Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 338 - 8/18/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 338 - 8/18/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello, and welcome to episode 338 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
• 0:35
  Happy Monday, a new week begins. We're now in the back half of
• 0:38
  the month of August. Man, summer's flying by.
• 0:42
  I do have one thing I'm looking forward to very much.
• 0:45
  We always do this, me and the family, the last week in August,
• 0:48
  we always go to Cape Cod. So we're going to be doing that
• 0:51
  once again. And I'll be heading off on
• 0:53
  Saturday for a week. I'll still be working, you know,
• 0:55
  again, a little work, little play, but I'll be hanging on the
• 0:58
  Cape, eating clam chowder, lobster rolls, hanging with the
• 1:01
  family. So very much looking forward to
• 1:03
  that. But you know, when the the you
• 1:05
  know, the annual family trip at the end of summer on the Cape,
• 1:08
  you know that means summer is ending.
• 1:10
  And again, maybe you're a little bittersweet about that, but it
• 1:13
  does get you excited because we got NFL pre season.
• 1:16
  Obviously we're Week 2 going into week 3.
• 1:18
  Now. We did see a bit of an
• 1:19
  adjustment with those overs that were insane, 16 and two to the
• 1:23
  over and week 1. I think they regressed a little
• 1:26
  bit. I believe they're, I think 8:00
• 1:27
  and 7:00 this past week. So a little bit of regression
• 1:31
  there to the mean. But then we got obviously NFL
• 1:34
  week 1 coming up first week in September.
• 1:36
  And then if we get college football guys, we got games
• 1:39
  coming up here on Saturday. So you should have a few plays
• 1:42
  here. I'm already looking at one game
• 1:44
  in particular, Iowa State and K State.
• 1:47
  We actually opened Kansas State around a 3 1/2 point favorite.
• 1:50
  It's down to three at some shops.
• 1:51
  So I'm thinking do we take the hook there?
• 1:54
  And then also with Stanford and Hawaii, it's not your late night
• 1:57
  Hawaii game. It's a 730 game.
• 2:00
  We did see dog to fave move toward Hawaii, getting 2 1/2 now
• 2:04
  -2 So if you've been waiting, you know, you know, scratching
• 2:07
  and clawing ready for some college football.
• 2:09
  The wait is almost over as obviously we have some college
• 2:12
  football week 0. Isn't it funny?
• 2:14
  We got Week 0, but looking very much forward to that.
• 2:17
  For today's pod though, we're going to get right back to Major
• 2:20
  League Baseball. I have a three pack of sweats
• 2:22
  for you, all relatively short numbers, so see if we can go 2
• 2:25
  and one each got a winning day. I also have an NFL player prop
• 2:28
  for you. I'm trying to finalize my card.
• 2:31
  I've already been a few win totals.
• 2:32
  I got the Patriots over 7 1/2 wins, I believe it was -150 I
• 2:37
  also had the under 5 1/2 at a little bit of plus money with
• 2:41
  the Saints. So people have been asking me,
• 2:44
  hey, you know what, what's your card for futures and all that?
• 2:46
  Well, I should have maybe one or two more win totals and I am
• 2:49
  going to have a few player props, maybe some division bets.
• 2:51
  But I do have a quarterback that I like to go over his passing
• 2:55
  touchdowns. I'm going to end the pod here
• 2:57
  today with this prop bet that I just placed.
• 3:00
  Yeah, it is also a play where you're kind of comparing and
• 3:03
  contrasting different books and finding a discrepancy where one
• 3:06
  book, even what's a tiny bit juicier, is offering a much
• 3:09
  better number. SO3 MLB plays today, one player
• 3:13
  prop in the NFL, quarterback futures play.
• 3:16
  And again, we'll see if we can start a week off on a hot note.
• 3:19
  Now, I know it's been a while. I haven't seen you guys or
• 3:21
  talked to you guys since Friday, but do you remember Friday night
• 3:24
  5 and O + 3.91 units. We swept the board with the
• 3:28
  Rays, the Yankees and the Phillies and then some good test
• 3:31
  cases in preseason football. Cuz remember the Falcons plus 5
• 3:35
  1/2 they open getting I believe 3 1/2.
• 3:38
  They got all the up to 5 1/2. I played the 5 1/2 but I
• 3:41
  mentioned on the pod if you could still get the hook on the
• 3:43
  3 1/2 maybe some value there. Will they close 2 1/2 and then
• 3:47
  up losing by three? So if you got 3 1/2 for better
• 3:50
  you cash for the Falcons and then Seahawks.
• 3:52
  One of our favorite moves of all time, the dog to fave line movie
• 3:55
  open as a dog you flip to a favorite Seahawks money line
• 3:58
  came through so big fat 5 and O Friday night what you love to
• 4:02
  see. But anyway guys, let's waste no
• 4:04
  further time. Get right back into what we do
• 4:06
  when we do what we love to do. Making sharp, data-driven plays
• 4:09
  with our head and not our heart based on monitoring and studying
• 4:13
  the betting market. So first play for me.
• 4:15
  Let's go out to Pittsburgh, 6:40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch
• 4:19
  where the Pirates are hosting the Toronto Blue Jays now
• 4:22
  setting the stage for this one. The Jays come in 73 and 52.
• 4:26
  Just took two or three against the Rangers.
• 4:28
  Couldn't get the sweep, though. They lost that serious finale
• 4:31
  yesterday. 3:50 as a -, 120 home favorite.
• 4:34
  You know, the Pirates 52 and 73 on the year, pretty much the
• 4:38
  opposite record. They just dropped two or three
• 4:40
  against the cubbies. They lost four to three
• 4:42
  yesterday as a + 160 Rd. dog. So for tonight's interleague
• 4:46
  series opener, the Jays are going with the ready Kevin
• 4:48
  Gozman. He's 8:00 and 9:00 with a 3.79
• 4:52
  ERA. Meanwhile, the Buckos are going
• 4:53
  with the ready Paul Skeens 7 and 92.13 ERA.
• 4:57
  So just sitting across the market here.
• 5:00
  Well, the skeens on the bump, you know, typically you're going
• 5:02
  to be favored. It's rare skeens as a dog, but
• 5:04
  we did open Pittsburgh around a -, 120 home favorite, Toronto,
• 5:09
  basically around a + 100 row dog.
• 5:11
  And it's interesting to me that anytime you see skeens at a low
• 5:15
  price, you know, how does the betting market react?
• 5:17
  Does the betting market say, man, take advantage of skeens at
• 5:20
  a short price? Or is the other thought here,
• 5:23
  hey, it's low for a reason, maybe you should bet against
• 5:25
  skeens. Well, looks like the latter is
• 5:27
  taking place here because Pittsburgh open -120 now they're
• 5:31
  down to -110 On the other side, we got Toronto plus 100 down to
• 5:36
  -110 So basically we've become a pick em game basically -110 both
• 5:40
  sides with the line moving toward Toronto.
• 5:44
  Now if you look at the splits here on the Jays, they look
• 5:45
  pretty good at DraftKings. The Jays are getting 65% of
• 5:49
  money line bets, 68% of money line dollars at circa 88% of
• 5:54
  money line bets, 94% of money line dollars.
• 5:58
  Excuse me. So both books are showing a nice
• 6:00
  low bets higher dollar split in favor of Toronto.
• 6:04
  Now if Toronto is slightly a dog at some shops they would match
• 6:06
  one system that's been really good short dog plus 120 or less
• 6:11
  with a line move in their favor that since August 1st is 34 and
• 6:16
  2360%. But because of the short price
• 6:19
  or even some plus money there, you are a 21% ROI.
• 6:24
  Now, I jumped on Toronto at -1 O 4 at FanDuel.
• 6:27
  So technically that is a dog. But most of the market is -110
• 6:30
  both sides. So definitely shop around, try
• 6:32
  to get that best number. I'm going to bank on Toronto's
• 6:35
  offense hopefully showing up and getting to skeins more on him in
• 6:38
  a second. He's come back down to earth a
• 6:39
  little bit in the month of August.
• 6:41
  But Toronto has an edge at the plate.
• 6:43
  They've hit 269 as a team, 148 home runs, 615 runs scored.
• 6:49
  Pittsburgh has hit 232 as a team, only 88 homers, 439 runs
• 6:54
  scored. Now, the Jays are also number
• 6:56
  one in baseball batting average against righty's, hitting 268.
• 7:00
  They're also hitting 268 on the road, second best in baseball.
• 7:03
  You know, Pirates hitting 237 against righty's, that ranks
• 7:06
  26th in baseball and only hitting 249 at home, that ranks
• 7:10
  17th. So Jays have been really good
• 7:12
  against righty's and on the road.
• 7:14
  Obviously Pirates have struggled against righties in at home.
• 7:18
  Now, I mentioned Skeens a second ago, but in the month of August
• 7:20
  he's made three starts. 4.8 Oera, you don't expect that with
• 7:24
  Skeens. He's going up eight runs in 15
• 7:27
  innings pitched. Meanwhile, Kevin Gozman, maybe
• 7:29
  part of the line move toward Toronto is, you know Gozman's
• 7:32
  pitch very well. He's giving up two earned runs
• 7:34
  or less and seven of his last nine starts.
• 7:37
  Then you look at last 10, Toronto six and four, they're
• 7:40
  hitting 287 as a team, 430 team ERA.
• 7:43
  The other hand, you got Pittsburgh three and seven over
• 7:45
  the last 10 hitting 224 with a 5.87 team ERA.
• 7:50
  So we open schemes, schemes as a favorite, but the sign has
• 7:53
  fallen and basically come down to a pick em.
• 7:55
  I'm going to follow that sharp line move.
• 7:57
  I'm going to back Gozman. I'm going to hope Toronto's bats
• 8:00
  can get a few runs across against Skeens and let's fingers
• 8:03
  crossed that Gozman can pitch another gem for us.
• 8:05
  So first play on the board for me guys.
• 8:07
  I got Toronto minus one O 4 at FanDuel.
• 8:10
  Again, shop around. A lot of books are mostly now
• 8:12
  -110 next one for you. 6:40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, Saint
• 8:18
  Louis Cardinals visiting the Miami Marlins.
• 8:21
  Now coming into this, we got the Cardinals 61 and 64 just got
• 8:25
  swept by the Yankees. They lost that series finale
• 8:28
  yesterday. 8 to 4 is a + 130 home dog.
• 8:31
  You know the Marlins 59 and 65. They just dropped two or three
• 8:34
  against the Red Sox. Avoided the sweep with A53 win
• 8:37
  yesterday. Came through as a + 215 Rd. dog.
• 8:41
  Don't don't get me started on that game because Sox are up 3
• 8:43
  to 2. They couldn't pitch Chapman
• 8:45
  because he had pitched the two previous nights and they blew
• 8:48
  the lead and lost. And I'm a Red Sox fan, but more
• 8:51
  importantly, I have Red Sox win total over 85 and a halfs.
• 8:54
  That was annoying. Anyway, pitching matchup for
• 8:57
  tonight. Cards are going with the lefty
• 8:58
  Matthew Liberator. He's 6 and 10, four point O 8
• 9:02
  ERA. You know the fish are going to
• 9:03
  go with the righty Yuri Perez. He's five and three with a 3.58
• 9:07
  ERA. What do we see across the market
• 9:09
  here? Well, Miami opened around a -,
• 9:12
  130 -, 135 home favorite Saint Louis, around a + 115 Rd. dog.
• 9:17
  And not the hugest or biggest steam move, you know, in the
• 9:20
  world here. But we have seen this line creep
• 9:22
  up further toward Miami. They've gone from -130 -, 135 up
• 9:27
  to around -140 now. Some shops even as high as -145
• 9:31
  I jumped on Miami -142 I believe that's still available now Bet
• 9:36
  MGM. So shop around, try to find that
• 9:39
  lowest price if you want to play the fish with me.
• 9:42
  But aside from this line move toward Miami, they were pretty
• 9:44
  good bet split at Circa out in Vegas that caters to wise guys.
• 9:48
  78% of money line bets, 95% of money line dollars.
• 9:53
  Then you get to some system matches lit up on Miami.
• 9:55
  I got 3. Three good ones here Monday.
• 9:57
  Home teams of the line move in their favor. 66 and 39. 63% on
• 10:03
  the year, 9% ROI. Both teams below 500 take the
• 10:07
  home favorite off a win. This would also match with
• 10:09
  Miami. 67 and 3764 percent, 5% ROI.
• 10:15
  Non division home favorites -150 or less off a win getting line
• 10:19
  movement in their favor. Those teams are 88 and 49 this
• 10:22
  year 64% but a 14% ROI because of the short ish short ish
• 10:27
  price. Again you got to be -150 or
• 10:29
  less. Couple other angles of Miami
• 10:31
  correlative betting favorite low total few amount of expected run
• 10:35
  score more likely to come from quote UN quote the better team
• 10:38
  and we have Miami as a additional betting system play
• 10:41
  non division favorite just classic.
• 10:43
  Lack of familiarity typically benefits the better team.
• 10:46
  And I do want to back Perez on the road.
• 10:48
  He hasn't been great 4.42 ERA but at home 2 point O 8 ERA.
• 10:53
  So hopefully the Saint Louis Cardinals team just got swept by
• 10:55
  the Yankees again, got a lot of injuries falling out of the
• 10:58
  race. The Marlins are kind of pesky.
• 11:01
  Let's see if they can get it done and get a win for us
• 11:03
  tonight. I am on Miami -142 at Bet MGM.
• 11:07
  But again, shop around some books or a lot of books now -145
• 11:12
  late night sweat. If you're on the East Coast like
• 11:14
  me. Let's go out to Los Angeles or I
• 11:16
  guess Anaheim technically, where the Halos are hosting the
• 11:20
  Cincinnati Reds, 9:38 PM Eastern Time, first pitch.
• 11:24
  So let's set the stage for this one.
• 11:26
  The Reds come in 65 and 60. Just lost two or three against
• 11:30
  the Brewers, but they avoided the sweep and finally ended that
• 11:32
  insane. You got to tip your cap.
• 11:35
  The Brewers 14 wins in a row. Reds took them down 3 to 2
• 11:38
  yesterday and extras came through as a -, 125 home
• 11:41
  favorite. You know all the Angels 60 and
• 11:44
  64. Just dropped two or three
• 11:46
  against the Athletics. Also avoided the sweep with an
• 11:48
  extra innings win yesterday. 11 to 5.
• 11:51
  Came through as a -, 110 Rd. pick em.
• 11:54
  So pitching match up here for tonight.
• 11:56
  Reds are going to go with the righty Brady Singer.
• 11:58
  He's 10 and nine. 4.31 ERA. Angels, meanwhile, going with
• 12:02
  fellow ready Victor Medeiros, O&O 5.63 ERA.
• 12:07
  What do we see across the market here?
• 12:09
  Well, not a huge move, but we open up basically a pick em -110
• 12:12
  both sides. And yet we've seen this line
• 12:14
  move a little bit up toward the red legs.
• 12:17
  The legs have gone from -110 up to -115.
• 12:21
  I got a -, 115 at Caesar's. A lot of books, though, are -116
• 12:25
  -, 118 -, 120. So Caesar's looks to be the best
• 12:28
  price right now, but about a 5 cent move in favor of the Reds.
• 12:32
  If you look at the splits of DraftKings, 70% of bets, 85% of
• 12:37
  dollars on Cincinnati. So good low bets, higher dollar
• 12:40
  split. Here's a system.
• 12:41
  I know it's a small sample, but since August 1st, short
• 12:45
  favorites -120 or less with a line move in their favor.
• 12:48
  They're 11 and 761%. But because of those short
• 12:52
  prices, 15% ROI, that would match with the red Red legs
• 12:56
  tonight. The Reds do have the better
• 12:57
  bats. They're hitting 247 on the year,
• 13:01
  570 runs scored. Angels hitting two, 33551 runs
• 13:06
  scored. Also two righties on the bump.
• 13:08
  Since he is hitting 254 against righties, that's the 6th best
• 13:13
  batting average in baseball. Angels are hitting 234 against
• 13:16
  righties. That ranks 28th.
• 13:17
  A little bit more on these pitchers.
• 13:20
  Brady Singer, I remember he was, I think a straight up trade for
• 13:23
  Jonathan India when the Royals made that move.
• 13:26
  But he is, he's pitched really well in the month of August.
• 13:29
  He's made three starts, 2.3 O ERA, only giving up four earned
• 13:33
  runs and 15.2 And he's pitched, he's allowed one earned run or
• 13:36
  less in three of his last four starts.
• 13:39
  So singers throwing the ball well.
• 13:41
  Meanwhile, again, raise your hand if you've never heard of
• 13:43
  Victor Medeiros. I hadn't until today, but Victor
• 13:47
  Medeiros is making his second career start, 11th career MLB
• 13:52
  appearance. So you got a veteran pitching
• 13:54
  well singer and a new kid going up against a Reds team that hits
• 13:57
  righties very well since he also has a better bullpen team area
• 14:02
  of 3.96. Angels have the fifth worst
• 14:05
  bullpen 4.84. So you add it all up guys.
• 14:08
  This isn't a 10/20/30 cent steam move, but suddenly the line has
• 14:11
  moved towards Cincy. Got good bet splits.
• 14:14
  Hopefully the better pitcher on the bump and let's see if we can
• 14:17
  fade Mederos and have the red legs bats get to this this young
• 14:21
  kid. But add it all up guys, I'm
• 14:23
  going cincy -115 at Caesar's again, shop around some books as
• 14:28
  high as -120 so Jays, Miami Reds, let's try to get 2 out of
• 14:34
  three of these. Now I know you're on pins and
• 14:37
  needles for this NFL prop bet, but I, I landed on this prop bet
• 14:41
  that really jumped out to me. So let me just say right off the
• 14:44
  bat, I'm not a huge season long prop person for kind of a
• 14:49
  variety of reasons. I think you can fall in love
• 14:51
  with a lot of different guys, a lot of different numbers.
• 14:54
  Obviously football is, you know, 100% injury sport.
• 14:58
  So you know, often times if you're taking, you know, running
• 15:01
  back to go over, he could easily tear his ACL or get hurt.
• 15:05
  So I think, and again, I'm not going to say it's safe because
• 15:07
  you're never safe. Sports betting is always hard.
• 15:09
  It's hard to win, but one thing I do look at is quarterbacks and
• 15:14
  they're passing touchdowns. So the angle here to me is that
• 15:18
  of all the players on the field, you know, quarterbacks are
• 15:20
  protected the most. A lot of Q BS tend to play the
• 15:24
  entire season. And if you can kind of take
• 15:27
  advantage of maybe a player that's on the rise with a lot of
• 15:30
  continuity in terms of, you know, same coaching staff,
• 15:34
  returning offensive lineman, same weapons, maybe you add a
• 15:37
  weapon or two. That always appeals to me.
• 15:40
  But then also I like to play different sports books off each
• 15:44
  other. So you got to remember if you
• 15:45
  are playing, you know, Patrick Mahomes over passing yards or I
• 15:50
  don't know, you know, Jalen Hurts over touchdowns, you got
• 15:53
  to remember that not every book is going to have the exact same
• 15:56
  number. So maybe you identify a play
• 15:58
  that you like. You know, I didn't have access
• 16:01
  to the one I'm about to tell you in terms of the splits, like
• 16:03
  bets and dollars, some prop bets.
• 16:06
  You know, I get some of that information from my friend John
• 16:09
  Ewing at Bet MGM. So it's not like a low bets,
• 16:11
  higher dollars line move play, but this is a player that I'm
• 16:14
  high on that we can take advantage of one book offering a
• 16:18
  much better price than the entire market.
• 16:20
  So that player is Bo Nicks quarterback, remember wasn't he?
• 16:26
  South Carolina, then Oregon obviously, and now going into a
• 16:30
  second year with the Denver Broncos, led the Broncos to the
• 16:33
  playoffs last year, had a fantastic year.
• 16:36
  His over under passing touchdowns.
• 16:39
  Now if you look at pretty much every book across the market,
• 16:42
  DraftKings, FanDuel, Bet, MGM, Caesar's, all the major ones,
• 16:48
  his over under passing touchdowns is 24 1/2.
• 16:51
  So if you play the over, he needs 25 passing touchdowns.
• 16:55
  Now that is juiced up over at a quite a few shops -115 -, 120 If
• 17:00
  you look last year he had 29 passing touchdowns.
• 17:04
  Now looking at maybe an improvement from Bonex.
• 17:07
  One, I like the fact that he's an older rookie.
• 17:10
  I know the knock on him, you know, getting drafted was he, I
• 17:12
  think he has a rookie. He was like 24, but older
• 17:16
  rookie, but also very experienced.
• 17:18
  Played a ton of games in college.
• 17:20
  I think he started like 60 games, something like that.
• 17:23
  But a mature kid, experienced quarterback.
• 17:26
  What I really like is he's going into year 2 and also he's in
• 17:29
  year 2 with Sean Payton. So Sean Payton is one of the
• 17:32
  best offensive minds play colors in football.
• 17:35
  Obviously had a great year at Bonex as a rookie.
• 17:38
  Now your year 2 experience with me with Sean Payton year 2IN
• 17:42
  general, you're no longer a rookie.
• 17:44
  You kind of know what to expect. He's pretty much bringing back
• 17:47
  his entire receiving core from last year.
• 17:49
  So Courtland Sutton had a big year.
• 17:51
  Mims was the deep threat that cashed a a bunch of big bombs.
• 17:56
  And then also I I called this kid Valet, but it's, I think
• 17:59
  it's valet. He's returning.
• 18:01
  And then also the the Broncos added Evan Ingram, pretty good
• 18:07
  tight end. If he can stay healthy, he's a
• 18:08
  pretty good red zone target. So all this I'm saying for the
• 18:13
  important reason of I'm high on Bonex going into this year.
• 18:17
  However, here's the thing, if you made me take over 24 1/2,
• 18:20
  yeah, I still kind of like that. But here's why you got to do
• 18:23
  your due. Do your due diligence.
• 18:26
  Say that 1010 times fast. I was looking at every book and
• 18:30
  I landed on ESPN Bet and I double checked it right before
• 18:34
  the pod started to make sure the number still available.
• 18:37
  ESPN Bet is not 24 1/2. ESPN bet is 22 1/2 and it's 22
• 18:44
  1/2. Now here's the thing.
• 18:45
  It is juiced up a little bit. It's over 22 1/2 at -145 S
• 18:51
  again. You could play him 24 1/2 and
• 18:54
  save some juice -115 -, 120. Or you could spend, you know,
• 18:59
  2025, thirty cents more and save yourself by only having to get
• 19:05
  23 or more passing touchdowns. Like let's say Bo Nicks finishes
• 19:10
  the year with 23 or 24 passing touchdowns.
• 19:14
  That means that if you play the over 24 1/2 at FanDuel
• 19:17
  DraftKings, all the major books, you lose.
• 19:20
  If you pay a little more juice, he lands 23 or 24, you cash at
• 19:25
  ESPN, bet over 22 1/2. So that's my play.
• 19:29
  I know it's a little juicy, but you know, I can't tell you how
• 19:33
  many plays, especially with prop bets where, you know, I could
• 19:36
  have paid a little more juice to get an extra yard or I'll never
• 19:39
  forget Bryce Young. I think I had him over 199 1/2
• 19:42
  passing yards last year and I think he landed 199.
• 19:46
  And I could have paid a little more juice and gotten like over
• 19:48
  196 1/2 and I didn't. And from that point forward, I'm
• 19:51
  unless the juice is -200 OK, that's too much.
• 19:54
  But as long as it's not that crazy, I'm willing to pay a
• 19:58
  little more juice to get a better number to protect myself.
• 20:01
  Because name of the game is cashing tickets, so you're
• 20:04
  welcome to ride with me if you'd like, but Bonex, over 22 1/2
• 20:08
  passing touchdowns at ESPN bet at the price of -145 that is a
• 20:14
  play that I put in over the weekend.
• 20:18
  So that about does it for episode 338 of the ASG Pod on a
• 20:21
  Monday. As always, this is the part of
• 20:23
  the pod where we wrap things up. We start first by saying thank
• 20:27
  you. Thank you for taking the time
• 20:28
  out of your day, out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to
• 20:31
  the virtual bar and sweat some sharp, data-driven plays with
• 20:34
  me. If you do enjoy the pod, you
• 20:36
  value the insights, you enjoy the breakdowns, please could you
• 20:39
  give this podcast a five star review on Spotify or iTunes?
• 20:43
  If you want to leave a nice review comment, hit the follow
• 20:46
  button. Recommend the pod to a friend.
• 20:48
  That would also be amazing. Next, if you enjoy the style of
• 20:52
  betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrarian betting folks
• 20:55
  saying what the market is telling us, not what our biases
• 20:57
  are telling us. If this style of betting has
• 20:59
  appealed to you, you want to learn more about data-driven
• 21:02
  betting, but more importantly, you want to get ready for the
• 21:04
  NFL season. It's going to be here before you
• 21:06
  know it. It's pretty much here now.
• 21:08
  I would love for you guys to go to Amazon.com and type in the
• 21:11
  NFL sharp betting playbook. That's my baby.
• 21:15
  My baby is now a week old and we're still #1 new release on
• 21:21
  Amazon. So I want to thank everyone who
• 21:22
  has bought the NFL Sharp betting playbook.
• 21:25
  If you do want to pick up a copy, it would mean a lot to me.
• 21:28
  And if you would like to give it a five star review and a little
• 21:30
  little comment on on Amazon, that would really help us to to
• 21:33
  stay up there at the top of the ranks.
• 21:36
  I also have another book, the NFL sharp, the everything guide
• 21:39
  to sports betting. I get I got to get my books
• 21:41
  right. I name them right.
• 21:43
  That's the first book ever wrote.
• 21:45
  It's great for just anyone who's really getting brand new into
• 21:47
  sports betting, kind of lays out the whole data-driven model.
• 21:50
  But if you would like to buy the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook or
• 21:53
  the Everything Guide to Sports betting, bring them to the
• 21:56
  sports book. I'll sign them for you.
• 21:57
  I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat some games
• 22:00
  together. That sounds pretty good to me.
• 22:03
  Next, have you downloaded Rhythm or Juice Reel yet?
• 22:05
  Well, if you haven't, now's the time because it's about to get
• 22:08
  crazy up in here with football returning and then basketball
• 22:12
  and before you know it, hockey. But Rhythm fantastic for their
• 22:15
  AI backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
• 22:18
  Obviously you got MLB and WNBA right now, but we do have
• 22:22
  college football systems already lighting up for week 0.
• 22:25
  And I do have an announcement coming in a couple days with
• 22:28
  Rhythm. We're putting the final touches
• 22:30
  on our schedule for this fall. I'm excited to work with Rhythm
• 22:34
  once again this year and then also go download Juice Reel if
• 22:38
  you enjoy the pod, it's free. It cost you nothing to listen to
• 22:41
  this pod. If you would like to support the
• 22:43
  podcast. I would love it if you wanted to
• 22:45
  sign up to get the all Systems Go official best bet picks from
• 22:48
  the Juice Reel app. It costs $4.99 a week, so
• 22:53
  basically less than a dollar a day to get the plays and you can
• 22:57
  tailfade do whatever you like but they are available to you on
• 23:00
  the Juice Reel app but you can again sign up and get them.
• 23:03
  You also get the Robo Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush
• 23:05
  indicators, the arbitrage plays, the shop for the best line
• 23:08
  futures. All available when you download
• 23:10
  Juice Reel. So download rhythm, download
• 23:13
  Juice Reel and you'll be off and running making sharp bets.
• 23:17
  Next you have a live odds page. If you don't, you need one.
• 23:20
  It's so critical that if you want to be a day driven better,
• 23:23
  you need access to real, accurate, reliable data.
• 23:26
  And a lot of that comes in the form of a live odds page.
• 23:29
  Bet splits are also really important to me.
• 23:31
  But a live odds page there's a lot of them out there, but the
• 23:34
  best one around is odds logic. So give it a shot with a 7 day
• 23:37
  free trial, 50% off your first month.
• 23:40
  They got all the major sports books.
• 23:41
  They got the sharp books like pinnacle, all the games live
• 23:45
  scoring, live in game wagering. You can identify steam.
• 23:47
  The odds get lit up in red if anything is moving.
• 23:50
  So he'd be first to know about big, big money hitting the
• 23:53
  market. And then you also get full line
• 23:56
  history and and of course, shopping for the best price.
• 23:58
  So give it a shot, 7 day free trial, 50% off your first month
• 24:01
  by going to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
• 24:08
  So that about does it for episode 338 of the ASG Pod on a
• 24:11
  big Monday. As always guys, I'll leave you
• 24:13
  with two final thoughts. Whether I see you at the Borgata
• 24:16
  in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
• 24:19
  Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut at the
• 24:22
  Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park, Casino, MGM Springfield,
• 24:25
  the Nash and my neck of the woods.
• 24:28
  Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
• 24:31
  down, where Billy Walter sends his number runners.
• 24:33
  Where the lowest true as possible is found at the South
• 24:35
  Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
• 24:37
  plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
• 24:39
  When you catch a big ticket at Circa, you're going to show me a
• 24:42
  nice little little 5 and a sweep from Friday's pod raise.
• 24:45
  Yankees, Phillies, I hope you got the Falcons 3 1/2 or better.
• 24:49
  Seahawks money line. Guess what?
• 24:50
  First one's on me, next one's on you.
• 24:52
  We'll post about the book and sweat sharp contrarian plays all
• 24:55
  night long. So wish you the best luck.
• 24:57
  Everyone have a fantastic Monday night.
• 25:00
  I'll see if we can get a get a couple winners here.
• 25:02
  Let's try to go get 2 out of three and Major League Baseball.
• 25:06
  But as always, remember, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet
• 25:10
  against the public, place yourself on the side of the
• 25:11
  house. Always be with the smart money,
• 25:13
  never against it. Will smart money win every time?
• 25:16
  No, unfortunately it won't because betting is hard.
• 25:18
  It's unpredictable, but if we can consistently place ourselves
• 25:21
  in that sweet spot against the house with the pros, with
• 25:25
  against the public, get that COV and again flat that be
• 25:29
  disciplined with our bankroll, then we're going to come out on
• 25:31
  top long term. So have a great Monday,
• 25:33
  everybody. Be right back at it tomorrow for
• 25:36
  episode 339 of the All systems Go sports betting podcast
• 25:39
  powered by rhythm. Good luck everybody and enjoy
• 25:43
  the Monday sweats.