Latest / Apex Insiders Podcast / F1 Miami GP 2026 | Betting Preview

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F1 Miami GP 2026 | Betting Preview · Apex Insiders Podcast

• @f1capper: All right, long, long break. Apex Insiders, ⁓ F1Capper here. I got my AI bot, Renegade. He's back. It's been what, like six weeks since we did? Darksideday: I mean that Paddock ⁓ @f1capper: We've had a lot of workings happening behind the scenes. We're doing a lot of just a lot of things trying to improve the quality of the content and how we're producing it. So I mean, we're just we're just at the tip of the iceberg of what we're trying to do. ⁓ So hopefully we'll get you something good out there. But yes, ⁓ it is it is in the workings through our Our man Renegade, he is mashing that keyboard, man. I gotta say. You are just going six weeks and were you that bored? Are you just that bored from not having it? Darksideday: I really am, I really am. And like, you know what, why don't I just create automated everything, everything, everything. One day later, I've done it, I've done it. @f1capper: Yeah, God, it's amazing though. mean, the work that's being produced right now is pretty awesome. But we still got a long way to go, so we're trying to make it better. But that is neither here nor there. Check us out on the Discord, always gonna be real time action. And we do have a Patek Pass seven day free trial if you're a new user. You'll be able to get all the tips, premium chat and everything related to the Miami, oh, auto. Darksideday: Auto-lights. @f1capper: the bots, everything. But yeah. Darksideday: of sprint weekend very likely to be pit lane start someone @f1capper: Yeah, it's gonna be tough for me. I'm not gonna be around. So I'm gonna try to get it to where I can have full attention in that last hour forever. The sprint, I would say the sprint in the race. So Miami GP, man, it just feels like forever. It's like I forgot what F1 was about. It's season starting, Miami GP. So we got a pretty big ⁓ track. downforce levels are gonna be about medium, maybe some will go a little bit higher. ⁓ You got a long straight, I don't know what the DRS is gonna be for this weekend, ⁓ still haven't figured that out. So C3, C4, C5, I believe, I don't know if that's changed, we'll have to go back and verify. ⁓ But this track, it's gonna have a big track Evo, so it's not really used, it's obviously, near the beaches and it's gonna have a lot of sand, dirt, whatever you wanna call it. So Track Evo is gonna be pretty, pretty important. As well as you're gonna get a 90 minute FP1 session given that they made these regulation changes. I will explain those in a second so everyone knows what was changed and how that's gonna impact. But yes, ⁓ this is, ⁓ I don't know, this is like a fun track sorta, maybe. I feel like at times we've gotten some good racing, but at times it's been, you know, but it's Money Man Max, it's his home race. He's probably, ⁓ wait, is today Tuesday? No, it's Wednesday, he's not racing. ⁓ Before we get into the changes, or should I, let me talk about the changes actually before I get into upgrades. So changes. Darksideday: Yeah. Where is he? Where is he? Is someone calling? @f1capper: So we had some big changes. This is basically what we're calling the reset. And this is why it's sounding more like the season really starts. It's like we had a pre-season and now we're into the season even though points were on the line. So the biggest change is they dropped the recharge limit rate from eight megajoules to seven megajoules. ⁓ And how that's gonna impact is in qualifying. ⁓ Impact in race too as well. But the whole point of it is before we had an energy management way to conserve, right? Lifting coast, you you're not going full speed, especially when it came to qualifying. This is why I'm highlighting qualifying. In qualifying, you're trying to go flat out, but you can't go flat out because you have to manage your energy throughout just to put it in the right window at the right time on the track. And the battery recovery rate was at 250 kilowatt. Now we've moved down to seven megajoules, so it is less, but the recharge rate has moved up to 350 kilowatts. So that is supposed to help reduce the amount of recharging a driver has to do throughout a lap. So that's why it's significant in qualifying is because before we're talking about like, ⁓ I'm spending more time just managing my energy trying to get a fast lap versus now they can kind of go flat out in a lot of areas because the recharge rate is going to be a lot faster. So this is why we're gonna have one of the bigger changes. So I don't know how it's gonna impact. I don't know truly how it's gonna impact, but we'll see how that works out. ⁓ For the race, mean, for the race of the year, I think it's just basically going to help when it comes to ⁓ cornering because the MGE UK now is actually getting a little bit, it drops down. Now, it kind of levels the playing field, AKA Ferrari might be kind of leveled out a little bit. I don't know. We're going to see when it comes to the turns. Because now, they had ways to conserve their energy and get through the turns faster. Now they drop that rate. So they're not going to have that same advantage like they did. They probably still will just because of their aerodynamics and the way the car just fundamentally works. But that's another just little change that they made. And then the race starts. The race starts, what they basically did is if the car is not getting off the line, now there's a little boost that kind of kicks in and it alerts and it kicks in for them to get off the line. So this is a safety issue more than anything because if you have the car not moving while everyone else behind you is moving, that's dangerous. now it's gonna help kind of boost it forward. but it's also gonna give a warning through the flashing lights to let the others know like, hey, this is kind of kicked in. So it's supposed to fix the race starts. How much of the boost does it help? I'm not sure. Plus the energy conserving when they're going out and doing their outlap and then finally getting gridded, we saw that from Kimi few times in the season. They said they fixed this weird energy bug that they had at the start where some of these drivers were kind of getting hit with. ⁓ And again, that's the boost part. that's the impacts. And that could change things. That may still keep things the same. But at least for qualifying, it's a start. It brings us there. So that was a lot. I spit out. What do you think of the rules? ⁓ I did? What did I miss? Darksideday: They've also, you missed one, you missed one. They've also disabled overtake mode in wet racing conditions. @f1capper: ⁓ I did not know that actually. I did miss that one. So there you go. This is why we have you on. You know, not Alan. And Alan is kind of useless. Darksideday: No. ⁓ and by the way, just in case you're listening to this audio, there's a picture of Alan in Miami in case you think I've really gone to Miami with the past, don't I? @f1capper: Yeah. Why aren't you swimming in the fake water? Darksideday: Hehehehehe @f1capper: ⁓ Alan, you know what? At this point, I never want him to leave. All right. I mean, yeah, he's doing an OK job. I'd give him an OK job. OK, so upgrades. This is upgrade season. All the teams have been waiting to push for today or this weekend to start. Darksideday: Who would do the community bit otherwise? But anyway. @f1capper: Implementing their upgrades. This is another reason why we're saying this is a recess like now the regular season is starting ⁓ So right now Mercedes doesn't have a whole lot that they're bringing so they already Feel like they are the car is is in a good spot right now. So they're gonna continue to learn They want to just fine-tune some of the arrow. That's it, you know, just try to keep balance consistency across multiple tracks ⁓ There could be a risk, you know, they show up with nothing and everyone brings just massive upgrades and the gap closes But they seem very confident in what they have and as they should be Ferrari is bringing a new energy and exhaust Efficiency, I don't know what that means what that actually supposed to do but they are bringing a new floor front wing. They're gonna try a version two of their Macarena. So they're bringing a lot that they're gonna be testing. So they get 90 minutes, which is gonna be good for them. they're hoping that this will just continue to close that gap with Mercedes ⁓ as it relates to qualifying, race pace, everything. So the race pace is not that bad, but they got McLaren now knocking on the door after their performance ⁓ at Japan. Darksideday: And I feel like all we've heard about recently is McLaren McLaren this weekend, they seem to be very bullish on their upgrades. @f1capper: Yep. Yeah, they seem very confident, but you never know, right? Like if they don't get something right with the, cause they're bringing a floor and wing. So I know the floor is not as dependent, but it's still gonna make a big difference. So we'll see what happens. ⁓ Red Bull, this is the big one. They're bringing just about everything. It's like, it's supposed to be a version two of their car, basically new side pots, floor, wings, engine cover. trying to reduce the weight down. They're down now to like being six kilograms overweight at this point. So they're basically bringing everything. Now that seems cool, except that's also a big risk. Because if you start changing everything and one thing doesn't work right, you start tweaking something else to try to compensate. And it just goes back and forth. If something doesn't work right, they are in the shitter. when I... Darksideday: And I've seen Mechies say that they don't expect with these upgrades to even be with the front pack. Yeah. @f1capper: They, it seems like they're throwing a Hail Mary right now. They're throwing a Hail Mary because they know if they can't, they know, they admitted that the car is just not fundamentally there. There are, there's things inherently wrong and it's just not talking in so many ways. The balance is off. I mean, reliability issues and you know, their tire dag issues. So there's just so many things wrong with this. So they're kind of throwing a Hail Mary. So, but you know, you never know. Maybe they get it right and they come out and we'll see that. We'll see that in the odds. And then McLaren, they're bringing a new aero, new suspension, new nose. They're also trying to work on their PU deficit because as you know, they have some issues with that at this point. But they are confident in what they have in terms of a package to work on, to be competitive in the season. We just don't know if it's gonna be. this weekend or if it's gonna still take some time before we start really seeing them challenge Mercedes for wins. So we'll see what happens. I'm not gonna go through the full list. I do wanna point out one last one is Williams. They're talking about bringing a major weight reduction. So if that were to happen and they can get their balance right and less weight, then they can really start competing for P10, you know? competing with the Haas, competing sometimes with the Alpine, right? So they're gonna see what they can do there. Darksideday: And they were majorly, majorly with that person who took the picture of the leaked weight. So like 20 kilograms overweight. @f1capper: Yeah, I mean it was significant. So I don't know how much of a reduction they're gonna have, but they're trying to aim to see can they get one second off a lap just based on just a weight reduction. That should tell you how bad their weight is right now. Obviously that's one second is arbitrary, but that's what they're trying to shoot for. All right, so we talked a lot. All right, I talked a lot. Now let's get into some odds. Let's dive right into it. we have a sprint weekend, we do have FP odds. The one thing I don't, okay, number one, I don't have any bets. I'm gonna ⁓ maybe make one to however many while we're talking. But my approach this weekend is I honestly want to see cars on track before I make any decisions. So maybe have some fun with practice. I don't know if I want to chalk things in practice, especially with 90 minutes. I don't know what their run plans are going to be. When are they going to put on the softs? Are they going to do it twice? Maybe? I don't know. So like we, we ha I don't know with the sprint weekend, less tire allocation. What are they planning to do? If I had to guess, most people are going to probably, and I don't know which, but most are probably going to do the, the hards. They're gonna stick with the set of hards to start with, then do their run on the softs after they get optimized for the first 30 minutes, let's say. And then they'll come right off of the softs, put the hards back on, and just keep running on the hards. Because you're gonna need to save your mediums for sprint qualifying. You're gonna need to probably save a set for ⁓ sprint race, and then you're gonna need one. Darksideday: Yeah. @f1capper: for the race itself. and you get. Darksideday: I guess there is an increase in tire allocation is there for the 90 minutes. @f1capper: Did they increase it because of the 30 minutes? ⁓ Darksideday: Yeah, I don't think, I mean did know that I'm asking, I don't think so. @f1capper: ⁓ I don't think so. I didn't see anything, but normally they, what are they allowed for sprint weekends? 11? I think it's total of 11. Darksideday: So they probably wouldn't be pushing too much further than they usually would fast lap wise. @f1capper: It would make sense to do the hards just because you can, if you have 90 minutes, that's where you can really learn about your race pace is through, you know, first 20 minutes, try to get it optimized in the first, what, 10 laps, and then take them off, go onto softs, learn a little bit on that. Maybe they go back on softs on that same pair, learn some more from that with higher fuel, and then they'll jump on. the rest with the hards. So you're only using two sets just for that 90 minute session, but we'll see. ⁓ I'm sure we'll see some, a mix. No one knows what the run plans are gonna be. So, all right. Let me actually get to screen sharing. Let's do this. Alright. Can we see? Darksideday: bit zoomed in, zoom in a bit more @f1capper: Zoom in. Darksideday: No. @f1capper: Okay... Darksideday: Like 60 % more. Yeah, there we go. More now. Yeah. @f1capper: There we go. All right. Let's go to practice. Darksideday: Should we do match bits first? @f1capper: Yeah, let's get him. You know a way to my heart. All right. Too much. This is too much. Too much. Too much. Darksideday: basically just bet every underdog a ring. @f1capper: I think you could get away with the plus 120 album on here if you really wanted to force something. Definitely no. I mean, yeah. Darksideday: I like that Kimmy over Russell. Plus 162. @f1capper: Where is this, where is this? Yeah, I do like that as well. mean, Kimmy was not bad. mean, free practice last year, he was like eighth. He was like, yeah, he got, or did he get pole? One or the other, got. One or the other, he got. then. Darksideday: He got sprint polled didn't he last year? We do all our research here beforehand, of course. Let me see. @f1capper: Tiastry over Norse. Coin flip. Darksideday: So we got P1 in a Mercedes, which was a very good last year in sprint qualifying, Kimmy Antonelli. And he got P3 in normal qualifying and ahead of George Russell. Maybe something there. @f1capper: Okay, maybe. I think at plus 163 or 2.63, it definitely is, or 6.2, definitely worth it. Yeah, I mean, I wouldn't chalk to a lot, like Lando Norris, Piazzari, Arlene Piazzari, it's a coin flip though. You probably could, if you could find a minus 115, you can go for it. Same with the Perez Boatoss. I know we've been on the whole. Darksideday: I so. @f1capper: bowtoss and free practice so I don't know if, Jen's Christian do that? He did it? Yeah, this one maybe I'll probably. Darksideday: Yeah, so should I get the stats up? Let me get the stats. A6-1 against Perez this season in practice sessions. Yeah. @f1capper: He's six and one, wow. Wow. ⁓ we're not doing IndyCar. We're not doing IndyCar. So we will have to, let me see what is on. Team head-to-head Yeah, that's a good line It's a good line This is plus one theory that plus 162 then that's a good line. I'm bet 365. I'd probably flirt with that that that plus 162 Kimmy over Russell and then both are yeah both also for Perez. ⁓ Let's let's see what I'll go I'm kidding distracted here. Let's see what the non-teammate head-to-heads free practice we got. Man, Norris is minus 165 to Hamilton. Oof, oof. I maybe could get down on Leclerc over Piastri. Darksideday: Good luck day. @f1capper: Maybe I gotta look back and see what his performance is at Miami. Is LeClaire a top three merchant even though we've had three straight FP sprints at Miami before they changed the format? I can't remember. Maybe, because we're, yeah. Darksideday: Last year it was P2 in qualifying. And PSG was P1. @f1capper: Yeah, that's what's tough. So I don't know. Yeah, yeah. Max Verstappen, I just don't, honestly, I don't want anything to do with Max until I see him in FP. Like what is he saying about the car? Let's see, Isaac over Hulk would not chalk that. I still even wouldn't bet Hulk. think, you never know. That's not a good line. Darksideday: own practice year, everyone. @f1capper: see Lawson over Behrman. No, I would take Behrman maybe, but he didn't do too hot last year here. He was pretty horrid, but I think it's different car. Gastly over a hundred. Like some of these, gun to head. I will just tell you gun to head, which ones I would take. Darksideday: No, no opinion on that one. I always like the donkey ones, Alonzo Vos Potas. I feel like Alonzo is a play maybe. I mean their one lap is okay, they can't do much more than one lap. @f1capper: But Alonso did okay. He did okay the last race. yeah, that's what scares me. I won't touch it. Gun to head. Ooh, I kinda do like this one though. This Carlos signs over Colapinto. ⁓ Gabe over Lynn Blad. Darksideday: Yeah, I was just about to say that. @f1capper: ⁓ I would take this is gun to head. Ocon over Gabe. I don't know. don't know why I'm kind of hesitant about Audi this weekend, but I am. I shouldn't be, but whatever. ⁓ Bearman over Lawson. take ghastly yeah I'll take ghastly over a jar just because Darksideday: I Kimi, I like the Kimi one the best out of all of them. @f1capper: I think so too, man. This one is a good one. This one was a good one. This Kimmy over George plus 162, free practice one. Take the bow toss over Perez. Let's stop noodling on it. Let's see top three. Darksideday: Let me see what the price is on Camby, because it could be that's just a massive outline, 365. If so, take it now. Let's see. So practice, match ups. @f1capper: It is, right? Caesar have any? Let's see. Darksideday: Yeah, can be have it at plus 145, which I still like at that price. @f1capper: down. This is, that's really good, dude. That's a really good one. Practice margin I was interested in. Darksideday: Which one? @f1capper: I was thinking over on this one. I was thinking about it. Actually, maybe it is the under. am I thinking? Because if you have two Mercedes that are pretty dominant and really close to each other. Darksideday: Why's that? So it's either the 90 minute session and everyone needs to do their laps properly, which either means Mercedes are that far still ahead and one of them maybe can get a full lap in or they're much closer so it's point one and they all get a representative time. @f1capper: Yeah, I just don't know what they're gonna do. Darksideday: or in between take that one I feel like just take take whichever I don't know we have no idea @f1capper: I think if you're gonna do it, you do one of these two. I think if you're gonna do it, you could Dutch it if you wanted to, out some money, but I don't know, with the over two, it's kinda risky. Pick one of these two. kind of leaning, I'm kind of leaning that it could be, I don't know, one of those two. I'll continue to noodle on that one. And then, yeah, I'm not interested in these, in these top threes. There's just, it's a dart. Darksideday: No, they're not even. @f1capper: Especially if you have these two guys go one two, which is not is really not gonna happen If I had to I'd take Leclerc top three, but might as well. Yeah it is What is Darksideday: is a bit short I think. Even Piastry is a bit short. Lando Norris has been nowhere all season. @f1capper: Yeah, what? Darksideday: You know, what was PSD over Lando? Because I feel like maybe that's a bit because Lando has been absolutely @f1capper: It was minus 125 and I was thinking about taking that for practice. Piestri over Norris. Should we just? Darksideday: bit shorter I'd feel like maybe minus 120. @f1capper: Let me see because I did see it. Yeah, it's the same price here. Hmm hmm hmm hmm I might do it I Might do it Watch him wreck and fucker little fucker might wreck. ⁓ that's right. I'm trying not to curse on pod No my god All right, let's let's ⁓ You can get leclerc plus 175 on MGM for top three not bad Darksideday: I so. We've been demonetized. @f1capper: Let me just do one last. Yeah. Darksideday: ⁓ look, ⁓ wait, go back to MGM for a minute. There was no top three no's or anything. like go to the top again on the right hand side? @f1capper: Hmm. too much. Darksideday: ⁓ The rubbish prices for Mercedes, aren't they? @f1capper: Yeah. If it was plus or if it was two to one, which you don't rarely see that with that, maybe I would do that. Let's see what the top 10 is actually. Wow, they have Pierre Gasly at plus 125 for top 10 here. If you wanted to take a chance on that. They really do value the V-Carbs this weekend and Gabe. Darksideday: Has he been doing well in... I'm not an FP1 guy but has he been doing well in gasoline pre-practice? @f1capper: ⁓ Let's see. Darksideday: What do mean looking at your phone? You can't be, you gotta know. @f1capper: Well, Gastly. I'm looking through grid rival because they put the stats on there. ⁓ they don't have practice yet. Darksideday: Alright, I've got it out, I've got it out. So Japan, was 14. China, he was... He was P14 again in Australia, which was a bit of a nonsense. FP1 he was P17. So he hasn't been hired. Yeah. @f1capper: ⁓ so he was bad. He's been bad. Maybe I should just fade him on grid rival then. Darksideday: Maybe, look at the Williams though. The massive prices for top 10. Are we just getting on this train too early? I don't know. @f1capper: I think so, but like if there's a chance to take chances on... Darksideday: but even still. plus 500 for a second of faster Williams potentially. @f1capper: I don't think it will be a second faster, but I am intrigued, because they seemed okay, I guess, in Japan. Darksideday: Yeah. Like if it's only the weight and everything else is near enough, fine. It should be a simple enough sort of exercise. @f1capper: Yeah, if you want to throw it, go for it. Four to one, three and a half to one. ⁓ I did want to see winners without. See, because like, this is what's funny is they have Pierre Gasly as a winner without as the shortest odds, but MGM has top 10 plus 125. Like, he's probably the donkey at this point. Someone's a donkey here with this pricing. Darksideday: Definitely not Gasly. Based on what we just saying. ⁓ and why is Aston Martin in there? @f1capper: Hmm. Don't know. Don't know. Darksideday: I don't know. So if we don't think it's, it's, sorry, if we don't think it's the Williams and we don't think it's the Cadillacs, I mean, you could probably pick two from that market. Yeah, and not Gasly. @f1capper: They're still doing that. I don't care for them. I mean, baremen. from this one. So you could pick Gabe and Hulk, because Gabe is 10 to one. Darksideday: Yeah. @f1capper: 650 Hope that V carb is shit, but they've actually shown up in practices at times But you do get bare minute four to one he was terrible here last year, but it's four to one Yeah, I mean It's I feel like Gabe is is definitely you could take a chance for sure You could do the winning car if you really wanted to just Darksideday: Definitely Gabe and someone else. @f1capper: have both outies but I'd say just pick one. Okay and then let's see Darksideday: I think you could do Alpine and Haas winning cars and it'd like minus 130 if you touched it something like that. sorry, Alpine and Audi. @f1capper: Alpine and Haas. So you do like. 75 and this would be like Darksideday: Let me get my matching calculator. So 3.2 and 5. yeah, it's like minus 105. You do like 60 on the smaller odds one and 40 on the other one. @f1capper: Yeah. Could do that. Yeah. And you just gotta hope that Hoss or Red Bull doesn't do it. All right, let's go, let's move on. Sprint shootout. Darksideday: Yeah, it's not too bad, yeah. Napshot, sprint qualifying. @f1capper: go to bet365 though. I like to start with them. Let's go to qualifying. So do we want to do fastest qualifier or do we want to just look at top three, Darksideday: Yeah let's just do top three six. I don't like anything there to be honest. Or the top three market. @f1capper: Jesus. It's 1600. Oh God. While everyone else is like plus odds. That's so funny. Darksideday: think over the years Mr. 365 has got very angry with us just taking advantage and everything's rubbish. @f1capper: ⁓ it's totally, totally dead. go to let's see the top six. Darksideday: That is terrible. I wouldn't even take Max for snapping at plus 100 and then minus 1600 is the next out of the best teams. That's... No. I mean, he's top six, but still. @f1capper: No. I mean, at this point, throw a dart on. Bearman, Lawson. All right, Bearman, Gabe. Darksideday: You scrolled a bit far down then, I saw you at Perez and Bottes. @f1capper: Yeah, I wanna see what they were. Yeah, of these, Bareman 20 to one isn't too bad. He's not gonna get it, but 20 to one, it's pretty nice. Throw a little sprinkle on it. could get there with that. Okay, what else do we have for sprint qualifying? Let's see, drivers to reach Q3 because that has the best odds. Yeah, you could take Barerman plus 175. See, they- they- these guys really like... Audi this weekend. Darksideday: And I think Aldi have been saying then they have an engine deficit as well. they're not sort of, I don't see why. @f1capper: That's why I'm nervous about them because they have a new director now. They've talked about their engine being like, there's some things that are gonna take some time for us to learn from this thing. Even though when it does work, it looks good, but I don't know if I wanna take the odds on this now. So here's my advice is if you are bullish and you wanna take that chance, then you have a lot of opportunity to take on... free practice odds with ⁓ MGM and we just saw here and winners without odds you can take, ⁓ that's sprint shootout. You can do the practice, can do sprint shootout, you better be taking those odds now for outing. Team props, this is for race. ⁓ Darksideday: What are the team props on DraftKings? ⁓ of stuff. OK, OK, let's go back to. @f1capper: I'm just gonna wait until Ferrari drops down to, you know, minus 130. And then I'm gonna take it for double top six. Okay, yeah. Bearman, don't mind it at plus 175. Don't care for these at that price. Man, they have Lindblad at plus 137. Who is betting on 365? They have Lindblad at plus 137. This is crazy. What's this matchup? we have matchups here? No we don't. He doesn't even have... He didn't post them. Darksideday: I don't I definitely post them. @f1capper: Sprint race, let's see what the top three is. It's the same shit. Oscar Piazzar is even though, wow. Darksideday: If there was a no for Lando Norris anywhere, I think I'd take that. @f1capper: probably on Cal-She eventually I had Cal-She message me today asking what markets you want them like, know, I was like sprint and sprint qualifying, race qualifying, give me all top six, three, 10 markets, give us teammates, non teammates. I mean, I'm just like a broken record telling them every time. Give it to me, give it to us. ⁓ Darksideday: I love that. @f1capper: Okay, I think that we're seeing the trend here with anything related with... Darksideday: Let's see classified then for sprint. @f1capper: Yeah, let's go to some props. classified last finisher. Darksideday: Well that's interesting but I wouldn't touch any of that. @f1capper: Maybe one of the... Darksideday: So for the sprint Cadillac's a plus 275 I mean yeah @f1capper: or DNFs. I feel like you gotta wait on this one. Darksideday: Yeah, but it'd be a DNF, it'd have to be a DNF. Need the last lap. @f1capper: If someone's gonna pit lane, someone is going to pit lane in the sprint. Someone's going to get knocked out, they gonna be mad, I don't know what happened to the car. They're gonna be like P14 and they're gonna say, you know what, doesn't. Darksideday: It'd have to be like what Alex Albin did that bottom race. Was it last race where he just pitted about 20 times? @f1capper: Yeah. Yeah, like this is the time. We're not going to get points. Let's go learn about the car during the sprint race so we can optimize for qualifying and the race. That's what they're going to do. So I think for classified for sprint, that's what you want to wait for. Don't take anything now. Darksideday: What about total classified with a sprint? that minus 138 over. You can get one DNF. @f1capper: This is... I like, I kinda like the over. Not at even money though. I know. Darksideday: If all the reliability rubbish has gone, maybe it has, then that's good price. Because we used to get that like maybe plus 160 for no DNFs, no unclassified drivers, you know, in a sprint. So it's nearly okay, I think. I think I'll play that. Yeah. And you get one DNF. @f1capper: Yeah. The over. Yeah, I would check on Aston Martin, make sure they're not going to do anything, but they've tried to finish the last race. They should be finishing races by now. You've had. Darksideday: Yeah, they finished the last race and one, I think someone DNF cause of water thing or something, but one of them finished. @f1capper: Yeah. Darksideday: And it's only a spring. @f1capper: Alright, I got something fun for us. The laundry list of race magic. Yes, sir. Okay. Darksideday: ⁓ my god. Was that for the sprint? @f1capper: No, that's not for sprint. That's for the race. Darksideday: ⁓ this is for the race, okay. @f1capper: This was the one I've been eyeing. Darksideday: Why? Why are you as bad as Ferrari fans? What are you done to deserve that? With Ferrari dying upgrades? @f1capper: I mean, it's just I mean, we're so bearish on Norris. I don't know. Just it just seems I feel like they're they're inflating McLaren just off. Piazzari's went like top three. Darksideday: vibes. @f1capper: Like, what are we doing here? Darksideday: Yeah, I mean, I get it for piastry. I mean, I'd prefer to take that piastry over a little arrow, I think. @f1capper: You think so? God. I'm gonna wait. Darksideday: I think so. But you're a big little air fan, who knew? @f1capper: Yeah Number one fan, you know number one fan since he got married. I've been so in love with him No, I don't know I just Call it vibes too for me, right? Like my vibes are it's not that I'm bearish on McLaren, but It's not like Ferrari's been a slouch. They've been doing fine every race Darksideday: Number one thing. You No. @f1capper: And we've seen a number of times McLaren had these crawling issues with their car, not saying that's gonna happen again, but I'm just, it's just all these compounding things that have happened to McLaren this season, why wouldn't I? Maybe it's too soon to take it, but I just imagine if Norris has another weekend where it's just like, what are you doing? That line and McLaren just getting the top four, top five. He's gonna be priced at like minus 175. I mean it is soon. I also am thinking about taking this because I don't know how much I'll be around this weekend. Darksideday: grown up is let's see what else is there @f1capper: This is the teammates and then it just starts here with LeClaire through down to Colapinto. Darksideday: Okay. I don't see anything particularly that I like unless you're, you want to take a position that you're bearish or strong on Williams. @f1capper: now. Well, I said I wanted to wait also to see who else is posting odds. I didn't see any on MGM for the race. Yeah, now they do. Let's see. Hamilton see these plus 120 to him yeah they don't have LeClaire over Over Norris, I would expect it would be kind of the same. Maybe it would be... I could see them doing minus 125 Lando and then minus 110 Leclerc, just to screw you. Okay, What else? Let's see what their specials are on BetOnline. Let's see. No, there's nothing good. Nothing good. Darksideday: Have you been using Bookmaker this year? Do I still do the head to head? @f1capper: Yeah, have. Yeah, they do. A lot of them are gonna be the same as bet online, but there's, yeah, there was. Darksideday: Yeah. Sometimes you get a wacky one, you're like, how do they put them together? @f1capper: Oh, there was one time that I read through Light's EV bets and then I jumped on Bookmaker and I seemed to get on there at the right time and they're very dynamic on how they change. And for some reason they had put the odds for like Gabe versus I think it was like Lawson or something where it should have been like Lawson minus 165, Gabe is like plus 135 or something. and they put it at plus like 375 or something crazy. And I was like, what is this right? I took it anyways, knowing like, Hey, yeah, this probably not going to win, but it's three to one. Like he, made a mistake and they made, then I looked down and they kept making mistakes with others. It's like, Hajar was like a four to one to a driver that was near him as well. And I was trying to take that before they locked everything and they mess up. they tend to mess up. There's something with their dynamic changing of of the pricing sometimes can get out of whack. ⁓ Sprint. There you go. You can take a Mercedes at minus 800. Yes. Darksideday: Where's Harba you need him? @f1capper: He would so be, that's a Hal-Bet for sure. Yeah, there's not really much. There's not much I care for. Darksideday: Sprint Top 8, let's have a look at that. @f1capper: Yeah, actually kind of like this. Darksideday: What's the step from firstly I can't see him. @f1capper: He's minus 1000, yeah. Darksideday: And that's terrible for us. @f1capper: Hmm. Darksideday: And Max has been terrible getting off the line. I don't know, there's like some drivers who can't get this off the line thing going and Max is one of them, surprisingly. @f1capper: favorite. Am I not seeing Barrowman on here? ⁓ he's right here, two to one. Darksideday: No, nothing really stands out, right? @f1capper: Yeah, I'm not too crazy about it. I'd rather wait. I'd rather wait. All right, I mean, don't have much. What else? Are we missing something else? I don't know. Darksideday: Let me have a look. First driver to retire in the race has been solved now. @f1capper: other words. For the race? Let's see qualifying drivers to reach Q3. ⁓ is that Sprint? No, that was Qual. That was Q3 Qual. ⁓ it is. Darksideday: let's do the sprint I think See the top? Yeah, I think the mix out. So it's going to be somewhere there. @f1capper: That's it, they don't have anything. Let me just fancy this. T-asteries 18 to 1. out of here. Yeah, these are... I don't care for it. Don't care. Don't care. Darksideday: qualify money margin now. @f1capper: I would take the under. I think I might take the under though. I'm gonna... Darksideday: And there we go, there's two down, first driver to retire. Back up to the left. There we go. I thought it was interesting because One they nerfed as in the wrong way, that's the Martin, plus 600 plus 700 so they think they're getting a bit more reliable. But I still think maybe taking two other drivers, something like that. @f1capper: I Audi. engine. ⁓ Darksideday: I haven't hit one yet, but I feel like I want to hit one. @f1capper: That's not a way to start this. I haven't hit one yet, but... Darksideday: I've only seen it being one way, so I've tried it. @f1capper: I mean, it's such a crap shoot and these odds like. Darksideday: You what, don't think it's worth it. Let me have a look at the odds I was getting before, because either I'm misremembering. @f1capper: Yeah, that's just what saying. This doesn't look like I'm getting much value out of gig. Darksideday: Yeah, yeah, to be fair, right, China Grand Prix, you could get any Audi driver to retire first at the same price that Hulkenberg is, so they're about double the prices. No, no, no, let's leave it, let's leave it. @f1capper: Yeah, that's so we're talking about it should be like Yeah, that should be like 40 to 1 each driver or something. Well... Let me just see this. ⁓ yeah. I don't know. Darksideday: And one thing that we haven't talked about is that although it's Miami and probably not when it comes to race day, there is high chance of rain in the race. But who knows, yeah. People liked it. I streamed so many on Monday, tweets going, oh, 90 % of rain. And then by the time we get there, it's like that. It's fine. It's fine. @f1capper: Yeah, this is Florida. It's Florida. It's Florida. It rains when you don't realize it and it doesn't rain when they say expect because it you're you're in the ocean. You're basically getting all sorts of crazy weather. So unless the only way to truly know is waking up that morning and actually seeing is it just overcast and is that overcast playing to say over through the entire entire day so I'm not gonna... push the rain narrative and plus, but yes, you should, that should be a risk though, because that's on the flip side. You could be at the sprint and you could be, we saw that last year with the sprint, I think, or the race where it did rain and then they had to come off of enters, go onto the soft. So it can happen. That is definitely possible, but you just don't know. You're just gonna have to take your chance. Darksideday: Ciao. @f1capper: Alright, well, then let's get to grid rival. Darksideday: Oh yeah, I had to note to my mum, I placed the dabble one the other day, that one, for the race. No, not yet, for the previous race. I forgot about that. Let me see if they've got a market up, but go on, you go on. @f1capper: Oh, let's hear it. Let's hear it. Oh, oh, for the previous. Oh, you're in. So you're in, aren't you? You love you. You like the pick them. So I did do one. I kind of liked it. Yeah, I did this sprint qualifying. This is going to be weird. Max Verstappen better seven and a half, though. Darksideday: I've got it, I've got it, but carry on. @f1capper: So I'm just hoping he doesn't really shit the bed. Darksideday: Okay, dabble's got it at seven, but yeah, carry on. @f1capper: Yeah, that's exactly why I was like, ⁓ I think we're in that territory. If he lands on seven, we're good. Alonzo worse than 17 and a half. But I kind of want to do another one if he's still there at 17 and a half. Let me see. No, he's at 18 and a half. See, I just took value on that. I took value on that. Darksideday: Okay, okay. @f1capper: See, this is the difference is grid rival expects Hulk and Gabe to be in that 12 and a half, 13 and a half position. Ocon. Yeah, and then they have the racing bulls at 11 and a half, 12 and a half, Ocon at 12 and a half, Baerman and Gastly are nine and a half, 10 and a half, Hajar are nine and a half. See, this is the difference between grid rival and the books that we were seeing through most of the weekend. So. ⁓ But I am focused only on sprint qualifying. Lando, I think it's five and a half, let me see. Darksideday: What number have you got for Lando Norris? @f1capper: Yeah, ⁓ sprint qualifying is four and a half. Darksideday: Really, dabble's got three and a half. @f1capper: I would take worse. Darksideday: Yeah. @f1capper: take worse on that. Darksideday: And then they've got the Claire 4.5, Hamilton 5.5. @f1capper: take better. I would do better. I would correlate those two Leclerc and Norris. Norris worse with Leclerc better because I like Leclerc at four and a half because he could still stick it at four and he'd be fine. We know he has a competitive car. Underdog had him for the race at four and a half and I was like you got to take him at four and a half. But here on sprint qualifying, that's sprint qualifying right? Darksideday: Yeah. Yeah. I so. @f1capper: that you're talking about? Yeah. Here for grid rifle they have LeClaire 3.5 and Norris 4.5. So that should be your sign. You should just do it. Don't even think about it. Darksideday: So my first four range pick-hums were my only choices dabble and I realised they don't really care. So I think I had qualifying last time and that was it. So I may only have sprint qualifying to do anything. Unless I send the emails in like, ⁓ where is it, where is it, @f1capper: Yeah. Yeah, I'm down to grid rival and price picks now because I've officially limited. Darksideday: You've taken all their money. You've taken all their money. @f1capper: Underdog said, we're done with you. So. Darksideday: Oh, I thought that was a good rival. @f1capper: Well, Grid Rival, was able to say, can you just please raise it a little bit? just do me a solace. Not like I'm... Yeah, exactly. was like, it's not like I'm really taking your money. I've been kind of static on Grid Rival with Indy Card too. been, you know, it's just like I have all these right combos or all these right picks, but the combos are just wrong. Darksideday: ⁓ no. Give me a little. Hashtag, hashtag, hashtag sign up to good vibe. @f1capper: I just need to get the combos, I need to lock in and get the combos right with grid rival. But they're the sharpest, so it's who I like to benchmark. But prize picks were still alive for now. Which they just announced ⁓ their partnership with IndyCar, which is why we were seeing IndyCar lines last week and I was like, yeah, we hit big on IndyCar last week, or last race. ⁓ And we plan to hit it again. Darksideday: That's good for you. @f1capper: Planted again. Okay. Well then let's cook something Let's cook something. So you kind of got an idea of what sprint qualifying is I Won't touch sprint race until the qualifying match is set up Darksideday: Okay let's do sprint qualifying. Yeah let's do a sprint qualifying one. Because then I can do it. What have you got? See Gatsley, I swear, like all his other aces, he just looks terrible and then in qualifying, although it's sprint qualifying, he's just out of nowhere, PA or whatever. @f1capper: Okay, let's... What do have for Ghastly on Dabble? Yeah, it's the same here. What is Bearman? Darksideday: 9.25 10.5. @f1capper: See, do they like racing bulls on your app? What do they have? Darksideday: So they got 11.5 Lin Black and 12.5 Lawson. @f1capper: Wow, they have it flipped. We ha I got 12 and a half, Lynn, Vlad Lawson, Ocon is 12 and a half. Darksideday: What have you got for a cone? Nothing less, or worse. I think so. @f1capper: We should do worse, okay? Let's go worse on that. What do we think of the outies? What do we think of the outies? One of them has to be the one that does better or worse in that spot. Or both do worse. Darksideday: And then... So I've got a Hulk 12.5. I think maybe worse, I think. @f1capper: Me too. Darksideday: better? I think so. @f1capper: I so. I've been kind of, feel like I'm qualifying I've been on the wrong side of Hulk every time. Darksideday: Alright, what have you got for, I was thinking, I've got car last signs at 16.5. @f1capper: I think that the 16 and a half is a good play. think I picked, so I do have a price pick play. Hold on, let me pull it up. And it is, that was the first, oh, it's the sprint though. I have him better at 16 and a half for the sprint. So technically you would hope that he's gonna be P16. Yeah. Darksideday: Yeah, I think I like that better than 16 and a half. @f1capper: And then I took it with LeClaire better than four and a half. ⁓ Darksideday: So for me, I'm going to go Ocon Worst 12.5 and Sines Better 16.5. @f1capper: Damn, I wish I had 16 and half, I would do that. Yeah. Okay, okay. I don't wanna do signs because he's 15 and a half for me, but you should do 16 and a half. Do I pair it with... Do I do it with Linblad because he's 12 and a half? Darksideday: Overall, better or worse. @f1capper: See, here's the thing. If I did better Lin-Blad 12 1 1 2, worse Okon 12 1 1 2, then that means one of the outies is gonna be out. If I do think Lin-Blad is better. If I think Lawson is worse, then that means 11 1 1 or Lin-Blad is worse at 11 1 1 then that means Hulk or Gabe are gonna be better. Unless it's just like signs in Williams really find something then that's the winner out of the whole thing. Darksideday: Or you're just overthinking doing the combos and you just do better than a player at 4.5. Have you got any 4.5? @f1capper: No, I have him three and a half, unfortunately. Yeah, he's four. Darksideday: What about PS2? Now I'm going to touch that. @f1capper: Mm-mm. I don't want that. Okay, we're gonna make it, we're gonna make a decision. You liked Hulk to begin with. We're not steering away from your gut, so we're gonna do that one. Darksideday: Yeah. @f1capper: call this the pod play. The pod play, wait, oops. and it's working. There go. And it gives me, they're giving me a 20 % boost, but this better hit. It's in. Darksideday: I've also shared my one on Twitter and you can click to it. You can get the bit slip up on Dabble if you click for it through Twitter. So if you like that one, go ahead. @f1capper: ⁓ he's here. I will have to get it and put it in here. All right, well, I feel like we've done a lot of nothing technically. I know we didn't really do a whole lot of bets, but. Darksideday: This is like reset, reset. don't even... And 2027 will be the same because everyone's fed up with these engines. Well, the electric in the end. @f1capper: Yeah. Well, I hope they take this year and learn from this year and say, at least let's try to go in and mitigate the damages done in this regulations and say, how do we just get it in the spot where we're only tweaking as we go? Darksideday: No. It would have to be something like you just really increase the recharge rate and then lower the capacity of the batteries. @f1capper: Yeah. Yeah, so hopefully they figure this out for next year. ⁓ Who knows? Who knows what happens? all right, well, I'm not gonna be around this weekend. You and Alan take care of the fort. I'll still be engaged. I just don't know how much I'll be engaged. ⁓ I'm gonna try to be around for like the hours leading into ⁓ the session. I don't think I'm gonna be around for the sprint qualifying session actually. ⁓ Sprint race, I'm going to try my best and then we'll see what happens for qualifying in the race. Darksideday: Alright troops, see you later. @f1capper: All right, see ya.