gone, you need to do it. That is that is an absolute bucket list. Tiger Stadium on a Saturday night is a different type of it's a different type of college football environment. ⁓ I've seen LSU around nine ten point favorites, total around fifty-one. ⁓ Lane Kiffin is making some noise. He is getting some attention. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Wish I could. Brian: Mm-hmm. Greg: I don't know if anybody really knows how good this LSU team is this year. but I think Clemson has been moving in the wrong direction. I like Dabo as a dude. I think Dabo's a solid guy. I think Daboo's a good coach. I just think Dabo's trying to play a game that you can't compete in right now. And I just don't I don't like that. So I'm gonna lead the way on this one. I I'm taking LSU and I'm laying the points. ⁓ I I think LSU probably cruises to a pretty comfortable win in this one. I don't think Clemson gets more than thirteen on the board. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Ave Marion Sad. Greg: All right. We'll ⁓ we'll let you come back and we'll let you hammer the point home. Brian, give me your read on LSU Clemson. Brian: Like you said, Lane Kiffin's first game, night game at Baton Rouge. ⁓ Clemson bringing in an extremely young offensive line with a new quarterback. So this is gonna be a tough environment. One big thing is LSU, even though Lane Kiffin came in, he was able to retain Blake Baker as his defensive coordinator from last year. That was at LSU last year. He is gonna be very aggressive and cause Clemson all kind of problems. So with this one I feel like Clemson is their their strongest unit Clemson's got is defense. So that makes me lean towards playing the under. My play on this one is gonna be under fifty one and a half. Like you said, thirteen points. I see the game being about thirty-one, thirteen, something like that. One stat I can give out there for everybody to keep in mind is betters love to bet the over in a lane kiffin ball game. Okay, so in the past five years, out of forty two ball games against power four teams, his overs have gone over twenty, but his unders have gone under twenty-two times. So I think this is gonna be number twenty three. I'm taking under fifty one and a half. Greg: As I scroll through my notes, I see I got an official play. I'm on the under there with you. So I and again, I I don't necessarily like laying double digits on what is a relatively low total. Usually those things don't correlate. ⁓ but I I do think it'll be a relatively, you know, I think it'll be kind of a rock fight defensively. I'm with you. I I don't I just don't see how Clemson's gonna put a lot of points. That LSU defense has got some athletes. That stadium is going to be rocking on a Saturday night with a new head coach with the whole world against them with all this stuff. I wouldn't want any part of being the orange tigers walking into Baton Rouge Saturday night. All right, Chad, tell us why we're wrong. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: I can't. ⁓ I will tell you my official pick is Clemson. I have a rather lengthy ⁓ analysis, so bear with me. I am gonna take Clemson plus a 10. ⁓ why I want the 10. ⁓ the biggest thing here, Clemson's defense is good enough to keep this from becoming a runaway. Clemson allowed only twenty point five points per game in twenty twenty five, held eight opponents to twenty or fewer points ⁓ per game. Brian: Mm-hmm. Mm. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Allowing just thirteen point two points slash per game over the final four games. So Clemson quarterback, Christopher, I don't know how to pronounce his last name. Was it Vizina? Vizina? Vizina? Yeah. ⁓ this is a risk. Clemson's replacing Kate ⁓ Klubnick, which I've bought tons of his auto one on one signature graded cards. That's my dude. ⁓ Vinza is Vizina is ⁓ Brian: Close. Greg: Could be. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Projected starter. He has very limited college experience. But one performance that matters against SMU last year, guys, he went 29 for 42. He threw for 317 passing yards. He threw for three touchdowns. He lost the game, but the quarterback himself played well, right? ⁓ Clemson career numbers enter this game. It's 64 105. 598, excuse me, ninety-six yards, four touchdowns, one interception, ⁓ sixty-one percent complete ratio. High school, no one gives a shit about that, but I'm still gonna throw it out there. 1800 passing yards, guys, sixteen touchdowns. He rushed for three hundred and forty one yards, which is why I'm leaning. I wanted to bring this up for a reason. Guys, this guy's got legs. He's rushing for three hundred and forty one yards. Sixteen TDs, eleven rushing touchdowns. that was his junior year, actually. ⁓ so to me, in a game that shows ten, I've always read ten is like the dead number that Vegas catches people on all the time. And so you're like, damn, do I need to tease it? Do I need to move it? I've seen a lot of sharp say, Don't touch a ten number. ⁓ Clemson Clemson's offensive weapon, TJ Moore. More returns as a leading receiver. Fifty-two receptions, blah blah blah, four TDs. LSU, Sam ⁓ Levitt comes back. ⁓ if we look at the other side, some stuff I'm gonna skip over. I'm gonna get down to the very bottom. LSU has a quarterback advantage, guys. No doubt about it. ⁓ and I think LSU is probably gonna win the game outright. I think we know that. It's minus ten. ⁓ I'm not gonna give the ten points up. ⁓ I'm not going to pretend otherwise, but getting ten points with Clemson defense that basically has held teams to twenty the twenty and a half last year. I don't see why we're looking at giving up more than ten points if you're holding teams of twenty to twenty half points. So that's where I'm gonna lay or stick my ⁓ sword in the ground. I'm gonna take the ⁓ points. Greg: Will I will readily admit that the and I don't like agreeing with you, but the logic and the analytics is sound. There is there is part of me that kind of felt like as soon as I saw that 10 pop, it almost felt like a contrarian play of goal. Man, the easiest thing in the world to do is take a team like Clemson plus ten points, going, That's a good defensive team. That's Clemson, man. They gonna get blown out anywhere. I don't know. I it's ⁓ I'm I'm rolling with the points. I'm glad we got a little ⁓ a little love on the other side for Clemson, but ⁓ we'll we'll we'll see. We'll I can't wait to see that. That's Brian: Yeah. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: But did we pick the same team? All right. Greg: Huh. Yeah. Brian: They got blown out a couple of years ago, if we remember. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Well, you tell me a couple of years ago. Brian: Yeah, I guess Greg: All right, well Yeah, I know I know Georgia laid one on ⁓ Brian: That's what I'm talking about. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: ⁓ here we go. Greg: Well, ⁓ according to my notes and and next on the rotation here, they still play Pac-Twel football. I didn't know. Who knew? ⁓ we got UCLA and Cal. Somewhere in Cal Memorial Stadium out in Berkeley, they're gonna they're gonna throw their condition of West Coast football. I'm seeing UCLA minus one and a half, total around fifty-three and a half. Not really sure anybody gives a shit. I don't have a play on this. If I was playing it, I'd take the home team at a short number. It's a dog, probably just take the money line at plus one twenty-five, plus thirty and Hope the Cal Bears can ⁓ channel their inner Marshawn Lynch and show me some love. ⁓ but I got nothing on this one officially. I don't do West Coast football. Brian, what you ⁓ what you thinking about there on the late night Saturday slate? CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Yeah. Yeah. Brian: Let's don't forget that Cal plays in the ACC somehow. So they're not a pack. So there it two new head coaches, Bob Chesney from ⁓ is a is a star on UCLA side, and then you got Tosh Lupoy. I know you remember watching him play football for Cal years ago. Well he's brought a ton of excitement. You know how some stadiums Greg: Nah, it's still packed twelve to me. No, I remember him from being an elite recruiter at Alabama. Brian: Well, he was a good football player too. But anyway, you know how a lot of stadiums they can't sell seats, they tarp the s the seats off. Well, Cal removed them seats. That's how how how excited the people are out there. I'm not got a fish. Could be true. They hey they can compete in the A C C now. ⁓ historically, a Cal coach, when they make their f debut, they win the ballgame. So CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Yeah. Greg: Maybe their fans don't realize they're in the ACC either. Brian: I'm not I don't have official play in this game because I have no idea what you're gonna get from UCLA. ⁓ I may have a play on this later that we'll hear about later on in the show. I don't trust for UCLA, I don't trust Nico Abiyaba at quarterback at all. So I if I was to make a official play in this game, I would just have to take the under fifty-five and a half, hold my nose and CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: What? Brian: feel like Cal's defense is gonna hold ⁓ down and and Nico's not gonna score, but I'm staying away from this one too. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Nico Nico is a gentleman. Greg: Well all right, well I I I'm gonna I'm gonna finally admit that I don't pay any attention to the emails y'all send me before the show, so I don't have any idea whether Chad has any real insight on this game or not, 'cause I don't read any of that. ⁓ but I'm gonna assume that this seems like the kind of Chad Longager right up his alley, garbage football play where he's gonna have something official. Chad, tell me how we can make money on this UCLA Cal game. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Guys, I'm on UCLA plus two, excuse me, minus two. you can buy it down to minus one half, whatever you want to do. ⁓ I got all these stats. I got so much stuff in front of me, but I've got a bunch of stuff. Memorabilia, like I'm a Nico fan. He's a legitimate quarterback, guys. I can talk about the other team and their quarterback and what he's done. Career for Nico. Four thousand eight hundred and fifty-eight passing yards, thirty-four touchdowns, twelve interceptions. Guys, he has a sixty-four percent completion ⁓ ratio. He has nine hundred and thirty-four rushing yards, ten rushing TDs. And we're talking about this game. He's got twenty-five career starts. He also had a hundred and twenty yard ⁓ a hundred and twenty-eight ⁓ yard rushing performance against Penn State in twenty twenty-five. ⁓ this isn't a Cal team facing an ⁓ inexperienced quarterback. ⁓ to me, Nico is for real. So I like the game. I haven't sprinkled money on it yet. Usually I tell you if I if I talk about it, I'm on it. I'm just not scared of Nico. I think I like him and the number, and that's where I'm gonna where I'm rolling with it. The final score, though, here's where. Greg's gonna fucking do his shit. It's got my my models have Cal twenty seven, UCLA twenty six. So I'm still taking Nico. I'm still gonna roll with the points, the minus points. Brian: You you making that an official play or is that a lean? Greg: Shed. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: That's gonna be a lane for right now. I might jump in and like do a little short, but right now, that's a lane. Brian: Ha ha. ⁓ We gotcha. Greg: All right. Well, I'm gonna assume that it is highly unlikely that we have any female viewers or listeners, but if we do, please wanna y'all chime in and tell me how to understand this dude, 'cause that's the most female logic shit I've ever heard in my life. My model says this team's gonna lose, so I'm gonna bet on him as a favorite and lay the points. Great, I get it. Yeah, it makes sense. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: It's a it's like a two to three point difference, brother. I'm just telling you I don't agree what ⁓ what my model's saying. Greg: Yeah, I had to cuss my bottle out several times. No worries. All right, let's move on to a real football game. Notre Dame and Wisconsin. Saturday or Sunday night, 7 30 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. ⁓ this line has moved all over the place. I think it opened around Notre Dame minus 16 or so, and now it's up to 20 and a half. ⁓ over under is another. So this is a weird one. You got a pretty widespread with a pretty low total of 47 and a half. I'm gonna fall for the suckers play. I'm gonna take Wisconsin. Give me the Badgers plus 20 and a half. I'd Not real comfortable with it. I'm not gonna lie. The model liked it. I just think Notre Dame is usually overhyped. I know CJ Carr is the real deal. I know they're trying to make a statement and they need to. I'll take a backdoor cover if that's what I gotta get. But I think the Badgers keep it within three touchdowns. Give me the Badgers to keep it close enough to come home and cover that 20 and a half. Chad, what you got on this one? CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: I've got aile Eileen Wisconsin plus twenty and a half. Quarterback ⁓ Colton ⁓ Joseph. ⁓ this is not an experienced quarterback. However, his career numbers, four thousand two hundred and fifty one passing yards. I'm gonna stop there with a sixty percent completion ratio. So he's not ⁓ he's not new to throwing the ball, guys. And if you gotta throw the ball and move it down there to cover ⁓ these plus twenty numbers. Which is where I usually make most of my money. Again, it's a lean for me. Notre Dame, they're gonna win outright. CJ Carr, we know that guys. There's no moneyline play. There's no bullshit behind this. ⁓ I've got the final score being around. It shows thirty four to thirteen, thirty one to ten, somewhere around there. Notre Dame wins eighty two percent of the time moneyline. Wisconsin covers ⁓ the plus twenty and a half, fifty eight point eight percent of the time. So if I had to bet I would lean plus a point, I'd buy the hook, but yes, Notre Dame's a better team. Not an argument. We know who's gonna win, but the argument is it's twenty one points in a forty seven and a half point game. Wisconsin has the experienced quarterback in a top four rush defense from last year, guys. So a top four rush defense from last year. I didn't do the the work on how many transferred out, how many went to NFL, but I should have, but I'm still going to stick with the batchers. Greg: Now I a I'm not a over overly analytical person and I'm not a real big numbers guy per se, but the I mean the old adage is true. When you when you've got that big of a spread on that low of a total, ⁓ mathematically it just seems like your advantage is to take the dog and take the points. Be nobles, talk some sense into us and tell us tell give us some good info on that ⁓ that Notre Dame game. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Yeah, shows thirty to sixteen. Brian: There is a massive talent gap in this game. So, I mean, the 20 and a half, that's a lot of points. I understand why y'all are on that. I stay away from that kind of that kind of stuff. Notre Dame's roster's loaded. They returned eight starters on an elite defense that they had last year. They got left out of the playoffs, as you knew last year. They will embarrass Wisconsin. They're they're gonna put a ⁓ put a number out there that's gonna be crazy. This is probably the third or fourth. Best gat team they play on their schedule. So they're gonna need this. Everything else they play is Cape Calk other than Miami. So I feel like they're gonna make a point in this game. I didn't wanna play either side of it. So I'm doing a what I like to do in a game like this. I'm gonna take Wisconsin's team total for the game under fourteen and a half points. Greg: As soon as you started giving that analysis, I started thinking that sounds like a team total play. I just thought you were going the other way. I thought you were going to take the Notre Dame over. Cause I'm with you. I think they'll try to put some points on the board. I think they want to get CJ in the in the Heisman running. ⁓ I think Notre Dame will try to make a state, but I just a and maybe it's old school hardheadedness. I still just think of Wisconsin as a team that ought to be able to keep it close to just the way they play. And and if the total's forty seven and a half, give me give me the twenty and a half as as a as a buffer and I'll take my chances. Brian: Yeah, there's a there's a good shot we all three hit. I just them w like you said, wanting to get CJ Carr, the stats, I just didn't want to put it put anything down on either side 'cause they could try to score a late touchdown in the end to go over the over that number. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: So Could see them trying to run the the points up and getting CJ Carr. I could see that every game, them trying to do that. Could they easily put up forty five to fifty points alone if they kept him in all four quarters? Yes. But let's say let's ask this question, guys. I want to pose this to you. If it is thirty nine to ten and it's the fourth quarter, is CJ Carr ⁓ going out in the fourth quarter under center? Greg: I I at the risk of saying something terrible if he does, I hope he gets hurt. Brian: I'm not I'm not ever gonna wish that I'm not ever gonna wish somebody to get hurt. I feel like that he will go out in the ballgame and hand the ball off, maybe, but we'll have to see. I don't feel like Wisconsin's got any chance to score over two touchdowns in this ballgame but Greg: That's just bad karma. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Kick me kick me off. Greg: This is this is a hundred percent one of those games and and I will admit it. So look, if you're listening to this and you're following along, but don't follow me on this play because I know what I'm t this is this is a this is a helmet game. This is me just believing that there's something in the University of Wisconsin, some element of pride in that Big Ten team that used to be a pretty good football team, somewhere in the the ghost of Barry Barry Alvarez and Brett B. Lamar, or they're gonna keep this under three touchdowns and not get embarrassed. ⁓ but If if we roll around to Monday morning and I'm waking up to a thirty point Notre Dame victory, I'll text you Brian and say you were right, I was wrong, and it is what it is. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Brian, I tell you what, I do a side play with you on a Venmo for ⁓ just something small, say ten bucks. I bet Wisc Wisconsin puts up fi fourteen points plus. Fourteen or fourteen points plus. Brian: Mm. Greg: We're gonna have to get some sort of like ⁓ challenge button or something. Brian: I got the fourteen and a half, so if you give me that fourteen and a half, we can You can't buy you can't buy a hook down in a team total. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Nah, I'm not then I then I'll buy the hook down. You're not gonna put a hook on. Greg: Ha ha ha ⁓ CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Come on, man. I mean we're looking at Notre Dame to thirty, Wisconsin sixteen. I ran that Brian: Why why would I bet you fourteen when I can bet the book fourteen and a half? I'm gonna take my four No I'm gonna take my fourteen and a half. ⁓ CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: 'Cause you just said they wouldn't even score twice. You said you just said they wouldn't score two touchdowns. If you're saying they won't score two touchdowns, I say they will. Greg: All right. All right, I'm grabbing the reins and bringing this. We're we're bringing this back under control. All right, we got another neutral site game that I think should generate some interest. We got Louisville and Ole Miss Sunday night, 7:30 in Nissan Stadium in Nashville. ⁓ Ole Miss around a touchdown favorite, six and a half or seven, total around 55 and a half. ⁓ Louisville's a ranked football team. Ole Miss has a quarterback that I'm a big fan of. We had to play him twice. I watched Trinidad Chamblers turn into damn superman. Brian Nobles, you were there with me in that playoff game. We couldn't stop him, and we have an elite defense. I don't know how Louisville plans on stopping him. Give me old miss and I'll lay the six and a half. Brian, what do you ⁓ what do you think? Am I am I an idiot and I'm just too ⁓ too emotionally baggaged by by getting our butt beat last year? Brian: I mean, I can see where you're where you're going. They both have high powered offenses, new OCs, but Ole Miss didn't change the system. They're running the same system that they were running, so it fits Trinidad perfect. Then like me and Chad talked about as one of our players in the preseason show we did, Keywine Lacey is one you can't forget about either. ⁓ Lincoln Keholtz for Louisville and you got Isaac Brown at running back. I like Jeff Braum as a head coach in a game that he's an underdog in. I feel like the over in this game is probably gonna get hammered because of Trinidad Chambless. With me, with Jeff Brahm, I'm looking at probably if I had to bet I'm gonna do a lean on this game, 'cause if I had to bet it I'd bet the f the fifty five and a half under. But I can't do that officially with Trinidad Chambless at quarterback. I think this is gonna be a game that I'm gonna be looking at to bet live. Greg: I I'm with you on that total. It it kind of as soon as I saw that number, my initial think was, shit, I want to go over that because that's two quarterbacks. I think could put some points on the board and Brahm coaching. But then you start thinking, okay, well, that if if I immediately lean towards one side, I almost always go, Well, what is the other side? What am I missing? I'm with you. I think I'd lean the undernounce just based on that number, going, if you're telling me that you give me two quarterbacks of that caliber with a Brahm coaching, Louisville and Ole Miss, neither one of them really known for a lot of defense. And they're scared to hang a sixty number. I'm with you. Something something fishy on that number. Give me I would lean the under. It wasn't official play for me. ⁓ my only official play on this was the old miss minus six and a half. But I I I agree with the lean. I'd lean under. I'm not sure why, but I it smells like playing the under on that. Chad, ⁓ tell me what you think about Old Miss and Louable. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: ⁓ this is a pass game for me. I didn't put anything on it. But if I was leaning, it would be Louisville plus seven, plus seven and half. ⁓ my models have the projected score Ole Miss 31, Louisville 27. Miss has a better quarterback, no doubt, and maybe the best running back in the game. I'm not ignoring that. I'm just laying like seven against Louisville on the neutral field. Like, give me the touchdown. ⁓ by the hook and let's just see what happens. ⁓ I don't have any expectations for this game. I'm probably not even gonna watch this game, but if someone is wanting to get a little action and maybe ⁓ yeah, I was maybe thinking that too. I'm just putting it out there for ⁓ I'm not going through like the whole paper stat. Greg: Yeah. And and I and I can readily admit as a dog fan that I might be having some emotional PTSD from just having no answers for Trinidad Chambless last year at all. No, no answers at all. All right, before we get to some ⁓ some other games, we will we'll talk a little Monday night football. This one hits close to home for a particular ⁓ player on this game. Dok Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida. I saw a three and a half pop earlier, and I ⁓ I'm not gonna lie, Brian. I'm gonna get away from the analytics here. So is three and a half pop? I just jumped on it, took the nulls because give me the home team at three and a half, and I will. ⁓ we got Monday Night Football, got the SMU Mustangs favored on the road, dealing with some potential quarterback injury issues. Nobody's real sure how quickly Kevin Kevin Jennings is gonna heal. ⁓ I don't know. It seemed like an odd number. It opened at one and a half from where I saw at first, and now it's up to three, three and a half everywhere. Three and a half seems like a great number, but I've got some trepidation on the whole three and a half, seven and a half, ten and a half numbers. I think sometimes they hang those just to just to mess with you. But B, man, I everything in me didn't want to do this to you. I didn't want to give you the kiss to death, but I had to. Give me the give me the Florida State Seminoles plus the field goal and a half. I gotta do it. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Bet you do. Brian could have went six six and one last week, guys. Excuse me, six and ⁓ Six and ⁓ Brian: Yeah. Greg: We are ⁓ we Chad Chad I'm gonna kick it to you because I'm gonna I'm gonna let him stew on that 'cause he knows my record and he knows if I'm putting money on his team, it probably ain't a good thing. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Yeah, let's do that. Let's do that because he could have went six and ⁓ he couldn't stay away from Florida State. And that's why I'm not fucking with Bama ⁓ this week. So ⁓ I got I'm gonna give you my in depth. I'm on this game, guys. I got money on it. Florida State is plus three. I'm taking the money line. I don't want the points. ⁓ this is my favorite bet on the board. I know that sounds crazy. Florida State quarterback, Mr. Daniels. Daniels was ⁓ 17 for 27 for 202 yards against New Mexico State. He threw, excuse my phone, guys. Give me just a second. That's not inducive. ⁓ he threw for ⁓ one passing TD, one rushing yard, one reception. FSU won 3417. before become before ⁓ coming to FSU, Mr. Daniels threw for 4,783 career passing yards. ⁓ didn't like a lot of what I saw last week. It doesn't stack up to that number, but he still has 11 rushing touchdowns, which is a number that I'm really like looking at right now. SMU quarterback ⁓ Kevin Jennings, the reason FSU is plus three, it's not like an automatic lock. Jennings is good. Don't get me wrong, guys. ⁓ he's 300 for 454. Three thousand six hundred and forty one yards, blah blah blah, sixty-seven percent. Jennings is healthy enough to play for an injuring excuse me, for injuring his throwing hand during camp. So he has a little bit of injury coming into week one, guys. Does that mean anything? No. Cortisol shots, everything comes into effect, and they're they're great. But to finish this up, SMEU's ⁓ biggest strength, the entire offense structure around Jennings. ⁓ they're gonna play fast, they're gonna spread out FSU, they're gonna test the seminals communication, and we just saw that become a problem for Florida State against New Mexico State last week. Is communication, the defense. From what I saw, I watched the highlights, they were kinda like looking at each other like, fuck, what do we do like in this moment? ⁓ Mexico State University ⁓ covered ⁓ the ⁓ what was it, ten of seventeen third downs? ⁓ converted, excuse me, and FSU had several communication breakdowns coverage. Here's where I'm at with the game, guys. I've got Florida State winning 27 to 24 outright. SMU has the quarterback to scare you off this game and off of taking the three. ⁓ when Greg and I 20 years ago were sitting in the gym, we'd be like, I think I like the minus three and a half. Like we need to be on the favorite. And we're trying to figure out a reason why we shouldn't take the favorite. And I've learned over the years, you should be taking dogs. Kevin Jennings threw for three thousand six hundred and forty one yards and twenty six touchdowns last year. But already watched four to six play. I know it they need to fix. I think they're gonna fix it, ⁓ this past week during ⁓ practice, I think over the weekend, I think during travel, I think watching tape and ⁓ they know what they gotta do when they come in here and ⁓ I'm on the Seminals. I'm riding with Be Real and ⁓ I think they win the game outright. Fuck the points. Greg: All right, Brian, do we get three way agreement on on your boys? What do you think? Brian: I hope that ⁓ Chad's right for sure that we win the ball game. ⁓ what I told y'all in the last one when we did the recap was I'm not betting on Florida State again until they prove me otherwise. So I will not be betting on Florida State again. Some things I will say, I went back and rewatched the game, obviously, you know, the first game through, you know, aggravated with everything. The offensive line didn't play as bad as everybody says that they played. Greg: Mm-hmm. Brian: Ashton Daniels held on to the ball a lot longer than you should hold on to the football. So I feel like he'll I'm hoping he gets rid of the ball faster this this week. He also did not run the ball at all, which is what he came in there to run the ball. I mean he ain't going to the NFL, so we're gonna run his ass and into the ground, but so to speak, so he should run. ⁓ huh. Yeah. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: They don't. Greg: Mm-hmm. He's been known to do that. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: What are your thoughts on the defense, Airbnb? Greg: Hey Brian, can I pause you for a second? I'm sitting here in the office, you know my house, and I just watched my truck pull out of the driveway with two women in it. Should I be concerned? Brian: With the two women I know that's in the truck, probably so. Greg: You know my truck. I'm not sure either one of ⁓ can drive that thing. All right, sorry for interrupting. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: ⁓ what? Brian: Yeah, you good getting back to the point. I feel like we will be able to run the football against L against SMU. Of course they're gonna have a better front than New Mexico State. But Usmani Croma and Sam Singleton and Wisner, they ran the ball pretty well. Kruma Kroma didn't have a or Cromye didn't have a good a lot of good holes, but he showed the talent of why that Georgia was trying to recruit him to begin with. So CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: No let ⁓ go. Greg: Big fan. Brian: I feel like Kevin Jennings will have some success against our secretary. Like Chad said on third down. We were terrible on third down. That's gotta get fixed or it will get ugly in Tallahassee. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Can you talk about that for a minute, Brian? Like I watch I didn't watch the the entire game, but I've got all my small shorts and I'm looking at like highlights from defense and I'm looking at FSU and I'm like, What the fuck are we doing? Like, can you like speak to that? Like what did you see? Brian: Ten ten ten out of seventeen that they converted on third down that ⁓ New Mexico State was able to convert. The kicker to that that what really pissed me off when I was watching it was the average of those third downs was thirty nine. Florida State against S against New Mexico State in a third and nine should not be ten out of seventeen conversions. That was the problem. They gotta fix that. If they don't fix that, it should it should have been CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Can't do that. Maybe if it's like what three a three a six, third down a six, maybe that's okay. Brian: Right. I'm looking at more when you've got ⁓ average thirty nine, it should be about a four out of seventeens. So if they do that against SMU, they'll get run off the field. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: So is it the problem is the problem the the the secondary or is it the linebacker core? Like where's the miscommunication happening this game? Because I'm I'm like back and forth. I could like re pull a trigger on this and I need like I already gave you where I'm going, the money line, but I'm so scared about this defense right now. Brian: The the the ⁓ huh. One one thing I will say, there's a ⁓ a guy I listened to ⁓ pretty religiously. It's a Florida State guy. He's ⁓ Jason Staples, he gave a stat out earlier about that. The quarterback for New Mexico State got rid of the ball in like two point three seconds, don't quote me. So he was quick. That would have ranked last year in the top two of the N C double A and getting rid of the football. So It's hard to lock your coverage up that fast when you're playing kind of you're you're sitting back waiting at the at the line trying to make a play on a third and nine. That could've been a problem is how quick he was getting rid of the football. So I'm hoping that they will fix that problem as far as locking the guys up and 'cause you know SMU's fixing to try to get rid of the football quickly 'cause they just saw what it did with New Mexico State getting rid of the ball quickly. So CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Were there tons of ⁓ quarterback line change at like the quarterback changing them play at the line or no? Or is it just like running gun? Brian: No, no. He was one it was one read throw. The tu one touchdown he threw, he threw it off his back foot. He just got rid of the ball, threw it to a area and guy was open. So I don't feel like CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: I mean getting getting around the ball in two but two seconds, that's like ⁓ getting close to NFL time, guys. Brian: That's quick. It was ⁓ they said the guy said it was a tenth of a second quicker than Carson Breck Beck last year. So my official play on this game, I'm not betting on Florida Stemma, bet SMU's team total over six and a half points for the first quarter. Rhett Lashley and Kevin Jennings, I feel like they're gonna get a touchdown in the first quarter. Rhett Lashley is known for CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Yep. Absolutely. Brian: Scoring quick. They're gonna be have scripted plays all week, all summer long for this. They'll get a touchdown in the first quarter. I feel like that's a lot. Greg: And as for betting on your own personal team, that is not a bad way to go about it emotionally and logically. Get that bet out of the way. If it hits, it hits. You got a little money, then you can just enjoy the game. If it doesn't hit, you can be pissed about it, but then you get back to focusing on just hoping your team wins the game. Because I will tell you Chad's a Bama fan, I'm a dog fan, you're an old fan. It does suck sometimes when you've got money on your team and you can't just enjoy the ending of a game and a victory either way because you're worried about cover to spread or whatnot. So Brian: No. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Yeah. Greg: All right, that takes care of Florida State and SMU. And I know I told you guys I was going in chronological order, but apparently my computer doesn't know what chronological means. So we're going go back to Saturday afternoon, and we're going to go to Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, North Carolina, where the Duke Blue Devils are favored by a touchdown and a half over the two lane green wave. See that total around 51, 51 and a half. ⁓ Duke is coming off an ACC championship. Apparently that's a thing. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Mine either, trust me. Greg: They have ACC championships and let Pac 12 teams play in a conference. Who knows what's going on now? I'm not gonna lie, when I first saw this, my my my first thought was simply how is this Duke football team favored over anybody by more than a touchdown? So we know what that means. I'm taking I I I'm taking Tulane plus the seven and a half. I just don't think Duke's a touchdown better than they are. I think Tulane might come in there and throw a wrench and things and surprise them outright. Brian: Ha ha ha. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: What? Greg: But I'm I'm going with the the Green Wave plus seven and a half up ⁓ up there against against the Duke's on Saturday. Brian, what's ⁓ what's your lean on that one? Where you running? CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Dookies. Brian: On that one, I mean, you obviously we know that Summerall went to Florida from Tulane and Duke lost Darren Minsa to Miami. ⁓ Tulane promoted their defensive coordinator as the head coach, so questions on me is you know, why didn't Sumerall take him with him? But it is what it is. I don't have official play on this game. If I leaned on this game, I'd be with you. I feel like they're both evenly matched teams. So if I'm getting nine and a half against teams that I think are pretty even, that's what I would lean to. But I have no idea. So I'm staying away from it. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Y'all the y'all get y'all are sitting at nine and a half right now. Greg: Not an unwise ⁓ Brian: Yep. You can get nine and a half. Greg: Chad, does ⁓ does that nine and a half interest you or you think you go lay it with the the blue doubles? CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: ⁓ I'm gonna pass, but if it was a lane, I would take plus nine and a half ⁓ Telane. I'll give you what my projections are since it's a it's not really official play for me. I don't wanna like get into all the crazy shit. ⁓ I got this game Duke twenty four to lane twenty, Duke twenty seven, Telane twenty four. ⁓ my model says Duke wins moneyline sixty four percent of the time. ⁓ Tulane covers seven and a half, which is what I ran the model on a couple days ago fifty percent of the time. So if you're gonna give me a few extra points, it shows me final score projected. Remember, when I run my sims on a game, I run the game three different times, but I run it five thousand simulations each time. It's got Duke twenty seven, Tulane twenty four. So now I might Be swayed to throw a sprinkle or something on that. Brian: Mm-hmm. Greg: All right, well, I don't want you sprinkling anywhere, so I'm gonna move on to the next game. We're gonna go to the what is ⁓ unfortunately not the game of the weekend. We're gonna go to the Tennessee State coming into Athens, angry after a loss last weekend. This is gonna be a hungry Tennessee state team trying to prove to my Bulldogs what the who gives a shit. The line's like fifty, I think forty-six and a half, forty-six last I saw. Totals fifty-six and a half. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Mm-hmm. Greg: If you bet on anything, take the Georgia team total and just hope that that we they can't stop us from scoring even after the second or third string gets in there. I don't like playing my own teams. Brian and I kind of have a thing, unless it's a game, you know, closer to something where I think just winning the game is what what I'm looking at. I can't tell you who's gonna cover 45, 46 points on much of anything. Just me speaking as a gambler. I will always take 46 before laying 46. So if you were forcing me to play this, I'd take the points and I'd probably take the under because it's going to be hot. We're going to be trying to get out of there. And if it's 39 to 2 at the start of the fourth quarter, I see a running clock and not much else happening. So I don't expect this to be a shootout. I don't expect the dogs to try to show much. I certainly wouldn't hang 46, but I can. unequivocally see us going out there and absolutely just dropping the hammer to the point where it almost looks like we couldn't stop scoring even if we wanted to. So I'll kick it to you, Chad. I know how much you love my Bulldogs. What do you expect us to show on Saturday? CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Let me actually defer. I'm looking on three different screens here. Let's go to Brian, then I'll come back if you don't mind. Greg: Ten four. Brown, what you got for ⁓ Tennessee State rolling into Athens? Brian: All right, like I gave in the pre game in the ⁓ preseason thing, Georgia's got sixteen players that's returning on defense with at least a hundred and fifty snaps. Tennessee state lost head coach Eddie George, NFL Legend two, Bowling Green, so he's not there anymore. Took some players. I don't expect this game, obviously, to be competitive at all. One thing I throw out there, I don't know if you knew y'all know, Kirby has never scored fifty points in a week one game. He's normally typically runs the clock. He don't want to put his best packages on tape, obviously, especially for a game like this. So for me, official play on this, I'll take the under fifty six and a half. I just don't see Kirby having the appetite to score sixty points on this team. Greg: I mean, Brian, I'm I'm with you, dude. I I I can't see anything other than like forty two to three, forty-two to six. ⁓ I ⁓ you may be forty-five to six and you get to fifty-one, maybe. I I I just don't see I I don't unless there's just some absolute flukes blown assignments on defense, they're not gonna score more than ten for sure. And I'm with you. I don't think Kirby has any desire to try to put fifty on a board in a meaningless game when it's a hundred degrees outside. It's just not who we are. So Brian: Mm. Mm-hmm. Greg: All right, Chad, we'll circle back to you and you can tell us how bad my bulldogs are gonna look. I'm I'm ready. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: I'm taking Tennessee plus 47 and a half. That's when I booked it. If it's gone up, it's gone up. ⁓ what it is what it is. ⁓ Georgia's gonna win. We guys, we know that. ⁓ superior roster, ⁓ 47 points is enormous. Tennessee state's quarterback situation has given enough ⁓ athletic athleticism to believe that we can have some kind of offense. Georgia's incentive isn't necessarily to keep scoring touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Once this gets into thirty-five to seven territory, which or forty-two to ten territory, ⁓ the game's gonna change. I got projected total forty two to thirteen ⁓ podcast sign. Georgia wins. I'm not fighting that. I'm fighting the number. Forty seven and a half, I can buy it up again or maybe even tease it up. ⁓ Forty seven and a half is asking Georgia to beat Tennessee State by seven touchdowns. That's a lot of football. And if I'm going off what you just said, Greg, by like, it's over a hundred degrees, it's hot as shit. Not a lot of scores. Let's get the fuck out of here. I'm gonna take the points. Give ⁓ to me. Greg: I I would not be surprised to see a running clock in the fourth quarter, maybe even the whole second half. I will say it, and and it's not something that will be posted. This will be one of the way would probably follow Brian's lead and look for a team total. If I can get up Saturday morning and find an eat East Tennessee State team total over six and a half or right at seven, I'll probably take that, just assume at some point along the way there'll be a fourth quarter, you know, against the absolute walk-on scrubs, there'll be a late touchdown because they'll be still trying to score. ⁓ or they might can bang home a couple field goals. I I could see that. ⁓ and you mentioned that team to I think all of our models probably have them getting at least a touchdown or more ⁓ in the in garbage time. So if I can get that team total at seven or less for East Tennessee State, I probably will throw something on that. ⁓ and again, I will readily admit right here in front of everybody that is partially an emotional hedge back. That keeps me from screaming at the TV when we give up that fourth quarter touchdown that means absolutely nothing. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: I agree with you and that and that's an official play for me. Greg: All right, now the game that Chadwick loves. Let's talk about Chad's tide. Saturday at noon, Bryant Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. We got the Alabama Crimson Tide laying about four touchdowns with a total right around 53 and a half. Last time I saw ⁓ new quarterback, new starter. East Carolinas rebuilding like they are every year. I'm not sure how it's rebuilding when you have to do it all the time. ⁓ but I don't think I could take a side on this one. That's a big spread and just a lot of unknowns. But my theory is because of that young quarterback and because whether he wants to admit it or not, Kalen DeBore is feeling a little warmth in that chair he sits in in that office. I'm gonna think they're gonna do everything they can to get Keelan Russell some some exposure, some experience, some comfort. I think they're gonna try to score as much as they can. I'm gonna play the over fifty-two and a half in this game. Chad, we'll save you for last since this is your team. Brian, what you got on Alabama ECU? Brian: I'll give a couple of little quick things and then turn it over to Chad. He I mean, ⁓ he's a Bama fan. Keelan Russell debut, I think he's a superstar. I think he works perfect in Kellen De Boer and what Ryan Grubb wanna do. The player I'm looking at is ⁓ the running back Daniel Hill. I think he's a physical running back. He was on the Bruce Fellman Freaks list with a 800 pound squat, 480 five five pound bench press. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Yeah. Brian: He's six one, two hundred and thirty pounds. Last year the knock on him was he liked to dance a little bit. They said he's fixed that problem. He's a north and south runner now. There's gonna be some people making some business decisions in that secondary when they go to trying to tackle him. ⁓ my and then you're in Bryant Denny Stadium, like you said, this is gonna be a big problem for ECU, a team that has twenty one new starters, eleven of them on defense. My official play in this game is going to be to bet Alabama minus six and a half for the first quarter. De Boer teams have scored over seven in each of their last four seasons in the first quarter and haven't allowed a single point in those four seasons in the first quarter. So I feel like minus six and a half with Bama in the first quarter is a lot. Greg: Great call. All right, CL, what you got? CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: I'm gonna give you the analysis, but I passed on this game. I like East Carolina plus 29. ⁓ Mitch Griffiths. ECU has officially turned to ⁓ Mitch Griffith, a ⁓ seventh year senior for the ⁓ Alabama Opener. ⁓ 2,314 passing yards. When I read that, I was like, ⁓ shit. 20 plus 29 sounds pretty good. 17 passing TDs. That sounds good. Eight interceptions, not great. ⁓ he does have a sixty one point two percent completion ⁓ ratio. I like that. ⁓ so some things led me to what's that? Brian: Ran out of whisk. I ran out of whiskey, sorry. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Yeah, pour another one. 'Cause I got some more coming. ⁓ but there's an important distinction here. His twenty twenty five season was at Texas Tech, where he played only seven games and went twenty-six for thirty-six. Three hundred and fifty-seven yards, two TDs, but seventy-two percent completion ratio. So, ⁓ let me skip all the BS that people don't want to hear and get down to what I really think. Greg: Too late. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: I think it's thirty-one to seven Alabama. And my other sim said thirty-eight to seven Alabama. final score. Final score on the third sim is thirty-eight Alabama ECU thirteen. Alabama's gonna win the game, guys, regardless, doesn't matter. I'm still not gonna bet this game. Greg: So take the under CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: As much as I want to just to make it exciting for me. ⁓ I gotta take my ⁓ my feelings out of it and just stick to the betting side of it. But I'm not laying four touchdowns or the first year starting quarterback. ECU doesn't have a win ⁓ this game. They have to survive it. It's a matter of can they just get out of here? Gimme if I had if you were like, Hey, gun to my head, I would probably take ECU plus a twenty nine. That would be a lien against my Greg: I'm well I well, I I got no shame in it and and take no pride in having to come up with something creative myself. I'm I'm gonna tell you right now, I'll be following Brian's first quarter play. I like the that that sounds like some seriously good logic. I like the way that looks. I and again, barring some fluky thing early, I just don't see any way ECU scores early and I don't see how they keep Alabama out of the end zone for a full quarter, so All right, well that's ⁓ that's the list of games that we kind of decided amongst ourselves that that we wanted to talk about and really go through as a rundown. ⁓ but now we get into having some real fun and maybe a little bit of a little bit of danger. I'm gonna give you guys the floor, fellow. Whatever bets you've got this weekend that are on the board that you love, but we didn't get to in the rundown. Now, I don't want a five-minute speech. I don't want Chad reading high school stats. Just give me the name, give me the number, give me the bet, and tell me why you like it. And if you can't defend it easily and quickly, I don't think you like it that much. So I'm I'm gonna start it off with Chad since I pick on you the most. Chad, is there any other action out there that you ⁓ you want to tell the folks that you're getting down on that we didn't ⁓ didn't address in the rundown? CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: ⁓ nope. Only until we get into the ⁓ parlay and teaser. Greg: All right. Brian, do you have any other flat, straight bets out there that we didn't address yet? Brian: Yeah, I think that ⁓ that me and Chad might have a s a play in this game. It's the UTEP at Oklahoma game. ⁓ you got an elite defense in Oklahoma. UTEP threw twenty interceptions last year with this game. Brent Venable team's average score in a first half game against a team like this is thirty two to two and a half. I think that the U UTEP might be one of the worst teams in the country. So in this ballgame, I'm gonna take Oklahoma's team total over twenty five and a half for the first half. After the first half, I think he's gonna get his starters out. He's got Michigan next week. He's got Georgia in three weeks. He's gonna do all the damage in the first quarter and then get his starters out. So I'd like that twenty five and a half ⁓ team total. Actually it's twenty actually it's twenty four and a half now. Greg: I'm with you at Brian: I'll take that even better. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Yeah, drop. Greg: I was kinda looking at that one as p as possibly an underplay on that one 'cause I'm kinda like you, I think Oklahoma gets up early and then just tries to get out of there and I don't know that Utah or UTEP scores. I don't know that UTEP doesn't you walk out of with a goose egg. Brian: I I was seriously looking at the UTEP under a half a point for the first half also. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: No, don't get don't don't put a dip don't put a point up. Greg: Yeah. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: They'll put they'll put a they'll put a touchdown up at least. Greg: Bri, is there any other straight action you got? Brian: ⁓ I guess I gotta lean on a on a game, but I don't let's see. Yeah, I got one more official play and then I got a lean on the game, so Greg: All right, give us that official play. Brian: Official play takes us to a ⁓ game that I know everyone is excited about. It's the Northern Illinois Huskies against the Iowa Cyclones. I mean not Cyclones, the Hawkeyes. NIU might be worse than UTEP. They got no depth. They're terrible on offense last year. They ranked a hundred they're ranked right now 131 out of 138 teams. They CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Yeah. Brian: They promoted their defensive coordinator because they had to, because their head coach took a job with the Seattle Seahawks as their running backs coach in February. So if he's bailing in February to go take a running backs coach job, it makes you feel about that team. I'm gonna take the Northern Illinois University team total under three and a half for the first half. If they cross the fifty yard line, it'd be a miracle. They might kick a field goal out of some freaky thing, but there's no way they get over three and a half points in the first half against Iowa's starting defense when a Kurt Ferrens defense. So I'm gonna take that. Greg: I I know Iowa has ⁓ has tweaked some things to try to ⁓ try to catch up with what is what is modern football. But just as a point of aside, when I when I saw the line pop out, my first thought was go, I can't even imagine like if you've watched college football for the last fifteen or twenty years and you're comfortable with Iowa laying 30 something points, you ain't been watching the same football I have. I know they've changed a little bit. I know it's not the same Iowa from three or four years ago, but I could see too many like nine to six Iowa rock fights. To ever think about laying 30 something. I'm with you on the defensive side of things though. Keep that under and and Northern Illinois is terrible. ⁓ and that's another one. There's a they could likely leave the stadium with exactly the same amount of points that they show up with. All right, that that does it for the straight plays, I believe. Now it's ⁓ now it's time to have a little bit of fun and ⁓ hope that the alcohol has kicked in for my two co hosts here. Time for the whiskey and winners three team seven point teaser. Chad, you get to go first on the teaser. Give us a leg with the seven points and then Brian, you give me your leg. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: ⁓ for the teaser. We've already talked about this game. ⁓ you actually corrected me. I think you sent me a text very early this morning. ⁓ I said Georg give me Georgia Tech plus fourteen. ⁓ gimme Georgia Tech even. I like Georgia Tech to win the game outright regardless. ⁓ that's probably my biggest play on the board so far. Greg: Yeah, that'd be nice. All right, Brian, what's your seventh point? Wh where you going? Brian: My seven point I think that this team's probably gonna win the game outright also. So if you can give me eight and a half, I'm gonna take it at home. Give me cow. Greg: All right. And then I I'm going with kind of following Chad's logic. I was looking for a team around that touchdown number that I could bet down and just go for the W. I I'm gonna go with the Auburn Tigers. Baylor and Auburn. I Auburn's at minus seven and a half. If I can tease that down and just take Auburn minus a half. I think Byron Brown, I I think ⁓ give me the SEC team, give me the SEC team to come out of that stadium with the W. ⁓ so Chad and I kinda had the same theory with the the seven point teaser that I think we do with the money line parlay, but Ted, you got to go first on the teaser, so I'll let Brian go first on the parlay. Brian, give me ⁓ give me your leg. And now let me let me say this before we get started. I do need to address this as a very serious matter. Now, hey, I know the old gambling adage that parlays are for suckers, and that's not entirely wrong. They are, but sometimes it's fun to be a sucker, and some of us have found a way to make money at being a sucker. So I, for one, take a lot of pride in money line parlays. I thought I was going to take a lot of pride in assembling this group of heroes to put together one every week and just assured that we come out on top. But lo and behold, we went 0 3 and took the golden sombrero last week. Three picks, no points. We just looked for a winner, and not a single one of us could find one. So time for some redemption. Brian, give me a moneyline team that's going to win a football game this weekend. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Your dumbass phone. Brian: I'm gonna go into the James Madison Liberty game. Liberty last year was one and five in road games. They gave up three hundred and eighteen points in those games. This is a road game for them, so give me James Madison as my moneyline part. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Liberty. ⁓ Greg: ⁓ I like it. I looked at that one as well. Chad, what's your money line piece? CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: ⁓ that one I have moneyline. Sorry, looking in four different places. Give me just a minute. Wyoming moneyline. I'm not going into an analysis. Greg: Beautiful. I I wouldn't listen if you did. ⁓ well and then at at the risk of overexposure, my money line plays Georgia Tech. So kind of along the same lines as Chad using them in his teaser. I just don't see any way Tech loses that game to Colorado at home. ⁓ so yeah, I'm I'm going tech as my three person moneyline parlay. All right, Brian, you got your notes in front of us. You think you can give us a quick recap of the official plays, the teaser and then the parlay? Brian: Try. Alright, I got Cad ⁓ Chad Georgia Tech minus six and a half. I got Miami Stanford under 47 and a half, Tennessee State plus 47.5, Clemson plus 10, FSU money line. Then with Greg's picks, I got Georgia Tech minus six and a half, Auburn minus six and a half, Baylor Auburn under fifty-nine and a half, LSU minus ten. Greg: That's all we asked for. Brian: LSU Clemson under fifty one and a half. Wisconsin plus twenty and a half. Ole Miss minus six and a half. Florida State plus three and a half. Tulane plus nine and a half. ECU Alabama over fifty-two and a half. My plays are Colorado, Georgia Tech under fifty one and a half, Auburn minus six and a half. Wisconsin team total under fourteen and a half. SMU team total over six and a half for the first quarter. Tennessee State UGA under fifty-six and a half. Alabama minus six and a half for the first quarter. Oklahoma team total over 24 and a half for the first half. Clemson LSU under 51 and a half. And Northern Illinois team total under three and a half for the first half. Combined Parlay is W Wyoman, Georgia Tech, and James Madison. And the teaser is Georgia Tech at a pick. Auburn at minus point five and California at plus eight point five. Greg: Beautiful. All right, Chad, you got anything you wanna share with the listeners before I close us out? CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Yeah, with my ⁓ Wyoming moneyline parlay not taking the three, three and a half points. It's a rivalry game, guys. I think it's gonna be a low total game. I ran it three times. ⁓ forty six point five means every position matters. So That's where I'm at. I'm just taking a while. I mean, I think I mean if you're in a rivalry game, usually home field advantage is three points. We all know that. Current market analysis has the Rams around minus three to minus three and a half. If you're at home, why in a rivalry game, really why are you only getting minus three? It should be minus five or six. Based off the stats I've seen, I'm not gonna go into the five minute analysis, but Wyoming money line, I think it's there. Greg: I be nobles, you got anything you want to share with the folks before I close us out? Brian: No, I mean my favorite play is gonna be the Alabama minus six and a half of the first quarter. I don't I d I Greg: I like that one too, brother. I think I think that's a strong look. All right, guys. Well, that'll do it for this episode of Whiskey and Winners. The good news is football is back officially. We've got a full slate. The numbers are posted, the opinions are flying. And be real, by Saturday at dinner, we're all going to be looking at a box score going, Well, I didn't see that coming. But hey, remember, we're not promising winners. We're promising that we're going to make you feel better about your poor decisions. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Good play. Yep, it's a good play. Yes. That's right. Greg: And if you lose a bet this weekend, I don't want to hear about it. Don't text me. If you win a bet, well obviously I was right there with you the whole time. Enjoy week one, drink responsibly, bet responsibly, and remember, it's only gambling if you don't have a spreadsheet. Spreadsheets legitimize everything. We'll see you next time on Whiskey and Winners. Good night. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: All right guys, good luck. Brian: Well