Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - ⚠️Final Warning: [WATCH NOW] IF You Own Tesla, Palantir, Nvidia, Amd, SoFi + Stock Market News 15 May 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - ⚠️Final Warning: [WATCH NOW] IF You Own Tesla, Palantir, Nvidia, Amd, SoFi + Stock Market News 15 May 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this morning opening live stream from our new office.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: It is floating and if you're wondering why I was a little bit late, I'll show you just what it looks like, so you won't be too worried about me.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: I just took a little video here on my phone so you can see what it looks like.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: We're off the beautiful coast of the south of France, off Cannes, in a little floating studio.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Clearly this is what it's meant to be for and I was running a little bit late from lunch on the beach, hence my slight delay here.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: But we actually have a tremendously exciting market set up today and I wanted to make sure I had the chance to walk you through that before enjoying the rest of my day here, guys.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: So the view is pretty nice here, but literally the last time we had this setup that we're in right now, the market went up 47% here, and if you want to understand that and I'll put the video away then stick around.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: I'll also show you why somebody's losing a lot of money out there, why that's good news for you and me, and why semiconductor chips are back, and I know some of you people in the comments have been saying, felix, you should have bought the dip and all of that.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Beautiful in hindsight, isn't it?
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: It's kind of interesting how everybody knew that there would be a US-China trade deal.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Pause, everybody's an expert on that one right now.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: And we don't work like that right.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: So we don't act on actually politics and we don't work like that right.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: So we don't act on actually politics.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: We don't try to predict and preempt these major changes.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: We just work on what the market gives us in terms of information and then we make the best decisions on that basis, and that's how we make money.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: That's how we don't lose money.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: That's really what this is all about, and I also want to walk you through the secret bull market trigger here, because I think it's going to make us a lot of money.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: So anybody who's going to find that useful, write useful in the chat down below and I know that you're listening here with Personal Chef and Butler, of course.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Yes, eva's yacht no, not quite.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: That's a reference to.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: I'm staying in the same hotel as Eva Longoria and I've run into her, I think three or four times so far.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Last was yesterday morning.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: I was going to the gym and basically the way you find her is that there is a film crew around with about 30 people, massive screens and lights, and then you go.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Do you mind if I just go through and go to the gym?
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: And then you step on her?
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: She's tiny but she's lovely, very, very, very friendly and polite.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: So Eva is all right.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Okay, useful.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: I'm glad that's useful to you guys.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: And does Winston not like boats?
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Winston does like boats, although he prefers the water, which makes a lot of sense.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: He's a golden retriever after all.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: So let me put this on the screen here for you, and I'm working on a laptop, as you can probably see.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: If you want to see my actual office setup here, it's this laptop extending screen and then a wireless mic, and that's pretty much all you need.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: And it's cool, isn't it?
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Thanks to Starlink, thank you, elon, for the Wi-Fi.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: The man does do some useful things, for sure.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: So what are we seeing right now is that we had what we call a death cross down right, and that's where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, and it's a terrible, terrible market sign.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: But it also works the other way and it's called I don't know what.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Is it called the Jesus cross or something?
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: And the last time we saw that happening was here in early 2023.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: And I'm swaying slightly, I hope that's OK with you and since then we had a beautiful run up of 47 percent.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: So you have to also look at the positive signals and right now we're getting some tremendously positive signals.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: And, yes, I've come from a place where I was bearish and I will change my opinion on that every other day if needed, every day if needed, if the facts change.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: So I don't have these convictions.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: I don't think the economy is all going to be wonderful, all going to be terrible, or this president is going to be good or bad or whatnot.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: I just look at the data, and the data has changed.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: The data is saying the S&P looks very bullish and there are a few other things.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Oh, the S&P looks very bullish and there are a few other things.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: Oh, you can't see the screen.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: Sorry guys, sorry guys, I thought you were enjoying watching me that much, but there we go.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: But yeah, so you see, ec down here in early 2023 was the last time we crossed the yellow line, crossed the brown line.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: That's the 50 over the 200 day moving average, and you can look that up in Trade Vision as well if you wish.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: And then we ran up all the way to the top 47 rally, which is pretty sweet, right, 500 trading days, which is about two years, which is kind of where we are at right, and I'm glad the microphone is working, guys, yeah, it's a new one and it's pretty good.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: So thanks to the guys at road who make that.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: I don't take sponsorship, by the way.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: I never, ever do.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: I get offered stuff every single day and I was like we don't do sponsorship, we don't endorse anything on this channel, because why, right?
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: So let me walk you through a couple more huge positives and I want us to then look at the individual stocks, the, the palantirs, the nvidia's, the amds, like where the opportunities?
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: What, what might we want to be nibbling on today?
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: And he was late making money?
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Well, more like spending probably four grand on lunch, but same sort of thing really, when the money is making money at the same time.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: So we're seeing massive, massive short covering right now.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: So Wall Street hedge funds have been very, very short.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: And up here, that blue line, up there you can see Let me see if I can grab a pen that up there is the what is it?
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Third largest short covering in like four years.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: So this is huge.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of pain out there.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: So I think we should take a moment to Think about all the money lost by hedge fund guys and how terribly sorry we feel for them, because they're probably thinking maybe I'll sell the second boat or maybe I shouldn't order the fourth Lamborghini.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: So there's some real pain out there and I think we should sometimes forget about that the real pain that hedge fund guys might have out there.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: So you're there thinking, OK, does that mean everything is going to go up?
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: What am I going to buy?
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: No, everything just rarely goes up.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Sometimes everything goes up together.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: Last few days, pretty much everything in your portfolio has probably gone up right, and maybe the exception of gold, and then people think they're a genius.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: But you're just lucky and really all I'd want to say to you and if you only take one thing away from the session here today is that we got lucky right.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: So we had a horrible, horrible drawdown and then we got lucky because the market bounced back, because Trump did something right and well, put something off right.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: The tariff thing is postponed, it isn't solved, and if they hadn't done that, we would have gone down further south.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: So don't forget that it is luck that got most people back to zero.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: And I always say, like, cherish the days where you're making money, when the market isn't, because those are the days where you are really looking after your retirement plans and your financial freedom and your family, and that's really what matters.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: So it's easy to make money on a day like yesterday or the day before or whatever.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: Today looks a little bit more mixed, so, again, it's a little bit more challenging to make money, but you'll make money if you've got rules, if you've got discipline, and the rules are simple.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: They're the same rules that wall street has used for 50 years, and a lot of people don't want to know the rules, and that's okay.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: Uh, they just want to keep relying on luck.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: Well, good luck to you.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: I wish you all the best and one day, unfortunately, you're probably going to feel some pain that's so severe.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: You might come back to the rules.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: What do the rules teach you?
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: They teach you what to buy, when to buy it and when to sell it, which is really what the whole thing is about, right?
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: So if you want to get those rules, you can go to fredericksfrontsorg, get free links down below in the description and you can actually get that for free and you get access to it, takes you 15 minutes and it's going to be way better value than watching the rest of this video.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: Because I'm going to walk you through what's happening out there and, yeah, I think that's going to be really high value.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: But ultimately, you won't be able to execute on it if you don't have the fundamental rules.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: So if you were investing, or if you were even trading and you don't have written rules on your desk, well, you're going to have a tough time and, yeah, you might get lucky.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: Maybe we'll just continue on this bull run for a couple of weeks or a couple of months and you get lucky.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: But ultimately, the market's going to take it away from you again and I want to make sure that you come away from this keeping the money.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: So you want to keep the profits, the profits that you're now accumulating.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: You want to hold onto them, because that's what makes you, so that when the next opportunity is there, you actually have more money to buy it.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: So go to felixfrontalogcom and learn that, and anybody who's going to do that, put an F in the chat for free.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: And for those of you guys who've actually already watched it, just write in the chat what you got out of the masterclass, like was it useful?
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: Did you get value out of it?
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: Like, has it changed the way you look at money, and it'll encourage, encourage the other people who don't know what it's all about yet and might be thinking, well, what's it really about?
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: Is it worth my time?
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: And there are two and a half thousand people alive here.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: It might just encourage them to just take that little bit of action and get to a place where the money and the gains are safer, make better decisions and therefore you get to financial freedom and you can spend the day on a boat of the south of France here, which is what we're doing, and it's absolutely amazing weather.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: It really is.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to jumping in the water after this.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: So, what we've got here and loving all the Fs there in the chat guys watch the three times useful, amazing, huge value, help bigly, says Brent, loving that, protecting my investment.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: It's worth your time, very much worth it.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: So tens of thousands of you watched it and I see it.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: I see you guys coming back and back and back to it, which is amazing.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: The masterclass is so worth it.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: I watched it a few times as Renato there.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: So guys, literally leave the stream and go and watch it.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: Felixrentzorg, get free, you're going to get a lot more value out of that.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: But yeah, we're seeing massive horse buying in the market and that's also something to bear in mind, that this market isn't going up because everyone just woke up and felt bullish.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: It's just enough of us woke up to feel bullish and at the same time, all the hedge funds had shorted the market and even just a little jump up means that they get kicked out of their positions.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: And what do they?
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: How do they get kicked out of their positions?
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: And how do they get kicked out?
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Well, they have to buy the shares back and that drives the market up more, and then more people stop, losses get hit, and then more people stops, get hit, and then more people get margin calls and so on.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: So this cycle gets kicked off, whereby the buying forces buying, the buying forces more buying.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: So I love that's what's going on here.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: This is not necessarily a fundamental shift that big in how people perceive the market.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: It's just that people were very short and they're getting kicked pretty, pretty hard right Having the call today.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: Good luck to you, my friend, and ask all the difficult questions.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: So we're seeing huge here, really huge, huge, huge, huge buying the second biggest buying day in five years, says Goldman Sachs here, and just knowing that gives you a lot of insight.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: But what I actually want to talk to you about is opportunity.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: So I've been a semiconductor bear now for a couple of months, right, and you might now think, well, felix flip-flops and I do, yes, frequently, my friends, all the time, in fact, whenever the data changes, I flip-flop.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: So I don't think, oh, I love this company, or the CEO is very handsome, or the NVIDIA CEO writes on women's chests, therefore it must be a great business.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: No, I just think what is Wall Street thinking of the stock?
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: And how do I know that?
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: By looking at the stock chart, and I teach you that if you watch the masterclass.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: And right now, things have changed.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: So how have they changed?
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Well, a couple of things have happened and I want to walk you through that because it's super, super important and you can see here sales of semiconductor chips basically in billions of dollars.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: You can just see it's just going up in a straight line.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: So we have a couple of things that happened.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: We've had the Middle East deal, so the Middle East is heavily investing in AI American AI, right.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: So NVIDIA, amd, all these guys, they're all there.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: And at the same time Trump has rescinded.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: And this here the stupid policy of the Biden administration.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: That's a quote, don't stop me saying it.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: So the Biden administration was afraid of AI and they thought we need to kind of like cap this.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: So they throttled, in a sense, ai development.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: Know what's going to replace it?
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: There needs to be some regulation around AI.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: I think everybody agrees with that, otherwise there'll be robots chasing us off yachts, and we wouldn't want that now, would we?
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: But it's very, very bullish for semiconductor chips because it's going to just open up a lot more growth, a lot more innovation.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: So that's very important, that's happening.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Then we've got the Middle East stuff, and then, if you look at the actual market and that's what I always look at my first thing before I look at a stock we're open here in the market 10 minutes is look at the index, and the semiconductor index is what it's the SOX, s-o-x.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: It's pretty easy to remember.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: The one thing I hate I really hate SOX for some reason.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: Actually, I refuse to live in countries where you have to wear SOX.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: It's just inhumane, I feel.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: I do wear them occasionally, but very rarely.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: Now, apart from my sock phobia, what are we seeing?
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: We're seeing, and it's the purple line on the screen here.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: Can you see that one now?
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: Can you see that?
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: That's the 150-day moving average line.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: Generally speaking, you want to be above that and that just means we're in a positive bullish territory.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: So we caught that two days ago and we're still above that, even though we're pulling back a little bit.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: It's kind of irrelevant and it means we've come out of the.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: So we have this consolidation phase here.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: Right, let me see if I can get a pen.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: Can I get a pen?
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so we had this zigzaggy consolidation pen, that pen rather period that you will recognize if you watch the masterclass.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: And then we collapsed because of the whole China story.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: Right, because China is a large consumer of semiconductors for NVIDIA and so on, but also tied into the whole manufacturing space, and we didn't think that was good, and now we have recaptured that.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: So we're actually back in a bull market for semiconductors.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: So what do I then do when I see a sector that's bullish?
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: Well, I look at.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: Well, what are the best stocks in that sector.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: And, yes, you can look at margins and growth and ROI and all that stuff and that's all useful.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: But ultimately you want to look at the sector that the market is most bullish on because it's a voting machine, the market right.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: It's like we want to buy what everyone's buying because that's how we make money.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: And nvidia two days ago I put out a video on that blew through 150 day moving average line, gapped up and it's looking, to my opinion, very, very bullish right now, even though we could be down.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: We're down a percent, like not really a big deal.
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: After you know, we up, we went from 90 to 140.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: So we went up like 45% or something right.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: So being down a percentage point put into perspective.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: And then you have AMD and we just turn off the option stuff here and that did the opposite.
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: And that's why I would be cautious on AMD still, because you see that purple 150-day moving average line.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: We didn't cross it, did we?
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: We bounced off it and we went below it.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: So that's not good, that's not good.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: So these moving average lines when you're above them they act as support.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: When you're below them, especially once you bounced off them, they act as resistance.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: So I would still, if I had to buy a semiconductor stock today, it would be nvidia, and it makes sense because the chart tells you to plus.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: It's the market leader and hoping for I'm going to find the next NVIDIA is well, the next NVIDIA is probably NVIDIA.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: Right, unh, are we talking about them in a moment?
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's definitely not a buy story there, because, well, the UNH guys, we can jump into that very quickly if you want story there, because, well, the UNH guys, we can jump into that very quickly if you want.
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: And we look at a few more really, really, really bullish things in just a second here.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: Guys, now we've got 300 likes on this video.
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: We've got 3000 people watching.