Latest / Upper Hand Fantasy / 2026 Week 9 Trades: 6 Buys and 4 Sells Before Thursday Night Football
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_00: Another week down, another week closer to the fantasy trade deadline.
- 0:03SPEAKER_00: Some guys are riding touchdowns their usage can't back up.
- 0:05SPEAKER_00: Some guys are coming out of their buy with a schedule you're gonna want a piece of, and some guys are about to lose the backfield they've had all to themselves.
- 0:12SPEAKER_00: I went through the target share, the snap share, expected fantasy points, rest of season schedules, all of it.
- 0:17SPEAKER_00: And I've got buys and sells for you.
- 0:19SPEAKER_00: So that's what we're doing today.
- 0:20SPEAKER_00: Buys and sells, let's get right into it.
- 0:22SPEAKER_00: Let's start with buying Cornell Tate.
- 0:24SPEAKER_00: If you want to make a deal for Tate, the timing couldn't be better.
- 0:26SPEAKER_00: He missed week eight, the Titans are on by in week nine, and he's going into the bye injured.
- 0:31SPEAKER_00: So that's two weeks without him in anybody's lineup, and that's exactly when managers can get impatient.
- 0:35SPEAKER_00: But look at the role when he's out there.
- 0:36SPEAKER_00: 27% target share, 44% air yard share, those are wide receiver one numbers.
- 0:41SPEAKER_00: He's underperformed a bit because the offense hasn't held up its end.
- 0:44SPEAKER_00: Through the first five games, the Titans were dead last in points scored and points per drive.
- 0:48SPEAKER_00: But over the last three games, they're second in the NFL in both.
- 0:52SPEAKER_00: And the schedule coming out of the bye is as good as it gets.
- 0:54SPEAKER_00: Jacksonville, Dallas, Jacksonville again, Washington, and Detroit.
- 0:57SPEAKER_00: All five are top 12 matchups in points per game allowed to receivers, and four of them are top seven.
- 1:02SPEAKER_00: On top of that, a lot of these are good offenses, which means a potential shootout or more reasons for Tennessee to throw.
- 1:07SPEAKER_00: He's expected back after the bye.
- 1:09SPEAKER_00: I would go get him now while he's sitting on the shelf.
- 1:11SPEAKER_00: I would also go and buy Chase Brown if you need a running back.
- 1:14SPEAKER_00: He's getting over 70% of the team's carries, and he's one of the most involved backs in the passing game.
- 1:18SPEAKER_00: Second in routes run and fourth in target share among qualifying running backs this season.
- 1:23SPEAKER_00: The only problem is that the production just hasn't matched.
- 1:25SPEAKER_00: No running back is falling further short of his expected fantasy points per game than Chase Brown this year.
- 1:30SPEAKER_00: The good news is that the Bengals offense is firing on all cylinders, and the Bengals have a top eight rest of the season schedule for running backs.
- 1:36SPEAKER_00: And the craziest part about it all is that we've seen this exact same production arc with Chase Brown in each of the last two seasons.
- 1:42SPEAKER_00: In 2024, Chase Brown was the RB24 in points per game through week eight.
- 1:46SPEAKER_00: From week nine on, he was the RB5.
- 1:48SPEAKER_00: In 2025, last year, he was the RB30 through week eight, and RB4 the rest of the way.
- 1:53SPEAKER_00: His managers are probably feeling like Brown has left a lot of meat on the bone so far this season.
- 1:56SPEAKER_00: And with a role as good as the one he has on an offense as good as the one he's on, I would buy.
- 2:02SPEAKER_00: I'm also buying Ramondre Stevenson.
- 2:03SPEAKER_00: Trevion Henderson missed last week, but even when he's been active, he hasn't been pushing Stevenson for work.
- 2:08SPEAKER_00: They don't really want him on the field as much.
- 2:10SPEAKER_00: Henderson's at a 33% snap share and a 35% carry share this season, which is hardly anything, especially when Stevenson is the one running most of the routes.
- 2:18SPEAKER_00: He's the one getting the third down and two-minute work.
- 2:21SPEAKER_00: That's a good role.
- 2:21SPEAKER_00: And he's the primary goal line guy, too.
- 2:23SPEAKER_00: He has all three of those running back goal line carries for New England this year.
- 2:26SPEAKER_00: Only three.
- 2:27SPEAKER_00: Crazy.
- 2:27SPEAKER_00: Drake may have four of his own, but when they're handing the ball off at the goal line, it's been Stevenson's number they're calling, not anybody else's.
- 2:33SPEAKER_00: And look at the offense around him.
- 2:34SPEAKER_00: Over the last five games, with May playing much better football, the Patriots are first in points, yards per play, and points per drive.
- 2:40SPEAKER_00: Stevenson has four top 24 finishes over that stretch, and three of them were top 15.
- 2:45SPEAKER_00: He's not going to cost you much because he's just not viewed as one of those premium assets at the position.
- 2:50SPEAKER_00: So I would buy him while he's still priced like a guy in a committee.
- 2:53SPEAKER_00: I'm also buying Jonah Coleman.
- 2:54SPEAKER_00: Now, let's be clear about Coleman.
- 2:56SPEAKER_00: There's definitely some risk here.
- 2:56SPEAKER_00: The Broncos are apparently in the market for a running back ahead of the trade deadline, and it doesn't sound like they want to add just another depth guy.
- 3:02SPEAKER_00: They could make a big swing for a player like Jonathan Taylor or maybe Brees Hall.
- 3:06SPEAKER_00: And if they go get one of those guys, it's game over for Coleman's fantasy value as it sits right now, which is very, very high.
- 3:12SPEAKER_00: With RJ Harvey out, Coleman played a near workhorse role last week in just his fourth NFL game.
- 3:17SPEAKER_00: He had the early downs, he had the goal line role, he was very involved in the receiving game, and he did it against the Chiefs, which is a pretty tough matchup.
- 3:23SPEAKER_00: This week he gets the Panthers, which is a great matchup.
- 3:26SPEAKER_00: And Denver has the fifth best rest of season schedule for running backs.
- 3:29SPEAKER_00: So if you're gonna buy, now is the time.
- 3:31SPEAKER_00: His price is as low as it'll be all season if the Broncos don't add anyone.
- 3:35SPEAKER_00: If he goes nuclear though in a good matchup against the Panthers, no one's gonna want to give him away.
- 3:38SPEAKER_00: He needs to be in position to stomach some of the risk if you go and buy Coleman.
- 3:42SPEAKER_00: The upside is obvious, but so is the downside if Denver adds another running back.
- 3:45SPEAKER_00: But there's no denying the impact Coleman could have the rest of the way.
- 3:48SPEAKER_00: If they ultimately don't add a running back before the trade deadline, he could be a league winner.
- 3:52SPEAKER_00: Speaking of league winners, I'm buying DJ Moore.
- 3:55SPEAKER_00: He's been banged up all year with that shoulder injury.
- 3:57SPEAKER_00: It seems like he might have had a little knee hyperextension late in the game last week against the Ravens when he shouldn't have been on the field.
- 4:02SPEAKER_00: He said that he'll be fine after the game.
- 4:04SPEAKER_00: I think he'll be all right moving forward.
- 4:05SPEAKER_00: He was walking around fine, but who knows, right?
- 4:07SPEAKER_00: That thing could swell up.
- 4:08SPEAKER_00: I have no idea, but it seems like he'll be okay.
- 4:10SPEAKER_00: You can leverage that uncertainty about his status this week to go get him relatively cheap because when he's been on the field, he's been balling.
- 4:16SPEAKER_00: In the three games where he's been healthy for the majority of the game, Moore is averaging 17 points per game, 27% target share, 83 yards per game.
- 4:24SPEAKER_00: That's wide receiver one utilization and production from Josh Allen.
- 4:28SPEAKER_00: The schedule the rest of the way isn't amazing, but with that kind of role, you're starting him regardless of the matchup.
- 4:32SPEAKER_00: So I'm using the injury as like my bargaining chip here.
- 4:35SPEAKER_00: He's been a wide receiver one start when he's healthy, and he could have a huge second half of the year if he can stay off the injury report.
- 4:41SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna buy Ladd McConkey, but this one's for the teams that are losing and don't have a lot to give up, right?
- 4:46SPEAKER_00: You're looking at your roster, like, how can I even trade any of these guys?
- 4:49SPEAKER_00: These guys all suck.
- 4:50SPEAKER_00: We know what kind of player Lad McConkey is, and he has been banged up, and the Chargers offense has been terrible this year, right?
- 4:56SPEAKER_00: There hasn't been much to like, and that's exactly why he's easy to get.
- 4:58SPEAKER_00: Whoever drafted him early has watched him do nothing most of the season, they're probably fine letting him go.
- 5:03SPEAKER_00: But if you split out the games where he was actually on the field and when he was, you know, running routes, like he was actually pretty good and pretty efficient.
- 5:08SPEAKER_00: When McConkey plays more than half of the snaps, he's averaging 12 fantasy points per game, 17% target share.
- 5:13SPEAKER_00: And you're given the state of the offense, that's fine.
- 5:15SPEAKER_00: Um, but his season numbers look worse because the games that he barely played in, right?
- 5:19SPEAKER_00: And last week he was back to a full-time role.
- 5:21SPEAKER_00: He's healthy for now.
- 5:22SPEAKER_00: So if you need upside, you don't have that much to offer, and you're okay like taking the risk on someone like McConkie on a terrible offense.
- 5:28SPEAKER_00: I think he is somebody that you can get for cheap for the potential upside that he is maybe a rest of season wide receiver too.
- 5:33SPEAKER_00: That is still in the range of outcomes for a talent like him.
- 5:36SPEAKER_00: Now, next up, I'm looking to sell Derrick Henry.
- 5:38SPEAKER_00: If you have Henry, you got lucky, he punched in a touchdown, you know, while Tyler Huntley was still in the game without it.
- 5:43SPEAKER_00: His last three box scores would be unsellable.
- 5:46SPEAKER_00: Over the first five games, Henry averaged 95 yards a game, scored seven touchdowns.
- 5:50SPEAKER_00: Over these last three games, he's at 52 yards a game with one touchdown.
- 5:53SPEAKER_00: And now the Ravens literally don't have a starting quarterback.
- 5:55SPEAKER_00: Lamar Jackson went straight to IR after one play coming back after injury last week, and Tyler Huntley's dealing with turf toe.
- 6:01SPEAKER_00: Henry also isn't involved in the passing game.
- 6:03SPEAKER_00: That's Justice Hill's job.
- 6:04SPEAKER_00: So without a real quarterback, it's hard to see Baltimore playing in the kind of game scripts that give Henry the carries that he needs.
- 6:10SPEAKER_00: You add in a tough playoff schedule and a buy in week 13, and I'm out.
- 6:13SPEAKER_00: His name still gets treated like an RB2 at worst, so I'm selling him while I can.
- 6:17SPEAKER_00: I'm also selling Saquon Barkley.
- 6:18SPEAKER_00: He has two top 24 finishes in two games since coming back from injury.
- 6:22SPEAKER_00: He's played just 24% of the snaps in those two games.
- 6:24SPEAKER_00: He's averaging just 12 touches.
- 6:26SPEAKER_00: He's not involved in the passing game at all.
- 6:27SPEAKER_00: And I don't even know if he's ever gonna play a workhorse role this season, because why would they, right?
- 6:31SPEAKER_00: He's gonna be tough to trust.
- 6:32SPEAKER_00: On an offense that is as bad as Philly's right now, since Tanner McKees took over, the Eagles are dead last in yards per play, dead last in explosive play rate.
- 6:39SPEAKER_00: They punt at the highest rate in the league.
- 6:41SPEAKER_00: It just doesn't get easier from here either.
- 6:43SPEAKER_00: His buy is still coming up in week 10, so you're not gonna even have him.
- 6:46SPEAKER_00: And his playoff schedule, Seahawks, Texans, and 49ers, those are tough defenses and games where Philly will probably be playing from behind.
- 6:53SPEAKER_00: So I'm using these like solid last two finishes that he's had on the game log to move him for a running back you can actually count on the rest of the way.
- 7:00SPEAKER_00: I'm also selling Tony Pollard, obviously, different running back when he has the backfield all to himself.
- 7:05SPEAKER_00: You know, in the three games where Tajay Spears played fewer than 15 snaps, Pollard's averaging 24 fantasy points and 107 rushing yards per game, with Spears on the field and playing nine fantasy points and 54 rushing yards per game.
- 7:16SPEAKER_00: And the timing kind of works against you if you hold him because the Titans are on a bye this week, so you can't even use him.
- 7:20SPEAKER_00: And Spears could very well be back when they take the field again in week 10.
- 7:24SPEAKER_00: Yes, the Titans offense has been better lately, uh, but I don't want to bet on a running back who needs the backfield to himself to keep this going.
- 7:29SPEAKER_00: And also, these points are extremely elevated over these last two games, right?
- 7:33SPEAKER_00: Five touchdowns.
- 7:34SPEAKER_00: Like he's not gonna be scoring multiple touchdowns every single game.
- 7:36SPEAKER_00: So I think his value is as high as it's gonna get this season.
- 7:39SPEAKER_00: Can he be usable moving forward?
- 7:40SPEAKER_00: Sure.
- 7:41SPEAKER_00: But if you can turn him into a high-end RB2, fringe RB1 by adding a little bit onto him, I'm making that trade today.
- 7:47SPEAKER_00: If you have Demario Douglas sitting on your bench, I'm looking to sell him because the game log is looking pretty good, right?
- 7:52SPEAKER_00: Douglas has three top 15 finishes in his last four games, and he scored four touchdowns in that span after having none in the first four games of the season.
- 8:00SPEAKER_00: The problem is that over the last four games, he's fifth among qualifying receivers in fantasy points per game over expectation.
- 8:05SPEAKER_00: He's been relying pretty heavily on touchdowns in that span, and even on this hot streak, he's at just a 19% target share.
- 8:12SPEAKER_00: So that's a number that lines up with like wide receiver three production, you know, not the kind of like wide receiver two production that he's been seeing.
- 8:19SPEAKER_00: Uh, and I don't think he's gonna be a rest of the season wide receiver three either, because he's not getting enough volume to do that.
- 8:24SPEAKER_00: So it might just get tougher.
- 8:25SPEAKER_00: Obviously, Drake May is playing really well.
- 8:26SPEAKER_00: AJ Brown's gonna come back at some point.
- 8:28SPEAKER_00: Um, I think Brown is by far May's favorite target when he's on the field.
- 8:32SPEAKER_00: So I would sell the shiny game log if possible.
- 8:34SPEAKER_00: Obviously, a one for one might be tough, but he might be a really good cherry on top to go get a better receiver if you combine him with one of your better players.
- 8:41SPEAKER_00: So, you know, go get a receiver with a clear every week role.
- 8:44SPEAKER_00: That's gonna be it for this episode.
- 8:45SPEAKER_00: If this helped you, make sure to subscribe to the channel or the podcast, wherever you're listening.
- 8:48SPEAKER_00: It helps a ton.
- 8:49SPEAKER_00: It's the best way to catch these every week.
- 8:51SPEAKER_00: I'll see you in the next episode this week.
- 8:52SPEAKER_00: Starts and sets for week nine.