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Transcript

Felix Prehn - The $300 Billion BUY Warning! + Stock Market News 27 August 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Felix, welcome to this pre-market live stream.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: We are finally live.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Youtube decided to change my stream key overnight, which is what got me stumped, so I have to consume some electrolytes to get me ready for the market open.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: And yes, the market is not looking particularly pleased with itself this morning, and there are about 300 billion reasons why that is the case.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: I want to walk you through that.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: I also want to walk you through everything else that matters today, because it's still a pretty big news day, show you how we can make money out of it, maybe give you one or two trade ideas or investment ideas and, of course, give you the opportunity to pummel me with questions.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: So put those in the chat after you've destroyed the like button lovingly, and I'm going to share my screen with you and walk you through it.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: So this is what's going on this week and this is why the market is down, and all we need now is a pen.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Pen is in place and, of course, the real big deal, and pretty much the only thing that actually matters this week, is NVIDIA on Wednesday, tomorrow.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: There are some other big ones CRM is kind of a big deal, hp, to an extent, footlocker if you're into that sort of thing.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: There is Dell on Thursday and Lululemon Wululemon, as a friend of mine says and yeah, that's kind of what's moving the market.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: So what's really going on here with this?
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Well, this is the backdrop right, the biggest earnings event of the year.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: That's got everybody sitting on the edge of their seat.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Hence this pre-market.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry to have to show this to you, but yes, it is mostly red.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: The only things going up are Coca-Cola and Visa card.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Pretty much Everything else is down, but moderately down, and bear that in mind, it's moderately down.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: It's not the end of the world.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: This is why I'm going to get straight into it.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: No dance around here.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: What am I showing you?
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: Well, let me get a little pen.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: So this is tradevisionio screenshot.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: And if I extend these blue lines here, what the heck am I doing?
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: What's he doing Sorcery?
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: This blue box that I've essentially drawn in here is the expected move, expected move post earnings, and it's essentially saying we're trading at 126, that we might go up.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: What's that?
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: Can anybody do maths around here?
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: $17, something like that, plus, is that right?
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: You know bankers can't do maths, we're not that smart.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: 143 minus 126, 17.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: Yay, I get a gold star, or minus $17.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: And that seems like a reasonable amount, but it's quite a lot 17 over 126, that's a 13% move.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: 13% move by the end of the week.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: So we're looking at plus or minus 13% and that's what?
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: 300, 400, 500 billion dollars, something like that of either money appearing or evaporating, and that's why this Wednesday's Nvidia earnings is such a big deal.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: This is a really, really big stock, and really big stocks like that don't usually move 13% on one quarterly earnings number.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Hp source bloody brits, hp source HPQ, my friend, and so therefore, it's not unreasonable to expect the market to feel a little bit iffy.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Let me show you a little bit more data.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: So, in trade vision again here, and I'll put a little thing out for you.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: If you want to sign up for a 30-day trial, do we track what we call smart money?
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: These are basically dark pool trades, institutional trades.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: These are the ones from yesterday, right 17 hours ago, 18 hours ago, and so on, and what do you see?
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Well, they're mostly red, and a lot of these are buying puts.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: A lot of these are people closing their trades.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: And why does that happen?
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Because people are buying insurance.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: I mean here 13 million US dollars.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: Someone spends on puts.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: You know that's a big one.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: That's a whale $6 million and so on.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: These are really big trades, so the market is just insuring themselves.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: They're protecting themselves against what could be horrible earnings.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: I think it'll probably be extraordinarily wonderful, but they don't want to be caught on the wrong side because they might lose hundreds of millions of dollars.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: And that's why you're seeing this retreat in the NVIDIA stock price, because people are either selling it or they're buying, put options on it and either way, they're kind of putting negative pressure on it and as NVIDIA goes down, the rest of the market goes down with it.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Does that make sense?
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: I hope that makes sense.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Smash the like button if that makes sense.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: So are we going to keep making money out of it?
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I know I've showed you this before and you might be thinking why isn't your portfolio moved?
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: We're up $25,000 on our 30K portfolio.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: We have another about $7,000 in unrealized gains, and do we count those?
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: Nope, but I haven't closed those trades out yet because they're still good.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: That's why we're sitting here.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: So we will be up over 100% Literally 100% up.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: It's not bad, right?
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: What is it?
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Is it August?
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Is it still August?
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: I think it's still August.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Do you want to learn how we do that?
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: I'm not promising those returns, it'd be silly but I promise to show you how we do it.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Come and join me literally tomorrow in 11 hours.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: We're going to have about two hours of unadulterated fun FelixRentzorg slash bootcamp and I'll show you our system, our structure, the whole thing, and we do some trades together and everything else.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: So come and join me over there.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Now, why am I so happy?
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Well, my kitten is feeling a little bit better.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: You know the one I was telling you about.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: It was, um, she got kidney kidney infection and sort of turned into kidney disease and anemia and all that kind of thing.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: But she's feeling a little bit better.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: She was sitting on the balcony just uh, purring away gently.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: So, um, I think it's quite good.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: As any of you have any of you done um stem cell treatments for yourself or a pet?
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: If?
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: If you have, let me know.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: I'd love to hear from you.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: That's a thing they do.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Now I digress from why you're probably here.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: Infotech, which is IT.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: This is the by how much?
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Let me draw a line here.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: Let me find a different color.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Let me draw a line here.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Let me find a different color.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: This green line here is if I could draw a straight line, come on, we can do it.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: We can do better than that, can't we?
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: We'll do a straight line.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: Even Microsoft can draw a straight line, don't you think?
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there we go.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: That's the.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Now it's disappeared.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: That's the zero line.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: So when you are below it, it means you are underweight, which is what my cat is right now.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: Poor little thing.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: It means the hedge funds, the big funds, own about 10% less IT stocks than the market right now.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: So, or yeah, then how much is in the index?
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: And why do I like that?
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: Does that not mean they're really bearish on tech?
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: No, not quite.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: It means that, yes, they're cautious.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: Maybe they've taken a lot of profits, but you know what it means.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: If NVIDIA comes in tomorrow and delivers the goods, what's going to happen?
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Tech stocks are going to rally.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: These guys are going to be like bloody hell.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: We're going to underperform the market.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: We can't underperform the market.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: We got to at least be the market.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: So what are they going to do?
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: They're going to start buying, and they have the potential to buy a very, very, very significant amount because they are so bloody short tech stocks.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: So I quite like setups like this where everybody is a bit cautious.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: So the contrarian in me is feeling a little bit more bullish on big tech right now.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: And if you read what Goldman Sachs put out a couple of days back with their buy rating, and what do they say?
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: They say the big criticism is the delay in Blackwell chips.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: Right, and I'm putting out a video on this today as well, by the way, coming out in a couple of hours.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: The editors are slaving away in our dark basement with somebody cracking the whip to get that video out.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: And it's a lovely place to work, promise kittens and all, and dark basements for the editors.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: They're saying while the delay in volume shipments of the Blackwell chip could drive some short-term volatility, we believe the magnitude of any impact to their data center business will depend on blah blah, blah, blah, blah, blah blah their willingness on the part of customers to take the H1H200 chips instead of the Blackwell product.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: So there is a rumor out there on Wall Street that NVIDIA might have intentionally delayed the Blackwell chip, which is the next generation of chip, because the demand for H200s is still so freaking great that they might as well fill that order book that stationable demand with H200s, bring in maybe a higher margin and then put out the Blackwell chip towards the end of the quarter, because all the suppliers are saying they're ramping up, they're seeing the demand, you know they're delivering to NVIDIA, so it doesn't look like NVIDIA is slowing down.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: I think they've just done a strategic little flip-flop there.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Blackwell isn't a game changer.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I also.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: I agree with that.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: I think it's obviously important, but it's I don't think I think they're going to have an amazing quarter.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: I think they're going to guide up more than people expect.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: I think they're going to over deliver.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Amazing quarter.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: I think they're going to guide up more than people expect.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: I think they're going to over-deliver.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: But am I putting money on it?
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: Not specifically, no, I'm going to wait and see what happens and then make money out of that.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Now here's another thing.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: This is something I thought for a few minutes whether I should show this to you, because part of me always thinks ah, you got to keep it simple and so on.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: And this is S&P three-month call skew, and I appreciate nobody knows what the heck that means, but this is a better way of putting it the right tail.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: So basically, this line goes up when people are bullish, okay, and when people are bearish, so cautious, it's down here.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: So people buy a lot of call options when they think the market's going to go up.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: And what have they just done?
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Well, they started to buy call options.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: So people like these institutions.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: They're starting to get fearful that they're missing out on the rally, and you can see why because they're pretty underexposed to tech here.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Right, let's see that from this chart.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: So there is, I think, a real possibility of essentially a tech squeeze up where everybody goes bloody hell, this thing's going to go higher.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: We can't miss it, just buy the bloody thing, and then that becomes a self-fulfilling kind of prophecy.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Greg, you're half Nvidia.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Wow, that's some exposure, my friend.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: I showed you this yesterday, but I still think it's a good thing to see.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: What are they overweight?
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: The institutions.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: You have stuff like Visa and Uber and MasterCard.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Unh health is doing really well and they're short CVX, intel, mrna and Tesla, and then in between there's a bunch of other stuff.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: But NVIDIA doesn't make either of these lists because the hedge funds have already taken profits.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: That could be a mistake in hindsight.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: A lot of them started selling in June, july.