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Fed, Labor, and Real Estate · Bloomberg Intelligence

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside
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Speaker 2: All right, so we're here at the Bloomberg Sustainable Business
0:54
Speaker 2: sum A part of that is financial inclusions. To find
0:58
Speaker 2: what financial inclusion is, how we measured Kara who Canson
1:02
Speaker 2: joins a senior vice president and head of workplace Benefits
1:05
Speaker 2: at Benefits and Protection Principle. Kara, thanks so much for
1:09
Speaker 2: joining us.
1:09
Speaker 3: Here.
1:09
Speaker 2: We appreciate you coming here to Bloomberg. What is financial
1:13
Speaker 2: inclusion and how do you measure it?
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Speaker 4: So, financial inclusion is about giving more people access to tools, products,
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Speaker 4: services that enable them to ultimately the goal is achieve
1:30
Speaker 4: financial security, and so making sure that a much broader
1:34
Speaker 4: group than today has access to all that they need
1:38
Speaker 4: in order to make those decisions and achieve financial success.
1:43
Speaker 4: You know, it is partly about measuring the access the
1:46
Speaker 4: number of people that do have access to those products
1:50
Speaker 4: and services, but then it's also about their degree of
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Speaker 4: comfort and security long term, which is a bit subjective
1:59
Speaker 4: because that's going to look different for everybody. But we
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Speaker 4: have a huge opportunity ahead of us to make sure
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Speaker 4: that just that access is taken care of. Principle created
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Speaker 4: an index called the Global Financial Inclusion Index last year.
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Speaker 4: We just this week released our second edition of that
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Speaker 4: and it measures financial inclusion across forty.
2:19
Speaker 1: Two different markets, markets in terms of countries.
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Speaker 4: Countries, forty two different countries, and really looks at the
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Speaker 4: role of three pillars in each of those countries, the government,
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Speaker 4: the financial system itself, and the role of employers. And
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Speaker 4: so we can measure each of those pillars by country
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Speaker 4: and then aggregate that to determine kind of relativeness around
2:43
Speaker 4: financial inclusion. One of the things that this year's particular
2:48
Speaker 4: index showed is that those countries that are making the
2:51
Speaker 4: biggest progress in terms of financial inclusion are the ones
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Speaker 4: that are making investments to digitally enable access us to
3:00
Speaker 4: products and services think mobile banking, real time payments, those
3:05
Speaker 4: types of solutions, which inherently because so many of us
3:09
Speaker 4: and an ever greater percentage every day, have access to
3:12
Speaker 4: those computers we hold in our hands, and so that's
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Speaker 4: a really important component of financial inclusion, the tools at
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Speaker 4: people's fingertips.
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Speaker 1: So I imagine we were just talking about holistic systems,
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Speaker 1: and this isn't something that you're doing because necessarily you
3:30
Speaker 1: feel sorry for the people who aren't included. It's not
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Speaker 1: about charity, right, I mean, in some senses maybe, but
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Speaker 1: really it should be good for the entire society if
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Speaker 1: you include more people. So do you see a correlation
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Speaker 1: between those markets that are more financially inclusive and say,
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Speaker 1: you know, stronger more sustainable growth.
3:51
Speaker 4: Absolutely? So great, astute question. So not only did we
3:54
Speaker 4: develop this index, but beyond that, we compare that index
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Speaker 4: to different indicators of overall economic progress, and there is
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Speaker 4: a strong correlation there. Countries that have greater financial inclusion
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Speaker 4: are more resilient, whether it's resilience to climate change, whether
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Speaker 4: it's resilience to geopolitical risks. They ultimately are more ethical
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Speaker 4: economies and that leads to happier, more excuse me, more
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Speaker 4: food secure individuals, and brighter prospects for the future.
4:32
Speaker 2: How does the US rank on your index?
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Speaker 4: So the US actually currently ranks number four, sure, four.
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Speaker 4: We actually dropped a couple of spots from last year's rankings,
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Speaker 4: and there were a variety of factors that went into that,
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Speaker 4: one of which is, you know, just consumer sentiment is
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Speaker 4: an underlying consideration in this research, and consumer sentiment is
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Speaker 4: changing given you know, all the different factors, whether it's
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Speaker 4: the economy and concerns related to that, politics, the news cycle,
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Speaker 4: all of that feeding into overall consumer sentiment.
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Speaker 2: Who's number one?
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Speaker 4: Yeah, Singapore is number one. Surprised, Yes, very strong and
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Speaker 4: on all three.
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Speaker 1: Pillars, so much easier though it's almost unfair, right, I
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Speaker 1: mean it's a much smaller market, it is, Yeah.
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Speaker 4: But there's also been a lot of intentionality around how
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Speaker 4: those three different pillars all pull their own weight in
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Speaker 4: order to create a very financially inclusive.
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Speaker 1: And they have I think a much. I mean, it's
5:31
Speaker 1: easier with a centrally controlled economy, right, It's probably more
5:35
Speaker 1: difficult with totally chaotic and broken democracy like they have
5:41
Speaker 1: here in the US.
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Speaker 4: There are definitely different sets of challenges when not all
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Speaker 4: the ores are rowing in the same direction.
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Speaker 2: What are some of the countries that are, you know,
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Speaker 2: maybe making big gains or maybe have some real challenges.
5:52
Speaker 4: In front of them, you know, I would say back
5:55
Speaker 4: to the comments around you know, digitally enabling, you know,
5:59
Speaker 4: place is like Taiwan and Vietnam are making some pretty
6:03
Speaker 4: significant gains because of the infrastructure investments that they are
6:06
Speaker 4: making to enable their citizens to access financial products and services,
6:12
Speaker 4: and beyond that, it's also the education that goes with
6:17
Speaker 4: the use of those products and services.
6:19
Speaker 1: Are there any big laggards that surprised you, any countries
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Speaker 1: that you think should be making more headway.
6:24
Speaker 4: Not specifically country by country. I think, you know, it's
6:27
Speaker 4: probably not a surprise that developed markets that have more
6:31
Speaker 4: resources to support their citizens generally rank higher on the index,
6:36
Speaker 4: and you know, emerging markets tend to fall lower on
6:41
Speaker 4: the index. But again, the digital component and investing in
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Speaker 4: infrastructure to support digitization is really key, and those countries
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Speaker 4: doing that are making the most progress year over year.
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Speaker 2: I bet for women, I'm not sure if it's just
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Speaker 2: us or just kind of what generally your findings are women?
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Speaker 2: Do they feel more or less inclusive relative that maybe
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Speaker 2: the general population?
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Speaker 4: Sure, So the short answer to that is they feel
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Speaker 4: less included, they have less less confidence, and their perceptions
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Speaker 4: around money management and investing are are different than men.
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Speaker 4: This is there's recent research that principal did with her
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Speaker 4: money that just reaffirm that. I think there's very few
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Speaker 4: people that would say they wouldn't benefit from additional education
7:28
Speaker 4: and advice, but in particular, women will significantly benefit.
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Speaker 2: Well, here's a good little story just from yesterday. I
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Speaker 2: had lunch with my twenty seven year old daughter. We
7:38
Speaker 2: spent most of lunch talking about investing, like she would,
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Speaker 2: you know, and you know, she's got that Marcus savings
7:44
Speaker 2: account and.
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Speaker 1: She's got a high interest rate there.
7:46
Speaker 2: Yeah, she's got a high interest rate there. She's just
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Speaker 2: kind of asking a lot of questions about kind of
7:50
Speaker 2: what to do, and you know that's great. Yeah, So
7:52
Speaker 2: I was like.
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Speaker 4: Nice, and she's listening to da.
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Speaker 1: Exactly exactly exactly, probably has a head start compared to
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Speaker 1: most other women in the world, though, right, That is.
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Speaker 4: Very, very true, and that often is one of the
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Speaker 4: issues is just this overwhelming feeling of where to start.
8:09
Speaker 4: They may you know, a lot of people don't have
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Speaker 4: a dad that can talk with them, you know, over
8:13
Speaker 4: a meal to you know, answer those questions. And if
8:16
Speaker 4: you do a search on whatever your browser of choices,
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Speaker 4: you know, the amount of information that is at someone's
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Speaker 4: fingertips doesn't make that process easier.
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Speaker 2: All right, Carols, thanks so much for joining us. Kiro
8:28
Speaker 2: really appreciate it. Caro Hugginson, she's a senior vice president
8:31
Speaker 2: and head of workplace benefits at the firm is principal
8:35
Speaker 2: correct correct, Awesome. So we got it there. So we're
8:37
Speaker 2: just talking about the financial inclusion. They've got a cool
8:40
Speaker 2: index there that kind of measures that the US is
8:43
Speaker 2: ranked num.
8:43
Speaker 1: Beerfore, we got a little work to do there, folks.
8:45
Speaker 1: Let's get out there and get it done.
8:47
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg.
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Speaker 5: You're listening to the Team Ken's live program Bloomberg Markets
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Speaker 5: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the
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Speaker 5: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app or listen on
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Speaker 5: a man wherever you get your podcast.
9:03
Speaker 2: We got sun beating down on us right coming through
9:06
Speaker 2: the window here at seven thirty one, like snab we
9:08
Speaker 2: should use it. We should perfect time. What a great
9:11
Speaker 2: solar panel. Let's put up a solar let's talk solar energy.
9:13
Speaker 2: Abigail Ross Cooper joins us. She's a president and CEO
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Speaker 2: of the Solar Energy Industries Association s E. I A
9:20
Speaker 2: for the folks in the note. Abigail, thanks for joining
9:23
Speaker 2: us here talk to us about solar energy. I gotta
9:27
Speaker 2: think it's a big beneficiary of the you know, the
9:32
Speaker 2: looking at the green transition. Yeah, the green transition, the
9:34
Speaker 2: inflation reduction.
9:35
Speaker 1: Right, We've seen peaks and troughs in terms of investor interests,
9:39
Speaker 1: but I'm sure the amount of panels out there just
9:42
Speaker 1: continues to grow to record after record.
9:45
Speaker 6: Yeah. I mean, first of all, it is hot right here. Yes,
9:48
Speaker 6: so let's just have a moment. It's working, okay, if
9:51
Speaker 6: anyone wonder, the technology.
9:52
Speaker 1: Works, the sun works, Global warming feels real.
9:56
Speaker 6: It's really real right now. Yeah, it is a ptty
10:00
Speaker 6: exciting time to be in the solar industry. Our projections
10:03
Speaker 6: tell us that this year our industry is going to
10:05
Speaker 6: grow by about fifty two percent, which you were talking
10:08
Speaker 6: about something growing in half as I was walking up here.
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Speaker 6: We're going to double, which is an exciting Uh, it's
10:13
Speaker 6: it's pretty.
10:14
Speaker 1: We were talking about thirty year treasuries. Yeah, typically a
10:17
Speaker 1: very safe investment. Yeah, it's been a over the last.
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Speaker 6: Three not not so exciting. So, yeah, solar is gonna
10:23
Speaker 6: uh the installations.
10:26
Speaker 1: What the backlash that Paul has been talking about. You know,
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Speaker 1: it's become a very political issue ESG in general, the
10:34
Speaker 1: pain transition obviously, and even though we probably see more
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Speaker 1: solar panels in Texas than anywhere else in the country,
10:42
Speaker 1: you've had, especially those people down south, like really pushing
10:46
Speaker 1: back against ESG.
10:47
Speaker 6: Yeah. So that's why you're never going to hear those
10:50
Speaker 6: letters or those come out of my mouth. But you
10:52
Speaker 6: know what you are going to hear come out of
10:53
Speaker 6: my mouth at lower prices. Yep, Because yes, it is
10:57
Speaker 6: true that California is the state with the most solar
11:00
Speaker 6: in the country.
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Speaker 1: Right now, California has more than Texas.
11:02
Speaker 6: Texas and Florida are two and three, and over the
11:06
Speaker 6: course of the next few years, it's really a race for
11:08
Speaker 6: which one is going to be number one. Texas and
11:10
Speaker 6: Florida are not known for their big d politics, right,
11:13
Speaker 6: but what they are known for is wanting the lowest
11:16
Speaker 6: energy prices and competitive energy markets. And so that's really
11:19
Speaker 6: why people are going solar. And when I say people,
11:22
Speaker 6: I shouldn't say people, I should say customers. And customers
11:25
Speaker 6: are utilities, customers are corporations, and customers are homeowners, right,
11:29
Speaker 6: apartment owners, warehouse owners, utilities, co ops, kind of anyone
11:34
Speaker 6: that wants low energy prices, which is pretty much every
11:36
Speaker 6: person and every company in the United States talk to.
11:39
Speaker 2: Us about the efficiency of solar energy versus the other sources,
11:43
Speaker 2: and sure, and kind of how that I guess maybe
11:45
Speaker 2: the Eternal mind investment works.
11:47
Speaker 6: Yeah, So so you sort of ask two different questions,
11:51
Speaker 6: like breaking news, you guys, the sun does not shine
11:54
Speaker 6: twenty four hours a day, okay, And so if your
11:57
Speaker 6: only source of energy is you like unplug from the
12:01
Speaker 6: grid and you do not have any kind of backup power,
12:04
Speaker 6: not gonna have power twenty four hours a day. So
12:07
Speaker 6: you have two choices. You can either not unplug from
12:10
Speaker 6: the grid and rely on your electric distribution utility for
12:13
Speaker 6: the other hours of the day, or you can have
12:14
Speaker 6: a backup battery system, you can have some combination of those.
12:18
Speaker 6: So we talk about the efficiency or sort of the
12:21
Speaker 6: capacity factor of a solar system being about you know,
12:24
Speaker 6: somewhere between twenty and thirty percent. But that's like a
12:27
Speaker 6: known feature. That's not like shocking news. In terms of
12:31
Speaker 6: your investment. There's it's a payback period right like it's
12:35
Speaker 6: and it depends on what your energy prices are to
12:37
Speaker 6: the payback period. In a high where are we now
12:39
Speaker 6: New York, your energy prices are a tad bit higher
12:41
Speaker 6: than Wyoming, right or then South Dakota, and so your
12:45
Speaker 6: payback period is going to be shorter because your prices
12:48
Speaker 6: are higher than in those places. So it might be
12:50
Speaker 6: seven years here, it might be more years in a
12:54
Speaker 6: lower cost place. It depends a.
12:56
Speaker 1: Lot many years, is what the payback for you're talking about.
12:58
Speaker 1: I guess the average family putting solar on that if you.
13:01
Speaker 6: Put solar on your roof exactly, you know, lots of
13:04
Speaker 6: lots of factors, but that's around ish.
13:07
Speaker 1: But how power viewed versus wind nuclear gas.
13:13
Speaker 6: So so interesting. You know, you can't actually put wind
13:17
Speaker 6: usually on your home, and you can't have your personal
13:19
Speaker 6: nuke power.
13:20
Speaker 1: Right, So those you live in South Dakota.
13:24
Speaker 6: True, True, and you asked the SMR guys, right, they're
13:26
Speaker 6: going to tell you could have your own personal SMR.
13:30
Speaker 6: But so so solar is unique in that you can
13:33
Speaker 6: have your own like it's scalable in a way that
13:35
Speaker 6: a lot of other technologies are not. But utilities, right,
13:38
Speaker 6: they have a choice of different energy prices or energy technologies.
13:42
Speaker 6: Solar is the number one, number one new energy source
13:47
Speaker 6: in the country, and it has been for the last
13:49
Speaker 6: few years. So utilities that are putting on RFPs for
13:52
Speaker 6: new energy sources, oh sorry, requests for proposals. So they're saying, hey,
13:58
Speaker 6: you know, we have new load, we have new customers,
14:01
Speaker 6: we have new towns that are being built, we have
14:03
Speaker 6: new subdivisions, we have new electric vehicles. Like we are,
14:06
Speaker 6: we are retiring some assets. We need new capacity to
14:10
Speaker 6: fuel our system. So we got we were putting out
14:13
Speaker 6: a request of proposals to build some new electricity. So
14:17
Speaker 6: who's the best option? And they'll get a whole bunch
14:20
Speaker 6: of different proposals, and over and over they are choosing
14:24
Speaker 6: solar and building solar because it's the lowest price and
14:28
Speaker 6: it's making the most economic sense.
14:29
Speaker 1: Also, I guess it's easier in places like South Dakota
14:32
Speaker 1: or Texas right where there's just so much space. Right,
14:36
Speaker 1: You're not going to build a solar farm in Westchester County,
14:41
Speaker 1: for example, because everybody is like right next to the goodness,
14:43
Speaker 1: the Princeton campus for Bloomberg has a massive solar arrangement
14:48
Speaker 1: down there and everywhere. So does Dennis University's campus. Just
14:51
Speaker 1: looking at it Grandvillow.
14:53
Speaker 6: But but your version of massive.
14:56
Speaker 1: That's you're exactly exactly So do you still see growth
14:59
Speaker 1: in those big, massive solar farms.
15:02
Speaker 6: Yes, So the massive version in the West is like, uh,
15:08
Speaker 6: thousands of acres, thousands of acres. The massive version in
15:11
Speaker 6: west is some acres.
15:14
Speaker 2: All right, Abigail, thanks so much for joining us. Abigail
15:16
Speaker 2: Ross Hooper Hopper, Hopper, hop hopper.
15:18
Speaker 6: I got that.
15:19
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, I have to p's a typo here, uh,
15:21
Speaker 2: President and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association. Bring
15:25
Speaker 2: this up to date here on the powers of solar energy.
15:29
Speaker 2: We're gonna more coming up.
15:30
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg.
15:31
Speaker 5: You're listening to the tape Cat's are Live program Bloomberg
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15:50
Speaker 2: Let's take the discussion of interest rates over to the
15:52
Speaker 2: world of real estate. You can do that, Soma Hep,
15:55
Speaker 2: chief economist at core Logic. She can talk about to
15:58
Speaker 2: fed the rates and the real estate market in general. Selma,
16:02
Speaker 2: thanks so much for joining us. I just popped up
16:04
Speaker 2: on the Bloomberg terminal the Bank Greade thirty year fixed
16:07
Speaker 2: mortgage seven point eight eight percent.
16:11
Speaker 5: Wow.
16:11
Speaker 2: What does that mean for the residential real estate market?
16:16
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, unfortunately, housing market is really in a low.
16:21
Speaker 3: We're sitting on a bottom in many ways. When look
16:24
Speaker 3: at home sales activity, we're at the lowest that we've
16:27
Speaker 3: been since at least going back to year two thousand
16:29
Speaker 3: and what's even more sad is that we are lower
16:34
Speaker 3: than we were coming out of the Great Recession for
16:36
Speaker 3: the housing market, and that was a really low period
16:39
Speaker 3: for the housing market. In terms of mortgage activity too,
16:43
Speaker 3: we are at some forty year low, so we're really
16:46
Speaker 3: sitting at this bottom right now, trying to figure our
16:49
Speaker 3: way out. At least now in terms of home sales activity,
16:53
Speaker 3: what seems to be a little bit of a saving
16:56
Speaker 3: grace is that we do have a little bit more
16:58
Speaker 3: of cash sales going on. So cash share has been
17:02
Speaker 3: on a rise, and that's a function of you know,
17:05
Speaker 3: baby boomers having more equid in their homes and also
17:09
Speaker 3: to some extent more investors in the market, particularly smaller
17:13
Speaker 3: investors in the market. Also in international buyers seem to
17:17
Speaker 3: be back, so that's helping market a little bit. But
17:21
Speaker 3: nothing to rave about this point.
17:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, it's I guess we go back and
17:28
Speaker 2: look at the last thirty forty fifty years. A seven
17:30
Speaker 2: percent mortgage market is not the craziest thing. We've seen
17:33
Speaker 2: that many many times. But I guess the question here,
17:36
Speaker 2: or the issue here for a lot of folks is, boy,
17:38
Speaker 2: we moved up in mortgage rates from the really really quickly,
17:41
Speaker 2: more than doubling, you know, in the space of a year.
17:44
Speaker 2: That shock presumably will take some time for you know,
17:47
Speaker 2: kind of the market to absorb.
17:48
Speaker 3: I guess, yeah, absolutely, I think really for a lot
17:52
Speaker 3: of buyers it is the shock. I mean affordability, like
17:55
Speaker 3: I said, is at forty year low, but there are
17:56
Speaker 3: buyers out there, and there are buyers now even at
17:59
Speaker 3: the percent rate, you know, first time buyers for example,
18:03
Speaker 3: So there are folks out that there. They are very interesting.
18:05
Speaker 3: But you know, it's something we've talked a lot about before,
18:08
Speaker 3: is lack of inventory. So it's not even just the
18:11
Speaker 3: rates at this point, but you know, rates, higher rates
18:14
Speaker 3: are locking in potential sellers. Inventories at the lowest level
18:19
Speaker 3: we've seen historically, so really, you know, it's it's it's
18:22
Speaker 3: a quagmire. It's it's we're just you know, there's nothing
18:25
Speaker 3: it's something you know, at least we need to see
18:28
Speaker 3: a lower mortgage rate at some point for something to change.
18:34
Speaker 2: So you know, it's I kind of feel like the
18:37
Speaker 2: next issue that somebody has to get a handle on
18:40
Speaker 2: is what is the rate or is there a rate
18:42
Speaker 2: that kind of frees up the market, clears out the
18:44
Speaker 2: market that would make you know, it would be sellers say, okay, yes,
18:48
Speaker 2: I'm getting out of my three or four percent mortgage,
18:50
Speaker 2: but the rates are i don't know, five percent or
18:52
Speaker 2: six percent, so it's not that bad. Do you guys
18:55
Speaker 2: in the industry have a feeling like where interest rates
18:58
Speaker 2: have to go down to before we start to see
19:00
Speaker 2: some of these sellers come back into the market.
19:03
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think if we get back to about six percent,
19:06
Speaker 3: slightly below six percent, I mean that five handle is
19:09
Speaker 3: very magical in many ways, but even at six percent,
19:13
Speaker 3: I mean if you recall earlier this year when mortgage
19:16
Speaker 3: rates came down to six point two six point three,
19:18
Speaker 3: we had quite a bit of activity in a market
19:21
Speaker 3: and even more and inven inventory was picking up to
19:25
Speaker 3: some extent at that point. At this point we're just
19:27
Speaker 3: seeing nothing, you know. So I think it would really
19:29
Speaker 3: help to get richs down to six.
19:30
Speaker 2: Percent because I guess one of the questions is the
19:36
Speaker 2: new housing market give its just a sense of what percent? Like,
19:40
Speaker 2: how big is a new housing market? Can that deal
19:42
Speaker 2: with some of the demand out there? Where are we
19:46
Speaker 2: like new housing as percentage of total housing in terms
19:48
Speaker 2: of supply, right?
19:50
Speaker 3: I mean it has been increasing, especially now as existing
19:56
Speaker 3: home sales are frozen and inventory is frozen, So new
20:00
Speaker 3: home sales is a share of total sales have been
20:02
Speaker 3: on a rise historically. I think we've seen about eleven
20:05
Speaker 3: percent of sales being new home sales. Now we are
20:09
Speaker 3: closer to fifteen sixteen percent of home sales, new home
20:13
Speaker 3: sales contributing to overall sales activity. Now, the issue too
20:18
Speaker 3: at this point is that, you know, with mortgage atees
20:21
Speaker 3: approaching eight percent, now that's freezing new home market as well.
20:25
Speaker 3: And on the other hand, new home sales are really
20:28
Speaker 3: concentrated in parts of the country where the inventory issues
20:33
Speaker 3: are not as large. So, you know, so it's the
20:37
Speaker 3: other parts of the country that continue to suffer as
20:41
Speaker 3: a result of low inventory and higher mortgage rates.
20:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, because it seems like here in the Greater Metro
20:47
Speaker 2: area during the pandemic, we had a great exodus of
20:50
Speaker 2: people for you know, states like Texas and Florida and
20:53
Speaker 2: some of the other maybe Sun belt states. Is a
20:57
Speaker 2: supplied demand imbalance even more pronounced than some of the
21:00
Speaker 2: those faster growth market or are the new home builders
21:03
Speaker 2: kind of trying they're there meeting that demand?
21:06
Speaker 3: Well, I think they're ramping up. I'm not sure that
21:09
Speaker 3: they're necessarily meeting demand just simply given how many people
21:13
Speaker 3: are moving to those areas, but they're ramping up, and
21:16
Speaker 3: they are, you know, trying to And you know, one
21:19
Speaker 3: thing to keep in mind is that's it's less restrictive
21:22
Speaker 3: to building those areas and less costly, so they are
21:25
Speaker 3: in a sense providing that more affordable inventory and smaller
21:30
Speaker 3: homes and all these features that the incoming buyers are
21:35
Speaker 3: looking to looking for. So that is helping the market.
21:38
Speaker 3: But again I think overall, you know, we're still severely undersupplied.
21:43
Speaker 3: If you look at the existing homes for sale right
21:46
Speaker 3: for example, we are now at about a million, you know,
21:50
Speaker 3: it depends on a month. But to get in a
21:52
Speaker 3: more balanced market, we would need at least double that,
21:55
Speaker 3: at least one point eight million. Same thing for new
21:58
Speaker 3: home sales. I mean new homes are now below below
22:03
Speaker 3: about seven hundred thousand. I want to say we would
22:05
Speaker 3: need to at least increase that by fifty percent to
22:08
Speaker 3: get some relief in terms of pressure on home prices
22:13
Speaker 3: and overall affordability and just just better, better balanced housing market.
22:20
Speaker 2: All right, So let's let let's say I'm able to
22:22
Speaker 2: stomach the seven to eight thirty year fixed mortgage. If
22:26
Speaker 2: I go into my bank or my mortgage worker, can.
22:28
Speaker 3: I get a loan? Here?
22:30
Speaker 2: Can I get a mortgage? Well?
22:32
Speaker 3: I think so, I mean, I think the lenders are
22:35
Speaker 3: really trying to get buyers in. At this point, given
22:38
Speaker 3: just how many have fallen out with higher mortgage rates,
22:41
Speaker 3: it sounds like income qualifying incomes are now an issue
22:46
Speaker 3: because of debt to income ratio, given how much higher
22:49
Speaker 3: the mortgage rates are. But I mean, you know, lenders
22:52
Speaker 3: are being innovative. They are trying to find ways to
22:57
Speaker 3: qualify folks, you know, and for sample, in a new
23:00
Speaker 3: home market, there is still a lot of homebuilders and
23:04
Speaker 3: developers that are offering mortgage rate buydown programs, which is
23:08
Speaker 3: helping with that affordability at least in the first couple
23:11
Speaker 3: of years of home ownership.
23:15
Speaker 2: All Right, So I guess talk to us about the
23:18
Speaker 2: rental market then, I mean, if I decide I can't
23:21
Speaker 2: really stomach of seven or eight percent mortgage, I got
23:23
Speaker 2: to continue to rent or go out and rent versus
23:25
Speaker 2: buy is what we see in the rental market, right.
23:29
Speaker 3: I mean, there's two different stores in a rental market.
23:31
Speaker 3: There is a single family rental market and there is
23:33
Speaker 3: a multi family rental market. And we've seen quite a
23:36
Speaker 3: bit of a new construction going on in multifamily on
23:39
Speaker 3: a multi family side, which is putting pressure lower on
23:44
Speaker 3: rent increases. And in some markets we have now at
23:48
Speaker 3: this point seen decline in rents, especially in these markets
23:51
Speaker 3: that were really high growth, high rent growth during the pandemic.
23:55
Speaker 3: You know, think of Austin, Phoenix, Vegas. Uh, this is
23:59
Speaker 3: really Miami for example. This is really high growth markets
24:02
Speaker 3: during the pandemic. But on a single family side, we
24:05
Speaker 3: are seeing rents plateau, rent growth at least plateau. And
24:09
Speaker 3: actually the markets where we are seeing a lot of
24:12
Speaker 3: increases in rent or relatively higher increase in rent growth.
24:16
Speaker 3: Are these Midwest more affordable you know, sort of easy
24:20
Speaker 3: as it goes kind of markets seeing loos for example,
24:23
Speaker 3: tops are lists, you know, so it's it's different dynamics
24:28
Speaker 3: going on, but people definitely who cannot afford our pivoting
24:31
Speaker 3: to single family rental markets.
24:35
Speaker 2: Hey Sam, thank you, thanks so much for joining us.
24:37
Speaker 2: Really appreciate it. Soma Help, chief economist at Core Longa
24:40
Speaker 2: talking about the real estate business.
24:42
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can
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Speaker 1: at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three and on Faul Sweeney.
24:56
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24:59
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