Latest / Prestons Super Show / NFL Week 4 Preview and Picks-Super News #70

Transcript

NFL Week 4 Preview and Picks-Super News #70 · Prestons Super Show

0:12
Get ready for the political sensation with super host and
0:16
news breaker, Preston Olsen. Ladies and gentlemen, ladies and
0:22
gentlemen, welcome to Preston Super Show.
0:27
This is the 70th installment of the Super News and I really
0:33
thank you for being here. There are over 500 episodes of
0:38
Preston Super Show. Listen wherever you like.
0:43
First game of Thursday Night Football kicks off at 7:15 PM
0:49
Central Time on Prime Video. The Seattle Seahawks are two and
0:56
one, and they are on the road to face their division NFC West
1:03
rival. The Arizona Cardinals were also
1:07
two and one, the Seahawks coming to this game as the -1 1/2
1:15
favorite at the spread. Total set at 40. 3 1/2 points
1:22
and the money line underdog are the Arizona Cardinals at +105.
1:30
That is where I'm leading you to right away.
1:35
Injury report, very important. But it's important to note the
1:40
injuries that are officially out.
1:43
First. Zay Jones, wide receiver, will
1:46
not play in this game for the Arizona Cardinals.
1:50
James Conner, the running back for the Arizona Cardinals, is
1:53
still on IR. They have Will Hernandez, the
1:58
guard on the offensive line. Questionable.
2:02
With a knee ACL, since it's defined, usually it's a little
2:09
bit more of. He's going to be.
2:13
Out Paris Johnson, the offensive tackle?
2:17
Questionable. Hakeem Davis?
2:20
Gaither, his elbow banged up. He's questionable.
2:26
When we're talking about the Seattle Seahawks, we are
2:28
discussing A-Team that's caught a little bit of steam and they
2:32
are looking to do some damage in this game.
2:37
I feel like they have something in them.
2:41
They have a little bit in that locker room, some mojo working
2:45
here, A lot of questionables on the defense, Leonard Williams,
2:51
defensive end Devon Witherspoon, cornerback Julian Love, and Nick
2:58
Eamonwari all questionable. Then let's look at the tight end
3:03
here, Elijah Ario. He is questionable.
3:07
So we have right there 5 important players questionable
3:11
for the Seahawks team. So no matter what, like many
3:15
teams, they enter this game pretty banged up.
3:20
But did you see what they did in their last two games?
3:26
Against the Pittsburgh Steelers 2 weeks ago, they won 31 to 17.
3:31
That's against Aaron Rodgers at full strength.
3:34
I know he's getting acclimated with the offense, but you've
3:36
seen them beat the New England Patriots.
3:39
It looked fine. They're going to get better.
3:43
Now you have the New Orleans Saints.
3:44
The Seahawks beat them 44 to 13. So with the.
3:48
Pitcher that I'm painting is that the Seahawks are coming
3:52
into this game looking to do damage.
3:56
You have Kenneth Walker at running back.
3:59
Kenneth Walker, the third is one of my favorite running backs in
4:02
the NFL. He's got 39 carriers, 3
4:03
touchdowns, 163 yards. That's important because I'm
4:09
looking at the over 43 1/2 points.
4:14
I love that spot. I think we crushed the over.
4:19
Sam Darnold has a nice game. He's already got 663 passing
4:22
yards this season, and there is a lot of reason to be excited
4:27
with Sam Darnold at the quarterback position for the
4:30
Seahawks #1 he's not afraid to tuck the ball and run.
4:35
He has quite a few weapons to either hand the ball off to or
4:39
throw the ball to. And the Cardinals defense is not
4:44
really that bad. It's just a matter of them being
4:47
a little bit banged up and then their offense not being great.
4:52
Forcing that defense on the field so much is going to cost
4:55
them this game. I know Arizona plays pretty good
4:59
at home. They got one home win.
5:02
But the Seahawks in their one Rd. win, their one Rd. game got
5:05
the win. So I'd like the Seahawks to win
5:08
here. I think they control the pace of
5:11
this game. We get the over and the Seahawks
5:16
cover the -1 1/2 spread. Next up we have the Minnesota
5:22
Vikings on the road to face the Pittsburgh Steelers.
5:26
The Vikings are two and one. The Steelers are also two and
5:29
one and will host the Vikings in this game.
5:34
Total set at 40 1/2. Minnesota Vikings are the -2 1/2
5:38
favorites on the spread and on the money line, the Vikings are
5:42
the -140 favorites. But I have to be looking at the
5:47
Pittsburgh Steelers In this game.
5:49
We have Aaron Rodgers, who's getting things going with his
5:53
Pittsburgh Steelers offense. They have the running back Jalen
5:59
Warren for the Steelers, leading the team in rushing, leading the
6:02
team in receiving. So where this gets interesting
6:05
is JJ McCarthy being out and then wanting to insert Carson
6:11
Wentz into this offense that works in a home game against the
6:16
team who also has a backup quarterback and has no rhythm
6:20
and a defense that is just on the field the whole game.
6:24
Yeah, that works. But you're playing the
6:26
Pittsburgh Steelers. They are built better.
6:29
Not only that, this is an 8:30 AM game in Dublin, meaning the
6:36
Vikings, running with a backup quarterback on a short week, are
6:42
going to Dublin to play the Steelers against Aaron Rodgers
6:47
and is one time he's ever going to get to play here.
6:50
Yeah, let's be real, Aaron Rodgers.
6:53
Is going to. Light this defense up this week
6:56
is the best scenario for Aaron Rodgers right now. 8:30 AM kick
7:01
off and it is going to be lit Sunday morning Dublin, Ireland
7:07
at Crock Park. This is going to be a hit.
7:10
I like the over 40 1/2. I feel like these teams are
7:16
going to see some points. I also like the Steelers to
7:21
cover plus 2 1/2. But my best bet for this game
7:25
plus 120. Pittsburgh Steelers money line.
7:28
Let's cut the malarkey. We could talk all day about
7:32
who's got the best receiver, the Vikings, dude, Justin Jefferson.
7:37
But let's be real, you have a backup quarterback and Carson
7:42
Wentz who's been passed around this league and is now here with
7:47
a team that we don't really believe in, the Vikings.
7:51
I don't know who believes in the Vikings besides their fans.
7:54
So I'm going to go ahead and say the Steelers win.
7:56
That make it very simple for everybody.
7:59
Money line. I do believe it goes over.
8:01
I think that's a good bet as well.
8:03
And then the Steelers by default cover plus 2 1/2, which that's
8:06
also a nice place to be. But that is not even in my mind
8:13
because I do believe the Steelers just outright win.
8:15
It should not be easy for the Pittsburgh Steelers to win, but
8:20
if it is easy, I am even more right.
8:24
This next game takes a little bit of a weird turn.
8:27
We have the Washington Commanders first.
8:29
The Atlanta Falcons noon kick off on Sunday.
8:32
Commanders are two and one. Falcons are one and two.
8:36
Total set at 44 1/2. The Commanders are the -1 1/2
8:40
favorites at the spread and the -125 favorites on the money
8:44
line. Giving you the favorites right
8:47
now. I'm going to switch to underdogs
8:48
in a minute here. Now, I agree that they are about
8:54
the -1 1/2 favorite at the spread.
8:58
I agree that they will win this game.
8:59
I think Vegas has that right total that 44 1/2 probably an
9:05
under. I wouldn't bet an over.
9:08
I could at least tell you that much as far as who's going to
9:12
quarterback this game. Will you have Phoenix Junior,
9:14
who we suspect will, but I'm not impressed.
9:18
I'm actually very let down that he has all of that talent on
9:22
offense and he's not even remotely close to being ready.
9:26
I mean, we thought he was ready last year, right?
9:28
He showed us some things and showed some signs of brilliance.
9:31
And he comes in this year just he's playing like a doofus.
9:34
He's just playing like a doofus. They got beat 30 to nothing by
9:38
one of the worst teams in NFL history, the Carolina Panthers.
9:42
That team right there, they have, that's one of the worst
9:44
teams in history and they got beat by them.
9:46
It's pretty pathetic. I mean, 30 to nothing.
9:50
I expect a coach to be fired. If you're getting beat 30 to
9:54
nothing against a team that's done nothing for the last 1020
9:57
years, I mean nothing. So we could look at the
10:01
Commander's offense and see that Marcus Mariota is going to be
10:04
quarterback, which I'm like on the fence with.
10:07
I don't think he's a great quarterback.
10:08
I think at one point he was a good quarterback.
10:11
Now I think he's just an average quarterback to fill in their
10:15
running back, Krosky, he is very banged up, might play, might
10:20
not. And then their leading receiver,
10:23
Terry Mclaurin, 10 catches, 149 yards, He's questionable as
10:27
well. Where the Commanders kind of win
10:31
me over in this game is defense setting up short yardage for the
10:37
offense so that it's easier for them to cash in.
10:40
I think they're cashing in with field goals.
10:43
I think it's a low scoring game. Like I said, under is probably
10:46
the place to be there, but that's not any fun at all.
10:50
Who wakes up wanting to play in under?
10:53
I mean, that's just weird. The commanders -125 yeah, that's
10:58
my best bet. I like the commanders in this
11:00
game -1 1/2 on the spread is come, you know, down from -3
11:05
1/2. So I believe that, you know, in
11:07
all reality, it's just looking like the Falcons may have a
11:12
little something in this game. But we haven't seen it, folks.
11:16
We we haven't seen what these Falcons have.
11:19
They are not running the ball well.
11:21
They're not passing the ball well.
11:23
Their defenses beat up been. Treaded on for the last three
11:28
weeks. I just don't see it this week
11:31
when a team doesn't score any points.
11:35
It's like a slap in the face to the coach.
11:38
It's like they're not playing for the coach.
11:40
They don't care what the coach is saying or does or really, I
11:44
think they want the coach gone. It I mean, Atlanta's body
11:47
language tells me they want a new coach.
11:51
You know, people are like, yeah, throwing Kirk Cousins.
11:54
And I'm like, yeah, but I mean, we've all seen that story and
11:58
how that story ends. They're trying to create a news
12:00
story. It's just not having a very good
12:02
beginning. The Commanders started off the
12:07
year 21 to 6 to beat the Giants. They ran it to the Packers.
12:09
But the Packers at home were just fired up, ready to win.
12:13
Then they played the Raiders this past weekend and beat the
12:15
Raiders 41 and 24. I mean, let's be real, The
12:18
Commanders are not a bad team. They are not a great team, but
12:22
they are a team that I believe will win this week.
12:25
And I believe they defeat the Atlanta Falcons.
12:28
Atlanta Falcons being at home doesn't help them anymore.
12:31
I'm not with the team they have on the field.
12:34
Next up, we got the New Orleans Saints versus the Buffalo Bills.
12:39
Total set at 47 1/2. These Saints are the plus 15 1/2
12:45
point underdogs at the spread. That total up at 47 1/2 is
12:50
probably attainable and the plus 900 underdog New Orleans Saints,
12:56
1% of people are picking them. I don't see a good day for the
13:02
Saints here. I see them coming to town, head
13:06
in the sand and leaving town. They've looked awful.
13:11
Kind of disturbing that they call themselves a pro team.
13:15
You got beat by the Seahawks 44 to 13.
13:17
Never looked like at any point you were in that game.
13:20
What is going on? I mean, you were just in that
13:23
game against San Francisco. You were in the game against
13:26
Arizona. But that game against the
13:28
Seahawks shows me a nasty trend that you guys went from
13:32
competing to fleeting. So no, the Saints will get
13:36
crushed. If you feel like a lucky guy,
13:40
plus 15 1/2 is a good spot for you.
13:43
I do not think they come close of covering that.
13:46
I think it's a blowout. Literally.
13:48
I think it's a 40 to nothing, 40 to 6 type of game.
13:53
It probably goes under. The over is attainable.
13:57
It's attainable, but I think it goes under.
13:59
I'm not going to play that. I actually think the Bills just
14:02
cover that spread. That's the best bet -15 1/2 for
14:06
the Buffalo Bills and -110 odds It grew one point from the open.
14:11
It was at 14 1/2. Now it's -15 1/2.
14:14
I mean, it's not looking good. That's like a sign of a team
14:20
being fatigued on the road and getting ready to get some bad
14:24
news about a couple guys probably sitting out for this
14:26
game. Which either way, I mean, if
14:29
they were at full health, full strength, the Saints team is
14:33
still not 15 1/2 points better then the Buffalo Bills.
14:39
They're not. There's no way they can kind of
14:41
muster up that in this game. They're just beat.
14:44
They're they're beat before the game starts.
14:45
Sad to say, but this is that game.
14:48
Josh Allen is playing like a madman.
14:51
And when a guy's playing like that, he may have a bad series.
14:57
He hasn't thrown any interceptions because he will
15:00
still talk the ball and run. He's working on becoming the MVP
15:03
this season, which I think he's the front runner right now.
15:07
I think Josh Allen's the front runner for MVP and this Bill's
15:11
team looks good. They look good everywhere you
15:14
look. They look good running the ball.
15:16
James Cook having a great season.
15:19
Their top receiver, Keon Coleman, I'd like to see him be
15:23
a little bit more physical down the line.
15:28
He seems to kind of give up on the route a little bit early.
15:30
He needs to be a little bit more physical.
15:33
Josh Allen can find guys if they just keep running the route.
15:37
Other than that, I'm impressed with the Bills.
15:40
Very, very impressed. I give them so many flowers for
15:44
what they've accomplished so far. 3 and O2 and O at home and
15:48
they get another home game. The only downside to the Bills
15:52
right now is that they're getting very comfortable.
15:56
They're not being challenged. They're not having a real
15:59
legitimate challenge in their face.
16:01
Not their fault, not their fault, but they have not
16:05
seriously been challenged since Week 1.
16:10
Might not be a good thing for the Bills.
16:13
You know, it's like a team that feels like they've won the Super
16:16
Bowl, but it's Week 4. You know, it's and it's like
16:20
that's a dangerous mentality. So I think they're a humble
16:24
group. I think this will be a humbling
16:28
experience for the Saints. Bills win, cover the spread.
16:32
One player to look out for in that Bills game, the tight end
16:36
Dalton Kincaid. He had a breakout game in that
16:42
last contest against Miami. Against that New Orleans Saints
16:46
defense that's already getting thinned out, he will rise above.
16:52
Next up we have the Cleveland Browns versus the Detroit Lions.
16:57
Total set at 44 1/2. The Detroit Lions are the -9 1/2
17:02
favorites on the spread. The -600 money line favorites.
17:08
Which leaves the Cleveland Browns at the plus 400 money
17:11
line underdogs. But is it worth it?
17:15
Let's talk about it. We know the Browns are coming
17:18
off a very feel good win, but so are the Lions.
17:22
Let's not be confused, the Lions are rolling.
17:25
They have both of their running backs contributing.
17:28
David Montgomery and Jameer Gibbs, both of whom are really
17:34
taking off as we start to progress through this season.
17:39
The Vermont St. Brown 20 catches, 4 touchdowns,
17:42
237 yards. Receding.
17:44
This Lions team on offense is a well oiled machine right now
17:50
going up against a Browns defense that was on the field
17:52
for a long time against the Packers.
17:55
Not only that, not only were they on the field for a long
17:58
time, and no point in that game did the Browns lead the Packers
18:02
until. There were zero.
18:04
Seconds on the clock and the field goal had gone through for
18:07
them to win. So the Browns won when they have
18:11
because they are one and two. The lines are two and one came
18:15
in the most freakish and almost disgusting way for the Packers
18:19
collapsing in that game. Let's just go back a week before
18:23
that where the Browns were demolished 41 to 17.
18:26
By who, you asked? By the Baltimore Ravens, the
18:29
team the Detroit Lions just gave a smack down to.
18:34
And before that, the Browns couldn't get past the Cincinnati
18:39
Bengals. Are you kidding me?
18:42
The 17 and 16 final score for the Browns couldn't even beat
18:46
these Bengals who didn't look good that whole game.
18:49
The way the Browns celebrated that win was like their whole
18:54
season depended on it, right? That was like their whole season
18:57
depended on it. What I like about the Browns is
18:59
the running back Quinn Shawn Judkins.
19:02
He did not give up in that game. 28 carries, 1 touchdown and 155
19:07
yards on the season. But in that game, he was the
19:12
reason they really were able to get down the field, get some
19:15
points and have a rushing attack against the Packers, who have
19:21
been pretty good at shutting everybody down so far.
19:25
Joe Flacco, 2 touchdowns for interception, 77 for 126 passing
19:29
attempts, and he has 631 yards passing.
19:33
The big deal here is that the people Joe Flacco are throwing
19:39
to are not really getting open for him.
19:42
So in essence, you have the Cleveland Browns versus the
19:47
Detroit Lions. Big game, you have to play the
19:50
team that's in front of you. But the Browns on the road after
19:53
that type of win are dusting for a let down.
19:57
I like the total to go over 44 1/2.
20:00
I like the Lions to cover the -9 1/2 spread and they will win on
20:06
the money line -600 not a lot of meat on the bone there.
20:09
But I'm going to give you a little tip.
20:10
Give you a little tip here. I do believe it goes over
20:13
because of the Detroit Lions really pushing the pace of this
20:16
game. But also, their defense is not
20:19
as good as they were last year. However, they're better than
20:24
they were the first week of this year.
20:26
Next up, we have the Carolina Panthers versus the New England
20:29
Patriots. This is a game that could go
20:31
either way. Panthers are one and two hitting
20:33
the road. Patriots are one and two at
20:36
home. They have not won at home.
20:38
They're a little bit cursed in their own stadium here.
20:40
Total set at 42 1/2. Panthers are the plus 5 1/2
20:45
underdogs on the spread. I like that right away.
20:48
And then plus 190 underdogs on the money line.
20:51
I don't know about that because I do think the Patriots looked
20:56
decent against the Steelers. Their problem was redzone
21:00
turnover. That redzone turnover, it just
21:04
can't happen. Drake may just has to be better
21:07
in this game for them to do anything.
21:09
I mean, they were competing against the Steelers, and the
21:13
Steelers were about even with them as far as talent goes.
21:18
But in this game, the Panthers found a little bit of rhythm.
21:24
You know, they beat the Falcons really good, 30 to nothing.
21:28
But it was more of just the Falcons that kind of gave up.
21:30
Stop fighting. But I give the Panthers credit
21:32
because they kept them down. You have to take this with a
21:35
grain of salt. You're looking at two teams who
21:38
are equal in my eyes. I think the Patriots may have a
21:43
little bit of a better defense that kind of helps me position
21:48
myself to pick them to win at -225 on the money line, which is
21:53
very interesting to me because it seems pretty heavily
21:56
favorited for a team that's not really shown.
22:00
They're dominant, you know? So I like to spread the plus 5
22:03
1/2 it's moved to for the Patriots.
22:05
It opened at plus 4 1/2. You know what, let that move a
22:10
little bit more to the Panthers because I'm not impressed with
22:13
the Panthers. But if you're looking to go with
22:15
the teaser ticket and you need a team who already has a good
22:20
number of points, you want to add another seven points maybe.
22:25
You know, you're looking to put together three leg mantis, four
22:27
leg mantis, Whatever you're going for in your teaser ticket,
22:30
I call it a mantis, like a praying mantis.
22:33
You're trying to put together that three leg mantis.
22:35
You're looking at +5 and 1/2 in it.
22:38
Throwing that in the mix. I mean, that's worth it.
22:41
Now some people say what about the total?
22:43
Well, at first I liked the over, but the more you look at this
22:47
game, it just doesn't make sense for this to go over.
22:49
It makes sense for this to go under and it's not before even
22:54
looking at where it opened, right?
22:56
It opened at 44 1/2 and it dropped the 42 1/2.
22:59
Based on what I've discussed, this is an under game.
23:02
So that makes sense that the totals drop down.
23:04
If you got it at under 44 1/2, that was awesome.
23:09
But it but like now where it's moved to on Thursday, while I
23:15
would wait to take that live, see what happens in the first
23:18
quarter. And if it goes up close to 49
23:22
1/2, well, that's going to increase your chances.
23:26
And then you can come in and slam the under and then you're
23:29
feeling good because you knew it opened at 44 1/2.
23:31
Now it's a 49 1/2. But it's still really hard for
23:34
them to get that many points, right.
23:36
It's still hard for them to get 50 points.
23:37
So you're feeling good even if they hit 49 points, you cover,
23:41
you're good. It's under 49 1/2.
23:45
So that's where I would be looking.
23:47
But I do think under 42 1/2 happens.
23:49
I do if I had to just pick one way under 42 1/2 money line
23:53
because I like to be decisive. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.
23:56
But I like to be decisive because it shows good character.
24:01
It's good energy as well -225 that's that's a good spot.
24:06
But yes, I'm going to say the Patriots win.
24:10
Panthers cover that spread. If it grows more, I love it.
24:14
To grow more than under 42 1/2. I'm not impressed with Bryce
24:19
Young. We'll just have to be honest.
24:21
They got a banged up running back in trouble.
24:22
Hubbard, who has not got off this year.
24:25
The Patriots, you know, they're struggling to run the ball.
24:27
They, they don't have a offensive line that's built to
24:31
run. They have an offensive line
24:32
that's built to pass protect. And that's what we've seen.
24:35
That's why they're tied in. Hunter Henry's leading the team
24:37
165 yards receiving, 13 catches, 2 touchdowns.
24:41
He's a good big anytime touchdown.
24:45
I mean, he's somewhere in this game finds himself with a red
24:50
zone touchdown. But the Panthers are banged up,
24:53
man. They're they're already coming
24:54
in this game with a running back who's beat up.
24:56
Now they're going up to Foxborough.
24:57
But the defense is really tough. That's a tough Patriots defense.
25:02
And then Tetra, Okola McMillan, their number one receiver,
25:05
You've never heard of this guy, 14 catches, 216 yards receiving.
25:09
He doesn't even have a touchdown.
25:10
So the Panthers are really using like a a myriad of players to
25:17
try to get this offense going, and it just looks ugly.
25:21
But it worked against the Falcons because the Falcons are
25:23
uglier. They're playing style is uglier.
25:26
That's the bottom line. It really is.
25:27
So I'm going to go with the Patriots to win under 42 1/2 and
25:34
plus 5 1/2. The Panthers cover that spread.
25:38
That's within the realm in the scope of how I see this game
25:42
playing out. If it was a little bit shorter,
25:46
like plus 2 1/2, I would be thinking something is going on
25:51
with maybe another big player on that defense of the Patriots not
25:55
being in. But based on what we see on this
25:58
injury report, they're going to have who they need on that
26:03
defense. And if they have who they need
26:04
on that defense, well, I see why 56.1% of ESP NS matchup
26:10
predictor favors the Patriots. So yes, we like the Patriots
26:13
this weekend. We have quite a few games to go,
26:16
so let's pick it up. Here we have the Los Angeles
26:18
Chargers versus the New York Giants.
26:20
Don't got to spend much time on this one unless you really love
26:23
the Giants. Los Angeles Chargers are three
26:25
and O the Giants have not won a game, folks.
26:28
Total set at 43 1/2. Giants are the plus 6 1/2
26:33
underdogs at the spread the money line Underdogs are the
26:36
Giants plus 260 MetLife Stadium where there's always a ghost on
26:42
the field. You know, they pretty much made
26:46
Russell Wilson like a sacrificial lamb and he's got 3
26:51
touchdowns, 3 interceptions. But outside of the one big game
26:54
they had that they end up losing, but it was a big game
26:57
for the team. They're banged up too.
26:59
You know, Malik neighbors. Here's a here's a wide receiver
27:01
I really like. I think he's when he's fully
27:04
healthy, he is one of the top 3 or 4 receivers in the NFL right
27:08
now. But he doesn't stay healthy and
27:10
he hasn't. He's questionable coming into
27:13
this game. 16 catches, 2 touchdowns, 251 receiving yards.
27:17
The proof is in the pudding. I don't see a world where this
27:21
Giants defense is able to slow down the Chargers offense.
27:27
Justin Herbert. I mean you have to have him in
27:29
the conversation as MVP as well. Six touchdowns and an
27:33
interception. He has completed 72 out of 108
27:38
passes for 860 yards. He is monstering through teams.
27:45
He really is. He's monstering through teams.
27:48
Now, the Chargers have a very good running back.
27:50
I'm a big fan of his. Omarion Hampton, 42 carries, 142
27:56
yards rushing in one touchdown, A man among men.
28:01
And what I like to say here is that the Chargers really
28:05
surprised me in the last game. Broncos were rolling, looking
28:10
good and had a little misstep, but then came back and looked
28:16
like they didn't let that bother them.
28:19
Well, they fell short 23 to 20 against these Chargers.
28:25
And what I really like about this Chargers team is that their
28:28
defense isn't just accepting that the offense is going to do
28:33
well. Now they do have a huge problem
28:36
with with Khalil Mack being out, but we have to face the facts
28:41
that he is 1 player and although he is one of the best players on
28:45
that defensive, not the best. They have filled in very nicely.
28:49
And against the Giants team where you have Russell Wilson,
28:52
who is not really interested in running the ball as much, he's
28:56
really a pocket passer now and it's not really the greatest
29:01
thing that is that, but it is a safer thing for his health.
29:06
But then when you look at the running game, Cam Scatterball, I
29:09
like Cam scatterball. 23 carries, 2 touchdowns, he has
29:12
102 rushing yards. But my friends, that 23 carries
29:16
for 102 rushing yards is 3 games worth of stats.
29:24
So that's not good. You know, it's not.
29:27
And I wish there was another way to look at this Giants team or
29:31
frame this game. But there's not the Chargers
29:34
when they cover the -6 1/2. Russell Wilson's on his way to
29:38
being benched and the head coach is on his way to being fired.
29:43
Total goes under 43 1/2 because I don't see the Giants putting
29:48
up a big fight. So I don't like that number.
29:52
And then the charges win -320 and we can move on.
29:56
There's a team every year that ends up burning me some way
30:00
right now. It's the Eagles.
30:02
Three and O they're hitting the road here to play the Buccaneers
30:06
and this is going to be a tough game for the Buccaneers.
30:10
Baker Mayfield's been on a roll this year. 61 for 99615 yards
30:16
passing 6 touchdowns comes in this game.
30:19
Questionable 12 noon kickoff total set at 44 1/2.
30:27
Buccaneers are the plus 3 1/2 underdogs at the spread in the
30:31
plus 170 money line underdogs. I'm liking the Buccaneers in
30:36
this game. Bucky Irving is looking good, 56
30:41
carries, 174 yards rushing. We know Saquon Barkley will get
30:46
it going. Last week is a good example.
30:49
This team looked dead in the water.
30:52
They weren't doing anything. All of a sudden, second-half
30:57
they come alive, end up beating the Rams 33 to 26.
31:03
But the Buccaneers have some issues.
31:06
They're not playing to the caliber they need to, and that's
31:11
a big cause for concern. It's a real big cause for
31:15
concern here because you have to keep in mind this Eagles team
31:20
has only lost a little bit of steam on defense as you have
31:25
Baker Mayfield, who is getting hit quite a lot.
31:28
He comes in questionable to this game.
31:31
Jalen Hurts, we know he's going to play a pretty clean sheet
31:33
every game. 55 for 77, three touchdowns, 479 yards.
31:40
Oh, I really like the Eagles to win this game.
31:43
But I like the Buccaneers on the spread just because they're able
31:48
to score with about anybody so far that we've seen.
31:55
And you know, they're undefeated, just like the Eagles
31:59
total, 44 1/2. I think it goes over.
32:01
I would be happy there, but I like the Buccaneers on the
32:06
spread. The plus points are really good.
32:08
But the Eagles should win this game.
32:10
I'm going to pick them to win. They are favored to win.
32:15
And I think Vegas has that right because even A.J.
32:19
Brown, their best receiver, not their only good receiver, but
32:22
their best receiver came alive in that fourth quarter, made
32:26
sure they won. The defense did about the same
32:29
thing, came alive, made sure they won.
32:34
And I'm really worried about this Buccaneers offense.
32:38
Without Mike Evans, he's doubtful.
32:42
And without Baker Mayfield, now you seem to be in a little bit
32:46
of trouble. And then Emika Igbuka, who I
32:50
absolutely think he is having a remarkable season, 14 catches, 3
32:57
touchdowns and 181 yards receiving.
33:00
The football, the problem is he's getting banged up.
33:04
So I'm just really worried about this Buccaneers team at home too
33:09
much to pick them. I'm going with the Eagles to
33:11
win. Next game is a doozy.
33:14
I think this is going to be a really good game too.
33:17
You have the Tennessee Titans versus the Houston Texans.
33:20
Both teams need a win. I mean, neither team has a win.
33:25
Things are going downhill fast. CJ Stroud is having a a little
33:30
bit of a, a stop in the action. You know, he's not reading the
33:34
defenses. He's holding the ball too long
33:38
and he's not willing to tuck it in, run when there's nothing.
33:41
Because his receivers, let's face it, for the Texas right
33:44
now, are not getting much separation.
33:48
They're leaving Nico Collins, the tight ends and Nick Chubb to
33:52
try to do this all. And I really like Nick Jubb had
33:56
running back. But when you have Nick Jubb
33:59
running these sweeps, these half back sweeps to the left or right
34:03
hash, you're just setting him up to fail.
34:07
He's a guy you got to drive through the middle of the
34:09
offense and the line will push him. 34 carries, 141 yards and a
34:15
touchdown should be better. But here come the Titans, who
34:19
are really desperately going to try to win this game, but they
34:23
lack the talent. They just simply lack the talent
34:27
to compete on the bigger stages, and this is one of them where
34:31
they have to travel. Noon kickoff total set at 38
34:35
1/2. The Titans are the plus 7 1/2
34:37
underdogs at the spread. I like that.
34:42
I think they will cover that. It has moved up a point, so keep
34:46
that in mind. So we're a + 7 1/2.
34:49
Maybe you want to wait a little bit, maybe you don't, because I
34:52
think 7 1/2 is a touchdown and a little bit of a shaving on top.
34:56
So I think that's really good total at 38 1/2.
35:00
This is an over. This is the week both of these
35:04
offenses have been stymied and it's time to get grimy.
35:08
They have to do it. They have to earn it, get it
35:11
going. So I like an over.
35:14
That's my best bet. And then the Houston Texans to
35:17
win at -400 I would not want that on a ticket.
35:22
But I think they win this game, OK.
35:26
But on no teaser ticket, on no parlay, do I want the Houston
35:32
Texans money line because it's just too risky.
35:37
You actually have a case to make to take that plus 300.
35:42
And I'll give you the case is that the Houston, TX defense is
35:45
not holding up. Their offense is not scoring
35:50
enough and. They don't show the hunger.
35:56
So he had. A 14 and 9 loss, a 20 to 19 loss
36:00
and a 17 to 10 loss just recently against Jacksonville,
36:04
who who were just waiting around to get beat.
36:09
But you have to give Trevor Lawrence some credit for winning
36:11
the game. Now you look at the Titans,
36:14
they've had a difficult Rd. Let's be real, it's been a
36:17
difficult road. Now.
36:20
They had the benefit of playing two games at home and didn't
36:25
really look in it at any point. That's kind of dangerous.
36:30
They had the 20 to 12 loss to the Broncos.
36:35
They lose 33 to 19 to the Rams, and then they lost 41 to 20
36:40
against the Colts and they hosted the Rams and the Colts.
36:44
So I just think the Titans are unsure of themselves, lacking an
36:52
identity, have a defense that looks scattered.
36:57
Justin Simmons, their best defensive player, has one sack
37:02
in three games. This is a team that is just,
37:06
again, like Jacksonville. They're just waiting around to
37:08
get beat, just waiting around for someone to beat them, kind
37:11
of like the Panthers, Falcons, a few teams like that.
37:15
They're, you know, Dolphins even.
37:16
They're just waiting around for you to beat them.
37:18
And this is one of those games where the Texans have had some
37:22
time to prepare at home and the coach's job is on the line.
37:27
You know, there's a lot on the line in this game and we start
37:31
to push into dangerous territory with CJ Stroud starting.
37:36
If he doesn't win this game. So I definitely believe the
37:40
Texans will find a way. I don't know if it's going to be
37:43
pretty. The Titans will definitely try
37:46
to go off in this game because they have nothing to lose.
37:48
They're O and three, they're on the road.
37:51
They're going to be this locker room is going to be with each
37:54
other for the whole stretch of the way.
37:57
So I like the plus 7 1/2. I like the over Texans win.
38:01
Nico Collins should have two touchdown receptions.
38:05
SO1 anytime touchdown score bet for him and then an anytime
38:11
touchdown score bet for Nick Chubb.
38:14
Why not? Why not throw that prop in
38:16
there? This is a game where he can
38:19
excel. Make up some lost time and we
38:23
move on to the next game and this is a good one here.
38:26
Don't you like that we get the Indianapolis Colts first, the
38:29
Los Angeles Rams, two teams that both beat the Titans.
38:34
Don't you love it? This is the beginning of the
38:38
3:00 slate of games. So this is a three O 5:00 PM
38:42
kickoff. Colts on their way into
38:46
Inglewood, CA to face the Los Angeles Rams in Sofi Stadium.
38:52
Both teams are really working up some some mojo here.
38:56
I like it. The Colts are three and O the
38:58
Rams are two and one. The Rams have one home win.
39:03
The Colts have one Rd. win. But they are both With a clean
39:07
sheet coming into this game, zero to 0 on the scoreboard,
39:12
there's a lot of reason to believe that this could be a
39:18
Super Bowl. You know, this could be a Super
39:21
Bowl game. You're getting kind of a Super
39:23
Bowl game here. You get the AFC Colts and you
39:26
get the NSU Rams. I don't believe either of these
39:29
teams will be in the Super Bowl, but that's basically what you're
39:33
going to have. You're going to have a high
39:34
scoring game. So the total set at 49 1/2, it
39:37
goes over the Colts are the plus 3 1/2 underdogs at the spread.
39:44
That's dangerous because the ending of this game can get
39:48
crazy. It's going to be close, but the
39:52
Colts are the plus 155 money line underdog now you really
39:57
have to take that into consideration.
40:00
Matthew Stafford having a great year, 63 for 95.5 touchdowns, 2
40:04
interceptions, 739 yards passing the football.
40:09
Daniel Jones 63 for 88.3 touchdowns and he's not afraid
40:14
to tuck it in. Run my friends.
40:17
Jonathan Taylor. Maybe the best running back in
40:20
the game right now. Possible. 60 carries, 3
40:23
touchdowns, 338 yards rushing. They're going to need him on
40:28
this road trip. So they have Tyron Williams,
40:33
whoever they like. He has 55 carries, 1 touchdown,
40:36
226 yards rushing through three games.
40:40
And in this fourth game, you're staring at two teams with two
40:45
good sets of receivers. The Colts have Michael Pittman,
40:49
Alec Pierce. You look at the Rams, they have
40:53
Buka Nakua, and they are not afraid to throw a lot of slants,
40:58
right? They have Devante Adams, he
41:01
comes into this game questionable.
41:03
They have Colby Parkinson, he comes into this game
41:06
questionable. And they have Tyler Higbee.
41:08
He comes into this game questionable.
41:10
I believe they all will play now.
41:13
Alec Pierce, he comes in questionable and Anthony Gold
41:16
comes in questionable. Wide receiver as well.
41:18
Deforest Buckner on the defensive side, 2 offensive
41:22
lineman. Matt Conclaves and Braden Smith
41:25
also questionable. Good chance all of them play.
41:28
Maybe Alec Pierce doesn't though.
41:30
It depends because of concussion protocol so keep an eye on that.
41:35
But I love the over. I have to go with the Rams at
41:39
home. It's not that they're going to
41:42
be comfortable, although I think that helps.
41:45
It's that they are just in better shape, better
41:48
conditioning. And the Colts on the road really
41:52
have yet to really been tested. I think where they were really
41:58
tested was against Denver, but they were at home in the Dome.
42:04
See how that game goes when it's in Denver, when they, you know,
42:10
maybe make it there in the playoffs.
42:12
In that scenario, then the tables could be turned.
42:17
This may not be a table Turner. This is one of those games where
42:21
the Rams win here or they went on the road.
42:24
And I think that, you know, for all practical purposes, this
42:29
Rams team at 2:00 and 1:00 looks like an undefeated team.
42:35
So we have the Colts, who are three and O coming out here to
42:39
look and surprise this LA team, kind of uproot them a little bit
42:46
from that feeling that they're going to go to 3:00 and 1:00.
42:49
So I think the Colts do go to three and one.
42:53
They lose this game, the Rams win -185 little too steep for
42:58
me. I like the over.
42:59
I think that's a really nice spot and we can move on to the
43:03
next game. Next game we get the
43:07
Jacksonville Jaguars on the road to faci San Francisco 49ers.
43:11
49ers are three and O Jaguars two and one total set at 46 1/2.
43:16
Jaguars are the plus 3 1/2 underdogs at the spread and the
43:21
plus 155 money line underdogs. Trevor Lawrence verse what I
43:27
believe is going to be a third string quarterback.
43:31
Here you have Mac Jones heard Brock Hurdy hurt.
43:36
I mean, this is just a weird scenario for the 49ers.
43:40
And this is more of a gut check. You know, it's like, does the
43:43
Jaguars really want it on the road or the 49ers just, you
43:49
know, even without the top 2 quarterbacks on their team,
43:54
they're still going to, you know, find a way to get it done.
43:57
You know, it's a, there's a good case to make that that happens.
44:00
I I do think there's a good case to make that that happens.
44:03
They didn't look particularly well against Arizona and they
44:07
just kind of sneaking by teams, you know, and this is a game
44:12
where the Jaguars, I do believe, will sneak by this 49ers team.
44:18
I think there's enough here where the Jaguars can win.
44:21
Plus 155 on the money line, plus 3 1/2 on the spread.
44:26
My favorite place for this game is Plus. 3 1/2 Jaguars on the
44:29
spread. The total is very daunting here.
44:32
I'm going to go with an under. I don't know if there's going to
44:35
be just a bow load of points scored in this game and we can
44:39
move on to the next. We have the Baltimore Ravens on
44:44
the road to face the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
44:48
Ravens are one and two on the season.
44:50
Kansas City Chiefs are one and two and they need to get it
44:53
going. Total set at 48 1/2 and the
44:57
Kansas City Chiefs are your plus 130 money line underdogs and the
45:01
plus 2 1/2 dogs at the spread. I like the Chiefs to win this
45:08
game. I'm seeing dysfunction on this
45:11
Ravens team and I don't like. It I don't like how it looks
45:15
here, even though I like all the weapons they have, Derrick
45:17
Henry, say Flowers, Mark Andrews.
45:24
I really like the weapons they have.
45:26
Isaiah Likely and Lamar Jackson 54 for 75-9 touchdown, 722
45:34
passing yards. But let's face facts.
45:37
The Chiefs are at home. They need a win.
45:40
And every time they need a win really badly, they seem to get
45:44
it. This is one of those times. 62
45:48
for 105. Three touchdowns, 1 interception
45:51
and 669 passing yards. He's also been taking off
45:56
running the ball. 125 rushing yards, 18 carries, 2 touchdowns
46:01
rushing for Pat Mahomes, their lead receiver.
46:06
Not Travis Kelsey, man, it's Taekwon Thornton. 9 catches for
46:11
171 yards and two touchdowns. That's really good.
46:17
I like the Chiefs to win this game outright plus 1/30 is my
46:22
best bet on that game, plus 2 1/2 if you're wanting to play it
46:26
safe. And I do think it goes under 48
46:30
1/2 points. We are going rapid fire here.
46:34
Up next, the Chicago Bears take on the Las Vegas Raiders.
46:38
The Bears are one and two, The Raiders are one and two.
46:41
The Raiders are sitting at home again in a situation where their
46:45
coach's job is on the line, in my opinion.
46:49
Now the Bears, they're not too far away from that situation.
46:53
They had a good game last week. Remember, we're not building
46:57
into one given week, we're building into this week.
47:02
The Bears on the road are O and one.
47:04
The Raiders at home are O and one beautiful field, Allegiance
47:08
Stadium, Las Vegas, NV. Total set at 47 1/2.
47:13
The Bears are plus 1 1/2 on the spread.
47:15
The money line is equal. They are both in a pick em at
47:20
-110 I'm picking the Raiders. Let's talk about it a little
47:25
bit. Geno Smith, 67 for 106 yards, 4
47:30
touchdowns, 4 interceptions. Pause.
47:33
Why is that important? Well, he's been making mistakes.
47:36
He's been erroring on the side of the offense.
47:40
Now let's see what happens in this game where they're starting
47:43
to put together their team. 831 passing yards for Dino Smith.
47:49
They're running back a Shawn Gentry is starting to come on a
47:53
little bit, 47 carries, a touchdown, 144 yards rush and he
47:56
will have his opportunities in this game.
47:59
It's time to face a couple hard facts about Caleb Williams.
48:03
Number one, without the wheels, without running and being able
48:10
to elude those defenders, he would not be making the plays
48:14
he's making. So you have to give a lot of
48:16
credit to his footwork, his athleticism. 59 for 93.7
48:21
touchdowns and 1 interception, 715 yards passing.
48:26
But that cannot hold up. That's why I'm not big on the
48:31
Bears because that cannot stand. We have a quarterback that has
48:35
to run. It's not that he sees an
48:37
opportunity to and takes it because it's the best move.
48:39
It's he has to. He's forced out of the pocket.
48:42
So then you have your top receiver, Romeo Adunze, who is
48:48
noticing that 16 catches, 4 touchdowns, 227 yards.
48:52
Expect the Raiders to have a plan.
48:55
You already have a Bears defense that's banged up.
48:58
You have a running back in DeAndre Swift, who I'm not a big
49:00
believer in. 42 carries, a touchdown, 149 yards rushing.
49:04
I've seen his game. We know how he plays.
49:07
Not big on it. What I will say is while the
49:10
Raiders have Geno Smith, they're not going to look that great,
49:15
but they will win this game -110 On the money line.
49:20
That's my best bet for this game.
49:22
It goes under 47 1/2. That is a, that is my second
49:25
best bet for this game and I would not bet it, but I think
49:30
the Raiders cover the -1 1/2 just because it's not really
49:34
valuable to me if I'm already taking the money line at -110 We
49:39
are in the final stretch, the final three games.
49:44
Let's go with my favorite, the Green Bay Packers 2 and one on
49:47
the road playing the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in
49:52
Arlington, TX. The Packers come into this game
49:55
big favorites -320 on the money line -6 1/2 favorites at the
50:01
spread and the total set at 47 1/2.
50:05
Yes, I do believe we go over 47 1/2 points because on this
50:10
Cowboys field, receivers, running back seem to just excel.
50:15
Now we got a lot of injuries coming in this game.
50:16
CD Lamb is doubtful. That really hurts the Cowboys
50:20
chances if he doesn't play. If CD Lamb doesn't play, that's
50:24
it for the Cowboys. The Packer side, you have Josh
50:27
Jacobs questionable, but he's questionable.
50:29
Last week's injury report. This is almost like he is
50:33
nursing something, but he also is kind of just letting them
50:38
know that you know, it's a possibility.
50:40
And then Tucker craft questionable 11 catches, 2
50:44
touchdowns and 169 yards receiving.
50:47
He's a beast. He he keeps that Packers offense
50:49
upright, but the Packers have so many weapons on that offense.
50:53
It's time for Jordan Love to start tapping into that arsenal
50:57
of weapons he has on the field. You have so many great players
51:01
to throw the ball to. You don't even have to run the
51:04
ball. But if you do, you need Josh
51:08
Jacobs to really start getting that push and that offensive
51:11
line to give him that push. It's the offensive line we're
51:14
all wondering about for the Packers.
51:16
Everything else is solid. But the offensive line we're
51:19
wondering about, we got Anthony Belton, Rashid Walker and Aaron
51:23
Banks. They're all questionable, but
51:26
let me tell you something. They've all been kind of running
51:28
into the penalty problem too because of that.
51:32
So if they don't play, the Packers have to adjust.
51:36
And that, you know, helps the Cowboys defense.
51:40
But the Packers defense is so good, all the Packers offense
51:44
has to do is stretch these drives out a little bit.
51:48
So if we could stretch the drive out, not settle for a win or try
51:53
to sit on a lead, the Packers will win.
51:57
They have to go for the Pack attack.
52:01
I like the over. I'd like the Packers to win -320
52:05
and in garbage time, I believe the Cowboys fall short on that
52:11
spread, and the Packers cover the spread of -6 1/2.
52:15
And a big reason I do that and say that is because Jordan Love
52:19
has been there and done that. The New York Jets are O and
52:22
three. They're on the road to face the
52:24
Miami Dolphins. They're O and three, Both of
52:26
these teams need to win bad, but I think the Dolphins have maybe
52:33
a little bit more on the table here, more risk for the
52:38
Dolphins. So I think they're going for a
52:39
big reward. Big fish total set of 44 1/2
52:44
Jets are the plus 2 1/2 underdogs at the spread.
52:46
I'll tell you right away. I like that.
52:48
And then plus 120 on the money line.
52:51
Yes, The Jets can keep this close, but they are not in any
52:56
way going to dominate the Dolphins.
52:59
I don't see that. I see this from a standpoint of
53:04
the Dolphins starting to put together the offense that they
53:09
know they have but they haven't been able to utilize.
53:13
When we look at these two teams, their star players have not
53:17
played like stars, minus maybe Garrett Wilson.
53:22
I think he's really done the best he could. 21 catches, 2
53:25
touchdowns, 229 yards receiving. But Fortua Taka live OA 62 for
53:32
89.5 touchdowns, 4 interceptions.
53:35
I mean those are like backup numbers with 575 yards passing.
53:39
Just shows me you guys can move the ball but you can't cash in.
53:43
I think they do cash in -140 Dolphins is a great place to be
53:47
but I like the plus. 2 1/2 for The Jets at the spread is my
53:52
best bet for this game. Total of 44 1/2 goes under
53:58
under. We are here at the final game
54:05
and this one may be a let down. They may shuffle.
54:08
This I don't know. But we have the Monday night
54:12
game of the Cincinnati Bengals versus the Denver Broncos, and
54:16
it's kind of a look away game for the most part.
54:19
Everybody watching raw Netflix. Kickoff is at 7:15 PM.
54:26
The Bengals are two and one Broncos 1 and 2.
54:29
Bengals really shouldn't have two wins.
54:30
They got lucky both times. I think the Broncos crush them.
54:35
Bonex is a monster, JK Dobbins has taken off and Cortland.
54:39
Sutton, all three of them for an anytime touchdown.
54:43
I think it's very possible and I really like out of those three
54:48
to get one is JK Dobbins. He definitely.
54:50
Scored one, that's my best bet anytime.
54:52
Touchdown for JK Dobbins. Total of 44 1/2 the Bengals plus
54:57
7 1/2 at the spread. In the plus 320 underdogs at the
55:02
money line just doesn't interest me.
55:04
Much like the Broncos to win that game.
55:07
Best bet anytime. Touchdown score.
55:10
JP Dobbins. The shuffle and quarterback for
55:13
the Bengals has just been a problem.
55:15
It's going to continue to be a problem until they get Joe
55:18
Burrow back. So the Broncos.
55:20
Take that game, I do think. The Broncos cover that -7 1/2
55:25
spread, even though it's a little bit big kind of wide, I
55:28
think they cover that total goes over 44 1/2.
55:32
I think the total does go over. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you
55:36
for listening. I will be here tomorrow, Friday
55:40
with the College football preview and Picks show.
55:44
We have a boatload of games to talk about, three games
55:47
specifically for Friday night. So I hope you tune into that.
55:51
This was the 70th installment of the Super News, ladies and
55:56
gentlemen. Just like the hands of time, I'm
55:59
turning it over to you. Goodnight, God bless.
56:03
Psalm 37. Four KJV.