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$20 Billion a Week — What Could Go Wrong? - Michael Pento #6372 · Financial Survival Network

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  Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial
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  Speaker 3: Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Let's. Michael Pento is
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  Speaker 3: with us now pentoport dot com. Michael, you've had you
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  Speaker 3: pretty much have called the rally in gold, the markets, bonds,
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  Speaker 3: You've been nailing it for years. Now where are we
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  Speaker 3: right now in this crazy cycle? We saw gold silver
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  Speaker 3: prices take off, now they're pulling back. Is the bull
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  Speaker 3: market in gold and silver over? And what about the
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  Speaker 3: stock bull market?
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  Speaker 4: We're certainly thanks for having me on carry well. We're
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  Speaker 4: certainly we're certainly in a pause that freshes right now.
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  Speaker 4: For the precious market to say that, for me to
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  Speaker 4: say the precious metals bull market, the primary bill market
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  Speaker 4: is over, the secular bull market is over, I would
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  Speaker 4: have to see some kind of complete redemption on the
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  Speaker 4: part of the US administration and the government, the powers
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  Speaker 4: would be listen. This is what I mean when I
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  Speaker 4: say that, let's just go back a little brief walk
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  Speaker 4: in memory lane. So I remember when I was a kid,
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  Speaker 4: a young man, getting into this business in the early nineties,
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  Speaker 4: and I had a conversation. I was speaking with the
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  Speaker 4: Federal Reserve officials of the time at great length, and
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  Speaker 4: I remember Richard Fisher was not wide and speaks directly
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  Speaker 4: to Richard Fisher and his colleagues were saying that the
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  Speaker 4: US would never suffer through any period of inflation problem
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  Speaker 4: at all because we would never monetize government debt, would
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  Speaker 4: never happen. And you know you here's a quote from him.
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  Speaker 4: The hyper inflation comes from when the government monetizes trillions
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  Speaker 4: of dollars in debt. And that will never happen here
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  Speaker 4: in the United States. It's just an it's anathema, unfathomable.
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  Speaker 4: It will never occur. So, so just so we go,
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  Speaker 4: there be part of history here. You remember, right before
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  Speaker 4: the Great Recession occurred, the balance sheet of the Fellow
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  Speaker 4: Reserve was around eight hundred billion dollars. Because of this
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  Speaker 4: financial crisis, Brank you took the balance sheet to around
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  Speaker 4: two trillion dollars. But remember he said it would temporarily.
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  Speaker 4: So what happens is to be specific, central bank prints
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  Speaker 4: a bunch of money, buys bank's bad assets at the time,
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  Speaker 4: which your mortgage backed securities, and then we'll take some
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  Speaker 4: treasuries on on board too. Balance sheet goes from eight
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  Speaker 4: hundred billion to a little bit over two trillion, and
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  Speaker 4: that was supposed to be temporary. So the recession ended
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  Speaker 4: in March of two thousand and nine. Carrie, did we
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  Speaker 4: go back to eight hundred million dollars in a ballon sheet?
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  Speaker 2: No, No, that didn't happen.
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  Speaker 4: We went to we went By the time mister Powell
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  Speaker 4: took office, we were at four and a half trillion
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  Speaker 4: dollars the ballance sheet, and because of the pandemic, it
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  Speaker 4: went to nine trillion. And did we go back to
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  Speaker 4: four and a half trillion, No, we went to six
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  Speaker 4: and a half trillion down. And guess what's happening now?
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  Speaker 4: This maniac money printer is printing about twenty billion dollars
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  Speaker 4: a freaking week, and balance sheets now rising back to
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  Speaker 4: six point seven trillion dollars, and that's on his way
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  Speaker 4: to seven trillion, back to seven trillion dollars. So I
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  Speaker 4: agree with one thousand percent with President Trump that your
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  Speaker 4: own power should be fired, but not because he's not
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  Speaker 4: lowering innswoer strates. Because he's he's the biggest I don't
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  Speaker 4: want to use the word counterfeiter. I was trying not
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  Speaker 4: to do that anymore. He's the biggest money printer that
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  Speaker 4: America has ever suffered through it. So you asked so to.
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  Speaker 4: So here's the problem, and I'll let you, And I
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  Speaker 4: just want to say this, There isn't going to be
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  Speaker 4: any end to the inexorable rise of the Fed's balance
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  Speaker 4: sheet because America's debt problem hasn't been solved. It's getting
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  Speaker 4: much worse two trillion dollar deficits. In peace time deficits
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  Speaker 4: usually go up by two hundred to three hundred percent.
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  Speaker 4: So we're looking at four to six trillion in the
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  Speaker 4: next recession. And who the heck's gonna buy it? You
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  Speaker 4: think China and Japan are going to step up and
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  Speaker 4: buy our debt? Now? Is Russia gonna buy our debt? No,
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  Speaker 4: it's all on us. And it's not on us because
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  Speaker 4: we're not paying four percent on a ten year note
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  Speaker 4: when inflation is at back at nine percent. Because that's
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  Speaker 4: where it's going, and it's going much higher. So their
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  Speaker 4: answer is the Federal Reserve is gonna buy it. We're
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  Speaker 4: gonna con continue monetizing our problems away, and gold and
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  Speaker 4: silver and platinum are going much higher. Now they're taking
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  Speaker 4: a pause that refreshes. We're not we're not in the
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  Speaker 4: middle of a recession. Even though eighty percent of the
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  Speaker 4: nation is in a recession, the twenty percent are keeping
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  Speaker 4: is going So it's a pause, a consolidation, a pause
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  Speaker 4: that refreshes. But they're going much higher in the future.
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  Speaker 4: I'm going to try to time that the next phase
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  Speaker 4: of the bull market should be happening soon.
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  Speaker 3: So inflation is going to be good for stocks.
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  Speaker 4: Uh well, why more Germany. You know, if you shorted
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  Speaker 4: the wy More German stocks market, you will lost a
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  Speaker 4: lot of money. So in nominal terms they might go
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  Speaker 4: a little higher. In real terms, you're gonna you know,
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  Speaker 4: you'll you'll be you'll be bankrupt. I mean so sort
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  Speaker 4: of like social Security. Carry people laugh and they say, well,
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  Speaker 4: you know social Security is back by the full faith
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  Speaker 4: in credit the US government blah blah blah. I said,
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  Speaker 4: you're gonna and I agree with you. You are going to
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  Speaker 4: get your one hundred percent guarantee. You're one hundred percent
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  Speaker 4: premium on your your sipepend on your and your Social
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  Speaker 4: Security check. Absolutely, ask me what it'll buy you.
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  Speaker 2: That's a good question. Will it buy the oh much?
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  Speaker 4: Not much? But they fulfill their obligation. They fulfilled on
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  Speaker 4: their obligations. But they monetize the crap out of the
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  Speaker 4: US Treasury and they own they they own all the
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  Speaker 4: bank badasses of banks and the dollar crash, and they've
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  Speaker 4: they've destroyed the purchasing power of the middle class. However,
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  Speaker 4: here's your check. Go buy a sticky gum.
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  Speaker 3: I'm glad I'm getting mine now. You know, I switched.
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  Speaker 3: I switched to full retirement. Even the seventy I was
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  Speaker 3: going to get more money, because I just said, you know,
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  Speaker 3: it's a purchasing power or rush for the doors, and
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  Speaker 3: I'm better off with the purchasing power or whatever it
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  Speaker 3: is now, even for lesser money than I will be
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  Speaker 3: later with more money.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, yep. You know. I had some childhood friends stay
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  Speaker 4: at my house recently, and my my friend's son is
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  Speaker 4: four years old, works for the government. He's a very
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  Speaker 4: very very good man. H looking to buy a house.
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  Speaker 4: And you know what he told He makes a pretty
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  Speaker 4: good salary working for the government, a nice income, and
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  Speaker 4: they have a great retirement program. Can't afford to buy
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  Speaker 4: a house? Carry can't afford it? And why is that?
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  Speaker 4: Do you think it happened by osmosis? And the answer
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  Speaker 4: is the home price to income ratio is higher today
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  Speaker 4: than it's ever been before, even higher than it was
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  Speaker 4: in the in the housing bubble. And why did that happen? Well,
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  Speaker 4: we just talked about it. The federal reserve is monetizing
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  Speaker 4: every single problem away. We have to get a grip
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  Speaker 4: on the federal reserve. We have to stop their manipulation
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  Speaker 4: of interest rates. We have to stop their ever inexorable
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  Speaker 4: expanding of their balance sheet. And Kevin Worse, by the way,
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  Speaker 4: is a good you know, I'm so. I'm a fan
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  Speaker 4: of his. If he lives up to his billing, he's
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  Speaker 4: going maybe lower interest rates on the margin. He's correct,
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  Speaker 4: He's very correct in his assertion that inflation doesn't come
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  Speaker 4: from growth or prosperity.
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  Speaker 3: I love it.
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  Speaker 4: He's correct. Yeah, you know great. You know, if you
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  Speaker 4: look at every single single iteration of inflation problems in
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  Speaker 4: this country, it was it was coinciding with high unemployment rates,
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  Speaker 4: not low unemployment rates, high unemployment rates. So when you
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  Speaker 4: tell people they can't they can't produce things, but you
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  Speaker 4: give them a check in the mail like we did
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  Speaker 4: in post COVID, you get your inflation and that's exactly
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  Speaker 4: where that's exactly where inflation comes from. So I think
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  Speaker 4: we're going to be doing that again. But if worsh
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  Speaker 4: lives up to his billing, he's going to shrink the
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  Speaker 4: balance sheet and only tinker interest rates on the margin.
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  Speaker 4: That could be That could be the opportunity where Main
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  Speaker 4: Street finally gets to prosper and woll Street finally has
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  Speaker 4: some come upance here because if you look at the
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  Speaker 4: total market value of equities as a percentage of of GDP,
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  Speaker 4: it's two hundred and thirty percent carry. That is unprecedented
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  Speaker 4: and untenable.
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  Speaker 2: Emerald.
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  Speaker 4: In other words, it won't last freaking very long. We're
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  Speaker 4: gonna have that ratio come back more into been too
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  Speaker 4: historical a pattern where it's more like eighty to ninety
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  Speaker 4: percent of GDP, which means the stock market has to
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  Speaker 4: crash by over fifty percent or GDPs to double. You know,
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  Speaker 4: But and stock market says where it is. Uh that
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  Speaker 4: that means that will be the first time in history
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  Speaker 4: that in an acid bubble and this extent popped innocuously.
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  Speaker 4: It's not going to happen, got it?
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  Speaker 2: So what about gold and silver?
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  Speaker 3: We saw silver hit one hundred and twenty gold, you know,
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  Speaker 3: fifty six hundred I think.
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  Speaker 2: Was the high.
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  Speaker 3: Now they've pulled back somewhat. I mean, silver has totally
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  Speaker 3: been slammed, but we the fact is we have what
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  Speaker 3: will become an acute silver shortage for industry, and if
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  Speaker 3: there's any up upward pressure on investment demand where the
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  Speaker 3: metals are.
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  Speaker 4: Well, as I said already, they're going much higher in
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  Speaker 4: the long term. They're in this secular, this cyclical period
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  Speaker 4: of decline in collins consolidation. I would like to see,
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  Speaker 4: specifically with gold, I would like to see the economy.
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  Speaker 4: I'd like to see it. I would need to see
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  Speaker 4: the economy roll over sharply and short term interest rates
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  Speaker 4: plunge before I will get even longer than I am
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  Speaker 4: with gold in the short term. But we're not here.
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  Speaker 4: We're not there right now. We're just consolidating around five
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  Speaker 4: thousand dollars an ounce. So I have no problem with that.
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  Speaker 4: You know, I'm an active manager. Sometimes I have overweighted gold, silver,
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  Speaker 4: and platinum, like I was all through twenty five, and
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  Speaker 4: there are times like this when I'm a little bit
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  Speaker 4: lighter on it because I'm an active manager. I just
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  Speaker 4: don't right now, I don't see the reason to rush
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  Speaker 4: into overexposure into these medals. I'll be up picking them
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  Speaker 4: up on cell offs and pullbacks. And one of those
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  Speaker 4: pullbacks occur, as I correctly assumed it wouldccur when worsh
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  Speaker 4: was UH nominated for Kevin wors was nominated for fed Share.
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  Speaker 4: I mean he lives. If he lives up to the building,
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  Speaker 4: he's really going to hurt UH Precious Metals, and he's
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  Speaker 4: really going to hurt Wall Street. He's going to hurt
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  Speaker 4: these these AI stocks which are which are yeah, billions
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  Speaker 4: of Kerry, hundreds of billions of dollars. This reminds me
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  Speaker 4: exactly what happened in ninety nine dot Com. Lots of leverage,
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  Speaker 4: lots of debt, over investment. Productivity isn't there right away,
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  Speaker 4: and then when they see it's not there, they stop investing,
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  Speaker 4: and these these companies that benefit from the investment collapse,
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  Speaker 4: and you have a stock market that goes down eighty
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  Speaker 4: percent in in you know, eighty three percent on the
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  Speaker 4: NASDAK in a couple of years. That's that's what we're
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  Speaker 4: setting up for. And I and carry love him on,
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  Speaker 4: the proud American, love this country, love to be loved
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  Speaker 4: the middle class. I think that's if it will be
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  Speaker 4: a healthic and cathartic reset and rebalancing away from these
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  Speaker 4: misallocations of capital. I mean, you know, the average person
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  Speaker 4: should own four homes kerry, you know, rent them out. Hey,
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  Speaker 4: what do you do for a living? I own real estate,
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  Speaker 4: you know, you know I'm flipping homes. Flipping houses. That's
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  Speaker 4: not a job. I mean, if you if you if
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: you could buy a house that's decrepit and you have
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: some skills, you know, if you're GC or if you're
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: really good, yeah, entree, you could. You can fix it
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  Speaker 4: up and maybe hold on to it for a while
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: and then rent it out or flip it. That that
• 12:45
  Speaker 4: makes sense. But just to own real estate and do
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  Speaker 4: nothing to it and think you're gonna get wealthy is ridiculous.
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  Speaker 4: You've got taxes, insurance, maintenance costs, rent, rent, the problems.
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  Speaker 4: I mean, why would you, why would anybody do that.
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  Speaker 4: But they did that because they could borrow money at
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  Speaker 4: three percent. At three percent mortgage and home prices were
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  Speaker 4: going up twenty percent. That's a pretty good trade, right,
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  Speaker 4: And I know so many This is why you had
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  Speaker 4: twenty five percent of all home purchases post COVID were
• 13:15
  Speaker 4: done by investors. That's not good for this country. That's
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  Speaker 4: why I talk about rebalancing things.
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  Speaker 3: Well, Trump's trying to put an end to that by
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  Speaker 3: banning institutional.
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  Speaker 2: You know, Blackrock type.
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  Speaker 3: Hoovering up to single family homes. I don't think that
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  Speaker 3: you can really do it legally, but he seems.
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  Speaker 4: Like carry carry you know. That's the things I'm ambivalence about.
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  Speaker 4: You know, I support so much about what he does.
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  Speaker 4: I don't agree with everything, but this is one of
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: those things like closing the border. What a wonderful What
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: an essential existential move that he made to save this country.
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  Speaker 4: And then and then also, hey, listen, home ownership should
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  Speaker 4: be first and foremo something that the middle class should
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: be able to afford, time home buyer should afford. Why
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: does Blackstone why why does Blackstone able to you know,
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  Speaker 4: hoover up you know, thousands of and investors thousands, thousands,
• 14:14
  Speaker 4: of the single family homes because because of what the
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: Fed did.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, who's Ray?
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: Who is Raimy in the Federal Reserve? You want to
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: you want to disagree with something about Trump again, You
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: want to not like the man. Why is he pushing
• 14:33
  Speaker 4: Jerome Powell to lower interest rates? Why is he looking
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: for someone to cut interest rates. We don't need interest
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: rates to be manipulated. We need interest rates to be
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: a function of Guess what. In America, it's called the
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  Speaker 4: free market.
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: Supply and demand of.
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  Speaker 4: Savings versus demand for money. And you keep the money
• 14:51
  Speaker 4: supply m zero on the monetary base, physical currency and
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: fed credit. You you fetter that growth rate to two percent
• 15:03
  Speaker 4: per annum and guess what, you have Nirvana. And when
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: banks go bankrupt, that that's it. They overextend themselves. They
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: don't have liquidity. Bye bye. It's called it's called creative destruction.
• 15:16
  Speaker 4: Where where were we are so far away from the
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: founding principles of this nation? Where Article one sections had
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: money should be silver and gold. That is money. Money
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: is not shit coin, and it is not printing fed
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: credit trillions of dollars of FED credit to shove it
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: into the banking system, to rescue banks for no reason.
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: Why are we why are we right now expanding the
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: base money supply? Oh, we might have a problem with
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: the repel market. Oh my gosh, what about main street?
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: What about the middle class?
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  Speaker 2: Carry? Yeah? What about it? As an afterthought.
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  Speaker 3: Even though they would keep the cut tree running. But yeah,
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  Speaker 3: so the AI stocks you see are just to dot
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: com two point oh or three point zero? Yeah, cloud stocks.
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  Speaker 3: But now it's this AI gold rush. But AI really
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: is having an effect on things, isn't it.
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  Speaker 4: Well, you know, the Internet was having an effect on
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  Speaker 4: things in two thousand and two. It wasn't a useless technology,
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: and neither is AI. It's very beneficial. But is the
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: productivity gains evident? Have they become manifest already that you
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: should be spending hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars
• 16:37
  Speaker 4: on on on leverage to build out these massive, you know,
• 16:42
  Speaker 4: data centers. I listen it just I've lived through the
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: late nineties. It's very reminiscent thereof So it's it's a risk.
• 16:51
  Speaker 4: I can't guarantee it. I don't. I'm not. I'm not
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: one hundred percent positive, but you you darn well better
• 16:57
  Speaker 4: be with a with a manager who's looking at you know,
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: the financial conditions and credit spreads to understand when AI
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: becomes when and if AI investment becomes a problem, or
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: when repel becomes a problem and the long end of
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: the bond market becomes a problem becomes a problem. For
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: most people, would be a great I think it'd be
• 17:17
  Speaker 4: wonderful for me because I'll just you know, run, I'll
• 17:19
  Speaker 4: run into cash and I'll short the market. But for
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: those people who are just get you know, they get whiny.
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  Speaker 4: I only may ten percent this year. You know, the
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: market is down on the year. By the way, you
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: might want to send a memo to Pam BONDI the
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: market and the Dow is below fifty thousand, the SMPS
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  Speaker 4: down is negative on the year, and people get very
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: antsy when they don't make their twenty percent return?
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  Speaker 2: Does it?
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  Speaker 4: You know, it's all about own. This is like a
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: Gordon get go, don't I don't do anything, I don't work.
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  Speaker 4: I own. Well, you know it's nice if you have,
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  Speaker 4: Like you said so succinctly. Middle class is the is
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: they They're the ones who actually make things and produce
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  Speaker 4: things and work in this country. They're not well, they're
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: not they're not funneling, you know, siphoning money off the government,
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  Speaker 4: and they're not sitting there counting their interest income every
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: every month. We need, we need a viable, healthy middle
• 18:13
  Speaker 4: class for a viable and healthy country.
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  Speaker 3: And you know that that's the rent seekers, right, that's
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: extractive industries. I mean, we've read the articles. I'm actually
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: releasing a book shortly about what seems to be a
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: minor extracted industry. But when you've gotten a parking ticket
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: for no reason because the signs are confusing, all of
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: a sudden, it becomes a major pain.
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  Speaker 2: Uh.
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  Speaker 3: But you know, we're into the extracted industries, and there's
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: no greater extractive industry Michael than the government.
• 18:51
  Speaker 4: Right. Well, you mad a great point. I'm looking forward
• 18:54
  Speaker 4: to reading your book. We talked about this in the
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: in the in the preamble to the show. You know,
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: you imagine like you know, you know, Sally Johnson pulls
• 19:03
  Speaker 4: up and she's eighty years old. She pulls up, but
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: she wants to see the sunset at the Benita Beach pier.
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: And she falls up and she says, you know, I
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: don't really have a phone on me right now, and
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: if I did, what's a QR.
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: Code, and my hand won't stop shaking long enough for
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: me to actually be able to put in.
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: The code in the phone.
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: So it's aba non compliant, and it's a host of
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: other problems due process. I've outlined it in the book.
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: It'll be dropping next week along with a federal lawsuit
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: against five municipalities in Florida, including Palm Beach, the Town
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: of Palm Beach, the City of Riviera Beach, Boca Raton,
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: Delray Beach, and Fort Lauderdale. You'll be reading about it.
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: It's going to be a lot of fun. I mean,
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: this is what lawyers do in their retirement. Michael of
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: America's top recovering at turning here.
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: I'm not all that familiar with the east coast of Florida,
• 20:12
  Speaker 4: but Riviera Beach that's a you know, a population that
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: needs help, right.
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: Well, there's the wealthy area which called Singer Island. That's
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: where they implemented this totally maronic parking regime with signs
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: and I mean, you can't even believe it. And then
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: there's the rest of rivi er Beach, which is undergoing
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: urban renewal, so they will basically throw out most of
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: the poor people in the prime areas, and they've already
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: done it. It's already happening. So yeah, well you know
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: how America works, right, I mean, this is what this
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: is what happens. So but this fascinating thing of Hey,
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: when we talk next year this time in February, you
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: think gold and silver prices will be higher than they
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: are now.
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: Like I said, I picking dates and prices is you know,
• 21:10
  Speaker 4: fool's error. But I can tell you this, once the
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: US waxes into the next recession, which by the way,
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: they haven't repealed the business cycle. Yeah they think they have,
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: but they have not. They just they just postponed it
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: and exacerbated the business cycle. So yeah, it's going to happen.
• 21:29
  Speaker 4: It's going to happen sooner rather than later. And gold
• 21:31
  Speaker 4: is going to go rip ripping higher precisely because of
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: what I said. I mean, there's just no other person,
• 21:36
  Speaker 4: no other entity on the planet that has any interest
• 21:39
  Speaker 4: in owning US Treasury debt other than the Federal Reserve,
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: especially a four percent Now, if the inflation goes back
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: to nine percent and treasuries are offering ten you'll get
• 21:49
  Speaker 4: some buyers. But what will real estate in the stock
• 21:52
  Speaker 4: market be at that moment in time. Think about that.
• 21:55
  Speaker 4: So gold is going to be a you know, goal
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: is just beginning. And plus we have sanctions and confiscations.
• 22:02
  Speaker 4: The world is moving away from storing their excess reserves
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: and their trade surpluses and dollars don't want it anymore.
• 22:13
  Speaker 4: So buy some gold and hold it. That's that's that's
• 22:17
  Speaker 4: my My advice has always been to own five percent
• 22:22
  Speaker 4: physical gold in your possession or at a place that
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: you can get it without a third party interfering with you.
• 22:29
  Speaker 4: And that's your starting point. If you're not there, then
• 22:32
  Speaker 4: you listen. I've been saying this since gold was, you know,
• 22:35
  Speaker 4: eight hundred dollars an ounce, so.
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: Yes, and now it's five thousand, so.
• 22:41
  Speaker 4: Yeah, you might have been opportunity. So but if you
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: had the five percent, you're happy you did. And then
• 22:46
  Speaker 4: I toggled the investment. I call it liquid paper gold
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: because I want I want to invest in gold the
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: price going up, but I also want to be able
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: to exit it quickly if I had to. And that's
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: toggled between zero and twenty percent, So I'll be heading
• 23:03
  Speaker 4: to more towards the twenty percent. Once they're the whites
• 23:06
  Speaker 4: of the eyes of recession. It's not just not here yet,
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: but it's coming.
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a little bit late this part of the cycle,
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: but you know there's definitely stress fractures. What do you
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: think the biggest indicators are that a recession?
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: You know, I think this whole private equity you know,
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: it's funny because Wall Street actually they actually you know,
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: it was a technical technological advance where instead of just
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: investing in a company and not knowing what the value is, well,
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: how about if there was an exchange where we can
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: have constant transparency in pricing and constant liquidity. Well that's
• 23:50
  Speaker 4: what Wall Street did, since like the button would agreement,
• 23:53
  Speaker 4: you know, and then for some reason only Wall Street
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: can spin it. Well, that wasn't good anymore. That was antiquated.
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: Let's let it's much better to have something called private
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: credit where you can invest in a company and not
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: be able to get out and not know what it's worth.
• 24:10
  Speaker 4: That was an advancement, and that's been spun as an advancement.
• 24:13
  Speaker 4: Well that that that industry didn't exists really around the
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: global financial crisis. Now it's trillions of dollars. Try to
• 24:24
  Speaker 4: because Wall Street has to come up with new shiny
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: objects to attract money, so people can make commissions and
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: sell people things like mortgage backed securities. Right now, So
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: that's the that's so so my model, the inflation deflation economics,
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: like a model, monitors the health of the private credit
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: and private equity world, which is, by the way, not
• 24:45
  Speaker 4: that good right now. Okay, it's not exactly thriving. You're
• 24:49
  Speaker 4: seeing the fissures and cracks already. Well, when that spills
• 24:53
  Speaker 4: up to a tightening of financial conditions and credit spreads
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: begin to blow out, CNBS will tell you, well, just
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: buy and hold. You can't really time the market. That's good.
• 25:03
  Speaker 4: You keep saying that because that's what people on gon
• 25:05
  Speaker 4: be selling. Joke.
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: In my book, I have a mythical character named Hunter,
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: and he drives a lime a lime green neon green Lambo,
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: and he's the securitizer. Basically, what the Hunter does is
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: he looks for cash flow streams to securitize. And he's
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: done mortgage backed securities, he's done parking revenue bonds, which.
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: We're about to blow up hopefully in this book.
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: And finally he's in Rome at the Trevy Fountain and
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: he's throwing the three coins over his shoulder, and the
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: first one he's praying for an uninterruptible, immutable, U perfect
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: cash flow stream to securitize. The next one he's praying
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: that his Neon Green Lambeau doesn't get repolled. And then
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: the third coin he throws over his shoulder. He wishes
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: that all of his wishes come true. And then he's struck.
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: He can securitize the cash flow from the Trevy fountain
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: and sell charity anticipation notes cans, and then it dawns
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: on him he can go to churches Buddhist temples and
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: securitize all that money flowing in through the collection plates
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: and the bowls.
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: And all that.
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: And that's Wall Street Hunter, the securitizer, right, He's a
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: twenty something.
• 26:52
  Speaker 4: Nav securitize private credit loans so that now they go
• 26:56
  Speaker 4: from being you know, non as parent and non liquids
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: being liquid. I think, I we just I think we
• 27:02
  Speaker 4: just came up with some Yeah.
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: Well, but also he's looking at kids allowances, uh to
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: securitize the kid's allowance and have smart contracts for chores,
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: so as they do their chores, the money is automatically paid.
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: Make it a fintech play and uh, you know allowances
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: are very are triple A rated. You know you can
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: definitely trodge.
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: Them securitizing the cash low from the tooth fairy. That
• 27:33
  Speaker 4: would be really Yeah.
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: No, there's a thoughce. Well, hey, we got us thinking
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: here how we get out of this mess? And we
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: got to we got to use every tool that's available
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: to us, Michael, anything we.
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: Can do to avoid reality.
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: Carry would be Yeah. I've been doing it my whole life,
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: and so far it's worked out okay, But after this podcast,
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: I'm not so sure anymore. Michael Pentoport dot com. How
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: do how do we invest with you? How do we
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: work with you?
• 28:04
  Speaker 4: If you're a US citizen and you want and are
• 28:06
  Speaker 4: qualified for a long short portfolio, I will directly invest
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: your money in the inflation deflation in the economic cycle model,
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: which is based on the second derivative of inflation and growth.
• 28:16
  Speaker 4: If you don't have one hundred thousand dollars and you
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: are at US this and then you can subscribe to
• 28:19
  Speaker 4: my podcast. Was a free week, four or five week
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: free trial that's only fifty dollars a year, and I'll
• 28:25
  Speaker 4: give you my salient thoughts on the economic data and
• 28:29
  Speaker 4: a very high level view of the portfolio.
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: All right, Hey, thank you so much.
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: Links in the show notes, this interview, questions, comments, kl
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: at Carrie lets dot com and we will talk with
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: you again in a month or two and see how
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: this thing shakes out.
• 28:48
  Speaker 4: Looking forward to with Kerrie.
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Carrie Let's this. Financial Survival Network
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: than ever,