Latest / Real Estate Investing with RealDealCrew / Why Passive Real Estate Investing Doesn't Exist w/ John McNellis
Transcript
- 0:01Biggest lie in real estate that passive investment even exists.
- 0:05John McNellis has developed close to a hundred properties over the last forty five
- 0:11years,
- 0:11And he says every single one of them demanded daily attention,
- 0:15no exceptions. In this episode,
- 0:18you'll learn the two mistakes that wipe out most beginning developers.
- 0:22Why commercial real estate is weaker inflation hedge than most investors assume,
- 0:27and the one deal size John says nearly took his business down.
- 0:32if you want to build systems for your investing business.
- 0:35Check out RealDealCrew dot com.
- 0:37Let's get started.
- 0:43John McNollis joins me here today and I'm gonna direct everybody to his Amazon book.
- 0:49you can get that directly there.
- 0:51It's actually quite the deal right now.
- 0:54It's half off if you get the Kindle vers version,
- 0:56but making it in real estate thriving as a d developer.
- 1:01I'm gonna have that as a direct link in the show notes so it's easy
- 1:04for people to find it. Again, it is making it in real estate,
- 1:08thriving as a developer. Really appreciate your time here today,
- 1:12John.
- 1:14Jack, thank you. It's it's my pleasure to be with you.
- 1:17You've kinda had an interesting kind of journey into becoming a developer.
- 1:21You started off as a real estate attorney,
- 1:24right? Like what made you cause that jump?
- 1:26Well, actually just to possibly bore your listeners,
- 1:29I I started off as a journalist.
- 1:30I I was a journalism major in in college,
- 1:33mainly because I was a good typist and I didn't like homework.
- 1:36decided my senior year that it's one of the best decisions I ever made,
- 1:40Jack, was not to become a full time journalist.
- 1:43but I had no talent. wasn't any good at math or or science or anything else.
- 1:47So I went to law school.
- 1:49went to law school because I wanted to be,
- 1:50you like Perry Mason, you know,
- 1:52saving innocent people, going to court,
- 1:55you know, doing all that stuff.
- 1:56Joined a fancy law firm in San Francisco,
- 1:59figured out within I'd like to say two hours,
- 2:02but it was probably a few months before I realized that
- 2:05big time corporate litigation is absolutely nothing,
- 2:08nothing like TV or movies. It is soul killing.
- 2:12you're just
- 2:14You're becoming a professional paper warrior.
- 2:16Not to put too fine a point on it,
- 2:17you you're be you're becoming a professional asshole.
- 2:20and I hated it. But fortunately the firm was big enough it had
- 2:23a real estate department. So I shifted over to that after pleading with
- 2:26the managing partner. They they finally let me become a business lawyer.
- 2:30And I loved that. I loved helping guys buy,
- 2:32sell hotels, office buildings,
- 2:34shopping centers. but then I also realized.
- 2:37that I was making fifteen thousand a year and some guys who weren't that much older
- 2:41than I was, you know, the the the principals,
- 2:44the the guys that that you know my that we represented the money for,
- 2:48they they could be making a million bucks.
- 2:50And so I said, I've got to become a developer.
- 2:52So that's kind of how it happened.
- 2:53And it it was gradual but I started doing deals.
- 2:56I started doing little deals on the side.
- 2:58Like I bought my first duplex when I was twenty-four.
- 3:02And then I paid $25,000 for it,
- 3:04put down $1,500. And I was really lucky.
- 3:07This was in my let's call it crappy hometown.
- 3:10But it was a rising market in the mid 70s.
- 3:12Sold that the duplex that I bought for 25,
- 3:16sold it a year later for 60, traded the proceeds into a fourplex,
- 3:21sold that a year later for 120.
- 3:23So the 1500 bucks, which was my down payment.
- 3:27became like 90,000 in equity. And I said,
- 3:29wow, this is great. A lot more money than I was making as a lawyer.
- 3:32So that and then I teamed up how I got from doing call it rookie ball,
- 3:37you know, the house flipping and stuff like that.
- 3:40I teamed up with a a former client who was about 15 years older who
- 3:44was a shopping center developer and excellent developer,
- 3:47but he wasn't any good at at raising money.
- 3:49he was basically a poor salesman.
- 3:51and so I became his junior partner.
- 3:53I couldn't sell myself because I'm in my twenties,
- 3:56but I could point to my older grey haired partner and say,
- 3:59This guy's a great developer. Why don't you invest with us?
- 4:02Why don't you lend us money? And and we were off to the races.
- 4:05So is i what do you d work on working on today?
- 4:08What is your primary focus when it comes to development?
- 4:11All right, so we have this, because we've been doing this for the better part
- 4:13of 50 years. So we have a large portfolio of neighborhood shopping centers here
- 4:17in Northern California. Now, today,
- 4:19sorry folks, as far as I can tell,
- 4:21and I confirm this with every smart guy I know,
- 4:24from here to South Carolina, ground up development doesn't work except
- 4:28in really unique circumstances.
- 4:30Like you have a hospital that that that that is going to hire you to build
- 4:34it for them.
- 4:35Or you're building low income housing using public funds.
- 4:38But in my world, neighborhood shopping centers,
- 4:41retail, ground up doesn't work.
- 4:43So what we're doing today, Jack,
- 4:44we're doing much smaller deals that do work.
- 4:47We're working with quick serve restaurants,
- 4:49primarily Chick-fil-A, doing ground leases.
- 4:53So and so instead of doing a fifteen acre,
- 4:55excuse me, shopping center, we're doing one to two acre little f fast food things
- 5:00that that
- 5:01That do pencil and mainly because they're ground leases,
- 5:04so the tenants are taking the construction risk.
- 5:08Hmm. That's interesting. That's kind of a a sizable pivot then at at at some point.
- 5:14Like what made you or what you you mentioned that the the bigger development deals
- 5:19just don't pencil out anymore,
- 5:21but how did you find
- 5:22No, they don't.
- 5:23that that pivot or that niche to go after now?
- 5:27Well, the one of the great you s let's say there that depending on how you count it,
- 5:31there are five, six, seven different disciplines in commercial real estate hotel,
- 5:35office, multifamily, and so on.
- 5:37Retail is unique, Jack, in that we work with the same people year in,
- 5:42year out. You know, if you develop an office building,
- 5:45chances are you're gonna lease to its its tenants once,
- 5:48you know, it's one and done. You know,
- 5:50you you lease to a law firm, you move on.
- 5:51We on the other hand,
- 5:53We work with Walmart, we work with Ross,
- 5:55Safeway, Starbucks, same people year in,
- 5:59year out. And so y you develop a certain collegiality.
- 6:03It's in in a way it it's nicer because you're doing multiple deals,
- 6:07so you're not trying to screw somebody or or hopefully not get screwed
- 6:10on on one deal. You know, it's it's a much longer term approach.
- 6:14So it's almost like a fraternity.
- 6:16and by the way, folks, if if you're not in retail a hundred percent,
- 6:20I I wouldn't dabble in it. It's it's a little bit tricky as very much
- 6:23an insider's game. But the so as we've done these deals over the years
- 6:28and we have all these tenant contacts,
- 6:30you know, when one thing isn't working,
- 6:32you shift over and ask the tenants,
- 6:34gee, how can we work with you?
- 6:36How can we help you? and that that's
- 6:38So we started with Chick fil A,
- 6:40I know, four or five years ago,
- 6:41and now I think now we're on our fourth deal with them.
- 6:43Yeah, well I it I suppose there's a lot
- 6:44Yeah.
- 6:45of when it comes to consistency too,
- 6:48whether whether it's it's your deal flow or they know what to expect,
- 6:52they're they're likely gonna go with what's familiar and and predictable.
- 6:57That's right. and you know, each deal you deal with w with a tenant,
- 7:00it it's not a cookie cutter on the next deal,
- 7:02but it does get easier. You know,
- 7:03the lawyers get to know each other,
- 7:05you they kind of understand, you know,
- 7:07where the compromises are in a a lease or a purchase contract.
- 7:10and then if you can if you're smart,
- 7:13capable and honest and you deliver on time,
- 7:16you know, th that you get a lot more leeway,
- 7:18if you will, or a lot more acceptability.
- 7:21from the tenants. You know, they say,
- 7:22Okay, I can work with this guy.
- 7:23He's not going to embarrass me.
- 7:25You know, I'll go out on the limb with my real estate committee because
- 7:28I know McNellis is going to deliver this.
- 7:30So it it very my business pays off i if you're in a over the long time.
- 7:35So for someone trying to do their first real deal today,
- 7:38what are the biggest mistakes you see beginners make when they try to raise capital,
- 7:43pick a site or structure a project?
- 7:46Well yeah, that's funny. In the book,
- 7:47so this is the third edition of the book,
- 7:49Jack, and and and each one is it's the same book,
- 7:53it just gets longer and longer.
- 7:55In this last one, I I decided,
- 7:57hell, I'm old enough, I might as well just open the kimono,
- 8:00tell the truth and talk about my biggest mistakes.
- 8:02And so I list seven or eight of them.
- 8:04But I think by far in by far and away,
- 8:07the number one mistake that particularly beginners make is paying too much.
- 8:11You know, the
- 8:12you're starting out in the business,
- 8:14you really need to get a deal done.
- 8:15You know, you've you've left your paying job and you've you've got to close,
- 8:19you need those fees. And so what do you do?
- 8:21And you're inexperienced, you pay too much.
- 8:24And it's really hard to recover from that.
- 8:27You know, it it may be that you you paid so much that the development that
- 8:31you do will in essence just get you back to break-even that you gave away
- 8:36the development profits.
- 8:37to your sell your wily seller from day one.
- 8:40I think that's the biggest mistake.
- 8:42Second biggest, also much more common among beginners and rookies,
- 8:46is overleveraging. I mean, o you know this,
- 8:49overleveraging works great in a raging bull market,
- 8:52but the bull market always comes to a halt.
- 8:55The carousel always stops. And if you're overleveraged and and then whoops,
- 9:00I I can't sell this thing and I've got
- 9:02debt which a couple of years ago was three plus percent and now it's what,
- 9:06nearly seven percent, you get wiped out that way.
- 9:09I I and th those are the two biggest mistakes.
- 9:11but I think I list ten in in my book.
- 9:14We can go on and on about the mistakes I've made because Lord knows I've made them
- 9:18all.
- 9:18Well, out of that out of those ten mistakes,
- 9:21which one hurt the most?
- 9:22It's it's kind of like a car accident.
- 9:24It usually takes more than one you know,
- 9:27one bit of negligence. the one that hurt the most,
- 9:29let's see, we wildly overpaid.
- 9:33we we had a hundred and three percent financing,
- 9:37which means that we bought this shopping center in nineteen eighty-three
- 9:41for about all in about twenty million,
- 9:43which is about sixty million in in today's dollars,
- 9:45which
- 9:46In today's time, we've never done a deal that size again.
- 9:49so we overpaid, over leveraged,
- 9:52and then we tried to overdevelop it.
- 9:54in other words, what we should have kept this was a a a community center that
- 9:58was badly in need of a a major renovation.
- 10:01And we tried to take it too far upscale,
- 10:04yeah as opposed to just, you know,
- 10:06solving the problems and keeping it a mid-range convenience center.
- 10:09So
- 10:09That so overdeveloping was the third.
- 10:11Failing to to pivot, to recognize our mistakes,
- 10:15which is you know, you know, that try try again thing.
- 10:19I don't think that Okay, okay,
- 10:21let's stop here. If persistence is not among your like top ten character traits,
- 10:26you shouldn't be a developer, right?
- 10:27You know, it it is hard what we do,
- 10:29and you're always encountering all kinds of resistance.
- 10:32But that said, you've got to learn.
- 10:34when to stop persisting, you know,
- 10:36when to say, whoops, this isn't working,
- 10:38you know, we gotta stop climbing this mountain because we're gonna get stuck here.
- 10:42So we failed to do that. And I think those four mistakes w w took us
- 10:47all the way down on that one. And we lost the property to Fort
- 10:49Was it a situation where
- 10:50it kind of snowballed? You know,
- 10:52you're just you had you started off with a a bad foundation,
- 10:56if you will, and then you just kind of things kind of took off from there.
- 10:59Well
- 11:00l l like like like I say, if if you overpay,
- 11:03you don't have a found you know,
- 11:05you you have a broken foundation.
- 11:07It you just you can't dig yourself out of,
- 11:10you know, that hole unless you've got perhaps runaway inflation or or
- 11:14you get truly lucky.
- 11:16Mm-hmm.
- 11:17So you talked about the get rich slow business.
- 11:21What does that mean in real estate and why do so many people lose money
- 11:25by ignoring that idea?
- 11:26Well, I I think what drives me k another reason the that I I put
- 11:30in this whole section on losing money,
- 11:33or you know, I kind of joke about this here here are the ten best ways
- 11:36to lose money. So I just want to make one point clear to everybody who's listening
- 11:39to this. Jack, if you do more than a handful of deals,
- 11:42if you do say ten real estate deals,
- 11:44you are going to lose money. you're absolutely guaranteed to lose money.
- 11:48You know the
- 11:49business climate is just like the weather climate.
- 11:52There are just too many variables,
- 11:53you know, that can hit you, you know,
- 11:55and it takes three, four, five years,
- 11:57you know, to get from the time you first see a deal until the time everything
- 12:00is set. You don't know COVID is the best example.
- 12:03you and I could have been geniuses in 2019,
- 12:06bought something that we knew was just going to be a home run,
- 12:09and boom, you know, we get hit by COVID.
- 12:11So the reason
- 12:13I yeah, I just want everyone to know that you're going to lose money.
- 12:16So th the trick is to not you know,
- 12:18and the other mistake that that we made is i if you if you know you're gonna lose
- 12:23money, if you do let's say ten deals in a row and each one,
- 12:27just for to keep it simple, is a million dollar deal where you hope
- 12:30to make a hundred thousand dollars,
- 12:31that's great. So at the end at the end of and you do one a year for ten years,
- 12:35you made a million dollars, right?
- 12:37A hundred thousand on each one.
- 12:39But maybe on the eighth or ninth deal,
- 12:41you don't make money, you lose,
- 12:43but you're still doing that million dollar deal,
- 12:45you're in the game. You know, yeah,
- 12:47it's gonna hurt, you lost a hundred thousand,
- 12:49and so instead of and maybe you lose on two deals,
- 12:52maybe at the end of the time you've lost a couple hundred you've lost
- 12:55a hundred thousand on two and made a hundred thousand on eight,
- 12:58and so what you're you're six hundred thousand ahead or something like that.
- 13:02But if you do, and this is another mistake we made with that big deal.
- 13:05We went from well in the space of that twenty-five thousand dollar duplex I bought,
- 13:12that was in seventy-six, eighty-three.
- 13:14So in the space of seven years,
- 13:16we went from twenty-five thousand dollars up to a twenty million dollar deal,
- 13:19which is kind of like gambling,
- 13:22and putting you know, playing blackjack and going all in each time.
- 13:27You're just not gonna work.
- 13:29And so we we came I wouldn't say we came close to personal bankruptcy,
- 13:33but that project that was called Birdcage Walk,
- 13:36it did go into bankruptcy, and we did lose it.
- 13:40But you know, we survived. But again,
- 13:43had we taken a kind of a longer term view and stuck with instead of
- 13:48a twenty million dollar deal at that time,
- 13:49maybe one that was three or four million,
- 13:51that we would have been much better off.
- 13:53So you've cum completed eighty plus projects and kept full ownership through
- 13:57internal capital. How did you build a business model around control
- 14:02and patience instead of chasing this and chasing the scale?
- 14:05Great question. Actually, we've done close to a hundred deals over
- 14:09the last forty-five plus years.
- 14:11And we don't do a lot, Jack. So it's a a couple of deals a year.
- 14:14and you know, you s you stick around long enough,
- 14:16they add up. so in the early days,
- 14:18you know, I s if you put your thumb and forefinger together,
- 14:20this is what my net worth was.
- 14:21So you we had to start with other people's money.
- 14:25when I told you I teamed up with an older developer,
- 14:28I was the money raiser, so I would go
- 14:30on our first big shopping center deal we did,
- 14:32which we still own, I I went door to door,
- 14:34you know, to raise twenty-five thousand dollars at a pop to get the
- 14:37the the million dollars up. And then and this is what happens to everybody,
- 14:41if if you're meant for success in on a larger scale in commercial real estate,
- 14:45you start with nothing, you go with friends and family,
- 14:49but pretty soon, unless your name is Rockefeller,
- 14:51you run out of friends and family money,
- 14:53and then you move on to institutional partners.
- 14:57And that's what we did throughout the eighties.
- 14:58that project we lost, we had a big time savings and loan as our our partner on it.
- 15:03Well, by the time the nineties came around,
- 15:05and we had three or four institutional partners during the eighties.
- 15:10The nineties, the beginning was a terrible recession,
- 15:13you know right up there with the Great Recession.
- 15:15And then I came to the realization that I'd much rather have
- 15:19a hundred percent ownership of a small deal,
- 15:21a hundred percent ownership of a
- 15:24say a gas station, a million dollar deal,
- 15:26or a McDonald's, rather than ten percent of a ten million dollar deal
- 15:30or one percent of a hundred million dollar deal,
- 15:32no outside partners. So we c cobbled together what what capital we had on our own.
- 15:37So this is 35 years ago now, and decided no more financial partners,
- 15:42no more big deals and no more sixty million dollar deals that that could go awry.
- 15:46And we started doing much smaller deals,
- 15:48two, three, four, five million dollar deals.
- 15:51and how did we do those? You know,
- 15:52there's an old joke, you know,
- 15:54where the line says, We buy junk and sell antiques.
- 15:57You know, so we buy little centers,
- 15:59fix them up, just like fixing up a house,
- 16:02and then trade into the next one.
- 16:03And so and we s we basically sold two out of three.
- 16:06I think our portfolio is around thirty properties now.
- 16:10And not all the shopping centers,
- 16:11by the way, but the majority. but we would buy
- 16:15We'd sell one, you know, to buy the next and pull a little cash off the table.
- 16:20Hmm. Just to remind everybody,
- 16:22we're talking to John McNellis.
- 16:23You can learn what he can help you with,
- 16:26especially through his book. I'm gonna have that as a clickable link
- 16:29in the show notes directly to Amazon.
- 16:31Look for making it in real estate,
- 16:33thriving as a developer. And if you found some value in what we're chatting about
- 16:37so far, do us a favor, share this with one of your friends.
- 16:40If you're watching us on YouTube,
- 16:41give us a like and subscribe.
- 16:44So John, I'm hoping you'll spend a little time talking about your mindset
- 16:48on a couple of things. One of them is y when you had that project that went south
- 16:53on you, it kind of throws people off.
- 16:56I mean, you you may not tr no longer trust your your own compass at that point.
- 17:00What did you decide or how did you work through that mentally in order
- 17:05to just like stay the course and keep doing what you're doing?
- 17:08Well, I'm a relatively quick study,
- 17:10Jack. So I a in hindsight, a as things were going down,
- 17:13I pretty well figured out, you know,
- 17:15what we had done wrong. and and part of it was in in just as
- 17:19the old expression goes, being too big for our britches,
- 17:22you know, trying to do a deal.
- 17:23In my net worth in when we bought the this shopping center on a sunny day.
- 17:28this was in nineteen eighty three,
- 17:29was maybe a million bucks. And and that was all in partnership equity
- 17:34in in our handful of real estate deals that we'd finished already.
- 17:38So my liquidity was again thumb and forefinger.
- 17:41So d one thing I realized it was crazy for me to be signing twenty million dollars
- 17:45worth of loan documents. You know,
- 17:47now they they were non recourse,
- 17:49but still, you know, I it was that was a a big mistake.
- 17:52So
- 17:53I think I I did learn from all that.
- 17:55And again, it was in the wake of that that of that fiasco that we decided to pivot,
- 18:01do smaller deals, not have financial partners,
- 18:04and be much more conservative.
- 18:06so we rather than and then going for a lot of financing,
- 18:09we went the other route. so we have as prob we try to have as little debt
- 18:14as we possibly can. In fact, our overall portfolio debt on the whole
- 18:1930 odd properties is well below twenty percent.
- 18:22You know, we just don't love debt anymore.
- 18:24So taking the the the get rich slow approach,
- 18:27you know, less debt, more equity,
- 18:29long term approach, is how it it's worked out well for us.
- 18:33Well, it's that over leverage situation again,
- 18:36right? Like you you've pointed out that you it sounds like you have
- 18:39a significant equity. It really allows you the benefit of weathering
- 18:44any kind of storm that might be coming your way.
- 18:46It does. It it does. I think Warren Buffett said,
- 18:50you know, you have to be an idiot to lose money in real estate if you
- 18:53own it free and clear. It I mean it it's really hard to lose money because then
- 18:58the you know you're only even if it's empty,
- 19:00you're only paying taxes and insurance on it.
- 19:02so yeah, I like the conservative approach.
- 19:05What drives me crazy, it and one one reason I you know I made that
- 19:09Let's call it my public service announcement that for anybody who's serious about
- 19:13investing in real estate, you know you're gonna lose money.
- 19:15I'm saying that because I'm so tired of seeing these guys on TV or podcasts
- 19:20or these how easy it is to get rich,
- 19:22you know, get filthy rich overnight in real estate.
- 19:25You know, they make it sound like it's a piece of cake.
- 19:27And it it is not. commercial real estate,
- 19:30all real estate, it's hard. it's lots of ways to lose money and you just have
- 19:34to stick with it.
- 19:35Yeah, I'm gonna age myself a little bit,
- 19:36but you know, it was not uncommon to turn on late night TV and real estate
- 19:42was just mailbox money. Easy, easy peasy.
- 19:45Yeah. Yeah, I I think you're right.
- 19:47And I I think the biggest lie in real estate,
- 19:49and and let's face it, our our business is full of lies.
- 19:52The biggest lie is passive real estate investment.
- 19:55there's no such thing. You know,
- 19:57I c I again, we have a f a fairly sizable portfolio every single day.
- 20:01You know, there's a leaking roof,
- 20:03there's a tenant moving out, there's a tenant going bankrupt,
- 20:06there's landscaping people who aren't doing what they're supposed to do.
- 20:10You know, it
- 20:11Every single day the the the properties need attention.
- 20:14and so I anyone who says, gee,
- 20:16I'm I'm gonna buy this and ignore it for you know,
- 20:19yeah you can do that, but you'll pay for it.
- 20:21Okay. You buy a little property and if you don't stay on top of it.
- 20:25You you already kind of alluded to some of this r regarding the
- 20:29our our belief system as as real estate investors,
- 20:33but I have heard some investors claim that commercial real estate
- 20:39is the perfect inflation hedge.
- 20:41Why do you think that belief is often overstated or just flat out wrong?
- 20:45Yeah, it that that is absolute crap.
- 20:47All right. Here here's the hard facts.
- 20:50Inflation for Jack, for the last hundred years,
- 20:52you can check this, listeners,
- 20:53you can check this. Inflation year year in,
- 20:56year out in America has averaged 3% a year.
- 20:583%. EnCrief, which is the the the the fancy nonprofit board that
- 21:04the it's a national council of real estate investment funds,
- 21:08I think that's what it's called.
- 21:10N.Creef did a study for the last 50 years because data didn't go back any farther.
- 21:14That commercial real estate, and they were talking about the best commercial real
- 21:17estate, like core office towers or core shopping centers,
- 21:21averaged annual appreciation of 1.37%.
- 21:25So you got 3% inflation, 1.3% in appreciation in commercial real estate.
- 21:30They they make the point, which is obvious.
- 21:32That commercial real estate is much more like a bond than a stock,
- 21:36in that all the return is in the cash flow.
- 21:39So that that same 1.37, it pushed up to a little bit over eight over
- 21:44the last 50 years because of the six six plus percent cash flow on it.
- 21:49So my point is that in the way this without having thought through this strategy,
- 21:53the way it worked out, if you buy a
- 21:56piece of dirt or an old broken down building and you rebuild it.
- 21:59it's it's like a growth stock.
- 22:02You know, you buy it for a million,
- 22:03you put a couple of million into it,
- 22:05and you hope to sell it for five million.
- 22:07But on the day that it's done,
- 22:09the day that it's at full market rent,
- 22:11a hundred percent leased, that if you look at it,
- 22:13and it's no one believes me, but you really should sell it on that day.
- 22:17Because from that point forward,
- 22:20what you've all you've created,
- 22:21you've gone from a growth stock
- 22:23but and you've grown to its peak,
- 22:25you've created a bond that that it will appreciate that one make one
- 22:29and a half percent a year. it'll have good cash flow.
- 22:32But if you take that same money take your money no one wants to do this,
- 22:37but everyone has to pay taxes,
- 22:38pay the taxes and and take the net proceeds and put it in the S P five hundred,
- 22:43which is averaged like eleven percent,
- 22:45you know, over the last fifty years.
- 22:47You'd be way better off. And no.
- 22:49So in short, it's real estate is not a great inflation hedge.
- 22:52We are signing leases today. you know,
- 22:56that that first center that I built 45 years ago,
- 22:58we still own it. We're signing leases today that are not that much greater than they
- 23:03were, you know, 40 years ago or 20 years ago.
- 23:05In fact, we just had a fast food hell,
- 23:08I'll mention it, Carls Jr.
- 23:10Just declared bankruptcy on one of our pads.
- 23:12Again, no such thing as a passive investment.
- 23:14And we're looking at the rents.
- 23:16And the rents actually market rents will probably are lower than what this guy's
- 23:20paying today. So, no, I no, I love real estate.
- 23:22It's a great it's a great way to make a lot of money.
- 23:25but I think once you get to a certain level of success,
- 23:27you really ought to think about diversifying out of it and getting s some money into
- 23:32the equities.
- 23:34And the simple way to do that is just to invest in in the S P five hundred.
- 23:37Well, it's it sounds like you primarily or or in this day and age,
- 23:41you kind of focus on that retail space,
- 23:44maybe even some mixed use. In the world where people have kind
- 23:48of written off retail, what separates retail properties that thrive from ones that
- 23:53become value traps?
- 23:54Well, first, if you don't mind my trying to correct here,
- 23:57retail along about 2005 or 2006,
- 24:01in all the pundits said retail is dead.
- 24:04The internet's going to kill retail.
- 24:06And in fact, even a few years before that,
- 24:08if you remember, there was WebVAN,
- 24:10which was the first big online supermarket chain,
- 24:13that came around about 1998 and it was going to
- 24:18Turn my world, you know, topsy turvy,
- 24:20eliminate all the bricks and mortar markets.
- 24:22Well, that didn't happen. And then retail was not a darling investment among
- 24:27you know the institutions, the Wall Street folks,
- 24:29because of that fear that the internet was going to kill it.
- 24:33What's happened, and particularly in my world,
- 24:34which is neighborhood shopping centers,
- 24:37and by that I mean a supermarket on one end,
- 24:39used to be a drugstore on the other.
- 24:41But a bank, pizza, nail, hair,
- 24:43you know, what they call essential retail.
- 24:46That came through COVID with flying colors.
- 24:49you know, we were shut down briefly here in California for a little while
- 24:52by the governor, but once we reopened,
- 24:54r that retail has done really well.
- 24:56So now we're back to being kind of a darling investment,
- 24:59well above all of course, all the sectors are above office,
- 25:03but above multifamily and so on.
- 25:05So I
- 25:06I I think reta retail now using the word retail is kind of a broad brush.
- 25:11There at least five or six categories of retail.
- 25:14I guess a little strip center,
- 25:15and by that I mean a a a seven eleven and a gas station to a little bit larger,
- 25:21maybe a small convenience center that has maybe ten or twenty thousand feet.
- 25:25Our niche is called a neighborhood center,
- 25:27and that's ten acres roughly, a hundred thousand feet,
- 25:30supermarket. That I think
- 25:33has been the sweet spot. Where it gets a lot diicier are the the big centers,
- 25:37the the community centers, the big box centers.
- 25:40they have had issues and the ones that survive there do so largely because that they
- 25:45have great locations. And then everybody knows about the the problem
- 25:49of enclosed malls. You know that that that's been around forever.
- 25:52You know that that's you could call that a distant cousin to what I do.
- 25:56The enclosed malls
- 25:58I think very few of them are are are are doing brilliantly,
- 26:02but you know, some are and usually the the only the ones in you know,
- 26:05like the the highest income areas.
- 26:07Hmm. Well, l let's give the listeners something practical to maybe kick kick
- 26:14things off. Let's say somebody is listening to this and they want
- 26:18to become a developer instead of the f looking for that passive route.
- 26:22What should they focus on in the next twelve months that could actually lead them
- 26:27to their first deal?
- 26:28All right, well, when people come to see me,
- 26:30which is fairly frequent, I know but I tell everybody it's this is
- 26:34the age old advice, you know, there's nothing new under the sun.
- 26:37I say the best way to start out as a developer is to find the archetype worst house
- 26:43in the best neighborhoods you can afford.
- 26:45Buy the little house, do the work yourself,
- 26:48fix it up, you know, paint it,
- 26:50put in the petunias, put in the the the new countertops and sell it.
- 26:54You know
- 26:55Well at least here in California and I think in most places in the US,
- 26:58there's a pretty much a zero vacancy rate for single family residential.
- 27:03So in every other discipline, hotels,
- 27:06office, retail, you have a vacancy factory.
- 27:08You could build something and unlike the movie,
- 27:12nobody comes and you can get wiped out.
- 27:14If you do a a small house, that
- 27:17You may not make any money, but you know you can unload it.
- 27:20You can rent it, you can sell it,
- 27:21because there's just s such a pent-up housing demand.
- 27:24And what I like about it, Jack,
- 27:26is it has all the components. You know,
- 27:28you've got to negotiate it, you've got to work with the broker,
- 27:31do the contract, work with the escrow company,
- 27:34work with a contractor, work with the brokers to sell it.
- 27:36All the components are there that we do on much larger deals.
- 27:41But it's a great training wheels deal because the the risk is considerably less.
- 27:45So that's if if you're starting your own business,
- 27:48that that's what I would say. If you want to go to work for somebody else,
- 27:50it you're and you'll start out,
- 27:52you even if you work for a development firm,
- 27:54you're not going to start as a developer.
- 27:56You know, no it's kind of like movie director.
- 27:58Nobody starts as a developer. Even if your father owns the company,
- 28:02you're going to start out as a probably an assistant property manager
- 28:05or an assistant leasing agent to work your way up.
- 28:08Well, one more time you can learn more by looking up John's book,
- 28:11John McNillis, and it's called Making It In Real Estate Thriving as a Developer.
- 28:17That's gonna be a clickable link in the show notes directly to Amazon where
- 28:21you can pick it up. John, before we dive into the rapid fire and start closing
- 28:26out this episode, is there anything else we should have tried to hit on today?
- 28:29No, I think you've covered the waterfront.
- 28:31but any questions you've got, h happy happy to s shoot it.
- 28:34But thanks.
- 28:35Well, if you're ready, sir, we're gonna dive into the rapid fire and close
- 28:38out this episode.
- 28:39Shoot.
- 28:40What lie do real estate investors often tell themselves?
- 28:44that the property that they're looking at,
- 28:46if it just had much better management,
- 28:49would be betch but you th the one of the big lies in the business is gee,
- 28:52you can buy this and turn this this property around because the the seller
- 28:56is just a bad property manager.
- 28:57And and you know, you you could turn this around with with love and care,
- 29:01and that's often not the case.
- 29:02Usually the the sellers are as professional as you are,
- 29:05and and whatever problem that the particular property have,
- 29:08it it may be endemic to the property.
- 29:11So there's one lie.
- 29:12If you could go back in time and give your younger self one piece of advice,
- 29:16what would it be?
- 29:17Yeah, I don't date anyone named Debbie,
- 29:21that that comes to to mind. No.
- 29:23Ha ha ha.
- 29:24I'd probably let me think about that.
- 29:26You know, even that that center where it was a terrible loss,
- 29:30Jack, out of that the there was a young woman there who was the then
- 29:34the assistant on-site property manager,
- 29:36who be gradually became the property manager of that property
- 29:40and then gradually became
- 29:42my full time partner. So Beth Walter's been with me f for since nineteen eighty
- 29:46three, so that's forty three years.
- 29:47You know, and I in her presence,
- 29:50I have said that I would do that deal over again and go through all
- 29:54the the the pain, the Sturmandrung,
- 29:57just to get her as a partner. So I you know you know,
- 30:00I th I don't know. I just tell my younger self,
- 30:02just don't be such a jerk and and and stick to it.
- 30:05But anyway,
- 30:06Even in in deals you lose, y you you learn a lot.
- 30:09That's I guess what I'm trying to say.
- 30:10Was there anything in your business that you optimized,
- 30:14automated, anything like that that you implemented made a significant change
- 30:19and you wish you would have done sooner?
- 30:21No, you the you're asking the wrong guy on that.
- 30:23I I if you saw my desk, you'll see I still keep a paper calendar.
- 30:27So I I'm kind of living firmly in the nineteenth century,
- 30:30which makes booking things a little bit difficult.
- 30:32But no, we're not that automated.
- 30:34And on that, I keep listening to guys who are must say much more cutting edge than
- 30:39we are. And I've yet to hear someone say that that here is a killer
- 30:43AI app that really makes some part of our real estate.
- 30:47a business, real estate development business easier.
- 30:49I'm sure that's gonna come down the pike,
- 30:51but I haven't seen it yet.
- 30:52Well, leading into what single tool or process have you implemented that
- 30:57has had the biggest time saving impact?
- 30:59I think it's time saving. You know what I really love is Google Earth Pro.
- 31:03So that really does save time because you will call me and you'll say,
- 31:08Hey John, I've got this great site in this town.
- 31:11And to remind you, we're pretty much limited to limit ourselves rather
- 31:15to Northern California. But you'll say,
- 31:17I've got th this great site in a Hollister.
- 31:20And the old days, I you know
- 31:22you're a good friend, I would trust you,
- 31:24I'd go out and look at it and I'd say,
- 31:25Whoops, Jack, you missed the fact that,
- 31:27you know, there's a graveyard across the street or,
- 31:30you know, that there there there's no right turn access into the property.
- 31:34So now y while you call me, I just say,
- 31:37What's the address? And I just type in,
- 31:40go to Google Earth, put in the address,
- 31:41pull up the big screen, look at it,
- 31:43and I can see exactly you know,
- 31:45what's going on at that site. Whether there is
- 31:49good access, whether there is good good visibility.
- 31:51it works brilliantly for retail.
- 31:54Well, John, this was fantastic.
- 31:55Again, I'm gonna have a clickable link to your book on Amazon.
- 31:59It's called Making It in Real Estate,
- 32:01Thriving as a Developer. And but I really appreciate your time here today.
- 32:05This was great to chat with you,
- 32:06great to meet you and hope you'll come come back again real soon.
- 32:10Thank you, Jack. My pleasure. Hope your listeners found it useful.