Latest / SILVER / GOLD / $UFD Meme Coin Investing & Global Economics / Silver’s BIGGEST LIE: 🚀 The Truth About US Retail Demand - (Gold Price News Update)
Transcript
- 0:02Silver is dead. That's what some people are
- 0:06saying. Well, in this video, I'm going
- 0:08to prove to you that that's absolutely not the case and that
- 0:12there are some big misconceptions, big
- 0:14misunderstandings in the general public, especially the United
- 0:18States, even within the silver stacking community about what
- 0:22really should be and is driving the silver price right now.
- 0:27We're also going to talk about $49,000 gold and I'll show you
- 0:30the real hard numbers that show that it can happen.
- 0:33And we're going to talk about the biggest driver, incredible
- 0:37data coming out showing what will push the silver and gold
- 0:41price, in my opinion, much higher in the coming year and
- 0:46decade. We got a lot of good things to
- 0:48look forward to. But let's start by talking about
- 0:51what I think is kind of a not maybe a purposeful lie, but this
- 0:54idea that silver is dead right. People are putting out YouTube
- 0:59videos saying silvers done silvers over, you know, the the
- 1:02sentiment right now is not exactly very positive.
- 1:06And silver it should be where it's $75 silver.
- 1:09Come on guys, come on, Basement dwellers, one year ago today,
- 1:14had I told you we would be sitting at $75 silver, we would
- 1:18be having the biggest party ever, renting private jets and
- 1:22etcetera. But nonetheless, there's this
- 1:25message being put out there and some of it comes from videos
- 1:28talking to people that work at coin shops.
- 1:31I'm going to dive in and tell you a couple misconceptions that
- 1:34are going on right now #1 there's a lot of coin shop drama
- 1:39and mixed signals there there. But we're also hearing from of
- 1:43these coin shops that the actual, while the set number of
- 1:46sellers outnumber the number of buyers, the actual amount of
- 1:51silver in dollar terms that the buyers are buying is bigger than
- 1:56the sellers. Now let's go out.
- 1:57I have a graphic I put together for you that's going to show us
- 2:01retail demand. That's what we're going to focus
- 2:03on, retail silver demand. And you might be shocked by what
- 2:07I'm about to show you and tell you, but this, my friends, is
- 2:11the fact I had this put together by Google AI.
- 2:15It says exploring US retail silver demand.
- 2:19And they're right at the very top, I think is one of the big
- 2:22misconceptions. Global market driver, the United
- 2:27States physical investment bars and coins historically is a
- 2:31major force in global silver demand.
- 2:34I don't agree with that. And I've got another chart that
- 2:36I've made I drew by hand. We're going to look at in the
- 2:38second that I think will show this very clearly. 2021 one, OK,
- 2:43this is crazy. Was a historical peak when 10 to
- 2:4712% of global total demand for silver came from the United
- 2:53States. Massive investment highs during
- 2:55this period. That was 2021.
- 2:59What about 2025? OK, significant drop.
- 3:03US retail demand drops to 1.4%. Wait a minute.
- 3:08And apparently they got these numbers from the silver survey,
- 3:1215.7 million oz volatility led to a dramatic reduction.
- 3:18Think about that guys. 2025, when there was supposedly a
- 3:22massive drop in retail silver demand in the United States, was
- 3:27also one of the best years on history ever for silver.
- 3:32OK. So make a mental note of that.
- 3:35Now they're saying there's a print a projected surge in 2026,
- 3:40sharp recovery expected investors return price reval and
- 3:44critical mineral designation. If if we go up 60% from 1.4%,
- 3:50you're still talking at most what, like like 2.2%?
- 3:56OK, now that comes from source data concepts based on the World
- 4:01Silver Survey. Now what I want to show you
- 4:05next, Here's the big, I think where we all get messed up,
- 4:09right? All of us retail silver
- 4:11investors in the United States, I think we give ourselves too
- 4:15much credit. I'm not putting you down or me
- 4:17down, but we live in this little bubble where we think that
- 4:20retail demand for silver is like a major, major driver.
- 4:24I'm sorry, I don't think it is. Is it one of the drivers?
- 4:28Can it have an impact? Yes, no doubt about it.
- 4:31But is it the primary driver? No.
- 4:33OK, let me show you I do this. I drew this one up for us that I
- 4:37think really drives the point home.
- 4:43OK. The pink box that I have on this
- 4:46chart is total silver demand. The green box at the top is if
- 4:52indeed it is 10 about now. We heard in 2025 it was 1.4%.
- 4:57But for this, I'm going to be very conservative.
- 4:59We're going to say 10%. That's what US retail demand is
- 5:04at about its peak. If even we were back at 10% and
- 5:08it were to drop by 20%, which is the little black area at the
- 5:12very top that I colored in. It's really nothing, right?
- 5:16Like we, we, we, we get, we hear these my fellow Youtubers, not
- 5:20all of them. And I'm not putting anybody
- 5:22down. Anybody who's out there making
- 5:24content about silver, thumbs up, right?
- 5:26And I could be wrong, but I think that we, we focus too much
- 5:30on what's going on like at the coin shops and coin shops are
- 5:34great. Again, I'm not poking at
- 5:36anybody, but it's such a small minor component of, of, of
- 5:41what's happening in the world of precious metals and silver in
- 5:46general, right? It's a tiny little segment.
- 5:49And actually the local coin shop segment, I didn't know this, but
- 5:53according and there's, it's hard to aggregate all the data on
- 5:56these things, but the local coin shops are only about a third now
- 6:00from what I'm reading of the total bullion demand in the
- 6:04United States. The other third is now being
- 6:07taken up by online bullion sales.
- 6:10And the final third, it said from other, other resources.
- 6:14The other thing to remember is that a lot of people when
- 6:18they're making big buys, and that came up in my research as
- 6:21well, when they're making major purchases of silver, they're
- 6:25more likely to be doing that now online because there's better
- 6:29prices, better selection and very reputable companies have
- 6:33been that have been out there doing it for a long, long time.
- 6:36OK. And again, I think the the big
- 6:39misconception that a lot of us have is that we give way too
- 6:43much weight to what's going on, especially the United States.
- 6:46We can be a little egotistical that we think we're a lot more
- 6:51powerful than we are. According to that data we just
- 6:54saw, we're like 1.4% in 2025. That does seem low to me.
- 7:00But at the top we're maybe 10% of the total annual silver
- 7:05demand and that's at the very, very top.
- 7:08So, you know, and the other thing that this that that silver
- 7:11is dead because of what a couple of people at a couple coin shops
- 7:15are saying. I don't buy it.
- 7:16Look, silvers way bigger. OK, Go talk to people in China.
- 7:21Go talk to people in India, Right?
- 7:24They're importing record amounts of silver.
- 7:27OK, Ask them if silver's dead. Go to the Shanghai Gold
- 7:31Exchange, where, like last data I saw, they're willing to pay,
- 7:34what, 12 to 15% higher per oz for a physical ounce of silver?
- 7:40I'm not buying. We are in a new paradigm.
- 7:42We are in a new world when it comes to the silver price.
- 7:45Does the United States matter? Yes.
- 7:48Is it still the major driver? I don't think.
- 7:51I think we're giving ourselves just a little too much credit
- 7:54and that's OK, right? Because hey, if the United
- 7:57States think about it, if we do become this is this is critical
- 8:01to understand if we were to become again a major driver in
- 8:05the silver market, right? Like during the what that was
- 8:08probably the silver squeeze. That's what that was that 2021
- 8:12number that we looked at earlier during right after C-19, if we
- 8:16were to become a major driver again, Katie, bar the door.
- 8:21And you know what, now that I'm thinking about it, think about
- 8:23this even what happened in January where there was like a a
- 8:28little bit of a mania. We're not going to call it a
- 8:30squeeze. There was the silver mania.
- 8:32A lot of new people coming into the silver market, right?
- 8:35Not a flood, but a lot of new people coming into silver and
- 8:39gold for that matter as well. And look at what the price did,
- 8:42it went up to 120 an ounce. I don't know how much that had
- 8:46to do with these new people coming in.
- 8:48But at the other thing for us to remember is during that period,
- 8:51the online bullion dealers and even some of the coin shops were
- 8:56having a hard time stocking inventory.
- 9:00There were shipping delays, 5 weeks, six weeks.
- 9:02So I don't know guys, at the end of the day, I, I think that we
- 9:08need to remember very critically, right, that we are
- 9:11in a new world when it comes to silver and gold.
- 9:14I, us Americans, retail investors, we, I love you, we're
- 9:18important, right, that we know why we're here, but we aren't
- 9:22the driver that has driven us to where we are now.
- 9:25And while we could become more of a driver in the future, which
- 9:28is really great for the price, right, we don't, they don't
- 9:31really need us. And they kind of prove that.
- 9:35Prove that. OK, All right, let me make sure
- 9:38I hit all the pertinent points on that.
- 9:41But yeah, I think the other thing to remember, 2025 was a
- 9:45big down year according to the data that I saw for US retail
- 9:49silver demand. And the silver price still went
- 9:51up. All right, let's talk about
- 9:52$49,000 gold. Hey, before I do that, I do want
- 9:56to remind you if you do want to get your hands on some physical
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- 11:03you. Let's go look, get some fun
- 11:05data. How about $49,000 gold?
- 11:08OK, and here we are. North Star Band charts puts this
- 11:15out. Gold.
- 11:16Silver. Oh, shoot, hold on here.
- 11:33I hope you guys are all having a good night.
- 11:35And here we are. Let's get to the right chart.
- 11:39North Star bad charts, gold, silver, commodities, energy,
- 11:43oil. OK, I'm back.
- 11:45Yes, thank you, Susie. What we've seen so far is
- 11:48nothing compared to what this chart implies is likely to come,
- 11:53is likely to come in stage one. This chart compares the price of
- 11:57gold to the S&P 500. So if you figure right now we'll
- 12:01say what $4800 gold divided by the S&P 500 about 7000, we are
- 12:08over here right now right about .67 somewhere in that range, OK.
- 12:15Throughout history we go back here to the to the early 6th to
- 12:19the 60s and then into the 1970s. As you can see that ratio went
- 12:26way up. It actually went as high as 7
- 12:30around 1980 that the price of gold was seven times the S&P
- 12:36500. Then we had the long bad bear
- 12:40market, OK, all the way down here to the year 2000, right
- 12:46when the tech bubble hit, we were at an all time low.
- 12:49The gold price was like what, 290, two $180 per oz.
- 12:53Don't you wish we could go back and revisit those days?
- 12:59But then the price, then the ratio went back up with the gold
- 13:01price up through 2011, the rally that we had there.
- 13:05Now as we know here we are back again, OK, from 2011 with the
- 13:13gold price went down, down, down, OK, Now we started to go
- 13:17back up and we are right here, OK.
- 13:21Now he he draws this line which he calls the capital rotation
- 13:25event CRE up in the upper left corner.
- 13:28That's this line on the chart. Basically as we break out from
- 13:33this and continue with a commodity super cycle, they're
- 13:36predicting that it can it'll happen in in three phases just
- 13:40like it has in the past several times.
- 13:43And guys, if, OK, if if the S&P 500 were to stay at 7000 and we
- 13:50were to get back up here to this, this .7 on that ratio
- 13:56where the gold price is 7 times the S&P 500, that would be
- 14:01$49,000 gold. I don't hear anyone predicting
- 14:04that. But look, there's the math right
- 14:07there. Even if the S&P 500 stays at
- 14:107000 and we go to three to one, we're going to have $21,000
- 14:14gold. If we have $21,000 gold and a 50
- 14:18to 1 gold to silver ratio, we've got $400.00 silver.
- 14:22These numbers, I know, I understand they seem incredible,
- 14:27but they're based on recent history, OK, we're there.
- 14:32And, and look what happened back then in the 70s and 80s, We were
- 14:36not even, we, we were not in a situation fiscally and
- 14:40monetarily like we're in now. So to say that, oh, that can
- 14:44never happen again. Oh, that can never happen again.
- 14:46Yes, it can happen again. And I think there's a much
- 14:49better chance of that happening again than anyone realizes
- 14:52because we got the big major driver for the gold and silver
- 14:57price as we go through these next 10 years, years will be
- 15:01inflation. Inflation is like the Titanic
- 15:04sinking, OK. And all the other noise, all the
- 15:07other stuff going on are like people, you know, arguing over
- 15:11what they're going to eat for dinner in the restaurant at the
- 15:14Titanic, right? The major driving force will be
- 15:17inflation. And I've got a chart, I'm going
- 15:19to show a couple charts we're going to look at that will drive
- 15:22this home and eerily similar to where we are right now.
- 15:26Before we do that, thank you to Brixton Metals, the Canadian
- 15:29metals exploration company, for sponsoring Ron's basement.
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- 15:36And our friends at First Mining Gold, they have two multi
- 15:39million ounce development stage projects in Canada.
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- 15:46I'm not a financial advisor, do your own research, but those are
- 15:49both stocks that I owned long before they sponsored my
- 15:53channel. Let's go out and see if we've
- 15:55got any news about inflation. And here we go.
- 16:01This comes from Bloomberg. Inflation is back and we're
- 16:04already seeing 7% annualized 3 month, 3, three month average
- 16:10from December to February. Wow, inflation looms.
- 16:13This is, this is coming guys. And inflation will be
- 16:17undoubtedly, it's all we're going to hear about over the
- 16:20next number of years. And it's undoubtedly going to be
- 16:24the, the, the, the, when you boil everything down, it will be
- 16:27the driver of higher gold and silver prices.
- 16:30And it's looming as China's exporters boost prices on Iran's
- 16:34cost. Chinese exports or exporters are
- 16:37lifting prices on consumer goods due to rising oil linked input
- 16:41cost driven by the Iran war. More than a dozen categories of
- 16:46consumer goods saw sharp year on year increases in March, accord,
- 16:50according to the customs data. And it's just getting started,
- 16:56OK? As inflation comes in and it's
- 16:59going to come in hot and strong, it's going to be the major
- 17:04driver for gold and silver. Let's go to Kobasi because this
- 17:08is, I think, stunning while we look at this, he says.
- 17:11It's official. The world is now experiencing
- 17:14the biggest energy crisis in history, with 600 million
- 17:18barrels of oil lost at per day supply.
- 17:22US gas prices up 47% since December and inflation is
- 17:26nearing 4% in a similar path to the 1970s.
- 17:30What happens next? Let us explain.
- 17:32OK, here we go. This is the chart we want to
- 17:35look at in orange. I'm sorry, in orange, in blue,
- 17:39that's 1967 to 1983, a period of massive inflation in white is
- 17:482015 to present. So they overlaid each other.
- 17:52I mean, can you not see, I'll draw a red line, how they have
- 17:56followed each other, went back and then what happened here,
- 18:00right? What happened during that time
- 18:01period? It's what, 19, 79, that's around
- 18:08when we had a big energy crisis in the world and inflation, I
- 18:12mean, can you? I can see totally where we are
- 18:16now, the inflation numbers continuing to explode higher.
- 18:20And don't forget something critical for us to remember.
- 18:27Gold and silver had like, their best decade ever in the 1970s.
- 18:33We are doing an, unfortunately, almost an exact replay of what
- 18:38happened in the 1970s. Is it guaranteed?
- 18:42Is there some magic that might occurred?
- 18:44Maybe. But also consider this.
- 18:46When we look at what happened in the 1970s, that was when we
- 18:50first got off the gold standard. Yeah, 1971 when President Nixon
- 18:55temporarily took us off the gold standard that what the inflation
- 19:00that we had during that period. We had not abused the the the
- 19:06privilege of money printing at that point.
- 19:09It was all brand new and look at what happened during that
- 19:12period. Now Fast forward to today, which
- 19:15is very similar in a lot of ways and in a lot of ways even
- 19:18geopolitically even more extreme.
- 19:20But from a numbers, from a financial perspective, the shape
- 19:25that we are in right now is way worse, multiple times worse than
- 19:30what we were in in the 1970s where we had that 1015%
- 19:33inflation. Paul Volcker was able to raise
- 19:37interest rates to 20% back then. OK, They can't do that.
- 19:41Now. If they raised interest rates to
- 19:4420% on 40 trillion debt, that would be 8 trillion a year in
- 19:49interest expense once it all got refinanced.
- 19:52For simplicity sakes, the government only brings in four
- 19:56or five trillion per year period.
- 19:58It's the the point here is that we're in a very similar
- 20:02situation to the 1970s, but in a lot of ways we're actually in a
- 20:07more extreme, a more difficult situation.
- 20:10Inflation will drive everything. Including gold and silver, I
- 20:15think we could have even greater crazier returns in the next 5-5
- 20:20or so years in the gold and silver price then what we
- 20:23experienced in the 1970s. OK, because there's Paul Volcker
- 20:29can't come in or wash the new Volcker can't come in and raise
- 20:34interest rates to fight inflation, OK, They can't,
- 20:37right? What really matters, what really
- 20:40matters for gold and silver is the fact that unfortunately,
- 20:44right, the inflation rate will, will, will likely inevitably be
- 20:51higher than the interest rates. And that makes real interest
- 20:55rates negative. OK, They, they and, and look,
- 20:58and now we're going to go look at the Fed watch tool there.
- 21:00I thought they were going to raise rates, but according to
- 21:02the Fed watch tool, they're actually not, which is shocking
- 21:06because guys, the more, the more they keep interest rates, even
- 21:10if they just leave interest rates where they are.
- 21:13As inflation goes higher and higher and higher, it makes real
- 21:18interest rates more and more negative.
- 21:20When you when you, when you subtract inflation right from
- 21:25what you're earning, the interest rate on your money and
- 21:28interest rates stay the same, but inflation continues to go up
- 21:31more and more and more interest rates become more in real
- 21:35interest rates become more and more negative, which is a major
- 21:39driver. Let's go out and see.
- 21:40I was shocked last I looked. We're going to do this, this
- 21:44live right now. Go out to the Fed watch tool.
- 21:47This tracks with the big money the futures market is betting is
- 21:51going to happen with interest rates.
- 21:53We've got a meeting. Is there one this week?
- 21:56Yeah, the Fed's going to be out this week.
- 21:57That's going to be interesting. By Wednesday or Thursday, we'll
- 22:01hear from Jerome. But essentially right now,
- 22:04there's a 99% chance that rates are going to stay the same.
- 22:08But look, as we go out into the future, if we go to June, OK,
- 22:1394% chance that rates will stay the same and a 5% chance of a
- 22:18cut. Just recently that these numbers
- 22:21were showing that they thought they would be raising it if they
- 22:24cut interest rates while inflation is going up.
- 22:28That leg adds double turbo boost to the gold and silver price
- 22:32because real interest rates become more and more negative.
- 22:35Again, simple to understand and to calculate what the real
- 22:39interest rate is, you just deduct the inflation rate from
- 22:43what the interest rate is, right?
- 22:45And if that inflation rate is higher, baby, you got real, you
- 22:49got negative real interest rates.
- 22:50All right, let's go out here to September.
- 22:54Wow, this is crazy. They're saying there's a 25%
- 22:58chance that we could have lower interest rates.
- 23:01Let's go all the way out one year from now.
- 23:04And there's a 60% chance, 58%, you can see the biggest bar that
- 23:10rates will be the same. For those of you who don't know
- 23:13how to read this, here is the current rate from the Fed.
- 23:17This is April. These little tabs up at the top
- 23:20that I've been clicking, you can pick whatever fed meeting you
- 23:23want. And this down here, right is
- 23:26matches the current rate. And as you can see, there's a
- 23:2960%. This is going to be it's going
- 23:32to be unbelievable, OK? Even if they just don't cut
- 23:36rates over the next year and inflation continues to go up and
- 23:41up and up, which it will. I mean, it's when you look at
- 23:46what's going on in the oil markets, when you look at what's
- 23:48going on with money printing, it will it, will it, it will be an
- 23:53incredible time to be invested in gold and silver.
- 23:58And let's talk about the monetization of debt.
- 24:00I saw this right. There's a guy that I love out
- 24:04there in the gold and silver sector, Bald guy money.
- 24:08Put this one out today for the and this talks about money
- 24:11printing for those keeping track, the Fed balance sheet,
- 24:15which he calls the money printing tracker went up for the
- 24:18ninth week in a row. Meanwhile, we're told everything
- 24:21is great and demand for UFUS debt is strong.
- 24:24I call BS buy gold and silver. So the Fed's balance sheet
- 24:29continues right as we can see on this chart to go up and up.
- 24:34Now, he didn't say this, but I think he's saying this and I'll
- 24:37say this. That essentially starts to
- 24:40become monetization of debt. If the Fed is expanding their
- 24:44balance sheet by buying U.S. Treasuries, that is that's,
- 24:48that's monetization of debt. That's creating money out of
- 24:51thin air, OK, to buy the US debt.
- 24:55That's what Japan did it It's it's a it's I don't know, it's
- 25:00like supporting your kids too long or however you want to look
- 25:03at it. It's a shell game.
- 25:04It's money printing. It's dilution of the US dollar.
- 25:08And again, as the value of the dollar goes down, what does that
- 25:12mean? That means prices go up.
- 25:14That means inflation. And that's what's what's going
- 25:17to happen. Let's talk about some general
- 25:19doom in the general economy. OK, Things are wild.
- 25:25But when we hear this right, George Noble points out the S&P
- 25:29500 just hit an all time high, but consumer sentiment just hit
- 25:35an all time low. Remember, the United States
- 25:38economy is a consumer driven economy.
- 25:42That's how we've that's how we've been such a make America
- 25:46wonder, you know, the greatest economy in the world for the
- 25:49last 20 years because we're consumer economy, we bought
- 25:53stuff from everybody else in the world and we borrowed money from
- 25:56them to buy that stuff, right? But now consumer sentiment is
- 26:01near an all time low, while the stock market is near an all time
- 26:05high in nominal terms, right? Just in number terms as
- 26:13inflation, guys, as inflation continues to eat away at the
- 26:19value of the US dollar, even if the market stays where it is,
- 26:23right? That's nominal.
- 26:24That means just number in real terms, right?
- 26:27The value of what we can do, what we can buy with U.S.
- 26:30dollars will continue to go down.
- 26:33And I think that's no more demonstrated than by this.
- 26:37Here we go. U.S. housing market has not has
- 26:43now reached its most unaffordable level in his
- 26:47history. Oh boy, I don't want to be
- 26:53negative, right? I I'm very positive on gold and
- 26:56silver. I think you are too right.
- 26:57And even though there's some people out there that are, the
- 27:00sentiment is a little challenged right now in the precious metal
- 27:03sector. No way.
- 27:05I believe silver and gold are, are, are the place to be in the
- 27:10coming years and decades. And but we can be, I can be doom
- 27:15and gloom. I think we can be doom and gloom
- 27:17when we look at what's going on out there in the US economy.
- 27:20I mean, come on. Consumer sentiment at an all
- 27:23time low, in the stock market at an all time high.
- 27:26People can't afford housing. I mean, especially young people
- 27:30in their 20s, it's going to turn into a big money printing
- 27:35festival. It's going to turn into a what?
- 27:38I'm not going to say hyperinflation because I would
- 27:41actually be surprised. It's not out of the wrong
- 27:43possibility, But we're going to have exaggerated inflation as we
- 27:48go through these next 10 years. And I think that people that own
- 27:52gold and silver and precious metal mining stocks are going to
- 27:56be glad they did. I don't have a crystal ball, but
- 27:58that's what I see coming. All right, guys, thanks for
- 28:01joining us today. Don't forget, we forget, we love
- 28:03when you join us down here in the basement.
- 28:04Basement dwellers, we'll we'll navigate these choppy waters in
- 28:08the gold and silver market and be just fine.
- 28:12If you enjoyed your time down here, please subscribe to the
- 28:15channel. But number one, take care of
- 28:17yourself and I'll see you. Yep, we'll see you next time.
- 28:21Have a great night. Bye bye.