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ISM Manufacturing & the Burning Hot Economy · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: my co host Matt Millah. Every business day we bring
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Now, I want to
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: bring in Timothy fiora chairman of the Manufacturing Business Survey
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: from the Institute for Supply Management. We saw a beat
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: tim today and um again over the previous figure. What
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: does this tell us about, you know, the reopening of
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: the US economy. Good morning, Pol, morning Matt. So this
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  Speaker 1: is the fourth month over sixty man, We're we are
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: burning hot. So this is the second highest pm I
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  Speaker 1: number that we've seen since May of o for and
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  Speaker 1: this number is better than any number that we saw
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  Speaker 1: in the nine run up that was probably one of
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  Speaker 1: the highest quality manufacturing run ups that we've had in
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  Speaker 1: the last twenty year. So things are really off in
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  Speaker 1: very well, except we've got issues on the labor side.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, this number would have been stronger if if
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  Speaker 1: the employment number at our panelists companies would have been
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  Speaker 1: allowed to grow. And you know, clearly with the supply
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  Speaker 1: delivery number being as highed as they're struggling with still
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  Speaker 1: attracting people back to the workforce. So it's all the
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  Speaker 1: whole issue now is people coming back to the workforce
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  Speaker 1: because there's plenty of demand there and plenty of backblog
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  Speaker 1: to work on. Talk to us about this supply chain.
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  Speaker 1: We know we keep hearing stories about how a lot
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  Speaker 1: of these manufacturers are finding trouble or having trouble finding
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  Speaker 1: the raw materials and on a timely basis, how's that
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  Speaker 1: impacting the numbers that you look at tim Well, we
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  Speaker 1: have a record lead time, so we've never had lead
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  Speaker 1: times extended out this long ever. UH had many panelists
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: comment about they've never been years in the businesses, They've
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: never seen a combination of shortages, lead time extensions and
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  Speaker 1: price increases like they've seen over the last six or
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: nine months. So you know, if you peel the whole
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  Speaker 1: thing back, it's the supply community is having trouble getting
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  Speaker 1: people to response to work request to we we had
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  Speaker 1: my employment comments were companies trying to hire and of
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: that said that they are having difficulty and hiring that's
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  Speaker 1: a really dramatic number. On the sentiment side, we had
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  Speaker 1: thirty six for every one person who was really positive
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  Speaker 1: about the future. That's I've never seen a number that high.
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  Speaker 1: And from an employment standpoint, we have twelve people trying
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  Speaker 1: to hire with one person trying to a trip or
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  Speaker 1: freeze or hiring manpower style, so all really positive numbers here.
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  Speaker 1: The horizon looks very strong. This number would have been
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  Speaker 1: quite a bit higher if if our panelist companies could
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  Speaker 1: have hired more. You know, at the fifty point four
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  Speaker 1: fifty point nine number on the employment compared to all
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  Speaker 1: the others that we're getting closest to a sixty and
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  Speaker 1: sixty five. That was the whole story. Inventories, the shelves
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: are empty. Tim or is the hiring problem because they're
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: not paying enough. I mean, um, you know, I'll do
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  Speaker 1: probably anything for you if you double my salary. But
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  Speaker 1: but obviously there are some things that I can't do
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  Speaker 1: because I don't know how to. Is it a skill
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  Speaker 1: issue or is it a wage issue? Well, it's competition.
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  Speaker 1: So everybody has been paying more. They've been paying bonuses,
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  Speaker 1: they've been paying hazard pay, signing bonuses, referrals and they've
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: been increasing wages to to attract more people. At some
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  Speaker 1: point you kind of cap out because this kind of
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  Speaker 1: imbalance in the labor market doesn't last forever for the
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  Speaker 1: wage increased us. So people are kind of saying, Okay,
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  Speaker 1: I've done as far as I can go. I'm not
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  Speaker 1: going to pay through the dollars an hour for a
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  Speaker 1: twenty dollar an hour job because I'm stuck with it.
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  Speaker 1: I'd have to lay everybody off at the end of
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  Speaker 1: this thing to get back down to the right cost structure.
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  Speaker 1: So we're kind of frozen and you get the combination now. Though.
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  Speaker 1: The good thing is you get the summertime coming, so
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  Speaker 1: people know how to deal with their children in the summertime.
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  Speaker 1: The school issue is no longer an issue, so that's
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  Speaker 1: off the table. There's twenty states that have that have
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  Speaker 1: decided to suspend federal support on the unemployment side and
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  Speaker 1: the special unemployment. I think that's a really good thing.
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  Speaker 1: There's a lot of states are trying to get people
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  Speaker 1: back to work and paying them. That sets up a conflict.
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  Speaker 1: Uh So, I think this thing is going to run
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  Speaker 1: with us though until the end of September, because we
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  Speaker 1: got thirty states that aren't withdrawing the federal support. So
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  Speaker 1: number one, you get the employment issue for the schooling
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  Speaker 1: issue going away. We're in the summertime. People know how
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  Speaker 1: to take care of the kids in the summertime. It's
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  Speaker 1: no longer do when they go to class or not.
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  Speaker 1: And then the second thing here is that we're withdrawing
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  Speaker 1: that financial incentive for people to kind of debate about
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  Speaker 1: whether they should stay home or not. But there are
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  Speaker 1: still thirty states that are not doing that. So by
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  Speaker 1: the time we get to September October, this whole thing
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  Speaker 1: should kind of clear up. In the meantime, there's plenty
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  Speaker 1: of work out there. There's plenty of business. We just
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  Speaker 1: need the people to come in to do it, all right,
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  Speaker 1: and thanks so much for joining us. Just some historic
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  Speaker 1: numbers coming out on the other side of this. Again,
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  Speaker 1: there were historic going into it as we think about
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  Speaker 1: a year ago, and we're starting to see the flip
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  Speaker 1: side of that here, certainly from the manufacturing site extraordinary numbers,
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  Speaker 1: Tim Fury, chairman, the Manufacturing Business Survey for the Institute
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: for Supply Management, and the numbers matter just you know,
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: straordinary and the labors a key issues as we heard
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  Speaker 1: from Tim well, certainly as we begin to emerge from
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  Speaker 1: this pandemic and the economic carnage caused by it. You
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  Speaker 1: just need to walk down Main Street USA around this
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  Speaker 1: country and you see so many vacant storefronts here and
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  Speaker 1: it becomes so apparent how small businesses were really impacted
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  Speaker 1: by this economic disruption and questions how will they recover
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  Speaker 1: on the other side of a. J. Demarto, he's had
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: of commercial distribution at TD Bank. They have a small
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  Speaker 1: business survey and lots of cool information. Jay, thanks so
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  Speaker 1: much for joining us here. Again, it seems like small
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  Speaker 1: businesses really bore the brunt of the economic disruption caused
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  Speaker 1: by the pandemic. How do they expect to recover here
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  Speaker 1: as we emerge on the other side, Well, you know,
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  Speaker 1: we we survey companies every year and um this year
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  Speaker 1: we surveyed seminar and fifty and it's always important to
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  Speaker 1: remember how small some of these companies really are. There's
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  Speaker 1: thirty and small businesses in the US, and of them
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  Speaker 1: are sold props, so they're working for themselves by themselves
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  Speaker 1: and small business That thirty million is the largest segment
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  Speaker 1: of businesses in the US and of all businesses, so
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  Speaker 1: it tells you just out of the gate. Very many
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  Speaker 1: businesses are just you know, one person working for themselves,
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  Speaker 1: and of them have revenue less than a hundred thousand dollars,
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  Speaker 1: so they're not they're not big. They don't have a
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  Speaker 1: lot of capital, and uh, you know, to get through
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  Speaker 1: a pandemic or whether a storm. We actually look at
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  Speaker 1: business closings and our survey results. They actually did pretty well,
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  Speaker 1: which shows some of the government programs had a good
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  Speaker 1: effect and they you know, tighten their belts and found
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  Speaker 1: other ways to accept payments and change their business lines
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  Speaker 1: and and uh, you know survive, which was huge. Do
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: we need, um the fiscal support to keep coming? You know,
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: it was it was highly effective. If you think about
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: P P P and particular, I think there were ow
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: um you know, eight million or so loans done by
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: the government. We a TD bank, We did um a
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  Speaker 1: hundred and thirty three thousand of them ourselves. We were
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  Speaker 1: top ten bank participating in it. And I found that,
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  Speaker 1: you know, people who took those loans um really needed them.
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  Speaker 1: Um you know, about a third of all companies in
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  Speaker 1: the US took a loan, which is pretty incredible. So uh,
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  Speaker 1: you know, sixty of the people we surveyed said they
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  Speaker 1: were effective, and they also said they could be more
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  Speaker 1: effective by you know, getting more money. Um. The original
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  Speaker 1: loan amount was two and a half times one month
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  Speaker 1: of payroll expenses, so that anticipated the pandemic would probably
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  Speaker 1: last this summer. Last year, we all know when quite
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  Speaker 1: a bit longer. So that's you know, hence the program
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  Speaker 1: that came out this year kind of doubled down and
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  Speaker 1: helped people out this year as well. So I do
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  Speaker 1: think overall they were effective. You know, small business closings
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  Speaker 1: we're seeing in our customer base and also just nationally
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  Speaker 1: UM really haven't gone up. I know you mentioned retail
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  Speaker 1: at the beginning of the segment. That was a hard
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  Speaker 1: hit segment clearly, as well as you know, hospitality, restaurants
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  Speaker 1: and the like. But you know, construction, accounting, UM, a
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  Speaker 1: lot of those other industries that they did well, they thrived,
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  Speaker 1: So Jay, you know, again, as you walk down Main Street, USA, UM,
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  Speaker 1: you see some abandoned storefronts for businesses that went out
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  Speaker 1: of business. But the businesses that survived you see in
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  Speaker 1: their windows. Help want it talk to us about some
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  Speaker 1: of these small businesses. Are they able to hire the
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  Speaker 1: people they need to either reopen or or maybe grow.
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  Speaker 1: You know, that has been a problem. UM. In our survey,
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  Speaker 1: all the businesses business owners are fairly optimistic. Uh, you know,
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  Speaker 1: for six percent said they're either going to grow revenue
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  Speaker 1: or stay the same. The way they're going to grow
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  Speaker 1: is by expanding hours or expanding products and services. Sing
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  Speaker 1: gonna expand hours. Over five percent say they want to
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  Speaker 1: expand products and services. That type of UM. You know,
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  Speaker 1: growth requires hiring that you mentioned, and you know, trying
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  Speaker 1: to find employees now. And I'm hearing from all of
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: our customers that it's a very tight labor market. So
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: I wonder what you think of the possibility of inflation
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  Speaker 1: then being less than transient. Yeah, there's a lot of
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  Speaker 1: money in the system, you know, I mentioned p PP.
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  Speaker 1: We've seen a lot of was nut so right, I
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: mean last week and and so there's more of it
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  Speaker 1: there too. You're right, UM, all kinding capital coming in,
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  Speaker 1: and we're seeing in our deposit accounts of our small
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: business customers and just business customers they're pretty inflated. So
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  Speaker 1: they should be in a good capital position, and a
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  Speaker 1: lot of them have applied for lines of credit or
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: kind of backstop type of facilities. So yes, I think
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: inflation and you see that much money in the system,
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  Speaker 1: and you know, labor rates are gonna have to go
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: up to attract labor. And I know you guys have
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: heard the statistics on things like you know, two by
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  Speaker 1: fours and construction materials all highly inflated right now. All right, Jay,
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  Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. We really appreciate you
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: coming on sharing some of the findings from the TD
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: banks small business survey. Generally an optimistic crew, um, you know,
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  Speaker 1: the small business folks. J Demarto, he's had of commercial
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: distribution for TD Bank. When you think about small business owners,
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: I think, by nature, um, you know, they're pretty optimistic crew,
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: because they're putting a lot of capital risk of putting
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: their welfare at risk. But we're starting to see more
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: and more of these stores reopening and that's good to
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: see across UH Middle America. Here on Main Street, Melding
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: and David Steamer, he is the CEO at Wave. Financial
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: Wave was set up to bridge the divide between the
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: traditional investment management business and crypto assets and they've gotten now,
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: um what, five hundred million dollars in assets under management. David,
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: I'm wondering who you're clients are. What's your client base
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: look like? Yeah, all right, thanks for having me first. Um, yeah,
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: it's a mix. We have a lot of high net worths,
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: probably how about half our clients where we call crypto natives,
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: so they're most our networth of crypto. We do a
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: lot of yield strategies for them, and I mean less
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: kind of crypto native or less cryptognoledgeable. It's more access strategies,
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: you know, get them, you know, bitcoin or other tokens,
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: and then eventually putting yield strategies around us. David talked
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: to us about the volatility we've seen in crypto really
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: over the last month or so. I think that's kind
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: of for a lot of critics. It's given them some
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: ammunition saying, you look at bitcoin and some of the others,
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: the volatility there just takes away some of the legitimacy
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: or calls into question some of the legitimacy as cryptos
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: as an asset class. What are your views, Yeah, I
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: mean what happened in the last month is and this
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: is what's kind of been a cycle we've seen the
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: last eight years. Is you know, a lot of crypto
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: originally was held in China. A lot of it's I've
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: been kind of flowing out of China recently, which is
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: what you know, it's kind of been rushing onto pushing
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: the prices down. And every year, right around this time
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: of year, China makes a bunch of announcements, some of
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: which they follow through on somewhere they don't, which really
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: affect the price. UM. As far as legitimacy of crypto,
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: you know, it's a little bit of different question. Yes,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: the volatility is scary when it's downside volatility. Obviously, when
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: it's upside volatility, it's not that scart um, But it's
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: this kind of nature of the asset. You know, it
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: is part of why Wave focus is pretty heavily on
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: yield strategies, Like we do a lot of derivative strategies
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: for our clients UM to put you know, the futility
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: is not neither good nor bad it by itself. You know,
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: if you can leverage of alatility into certain ways, that's
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: it's pretty powerful. Um. But yeah, it does spook a
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: lot of people. There was a lot of talking ets
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: coming out in the next you know, in the US, uh,
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: you know, approval by the sec and I think this
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: little bout of alatility will probably have a negative impact
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: on that will probably give them justification to continue to
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: push that out. Nonetheless, we're talking about lines of code
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: that over a decade have gone from being worth nothing
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: to being worth forty tho bucks apiece. I mean, the
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: growth is impressive. I'm wondering about your yield strategies. I've
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: been hearing more and more about this. Joe Wisenhal's podcast
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: interviewed a yield farmer the other day. What what is that? Yeah,
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, so these are really unique assets. So a
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: lot of the world still can only think of like
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: bitcoin as kind of a digital stock certificates, and it's
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: it's actually a lot more than that. And it's it's fractionable.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: It's one's fractionable in the hundreds of millions. You can
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: wrap them in certain other assets and take them into
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: like a centralized finance. Again, these are very dynamic assets.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: You know, most of the coins now we're staking coins,
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: which is a you know, kind of different than the
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: mining network. It's a way of registering your tokens to
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: a network. But the fact that they yield nothing. David
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: has been a criticism doesn't yield anything, you know, don't
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: yield anything. People people always say that, just like they've
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: always criticized gold for the same reason. Um, and I
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: get it. But you talk about yeld strategy, So what
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: are what are yield strategies? Yeah, So there's a huge
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: lack of liquidity in crypto, meaning in the sense of
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of need for dollars. So you have
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: cash now it's the odd of any currency, and you're
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: willing to lend it into crypto, which is going to
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: people that are like financy, mining equipment or you know,
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: market usual headphones things like that. There's a really high
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: yield upwards of a year, which obviously is not sustainable
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: long term, but it's a really nice yield UM. So
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: you can lend cash into the markets. You can also
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: lend the actual crypto assets. We do a lot of
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: bitcoin lending for our clients. People want to borrow it
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: to shortage or whatever. You know, you can get you know,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: you can rapid uneath and put in de fi. You
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: can get up words of like six seven percent a year.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: It was just pretty material in this day and age.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: I mean every year you have six or seven percent
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: more bitcoin um so so it's pretty powerful strategies and
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: that's kind of where we Wave was built to take
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: advantage of. Um, Yeah, David, what's the next notable event
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: that you need to see just in broad crypto, maybe
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: just make a little bit more mainstream. What's what's the
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: defining thing that you need to see next? And most
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: of it comes down to regulation, I mean, I think,
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: which we're starting to see. There's been a lot of
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: pronouncements recently, you know, for people that are die hard
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: crypt of people like myself, like you don't really want
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: to see the regulators way in. But for broad adoption,
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: and it's it's very powerful, you know. So eventually we
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: will see SEC approved you know, bitcoin ETF and things
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: like that, which I think will add a lot of adoption,
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: just moves a lot of the barriers, also provide that
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: umbrella of legitimacy to a lot of other users that
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: you know, haven't spent ten years in misassa class and
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: got comfortable with it. So so they'll be I think
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: I think the regulators will lead the way on some
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: of these things. Now, I think it will take time. Right,
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: we actually looked launching a bitcoin ets and have a
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: lot of money on it and then stop spending money
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: on it when it looked like it wasn't gonna happen
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: for years, and we still don't know. I mean, everyone
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: thought at bitcoin e ts in the US is like
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: three to six months away for five years, all right, David,
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. We really appreciate that,
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: really fascinating stuff. David Seemur's the CEO of Wave Financial,
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: really all over that crypto space. It's you know, you
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: feel like it's just very very much in its infancy,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: although it's been around for a while, and Matt, you've
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: certainly been talking about it for a long time, but
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: it just feels like it's in its infancy and there's
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: just a tremendous amount of growth ahead of it. And
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: the question is to what extent will it be regulated? Matt,
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: I'm sure you've owned, you know, forever, the big tech names,
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: the Amazon's, the Google's of facebooks, and you've just been
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: laughing all the way to the bank. But a lot
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: of folks felt like they missed it and will there
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: ever be an opportunity to get some of those hyper
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: growth names again. While our next guest suggests maybe so,
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: Vincent del Ward he's a global macro strategist for stone
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: X and they just put out a report entitled Impossible
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: Growth at an Unreasonable Price The sixty Next Amazons Vinca,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. What's kind of
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: the key takeaway from your most recent report about m
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: sixty next Amazons? Well, thanks for having me, Um. The
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: key takeaway is that you know, we have a lot
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: of excitement about growth and a certain very large GTF
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: bedding on a on a bright future, Um, and it's
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: it's possible. I mean, we saw it with the big
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: text on the Magastons, that we see the x flory
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: growth that surprises everybody. The question is how many of
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: these stocks can we expect to see? And what I
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: did in this report is I projected the growth pass
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: of the magathtock so Microsoft, Apple, Google, Um, Amazon, Yeah,
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: and and discounted it to the present and founded the
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: market is already pricing the scenario and more for sixty stocks.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: So either we were live in a bright future where
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: we'll have trying cars and we live forever and we're
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: longer have to work, or some of these names are
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: obscene me and observed me over value. Yeah. So your
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: point is not that these are sixty stocks that you
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: can make a killing on the way you would have
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: with Amazon twenty years ago, but that it's just terribly unlikely.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: They're just so highly valued that people are gonna lose
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: money on these what are the one are the biggest
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: defenders here vincent um. So yeah, that that that is correct.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: Uh The uh the way the stocks on priced today
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: is that some of these stocks on precedent, even if
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: we're projected the same growth stats as the Magat stocks,
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: they would still lose money because they discount the future
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: and even some more. Uh So most of that is
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: in the healthcare sector specifically, is a biotech um and
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: I can understand to some extent the approach. I mean,
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: this is the nature of biotech investing. Uh is you know,
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: you just throw money at ideas and you know, you
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: know that ninety are are going to you know, not
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: not pan out, and you don't know which one is
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: going to be the one that you know had the
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: one x return. So that's that's just the investing model.
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: The problem is wants to get to such a level
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: of high valuations even finding that can lose is you know,
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: world changing stock returning to the next Amazon would not
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: be enough to save the rest of their portfolios. You know,
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: one of the interesting things um about Amazon to me,
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: at least i'm watching it. You know since the beginning
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: is the markets willingness to give Jeff Bezos and his
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: management team carte blanche to take every potential penny of
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: profit and reinvested in the business. So there were you know,
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: many many many years when the stock was working extraordinarily
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: well that there was no profits and the evaluation calls
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: is crazy. Now with with you know, the cloud and
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: with their advertising business actually have some profits on the
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: bottom line, But how do you explain that? Right? Right?
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: I I think it is so much did you think
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: the Amazon by the way, first of all, I mean
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: the profits weren't there, but the free gastrow generation was
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: pretty good. I mean you could see that. You know, um,
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: the reason you know that the firm was growing very fast,
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: and then that's why you know, everything had to be
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: brought back into the business. But the underlying of the
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: business was was actually pretty good. Also, I was point
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: that you know, this is suel Amazon. This is not
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: true of the other magat stocks. I mean, you know,
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: they were profitable failurely on. Yeah, that's that's that's a
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: big difference between the maga, the old and the one
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: of the maga. And I'm talking about where if you
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: look at the hyper growth stocks, uh, the stuff of
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: the stoff that traded for more than ten times sale
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: in the US, it really hasn't been any earnings uh
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: for in aggregate at least uh for the last five years.
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: If anything, I did a sunny experiment and I saw
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: that they spent more about the same in stock based
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: confrontation as they had earned over the last starve years.
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: So um, again, it could be that they aren't want amazons.
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: I tend to think that Amazon really was an explored miracle.
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: You had the management that was you know, visionary, You
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: have fantastic execution, You had a you know the c P,
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: a company that built the monopoly orger online trade. I mean,
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: these things are not likely to we happen to happen
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: against times in the mixtacade. Monopolies are so great when
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: you want to make money, right. Um. Without getting further
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: into that assessment of Amazon, because it's dangerous obviously for
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: for shareholders, what what what are some of the did
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: you come across any of these moonshot stocks that aren't
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: insanely over value. Do you see anything out there, Vincent
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: that UM looks like it could pay off but isn't
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: trading at ten x earnings ten x. I don't have
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: the you know, expert, especially something like like biotech. Uh.
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: I'm sure they will be. Uh they you know that
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: there will be some of these. I mean, I'm sorely
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: bullish on on the future of healthcare and biotech, and
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: I do think that this is where we are going
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: to see the next Amazon. The thing is, I'm I'm
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: not smart enough to know which one it will be.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: One thing though, that I would I would point is
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: that UM the buying the sector as a whole in
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: the hope or like, well, you know, I don't know
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: what I'm getting some I'm just gonna buy a diversifyeddts
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: and then I'm gonna try to hold as many as
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: possible and then you know how, we'll get it. By default,
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: it's probably not going to work. Um, I rant I'll
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: let you your words. Not buying. Uh. The question mark
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: at the end of that, yes, well, if if we
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: apport to see if it's the stem portray E complreaty
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: Mons two thousand issue at Bob basically all the hypergole
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: stocks in marshrew thousand, thinking okay, one of them is
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: going to turn out. You would have been correct, like
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: you would have bought indeed Amazon and Dad, which you
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: know have been a hundred dollars. But the problem is
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: the stocks that mean a tiny fraction of your board
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: for you at the time, um, Yahoo was four times
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: larger than than Amazon. And what happens and then you
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: all right, Vincent, thank you so much for joining us.
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: Really fascinating report. Vincent Ward at Global macro Strategist at
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: stone X with some really thought provoking work. Thanks for
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: Miller nine seventy three. Get on Ball Sweeney I'm on
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: Twitter at kt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.