Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Emergency Rate Cuts vs Tariff Chaos🚨Crypto Market Update🔥
Transcript
- 0:07Speaker 1: The FOMC is this week and we could be nearing
- 0:10Speaker 1: an emergency rate cut today. We'll break it down for
- 0:12Speaker 1: you and find out if that's going to happen. My
- 0:14Speaker 1: name is pel Bair. Welcome back into tech path. Let's
- 0:16Speaker 1: get into it today. I do want to think our sponsor,
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- 0:41Speaker 1: is is we're nearing the April fifteenth deadline. Did you
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- 1:00Speaker 1: funding reward to get started. Let's go into a couple
- 1:02Speaker 1: of things I want to lead off with here Sunday
- 1:05Speaker 1: night update, This is the futures are right across the
- 1:07Speaker 1: board despite no tariff headlines, even though there's a looming
- 1:11Speaker 1: tariff headline coming and it's offecially fed Interest.
- 1:14Speaker 2: Week, which we will be doing a live.
- 1:16Speaker 1: Stream for you guys today or this week. It's gonna
- 1:20Speaker 1: be on Wednesday, and we usually do it around mid afternoon,
- 1:22Speaker 1: so typically it's around two thirty when Chair Powell will
- 1:25Speaker 1: go in and do his remarks and that's typically what
- 1:28Speaker 1: we will put on for the live stream, So make
- 1:30Speaker 1: sure and tune in on that. If you're not subscribed
- 1:33Speaker 1: to the channel right now, do that and hit that
- 1:35Speaker 1: little bell.
- 1:36Speaker 2: It'll give you a notification when we go live.
- 1:38Speaker 1: And those are usually big announcements, and if you're looking
- 1:41Speaker 1: at trading the market, there could be some things.
- 1:43Speaker 2: There that will be revealed.
- 1:46Speaker 1: The key things to watch here on this week, of course,
- 1:49Speaker 1: is whether or not we get the interest rate decision.
- 1:51Speaker 1: Right now, everybody's saying we're gonna hold rates. However, the
- 1:55Speaker 1: pressure is on and I'll show you some stuff here
- 1:57Speaker 1: in a second in the show today that may make
- 2:00Speaker 1: you think that maybe an emergency rate cut might be
- 2:02Speaker 1: an order and the Fed dot plot is the other
- 2:04Speaker 1: one you're possibly the bullish side of it could be
- 2:07Speaker 1: three cuts.
- 2:08Speaker 2: So if we get any indication that.
- 2:10Speaker 1: A three cut could happen, that would be bullish, even
- 2:13Speaker 1: if we had a flat no rate change on this meeting.
- 2:16Speaker 1: And then of course, uh if he hints at stopping
- 2:20Speaker 1: QT uh. And when you look at quantitative tightening in general,
- 2:24Speaker 1: the idea is is the pressure that it puts on
- 2:26Speaker 1: businesses in the United States that slows down the economy,
- 2:30Speaker 1: which also slows down jobs. That's the thing that we're
- 2:34Speaker 1: dealing with. The risk that you have is when you
- 2:37Speaker 1: have falling inflation but rising unemployment. That's called stagflation. And
- 2:43Speaker 1: that's the thing that he is trying to do a
- 2:45Speaker 1: tight rope on right now.
- 2:47Speaker 2: For sure.
- 2:48Speaker 1: Other things that you got to look at is where
- 2:51Speaker 1: leaders of businesses fall. And let me kind of explain
- 2:54Speaker 1: this because right now there's a lot of warnings out there, Okay,
- 2:58Speaker 1: some percolated from airline retailers, Dollar General, Walmart about underwhelming
- 3:04Speaker 1: consumer demand. And this is the concern that I think
- 3:06Speaker 1: Trump will address very quickly. One of the biggest sectors
- 3:09Speaker 1: out there that Trump will pay attention to is the
- 3:12Speaker 1: restaurant industry. Terrifs will have and are having a massive
- 3:17Speaker 1: impact on the restaurant industry. I talk with them all
- 3:19Speaker 1: the time, and I was talking with a couple of
- 3:21Speaker 1: associations just last week. The amount of turmoil that it
- 3:25Speaker 1: has caused at a lot of the state level associations is
- 3:28Speaker 1: pretty significant, and at the national level, it's likely that
- 3:32Speaker 1: we could see some lobby power starting to put some
- 3:35Speaker 1: pressure on President Trump to get going. Because nobody's predicting this,
- 3:39Speaker 1: but we could see emergency rate cuts maybe before the
- 3:42Speaker 1: main meeting, and I think that's what everybody's looking at
- 3:44Speaker 1: right now. So a couple of things to look at here.
- 3:50Speaker 1: Whether or not we get the number of rate cuts,
- 3:52Speaker 1: the key here is going to be what is going
- 3:54Speaker 1: to trigger them. Well, remember that COVID nineteen, the pandemic.
- 3:58Speaker 1: That's really the one that triggered emergency rate cuts that
- 4:02Speaker 1: we saw, which was just radical in comparison. You know,
- 4:06Speaker 1: we saw one hundred basis points almost a point and
- 4:08Speaker 1: a half that fell off. Market was trying to be
- 4:10Speaker 1: get stimulated. We saw that kind of impact if you
- 4:13Speaker 1: look at some of the charts right now. Because this
- 4:15Speaker 1: is what's happening today, I'll kind of zoom in on
- 4:17Speaker 1: this for you US stocks. Now, I have gone seventeen
- 4:19Speaker 1: days without consecutive gains and this is the second large
- 4:23Speaker 1: stretch since COVID, and you'll notice that the visual through
- 4:28Speaker 1: Wednesday when it was fifteen days. We're continuing to see
- 4:32Speaker 1: this downward trend on gains and if this continues to hold,
- 4:37Speaker 1: this is going to put again more pressure on President Trump,
- 4:40Speaker 1: and so far he's been talking about holding the line
- 4:43Speaker 1: on these rate cuts. Stagflation, though, is at risk now,
- 4:47Speaker 1: so this potentially could happen if we see a slowing economy,
- 4:52Speaker 1: which obviously will affect inflation very quickly, but that slowing
- 4:55Speaker 1: economy will also affect these job numbers, and that's the concern.
- 4:59Speaker 1: That's probably the kind of the death cross for what
- 5:03Speaker 1: could happen with the Federal Reserve, which could put them
- 5:05Speaker 1: in a tricky spot. And I agree with this one.
- 5:08Speaker 1: If you look at just true inflation, a little bit
- 5:11Speaker 1: of a spike, this is a concern that we see
- 5:14Speaker 1: right now. Of course, right now the Fed decision. If
- 5:17Speaker 1: you look at polymarket on March nineteenth, it looks like
- 5:19Speaker 1: it's going to be a no change rate. But the
- 5:22Speaker 1: key here is whether or not Powell gets a last
- 5:27Speaker 1: minute push from market indicators coming in. So I want
- 5:31Speaker 1: to go to a couple of clips here. This first
- 5:33Speaker 1: clip is going to get into Trump's position on tariffs.
- 5:36Speaker 2: Currently. Take a look.
- 5:38Speaker 3: Any chances that you will bend on the tires on
- 5:42Speaker 3: April second?
- 5:43Speaker 2: Yeah, you are not.
- 5:44Speaker 4: Going to change now. I'm not going to bend at all.
- 5:48Speaker 2: We're not going to bend.
- 5:48Speaker 5: And to be honest with you, Canada only works as a.
- 5:51Speaker 2: State, it doesn't. We don't need anything they have. There's
- 5:54Speaker 2: not a thing that we need. Now, there'll be a
- 5:56Speaker 2: little disruption, but it won't be very long, all right.
- 6:00Speaker 1: So you can see Trump is definitely holding the line
- 6:03Speaker 1: right here. Now could that be a poker face? Many
- 6:06Speaker 1: people think that this could end before April second, which
- 6:09Speaker 1: is the deadline when all these reciprocal tariffs will go
- 6:12Speaker 1: into effect, and Trump stating that he's not going to
- 6:15Speaker 1: move on this. CNBC Joe Scarborough has some interesting remarks
- 6:20Speaker 1: on this.
- 6:20Speaker 5: Take a look, I'm going to tell you how to
- 6:22Speaker 5: do it. Do you want to know the proper way
- 6:24Speaker 5: to do it?
- 6:24Speaker 3: Now?
- 6:24Speaker 5: You open to suggestions from you?
- 6:26Speaker 3: All these I think the President has a pretty good
- 6:28Speaker 3: idea what he's going to do, go for it too.
- 6:30Speaker 5: If we can determine that it's going to be counterproductive
- 6:33Speaker 5: to some of our great companies here based on something
- 6:37Speaker 5: is not related at all, then don't do it.
- 6:39Speaker 2: Do all the reciprocal stuff. Because here's a chart.
- 6:42Speaker 3: Yeah, look at that.
- 6:44Speaker 2: On the light blue.
- 6:45Speaker 5: Are things that it basically accomplished the same thing that
- 6:48Speaker 5: aren't a facto tariffs.
- 6:49Speaker 3: You know, we've got a hard deadline that's coming up.
- 6:51Speaker 3: That's going to, I think be great news for markets.
- 6:53Speaker 3: The amount of tariff revenue that we've already collected adds
- 6:57Speaker 3: up to about a trillion dollars over ten years, A
- 6:59Speaker 3: trillion dollars that we could use to say, give everybody
- 7:02Speaker 3: a tax cut or reduce the deficit. When people are
- 7:05Speaker 3: naysayers and get all upset about oh market, this market,
- 7:08Speaker 3: that tax hikes. Plan is to use the tariff revenue
- 7:11Speaker 3: to balance the budget to reduce taxes.
- 7:14Speaker 2: That's from us. That's okay, Kevin.
- 7:17Speaker 4: This is a really important point. I don't know if
- 7:19Speaker 4: you just heard and Yard Denny was with us, he's
- 7:22Speaker 4: actually taking his But if the administration is looking at
- 7:25Speaker 4: this as a way of raising revenue, as you just
- 7:28Speaker 4: laid out to replace personal and corporate taxes. He said
- 7:33Speaker 4: that that that he does not agree with at all,
- 7:35Speaker 4: and that's going to be something for not just the markets,
- 7:38Speaker 4: but for businesses to try and contend with.
- 7:40Speaker 6: Right.
- 7:40Speaker 3: President Trump is very flexible, he said that over and over,
- 7:43Speaker 3: and the countries that don't are gonna have to pay
- 7:45Speaker 3: the tariffs. Right, That's the way it.
- 7:47Speaker 5: Is bringing a lot of the manufacturing back.
- 7:50Speaker 2: Kid, that just that will be back for years.
- 7:53Speaker 3: You know, I thought that too, Joe, But then I
- 7:54Speaker 3: was fiddling with the data as we're getting ready to
- 7:56Speaker 3: meet with the President and Vice president last week.
- 7:58Speaker 5: The market seems to go up on days when you know,
- 8:01Speaker 5: we haven't heard new utterances about about terraffs.
- 8:05Speaker 3: I think there should be there should be clarity, absolute clarity.
- 8:08Speaker 3: The pressure we have here. Then we're going to have
- 8:10Speaker 3: reciping it now.
- 8:12Speaker 1: All right, So you can kind of see CBC is
- 8:15Speaker 1: a little bit on edge there. I think a lot
- 8:17Speaker 1: of people And you have to remember, guys, this has
- 8:19Speaker 1: been and will have the most impact on really the
- 8:24Speaker 1: wealthiest Americans. You know, if you look at the amount
- 8:27Speaker 1: of the market contraction that we've seen, and it's likely
- 8:32Speaker 1: if he does hold through to these tariffs, that we
- 8:34Speaker 1: will see more pain if we continue to see that.
- 8:36Speaker 1: I mean, we can see trillions continue to come off
- 8:39Speaker 1: of the market cap of the S and P five hundred,
- 8:42Speaker 1: and that in itself will continue to put some pressure
- 8:44Speaker 1: I think on the wealthiest Americans out there. The real
- 8:47Speaker 1: question is is how does Trump spin this to his
- 8:50Speaker 1: base as a positive thing, and how does Trump hold
- 8:53Speaker 1: the line here and still keep corporate America in check,
- 8:58Speaker 1: because that is going to be a factor playing onto
- 9:00Speaker 1: this Now. Tom Lee said, hey, we think this resolution
- 9:04Speaker 1: might happen. Here's what he had to say.
- 9:06Speaker 5: But history says that markets will recover, right, Yes.
- 9:13Speaker 6: Marked They've recovered every time. One thing we have to
- 9:17Speaker 6: keep in mind is when markets fall this quickly from
- 9:19Speaker 6: a fifty two week high. I mean, just remember less
- 9:23Speaker 6: than a month ago we were at all time highs.
- 9:26Speaker 2: That is a.
- 9:26Speaker 6: Market pricing in a crisis. You know, I'd say almost
- 9:31Speaker 6: fifty percent pricing in a recession. And we're assuming there's
- 9:35Speaker 6: no FED put now that FED isn't a position to
- 9:37Speaker 6: cut rates, that really should mitigate the downside. And I
- 9:42Speaker 6: do think two other things that investors have to keep
- 9:44Speaker 6: in mind because many people just want to get out
- 9:46Speaker 6: until April second is number one. I do think there's
- 9:50Speaker 6: a very high probability that a tariff solution happens before
- 9:55Speaker 6: the next three weeks happens. And it's simple to see
- 9:58Speaker 6: because China, Europe, Canada, Mexico since April eighteenth, all of
- 10:03Speaker 6: those countries have outperformed the US. I don't think that
- 10:07Speaker 6: markets are that blind to say if Canada, Mexico are
- 10:09Speaker 6: about to have a recession, they should outperform the US.
- 10:12Speaker 6: And I think the second thing people should keep in
- 10:14Speaker 6: mind is that when you have a global crisis brewing,
- 10:18Speaker 6: and we highlighted like the nineteen sixty two Cuban missile crisis,
- 10:22Speaker 6: that was a twelve day crisis, but the market's bottomed
- 10:24Speaker 6: seven days into the crisis. Five days before that crisis ended,
- 10:29Speaker 6: the market was already recovered two thirds of the losses.
- 10:33Speaker 1: All right, So there's a couple of things you have
- 10:35Speaker 1: to look at right now. First of all, I would
- 10:38Speaker 1: say that Tom Lee might be talking his book a
- 10:40Speaker 1: little bit. He was talking about as a lot of
- 10:42Speaker 1: people are looking at a strategy of exiting the market
- 10:45Speaker 1: through the April second decision, that would affect him because
- 10:49Speaker 1: obviously the amount of holdings that they have assets under management.
- 10:53Speaker 1: But in addition, you look at just the situation currently
- 10:57Speaker 1: with Trump. He has been a tariff through and through.
- 11:00Speaker 1: He did it before in his previous administration. I think
- 11:04Speaker 1: he's going to hold the line here and I think
- 11:06Speaker 1: he's going to implement. And it's right now, you know,
- 11:10Speaker 1: a game of chicken, and I think that Trump is going.
- 11:12Speaker 2: To do it.
- 11:14Speaker 1: If he does it, expect to see some mediate market
- 11:18Speaker 1: I think pain that we will see migrate its way
- 11:21Speaker 1: into crypto. The question is is how long will that happen?
- 11:24Speaker 1: Because when he does spend or have some sort of
- 11:27Speaker 1: influence saying yeah, I think I'm going to come out
- 11:29Speaker 1: of this or we got what we wanted the negotiation
- 11:31Speaker 1: is good. Now, that's when you're going to see this happen.
- 11:35Speaker 1: And that is the US money supply. Money supply is accelerating.
- 11:38Speaker 1: And back to Tom Lee's point right here, this is
- 11:40Speaker 1: the eleventh straight month of money supply expansions. So this
- 11:45Speaker 1: is the amount of dollars in circulations reached twenty one
- 11:47Speaker 1: plus six trillion and just sixteen billion below it's all
- 11:52Speaker 1: time which was in April twenty twenty two, and that
- 11:54Speaker 1: we all know what that was. Everybody was courting cash,
- 11:57Speaker 1: concerned about what was happening. That's the last time. So
- 12:01Speaker 1: this acceleration, this is when you see markets in high
- 12:06Speaker 1: high growth sector. This of course, right there is a
- 12:08Speaker 1: good example. And this goes all the way back to
- 12:11Speaker 1: December of twenty two ish where we start to see
- 12:14Speaker 1: that market and then June of twenty three the least
- 12:17Speaker 1: amount of supply out there. So M two right now
- 12:20Speaker 1: starting to hit that increase. Could we be in this
- 12:23Speaker 1: area here or is this going to be a small
- 12:26Speaker 1: retrace and back into a growth market. I think that's
- 12:30Speaker 1: the biggest investor question that everybody's asking today. Other things
- 12:35Speaker 1: you got to look at right now. The market's biggest
- 12:37Speaker 1: risk in twenty twenty five right now is recession and
- 12:41Speaker 1: this thing they call the circular crypto economy. And let
- 12:43Speaker 1: me kind of explain this. They hit a couple of
- 12:45Speaker 1: good points here. If you look at defive for example,
- 12:47Speaker 1: point of finance is to finance something, right, but if
- 12:50Speaker 1: you only think you that DeFi finances is more DeFi
- 12:54Speaker 1: than that would be circular. This is coming from Brightman
- 12:57Speaker 1: and further in the article they say, well this is
- 12:59Speaker 1: stark contrast to stock market, which is built on revenue generation.
- 13:02Speaker 1: That's why we see all these performance numbers, making crypto
- 13:05Speaker 1: industries lack of grounding one of the main industry threats.
- 13:09Speaker 1: This again gets back into the scenario that we could
- 13:11Speaker 1: face here in crypto where they're not producing anything of
- 13:16Speaker 1: value in consideration, but profits I would say, are in
- 13:21Speaker 1: place because most of these chains are making money, so
- 13:24Speaker 1: that of course stife or not stifles, but increases the
- 13:27Speaker 1: value of these tokens. Then you look at some of
- 13:30Speaker 1: the moves that Wall Street are making, and this of
- 13:32Speaker 1: course is Kathy would twenty one shares is going to
- 13:35Speaker 1: be shutting down Bitcoin an ethereum futures ETF.
- 13:38Speaker 2: So this is a big factor.
- 13:39Speaker 1: Okay, maybe the throwing in the towel ibit as one
- 13:42Speaker 1: that's blackrock, I get that. But if you start to
- 13:44Speaker 1: look at some of the moves right here that Kathy
- 13:46Speaker 1: is making, this of course is the combined holdings of Arcs,
- 13:51Speaker 1: all of Arcs ETFs and their Bitcoin holding company, which
- 13:54Speaker 1: of course has recently started to slide, so we've started
- 13:57Speaker 1: to see a little bit of a sell off here
- 13:59Speaker 1: when it comes to bitcoin.
- 14:00Speaker 2: For Kathy Wood. Then if you look over here.
- 14:04Speaker 1: What's happening with something like a robin Hood stock. This
- 14:08Speaker 1: is where they're starting to really to double down on this. Now,
- 14:10Speaker 1: there's many reasons why we think Robinhood is going to
- 14:13Speaker 1: be another you know, company that's in the right place
- 14:15Speaker 1: at the right time when this market takes off. Because
- 14:19Speaker 1: when it does, it's going to open up an opportunity
- 14:21Speaker 1: maybe for a lot more investors, retail investors to come in,
- 14:24Speaker 1: and that's going to be.
- 14:25Speaker 2: The place they'll do it.
- 14:27Speaker 1: Here's Kobe Easy talking about this. Robin Hood stock obviously
- 14:30Speaker 1: saw a little bit of a jump right there. You
- 14:32Speaker 1: saw it five percent after announcing against new Prediction Markets
- 14:35Speaker 1: Hub with Calshi so prediction markets coming to robin Hood.
- 14:39Speaker 1: This all beneficial Robinhood doing a lot of other things
- 14:42Speaker 1: out there. One of the biggest ones is this two
- 14:44Speaker 1: percent account baign bonus transfer. This is two percent on
- 14:48Speaker 1: no limit transfers from other you know, exchanges and other
- 14:53Speaker 1: brokerage accounts. So this is a pretty big deal if
- 14:56Speaker 1: you start to see this playing in because this is
- 14:59Speaker 1: where robin Hoo is really trying to gain a lot
- 15:01Speaker 1: of gold users. That's their premium account, which I think
- 15:04Speaker 1: is five bucks a month.
- 15:06Speaker 2: Yeah, there's some benefits to it.
- 15:07Speaker 1: But that's their leverage of being able to say this
- 15:10Speaker 1: sour're growing gold account users. Much like you know if
- 15:13Speaker 1: you look at Netflix trying to gain subscribers. Well, that's
- 15:16Speaker 1: what Robin hood is going after. So they can market
- 15:18Speaker 1: to that, and then of course you look at some
- 15:21Speaker 1: other factors because she hasn't been Kathy Wood hasn't really
- 15:24Speaker 1: repositioned inter your stockholdings when it comes to Tesla. However,
- 15:29Speaker 1: she is also going in on an alternative company which
- 15:32Speaker 1: is called BYD. BYD is a Chinese car manufacturer, electric
- 15:35Speaker 1: car manufacturer. They do a lot of other things, including
- 15:38Speaker 1: a lot of autonomous vehicles, and this position is starting
- 15:42Speaker 1: to grow. So now it's number eighteen in RQ, which
- 15:46Speaker 1: is kind of their innovation fund. So just interesting moves
- 15:50Speaker 1: considering the Chinese aren't promoted or putting those cars in
- 15:53Speaker 1: the US yet, or maybe is there something that could
- 15:56Speaker 1: be brewing that could be coming for that again that
- 15:59Speaker 1: would kind to change Trump's I think relationship with Elon
- 16:03Speaker 1: if something like that were happening, because I would say
- 16:05Speaker 1: BID is one of the biggest competitors in China for Tesla. Overall,
- 16:10Speaker 1: the other thing that starts to shake you a little bit?
- 16:12Speaker 2: Is this right here?
- 16:13Speaker 1: Standard Chartered revisited their year in twenty twenty five price
- 16:17Speaker 1: target for ETH guys. They went from ten thousand to
- 16:21Speaker 1: four thousand. So first is how were you that wrong?
- 16:26Speaker 1: And if you were that wrong, then is Standard charter
- 16:29Speaker 1: even wrong? Now that's a question mark everybody's asking about
- 16:33Speaker 1: ETH because of Eth's slowness in the market and has
- 16:37Speaker 1: continued to hold.
- 16:37Speaker 2: Now.
- 16:38Speaker 1: Granted, sure EITH has kind of been hovering around that
- 16:41Speaker 1: you know, eighteen hundred to two thousand range, but it
- 16:43Speaker 1: is definitely not the token that it was in the
- 16:46Speaker 1: previous bull run. Michael Satter's strategy also has started to
- 16:50Speaker 1: slow down. This is making he made his smallest bitcoin
- 16:52Speaker 1: purchase ever on record. Many people look to this and say, Okay,
- 16:57Speaker 1: maybe this is the alternative where we do see so
- 17:00Speaker 1: much pressure on the economy and on what's happening right
- 17:04Speaker 1: now due to these terriff and potential issues that could
- 17:08Speaker 1: we see the rate.
- 17:09Speaker 2: Cut actually occur.
- 17:11Speaker 1: Wednesday is going to be a big day, So make
- 17:13Speaker 1: sure in tune in for that guys. You do not
- 17:15Speaker 1: want to miss it if you're not subscribed to it
- 17:17Speaker 1: now and get in on that little bell right there,
- 17:19Speaker 1: because that will give you the notification when we go
- 17:20Speaker 1: live on Wednesday. We'll do that live stream for you
- 17:24Speaker 1: and I'll give you my analysis after that. Make sure
- 17:26Speaker 1: and jump into our Diamond circle. And if you want
- 17:29Speaker 1: to talk with me directly, you can do so in
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