Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Chuck’s Commentary - Kristi Noem Should Be Fired…But Will She? + If Iowa Goes Blue, Republicans Are COOKED

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Chuck’s Commentary - Kristi Noem Should Be Fired…But Will She? + If Iowa Goes Blue, Republicans Are COOKED · The Chuck ToddCast

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Speaker 1: Happy Wednesday, and welcome to another episode of the check podcast. I.
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Speaker 1: As you may see, I don't have my normal set
1:58
Speaker 1: behind me. I am traveling this week. I'm all over
2:01
Speaker 1: the state of Florida for a variety of work related issues.
2:08
Speaker 1: But obviously it's like I said, it's work, it's not play.
2:12
Speaker 1: So I've been other than still recovering still, I think
2:18
Speaker 1: my middle aged back is recovering from the snow shoveling
2:23
Speaker 1: and shall we say, trying to participate in the transportation
2:26
Speaker 1: system in America after a big snowstorm is never the
2:29
Speaker 1: easiest thing to do. But I have made it to
2:31
Speaker 1: where I need to get in getting through as many
2:36
Speaker 1: friendly skies as I can get through. But look, we
2:40
Speaker 1: begin today with what was clearly what Tuesday turned into
2:47
Speaker 1: for President Trump. You know, in the grand scheme of things,
2:51
Speaker 1: Tuesday was supposed to be the day that Donald Trump
2:54
Speaker 1: started to turn the page on this crazy, chaotic January
2:59
Speaker 1: that's been into. They set up this big event in
3:02
Speaker 1: Iowa to focus on affordability and affordability, and the White
3:09
Speaker 1: House focusing on affordability feels like we are reliving what
3:12
Speaker 1: happened in the first term with in every week. This
3:16
Speaker 1: was was going to be the week they focused on infrastructure.
3:19
Speaker 1: Every week is the week that the White House is
3:21
Speaker 1: going to turn its attention to affordability. And whether it's
3:25
Speaker 1: the President stepping on that message himself for a variety
3:28
Speaker 1: of reasons, or events that like what's happening in Minneapolis
3:34
Speaker 1: essentially start to consume the President. And it's pretty clear,
3:39
Speaker 1: as I sort of telegraphed for you on Monday, the
3:42
Speaker 1: walk back was coming and certainly, Tuesday was a lot
3:47
Speaker 1: of walk back. And let me just quote the President
3:50
Speaker 1: in one of his interviews, including this one, was on
3:53
Speaker 1: Fox when he was talking about getting rid of Greg.
3:57
Speaker 1: Greg Bovino is the guy that wears the long leather
3:59
Speaker 1: coat that for whatever reason, is excited that people will
4:04
Speaker 1: mistaken him for some nineteen thirties European thug. The first
4:12
Speaker 1: move the President made was essentially getting rid of Bovino,
4:15
Speaker 1: pulling him out of Minneapolis. Greg Bovino, who was and
4:19
Speaker 1: I'll quote him as he said, well, I don't think
4:22
Speaker 1: it's a pullback. I think it's a change. You know,
4:24
Speaker 1: Bovino's very good, but he's a pretty out there kind
4:27
Speaker 1: of guy, and in some cases that's good. Maybe it
4:30
Speaker 1: wasn't good here. And that was sort of the president
4:33
Speaker 1: all day on Tuesday. He was trying, on one hand
4:37
Speaker 1: to show some empathy to the situation, very awkwardly at best.
4:45
Speaker 1: He continues this weird during the interview, He's asked about
4:52
Speaker 1: Renee Good. We have Alex Pretty who died and Renee
4:56
Speaker 1: Good who died. That's about Renee Good. And he kept
4:58
Speaker 1: bringing up the fact that Renee his parents were Trump supporters,
5:03
Speaker 1: and he seems to seem to imply that he has
5:07
Speaker 1: a bit more empathy. It came across as if he
5:11
Speaker 1: was basically saying, well, I have more empathy for Renee
5:14
Speaker 1: Good because her parents voted for me, and I think
5:19
Speaker 1: we have an idea of what happened on this one, right.
5:22
Speaker 1: Somebody was telling him this in a desperate attempt to
5:25
Speaker 1: make sure he didn't trash her the way Christine Homan
5:30
Speaker 1: others trashed her in his administration. And what does he do.
5:34
Speaker 1: He sort of turns it into a callous thing anyway.
5:38
Speaker 1: That so, no, he's not trashing her, but he's making
5:43
Speaker 1: everybody uncomfortable by this advice, essentially implying that his empathy
5:48
Speaker 1: only extends to her because her parents supported him. But
5:53
Speaker 1: he clearly got the message that his own party. And
5:56
Speaker 1: this was sort of the question, why did he send
5:58
Speaker 1: Tom Homan r Tom Hommes. And it's not somebody who's
6:00
Speaker 1: going to reassure Tim Wallas or reassure Democrats, though plenty
6:04
Speaker 1: of Democrats have a good relationship with Tom Holman. He's
6:06
Speaker 1: a veteran of DHS and of Border Patrol, somebody that's
6:13
Speaker 1: worked with Jay Johnson and Ali may orcis the last
6:16
Speaker 1: two Democratic heads of the Department of Homeland Security. So
6:20
Speaker 1: he was somebody that's seen as sort of a professional.
6:23
Speaker 1: Certainly he has his political leaning, but he was a
6:25
Speaker 1: professional first, not like this Bovino character, or certainly not
6:28
Speaker 1: the way Christy Nome or Stephen Miller have been behaving.
6:33
Speaker 1: But what Homan was there to reassure Republicans who had
6:38
Speaker 1: completely lost confidence? And how do we know that Republicans
6:41
Speaker 1: clearly over the weekend had completely lost confidence because they
6:45
Speaker 1: all finally said something today after the President sent Tom Holman,
6:50
Speaker 1: after the President pulled Bovino, and after essentially the President
6:54
Speaker 1: gave a public permission slip to say what people wanted
6:58
Speaker 1: to say. And so what did you have? You had
7:00
Speaker 1: a parade of Republicans who have been wanting to speak
7:03
Speaker 1: out clearly we're afraid to get to do it before
7:07
Speaker 1: they knew what the White House was going to do.
7:09
Speaker 1: And then suddenly you had it right, you had I
7:12
Speaker 1: want to share a few share a few of these
7:15
Speaker 1: quotes here Thun going on the Senate floor. You wouldn't
7:19
Speaker 1: have You didn't see this with Renee Good, but you
7:21
Speaker 1: saw it with Alex pretty and where John Thune is
7:24
Speaker 1: saying the death of Alex Pretty was a tragedy and
7:26
Speaker 1: there should be a full and impartial investigation into his shooting.
7:31
Speaker 1: And then he adds, I am glad that the President
7:33
Speaker 1: has sent Tom Homan to Minnesota, and I hope his
7:35
Speaker 1: arrival will help turn down the temperature and restore order.
7:40
Speaker 1: And then you had it sort of seemed to almost
7:42
Speaker 1: open the floodgates for more and more Republicans to feel
7:46
Speaker 1: comfortable criticizing the situation. Ran Paul, calling for hearings, said
7:53
Speaker 1: that Christy Nome had accepted to come. You even had
7:56
Speaker 1: Tom Tillis calling for Christy Nome to be five, Lisa
8:00
Speaker 1: Rakowski joining him right after. So, yes, Tillis is retiring.
8:05
Speaker 1: Murkowski's not running in twenty six. So you know this
8:08
Speaker 1: is not I wouldn't call this a break just yet,
8:13
Speaker 1: but you see the direction this is going. And while
8:16
Speaker 1: the President had a simple one word answer whether she
8:20
Speaker 1: was still going to be there, referring to Christy Nomy
8:22
Speaker 1: said if she was going to be out of a job,
8:24
Speaker 1: He said no, But he's known to change his mind
8:29
Speaker 1: on those things, and I wouldn't I wouldn't assume anything
8:33
Speaker 1: is done, but I do think reading Tillis's statement matters
8:41
Speaker 1: because Tillis really put out a tough statement here. And
8:44
Speaker 1: look the backstory in Tom Tillis. You know he was
8:47
Speaker 1: going to run for reelection. He was focused on running
8:50
Speaker 1: for reelection. He was sort of you know, if Bill
8:54
Speaker 1: Cassidy was supposed to be the Republican that was either
8:56
Speaker 1: going to make or break RFK Junior, Tom Tillis was
8:59
Speaker 1: going to be. Joni Earns were going to be the
9:01
Speaker 1: Republicans that were going to make or break hag Seth.
9:03
Speaker 1: They both sort of blinked and they both end up retiring.
9:07
Speaker 1: I don't think that's an accident. I don't want to
9:10
Speaker 1: put words in Tom Tillis's mouth. He's never said this,
9:13
Speaker 1: but I can just tell you there's a lot of
9:15
Speaker 1: resentment amongst some Senate Republicans at haig Seth, at Christino,
9:21
Speaker 1: at RFK Junior, at Tulca Cavern. And so these are
9:25
Speaker 1: probably the least popular of the cabinet secretaries from the
9:28
Speaker 1: very beginning, and suddenly you're seeing those that feel like
9:32
Speaker 1: they can speak out are jumping on it. And I'll
9:35
Speaker 1: just quote Tom Tillis. She's proven that she doesn't know
9:38
Speaker 1: how to lead, how to de escalate. She's exposing ICE
9:41
Speaker 1: officers to dangerous situations, she's exposing US citizens to deadly situations. Again,
9:46
Speaker 1: Republican Senator Tom Tillis. And instead of actually stepping back
9:49
Speaker 1: and being calm, she tells the President, as did Stephen Miller,
9:52
Speaker 1: shortly after the shooting, before anybody could have gotten any
9:55
Speaker 1: unseen information that he was a terrorist. What sort of
9:57
Speaker 1: judgment is that for somebody who's running a very constant, quential,
10:00
Speaker 1: important organization. I haven't even talked about the C and
10:03
Speaker 1: D in failing grades that she's getting on Helene response
10:07
Speaker 1: referring to FEMA and the response for that storm last fall.
10:12
Speaker 1: So the knives are out there for Christino. And you know, look,
10:18
Speaker 1: Corey Lewandowski, her chief political advisor, who is a special
10:22
Speaker 1: Government assistantated DHS, has knows how to knife fight. And
10:26
Speaker 1: it's not surprising to me that you start to see
10:30
Speaker 1: DHS put out word that it was Stephen Miller who
10:34
Speaker 1: essentially instructed Gnome to say what she said about Alex
10:39
Speaker 1: pretty after the after the after the killing. Uh. And
10:44
Speaker 1: then you have Stephen Miller immediately calling up Axios and saying, well,
10:48
Speaker 1: the protocol we gave them, they violated the protocol. So
10:51
Speaker 1: the point is, though you're you're you're seeing some public
10:56
Speaker 1: in fighting and this can get contagious, and there's nothing
11:04
Speaker 1: that Trump administration, And weirdly, we know the president doesn't
11:07
Speaker 1: even mind it at times if people behind him are infighting.
11:13
Speaker 1: But it's bad politics. It doesn't help things, but it'll
11:18
Speaker 1: be interesting. I don't think anything shakes the President from
11:21
Speaker 1: trusting Stephen Miller. I think he views Stephen Miller as
11:24
Speaker 1: a loyal a loyalist of loyalists, so he will not
11:28
Speaker 1: dump him. I don't think he feels that same attachment
11:31
Speaker 1: to Christino. And the fact that you now have Republican
11:37
Speaker 1: senators speaking out, Yes, they're the ones retiring, and one's
11:41
Speaker 1: probably going to retire before the next time she runs
11:43
Speaker 1: for reelection referring to Lisa Murkowski. It's likely they're speaking
11:49
Speaker 1: for others who would like to see that happen too,
11:52
Speaker 1: but they're not ready to say that, right, They're not
11:54
Speaker 1: ready to go that far. But the point is is
11:56
Speaker 1: that clearly the president has gotten the political message. Does
12:05
Speaker 1: it change policy? Do we see any real changes in Minnesota?
12:10
Speaker 1: Do we see a quiet sort of retreat? Right there's
12:14
Speaker 1: you know, It's interesting Walls was a bit more diplomatic
12:16
Speaker 1: about his conversations with the President and with Homan, the mayor.
12:22
Speaker 1: Certainly it was diplomatic, but let's shall we say less so,
12:26
Speaker 1: and wasn't ready to be very cooperative at all. Certainly
12:32
Speaker 1: was diplomatic in tone, but things aren't you you're You're.
12:37
Speaker 1: I think I think they sort of are now seeing
12:41
Speaker 1: the writing on the wall. I think you throw in
12:43
Speaker 1: the fact that a Republican guberatorial candidate decided to drop
12:46
Speaker 1: out because he was embarrassed to be associated with the
12:48
Speaker 1: party because of what was happening in the and the
12:51
Speaker 1: killing of these two American citizens. So the the I
12:55
Speaker 1: think we now we see the President was trying to
12:59
Speaker 1: play clean up. I think he did about a C
13:03
Speaker 1: plus job, if you want to know the truth. I
13:06
Speaker 1: think the faster cleanup is firing Nome and turning the page.
13:10
Speaker 1: The fact that he can't bring himself to do that
13:12
Speaker 1: is going to drag this out. We now have the
13:15
Speaker 1: report that it was two different ice officers decided to
13:19
Speaker 1: shoot Freddy right, they had him subdued, they beat him up,
13:24
Speaker 1: and then two of them decided to shoot him. You
13:28
Speaker 1: had to assume it was since there were ten shots
13:31
Speaker 1: that it was likely more than one person shot him.
13:35
Speaker 1: But that's so that reports out there. It is one
13:40
Speaker 1: of those things. If Christy Nome's not fired in the
13:42
Speaker 1: next twenty four hours, then she's probably not going to
13:44
Speaker 1: get fired, because this is one of those things. If
13:46
Speaker 1: you're going to rip the band aid off, you'll rip
13:48
Speaker 1: the band aid off, and you do it now. And
13:51
Speaker 1: it's clear a whole bunch of people are trying to
13:53
Speaker 1: get to him to do this. So I do think
13:56
Speaker 1: the next twenty four to thirty six hours are pretty
14:02
Speaker 1: probably means the way Trump world works, there are those
14:08
Speaker 1: that are going to try to find a million different
14:10
Speaker 1: ways to get to know. By the way, if you
14:13
Speaker 1: tell me that the reason we all know about Tom
14:15
Speaker 1: Homan and his bag of cash is because Lewandowski was
14:17
Speaker 1: trying to knife him, it would shock nobody in how
14:21
Speaker 1: this world works. The point being is it's going to
14:27
Speaker 1: be a messy thirty six hours in no world politically,
14:32
Speaker 1: and we know the president has been not wanting but
14:36
Speaker 1: at this point he's made it more than a year
14:38
Speaker 1: and he's only fired a national security advisor, right, so
14:43
Speaker 1: at this point, look, will I think it's a giant
14:48
Speaker 1: political gift to the Democrats if he doesn't fire her,
14:52
Speaker 1: her very presence, there, her everything. She has zero credibility.
14:57
Speaker 1: Republican senators are now saying she has zero ability. I
15:01
Speaker 1: says zero credibility right now, it doesn't make sense to
15:05
Speaker 1: keep her. And so, you know, like I said, I
15:08
Speaker 1: I think I think this is uh. I think that
15:12
Speaker 1: that her tenure is going to be measured in hours,
15:14
Speaker 1: not days. But if it's not, it might be quite
15:20
Speaker 1: the gift UH to Democrats. And but but what did this?
15:26
Speaker 1: You know, if you think about how the month of
15:28
Speaker 1: January is gone, if you're an elected Republican that's going
15:31
Speaker 1: to be on the ballot twenty six and you're just
15:34
Speaker 1: exhausted from all of this essentially chaos and instability that
15:40
Speaker 1: the President continues to introduce. Whether it's you know, we
15:43
Speaker 1: still have no path at democracy in Venezuela. That's starting
15:46
Speaker 1: to get weird and odd are we We're just using
15:51
Speaker 1: it as as as some sort of oil depot the
15:58
Speaker 1: break with Canada. By the way, the Europeans and the
16:01
Speaker 1: Indians just did a massive trade deal. So the President's
16:04
Speaker 1: trade policy is creating all sorts of of economic partnerships
16:11
Speaker 1: that do not include the United States, that all of
16:14
Speaker 1: us are going to regret at some point, probably sooner
16:18
Speaker 1: rather than later. But this incident might be the permission
16:25
Speaker 1: slip that a lot of Republicans are going to use
16:28
Speaker 1: to start to distance themselves from the from from the
16:32
Speaker 1: more unpopular things of the Trump administration, especially if he's
16:36
Speaker 1: going to be completely sort of if he's going to
16:44
Speaker 1: be completely oblivious to the reality on the ground on
16:49
Speaker 1: the economy. Because I do want to not lose sight
16:53
Speaker 1: of why he went to Iowa, right he was there
16:58
Speaker 1: to focus on affordability. I have to tell you he
17:02
Speaker 1: couldn't have picked a worst state to try to highlight
17:05
Speaker 1: his economic policies because Iowa has probably been at the
17:12
Speaker 1: has been the punching bag to Trump's crazy tariff regime.
17:16
Speaker 1: Iowa is now fiftieth. I was doing some research earlier
17:20
Speaker 1: this week on this i was fiftieth in the nation
17:23
Speaker 1: among fifty states in GDP growth in the last year.
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Speaker 1: slash chuck. So now I want to pivot to where
19:24
Speaker 1: the President was trying to pivot today. Right today was
19:26
Speaker 1: not supposed to be all about his ice operations in Minneapolis.
19:32
Speaker 1: Today was the day he was supposed to pivot to
19:34
Speaker 1: focusing on the economy, touting his economic record and essentially
19:39
Speaker 1: asking for patients. And he chose the state of Iowa,
19:43
Speaker 1: which was a curious choice. On one hand, he should
19:46
Speaker 1: be there. He's got some work to do in Iowa.
19:48
Speaker 1: He's got a lot of unhappy farmers. Iowa's economy not
19:52
Speaker 1: in good shape at all, and at this very moment,
19:57
Speaker 1: for a variety of reasons and I want to get
19:59
Speaker 1: into that. But here he is going to Iowa today
20:02
Speaker 1: to try to focus on affordability, and on the day
20:05
Speaker 1: he leaves, this being Tuesday, and obviously you guys are
20:09
Speaker 1: listening to this air. On Wednesday, we got some important
20:13
Speaker 1: new information about consumers. And let's just say, consumers already
20:19
Speaker 1: or behaving, are acting as if we're already in recession.
20:24
Speaker 1: So we had some January numbers that showed us. Now, look,
20:28
Speaker 1: there are two different surveys that came out on consumer confidence.
20:31
Speaker 1: One factor's employment prospects into it and one does it right.
20:36
Speaker 1: So on one side, yet the University of Michigan survey
20:38
Speaker 1: that focuses more on pocketbook issues like gas prices and inflation.
20:42
Speaker 1: And on the other one that came out today it
20:44
Speaker 1: was the Conference Board Index, which is much more sensitive
20:48
Speaker 1: to the labor market and jobs, and one showed basically
20:54
Speaker 1: stagnation with a tiny bit of relief. The Michigan survey
20:58
Speaker 1: already those super low, but the Conference Board numbers that
21:02
Speaker 1: fell through the floor. So let me start with that one.
21:04
Speaker 1: The Conference Sports Consumer Confidence Index just cub lapsed in January.
21:09
Speaker 1: Top line number fell to eighty four point five, which
21:12
Speaker 1: is down from ninety four point two in December. These
21:14
Speaker 1: are their marks here. That doesn't mean it was a
21:17
Speaker 1: bad month. This is the lowest reading on this measurement
21:21
Speaker 1: on this scale since May of twenty fourteen, so it's lower.
21:25
Speaker 1: This confidence number is lower than during any moment during
21:30
Speaker 1: the pandemic, any moment during the pandemic. And even more
21:35
Speaker 1: concerning is the expectations index in this measurement, which plungs
21:39
Speaker 1: is sixty five point one. What does that mean? What's
21:41
Speaker 1: the expectations that things are not going to be good
21:43
Speaker 1: in this labor market? Economists generally treat any number below
21:48
Speaker 1: eighty as a warning sign that a recession is likely
21:50
Speaker 1: within the next year. Well, this this number was sixty five,
21:55
Speaker 1: so this isn't theoretical fear. There's already labor market and anxiety.
22:00
Speaker 1: This is what the public is feeling. This is not
22:03
Speaker 1: about any measurement numbers. This is just public sentiment and
22:08
Speaker 1: obviously our economy and consumer confidence. These things matter. So
22:13
Speaker 1: the share of consumers who say jobs are plentiful fell
22:17
Speaker 1: to under twenty five percent, while those saying that jobs
22:20
Speaker 1: are hard to get right now rose to twenty one percent.
22:24
Speaker 1: So that gap that is closing fast and when that closes,
22:28
Speaker 1: I mean, I means you're seeing more just as many
22:31
Speaker 1: people say jobs are plentiful as they are hard to get.
22:34
Speaker 1: One number is going down and one number is going up.
22:38
Speaker 1: So consumers are now starting to worry about their job security.
22:42
Speaker 1: If they have one. Confidence doesn't bounce back quickly based
22:46
Speaker 1: on that. No tax refund is going to make you
22:48
Speaker 1: feel better about jobs. Because what's helping to underline this
22:51
Speaker 1: issue of jobs, Well, there's all sorts of reasons. Right
22:55
Speaker 1: when they asked respondents, they pointed to tariffs and trade policy,
22:58
Speaker 1: which is and I'm going to get to eye well
23:00
Speaker 1: here in a minute, creates a lot of uncertainty, especially
23:05
Speaker 1: if you're in if you're at all in the agricultural space,
23:09
Speaker 1: a ton of any of the rising cost of health
23:11
Speaker 1: insurance that is leading to more anxiety. And then of
23:14
Speaker 1: course there's ai job displacement fears. Now, the other survey
23:20
Speaker 1: at the University of Michigan survey showed modest improvement, but okay,
23:25
Speaker 1: we're talking a January reading of fifty six point four,
23:28
Speaker 1: which is terrible, up from fifty two point nine in December,
23:31
Speaker 1: which was awful. Right, it's still twenty points lower than
23:37
Speaker 1: it was a year ago. Consumer confidence was better at
23:39
Speaker 1: the start of Trump's presidency than it is essentially now
23:43
Speaker 1: one year in, and it is barely above historic lows.
23:47
Speaker 1: So while you can say, hey, it ticked up, if
23:49
Speaker 1: you wanted to really spin and lie to people, you
23:52
Speaker 1: could say the consumer confidence survey at the University of
23:55
Speaker 1: Michigan ticked up from December to January. But what they
23:58
Speaker 1: don't tell you is that it's near historic lows. So
24:03
Speaker 1: inflation expectations for the year ahead have eased a little
24:06
Speaker 1: bit to four percent, but that's still above the two
24:09
Speaker 1: percent expectation. The longer term expectations ticked up to three
24:13
Speaker 1: point three percent. Again not good. It's a sign that
24:16
Speaker 1: Americans don't fully trust the trajectory of inflation, even though
24:20
Speaker 1: the President claimed on Tuesday they've already solved it. No
24:23
Speaker 1: more inflation, Inflation's over. That's not what the public is feeling,
24:29
Speaker 1: and that's not what's actually happening. So and guests who
24:35
Speaker 1: what's interesting here on this front, by the way, is
24:40
Speaker 1: that gen Z was actually the most optimistic about finding
24:42
Speaker 1: a job than anybody older than that, and gen Z's
24:45
Speaker 1: pretty pessimistic about everything else. I don't know if that's
24:49
Speaker 1: cause for comfort. But I want to focus on the
24:51
Speaker 1: Iowa story because you know what's unique of what's interesting
24:54
Speaker 1: about this is one of the first states George W.
24:56
Speaker 1: Bush would go to to tout the economy when he
24:58
Speaker 1: was beginning his reelection was Iowa. One of the first
25:01
Speaker 1: states that Barack Obama went to would be Iowa. And
25:04
Speaker 1: here's Donald Trump, essentially his first foray in the campaign season.
25:08
Speaker 1: He goes to Iowa. You might argue, how Iowa goes
25:14
Speaker 1: or how Iowa perceives the economy, so goes the perception
25:19
Speaker 1: of America on this one. So let's go back to
25:21
Speaker 1: Iowa because the confidence gap explains the disconnect that we're
25:24
Speaker 1: seeing on the ground there. So the presidents in clive
25:26
Speaker 1: Iowa talking about affordability and saying economy's great prices are
25:30
Speaker 1: coming way down, that isn't what the data is showing.
25:34
Speaker 1: According to the Philadelphia Fed State Index, Iowa now ranks
25:39
Speaker 1: fiftieth in the nation for economic growth dead frickin last
25:45
Speaker 1: That hasn't happened since the farm crisis of the eighties.
25:49
Speaker 1: Iowa was not just lagging, it is anchoring national growth.
25:53
Speaker 1: It is pulling us back. And you know what the
25:56
Speaker 1: You know what the reason is, tars, It is teriffs.
26:03
Speaker 1: So when you combine collapsing labor confidence nationally with Iowa's
26:07
Speaker 1: local economic stress, now you see the messaging problem this
26:11
Speaker 1: White House has. On the farm front, Iowa corn is
26:14
Speaker 1: still trading roughly forty four cents below the cost of production.
26:19
Speaker 1: So even though the administration is throwing twelve million dollars
26:22
Speaker 1: in this bridge assistance program, it's not fixing it. It's
26:25
Speaker 1: simply going to put off the financial reckoning that these
26:29
Speaker 1: farmers are facing. And as the Farmers Union put it,
26:32
Speaker 1: using terraffs to fix trade is like quote, trying to
26:35
Speaker 1: change a light bulb with a hammer. It doesn't work.
26:39
Speaker 1: Then there's manufacturing, which also is not a great story
26:42
Speaker 1: in the state of idle plants across the Cedar Rapids
26:45
Speaker 1: Waterloo corridor. Waterloo's where my dad grew up, so I
26:48
Speaker 1: always care about Waterloo a lot. They're stuck in low higher,
26:51
Speaker 1: low fire holding pattern. Right, all of these there's some
26:56
Speaker 1: issues with manufacturing that a they're trying to wait for
27:00
Speaker 1: some stability on the terraff front and anything you import
27:04
Speaker 1: to manufacture things. And of course the other is AI.
27:07
Speaker 1: What is AI going to replace, and so you don't
27:09
Speaker 1: have a lot of people filling heads on this. But
27:12
Speaker 1: the tariffs on specialized machinery have pushed costs up ten
27:17
Speaker 1: to fifty percent, depending on the machinery you have to import,
27:21
Speaker 1: and so that kills any return on investment if you're
27:24
Speaker 1: trying to expand your manufacturing. So, while the White House
27:27
Speaker 1: wants to talk affordability, Iowa businesses are in a defensive crouch.
27:33
Speaker 1: They're just waiting for this storm to pass. They're not growing.
27:38
Speaker 1: So why is he there? Well, we know why he's there.
27:41
Speaker 1: Iowa is home to three competitive house races, a competitive
27:44
Speaker 1: governor's race, and a competitive center race. It is it's basically,
27:48
Speaker 1: if Iowa goes blue, the Democrats are going to win
27:54
Speaker 1: the House and the Senate. Right, and it's possible. You've
27:58
Speaker 1: got a strong gubernatorial candidate. I'm saying, you've got an
28:03
Speaker 1: open Senate. See, and you've now got one open House
28:07
Speaker 1: seat and two three of the four are already super competitive.
28:10
Speaker 1: You have two open house seats total because the Randy
28:13
Speaker 1: Fiinstra is running for governor. So on the one hand,
28:19
Speaker 1: Iowa is a place that needs a lot of help.
28:22
Speaker 1: If you're a Republican On the other hand, Trump's messaging
28:27
Speaker 1: is all over the map and it isn't working. And
28:30
Speaker 1: on the economy, particularly on the farm economy, Trump's economic
28:35
Speaker 1: policies have damaged, have hurt the average Iowa more than
28:40
Speaker 1: in other places, and so it's a curious place for
28:44
Speaker 1: them to go. Like I said, on one hand, it's necessary.
28:47
Speaker 1: On the other hand, you know, I'm not sure his
28:51
Speaker 1: personal popularity is going to overcome this economic angst that
28:57
Speaker 1: is gripping Iowa and a lot of folks on this front.
29:00
Speaker 1: So look, I think he's trying to fix his trying
29:05
Speaker 1: to do some damage control on Ice. I don't know
29:08
Speaker 1: if he's moved fast enough, but it's clear a whole
29:12
Speaker 1: bunch of people are getting in his ear and trying
29:14
Speaker 1: to get him a fire. No, but the bigger problem
29:17
Speaker 1: might be and the bigger issue is the fact that
29:23
Speaker 1: their economic message is just not resonating because how people
29:28
Speaker 1: are actually feeling in this economy versus what they're saying
29:31
Speaker 1: are two different things. And you see it, people do
29:35
Speaker 1: not feel good about this economy. And ultimately, yes, I
29:40
Speaker 1: think Ice and Greenland and all these foreign policy excapades,
29:44
Speaker 1: they're all adding to the feel of instability, And I
29:48
Speaker 1: think ultimately it's that instability that's gonna that could really
29:54
Speaker 1: do sort of have sort of dual motivating factors. Right,
29:57
Speaker 1: one will demotivate his base vote who don't feel very
30:01
Speaker 1: good about they don't know what they're fighting for at
30:03
Speaker 1: this point, and it really will motivate those that want
30:08
Speaker 1: to see a check on Donald Trump. One other point, boy,
30:13
Speaker 1: has Donald Trump messed up his gun politics? Now? Do
30:15
Speaker 1: I think that you're going to have suddenly the NRA
30:21
Speaker 1: spending money on behalf of Democrats? Know? In fact, it's
30:23
Speaker 1: been funny to watch the NRA. The NRA is the
30:25
Speaker 1: only gun rights group that hasn't condemned the president's remarks
30:29
Speaker 1: from earlier on Tuesday where he said that Alex Prenny
30:33
Speaker 1: shouldn't have brought a gun there. What was he doing
30:35
Speaker 1: bringing a gun there? And it was like, I mean,
30:38
Speaker 1: he was using what gun rights groups would say, was,
30:42
Speaker 1: you know, was not sort of accepting the premise that
30:46
Speaker 1: a constitutional right is a right and that you don't
30:49
Speaker 1: get to be seen as suspicious just because you choose
30:52
Speaker 1: to exercise a constitutional right. It's been funny to watch
30:57
Speaker 1: gun right supporters just sort of panic about this but
31:01
Speaker 1: there's you know, this is a lesson for everybody that
31:03
Speaker 1: signed up with Trump. Trump evenged Trump eventually will let
31:09
Speaker 1: you down. He lets every one of his supporters on
31:12
Speaker 1: something down eventually. And this was what his primary opponents
31:20
Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen were going bonkers about and complaining about
31:24
Speaker 1: and frustrated about. Right the Ted Cruz. They were all like,
31:27
Speaker 1: going to these specific interest groups, including the NRA. You
31:31
Speaker 1: can't trust him on guns, you can't do this yet.
31:34
Speaker 1: You can't trust him on any of these things. You
31:36
Speaker 1: can't trust him on abortion, you know. And certainly he's
31:39
Speaker 1: appointed judges that have made the NRA and the right
31:41
Speaker 1: to life community very happy. But Donald Trump's never with anybody.
31:47
Speaker 1: Donald Trump's with one person, himself, and he will throw
31:51
Speaker 1: any supportive anybody he supports, or anybody that supports him,
31:57
Speaker 1: he will throw them under the bus to protect himself
32:00
Speaker 1: from whatever he's got to protect himself. And what are
32:04
Speaker 1: gun right supporters learning this week that he does not
32:09
Speaker 1: really care about their issue, because if he did, he
32:13
Speaker 1: wouldn't have been saying what he's been saying about the
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34:05
Speaker 1: it is Wednesday, which means I've got a new top
34:08
Speaker 1: five list, Top top five, top top And while I
34:17
Speaker 1: am tempted to stick to sports themes again, I'm not
34:23
Speaker 1: going to do that. It's back to politics. So the
34:25
Speaker 1: top five list I owe you for this week is
34:29
Speaker 1: Governor's and updating my Governor's list. And look, this isn't
34:33
Speaker 1: going to budge all that month throughout the year, but
34:36
Speaker 1: if it does, because basically, I think there are five
34:39
Speaker 1: governors races that are really likely to flip, and then
34:44
Speaker 1: there are another four or five that are going to
34:46
Speaker 1: be really interesting but probably won't flip. And as you know,
34:49
Speaker 1: my rankings are most likely to change parties. That's that's
34:54
Speaker 1: what number one means. And if you know I were
34:56
Speaker 1: ranking all the way to thirty six, there's thirty six
34:58
Speaker 1: scubernatory elections. Thirty six would be least likely to change parties.
35:02
Speaker 1: So I guess that would be Idaho, right is where
35:05
Speaker 1: you put that? Maybe you put Vermont right above Idaho.
35:09
Speaker 1: But this top five list, it is interesting in the
35:11
Speaker 1: governor's front that you basically have five that you know
35:15
Speaker 1: for sure are either already going to flip. Right, my
35:20
Speaker 1: number one, and it's been number one the last couple
35:22
Speaker 1: of months that I've done this. The governor's seat most
35:26
Speaker 1: likely to flip continues for me to be Kansas. Kansas
35:31
Speaker 1: is this is a red state that has just wrapping
35:34
Speaker 1: up two terms of a democratic governor. Kansas has been,
35:37
Speaker 1: as I like to say, it's been a bit of
35:39
Speaker 1: a windshield wiper when it comes to it's governor's eight
35:42
Speaker 1: years with one party, eight years with the next party,
35:45
Speaker 1: eight years with the other. That's kind of what the
35:47
Speaker 1: twenty first century has been about for Kansas. And uh, well,
35:51
Speaker 1: it's what'll be interesting here is that this moment comes
35:58
Speaker 1: when it looks like the national environment and the wind
36:01
Speaker 1: is going to be blowing in the direction of the Democrats.
36:04
Speaker 1: Does that give Democrats a better shot at winning? I
36:08
Speaker 1: it's been a to get a third straight term. That's
36:12
Speaker 1: been very difficult. Then get so, but I have to
36:15
Speaker 1: put just just playing the numbers game, most likely seek
36:19
Speaker 1: to change parties at this point in the governors is
36:21
Speaker 1: Kansas at one. Number two you know I'm going to
36:26
Speaker 1: continue is open seats are always more easier to flip
36:33
Speaker 1: than incumbants. It's very rare. Single hardest thing to do
36:38
Speaker 1: in politics is to oust a and comb and president.
36:40
Speaker 1: And the second hardest thing to do is to oust
36:43
Speaker 1: an incumbent governor. They very rarely get ousted. Voters usually
36:48
Speaker 1: if it's four year terms, want to give at least
36:52
Speaker 1: you know, governors have to be just absolutely debacles or
36:57
Speaker 1: in terrible political environments to not get a second term.
37:01
Speaker 1: But in my top five list, I have two incombent
37:03
Speaker 1: governors who are I'm putting in there because these are
37:05
Speaker 1: going to be coin flip races, but neither one of
37:07
Speaker 1: them are in the second slot. In the second slot
37:10
Speaker 1: is the state I profiled earlier. I'm putting Iowa on
37:15
Speaker 1: that second slot after going through that economic and I
37:19
Speaker 1: even went deeper. The good news for Iowa state government
37:25
Speaker 1: is that they have a rainy day fund and they've
37:28
Speaker 1: had a budget surplus. The bad news is it's going
37:31
Speaker 1: to have to be depleted big time. Vouchers has been
37:34
Speaker 1: costing the budget money. They are going to be running
37:36
Speaker 1: a deficit this year. Vouchers is costing them money. The
37:41
Speaker 1: lack of these tariffs are costing them money because they're
37:43
Speaker 1: just getting They're exporting less corn, exporting less soybean, so
37:49
Speaker 1: all of that is hurting the budget a little bit.
37:52
Speaker 1: They're not going to have to do any cuts, but
37:54
Speaker 1: they're going to have to tap in to this raindy
37:57
Speaker 1: day fund. And they have voucherized their public schools system
38:01
Speaker 1: that has added costs to this system as well. So
38:07
Speaker 1: I think the environment is just in a really bad place.
38:10
Speaker 1: The only thing going for Iowa Republicans as demographics, but
38:15
Speaker 1: the economic environment in the state, the perception of the
38:20
Speaker 1: schools in the state is all of it is in
38:24
Speaker 1: a bad place for Republicans. And they're the party in
38:27
Speaker 1: power in the state. Right They've kind of had a
38:30
Speaker 1: recent juggernaut. This is a former swing state in the
38:34
Speaker 1: frankly most of my adult life. It's i always been
38:37
Speaker 1: a swing state. Since Donald Trump came on the scene,
38:40
Speaker 1: he's been a it's been more red than purple. Like
38:46
Speaker 1: I said, I think this situation is and the more
38:50
Speaker 1: I dug into it, Democrats have a very good candidate here,
38:54
Speaker 1: one that's going to be very hard to link to
38:56
Speaker 1: the far left. Rob saying I said this before. He's
39:01
Speaker 1: been on this podcast, you know, he he I think
39:04
Speaker 1: I can quote him as saying, the only reason he's
39:06
Speaker 1: running as a Democrat is there was no he didn't
39:08
Speaker 1: view another viable way to be on the ballot. So
39:12
Speaker 1: he is running a very sort of independent minded campaign.
39:16
Speaker 1: But he hasn't been He hasn't been shy about being
39:19
Speaker 1: a partisan on this front. So with him leaving the tickets,
39:24
Speaker 1: it's uh. And the current economic conditions of the state,
39:29
Speaker 1: never mind the national climate. That's why I have Iowa
39:33
Speaker 1: right now in the second slot. Number three is Michigan.
39:37
Speaker 1: Obviously the three way race. It's still there's been flying
39:42
Speaker 1: a little bit under the radar, but polling consistently seems
39:45
Speaker 1: to show and this is one where I mean the
39:49
Speaker 1: if there, I think the Republicans would have a hard
39:51
Speaker 1: time winning this without Mike Duggan running as an independent.
39:56
Speaker 1: He's in the low twenties, which puts him in third place.
40:01
Speaker 1: He continues to perform very well in and around Detroit,
40:04
Speaker 1: much less well in the rest of the state, while
40:06
Speaker 1: both the Republican and the DEMO likely Democratic nominee John
40:10
Speaker 1: James and Jocelyn Benson both do better outside of Detroit,
40:14
Speaker 1: which is why their neck and neck. But the fact
40:16
Speaker 1: is their neck and neck because Dugan is pulling from
40:20
Speaker 1: both parties. He is not just pulling from the Democrats.
40:23
Speaker 1: But obviously if he can be in, if he's in
40:26
Speaker 1: the mid twenties, that's a big chunk of Democratic vote
40:30
Speaker 1: coming out of Wayne County that's going to Duggan. That
40:34
Speaker 1: puts Benson in a tough spot. So you have to
40:36
Speaker 1: put Michigan in the in this very turbulent top five,
40:40
Speaker 1: So I sit him in three and then at four
40:42
Speaker 1: and five and you can interchange them. It's the two
40:45
Speaker 1: Southwest governors in the swing states, Katie Hodgs Democrat, Joe
40:50
Speaker 1: Lombardo Republican in Nevada Katie Hobbs in Arizona, both narrowly
40:55
Speaker 1: one in twenty two. Both are already in neck and
41:02
Speaker 1: neck races. Now, I think Lombardo, if I were to,
41:07
Speaker 1: I probably put Hobbs as slightly more vulnerable losing in
41:10
Speaker 1: Arizona than Lombardo and Nevada. I feel like he's a
41:14
Speaker 1: slightly better political athlete. But the political climate, right, You'd
41:18
Speaker 1: rather be a Democrat in this climate than a Republican
41:20
Speaker 1: in this climate. And we know Nevada is super sensitive
41:25
Speaker 1: to the economy, and as this consumer economy continues to crash.
41:29
Speaker 1: And oh, by the way, a lot of Canadians had
41:35
Speaker 1: been traveling to Las Vegas. There's been a noticeable downturn
41:39
Speaker 1: in visitors to Las Vegas, fewer international vitors, excuse me,
41:43
Speaker 1: visitors to Las Vegas becomes it can be directly attributed
41:50
Speaker 1: to Donald Trump and his policies. So I just think
41:55
Speaker 1: this is this is like Iowa. I think Joel Lombardo
41:59
Speaker 1: is trying to walk the line, and he knows he
42:02
Speaker 1: governs the state that that is that's pretty purple. It's
42:06
Speaker 1: probably as swingy as you get in the country. There
42:11
Speaker 1: may be forces here that that make it very tough,
42:15
Speaker 1: and he's going to face the sitting ag. All the
42:19
Speaker 1: polling shows is gonna be one point race, is gonna
42:21
Speaker 1: be really expensive race too, But there's no But the
42:26
Speaker 1: point is those five Kansas, Iowa, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada. I
42:33
Speaker 1: think those are going to be the most likely to
42:37
Speaker 1: flip over over and above everyone. The other ones that
42:39
Speaker 1: I'm watching that they could have could get competitive, Georgia
42:43
Speaker 1: could get competitive. I'm very curious to see how that
42:47
Speaker 1: plays out. I just think that the Democratic race still
42:51
Speaker 1: need both both primaries need time to develop. Wisconsin, same
42:55
Speaker 1: thing again. I probably just towards Democrats slightly being favored
43:02
Speaker 1: there just because of the overall political climate. Then there's
43:05
Speaker 1: Ohio and Florida, where I think Republicans are favored in both.
43:08
Speaker 1: But if you told me those races got very competitive
43:10
Speaker 1: come October, those wouldn't it wouldn't surprise me at all.
43:14
Speaker 1: So I think that's how i'd put it. I think
43:17
Speaker 1: that you have sort of nine to ten truly competitive
43:22
Speaker 1: D versus are races. You know, anything else that pops
43:26
Speaker 1: on the radar, my guess it's because either there's a
43:31
Speaker 1: really bad incumbent, you know, scandal or something that that
43:35
Speaker 1: that tags an incumbent or an incumbent party, or just
43:39
Speaker 1: the national climate collapses for one party or the other.
43:42
Speaker 1: But for now, those five that I ranked, there those
43:45
Speaker 1: other four that I mentioned, and that's that's that's the
43:50
Speaker 1: lion's share of how I'm watching governor's races so far
43:52
Speaker 1: for twenty twenty six. All Right, Before I take some questions,
43:56
Speaker 1: I do want to spend a few minutes about the
44:03
Speaker 1: about what's about to happen at the Washington Post. Just look,
44:07
Speaker 1: as a Washingtonian the idea that we're about to lose
44:10
Speaker 1: our local newspaper, and I say, uh, lose it's I
44:18
Speaker 1: think we're I think if the cuts that are coming
44:23
Speaker 1: that are rumored to be coming, essentially gutting of sports,
44:26
Speaker 1: gutting of the international desk, gutting of local which we've
44:29
Speaker 1: been watching. At this point, I don't know what the
44:32
Speaker 1: Washington Post is anymore. If this is uh, if this
44:35
Speaker 1: what's happening. But this, I don't know why Bezos has
44:45
Speaker 1: decided to just gut the newspaper. This is still a
44:49
Speaker 1: rounding air for him financially, and I don't even understand
44:55
Speaker 1: what the vision is. Right will Lewis, the CEO, keeps
44:58
Speaker 1: describing We're gonna have a fun fundamental transformation of the paper.
45:02
Speaker 1: But there's never been an articulation of what the transformation
45:05
Speaker 1: means beyond layoffs, and all anybody has gotten out of
45:09
Speaker 1: it is layoffs. Just to put some numbers to this,
45:15
Speaker 1: since will Lewis, since this new, you know, there's already
45:17
Speaker 1: were two hundred and forty jobs were cut in late
45:20
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three. Then they had another four percent labor
45:23
Speaker 1: force cut in twenty twenty five. Now there's talk of
45:27
Speaker 1: another three hundred staffers at this point. I don't know
45:30
Speaker 1: how many. How many are left, but another ten percent.
45:36
Speaker 1: This is a lot, you know. The it is for
45:43
Speaker 1: those that have followed just sports reporting for decades, the
45:48
Speaker 1: Washington Post is incubated pretty much. I promise you somebody
45:53
Speaker 1: you liked in the national sports scene, the Washington Post
45:56
Speaker 1: likely incubated that person, right, Whether it's Tony Kornheiser, like
46:00
Speaker 1: Well Bond, you know it is David Aldridge. I can
46:05
Speaker 1: you know there's I know I'm missing a whole bunch
46:08
Speaker 1: of others. It's it's it's easily been one of the
46:14
Speaker 1: most consequential and best sports pages in the country. And
46:18
Speaker 1: I don't know how you stay a successful local or
46:22
Speaker 1: regional paper if you don't want to cover the community
46:26
Speaker 1: in addition to sort of covering the hard news. And
46:30
Speaker 1: but that's apparently the decision that Bezos wants to make.
46:34
Speaker 1: I mean that they're if you're not going to let
46:38
Speaker 1: beat writers go to spring training to cover the Nationals
46:41
Speaker 1: right or to do their job. You're not letting beat
46:43
Speaker 1: writers go to away games, Well, they're not going to
46:46
Speaker 1: be able to cover the team. I can cover the
46:48
Speaker 1: team watching them on TV. Anybody can cover the team
46:50
Speaker 1: watching them on TV. That isn't how journalism works. You've
46:54
Speaker 1: got to be there. You've got to be at the hotels,
46:57
Speaker 1: you've got to be on the planes. When you can
46:59
Speaker 1: get there, it's the same thing. Can you can do.
47:02
Speaker 1: You can cover eighty percent of what Trump does in
47:05
Speaker 1: a given day just watching a c Span feed or
47:08
Speaker 1: watching various TV feeds or social media feeds. But if
47:12
Speaker 1: you're not in the building, you're not getting the nuance,
47:15
Speaker 1: you're not getting the asides. That's how these reporting, that's
47:19
Speaker 1: how real reporting happens. But here's the weird. So all
47:23
Speaker 1: this is happening and you have social media has been filled.
47:25
Speaker 1: You have various reporters directly addressing Jeff Bezos on Twitter
47:31
Speaker 1: begging him please don't do this. Please don't cut foreign,
47:34
Speaker 1: Please don't cut sports, please don't cut local. And so
47:41
Speaker 1: what's what's Jeff Bezos doing right now? Somebody put some
47:44
Speaker 1: math together here? Okay, because while The Post is reportedly
47:48
Speaker 1: losing one hundred million dollars a year and cutting deeply
47:52
Speaker 1: into the muscle of its newsroom, Jeff Bezos doesn't mind
47:56
Speaker 1: flushing money down the toilet with some of his other's adventures.
48:00
Speaker 1: Let me just pick one randomount of thin air. The
48:03
Speaker 1: Amazon MGM Studios, which of course mister Bezos controls, just
48:10
Speaker 1: approved a forty million dollar deal to acquire a documentary
48:13
Speaker 1: about Millennia Trump. That's just the licensing fee. On top
48:18
Speaker 1: of that, Amazon has committed and estimated thirty million dollars
48:22
Speaker 1: for a global marketing push. It is just fallen flat.
48:27
Speaker 1: There's already reports that nobody's going few people are buying tickets.
48:33
Speaker 1: This is not something that interests many people. He's very
48:36
Speaker 1: unpopular right now, so nobody really cares about the Trumps
48:40
Speaker 1: at the moment. Right this is not the best time
48:43
Speaker 1: to launch a movie about about the first Lady when
48:47
Speaker 1: right now everybody's mad at the president. These are worst
48:50
Speaker 1: numbers he's had ever, so forty million plus thirty five million, right,
48:56
Speaker 1: seventy's that's just seventy five million. He's lighting that on fire.
49:00
Speaker 1: That's seventy five million dollars just to genuflect for Trump.
49:05
Speaker 1: But he's gonna gut the Washington Post forever because it's losing,
49:16
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's losing money. He doesn't mind losing
49:19
Speaker 1: money to make sure he gets his space contracts for
49:24
Speaker 1: his space hobby, and I guess that's what he sees
49:29
Speaker 1: that money as an investment for. But he's basically pissing away,
49:34
Speaker 1: just throwing away seventy five million dollars for this Millennia movie,
49:41
Speaker 1: which would be almost the same amount of money that
49:43
Speaker 1: would wipe out The Post's entire annual deficit. The point
49:48
Speaker 1: is is that Jeff Bezos is making a choice. If
49:50
Speaker 1: he wanted the Washington Post to succeed, he could have
49:53
Speaker 1: invested in it, and in fact, for a while he
49:56
Speaker 1: did and the Post. Nates Over did a pretty good
49:59
Speaker 1: piece showing that, you know, when it came to sort
50:01
Speaker 1: of relevance and how often they were sighted and all
50:05
Speaker 1: of this stuff, the Post and the Times were just
50:07
Speaker 1: sort of neck and neck and so and the Times
50:11
Speaker 1: decided that, okay, we've got more traffic, let's add more offerings.
50:16
Speaker 1: And so they went crazy with the bundles right with
50:18
Speaker 1: the games, and they bought the Athletic. They decided to
50:21
Speaker 1: you know, yes, people were upset that they got rid
50:23
Speaker 1: of the Times sports bureau, but they bought the best
50:27
Speaker 1: sports news organization that was out there in the Athletic.
50:31
Speaker 1: They've expanded their offerings, they've expanded their aperture, they've expanded
50:36
Speaker 1: their bandwidth. Washington Post cut cut cut, got cut, cut cut,
50:41
Speaker 1: and their traffic is collapsing. And outside of it right now,
50:46
Speaker 1: their congressional team is still They have not, thankfully, they
50:50
Speaker 1: have not gotten rid of their congressional team. It's an
50:54
Speaker 1: A plus team, A man Paul Kine and that crew.
50:57
Speaker 1: It's just an A plus team. Thank goodness. They haven't
50:59
Speaker 1: wrecked that. But everything else they've wrecked. I mean, if
51:02
Speaker 1: you're if you want to read the best of the
51:05
Speaker 1: Washington Post, you subscribe to The Atlantic right now because
51:09
Speaker 1: they've got some of the or the Wall Street Journal.
51:13
Speaker 1: Both of them have have hired quite a few folks.
51:17
Speaker 1: So it is it's been sad to see the basically
51:24
Speaker 1: people that I've respected and read for years begging Jeff
51:28
Speaker 1: Bezos not to do this. Right Ken Rosenthal, a former
51:32
Speaker 1: Post he's a baseball guy. He put it pretty buntly.
51:36
Speaker 1: Jeff Bezos's destruction of a great newspaper will be part
51:39
Speaker 1: of his legacy. Another former Post sports reporter, Rachel Nichols,
51:44
Speaker 1: defended the sports desk. They thinking about gutting the sports desk,
51:47
Speaker 1: which was which was an engine to that newsroom miss
51:49
Speaker 1: she called it one is one of the best damn
51:51
Speaker 1: reporting and writing groups on the planet. Anyway, I wish
51:57
Speaker 1: if he doesn't want the focus, if he doesn't want
52:04
Speaker 1: the attention from the President for being an owner of
52:07
Speaker 1: a news organization, don't got the news organization, don't do
52:12
Speaker 1: a catching kill, which is what you're turning this into,
52:15
Speaker 1: mister Bezos, meaning you're going to essentially strangle the Washington
52:19
Speaker 1: Post so it can no longer be a relevant news organization.
52:22
Speaker 1: Sell it to somebody else who doesn't mind practicing journalism
52:27
Speaker 1: without fear of favor, because you clearly don't want journalism
52:31
Speaker 1: practice without fear of favor. You fear Donald Trump, How
52:34
Speaker 1: do we know you spend seventy five million dollars on
52:36
Speaker 1: a bullshit movie about Milennia. That's how much you fear
52:39
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. And you're choking the Washington Post and making
52:43
Speaker 1: sure it's a less relevant organization. And never mind just
52:47
Speaker 1: screwing the business of the Post. Who thinks it's a
52:50
Speaker 1: good idea for the Washington Post to get smaller and
52:54
Speaker 1: to shrink its footprint and to not cover one of
52:58
Speaker 1: the most important communities in America and no longer cover
53:03
Speaker 1: it as a as a member of the community. It's
53:07
Speaker 1: a strange decision. Here's the good news. I've been in
53:09
Speaker 1: this independent space now for about a year or so.
53:15
Speaker 1: There's going to be Here's here's what's said. Is in
53:19
Speaker 1: a you know, in about a couple of years, somebody's
53:21
Speaker 1: going to realize what a disaster this was for the
53:23
Speaker 1: Post and they're going to try to bring everything back.
53:26
Speaker 1: And I promise you there'll be some thriving, local independent
53:30
Speaker 1: sports entity, just like Capital Weather Gang, which is really
53:34
Speaker 1: it was its own entity and then the Post brought
53:36
Speaker 1: it in. You're going to see it there. You're gonna
53:39
Speaker 1: see and and the Washington community will. We'll support these things.
53:44
Speaker 1: They want a local community newspaper, and the Washington Post
53:48
Speaker 1: still was that paper. But ever since they brought in
53:53
Speaker 1: this Will Lewis, he decided to turn it into some
53:57
Speaker 1: cheap Fleet Street rag. I mean, the editorial page is
54:01
Speaker 1: just a clown show. It is. It is sophomoric type
54:05
Speaker 1: of editorials that are written. They're rarely intellectually challenging. I mean,
54:10
Speaker 1: basically the only people that feel like are left worth
54:13
Speaker 1: reading are Karen Tumblty and George will And it's a
54:17
Speaker 1: bummer because there's a lot of I mean, the Post
54:21
Speaker 1: editorial page was one that wasn't always so predictable, and
54:26
Speaker 1: yet Bezos has gutted it and has gotten some Like
54:30
Speaker 1: I said, it feels like a parody at times, some
54:36
Speaker 1: of the some of the ways that these editorials are written.
54:39
Speaker 1: There's it. It's just I don't know how's to put it.
54:45
Speaker 1: It's just it just feels like like a bunch of
54:50
Speaker 1: college Republicans getting high in a dorm room writing editorials
54:54
Speaker 1: rather than, you know, rather than having what the editorial
54:59
Speaker 1: board was, which was you know, yes, it may have
55:01
Speaker 1: leaned left, but it was a pretty diverse editorial board.
55:05
Speaker 1: It certainly didn't lean left or right on national security
55:08
Speaker 1: issues or international issues. Domestically, it definitely was politically in
55:12
Speaker 1: one place, but not internationally and certainly not on some
55:16
Speaker 1: of these other things, and it was it was a shame.
55:21
Speaker 1: But to go back to what he's doing to the Post,
55:23
Speaker 1: here's a guy that didn't mind losing money for years
55:26
Speaker 1: on Amazon, knowing it eventually would be a great business.
55:31
Speaker 1: Why he never tackled the information ecosystem the same way
55:33
Speaker 1: as beyond Me. I go back to what I said before.
55:37
Speaker 1: He bought the Post as a trophy, and then the
55:41
Speaker 1: trophy became a problem. So then he decided instead of
55:46
Speaker 1: just selling the trophy, he didn't have to own it anymore.
55:49
Speaker 1: There were plenty of people who would buy the Washington Post,
55:54
Speaker 1: but he didn't. He chose to cut it. I hope
56:02
Speaker 1: all of these calls to him are heard and maybe
56:07
Speaker 1: he changes. You know, they've relented a little bit. Instead
56:10
Speaker 1: of sending nobody to cover the Olympics, they're going to
56:12
Speaker 1: send four reporters to cover the Olympics. Maybe he relents,
56:19
Speaker 1: and it doesn't look like it because something there's a
56:23
Speaker 1: lot of smoke on this one. So it's it's sad.
56:29
Speaker 1: I don't know any other way to put it. It's
56:32
Speaker 1: just sad what's happening. And it's painful, and boy, if
56:37
Speaker 1: they got sports and many of you know I'm pretty
56:41
Speaker 1: close to Tony Cornizer, I just can't imagine. I just
56:45
Speaker 1: can't believe they're going to do this. I hope the
56:48
Speaker 1: reporters want. Let me do a few questions, ask Chuck
57:05
Speaker 1: now right, I'm gonna do just three today. Part of
57:13
Speaker 1: its traveling part of it. I don't want to go
57:18
Speaker 1: too long here on this one. So first question comes from, Hey, Chuck,
57:23
Speaker 1: my name is Emily and I am from Oakdale, Minnesota,
57:25
Speaker 1: suburb of Minneapolising. Think Paul, excuse me, Ice is out
57:29
Speaker 1: here too. I have stories that would make your stomach
57:31
Speaker 1: churn and your blood boil. Anyway, I think I have
57:33
Speaker 1: a question that a lot of us have, how long
57:35
Speaker 1: is this going to last? But then it gets me
57:38
Speaker 1: thinking how long have we actually been in this already?
57:40
Speaker 1: When you look back at history, you hear about regimes
57:42
Speaker 1: that lasted for decades or longer. I'm coming to believe
57:45
Speaker 1: this is a great escalation of our freedom slipping away
57:48
Speaker 1: for some time, with the majority of the public myself
57:50
Speaker 1: included at times being the crabs and the crab pot
57:55
Speaker 1: Is this the beginning or the beginning of the end,
57:59
Speaker 1: well more optimistic. You're in a you're in a dark place,
58:03
Speaker 1: and I get it. I think if I were witnessing
58:06
Speaker 1: what you're witnessing, I might be there. I will just say,
58:11
Speaker 1: in our history, American history, no, no political movement lasts
58:19
Speaker 1: more than about a decade, you know, before it starts
58:22
Speaker 1: to wear thin, voters get exhausted from it, you know whatever.
58:26
Speaker 1: Everyone you know, there's this saying you know, you know,
58:29
Speaker 1: you know, and part of it, you know, the longer
58:34
Speaker 1: a political movement stays in power, the more corrupt guts right,
58:38
Speaker 1: because suddenly people get comfortable. Then they you know, start grifting.
58:43
Speaker 1: And this has of course been a next level clectocracy stuff.
58:49
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just blatantly pay to play, right. But
58:54
Speaker 1: I I think we're I think the worm's turning, and
58:57
Speaker 1: I know it's it's sometimes hard to see the closer
59:00
Speaker 1: you are to some of this stuff. But you look,
59:04
Speaker 1: he's got the lowest numbers he's ever had as sitting president.
59:07
Speaker 1: The economy is not in good shape, and people don't
59:10
Speaker 1: feel like it's going to get better. At best. Maybe
59:14
Speaker 1: we sort of stumble into status quo, but that doesn't
59:16
Speaker 1: make anybody feel better. You heard me talk about this
59:19
Speaker 1: at the beginning of this podcast. But the confidence people
59:22
Speaker 1: have about jobs being plentiful is cratering. Everything still feels
59:29
Speaker 1: like it's going to cost more. The tariffs create more instability,
59:33
Speaker 1: more instability. So I think this is a krabby electorate
59:38
Speaker 1: to borrow your you know, I think I think you
59:40
Speaker 1: were going for the boiled frog metaphor, but I'm gonna
59:44
Speaker 1: I'm gonna borrow the crab there that you cited. I
59:48
Speaker 1: think the electorate's pretty crabby. And you know, you have
59:53
Speaker 1: a lot of infighting in the president's base. You have
59:56
Speaker 1: a party that's starting to uh, that's starting to question
1:00:03
Speaker 1: its leader. Right we're seeing more of that. My confidence
1:00:08
Speaker 1: in the Democrats as a governing entity is not great,
1:00:11
Speaker 1: but they're not having to run to govern right now.
1:00:15
Speaker 1: They have the easiest message in the world to run on.
1:00:17
Speaker 1: Provide a check on Donald Trump. It's a simple message.
1:00:24
Speaker 1: And any time, especially there's a whole There have been
1:00:28
Speaker 1: books written about the so called six year itch, and
1:00:30
Speaker 1: this is essentially our We're in our six year of
1:00:33
Speaker 1: Trump in charge, and if you want to you know,
1:00:36
Speaker 1: and and he's certainly the four years that Biden was there.
1:00:38
Speaker 1: Trump was was sort of hovering over the entire right,
1:00:44
Speaker 1: entire president and the entire four years of that presidency.
1:00:50
Speaker 1: But I think this is an electorate that's I'm somebody
1:00:54
Speaker 1: who thinks this wave is building and that every month
1:00:57
Speaker 1: it's going to look more obvious that a lot of
1:01:02
Speaker 1: Republicans are going to get fired this year. And that's
1:01:04
Speaker 1: the way I'd still put it. I mean, we are
1:01:06
Speaker 1: we are still in this era of we know what
1:01:08
Speaker 1: we don't want, so we're going to keep firing, right.
1:01:12
Speaker 1: We have yet to find what we like. But but
1:01:16
Speaker 1: I think that this is this is how midterm elections
1:01:20
Speaker 1: can usually are about that, and this one feels like
1:01:24
Speaker 1: it's growing into a big time referendum on Trump and
1:01:27
Speaker 1: that is not going to go very well. The only
1:01:30
Speaker 1: thing is that that that gives them a boxer's chance.
1:01:35
Speaker 1: It's two things. Got that the repub that Trump has
1:01:38
Speaker 1: going for him the way these districts are drawn, and
1:01:42
Speaker 1: Republican's got a small victory in Virginia today. We'll see
1:01:45
Speaker 1: if that sets back the Virginia attempt to remap. And
1:01:49
Speaker 1: just this cycle of Senate seats that are up, it's
1:01:51
Speaker 1: not the easiest map for Democrats to pick up seats
1:01:55
Speaker 1: and it's not impossible, but it's not it's not a
1:01:57
Speaker 1: very easy map that that's it. Because the political environment,
1:02:04
Speaker 1: this is one of those things. It's getting more ominous
1:02:08
Speaker 1: by the day for Republicans. We'll see what happens with
1:02:12
Speaker 1: tax season. A lot of Republicans are betting that tax
1:02:15
Speaker 1: refund season is going to change enough perceptions about the
1:02:20
Speaker 1: economy that it's going to give Republicans a fighting chance
1:02:23
Speaker 1: at getting re elected to their majorities. I'm a bit
1:02:27
Speaker 1: more skeptical that tax refunds are going to have that
1:02:29
Speaker 1: kind of impact because they're immediately going to go to
1:02:32
Speaker 1: rising electricity costs, rising health care costs, and rising food costs.
1:02:37
Speaker 1: So whatever new money people, it's going to go. In
1:02:41
Speaker 1: some ways, it could end up bringing more attention to
1:02:47
Speaker 1: inflation and the rising cost of living because they'll think, oh,
1:02:52
Speaker 1: I've got this extra money. Wait, it's already gone. Where
1:02:55
Speaker 1: did it go? Rising electric bills, rising food costs, rising
1:03:00
Speaker 1: healthcare costs. So there you go. That's so I think
1:03:07
Speaker 1: we're I don't know if we're at the end of
1:03:09
Speaker 1: the Trump movement, but I definitely think we're at the end.
1:03:15
Speaker 1: We're at the end of we're coming, we're winding down
1:03:20
Speaker 1: the Trump era. That doesn't mean there might not be
1:03:24
Speaker 1: a dead cat bounce in twenty eight maybe Democrats inviting,
1:03:28
Speaker 1: you know, hands the presidency to them. But I think
1:03:31
Speaker 1: we're starting to see a slow rejection of Trump is.
1:03:37
Speaker 1: Next question comes from Patrick from Waterford, Michigan, and he writes,
1:03:40
Speaker 1: at what point does a blatant, provable lie from a
1:03:43
Speaker 1: politician amount to criminal fraud? That's interesting. I know that
1:03:47
Speaker 1: Congress and the President are immune due to the Speech
1:03:49
Speaker 1: and Debate Clause and the Presidential Immunity ruling, respectively. However,
1:03:53
Speaker 1: this does not cover the vice president, cabinet, governors and others.
1:03:55
Speaker 1: Does the First Amendment protect them regardless of the shamelessness
1:03:58
Speaker 1: of their lives? Best regards? Well, it really does. I mean,
1:04:01
Speaker 1: you know it in order to make now, I mean,
1:04:08
Speaker 1: you could file some lawsuits if you want to try,
1:04:10
Speaker 1: and they can become nuisance lawsuits. But this is where
1:04:18
Speaker 1: you know, if you're a political if you're running against
1:04:20
Speaker 1: these folks, you need to you need to let litigate
1:04:23
Speaker 1: your case, and you need to say they told you this,
1:04:27
Speaker 1: they lied to you. And I think that ultimately that's
1:04:36
Speaker 1: it goes back to something the you've got to go
1:04:39
Speaker 1: win elections, and the voters have to do this. The
1:04:43
Speaker 1: voters have to reject if you try to do this
1:04:46
Speaker 1: in any other way, if you look for a short
1:04:47
Speaker 1: cut they of the courts, via impeachment, via any other way.
1:04:53
Speaker 1: It isn't going to solve the larger problem. The voters
1:04:56
Speaker 1: are the only ones that can solve this larger problem.
1:05:00
Speaker 1: So make your case to the voters that JD. Vance's lying,
1:05:05
Speaker 1: or that CHRISTI Noman is lying. You know, make your
1:05:11
Speaker 1: case to the members of Congress. If they lie, it's
1:05:13
Speaker 1: up to Congress to hold them accountable. And this Congress
1:05:17
Speaker 1: has chosen not to do that. And this is where
1:05:20
Speaker 1: I think this is going to be an easy you know,
1:05:23
Speaker 1: A way to talk to voters of all parties is
1:05:26
Speaker 1: simply say, don't you want to see Congress hold any
1:05:34
Speaker 1: president accountable if they are violating the constitution, any cabinet
1:05:40
Speaker 1: secretary if they're violating the constitution. So I just think
1:05:44
Speaker 1: that I hear what you're saying. But ultimately, there's one
1:05:51
Speaker 1: jury that matters more than any other, and it's the
1:05:56
Speaker 1: it's the jury of registered voters. So make your case
1:06:00
Speaker 1: to them. That last question for the evening is gonna
1:06:06
Speaker 1: for now, It's going to come from Harvey R. He said,
1:06:08
Speaker 1: you said in your last podcast that the Georgia Center
1:06:10
Speaker 1: race is not really a race. I didn't say it
1:06:13
Speaker 1: that way. I said, I have downgraded it as a
1:06:16
Speaker 1: top tier race. What's the chance that asas big win
1:06:18
Speaker 1: catapults him to the nomination. I think you mean twenty
1:06:21
Speaker 1: twenty eight. I just think that that it's pretty clear
1:06:27
Speaker 1: this is a he's drawn a weaker field. And you know,
1:06:33
Speaker 1: Brian Kemp was probably the only Republican and maybe even
1:06:38
Speaker 1: Brad Raefensberger were probably one of the only two Republicans
1:06:41
Speaker 1: that I think could have been ass up in this
1:06:43
Speaker 1: political environment. And that's what you have to remember. This
1:06:45
Speaker 1: is going to be a pretty good political environment for
1:06:49
Speaker 1: Democrats in this midterm year. So I think, and you
1:06:55
Speaker 1: know this, none of these candidates stood out. I think
1:06:57
Speaker 1: I've I said an earlier podcast, I thought, Derek Dooley,
1:07:00
Speaker 1: if I words, if I think they are, he's a
1:07:05
Speaker 1: potential tougher foe for ASoft than either of the two
1:07:08
Speaker 1: members of Congress because their first name is Congress. Right.
1:07:12
Speaker 1: I don't think you want to be an outsider, being
1:07:14
Speaker 1: a former football coach might be better than being an
1:07:16
Speaker 1: incumbent member in Washington. But I think when you start
1:07:20
Speaker 1: to look at the amount of money Osof has, how
1:07:24
Speaker 1: how this primary is not producing a a a great candidate.
1:07:31
Speaker 1: Yet it still could and there's still plenty of time
1:07:33
Speaker 1: for that to happen. But I do think both Osoff
1:07:38
Speaker 1: and Warnock are you know, well, I don't know if
1:07:41
Speaker 1: Asoff runs for president and I don't know if Warnock runs,
1:07:45
Speaker 1: but you know, by the way our presidential candidate field
1:07:48
Speaker 1: keeps getting bigger on the Democratic side, So Mark, I
1:07:51
Speaker 1: think Mark Kelly's definitely more likely to run than not run.
1:07:53
Speaker 1: Now from Arizona, Rubin Gego wants to run so already.
1:07:57
Speaker 1: I mean, both of Arizona senators flirting with presidential campaigns.
1:08:02
Speaker 1: Are both Georgia senators going to do this? But I
1:08:07
Speaker 1: will say this, I think both Warnock and Asof are
1:08:10
Speaker 1: on the short list for any for any running mate.
1:08:13
Speaker 1: I mean, at this point, I think you're going to see,
1:08:16
Speaker 1: you know, a very simple running mate selection this time
1:08:21
Speaker 1: in that just pick a state, look at your map.
1:08:26
Speaker 1: What do you need double down on one of those states? Right?
1:08:30
Speaker 1: Is that Arizona's I mean one of the two. I mean,
1:08:33
Speaker 1: I think that could be Arizona, that could be Georgia,
1:08:36
Speaker 1: that could be North Carolina. But I think that's what
1:08:39
Speaker 1: you're gonna say is a little more simplified. Just do
1:08:44
Speaker 1: it the old fashioned way. Just go pick somebody from
1:08:47
Speaker 1: a state you need to carry, and in that sense,
1:08:51
Speaker 1: that could definitely put us off and Warnock in the
1:08:54
Speaker 1: top tier of that. All Right, I'm going to put
1:08:59
Speaker 1: a pin in this up episode since we're gonna I'm
1:09:01
Speaker 1: gonna see you in another twenty four hours, but it's
1:09:07
Speaker 1: a I will I will admit being a little weary
1:09:11
Speaker 1: from my own travels and shoveling of snow, So I'm
1:09:14
Speaker 1: going to go make sure I get a really good
1:09:17
Speaker 1: night's rest, and I will see you on this feed
1:09:20
Speaker 1: in twenty four hours. M h.