Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / No Spoilers In NFL Week 12

Transcript

No Spoilers In NFL Week 12 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
0:13
Speaker 1: I am Shad Milman. We are the fastest growing sports
0:17
Speaker 1: betting podcast in the world. It's true. It's true. I'm
0:21
Speaker 1: watching it every single day. I am Chad Melman, like
0:23
Speaker 1: I said, and I am going to be joined by
0:25
Speaker 1: a professional better, Simon Hunter. In a moment, Holy fuck
0:30
Speaker 1: did the wheels come off this week? Like oh my god?
0:35
Speaker 1: As usual on Sunday morning, Simon and I were debating
0:38
Speaker 1: our picks, all of which were based on our conversation
0:41
Speaker 1: on this podcast, and he ended the chain and we'll
0:44
Speaker 1: get to the pics. And he ended the chain as
0:46
Speaker 1: he always does every single Sunday. I love our picks.
0:51
Speaker 1: We should We should be three and one or two
0:54
Speaker 1: and two at worst heading into Sunday night. And I replied,
0:59
Speaker 1: as aase, do you were a cliche signing? We did
1:04
Speaker 1: not go three and one, We did not go to
1:07
Speaker 1: in two. We went one and three in the one
1:11
Speaker 1: o'clock games. What the fuck happened? It's Chad, Thanks for
1:20
Speaker 1: the opening, buddy. Uh yeah, man, that was that was brutal.
1:25
Speaker 1: The worst part is I hated the vikings. You were
1:30
Speaker 1: all in you mean, executive decision and we're gonna talk
1:35
Speaker 1: about taking Dallas on the point spread, and like, I'm like, Chad,
1:39
Speaker 1: how how do you want to take Dallas and the
1:40
Speaker 1: point spread but want to take the Vikings in our pool. Listen,
1:44
Speaker 1: We're gonna listen. Listen, We're gonna get to that part
1:47
Speaker 1: of it. I don't want to preempt too much of
1:49
Speaker 1: like the next phase, because I want to leave a
1:52
Speaker 1: little bit like for people to look forward to when
1:55
Speaker 1: I get to the phrase that pays, because it is
1:57
Speaker 1: tied directly to that, when it is tied directly to
2:00
Speaker 1: that and to one other game, one other game. So
2:03
Speaker 1: a reminder that this season Professional Better Simon Hunter is
2:07
Speaker 1: joining the podcast every week and together we have entered
2:09
Speaker 1: the Draft Kings Pro Football pick Up National Championship. We
2:13
Speaker 1: will decide what picks we should put in every single
2:15
Speaker 1: week for the contest. If we win it, we win
2:17
Speaker 1: one million dollars five picks every single week before we
2:20
Speaker 1: get into the recap though, we are going to bring
2:22
Speaker 1: back the cash fuel phrase that pays contest. From now
2:26
Speaker 1: through the end of the season. We are giving a
2:28
Speaker 1: lucky listener one for every game we win each week,
2:33
Speaker 1: and we are giving an equal amount to the charity
2:36
Speaker 1: of the winner's choice to be eligible, go review the
2:39
Speaker 1: podcast using the phrase Simon says, don't get emotional, and
2:45
Speaker 1: if we like it, and Matt Mitchell, who keeps getting
2:47
Speaker 1: mentioned in the reviews and which he loves because he
2:49
Speaker 1: sends me all the reviews in which he's mentioned, if
2:52
Speaker 1: we like it and Matt Mitchell randomly chooses it producer extraordinaire,
2:56
Speaker 1: you will win the money. More reminder, everything we discussed,
3:01
Speaker 1: every pick we make, It's all available in the Action
3:04
Speaker 1: Network g app. Go follow at Simon Hunter. In the app,
3:07
Speaker 1: you will be able to see exactly what we lock
3:08
Speaker 1: in by Sunday, late Sunday morning, usually around noon. It's free,
3:12
Speaker 1: it's award winning. Go downloaded. You know I made our
3:16
Speaker 1: phrase the pays don't get emotional assignment just scared. No,
3:20
Speaker 1: it's not because I'm scared. No, don't make this about me.
3:23
Speaker 1: It's because we let emotions get in the way a
3:25
Speaker 1: very good decision making and it cost us number one
3:28
Speaker 1: number one. We both knew Denver was the right side.
3:32
Speaker 1: We noted, we noted it. We we were like all
3:35
Speaker 1: in on that. But we have been burned so much
3:38
Speaker 1: by Drew lock that we said we can't bet on
3:42
Speaker 1: them anymore. You beg me not to let you bet
3:46
Speaker 1: on them? You did? Is that correct? And I'm glad
3:49
Speaker 1: we didn't even though I know one I hate them.
3:53
Speaker 1: I'm glad we loved that one, even though I know
3:54
Speaker 1: we lost, but I couldn't do it again. Man, But dude,
3:57
Speaker 1: that was the total right side and like the drive,
4:00
Speaker 1: and I was just like, thank God, I don't have
4:02
Speaker 1: to worry about this game. So yeah, of course I
4:04
Speaker 1: bet it. I mean, you had to bet Denver. There
4:06
Speaker 1: was like of the money was on Miami, but god,
4:11
Speaker 1: Denver sucks. Well, listen, I've learned my lesson. Like the
4:15
Speaker 1: second he threw that pick, I thought about texting you,
4:18
Speaker 1: I'm like, no, the second I texted him, Denver is
4:21
Speaker 1: going to win this game. And so I just stayed.
4:23
Speaker 1: I just stayed away. But here's the other thing, And
4:25
Speaker 1: you mentioned it right just a few minutes ago in
4:27
Speaker 1: our text exchange. I said I wanted Indie and you
4:31
Speaker 1: denied me. No, no, no, no. I agreen Day and
4:34
Speaker 1: you said take him out. I can't take green bagains
4:37
Speaker 1: the number one defense. You said, what do I want?
4:40
Speaker 1: I said, Indie number one? And then I said, I
4:43
Speaker 1: wanted Dallas number two. D This is not revisionist history.
4:47
Speaker 1: Let me read you the text. You don't have to
4:49
Speaker 1: because it's not gonna look good for you. We agreed
4:54
Speaker 1: we couldn't choose Minnesota first survivor, which was a bummer
4:59
Speaker 1: that we ended up doing, and choose Dallas to cover
5:02
Speaker 1: that was a big mistake. And then as usual, you
5:05
Speaker 1: texted it me, I am cursed, and guess what happens
5:08
Speaker 1: later in the day. Guess what happens later in the
5:11
Speaker 1: day Sunday you broke your other pinky, Minnesota loses, and
5:15
Speaker 1: I'm getting people texting me saying, Chad, You're cursed. Oh no,
5:19
Speaker 1: is that what I've done to you? Because if you
5:22
Speaker 1: literally listen back to last week's podcast chat, I literally
5:24
Speaker 1: call it every single thing that happened. As soon as
5:27
Speaker 1: you said you love the bikes, will all that Dallas
5:29
Speaker 1: is moneyline and we'll all take the charges in our
5:31
Speaker 1: survivor contest. It hurts to say that I can see
5:33
Speaker 1: the future sometimes, buddy, but that's what I do. I
5:36
Speaker 1: call it how I see it. And it was just like,
5:39
Speaker 1: this is the classic Kirk Cousins blows this game against
5:42
Speaker 1: an inferior team, and we just drove right into that tree.
5:46
Speaker 1: And that was that was just so painful. Even when
5:48
Speaker 1: they score, I think they're up whatever it was three
5:50
Speaker 1: or four, we're losing this. There's no doubt Andy Dalan's
5:54
Speaker 1: driving this field. We're losing that. So yeah, painful Sunday.
5:57
Speaker 1: But like you were, you were down the dumps and
5:59
Speaker 1: like I exit you, it doesn't matter. The sun's coming
6:02
Speaker 1: up tomorrow. Like I drove to get seen and know
6:04
Speaker 1: what I did, chat I cash our Pittsburgh over win
6:06
Speaker 1: total of nine and a half. They're already a ten wins.
6:09
Speaker 1: It's time with Thanksgiving, buddy. Yeah, it was a brutal day,
6:11
Speaker 1: but it's just like this is covid Man. We're literally
6:14
Speaker 1: betting during a season that will never be like any
6:16
Speaker 1: other season again, and we're doing our best. We're trying
6:19
Speaker 1: to ride this storm. Some of these trends are so
6:22
Speaker 1: weird this year, like the trend of right now in
6:24
Speaker 1: primetime it's like favorites and when covered ten games and
6:27
Speaker 1: the underdogs covered twenty three, that is like the most
6:30
Speaker 1: insane discrepancy I can ever remember in prime time games.
6:33
Speaker 1: Usually in a good year, the house will take home
6:36
Speaker 1: a little bit like on prime time games the dogs
6:40
Speaker 1: will cover, and this year it's really been fluxed where
6:43
Speaker 1: like we're talking, man, we're just we're trying to navigate
6:45
Speaker 1: this this COVID season. And once again these weeks this
6:48
Speaker 1: week coming up, there's a ton of ugly games I love,
6:51
Speaker 1: and we're gonna dive into it. I know you're gonna
6:52
Speaker 1: hate it, but we have to just stay the course
6:55
Speaker 1: and trust that we're gonna we're gonna start hitting these
6:57
Speaker 1: games right because we've just been so unlucky with some
6:59
Speaker 1: things in some of these games. Here's the thing. You
7:02
Speaker 1: balance me because you're like the sun's gonna come up
7:04
Speaker 1: in the morning. I woke up on Monday morning, I
7:07
Speaker 1: got in the shower after my very intense Peloton ride
7:15
Speaker 1: restance about I was like, fuck, we went one in four,
7:24
Speaker 1: what place are we in right now? How many games back?
7:27
Speaker 1: What's our record? We got? We're lucky. Every everyone just
7:31
Speaker 1: absolutely took a dump last week. There was a couple
7:33
Speaker 1: of guys and they had sharp plays. They moved up
7:35
Speaker 1: a couple of them with four and one, three and two.
7:37
Speaker 1: We were fifteenth place. Seems like a lifetime ago. Just
7:41
Speaker 1: three weeks ago, and now we're down to seventy one,
7:45
Speaker 1: so it's tough. We're still at fifty eight fifty percent
7:48
Speaker 1: for the season. Um, so it's our first since we
7:51
Speaker 1: started the year we've been above six. So we've dipped
7:53
Speaker 1: a blow below sixty percent. But plenty of time. We
7:56
Speaker 1: got five weeks here to make it up. I had
7:58
Speaker 1: the same thing. I woke up like three am Monday,
8:01
Speaker 1: watch the rest of that Sunday night game, and like
8:03
Speaker 1: started doing my work for like the show and betting
8:06
Speaker 1: my own betting numbers, and I was just like, oh God,
8:09
Speaker 1: this like the worst. But it's at the same time,
8:11
Speaker 1: now it comes Tuesday, it's like I'm so ready to go.
8:13
Speaker 1: I've already made a bunch of bets, and it's like
8:15
Speaker 1: you just keep you, just keep rolling on. That's how
8:18
Speaker 1: it is. All Right, we're in seventy first place, but like,
8:21
Speaker 1: look at the end of the day, part of this
8:23
Speaker 1: is an exercise, not just in us winning a million dollars.
8:27
Speaker 1: We want to give people actionable information. We want to
8:30
Speaker 1: make them smarter, we want to give them opportunities to win.
8:33
Speaker 1: If you're listening to this and you end up just
8:36
Speaker 1: doing what we do, if you just follow what we
8:38
Speaker 1: do in the Action Network gap go with those picks
8:41
Speaker 1: every week, you're winning it. If if you choose like
8:44
Speaker 1: the seven or eight we end with, you're probably doing great.
8:47
Speaker 1: But if you choose just the picks we're putting into
8:49
Speaker 1: the Action Network at app at Simon Hunter, then you're
8:54
Speaker 1: winning it. A clip through eleven weeks of the season,
8:58
Speaker 1: you win professional. So it's COVID people, it's COVID. It's COVID, Like,
9:05
Speaker 1: come on, here's what I'd say. We have a lot
9:08
Speaker 1: to look forward to in this show, and we have
9:10
Speaker 1: a lot to look forward to in the rest of
9:11
Speaker 1: the season. And more than anything, it's Thanksgiving week, and
9:15
Speaker 1: you know what, I'm thankful for, Simon. I'm thankful for
9:18
Speaker 1: my new bff, that's you. I'm thankful for a growing
9:22
Speaker 1: favorites community. I'm thankful for the hornets Nest and the
9:26
Speaker 1: big balls better the week. I am thankful for the
9:28
Speaker 1: fact that we're still going to give a survivor pick
9:30
Speaker 1: even though we got knocked out because one of us
9:33
Speaker 1: is cursed. I got my own still going in a
9:36
Speaker 1: big money like pro league, and we started out with
9:39
Speaker 1: five us and there's just seventeen of us. If you
9:41
Speaker 1: want to ride with me, I can keep we can
9:43
Speaker 1: keep doing mine because the only discrepancy was this one
9:46
Speaker 1: week I took the charges. I told you I'm just fading.
9:48
Speaker 1: I don't care. I'm fading Joe Flacco. We don't force
9:50
Speaker 1: you on with Viking, So if you want, we can
9:52
Speaker 1: keep going off that one body. I mean, yeah, I
9:54
Speaker 1: don't know how much profit I'm gonna give you to
9:56
Speaker 1: give the chat, but I'm not going to make anything
9:59
Speaker 1: of this. You I want, but the only thing I
10:01
Speaker 1: want out of this is your happiness. It is the
10:05
Speaker 1: holiday season, and you know what that means. The gravy
10:08
Speaker 1: boats hit the table, the nice sweaters come out at seven,
10:10
Speaker 1: one team makes the NFC East title, and the Action
10:13
Speaker 1: Network is offering its best price of the year on
10:17
Speaker 1: Pro subscriptions. Unlocked the best version of the app in
10:20
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10:24
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10:29
Speaker 1: regular price. Just gives you a full year of access
10:33
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10:37
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10:39
Speaker 1: a Pro subscriber. Gift one to a friend, perhaps someone
10:43
Speaker 1: less fortunate, perhaps someone who keeps betting the lines. Either way,
10:48
Speaker 1: don't wait, the pricing will not last. Go to Action
10:51
Speaker 1: network dot com now to buy it. Happy Thanksgiving gamblers,
10:58
Speaker 1: We're thankful for you. We got some games on Thursday,
11:05
Speaker 1: my brother. Hopefully we got three games. Hopefully we're not
11:08
Speaker 1: getting shut out from the biggest game of the day,
11:10
Speaker 1: the Steelers and the Ravens. But I don't think we
11:12
Speaker 1: can avoid like putting one of these three games, having
11:15
Speaker 1: these one of the one of these three games in
11:16
Speaker 1: consideration right now, just because otherwise the opportunities are pretty
11:20
Speaker 1: slimp pickins on Sunday, so pexans visiting the Lions, Lions
11:25
Speaker 1: plus two and a half getting of the best sevent
11:31
Speaker 1: of the money two and half. Wow, that's that's so weird.
11:38
Speaker 1: I came with the public's coming in Houston just after
11:40
Speaker 1: one week. That's that's insane. Uh least this this Thanksgiving slate,
11:47
Speaker 1: it's so ugly. If this Baltimore and Pittsburgh game isn't on, like,
11:50
Speaker 1: this is crazy. This is the other two games, but
11:53
Speaker 1: this is the classic. If you don't gamble or you
11:55
Speaker 1: don't want to play fantasy football, that's it's a tough
11:57
Speaker 1: slate of games. But I Detroit home dog. You just
12:02
Speaker 1: said they're getting no no money, no bets. How can
12:06
Speaker 1: we not take Detroit, especially after Houston just one against
12:10
Speaker 1: the Patriots. Now they're going on the road against the
12:12
Speaker 1: Lions team that just lost in the road coming home. Um,
12:15
Speaker 1: this is for Patricia's job. I just see a desperate
12:18
Speaker 1: team here in the line, so happy. If this goes
12:21
Speaker 1: up to three, We're gonna get great value on the lines.
12:23
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be taking the lines here as a home dog. Yeah,
12:26
Speaker 1: you know what, I agree with you. We gotta go
12:28
Speaker 1: with the Lions here. This, to me is is kind
12:31
Speaker 1: of a no brainer. I hate betting the lines saying
12:36
Speaker 1: so that we probably this is the won't be the
12:37
Speaker 1: one we're gonna put it. Oh my god, But it's
12:39
Speaker 1: so exactly the right side. It's like it is, it's
12:42
Speaker 1: so it's so sharp, no right being underdogs at home
12:46
Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving on a short week against a terrible, terrible
12:51
Speaker 1: defense that like does not get credit for winning the
12:54
Speaker 1: game they just won. This is probably injury based, Like
12:57
Speaker 1: we'll have to wait and see what the deal is
12:58
Speaker 1: with Kenny Golladay and Swift was out last week for them.
13:01
Speaker 1: We saw the lines. They just couldn't do anything on offense.
13:04
Speaker 1: So we can hold off on this one because it's
13:07
Speaker 1: definitely an injury game. We gotta keep your eye out
13:09
Speaker 1: what's going on the Lions. There was a minute, there
13:11
Speaker 1: was a minute there where I wanted to bet the
13:14
Speaker 1: Lions on the money line made me wait and then
13:17
Speaker 1: I ended up not doing it. And we also wanted
13:20
Speaker 1: to put the lines into our contest, and I will
13:21
Speaker 1: say in the first series, I was glad we hadn't
13:23
Speaker 1: done that. Thank God. The football team is on the road.
13:27
Speaker 1: They are two point dogs at the Dallas Cowboys, getting
13:31
Speaker 1: the majority of the money, not the majority of the bets.
13:33
Speaker 1: This is a prose. Joe's playing my friends. Let's go
13:38
Speaker 1: football team. Chad was spot on him last week. He
13:41
Speaker 1: knew Burrow was gonna go down and we're gonna get
13:43
Speaker 1: an easy cover. That was a nice Big Ball is
13:46
Speaker 1: Better the week called by you, my friend. That was nice,
13:50
Speaker 1: Thank you, thank you, thank you appreciated. Chad Millman got
13:54
Speaker 1: something right and we had Houston the Big Ball is
13:57
Speaker 1: Better the Week that one too. This week, yeah plus
14:01
Speaker 1: three playing the Cowboys who are coming off a big win,
14:04
Speaker 1: big upset win. Coming home. I always feel like the
14:08
Speaker 1: Cowboys lose these games. What was the last year that
14:11
Speaker 1: was a buffalo that went there and just smacked him
14:13
Speaker 1: around as a huge underdog, Dak Prescott didn't do anything.
14:17
Speaker 1: This is this is a great number. Three plus three
14:19
Speaker 1: would be amazing from the three and a half. But
14:21
Speaker 1: I'm happy to take the three of Washington here. It's
14:24
Speaker 1: so interesting to me that people are not giving Washington credit.
14:30
Speaker 1: Their defensive line is great, their overall defense is very strong.
14:34
Speaker 1: I'm a Ron Rivera fan, and I'm an Alex Smith fan.
14:38
Speaker 1: I just feel like he's like he's just a professional quarterback.
14:43
Speaker 1: He like, I don't know why he's not getting the
14:46
Speaker 1: credit he deserves because we're it's just scary bed no man,
14:51
Speaker 1: Like you just watch him move in the pocket and
14:53
Speaker 1: it's just you're always just fearful of his movements and
14:55
Speaker 1: the way he looks because it's just like one wrong
14:58
Speaker 1: stepper hit, it feels like gonna go down. So I
15:00
Speaker 1: think the public is just unsure of them where they've
15:05
Speaker 1: been bad for so many years now, and people just
15:07
Speaker 1: overlook exactly what you're saying. Like, we love their d line.
15:10
Speaker 1: We talked about all the time and they're still being overlooked.
15:13
Speaker 1: Where that last week, that game, they pretty much decided
15:16
Speaker 1: that game that d lin so once again this week,
15:20
Speaker 1: Like you're saying that the public is gonna be coming
15:22
Speaker 1: in on Cowboys. They always do, especially after a win
15:24
Speaker 1: like that, the fans are back on them. I'm happy
15:27
Speaker 1: to take Washington plus three. This is gonna be our
15:30
Speaker 1: first locked Thursday game of the season. Wow, locking it in.
15:36
Speaker 1: I don't see how we don't like it's such a
15:39
Speaker 1: we're you know what, Simon, we're pros. Like that's what
15:44
Speaker 1: we do. We're on the pros here, lock it in? Uh.
15:48
Speaker 1: Also Chase Young, he is just a grown up, Like
15:55
Speaker 1: I like the fact that he ever played against anybody
15:58
Speaker 1: in college almost seems un fair. It's like a college
16:01
Speaker 1: kid playing against peewee kids. Like he is just fierce.
16:06
Speaker 1: I love watching him play, love it. It's it's always
16:09
Speaker 1: weird to just think, like you'll, like, say, you know
16:11
Speaker 1: some like year olds and you see him out and
16:14
Speaker 1: they look like little kids, and you see him, he
16:16
Speaker 1: looks older than me, and I'm like ten years older
16:18
Speaker 1: than the guy. Like what the hell? Man, that guy
16:21
Speaker 1: is a freak. You know what's funny? Uh? He looks
16:24
Speaker 1: older than me too, And I'm older than both of you,
16:27
Speaker 1: but everybody looks older than me because I'm I'm preter
16:30
Speaker 1: naturally young. It's a cucumber water. It's keeping that skin
16:34
Speaker 1: really young looking. By the way. People, you know, I
16:37
Speaker 1: don't get a lot of d m s like you,
16:39
Speaker 1: but I did get people d m ng me a
16:41
Speaker 1: because they felt pity for me, uh, and be because
16:44
Speaker 1: they like the cucumber water. Yeah, you can't go wrong.
16:47
Speaker 1: That's uh. That's like a staple feel, especially at like
16:50
Speaker 1: nice like hotels in Hawaii. Especially everywhere you walk there's
16:52
Speaker 1: like cucumber and orange water everywhere. It's just a high life.
16:55
Speaker 1: Well that's how I live. I live my life as
16:57
Speaker 1: if I'm in a spot right here in the middle
16:59
Speaker 1: of Connecticut, the Houston. No, what are we doing talking
17:03
Speaker 1: about the Ravens and the Steelers the last game on?
17:06
Speaker 1: I mean, this is a COVID special right now. I'm
17:09
Speaker 1: hoping we get the game. The Steelers are four point favorites.
17:13
Speaker 1: We have one. We have one. You you mentioned cashing
17:16
Speaker 1: the Steelers over ticket already. You and I also have
17:20
Speaker 1: the Steelers at about four to one to win the
17:21
Speaker 1: a f C North. This is this is the thing.
17:24
Speaker 1: This is ticket clinching time. Oh yeah, you already can
17:27
Speaker 1: go catch that too. I think it's uping like minus
17:28
Speaker 1: five thousand now, and I think that the Vegas is
17:32
Speaker 1: looking at it that, yeah, the Browns can maybe pull
17:34
Speaker 1: off a crazy run and steal this division. But they
17:38
Speaker 1: pretty much were saying the Ravens are done and looking
17:41
Speaker 1: at this line, every guy that's gonna think they got
17:44
Speaker 1: a good read here is gonna take the Ravens. They're
17:46
Speaker 1: gonna say these teams played tough the last time they played.
17:49
Speaker 1: The Ravens should have beat them. If Lamar wasn't turning
17:52
Speaker 1: over at such a crazy pace, they would have beat
17:54
Speaker 1: the Steelers at home. Well, when I look at this,
17:57
Speaker 1: even before the whole COVID outbreak on the Ravens, I
18:01
Speaker 1: saw a team last week that gave it all and
18:03
Speaker 1: they're all wasn't good enough. It seems like something's wrong
18:06
Speaker 1: there for the Ravens and Pittsburgh. They've never played better.
18:10
Speaker 1: And not that I have this program, I've had a
18:15
Speaker 1: prod It six and I think that you're getting good
18:17
Speaker 1: value of minus four minus three and a half. I'm
18:20
Speaker 1: looking at this game that what do we know about
18:23
Speaker 1: the Ravens. The Ravens play well when they have a lead,
18:26
Speaker 1: and I can't see them really running away on the Steelers.
18:31
Speaker 1: The Steelers just have these offensive weapons that Roethlisberger doesn't
18:34
Speaker 1: have to do much. He just stands back there and
18:36
Speaker 1: gets it to his weapons, and these guys are just
18:37
Speaker 1: making huge plays. So I'm happy to take the minus
18:40
Speaker 1: fourth Pittsburgh. And I just can't see the Ravens competing
18:44
Speaker 1: with all the injuries they've had this year. The Ravens
18:48
Speaker 1: were in such disarray at the end of that game.
18:51
Speaker 1: Important fingers. Offensively, it feels like everybody knows what they're doing.
18:56
Speaker 1: The NFL is amazing the way the way a guy
18:59
Speaker 1: is able to look like just unstoppable and superhero ask
19:07
Speaker 1: one year and completely pedestrian the next year. It makes
19:12
Speaker 1: what Patrick Mahomes has done the past few years seem
19:15
Speaker 1: all what Aaron Rodgers has done over a career, with
19:18
Speaker 1: Tom Brady has done over a career. It makes guys
19:21
Speaker 1: like that look so much better when guys like Lamar
19:25
Speaker 1: Jackson had been soft. And I'm not saying like he's
19:29
Speaker 1: not going to be a good quarterback in the NFL.
19:30
Speaker 1: I think he will be, but they've clearly figured something
19:34
Speaker 1: out defensively to game plan against him. I like the
19:37
Speaker 1: Steelers in this spot. Um, we're not going to choose
19:40
Speaker 1: it just because the game is up in the air
19:41
Speaker 1: and and you can't sort of lock in a COVID game,
19:45
Speaker 1: right and and like we just talked about, this is
19:47
Speaker 1: something people need to remember for the following season, especially
19:50
Speaker 1: all the people that are hate game, with so much
19:52
Speaker 1: hate on Twitter about our pick of Pittsburgh win in
19:54
Speaker 1: that division, that how the Ravens we're just gonna steam
19:56
Speaker 1: him again. It's so hard to put back to back
20:00
Speaker 1: good years together, especially when these guys, the defensive coordinators
20:04
Speaker 1: have a full off season to figure out your offense.
20:07
Speaker 1: So we gave it out early in the year. The
20:09
Speaker 1: under owned the Ravens and we talked about how we
20:12
Speaker 1: like this there's in this division. It was just simply
20:15
Speaker 1: because we were banking on the same thing we see
20:17
Speaker 1: every year in the NFL. Teams get figured out. That's what.
20:19
Speaker 1: Like you just said, you need the great quarterbacks. That's
20:21
Speaker 1: a small list. There's not a lot of great quarterbacks,
20:24
Speaker 1: and they don't. They don't. There's just not enough consistency
20:27
Speaker 1: at the QB position for us to have what you
20:30
Speaker 1: just talked about, where there's gonna be a year and
20:31
Speaker 1: year out. These guys put up the numbers because so
20:34
Speaker 1: many of these people are dependent on the system and
20:36
Speaker 1: guys being healthy to have great years. So it was
20:39
Speaker 1: just a bad year with the Ravens that they have
20:42
Speaker 1: too many injuries. And like you said, we're not gonna
20:45
Speaker 1: put this in just because everything going on with COVID.
20:48
Speaker 1: So this is this next game is interesting to me.
20:51
Speaker 1: It's the Titans and the Colts. The Titans are three
20:55
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites at home. I love the Colts.
20:59
Speaker 1: Last week against the Packers, I thought from the second
21:03
Speaker 1: to line was posted until it closed, it was always
21:05
Speaker 1: the wrong number. Um the Colts ended up covering. What
21:13
Speaker 1: why is why? I feel like the Colts aren't getting
21:16
Speaker 1: enough respect, all the money, all the bets coming in
21:18
Speaker 1: on the Titans right now? Why don't wise guys like
21:21
Speaker 1: the Colts? Simon? They like the man. They're the ones
21:25
Speaker 1: I've been bed and with that, I bet with you.
21:26
Speaker 1: Last week on the Colts, I misread that one like
21:30
Speaker 1: I fell into the stupid trend trap where like I
21:34
Speaker 1: saw the trend that Rogers was twelve and oh after
21:38
Speaker 1: lose on this spread and I had them pro raded
21:40
Speaker 1: better Green Bay. And like you just said, this Colts
21:43
Speaker 1: defense they're incredible, and that they make plays when they
21:49
Speaker 1: need to and when they've had weird games like they
21:51
Speaker 1: had the game with Joe Burrow just tore them up
21:53
Speaker 1: and they came back in one. And I'm looking at
21:57
Speaker 1: this same way you are. Titans just had a huge
22:00
Speaker 1: win on the road playing against the cold team. We
22:03
Speaker 1: just had a huge one at home, and only the
22:07
Speaker 1: only things scaring me off. I can see where the
22:09
Speaker 1: public is coming in on. It's so hard to sweep
22:11
Speaker 1: divisional games, and that's what we're looking here with the Colts.
22:13
Speaker 1: We're we're looking at the team that we believe is
22:15
Speaker 1: gonna sweep the Titans this year. But I do I
22:18
Speaker 1: believe that Rivers didn't play that great last week. I
22:21
Speaker 1: think that was more about the weapons around them. And
22:25
Speaker 1: I'll ride with you here. I don't love that it's
22:27
Speaker 1: minus three and a half because we've been burned by
22:28
Speaker 1: the hooks so many times. But I can't take the
22:31
Speaker 1: Titans here after that game last week, that was such
22:33
Speaker 1: an emotional win. They truly hate Baltimore. Like you saw
22:36
Speaker 1: a variable not shaking hardball his hand after the game.
22:39
Speaker 1: They don't like each other, So that's that's a lot
22:42
Speaker 1: different than what we sold. The Colts and the Packers,
22:44
Speaker 1: they were hugging each other. Aaron Rodgers talked for like
22:47
Speaker 1: twenty minutes of the midfield after the game. So to me,
22:50
Speaker 1: it just feels like a letdown game for the Titans.
22:52
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna I'll back the Colts. In this position,
22:55
Speaker 1: Philip Rivers shouldn't be having long conversations with anybody. He's like,
22:59
Speaker 1: like that's a COVID party right there, and he's like
23:02
Speaker 1: in the elderly crowd, you know. So he should just
23:05
Speaker 1: be off the field as soon as the game is over.
23:07
Speaker 1: And I will say, my heart is in my throat
23:11
Speaker 1: every single time he throws the ball. If I am
23:13
Speaker 1: betting on the Colts, but I do like him, I
23:15
Speaker 1: do like him. To me, this would be like, let's
23:18
Speaker 1: hope to God that because all this money is coming
23:22
Speaker 1: in on the Titans, let's just see if the number
23:24
Speaker 1: drops right, Like on Sunday morning when we're texting, let's
23:28
Speaker 1: just make sure we're thinking about where the Colts are
23:30
Speaker 1: and like the DK have them the three. Honestly, if
23:33
Speaker 1: the number did move, I feel living better because that
23:35
Speaker 1: means that Vegas has a read here and they don't care.
23:38
Speaker 1: They don't care how much money is coming on their side.
23:40
Speaker 1: They're gonna leave. Like just like the Miami Denver last week.
23:43
Speaker 1: You know, it did move a little bit and moved
23:45
Speaker 1: up to from two and a half to three and
23:47
Speaker 1: a half, but they just left it there all week,
23:50
Speaker 1: and like Darren I think it was Darren tweet nine
23:53
Speaker 1: percent of the money it came out on Miami and
23:54
Speaker 1: they were moving. And so when you're in those situations,
23:57
Speaker 1: all the money's coming on the other side and the
23:58
Speaker 1: line just doesn't move, those are my favorite. Those are
24:01
Speaker 1: my favorite ones because you're just like, all right, sweet,
24:03
Speaker 1: obviously they have a good read here and my reads
24:05
Speaker 1: matching it. So I'm with you. If it goes down
24:07
Speaker 1: to three, that's an automatic play. That's a little insider
24:10
Speaker 1: tip you just get like, if if the money is
24:12
Speaker 1: coming in and Vegas doesn't move it at all, then
24:14
Speaker 1: then you know you're you're on the right side. Here's
24:16
Speaker 1: another um, here's another pros. Joe's We're gonna say something. Yeah,
24:21
Speaker 1: I was just gonna say that if you, if you
24:22
Speaker 1: honestly watch numbers like you love watching lines, you play
24:26
Speaker 1: that trend, I guarantee you you'll head above a sixty
24:29
Speaker 1: percent clip for your career. That's like a known thing,
24:32
Speaker 1: like when all the money's coming outside and Vegas doesn't
24:35
Speaker 1: moved that line. You're not gonna win it every time,
24:37
Speaker 1: but six you can quit your day job and just
24:40
Speaker 1: do that the rest of your life. So it is
24:42
Speaker 1: a really really good thing to watch. Well, I'm not
24:44
Speaker 1: gonna lie to I'm looking for an exit. So if
24:47
Speaker 1: that ends, that ends up being the way out, so
24:49
Speaker 1: be it. Panthers plus four and a half, maybe plus
24:54
Speaker 1: four at the Vikings, Matt Mitchell ring the bell. We
24:58
Speaker 1: got a pros Joe's alert, the bets on the Panthers,
25:10
Speaker 1: of the money on the Vikings. Of course we're taking
25:13
Speaker 1: the Vikings here. Of course, we're taking the Vikings here.
25:17
Speaker 1: To have to it's to such an easy play. Like Panthers,
25:23
Speaker 1: they had a huge win, a blowout at home, their
25:26
Speaker 1: first win, and I don't even know it feels like
25:28
Speaker 1: two months now, coming across country to play a team
25:31
Speaker 1: that just lost embarrassingly at home. Of course, we love
25:34
Speaker 1: the Vikings here gotta play it. I'll tell you what, though,
25:38
Speaker 1: you give me a team that over the next five
25:40
Speaker 1: years that I think we'll win a Super Bowl. I'm
25:43
Speaker 1: going on the Carolina Panthers because when I saw their
25:46
Speaker 1: record there went three and seven. That is a good
25:49
Speaker 1: three and seven team. It feels like every week they're competitive.
25:52
Speaker 1: I like their players. I think Matt Rule. He's clearly
25:54
Speaker 1: a very good coach, has the team ready, is not
25:57
Speaker 1: afraid to take chances plays the percentage is right. I
26:01
Speaker 1: am all in on the Carolina Panthers. I love it
26:05
Speaker 1: all too, but it's gonna be one of those We're
26:06
Speaker 1: gonna have to really see what the deal is with
26:08
Speaker 1: Teddy because we've never seen Teddy be able to stay
26:10
Speaker 1: healthy for a whole season and put together a winning season.
26:13
Speaker 1: Like when he played in Minnesota, he didn't do much.
26:15
Speaker 1: He had Adrian Peterson in a good defense, and this
26:19
Speaker 1: year we saw him really coming out and really leading
26:21
Speaker 1: that offense. But he got heard again. So I'm with you.
26:24
Speaker 1: I love them for the future, especially they've got a
26:26
Speaker 1: really good young defense and a good corn offense. But
26:29
Speaker 1: it's all about Teddy. Teddy's gotta get right. You gotta
26:31
Speaker 1: stay healthy and we'll see what kind of team they
26:33
Speaker 1: can be the next couple of years. Teddy covers, all Right,
26:37
Speaker 1: your favorite team, the Los Angeles Chargers, the one that's
26:39
Speaker 1: still alive in your other survivor pool. Uh. They are
26:42
Speaker 1: traveling to Buffalo to play Josh Allen. Justin Herbert gonna
26:47
Speaker 1: be Rookie of the year, That's that's a given now.
26:50
Speaker 1: With Joe Burrow on the shelf. Six point dogs in Buffalo,
26:57
Speaker 1: this is a pass for me. Yeah, I'll be on Buffalo.
27:00
Speaker 1: They're coming off of bye week. Maybe they'll come out
27:02
Speaker 1: all the sluggish in the first half, but we know
27:04
Speaker 1: what the Charges do. They they're not a consistent team
27:07
Speaker 1: with a rookie quarterback now going on the road, and
27:09
Speaker 1: we saw how he played when he went down to Miami.
27:11
Speaker 1: He he just looked flustered. And after that win, they're
27:15
Speaker 1: gonna be feeling good, the Chargers and the Bills. I
27:19
Speaker 1: just can't see them sleep walking through this game just
27:21
Speaker 1: because they need it that they need to really start
27:24
Speaker 1: racking these wins up, because they're starting to chase that
27:27
Speaker 1: not fear of Miami, because Miami kind of had that
27:30
Speaker 1: letdown game in Denver, but that they're pushing them. The
27:33
Speaker 1: Miami can still somehow steal this division. So I can't
27:36
Speaker 1: see the Bill is really letting down here. I'm happy
27:38
Speaker 1: to take them, but I see it's up to five
27:39
Speaker 1: and a half, so that means some sharp money's coming
27:41
Speaker 1: on on alright, that soide. As long as it doesn't
27:43
Speaker 1: get above six and a half, I'm happy to take
27:45
Speaker 1: the Bills. Well, now you got me convinced take the Bills.
27:48
Speaker 1: Now you got me thinking, oh my god, that's the
27:49
Speaker 1: exact right spot. It does feel like walk the way
27:52
Speaker 1: and asked Matt Mitchell because he's been spot on with
27:54
Speaker 1: his Bills calls. Matt Mitchell, the only thing I could
27:57
Speaker 1: say about this game is I guarantee it will be
28:00
Speaker 1: extremely fishy. As a post by a week post holiday
28:03
Speaker 1: fishy home game, written Oliver. You don't like the Bills, correct,
28:07
Speaker 1: it's a big number. Take the Bill's voice. Let's also
28:10
Speaker 1: like Matt. That's what I'm saying. He's an expert. Every
28:13
Speaker 1: time he doesn't like them, they win, and when he
28:16
Speaker 1: does like them, it's not good. He's a Western New
28:19
Speaker 1: York native and true fan. He's a Buffalo Bills fan fan.
28:23
Speaker 1: This team makes me very anxious this season, so I'm
28:26
Speaker 1: not used to this success. I was a child the
28:28
Speaker 1: last time they won the East, so it's all very
28:30
Speaker 1: new to me that Mitchell is one of those guys
28:32
Speaker 1: who like when when Quinn good things happen, he's looking
28:35
Speaker 1: around the corner. He's a little suspect. He's like, what's
28:38
Speaker 1: the you know what the difference is for me when
28:42
Speaker 1: good things happen. I'm like, of course they should happen.
28:45
Speaker 1: One year, one year, one year, my wife and I
28:49
Speaker 1: went to a charity dinner and it was one of
28:51
Speaker 1: those dinners where like, you like pay for raffle tickets,
28:55
Speaker 1: so you can buy like ten raffle tickets for a
28:58
Speaker 1: hundred bucks, and then you can decide to put any
29:01
Speaker 1: number of raffle tickets you want in any prize. And
29:03
Speaker 1: so you could put all ten raffle tickets in the
29:05
Speaker 1: biggest prize and you've got better chances to win the prize, right.
29:08
Speaker 1: So one year, the top two prizes are a trip
29:13
Speaker 1: for two for like three days and three nights to
29:16
Speaker 1: Hawaii and uh free movie passes for two for a
29:21
Speaker 1: year to any Sony theater in New York City. Any
29:24
Speaker 1: Sony Theater in the country. We were living in Manhattan
29:26
Speaker 1: at the time, and so my wife and I bought
29:29
Speaker 1: like a couple hundred dollars with the raffle tickets, and
29:32
Speaker 1: we we put a pack often in the Sony Theater
29:36
Speaker 1: UH free movie pass bucket, and we put a packetten
29:40
Speaker 1: in the in the Hawaii bucket and we won both prizes.
29:46
Speaker 1: Oh my god. And the next day or two days later,
29:49
Speaker 1: that was a Saturday night, probably on Monday, I'm at
29:52
Speaker 1: work and I'm talking to a buddy and I told
29:55
Speaker 1: him what happened. I'm like, I'm just waiting to see
29:58
Speaker 1: what else happens to me this week. He goes, Dude,
30:00
Speaker 1: the good things already did happen to you this week?
30:03
Speaker 1: That's it, You're done. I'm shocked because I thought the
30:06
Speaker 1: end of the story, you're gonna say, and now he's dead. Well,
30:10
Speaker 1: the truth is he is that nothing. Well, that is
30:16
Speaker 1: fucking weird, but that has nothing to do with the story.
30:19
Speaker 1: What's even crazier is he died. And this is a
30:21
Speaker 1: guy like after we live We were working together in
30:24
Speaker 1: New York. We were good friends. He was from Salt
30:26
Speaker 1: Lake City. He moved back to Salt Lake City and
30:29
Speaker 1: so you know, this was back before texting and stuff.
30:31
Speaker 1: He and I would talk like every say, like three months. Right.
30:35
Speaker 1: He's a lawyer. He was the public defender for the
30:39
Speaker 1: guy who kidnapped Elizabeth Smart in Salt Lake City. So
30:43
Speaker 1: like during the trial, I would turn on the television
30:46
Speaker 1: and just see him sitting there next to the guy
30:48
Speaker 1: and like there was no defense. Like, you know, he
30:50
Speaker 1: knew what what was going to happen. But the point
30:53
Speaker 1: is I look at like a little differently than you
30:55
Speaker 1: and Matt Mitchell do. And for that reason alone, let's
30:58
Speaker 1: walk away from the Bills. That's it. Water the New
31:09
Speaker 1: York Football Giants. Daniel Jones my least favorite player in
31:12
Speaker 1: the NFL at the Cincinnati Bengals. It's gonna burn me,
31:16
Speaker 1: but I'm gonna take the Giants. I've always liked the
31:19
Speaker 1: Giants better on the road. This line is crazy inflated
31:23
Speaker 1: right now, obviously because the injury to Joe Burrow. But
31:26
Speaker 1: just this morning, tons of articles coming out about all
31:29
Speaker 1: this drama going on the Bengals locker room. They got
31:32
Speaker 1: players complaining about coaches, like saying the way they talk
31:35
Speaker 1: and we treat them isn't good. It feels like the
31:37
Speaker 1: only thing carrying any water there was Joe Burrow. Every week,
31:40
Speaker 1: the only impressive thing we talked about about that team
31:43
Speaker 1: was Joe Burrow. So I hate that I have to
31:45
Speaker 1: take the Giants here and they're off of bye week.
31:48
Speaker 1: This is crazy. They're up to minus five. But I
31:51
Speaker 1: just can't see how the Bengals are gonna move the
31:53
Speaker 1: ball against this Giants defense. So I'm hoping very very
31:57
Speaker 1: little from Daniel Jones and he doesn't turn the ball over.
31:59
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna take the Giants here with the public. Uh.
32:03
Speaker 1: The other day, we were watching the games, my son
32:06
Speaker 1: and I and he's like, Daniel Jones might be the
32:08
Speaker 1: best number eight in the history of the NFL. He
32:11
Speaker 1: was kidding, of course. Then we decided that that in
32:15
Speaker 1: order the best number eights in the history of the NFL,
32:19
Speaker 1: Troy Aikman, Daniel Jones, Vince Evans, who was the quarterback
32:24
Speaker 1: from the Chicago Bears, and the Johnts are a past
32:26
Speaker 1: We're not putting him in the contest. So the Browns
32:29
Speaker 1: are on the road at the Jaguars minus six and
32:33
Speaker 1: a half. Look, I was all over the Jaguars against
32:36
Speaker 1: the Steelers, as were you and as we're most wise guys,
32:39
Speaker 1: But I don't know, man. Yeah, it came back, came
32:42
Speaker 1: back the quarterback right now, he used the whole reason
32:44
Speaker 1: they didn't cover that. Like the Jacks had the opportunities.
32:47
Speaker 1: They were up three nothing. Ben Roethlisberger dropped back and
32:50
Speaker 1: threw an absolute gift as a pick six to the
32:53
Speaker 1: defender and it hit him right in the hands and
32:55
Speaker 1: he dropped it. He had known ahead of him we
32:57
Speaker 1: would have been up ten nothing at that point. So
33:00
Speaker 1: and back to Jackson. I mean, Mince, you can come back.
33:02
Speaker 1: Maybe sparks some magic in that team, but right now,
33:04
Speaker 1: the quarterback situation, I can't put my money on them
33:07
Speaker 1: again this week. Agree, But can you back to Browns? No?
33:13
Speaker 1: Not at six and a half on the road, like
33:14
Speaker 1: I'm not ready to give Like if you watch that
33:19
Speaker 1: game that once again, we talked about these referees, man.
33:22
Speaker 1: So last night Mike Evans was getting tackled and he
33:26
Speaker 1: kept fighting for xtuury yards and he broke the tackle
33:28
Speaker 1: and scored the touchdown. Through two guys for a touchdown.
33:31
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield carries the ball to the left. He gets
33:34
Speaker 1: tackled by a guy. He's pumping his legs forward and
33:37
Speaker 1: the guy strips the ball. They blew the whistling saide
33:40
Speaker 1: he was down by forward progress. So it feels like
33:45
Speaker 1: the Browns got gifted to win last week and the
33:48
Speaker 1: line is not crazy. I'm honestly shocked at what's not seven,
33:51
Speaker 1: just because the Browns have played so well and the
33:53
Speaker 1: best thing to do is run the ball against the
33:55
Speaker 1: team the Jaguars that cannot stop the run. So I
33:58
Speaker 1: don't hate taking the Browns here, but I don't want
34:00
Speaker 1: to put in the competition either, So we can pass
34:02
Speaker 1: on Dolphins. Visiting your favorite team, The New York Jets
34:08
Speaker 1: seven point favorites the Miami Dolphins. Uh so ugly and
34:16
Speaker 1: right now we don't know what deals with to a
34:19
Speaker 1: guy hasn't passed. I don't think he's passing the yards
34:22
Speaker 1: in the game yet. And the Jets have been covering.
34:28
Speaker 1: They keep covering these games. Who knows how they do it,
34:30
Speaker 1: but they keep back dooring and covering these games. And
34:34
Speaker 1: once again, if we taught me, it's seven and a
34:36
Speaker 1: half a divisional game, we don't know what the deals
34:40
Speaker 1: with two. Uh. I guess I gotta take the Jets again,
34:42
Speaker 1: but I'm hoping it's Sam Darnal will be back this
34:44
Speaker 1: week because it's the worst putting your money on Joe Flacco.
34:48
Speaker 1: But it's the right side the Jets here, dude, what
34:51
Speaker 1: do you got this game rated at? I had a
34:54
Speaker 1: rated six, Like, in my mind on the road, six
34:59
Speaker 1: is a lot out of points to give a divisional foe.
35:01
Speaker 1: That's just how bad the Jets are. So the fact
35:04
Speaker 1: that they hung seven and a half is insane. That
35:06
Speaker 1: they're just begging us to bet the Jets here. So
35:09
Speaker 1: it might be falling into a trap here, but I
35:11
Speaker 1: have to take the seven and a half. Is that
35:13
Speaker 1: how I want to spend my Sunday? No, I don't
35:15
Speaker 1: want to need the Jets in a contest, but we're
35:17
Speaker 1: gonna think about it. We'll think about it. The Raiders,
35:20
Speaker 1: this game open to pick. They're visiting the Falcons. There's
35:22
Speaker 1: like PM games. The Raiders are visiting the Falcons. It
35:26
Speaker 1: opened to pick now it's at minus three. We fell
35:28
Speaker 1: in love with the Falcons once at just the wrong
35:31
Speaker 1: time this past week, and this is the right time.
35:34
Speaker 1: That's what sucks. That's what sucks so much about gambling.
35:36
Speaker 1: It's like, as a pro I can't like we just
35:38
Speaker 1: talked about emotions. Can't get involved the Raiders. I had
35:43
Speaker 1: I'll be up front, I did not see Derek Carr
35:47
Speaker 1: having year he's having. He's playing so well, like of
35:51
Speaker 1: all the teams. Will lose a game this year and
35:53
Speaker 1: you come out of it saying, Wow, that team has
35:55
Speaker 1: really impressed me. Oakland. In that Chiefs game, I gave
35:59
Speaker 1: them no chance. I thought they were gonna get blown out.
36:01
Speaker 1: And every time the Chiefs would score, Derek car would
36:04
Speaker 1: drive the field and score again. But this has to
36:07
Speaker 1: be a letdown spot. There's no way the Raiders can
36:10
Speaker 1: keep playing at this higher level of like they're just
36:12
Speaker 1: They're just not can They're not the kind of team
36:16
Speaker 1: like Pittsburgh and the Chiefs that are just gonna keep
36:19
Speaker 1: winning these big games. And Atlanta everyone's lefting for dead.
36:23
Speaker 1: They got embarrassed last week. The fact that even they
36:26
Speaker 1: even cover in teasers was like the most sickening part
36:28
Speaker 1: of that. I can't believe they couldn't cover that game.
36:32
Speaker 1: I can't tye some hell, so I had to take
36:35
Speaker 1: the Falcons. But I don't completely understand if you're just like,
36:37
Speaker 1: I don't want to put this competition, but this is
36:39
Speaker 1: by far the Hornet's nest game, I'm walking to a
36:41
Speaker 1: fucking hornets nest, all right, I'll be my companion hornets nest.
36:47
Speaker 1: By the way, we're walking into the goddamn hornets nest
36:49
Speaker 1: because I'm with you on the Falcons, Like everything you
36:52
Speaker 1: need is exactly true. And you know what got me,
36:54
Speaker 1: what really got me the emotional component, like we and
37:00
Speaker 1: by we I mean me. I have to get out
37:03
Speaker 1: of the emotional elements of this and listen, don't laugh.
37:07
Speaker 1: You're not immune to it. I know, like you've need it,
37:10
Speaker 1: admitted on this call when we were vulnerable with each other.
37:14
Speaker 1: But that that like sometimes the Twitter Twitter Rottie gets
37:18
Speaker 1: to you and so it's impacting some things. And so
37:21
Speaker 1: I think we gotta go with the falcons here so
37:23
Speaker 1: that happens all the time. I like the over last night,
37:26
Speaker 1: and I fought I'm following the people the Action Network.
37:28
Speaker 1: You guys are messing in my head, and everyone was
37:30
Speaker 1: on the under. I'm like, that has to be the
37:32
Speaker 1: right side. Maybe I'm overthinking this. So I put out
37:34
Speaker 1: the under and from my face. But yeah, so you
37:38
Speaker 1: also put out the Bucks minus five and I told
37:40
Speaker 1: you that was the wrong side. Yeah, Well, I didn't know.
37:44
Speaker 1: Someone hit me with the theory that it's actually holding
37:46
Speaker 1: up that Tom Brady's bedtimes nine o'clock, and they said
37:49
Speaker 1: it on the broadcast. Yeah, they talked about it. I
37:51
Speaker 1: should have known better that that was such. That is.
37:54
Speaker 1: I honestly got good read. It's this he goes about
37:57
Speaker 1: at nine o'clock. These games all finished to eleven PM.
37:59
Speaker 1: He doesn't play well in the second half. It's happened
38:02
Speaker 1: both times he's had late games. So I gotta I
38:04
Speaker 1: gotta start listening to people about that trend. He's he's
38:07
Speaker 1: sweepy to Tommy. Alright, so we're taking the Falcons. It's
38:13
Speaker 1: in there. Falcons are on the list. Cardinals are the Patriots.
38:16
Speaker 1: UM game open to pick. It's now with Patriots plus three.
38:20
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't have strong opinions on this
38:21
Speaker 1: one way or the other. I could be persuaded if
38:24
Speaker 1: if you're so inclined, Yeah, I guess I'll probably. I'm
38:28
Speaker 1: probably with you all pass on it. The smart side
38:30
Speaker 1: is gonna be the Patriots, the home dog coming off
38:34
Speaker 1: a bad loss playing a Cardinals team that they've not
38:38
Speaker 1: that they look bad against the Seahawks. That was such
38:40
Speaker 1: a letdown game, and we talked about last week. So
38:43
Speaker 1: with the Cardinals extended rest the fact that it's down
38:45
Speaker 1: to two and a half, now, I gotta take the Cardinals.
38:47
Speaker 1: They they're They're just a more complete team, and I
38:51
Speaker 1: know they have a lot of injuries and that's that
38:53
Speaker 1: is scary. But New England they're just not good against
38:56
Speaker 1: these teams that can pass. New England strong against teams
38:58
Speaker 1: that just run the ball. So oh, I can't not pass.
39:02
Speaker 1: I can't pass in the corners here. I can't see
39:04
Speaker 1: them dropping two and round. I think they're gonna win
39:06
Speaker 1: this one, so two and a half, hopefully don't get
39:08
Speaker 1: a kneel down again for the extra point. But I'll
39:11
Speaker 1: take the two and a half of the Cards, all right,
39:13
Speaker 1: I'll put it on the list. Uh guess what it's
39:16
Speaker 1: time for. I don't even need a reminder. We're go
39:20
Speaker 1: into the late games and I will remind people we
39:24
Speaker 1: still got our big balls better the week still to come.
39:28
Speaker 1: You're gonna hate it so much. Let me apologize ahead
39:31
Speaker 1: of time. Oh my god. Alright, the forty Niners are
39:33
Speaker 1: on the road at the Rams. Is forty Niners on
39:36
Speaker 1: the road at the Rams as seven point underdogs. Some
39:39
Speaker 1: Bucks still have a seven and a half in a
39:41
Speaker 1: divisional game. We we know what the deal is. Either
39:44
Speaker 1: of these teams can have terrible qbs and somehow it's
39:47
Speaker 1: still going to be a battle even if the other
39:49
Speaker 1: team is way better in the smarter side. But Rams,
39:51
Speaker 1: coming off the big prime time game, coming home, playing
39:54
Speaker 1: the forty Niners after a bye week, I gotta take
39:57
Speaker 1: the forty Niners. Yeah, I think I agree with you.
39:59
Speaker 1: Kyle shan Hands a great coach. These teams play tight.
40:03
Speaker 1: The more time the forty Niners have to get healthy,
40:05
Speaker 1: the better off they are. The last time we felt
40:08
Speaker 1: this confident about the forty Niners and we thought it
40:10
Speaker 1: was a no brainer. They were ten point dogs on
40:13
Speaker 1: the road in New Orleans. They even with Drew Brees
40:16
Speaker 1: playing most of the game, they should have win that game,
40:19
Speaker 1: right like and even like two muff punts, bad penalties,
40:23
Speaker 1: and then even in the end like Nicki Mullins had
40:26
Speaker 1: the opportunity to get the back door and he threw
40:29
Speaker 1: a pick at the end zone that was right when
40:30
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray neal down, So we got two kicks in
40:33
Speaker 1: the dick at the same time. I think I agree
40:36
Speaker 1: with you. I like the Niners were building a pretty
40:38
Speaker 1: big portfolio. Here. We have six games that we're looking
40:42
Speaker 1: at right now, and we have a few games left
40:45
Speaker 1: to go. Plus the big balls bet of the week
40:48
Speaker 1: is remaining. We're into the late game Slates Saints. Oh god,
40:53
Speaker 1: oh no, oh no, you aren't. No Saints at Denver,
41:00
Speaker 1: Denver plus six, Denver six point five and a half
41:02
Speaker 1: point underdogs at home. No, I'm not gonna do it
41:05
Speaker 1: to you. But and this is a pros and Joe's game. Yeah,
41:15
Speaker 1: that's the Saints money on the Broncos right And I
41:20
Speaker 1: don't want to say that they're they're probably looking at
41:22
Speaker 1: us and they're saying, can this kid do it two
41:23
Speaker 1: weeks in a row because he played really well against Atlanta?
41:26
Speaker 1: But we all know Atlantis thinks the fact that they
41:28
Speaker 1: kicked three field goals against New Orleans, they're just a
41:32
Speaker 1: bad team. And I would I would take the Broncos here,
41:36
Speaker 1: but the fact that they won last week and they
41:38
Speaker 1: really dominated, especially running the ball. You really can't run
41:41
Speaker 1: it against the Saints like that. So if they're if
41:44
Speaker 1: they're depending on a lock to be passing the ball,
41:46
Speaker 1: I'm happy to take the Saints side. Anything under seven,
41:48
Speaker 1: I'll take the Saints. Interesting. Okay, Saints under seven, I'm
41:53
Speaker 1: putting it. I'm not putting it on the list. It's
41:55
Speaker 1: just sort of it's on my side. It's not. It's
41:58
Speaker 1: not it's like the most confident just playing me. But
42:01
Speaker 1: I do think it's a good number. Oh, this is
42:04
Speaker 1: a prime time game here, prime time spot. This will
42:06
Speaker 1: be the Fox America's game of the week for Eastern
42:10
Speaker 1: kickoff Chiefs. This is when we're like, you know, doing
42:15
Speaker 1: our three o'clock Turkey and naptime Chiefs two and a
42:19
Speaker 1: half point favorites, three and a half point favorites on
42:22
Speaker 1: the road at Tampa can tired Tommy have rested up
42:27
Speaker 1: enough to compete against Peppy Patrick in the Kansas City Chiefs.
42:34
Speaker 1: Oh God, A little scary that it's moved up three
42:38
Speaker 1: and a half because it was at three for a while. Um,
42:43
Speaker 1: can't do it. Can't take the Chiefs. I mean, you
42:47
Speaker 1: can't take the Bucks here. It's it's too scary that
42:50
Speaker 1: the Chiefs can just what they can do on this offense.
42:54
Speaker 1: But it's the right side. You gotta take the Buccaneers
42:57
Speaker 1: three and a half at home after losing our prime
42:59
Speaker 1: time game against the Chiefs too, made that comeback look
43:04
Speaker 1: so easy. Uh there there, there do for a bad one.
43:09
Speaker 1: I just can't see the Chiefs on fifteen on one.
43:11
Speaker 1: And this this feels like one of those games that
43:13
Speaker 1: they're gonna drop this year. This is Chiefs are a
43:16
Speaker 1: thirteen and three team fourteen and two, and eventually the
43:19
Speaker 1: guy will lease a couple of games here and this
43:21
Speaker 1: is a a classic letdown spot where the Buccaneers should
43:24
Speaker 1: cover that number and win this game. So I'm happy
43:26
Speaker 1: to take the Buccaneers, happy to take him in the contest.
43:29
Speaker 1: Take him. It's up to you, because I mean, we
43:33
Speaker 1: do have a lot of ugly dogs, but this, this
43:35
Speaker 1: is like a This is a dog that I feel
43:39
Speaker 1: like only pros are gonna be on. What Who in
43:40
Speaker 1: the public is gonna be taking the Buccaneers, So it's
43:43
Speaker 1: up to you. I do like the number. I like
43:44
Speaker 1: that it's three and a half. Okay, all right, we're
43:48
Speaker 1: down to the Sunday night game and the Monday night game.
43:51
Speaker 1: We haven't done our big balls bet of the week.
43:56
Speaker 1: It's gotta be well. The Bears are a fuck you,
44:02
Speaker 1: fuck you your motherfucker. If you make me bet the
44:05
Speaker 1: Bears eight and a half point dogs. Eight and a
44:08
Speaker 1: half point dogs on the road at Green Bay. This
44:12
Speaker 1: isn't it. And I'm going to use to make our
44:15
Speaker 1: fans put their money on a tip. This is the
44:16
Speaker 1: I knew as soon as I started saying it, I
44:18
Speaker 1: knew it was gonna be the fucking Eagles. You're gonna
44:20
Speaker 1: have god damn fucking Eagles. Oh my god, you dick.
44:26
Speaker 1: Hold on, Let's talk about the Bears for a second.
44:28
Speaker 1: They suck. They're banged up, too many injuries. It's like
44:34
Speaker 1: this slide has just been crazy. We talked about the
44:37
Speaker 1: fact that there were five and one and now where
44:38
Speaker 1: they're at now it's insane to think about. But I can't, can't,
44:44
Speaker 1: can't do it. It's it's too high. The number I
44:46
Speaker 1: had just had seven. So you're getting good value on
44:47
Speaker 1: the Bears. But I'm not gonna make you put it
44:49
Speaker 1: in but the Bears. That's that's a good that's a
44:51
Speaker 1: good number, and you should take the Bears at that number.
44:53
Speaker 1: But we're not gonna put it in fucking Bears. I
44:57
Speaker 1: don't even know if Nick Fole is going to be playing.
45:00
Speaker 1: Who's the thing, which is who's the quarterback going to
45:02
Speaker 1: be Nick Foles. Honest to god, nick Foles looked like
45:05
Speaker 1: he had been killed in the last game that he played.
45:08
Speaker 1: I don't hate I don't know. I don't hate the
45:09
Speaker 1: idea of bringing Mitch back. At this point, at least
45:11
Speaker 1: you you can just let him burn out the rest
45:13
Speaker 1: of the season. If he can win a couple of
45:15
Speaker 1: games and get you guys in the playoffs, that's a
45:17
Speaker 1: great story. But at this point, I just think that
45:20
Speaker 1: both bridges are burned. Like Nick Foles will be back
45:22
Speaker 1: next year and either will Mitch. So it's I'm in
45:24
Speaker 1: different here. They play a quarterback, Listen, I wanted we
45:27
Speaker 1: watched this Eagles Browns game. The Eagles fumble at the
45:31
Speaker 1: goal line on their opening drive, the Browns marched down
45:35
Speaker 1: the entire field, they score. Then every time Carson Wentz
45:40
Speaker 1: has a chance to bring the Eagles back, whether it's
45:43
Speaker 1: from his side of the field or at the goal
45:45
Speaker 1: line of the Browns, he throws an interception. So we
45:50
Speaker 1: lose that game, which we absolutely should have won because
45:54
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz is a dumpster fire, which makes me think,
45:59
Speaker 1: is Jalen hurt? Terrible because he's never in the game.
46:03
Speaker 1: But like now we're going into the last game of
46:05
Speaker 1: the week, Monday Night Football. We got our big balls
46:08
Speaker 1: better the week. This is clearly it because we haven't
46:11
Speaker 1: used it yet. And it's the Eagles who were disgusting
46:14
Speaker 1: and people were tweeting at you how disgusting the Eagles are.
46:17
Speaker 1: And you're gonna go on a podcast, a massive podcast
46:20
Speaker 1: with a growing audience getting bigger. The audience is getting bigger.
46:24
Speaker 1: We have more downloads before one pm kick off this
46:27
Speaker 1: past Sunday than any show we've done all year, eleven
46:30
Speaker 1: weeks into the season, after a losing week, and you
46:33
Speaker 1: want to tell the good people listen to the show
46:35
Speaker 1: to bet the Eagles at plus five. Yeah, this is
46:39
Speaker 1: big ball. Has been the week. We talked last week.
46:44
Speaker 1: We love the Eagles. Still think it was a smart side.
46:47
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz gave up nine points himself. He sucks, You're right,
46:52
Speaker 1: I was wrong. He has moments of brilliance where he
46:55
Speaker 1: looks at the top five quarterback and in his other
46:57
Speaker 1: moments where he looks like a first year starter. But
47:01
Speaker 1: Seahawks coming across country after a big win, prime time game,
47:06
Speaker 1: everyone in the world's gonna have this number tease down.
47:08
Speaker 1: Everyone's gonna have the money Line in their part lays,
47:11
Speaker 1: I love the Eagles. This is such a smart side.
47:14
Speaker 1: How do they not cover this number? There should be
47:17
Speaker 1: three at worst? And I know you hate it, but
47:22
Speaker 1: like you have to take the egos here, especially the
47:24
Speaker 1: fact I don't I don't even know if you said
47:26
Speaker 1: all the money. I'm assuming it's gonna be coming in
47:27
Speaker 1: on the Seahawks, all the things. Literally, it's like, yeah,
47:34
Speaker 1: so this is just another classic Vegas as a read,
47:39
Speaker 1: they hang this number low like this so people would
47:42
Speaker 1: be teasing it moneylining it. I love the Eagles this weekend.
47:46
Speaker 1: As long as it stays above three, I'm happy to
47:48
Speaker 1: take the Eagles, all right. So, as usual, we have
47:52
Speaker 1: um about seven games that we will be thinking about
47:57
Speaker 1: that we will text about on Sunday morning. So reminder,
48:01
Speaker 1: everybody go follow at Simon Hunter in the Action Network gap.
48:05
Speaker 1: You'll be able to see what we lock in. Also,
48:09
Speaker 1: go sign up Action network dot com get a Black
48:12
Speaker 1: Friday special for access to everything. We have. Everything we have,
48:20
Speaker 1: go get it Action Network dot Com. Go sign up
48:23
Speaker 1: right now. We like Washington plus three. We like the
48:28
Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings. Any Lizzo fans, uh, we like the Minnesota Vikings,
48:36
Speaker 1: at minus four. Um, we like the Falcons at plus three.
48:43
Speaker 1: We like the Cards at minus two and a half.
48:46
Speaker 1: We like the Niners of plus seven, We like the
48:49
Speaker 1: Bucks at three and a half plus three and a half,
48:52
Speaker 1: we like the Eagles plus five. And by we, I
48:54
Speaker 1: mean you. Um, But I do think this is a
48:58
Speaker 1: I think we've got a couple of like why Washington,
49:01
Speaker 1: Minnesota in Atlanta. I feel like we we feel very
49:06
Speaker 1: confident about those. Yeah, those are smart sides, and uh,
49:11
Speaker 1: we'll do my survivor pill. So, like I said, every
49:14
Speaker 1: pick I've me is the same one except last week.
49:16
Speaker 1: So I already used Miami, so I can't use them
49:18
Speaker 1: against the Jets again. This is a hard week Survivor contest.
49:22
Speaker 1: I got the Rams I can use or I got Buffalo,
49:25
Speaker 1: and both are scary. Both are like the we're hitting
49:30
Speaker 1: that point of the season. We've gotta start taking these
49:32
Speaker 1: teams and make you uncomfortable. And I don't know, we're
49:36
Speaker 1: like just looking at a first glance, I really can't
49:39
Speaker 1: see the Bills dropping this one at home, and this
49:41
Speaker 1: feels like a good time to use them. Well, listen,
49:44
Speaker 1: you're going against everything Matt Mitchell believes in, which is happiness.
49:49
Speaker 1: That's true. That would be very our podcast on form
49:52
Speaker 1: if we get knocked that one Survival contos last week
49:54
Speaker 1: and get knocked another one the following week. I'm with you,
49:56
Speaker 1: though I don't disagree. I think the Bills are probably
49:58
Speaker 1: the right side there. The Charger is like, let's not
50:00
Speaker 1: get caught up in the fact they beat the uh
50:04
Speaker 1: they beat the New York Jets by six points. Um,
50:07
Speaker 1: just not that big of a win. Yeah, they're just like, like,
50:12
Speaker 1: we're just after Like the Bills are established team, were
50:14
Speaker 1: the Charges. They're an up and coming team. So that's
50:16
Speaker 1: why I just like this number a lot. As Matt
50:19
Speaker 1: Mitchell knows. And this really earns me the appreciation of
50:21
Speaker 1: everybody I work with it Action Network. You don't get
50:24
Speaker 1: any fucking credit for doing your fucking job. Chad Millman
50:28
Speaker 1: is proud of himself. And that's what the Chargers did.
50:31
Speaker 1: They did their job. That's true. Guess what time it is.
50:34
Speaker 1: It's time to reveal our winner of the phrase that pays.
50:38
Speaker 1: And I feel so bad about it, Like, you know,
50:40
Speaker 1: we're trying to give away money here, but it's tied
50:42
Speaker 1: to our performance times and oh my god, I feel terrible.
50:48
Speaker 1: Just terrible about it. Uh. Last week we as fans
50:52
Speaker 1: to rate review the podcast. Those who did and use
50:54
Speaker 1: the winning phrase in their review were eligible to win
50:56
Speaker 1: up to five hundred dollars. Sadly they're only winning a hundred.
50:59
Speaker 1: We loads and loads of reviews. Thank you for that.
51:02
Speaker 1: In a second we will reveal the winner, but reminder
51:06
Speaker 1: we are going to bring back the phrase the pays,
51:08
Speaker 1: as we are doing every single week through the end
51:10
Speaker 1: of the season. This week's winner uh, let's see, we'll
51:15
Speaker 1: win a hundred dollars For every win Simon and I
51:18
Speaker 1: have in this week's contest, we will match that number
51:22
Speaker 1: with a donation to the winner's charity. Go great and
51:25
Speaker 1: review the podcast using the phrase Simon says, don't get emotional,
51:30
Speaker 1: and Matt Mitchell will randomly choose the winner to get
51:32
Speaker 1: that cash. Um and listen. Before we get to the winner,
51:37
Speaker 1: we do have an apology because we did have complaints
51:40
Speaker 1: about our Queen's gambit confo and sort of the mini
51:44
Speaker 1: spoiler we gave away. Matt Mitchell has a public apology
51:47
Speaker 1: to make Yes podcast listeners. It's my job to listen
51:51
Speaker 1: to clear and present dangers like that spoiler for individuals
51:56
Speaker 1: like myself, who have not seen such a popular show
51:59
Speaker 1: that's taken pop culture by storm. I heard it. I
52:03
Speaker 1: owed it to you, the listener, to either bleep that
52:05
Speaker 1: or to issue an explicit spoiler alert morning. I did neither.
52:09
Speaker 1: It was my my Brandon Bostek on site check for
52:13
Speaker 1: the for the packers. I fucked everything up. So I
52:15
Speaker 1: apologize and I won't let it happen again. You guys
52:18
Speaker 1: are so soft. We did not spoil a single thing.
52:21
Speaker 1: Get the hell out of here. You guys ruined this
52:24
Speaker 1: famous show we're gonna watch. We really didn't. Jesus man. Well,
52:28
Speaker 1: people just want to complain, Simon, don't alienate the listeners.
52:32
Speaker 1: It's rule number one in media. If I taught you nothing,
52:34
Speaker 1: if I taught you nothing in the past five months,
52:37
Speaker 1: I still have my soul. I'm not immediate yet, so
52:39
Speaker 1: I can call out these soft people. That the softest
52:42
Speaker 1: thing you're like. You're like one of those announcers in
52:44
Speaker 1: the booth who life starts complaining about the media without
52:46
Speaker 1: recognizing their the media. Yeah, that's true, alright. The winner
52:50
Speaker 1: of last week's contest is their name. The name of
52:53
Speaker 1: the reviewer is Daniel. Daniel did not put on his
52:56
Speaker 1: last name, but he goes by sprints sp R I
53:00
Speaker 1: n t Z one. Daniel, please reach out to Matt
53:04
Speaker 1: dot Mitchell at Action network dot com for your prize
53:08
Speaker 1: and to give us your charity. Here is his review,
53:12
Speaker 1: using the phrase the pace. Simon says every point counts.
53:16
Speaker 1: He also says that Chad is the nerd on the pod.
53:20
Speaker 1: Then he goes into an extensive story about his chess
53:24
Speaker 1: club days and the thrill of the game. Let's be real,
53:29
Speaker 1: you two are a couple of nerds and we love
53:33
Speaker 1: you for this. Oh and my bankroll loves you for
53:37
Speaker 1: this as well. Daniel. It's lovely. Yeah that was that
53:40
Speaker 1: was facts. Everyone's got a little nerd in him. But yeah,
53:43
Speaker 1: I got a little bit of nerd. I mean I
53:44
Speaker 1: work with numbers all day, every day. Nerd alert. All right,
53:48
Speaker 1: this has been our show. This has been the favorites
53:51
Speaker 1: from the Action Network guy. I'm Chad Nolman. He is
53:54
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter. Download the podcast from Apple, podcast, from Spotify,
53:58
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast. Until next time, wishing you
54:03
Speaker 1: all a very happy Thanksgiving. Simon and I are very
54:06
Speaker 1: thankful for you. We're thankful for Matt Mitchell. Until next time,
54:11
Speaker 1: Who love you h h