Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 86: Hurricane Season Forecasts Are In and a Tiny Songbird Might Have Called It First with Gary Lezak
Transcript
- 0:00Welcome to another episode of the Cattle USA Daily podcast.
- 0:03Happy Monday everyone, we are again bringing you another
- 0:07change in location for us today. I have just been on the road a
- 0:11lot. We have been all over the place
- 0:13and this past week I was on the road and then deathly sick.
- 0:18I have my Co star Mia here with me today, deathly sick this last
- 0:23week and then now we are in Wyoming.
- 0:26I had to travel on Thursday absolutely still kind of like on
- 0:31the edge of my deathbed, which was not fun.
- 0:33I don't recommend that to anyone.
- 0:34I would not wish that on my worst enemy.
- 0:37But thank the Lord the medicine that my doctors gave me is
- 0:41finally kicking in. I am feeling so much better.
- 0:45So I am so glad that we were able to take some time to record
- 0:48this podcast with Gary. I was able to come back into
- 0:51town sitting in the bomb cars parking lot today and record
- 0:55this podcast with Gary to bring you guys your Monday weather
- 0:58report and just really continue to give you those timely
- 1:01updates. We are talking some just fun
- 1:04facts in the beginning a because would it be a podcast with Gary
- 1:08if we didn't do that? And then we're talking hurricane
- 1:10season, we're talking some summer heat waves, what we're
- 1:13anticipating there and all of the things in between.
- 1:16So without further ado, let's go ahead and jump into this podcast
- 1:19with Gary. Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily
- 1:25podcast, your go to source for the latest livestock markets,
- 1:29industry insights and the update shaping agriculture today.
- 1:33I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
- 1:35agriculture here to keep you informed and connected.
- 1:39Now let's dive into today's episode.
- 1:45A different location every day. Every single.
- 1:48Time are you in every car I. Am You're never going to guess
- 1:51where I'm at. Let me guess, I can tell by the
- 1:53clouds who are you are interesting.
- 1:58It's very interesting. I would say you are in Texas.
- 2:06Nope, I I am in the Bighorn National Forest right now.
- 2:09Where the parking lot of bomb guards.
- 2:11I am in the Bighorns in Wyoming. Wow, yeah.
- 2:17So, so there's a big thunderstorm.
- 2:20So I'm thinking that you might be in Texas, but I'm just
- 2:22guessing. Yes, yes, we had rain yesterday.
- 2:27You can stop by my place on your way back.
- 2:30It's. Good.
- 2:33We'll buy you 2 drinks tonight. Yes, Oh my gosh, I need it.
- 2:37After the travel day and the week that we have had, I got so
- 2:42sick. So, so sick this week and I got
- 2:45back from we were in Branson for a wedding that we were
- 2:49photographing on Monday and we got back on Tuesday and it hit
- 2:52me on the way back that morning. We were driving back through
- 2:55Kansas City and I was like, I, I had my employee alley with me
- 2:58and I was like, Ally, I'm not feeling good.
- 3:00Like I started to get like kind of just a head cold, the
- 3:03congestion, all of that stuff. And then we make it back in that
- 3:07night. I think my body just finally
- 3:08realized like we're home And immediately I just, I was down
- 3:13for the count. It was like a head congestion
- 3:16throw. It felt like I was swallowing
- 3:18razor blades. It.
- 3:19Was it was awful, It was awful. And the next day it got even
- 3:22worse. And I was like, screw this.
- 3:26I'm going to the doctor and I get there and they're like, so
- 3:28you might have this new strand of COVID.
- 3:30And I was like, fun. That's really cool.
- 3:34I went five years without getting COVID.
- 3:36If I get it in 2025, I'm actually going to be
- 3:38embarrassed. I know I did not have that.
- 3:42They're like, we don't really know what you have, but here's a
- 3:44steroid. Hopefully that kicks it in the
- 3:46ass. And if it doesn't, we're no, we
- 3:48know you're going out of town. Here's an antibiotic just in
- 3:50case. So luckily I think the steroid
- 3:52has kicked it, but my body is rebelling against me.
- 3:55And then we are sleeping in a tent this weekend and well.
- 3:59You feel better I. Haven't I haven't slept in a
- 4:02tent in 10 years. Lions and tigers and bears, O
- 4:08mine. 37° last night in the mountain.
- 4:11And I. Froze my tush off.
- 4:14Wow. But it's OK, I've got my Red
- 4:17Bull. We are in the parking lot of a
- 4:19bomb guards. We're here and it's still a
- 4:24Friday. That's awesome and and the
- 4:27microphone that you bring with you everywhere is still working.
- 4:30It is. It is.
- 4:32It's a good mic. We're locked and loaded, ready
- 4:34to go. That's that's good.
- 4:36I'm glad you feel better. You feel there's almost better.
- 4:40Yay, praise the Lord. I know, I am so happy for that.
- 4:44That was Oh my gosh, I'm just glad you had functioning limbs
- 4:48all together. After thank you.
- 4:50Thank you very much, but. Yeah, I got that debacle.
- 4:53I woke up this morning, I'm like, wow, Lisa, I got
- 4:55functioning limbs today. Yes, yes.
- 4:59It's crazy how we just overlook that day-to-day and then
- 5:03something happens and we're like.
- 5:06We get an injury. Such an inconvenience, yes.
- 5:08It's definitely 7580% now probably, whereas I thought it
- 5:12was that level a week ago, but it really wasn't.
- 5:14But now I can I, I mean, it's not a rotator cuff because I
- 5:18don't even feel anything. So I think we're good.
- 5:21I, I, I, I, I'm on the mending, mending way.
- 5:25So that is very good. A couple things today.
- 5:27One, there's this bird, a bird called the very bird.
- 5:32Have you ever heard of the very bird?
- 5:34I've not. Well, I was with a potential
- 5:37client yesterday at lunch and it's this insurance company
- 5:41thinking of hiring us for the LRC.
- 5:43And with the cycling weather pattern, they've been following
- 5:45us for years. So they're very intrigued and
- 5:47interested. And at lunch we were talking
- 5:50about, you know, this show I got to watch on Netflix called
- 5:54Connected because you got to go watch the show Connected.
- 5:57And in the first episode, the 1st 7 minutes, literally it's a
- 6:017 minute segment, they talk about this fascinating bird, the
- 6:05very bird. The very bird is this little
- 6:07brown songbird. It's literally this big, the
- 6:10size of your fist, almost as a small little bird.
- 6:13And it migrates north to the northern United States, to the
- 6:17East Coast Delaware area. And then they weren't sure where
- 6:20they leave, but they all leave during the summer and they come
- 6:24back after winter. And where do they go?
- 6:27Well, they tagged this bird very, very birds.
- 6:31And they did an experiment and they tracked them.
- 6:34They fly to the Amazon, OK, the Amazon rainforest in South
- 6:40America every year. And then they fly back.
- 6:42And sometimes the same bird will be in the same tree in Delaware,
- 6:46which is just amazing the next year.
- 6:48And so they fly all the way down there.
- 6:51But this bird predicts the weather, you know, And I believe
- 6:56of what I've just watched just this morning, I believe it's the
- 7:02LRC. See what the bird does, they
- 7:05nest on hurricane seasons that are going to be bad.
- 7:09They leave early and they nest early.
- 7:13So they that means in March and April, they're already back up
- 7:17in Delaware and the northern United States and they're
- 7:19nesting. They're nesting early because
- 7:21they're sensing somehow over decades of instincts, who knows?
- 7:25Because remember, we always talk about the bird brain.
- 7:27How come the bird, it's a bird brain.
- 7:30That little walnut sized bird braid.
- 7:32Know the weather better than the National Hurricane Center over
- 7:35the past 20 years. When they leave early, it is
- 7:39more likely to be a bad hurricane season in the next few
- 7:42months. When they leave later, it's more
- 7:44likely to be not a bad hurricane season.
- 7:47And they predict the weather better than the National
- 7:49Hurricane Center does. And in the study by this guy who
- 7:53did a research on it, he says we don't have any idea of if
- 7:57there's any science behind this, but there is.
- 8:00It's the LRC, All right, So what happens?
- 8:03I think the birds are sensing and experiencing the cycling
- 8:07weather pattern. And as it gets to June, July and
- 8:10August, when hurricane season is approaching, they will tend to
- 8:14plan on leaving early. And they all leave early.
- 8:16They even leave their nest behind before their offspring is
- 8:19born sometimes because they know it's going to be a bad hurricane
- 8:23season because they've sensed the cycling pattern.
- 8:27So the very bird is on to something, but the humans that
- 8:33know the LRC that we're sharing with you have the little secret,
- 8:38the birds. Know that's amazing.
- 8:40So is the Leery Bird going to be the new official mascot of
- 8:42Weather 2020? It's very with the time.
- 8:45V Yeah is the very Is the very bird going to be the new
- 8:48official mascot of the Weather 2020?
- 8:50Team, that's a great idea. I think I should put the very
- 8:54bird into our logo, but then we might be giving the bird too
- 9:00much credit because the birds actually probably, you know,
- 9:03well picked up on something. It can be.
- 9:06It can be the official mascot in like internally.
- 9:09It doesn't need to be like, it doesn't need to be in the logo
- 9:12or anything, but I think you need a picture of a very bird in
- 9:15your office at the very least. I love that idea.
- 9:19If someone wants to send me a present, send me a very bird, a
- 9:22stuffed very. So that's horrible.
- 9:29Not even a picture. A stuffed fairy bird he wants.
- 9:32He wants a stuffed fairy bird guy.
- 9:34Well, I don't know about getting a real fairy bird.
- 9:36It's a wild bird. So that's it would leave.
- 9:39And if it would left early for my my, my place here in Golden,
- 9:43Co, I'd like, Oh my God, it must be a strong hurricane season.
- 9:46But I already know because we're predicting the hurricane season
- 9:50because of the LRC. Another thing, another thing,
- 9:54changing subjects. Do you believe in meteorological
- 9:57winter and summer and seasons? Or do you believe in
- 10:02astronomical winter, summer seasons, spring and fall?
- 10:07I don't know if I have an opinion on these personally.
- 10:10Can you explain the two? Can you explain the two?
- 10:13I'm a meteorologist and meteorologist made-up something
- 10:17that over the last few decades that makes sense and yet is
- 10:21totally off. Meteorologists line up seasons
- 10:26into three month periods. So June, July and August will be
- 10:30summer, September, October, November will be fall, December,
- 10:33January and February will be winter, and March, April, May
- 10:36will be spring. That those are meteorological
- 10:38seasons. So that means officially on June
- 10:411st it became summer according to meteorological summer.
- 10:46I don't agree and I'm a meteorologist as astronomer.
- 10:50The summer begins on the summer solstice, so that's going to be
- 10:53June 21st. Winter begins on the winter
- 10:56solstice, which will be around December 21st.
- 10:59Fall begins on September 23rd, not September 1st.
- 11:04And so agree with those you agree with me.
- 11:06OK. Yeah, I, I am currently in, I
- 11:09have 4 layers on right now. Gary, it is not summer.
- 11:12It's not summer. I'm cold.
- 11:14You're in Wyoming today. You have 4 layers on it is June
- 11:18the 6th of June the 7th, something like that.
- 11:21And here we are. Here we are in June.
- 11:24It's still spring, OK. And I was on the air because I'm
- 11:27filling in over there on KSHB 41 and the, the Anchorman says,
- 11:33dear God, summer started a week ago and here we are.
- 11:37It's still cold. I'm like, because summer didn't
- 11:40start yet, Wait till the first day of summer.
- 11:43And astronomers should get the leeway because astronomers are
- 11:48the best predictors in the world.
- 11:51They can tell us exactly when sunset's going to be tonight,
- 11:54exactly what sunrise is going to be tomorrow.
- 11:56They can tell us when there's going to be an eclipse, a total
- 12:00eclipse of the sun to 100 years from now down to the the second.
- 12:04So we should listen to astronomers.
- 12:06Summer begins June 21st, End of story.
- 12:09You heard it here. Absolutely.
- 12:11I I don't disagree with you one bit on that.
- 12:13It is. It is not summer here.
- 12:15I froze my ass off last night. I I'm not prescribing to that.
- 12:18I'm still cold. My feet are still not thawed
- 12:20from sleeping in the tent last night.
- 12:22So no, it is not summer. And the cold, it won't be till
- 12:25the end of the month. Cures, cures your You were sick
- 12:27earlier and it cured. So there you go.
- 12:30Yes, I am feeling too much better.
- 12:32I do. Still have my bag of cough drops
- 12:35and my big fat thing of tissues right here because I'm still a
- 12:38mess, but I am getting I'm getting better.
- 12:40We're on the we're on the mend, so.
- 12:42Oh my gosh. And we're glad you are.
- 12:45We're glad. Yes, me too.
- 12:48Me too. I really, really tried to get on
- 12:50and do podcasts this week And I I texted the team and was like,
- 12:53guys, it's not going to happen. There was one day I just didn't
- 12:56have a voice and I was like, I don't think anyone wants to hear
- 12:59from me today. Like you don't want me to show
- 13:01up and be like happy Wednesday, guys.
- 13:05Let's talk about something in that.
- 13:07We love you so much we could handle it, but let me just tell
- 13:10you, I'm just glad you sound great today.
- 13:13You know? I'm glad you feel better.
- 13:14Thank you, thank you, thank you. Well, it's a great day for it
- 13:17because I mean, it's a Friday. I get to talk to you.
- 13:20We get to be here and record our podcast.
- 13:21So as far as the weather's going, what are we seeing?
- 13:25What's what's going on with the crazy, crazy weather patterns
- 13:28out there, Gary? What happens during the summer,
- 13:31which starts here in a couple of weeks?
- 13:33Not yet, as you know, as you're freezing.
- 13:36What happens during the summer? If there was no cycling pattern
- 13:41it known as the LRC. If there was none, then what
- 13:44would happen is the land gets hotter and hotter and hotter
- 13:47with the longer days as we approach the first day of
- 13:50summer, which is the longest daylight of the year.
- 13:53Whereas the first day of winter is the shortest daylight of the
- 13:56year. The day itself is still 24 hours
- 13:58long. Just so you know.
- 13:59The days are still just as long, but the most sunlight happens on
- 14:03the first day of summer. And So what happens is it gets
- 14:08hotter and hotter and hotter, and there's a little lag
- 14:10coefficient after the first day of summer for about a month and
- 14:13a half, and then it starts turning cooler, even though the
- 14:16days start getting shortened before that.
- 14:18Same thing with winter. The coldest time of the year
- 14:20isn't on December 21st, it's usually about a month later.
- 14:23So what happens during the summer?
- 14:26It gets hotter and hotter. And when it gets hotter, the hot
- 14:30air rises, the heights rise. And as we've talked about the
- 14:33jet stream before, it shifts north and weakens over summer.
- 14:38And that's how storm systems start coming.
- 14:40That's why tornado season usually comes to a close and
- 14:43precipitation patterns might change.
- 14:46So if there was no cycling pattern, the hot air would build
- 14:49over the desert southwest of the United States and Mexico and the
- 14:53Four Corners states. It would get so hot, there would
- 14:57be a big upper level high pressure area and that is where
- 15:02it wants to be. And it'll move based on the LRC.
- 15:05See that now we can take the LRC which continue to cycle.
- 15:08It'll, I can tell you where those things are going to move,
- 15:11when they'll move to the East Coast, when they'll move to the
- 15:14middle part of the country, when they move to the West.
- 15:17Could there be a major heat wave?
- 15:19We can use the LRC and we do use the LRC to predict that.
- 15:22We do think July 10th to 20th is about a 10 day stretch where the
- 15:27heat will really peel over the corn belt and and the western
- 15:32plains. So we got to watch for that.
- 15:34It should last three to seven days if we have a heat wave
- 15:37then. And then the pressure is on when
- 15:39those heat spells are created this summer, three days in the
- 15:4490s, seven days approaching, you know, 100° if you're farther
- 15:47South. And at the end of those, when
- 15:50they break and the upper high shifts back over the deserts,
- 15:54will those cold fronts bring the timely rain to your farm, to
- 15:58your, you know, wherever you're located to your county, you'll
- 16:02need the timely range. That's where the pressure is on.
- 16:05We can tell you when those chances of rain will be, but
- 16:07that doesn't mean every single county will get hit.
- 16:10So it's just something to pay attention to.
- 16:13But just know that if there was no cycling pattern, that upper
- 16:16high would be over the Southwest forever and ever.
- 16:18But it moves around. Why?
- 16:21Because the pattern is cycling and it's pushing it to where
- 16:23it's supposed to go. Yes, we.
- 16:26Love it. And so this rain that everyone
- 16:28across the Corn Belt in the Midwest got this last week, this
- 16:31crazy, crazy rain storms, the flooding in Wichita, everything
- 16:34that we saw there, Is that something that we're going to
- 16:37see? It's going to cycle again here
- 16:39in six weeks. And if you kind of got hit this
- 16:41last time, your probability of getting hit is pretty high.
- 16:43Is that how we're kind of predicting this?
- 16:45In six weeks, when it does cycle back, the probability will be a
- 16:48little bit higher. Now we're going to be in the
- 16:51summer version of the pattern. It will be a different version.
- 16:53So it may shift north and may shift to northern Kansas or
- 16:56Nebraska, but there's going to be that anomaly.
- 16:59And what what you just said, you know, if you were listening to
- 17:02this podcast, the Kelly USA podcast, and when I was on a few
- 17:07weeks ago, we said that last week of May, the first half of
- 17:10June, the pressure is on. We're going to need that to
- 17:14produce rain. Otherwise we could have drought
- 17:16conditions. Well, guess what?
- 17:18It did produce rain as predicted by the LRC model.
- 17:21And so now we're going to go into northwest flow and those
- 17:24heights are going to rise. So we'll also see how it sets
- 17:27up. We'll talk about that next week.
- 17:29But yeah, the same pattern is going to continue through the
- 17:31summer, but the jet stream shifts north.
- 17:33Yes, hurricane season is hot on everyone's mind right now.
- 17:37Everyone is talking about it and we talked a little bit about it
- 17:40last week. Our predictions are you're going
- 17:42to have a lot of named storms this year and a lot on the
- 17:45Louisiana side, Texas. We're going to be seeing a lot
- 17:48on the Gulf, a little bit on the Pacific side.
- 17:51But what are any other predictions or thoughts as far
- 17:54as hurricane season goes this coming?
- 17:57Yes, yeah, we, our prediction from Weather 2020, emphasis the
- 18:02LRC is that we will have 17 to 23 named storms this season,
- 18:06which is above the average of 14 named storms.
- 18:10And we're predicting specifically down the middle 20
- 18:13named storms, The ACE, the Cuban cycle energy will be well above
- 18:18average. So a very active hurricane
- 18:22season is ahead of us beginning this weekend.
- 18:26Right now I'm going to be recording every Saturday and
- 18:30you'll be recording and showing the tropical updates.
- 18:32So on our weather2020.substack.com
- 18:36account, if you become a member there, you'll get the tropical
- 18:39update every Saturday and you'll get the agriculture outlook
- 18:42every Tuesday. That'll be or Wednesday,
- 18:44somewhere in that range, but I'll be twice a week reports and
- 18:48so I'm going to concentrate on that.
- 18:51You know, we're proud that Weather 2020 is the number one
- 18:53source for hurricane prediction this season.
- 18:56There hasn't been a hint of a named storms yet, but it's early
- 19:00in the big, huge active year that Katrina was in and Rita was
- 19:04in. It was a Dennis was in a big
- 19:06hurricane season in 2004 or 2005.
- 19:10I think that was. And that got started around June
- 19:1410th. So let's see what happens in the
- 19:15next week or two. See, if we get our first name
- 19:17storm and we'll have to pay close attention, but I'm
- 19:20expecting it to be active in Texas, Louisiana and the East
- 19:24Coast to Florida. It could possibly get hit.
- 19:27When is the last time there was a major hurricane, Category 3 or
- 19:33stronger on the East Coast from Maine all the way down to Maine,
- 19:36down to Miami, from Maine to Miami?
- 19:38When was the last time there was a major hurricane?
- 19:42What year do you think? I could not tell.
- 19:44You. I was in four.
- 19:45It's been 21 years. Wow.
- 19:47Since a major hurricane. East Coast.
- 19:49Yeah. Wow, I was three years old.
- 19:53Oh my gosh, when I was 6. Gosh, wow, that's crazy.
- 19:57That has been a really long time.
- 19:58And so you're predicting one of those this year?
- 20:00I'm three years older than you. Well, of course, of course,
- 20:05everyone knows that. We'll see.
- 20:07It's been 21 years since they've been hit by one.
- 20:10I do see opportunities this year for or it could be a risk early
- 20:14September. So we'll be monitoring that.
- 20:17But yeah, it's been a long time. Yeah, that's crazy.
- 20:20That's awesome. Any other highs, lows, things
- 20:24that we need to head on as far as the weather goes?
- 20:27That was actually a poem. That was so unintentional.
- 20:31Any highs, any lows, Gary, What do you know how the weather
- 20:35goes? Something like that.
- 20:39Sometimes I question the things that come out of my own mouth,
- 20:42but you know, that worked. I think next week's conversation
- 20:45is going to be interesting because because we're going into
- 20:49the summer pattern starting in the next week to 10 days.
- 20:52So how will precipitation patterns start setting up?
- 20:56And next week, I'd love to go dive deeper into that.
- 21:01Yes, absolutely. Well, I'm excited for it.
- 21:04As always. We love bringing all of our
- 21:06listeners new topics every single week that we're kind of
- 21:09heading on talking about. We bring some routine things.
- 21:12As we're going into obviously hurricane season and summer,
- 21:14we're going to be talking about that a little bit more.
- 21:16We're going to be talking about things that we've seen over the
- 21:18recent weeks and how that cycling and what that's going to
- 21:20look like. And hell, we maybe we maybe even
- 21:23be talking about birds. You never know on here.
- 21:25OK, we're bringing it all for you guys.
- 21:27Yes, we're bringing all the fun facts.
- 21:29You're going to learn something new at the very least and be
- 21:33entertained by Gary and I. So as always, it was a great
- 21:36Friday chatting about all of these things and we hope that
- 21:39all of this information was really great for you guys.
- 21:41If you enjoyed this podcast, make sure you go check out
- 21:43Gary's Substack that we're gonna have LinkedIn the show notes.
- 21:46Get it on that weekly hurricane tropical season report.
- 21:49Get in on that AG report and then make sure you go check out
- 21:52our exclusive Cattle USA link that we have with Weather 2020
- 21:55down in the show notes as well, where you guys can get some
- 21:57access to that and see the global predictor and the daily
- 22:01dashboard and what all of that can be doing for all of you guys
- 22:04out there as you finish up planting season and start
- 22:06preparing for fall and everything as far as that goes.
- 22:09So Gary, as always, it was a pleasure.
- 22:12It was so fun. It's a new location every week
- 22:15with us, I. Think it's just going to become
- 22:16a routine? It's so fascinating that you
- 22:17feel better have a great camping trip.
- 22:20And thank you, I'll. Try to get it to warm up.
- 22:23Yes, I, I would appreciate that if you could send all of that.
- 22:26It is supposed to warm up on Saturday.
- 22:27It's supposed to get up to 75, which is crazy because I have
- 22:30like 4 layers on three pairs of socks, leggings and sweatpants.
- 22:35And I was freezing my Tosh off last night and then on Saturday
- 22:38I'm going to be in shorts and AT shirt.
- 22:40But you know, I'm not complaining if it needs to be
- 22:43cold one day while we're here or a day and a half over here.
- 22:47I I can manage and it'll be beautiful on Saturday And I just
- 22:50keep on reminding myself of that.
- 22:52It'll bring great perspective to your life.
- 22:54Enjoy the trip. Yes, thank you so much, Gary,
- 22:58and to all of our listeners out there, thank you for listening
- 23:00and we will see you all next time on another episode.
- 23:02Have a good one y'all.