Latest / ACLED Audio / REPORT: Settler violence in the West Bank hits record levels as farming outposts expand

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REPORT: Settler violence in the West Bank hits record levels as farming outposts expand · ACLED Audio

• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: Settler violence in the West Bank hits record levels as farming outposts expand.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: Executive Summary.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: Outposts and farming outposts have expanded quickly in the West Bank as a result of the Israeli government's pro-settler policies.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: This has resulted in violence spreading into more rural areas.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_00: Settlers have also become more heavily armed and more involved in local security structures.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: At the same time, weak law enforcement has kept accountability low, while international pressure has had a limited effect.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: Settler violence has concentrated around new outposts and farming areas established near rural Palestinian communities of Area C and B across the West Bank, mainly in the governorates of Hebron, Ramallah and Albire, Nablus and Janin.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: Ahead of Israel's elections, scheduled for October, settler violence is likely to increase.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: If the current coalition stays in power, violence is likely to increase in rural communities located near areas C and B and spread further as outposts continue to expand.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: Even under a different administration's policies, farm outposts, armed local security structures, and a settler presence built up under the current Netanyahu-led government would be difficult to reverse.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: Effective law enforcement and sustained international pressure could slow the trend, but a major decline in violence is unlikely.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: Settler violence has reached record levels under Israel's current government.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: Since the current Netanyahu-led Israeli government took office on December 29, 2022, settler violence against Palestinians and their property has increased sharply.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: This increase has most notably accelerated since 2025.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: Refer to the chart in the report for details.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: And 2026 is already the most violent year since ACLED began monitoring the West Bank in 2016.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: While daily friction between settlers and Palestinians continues to drive mob violence, other forms of violence have also risen sharply, including attacks, land seizure, looting, and property destruction.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_00: Armed settler violence, previously a rare form of violence, has become more frequent and deadly since 2023.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: Refer to the table in the report for details.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: ACLED records 158 incidents involving settlers firing weapons in 2023, compared with 48 in 2022.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: During nearly eight months of 2026, the number had already reached 203, the highest level recorded since 2016.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: These incidents include direct shooting attacks and cases in which settlers have opened fire during mob violence clashes.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: Among them have been cases in which soldiers have joined settlers in shooting or participating in violence.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: This trend has been exacerbated by the greater integration of armed settlers into local security structures in settlements and outposts.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: Since the October 7, 2023 attack, Israel's multifront war has stretched the Israel Defense Forces attention and manpower, which has increased reliance on local defense arrangements.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: By December 2025, at least 500 settler soldiers from Regional Defense Units, or Hagmar, were still deployed to farm outposts.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, Israel's institutions have enabled settler violence by not holding violent settlers accountable.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_00: Since 2005, nearly 94% of investigation files against settlers have been closed without indictment, while only 3% have led to a conviction.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: The growth of farm outposts drives the surge in violence.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_00: The surge in settler violence has been driven by the rapid expansion of farm outposts.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: PeaceNow data show that settlers established 259 new outposts between 2023 and August 1, 2026, including 186 farming outposts.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_00: The same data also show that in nearly seven months of 2026, settlers have created 57 farm outposts, accounting for about 31% of all farm outposts established since January 2023.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: Refer to the table in the report for details.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: While most outpost expansion has occurred in area C, the area in the West Bank under full Israeli security and administrative control, settlers have established at least 20 farm outposts since 2024 in Area B, which is under Israeli security control and the Palestinian Authorities, PA, administrative control, including 12 in the first seven months of 2026.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: Farming outposts are particularly important because a small number of settlers can establish a presence over large areas of surrounding land.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_00: Settlers now control more than 1.1 million dunums, or around 1,100 kilometers in area C, roughly one-third of the area.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: New outposts have brought settlers closer to Palestinian villages and communities, including in areas A and B, where the PA has administrative control, which has created new flashpoints.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: In several communities that experienced no settler violence between 2016 and 2022, repeated incidents of settler violence have taken place after new outposts were established nearby.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: For example, 35 incidents of settler violence have taken place in Marj Sia in Ramallah and Albira Governate in 2026 after several new outposts were established nearby.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: Thus far, in 2026, 49% of settler violence events have occurred within 3 km of a new farming outpost established this year.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: Between 2023 and 2026, incidents of settler violence within 3 km of new farming outposts have increased more than fourfold.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: This trend suggests that settler violence has not spread evenly across the West Bank, but has become more concentrated around rural communities.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_00: Refer to the chart in the report for details.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: Violence carried out by settlers has included attacks on farmers and herders, destruction of olive trees and crops, land seizure, settlers grazing livestock on Palestinian land, and the looting of crops and livestock.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: Settler violence that occurs alongside the expansion of farming outposts has therefore become a wider tool of economic pressure on Palestinians in rural areas.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_00: Losing access to land has weakened livelihoods, increased the risk of displacement, and pushed communities to leave.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: ACLED data show that Palestinian communities and groups of shepherds have been displaced in eight locations between January and September 11, 2026, including the Bedouin community in Al-Auzha near Jericho, and farming communities in the Tubas governate, such as Kirbet Yarza.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_00: Geographically, violence has spread into more locations while remaining concentrated in rural communities.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_00: In the first eight months of 2026, settler violence affected 397 locations across the West Bank, 75% more than in 2022.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_00: The governates of Hebron, Ramallah, and Albira, and Nablus are the most affected by settler violence.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: Refer to the maps in the report for details.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_00: These three governants account for about 74% of the increase in the number of affected locations between 2025 and 2026.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_00: They have large Palestinian populations and many villages located in areas A and B, close to area C, where most outpost expansion has taken place.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_00: The sharpest increase has taken place in the Governor of Janine, where the number of affected locations have doubled from 12 in 2025 to 24 between January and September 11, 2026.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: Outlook.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_00: Settler violence is likely to grow and spread further even after the elections.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: Settler violence is likely to grow in the next three months as Israel's government continues to prioritize settlement and outpost expansion in the West Bank.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_00: Violence will likely concentrate around new outposts and farming areas that are likely to continue expanding in rural communities of Area C across the West Bank, mainly in the governance of Hebron, Ramallah, and Albire, Nablus, and Janine.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: The growing role of armed settlers in local security structures will keep the risk of shootings and fatalities high.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_00: The election of a settler-aligned Likud-led government such as Smotrich and Ben Gavir in the coming October elections is likely to continue these trends.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_00: A different government, led by opposition figures such as Ghadi Eisencot or Naftali Bennett, is likely to struggle to reverse the outposts and armed local structures that have been built since 2023.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_00: However, stronger law enforcement against settler violence and sustained international pressure could slow the trend, but a sharp drop in violence is unlikely in the next three months.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_00: Factors that will shape further expansion of settler violence.
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_00: Israeli government policy and political continuity.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: The Israeli government is likely to continue supporting settlement and outpost expansion to exert greater control over land as part of its ideology and security policy.
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_00: A change in government is unlikely to reverse developments since 2023, as its policy will likely rely on greater territorial control as part of Israel's security approach in the West Bank.
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_00: Arming of Settlers.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_00: The risk of shootings and fatalities in the West Bank will remain high as the Israeli government's reliance on armed settlers, civilian security squads, and Hagmar reservists is likely to continue.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_00: This reliance remains important as the IDF continues to operate on several fronts and faces a manpower shortage.
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_00: Conversely, if Israeli forces were to re-engage in the West Bank and exert tighter control on settlers' weapons, this is likely to reduce the risk of further violence.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_00: This scenario is unlikely, however.
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_00: Law enforcement.
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_00: Weak law enforcement and prosecution for creating illegal outposts and carrying out settler attacks have kept the cost of carrying out this violence low.
• 12:09
  SPEAKER_00: Stronger law enforcement could reduce violence and limit further expansion, but this would require a government with a different political mandate, which is unlikely to materialize.
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_00: See the annex in the report for more information.