Latest / Who's On First? / Episode 11- Rays VS Brewers World Series Preview and Predictions
Transcript
- Joseph: Well, hello, hello. Welcome back to the Who's On First Show. My name is Joseph Lunn. So happy you could be joining me. We got more playoff baseball and World Series baseball to talk about. So, what are we going to cover today? Well, game six of the American League Championship Series, the Rays, moving on to the Fall Classic. I'm gonna give you my World Series previews, predictions, how these two teams stack up with each other, and then we got some more managerial news in Major League Baseball. With the Yankees and Aaron Boone all coming up on the Who's On the First Show. So let's get going. Starting with game six in the drop. Had to get it in early after the rain delay that we lost today in Cleveland. They got the game in. Game six and the Rays moving on to the fall classic. So there you go. The Rays are moving on. They win their third American League pennant 2026, 2020, and 2008. It was the exact same day that they won it in 2008, it was yesterday when they took it home on Monday. So let's get to this game. What happened? What went wrong for the Guardians? And I think the Guardians just kind of ran out of steam. Is the big storyline with this one, with the amount of bullpen days they had to use? You can only go so far in a to in October. October with two main starters, that being Parker Mesek and Gavin Williams. And after that, it was just bullpen days. And I think the White Sox series really came back to bite them. And then that one went five games. And now you're going right into the ALCS where you're already down pitching. That pitching had a lot of mileage on it. And now you're throwing so many bullpen games that bullpen just had so much use. and it was a recipe for disaster, and it comes back to bite them here as the Rays win it in six. They went up early, two to nothing with the Palacios two-run double. Then they went up three after a Johnny DeLuca sack fly. Then Nate Lau made it three to one. He was the offensive bright spot by far for the Guardians in this one. Then it was the Junior Camonero two-run home run that made it five to one. And this was the big moment if you are a Tampa Bay Rays fan. How good are you feeling now that Jr. Camanero really unlocked things? He had been their cornerstone throughout the entire year, their best offensive bat by far. And he had been okay in the postseason. He was hitting eight for 32. He had no home runs up to this point and 13 strikeouts. So he was not really getting it done. And then he goes up this bat against Cade Smith, who is one of the best closers in the American League. Certainly an argument that he is the best closer in the American League. He's been so solid all year. He gets the splitter inside and he just uses his strength to muscle it out over the short porch. 315 to left in Tampa Bay. And that was the moment that unlocked things, especially if you're a Rays fan. Knowing that he found something and the emotion that he showed afterwards in his trot around the bases and how long that took. He was feeling it. And that is such a positive sign. Again, if you're a Rays fan. That he unlocked that and he has so much confidence now going in to this now World Series against Milwaukee. Getting him to build up his confidence in addition to the win is gonna be crucial and pay massive dividends for the Rays moving on. I also thought it was super cool. Kate Smith and this postseason post-game press conferences. There's been so much talk in the last six years of baseball, starting in kind of 2020 of celebrations and home runs celebrations. celebrations and how intense should they be and how crazy they should be and swinging three and on stuff and all the unwritten rules of baseball that became the forefront of so much of baseball talk for so long in the MLB. And there's certainly a difference in hitting a home run like that in game 40 of the regular season and game six of the ALCS. But Smith said, you know, he wasn't a fan of the celebration, but the best way to limit that is not giving up the home run. And I think that's a really cool way of looking at things is if you're not a fan of something or someone overly celebrating, I thought it was really cool. and if you go back, look in the offseason, Cameronero played in the Dominican League, where it's it's just a whole different brand of baseball and how they've used Celebrating and the game and it's a lot of fun and exciting to play there. but I think thought that was really cool from Smith of not not taking offense to it and taking the responsibility of hey, if I don't like it, I gotta not give up the home run. and Kate Smith, again, one of the best closers in the MLB, certainly in the American League. he has a long future ahead of him as long as the Guardians can get him some help, because he had so much mileage on his arm going into this series. But thought that was cool. And then Yandi Diaz crushes a two-run home run. That really put things out of reach, making it seven to three. And that was it. Reyes moving on. It was super cool afterwards, seeing the excitement that all their players had in their interviews and in the trophy presentation. Freddie Peralta deservedly wins the American League Championship Series MVP. There were a couple guys that could have gone to, whether it was Yandi Diaz, even Chandler Simpson, which how much of a role he played in. in that series. Obviously Drew Rasmussen and the incredible pitching performance he had in his second start of the series. But it deservedly goes to Freddie Peralta. That's another bright spot for this Rays team is how it was not one guy carrying them through the postseason. it's been multiple guys, so many role players all coming together to now have this run that they've gone on. But just take a listen to a couple of their quotes and the press conferences after the game. Thought they were pretty cool. So there you go. For those of you that were audio only, that was Yom Dez there predicting that the Rays were going to win the World Series and then running off and celebrating with his team. Super cool moment there. And for this Rays organization, now let's get to the World Series and the preview of this World Series, as well as my picks. It is going to be a fun one that I think baseball needs. And that is going to be so cool and so much fun to watch. And I've talked about it a lot on the show of how baseball is going more and more. Towards a true three outcome sport, meaning walk, strikeout, or home run. That were that is where it continues to trend more and more. We see home runs go up every single year, walks and strikeout rates all climbing. And this these are two teams that really go against that and are not as much of three-outcome teams, but teams that you could say play the game the right way of how they go about things, stealing bases, getting runners on, driving them in, hitting incredibly Well, with runners in scoring position. That is the embodiment of baseball and the type of baseball that these two teams play. It's two smaller market teams, and with all the talks of a lockout and overspending, underspending in the MLB, I think it's again great for the sport that it's two smaller market teams, and we're gonna get a chance to see how the MLB is going to network and market this series. It's gonna be really cool. Crucial of how they market the series and what is the agenda they want to set in this series with two small market teams. You don't get the coast to coast storylines. For the past two years, it's been really easy for the MLB with it was Dodgers Yankees, the coastal matchup, the two big teams fighting for the Yankees 27 World Series championships, the Dodgers looking for that one after their 2020 win to really legitimize the dynasty they were. going on and get a win in 162 game season. Then in 25 it was the Ray or excuse me, it was the Blue Jays and the Dodgers again. You had the storyline of the Dodgers going trying to go back to back and the Blue Jays, this up and coming American League team. Again, you had coast to coast, but it's going to be interesting to see how does MLB market this game. I think it's going to be a really fun series to watch for just baseball fans who love the game as this one will be a little bit more unconventional. But I'm certainly more excited for It and I think this will have a big impact on how we look at the game moving forward, and especially with the CBA expiring soon. I think this series will have a big impact on that and how well it does, especially with TV ratings. It stinks that there's so much extracurricular external stuff being applied to this series, but it's just the fact of the matter: baseball is a business, as much as so many people don't like that aspect of things, and how much money is. Tight end and involved in the game and with how the owners have been in the last couple years. that'll be interesting to see. And it's certainly one I'm looking forward to. So now let's get to these two teams. How do they stack up? We can go position by position. I definitely want to look at the starting rotation. And so I'm gonna go off of who I give the nod or the edge to when we look at the bullpen, the starting rotations, the lineups, and then kind of the X factor, and I'll give you my prediction of who I think will. wins it all, and in how many games. So let's start off looking at the lineups for the Brewers, it'll be Contreras catching Bowers at first, Tarang at second, Cooper Pratt at shortstop, Hamilton at third, and then outfield will be Churio, Mitchell, and Freelick with the captain Christian Yelich DHing. Then for the Rays, it'll be Liam Hicks at catcher, then Aranda, Aranda, Palacios, Tyler Walls, Junior Camonero, Simpson, DeLuca, Mesa, and Diaz will round out things in that lineup going around the horn, around the end. And we look at kind of the stars on both of these teams. For the Brewers, Jackson Churio has not been great in the postseason. When we look at that, he's sitting 171 in the postseason. Obviously, he had the huge NLDS getting the game-winning walk-off against Mason Miller, but that is really all that he has done. He has two home runs as well, which is good. He's got the power going, but only hitting 171, a.5 OPS, which is not great. That's a guy you want on. Steve Bases, playing brewer ball, as they say, winning things their way. That's the the message and the motto that is plastered all over Milwaukee right now is winning things their way. And he is someone that has to get going. I think the the matchup that is going to be really fun to watch of two guys who are faces of their franchise, Enchurio Camanero, and who really gets things going. Camanero's been a little bit better in the postseason. He's hitting 273, got the one home run against. Smith and 806 OPS. But that's going to be the really fun matchup to see, even though they're not at the same position of who gets it going, and really is the spark plug for their offense respectively. Brewers obviously have Jake Bowers, the NLCS MVP, who continues to grind at bats. He had the 11-pitch home run and the 12-pitch walk. that big home run that sealed the deal. It was in game three of the NLCS. He's got six RBIs, as well as Wilson Contreras has been the badman for the Brewers. 367 average in the postseason. Three home runs, five RBIs. He's one dotting, 1.1 OPS. And it's gonna be interesting to see how these two teams match up against opposing pitching staffs. Brewers are hitting 250 compared to the Reyes 232 as a team. And I'm going to give the edge when it comes to lineups and offense to the Milwaukee Brewers to start things off. 4.25 runs per game compared to the Rays, 3.89. And the Brewers have been so consistent in scoring runs and getting people on. Getting traffic on the bases has been so important for both of these teams. But so far we've seen the Brewers been able to capitalize more, and they have more of the power threat. Ten home runs for the Brewers compared to the seven for Tampa Bay in this postseason. But the the glaring number on The stat sheet, and what I have prepped. I usually just prep one quick sheet that I get a quickly glance at for my stats. And the one I have highlighted is with runners in scoring position, the brewers are 16 for 57. And both of those numbers you can circle as they give the advantage to the Brewers because with runners in scoring position in the postseason, Tampa Bay is just six for 35. So what does that show? They have not been great in coming through with runners in scoring position as well. is they have not been able to create as many chances as the Brewers have. And I think this is going to be a series where the two teams are going to be trying to wear each other down. And the quality of it bats against the quality of competition that we've seen the Brewers play and how they've had, I think that is going to wear down this Rays staff more than the Brewers can than the Rays can wear down this brewer's pitching staff. And I think that's going to be the key and something that the Brewers have excelled That so far throughout this postseason run is getting starters out early, getting to those marquee starters, Yamamoto's, the Scoobels, the Glasnows and Snells, Michael King, guys like that for the Padres and Dodgers, they've been able to make them a non-factor in the series that they've played, whether it be the DS or the CS. And that's gonna be crucial for the Brewers, and I think that's where they fare better in wearing down competition over and over. And over and the one to nine lineup depth that you have with this Brewers team. I think that gives them the edge offensively. and I'm going to give the early lead to the Brewers on this one when it comes to the offense. So now let's get to the pitching rotations. They're both going to be similar, and it will be three set starters and then a bullpen game. That's how both of these teams are going to go about things. For the Brewers, it'll be Mizarowski, Henderson, and Robert Gasser as your three starters. And for Tampa Bay, it'll be Drew Rasmussen, Freddie Peralta, and Nick Martinez. And so now who do I give the edge to? If it was the regular season, I would pick the Brewers. Jacob Mizarowski is gonna win the National League, Cy Young. It will be unanimous. Logan Henderson has been amazing in the regular season. Never won a start where he allowed more than three runs. And then Gasser has been so solid in this postseason run that they've now been on. Nine innings pitched, only one earn run allowed and six strikeouts. He has been everything that they've asked of him of being a somewhat opener, lower inning starter. He has embodied that role and done an absolutely fantastic. Job. If you had said through two series, who would have more innings pitched with a lower ERA? Would it be Mizarowski or Robert Gasser? And it's Gasser by far. Mizorowski eight in the third innings pitched a 3-2-4 ERA, has the 11 strikeouts, and then I will mention Gasser, the nine innings pinched with just one urn run allowed. And again, if it was the regular season, love what Mizarowski's done and the track record he has. However, in the postseason, this Rays starting pitching staff has absolutely dominated teams. And these two teams, they're kind of inverted in the quality of competition that they had. They the Brewers play the Padres first and then get the Juggernaut and the Dodgers, as opposed to the Rays get the Yankees first in that DS and then get the Guardians. I think we can both look at those two matchups that they've had and pick which one's been stronger. And in the stronger opponent, the two teams have fared better. The Brewers absolutely dominating the Dodgers, pulling out the brooms and sweeping them. The Rays absolutely dominating the Yankees, pulling out the Brooms and sweeping them. And a big part of that for the Brewers has been the lineup and how they've gone about things. But for the Rays, the headliner of this postseason run for them has been. Ben the starting pitching. Drew Rasmussen, it feels like he is on no hitter watch every time he has towed the rubber in the postseason. 21 innings pitched, a 1-3 ERA and 23 strikeouts. Then Freddie Peralta, your non-ace, wins the ALCS MVP. 16 and two-thirds innings pitched, a 108 ERA and 12 strikeouts. And then Nick Martinez, the third man in that rotation. Nine innings pitched, a three ERA and six strikeouts. And then Griffin Jax has kind of been their fourth starter, but again, he is more of a bullpen guy. So I'm going include him when I talk about the bullpens in a second. But for this one, Mizarowski is great. Henderson's been so good. And Robert Gasser has been amazing. But I'm giving the edge to the Tampa Bay Rays. And the postseason resume that they have put together is the one that I like a lot better. I think Rasmussen and Peralta fare really well against the Brewers, and that they don't mind. Yeah. commotion and a lot of base runners. They don't mind that, especially Peralta. When he came over from the Mets to the rays, one of the first things they did was up his changeup usage, yes, which we talked about, but they also had him start pitching out of the stretch. And so we look at a lot of times guys fare worse when they're in the stretch with traffic on the base pass. Peralta invites that. He is a contact pitcher. He doesn't mind that in the 16 innings pitched, only 12 strikeouts compared to Rasmussen's 23k And 21 innings pitched. He's not a guy that relies on the strikeout as much. He's fine with traffic going on the bases. And so I really like Peralta going against his former team is going to be really fun to watch. He talked about how he has such a love for the city of Milwaukee. It's where his children are born. But he wants to go compete and he wants to go win a World Series now for Tampa Bay. As opposed to Mizorowski against a more contact-heavy lineup like the Rays, fares off worse because he relies. lies so much on the strikeout. His case per nine is ridiculous throughout the year. But the Rays are not a team that strikes out. that was something the Guardians, their pitching staff racked up seventy five strikeouts in five games against the White Sox. And then when they played the Rays, they couldn't rely on the strikeout as much. They the Rays forced them to make plays. And there have been a couple points in that series where it was Guardians airs or miscues or just the constant traffic on the base pass that led to the Rays picking up a couple wins. And so I like the Ra so I like the Rays pitching staff in this one with how these two teams play the game of baseball. And then now let's get to the bullpens. What do I think? and it's been flat out domination for the Rays bullpen in this one, especially against the Dodgers. that that bullpen was put on a pedestal and shown to the entire world of how good they are. That NLCS game one was the most viewed NLCS game and history. So the entire world saw just how good this Brewers bullpen was going into the postseason. There was so much talk about how amazing the Padres bullpen was with Miller and Adam and Morahone and those guys. And the Brewers outdueled him by far. And then there was so much talk about the Dodgers and how much money they spent on their bullpen and Edwin Diaz and Tanner Scott and Vesia. And they completely outmatched him in that series. Ashby, 12 and a third innings pitch, no earned runs allowed, 11 strikeouts. Jojo Romero, 5 3rd innings pitch, the 1-7 ERA, 9 strikeouts. Abney Rebe, 6 3rd, 284 ERA. DL Hall, 5-3rd, no earned runs allowed. And Trevor McGill, 5-3rd, no earned runs allowed. Ridiculous numbers for this Milwaukee. Bullpen. That has been so solid and they trust them so much. They don't mind pulling the starter early to get to that Brewers bullpen with how much they trust these guys on the back end of the bullpen. and so for this one, I would early on, I'm gonna say I'm giving the edge to the Brewers on the opposite side for the bullpen of Tampa Bay. I'm including Griffin Jackson this, who's had six innings pitched six earned runs, then Ian Seymour, seven and a third, a three-six. Kevin Kelly two and a third to three eight six. Cam Boozer has obviously been their best arm as well as Brian Baker. They've combined for 11 and 2 thirds with no earned runs allowed. Baker, six strikeouts, and then Cole Sulser, just point two innings pitched in a 40 ERA. He has not had a good time in the postseason. And when we look at these two bullpen ERAs, Milwaukee 133 ERA compared to the Rays 3-6, and they have shown that they don't mind letting the other team see them. That was especially apparent against the Dodgers, is how that bullpen for Milwaukee was used so much over and over and over. And it seemed like surely the Dodgers will get a good look and get used to this pitching and get a breakthrough inning. And That was not the case at all as the Brewers flat out dominated the Dodgers throughout the entirety of that series. When we look at just between Ashby, Hall, and McGill, they have 23 innings, 23 and third innings pitch, no earned runs allowed, and they had so many looks against the Dodgers lineup. And yet, time and time again, they limited damage, stranded runners, and I think that's going to be the key because I think both of these bullpens are going to be used a lot. And sorry, this this Episode has been a lot of statistics just being thrown at you and so I'm gonna try and get as much commentary in as possible of I think a lot of these starters are not gonna last as long as they've been able to, especially for the Rays with the success they've had at the starting rotation. I think maybe they get one or two long games quality starts from Rasmussen or Peralta. But then it's gonna come down to the bullpens, and that's where I'd give by far the edge to Milwaukee of they don't mind the workload that they've had, as opposed to the Rays have had a lot less of a workload with the starting pitching that they've had going deep into games. But when they have gotten the ball, they have not been good. And there's gonna be one or two games this series where they certainly won because they will have to do a bullpen game. And then I would say two or three games this series where a rays starter does. not go long and then the raised bullpen has to come in and pick up five to seven innings of a game and that is when they're gonna struggle and the brewers are just gonna be able to wear them down over and over and over something the Dodgers were not able to do against the Brewers. And so I give the Brewers the edge on the bullpen side of things just because they are going to fare much better with the workload that is required from both of these teams in the postseason. And these are two teams now that are very fun to root for. both teams looking for their franchise's first ever World Series appearance. The last time the Brewers were in the World Series was 42 years ago. For the Rays, they had the 2020 shortened season where they fell to the Dodgers in six games. And then in 2008, they made it to the World Series but could not get the job done in the fall classic. As well as its two managers who are really fun to root for and very underrated. And just now getting their flowers. For Pat Murphy, a guy who for so long worked as a college head coach at Arizona State and Notre Dame. Fun story about him is he coached Craig Council at Notre Dame and then served as Craig Council's bench coach at the Brewers before Council left for Chicago. And Murphy finally got the MLB promotion that he had been looking for to manager. He has done an excellent job at the helm for the Brewers, and then on the opposite side, Kevin Cash is one of the Best managers in baseball by far. He's won multiple manager of the year awards, but it stinks because his legacy is tainted by the 2020 World Series when he took Blake Snell out early because he relied too much on the analytics. And so this is gonna be a fun get back series for him as both of these teams are gonna be heavily scrutinized on the managerial decisions that they make. So that's gonna be interesting to watch. And so now. Who do I think wins the 2026 World Series? After all we've gone through looking at both of these teams, and I'm going to give the edge and my prediction to the Milwaukee Brewers. I think being at home, it advan having home field advantage will help them. It'll be 2-3-2. I think the Brewers get it done in six in front of that home crowd and give the city of Milwaukee the win that they have been waiting so long to get for all of the postseason mishaps and downs that they have had. I think they finally get it done. I think it's going to be a really fun, close back and forth series with how these two teams play and their style of baseball. But I'm giving the edge and I'm giving my pick to the Brewers in six. obviously in my pre-postseason bracket, I had the Dodgers going all the way against the Rays. but here, just looking at this World Series under a microscope, I'm taking the Milwaukee Brewers. so a fun series that I'm definitely looking forward to that I'll get going later. This week. And then one more thing to talk about is Aaron Boone of the New York Yankees. He will be back as the Yankees manager in 2027. There is a lot of talk about Boone and how he handles his dugout and the attention to detail that the Yankees have. And I talked a lot about it in their loss to the Rays in the division series. but I don't think a lot of that can fall on Aaron Boone. I think more of it is on the front office and how they choose to structure the system and the things that they focus on from the majors to the minors. I think there needs to be a systematic changing of things for the Yankees. and additionally I think the lockout helped Aaron Boone as well as many other managers. the past couple years, we've seen four to five managers get fired. but this year it's going to be a lot different with the impending lockout. And the reason for that is during the lockout, team managers and officials and front office staff are not allowed to have any communication with Major League Baseball players. And so it's really hard during a lockout for a new coach to come in and implement the system. That they want and build the connections that they want with the players. Because typically, when a new coach is hired, they then spend the entire offseason going around visiting all their major league players, getting to know them, building the dugout chemistry and their relationships with the players. You're not able to do that during a lockout, which it it is coming. and so I think that's a big reason for this. when it comes to the Yankees mishaps, again, I think it's more of a systematic thing and not one where you can point. The blame at one guy. But his contract only goes through 2027, so we will see in the future what happens there and what changes are made. And that is all I got. That's my pick for the World Series and my two cents. Looking forward to that. I'll have an episode, another one coming out this week once we get one or two World Series games. I'll talk more about those as we look forward in the MLB to crowning a champion. But until then, that's all I got. Thank you so much for tuning. Tuning in. Comment below. Who do you think is going to win the 2026 World Series? Who do you think wins the franchise's first World Series? Is it the Rays? Is it the Brewers? Tell me what you think where I had something wrong or something you don't agree with. Leave a like wherever you're watching. Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube helps me out a lot. Leave a review. But that is all I got. Thanks so much for tuning in. I'm Joseph Lund saying so long.