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Trump Flies to South Carolina · Balance of Power

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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios.
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  Speaker 4: News.
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  Speaker 6: President heads for south carolina this is a continuation of
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  Speaker 6: the whole red state tour of course that has brought
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  Speaker 6: him to places like texas like kansas where we're told
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  Speaker 6: republicans in these deep red states are having trouble and
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  Speaker 6: the latest is darlene graham new polling out from new
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  Speaker 6: york times sienna that shows this as a one-point race
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  Speaker 6: too close to call in one of the red estates
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  Speaker 6: in the country South Carolina has not elected a Democrat
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  Speaker 6: to the Senate in this century. So we find the
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  Speaker 6: president on the road once again. It makes sense.
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  Speaker 7: J.D.
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  Speaker 6: Vance back in the aforementioned Texas. He's in Weatherford today
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  Speaker 6: to help prop up Ken Paxton. And in Florida, Donald
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  Speaker 6: Trump Jr., Don June, reemerges on the campaign trail. He
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  Speaker 6: is with Byron Donalds. You hear about what's going on
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  Speaker 6: in Alaska? We have a lot to cover there. with
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  Speaker 6: Tyler Kendall, and she's not on the North Lawn today.
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  Speaker 6: As Charlie mentioned, she's with us as one big happy
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  Speaker 6: band at world headquarters in New York.
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  Speaker 7: It's nice to see you, Tyler Kendall. It's on to
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  Speaker 7: South Carolina.
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  Speaker 6: And if you look at these numbers, you see this
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  Speaker 6: Senate or Sienna poll today on this Senate race, Annie
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  Speaker 6: Andrews is within a point, 57%. is pretty remarkable support
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  Speaker 6: of independent voters in this poll. Maybe that's a more
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  Speaker 6: important number. How does Donald Trump move the dial on this?
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  Speaker 2: I mean, to your point about being remarkable, this is
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  Speaker 2: a state that President Trump won by 18 percentage points
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  Speaker 2: in 2024. So we talk a lot about how these
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  Speaker 2: reliably red states now Democrats see an opening in. But
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  Speaker 2: for South Carolina to move That much, it does underscore
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  Speaker 2: those political headwinds that Republicans are facing nationwide. The president
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  Speaker 2: likely to try to ramp up attacks on the Democratic candidate,
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  Speaker 2: Annie Andrews, and try to defend his own economic policies,
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  Speaker 2: which we've seen time and time again this week on
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  Speaker 2: the campaign trail, urging patience with voters when it comes.
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  Speaker 2: to higher gas prices. But this is a seat, as
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  Speaker 2: you mentioned, a Democrat hasn't won it since 1988. It
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  Speaker 2: was held by the late Senator Lindsey Graham since 2002.
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  Speaker 2: And it really feels like a lot of the perhaps inexperience,
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  Speaker 2: it's fair to say, of Darlene Graham has caught up
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  Speaker 2: to her in this race, considering that her brother was
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  Speaker 2: known to be such a staunch ally, but also advisor
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  Speaker 2: of President Trump on critical issues like foreign policy.
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  Speaker 7: Really something. We'll be following him.
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  Speaker 6: It's going to be another state every day, presumably until Tuesday, right?
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  Speaker 7: I know we're not probably.
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  Speaker 6: That far out with the schedule, but this is unusual
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  Speaker 6: activity for a president. He's traveling every single day. These
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  Speaker 6: rallies and these trips cost a lot of money.
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  Speaker 2: He's reportedly made, I believe, 20 stops in the month
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  Speaker 2: run up to Election Day. Continues to crisscross the country.
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  Speaker 2: And then that leads to the questions about How much
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  Speaker 2: does this help when you see his approval rating has
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  Speaker 2: been falling according to all of the top polls that
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  Speaker 2: we trust and cite here at Bloomberg? But then it
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  Speaker 2: also raises the other question, which is, is this all
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  Speaker 2: about turnout? And Republicans feel that they need to have
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  Speaker 2: the president out on the trail in states where he
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  Speaker 2: won by double digits to make sure that the base
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  Speaker 2: turns out, which is why the numbers that you pulled
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  Speaker 2: about independent voters from the poll in South Carolina is
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  Speaker 2: so important because— Are those voters that will, one, turn out?
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  Speaker 2: And can President Trump's base offset what seems to be
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  Speaker 2: enthusiasm this time around from moderates?
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  Speaker 6: We've got to talk about Alaska. This is something the
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  Speaker 6: president is digging into this now. And he brought it
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  Speaker 6: up last evening when he was on the road in
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  Speaker 6: a completely different state.
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  Speaker 7: He's calling for Mary Peltola. to be kicked off the ballot.
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  Speaker 6: I'm not sure that's possible, but this all traces back
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  Speaker 6: to a New York Times report that finds a covert,
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  Speaker 6: coordinated effort to find this extra Dan Sullivan who's on
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  Speaker 6: the ballot up there.
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  Speaker 7: We've learned a lot about what took place.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, the tale of two Dan Sullivans. I feel like
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  Speaker 2: we'll be talking about this a lot. When you talk
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  Speaker 2: about what does Washington talk about, this story, I feel like,
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  Speaker 2: really made waves.
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  Speaker 7: The Dan Sullivans, yeah.
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  Speaker 2: Exactly. So this New York Times report finding that Pal
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  Speaker 2: Tola's campaign and officials with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee,
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  Speaker 2: the DSCC, which helps to organize funding and fundraising across
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  Speaker 2: critical key states, essentially participated, according to their reporting, in
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  Speaker 2: a months-long operation to recruit a spoiler. It goes into
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  Speaker 2: all of the details about getting an operative from the
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  Speaker 2: Midwest to go out to these very rural communities to
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  Speaker 2: find somebody else named Pal. Dan Sullivan, because the incumbent
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: Republican senator is named Dan Sullivan. We should say this
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  Speaker 2: is actually something known as ballot stacking. It's actually relatively
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  Speaker 2: common in politics. We've seen both sides of the aisle
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  Speaker 2: do it, including in Alaska. And it is considered generally legal,
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  Speaker 2: the idea of getting another candidate on the ballot to
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  Speaker 2: siphon votes. But now the Trump administration is arguing that
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  Speaker 2: there could be some sort of criminal conduct here. And
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  Speaker 2: we're seeing Republicans in Congress, the Republican governors say that
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  Speaker 2: they're going to investigate this. But at the moment, we
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  Speaker 2: haven't gotten any evidence presented by the Trump administration of
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  Speaker 2: direct wrongdoing.
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  Speaker 4: Right.
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  Speaker 2: Sure.
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  Speaker 6: Although the I guess the governor, Mike Dunleavy, who's been
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  Speaker 6: on this program, is ordering a criminal investigation. We'll see
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  Speaker 6: if that bears any fruit. President's not waiting around. This
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  Speaker 6: is what he said last night on the stump.
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  Speaker 4: Well, you're going to have to see what happens. It's
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  Speaker 4: hard to believe that you can even be allowed to run, frankly.
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  Speaker 4: I don't know how you could allow somebody like that
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  Speaker 4: to run. It's so unfair. That's a fraud. And it
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  Speaker 4: shouldn't be allowed to happen. And it was done in
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  Speaker 4: conjunction with Schumer and everybody else. It's called voter fraud.
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  Speaker 4: It should not have been allowed to happen.
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  Speaker 6: It's called voter fraud and should not have been allowed
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  Speaker 6: to happen. It's also, to your point, might be legal.
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  Speaker 6: Jared Kurtz. the Democratic operative who was going by the
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  Speaker 6: alias Zane while working in Alaska, was told to go
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  Speaker 6: find as many Dan Sullivans as you can.
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  Speaker 7: This is really something.
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  Speaker 6: And the campaign manager who had been removed from the
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  Speaker 6: campaign didn't realize these interviews were going to end up
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  Speaker 6: in the paper.
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  Speaker 7: Give me a break.
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  Speaker 6: So the other one, the Ramaswamy ad in Ohio, an
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  Speaker 6: internal poll obtained by Axios found 86% say they had seen, read,
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  Speaker 6: or heard something about it and by a two-to-one ratio
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  Speaker 6: had turned to the Democrat because of this attack ad.
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  Speaker 6: This is remarkable, the extent to which it appears to
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  Speaker 6: be backfiring.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, the polling memo warns that the ad is, quote,
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  Speaker 2: having a significant effect as polling now shows Wamaswani behind
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  Speaker 2: Acton by eight percentage points. That's a notable change in
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  Speaker 2: what is considered to be a key battleground state. We
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  Speaker 2: keep talking about it, but these are states that President
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  Speaker 2: Trump did win in 2024. This also pairs and goes
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  Speaker 2: parallel with the closely watched Senate seat there that used
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  Speaker 2: to be held by Vice President J.D.
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  Speaker 8: Vance.
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  Speaker 2: And now you see the former senator, former vice Head
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  Speaker 2: of the Senate Banking Committee, Sherrod Brown, really making a
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  Speaker 2: run at his old seat against the incumbent, John Husted.
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  Speaker 2: But you saw President Trump last night, third visit to
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  Speaker 2: Ohio this month so far. A lot of resources going there.
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  Speaker 2: And really, if anything, amplifying this very controversial ad.
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  Speaker 7: Boy, yeah. I guess— still running in some areas.
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  Speaker 6: I know that you're a Tate person, Tyler, but we're
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  Speaker 6: talking about the Cheesecake Factory this week. And it came
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  Speaker 6: up again last night as this ping-pongs around. This is
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  Speaker 6: one of the dumber stories, right? Barack Obama said the
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  Speaker 6: White House looked like Saddam Hussein had designed a Cheesecake Factory. And, well,
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  Speaker 6: he's talking about the response. Remember when Scott Besson went
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  Speaker 6: to eat lunch at Cheesecake? Here's Barack Obama from last night.
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  Speaker 4: He said, why is he spending so much time fixing
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  Speaker 4: up the White House?
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  Speaker 1: Why is he doing that?
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  Speaker 7: You know why?
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  Speaker 4: Because the White House, I think, is the number one
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  Speaker 4: symbol of our country. And we can't have a White
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  Speaker 4: House with broken windows, with broken stone that hasn't been
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  Speaker 4: painted in 30 years. The president wasn't even mad about
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  Speaker 4: the Saddam Hussein comparison. That part didn't bother him. But
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  Speaker 4: he was very upset about the Cheesecake Factory.
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  Speaker 1: They mobilized a whole of government response to that joke.
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  Speaker 1: Not to inflation, but to that joke.
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  Speaker 7: That's great. Is this story over? Can we say for now?
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  Speaker 2: I mean, you're talking to the correspondent who likes to
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  Speaker 2: cover policy. But I will say, the Wall Street Journal today,
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  Speaker 2: an entire story just landed about the history of the
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  Speaker 2: Cheesecake Factory. It says there are a few cultural institutions
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  Speaker 2: Americans seem to agree on these days, and one of
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  Speaker 2: them is the Cheesecake Factory.
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  Speaker 7: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
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  Speaker 7: more coming up after this.
• 9:34
  Speaker 5: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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  Speaker 6: News on the early vote. Remarkable numbers. University of Florida's
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  Speaker 6: election lab has been tracking these. You hear us mention
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  Speaker 6: it from time to time.
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  Speaker 7: And look at this.
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  Speaker 6: More than 39 million Americans have cast early votes so far. Now,
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  Speaker 6: that's not just mail-in. In fact, about 20 million of
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  Speaker 6: those 39 voted in person. You start looking at the comparisons,
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  Speaker 6: and these are significant numbers. In the 2022 midterms, about
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  Speaker 6: 46 million people voted in the early period.
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  Speaker 7: And we're not done.
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  Speaker 6: University of Florida's political scientist Michael McDonald says overall turnout
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  Speaker 6: could surpass 22, potentially rival 18.
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  Speaker 7: The blue wave.
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  Speaker 6: Saw the highest participation rate since 1914. One of the
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  Speaker 6: questions we have, though, and we'll pose this to Rick
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  Speaker 6: Davis in a minute, Are voters more engaged? More people
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  Speaker 6: are getting out. They want to weigh in as early
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  Speaker 6: as they can. Or are more people simply moving away
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  Speaker 6: from voting on Election Day? We're not going to really
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  Speaker 6: have the answer to that until next week. But it
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  Speaker 6: also makes you wonder about the advertising strategy. People are
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  Speaker 6: talking about this boatload of money Republicans are about to
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  Speaker 6: drop to try to change the score here. There are
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  Speaker 6: five days left. And so closing arguments are being made now.
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  Speaker 6: The Chuck Schumer super PAC win Senate group, it's called,
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  Speaker 6: aligned with Schumer, out with ads in two very important states.
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  Speaker 6: We've talked about them a lot. One of them is Kansas,
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  Speaker 6: dropped a million dollars behind this against Senator Roger Marshall.
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  Speaker 6: This is the red state they think could turn blue
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  Speaker 6: with Pastor Hamilton and his campaign. And you better believe
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  Speaker 6: they're attacking him on costs.
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  Speaker 7: Here's a taste of the ad. It used to cost
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  Speaker 7: $ 600 to fill my combine.
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  Speaker 6: Now it's $ 1, 200.
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  Speaker 1: Food costs, healthcare, electricity, it's all going up. And Roger
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  Speaker 1: Marshall is only making it worse.
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  Speaker 6: He voted 14 times for the Iran war, driving up fuel.
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  Speaker 1: And four times for tariffs, driving up everything. I can't afford.
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  Speaker 7: Diesel for my farm. All right.
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  Speaker 6: I can't afford diesel for my farm. It's Kansas. Don't
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  Speaker 6: need to say any more. You heard the key words there. Tariffs, diesel,
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  Speaker 6: the cost of fuel. Now, in Ohio, there's another ad buy.
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  Speaker 6: In fact, they've got two up there running against Senator
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  Speaker 6: John Husted, who the president was dissecting live at the
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  Speaker 6: podium again last night.
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  Speaker 3: I don't.
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  Speaker 6: Well, you'd have to hear what he said. So I'm
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  Speaker 6: dressing him with his eyes. They put $ 7 million behind
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  Speaker 6: two ads, in this case going after Houston, keeping affordability
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  Speaker 6: in mind on cuts to Medicaid.
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  Speaker 7: Here's a taste.
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  Speaker 3: Medicaid pays for Libby's equipment, her medicine, and her home
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  Speaker 3: health aids. It's a literal lifeline.
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  Speaker 1: I told John Houston our story.
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  Speaker 3: He looked me in the eye and listened as I
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: shared how hard every day is for Libby. Then he
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  Speaker 3: voted for the largest Medicaid cut in American history.
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  Speaker 6: I'm just looking at John Houston in that ad.
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  Speaker 7: He's a pretty handsome guy. All right.
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  Speaker 6: We got to talk to Rick Davis about all of this.
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  Speaker 6: Here's a master in late game strategies. Rick has done
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  Speaker 6: this a lot of times. He's made a lot of
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  Speaker 6: ads and he understands the value of money at this
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  Speaker 6: stage of the race. Bloomberg politics contributor, Republican strategist and
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  Speaker 6: partner at Stonecourt Capital. Rick, it's great to have you
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  Speaker 6: here as we talk five days out Do these ads
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  Speaker 6: have an impact at this stage of the game?
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  Speaker 7: It helps us understand what the closing argument is. How
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  Speaker 7: about for voters?
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  Speaker 9: Well, I think the president is redefining what I would
• 13:45
  Speaker 9: call a beauty contest, and certainly in the case with
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  Speaker 9: Senator Husted in Ohio. Look, I think that we're past
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  Speaker 9: the point of Republicans coming up with a new set
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  Speaker 9: of talking points, a new message that will drive voters
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  Speaker 9: who haven't already voted to the polls on Election Day.
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  Speaker 9: They've been running a base campaign really this entire cycle.
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  Speaker 9: And so it's very hard for me to see That
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  Speaker 9: without some kind of plan.
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  Speaker 4: Right.
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  Speaker 9: Where's the Newt Gingrich, you know, contract with America where
• 14:24
  Speaker 9: Republicans all went out and said, here are the 10
• 14:26
  Speaker 9: points that we're going to do the first day we're back.
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  Speaker 9: We're going to vote on these things. And we didn't
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  Speaker 9: do anything like that in the Republican caucus in the House,
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  Speaker 9: even with control. And so each member in the Senate
• 14:41
  Speaker 9: and the House were left, in the governorships were left
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  Speaker 9: to do their own thing. And a lot of them
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  Speaker 9: did exactly what they should. They veered over to talk
• 14:48
  Speaker 9: about the economy, the affordability, jobs. And those who didn't,
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  Speaker 9: you know, we see some of the effects. I would say, Joe,
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  Speaker 9: that I've been watching independent voters this month. And the
• 15:05
  Speaker 9: migration to Democrats of independent voters compared to 2024 is
• 15:13
  Speaker 9: in excess of 20 points.
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  Speaker 2: Wow.
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  Speaker 9: Advantage Democrats.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah.
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  Speaker 9: You know, you see these things stacking up and it
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  Speaker 9: becomes undeniable at some point.
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  Speaker 6: Well, with that in mind, this new poll on South Carolina,
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  Speaker 6: I'd love your take. New York Times, Sienna. You've got
• 15:28
  Speaker 6: Annie Andrews and Darlene Graham within a point. But inside
• 15:32
  Speaker 6: this poll, and that's news on its own, inside this poll,
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  Speaker 6: Andrews has 57 support among independent voters.
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  Speaker 7: This is what you're talking about.
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  Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, and compare that to the overwhelming advantage
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  Speaker 9: that Trump had in South Carolina with independent voters and
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  Speaker 9: the bogeys like 40%. I mean, in other words, you know,
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  Speaker 9: Donald Trump won handily independent voters in almost, you know,
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  Speaker 9: half of these targeted states. Right now, there's not a
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  Speaker 9: single state, including Texas, where the Republican candidate has a
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  Speaker 9: majority of the independent voters. I would not have said
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  Speaker 9: that South Carolina was likely to flip this cycle. It's
• 16:16
  Speaker 9: not even in the you know, Democrats win in 54 seats.
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  Speaker 9: If Republicans lose in South Carolina, Democrats will have like
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  Speaker 9: 56 seats in this wave. So if you believe the numbers,
• 16:28
  Speaker 9: and I'm seeing very similar private numbers that we're seeing
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  Speaker 9: in these public polls by CNN and CNN and things
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  Speaker 9: like that, then, you know, you're beyond a blue wave
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  Speaker 9: at this stage if states like South Carolina flip.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah.
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  Speaker 6: Rick Davis sounded more like Jim Kessler all of a sudden,
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  Speaker 6: but actually Rick's been very consistent on this.
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  Speaker 9: Actually, Kessler's sounding more like me.
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  Speaker 6: That's very true, Rick. I'll tell him you said that. Actually,
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  Speaker 6: we should have you on together to have this out.
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  Speaker 6: But speaking of advertisements, that's where we started this. The
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  Speaker 6: Ramaswamy ad has really taken on a life of its
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  Speaker 6: own here, even if it's not on the air, Rick.
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  Speaker 6: And when you look at the polling obtained by Axios,
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  Speaker 6: this is from, it was commissioned by a Republican group.
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  Speaker 6: This is an internal poll. This was not something that
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  Speaker 6: we were intended to be discussing. 86% of the survey's
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  Speaker 6: 800 respondents said they'd seen the ad by a two
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  Speaker 6: to one ratio, made them more likely to vote for
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  Speaker 6: the Democrat. Donald Trump brought this up last evening, not
• 17:27
  Speaker 6: the poll, but the ad. He thinks that Vivek Ramaswamy
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  Speaker 6: not only should be running it, but we should feel
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  Speaker 6: bad for him.
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  Speaker 7: Listen.
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  Speaker 4: Vivek was treated very unfairly. He had the mother of
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  Speaker 4: his opponent say that her daughter was was a liar.
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  Speaker 4: I said, why can't I have an opponent like that?
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  Speaker 4: She said worse than that. Horrible things about her own daughter.
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  Speaker 4: And the press, the fake news, criticized him.
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  Speaker 6: You ever heard of anything like this, Rick? Why continue
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  Speaker 6: to double down?
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  Speaker 9: Well, let me set the table a little bit on this.
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  Speaker 9: You've got to understand on the advertising side, we've seen
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  Speaker 9: the biggest advertising campaigns in American political history, $ 11. 3 billion
• 18:21
  Speaker 9: spent on advertising this cycle. That's more than last presidential election.
• 18:26
  Speaker 9: I mean, it's unbelievable how much money has been spent.
• 18:30
  Speaker 9: And a significant portion of it, $ 500 million in Ohio alone.
• 18:35
  Speaker 9: 700 million in Texas. I mean, these numbers are just
• 18:39
  Speaker 9: blow you away. So it's not like voters are looking
• 18:42
  Speaker 9: for information at this stage, right? They've been inundated. And
• 18:46
  Speaker 9: in this ad, very controversial. Republicans, leadership in the state
• 18:52
  Speaker 9: of Ohio, all distanced themselves from it, condemned it. And
• 18:56
  Speaker 9: I'm seeing private polling now that have been very accurate
• 18:59
  Speaker 9: in the past that shows a very large movement in
• 19:03
  Speaker 9: Ohio away from Republicans, double anything we've seen nationwide. You
• 19:08
  Speaker 9: have to come to the conclusion, based on the information
• 19:12
  Speaker 9: I'm seeing on the data, that this has been a disaster,
• 19:16
  Speaker 9: not just for Ramaswamy, but for Husted and for the
• 19:21
  Speaker 9: generic congressional ballot in the state. I mean, it is
• 19:24
  Speaker 9: a huge migration away from Republicans. thanks a lot, you know, Ramaswamy.
• 19:29
  Speaker 9: If you wanted a Republican to get elected, you should
• 19:32
  Speaker 9: condemn this ad. But it's too late, right? This has
• 19:34
  Speaker 9: burned in. I mean, like, that amount of money behind
• 19:37
  Speaker 9: an ad like that, I mean, you can't turn it
• 19:39
  Speaker 9: off at this stage.
• 19:40
  Speaker 6: Well, what if you're John Husted? What does it mean
• 19:42
  Speaker 6: for your campaign? Is there collateral damage?
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: Absolutely.
• 19:46
  Speaker 9: I mean, in the data I've seen, you've had eight
• 19:49
  Speaker 9: points moved the Democrats in the Senate race, nine points
• 19:53
  Speaker 9: move away from the Republicans in the governor's race, all
• 19:57
  Speaker 9: in the last two weeks.
• 20:00
  Speaker 7: Unbelievable.
• 20:02
  Speaker 6: Rick, I've got to ask you quickly about what's happening
• 20:03
  Speaker 6: in Alaska. You've run enough campaigns to know the rules.
• 20:06
  Speaker 6: and you've been steeped in Alaskan politics. Donald Trump's calling
• 20:11
  Speaker 6: for Mary Peltola to be kicked off the ballot. The governor,
• 20:14
  Speaker 6: Don Levy, is calling for a criminal investigation because of
• 20:17
  Speaker 6: this New York Times story that has evidence, according to
• 20:21
  Speaker 6: the Times, of internal collusion to come up with this,
• 20:23
  Speaker 6: stand up this other Dan Sullivan, who shares the same
• 20:27
  Speaker 6: name as the Republican incumbent. Does this break the law,
• 20:30
  Speaker 6: or is this just hardball?
• 20:34
  Speaker 9: Look, I mean, I can't imagine a scenario where this
• 20:37
  Speaker 9: is a violation of the law. The other Don Sullivan
• 20:43
  Speaker 9: met the criteria to be on the ballot. And sure,
• 20:48
  Speaker 9: it's ballot stacking. It's been done in the past in
• 20:51
  Speaker 9: some shape or form. Maybe not this is obvious. And
• 20:57
  Speaker 9: at the end of the day, all this attention... to
• 21:02
  Speaker 9: this issue, which has absolutely no ability to move Republicans
• 21:06
  Speaker 9: onto Dan Sullivan's ballot. No chance an independent's going to say, well,
• 21:11
  Speaker 9: if that's the case, you know, it doesn't do Dan Sullivan,
• 21:15
  Speaker 9: the real Dan Sullivan, any good at all.
• 21:19
  Speaker 7: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
• 21:21
  Speaker 7: more coming up after this.
• 21:26
  Speaker 5: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
• 21:30
  Speaker 5: us live weekdays at noon and 5 p.m. Eastern on
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• 21:37
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• 21:40
  Speaker 5: us live on YouTube.
• 21:43
  Speaker 6: You know who just entered the building? Chris Sununu. He'll
• 21:46
  Speaker 6: be here in studio moments from now as we digest
• 21:51
  Speaker 6: the latest economic data, much like the market is trying
• 21:54
  Speaker 6: to do. Are we happy with this? Economy expanding in
• 21:58
  Speaker 6: the third quarter, fastest pace in a year. That sounds
• 22:00
  Speaker 6: pretty good.
• 22:02
  Speaker 7: GDP, 3.4%.
• 22:02
  Speaker 6: The quarter ending in September. The inflationary numbers, not so good.
• 22:11
  Speaker 6: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the PCE. You hear the
• 22:14
  Speaker 6: geeks talk about this, the preferred gauge of the Federal Reserve.
• 22:20
  Speaker 6: Up 0.5% last month, 0.5%. That's the most since March.
• 22:24
  Speaker 6: The core, up 0.3%. Now, the data also brings some
• 22:29
  Speaker 6: concern about personal spending, which stalled as the quarter drew
• 22:33
  Speaker 6: to a close. You've got people this morning on this
• 22:36
  Speaker 6: inflation number saying, wait a minute, how come we didn't
• 22:39
  Speaker 6: hike yesterday? And do we need 50 basis points now
• 22:42
  Speaker 6: in December if we get a number like this? We
• 22:45
  Speaker 6: talked about the data earlier today on Bloomberg with Kevin Hassett.
• 22:49
  Speaker 6: He's at the White House, of course, the National Economic
• 22:51
  Speaker 6: Council director.
• 22:52
  Speaker 7: Here's what he said.
• 22:54
  Speaker 10: Recall that before the September number, we had three months
• 22:56
  Speaker 10: in a row that if analyzed, then ended up getting
• 23:00
  Speaker 10: us to write about the Fed's target. And then we
• 23:02
  Speaker 10: had a big increase in September, of course, partly driven
• 23:05
  Speaker 10: by the energy prices. If you look at the Cleveland
• 23:08
  Speaker 10: Fed now cast October and the October now cast has
• 23:12
  Speaker 10: October looking like the three previous months. And so if
• 23:15
  Speaker 10: that ends up being true, then, yeah, we are we
• 23:17
  Speaker 10: are pretty much thinking.
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: We had a little bit of a blip.
• 23:21
  Speaker 10: Another way to see it is the blockbuster GDP number
• 23:24
  Speaker 10: that you mentioned with capital spending absolutely through the roof.
• 23:27
  Speaker 10: When you get a big increase in supply, you can
• 23:30
  Speaker 10: have lots of growth without creating Phillips curve.
• 23:32
  Speaker 7: The problem with that.
• 23:33
  Speaker 8: Kevin, is that we're getting supply coming online because there
• 23:36
  Speaker 8: is so much demand. And any of the AI hyperscalers
• 23:39
  Speaker 8: would tell you that demand is outstripping it.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: But I just wonder.
• 23:42
  Speaker 8: If this is the right conversation to be having a
• 23:45
  Speaker 8: week away from midterms, you've said before just a few
• 23:48
  Speaker 8: days ago that affordability is a myth. Director Hazlitt, isn't
• 23:51
  Speaker 8: this the exact mistake that the Biden administration made in
• 23:54
  Speaker 8: their election that they really brushed off concerns of affordability
• 23:57
  Speaker 8: when the voters are feeling it?
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 24:01
  Speaker 10: So first of all, if you look at what's happened
• 24:03
  Speaker 10: to inflation-adjusted consumption, so real consumption since President Trump took office,
• 24:09
  Speaker 10: it's a trillion dollars higher. That's $ 5, 000 per family. And so, sure,
• 24:14
  Speaker 10: there are places, there are pockets. Before it was beef,
• 24:17
  Speaker 10: but beef prices have been coming down. Gasoline, there are
• 24:19
  Speaker 10: pockets where prices are going up. But in the aggregate,
• 24:22
  Speaker 10: if you're an economist and you're honest about the data,
• 24:24
  Speaker 10: you look at the things like what's the bottom line,
• 24:26
  Speaker 10: what's happening to aggregate consumption. It's up a trillion dollars
• 24:29
  Speaker 10: since President Trump took office, and that's after adjusting for inflation. Now,
• 24:33
  Speaker 10: you say, aren't you doing the same thing that Biden did? No,
• 24:36
  Speaker 10: let's make it clear. Biden did something that was dishonest
• 24:39
  Speaker 10: and illogical. He was saying the economy is great when
• 24:42
  Speaker 10: we have 20 percent inflation. Real incomes were dropping about
• 24:44
  Speaker 10: three thousand dollars per family. He was saying the economy
• 24:47
  Speaker 10: is great and the economy wasn't. We're saying that the
• 24:49
  Speaker 10: economy is great and the economy is.
• 24:51
  Speaker 7: There you have Kevin Hassett.
• 24:52
  Speaker 6: That's the representation of the administration here. By the way,
• 24:56
  Speaker 6: a great conversation with Danny Berger there and Isabel Lee.
• 25:00
  Speaker 6: That's the kind of stuff you expect on a day
• 25:02
  Speaker 6: when we are swimming in.
• 25:03
  Speaker 7: Data like this.
• 25:04
  Speaker 6: But it's not just the data, of course. It's the
• 25:07
  Speaker 6: price of gas. It's the price of diesel. And with
• 25:11
  Speaker 6: our next conversation in mind, it's the price of jet fuel.
• 25:14
  Speaker 6: This is something that Chris Sununu has become an expert on. Yes,
• 25:17
  Speaker 6: jet fuel, a price of travel because he is now
• 25:21
  Speaker 6: CEO of Airlines for America. Of course, the former governor.
• 25:24
  Speaker 6: of the great state of New Hampshire. Every time I
• 25:27
  Speaker 6: see you on TV, hear someone write or read about it,
• 25:32
  Speaker 6: it's always the dynasty. He's the member of a political dynasty.
• 25:36
  Speaker 6: Does that feel good to hear that word?
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: No, it's silly. Is it? Look, in New Hampshire- Is
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: it real? There were 10 people in my family. I
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: have seven brothers and sisters. Three of us went into politics.
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: That is below average for New Hampshire, okay? At 30%,
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: we are not even hitting the New Hampshire mark. In
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: New Hampshire, everybody serves in some way. It's just the
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: way it is. So if you don't run for office,
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: your friends and neighbors are. And so that's just it.
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: So maybe compared to the rest of the country, it
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: seems bizarre. But in New Hampshire, it's just another day.
• 26:06
  Speaker 6: Well, I'm going to ask you about politics here if
• 26:08
  Speaker 6: I'm allowed to a little bit. But I want to
• 26:09
  Speaker 6: start just in your own portfolio here. I mean, you're
• 26:12
  Speaker 6: seeing earnings from the airlines here. Jet blew up 21%
• 26:15
  Speaker 6: year over year. United 17, American 19, Southwest 21.
• 26:20
  Speaker 7: Even Frontier had a whopper. Jet fuel, though, is twice
• 26:24
  Speaker 7: what it.
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: Was a year ago.
• 26:24
  Speaker 7: The earnings are stronger.
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: Costs are unfortunately stronger right now with jet fuel.
• 26:27
  Speaker 6: So is the industry thriving or reeling?
• 26:29
  Speaker 7: How is this happening at once?
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: So I would say this. There's good and bad to everything.
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: So the surprising news is demand is still really strong.
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: Those earnings are still coming in. For years, we've talked
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: about this before, the average price of a ticket from
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: 2019 to about 2020, really right before the Iran war,
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: really didn't budge at all. So you could argue that
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: it was kind of the big affordability win in many ways.
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: Now that the Iran war is here, the prices skyrocket,
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: jet fuel is up 200. I think today we literally
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: have the most expensive jet fuel ever. in the history
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: of the planet Earth. And what is happening is the
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: airlines are absorbing about half that cost. Unfortunately, they got
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: to put some of it back onto the customer. So
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: prices have risen, but demand is still strong. So that's good.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: Revenues are there. Demand is there. People are using their
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: credit cards and their... Not credit cards like to buy
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: the ticket, but the points, the loyalty programs, right? They're
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: using that at really high numbers, which is great because
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: those programs... allow working class americans to you know get
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: something for free when when when prices go a little
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: bit high so there's a lot of opportunity out there
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: people are taking advantage they're still traveling in in record
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: numbers which is great but you know you'd love to
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: say well in the next couple months these jet fuel
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: prices are coming down they're not they're just not uh
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: the war is probably going to go on for at
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: least another three four five six months who knows where
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: where that goes so uh None of the airlines right
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: now are planning on fuel dropping precipitously. We could be
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: here for a while. And as you guys have reported,
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: if you look at the world market of fuel, of oil,
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: the reserve market, it's strained as well. So this is
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: like a three or four, five-year problem, not just in
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: the jet fuel world, but in the gasoline world.
• 28:09
  Speaker 7: In the refining world.
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: The refining world. In the next few months... Sometime in 27,
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: you're going to see a large number of refiners that
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: just have to come online for maintenance because they're so overdue.
• 28:21
  Speaker 7: That's a problem.
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: And that's going to create a crunch as well. So
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: they're all planning for all that. There's some tough days
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: on the cost side ahead, but demand is strong.
• 28:28
  Speaker 7: They're making money.
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: They're doing okay.
• 28:30
  Speaker 6: Is the airline business like the ultimate beneficiary of the
• 28:33
  Speaker 6: so-called K-shaped economy? How about an all first-class airline? I
• 28:38
  Speaker 6: think I've suggested this to you before.
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: It's called Emirates. It's subsidized by giant Middle Eastern governments.
• 28:46
  Speaker 6: But is that not where the growth is? You go
• 28:48
  Speaker 6: on an airplane, first class is full, period.
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: So, a couple of things. What you're going to see,
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: and yes, there's a lot of growth, especially revenue growth
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: in the first class and international markets. Now, international has
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: dropped a little bit over the past six to seven months.
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: And what you're seeing specifically out of Europe and Canada,
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: because those economies are just reeling for a variety of
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: different reasons. And those fuel prices are really skyrocketing over there.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: We actually have the the best of the tough world
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: on jet fuel being here in the U.S. because we
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: can still refine a lot of our own words. A
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: lot of the world can't. So, you know, are we
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: the best beneficiaries of the K-shaped economy? I don't know
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: if I want to go into that.
• 29:29
  Speaker 7: Well, that would be horrible if you said that, then
• 29:30
  Speaker 7: they'll play the tape all day long.
• 29:31
  Speaker 8: Yeah, exactly.
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: So I totally get the point that's being made. At
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: the end of the day, I think it's a world,
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: it is very... much a world market. And so what
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: happens in Asia really impacts what's happening back home. What
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: you are going to see though, is flights that aren't
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: making money, because in good times, they'll put flights out
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: there that just don't make any money, because they're keeping
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: the route. They're trying to build into it. Right now,
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: a lot of the airlines just can't do that. So
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: they're going to, while capacity is still high, they might
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: take And we've talked about this before. You know, instead
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: of three flights from Wichita to Seattle, there's only two
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: flights a day. They're going to compact that a little
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: bit to kind of make sure that they're still providing
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: a great product for the customer. The flights are still flying. But,
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: you know, every seat is more likely going to be
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: filled than not.
• 30:17
  Speaker 6: Keeping capacity under control here. And you see it come
• 30:19
  Speaker 6: out in shares. You know, the airlines might be doing well. Boeing,
• 30:23
  Speaker 6: the aerospace companies, GE, and so on, Howmet, are all
• 30:26
  Speaker 6: feeling that a little bit, at least in terms of
• 30:27
  Speaker 6: concerns over what might happen.
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: I don't represent Frontier. I represent the real big guys.
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: But Frontier came out today with their numbers. Their revenue
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: and their— 53%?
• 30:38
  Speaker 7: Huge, huge boom for them.
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: But they're still losing money because they have to deal
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: with these incredibly high costs. costs. Labor and fuel make
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: up well over 50% of just putting a plane in
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: the air at this point.
• 30:49
  Speaker 6: So when you turn back to your former life of politics,
• 30:52
  Speaker 6: how does this come out at the voting booth? Are
• 30:55
  Speaker 6: you buying the narrative right now? I keep hearing about
• 30:59
  Speaker 6: a blue wave that maybe even a Sununu might have
• 31:03
  Speaker 6: trouble winning in a state like New Hampshire.
• 31:04
  Speaker 7: What's going on here?
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: So a couple of things. Will Democrats have a good
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: day on election day? Of course they will. It's a
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: midterm election, guys. So let's set the bar there. If
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: the Democrats didn't have a good day, something would almost
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: be wrong. This is my thesis. I think extremists are
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: going to lose on both sides. I think America is
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: really tired of that nonsense. And there's just so much tribalism.
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: And by tribalism, I mean, well, I'm willing to forgive
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: these horrible things that I don't like about a person's
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: character or the manipulation going on up in Alaska or
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: whatever it might be because it's my team. And I
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: think we just really got to get past that.
• 31:43
  Speaker 6: The other team is going to destroy the country as
• 31:44
  Speaker 6: we know it.
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: That's right.
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: The other team is the end of the world.
• 31:46
  Speaker 7: The end of the world, right?
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: Every election is the most important. So it's a very
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: important election. Now, I also do believe, and I'm not
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: just saying this as a Republican and as a guy
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: from New Hampshire, where there might be another Sununu on
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: the ballot up in New Hampshire. I think particularly in
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: Maine and New Hampshire, I think both my brother John
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: and Susan Collins are going to do very well.
• 32:03
  Speaker 7: Susan Collins wins.
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 32:05
  Speaker 7: And my brother.
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: There's a massive under-polling of Republicans in New England. And
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: there's evidence for that. Look, on the day that I
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: got elected governor back in 2016, the day before I
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: got elected, the UNH poll, the number one poll in
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: my state, had me losing by 11. Right? I mean,
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: imagine the mindset waking up going into your first major election.
• 32:26
  Speaker 7: My God.
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: And your newspaper's like, you got absolutely no shot. It's done.
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: That's probably why I was drinking so heavily on election night.
• 32:33
  Speaker 8: Shit.
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: But I won by two. I won by two. Just
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: six years ago, Susan Collins, every poll consistently had her
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: losing by five, six, seven. I think she won by eight.
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: So that's a 14-point swing. You don't need that kind
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: of swing this year for those Republicans.
• 32:48
  Speaker 7: To do well.
• 32:49
  Speaker 6: Are you buying into Texas, Kansas, these sort of... South Carolina,
• 32:53
  Speaker 6: the president's going to be there tonight because it's a
• 32:55
  Speaker 6: one-point race.
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: Yeah. So.
• 32:58
  Speaker 6: In the red states, when you see a tie, it
• 33:01
  Speaker 6: favors the Republican. It favors the Ken Paxton, the Darlene Graham.
• 33:05
  Speaker 6: I think Ohio could be in trouble. I think Texas
• 33:07
  Speaker 6: could be in trouble. And I know a lot of
• 33:10
  Speaker 6: people say, boy, Texas can't go blue.
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: No, it could.
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: Don't say you never know. Candidate quality matters. They haven't
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: really knocked it out of the park there. So unfortunately,
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: that could be a loss for the Republicans. Alaska is
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: really weird. Two days ago, I would have told you
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: there's no chance. I love Dan Sullivan, Senator Sullivan. I
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: think he's incredible. but he just doesn't have any chance
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: of winning.
• 33:30
  Speaker 6: We only have one minute. If you were the governor
• 33:32
  Speaker 6: of that state, would you order a criminal investigation?
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: Oh, you got to investigate.
• 33:35
  Speaker 7: Absolutely.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: The question is if Mary Pertola herself knew this was
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: going on and her campaign definitely did.
• 33:40
  Speaker 6: Does that break a law? Or is this just ballot stacking? Boy,
• 33:45
  Speaker 6: I'm not a lawyer, but it's wrong. It's wrong and you.
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: Should be senator.
• 33:48
  Speaker 7: And you could come out on the other side in
• 33:50
  Speaker 7: the voting booth.
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: Absolutely. And I think there's going to be a strong
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: push for Dan in these last four days to say,
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: we're in Alaska. We have a lot of pride in
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: our state. Putting all that aside, we've got to get
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: it done. So at the end of the day, it's
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: going to be 50-51 Republicans. And I'd like to tell
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: people that everything's going to change. But no, the sun
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: will come up tomorrow and the most important thing will
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: be your local school board.
• 34:08
  Speaker 7: So you think the Senate stays Republican?
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: I do.
• 34:11
  Speaker 6: Vote for your local school board. I just happen to
• 34:13
  Speaker 6: be up here. I'm delighted that you're in New York.
• 34:15
  Speaker 7: Great to see you.
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: A couple of New Yorkers just hanging out.
• 34:17
  Speaker 6: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
• 34:21
  Speaker 6: sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify.
• 34:24
  Speaker 7: Or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find
• 34:26
  Speaker 7: us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at noontime Eastern
• 34:30
  Speaker 7: at Bloomberg.com.