Transcript

Credlin | 2 July · Credlin

0:02
Speaker 1: Peter kl Live on Sky News Australia.
0:08
Speaker 2: Well, good evening and welcome to the program. I'm Jamie
0:11
Speaker 2: Rogers filling in for Peter Predlin coming up tonight. Defense
0:16
Speaker 2: Industry Minister Pat Conroy says Australia's defense capabilities must adapt
0:21
Speaker 2: to a more dangerous world. Today's reforms enough to meet
0:25
Speaker 2: the challenge. The Reserve Bank is warning the housing market
0:30
Speaker 2: is slowing faster than expected. What does this mean for
0:33
Speaker 2: your wealth and our economy? First, he took his message
0:38
Speaker 2: to Canbra through billboards. What's Joseph Dowe done now to
0:42
Speaker 2: get in front of the Prime Minister? And the government
0:46
Speaker 2: gets defensive when pressed on border protection.
0:50
Speaker 3: Why is the Albanezer government so weak in protecting Australia's borders?
0:55
Speaker 4: You get a sense of the Member of the marshs
0:58
Speaker 4: worn in that question.
1:02
Speaker 2: But first, right now, Australians are united by only one thing.
1:07
Speaker 2: They are fed up. Today's Redbridge polling proves it. Australians
1:12
Speaker 2: have lost faith in the major parties.
1:15
Speaker 5: Take Victoria.
1:16
Speaker 2: Pauline Hansen doesn't even have a state parliamentary leader. She
1:21
Speaker 2: doesn't have confirmed candidates or policies. Yet one nation is
1:25
Speaker 2: now polling ahead of both Labor and the Liberals. Whilst
1:30
Speaker 2: it's close, are you surprised one nation is leading? Liberal
1:34
Speaker 2: leader Jess Wilson has done a good job highlighting the
1:38
Speaker 2: Allen government's failings, but she's now facing trouble closer to home.
1:43
Speaker 2: More redeeming is refusing to apologize to Matthew Guy after
1:47
Speaker 2: accusing him of assault, acclaim police have cleared him of.
1:51
Speaker 2: Wilson says she has asked Deeming to apologize.
1:56
Speaker 5: Throughout this process.
1:57
Speaker 6: I made it clear tomorrow I expected her to apologize
2:02
Speaker 6: to Matthew. I think that is the right thing to do,
2:05
Speaker 6: and Mora has decided that's not the case, and now
2:07
Speaker 6: the State Executive will me.
2:10
Speaker 2: But for all the Liberals internal strife, the biggest story
2:13
Speaker 2: sits on the other side of the chamber with Justinter Allan.
2:17
Speaker 2: The Premier's net favorability is minus forty two percent, making
2:21
Speaker 2: her one of the most unpopular state leaders in Australian history.
2:26
Speaker 2: Victorian lay Brampees are reportedly frustrated with just Into Allan's
2:30
Speaker 2: handling of crime and corruption allegations linked to Victoria's one
2:35
Speaker 2: hundred billion dollar big build, and the Premier's inability to
2:39
Speaker 2: explain the cost to taxpayers, especially since she oversaw the
2:43
Speaker 2: transport infrastructure portfolio for almost a decade. One Nation's support
2:48
Speaker 2: is now strongest outside the inner city. They're polling ahead
2:52
Speaker 2: of the major parties and rural areas at thirty four percent,
2:55
Speaker 2: provincial seats at thirty one percent, and out of suburban
2:59
Speaker 2: electorates at two twenty eight percent. Even in inner Melbourne
3:02
Speaker 2: it's still attracting one in five voters. The silver lining
3:07
Speaker 2: for the coalition is that Jess Wilson is the most
3:10
Speaker 2: popular leader, with an approval rating of thirteen. Senator James
3:14
Speaker 2: Patterson reiterated this on Sky News.
3:18
Speaker 7: What I thought was.
3:19
Speaker 8: Very illustrative in that poll. Despite the messy couple of
3:21
Speaker 8: weeks the Victorian limberals have had which they would acknowledge themselves,
3:24
Speaker 8: Jess Wilson is by far and away the most popular
3:27
Speaker 8: political leader in Victoria. I'll have to choose between either
3:30
Speaker 8: Ben Carrol or de Cinder Allen or Jess Wilson. I
3:32
Speaker 8: think they'll choose Jess Wilson.
3:35
Speaker 2: What's frustrating about this popularity for liberal voters that while
3:39
Speaker 2: Labor is under pressure over the CFMEU corruption scandal, Victoria's
3:43
Speaker 2: soaring debt, crime, cost blowouts. What have the Liberals spent
3:48
Speaker 2: the past week talking about themselves? Another public fight, another
3:54
Speaker 2: internal distraction, another headline that has nothing to do with
3:58
Speaker 2: the people they're trying to win back. And it's not
4:01
Speaker 2: just Victoria, there's New South Wales. The Liberals are now
4:05
Speaker 2: facing an i CAAC inquiry into allegations of illegal political donations,
4:10
Speaker 2: brand stacking and factional power broking. None of those named
4:14
Speaker 2: have been charged and they'll have the opportunity to respond.
4:18
Speaker 2: Liberal leader Kelly Sloan spoke earlier today.
4:22
Speaker 9: I support i caaq's investigation. I want them to be thorough.
4:27
Speaker 9: I want them to shine a light on this. I
4:30
Speaker 9: want them to hold those responsible if they are found
4:33
Speaker 9: to be guilty, and I want to clear them, to
4:35
Speaker 9: clear the names of those who are found to be
4:39
Speaker 9: clear of any of any corruption as well. For the
4:42
Speaker 9: sake of my parliamentary colleagues, we want this done.
4:45
Speaker 5: We want the i CAAC to.
4:46
Speaker 9: Get on with their job and we want to understand
4:48
Speaker 9: what we're dealing with.
4:50
Speaker 2: While Premier Chris Mins has reportedly written to New South
4:53
Speaker 2: Wales's Labour's head office requesting it suspends the two labor
4:57
Speaker 2: members identified by IKAC. But once again the headlines aren't
5:02
Speaker 2: around the issues that are affecting Australians. They're about politicians,
5:06
Speaker 2: internal factions and allegations of backroom deals.
5:10
Speaker 5: At a time when.
5:10
Speaker 2: Trust in politics is already at a historic low, this
5:14
Speaker 2: is exactly the sort of story of why Australians are
5:18
Speaker 2: disillusioned with the major parties.
5:21
Speaker 9: I want people in New South Wales to know that
5:23
Speaker 9: we're focused on them, not about us, not about historical scandals.
5:28
Speaker 9: I want to be focused on the policy agenda that
5:30
Speaker 9: I'll be driving, and I want them to know that
5:33
Speaker 9: there are really good people in politics, and that is
5:35
Speaker 9: all my colleagues and the majority of people in the party.
5:38
Speaker 9: And wherever you see political scandal, whether it's in the
5:41
Speaker 9: Liberal Party or the Labor Party or elsewhere, you know,
5:44
Speaker 9: it lets us all down.
5:46
Speaker 2: When political parties becomes consumed by scandals, factional warfare and
5:51
Speaker 2: internal battles, voters they look somewhere else. The latest sky
5:56
Speaker 2: News YUGUV pulse polling reveals something else.
6:00
Speaker 5: More than a century.
6:01
Speaker 2: Labor proudly called itself the Party of the worker, the
6:04
Speaker 2: Party of the Unions, the party that stood up for
6:08
Speaker 2: ordinary Australians, well not anymore. Today, Labour's strongest support comes
6:14
Speaker 2: from wealthier Australians and the middle class. Working Australians have
6:18
Speaker 2: walked away amongst self described working class voters. One Nation
6:23
Speaker 2: now leads Labor by twelve points. So what's changed. Have
6:28
Speaker 2: millions of Australians suddenly become rusted on One Nation supporters?
6:33
Speaker 2: I don't think so. I think they're sending a message.
6:36
Speaker 2: Who's listening to me? One Nation is seen as the
6:40
Speaker 2: only option now, not because everyone in Australia agrees with
6:45
Speaker 2: all of One Nation's policies, but politics has changed. Trust
6:50
Speaker 2: has been lost, and when that happens, it's hard to
6:53
Speaker 2: win back. So until Labor and the Coalition understand that
6:58
Speaker 2: today's warning from Australians could become tomorrow's political reality. Governments
7:08
Speaker 2: have a habit of believing they know best that if
7:11
Speaker 2: they change a law, introduce a new tax, or rewrite
7:15
Speaker 2: the rules, Australians will just fall into line. But that's
7:19
Speaker 2: not how markets work, and it's certainly not how people work,
7:23
Speaker 2: because every government eventually learns.
7:26
Speaker 5: The same lesson.
7:27
Speaker 2: When you change the incentives, people change their behavior, and
7:32
Speaker 2: right now Labor is learning that lesson the hard way.
7:36
Speaker 2: Let's look at the housing market. Labour's changes to capital
7:40
Speaker 2: gains tax and negative gearing were sold as a way
7:43
Speaker 2: of helping first home buyers. The Prime Minister argues Australians
7:47
Speaker 2: shouldn't worry about the decline in prices. Whilst the Prime
7:52
Speaker 2: Minister isn't concerned, the Reserve Bank is warning the slowdown
7:56
Speaker 2: in the property market is happening faster than expected. The
8:00
Speaker 2: latest figures paint a concerning picture. The value of new
8:05
Speaker 2: dwelling approvals has now fallen for three consecutive months. Housing
8:09
Speaker 2: credit growth has slowed to its weakest pace in a year.
8:13
Speaker 5: Loan applications they're drying up.
8:16
Speaker 2: Banks are already cutting mortgage rates to compete for a
8:19
Speaker 2: shrinking pool of borrowers, and according to mcquarie, new lending
8:24
Speaker 2: from investors has fallen by as much as fifty percent
8:28
Speaker 2: fifty percent. Sky News Business editor Ross Greenwood says falling
8:33
Speaker 2: house prices has a flow on impact to the economy.
8:37
Speaker 10: There's a reality here, and that is the wealth effect
8:40
Speaker 10: of home prices. If home prices established, home prices are falling,
8:44
Speaker 10: Australians spend less. They spend less on furniture, on cars,
8:49
Speaker 10: on home renovations on a whole range of things. Home
8:52
Speaker 10: Builders don't build when home prices are falling, and the
8:55
Speaker 10: reason is because there is no buying demand out there
8:58
Speaker 10: to buy those times, and so therefore the impact on
9:01
Speaker 10: the economy can be especially die.
9:05
Speaker 2: The Prime Minister says, first, home buyers are finally getting
9:08
Speaker 2: a fair ago because they're no longer competing with investors
9:11
Speaker 2: receiving tax concessions. But what happens if the market doesn't improve.
9:17
Speaker 2: Millions of Australians have most of their wealth tied up
9:19
Speaker 2: in their homes. Construction employs hundreds of thousands of people.
9:25
Speaker 2: State governments rely on stamp duty, banks rely on mortgage lending.
9:29
Speaker 2: Confidence across the economy is closely linked to confidence in
9:33
Speaker 2: the housing market.
9:35
Speaker 10: The government with its target of trying to build one
9:37
Speaker 10: point two million homes between well twenty twenty five and
9:40
Speaker 10: the end of this decade, well that's completely cooked because
9:44
Speaker 10: nobody will have the confidence to build these homes if
9:47
Speaker 10: there's no demand out there and there is no profit
9:49
Speaker 10: in those homes when you try and build them, And
9:52
Speaker 10: that is fundamentally a real problem, an economic problem that
9:56
Speaker 10: the government is going to have to face.
9:59
Speaker 2: The sol says industry confidence has fallen to its lowest
10:03
Speaker 2: level in five years. That's why governments should always be
10:07
Speaker 2: careful when they try to engineer markets through the tax system.
10:11
Speaker 2: You can legislate attax, you can change the rules, but
10:15
Speaker 2: you can't legislate human behavior. This is a lesson that
10:19
Speaker 2: all governments learn eventually, but for Albo, he'll have to
10:24
Speaker 2: learn it the hard way. Well, let's head to Canberan
10:31
Speaker 2: now for tonight's political headlines with Sky News political reporter
10:34
Speaker 2: Reuben Spargo.
10:36
Speaker 1: The e Safety Commissioner claims the threat of violence and
10:39
Speaker 1: hate speech online is growing exponentially. Julie Inman Grant today
10:44
Speaker 1: fronted the Royal Commission on Anti Semitism and Social Cohesion.
10:48
Speaker 11: I feel like we've been given a fly swatter to
10:51
Speaker 11: tackle a swarm of killer bees.
10:53
Speaker 1: There are growing calls for the powers of the online
10:56
Speaker 1: watchdog to be bolstered the government's gambling advertising ree of
11:00
Speaker 1: facing a Senate roadblock. The changes would limit TV and
11:04
Speaker 1: radio ads during certain times and create an opt out
11:08
Speaker 1: feature for online platforms. Coalition MPs and the Greens are
11:12
Speaker 1: arguing labours proposed restrictions don't go far enough Instagram, YouTube, Snapchat.
11:19
Speaker 1: They need the toughest restrictions of all because their tailor
11:22
Speaker 1: and gambling ads influence ads, the legislation will face a
11:26
Speaker 1: Senate inquiry. The Home Affairs Minister is defending the work
11:29
Speaker 1: of the Australian Border Force. An alleged people smuggling operation
11:34
Speaker 1: was discovered in far North Queensland.
11:36
Speaker 3: We've had twelve more illegal arrivals who managed to have
11:40
Speaker 3: a frothy at the pub before authorities detained them. Why
11:44
Speaker 3: is the Albaneze government so weak in protecting Australia's borders.
11:49
Speaker 4: You get a sense of the members of the Marussia's
11:52
Speaker 4: warn in that question, a level of the level of
11:56
Speaker 4: aggression from those who want to harm our borders and
11:59
Speaker 4: those who want to harm our country.
12:01
Speaker 1: Parliament now enters its winter recess break.
12:05
Speaker 2: More time to bring in my panel now political commentator
12:09
Speaker 2: Roe Knox and Sky News contributor Caroline Katz and Varnas
12:13
Speaker 2: ladies welcome.
12:15
Speaker 5: I will start with you just.
12:16
Speaker 2: Around this New South Wales ICAC has announced an eight
12:20
Speaker 2: week public inquiry into allegations that are involving political donations
12:25
Speaker 2: and branch stacking. And with those allegations they haven't been tested.
12:30
Speaker 2: How important is it though, that this process is allowed
12:33
Speaker 2: to run its course while ensuring public confidence in our
12:36
Speaker 2: political institutions is really maintained.
12:40
Speaker 12: Yeah, Jamie, So I know your viewers love context, So
12:43
Speaker 12: just a little bit of context around this. Firstly, ICAC
12:48
Speaker 12: has said very explicitly that these are allegations only. Secondly,
12:52
Speaker 12: as you outline, there's essentially two categories of our allegations.
12:58
Speaker 12: The first two are around political donations and in proper
13:04
Speaker 12: uses and attempts to influence public office. That's the first two,
13:09
Speaker 12: and the third is actually quite separate. It's around purported
13:14
Speaker 12: in timmetry behavior by two labor counselors. The issue from
13:19
Speaker 12: a political standpoint for both major parties, Jamie, as you said,
13:25
Speaker 12: is this will be a public inquiry.
13:28
Speaker 13: It starts at the end of July.
13:30
Speaker 12: And the standard approof for IKAC is a civil one,
13:35
Speaker 12: so it's on the balance of probabilities, it's not a
13:38
Speaker 12: criminal one. So from a political standpoint, regardless of whether
13:43
Speaker 12: these allegations are proved or disproved, this is going to
13:47
Speaker 12: be very hard for both major parties.
13:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, Carolye Road makes a great point. And I now
13:55
Speaker 2: look back to Victoria where one nation is leading, and
13:58
Speaker 2: that's despite they'm not having a leader, they don't have policies,
14:02
Speaker 2: they don't have candidates, and it's just because of this
14:05
Speaker 2: constant narrative where either liberals or labor are dominating the
14:10
Speaker 2: headlines for all of the wrong reasons.
14:13
Speaker 5: What do you think this says about.
14:15
Speaker 2: The political landscape that we're in right now, that we
14:17
Speaker 2: see one nation polling so well when they don't have
14:21
Speaker 2: a leader.
14:23
Speaker 14: Look good evening, Jamie and Roy and everyone. The thing is,
14:26
Speaker 14: poles do bounce. I can tell you living here every
14:29
Speaker 14: day in Victoria, Jacinta Allen is the most hated premier
14:34
Speaker 14: in this state and also in the country. People are
14:37
Speaker 14: absolutely fed up of what is going on. Every day
14:40
Speaker 14: there is a front page headline about alleged corruption, the
14:44
Speaker 14: big build, we're heading for a two hundred billion dollar debt.
14:48
Speaker 14: Jess Wilson, who is leading the Liberals, is so popular.
14:52
Speaker 14: People just want to get rid of this labor government.
14:54
Speaker 14: You made a really important point that one nation they
14:57
Speaker 14: don't have a leader, they don't know what sits they're
15:00
Speaker 14: going to actually run in. But it shows the frustrations
15:02
Speaker 14: of everyday Victorians. Just last night at seven point thirty,
15:06
Speaker 14: a fifteen year old boy, a fifteen year old boy
15:10
Speaker 14: was stabbed to death and a sixteen and twenty year
15:13
Speaker 14: old have been charged over the actual stabbing. What charges
15:21
Speaker 14: they face, we don't know yet, but this is horrific.
15:23
Speaker 14: We've also got our police that are doing machete patrols
15:28
Speaker 14: in some major shopping centers in Melbourne to try and
15:31
Speaker 14: restore confidence because we know that there've been a lot
15:34
Speaker 14: of knife fights and machete attacks. For the views that
15:37
Speaker 14: may not know there were machette bins, were meant to
15:41
Speaker 14: have the strongest laws against knife crime in this state
15:43
Speaker 14: and against machetes. This is a dreadful waste of police resources.
15:48
Speaker 14: It's great that they're on the beat, but they're on
15:50
Speaker 14: specific machete patrols at major shopping centers and people have
15:55
Speaker 14: fed up and in Victoria, this labor government really does
15:59
Speaker 14: have to go now. The Liberals have got some internal
16:02
Speaker 14: problems that will hopefully be resolved by the end of
16:04
Speaker 14: the week. But Jess Wilson is out there on her tour,
16:07
Speaker 14: thirty three day tours. She's visiting eighty eight Lower House
16:10
Speaker 14: electorates across the state.
16:12
Speaker 5: She is very, very popular. She's a millennial.
16:15
Speaker 14: She is appealing to everybody and this state is just
16:18
Speaker 14: going worse. Whether it's crime, whether it's potholes, whether it's
16:22
Speaker 14: alleged corruption. This is a broken state. And I hear
16:26
Speaker 14: exactly what you're saying about one Nation, but that's a
16:29
Speaker 14: protest vote because there is no leader. And I actually
16:33
Speaker 14: think that Labor is very scared because the Liberals are
16:36
Speaker 14: doing very well in the polls here.
16:38
Speaker 2: I think that is what's a bit frustrating, though, isn't
16:40
Speaker 2: it Roe That this is the time that the Liberals
16:43
Speaker 2: really should be shining in Victoria. And that's why I
16:45
Speaker 2: always get quite surprised. I know that you can't take
16:48
Speaker 2: everything on face value with the polls, but you would
16:50
Speaker 2: think that the Liberals would be dominating in the polls.
16:53
Speaker 2: But the most recent one still has all three one Nation,
16:56
Speaker 2: Liberal and Labor very very closely tired.
16:59
Speaker 5: I would have thought were a lot further back than that.
17:02
Speaker 13: Yeah, and Jamie, you alluded to it.
17:04
Speaker 12: They actually did the polling during that week, and I
17:09
Speaker 12: know that Victorians can be somewhat litigious, so I'm going
17:12
Speaker 12: to be very careful with my wording here at Jamie.
17:15
Speaker 12: But you know, it was another chapter in the Moira Deeming.
17:21
Speaker 13: Book when they.
17:23
Speaker 12: Did this polling I think the other thing that's really
17:25
Speaker 12: interesting about the polling. Jamie's Red Bridge is obviously an
17:29
Speaker 12: excellent polling outfit, but they do have their margin at
17:33
Speaker 12: one point four percent, and most pollsters will say that
17:38
Speaker 12: the margin should be at least three percent. And as
17:42
Speaker 12: Caroly said, people are going to one nation even though
17:46
Speaker 12: they only have one endorsed candidate, who is the guy
17:49
Speaker 12: that ran in the pen in that by election. They
17:51
Speaker 12: don't have any other candidates.
17:54
Speaker 13: In the field.
17:54
Speaker 12: But I thought the other thing Jamie about the polling
17:57
Speaker 12: that was fascinating is one nation voter is saying that
18:00
Speaker 12: they are completely locked into that vote and they're not
18:06
Speaker 12: necessarily going to move even though there aren't any candidates
18:09
Speaker 12: in the field yet.
18:11
Speaker 2: And Carraly, just on that story that you sadly were
18:13
Speaker 2: telling us in Victoria, those two have been arrested but
18:17
Speaker 2: not charged debt. So we will keep an eye on
18:20
Speaker 2: that story and keep everything updated to our viewers.
18:24
Speaker 5: But Carly, I do want to talk to you about.
18:26
Speaker 2: A topic that I know that you've been speaking about
18:28
Speaker 2: quite a lot, and this comes from former Prime Minister
18:31
Speaker 2: Julia Gillard. She was speaking at Manchester University and an
18:34
Speaker 2: audience member asked her about the changes that she made
18:38
Speaker 2: to the Sex Discrimination Act back in twenty thirteen and
18:40
Speaker 2: the repercussions that it's then since had on women's rights.
18:43
Speaker 5: Take a listen to her response.
18:45
Speaker 15: I'm not sure that this is going to be too
18:47
Speaker 15: interesting to the audience because it's a very Australian matter.
18:51
Speaker 15: But let me just respond in the following way. If
18:54
Speaker 15: you look at the parliamentary debates in the changes to
18:58
Speaker 15: the Sex Discrimination Act twenty twelve, you'll find that the
19:02
Speaker 15: issues you're referring to were not raised by anyone because
19:07
Speaker 15: they simply weren't a matter of public discourse the way
19:11
Speaker 15: they are today. So it was a different time.
19:16
Speaker 2: What do you say to that, I mean, she has
19:18
Speaker 2: not taken any form of accountability for the mess that
19:22
Speaker 2: has since been created.
19:23
Speaker 5: Has she?
19:25
Speaker 9: No?
19:25
Speaker 14: I think Anthony Albanezi and Jim Chalmers have learned from her.
19:28
Speaker 5: That is insulting.
19:30
Speaker 14: It didn't even need to be changed the Sex Discrimination Act.
19:33
Speaker 14: We've now got a situation where because biological sex was
19:38
Speaker 14: removed from the Act, courts are actually interpreting gender identity
19:43
Speaker 14: to be the preferred option. The other thing is she
19:46
Speaker 14: can't say that she's a protector and a supporter of
19:48
Speaker 14: women and girls when she's quite prepared to allow biological
19:52
Speaker 14: males into change rooms. It's very convenient this issue, as
19:56
Speaker 14: you said, you've been talking about it as well, Jamie.
19:58
Speaker 14: Everyone has been to talking about She removed that we've
20:02
Speaker 14: got the giggle and tickle case here in Australia and
20:05
Speaker 14: how insulting to say to a British audience. Oh, I
20:09
Speaker 14: don't think this will be of much interest. It is
20:11
Speaker 14: a vital interest because the rest of the world seems
20:14
Speaker 14: to have come to its senses, in the United Kingdom
20:16
Speaker 14: and the USA, but Australia is just refusing to actually
20:20
Speaker 14: change what is patently clear that an adult female biological
20:26
Speaker 14: I am I'm just so irritated by Julia Gillard. I mean,
20:31
Speaker 14: now she's coming out saying it.
20:33
Speaker 5: We all know where has she been.
20:34
Speaker 14: It didn't need to be changed and these are the consequences.
20:37
Speaker 14: And you're quite rightly said Jamie. She is not taking
20:40
Speaker 14: any accountability or responsibility for her actions and allowing a
20:45
Speaker 14: lot of people to go through a lot of trauma
20:47
Speaker 14: through her negligence at the time.
20:51
Speaker 2: Whilst Julia Gillard doesn't think that it's an issue that
20:54
Speaker 2: people have in the UK care about there's been a
20:56
Speaker 2: lot of protests for them all standing up for australiallions
21:00
Speaker 2: women's right. So it's been very interesting to watch Roe.
21:03
Speaker 2: Before I let you go this one, I just found
21:06
Speaker 2: so remarkable Snowy Hydro two point zero billions of dollars
21:10
Speaker 2: over budget, years behind schedule, and then the Daily Telegraph
21:14
Speaker 2: for reporting today that three thousand dollars of tax payer
21:17
Speaker 2: money was used to pay an influencer to go and
21:20
Speaker 2: visit the project, and I just thought, does this not
21:23
Speaker 2: first LUSHO, how out of touch to government is. But
21:26
Speaker 2: they're more focused on let's sell the project, let's get
21:28
Speaker 2: an influencer out there, but let's not worry too much
21:30
Speaker 2: about actually delivering it.
21:32
Speaker 13: Yeah, I know, Jamie.
21:34
Speaker 12: And the unfortunate thing around politics just at this moment
21:39
Speaker 12: in time is it is around influencers, and it's become
21:44
Speaker 12: a massive marketing game and even more than it ever was.
21:49
Speaker 12: And the tials obviously during the last election used influences
21:55
Speaker 12: to great effect.
21:56
Speaker 13: And obviously Labor is looking at that playbook. Who I mean.
22:01
Speaker 12: The remarkable thing about Snowy Hydro is the costings for that.
22:05
Speaker 12: The final costings won't be done until the end of
22:08
Speaker 12: the year, but independent people are already saying it's probably
22:12
Speaker 12: going to be around the forty billion dollar mark when
22:15
Speaker 12: it was estimated to be around two billion. It's obviously
22:19
Speaker 12: an important storage and peaking power facility, but it's certainly
22:25
Speaker 12: not a base load power facility, and there's a strong
22:29
Speaker 12: argument to suggest that maybe this should have been diversified
22:32
Speaker 12: into some.
22:33
Speaker 13: Other battery innovation.
22:36
Speaker 12: But while we're on batteries as well, Jamie, that was
22:40
Speaker 12: said in the last election by this labor Albanese government
22:43
Speaker 12: that investment in batteries would be about two billion. I
22:47
Speaker 12: think Chris Bowen said it his last estimate it's going
22:50
Speaker 12: to be over seven billion.
22:51
Speaker 13: So you can see how.
22:53
Speaker 12: There's a lack of rigor around costing for all these projects,
22:58
Speaker 12: and of course that's then explaining why we've now got
23:02
Speaker 12: this enormous tax grabbed by this government.
23:05
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's an absolute mess.
23:07
Speaker 2: That snowy Hydro two point zero Carolye and Roe, thank
23:10
Speaker 2: you so much.
23:12
Speaker 5: Well, it's been another big day in Parliament.
23:14
Speaker 2: Before Minister's head off on the winter breaks, let's bring
23:17
Speaker 2: in now Shadow Minister for Energy Dan Tean Dan. I
23:22
Speaker 2: was watching question time today and there were some fiery
23:26
Speaker 2: interactions and one of those in particular was with Tony
23:30
Speaker 2: Burke and it was around illegal boats arriving on our
23:33
Speaker 2: shores last night with about twelve people on board.
23:36
Speaker 5: Let's take a quick listen.
23:38
Speaker 4: I am proud of our authorities when they intercept drugs
23:43
Speaker 4: those opposites. So your drug interception, so your drug interception
23:47
Speaker 4: is a problem for our authorities.
23:49
Speaker 16: You get a.
23:50
Speaker 4: Sense of the letter members of MARS worn in that question,
23:54
Speaker 4: a level of the level of aggression from those who
23:57
Speaker 4: want to harm our boarders and those who want to
23:59
Speaker 4: harm our country. And I am proud of Australian Border Force.
24:04
Speaker 4: This character, this character, this leader of the opposition, the
24:08
Speaker 4: guy who wants to bring all three right wing parties
24:11
Speaker 4: together order.
24:13
Speaker 2: I mean, you were having to go up there quite
24:15
Speaker 2: a few times to get questions to be actually answered
24:19
Speaker 2: or reframed. And I just was watching that and I thought,
24:22
Speaker 2: what does that tell all of us about our border
24:25
Speaker 2: security and what's happening to toughen it up.
24:30
Speaker 16: Yeah, so Jamie, absolutely right.
24:32
Speaker 17: There were two things which happened today in the Parliament
24:36
Speaker 17: that well worth mentioning.
24:38
Speaker 16: To your viewers who didn't get to see it. The
24:40
Speaker 16: first was Tony Burke.
24:42
Speaker 17: We asked him about what is happening to our borders
24:46
Speaker 17: in the North, because what we've had happened is we've
24:49
Speaker 17: had our Australian Border Force officials who do a great job,
24:54
Speaker 17: they've been fired on by people using AK forty sevens.
25:00
Speaker 17: I've seen drugs make their way to our coastline and
25:05
Speaker 17: end up in our cities before that's been detected. And
25:10
Speaker 17: then more recently we've had a boat arrive and literally
25:15
Speaker 17: those boat arrivals, they made it to the pub, they
25:19
Speaker 17: bought some dim sims and had a beer. And so
25:23
Speaker 17: we asked Tony Burke, quite rightly today, and especially given
25:26
Speaker 17: his previous record as a Immigration minister when he really
25:31
Speaker 17: opened the floodgates, is what has happened to border security
25:35
Speaker 17: in the last four years, given all these things have happened.
25:39
Speaker 17: And then we had Pat Conroy, that Defense Industry Minister,
25:44
Speaker 17: having said it the National Press Club that Sir Robert
25:47
Speaker 17: Menzies was a Nazi, a peaser, and so we censured
25:53
Speaker 17: him in the Parliament also, and the sad reality was
25:58
Speaker 17: Labor opposed that sens motion. And not only that, we
26:02
Speaker 17: had Tim Watts, the Member Victorian Member of Parliament who
26:08
Speaker 17: basically yelled out and had to withdraw that Mensi, Sir
26:12
Speaker 17: Robert Menzi's.
26:13
Speaker 16: Was a coward.
26:15
Speaker 17: So the Labor Party have shown on a policy front
26:18
Speaker 17: they cannot get their act together and the borders are
26:22
Speaker 17: not secure now in the North and then they're happy
26:25
Speaker 17: to denigrate a Prime minister who has bipartisan respect in
26:31
Speaker 17: the most heenous way. And that that played out at
26:34
Speaker 17: Question time today just shows you how political and it's
26:39
Speaker 17: nothing but political this Labor government is.
26:44
Speaker 2: I wanted to get some clarification from you, just around
26:47
Speaker 2: the news that Chris Bowen is threatening some regulatory action
26:51
Speaker 2: against Energy Australia and this was because they failed to
26:54
Speaker 2: meet the deadline for his new solar sharer scheme and
26:59
Speaker 2: Energy Australia had said to them, we don't have enough time.
27:01
Speaker 2: It's not going to be available till September. But what
27:05
Speaker 2: did that say to you about the plan that mister
27:08
Speaker 2: Bowen had put in place.
27:09
Speaker 5: It just comes across a little bit disorganized.
27:13
Speaker 16: Well, Jamie, you're being very kind calling it a plan.
27:16
Speaker 17: Everything that Chris Bowen does is all about ideology. He
27:21
Speaker 17: doesn't care about the real world consequences and this has
27:25
Speaker 17: been another thing where this has been on display. He's
27:29
Speaker 17: sprouted this idea that he's going to provide free energy
27:34
Speaker 17: during the middle of the day, and of course it's
27:36
Speaker 17: backfired because nothing's free. Apart from the fact that Chris
27:41
Speaker 17: Bowen likes dishing out taxpayer money, in the end, someone
27:46
Speaker 17: has to pay for it, and that's what we're seeing happening.
27:49
Speaker 16: So power bills have gone through the roof.
27:51
Speaker 17: Chris Bowen is trying everything he can to compensate for that,
27:56
Speaker 17: but he just keeps making a bad situation worse and
27:58
Speaker 17: this is just.
27:59
Speaker 16: Another classic example of that.
28:02
Speaker 17: And the fact that he's had to call in the
28:05
Speaker 17: a Triple C to threaten companies because power prices continue.
28:10
Speaker 16: To go up just shows you just.
28:13
Speaker 17: What an absolute fraud Chris Bowene is. And you know,
28:18
Speaker 17: first of all, it was two hundred and seventy five
28:20
Speaker 17: dollars was going to come off your power bill, and
28:22
Speaker 17: now it was going to be this idea of free power. Well,
28:26
Speaker 17: you know, we all know nothing's free, and Chris Bononen's
28:29
Speaker 17: being found out again about it.
28:31
Speaker 2: Well, Dante and you and the Coalition have a very
28:34
Speaker 2: big job ahead to keep labor to account. I do
28:37
Speaker 2: appreciate your time tonight. Well after the break, Defense Industry
28:41
Speaker 2: Minister Pat Conroy says our defense systems are no longer
28:44
Speaker 2: fit for purpose, and later the IRBA says the housing
28:48
Speaker 2: market is cooling faster than expected. What does this mean
28:52
Speaker 2: for our economy? Welcome back, it's great to have your company.
29:00
Speaker 2: Defense Industry Minister Pat Conroy used a National Press Club
29:04
Speaker 2: address today to argue Australia's defense systems are no longer
29:07
Speaker 2: fit for purpose. He said the world has changed dramatically,
29:11
Speaker 2: but the way defense operates has not kept pace, while
29:15
Speaker 2: at the same time, Labor is trying to hold the
29:17
Speaker 2: line on Orcus despite grassroots members pushing for the party
29:22
Speaker 2: to rethink the submarine deal. Well for Former Army Director
29:26
Speaker 2: General Brigadier Ian Langford joins me. Now and Ian, let's
29:30
Speaker 2: start with that speech at the National Press Club today
29:33
Speaker 2: where the Minister has said our defense systems are outdated
29:38
Speaker 2: over the last decade.
29:39
Speaker 5: Let's take a listen.
29:41
Speaker 16: Systems we've been working with a no longer fit for purpose.
29:45
Speaker 18: The fact is these systems were designed for a very
29:48
Speaker 18: different world.
29:51
Speaker 2: Do you agree, Ian, with the way that defense operates
29:55
Speaker 2: is now outdated and does need to have a refresh.
29:59
Speaker 19: Well, thanks for having us on your show. I think
30:01
Speaker 19: the admission from the Minister today that the defense acquisition
30:06
Speaker 19: system is in the reform is a significant announcement, I
30:09
Speaker 19: think by his own admission, for too long defense has
30:13
Speaker 19: been focused on the requirements and the submission setting phase
30:17
Speaker 19: of the equipment delivery cycle, and there hasn't been enough
30:20
Speaker 19: focus on delivery and outcomes. When we think about some
30:24
Speaker 19: of the challenges in places like sovereign shipbuilding and guide
30:27
Speaker 19: of weapons and orcus, we can see that the government
30:31
Speaker 19: is now making efforts, like the Americans and the British
30:34
Speaker 19: to reform their acquisition systems so that they can keep
30:37
Speaker 19: pace with the changing international operating environment, the changing character
30:41
Speaker 19: of the threat, and of course be able to provide
30:43
Speaker 19: those other dividends in the form of skills, industry and
30:47
Speaker 19: jobs that it's looking to do to extract every bit
30:50
Speaker 19: of value out of defense dollar.
30:51
Speaker 16: That it can.
30:52
Speaker 2: And one of the announcements that came out today does
30:55
Speaker 2: see the merger of three divisions, and you were just
30:57
Speaker 2: mentioning there about weapons and ship building and overall capability,
31:02
Speaker 2: So those three divisions are now going to be under
31:04
Speaker 2: one unified leadership structure. Do you have concerns though, that
31:09
Speaker 2: we're going to probably lose a bit of lack of
31:11
Speaker 2: personnel under this merger or is it the right move
31:13
Speaker 2: to consolidate it all.
31:15
Speaker 19: Well, it's very interesting because the new delivery agency will
31:19
Speaker 19: report directly to the Minister Males. It won't report to
31:22
Speaker 19: the Secretary, it won't report to the Chief of the
31:24
Speaker 19: Defense Force. So what we're seeing is unification as you say,
31:28
Speaker 19: shipbuilding guide of weapons and delivery, but reporting to a
31:32
Speaker 19: minister directly, which will sit in parallel to the rest
31:35
Speaker 19: of the department. So it remains to be seen how
31:37
Speaker 19: effective that level of minister or oversight can have on
31:41
Speaker 19: the bottom line in terms of delivery of capability, but
31:44
Speaker 19: it is clear that the government's see to make this
31:46
Speaker 19: a priority. I would also point out today that the
31:49
Speaker 19: minister's speech was more ideological than technical, and obviously this
31:53
Speaker 19: notion around what he terms progressive patriotism relates not only
31:57
Speaker 19: to defense acquisition, but the social life sence of the
32:01
Speaker 19: defense budget as it relates to particularly the ALP membership
32:05
Speaker 19: in the Australian public at large.
32:07
Speaker 2: Before I let you go, I do want to get
32:09
Speaker 2: your thoughts around reports where grassroots Labor members want the
32:14
Speaker 2: party to rethink ORCUS. Now the leadership, they all seem
32:17
Speaker 2: determined to keep the policy as is front of mine
32:20
Speaker 2: in place. From a national security perspective, how important is
32:25
Speaker 2: it that Australia remains committed to ORCUS.
32:29
Speaker 16: Very important.
32:30
Speaker 19: We've got thirty plus years of delivery as it relates
32:34
Speaker 19: to Australia's future undersea capability and critical deterrence, and the
32:38
Speaker 19: issue of social license and public support for UCUS is
32:43
Speaker 19: as fundamental as the delivery of the submarines themselves. So
32:45
Speaker 19: the ALP National Conference will debate. Aucas the ALP Caucus
32:50
Speaker 19: and the Government clearly support the policy, but what's important
32:54
Speaker 19: is the broader public discourse about how important this capability
32:57
Speaker 19: is for the future defense of Australia. This is just
33:00
Speaker 19: more than ideological. This goes to defense policy at its heart,
33:04
Speaker 19: and we will see over the coming weeks just how
33:06
Speaker 19: to resolve the government is to make sure that it
33:09
Speaker 19: remains a priority.
33:10
Speaker 16: As it should be.
33:11
Speaker 2: Well and I appreciate your insights tonight, thanks for joining me.
33:15
Speaker 2: Well after the break, the RBA says the housing market
33:18
Speaker 2: is cooling faster than expected, So what does this mean
33:21
Speaker 2: for our economy?
33:23
Speaker 5: Plus what is supermarket giant Cole's buying welcome back.
33:33
Speaker 2: Well, let's turn to the housing market now, because there
33:35
Speaker 2: are some warning signs beginning to emerge. The RBA says
33:39
Speaker 2: the market it's cooling faster than expected, with loan applications
33:43
Speaker 2: falling and reports that investor lending has dropped sharply. The
33:47
Speaker 2: government's argument is these changes are making it easier for
33:49
Speaker 2: first time buyers to compete, but critics warn that if
33:52
Speaker 2: you discourage investors too much, you risk reducing housing supply.
33:56
Speaker 2: It's time to bring in AMP Chief economist Shane Oliver, Shane,
34:00
Speaker 2: it's great to see you. Let's start with the Reserve Bank.
34:05
Speaker 2: They've highlighted that labors housing tax changes as one of
34:10
Speaker 2: the reasons why the market is cooling more quickly than expected.
34:14
Speaker 2: What are the risks that these reforms will discourage investment
34:19
Speaker 2: and the flow on effects to the greater economy.
34:23
Speaker 18: That's certainly a big risk, and even the budget papers
34:26
Speaker 18: released back in May highlighted the Treasury expected that the
34:30
Speaker 18: tax changes in relation to investors would on balance reduce
34:35
Speaker 18: housing supply by about thirty five thousand dwellings over the
34:38
Speaker 18: next ten years. I mean, obviously that's a bit of
34:41
Speaker 18: a guestimate. Could be a lot worse than that. But
34:42
Speaker 18: the bottom line is that even though negative gearing still
34:46
Speaker 18: applies to new bills, that definition of new builds is
34:50
Speaker 18: quite narrow. More importantly, there will be less investors in
34:54
Speaker 18: the system because the tax incentives work against them. Don't
34:57
Speaker 18: forget a new build will eventually become an old build
35:00
Speaker 18: and it won't be subject to needative gearing benefits. So
35:03
Speaker 18: as a result of less investors in the system, that
35:06
Speaker 18: can mean over time a lower supply of housing. So
35:10
Speaker 18: you can end up with a situation where you may
35:12
Speaker 18: get lower prices at least that's what we're seeing right now.
35:17
Speaker 18: Our bet it's just the fleck off the top, but
35:18
Speaker 18: you end up with higher rents and you still have
35:21
Speaker 18: housing shortage in the country.
35:23
Speaker 2: I want to turn our focus now to super funds.
35:26
Speaker 2: They release their annual returns for the past financial year.
35:30
Speaker 2: Does it look as though it's strong for now?
35:34
Speaker 16: Well, it certainly does.
35:34
Speaker 18: Those returns have been quite solid, and I think over
35:37
Speaker 18: the last five years they've been pretty good. I think
35:39
Speaker 18: we've almost had three years in a row of returns
35:42
Speaker 18: circling around the ten percent nine ten percent.
35:45
Speaker 16: Sort of number.
35:46
Speaker 18: And obviously the Ausie share market didn't perform fantastically well
35:50
Speaker 18: over the last felve months. I think it returned around
35:52
Speaker 18: six and a half percent with dividends and added in there.
35:56
Speaker 18: But global shares returned. I think the US was about
35:59
Speaker 18: eighteen percent in capital growth alone. Once you add in dividends,
36:02
Speaker 18: it pushes up towards twenty percent. Similar story for European shares,
36:06
Speaker 18: even more for Japanese shares. So fantastic returns out of
36:09
Speaker 18: global shares, partly on the back of enthusiasm for AI
36:12
Speaker 18: and its benefit for the broader economy. So that's what's
36:16
Speaker 18: held returns up. I guess it's always a question mark
36:18
Speaker 18: will that be sustained or not. But my view is
36:21
Speaker 18: unless you can see a recession on the horizon, then
36:25
Speaker 18: odds markets will continue to generally trend up. You'll get
36:28
Speaker 18: volatility like we saw after the war, starting with Iran,
36:33
Speaker 18: and like we saw last year in relation to the
36:34
Speaker 18: tariffs initially, but the broad trend remains up and I
36:37
Speaker 18: still don't see a recession on the horizon, particularly in
36:40
Speaker 18: the US. That's very important, but also we don't see
36:43
Speaker 18: a recession in Australia. Our beet growth will slow down
36:46
Speaker 18: a bit, so therefore those returns probably remain okay at
36:49
Speaker 18: least for the next six to twelve months.
36:52
Speaker 2: Shane, I wanted to get your thoughts on an acquisition
36:55
Speaker 2: that I saw today and it's Cole who This seems
36:59
Speaker 2: to be an odd purchase, but they are looking to
37:02
Speaker 2: take over pet Barn. What do you make of this
37:05
Speaker 2: and but what it's going to do to the overall
37:07
Speaker 2: landscape in particular with that Woolworths versus Coals, Well, to some.
37:13
Speaker 18: Degree they're following Wilworst because a couple of years back
37:15
Speaker 18: in twenty twenty four, Woolworth Board a share in the
37:19
Speaker 18: parent company fifty five percent share in the parent company
37:21
Speaker 18: of pet Stock, which of course is the key competitor
37:25
Speaker 18: to pet Barn, and so to some degree they're following
37:28
Speaker 18: each other.
37:29
Speaker 16: Into the pet business. Pet business is.
37:31
Speaker 18: Growing very strongly as more and more people get dogs,
37:34
Speaker 18: particularly starting at the time of the pandemic, and that
37:36
Speaker 18: seems to have continued. They do stop certain pet items
37:41
Speaker 18: in their supermarkets, but it's relatively narrow so I guess
37:44
Speaker 18: their reasoning is that they're going into a strong growth
37:47
Speaker 18: area of the Aussie economy. But we've said in the
37:50
Speaker 18: past that some of these bets don't always pay off
37:53
Speaker 18: with liquor.
37:54
Speaker 16: Arguably it did.
37:56
Speaker 18: I think it's been mixed to some degree with service
37:58
Speaker 18: stations petal stakes. So we'll tell whether this one will work.
38:03
Speaker 18: But it is fairly expensive. But I think it's four
38:05
Speaker 18: billion dollars I've read and basically if you're purchasing pet
38:09
Speaker 18: bar and you're looking at two hundred and sixty seven
38:11
Speaker 18: stores around Australia, So I mean, in some ways some
38:15
Speaker 18: might see that as as a bit of a barrier
38:17
Speaker 18: to competition, but you're still going to have those two
38:21
Speaker 18: major pet stores out there, Petstock and pet Bar, and
38:24
Speaker 18: they'll still be competing.
38:25
Speaker 16: With each other.
38:26
Speaker 5: Shane, it's always great speaking with you. Chat to you soon. Well,
38:30
Speaker 5: first it was the billboards. Now it's the tennis court.
38:33
Speaker 2: Founder of mortgage broker, It's simple Finance. Joseph Dowd made
38:37
Speaker 2: headlines with his anti ambition tax campaign and last night
38:41
Speaker 2: paid sixteen five hundred dollars for the chance to take
38:44
Speaker 2: on Anthony alban Easy and perhaps also have a few
38:47
Speaker 2: words with him as well. It's the time to bring
38:49
Speaker 2: in now Joseph Dowd and Joseph, you look like you're
38:53
Speaker 2: ready to already hit the court. You're tall there. The season, Well,
38:57
Speaker 2: your tornament of the Prime Minister is going to continue.
39:00
Speaker 2: You tell us about this auction prize that you won
39:02
Speaker 2: last night.
39:04
Speaker 7: Last night the government was celebrating, then went to ball,
39:09
Speaker 7: and as we all know, there's always an auction for charity.
39:12
Speaker 7: I found out about the ball a couple days ago
39:14
Speaker 7: and I saw that one of the grand prizers was
39:16
Speaker 7: a tennis match with the Prime Minister. I was so
39:19
Speaker 7: excited to be able to contribute, but also be able
39:23
Speaker 7: to get that private time with the Prime Minister because
39:26
Speaker 7: seems like a lot of our questions are still unanswered,
39:29
Speaker 7: and what better way The thrill gave tat us.
39:32
Speaker 2: Well, Joseph, I know you're trying very hard to get
39:35
Speaker 2: the government to hear your concerns about their tax changes.
39:38
Speaker 2: The Prime Minister was actually asked about you in question
39:41
Speaker 2: time today. Here is his response.
39:44
Speaker 20: If it's a choice between someone who's in the sector
39:47
Speaker 20: somewhere and who's got enough money to buy billboards and
39:51
Speaker 20: spend all this or first home buyers struggling.
39:57
Speaker 13: I'm for the first.
39:58
Speaker 2: Time I heard those comments and I thought, oh, this
40:03
Speaker 2: is going to be game on. Joseph is going to
40:05
Speaker 2: be going very hard on that tennis court. But what
40:08
Speaker 2: do you say when you hear that Anthony ALBINIZI is
40:11
Speaker 2: able to deflect on his performance because of what you
40:14
Speaker 2: did last night?
40:16
Speaker 7: He's saying this is for first home buyers. How is
40:19
Speaker 7: taxing Pokemon cards more better for first home buyers? How
40:23
Speaker 7: did the increase of supply of housing? No one knows.
40:27
Speaker 7: If you opened a booster packet, pull out a rare card,
40:30
Speaker 7: sell that for X amount of dollars, you're going to
40:32
Speaker 7: be charged forty seven percent. I sort of know how
40:35
Speaker 7: that's going to assist first home buyers at increase housing supply.
40:39
Speaker 7: So I'm going to have ninety minutes on the court
40:41
Speaker 7: with him to discuss all of this, and I can't wait.
40:44
Speaker 2: And you also get to take two other people with
40:46
Speaker 2: you as well. Are you going to take your friends
40:48
Speaker 2: along with you or your business partners and all three
40:51
Speaker 2: other people?
40:52
Speaker 13: Oh?
40:52
Speaker 5: Three other people. There's four of you up against Alvo.
40:56
Speaker 7: Apparently we get to go three with a group of four. Now,
41:01
Speaker 7: a lot of people have asked me to come with
41:03
Speaker 7: you know, a lot of industry experts, a lot of
41:05
Speaker 7: people that have been loud about the budget as well.
41:08
Speaker 7: A lot of people that just want to ask the
41:10
Speaker 7: Prime Minister a couple of questions. We haven't decided. We
41:13
Speaker 7: are still in consultation. We might change our position, but
41:17
Speaker 7: there will be four of us on the day.
41:20
Speaker 5: Well, Joseph, you're always very entertaining. I tell you what.
41:23
Speaker 2: Now, Benezi is apparently very very good on the tennis court,
41:25
Speaker 2: so make sure you're out there practicing.
41:28
Speaker 16: Ah.
41:29
Speaker 7: I don't think he's that good, but we'll see on
41:31
Speaker 7: the day.
41:32
Speaker 5: Yes, you will. Thank you.
41:35
Speaker 2: After the break, US President Donald Trump says Iran's de
41:38
Speaker 2: nuclearization is moving along well, Plass. For the first time
41:42
Speaker 2: in decades, Russia may need to import fuel as shortages
41:46
Speaker 2: cause a political headache for Vladimir Putin.
41:53
Speaker 5: Welcome back.
41:54
Speaker 2: Let's get straight into tonight's international panel. Sky News contributor
41:58
Speaker 2: Kosher Gata and former Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chair
42:02
Speaker 2: Michael Danby. Great to see the two of you, Kosha.
42:05
Speaker 2: I'm going to start with you. With the US and Iran,
42:09
Speaker 2: they're reportedly establishing a communication channel, and this is to
42:12
Speaker 2: monitor any violations of their ceasefire agreement. But when you
42:16
Speaker 2: hear that, what do you think? This says about the
42:19
Speaker 2: peace talks.
42:23
Speaker 5: It just feels like more of the same.
42:25
Speaker 11: I hate to see it, but I think this is
42:27
Speaker 11: why I sort of the world is getting a little
42:30
Speaker 11: bit tired of it.
42:30
Speaker 5: Jamie.
42:31
Speaker 11: I have to say, we obviously want progress, We want
42:33
Speaker 11: a piece deal that sort of sticks. I can tell
42:36
Speaker 11: you domestically, people really want this whole situation wrapped up
42:39
Speaker 11: so that President Trump can focus on the midterms. But
42:42
Speaker 11: it feels like a very fragile situation. Of course, we
42:46
Speaker 11: get mixed messages from what's coming out of Tehran versus
42:48
Speaker 11: what comes out of President Trump's administration, but it feels like,
42:52
Speaker 11: hopefully things are moving in the right direction. I would
42:54
Speaker 11: put it that way, with a lot of caution, healthy
42:57
Speaker 11: caution put on it. And it is fragile, so any
43:00
Speaker 11: time it feels like we're just on a trigger wire.
43:02
Speaker 11: And as we just saw a couple of days ago,
43:05
Speaker 11: things can escalat and often have and probably will continue to.
43:10
Speaker 2: And Michael, one of those things appears to be nuclear.
43:13
Speaker 2: That's the central sticking point in this piece process. But
43:17
Speaker 2: President Trump has said that the denuclearization of Iran is
43:21
Speaker 2: moving along. Well, those are his words, but how much
43:24
Speaker 2: confidence should we have that Tehran is genuinely prepared to
43:28
Speaker 2: give up its nuclear ambitions none.
43:31
Speaker 21: At all, because it's an Islamist fanatic regime that believes
43:35
Speaker 21: in the coming of the Mahdi. That is the motivating
43:40
Speaker 21: thing that motivates the leaders of Iran. Look, the oil
43:46
Speaker 21: is flowing through the straits of Hormuz. It seems to
43:50
Speaker 21: be a managed conflict at the moment. And the uranium
43:54
Speaker 21: in rich uranium for the eleven atom bombs that they
43:56
Speaker 21: wanted to build is entombed in the plant in Ishafar
44:02
Speaker 21: now with American satellites. President Trump and JD. Vans have
44:05
Speaker 21: said they have an eye on it all the time.
44:09
Speaker 21: The Iranians can try and get it out, but I
44:12
Speaker 21: think in the meantime they go back to negotiations after
44:15
Speaker 21: the midterms, but I think Trump and even Dvance is
44:19
Speaker 21: going to return to them with a heavy hand.
44:22
Speaker 2: Kosha, Israel's defense minister, have said that Israeli forces they're
44:26
Speaker 2: going to remain in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. Can you
44:30
Speaker 2: see this stance impacting any peace talks between those nations.
44:37
Speaker 11: It's hard to see how it wouldn't. We do know
44:39
Speaker 11: that that has been a sticking point before it becomes
44:42
Speaker 11: sort of a cudgel, if you will, that is handed
44:45
Speaker 11: to Tearan that they can take and try to beat
44:47
Speaker 11: over the heads of the US negotiators because they know
44:50
Speaker 11: that this is an issue. Certainly domestically it has become
44:53
Speaker 11: a little bit of a dividing line, and they can
44:56
Speaker 11: deaving Tehran can exploit that to their advantage because it
44:59
Speaker 11: is a hot topic right now domestically, and also you know,
45:02
Speaker 11: they do keep saying that that has to be in scope.
45:05
Speaker 11: They want the US to quote get control of their
45:07
Speaker 11: junior partner unquote. They've used language like that. So that
45:11
Speaker 11: will continue. However, if the presence sort of remains within
45:14
Speaker 11: that construct and broadly constrained to the mission that Israel
45:20
Speaker 11: is after and doesn't escalate into something far more having
45:23
Speaker 11: too many more ripple effects outside of that, hopefully it
45:26
Speaker 11: will be managed. But it certainly is another complication in
45:29
Speaker 11: this region because it is not just about the straight
45:31
Speaker 11: or around. It is about the broader region, and the
45:34
Speaker 11: more pieces moving pieces you have, the more complicates the picture.
45:38
Speaker 2: Michael, I want to go to the US now, where
45:40
Speaker 2: the string of socialist victories continues. This time it was
45:44
Speaker 2: in Colorado for the first district House primary, and it
45:48
Speaker 2: was a socialist Democrat that bit a long time Democrat
45:52
Speaker 2: in Diana de Getty. And I just wanted to know
45:54
Speaker 2: what do you think the state of the Democrat parties
45:58
Speaker 2: right now where there seems to be this real between
46:01
Speaker 2: the traditional Democrats and the socialists.
46:04
Speaker 21: First, just Jamie quickly. There was also a peace treated
46:07
Speaker 21: negotiated between and cswire between Lebanon and Israelis last week too,
46:12
Speaker 21: which is a seriously good influence on the prospects there. Communists, Jamie,
46:19
Speaker 21: when they can't win in their own right, sometimes choose
46:22
Speaker 21: a policy what's called entryism, which means they enter the
46:26
Speaker 21: host of a larger political party. Imagine that horrifying film
46:30
Speaker 21: The Alien cast into political metaphor. So this is what's happening.
46:35
Speaker 21: They are a small group of extremists who are trying
46:38
Speaker 21: to take over the Democratic Party, and the fact that
46:41
Speaker 21: they've got such weak leaders as Chuck Schumer and others
46:45
Speaker 21: who haven't resisted them to date, this will become a
46:48
Speaker 21: bigger and bigger price, particularly if the Republicans can turn
46:52
Speaker 21: this into a national poll where people in the Midwest
46:57
Speaker 21: and all around the country vote in the midterms on
47:01
Speaker 21: these extremist politics and that will only help Trump and.
47:05
Speaker 2: The Republicans and Kosha just quickly before I'll let you
47:09
Speaker 2: both go. Russia has long been an energy superpower, but
47:12
Speaker 2: they're now facing fuel shortages, with reports they might need
47:15
Speaker 2: to start importing fuel. How significant is this development, but
47:19
Speaker 2: more so, what does this mean for Putin's grip on power?
47:24
Speaker 11: I think you'll optically, it was certainly a setback for
47:27
Speaker 11: him because the Ukrainians did make a dent. They've been
47:29
Speaker 11: trying to strike the old refineries for the better part
47:31
Speaker 11: of the last three years, and this one certainly went
47:33
Speaker 11: deeper and Russia wasn't able to repair it very quickly,
47:36
Speaker 11: so he has had to for the first time admit
47:39
Speaker 11: it publicly. Domestically, people are getting a little bit nervous,
47:42
Speaker 11: but I think by and large, this war remains a
47:44
Speaker 11: war of attrition. Russia is in it for the long haul,
47:47
Speaker 11: and I don't think it'll change the trajectory. This one
47:50
Speaker 11: event significantly of this drawn out, protracted war, but it
47:53
Speaker 11: has set him back certainly in the current news.
47:56
Speaker 2: Cycle, Michael, what do you make of those developments?
48:00
Speaker 5: And just recently said that they were struggling.
48:03
Speaker 21: I think Russia may collapse overnight. Fort of Russian oil
48:09
Speaker 21: refineries and chemical plants have been taken out by Ukrainian drones.
48:13
Speaker 21: Ukrainians have the most advanced military technology in the world,
48:17
Speaker 21: which Australia should learn from, which the Arab Gulf countries
48:21
Speaker 21: obviously needed during this current conflict, and the Ukrainians have
48:26
Speaker 21: the strongest army in Europe. Those poor people have endured
48:30
Speaker 21: so much with all their civilian sites being hit for
48:34
Speaker 21: five years.
48:35
Speaker 5: Jamie, they certainly have.
48:37
Speaker 2: Michael, and I do appreciate all of your insights and
48:40
Speaker 2: koshergata as well. It is now time for the Bolt Report.
48:43
Speaker 2: I'll be back Sunday at seven o'clock