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Examining Market Downturns: Microsoft, Nvidia, and TSM's Stock Potential · Earn Your Leisure

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  Speaker 3: All right, So the question is that everybody wants to
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: know is too far? How far will the stock market fall?
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: So they can know when to get in. And then
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: also a lot of companies are down right and Video
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: is down over twenty five percent Microsoft, Microsoft is down,
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: Apple is down to TSM is down over twenty percent.
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: Out of all of those like major blue chip companies,
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: what's the what's the most attractive right now in this
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: down market that we're in.
• 2:24
  Speaker 4: I will go Microsoft first, TIA some second, and Video third. Really,
• 2:31
  Speaker 4: I'm here to give truth if y'all have got good
• 2:36
  Speaker 4: almostly DC. I don't care. Y'all should have been looking.
• 2:38
  Speaker 4: I told you when it was gonna fall. Yeah, And
• 2:41
  Speaker 4: notice when everybody start copying on CNBC and some of
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: you Internet gurus, everyone's like it's easy analysis. I'm like,
• 2:47
  Speaker 4: why didn't you say it two months ago? Like if
• 2:49
  Speaker 4: a company goes up eleven x over a two or
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: three year period, how many deviations does it have to
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: revert to the mean for the price to level up?
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: So I think the MV be a move right now,
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: is overvalued. I think TSM may be underpriced.
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 3:06
  Speaker 5: Who's going to win in the end? Microsoft because they
• 3:09
  Speaker 5: have relationships on both sides. They're buying from both cartels,
• 3:11
  Speaker 5: so they'll be fine. But I will put TSMS second.
• 3:14
  Speaker 5: For everybody in stock club, you're not paying our price
• 3:16
  Speaker 5: is our price? If I made you money, please put
• 3:18
  Speaker 5: yes in chat. But normally we're moved. I'm not looking
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: for the obvious investment. I'm looking for a contrarian investment.
• 3:27
  Speaker 5: And unless China overtakes, I don't think it happened this year.
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: Maybe next please please I hope not, because if not,
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: we really we Why two K didn't happen. But why
• 3:38
  Speaker 4: two twenty five four if they get if.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: They get ts, yeah, let's overweight twenty thirty or something
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: like that. Maybe hopefully never, but at least by that
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: time when we have boundaries here on on all soil.
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  Speaker 3: So Microsoft is the most attractive thing that you see
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: right now, hands down.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to disagree with you, okay, and I'm
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: going to put in videos still at number one. Well
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: a couple of reasons, and Microsoft is part of the reason.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: If we're talking about Capex and even with Microsoft reported
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: that was an issue and Amazon reported That's when.
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: I was like, all right, this is glaring, this is
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: clear and meta as well.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: But Microsoft, Amazon specifically, which we noticed my is my
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: favorite company. When I was looking at the spendshers and
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: I'm like, well they increased spending by forty three percent,
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: Like wow, well where did it go?
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: Yep AI Innovation who they spending it with.
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: Of course you got to spend it with half, right,
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: So you.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: Spend it with them, that's Amazon. Well, then you go
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: into Microsoft and the same thing. Cap X were obviously
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: already know their relationship with open Ai, which is getting
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: you got to keep eye on that relationship. Because it's
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: it feels like something tricky is about to happen. But again,
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: AI innovation, who are they spending it with? And video matter?
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: Sam Allman. If you think you're gonna run off of
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: the plug of Microsoft, it feels yea, I'll put you
• 4:59
  Speaker 4: on a plane with both. First.
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: Now you look like you're trying to run off with
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: the plane.
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: You can try. You're going to be one eight some rumblings.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Right, So now you've got Amazon, you got Microsoft, and
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: now Meta again when you they already told you their
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: commitment to it, to the spending, and they've said, look,
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: we're in the beginning stages of this. We're not slowing
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: down for a second, right, And so you got these
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: three major huge mega caap you're talking about trillion dollar
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: evaluations or market caps if all of them are spending
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: with this person, that person still remains dominant to me.
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  Speaker 1: The fact that it's come down under ninety and we
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: kind of hinted it last week when we were like,
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: what what's the number? We hinted at it. Now that
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: it's down at I think it hit ninety four today.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: I was on a plane pissed somebody, right, Oh my gosh,
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: I like it at this number, and so I put
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: them at number one. I have TSM at three, and
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: I'm I'm I'm going to move.
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: Apple back in there.
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  Speaker 1: Even with the sell off from the oral of Omaha,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: I still like Apple.
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: We got to talk about it.
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: The service business.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: When I looked at the earnings, I said, oh, my gosh,
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: you're talking about eighty three billion. I mean, how many
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: companies even have that evaluation, which is ridiculous. But the
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: technology inside of the New sixteam, from what everybody's saying,
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: and I know this is still in the beta phase,
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: is that this isn't one of those situations where oh,
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: I'll wait to get the next phone. If you want
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: to have the capabilities, you have to get this phone. Yeah,
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: So I throwing them in there, and then I'll put TSM.
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: Speaking of capabilities, so you're still having video b A
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: number one. Even though they put black Ball.
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: On hold, they didn't put it on hold.
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: So what the kids saying, So this is good.
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: I'm glad you said that.
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: So the.
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: Rumblings are that it is being delayed.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: They're not going to be shipped out at the same
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: capacity that they said they were going to. They're still
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: going to be shipped out at the and this year
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: it won't be at the same level of capacity, and
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: it has to do with TSM.
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: Really, TSM does it.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: They're trying to keep up with the demand and have
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: the actual technology that they need to create those ships
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: for blackwell, yeah, it's super challenging, and so they're trying
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: to keep up with the demand, which now again supply
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: chain situation. Now that's when put out class Yeah, yeah, yeah,
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: it's it's tricky because the slogan was new product every year,
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: and the first year that you announced it, we're having
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: a delay on.
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: The first product. So that is a little shaky.
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  Speaker 3: So okay. For n Video, they are facing an anti
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: trust lawsuit. Florida based hedge fund with seventy billion dollars
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: in assets, sent a letter to their clients recently saying
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: mega megacap technology stocks were in a bubble and it
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: was very skeptical that big tech companies would keep buying
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: chip makers graphics processing units GPUs in such high value.
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: Hedge Fund warns that chip stocks may be in a bubble,
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: which have enjoyed a huge rally from driven investors fevering
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: over genitive AI. So long story short, they were they
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: were they're bullish on their bearish on in video they
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: said that gob hype bubble. The demand is going to
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: slow down, and like I said, they have they have
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: a pending lawsuit from the government anti trust.
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: Sounds good, you gotta go kiss the listen. You already
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: sold two million bricks. You y'all lost some black Well,
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: like ho there back in the day, It's okay, it's okay.
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: The truth. Is there going to be some slow down
• 8:39
  Speaker 4: as the person that made this a catalyst stock? Yeah?
• 8:46
  Speaker 4: Is it going to fall to the floor? No, no, absolutely,
• 8:49
  Speaker 4: But is there going to be as like it's all okay.
• 8:52
  Speaker 4: I'll ask you guys, have you ever seen a company
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: have seven x growth every year over year for a
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: five or six year period. We're I take the stock
• 9:02
  Speaker 4: and product out of it, we're entering a mathematical anomaly.
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: Well, remember I don't know if remember, but remember when
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: I I was talking about Ripple, and then I also
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: was saying that, like, you know, when Ripple got to
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: the point where it's market cap made the CEO like
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: the fifth richest person in the world, and it really
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: just and then I was saying, like, you know, I
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: just didn't think that in video was a more like
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: when they had when they have market caps and they're
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: bigger than every company in the world. Damn there, Google, Amazon.
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: I just don't think that in video is a is
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: a company that is more valuable than a lot of
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: these companies that they have higher valuations than it just
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: at a certain point time such.
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: Which one, Yeah, who would you put there?
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: Well, and then we have a conversation about the AI
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: bubble being true and over.
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: I just don't think that in video is a more
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: important company like in the grand scheme of life right
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: now and what Google has built, what Amazon has built.
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: At one point they was more valuable than Apple, Like
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: I mean, you know, it's it's it's difficult, Like you
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: know what I mean. It's like somebody that just got
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: drafted and they are ready in the goat conversation after
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: two years, I'm saying, Lebron, that's twenty years. So it's like,
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: all right, so if you so now you say Anthony
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: Edwards is better than Michael Joyan, right, if you want to.
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: Ti of them first two three years, maybe if he
• 10:29
  Speaker 4: came out to Game one. Okay, this is the true
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: and video is powering all the major tech companies at
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: some point though, if Blackwell does not coming out of
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: the speed that it needs to, somebody could take that lead.
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: That lead could go to TSM. We're in a battle
• 10:44
  Speaker 4: off than that, Like that was aie that co pilot
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: runs off of. Everyone reacts the ship.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: It's still contingent though, right, Like so it's still contingent
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: on TSM producing. So they actually they need each other.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: They don't until and Video decides that.
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: But that, I mean, it's an inevitable and video cannot
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: Number three rule and branding. You cannot be attached to
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: a supplier for a long period of time if you
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: want to be the pre eminent leader in the world.
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: Apple went through this. But like you've got to detach
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: and make your own stuff on ground especially so now
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: you the point now, now, yeah, that was the point
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: I was going to.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: It's like, yes, they will detach, right, and then if
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: they detach, which is going to take ten years, right,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: if you even get to the technologies, what happens to
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: the revenue If you're not spending with the company that
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: is building your chips, the revenue goes up. The valuation
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: is going to go higher. If everybody That's why I said,
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: if it's a slow down, then go read Meta's earnings report. Correct,
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: Go read Microsofts, Go read Amazons, go read Apples. Where
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: is their capecks going? If it's a slowdown, then those
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: companies wouldn't be spending at that levels that they are.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: And each of those CEOs said that we're not slowing
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: down anytime soon.
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: Yep, also too. Y'all know, historically I've hated RSI, but
• 12:04
  Speaker 4: if we look at the RSI on the Monkey, my
• 12:08
  Speaker 4: real numbers is ninety five and five. It is the
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: last like big ninety fives.
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: Which one are you looking at?
• 12:12
  Speaker 4: What company? Nvidia currently? They're currently at sixty nine right now,
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: So if we're going off mathematical averages, they should pull
• 12:21
  Speaker 4: back for sixty two to ninety four days as a result.
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: Great bond opportunity if it gets there. But we have
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: been over sold, and I do agree with evaluation metric,
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: but we have to have a bigger conversation in corporate America.
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: Enough companies are not producing shit that really matters. That's
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: my issue. So if they are the supplier the cartel
• 12:44
  Speaker 4: to all the tech monopolies and only seven companies can
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: really buy from them, what about the military companies that
• 12:50
  Speaker 4: are falling apart would have low profit margin three percent
• 12:54
  Speaker 4: profit marks. You can't run a company off three percent
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: profit margins.
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: Do you ask that question?
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: No, great rate cuts.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: So we spoke about data dump and the answer to
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: that question is the number two supply. So even during
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: this pullback, if you watch AMD over the past week
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: two weeks, it's been kind of steady. There's actually been
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: up maybe two or three percent because of some of
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: that issue. But I agree with you, right, and we
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: kind of went over this a few weeks ago. But
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: we have to get to the point where they're going
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: to have to start seeing the byproduct of the spend. Right,
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: has it increased efficiency? Probably has it increased revenue? We
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: don't know.
• 13:33
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