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Monday MLB + WNBA Bets 7/7/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: never seen anything like this.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: good day at all.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: Own four that have not had a good season.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Man with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: slump continues.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: I've reached into pink.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Actually, I'm going to burn my browins hack Man, I
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Arch hate?
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: Is that what it is?
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: I don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: who even knows?
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Man, I don't know what day is anymore. But I
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: don't even know what data is anymore. Man, back with
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: you after the worst day that I could possibly have,
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Back with you as I always am.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Until I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: yesterday did not go well for me.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: The slumpyrase, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you Monday, right,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: July seventh. It's all a blurer, man, I never know
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: what day it is anymore. Thanks everybody for hanging out,
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: Thanks for coming back to the show. Dealing with my
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: my suicidal tendencies here, I don't know, man. Yesterday was
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: one and one on the show. The Atlanta Braves. I
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: gave out the early game there. They did not get
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: it done. They couldn't score at all. They lost two
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: to one, I believe is what it was. Just absolutely brutal.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: I think they had runners. They left a lot of
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: runners on base man, at least late in the game
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: when I had an eye on it, and I was like,
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: this is just bad, brutal. The other game was a winner,
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Tampa Minnesota under in the first five innings one, even
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: though the game wound up going over on the full game.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: That's why I worried about the bullpens man and Rasmussen
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: actually exited the game after two winnings or something like that,
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: so I think he got hurt. So we were really
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: we were on thin ice on that one. It was
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: a two to one game and like the third inning,
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: I'm like, oh god, but it.
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: Remained two to one.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: So the under did hit in the first five innings
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: and it was even better because the full game went over,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: but the first five went under, so that one was
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: a winner. I'm gonna give out two full game unders
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: today on the shorter baseball slate here. I am a
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: little bit concerned about the bullpens involved in those games,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: but full game under well, well, I'll talk about when
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: I get to them. But I think in both cases,
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching is strong enough that they can get
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: us deep enough into the games that we hopefully don't
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: have to deal with boltpens for that long. And I
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: think the number is actually better on the full game.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: Let's get into it, man. I actually I do have
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Wimbledon behind me right now. I don't know, I don't
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: know if this is live or not, but this is
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: it's interesting because Djokovic is playing right now and he
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: just evened.
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: His match against Deem Menaar.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: I don't know who that guy is, but I guess
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: he's Australian. So it's very interesting that Djokovic is playing
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: against the guy from the country that banned him and
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: basically prevented him from winning multiple extra Grand Slam tournaments,
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: probably with the whole vaccine thing.
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: It's why I like Djokovic.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Man. He was like, nope, I'm not getting it, fuck you,
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: and multiple countries banned him. I think the US included,
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: so he couldn't play in a bunch of Grand Slam tournaments.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Now unfortunately that was like partially during his peak and
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: now he's kind of passed this peak. So I get
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: pissed off, man, because Djokovic. I like how he did that,
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: and he should have more Grand Slam victories than he
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: actually does. So I don't really follow tennis, but like
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: he's my guy because he did that all right anyway,
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: And yeah, it's just interesting he's facing an Australian here.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: Let's get to today, man. We'll talk about WNBA briefly.
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: First. There are two.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: WNBA games today, Golden State at Atlanta. Atlanta is up
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: from six and a half to seven and a half
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: They're seven and a half point favorite here at home.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: Golden State has surprised a lot of people, as I
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: believe they're an expansion team, but they actually have a
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: winning record. They've been playing pretty competitively. They just lost
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: to Minnesota, which is expecting. I mean, Minnesota is really good.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: Second straight road game. Maybe not the easy spot off
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: for Golden State here, which you might explain why some
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: of the money's coming on Atlanta.
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's been at home for a while and.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: They're just remaining at home, so maybe a little bit
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: of a better spot for them, but they are coming
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: off kind of a big game against Seattle as well,
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: so not recommending a play on this. And then Dallas
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: Phoenix has some more interesting stuff going on where Phoenix
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: is only a five and a half point favorite, down
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: from nine and a half. And this is interesting, man,
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: because Phoenix. This is a revenge spot for Phoenix. Okay,
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: they just lost at Dallas in their previous game in
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: Phoenix was an eleven and a half point favorite in
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: that game against Dallas. So now Phoenix is at home,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: How the hell are they five and a half point
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: favorite now?
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, So it looks like there's line value on Phoenix,
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: and yeah there is, but obviously we have injury issues
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: for Phoenix and that's why the line has dropped so much.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Phoenix is without two of their starters here, a Copper
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: and Sabali. I don't know how you pronounce their name,
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: but they're both pretty key injuries for Phoenix.
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: They're both starters, so they're both out in this game.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: Though Dallas doesn't have a couple injuries as well, but
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: the Phoenix injuries are pretty crucial. So that is basically
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: the reason why the line is way lower. But the
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: line actually opened lower than what they were favored by
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: on the road, so I still think there is value
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: on Phoenix. It's a revenge spot again, Dallas still isn't
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: really that good. Phoenix probably a little bit pissed that
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: they lost to Dallas last time, So I'd still be
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: leaning towards laying the points with Phoenix in this one
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: with the shorter price there. It's just they're in kind
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: of a cluster injury situation now rather than an injured
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: player theory, where in the injured player theory spot you
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: have like one star player out the team you know
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: gets up for and they played better a lot of
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: times without that player in there because they know they
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: have to play harder, you get like line value on it,
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: which I think is still the case here. It's just
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: a little bit more dice and when you have two
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: key players out instead of one. But yes, I do
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: think there is value on the Phoenix side in that game,
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: but I'm not gonna recommend.
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: It as a play Major League Baseball. Let's go.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: A little bit of a shorter slate here. Now, Baseball
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: on Monday. The first thing that I always do is
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: I say, well, who played in the ESPN night game,
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: although actually last.
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: Night there were two. Saint Louis Chicago was kind of
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: the the ESPN night game.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: Yes, say the primetime game I believe, although it might
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: have been a little bit earlier. But neither of those
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: teams are playing today, the Cubs and Cardinals, so we
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: can kind of forget about that for today.
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: Texas and San Diego played later, and.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: Then for some reason and that was ESPN as well,
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: And then for some reason San Francisco and A's also
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: had a late game, a very rare non ESPN late
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: night Sunday game. So all of that is somebody to
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: be taken into account. We will talk about those teams
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: when we get to it. Although Texas and San Diego
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: are both playing night games again tonight, so I don't
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: think it's really gonna have that much of an effect
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: on those teams because basically they're just facing other teams
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: that played fairly late yesterday as well. So or actually,
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: I guess Anheim did play a little bit earlier.
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: But well, we'll.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Get to it when we get to it. First game
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: up today, we have only evening games today. Tampa is
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: at Detroit. In the first game up, Detroit is returning
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: on from a road trip and they just swept Cleveland.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: They beat Washington Cleveland on the road trip, had to
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: go into extra innings yesterday to beat Cleveland. School Will
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: pitched really well, but Detroit basically didn't score and they're
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: actually losing late in the game. I think they were
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: done one to nothing in the eighth inning, tied it,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: and then they scored six runs in the in the
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: tenth inning. Ghost Runner still sucks, but man Detroit unloaded
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: on Cleveland and the extra innings there, Detroit didn't have
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: to use that much of their bullpen because school Ball
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: got them deep into the game.
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: Another really good performance from him.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: So Detroit's bullpen is it's a pretty good bullpen, and
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: it's their Bullpend's not totally unrested here, but they are
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: turning home from a road trip, and you know, I
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: always say when a team returns home from a road trip,
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: a lot of times they tend to be a little
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: bit distracted. You have family life to get back to. Yes,
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: they are playing a decent Tampa Bay team. Yes, Detroit
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: is good at home, but it could be a distracted spot.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: And Detroit has not even decided on a starter here,
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: so I think they're going with a bullpend game here.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: So that's another thing you have to factor into this
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: whole thing, is we're gonna get the bullpend basically for
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: the full game against Detroit for Detroit here against Tampa.
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: So we'll see how that works out.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: Tampa a decent offense, Tampa's coming that also an extra
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: inning game against Minnesota yesterday, the game that went over
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: but stayed under for us in the first five innings.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: Tampa had to use extra relief pitchers to some extent
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: because Rasmussen exited the game.
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: Again.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: I think he had an injury because it wasn't pitching
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: that badly and he only threw thirty two pitches, so
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: I think he's injured, so we gotta make sure we
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: keep an eye on that scenario.
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: They brought him Boil and he actually chewed up a
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: bunch of innings.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: He went five innings, so he kind of saved some
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: of their bullpenal though Tampa did use some of their
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: better relief pitchers as well, so Tampa's bullpen in a
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: little bit less good shape. But of course Detroit's gonna
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: have their bullpen pitching the full game, so it kind
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: of evens out a little bit. Both bullpens are decent
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: in general. Tampa has the actual starter on the mould, though,
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: so I kind of give the edge to Tampa because
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Tampa's just continuing a road trip. They're just going to
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Detroit from Minnesota. Detroit is returning, although from Cleveland's not
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: a big travel spot either, but Detroit is returning on
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: from a road trip. Tampa does have the actual starter
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: on the mound, so I am kind of leaning towards
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: Tampa here, even though their starter is Shane Boz, who
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: is not that great. He's a mixed bag four point
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: three to three ERA one point two to five whip.
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: He's better on the road though.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: That Tampa Bay stadium that they play in this year
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: Steinbrenner Field, the spring training stadium, very hitter friendly, and
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: Boz has been a lot better on the road. Two
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: point nine to one ran the road, so I think
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: you could trust Boz a little bit more here. His
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: strikeout rate has been really good for the most part
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: for a while. I had a three point two six
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: ERA in June and Tampa won all five of his starts.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: They actually won seven straight starts of visit and then
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: even though they lost his game they pitched in July,
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: he had eleven strikeouts and one walk. I went seven
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: innings allowing three on runs against the A's. That was
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: a pretty good start as well, high strikeout radys. Struck
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: out ninety or yeah, twenty guys actually over the last
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: two starts, only walking too, So his last two starts
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: have been quite good, even though one was against KC
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: and we know they're not a good offense. The A's
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: offense is okay, but Boz currently is in good form
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: and he is better on the road, so that's all
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: helpful for Boz. His numbers against Detroit small sample size,
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: but pretty good numbers in twenty three at bats held
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: him to a one to seventy four average, six oh
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: one ops, six to four strike a walk ratio, too
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: many walks, but generally, Boz, I think this sets up
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: nicely for him here, man, I think he's in Yeah,
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: I think he's pitching well right now. He's in good form,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: he's better on the road, good numbers against Detroit. So
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: slight lean to Tampa here. I'm not gonna recommend to
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: play on it. Tampa is a road favorite here, though,
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: see maybe laying a little bit too much of a price,
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: but it is down for minus one twenty one to
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: minus one nineteen, so it is still a fairly cheap price,
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: basically kind of like a pick the winner scenario. Detroit
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: maybe getting a little bit disrespected in the market just
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: because they're probably going with a bullpen game. But I
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: do think Tampa makes sense in that game. Colorado at Boston. Boston,
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: my Red Sox are turning home from a quick road trip.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: But they went to Washington. They swept Washington. As I
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: always say, a return home spot usually is bad because
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: you're trying to get back to family life and whatever,
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: but maybe not in this instance, because it was just
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: a quick road trip down to DC. But they might
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: be feeling a little bit high on themselves because they
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: just did beat Washington in an easy sweep. For the
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: most part, Colorado starting a road trip, and a lot
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: of times when a team starts a road trip, they
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: tend to be a little bit extra focused. Colorado finally
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: beat the White Sox yesterday to avoid the sweeps that
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: might give them a little bit of momentum coming into this.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: Even though Colorado did use a little bit of their bullpen,
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: their bullpen stinks and the Red Sox bullpen has actually
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: been pitching a little bit better, but the Red Sox
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: used a lot of their bullpen as well, so slight
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: edge to the bullpen for the Red Sox. Offense edge
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: obviously goes to the Red Sox. But looking at we
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: gotta look at the starting pitching here. Austin Gomber is
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: gonna be pitching for the Rockies five point four to
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: nine ERA one point five to three whip back numbers,
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: but his numbers are better on the road zero ERA
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: on the road so far, But it's only one start
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: at Atlanta, but he did shut them out, and really
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: he's made only four starts on the season, and three
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: of them have actually been fairly good, even though his
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: strikeout rate hasn't been high, so that's an issue. He's
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: not striking guys out, but he got bombed against Arizona,
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: and his other three starts are actually all good as
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: far as not allowing that many runs. He allowed two
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: or fewer earned runs at all three other starts and
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: went exactly five innings in all three, So Gomber, I mean,
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: he's not exactly the worst pitcher for Colorado, at least
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: up against the Red Sox. Small sample size twenty four bats,
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: but he has a five to one strike a walk
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: ratio against them, one sixty seven average and four fifty ops,
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: so he actually has pretty good numbers in that smallest
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: sample size against the Red Sox. The Red Sox are
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: gonna be going with Richard fitz Dick Fits. I'm he
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: kind of gives me fits, to be honest, because I
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: can't figure him out. Four point five one point two
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: to five whip. I mean, those numbers aren't that bad.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: He's still a young guy, but he's been pretty bad
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: at home with an eight point one ERA at home.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: I know it's all in a small sample size. He's
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: only made a few starts at home this year, one
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: of them really bad against Anaheim. He had a couple
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: of really bad starts against Anaheim and against all other teams.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: He actually hasn't really been that bad. He's coming off
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: only going three innings against Cincinnati though, so the Red
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: Sox have kind of been limiting his pitches a little
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: bit in some of these games. So we also don't
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: know how deep fits. How deep is Dick gonna go
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: into this game?
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: Man?
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: How deep will the Dick fit in this In this game,
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: I don't know. It remains to be seen.
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: We don't know. We'll see what happens, man. So it's
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: really hard to predict this game.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: Up against Colorado, I think they actually have seen Fits before.
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: I know they haven't.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: I was gonna say I looked earlier and I was like,
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: wait a minute, they've hit against him before. Now they haven't,
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: so fits. One advantage that he does have, at least
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: is that he's unfamiliar to the Colorado hitters in Colorado
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: are not a good offense, so they at least have
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: that going for them. The Red Sox are a huge
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: favor here, and I don't think you can do anything
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: with the Red Sox returning home from a sweep on
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: the road and with Fits on the mound. I just
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: don't think you could lay a price like this with
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox for minus two hundred to minus two fifteen.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: They're very public. I think maybe the over is worth
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: considering in this game. Fenway Park a pretty hitter friendly ballpark,
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: even though I know Colorado's offense isn't good, but Fits
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: might not do well here. Red Sox bullpen is kind
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: of used up a little bit and might come into
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: this game early. Colorado also might come into this game.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: Their bullpen might come into this game a little bit
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: early as well. Although again, Gomber does actually have fairly
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: good numbers against the Red Sox. But eighty four percent
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: of tickets ninety five percent of the cash on the over.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: Books threw the total out there at nine and a
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: half and it's already juiced to the over, so that's
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: a pretty high total. Books kind of telling you what
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: you need to know with that number there, So maybe
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: a look towards the over in that game Miami at Cincinnati,
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: the Reds are returning on from a road trip, so
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: he got a lot of teams returning on from road trips,
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: but I couldn't really come up with justification to actually
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: give out a play fading any of these teams. Although
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: the Reds played the Red Sox and Philadelphia, so they're
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: returning home off of a pretty big series against Philadelphia. Again,
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: team returning on from a road trip not the greatest spot.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati did use a lot of their bullpen yesterday and
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: it's not a great bullpen, but they're facing Miami, who
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: is also not a good bullpen. Miami is starting a
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: road trip, though, so they are in the better situational spot.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: They should be a little bit more focused starting a
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: road trip here. And Miami did not use a lot
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: of their bullpen yesterday. They actually only used baozo and
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: that's it out of their bullpen there. So Miami's bullpen
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: has actually got of in better shape coming into this.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: So there are some reasons to maybe look towards Miami
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: here with Cincinnati being in the bad spot. Junk is
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: gonna be a pitching for Miami. I always call him
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: a junk pitcher. He has some decent numbers on the
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: season three point six to two, one point one to
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: three whip. He's been bad on the road five point
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: four road ERA, and pitching a great American ballpark isn't
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: gonna be that easy because it's a hit or friendly ballpark.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: Junk was coming out of the bullpen early in the year.
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: He's been in the starting rotation for a while. He
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: actually hasn't been that terrible. He had a couple of
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: bad starts that were kind of inexplicable against Pittsburgh and
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: San Francisco. Bad offenses, but they did both come on
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: the road, so that is something to keep in mind.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: Junk seems to be significantly better at home than on
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: the roads. That is definitely something to worry about. Even
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: though he did have a good outing last time out
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: against Minnesota, not a good offense, but he went six innings,
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: two runs, allowed seven strikeouts, no walks, so he actually
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: had a good outing there. He had a seventeen to
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: one strike a walk ratio in June despite having a
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: four point eight four ERA because he was just giving
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: up a lot of hits.
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: But again, two bad starts really skewed his numbers. But
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: then again they were starts on the road, So a
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: lot of things to consider here. I'm probably leading towards
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: Junk not being that good in this game, though, because
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: of his struggles on the road and this being a
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: hitter friendly park, Cincinnati basically has never seen him before
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: except Trevino. Was one for two, often with an RBI
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: and a strikeout, so at least Junk does have kind
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: of an unfamiliarity edge against Cincinnati, but he's up against
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: Brady Singer, who is the more proven starter here. Although
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: he hasn't been having a great season his first season
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: with Cincinnati four point three six ERA, one point three
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: to four WHIP, those numbers aren't that great. He's actually
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: been a bit better at home though, four point zero
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: four e R in a very low one ninety six
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: batting average, so he's not allowed a lot of hits
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: at home, although he's allowed seven home runs, so that's
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: kind of why the ERA is a bit higher. A
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: very low opponent of batting average at home, but a
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: lot of home runs allowed a Singer not really exactly
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: a good form over his last couple of starts, although
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: they were against the Yankees and the Red Sox, so
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: a couple of difficult offenses to face, but he walked
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: five guys in that spandle he did strikeout thirteen, so
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: he got a lot of strikeouts, but he was putting
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: a lot of guys on base. He allowed six runs
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: in eight innings, which is not a good sign. So
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: coming off a couple of bad starts, the Reds have
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: lost three straight starts of his which isn't that great either.
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: But the good thing for Singer at least is that
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: he's stepping down a class here to face a pretty
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: weak Miami offense, and he's done well against him in
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: the past and twenty four at bats, seven strikeouts, no
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: walks against him on one sixty seven average, three seventy
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: five ops, so Singer at least does match up well.
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: In this one.
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: So I just can't really justify the fade of Cincinnati
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: in the return home spot. The market seems to have
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: some conflicting signals as well, with a number down for
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: minus one forty five to minus one thirty one On
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: the Reds.
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: They're public slightly.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: Sixty six percent of tickets but sixty nine percent of
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: the cash, so even though the money line dropped on them,
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: the cash percentage looks like it's on Cincinnati, so I
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: probably I don't know, man, I might still just have
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: a slight lean to Miami, just based on the situation,
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: but I really can't justify it, even though they aren't
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: getting a underdog.
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: Price there, So that's a stay away.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: Next up, I'm gonna give out on one of these
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: totals here, and it's Dodgers Brewers under the totals under
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: full game seven and a half. I've found it a
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: decent price at minus one oh two out there.
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: I'm going full game here, partially because I just can't
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: really justify going under three and a half in the
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: first five innings. Man, I hate that three and a
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: half number. I always am looking to try to get
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: four when I go first five innings because I don't
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: like these bullpens.
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: The Dodgers' bullpen has actually really been struggling recently, and
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: they're actually.
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: Down to the bottom third of bullpens now.
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: I was looking at the hitting sorry right here, Dodgers
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: are actually like the seventh worst bullpen now ya wise,
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: which is pretty bad, and Milwaukee's not that much better.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: The Milwaukee's actually been a little bit improved recently bullpen wise,
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: So I am worried a little bit about the bullpens,
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: so I was kind of looking to exclude them here.
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: Dodgers actually used a decent amount of their bullpen yesterday,
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: but both teams kind of have some of their better
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: relievers I think still available for the game today even Actually,
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: I think Milwaukee did use a couple of their better
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: relievers yesterday because they had a close win yesterday. But
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: the reason why I'm going full game again is because
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: of the number. I think the number in the first
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: five innings is just a little bit short, and I
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: think both starting pitchers are good enough they can get
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: us deep enough into this game that we don't have
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: to deal with the bullpens for that many innings.
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: So you kind of have to weigh all of those factors.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: So I know, maybe we're weighing the starting pitching too
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: heavily here, But if both starting pitchers can get us
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: deep enough into this game, I think the full game
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: under is what makes sense here. Milwaukee is also returning
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: over from a road trip, so again that's usually a
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: bad spot for a team, So I think the Dodgers
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: are actually in a positive situational spot here too. Milwaukee, again,
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: returning home from a road trip is usually a distracted spot.
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: You got to get back to family life.
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: But of course I don't think Milwaukee's gonna be totally
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: unfocused when it's the Dodgers coming into their place, you know.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, you're facing one of the best teams in baseball,
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: so it's probably not gonna be a spot you're gonna
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: totally overlook. So that's why I'm another reason why I'm
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: looking towards the total more than the side here.
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: But the Dodgers, they're gonna be pissed. Man. They just
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: got swept.
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: At home by Houston and really got bombed in the
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: first game and really had a bad offensive showing only
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: scoring six runs in the entire series and just getting
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: absolutely blasted for the most part, getting out scored in
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: the series.
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: What is that twenty nine to six. I mean, that's
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: pretty bad.
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: And starting a road trip, I think it's a positive
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: spot for the Dodgers. After having a bad series at home,
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: we just get to forget about it, don't listen to
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: the media, just go out on the road, focus on baseball.
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: So I think it is a positive spot for the Dodgers.
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: So I am slightly near to the Dodgers side as well,
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: but I like the total better man and Milwaukee their
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: offense has actually been worse at home than on the road,
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: So I think that's gonna help us with this under
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: here as well, Milwaukee's offense being significantly worse.
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: Actually, they have weird home.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: Road splits where their offense is one of the best
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: on the road and it's very at home, even though
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: they do generally have a good offense, and the fact
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: that on a return home trip usually the bats can
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: get a little bit cold and kind of fall into
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: that distraction spot. So I think that's all coming into
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: play here, and they're gonna have to go up against Yamamoto,
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: who we know is he's the best pitcher on the
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: Dodgers man two point five one ERA one point zero
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: one whip. He's actually been better on the road too,
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: with a one point five to seven road ERA, and
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: he's only allowed two of the nine home runs he's
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: allowed this year on the road, so Yamamoto has actually
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: been better on the road. He's coming back nicely from
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: when he was injured earlier. I think he was injured
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: for a bit earlier in the season. His last couple
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: outings have been quite good, going back three his last
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: three outings, he has what is that a nineteen to
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: two strike out walk ratios. He is definitely back in
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: form again. Last two starts he went twelve innings. I
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: only allowed one run over that span and four hits,
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: had a fourteen to.
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: Two strike out walker ratio.
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: Granted it was against Colorado and the White Sox, bad offenses,
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: but he did at least pitch incorse Field.
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: In one of them.
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: So yes, Yamamoto is having a step backup in class
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: here to face a good Milwaukee offense here, But he's
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: in good form right now. Again, He's striking guys out.
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: He's a very good pitcher, so I don't think he's
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: gonna be I mean, he's he's not gonna be intimidated
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: having to face Milwaukee here, and Milwaukee has actually never
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: seen Yamamoto before somehow, So I think that's an extra
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: edge for Yamamoto. When you have this guy who's a
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: really talented pitcher who hasn't been in the league that
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: long and he's facing an offense that actually hasn't seen
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: him before, that offense usually is gonna struggle a little
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: bit trying to figure the guy out, at least the
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: first couple of times they have to face him. So
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: I think that's an added edge to Yamamoto here. And
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: Yamamoto certainly is used to pitching in the majors at
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: this point, this being his second season. So I like
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: how this sets up for Yamamoto. And you know, I
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: like Freddy Peralta too, Man. I was on Freddy Peralta's game.
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: I was on the Brewers the last time he pitched.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: I gave that out as a play. I'm gonna go
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: with Freddy Parolta to pitch well again here though. I
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: know he's facing a good Dodgers lineup, but the Dodgers
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: offense has been struggling recently, man, so they're not in
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: the greatest hitting form right now, and it's not gonna
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: be that easy to face Milwaukee's ace here. Paralta two
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: point nine to one e RA one point zero nine
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: whip good stuff. He's actually way better at home, too,
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: so both pitchers have the edge with the.
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: Home road splits as well.
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: One point seven to six home the RA for Paralta,
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: so he's in better at home. He's pitching well recently
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: as well. With I'm going all the way back, I
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: mean really going all the way back to the beginning
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: of June. He had a thirty two to eight strike
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: a walk, ratio in June three point two to one
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: e RA in June. Last start on the road at
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: the Mets, which was the play I gave out on
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: the show here, he went six innings, allowed only two runs,
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: six strikeouts, one walks. He's in really good form right now.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: Last two outings he has fourteen strikeouts, one walk over
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: eleven innings pitched, allowed nine hits in five and runs.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: Isn't that great, but still, I mean, he's in command
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: of his pitches right now. Man, he usually walks a
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: few too many guys, but his walk numbers haven't been
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: that bad recently. His strikeout rate is pretty high. Milwaukee's
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: won four straight starts of his. But we're not going
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: with Milwaukee to win this one. We're going with the
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: under here and Paralta up against the Dodgers. Yes, they've
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: seen him before. I mean, he's been around for a
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: while now, but his numbers against the Dodgers are good.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: In ninety six at bats, he sell him to a
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: two twenty nine average, slightly high six ninety eight ohps
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: because too many walks again for Paralta, seventeen strikeouts, ten walks.
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: He's giving up four home runs a one to four
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: different batters. But uh, really, the only concern with these
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: numbers is the walk numbers, So I mean that's just
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: something you gotta deal with with Paralta, but usually he's
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: able to pitch through walking a few guys. So we're
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: gonna go under in this game. And hopefully the bullpends
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: get used sparingly in this game. Hopefully the starters get
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: us deep enough into this game, because I think when
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: you're going with starters that are this good, you're really
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: looking at these starters hopefully getting you like six, maybe
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: even seven innings in this game. Hopefully we can so
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: the bullpens don't have to do that much of the
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: heavy lifting here. So under full game is the recommendation
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: in that one. And if we look at the market
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: read on this, the totals drop from eight to seven
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: and a half or though we do see fifty two
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: percent ticket sixty percent of cash on the over, I
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: don't know if I buy that higher cash percentages on
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: the over man.
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: I think the initial drop on the total, I think.
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: It's the accurate move there, and it's also the public
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: you would have to think is gonna want overs in
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: a Dodgers Brewers game.
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: I mean, they know both of these teams can hit.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: Even though both these pitchers are good, you gotta think
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: the public is probably gonna be on the over more
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: than what this number would suggest here, So I kind
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: of think it's even like a fade of a public
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: sentiment to go with an under in a game like this,
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: So that's what I'm doing there. The money appears also
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: be coming in on the Dodgers as a road favorite here,
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: even though they dropped a little bit from minus one
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: forty five to twenty six, sixty one percent of tickets
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: eighty one percent of the cash coming in on the Dodgers. Yes,
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: I do agree the Dodgers are in the better spot,
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: as I pointed out, but maybe laying a favorite price
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: like this on the Dodgers just kind of doesn't make
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: sense because the Dodgers' bullpen has been really bad. I
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: think both starting pitchers can kind of duel each other
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: in this game. Dodgers do have the better offense, but
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee's offense is still fairly good as well, so I
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: don't see the Dodgers having so much of an advantage
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: they should be that much of a favorite on the
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: road either, Even though y'a'm a moto certainly good. So
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: we're staying away from the side and that one total
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: is the recommendation. David, what's up man? Thanks for hanging
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: out man. Happy Monday to you as well. All right,
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: trying to get through this. That was a long explanation
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: on that game. Pittsburgh at Kansas City another team returning
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: on from a road trip, and Kansas City went out
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: to the Pacific Coast.
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: They went to Seattle and Arizona, and they actually had
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: a decent road trip.
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: They beat Arizona at least to finish the road trip off.
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: Kansas City actually started scoring some runs in a couple
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: of games at least.
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: Zach, what's up man? Yeah.
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: Explosive offense. Yeah, that's right. Royals had one game of
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: their offense really exploded. Other pitching kind of got them
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: the job done. Shocking Lorenzoen with a good start yesterday
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: for the Royals. Now, the Royals are returning over from
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: a road trip, and you know, I keep saying a
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: team returning over from a road trip, it's not a
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: good spot. They tend to be a little bit distract
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: and I don't think Pittsburgh is really a team that's
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: gonna draw Kansas City's full focus. So situationally, I think
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: this is a bad spot for the Royals here. Royals
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: certainly have the better bullpend though, and the Royals did
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: not use that much of their bullpen yesterday, so there
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: was a pretty major bullpen advantage.
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: Here for the Royals.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is having to come in from the Pacific coast,
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: so that's not necessarily easy either. Although Pittsburgh, this is bizarre, man.
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: You almost never see something like this. Pittsburgh swept Saint
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: Louis and shut Saint Louis out in the entire three
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: game series, and then they got swept and got shout
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: out in an entire series against Seattle. So it's just bizarre, man.
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, Pittsburgh, they're not a good offense, but they
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: should at least be able to score something, I would
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: think against Kansas City, even though Kansas City's pitching is
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: pretty good. But I think Pittsburgh coming off such an
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: ugly series like this is gonna maybe have a little
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: bit of extra focus coming into this game against k C.
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: Although yes, they are having to shift time zones here,
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: but so is Kansas City. I mean, both teams are
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: coming back from the Western US, so the travel spot
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: is somewhat similar, though it's still worse in my opinion
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: for Kansas City because they're turning over from a road trip.
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: Looking at the starting pitching, Andrew he and He is
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: pitching for Pittsburgh, been pretty mediocre, been kind of bad
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: recently four point one six ERA. Now in the season,
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: those numbers are going up one point two WHIP. He's
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: been worse on the road five point seventy nine roadie, right,
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: so he's definitely struggled on the road.
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: Recently.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: He had two really bad starts against Detroit m Milwaukee,
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: both on the road. Came back home and had a
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: nice shutout performance against Saint Louis with seven strikeouts one walk.
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: I don't know if we're ready to say that he
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: and He is fully back though, because in June overall
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: he wasn't good five point five to seven ERA a
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: lot because those two starts really blew his ERA up.
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: He had a twenty seven to seven strike a walk
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: ratio over the month, which wasn't that bad. So we
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: got to figure out is he and He actually returning
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: to form here with that last out, eve know it
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: was actually pretty good, or is he gonna continue to struggle.
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: And yeah, he's been bad on the road, but then again,
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: he's faced a lot of good offenses on the road.
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: He had to go to Cincinnati, which not necessarily a
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: great offense, but that ballpark as a hitter friendly ballpark.
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: He faced Philadelphia, Arizona, San Diego, Cubs, Detroit, and Milwaukee
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: on the road, so his opponent city's faced on the
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: road actually haven't been that good, so or have been good?
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: Excuse me.
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: So he's faced a lot of good offenses on the road,
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: So he is actually stepping down in class a little
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: bit or a bit to face this pretty bad Kansas City,
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: So maybe he will actually do well in this particular game.
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: Thirty seven at bats against Kansas City. Over his career,
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: they've actually hit him well, though two seventy average nine
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: hundred ops eleven to five strike a walk ratio. Kanna
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: has really hit him well seven for twenty two with
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: two home runs, three walks, six strikeouts. Only four of
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: their hitters have actually seen him before, though, so half
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: of Kansas City's lineup has not even seen heeni before,
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: so it's a mixed bag. The guys that have seen
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: him have done well. It's hard to gauge what we
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: think we're gonna get out of him in this game.
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Noah Cameron, who is a pretty
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: talented rookie for Kansas City two point five six ERA,
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: one point zero one whip good numbers this year. He's
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: been worse at home though, four point two to eight ERA,
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: so both pitchers have the both pitchers are not on
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: the right side of their home road splits here. Cameron
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: somewhat bounced back in his last start, only allowing four hits,
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: no runs, five strikeouts, one walk only when four and
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: two thirds innings against Seattle, But at least he kind
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: of bounced back after a bad start the previous start
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: against the Dodgers. His two really bad starts this year
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: against two of the best offenses Yankees Dodgers, so he
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: is stepping way down in class to face this really
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: bad Pittsburgh offense here. So that's at least something that
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: he can kind of hang his hat on here. So
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: I think Cameron probably will do fairly well in this one.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: Even though his walk number is definitely higher than you'd
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: like to see on the season, his strikeout number isn't
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: really that high. Overall, he's been fairly good though his
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: overall numbers are good, and of course Pittsburgh has never.
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: Seen him before because he is a rookie.
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: So Cameron should have a little bit of an extra
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: edge because he is a pretty good young pitcher facing
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: a weak offense that has never seen him before. So
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: I think Cameron does have the upper hand in the
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup. Kansas City has the better bulpen as well.
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: Both offenses stink, so you'd think the advantage should be
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: to Kansas City, but the situation with the return home
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: spot is not good, and we actually see the market
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: kind of reflecting that seventy one percent of the tickets
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: around Kansas City but only fifty seven percent of the cash.
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: They're down for minus one forty five to minus one
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: forty three on the money line, So the actual money
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: looks like it's coming in towards uh the Pirates in
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: this game. And we do actually see money towards the
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: over as well. Here seventy five percent tickets on the
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: under but sixty percent ash on the over. You think, well,
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: two really bad offenses, looks like it could be an
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: under type of game, right, I would not really want
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: to play the over here because I could see both pictures.
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: There are reasons why both pitchers might have a good
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: game here, but the number has moved up from eight
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: and a half to nine. The money coming in on
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: the over kind of expecting both pitchers to maybe struggle
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: a little bit here. So I will not be recommending
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: anything on that game, although slight lean against Kansas City,
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: just because usually by default, I'm just like, yeah, you
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: should probably fade the team returning over from a road
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: trip and go with the team it's coming off a
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: really ugly series, so slightly into the Pirates in that game,
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: just because of the situation.
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: Toronto is at the White Sox. The White Socks.
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: Didn't I have to use that much of their bullpen yesterday,
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: but they're returning home from a road trip as well,
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: and usually that gets exacerbated with a bad team like
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: the White Sox in a bad return home spot like this,
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: Usually bad team does even worse in that spot. Typically
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: they're coming back from facing La and Colorado, so they
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: went to the Pacific coast and it's a high elevation,
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: so not a great spot for the White Sox. So
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: they did not use a lot of their bullpend yesterday.
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: At least White Sox bullpen is not a very good bullpen,
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: though Toronto has the better bullpen.
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: In Toronto, they're.
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: Coming off two sweeps in a row, Man a huge
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: sweep of the Yankees, and then they also swept Anaheim.
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: They've won eight games in a row, but in the
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: Anaheim series they won every game by one running.
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: It's a pretty bad Anaheim team.
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: So maybe Toronto looking a little bit better than they
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: really are right now. At some point they're gonna have
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: like a letdown spot, but right now they are. They
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: are on a hot streak right now. It might not
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: be something you necessarily want to jump in front of.
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: And they are starting a road trip with momentum. A
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: lot of times when a team starts a road trip
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: with momentum, it is a decent.
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: Spot, a focused spot.
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: But I don't know how focused they're going to be
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: on a White Sox team is pretty bad. But then again,
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: White Sox are turning over from a road trip, probably
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: a worse spot for the White Sox. Toronto again does
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: have the better bullpen, but their bullpend is more used
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: over the last couple of games, so that kind of
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: balances out a little bit, but Rio suspicion for Toronto
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: here three point six four ERA one point two to
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: four WHIP Decent numbers on the season, better on the
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: road three point two road ERA. Coming off a bad start,
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: but it was against the Yankees, and I see that
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: maybe more as a bit of a blip than anything
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: else against a good offense. He still had three strikeouts
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: no walks in that game, but they give up nine
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: hits six runs, only lasted four and a third. He
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: did get hit hard in that game, but I think
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: he might bounce back here, although the White Sox did
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: just see him back on June twenty first. He did
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: well in that start, didn't allow any runs, only two
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: hits and seven to two thirds innings, so they walked
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: three guys, But overall that was a good start for Barrios.
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: The White Sox might do a little bit better this
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: time out because they just saw him.
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: But Barrios, I.
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: Mean, he's not a young guy, he's not a mystery,
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: so these offense have already seen him before, and I
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: think he just matches up well against the White Sox
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: and their offense stinks, so I think Barrios might be
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: able to do well again. Here seventy four at bats
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: in his career against the White Sox two forty three average,
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: although a somewhat high seven to twenty eight ops because
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: he has a lot of bunch of extra base hits.
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: Here Ben and Tendy and Noda actually do pretty well.
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: Noda also beat Nick Sarwark in New Hampshire, I believe
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: for the libertarian people that follow me, here Ben and
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: Tendy ten for thirty five, often with two doubles, a triple,
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: a home run, four walks. Noda three for eight with
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: a home run, to double, a couple of RBIs, two walks.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: So those two guys maybe some player prop potential there.
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: Barrios overall does fine against the White Sox though, twenty
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: three to seven strike a walk ratio as well, so
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: I'm kind of expecting Brios will do fine in this game.
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: I think he has the upper hand over Sean Burke,
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: who's having an okay rookie season here for the White
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: Sox four point three ra but a pretty high one
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: point four whip is not very good. He's in better
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: at home though, three point oh six home era, and
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: he's actually pitching well recently over his last three starts,
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: he's only allowed one or fewer earned runs, and all
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: three starts he's gone at least five innings in all
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: three and he has a what is that a nineteen
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: to five strike a walk ratio.
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: So he's actually been pretty good recently.
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: Really, going back to the start of June, he only
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: had one bad start where he got bombed at Houston.
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: Even going all the way back to late May, he's
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: allowed two or fewer earned runs in every start except
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: that Houston one. So Burke sneakily is actually kind of
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: in good form right now. Up against who are he
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: facing here, Toronto? I don't know if Toronto's seen him before.
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: They have not, so Burke might have a little bit
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: of extra edge because Toronto hasn't.
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: Seen him before.
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: So maybe Burke actually has a little bit of an
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: edge here in the starting pitching matchup. Even though I
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: know I don't want to play the White Sox in
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: a return home spot like this, but Toronto is very public.
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: Eighty seven percent of ticket, sixty seven percent of the cash,
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: so the cash is fading Toronto here.
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: They're down for.
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: Minus one sixty five toy minus went sixty four. Yeah,
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think in a matchup like this, you're
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: probably laying too much of a price on Toronto. I mean,
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: the stock is very high on Toronto right now because
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: if won eight games in a row, they're leading the
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: Al East. Everybody just saw them sweep the Yankees. But yeah,
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, Toronto's definitely playing well right now. But maybe
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: they're not quite as good as the record looks, and
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: I think maybe the price is a little bit too
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: high on Toronto right now.
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: But I'm not gonna play the game at all.
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's no way I'm gonna play a bad
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: White Sox team in a bad situational spot. Another return
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: home spot here with Houston. I think Houston's in a
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: bad spot as well, returning home from going to Colorado
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: into elevation and then they swept the Dodgers. They won
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: all but one game on the road trip. Sweeping the
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: Dodgers is crazy, man. As I said, they dominated the
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: Dodgers pretty much in that series, and now they're returning
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: home from that. I think it's a bad spot for Houston, man,
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: and they're facing this bad Cleveland team. I don't think
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: Houston is going to be totally focused here, So on
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: the surface, I'm looking at this, I'm like.
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: Man, this is a fade spot that Houston.
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: Is in here again, you get distractions coming into play
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: when you have to return home. You're probably feeling really
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: high on yourselves after sweeping the Dodgers, huge series for Houston,
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: and you're facing this awful Cleveland team right now that
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: hasn't done anything well. I mean, if you want Cleveland,
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: you do have to jump in front of this train wreck.
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: Basically where Cleveland has lost how many games is this
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: in a row?
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: Now? Ten?
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: I think they've lost ten games in a row and
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: their offense has been pretty bad for the most part
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: of that span. So yeah, Cleveland is playing some of
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: the worst baseball in all of Major League Baseball right now.
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: But at the very least you could say Cleveland is
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: starting a road trips. They might be a little bit focused,
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: and they're facing a team that has a good record
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: in Houston. But they are coming off some big series
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: against the Cubs against Detroit.
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: They had Detroit on the ropes yesterday.
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: And the way they blew that game maybe not a
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: good spot for Cleveland either here, man, because Cleveland was
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: up one nothing late in that game they almost won,
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: even though they were facing school ball in the game.
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: They almost won against Detroit's bullpend yesterday, and Cleveland's bullpend
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: wanted up blowing the game. So I really don't want
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: any part of Cleveland here either, man. I think they
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: might be in a little bit of a hangover spot
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: after that. Cleveland also used a lot of their bullpend
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: yesterday and they have the worst bullpen of the two,
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: so I don't trust Cleveland's bullpen at all. Tanner Biby's pitching,
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: So if you look at just the starting pitching matchup,
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: it does look like Cleveland has a little bit of
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: an edge with their best starting pitcher pitching four point
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: two ERA though one point two to four with Byby's
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: numbers have gotten a little bit worse lately, but I
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: think it's just because he got wrecked in his last start.
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: But he's also been pretty bad on the road. Five
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: point four Roady Ray. That's not good. As last start,
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: he got shelled by the Cubs on the road a
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: four walks in the game as well five earned runs
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: in four innings. I almost threw one hundred pitches, was
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: very inefficient, struck out five. He was pitching well prior
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: to that, though, the Cubs are a good offense, So
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: maybe you give him a little bit of a pass
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: for that, because he did have a thirty two to
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: five strike a walk ratio in three point nine to
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: eight e RA in the five previous starts in June.
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: So maybe Biby again, maybe he bounces back a little
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: bit because that was just maybe a blip against a
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: really good offense.
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: He's definitely he's stepping down in class a bit to
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: face a Houston offense. That's just okay. But his numbers
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: are actually not good against Houston either.
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: In twenty six at bats, they have a three forty
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: six average off and Walker as a home run off him,
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: and Walker's been pretty hot recently too, on nine oh
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: nine ops against him, So Biby not many strike cuts either,
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: three strike cuts with only one walk. But Bibby actually
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: has not done that well against Houston, So I hesitate
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: to want to back byby here man when he's coming
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: off a bad start. His numbers against Houston they're not
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: that good, even though I think he is generally better
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: than Colton Gordon, who overall his numbers aren't very good.
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: Four point three to seven ERA, one point four to
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: one WHIP his home road splits are basically the same,
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: so nothing to really see there. Gordon coming off a
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: bad start, but maybe that was a blip because it
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: was at cours Field. Although Grant in Colorado's offense is
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: really not good, but he gave up nine hits, two walks,
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: and four and two thirds innings, was very inefficient with
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: his pitches, only throwing almost ninety pitches, did have three strikeouts,
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: give up.
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: A home run, four earned runs.
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: Bad start for Gordon, although maybe again you could say
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: it was the environment cours Field because he's only a
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: lot more than three earned runs one other time.
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: Houston still won that game.
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: Houston has won what seven of his nine starts this
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: season or something like that, so Houston has been good
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: behind him. His strike out walk racing on the season
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: is good forty one to seven, but he's allowed nine
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: home runs and he's allowed fifty seven hits and forty
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: five and a third inning. So even though I like
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: looking at strike out walk numbers, man and they look
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: good for Colton Gordon, his command appears to be pretty good,
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: but he's getting hard hit man, so it's like when
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: he does put pitches over the plate, they get hit
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: He's allowed way too many home runs, way too many hits.
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: So I think he's the worst of the two pitchers
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: between him and Biby Man. It's just that Biby the
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: matchup doesn't look that great for him here Man. For Gordon,
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: I believe Cleveland has never seen him before, and Cleveland's
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: offense stinks.
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: Actually my mistake.
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: Cleveland has seen him before, and they actually did well,
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: actually my mistake. In fifteen at bats, they have a
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: four hundred average against him, eight hundred oh ps, four strikeouts,
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: no walks though, so again very typical of Gordon. He
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: allowed a lot of hits to them, but struck out
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: some guys and didn't walk anybody in basically limited the damage.
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: I think he only allowed one run. That start was
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: here back on June sixth. He went five innings, He
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: allowed seven hits, but he didn't have any walks. Like
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: I said, five strikeouts, allowed one in run, so he
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: actually had a good start against Cleveland. Cleveland's offense isn't good,
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: but then again, his numbers don't look that good against Cleveland.
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: I think he kind of escaped.
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: I think Gordon has kind of been an escape artist
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: this year, even though I was kind of praising his
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio. I'm not ready to trust him, man,
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm almost kind of thinking an over makes
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: sense in this game.
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: Even though we see fifty percent of tickets eighty two
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: percent of the couch on the under, the total has
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: gone up a little bit from seven to seven and
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: a half.
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: To me, there's not a lot of room for error
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: there with that total.
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: So with Bibing not having a good start last time out,
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: bad matchup numbers, Gordon really isn't that good either, and
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: his matchup numbers don't look good.
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: He had a bad start last.
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: Time out as well, So I'm kind of thinking over
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: might be worth the look in this game. And Cleveland's
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: bulk then isn't that good, so you at least get
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: that on your side if you do that. The number
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: has also dropped big time on Houston, down for just
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: one eighty to minus one thirty seventy five percent of
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: the tickets only fifty three percent of the cash. So
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: the public really wants to back Houston, but the money
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: is completely against it. If you like Cleveland, you've lost
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: a lot of value here of them. And if you do,
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: I mean I might go first five innings because Cleveland's
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: bullpen is just so bad he might just want to
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: grab Cleveland moneyline first five innings. I don't hate the
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: full game though, either, just because I think the spot
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: is that bad for Houston. It is a letdown spot.
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: So I do still lean to the Cleveland side in
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: that game as well. Andrew, what's up man, Thanks for
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: hanging out everybody, all right, Yeah, so I still do
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: lean to Cleveland in that game. Next up, Andrew, just
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: in time, because I'm gonna talk about your Anaheim Angels
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: here or your wife's Anaheim Angels, and I'm gonna go
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: under in this game as well. Also at seven and
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: a half. Again, seven is a key number in baseball, man.
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: You want to get under. You want to get on
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: the right side of the seven, because seven is what
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: breaks the three three tigh. And in this game, just
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: like I said with the other under, I know we're
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: dealing with one really bad bullpen in Anaheim. Texas' bullpen
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: is better. And Texas bullpen actually got some rest yesterday.
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: They used like a long relief man yesterday for like
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: three innings or something. Lats I think came into the game.
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: So Texas bullpen is good and in good shape right now.
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: Anaheim's bullpen, of course, is terrible, but I think Anaheim
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: at least, yeah, they've used some of their better relievers
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: of the last few games. But I think at least
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: what we're banking on here is that we're gonna get
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: some deep outings from our starting pitchers here. So hopefully
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be the case here, and at least for
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: Anaheim at least, they're facing a Texas offense that's been
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: pretty weak all season, and Anaheim's offense, I think is
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: a little bit overrated, So I think we're getting some
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: offenses that aren't really that good here. Again, I kind
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: of like the first five innings a little bit more
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: just because I kind of wanted to avoid Anaheim's bullpen.
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: But you have to go under three and a half,
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: just like I said with Dodgers Brewers, you have to
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: go under three and a half, and I really don't
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: like that number. So I'd rather extend it to the
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: full game, get on the right side of the seven,
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: and hope that our starters get us like six to
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: seven innings deep into this game. We still avoid the
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: bullpends for like two thirds of the game. That's kind
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: of what we're hoping on hoping for here. I think
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: we might be able to do it in this game. Man, Anaheim,
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: they're returning on from a road trip, so they're also
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: in a bad spot a lot of teams returning on
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: from road trips.
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: Today. They went all the way east to Atlanta and.
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: Then up to Toronto, so they're traveling quite a bit,
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: having across three time zones back, which again, I think
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: that does help the under though, because I think it's
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: going to affect the hitting a little bit. When you
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: have a team returning on from road trips like this,
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: they tend to get a little bit distracted. Even though
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: I know this is a divisional game, Texas is just
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: a half game ahead of them in the standings here,
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: so Anaheim shouldn't really be unfocused for a big divisional
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: game against the team that's right ahead of them in
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: the standings. But again, Anaheim is still I mean, I
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: think they're a bad team. I think they're not even
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: as good as the record tells you, and the record
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: it's not even that good at this point. They're starting
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: to play pretty poorly, even though I know they lost
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: a lot of one run games here, but I don't
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: think they're that good.
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: But we're not fading the angels here.
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: We're fading the offenses here, and I think the offense
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: tends to get caught in a little bit of a
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: distracted spot whenever you have a lot of travel and
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: you have to return on from a road trip, the
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: bats can kind of get affected by that more so
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: than like an individual starter. So I think that's gonna
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: factor into this year. Texas is actually staying on the
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: West Coast, so I do like the spot for Texas
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: better as well. Texas is staying in the Pacific time zone.
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: They were just at San Diego. Although the one thing
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: I don't like about Texas is again they were in
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: one of the ESPN Sunday night games last night, so
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: in a big series against San Diego, although this is
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: a big series against a divisional foe as well, but Texas,
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: I don't quite love the idea of playing them in
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: the game, just because they did play in that night game.
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: And the money looks like it's fading Texas here. Eighty
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: two percent of the tickets on Texas only sixty three
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash. So Texas is public and we
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: see reverse live movement against them. They're down for minus
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: one to forty five to one twenty six on the
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: money line, So the money is coming in against Texas here.
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: I'm going with the under, though We're not gonna fade Anaheim,
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: even though I would probably still lean to the Texas
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: side here man. I just think situationally in the travel spot,
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: Texas being the better team and kind of being under
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: the radar, Texas having the better pitching all that offenses,
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: I don't. I think Aniam only has a slight offensive
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: advantage Texas big boltpen eze, and I think they have
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: a starting pitching edge juice. So I do still lean
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: to Texas for all those reasons. The market is saying
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: to not do that though, and again I'm going under instead.
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: We see seventy eight percent of the tickets ninety six
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the under, so it does
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: look like the actual money's coming in on the under.
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: Total just kind of sitting at seven and a half. Here.
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: We have Jacob deGrom pitching for US for Texas here man,
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: and he's been good basically all season. I mean, he's
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: he's gonna be a Hall of Famer man, even at
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: the age of thirty seven. He's still pretty much dominating
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: two point one to three ERA point eight nine whip
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: home road splits are fairly insignificant. M He's a little
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: bit worse on the road two point four ERA, which
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: is still really good. He's been in great form almost
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: the entire season, man, I mean, he hasn't allowed more
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: than to hourn runs in a start, going all the
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: way back to April eleventh.
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's pretty insane.
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: Last time out tour and runs and six innings against
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: Baltimore six to one, strike at walk ratio, five hits allowed.
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: Texas has won six straight starts of his.
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: They won every start of his in June, where he
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: had a thirty two to six strikeout walk ratio one
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: point four to one ERA. He's doing quite well here, man,
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: facing a lot of fairly weak offenses, although Anaheim also
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: not a very good offense, so it's not like he's
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: really stepping that much up in class to face Anaheim here.
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: His numbers are good against Anaheim, and they actually don't
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: have that much experience against him. They have twenty five
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: at bats against him, nine strikeouts, two walks, two hundred
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: average slightly high six to ninety nine ohps because Darnault
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: and Solaire both have home runs off him. But other
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: than that, I mean de Gram, I see those some
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: runs maybe a little bit fluky because both hitters are
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: two for eight off him. So I think overall de
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: Gram does have good numbers against Anaheim, and I expect
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: him to do well obviously.
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's been great all season.
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Usa Kakuchi, who wasn't pitching well
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: for a stretch, but he's starting to pitch really well again.
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: He has a really good two point eight one ERA
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: this year, though his walks have been an issue most
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: of the season, so his whip is way too high
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: one point three seven, which does indicate that he should
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: regress a little bit with his ERA. He should get
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: a little bit worse, but I don't think it's gonna
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: happen here where Kakuchi throughout his entire career, he's just
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: been way better at home for whatever reason, even though
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: it's been in a bunch of different stadiums.
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: He's been on.
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: Numerous teams, but he's like always better at home. He
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: has a one point one to two ERA at home
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: this year, so Kikuchi has been really good at home.
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: You want to back him at home, and he's been
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: really good over his last four starts, with seven or
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: more strikeouts and four straight starts, allowing three or fewer
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: earned runs in all four of them, five to two
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: thirds innings or more pitched in all four of them,
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: and his walk numbers have actually gone way down. Actually,
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: if you go all the way back to the A's
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: game here back on June ninth, I mean his stregot
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: walk ratio is what are we looking at here?
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: Thirty six.
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: It was thirty six to four in those four starts
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: in June, and then seven to two on top of that, so.
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: Forty what is that?
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: Forty three to six over his last five starts is
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: what his strikeout walk ratio is. So his command has
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: been really good recently after his walk numbers were really
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: high for a while, but Anaheim was still actually winning
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: behind it.
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: But we don't need Anaheim to win here.
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: We just need Kakuchi to pitch well, which he has
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: been doing at home. Actually, if you look at his
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: numbers going all the way back to late April when
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: he allowed four runs in a start against the Twins,
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: he hasn't allowed more than three on runs and any
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: starts since then, so he's limiting the damage even when
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: he's walking guys, and right now he's also not walking guys,
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: so he is pitching well. He had a two point
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: two five ERA in those five June starts, forty one
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: to nine strike a walk ratio, and up against Texas,
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: who has not been a very potent offense this year
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: one hundred and three at bats, so they are very
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: familiar with him. But he has a twenty six to
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: seven strike a walk ratio against him, two to four
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: average and five ninety four ohbs, So Texas numbers are
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: very weak off and they only have two guys who
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: have homered off and two apiece from Garcia and semi
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: in but their overall numbers aren't even good. They don't
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: have that many hits off a Kakuchi other than those
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: home runs. So I think it's a good starting pitching
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: matchup man to look towards the under here.
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: We're gonna deal with it and go full game here.
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: I think at least Texas bullpend can help us out here,
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: and the fact that Texas offense is not very potent
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: can maybe kind of help counter how bad Anaheim's bullpen
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: is so we're going under in the two games that
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: I gave out there, including this one. Those are the
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: two plays, and we have two other games here. Arizona
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: is at San Diego. San Diego of course was playing
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: in that night game on ESPN, so they are coming
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: off that, but they're not traveling. They are staying at home,
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: so that's a little bit helpful. And this is a
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: big divisional series. Man, even though Arizona has been kind
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: of falling off because they're pitching is just bad and injured,
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: so that's not really good for Arizona. But still it's
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: a big divisional matchup. I think both teams are gonna
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: show up for this game. Both teams are gonna be focused.
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: Arizona just got shut out yesterday and they've lost four
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: of the last five games, so I think they're gonna
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: come into this pissed.
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: They're actually starting a road trip here, and they're only
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: traveling from Arizona to San Diego, so not really a
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: huge travel concern for Arizona either. Teams are usually focused
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: to start a road trip. Zach Gallon is pitching for Arizona.
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: He's been really a lot worse than he should be.
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: I mean if you look at his career, I mean,
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: these numbers are really bad based on what his career
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: numbers have been. His career numbers have been a lot
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: better than this, But he's not having a good year.
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: Five point four to five ERA, one point three to
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: seven WHIP. He's been a little bit better on the
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: road five point two to one ROADYRA, which is still
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: pretty bad. I did have a good start last time
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: out against San Francisco. The other offense has been bad,
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: but he had ten strikeouts, no walks allowed, one in
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: run on a home run, five hits, and seven innings,
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: so he pretty much dominated San Francisco and that was
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: at Arizona hit her friendly ballpark. So does that mean
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: Gallen is all of a sudden back. I don't really know,
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: because he also threw one hundred pitches, and you gotta
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: worry because he had not thrown a hundred pitches in
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: any game for a while though he was getting into
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: the nineties. But maybe he's gonna regress a little bit
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: after such a really good start there. He is facing
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: a better offense this time against San Diego, and last
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: time out he faced San Diego recently, so San Diego
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: is pretty familiar with him, and Gallen didn't do well
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: in that game. Walked four guys in six and a
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: third innings to give up four and runs. Maybe he
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: should have given up more runs than that. All they
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: did have six strikeouts but six hits as well. He
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: put ten guys on base. Wasn't a good start for Gallen.
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: So San Diego being recently familiar with him, it might
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: not be a good situation.
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: For Galen here Man against San Diego.
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: Overall, his numbers are okay, They're very familiar with them
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: though one hundred and thirty seven at bats. He's held
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: him to a two forty eight average but a fairly
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: high seven to sixty ops. They have six home runs
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: off him, a thirty one to fifteen strike a walk
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: race shows a lot of walks, so they are getting
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: some hard hits and getting on base against Gallen throughout
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: their careers. So maybe Gallan is not what you want
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: to do here or not what you want to back here.
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: San Diego has you Darvish pitching, and this is gonna
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: be interesting because Darvish is coming off the DL. He
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: has not pitched yet this year. He's an aging veteran manual.
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: He's aged at this point. He's thirty eight. But I mean,
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man. Somebody see Japanese pitchers, I mean, they.
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: Could last for a while. They don't crack man.
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: Last he pitched last year for San Diego and he
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: actually was good and sixteen starts. He only pitched about
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: half the season because he's dealing with too many injuries.
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: But he was good last year three point three one
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: ERA one point oh seven. With the year before that,
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: he had a bad season though full season for San
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: Diego and looked like he was kind of trailing off
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: with a four point five to six IRM one point
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: three whip.
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: He did have a.
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: Bad season like that earlier in his career with the Cobs,
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: so maybe it's kind of I don't know, man. He
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: has like kind of these outlier seasons where he's not
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: as good, but generally he's been good throughout his career.
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: So it's really tough to gauge what we're gonna get
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: out of Darvish. But he might also be on a
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: pitch count. Remember, as I always say, with these guys
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: that are coming back from injury. Even though I know
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: Darvish is he's a veteran, he's used to coming back
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: from injury and stuff like this, So he might be
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: ready to go, but you really don't know if they're
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: gonna be on a pitch count.
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: You don't know how long they're gonna go into this game.
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: So it's definitely a concern to try to back a
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: pitcher like this that hasn't pitched all season. I looked
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: at his minor league stats. He only made one triple
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: A rehab appearance and he made He threw four innings
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: in the game. He allowed two runs, I believe, and
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: I think he had like four strikeouts in one walk
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: or no walks something like that. He was decent in
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: that start, not like terrific in the start. So we
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: really don't know what we're gonna get out of Darvish
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: here man. Of course, I mean, he's not really a
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: mystery to opposing offenses here.
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: Of course, you know that Hooey up against Arizona.
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: Arizona has certainly seen plenty of him before, because he's
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: been in the league for so long.
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: They have one hundred and fifty five at bats against him.
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: They have a two to fifty eight average, not that high,
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: but a fairly high eight sixteen ops against, and they
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: have fifty two strikeouts, a lot of strikeouts, eighteen walks,
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: decent amount of walks, eight home runs, so they have
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: had some arred hits against him. They've drawn some walks
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: against some Darvish. Throughout his career though, he's been a
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: strikeout guy and a walk guy, and he's been really
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: hard to hit. That's kind of been his thing, right,
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: Like he does put too many guys on base fee
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: of the walk, but he's quite unhittable. But we'll see
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: how unhittable he is at at an age of thirty eight.
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: Man and the money when I looked earlier, was coming
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: in against San Diego here and it still is. They're
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: down for minus one forty to minus one seventeen here,
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: sixty one percent of the ticket's only fifty percent of
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: the cash, so the money is pretty strongly fading San
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: Diego here on this spot. So it looks like the
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: professionals don't like Darvish in this first game back, and
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: maybe they think Darvish is gonna be out of the
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: game fairly early on. He'll be on a pitch count,
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: and that's a problem because San Diego actually used a
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: lot of their bullpen yesterday so even though San Diego
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: has a way better bullpen than Arizona does, the usage
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: with San Diego's bullpen yesterday is a bit of a
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: concern because they use like all of their best relief
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: pictures yesterday and Arizona didn't really use as many of
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: their relief pictures even though their bullpen stinks, which also
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: is kind of like, I'm kind of confused as to
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: why the money's coming in on the under here with
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: a total of eighty three percent of tickets on the over.
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm obviously not surprised the public wants the
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: over in a game like this, but fifty eight percent
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the under kind of surprises me.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: The money's coming in on the under here, man, So
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: the money is saying Arizona and under.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: Although you think if you like Arizona, you think that
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: you would like.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: The over more because it probably means Arizona's gonna be
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: using their own offensive advantage in the game and getting
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: some runs, because that's really the edge they have, is
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: that their offense is the better offense. But maybe it's
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: just you know, it's respect for Gallon, thinking he's gonna
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: return to for him at some point and maybe it's
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: just thinking that Darvius is just a big time question
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: mark right now.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: Maybe that's what's going on there.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: But I don't really see an argument for the under man,
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: especially with the way the bullpen's set up here.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: One bad bullpen in one used bullpen.
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: I think you could see some runs late in this game,
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: so I would worry about an under JC. What's up, man,
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out, and then we'll finish it off
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: with Philadelphia at San Francisco.
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: San Francisco played a.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: Late game last night and technically the returning home from
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: a road trip. They actually went to Chicago, then to Arizona,
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: but they've already basically returned home. Man, they've been in
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: the Bay Area, so you gotta think that this first
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: game against the A's was almost like the return home spot,
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: which might be part of the reason why they got
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: bombed in that game, because you know, they returned to
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: basically the Bay Area. Even though I know the A's
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: are in Sacramento now, but they're probably close enough that
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: maybe they made a little bit of a return back home,
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: try to get some stuff done with home life there.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: But still they are technically returning home this time, so
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: it's a little bit of a distraction.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: When you return home from a road trip.
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: But they are facing Philadelphia, so it's not really a
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: team you're gonna overlook. I mean, Philadelphia has one of
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: the best records in the National League, so you're probably
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: not gonna overlook Philadelphia.
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: San Francisco did play the Lake.
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: Game as well last night, so Philadelphia has a little
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: bit of extra rest here kind of. But Philadelphia also
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: not really in a great spot because they had to
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: fly across the country. They're flying out from Philadelphia, so
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: they're crossing three time zones and now playing a Lake
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: game and a lot of times an East Coast team
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: and they have to play that first game out on
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: the West Coast, and it's a late game. It can
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: mess with their biological clock. They're playing like basically at
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: midnight their time, and it becomes a little bit of
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: an issue. So neither team really isn't that great of
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: a spot here in my opinion. But when you start
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: a road trip, you tend to be a little bit
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: more focused. That's Philadelphia here, Giants. You know, technically, returning
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: over from a road trip here, maybe a little bit
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: of a worse spot for the Giants here in Philadelphia
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: with a little bit of extra restedly, so I am
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: kind of leaning towards Philadelphia in this game. Philadelphia has
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: the worst bullpen though, so that's definitely something to keep
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: in mind. Although San Francisco I think used a pretty
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: good amount of their bullpen yesterday.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: Let me see, did they?
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: Maybe I'm wrong about that, let me see, I'm trying
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: to remember everything I saw. Yeah, yeah, San Francisco did
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: use some of their bullpen yesterday. With man bird Song,
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: I mean, he walked a lot of guys yesterday and
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: somehow just got away with it. Lopez actually had better
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk numbers, but got hit a little bit harder
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: and wound up not winning the game, which is kind
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: of surprising to me. But yeah, San Francisco they have
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: the better bullpend than Philadelphia significantly. But Philadelphia didn't use
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: any relief pitchers yesterday. Man Wheeler had a complete game
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: for them yesterday, So Philadelphia's bullpend rest scenario is a
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: lot better than San Francisco, who used a bunch of
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: their relief pitchers yesterday. So I think the bullpends actually
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: kind of even out a little bit. Sanchez is pitching
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: for the Phillies here and he's having a good season
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: two point six to eighty RA, one point one to
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: three Whitman with Wheeler kind of getting all the accolades,
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: Sanchez is kind of flying under the radar, and he's
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: been quite good. He's been a little bit better on
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: the road to two point four to two ROADYRA and
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: now he's pitching in a pitcher friendly park here too.
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: Sanchez has been excellent for a while. Man one point
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: eight five ERA and five starts in June. His team
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: has won four of his last six starts. He had
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: a thirty three to six strike out walk ratio in June,
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: has an a lot more than tour in runs than
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: any start going all the way back to late May.
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: Is one start in July, seven inning, one run, outing
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: against San Diego, five hits, five strikeouts, no walk. So
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: he's definitely in good form right now. And he's basically
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: stepping down in class to face a pretty bad San
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: Francisco offense, and he's done well against them in the
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: past fifty one at bats against a fourteen to four
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio, two thirty five average allowed in
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: six forty four oh ps. So Sanchez has the good
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: matchup numbers, and I think he is definitely the better
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: pitcher against Land and Roupe, who's kind of been all
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: over the place. His era looks good three point four
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: to eight, but a one point four to eight whip
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: is terrible. I mean, you absolutely cannot put you know,
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: one and a half guys on base per inning and
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: continue to get away with it. Although he has been
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: better at home at one point eight five home era,
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: he has not really been a great form recently again
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: because the walks have just been alarmingly high. Man even
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: though San Francisco, even though their offenses sucked, they've actually
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: won four of his last six starts and he's.
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 2: Only allowed more than.
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: More of the tour and runs twice in those last
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: six starts, and he had three shutout performances. But I
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: still don't trust him. Man in June three point two
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: oz era, Yeah, that's good. Eighteen to fourteen strike a
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: walk ratio that's not good, and he's not really inducing
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: that many ground balls either, So I don't know how
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: he's getting away with it that. I mean, part of
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: it might just be because San Francisco's park is pretty
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: pitcher friendly, but man, I mean that is a terrible
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio, and it continued in his last outing
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: four strikeouts, four walks. I don't think he's good man.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: He's in bad form right now. I think his era
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: is gonna get higher, so I don't like it. The
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: Phillies have seen him before. They have twenty one at
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: bats against him, a two eighty six average, eight ninety
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: nine ohps, eight to three strike out walk ratio. But
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: Roupe has not been good against Philly either. He actually
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: pitched against them this year way back in Eightpril and
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: he gave up four runs in five innings. Again too
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: many walks, three walks, six hits. I did have eight strikeouts,
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: which is pretty good, but his strikeout rate has also
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: kind of tailed off a bit as well, so I'm
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: not really I'm not ready to trust.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: Roupe at all.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: So I like Philadelphia in this game, and I was
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: considering making it a play, but the market is like,
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: don't do that. The market has sixty nine percent of
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: the tickets on Philadelphia and only fifty two percent of
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: the cash they're down for mine his one for minus
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: one twenty five. But I don't agree with the market
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: reading that one. I think San Francisco's major edge is
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: the bullpen, But again, I think the bullpen usage kind
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: of negates that a bit. Philadelphia has the better starting pitcher,
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: better matchup, better of the situation, and the better offense.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: So I'm leaning to Philadelphia in this game. Maybe part
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: of the reason why the professionals are taking San Francisco
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: is they're just thinking, well, I wouldn't lay a price
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: like this with Philadelphia. And yes, you do have to
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: worry again about the travel spot and having to play
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: a late game having traveled to the Pacific coast no
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: time to adjust to the time zone difference.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 2: That is a little bit of a concern there.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: So we'll stay off of that one, but that is
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: how I feel about that game. Still lean to Philadelphia
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: in that game. Once again, two plays that I gave
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: out are both full game unders Dodgers Brewers. I know
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: that seems counterintuitive going with, you know, an under game
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: in a game of two good offenses, but I like
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: to do it sometimes, especially when you have the ace
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: pitching for both staffs.
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: I like it.
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: And then Texas Anaheim you have, really you have kind
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: of the best pitcher pitching for both these teams today
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: as well. So under in that game as well. That's
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: gonna do it for me today, man, Happy Monday. Let's
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: kick off the week, right. I am learned to Toad.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: That's me on Twitter. You can find Better Off Debt everywhere.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: We're on YouTube if you're watching it here right now.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: I am up on all the audio platforms now, please,
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: you know, listen, subscribe, review, do everything, man, because the
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: audio is monetized at least. I'm on Instagram as well,
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: where I'm posting the same plays but doing it in
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: short form, and I think I just have to be
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: a little bit funnier with those videos. So I'm trying
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: to do that and that's what I'm doing there. You
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: can also find me at covered in Yuke, which is
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: my yuke channel where I'm now posting everything I post
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: on you on Twitter. Excuse me, I'm posting on the
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: YouTube as well. All my covers are going up there.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: And as I pointed out, I am starting a Patreon,
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: which is gonna be at learn to Toad. You can,
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: you know, do it just to throw me some support,
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: but you will get bonus stuff mostly in the YUK
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: sphere right now at the higher levels of the Patreon
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: I'm going to allow for requesting covers of me and
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: I'll try to do them, but not guaranteeing. And I'm
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: going to have a Spotify feed. I think with all
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be like a podcast, but it's gonna be
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: all the yuke stuff because I don't think I can
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: really have myself as an artist up on Spotify, but
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: I'm thinking of doing it that way instead. So that's
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: the thought at least right now. And you guys can
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: let me know what you think about that as well,
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: if that makes sense, if you would be interested in
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: something like that, because I'm still trying to figure out
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: what I want to do for Patreon benefits, and on
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: the betting side, I don't know what I would offer
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: for bonus stuff there, if I would do some extra
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: streams or something, I'm not sure yet, but that's gonna
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: do it. Yeah, I mean, that's it for now, learn
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: to toe, of course. And once again, I'm not betting
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: these games right now, just so I'm trying to not
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: take as many risks right now as I'm trying to
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: get some consistent income. Although maybe once I free up
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: some of my money, maybe I should just go full
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: time with this a loa of course with the Beautiful Bill,
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: the Big Beautiful Bill, where man, it's gonna be, it's
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: gonna make it almost until Annibal to trying to make
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: money as a better So we'll see what happens with
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: that bullshit. I talked about that on Wednesdays better off Dead,
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: I think, so you can go find that I was
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: at the end of the show on Wednesday. Anyway, Thanks
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: for hanging out, guys. That's gonna do it up for today.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: Let's have a good one today. Kick off the week
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: right and peace out.