Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 11 Gambling Preview
Transcript
- 0:08Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
- 0:13Speaker 1: I and Chad moment, it is Tuesday. I am joined
- 0:18Speaker 1: as I am every Tuesday, by my BFF, my companion,
- 0:22Speaker 1: my capadre professional better Simon Hunter. Dude, dude, dude, dude. Finally,
- 0:35Speaker 1: remember how last week for the show on Tuesday, I said, like,
- 0:41Speaker 1: there was a moment on Tuesday morning where I was
- 0:44Speaker 1: just dreading that we were going to have to do
- 0:47Speaker 1: the podcast. We were gonna have to talk about what
- 0:49Speaker 1: a bad run we were on, how hard this season
- 0:52Speaker 1: has been, especially the past four weeks, how we're just
- 0:55Speaker 1: like not in tune. But then we came on, we
- 0:59Speaker 1: talked about it, we got through it, it worked out,
- 1:01Speaker 1: We addressed our pain, we confronted the agony. Yesterday I
- 1:04Speaker 1: was walking my dog thinking about the week. I'm like, oh, Tuesday,
- 1:07Speaker 1: we do the podcast. Ah. We went four in one
- 1:10Speaker 1: this week. We went for in one this week with
- 1:14Speaker 1: nary As Sweat. We had the Panthers, the Washington Football team,
- 1:19Speaker 1: Carolina Dallas Dallas, the Panthers, Washington football team, and Dallas
- 1:24Speaker 1: Runaways the Saints. We had them at plus three close
- 1:28Speaker 1: plus two. That was a little bit of a sweat,
- 1:30Speaker 1: but it also felt a little bit inevitable, like the
- 1:33Speaker 1: Titans had some flukey plays in there that got them
- 1:35Speaker 1: with the scores they needed. And then the Saints were
- 1:37Speaker 1: sort of running it up and down the way we
- 1:39Speaker 1: thought they would, and then we got blown out with
- 1:41Speaker 1: the Raiders. I kind of blame you. We wanted to
- 1:44Speaker 1: go with the Niners. You're like, no, let's just be
- 1:46Speaker 1: downe Sunday. So let's take the Raiders. We should have
- 1:48Speaker 1: taken the Niners. We could have been five and oh,
- 1:51Speaker 1: nice job, Simon. But all in all, like dude, I
- 1:55Speaker 1: just tried to keep you away. I needed that Niners one.
- 1:57Speaker 1: That was one of my bigger bets. I told you,
- 2:00Speaker 1: oh god, a six figure bet. If I wasn't such
- 2:03Speaker 1: a coward, Simon Hunter, professional coward, your mush chat, you
- 2:08Speaker 1: mush things. So I was just like, I just let
- 2:11Speaker 1: me just get this one. All I need to get
- 2:13Speaker 1: this one. Get back. I'm fucking Bush. By the way,
- 2:17Speaker 1: I'm mush Who's the one who said, hey, let's make
- 2:20Speaker 1: sure we don't take the Jets, let's take Dallas. I did.
- 2:23Speaker 1: Who's the one who said, we've loved We've loved Carolina
- 2:26Speaker 1: all week? Let's make sure we take Carolina. I did.
- 2:29Speaker 1: Don't give me your even Carolina's money line. Do you
- 2:31Speaker 1: get like Carolina's money line. You're a guy with points
- 2:33Speaker 1: over here, You're a point guy. Listen to me. I'm
- 2:36Speaker 1: talking about the choices we made on Sunday after convinced me.
- 2:40Speaker 1: Do not come to me like I'm mush when I'm
- 2:43Speaker 1: the one willingly betting the big favorite of the Cowboys
- 2:46Speaker 1: and knowing it's the right side, sticking to our guns. Yeah,
- 2:51Speaker 1: the best weeks are the ones you can book ended
- 2:53Speaker 1: with dogs. So we literally opened the week up with
- 2:55Speaker 1: Miami and we end the week on the nine. That's
- 2:58Speaker 1: the best. It's just so many good money line bets.
- 3:01Speaker 1: I think the the round robin, I'll to check my ticket,
- 3:05Speaker 1: but I'm pretty sure Carolina and was a football team.
- 3:09Speaker 1: It was thirty two to one money line parlay, So
- 3:12Speaker 1: that was that's that's Those are the good ones. Yeah,
- 3:16Speaker 1: maybe once or twice a year you get those ones.
- 3:18Speaker 1: And I was killing myself because we missed the week
- 3:20Speaker 1: before where I knew there was something fish about those lines.
- 3:23Speaker 1: Last weekend, like you talked about, there weren't big dogs
- 3:25Speaker 1: like winning out right. I've kind of been burned a
- 3:27Speaker 1: little bit this season with it, but we're seeing it now.
- 3:30Speaker 1: This is uh, it's on a historical pace, honestly, all
- 3:33Speaker 1: all these underdogs covering and winning out right. I think
- 3:36Speaker 1: it's fifty eight or fift this season dogs have covered.
- 3:39Speaker 1: So it's it's crazy it's been this way and we
- 3:43Speaker 1: haven't been killing it. So I'm I'm glad we got
- 3:45Speaker 1: back on track where it's like, what what was happening
- 3:47Speaker 1: all those weeks? I don't know. It's going through a
- 3:49Speaker 1: lot of stuff, but obviously last week had a little trip,
- 3:53Speaker 1: came back clearheaded, and not that we were seeing the
- 3:56Speaker 1: board super clear, but just looking at me and you
- 3:58Speaker 1: talked about that that Cowboys game the Panthers game. Those
- 4:01Speaker 1: are two lines early stuck out where it was like,
- 4:03Speaker 1: this is crazy, this, this is such a last week.
- 4:06Speaker 1: People are betting on what happened the week before. Let's
- 4:08Speaker 1: capitalize on this week. What's gonna happen this upcoming slate?
- 4:12Speaker 1: So that Cowboys one was insane. I think it was
- 4:14Speaker 1: what forty three to six. So we take a favorite
- 4:18Speaker 1: like that and they blow it out like that, That's
- 4:20Speaker 1: that's a great feeling. I was thinking about you. It's
- 4:22Speaker 1: Tuesday afternoon. Like I said, I was thinking about you
- 4:25Speaker 1: on last night watching the Niners game, realizing that this
- 4:30Speaker 1: m that you were a little anxious and so you
- 4:34Speaker 1: didn't go all in on this. It was gonna be
- 4:36Speaker 1: one of your three or four big, big big bets
- 4:38Speaker 1: of the year. You've done for this season. I should
- 4:41Speaker 1: done for the year. I hate it now. I knew
- 4:43Speaker 1: it too, and like again, I bet it. I'll put
- 4:46Speaker 1: a decent amount on it, but like nowhere near what
- 4:49Speaker 1: I make my big bets. So that's what the worst
- 4:51Speaker 1: for the game started. It was fourteen nothing. I just
- 4:53Speaker 1: was getting the Colts flashbacks and I was like, oh
- 4:55Speaker 1: my god, I've been here before. But luckily that was
- 4:59Speaker 1: just your class. A Monday night primetime game. Everyone doesn't
- 5:02Speaker 1: believe in one team. Everyone loves the other team. And
- 5:05Speaker 1: now as we sit here on Tuesday, I feel like
- 5:07Speaker 1: everyone hates the Rams, which is just that's why I
- 5:09Speaker 1: love football. It's so week the week people make these
- 5:11Speaker 1: uh we'll talk about these upcoming lines. There's a lot
- 5:14Speaker 1: of lines you can just tell this week. They're just
- 5:16Speaker 1: heavily inflated just because of what happened over the weekend.
- 5:19Speaker 1: All right, We're going to get to Scoot Rouette. Last week,
- 5:22Speaker 1: I had the Washington football team. I want you had
- 5:25Speaker 1: the Saints. I want carries Over so I will get
- 5:28Speaker 1: to choose first um on the year. I am two
- 5:33Speaker 1: and one. You are two and one, two and one,
- 5:37Speaker 1: two and one. But like I said, carries Over, we're
- 5:41Speaker 1: both two and one. Let's get to it, man, Let's
- 5:43Speaker 1: do the full slate. Will boil it down on Thursday.
- 5:45Speaker 1: We'll review the games that we think are getting tighter
- 5:48Speaker 1: based on market and research and everything else that we're hearing.
- 5:52Speaker 1: First game up, first, came up, first, came up, all
- 5:55Speaker 1: of a sudden, All of a sudden, exactly what we're
- 5:58Speaker 1: talking about. Newing Glynn Patriots at Atlanta Falcons Patriots with
- 6:04Speaker 1: Mac Jones that you can't stand. You continue to not
- 6:06Speaker 1: believe even though he all Matt Jones does win and
- 6:09Speaker 1: throw darts. He wakes up, he wins, he throws darts,
- 6:14Speaker 1: and apparently his brother and his name's Will, is a
- 6:16Speaker 1: fan of our show and he is the same feeling
- 6:18Speaker 1: you have, Chad. He's apparently thinks I'm a hater, and
- 6:20Speaker 1: then I hate on his brother, not at all. I
- 6:23Speaker 1: just I wasn't believing what I was seeing. Yeah, that
- 6:26Speaker 1: was unreal. He looked like Brady seriously in that game.
- 6:29Speaker 1: He was dropping dimes all over the field. He was incredible.
- 6:32Speaker 1: So I gotta eat some crow for that one. I
- 6:34Speaker 1: was Mac Mac was on it, but lucky. I bet
- 6:36Speaker 1: the Patriots. I don't. I don't feel too bad about it.
- 6:38Speaker 1: Love this love love love love this matchup here walking
- 6:42Speaker 1: into a Thursday. I as soon as I saw this
- 6:45Speaker 1: line open, I knew it was gonna bet up, so
- 6:46Speaker 1: I didn't even touch it. Got the seven seven and
- 6:49Speaker 1: a half at some off shore books Atlanta. You know
- 6:52Speaker 1: the drill Chad, we wet. You've been down this road
- 6:55Speaker 1: too many times in Atlanta. They kill it one week,
- 6:58Speaker 1: they fall apart the next week, and now they're back again.
- 7:00Speaker 1: Everyone's off this line. I think it was like four
- 7:03Speaker 1: or three. Now it's all up to seven seven and
- 7:05Speaker 1: a half. I mean, what else can we do here?
- 7:07Speaker 1: Home dog getting no money, no bets? Every time chat
- 7:11Speaker 1: we take at landa here can't stop, won't stop. Cordell
- 7:14Speaker 1: Parterson might be out a little scary with that. Cor
- 7:17Speaker 1: Darryl Patterson, Grandpa, Here's what I would say. There was
- 7:20Speaker 1: once David Fleming, who's a writer at ESPN the magazine,
- 7:24Speaker 1: longtime reporter covering the NFL. He and I shared an
- 7:28Speaker 1: office together at Sports Illustrated in the early nineties. That's
- 7:32Speaker 1: how long we go back. I was the NFL editor
- 7:35Speaker 1: at the ESPN, the magazine he had moved over. We
- 7:37Speaker 1: had both moved over from Asia to ESPN, the magazine.
- 7:40Speaker 1: He was writing. He was assigned a feature story about
- 7:42Speaker 1: Carson Palmer. One of the great quotes that a receiver
- 7:47Speaker 1: relayed to Dave about Carson Palmer, who was so accurate.
- 7:51Speaker 1: This reminds me of Mac Jones. When they were designing
- 7:55Speaker 1: the play. The question Carson Palmer asked the receiver was
- 8:01Speaker 1: which nipple? Meaning which nipple do you want the ball
- 8:05Speaker 1: to be on? If you're running a field, you want
- 8:07Speaker 1: on your outside nipple, you're inside nipple. That's how specific
- 8:11Speaker 1: he could be about where he knew he could drop
- 8:14Speaker 1: the ball. That's Mac Jones right now. He's a which
- 8:17Speaker 1: nipple quarterback. Just sal chats about Mac Jones. People. This
- 8:21Speaker 1: is why you're bet in Atlanta. Come Thursday. Everyone is
- 8:23Speaker 1: drinking the kool a. They're all in on Mac Jones
- 8:26Speaker 1: if they win this game. On a short week after
- 8:28Speaker 1: a big win like that, I might have to start
- 8:30Speaker 1: looking at pictures the top three team they have City
- 8:32Speaker 1: and I don't want to believe it because it's a
- 8:34Speaker 1: rookie quarterback and I feel like a lot of things
- 8:37Speaker 1: are just going their way right now. But this is
- 8:39Speaker 1: a huge, huge, huge test. You're taking a rookie quarterback
- 8:42Speaker 1: on a short week on the road against a team
- 8:44Speaker 1: that just got blown out on the road coming home
- 8:47Speaker 1: in Atlanta. Atlanta should win this game out right, I
- 8:50Speaker 1: mean not had attend times. So if the Patriots can
- 8:53Speaker 1: show up in this game and win it and cover
- 8:56Speaker 1: the spread as well, I might have to really look
- 8:58Speaker 1: at my position this Patriots team, because they might be
- 9:01Speaker 1: for real. Uh let's say classic classic spot to take
- 9:07Speaker 1: it later, like even the fact that I had this
- 9:10Speaker 1: number made at four and now it's up to seven
- 9:12Speaker 1: and even more reason I love it, but just taking
- 9:14Speaker 1: that number away, just looking at this as a pro,
- 9:17Speaker 1: I know every professional I know will be on elane
- 9:19Speaker 1: in this position. It feels like a contest play just
- 9:22Speaker 1: saying it, that's fair. I agree with you. I also
- 9:25Speaker 1: feel like if Will Jones mac Jones brother really listens
- 9:29Speaker 1: to this show, then come Thanksgiving, when he is sitting
- 9:32Speaker 1: down with his brother and all of their collective family
- 9:36Speaker 1: for turkey dinner, he's got to go to his brother
- 9:40Speaker 1: and say, what's up. Nipple. That's going to be the
- 9:43Speaker 1: nickname he calls him from now on. That's what I
- 9:45Speaker 1: want Will Jones to do. And then I wanted to
- 9:47Speaker 1: reach out. You me, Matt Mitchell, I don't care, just
- 9:49Speaker 1: reach out. Let us know that he did it. I
- 9:51Speaker 1: will be right with the world. Go birds on Thursday
- 9:55Speaker 1: plus seven contest bing Bong. You didn't hear his nickname
- 10:02Speaker 1: Mac Jones. They're calling on Mac and Cheat Cheat? Why
- 10:07Speaker 1: because he Everyone thinks he's a dirty player, because the
- 10:11Speaker 1: whole thing because he was holding that Guys, let come on,
- 10:14Speaker 1: I'm just telling you what the people are saying on
- 10:15Speaker 1: Reddit chat. People are haters. Fucking Reddit people are people
- 10:19Speaker 1: are haters on Reddit. They're haters of success. They want
- 10:23Speaker 1: to call him Mac and Cheat. It's because he's a
- 10:26Speaker 1: freaking cheat code man, just because he's a Patriot. I'm like,
- 10:29Speaker 1: I like the Patriots. I have one money on them
- 10:31Speaker 1: over the last twenty years. But the talk about the Patriots,
- 10:34Speaker 1: I feel like that's what you just gotta do in life.
- 10:36Speaker 1: It's fun. I gotta do it. Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears.
- 10:44Speaker 1: The Chicago Bears off of the bye and the Ravens
- 10:49Speaker 1: are realing plus six and a half. I need to
- 10:52Speaker 1: know if Rokuan Smith is playing, is Clil Macplane like,
- 10:55Speaker 1: are all these guys back? I don't know anything yet,
- 10:58Speaker 1: damn it so that maybe we'll talk on Thursday then,
- 11:00Speaker 1: But this is if those guys are back, your run
- 11:03Speaker 1: sufferers are back, automatic play, You're on the Bears at home.
- 11:08Speaker 1: I know the stats. Naggy as a big dog has
- 11:11Speaker 1: been terrible. He like lose. I think that Pittsburgh cover
- 11:14Speaker 1: was the first one he's had as a big dog
- 11:16Speaker 1: and like six games. So we'll come back this one Thursday.
- 11:19Speaker 1: But as we sit here on Tuesday, I'm thinking I'll
- 11:21Speaker 1: be on the Bears. I just need to know what
- 11:23Speaker 1: guys are in and what guys are out. Maybe I
- 11:25Speaker 1: won't put the Bears because I don't want to push
- 11:26Speaker 1: it for you. You can mush away. It's your own Bears.
- 11:31Speaker 1: Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans. I've got a specific thought
- 11:36Speaker 1: about this. Tyrod Taylor was terrible in his first game back.
- 11:41Speaker 1: He needed to get acclimated. He's a better quarterback than
- 11:45Speaker 1: he showed in that game. Ten and a half points
- 11:48Speaker 1: for the Titans, who continue to ride a wave of
- 11:52Speaker 1: kind of getting away with it. They're getting the right bounces.
- 11:56Speaker 1: I'm just not a believer, Like, I don't see this
- 11:58Speaker 1: team being an eight and two team that is worthy
- 12:01Speaker 1: of the eight wins or the accolades of the points
- 12:04Speaker 1: that it's getting. I'd go ugly here. Simon says, take
- 12:08Speaker 1: that ten and a half. Diamonds says, baby, we are
- 12:11Speaker 1: taking the Texans. Sprinkle it on that money line too
- 12:25Speaker 1: on Tuesday, because I think the line's gonna come down
- 12:27Speaker 1: to like when we do our round robin Thursday show,
- 12:29Speaker 1: I feel like we're gonna lose a little bit of
- 12:31Speaker 1: the value that you would get today. So everything you
- 12:34Speaker 1: just said, I'm dead right there with you. That's the
- 12:37Speaker 1: worst part about these reps. I determine these games. They
- 12:39Speaker 1: took away an interception, gave a touchdown of Tennessee. Obviously
- 12:42Speaker 1: that stuck with the Saints the whole half. They come out,
- 12:45Speaker 1: they fumbled the kickoff, like so that's felt like it
- 12:47Speaker 1: was fourteen points given to them, and I want to
- 12:50Speaker 1: put too much on the ref because that's just the
- 12:51Speaker 1: worst flavoring thing. But man, I could not believe we
- 12:58Speaker 1: came back and got that cover. That was classic. Another
- 13:01Speaker 1: classic game where I told you, don't buy the half point,
- 13:04Speaker 1: just trust the number, trust the two and a half.
- 13:06Speaker 1: It landed on two, And that's that's why we don't
- 13:08Speaker 1: buy points. You're you're kind of again. It might save
- 13:11Speaker 1: your ass every now and then, but over the long term,
- 13:14Speaker 1: if you bet for fifty years that that big is
- 13:16Speaker 1: just gonna eat away at you, don't don't buy points.
- 13:18Speaker 1: I try to say this all the time. I know
- 13:20Speaker 1: people like that by to the like to buy to
- 13:23Speaker 1: the three or buy up to three and a half. Don't,
- 13:25Speaker 1: don't do it. Just the trust the books, trust the numbers.
- 13:28Speaker 1: Prime example, somehow the books knew that games don't get
- 13:31Speaker 1: the two, and it did, which was terrifying because it
- 13:33Speaker 1: was like all these different things were happening to get
- 13:36Speaker 1: even get to that number two. So sitting here again
- 13:39Speaker 1: with Tennessee, like Chad just talked about, we we want
- 13:42Speaker 1: to fade them there. Everything is going their way. This
- 13:45Speaker 1: Houston team is coming off of bye. I know statistically
- 13:47Speaker 1: this year a T S teams have been bad off buys.
- 13:51Speaker 1: I feel like everything you just said so right. Taylor
- 13:53Speaker 1: needed that extra time. He was just rusty in that
- 13:55Speaker 1: my name the game. So giving him more time, given
- 13:58Speaker 1: the given the time to the Houston team to get healthy.
- 14:00Speaker 1: Tennessee is not healthy. They have a lot of injuries
- 14:03Speaker 1: adding up. That's what's been Like, Yeah, as much I
- 14:06Speaker 1: want to basch Tennessee Titans, Tannehill on paper, like statistically
- 14:10Speaker 1: having an incredible season, one of the best players against
- 14:12Speaker 1: the blitz, one of the best players against double coverage.
- 14:15Speaker 1: Like everything he's doing is really really smart this season.
- 14:18Speaker 1: So it's it's a fair number, but I just think
- 14:21Speaker 1: you're getting too much value. And a divisional matchup with
- 14:23Speaker 1: this Houson team at ten and a half, That's why
- 14:24Speaker 1: I want you to take it now, because I think
- 14:26Speaker 1: it's good down to ten and put a little bit
- 14:28Speaker 1: on the money line, little taste, a little sprinkle. One
- 14:32Speaker 1: of our best UH tweeters, Um who d ms me often.
- 14:38Speaker 1: I've mentioned him on the show before, John Doe d
- 14:41Speaker 1: o H Like, don't you know, Um he listens to
- 14:47Speaker 1: the show and he was sort of giving us feedback
- 14:49Speaker 1: on and he's he's like dude, I feel like he
- 14:53Speaker 1: might be a content savant. Uh. And he was giving
- 14:57Speaker 1: us feedback on how we're we're betting this year and
- 15:00Speaker 1: how we're explaining it, and he was very smart. He said,
- 15:04Speaker 1: you guys focus so much on the numbers and like
- 15:06Speaker 1: getting the point and a half, getting the half point,
- 15:08Speaker 1: getting whatever, and it hasn't mattered at all for you
- 15:11Speaker 1: this year. Just bet the games you like. And it's
- 15:14Speaker 1: a little bit like what you were just saying, don't
- 15:17Speaker 1: worry about getting the best of the number, which is
- 15:19Speaker 1: an axiom that we really should follow. In this case,
- 15:23Speaker 1: we weren't getting the three, we had the two and
- 15:24Speaker 1: a half, we weren't trying to hedge out of it,
- 15:27Speaker 1: and it all worked out in our favor. We are
- 15:29Speaker 1: so smart. Speaking of the Saints, New Orleans Saints at
- 15:34Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles, speaking of the Saints that are one and
- 15:38Speaker 1: a half point underdogs, this one feels a little bit
- 15:41Speaker 1: like a trap. The Saints. I think we're the better
- 15:43Speaker 1: team against the Titans. The Saints can be the better
- 15:46Speaker 1: team against the Eagles. I think their defense is better.
- 15:49Speaker 1: I think they're coaching is better. It's weird to me
- 15:52Speaker 1: that the Saints are the dogs here just because the
- 15:56Speaker 1: Eagles had one good win against a mediocre team. But
- 16:01Speaker 1: all the pics, all the money on the Saints right now,
- 16:03Speaker 1: what am I missing? I'm walking into the trap. I
- 16:07Speaker 1: guess with the public that I like the Saints in
- 16:09Speaker 1: this matchup. It's simple fact. I tell you, if Sean
- 16:12Speaker 1: Payne is an underdog, I bet him. He's been really
- 16:14Speaker 1: good to me as an underdog. UM covered last week
- 16:17Speaker 1: again as a road underdog. I had to keep going
- 16:20Speaker 1: back to the well and taking Payton as an underdog.
- 16:22Speaker 1: So Egel's coming off a huge win on the road
- 16:25Speaker 1: now coming home feeling good. Eagles have not played well
- 16:28Speaker 1: at home. I don't even think that covered this year
- 16:30Speaker 1: at home. Uh oh wait, they did against Tampa, so
- 16:32Speaker 1: they have one cover so far this season at home.
- 16:34Speaker 1: This Saints team, to me, this is like you just
- 16:38Speaker 1: talked about. Feel like this is such an advantage for
- 16:40Speaker 1: head coaching matchups. We have Sean Payne against this really
- 16:43Speaker 1: bad Eagles defense, and I felt like last week was more.
- 16:48Speaker 1: You know, Eagles got right with running the ball. I
- 16:51Speaker 1: don't really think you can do that against the Saints team.
- 16:53Speaker 1: That's one of the things that are really good at
- 16:54Speaker 1: I get the shutting down the run. So I'm going
- 16:57Speaker 1: against my pro brethren. I'm taking some chalk here and
- 16:59Speaker 1: I'll the Saints. I don't know that you are something
- 17:03Speaker 1: of Like it just makes no sense to me that
- 17:04Speaker 1: the Saints open as an underdog here, Like it can't
- 17:09Speaker 1: just be as simple as this is what the bookmakers
- 17:12Speaker 1: think the public saw last week with the Saints losing
- 17:14Speaker 1: to the Titans and the Eagles winning on the road.
- 17:17Speaker 1: It just doesn't make any sense to me. It's a
- 17:20Speaker 1: To me, it's a hundred percent of Saints play, almost
- 17:22Speaker 1: so obviously that I feel like, and what am I missing? Yeah,
- 17:25Speaker 1: and again I'm having them all like this is a
- 17:27Speaker 1: good number of having teasers too. He teases up the
- 17:29Speaker 1: seven and a half. That's why it's weird to give
- 17:31Speaker 1: me the one and a half, Like you could be right,
- 17:33Speaker 1: I could be walking right into a trap here, but
- 17:35Speaker 1: I gotta do it. This feels a good number. I
- 17:37Speaker 1: wonder if this ends up being one of our sharp calls, right,
- 17:41Speaker 1: I'll definitely begin calls about it, because I know a
- 17:43Speaker 1: couple of guys already took the Eagles and they're like,
- 17:45Speaker 1: you're on it, right, like you love them I'm just like,
- 17:47Speaker 1: I'm off. I'm not on them this week, So we'll
- 17:50Speaker 1: be interesting here. What who calls me out back for
- 17:52Speaker 1: the show, because I've only talked to one other guy
- 17:54Speaker 1: and that's who was really big on the Eagles this week.
- 17:56Speaker 1: Interesting again, people view them as a playoff team. So
- 17:59Speaker 1: if you're power rating all these teams in the NFC,
- 18:01Speaker 1: people power rate the Eagles pretty high up. That's why
- 18:03Speaker 1: again that line with the Chargers went down from three
- 18:06Speaker 1: to one before kickoff, just because professionals have empower rated
- 18:09Speaker 1: so high. What do you have this game? Power rated
- 18:12Speaker 1: at one? Saints? That's why it's weird, Like I'm getting
- 18:15Speaker 1: two and a half points right now. It's interesting. The
- 18:18Speaker 1: books hung it up this way, So that's why we'll
- 18:21Speaker 1: we'll revisit if it moves towards the Saints. Honestly feel
- 18:24Speaker 1: better because then at least I'll know a lot of
- 18:25Speaker 1: the professionals are coming on it, because right now I'm
- 18:27Speaker 1: just scared about how much pro money is coming in
- 18:29Speaker 1: on birds. Bird bird bird bird is the word Miami
- 18:35Speaker 1: Dolphins at New York Jets. The resurgent Miami Dolphins visiting
- 18:41Speaker 1: the New York Jets. The Dolphins are three point favorites
- 18:46Speaker 1: on the road. I mean, home dog, we have to
- 18:51Speaker 1: take the Jets. I don't know if this is gonna
- 18:52Speaker 1: be one of our five because it's so disgusting, but
- 18:56Speaker 1: I mean, come on, like the Miami hype train is
- 18:59Speaker 1: out of the road right now. They blew up and
- 19:01Speaker 1: killed that that Ravens team on Thursday night, like dominated them.
- 19:05Speaker 1: Their defense looked like we we thought they were gonna
- 19:08Speaker 1: be this year, a really dominant force Jets team. Mike
- 19:11Speaker 1: White turned back into a pumpkin guy through four interceptions
- 19:14Speaker 1: against Buffalo Bills. Just terrible. Uh, we'll see I again.
- 19:19Speaker 1: If it's Zack Wilson, maybe I'll feel a little better
- 19:22Speaker 1: because I did. I did like what White was doing.
- 19:25Speaker 1: But the problem with him is that you know, eventually
- 19:27Speaker 1: these defensive coarterers are going to figure him out, and
- 19:29Speaker 1: the Bills did and every way they were just literally
- 19:31Speaker 1: running mid midlevel zones and let him try to throw
- 19:34Speaker 1: it over top of these guys and he couldn't. He
- 19:36Speaker 1: just kept throwing it right into their bread basket. So
- 19:39Speaker 1: it's not ideal to take this number right now because
- 19:41Speaker 1: we don't know where the quarterback is. But if it's
- 19:43Speaker 1: Zack Wilson. This gets up to three and a half
- 19:45Speaker 1: from the three, I'll be taken. I'll be taking the
- 19:49Speaker 1: Jets here as at home, doog all right, So let's
- 19:50Speaker 1: wait and see. Let's wait and see. If the Jets
- 19:56Speaker 1: get to three and a half, it probably won't end
- 19:58Speaker 1: up being one of our father because there's other home dogs.
- 20:01Speaker 1: I'm gonna like better. But that's just that there's feels
- 20:04Speaker 1: like a pro line to me, like that's there's gonna
- 20:06Speaker 1: be no one else betting the Jets. Everyone's kind of
- 20:08Speaker 1: out on the Jets at this point. We're practically professionals
- 20:11Speaker 1: at least, right, yeah, almost, Indianapolis Cults at Buffalo Bills,
- 20:17Speaker 1: the Bills seven point favorites, doing exactly what we thought
- 20:22Speaker 1: they would. Just I know, you, like the jettice past week.
- 20:25Speaker 1: We didn't do it because I just felt like, this
- 20:27Speaker 1: is so predictably a blowout spot. You say, in hindsight,
- 20:34Speaker 1: the Bills make men listening, throw your hand on something,
- 20:39Speaker 1: throw your hand back and tall. Now the Bills, I'm
- 20:42Speaker 1: making it happen now, Cults plus seven, it's tricky, like
- 20:48Speaker 1: this is when you pound these matches when Chad doesn't
- 20:50Speaker 1: know what to do, and he's like, it's kind of gross.
- 20:52Speaker 1: I don't want to take it pound pound pound. The
- 20:55Speaker 1: Colts love, love, love this matchup. The Bills. Why they've
- 20:59Speaker 1: played two up twenty defenses. They played Pittsburgh, they lost.
- 21:03Speaker 1: They play Tennessee, they lost. Culture at top twenty defense
- 21:06Speaker 1: and a good defense better than Tennessee. Some could argue
- 21:09Speaker 1: even better than Pittsburgh, especially at this point in the season.
- 21:12Speaker 1: I love everything about this matchup. Calling for bad weather.
- 21:15Speaker 1: Living up here in the Northeast, we have a big storm.
- 21:17Speaker 1: Comment it's gonna drop the temperature by three degrees all
- 21:20Speaker 1: across the board. We got a cold game, maybe some
- 21:22Speaker 1: bad weather on Sunday in Buffalo. The best running back
- 21:26Speaker 1: of football right now is arguably Jonathan Taylor, the best
- 21:28Speaker 1: offensive line arguably in football, and now the Colts. Everything
- 21:32Speaker 1: just points to this Colds team. I made this line
- 21:34Speaker 1: three and a half. It's seven and a half at
- 21:36Speaker 1: some books right now. This Colds team love it. Take
- 21:38Speaker 1: give me the Colds. Give the Colts on the money line.
- 21:41Speaker 1: Such a bad spot for this Bills team. Matt Mitchell,
- 21:44Speaker 1: I want you to jump in here. You do your
- 21:46Speaker 1: team He's talking about in the Buffalo Bills. What do
- 21:49Speaker 1: you say as an opportunity to speak to another Action
- 21:53Speaker 1: Network property, which is the Action Network Podcast. Monday's episode
- 21:57Speaker 1: featured Brandon Anderson, one of our Nfox spirits that you love,
- 21:59Speaker 1: chat on that episode when they're looking ahead their hot
- 22:03Speaker 1: read segment to this week's lines. He mentioned that he
- 22:06Speaker 1: did not have Josh Allen as a top ten quarterback
- 22:10Speaker 1: right now, which is, you know, I think a totally
- 22:13Speaker 1: as nine point of view. But that's fine. I'm not
- 22:15Speaker 1: an NFL expert. I just I only have eyes to
- 22:18Speaker 1: watch football games. He also said that he believed right
- 22:22Speaker 1: now Carson Wentz and Josh Allen worth essentially interchangeable quarterbacks,
- 22:26Speaker 1: which I considered maybe trying to find a way to
- 22:29Speaker 1: get him fired right away for a take like that.
- 22:32Speaker 1: That's not it really in my purview, But I would
- 22:34Speaker 1: love to know, Simon if that is a opinion that
- 22:39Speaker 1: you share. No, no, no, no, Josh Allen, He's still
- 22:42Speaker 1: He's still top ten. It hasn't all been going right
- 22:45Speaker 1: this season, but that's not all on him. A lot
- 22:47Speaker 1: of it, though, is that the Carson Wentz argument is
- 22:50Speaker 1: tough because Carson has the flash. He has these moments
- 22:52Speaker 1: of being great, but he does such stupid crap. I
- 22:55Speaker 1: just don't think it's comparable. I still think Wentz is
- 22:57Speaker 1: maybe top fifteen, where I know for a fact, h
- 23:00Speaker 1: Allen and football right now is top ten, like maybe
- 23:02Speaker 1: three franchise would say not to getting Josh Allen. Like
- 23:05Speaker 1: you could argue he has top five going four, but
- 23:07Speaker 1: the way he's playing right now, I wouldn't put in
- 23:09Speaker 1: the top five because I'm with Brandon, He's he's had
- 23:11Speaker 1: a little bit hiccups here. I mean that that Jacks
- 23:14Speaker 1: game was I watched that game twice already. That was like,
- 23:17Speaker 1: you can't believe what's happened when you watched that game.
- 23:20Speaker 1: So it's more of a bet that this Bills team
- 23:22Speaker 1: just hasn't been what they were last year, and especially
- 23:25Speaker 1: against top twenty defenses this year, that's when they really struggled.
- 23:28Speaker 1: Now we have a cold team. It's a top ten defense.
- 23:30Speaker 1: This is just a perfect storm. You're getting a grood
- 23:33Speaker 1: number or undervalue team with an overhyped team and the
- 23:36Speaker 1: Bills and they're the bookmakers to me are giving you
- 23:39Speaker 1: four extra points. Josh Allen might not even be top
- 23:43Speaker 1: five in the a f C. I'm not even saying
- 23:45Speaker 1: that to troll you are Rotrick, Mahomes, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson,
- 23:52Speaker 1: Joe Burrow, Ryan Tannehill. Maybe I said he I said
- 23:55Speaker 1: he might not be top five. I said he's barely
- 23:57Speaker 1: top five. That's I would take him over Joe Burrow
- 23:59Speaker 1: in a heart I'd still take him over Lamar and
- 24:01Speaker 1: a heartbeat. Same podcast you're talking about, Matt Mitchell. Brandon
- 24:05Speaker 1: Anderson also said before the Titan Saints game, take a
- 24:09Speaker 1: flyer on Ryan Tannehill thirty five to one to win.
- 24:12Speaker 1: Hold on. I'm I'm talking Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson,
- 24:18Speaker 1: Ryan Tannehill, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray. I can't say Russell Wilson,
- 24:24Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, so eight. I just named eight.
- 24:29Speaker 1: Josh Allen would be nine or ten, depending on if
- 24:33Speaker 1: I include Russell Wilson. And you could argue, you know,
- 24:37Speaker 1: I'm not, I don't agree with it, but you could argue,
- 24:39Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford, I disagree, but it's very possible Josh Allen
- 24:44Speaker 1: is anywhere from eight to eleven. This is Josh Allen
- 24:51Speaker 1: was the first quarterback and nearly two and a half
- 24:53Speaker 1: years just this past week, the throw for over thirteen
- 24:57Speaker 1: yards an attempt in a full game. Josh Allen's played
- 24:59Speaker 1: essentially statistically an identical season this year to this point
- 25:03Speaker 1: last year, he is he doesn't make mistakes. Yeah, he's
- 25:05Speaker 1: a big dumb idiot with the dark be the eyes
- 25:08Speaker 1: of the shark. But it doesn't mean he's not the
- 25:10Speaker 1: top five for now. That's that was unreal him. Top five,
- 25:15Speaker 1: You're freak kidding me. Top five? Come on, Lamar Jackson,
- 25:20Speaker 1: the guy that got us his door was blown off
- 25:21Speaker 1: by the Dolphins, and the one who lost to Josh
- 25:23Speaker 1: Allen at home in the playoffs last year. That that,
- 25:26Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson. Fine, we all have our own opinions, so
- 25:31Speaker 1: we're gonna take the Colts. You know, it's interesting. I
- 25:33Speaker 1: watched the Manning Brothers cast last night of the Niners
- 25:37Speaker 1: Rams again. I love it. I think it's outstanding. I
- 25:39Speaker 1: was a little upset that they didn't ask Phil Nicholson
- 25:43Speaker 1: how much money he had actually lost combined on betting
- 25:46Speaker 1: against them in their Super Bowls. I thought that would
- 25:49Speaker 1: have been the most appropriate question, but Peyton tried so
- 25:52Speaker 1: hard to not say something mean about Jared Goff when
- 25:56Speaker 1: Phil Mickelson asked, why are the Rams better with Matthew
- 26:00Speaker 1: Stafford than Jared Goff, Poor Jared Goff. Detroit Lions at
- 26:05Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns? Do we dare take the Lions as ten
- 26:08Speaker 1: point dogs on the road against the Browns, needing a win,
- 26:12Speaker 1: being angry, needing to prove it with that god real quick? Though,
- 26:16Speaker 1: have you seen the Curse of the Manning cast? Have
- 26:18Speaker 1: you seen this? They talked about it all last night.
- 26:21Speaker 1: So yeah, So if you're listening to the show tonight,
- 26:24Speaker 1: you want to fade Draymond Green. I believe they're playing
- 26:27Speaker 1: the nets. They're playing the nets, and he's he talked
- 26:29Speaker 1: about it. He's like, I gotta go one on one
- 26:30Speaker 1: against Kevin Durant. I hope this curse isn't true. It is, though,
- 26:33Speaker 1: we gotta keep riding that gravy train. You gotta you
- 26:35Speaker 1: gotta bet the nuts time. I'm not have an NBA guy,
- 26:37Speaker 1: but I will be betting the nuts tonight. I love
- 26:39Speaker 1: a good curse trend um. We talked about the Troy
- 26:43Speaker 1: such a gambler. It's bad. This is like the running joke.
- 26:48Speaker 1: I needed to stop even doing any type of work
- 26:50Speaker 1: on this Detroit game because This theory has worked for
- 26:52Speaker 1: me all season. I bet him one week, and I
- 26:55Speaker 1: bet against them the next week. It's literally the entire
- 26:57Speaker 1: season they've seen Salt. It's been at of this world.
- 27:00Speaker 1: Um crazy. So first gliance, I'm all in. I'm like,
- 27:05Speaker 1: oh my god, ten points against this Brown's team and
- 27:07Speaker 1: banged up Baker. I had to take. Detroit took a
- 27:10Speaker 1: step back that the numbers or in the data. Again,
- 27:14Speaker 1: Vegas knows what they're doing. Apparently this line should be
- 27:16Speaker 1: twelve two points of value towards this Brown's team. I
- 27:19Speaker 1: don't want to do it. I'm gonna make in this
- 27:21Speaker 1: one of our five best. I'm just letting you know
- 27:23Speaker 1: that apparently Vegas is setting a little bit of a
- 27:25Speaker 1: trap hered this Detroit team. So I'm just gonna stay
- 27:28Speaker 1: away from it. But I'm gonna be on the Browns
- 27:30Speaker 1: and my pick pools and things like that. Well, I
- 27:33Speaker 1: agree with you, though, I think Vegas is setting a
- 27:35Speaker 1: trap because I looked at this and immediately thought, I'm
- 27:37Speaker 1: all over the Browns. It's a big number. Don't care
- 27:40Speaker 1: right side Browns get right spot for them. This is
- 27:43Speaker 1: a great matchup for them in the sense that they're
- 27:45Speaker 1: gonna get a couple of linemen back, and get Chubb
- 27:47Speaker 1: back this week, so this line might actually go up
- 27:49Speaker 1: from this point as long as those guys are healthy.
- 27:51Speaker 1: That's a take. You're right, it's not a top five
- 27:54Speaker 1: for us, especially when we've already got a couple of
- 27:56Speaker 1: games that that we are eyeing and feel really are
- 28:00Speaker 1: good about. Um. But that's the side. And now a
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- 29:58Speaker 1: Let's get back to the show in Rogers so disappointed
- 30:02Speaker 1: they beat the Seahawks as badly as they did Green
- 30:05Speaker 1: Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings two and a half point
- 30:09Speaker 1: favorites on the road against the Vikings, who pulled one out,
- 30:12Speaker 1: pulled it out against the Chargers. Good look to our
- 30:15Speaker 1: our listeners. People got around Robbins. We gave out the
- 30:17Speaker 1: Vikings moneyline and the forty niners. But then I didn't
- 30:21Speaker 1: on Sunday because I'm an idiot. So yeah, listen to
- 30:23Speaker 1: the show. You backtracked on Sunday. I didn't back jack.
- 30:27Speaker 1: You're trying to put words in my mouth about the Vikings.
- 30:29Speaker 1: I was telling people to take the under. I wasn't
- 30:31Speaker 1: given out a side, simply telling people take it under.
- 30:33Speaker 1: And you go, oh, you like the Chargers. Now it's
- 30:35Speaker 1: like I don't like anything. I like the under. Chad,
- 30:38Speaker 1: stop stop trying to get inside. You're right about the under. Oh,
- 30:41Speaker 1: I know I needed that bad. So when I'm looking
- 30:44Speaker 1: at the Vikings, here I want to make this our
- 30:46Speaker 1: foxhold better? Are you willing to make this our foxhold? That? Chad?
- 30:49Speaker 1: I am. I I feel like we're walking into the
- 30:52Speaker 1: fox let's clide down into the foxhole. No one's gonna
- 31:00Speaker 1: be joining us. Rogers has been a cover machine. What
- 31:04Speaker 1: is it? Ah straight? Now? The Vickers have covered a
- 31:08Speaker 1: straight So scary taking a two and a half number
- 31:12Speaker 1: against them. But we talked all season, I always take
- 31:15Speaker 1: the Vikings a home dog with Zimmer. I know that
- 31:18Speaker 1: it didn't work out for us last time. Cooper Rush
- 31:20Speaker 1: came in and just completely sliced us down and we
- 31:22Speaker 1: had the exact same spot. Right now, we had two
- 31:24Speaker 1: and a half with the Vikings at home against Dallas.
- 31:27Speaker 1: The line moves alway to minus four and a half
- 31:28Speaker 1: for the Vikings. They lost out right, So give me
- 31:32Speaker 1: two and a half with this Minnesota team at home
- 31:34Speaker 1: against the Packers where say what you want about that
- 31:37Speaker 1: Packer Cea Yaks game. Rogers didn't win that. I mean,
- 31:40Speaker 1: I guess he kind of did win that game. That
- 31:42Speaker 1: was more about Russell Wilson just could not get it right.
- 31:45Speaker 1: The guy just again we talked to it, hit pins
- 31:47Speaker 1: in his hands that I hate myself for not betting
- 31:51Speaker 1: that under like that was just such an easy under
- 31:53Speaker 1: beet and for some reason I didn't touch it. Um
- 31:56Speaker 1: coming in this week, I'm not making this mistake where
- 31:59Speaker 1: I'm gonna be scared of Rogers because they have been
- 32:02Speaker 1: a covering machine. We have to look for other way, Chad, Right,
- 32:04Speaker 1: we always talk about regression. This is such a perfect
- 32:07Speaker 1: opportunity for regression spot for the screen baby team. You're
- 32:10Speaker 1: taking them Minnesota at home two and a half. Everyone thinks,
- 32:13Speaker 1: all the publics and I think I'm getting a great
- 32:15Speaker 1: number here with Rogers getting them only two and a half.
- 32:17Speaker 1: Just needs to win by a field goal. Give me,
- 32:19Speaker 1: give me the Vikings. I love that this's are fox fold,
- 32:21Speaker 1: but I like it a lot too. The only thing
- 32:26Speaker 1: that worries me is that this Vikings team is is
- 32:31Speaker 1: consistently inconsistent. They're the worst there. I hate them the
- 32:35Speaker 1: most betting on them of any team this season, because
- 32:38Speaker 1: they really do. They can be good in one half,
- 32:41Speaker 1: bad in the other half, which is kind of what
- 32:43Speaker 1: they were against the Chargers, at least the way it started,
- 32:46Speaker 1: and then in the second half, and then they can
- 32:48Speaker 1: be great in one game, bad in the next game,
- 32:50Speaker 1: and that is a pattern. The only thing you can
- 32:52Speaker 1: count on is that they're not reliable. Yeah, they can't
- 32:55Speaker 1: play four quarters. It's honestly, it's ridiculous. There there's something
- 32:59Speaker 1: I gonna limp into the ELPs and I don't know,
- 33:01Speaker 1: maybe they'll make our run something weird like this. But
- 33:04Speaker 1: you look at Kirk cousins numbers on paper having an
- 33:07Speaker 1: incredible season, but then you watch them playing. You just
- 33:09Speaker 1: can outstand watching Kirk he just is so bad. He
- 33:12Speaker 1: misses like Justin Jefferson would be wide open. He just
- 33:14Speaker 1: sails it over his head. It's still inconsistent, so I
- 33:18Speaker 1: understand why, like why you're having palls with it. But
- 33:21Speaker 1: it's it's just like why we took the Saints last
- 33:23Speaker 1: week against Tennessee. That's that's a This is a sharp number.
- 33:27Speaker 1: It's kind of like a pro number where the book
- 33:30Speaker 1: makes you're kind of telling you a little bit something
- 33:31Speaker 1: here to take this number. So we kind of have to.
- 33:34Speaker 1: Every time I see Kirk Cousins throwing the ball to
- 33:37Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson, I feel like Justin Jefferson is thinking, if
- 33:41Speaker 1: I had a real quarterback, I'd already be the greatest
- 33:43Speaker 1: receiver in NFL history. Yeah, and as an Eagles fan,
- 33:46Speaker 1: I can't stand watching him because it's every time I
- 33:48Speaker 1: see him catch a bongo. We really passed on this guy.
- 33:51Speaker 1: It's it's bad. He's really good, alright, likes plus two
- 33:55Speaker 1: and a half. We're in done. Washington football team at
- 33:59Speaker 1: Carol Lina Panther's our favorite team. The Washington football team
- 34:03Speaker 1: is on the road. The line is plus three and
- 34:05Speaker 1: a half. I will tell you right now. This is
- 34:08Speaker 1: a pros Joe's game. Panthers getting the bets, Washington football
- 34:12Speaker 1: team getting the money. I don't like it. I don't
- 34:15Speaker 1: like this game. The wise guys are coming in too hard,
- 34:18Speaker 1: and Washington football team because of what they did against
- 34:21Speaker 1: the Buccaneers. I feel like the Panthers the right side,
- 34:24Speaker 1: but this number is too big. I talked to another
- 34:26Speaker 1: pro Sunday night. He was at the book he's a
- 34:29Speaker 1: sugar house and I reach out to me, said what
- 34:30Speaker 1: kind of number you get in there? Because I could
- 34:32Speaker 1: only find you know, a certain number that I was
- 34:34Speaker 1: looking forward with that Atlanta matchup. I wanted a seven
- 34:36Speaker 1: and a half and I couldn't find it. And he said, hey,
- 34:38Speaker 1: have you thought about taking the three and a half
- 34:40Speaker 1: of Washington. I was like, no, they just came off
- 34:42Speaker 1: a huge win against the Buccaneers Carolina. They're getting Cam back.
- 34:46Speaker 1: That feels like it's going to reinvigorate that whole team.
- 34:48Speaker 1: And He's like, I don't know, I kind of love it.
- 34:49Speaker 1: I feel like the Washington team kind of got right
- 34:51Speaker 1: where Carolina. I'm with him. I feel like what he
- 34:54Speaker 1: was talking about Cam is Cam is not good. We
- 34:57Speaker 1: know what Camp is. We've seen Cam he is so
- 35:01Speaker 1: he can look amazing in the five yard line, that's
- 35:04Speaker 1: where Cam shines. He's incredible in the red zone. We
- 35:06Speaker 1: know he's a weapon where he can run it, you
- 35:08Speaker 1: can run through guys down there. He can throw it.
- 35:10Speaker 1: But at a full game, on a full field, he
- 35:12Speaker 1: just throws into the ground so consistently. So I see
- 35:15Speaker 1: why they're coming on the three and a half and why,
- 35:17Speaker 1: Like my buddy was betting that Sunday night. But I'm
- 35:20Speaker 1: right there with each other, Like I got no issue
- 35:21Speaker 1: passing this one. Just because both these teams are coming
- 35:23Speaker 1: off huge wins. Can't really get a good read on it.
- 35:26Speaker 1: I don't know how I'm gonna grade the South Cam Like,
- 35:28Speaker 1: I all right, now, I had a two and a half.
- 35:30Speaker 1: So at three and a half, I do lean towards
- 35:32Speaker 1: this Washington team, but I don't know if it's gonna
- 35:34Speaker 1: be one of my five. No market advantage, No, not really.
- 35:38Speaker 1: There were Surgeons forty Niners. Everyone's all of a sudden
- 35:41Speaker 1: love with the forty Niners because Jimmy Garoppolo was throwing
- 35:45Speaker 1: Mac Jones like darts in the middle of the field.
- 35:51Speaker 1: Mac Jones, he's so good. That's Mac Jones right now.
- 35:57Speaker 1: He's a witch nipple quarterback. The forty Niners six and
- 36:01Speaker 1: a half point favorites, seven point favorites on the road
- 36:05Speaker 1: here in Jacksonville, San Francisco, forty Niners at Jacksonville Jaguars.
- 36:11Speaker 1: I know we gotta say we gotta take the Jaguars.
- 36:14Speaker 1: I know it like it's it's like impossible. Not Actually,
- 36:17Speaker 1: the problem is it doesn't feel like a big enough number.
- 36:20Speaker 1: It feels like if I am you, I've got this
- 36:22Speaker 1: number rated at nine. Wow, really added a four and
- 36:25Speaker 1: a half, so I feel like you're gonna yeah, the
- 36:27Speaker 1: four suck. We took them just because that was a
- 36:31Speaker 1: great spot. That was their whole season. On the line,
- 36:34Speaker 1: they always beat the Rams. You just blindly take that number.
- 36:37Speaker 1: That's that was just a classic. Again. It's gonna make
- 36:40Speaker 1: that one of my biggest bets because everything is lined
- 36:42Speaker 1: up so perfectly on that number. With Monday Night. This
- 36:45Speaker 1: is why people having because they don't want to bet
- 36:47Speaker 1: the Jacks. I won't make them, but seven points with
- 36:50Speaker 1: the hell of the forty, Niners be favorite by seven points.
- 36:52Speaker 1: Jaguars are scrappy. They were scrapping that game against the Colts.
- 36:55Speaker 1: I gave them no chance. They stuck in the whole game.
- 36:58Speaker 1: Even though Trevor Lawrence is not good, he kept them
- 37:01Speaker 1: in that game somehow. So I don't know. I guess
- 37:04Speaker 1: we'll pass on it because you just don't like it.
- 37:06Speaker 1: But no, no, no, no, no no, no no. I'm also
- 37:08Speaker 1: looking at the numbers right now and it's it's another
- 37:11Speaker 1: pros Joe's game. He got six of the bets coming
- 37:14Speaker 1: in on the Niners and about sixty of the money
- 37:16Speaker 1: coming in on the Jags. So you're a wise guy.
- 37:20Speaker 1: You're talking to the wise guys. The wise guys agree
- 37:22Speaker 1: with you. Yeah, I'm just some schucks sitting in the
- 37:25Speaker 1: middle of Connecticut. Yeah, but every now and then, Chad,
- 37:27Speaker 1: you know, you know, every now and then so I'm
- 37:30Speaker 1: not gonna force it in because there's other dogs I
- 37:31Speaker 1: like better, but I'll be taking the Jacks. I'll be
- 37:34Speaker 1: taking their money line just on the fact that the
- 37:36Speaker 1: forty niners are feeling great. This is a great letdown spot.
- 37:39Speaker 1: They fly across the country down to hot Florida and
- 37:41Speaker 1: they have a letdown game. So I'm gonna dig in
- 37:44Speaker 1: more because I think I'm gonna go on bed labs.
- 37:46Speaker 1: I just remember seeing something about Shanahan is a big
- 37:49Speaker 1: favorite against the spreads terrible. I'm gonna try to find
- 37:53Speaker 1: those numbers and bring it. I've actually never been more
- 37:55Speaker 1: convinced that the Jags on the right side. In fact,
- 37:58Speaker 1: I'm making a money line parlay right now with the Texans,
- 38:01Speaker 1: the Colts and the Jags. I'm making an a f
- 38:04Speaker 1: C money line parlay. That's gross, dude. It's gross, gross,
- 38:13Speaker 1: gross bets, gross profits. I love it. I'm so fun. Yeah, fun,
- 38:21Speaker 1: gamlis fun. It's the best Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders.
- 38:26Speaker 1: The Bengals are one point, was at one point favorites.
- 38:31Speaker 1: It's another one. You really liked the Raiders last week.
- 38:34Speaker 1: I didn't love it, but I went along with it.
- 38:37Speaker 1: If you look at that Raiders game, that was everything
- 38:39Speaker 1: went wrong. Like Mahomes, he kept getting in third and ten,
- 38:43Speaker 1: third and eights and he would have long twenty yard place.
- 38:46Speaker 1: It was everything could go right for the Chiefs in
- 38:48Speaker 1: that game. Every little thing went wrong for the Raiders.
- 38:50Speaker 1: Raiders had dumb fumbles, they had their safeties dropping in receptions,
- 38:54Speaker 1: just bad bad mojo in that game. Um, public, well,
- 38:59Speaker 1: this will be one of the Looks biggest bets of
- 39:00Speaker 1: the week. I can already tell with this the Sincinnati Bengals.
- 39:03Speaker 1: So I'm gonna keep waiting. I'll get a better number
- 39:06Speaker 1: in Las Vegas. Don't bet it now. I'll just keep waiting.
- 39:09Speaker 1: I think this will get up to two and a
- 39:10Speaker 1: half at some point, just because even the pros got
- 39:13Speaker 1: burned by Oakland, I mean the Las Vegas in that matchup.
- 39:15Speaker 1: A lot of us are in the same boat as
- 39:16Speaker 1: you were, kind of piste off about it. We're thinking ourselves,
- 39:19Speaker 1: you know what, too much has happened. Too much has
- 39:22Speaker 1: happened to this team. They're falling apart. I know one
- 39:24Speaker 1: professional group came in they bet they're under on we
- 39:26Speaker 1: win total. They bought like they did a weird line.
- 39:28Speaker 1: I think it was like six and a half or
- 39:30Speaker 1: seven where they're saying they're gonna win one more game
- 39:32Speaker 1: the rest of the season. Scary. That's scary when you
- 39:35Speaker 1: hear a legit pro group coming and making that bet.
- 39:37Speaker 1: They got good reads on these teams and they saw
- 39:39Speaker 1: value and fading this Las Vegas team. So as you
- 39:42Speaker 1: say here Tuesday, I do like this one, but I'm
- 39:44Speaker 1: not gonna make us forcing in because I can tell,
- 39:46Speaker 1: like you're right there with them. You're looking at this
- 39:48Speaker 1: saying yourself bad mooja, like moja, something is just wrong
- 39:51Speaker 1: with this Las Vegas team that they've had too much
- 39:53Speaker 1: drama going on. Since he needs this game desperately, they
- 39:58Speaker 1: really need this game. With the way a f C
- 40:00Speaker 1: North is shaped out, you can't be dropping games like this,
- 40:03Speaker 1: so it makes sense why you want to kind of
- 40:05Speaker 1: stay away from it. But if this does get up
- 40:06Speaker 1: to three, would be hard for us to pass on
- 40:08Speaker 1: this one. The autumn win is a radar pillaging just
- 40:13Speaker 1: for fun, you know, since he does have one of
- 40:16Speaker 1: the four best quarterbacks in the a f C. Arizona
- 40:21Speaker 1: Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks. The Arizona Cardinals Carlot Murray expected
- 40:26Speaker 1: to come back. They are two and a half point
- 40:29Speaker 1: favorites visiting the Seattle Seahawks. There's another huge pro joe
- 40:37Speaker 1: the Bets and the Cardinals of the money on the Seahawks.
- 40:41Speaker 1: And you know what, I agree, you're here the Seahawks. Yeah,
- 40:45Speaker 1: I'm a past like I don't trust. I don't trust
- 40:48Speaker 1: Russ with the hand I know I'm getting out of him, Kylie,
- 40:51Speaker 1: I don't think he plays. I could see them sending
- 40:53Speaker 1: him one more weeks. They have a bye week and
- 40:54Speaker 1: believe the week after just makes sense. Give him to
- 40:57Speaker 1: another two weeks, get him right, come back to the
- 40:59Speaker 1: final ending the season. But the bookmakers were acting like
- 41:02Speaker 1: he is coming back because this is not a cold
- 41:04Speaker 1: McCoy line, this is a Kyler Murray line. So it
- 41:07Speaker 1: is interesting. I'm with the pros. I guess I do
- 41:10Speaker 1: go towards the Seahawks, just because you know Russ has
- 41:13Speaker 1: another week now to get right. But man, was he
- 41:16Speaker 1: bad in that game. I just couldn't get over how
- 41:17Speaker 1: bad he looked, his decision, making his throws, everything just
- 41:21Speaker 1: looked awful. And then you hear the doctor be in amazement.
- 41:24Speaker 1: This guy is able to even a play right now,
- 41:26Speaker 1: and you hear okay, Well, Russell Wilson apparently was doing
- 41:29Speaker 1: nineteen hours of rehab every day to get back. It's
- 41:31Speaker 1: like everything just sounds like he was just rushed back
- 41:35Speaker 1: just to get on that field first time his career.
- 41:37Speaker 1: Put up zero points in a matchup. So I just professionally,
- 41:41Speaker 1: I just want to touch this game because there's just
- 41:43Speaker 1: too many unknowns and there's not really a good way
- 41:45Speaker 1: to get a good number on this game. I've got
- 41:46Speaker 1: a pretty close relationship with Colt McCoy. Facts. I'll tell
- 41:51Speaker 1: you that story off air. Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs.
- 41:56Speaker 1: Cowboys two and a half point dogs on the road
- 42:02Speaker 1: against the Kansas City Chiefs, who put up in prime
- 42:06Speaker 1: time on the road. Everyone thinks they're back. But at
- 42:11Speaker 1: this point, how do I not be a Chiefs team
- 42:13Speaker 1: less than a field goal? Oh? You love to take
- 42:16Speaker 1: the Cowboys here? This is this is what the Chiefs are.
- 42:19Speaker 1: The Chiefs are bad against teams that can run the ball.
- 42:21Speaker 1: We've seen it this season. Teams that cannot run the ball.
- 42:24Speaker 1: The Chiefs usually have their way for it. Because the
- 42:26Speaker 1: way you beat the Chiefs is you take them out
- 42:28Speaker 1: of rhythm, you control the clock, you run the ball,
- 42:30Speaker 1: key moments on the sideline, he comes in. If he
- 42:33Speaker 1: goes three and out, if he just can't get into
- 42:34Speaker 1: a rhythm like he did on Sunday night, he just
- 42:37Speaker 1: isn't right. And again in that matchup, every little thing
- 42:41Speaker 1: was going right for this Chiefs team. So I'm probably
- 42:45Speaker 1: gonna be with the public here because I can see
- 42:46Speaker 1: the public being with me on the Cowboys, thinking themselves
- 42:50Speaker 1: six point teas are I get the Cowboys eight and
- 42:52Speaker 1: a half? That's a great number. Getting them as a
- 42:54Speaker 1: dog on the money line against his Chiefs team, which
- 42:56Speaker 1: I'm not really a believer in, also a great number.
- 42:58Speaker 1: So it is a little scared. I know I'm gonna
- 43:01Speaker 1: be the public on this one, but I gotta do it.
- 43:03Speaker 1: I think dec is right now that he is to
- 43:06Speaker 1: me the m v P of the league right now. Um, obviously,
- 43:09Speaker 1: go works against him a little bit because Cooper Rush
- 43:11Speaker 1: won a game without him, so it's like, how good
- 43:14Speaker 1: is Dak really? But I just think that is playing
- 43:16Speaker 1: the highest level of all the quarterbacks in league right now,
- 43:18Speaker 1: So I understand why people might be drinking the kool
- 43:21Speaker 1: aid on the Chiefs. I'm not. I need to see
- 43:23Speaker 1: a couple more weeks of it. Happy to take Dallas
- 43:25Speaker 1: here at a plus number. You could do a couple
- 43:28Speaker 1: of six point teasers. There are some numbers here where
- 43:31Speaker 1: some short numbers where a six point teaser, Uh, for
- 43:34Speaker 1: a couple of these games might not be a bad idea.
- 43:37Speaker 1: It's a good long week, Yes, exactly. Um, all right,
- 43:40Speaker 1: you kind of convinced me, you know, I'm kind of
- 43:43Speaker 1: see what I'm talking about. Like, you can run it
- 43:44Speaker 1: like the Cowboys. They love to run it. They got
- 43:47Speaker 1: two great running backs. This is a really bad matchup
- 43:50Speaker 1: for this Chiefs team. Yeah, uh no, you're right, You're right.
- 43:55Speaker 1: And like I was, all of a sudden thinking public
- 43:57Speaker 1: and the Chiefs played great. All of a sudden, they're back,
- 44:02Speaker 1: and he's careful of the over Chiefs and overs at
- 44:05Speaker 1: home have not been good to the public. They've lost
- 44:07Speaker 1: a lot of these. So if you're if you're thinking
- 44:09Speaker 1: about taking this over, I would not do it. I
- 44:11Speaker 1: would stay away. Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers four
- 44:16Speaker 1: and a half points. The Chargers are favored. I think
- 44:19Speaker 1: we've gotta pass on this for now. I don't think
- 44:21Speaker 1: we know enough about Ben yet. See, I'm I'm really
- 44:24Speaker 1: hoping he comes back. I'd be all in on the Chargers.
- 44:26Speaker 1: We talked about these quarterbacks coming back from COVID have
- 44:29Speaker 1: not looked right. Aaron Rodgers didn't look right. No one
- 44:32Speaker 1: thinks of Roethlisberger as being this peak performance kind of guy,
- 44:35Speaker 1: and we already looked at him like a broken down
- 44:37Speaker 1: old man. Now he's coming off COVID with no practice.
- 44:42Speaker 1: I'm really hoping he comes back because I will happily
- 44:45Speaker 1: join the public and take this Chargers team. But like
- 44:47Speaker 1: you just said, we don't really have the information yet.
- 44:49Speaker 1: We don't know what's gonna happen. We don't know what
- 44:51Speaker 1: the deal is with Watt either, if t J. Watt
- 44:53Speaker 1: might be out for this matchup against the Chargers. So
- 44:56Speaker 1: I'm with you, We'll try to revisit Thursday. But as
- 45:00Speaker 1: we stand here right now, I do like the Chargers
- 45:02Speaker 1: in this matchup New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
- 45:15Speaker 1: Giants eleven and a half point dogs on the road.
- 45:19Speaker 1: This is when you bet Danny Dimes. This is when
- 45:21Speaker 1: Danny Dimes turns into Danny Dimes. This is when Danny
- 45:23Speaker 1: Dimes earns his dime. Let's hear it for Danny Dimes.
- 45:35Speaker 1: I know, I hate it. I hate that we have
- 45:36Speaker 1: to be the Giants. What we do. We do this
- 45:38Speaker 1: is when we take him, but my god, Brady. Two
- 45:42Speaker 1: straight losses at home. This has to be a blow
- 45:45Speaker 1: win for Brady where everyone's everyone's gonna really start panicking
- 45:48Speaker 1: because they just have not played well. But it's something
- 45:51Speaker 1: that likes to find value on future bets. You have
- 45:54Speaker 1: to be a big Giants fan. The Giants, if they
- 45:56Speaker 1: can smell win this game, you're gonna get incredible value
- 45:59Speaker 1: on the Buccaneers to when it's Super Bowl future. So
- 46:02Speaker 1: I'm hoping that the Giants to pull off this miracle upset.
- 46:04Speaker 1: We will. We will be taking that eleven or ten
- 46:06Speaker 1: and a half, whatever it settles on. But you have
- 46:08Speaker 1: to keep in your back of your mind taking the
- 46:10Speaker 1: Buccaneers on the futures because they're out. They don't have
- 46:13Speaker 1: gronk right now, they don't have May be when all
- 46:15Speaker 1: these guys get back and their defense gets healthy come December,
- 46:18Speaker 1: come January, this buck seems going to be really legit.
- 46:21Speaker 1: We're gonna look back on these days where they've dropped
- 46:23Speaker 1: all these games against these bad teams and just be like,
- 46:25Speaker 1: you know what, they just weren't healthy. So this is
- 46:28Speaker 1: one of these you want to keep your eye on.
- 46:29Speaker 1: If you're ben the Giants here, you kind of want
- 46:31Speaker 1: to keep in the back of your mind hoping for
- 46:32Speaker 1: a big win here so you can get a good
- 46:34Speaker 1: Bucks Futures super Bowl. Bet, all right, we'll keep the
- 46:37Speaker 1: Giants in. I think it's I think it's a good
- 46:39Speaker 1: play for potentially for the contest. Like I'm, I'm we
- 46:42Speaker 1: got We've got about nine games circles here. We got
- 46:45Speaker 1: potentially Atlanta plus seven if we want to go early.
- 46:48Speaker 1: We got Bears plus six and a half if we
- 46:51Speaker 1: feel like some of their defenders are coming back. Texans
- 46:53Speaker 1: plus ten and a half. We love the Texans as assignment,
- 46:56Speaker 1: says Bet. Also like him on the money line. Saints
- 46:59Speaker 1: plus one and a half, Colts plus seven, Vices plus
- 47:02Speaker 1: two and a half, Jack's plus seven, Raiders maybe plus one,
- 47:06Speaker 1: but we want to wait on it always plus two
- 47:08Speaker 1: and a half. Giants plus eleven and a half. We
- 47:10Speaker 1: got a lot to talk about on Thursday. We're gonna
- 47:12Speaker 1: have to really focus in. Yeah, we're gonna cut it down.
- 47:15Speaker 1: Let's hope we get some feedback from other sharps. Let's
- 47:18Speaker 1: hope there's some market news. Let's see how injuries pile up.
- 47:21Speaker 1: I think we got a lot of meat on the
- 47:23Speaker 1: bone for Thursday. Yeah, article here a hand them a
- 47:25Speaker 1: head saying you guys got way too many dogs, too
- 47:28Speaker 1: many dogs. You need some favorites in there. But I do.
- 47:31Speaker 1: I love the dogs this week. There's a lot of
- 47:32Speaker 1: good home dogs. Well. Look, the bottom line is when
- 47:36Speaker 1: you're betting, the lines are usually shaded towards the favorite
- 47:39Speaker 1: because that's what the public is gonna bet, and that's
- 47:41Speaker 1: how bookmakers know they can take advantage. So it's our
- 47:43Speaker 1: job to find the best possible value of those underdogs. Always,
- 47:48Speaker 1: that's the job. I'm sorry to tell you what's your
- 47:52Speaker 1: screwtrou lempick? Oh wait, I get to go first because
- 47:54Speaker 1: it carried over time down the hops. When all hope
- 48:01Speaker 1: is lost, all that's left is relief. Let's play scoots roulette.
- 48:10Speaker 1: I'm going with the Saints plus one and a half
- 48:13Speaker 1: wow against my Eagles. You sun him a bit, all right.
- 48:16Speaker 1: I'm going colds them against my damn it. I was
- 48:19Speaker 1: gonna do the Colts all right. Well, I like them both.
- 48:23Speaker 1: I like him literally until I said the words saying
- 48:27Speaker 1: I thought Colts is going to come out of my mouth.
- 48:30Speaker 1: That's what I thought. I love Chad. You go Saints
- 48:33Speaker 1: might be a trap and you take it for your
- 48:34Speaker 1: scoot ro lep pick. That's that's how you're the best.
- 48:37Speaker 1: I don't remember half the things I say. That's the problem.
- 48:41Speaker 1: That might be the sign that you're saying too much.
- 48:43Speaker 1: If you can't remember everything you say, then you're probably
- 48:45Speaker 1: saying too much. It's like that feels like a scooch
- 48:48Speaker 1: is m speaking of scooch? Your scoot roulette is the
- 48:51Speaker 1: Colts plus seven. Mine is the Saints plus one and
- 48:54Speaker 1: a half. I've been trapped. The foxhold for us is
- 48:56Speaker 1: the Vikes plus two and a half. Simon says, bet
- 48:59Speaker 1: it right now Texans plus ten and a half. We
- 49:02Speaker 1: will be back on Thursday to narrow down the field,
- 49:07Speaker 1: to do our big balls better the week talk about
- 49:12Speaker 1: our money line parlays, give out a survivor pick as
- 49:15Speaker 1: if we're still in the contest and we hadn't been robbed.
- 49:18Speaker 1: I think we covered it all, my friend alright, brothers
- 49:20Speaker 1: to you Thursday. Until Thursday, this has been the favorite
- 49:24Speaker 1: podcast from the volume podcast Network, download of Spotify, Apple Podcasts,
- 49:28Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. Love you