Latest / The Productivity Podcast with Fexingo: Output, Efficiency, and Long-Term Economic Growth / How South Korea Built the World's Fastest Productivity Growth
Transcript
- Lucas: South Korea today is one of the most productive economies in the world. But in 1960, its GDP per capita was roughly equal to that of Ghana. Luna: And now it's a high-income country, a leader in semiconductors, shipbuilding, and steel. That's a staggering leap. Lucas: Exactly. And the question is, how did they do it? There's a lot of mythology around the 'Miracle on the Han River,' but the actual policy choices are quite specific. I want to focus on one period: the early 1970s, when the government launched the Heavy and Chemical Industry drive. Luna: Right, that was under President Park Chung-hee. It was a deliberate pivot from light manufacturing — textiles, wigs, that kind of thing — into capital-intensive industries. Lucas: Exactly. And the scale of intervention is remarkable. The government didn't just set targets. It controlled the banking system, so it could direct credit to specific firms at below-market interest rates. It also created state-owned enterprises in steel and petrochemicals. Luna: Wasn't POSCO the big one? The steel company? Lucas: Yes. POSCO was founded in 1968 entirely with government capital and foreign loans. By the 1980s, it was one of the most efficient steel producers in the world. The key was that the government didn't just build it and leave it. They brought in foreign technology — from Japan, from Europe — and they forced domestic firms to compete on export markets. Luna: So it was protectionist on the domestic side but very open on the export side. That's a different mix than, say, import-substitution policies in Latin America at the time. Lucas: Exactly. Latin American countries also had industrial policy, but they protected domestic markets without forcing firms to export. South Korea did both. If you wanted cheap credit, you had to meet export targets. That created a discipline that kept firms efficient. Luna: And the chaebol — Samsung, Hyundai, LG — they emerged from this period. They were the chosen instruments of the policy. Lucas: Right. The government picked winners and gave them preferential loans. But it also punished them if they underperformed. There's a famous story about Hyundai's first shipyard: they built it without any experience in shipbuilding, but the government backed the loans, and eventually they became the world's largest shipbuilder. Luna: But that model also created vulnerabilities. The chaebol became highly leveraged, and by the 1990s, the economy was carrying a lot of debt. Lucas: That's the shadow side. The Heavy and Chemical Industry drive boosted productivity enormously in the 1970s and 1980s. Total factor productivity growth was among the highest in the world. But by the mid-1990s, returns on capital were falling, and the system was ripe for a crisis. Luna: Which came in 1997. The Asian Financial Crisis hit South Korea hard. GDP contracted by more than five percent in 1998. Lucas: And that forced a restructuring. The government had to dismantle some of the dirigiste apparatus — open the capital account, let weak chaebol fail, clean up the banks. But here's the thing: the productivity gains from the earlier period gave the economy a strong base. Recovery was fast, and growth resumed. Luna: So the question is, could another country replicate this? Would it work today, given the WTO rules and a less forgiving global environment? Lucas: It's harder. South Korea benefited from being a latecomer — it could adopt existing technologies from more advanced economies. That's a lot easier than being at the frontier. Plus, the Cold War context gave the US strategic reasons to support South Korea with market access and aid. Luna: Still, there are lessons. The combination of state direction and export discipline is a specific recipe. It's not just 'free markets' or 'state planning' — it's a hybrid. Lucas: And one that required strong institutions — a competent bureaucracy, a credible commitment to exports, and a willingness to let firms fail when they didn't perform. That's hard to replicate. Luna: You know, it's interesting. We spend a lot of time on this show talking about small productivity hacks or company-level efficiency. But episodes like this remind me that the biggest productivity gains have come from big structural shifts. Lucas: Absolutely. And those structural shifts require investment — in education, in infrastructure, in technology. That's true for a country and it's true for a podcast. Luna: Speaking of which, if you find these long-term economic stories valuable, there's a small way you can help keep the show going. Lucas: We keep the podcast ad-free because we think that's the best experience for listeners. If you'd like to support that, you can buy us a coffee at buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. Luna: It's a simple way to help us keep digging into these topics. And now, back to the productivity lesson. Lucas: So where does South Korea go from here? Since 2000, productivity growth has slowed. It's now closer to the OECD average. The easy catch-up is done. Luna: And they face demographic headwinds. One of the lowest birth rates in the world, an aging population. Lucas: Right. So the next phase requires innovation at the frontier, not just adoption. That's a different challenge. And it's one that every advanced economy is grappling with. Luna: But the South Korean case shows that rapid productivity growth is possible. It's not a given, but it's achievable with the right policies. Lucas: Exactly. And that's a hopeful note to end on. Thanks for listening.