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Houston Open PGA Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | Single-Entry GPP Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All systems going clear, the lift up?
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: What's up?
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Ember one?
• 0:36
  Speaker 3: Tyler Tamberline here aka Totagg and Tambo back for another
• 0:39
  Speaker 3: edition of Leverage Lane here on the ship at Nation
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: YouTube Station. Got my guy Alex blikel here with me
• 0:44
  Speaker 3: as always, gonna be breaking down all things Texas Children's
• 0:47
  Speaker 3: Houston Open on the PGA Tour this week. We've got
• 0:51
  Speaker 3: a good one here, the Scottie w d. Congrats to
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: him and his family. Baby number two coming through, so
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: we've got that he's out, but his pricing was in,
• 0:58
  Speaker 3: so we'll be talking about that. We're going to teach
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: you how to play, not just who to play, and
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: try and put it all together.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: We'll have our leverage Lane at the end.
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: We'll talk some one and done, have a quick betting segment,
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: and the topic for today, we're going to talk a
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: little bit about when there's a certain course narrative like
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: this week is probably heard the word bombers a few times,
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: if not more than that, but we'll talk a little
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: bit about that as well.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Alex. I'll bring you in first man.
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: We'll recap last week a little bit, talk through some
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: weather course fit and then get into the topic.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: But what's going on, my friend? How you doing?
• 1:26
  Speaker 4: Do it very well in New York City this week?
• 1:28
  Speaker 4: Visiting grandparents and hopefully sirens are two minimum and obviously
• 1:33
  Speaker 4: have the old school set up here today.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: But it's going to be a fun one to talk through.
• 1:37
  Speaker 4: And yeah, there's there are kind of lots of wrinkles
• 1:39
  Speaker 4: to it, the Scotti wrinkle as you mentioned, and the
• 1:41
  Speaker 4: fact that everyone's all in on this bomber narrative and
• 1:44
  Speaker 4: it's largely supported by the data and not just last
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: season where it was softer conditions, So we really saw
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: a boost Like I think last year we saw driving
• 1:53
  Speaker 4: distance about two hundred and fifty percent more predictive than usual,
• 1:57
  Speaker 4: which is just an absolutely massive number. It's not usually
• 2:00
  Speaker 4: that high here, but it is always boosted here and
• 2:03
  Speaker 4: so worth talking through.
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: You know, do do.
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: We get different within bombers or do we go to
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: a different skill set? How do we how do we
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: respond to the field being on the same kind of
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: course fit narrative that we are. It's a fun conversation, hap.
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think last week a lot of people like
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: the topic of going through sort of the roster construction
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: stuff and funny enough, just like not recap the whole thing.
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: We will have a min Wu conversation this week shortly
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: as well, but just to note it, like Matt Fitzpatrick
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: almost thirty percent last week at a ninety eight hundred
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: dollars price tag.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: He goes out just a week.
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: After coming in second at the Players and gets the
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: job done and wins last week. But the lineup if
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: you looked at by the way, shout up to you
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: on the Sung Jay call, I was on my boy,
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: I had like.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: Seven or eight percent.
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: I didn't get as much as I would have liked,
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: and he didn't come through on Sunday. But Sungjay was
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: looking good through three rounds at least, and for his
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: price tag paid off. But if you looked at the
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: winning lineup again, it just you know, we talked a
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: lot about skipping the Nines and I went hobblind and Xander,
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: and Xander came through.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: But in the end, it was you could play.
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: Matt fitz Patrick funny enough, how could you play Matt
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: Fitzpatrick differently?
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Don't land in the mid sevens.
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: Well, what it ended up being it was Xander Fitzpatrick
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: and then you had like seventy three hundred dollars seven
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: k seventy one hundred dollars sung Jay and like a
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: sixty five hundred dollars Lipski, or you could have landed
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: like one more guy down in that lower seven K range,
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: but that would have been a way that you could
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: add lower owned options in the bottom of the seven ks,
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: still used a popular Fitzpatrick but then up over the
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: top with Xander mixed in there.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: So I don't know if you had any.
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: Follow up on that, but I thought a lot of
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: people really liked the roster construction conversation that we had there,
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: and then I'd posted out this article last week, got
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: a lot of got a lot of action, people loved it.
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: Just the most misunderstood concept. I said, like, this is
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: a big one where people focus so much on these
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: picks and plays and not putting it all together again.
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: Another puzzle last week that had Fitzpatrick like most thought,
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: but played in a completely different way than the rest
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: of the field. Any thoughts on that and just last
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: week's conversation leading into this one, Yeah.
• 3:58
  Speaker 4: I think one of the one of the really cool
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: like thoughts that I had afterwards was just what would
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: a Xander and Fitzpatrick lineup have looked like where you
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: would have started in that, you know, really contrarian pairing.
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: Obviously they both ended up doing quite well, with Xander
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: playing super well on Sunday, but would that pairing have
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: worked because of who else you needed to use along
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: with them? And I think that segues pretty well into
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: this week where it is worth having this conversation of
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: where does.
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: The Scotty ownership go?
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: But I think a big point here is there wasn't
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: going to be much Scotty ownership, so I don't think
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: it flows through to the rest of the board now
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: very much where we're really going to see like a
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: massive change in ownership for anybody, because when we think
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: about it, like the Scotti ownership itself is going to
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: be distributed pretty evenly through the top of the board
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: basically like the whole nine K upper AK range, they're
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: all getting just a little bit more ownership than they
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: would have. And then where we potentially would have seen
• 4:58
  Speaker 4: the most changes, like let's say Scotty was forty percent, Well,
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: if he was going to be forty percent, then okay,
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: there would have had to be at least somebody down
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: in the six seven K range that was going to
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: be fifteen percent or something like that, because they would
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: have been, you know, in a third of Scotty lineups
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: or something like that, and then that person may have
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: gone from fifteen percent to five percent, from fifteen percent
• 5:19
  Speaker 4: to you know, seven or eight percent something like that,
• 5:22
  Speaker 4: but Scotty wasn't going to be owned enough for that
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: to happen. And so I really don't think anything changes
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: a ton here, and we're pretty much just left with
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: the exact same puzzle because I think Scotty would have
• 5:32
  Speaker 4: been like ten percent on certainly the lowest that we
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: had seen this year.
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: That's what I wanted to clarify too, and I know
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: you were getting there with it, So I'm glad you
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: said that at the end because if some we're wondering,
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: we were never thinking Scotty was going to be all.
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: That's the whole point he's basically has turned into now.
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: I think it's been enough people to see it. Mind you,
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: the last few tournaments he still got him like twenty plus,
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: but he's kind of turned into the rake now because
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: people are realizing that even if Scotty wins, and it
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: sounds weird to say or like whatever people want to
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: call it, they could say what they want.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: I'm not even shitting on Scotty.
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: Scotty could win a tournament and not be needed the
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: way it's set up right now and the way things
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: have gone, so just noting it. It's like, at the
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: end of the day, if he was gonna be ten
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: to twelve percent or whatever, like people are looking at
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: it like goal, it's almost fifteen seventeen somewhere that range.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: It might just be like the rake now that goes away.
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: But for everyone's like, oh now, min Wu, chalk hate
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: to tell you this and burst your ball. Min Wu
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: went from like thirty two percent to forty. It's like
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: he was never gonna be fifteen percent or Something's like
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: this all just landed on min Wu. He was already
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: going to be popular because he was almost five thousand
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: dollars or four thousand dollars and change cheaper than Scotty,
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: So you got to keep that in mind. This is
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: a good one from Ryan blick Les mackround every week.
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: The International Man of Mystery New York didn't stand out,
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: So yeah, shut up to everybody here in the chat.
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: We appreciate you guys. Make sure to hit the thumbs
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: up if you are watching on mobile. Just close out
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: the chat with the exit in the top right corner,
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: hit the thumbs up quick, and then you can bring
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: it right back up and get in on the conversation.
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: Make sure you're subscribed as we keep moving here towards
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: twelve thousand, five hundred subscribers. Now we'll answer some of
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: these questions as well, but we'll get.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: To min Wu Scotty.
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: Whether everything that we're gonna do as usual, the chalk
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: line up, how to let betting segment one and done
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: in our lane. But I wanted to start today with
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: this topic. You and I chat it a little bit
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: on it yesterday and you brought it up. Is you
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: know new Ones is kind of leading us there with
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: a segue says bombers that are actually accurate. Maybe you
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: can bomb all day and still play bad. I want
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: to ask you when you have a week so prevalent
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: to one narrative theme, course, a skill set, I should say, actually,
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: or it could be of course fit stuff. We're going
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: to stick to the skill sets. We're talking about the
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: word bombers, and this has been the thing. We're looking
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: at clubhead speed. We're looking at all these different factors
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: driving distance off the tea, et cetera, et cetera.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: So everyone's looking at all that.
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: When you have that, do you do you have a
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: thought around, you know, sticking with it and just pivoting
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: to different bombers or is there you know, an alternative
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: for you where you say, well, why don't we go
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: playing from the fair way good with long irons because
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: that might be the way or whatever you feel. Obviously,
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: it doesn't mean what's right, wrong or in different, just
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: kind of getting your thoughts on this as a topic
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: in a hole.
• 7:56
  Speaker 4: I think it depends on the course fit model, and
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: basically it depends on what other skill sets are translating
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: to success. So to directly answer this question, I don't
• 8:06
  Speaker 4: think the answer is that you focus on bombers who
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: are also accurate, because accuracy is fifty percent less predictive
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: than usual. Here, it's just not a separating skill. And actually,
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: when you look at guys instead of so the less
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: than fifty percent compared to normal, that's including guys who
• 8:24
  Speaker 4: are missing cuts and so like, one of the things
• 8:26
  Speaker 4: that we have found about the predictive value of accuracy
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: is a lot of the time it's more of like
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: a floor indicator. In other words, being inaccurate hurts players
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: more than it helps.
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: The accurate players, if that makes sense.
• 8:40
  Speaker 4: So we already have that asymmetry where it's not a
• 8:46
  Speaker 4: separating skill set, and then that predictive value is even
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: diminished more here. So instead what we see at this
• 8:52
  Speaker 4: course is a big boost in approach place predictive value,
• 8:55
  Speaker 4: and a big boost in putting's predictive value as well.
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: So all three skill sets distance, approach, plate and putting
• 9:02
  Speaker 4: matter a lot more than usual around the green place
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: pretty neutral here, and then accuracy off the tea matters
• 9:07
  Speaker 4: a lot less. So one of the ways that we
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: can approach this is we can say, all right, let
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: me find the guys who are long off the tea
• 9:15
  Speaker 4: who are also good either with their irons or putting,
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: and so like maybe you say I need at least
• 9:20
  Speaker 4: two of those three to be good. The other thing
• 9:23
  Speaker 4: you can do is you can actually look for the
• 9:24
  Speaker 4: guys who aren't long off the tee but are good
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: with both their approach, play and putting, and you basically say, look,
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: there are multiple ways to play well here. It's a
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: lot harder to do if you don't have the distance.
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: But we at least know who's going to be the
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: most capable without the distance. It's the guys who are
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: good with both their irons and putting.
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: I like that, and I think you could take some
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: other things from it as well, Like I like the
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: point you made about the floor piece. The reason I
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: bring that up is because, like I think, was the
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: players right, Like remember Mari Kaala withdraws after one hole.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: That's a forty three percent our own guy.
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: Not to you know, open up any wounds that are
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: still their hashtag too soon maybe, but just noting it.
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: What happened that week is a bunch of the chalk
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: made the cut, but very few of those were actually needed.
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: Like they all had like mediocre results, but they got
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: through for you. So taking on some of these risks,
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: like somebody said earlier, like Lipsky last week, or think
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: about back to the week too. I'll use Lipsky from
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: last week, but also Nico the week that he ended
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: up coming out and getting the win Etchevaria.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: That is that I'm talking.
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: There's different Nco this week that I got interest as
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: we usually do in hoguard there.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: But just noting it. This is a setup. These are
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: the guys that.
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: You take on for the potential of the upside the
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: week of I forget what I think was the player's
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: week as well, like Homa Brooks Speeth JT. Not a
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: lot of love for all those guys that week, but
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: three of them at least we're in the mix at
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: one point. And so it's like sometimes you are just
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: taking the risk on that because well, they're not the
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: chalk portion and they may not.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: Have the floor those do.
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: It's the ceiling outcome and that opportunity that can lead
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: to the winning lineups. Remember it's a very ceiling Think
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: about the prize pool and the way the structure works
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: very much ceiling oriented.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: This building starts.
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: With the roof this big and gets skinny at the bottom,
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: unlike most buildings have a good foundation and then gets
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: skinny at the top. You think about the the buildings
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: in New York City and places like that, it's like
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: they're not built like that. These these buildings are built
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: with very wide top end ceilings. So you got to
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: play for that and putting them some of those guys
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: into your pool is important.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: You kind of hit on this one in a rapid fire.
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: A couple of these will note, though, people got to
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: really pay attention to this, and it's you know, been there,
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: but it's whether or not you're looking or thinking about
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: it this way.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: It doesn't mean it's right. Just noting it.
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: They're putting like seven to ten guys at the seven
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: K price points, So you have seven guys at seven K,
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: you'll have eight more guys at seventy one hundred.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: Like it's not really distributing. Like you know, Alex had
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: said earlier, if he was gonna be ten percent, it
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: was just all those guys, the bottom would have been dispersed.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: You can still play all those guys.
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: What it really does though, and I want to tie
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: it to this and get your thoughts, is the six
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: K range going to spread out enough that no one
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: breaks ten percent? You're you're saying six K Bryant. The
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: truth here is the seven K range, Well, it will
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: have maybe five or six guys that are double digits.
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: It just it makes it really hard for the six
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: k's to get anything. And the seven k's still with
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: Like I said, how many golfers are in the seven
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: K range. It barely gets to fifteen. On many these
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: days you might see one at seventeen one at fifteen,
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: a couple.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: At twelve, but it falls off quickly.
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: And remember twelve is eighty eight out of one hundred
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: aren't playing that golfer, and then you still need to
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: put five more golfers into said lineup that we're talking about.
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: So it's like there's a ton of different ways that
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: you can go there. But do you have any thoughts
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: on this question from Bryant?
• 12:34
  Speaker 4: Yeah, So I think where I'll start is kind of
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: just addressing the first one, which is just like asking
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: about the distribution of Scotty ownership. The first point I'll
• 12:45
  Speaker 4: make here is and I kind of made this point already,
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: like I don't think a lot has changed based on
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: the fact that Scotty Withdrew. I do think the way
• 12:54
  Speaker 4: that the pricing works now has affected ownership. Where if
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: DraftKings had priced this contest, this tournament without Scotty to
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: begin with, we'd see very different prices for some of
• 13:05
  Speaker 4: these players, and that of course would affect ownership. And
• 13:08
  Speaker 4: so I think that's something you were kind of touching
• 13:10
  Speaker 4: on there, But I'll expand on it a little bit
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: where let's think of last year, like what the pricing was,
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: Like I think one of our complaints.
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: Last year was that it was just way too easy
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: to use him.
• 13:21
  Speaker 4: They did a nice job of getting Scotty to a
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: price point that was, you know, that he was worthy of,
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: but they didn't do a good enough job of making
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: that price itself prohibitive because there were just too many
• 13:32
  Speaker 4: guys who you know, deserved to be eighty five hundred
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: dollars that were seventy six hundred dollars or something like that.
• 13:37
  Speaker 4: And consequently, it was just really easy to build Scotty lineups.
• 13:41
  Speaker 4: And so what they've done this year is they've kind
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: of thinned out that seven thousand dollar range, where they've
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: made like the seven thousand range go up into the eights,
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: but they've also then brought like the ten and the
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: nine k guys down a little bit, where it's like
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: they're compressing everything, so the guys who used to be
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: here are now here in price, so there's less of
• 13:59
  Speaker 4: a difference. And the thing that that does is it says,
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: not only is Scotty this much more expensive than everybody else,
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: but you also now have a bit of a discount
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: on these other really good players. And it's why we've
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: seen Scotty's ownership kind of consistently come down a little
• 14:12
  Speaker 4: bit and a little bit each tournament, and why it
• 14:14
  Speaker 4: seems like you and I agreement that he would have
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: been really ill awoned this week. And I still don't
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: think I would have had interest because you build significantly
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: better lineups without him. So even if you said, like
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: I believe that Scotty's going to bounce back and I
• 14:28
  Speaker 4: think he's still the guy that he was last year,
• 14:30
  Speaker 4: I still don't think he would have been a good
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: play at fourteen eight hundred given the pricing of everybody else.
• 14:35
  Speaker 4: And so all of this is essentially to say, I
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: think we were already going to see not a ton
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: of ownership in the sixes and sevens because this like
• 14:46
  Speaker 4: upper seven K to ten K range is all full
• 14:50
  Speaker 4: of guys that you can make a pretty good argument
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: that they are technically underpriced. And so that's where the
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: field was going to go regardless, that's where the field's
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: going to go now.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And I want to add one more point to that.
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: Not sure if we were just saying in a different way,
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: but of note that's important to me at least, and
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: that I think people forget is even at thirteen two
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: and thirteen to five that Scotty was last season. A
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: lot people are forgetting that they were. Even at one
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: point there was a five K range involved, and it
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: was not about the ability to play five K guys
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: because you didn't need them, but it was even worse
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: to what Alex just talked about. You had eighty eight
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: hundred dollar golfers getting pushed down to seventy five hundred.
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: You had seventy nine hundred dollar golfers getting pushed down
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: to seventy one hundred. Well, if you take Scotty at
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: a regular week like this and have around seventy one
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: hundred left to play five guys, imagine you could play
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: five eight thousand dollars golfers last year at that price.
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: Then ad the fact that Scotty was one thousand bucks less,
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: so you were actually in like the eight K range,
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: like upper seven K mid seven K range.
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: But you had all these eight K golfers pushed down.
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: It made way more sense last year, and that's why
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: people could could get away with it. More hindsights twenty
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: twenty we think we figured out now, not even though
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: on the results of but Scotty was winning then and
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: right now he hasn't been it's not even about that.
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: I'm just talking no results, just process wise. It made
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: now when you see.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: It, you're like, oh yeah, now he's a thousand bucks
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: less and the golfers were all a thousand bucks less.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: It's like that just.
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: Made for the perfect storm of why now we're like me,
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: we were probably foolish to fade Scotty ever, if at
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: all if you did, because you're like, that makes a
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: ton of sense.
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: Even if he didn't fully.
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: Win back then that's why you still results where Scotty
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: was finishing fifth and sixth and eighth or whatever it was,
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: and you'd still see him in the mix because you
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: could just get really really good Scotty lineup.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: So I think it answers that one quite nicely. Do
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: you have any thoughts on this.
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: Just to you know, somebody talking about building a single
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: entry obviously that's your expertise, and you know, you get
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: your four guys is kind of what they're saying. And
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: I know we've talked in the past about playing a
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: three max like a single lantry where you can't really
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: be sure and instead of playing a fifty dollars single entry,
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: maybe you play a twenty dollars three Max, it's ten
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: bucks more. But you are able to funnel through a
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: couple different variations on the same core. But if you
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: are down to having a hard time choosing between the
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: safe safe make the cut guy or the high upside guy,
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: what kind of philosophy do you suggest? And then I
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: will add to it for them. But how much of
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: your process is based on the rest of the lineup?
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: Because I think that also matters as well.
• 17:11
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's basically all the rest of the lineup. Where
• 17:14
  Speaker 4: there isn't a consistent answer here, it's what what are
• 17:18
  Speaker 4: you asking of the rest of your lineup? What type
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: of players do you have in the rest of your lineup?
• 17:21
  Speaker 4: So like, let's say, for example, that you start your
• 17:24
  Speaker 4: lineup with let's go with Ricky Fowler. Okay, if Ricky
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: Feller is someone that you have conviction on this week,
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: Ricky is somebody who's very valuable from a dmfrest perspective
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: because of his floor, because you're consistently getting a good
• 17:40
  Speaker 4: chunk of points from him. But he's not someone who's
• 17:43
  Speaker 4: contending very often. He's not somebody who is very likely
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: to win. He's you know, he's writing the same ballpark
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: as the guys around him in terms of our expected
• 17:51
  Speaker 4: throw skain projections, and he's at like half the win
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: equity as a lot of the guys around him. So
• 17:58
  Speaker 4: with Fowler, you want somebody who does have that upside,
• 18:02
  Speaker 4: and maybe he does come with some more you know,
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: miscut risk, but you want that guy who when he hits,
• 18:08
  Speaker 4: he's going to do really well. Conversely, if you have
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: Sahit Thigala and Wyndham Clark already in your lineup, and
• 18:14
  Speaker 4: you're saying, I know that these guys have a really
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: shaky floor and they can they can. Man, when they
• 18:20
  Speaker 4: play poorly, it looks awful and I feel like my
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: lineup is dead on Thursday afternoon. But when they play well,
• 18:27
  Speaker 4: they're in fifth place and they're making a ton of birdies.
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: And so maybe they're in fifth place on the actual leaderboard,
• 18:31
  Speaker 4: but they're in third in draftings, scoring things of that nature.
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: Those kinds of guys should be paired with a high,
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: you know, made.
• 18:38
  Speaker 4: Cut equity guy and you don't really have to worry
• 18:39
  Speaker 4: about the ceiling of that last man. And so very
• 18:42
  Speaker 4: much depends on the lineup. And then I'd also say
• 18:44
  Speaker 4: it depends a little bit on on what you're what
• 18:47
  Speaker 4: you're already getting from an ownership perspective. So like, even
• 18:50
  Speaker 4: if you have a really high you know, win equity
• 18:53
  Speaker 4: player in your line and maybe you even have two,
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: if those guys are chalky, then they're not what we
• 18:58
  Speaker 4: what we now call separators, right, And so if if
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: that's the case, even if they do well, you still
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: need somebody else in your lineup to really help separate you.
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: And if you're not getting that from your other three,
• 19:09
  Speaker 4: you know, maybe non chrucky guys or non high win
• 19:12
  Speaker 4: equity guys, then makes sense for the last guy to
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: be another high upside guy.
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, like that quite a bit, and I figured that's
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: where you go there. I just want to make sure
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: answer a couple more quick ones just at the cognizant Ryan,
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: we just had this, you know, it kind of turned
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: into that. As Alex said, a lot would have changed
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: if the pricing wasn't done before the Scotty WD, because
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: then you would have had the mid move. Mid move
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: would have been ten eight or ten to five or something.
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: It would have changed up kind of everything. But just
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: got to note that. But now you can kind of
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: play it like that week. It doesn't mean it's gonna
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: work out the same way. But I think that's a
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: content conversation for another minute or two.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: Dennis.
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: We appreciate you being here man every week ten thirty
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: am Eastern, which I think is nine thirty CST. But
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: I'm not the best of time zones, and I'm in
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: one that doesn't even exist in the United States, so
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: I'm not the best to help you with that.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: There.
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: Jason talks about, Yeah, not much of a penalty, but
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: missing the fairway. We'll talk about that going through what
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: people are landing on.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: One thing I'll say about this.
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: I know stat you brought up yesterday in the discord
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: as well, there is some again if you have like
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: an mme approach, which is my side of things here
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: on the show. I definitely think that's a great call out,
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: and obviously anything you can do in that you can
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: do in signal entry. I'm just saying what becomes challenging,
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: almost like when people go Scotty is what I always
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: call a yachtzie Scheffler. You're just counting Scotty as the
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: high score, and I know you're not talking about Scotty.
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: I'm combining two things here, But when you count Scotty,
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: you got to roll the other five perfect dice, and
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: it's like, oh, I rolled four, but I didn't roll
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: Lipsky in my dice. Let's use like a regular week
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: where you know, like last week or if you needed Lipsky,
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: Scotty wasn't there. But just to notice, it's same thing here.
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: If you do lean into the six k guys and
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: you only have one lineup, the minute you get like
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: one thing wrong. And I know people say, well, that's
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: the same for everything. It's not necessarily you can get
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: like Alex has said, especially in higher dollars single entry
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: stuff too. You could still play like a really good
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: lineup like I've showed off on the show multiple times,
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: winning me big tickets and things like that and still
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: get pretty good scores out of them. Where it is
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: a bit of a safer approach, But it's like nobody
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: over fifteen, nobody under eight. You're all talking about these guys.
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: You just didn't find this construction to put them all
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: together this way. And I'm not worried about being duped
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: or anything like that. So I think it's it is
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: definitely a way to go this week, but definitely think
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: something to consider all this stuff is built into the projections, right,
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: So when you account for this type of stuff, it's
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: all built in in the back end part of the
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: formulas that we put together. And I'm sure it's the
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: same for Alex and I think that's kind.
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: Of the majority.
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: But yeah, like Toasty is a conversation Jessper Yeah, he
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: had them there listed to the bottom. Yeah, those two
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: might get the five to eight again in a vacuum
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: horrible because if it was a matchup play and like
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: one guy's point five percent and Toasty's eight percent, then
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: yeah you want the point five Now you could add
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: that to your full lineup conversation.
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: But I get it.
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: But it's more so the overall conversation to me Alex
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: of like why is Toasty popular?
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: He's coming off seven miscuts? But wait then he came
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: thirtieth in what was that Puerto Rico? What did he play?
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: And like, uh, what's this?
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: Anyway, it might even have been better than that. But
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: my point is, like, you know, people track this stuff.
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: It might have been at the Houston Open just past right.
• 22:14
  Speaker 4: Yeah. The other way that I'll answer this question is
• 22:16
  Speaker 4: that it shows up a lot in ceiling projections at
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: least for us over at FTN, where like these guys
• 22:22
  Speaker 4: who make a ton of birdies, they're still going to
• 22:24
  Speaker 4: have events where they don't make birdies. I think that
• 22:27
  Speaker 4: that should be pretty intuitive. But like, essentially, what you're
• 22:30
  Speaker 4: saying is, no matter how well or poorly this guy plays,
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: we expect him to make a little bit more birdies
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: than you would expect given his actual performance. But if
• 22:39
  Speaker 4: his actual performance is bad, you're still expecting very very
• 22:42
  Speaker 4: very few birdies. And so it doesn't really affect the
• 22:45
  Speaker 4: floor a whole lot. But what you're also saying is
• 22:48
  Speaker 4: when this guy plays well, he's not going to be
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: playing really well because he's doing a great job of
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: avoiding bowie's. He's going to play well because he is scoring,
• 22:57
  Speaker 4: he's converting all the part fives, he's you know, maybe
• 22:59
  Speaker 4: getting eagle or two something like that. And the other
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: thing is the more birdies you're making, the higher odds
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: of a streak are and things of that nature. And
• 23:07
  Speaker 4: so it shows up a lot in ceiling projections. And
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: so for example, like I'm staring at you know, Michael Thorpe, Doornson, Veru,
• 23:13
  Speaker 4: Shane Lowry, They're almost identical in our projected points. But
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: thorpe Jornson's almost four points ahead of Lowry in our
• 23:20
  Speaker 4: ceiling projection, and so you really see it separate in
• 23:23
  Speaker 4: that regard. Both of those guys high volatility players, so
• 23:26
  Speaker 4: the ceiling is there in that regard, but Lowry's slightly
• 23:29
  Speaker 4: negative BIRDI rate over expectation, thorpe Burnson has one of
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: the best plus two point two percent.
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and Brian, I know this is what I'm saying.
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: This is what the bubble exists though, when people are
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: talking about pick and plays all day instead of actually
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: digging into stuff like this is my whole point. I
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: literally don't care what he did last year, in the
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: year before here, it has nothing to do with it.
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: And everyone just leaning on last week because he's cheap
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: in a bomber, he's probably got the safety to make
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: the cut here like it's toasty, he bombs it.
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: I get it. He's done well here in the past.
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: But the last week at the Valspar the thirtieth, just
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: again it's the only turn of and he's even made
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: the cut it in his last like ten events. Okay,
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: what happened round one part and lost almost a stroke?
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: Where was it he started gained almost a stroke putting.
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: Round two, he sneaks in to make the cut, gaining
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: almost three strokes with the putter. This is not even
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: his game. That's just you know, that's part of it.
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: If it happens, it happens.
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: He gets hot.
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: Round three, he lost stats across the board except for
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: off the tee, which is what you expect him, but
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: literally did nothing, lost over a stroke entirely across the board,
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: and then had a pretty decent round four, but it
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: was actually not the best off the tee. So it's like,
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: all this stuff is random. What we're trying to say
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: is off of one event, it doesn't like That's where
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: I'm saying it runs me into more trouble than like
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: trusting a guy up top, where it's like the thirty
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: to forty percent up top is probably gonna make the
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: cut and then get through for you. It's just then
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: how do they compare against those around him? We saw
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: a couple of weeks ago with outside of the WD
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: on Moricala, but Morikawa and see Wu, you could just
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: play Xander and in between and maybe more healthy had
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: been healthy comes through and does really well and that
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: changes that too. But it's kind of just pointing out
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: of where you can make these choices. All I'm saying
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: is I'd be less likely to do this down low
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: banking on. But Toasty did well here too the last
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: two years and played good last week.
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: One time, when you have literally forty fifty golfers within
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: three hundred dollars of either way and you can easily
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: find a different.
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: Lineup, could Toasty still do it? Absolutely he can, so
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: think about that when you're building your lineup. But this
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: is not the reason to lean on him. That's just
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: the excuse of why you are leaning on him.
• 25:33
  Speaker 4: The nice thing about TOASTI is we at least have
• 25:36
  Speaker 4: seen that like this is his style of course, when
• 25:39
  Speaker 4: distance matters a lot more than accuracy, that's when we've
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: seen him do well.
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: He also finished tenth in Mexico last year.
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: But also true last year is that his approach play
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: was actually pretty good leading into this event, and it
• 25:50
  Speaker 4: was pretty good at Mexico, and it was even good
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: at the players when he didn't drive the ball well.
• 25:55
  Speaker 4: So he missed the cut there last year, but he
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: was great here last year because there's a pro coach.
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: Play was great.
• 26:00
  Speaker 4: He gained over a stroke per round. His approach play
• 26:03
  Speaker 4: has been atrocious this year. So he goes from someone
• 26:06
  Speaker 4: who last year was probably projecting pretty well in our
• 26:11
  Speaker 4: stuff because distance and approach play that's what he does,
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: or that's what he was doing last year, so he's
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: going to project well.
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: This year he projects horribly because.
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: Yeah, the distance is there, but the approach plays awful,
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: and approach plays even more predictive relative to baseline than
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: distances here. So yeah, I have no interest in toasting,
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: not because of some kind of ownership thing. It's not
• 26:31
  Speaker 4: like he's going to be anywhere near popular enough where
• 26:34
  Speaker 4: you have to faid and base on ownership just because
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: distance is not all that matters here. You still have
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: to be a good golfer, and he right now, he's
• 26:41
  Speaker 4: just not that.
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and there's something other that like I would, I
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: would honestly rather play your boy Jasper than him for
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: a little bit more. And he's with talking just guys
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: that have ownership. Like still then there's like forty names,
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: like I said, legit, forty names. To Ryan's point there
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: of all around him that you could roll into it.
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: But all my point was, I do believe data is
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: super important in golf.
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: It literally can push you in the right directions.
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: I understand that the club head speed and the driving
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: distance and the course fit that like all that stuff
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: would lead to him. I'm saying you still have to
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: then consider the eight percent ownership if that's what it
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: ends up being, or five percent or whatever it ends
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: up probably comes in at like five or six realistically.
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: But my point being it's not saying I wouldn't play him.
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: I'm saying it's I'd be very cognizant of when I
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: do play him, what the rest of my lineup looks like.
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: Because if you're just gonna plug him in with men
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: Wu and god her Up and Nap and whoever else
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: a girard and all the chalk which you're about to
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: get to, it'll be a good segue. Then that makes
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: your lineups not really not really look up as good, right,
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: And I think this is just you know, jam Eagle
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: says this, and people are talking about Meisner Maw these
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: types of guys, anyone else not talking about it. No
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: matter who talks about these guys outside of like Spenson
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: and Toasty, I don't think any of them will get ownership.
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: So literally, just play whoever you want and build your
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: lineup accordingly with what you've got in there, because the
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: result will matter in the end, but we don't know
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: the result going in, so we're working full off of
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: process and that's the key to the show and what
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: we go through.
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: So do you want to tie that quickly to min Wu?
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: I just think there's an interesting conversation around that, and
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: that's a good starting point for this. Then we could
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: talk some weather and anything else. I think course fit
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: has been kind of hammered through. But like the min
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: Wu factor, like I was trying to say earlier, he
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: was gonna be owned anyway.
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: He was forty to.
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: One here last year when he won, Like it wasn't
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: like he was some shocker surprise. I mean, he wasn't
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: a ten to one like he is now. But that's
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: Scottie related. I think he was nineteen when it opened up.
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: It was like, so it's all baked in. But a
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: lot of people like heard me mention yesterday. I thought,
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: I said him in midas quordal over a ship in nation.
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: I said, man, it was some interesting comments. It was
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: like people were talking about Lowry at the Cognizant where
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: it was this type of setup of a ninety nine
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: hundred dollars Golfer and then nobody down below, and you
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: know he got to forty percent, Girard got to forty,
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: or it was forty one for Lowry and forty for
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: Girard and Hogard was thirty and stuff like that.
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: But like min Wu coming in, I'm not I'm the
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: opposite of what I just said about the toasty thing,
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: Like I legit saying I'm the same moment I should say,
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: like I'm more on the opposite side.
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: But it I don't care that he won here last year.
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: I think it's more impressive the second, the twelfth, the sixth,
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: the results he's putting up in the field strengths he's
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: been in of these signature events and things and now
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: coming in here and getting a field like this to himself,
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: where yeah, people say that it is a little bit stronger,
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: for sure, if you look up the numbers, it's a
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: little bit stronger on paper too. But I'm just saying
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: you can build lineups with min Wu this week and
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: get different elsewhere. It's definitely still a possibility. Plenty of
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: ways actually you can go with building with him.
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: Min Wu to me, is all about whether you're buying
• 29:32
  Speaker 4: the approach improvement or not, because it's only six events
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: so far this year, one of which we didn't even
• 29:40
  Speaker 4: have shot link data for two of his rounds at
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: the Amex. So he's gained in four of the six
• 29:45
  Speaker 4: events with his approach play. He's gained significantly in two
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: of the six. He's lost pretty significantly in two of
• 29:52
  Speaker 4: the six. Are you buying the improvement or are you
• 29:55
  Speaker 4: saying this is a sixth event sample. It's not even
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: like he's been con consistently great. He's had two really
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: bad events with the approach play. He's just spiked twice
• 30:05
  Speaker 4: and that's why it looks good, and we've seen him
• 30:07
  Speaker 4: spike in the past. And then it goes from, you know,
• 30:10
  Speaker 4: a full stroke gained per round to a full stroke
• 30:12
  Speaker 4: gloss parround in the next event and the next three events,
• 30:14
  Speaker 4: things of that nature. And so whether or not you're
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: playing min Wu, I think just all comes down to
• 30:19
  Speaker 4: your belief in the approach play improvement. If you're all
• 30:22
  Speaker 4: in on the approach play improvement and you think this
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: is the new min Wu, he's actually going to gain
• 30:26
  Speaker 4: quite frequently, then he's not bad. Chalk at that number
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: doesn't mean you have to play him like. I wouldn't
• 30:31
  Speaker 4: say that makes him a core play or a priority
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: by any means, But if you're at all hesitant on
• 30:38
  Speaker 4: the approach play, if you're all skeptical, then I think
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: he's a pretty easy fade. And that's the category that
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: I'm in.
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah. The bigger thing, too, is also what's around him
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: that you can still go to. I'm just saying again
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: another point like the other side, like, don't be shocked
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: if he comes through. It's like people will get so
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: mad if he comes through. It's like you watched Lowry
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: almost win at that ownership, you watched thirty fits win
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: last week, Like, it wouldn't shock me if he does
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: come through. I don't think it'll be because he won
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: here last year. It will end up being like you said,
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: probably because he still does vomit off the tee and
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: can do that, but his approach play has been better.
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: It was it was mediocre last event out and he
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: was still in the mix. But the events before that,
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: like the API and Pebble, it was dialed in and.
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: Everything else was too.
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: And obviously those resulting like second and sixth place, if
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: that happens, you're gonna be in pretty good shape. But
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: I think the other thing around him is like, you know,
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: got her up. If you're just going to god, you're
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: just at that to me when someone's like I'd rather
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: have got up have than do that or play them
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: both or whatever you decide about. My point being, you're
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: not like getting some ownership discount. Really like, it looks
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: like both them in high stakes could be twenty five
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: to thirty five range, and I'm putting a wider range
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: on just to say it's, you know, somewhere in that
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: middle ground. So it's kind of like pick your poison
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: at that point. So, oh, goddar Up wins more. Goddard's
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: won more recently it said all those factors are true,
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: and if that's what you like, I would roll with it.
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: But then you also have Sam Burns right below it.
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: You've got the Brooks Keepka factor.
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: Where what I mean by that the Brooks Keepka factor
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: is the medium p is not going to show up.
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: When we talked earlier about safe versus the upside.
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: One thing about Brooks, the only thing that's really been
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: off for him these last day is the driver and
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: the thing that you can be off with a little
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: bit more here is the driver the way it sets up,
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: so maybe that's better for him, and he comes through
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: at ninety six hundred where he just can't be opened. Right,
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: You've got Jake Knapp, you've got got her up, you
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: got Lee, so you've got burns and kepkus kind of
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: squeezed in between. That I think are pretty interesting if
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: you're going into that nine k range there as well.
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: Anything else you want to talk about on this current topic.
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: If not, let's talk a little just anything you see
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: with the weather or anything more you want to add
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: with course fit, and then we'll go into the chalk build.
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: It does look like we might get a wave advantage
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: this week.
• 32:39
  Speaker 4: It depends on the weather model that you're looking at,
• 32:42
  Speaker 4: but it seems like the windiest conditions are going to
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: be tomorrow afternoon, so Thursday afternoon, and then it seems
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: like Thursday or Friday afternoon might actually be a little
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: bit calmer than Friday morning, and so we might get
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: the peak wins on the pm AM wave and the
• 33:01
  Speaker 4: lightest wins on the AMPM wave. So if we get
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: kind of that double duty, if you will, then we
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: get a really nice wave advantage for the AMPM group.
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: So that currently is very much on my mind and
• 33:19
  Speaker 4: in our ownership over at FTEN. I do have that
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: factored in a little bit where I do anticipate the
• 33:25
  Speaker 4: field having a preference for that wave.
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: But it doesn't look like.
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: It's going to be, you know, anything remotely close to
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: even what we had at Sawgrass, where you know, thirteen
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: percent of lineups were heavier on one of the waves
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: and something like sixty some percent was heavier on the
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: other wave. I think it was even more. I think
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: it was like sixty seven percent was heavier on the
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: one wave. So I don't think we'll see anything close
• 33:49
  Speaker 4: to that, and that means that if you want to
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: go in on this wave stack, I think it's a
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: very viable path this week.
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's funny, but you know, people do it
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: on the weeks when everyone's talking about it, and they
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: don't do it on the weeks, and I've done it
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: for results. I've been a part of my success in
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: the PGAD offst Streets has certainly just been doing that
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: or if it just lands that way, and I think
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: that can be like tie breakers and stuff as well.
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: We've had these conversations on previous shows. I think it
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: was two weeks ago. We had this conversation the big
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: wave advantage one. So if you want to go back
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: and check that out, you guys can. It's just the
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: first part. The time stamps will be there. Just look
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: up Leverage Lane and the Ship and Nation YouTube channel.
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: But if you see that. I usually like it when
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: it's pm am, just naturally. I think about the mental
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: state of a golfer, which again it's not like I
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: could get into that mind. I know you could personally
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: being a pro yourself, but like I think it's when
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: you just got when you got to go oute on
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: a you have a decent Thursday afternoon or good enough,
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: and you gotta go out Friday morning and just set
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: the tone. It's like, look, I don't have to chase
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: a number. I don't know what I need to be
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: at exactly. I kind of have an idea and let
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: me go set the tone and see what happens versus
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: Oh shit, I need to get the three under and
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: I got five holes left.
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: Pressure, pressure, pressure, It's golf.
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: Anything can happen, right, some mind games. So I think
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: that's something to think about. But I usually like it
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: when it's that way. If it is AMPM and you're
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: you're looking at your lineups and you you know, are
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: going that route anyway. I got no problem finishing out
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: your build that way if you land there, all right,
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: So with all that said, let's go look at the
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: chalk build and see what you think.
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: I think the setup looks pretty straightforward at least somewhat.
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: But what are you seeing and thinking off the top,
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: what's your first thoughts on what the chalk build looks like.
• 35:17
  Speaker 4: We just have so much chalk in the nine K
• 35:19
  Speaker 4: range that I think what we'll see is either one
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: of Minwu and got her up and then one of
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: Nap Fowler, Kittiyama Nikolai, or we might see people try
• 35:30
  Speaker 4: to get three of that second group where it's a
• 35:32
  Speaker 4: more balanced lineup and it's you know, three of Nap Fowler, Kittiyama, Hooyguard,
• 35:37
  Speaker 4: or maybe they can't do that, so it's two of
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: those guys and then one of like Griffin thorpe Bjornson
• 35:42
  Speaker 4: Gerard that group. But I mean, we're obviously locked into
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: balance bills because you can't spend on anybody over ten
• 35:49
  Speaker 4: thousand dollars, so it's a little pointless to say we're
• 35:52
  Speaker 4: gonna see a lot of balanced builds this week, but
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: I do I think we're gonna see a lot of
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: a lot of lineups that bottom out out in the
• 36:00
  Speaker 4: seven K range and maybe only have one or two
• 36:03
  Speaker 4: guys in that range, and they just hammer the the
• 36:05
  Speaker 4: eight nine K range because they're they're as we talked about, like,
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: there are so many guys in this eight to nine
• 36:09
  Speaker 4: K range who if this tournament was priced without Scotty involved,
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: they'd all be five hundred, two thousand dollars more. Like
• 36:17
  Speaker 4: we'd see you know, uh Minwu Lee would be ten
• 36:19
  Speaker 4: five minimum or something like that. We'd see Ben Griffin
• 36:23
  Speaker 4: would probably be like ninety two ninety three. We'd see
• 36:25
  Speaker 4: thorpe Bjornson at ninety or ninety one.
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: Something like that.
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: And so all of these guys are really compressed because
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: of Scotty, and it's just gonna make it a lot
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: easier to kind of jam pack them all together.
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, this question came up because I just asked it.
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: But you know, I'm curious, yeay, what is your take
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: on it? I don't know, like if I fully agree
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: with new Ones anyway, not that there's something to agree
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: with you, just noting like to me, when you start
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: in the PM on Thursday, I don't really feel like
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: you're chasing a leader, even though factually you are. But
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: it's like, when we think about it, it's DFS related,
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: So it's always what like you got to make the
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: cut anything to matter. So I always feel like the
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: PM AM guy is the one that sets the tone,
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: and it's actually the AMPM guy that now knows when
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: he goes out on Friday, I have to basically hit
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: a number to even have a chance to worry about
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: a leaderboard on the weekend.
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: But what's your thoughts on I'm curious now that we
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: got you here.
• 37:17
  Speaker 4: I like the late early more than the early late,
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: but not for the reasons that have have been discussed.
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: It's I don't think it's about.
• 37:28
  Speaker 4: When you're on the course and tracking down the cut line, because,
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: for one thing, even when you're playing in the morning,
• 37:35
  Speaker 4: you have a very good sense of what the cut's
• 37:37
  Speaker 4: going to be, so like and if the whole idea
• 37:41
  Speaker 4: is that it might be a little bit harder to
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: play well when you're under the pressure of making the cut,
• 37:46
  Speaker 4: like you you get that in the morning too.
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: You get it just as much because you know you're
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: at least around the cut.
• 37:51
  Speaker 4: Where I think it's a lot favorable and I think
• 37:54
  Speaker 4: most guys would agree with this, is that it's just
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: the shorter turnaround, Like it's it's not an issue on
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: Thursday morning to have to wait till the afternoon to
• 38:04
  Speaker 4: tee off because the tournament hasn't started yet. It's really
• 38:07
  Speaker 4: nice to then play, go, get dinner, sleep, wake up
• 38:11
  Speaker 4: and play. You stay in rhythm. You don't have to
• 38:14
  Speaker 4: think about your your around too very much. When you
• 38:17
  Speaker 4: play early Thursday, then you have to figure out what
• 38:20
  Speaker 4: to do with the rest of your day. Then you sleep,
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: wake up in the morning, figure out what the hell
• 38:25
  Speaker 4: to do with in the morning, all the like. Because
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: the thing is for all of Thursday, afternoon and evening
• 38:31
  Speaker 4: and then Friday morning, your mind can't leave the fact
• 38:34
  Speaker 4: that you're in a golf tournament and that you have to,
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: you know, perform the next day.
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: So it's that's what's on your mind.
• 38:39
  Speaker 4: It's not like you can just go have a really
• 38:41
  Speaker 4: fun day and not think about it and then you know,
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: refocus the next day once it's time to That's on
• 38:45
  Speaker 4: your mind the whole time, just like anything in life
• 38:48
  Speaker 4: that you're stressed about is always constantly there on your mind,
• 38:51
  Speaker 4: and so that just becomes a little bit tiresome. And
• 38:53
  Speaker 4: then at the other point is like, if you played
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: really well on Thursday morning, you want to get right
• 38:58
  Speaker 4: back out there, and similar actually if you play poorly.
• 39:00
  Speaker 4: If you play poorly, you want to immediately go change
• 39:02
  Speaker 4: that mojo so well, and you just have to wait
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: so so long it almost feels like you took you know,
• 39:07
  Speaker 4: a full day off by the time you're back on
• 39:09
  Speaker 4: the course Thursday after or Friday afternoon.
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: So I prefer later early, but it's for a different reason.
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: And I also think too that I've always thought about
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: this as well. Again I don't know anything about this.
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: I just think it's the way I think about it
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: and would think about it.
• 39:19
  Speaker 3: It's like you also, when you start PM on Thursday,
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: you get to see how the course plays in the
• 39:24
  Speaker 3: morning to know how to play in the after again
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: doesn't mean it'll be that way, but even when you
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: play the next morning, you've also seen how it's played
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: in the if the conditions are similar. Using a week
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: like that where it's kind of a better thing for
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: you just kind of give more information as well, and
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: then you just go and do it like you said.
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: It's play eat sleep, eat, play.
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: Or whatever that looks like and then and move on.
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: It's like you get to kind of roll through with
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: all the momentum.
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: So the chat's talking about it.
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: I mean, I could see where it's like a min
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: Wu and then maybe people do go to like a
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: thor with Gerard or something. But I guess I do
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: think more will start with two nine ks. So if
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: you think that, do you think it's app or Kitti
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: Yama that gets more love as the second guy in,
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: or do you think it's all the way up to
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: got her up just because they're both so popular that
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: they'll become popular as a combo.
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: I mean, I've got I've got all of Nap Fowler, Kittiama,
• 40:12
  Speaker 4: Nikolay all twenty plus and single entry and between twenty
• 40:16
  Speaker 4: two and twenty six percent. I think Nikolay might actually
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: be the most popular of that group. But we're splitting
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: hairs here. I mean, they're they're all going to be popular,
• 40:24
  Speaker 4: They're all going to be in a lot of different lineups.
• 40:25
  Speaker 4: The one that I wouldn't be shocked if he slipped
• 40:28
  Speaker 4: through the cracks would be Ricky And then the other
• 40:31
  Speaker 4: one would potentially be either Brooks or Nap, just because
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: if people really get in on the wavestac idea that hey,
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: you know what, there is going to be an advantage
• 40:41
  Speaker 4: for the AMPM group, then Nap and Brooks could slip
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: through the cracks. But again, like I think Brooks certainly
• 40:48
  Speaker 4: has a chance to be fairly low, Nap foul just
• 40:53
  Speaker 4: to say.
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: That, I don't I don't think. I don't believe any
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: Brooks ownership right now. Anyway, because the projected again we
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: live in a bubble. You will hear more people talking
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: about him this week. You will actually hear more people
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: betting him this week, and that's because the odds are
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: all related to that, and for good reason, like if
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: he's gonna win, let's just have the betting rights betting
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: out right on him. But also it's like they people
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: have already bet him for the Masters. People have already
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: got ahead on all the majors. People were betting him
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: last week. So it's like that's the difference where that's
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: and then don't forget Some people then rely on that
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: to say, Okay, I've already bet this guy, don't need
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: to play him in DFS or I'm gonna move to
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: this instead, So I could definitely don't see anywhere where
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: he actually gets the ownership because I just think it
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: has to go to Minwu got her up Nap, and
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: even if Nap comes down, I think it leads more
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: to Nikolai and Kidiyama and like whoever projects the best.
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I don't see that. And I actually think
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: Burns could be a little bit overlooked as well. So
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: I guess like I wouldn't hate starting lineup with Burns
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: or even like a gotterr up Burns if you wanted
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: to or something like that, but that's another unique way
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: to go this week.
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: I think that would be different.
• 41:52
  Speaker 4: Yeah. One of the things I will say about this
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: week is because ownership is so kind of condensed up top,
• 41:57
  Speaker 4: and there are so many guys who are popular, there
• 42:01
  Speaker 4: is higher than usual risk of guys who are projected
• 42:05
  Speaker 4: at at least comparatively low ownership to the guys around them,
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: of them steaming like crazy, because anybody who's looking at
• 42:11
  Speaker 4: the top of the board is going to say, oh,
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: if I want to get contrarion up here, I'm either
• 42:15
  Speaker 4: using Sam Burns or Brooks Koepka. So if if enough
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: people just make the decision that they want to get contrarion.
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: There are only two guys they can go to, So
• 42:24
  Speaker 4: both of those guys have a chance of coming in
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: a lot higher than we are currently estimating. And I
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: think it could happen to both of those guys, but
• 42:30
  Speaker 4: I'm really worried that it's going to happen to Burns
• 42:32
  Speaker 4: where we all think we're getting Burns fifteen seventeen percent
• 42:35
  Speaker 4: something like that, and he hands up twenty five to
• 42:36
  Speaker 4: thirty just because everyone had the exact same thought. So
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: that's definitely somebody to watch out for this week.
• 42:43
  Speaker 5: I'm just trying to see if there's one more version
• 42:46
  Speaker 5: of it I can find, and I can't. Man, it
• 42:49
  Speaker 5: is tricky, Like it makes me wonder about like if
• 42:52
  Speaker 5: the do you think there's any possibility that min Wu
• 42:56
  Speaker 5: ends up coming like third highest owned because of like
• 43:00
  Speaker 5: you know, people do land on like the Naps or
• 43:02
  Speaker 5: the Nicolayes or something like in the eight K, like
• 43:04
  Speaker 5: meaning that they'll just help boost it some because if
• 43:06
  Speaker 5: you build like like a yagger Fox Thigala, like do
• 43:11
  Speaker 5: a bottom up build here of like okay, who are
• 43:13
  Speaker 5: kind of the popular seven K guys and then you
• 43:16
  Speaker 5: go to like a mid range in Girard or whoever,
• 43:19
  Speaker 5: like you still kind of land on, like you could
• 43:21
  Speaker 5: get like Nap Hoguard and Gerard for example.
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: Here here's an example.
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: You could get Nap Hoguard Nicolai that is Girard, and
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: then that would get you Thigala Yager Fox. And yes
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: there's variations of this certainly. I'm just saying like, if
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: you're if your Fox is a seven K guy, then yes,
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: you can immediately move from Nap up to min Wu.
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: And I guess that's kind of the thought process. Who's
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: your who's your most popular guy? If I if I
• 43:47
  Speaker 3: take out Fox and Nap, I think the Gala and
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: Yagger will definitely be popular in the seven point one
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: range of like Bez and who else is down You're like, man,
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: it's yellow Miraju at seventy two hundred and I just
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: can't quite fit them. That's what I was trying to
• 44:06
  Speaker 3: get to one hundred bucks off.
• 44:09
  Speaker 4: I mean beyond that, there's no one over five percent
• 44:11
  Speaker 4: for us in single entries.
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: So there you go, Like even then min Wu becomes
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: gotter Up in that example, but you you could have
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: gottter Up Nikolai and then you'd get Girard Thigala or
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: Yagger Thigala and Yella and that kind of rounds it.
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: It's like it's my my point would be too.
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: And then I guess the other thing about that is
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: if the tea time thing does become talked about a
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: little bit more, I could see where this all pulls
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: min Wu down just a little bit, I'm saying, and
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: it's like, okay, then people will settle on stuff blow.
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: Plus there's gonna be people that just.
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: Hate min Wu aut an ownership. Like I said, all right,
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: like that's that's stupid. It's only because of this I
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: get all that. So like to me, I could definitely
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: see where these end up the builds. So let's just
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: say that there's multiple variations. If it's min Wu for you, you
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: can obviously find one hundred bucks. I'm just using this
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: with goterr Up. I'm just saying you can get a
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: gotter Up Nikolai with Girard Thigala Yella. Whatever you disagree
• 45:02
  Speaker 3: with us on in this example. And I'm putting us
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: in the bucket here just to make time fly. But
• 45:06
  Speaker 3: I'm saying like, whatever you disagree with you can obviously
• 45:08
  Speaker 3: find it. What we're seeing though is probably two nine
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: k's with three seven k's is kind of popular, and
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: maybe there's a two eight k version where people switch
• 45:19
  Speaker 3: it up, right, whoever that is they go to and
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: you end up with that. But I do think this
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: is going to be a little bit more popular that we.
• 45:26
  Speaker 4: See this, right, Yeah, And to your point, so I
• 45:30
  Speaker 4: think number one to answer your question, yes, I think
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: there's absolutely a chance that Mini winds up like only
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: the third highest own guy. And to that point, we
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: only have him at thirty one point four percent in
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: single entry. You talked earlier about the fact that like
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: he might go from thirty to forty because of Scotti,
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: we don't have him projected to do any we're close
• 45:46
  Speaker 4: to that. I think for us, he went from thirty
• 45:47
  Speaker 4: point six percent to thirty one point four percent in
• 45:50
  Speaker 4: single entries, so really small piece of the pie in
• 45:53
  Speaker 4: and part of that is sorry I was talking.
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: High stakes too, just to note, like I think you'll
• 45:57
  Speaker 3: we have him at twenty eight right now in the law,
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: but it's like, I.
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: Don't know what I mean.
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: I'm sure he's over thirty when it comes currently when
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: it comes to high stakes or like the satellites and
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: the big time stuff like that.
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: So it's really just weirre does he actually end up?
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: Now I'm starting to think it does stay lower thirties
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: even in that stuff, and it could come down to
• 46:15
  Speaker 3: like the twenty five range, twenty eight range somewhere in
• 46:18
  Speaker 3: there for the lotteries and stuff, just because there's so
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: many other ways you can go.
• 46:22
  Speaker 4: And to your point, we have him at thirty two
• 46:24
  Speaker 4: point two percent in our new high stakes ownership, and
• 46:27
  Speaker 4: part of that is because I'm already projecting a little
• 46:30
  Speaker 4: bit of a field preference towards the other wave that
• 46:32
  Speaker 4: he's not a part of. And so if the field
• 46:36
  Speaker 4: gravitates towards that route even more, then that thirty one
• 46:39
  Speaker 4: and thirty two percent in single entry and high stakes
• 46:40
  Speaker 4: could end up you know, twenty five and twenty five
• 46:42
  Speaker 4: or maybe even twenty in one of them.
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: And that's one of the things.
• 46:45
  Speaker 4: That like, we'll see that effect more prevalent in high
• 46:51
  Speaker 4: stakes than single entry because the high stakes players are
• 46:54
  Speaker 4: more likely to take these you know, ADVANCITYAFA strategies, not
• 46:56
  Speaker 4: that stacking is that an advance of a strategy, but
• 46:58
  Speaker 4: they're more likely to take a DFS strategy approach than
• 47:02
  Speaker 4: a picking their favorite players approach, and so wave stacking
• 47:05
  Speaker 4: obviously falls under that umbrella. And so maybe we'll seem
• 47:10
  Speaker 4: a much lower owned Minu than the field is currently expecting.
• 47:13
  Speaker 4: And again that wouldn't necessarily mean that I want to
• 47:16
  Speaker 4: play him, just because he's still going to be somewhat owned.
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: And as you mentioned, like he's he very much.
• 47:20
  Speaker 4: Profiles as one of those guys that you play him
• 47:21
  Speaker 4: when he's contrarion now when he's chocky, because of how
• 47:24
  Speaker 4: LOLd till he is.
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and Timmy just brought it up. I think Fox
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: will be more popular than Jordan Smith at seventy four hundred.
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: But if you just pick your poison there, whatever you
• 47:32
  Speaker 3: want to do, my takeaway would be that lineup so
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: you can get Mid, Mouli, Jake Nap.
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: It still fits the same thing we said.
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: Two nine to three sevens is gonna be very popular
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: because you have Mid Move Jake Nap, then you go
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: to Gerard and then it's Thigala, Fox and Yella and
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: that would round it out as well. So I mean,
• 47:49
  Speaker 3: either way you can see what's happening here is one
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: to two eight K guys. I'll talk more when I
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: get to my lane later, which people can probably pick apart,
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: but it's not just for that reason.
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: I just want to note it for other reasons when
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: we get there.
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: But there's definitely ways to leverage this, and I think
• 48:03
  Speaker 3: you know just one of the key things too, is
• 48:04
  Speaker 3: when there's so many nine K guys, people do a
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: lot of decision making like, oh, it has to be
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: got Her. We've talked about plenty in the past. It's
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: got to be got Her up versus Lee. There's not
• 48:13
  Speaker 3: a matchup bet here, like you're building a lot up
• 48:15
  Speaker 3: with six guys and do of course there is salary constraints,
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: so you have to consider that. But it could be
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: min Wu nap and then you land with seven point seven.
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: We just saw how that played out. Well, what if
• 48:25
  Speaker 3: you add I don't know, let's see what we can
• 48:28
  Speaker 3: do here, Ricky, And then you go to like Ben Griffin.
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: Well that's six point two K. Maybe that's not good enough.
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: All right, let's go down. Let's go to Sam Stevens. Well,
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: now you have six point seven K left to round
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: it out. You've got an upper seven K guy where
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: most aren't landing. If they are, they're landing on Yager
• 48:44
  Speaker 3: who's seventy eight, you have someone who's not him, and
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: then you still have two guys in the upper six
• 48:49
  Speaker 3: k range that if you found something there, you could
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: get there.
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: But just just noting it from that perspective, and Coach,
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: you've been with me a very long time.
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: We never say who we're doing what with, Like it's
• 48:59
  Speaker 3: at the end of the day, there's I'm gonna talk
• 49:01
  Speaker 3: about Toasty and I'm sure in mm me, in my
• 49:03
  Speaker 3: one fifty set, he'll end up in Toasty lineups, meaning
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: there'll be ones that I build accordingly, but there's no
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: specific mention to it, because it's like.
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: All just what can you do?
• 49:11
  Speaker 3: You pick your lane right, you decide so that would
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: be the bill Alex, So any other ways you can
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: think to leverage it in a single entry perspective that
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: you want to bring up and then if you hit
• 49:19
  Speaker 3: my lane, it's why I already know what I like anyway,
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: so it's gonna be pretty clear cut for me this week.
• 49:25
  Speaker 4: Well, I'll add something else instead, and that is there's
• 49:28
  Speaker 4: a group of guys nap thorpe Bjornson and Coody whose
• 49:33
  Speaker 4: ownership is all really really tied to what the field
• 49:36
  Speaker 4: decides to do with the waves, because they're all in
• 49:38
  Speaker 4: this quote unquote wrong wave, and so if the field
• 49:42
  Speaker 4: is not, if the field doesn't care about the wave,
• 49:47
  Speaker 4: that I in the way that I currently expect them to.
• 49:50
  Speaker 4: Although those guys are gonna end up a lot more
• 49:52
  Speaker 4: popular than I currently have them projected, and they all
• 49:54
  Speaker 4: could end at being amongst the most popular on the slate.
• 49:57
  Speaker 4: Minwhu is also in that group as well, so you know,
• 50:00
  Speaker 4: we could end up seeing a forty percent min Wu,
• 50:03
  Speaker 4: a thirty percent Nap, a twenty five percent thor Bjornson,
• 50:06
  Speaker 4: and a twenty percent Cootie. For example, if if I'm
• 50:09
  Speaker 4: wrong about the wave currently and so and the other
• 50:12
  Speaker 4: thing there is, like I'm phrasing this me being wrong currently,
• 50:15
  Speaker 4: but I might change what I'm expecting from the field
• 50:19
  Speaker 4: tonight if the forecasts change, and so you know, I,
• 50:22
  Speaker 4: by tonight I might have all those guys projected where
• 50:25
  Speaker 4: I just mentioned. And so that's very much something to
• 50:27
  Speaker 4: look for, and that would change the common build because
• 50:31
  Speaker 4: if if all of a sudden, Cooty and thorpe Bjornson
• 50:33
  Speaker 4: are really really popular plays, those guys are are even
• 50:37
  Speaker 4: easier to fit than some of the guys that we
• 50:39
  Speaker 4: were talking about earlier, like the Nikolai and Kiddi Yama
• 50:41
  Speaker 4: and Fowler grouping.
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: So yeah, that would that would.
• 50:45
  Speaker 4: Make it even easier for people to then just kind
• 50:46
  Speaker 4: of cram as many guys in the eight to nine
• 50:49
  Speaker 4: K range as they possibly can.
• 50:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and I'll definitely be talking about the six K
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: range more in a second when I get there, so
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: you know, definitely that. And again because it's not again,
• 50:58
  Speaker 3: this is what we say all the time. I'm Andrews,
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: like what it's people talk a lot of shit, they're
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: not about it.
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: You go to just go to.
• 51:05
  Speaker 3: A game when somebody's talking shit to you at the
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: sports place that you're at, and they start talking shit,
• 51:09
  Speaker 3: and then see if a fight actually happens. It doesn't
• 51:11
  Speaker 3: often happen. It's a lot of talk, So just keep
• 51:14
  Speaker 3: that in mind. In DFS, there's a lot of people
• 51:16
  Speaker 3: talking about a lot of things, not a lot of
• 51:18
  Speaker 3: people actually execute or action them. Some people actually talk
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: about DFS and don't even play, so you know, keep
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: watching those shows too while you're at it.
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: But just noting it.
• 51:25
  Speaker 3: I think it's important to remember it's not always just
• 51:29
  Speaker 3: that narrative. It's in this case people would look at
• 51:31
  Speaker 3: it as a price play, right, eighty four hundred dollars
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: for Gerard, he's the average price. Basically he fits any
• 51:36
  Speaker 3: style of build. That's where people feel safer because they should.
• 51:39
  Speaker 3: He's probably way more. I mean, I got it up here,
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: now I can pull it up.
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: Just let me see if we go to Girard, he's
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: the highest odds to make the cut. We actually have
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: higher odds to make the cut than pretty much anyone
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: up to the nine k.
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: Range, right like right there, Like he's for making the cut,
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: what he actually ends up doing and what you know
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: the results because of that, if he's needed all of
• 52:02
  Speaker 3: those factors. That's a prime example of somebody earlier where
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: we talked about the example of like the safety versus
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: the ceiling. It's like people will definitely take him for
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: the safety play because he feels a lot better than
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: clicking Wyndham Clark right there. But what can Wyndham Clark
• 52:17
  Speaker 3: do if it's a Wyndham Clark week and he's actually on, well,
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: the sky's the limit, right, you'd have to wait and see.
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: So that's kind of the thought process there. The Rasmus
• 52:24
  Speaker 3: is the Keith Mitchell's all that. And by the way,
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: the ownership saw like super high on Gerard right now,
• 52:29
  Speaker 3: and we just showed you how he doesn't even really
• 52:31
  Speaker 3: you know, he fits those builds exact but after that,
• 52:34
  Speaker 3: it's not like people are using him a ton.
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: So I think that's something to consider as well. Anything
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: else you want to talk about with how to leverage it?
• 52:41
  Speaker 3: If not, I do want to talk a little bit
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: about one and done this week. I think you know,
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: we've had some good conversations around it in the past.
• 52:47
  Speaker 3: But anything else from the DFS perspective that you want
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: to bring up here, No.
• 52:50
  Speaker 4: My leverage lane is going to be how to leverage it,
• 52:53
  Speaker 4: So we'll talk more about that.
• 52:55
  Speaker 3: All right, Let's talk about one and done. One thing
• 52:57
  Speaker 3: I'm really realizing, and that's like the kind of thoughts back.
• 53:00
  Speaker 3: It kind of does tie on what almost became our
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: topic today of like safety versus you know, what people
• 53:05
  Speaker 3: are talking about, what others are doing and all that.
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: I know you've talked about it in the past. I'm
• 53:08
  Speaker 3: certain that the bombers are gonna be popular and one
• 53:11
  Speaker 3: and done this week because it's been talked about a
• 53:13
  Speaker 3: ton and it just makes sense.
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: We get it. We've explained that, and you know, beat
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: the horse to death if you will.
• 53:18
  Speaker 3: But just to note it, these events that don't have
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: the big paydays, it kind of does pay to just
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: collect the money and move on, right like we saw it.
• 53:27
  Speaker 3: I'm not sure if I fully went into it last week.
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: I can't remember not but I even sent it to
• 53:31
  Speaker 3: my dad to show up, and I thought it was
• 53:32
  Speaker 3: really interesting. Is like the winner of the one and
• 53:35
  Speaker 3: done's the last couple of years. It's like it's all
• 53:37
  Speaker 3: just tied to signature events, right, you got.
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: To hit those and you could be the winner.
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: Last year in the big one on Splash had like
• 53:44
  Speaker 3: nobody had a million dollars or less in the first
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: eight to ten events, like my players, they didn't even
• 53:49
  Speaker 3: have a million bucks yet are just over then won
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: five signature events and picked up another one point two
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: or one point five down the stretch across some of
• 53:57
  Speaker 3: the weaker tournaments, didn't even have the strong finish at
• 53:59
  Speaker 3: the big tournament like the big tournaments at the end,
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: and still won the whole thing by two point five million.
• 54:04
  Speaker 3: So at these events, I do think there is some
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: like collect and go, But then factoring in the things
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: you always talk about of Okay, but will you get
• 54:13
  Speaker 3: I don't know, Like min Move's a good example, where
• 54:14
  Speaker 3: else are you using min Wu? I get he's any
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: super popular this week, but where else are you using
• 54:18
  Speaker 3: min Wu? And on top of it, it's like, even
• 54:20
  Speaker 3: if he doesn't win, but he collects you two hundred
• 54:23
  Speaker 3: grand or something like that, like that might be better
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: than you're off the wall pick now.
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: It matters a little bit where you stand currently all that,
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: but what are your one and done thoughts this week?
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: I'm always curious to hear those.
• 54:32
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I'm with you in the sense that
• 54:34
  Speaker 4: I care a little bit less about the ownership of
• 54:37
  Speaker 4: the play this week and much more about am I
• 54:40
  Speaker 4: going to want this player at some elevated event later
• 54:44
  Speaker 4: in the year instead of having used him this week,
• 54:46
  Speaker 4: And so that that ladder variable is what's going to
• 54:49
  Speaker 4: keep me off players more than high expected ownership. But
• 54:53
  Speaker 4: I also think that you know, some of the most
• 54:56
  Speaker 4: popular players this week, I don't really want to use them,
• 54:59
  Speaker 4: so like Minimally, for example, I think he's going to
• 55:02
  Speaker 4: be so over owned that I just don't have interest
• 55:04
  Speaker 4: because I don't think he's that much more likely to
• 55:07
  Speaker 4: win or more likely at all than some of the
• 55:10
  Speaker 4: guys that I can get at much lower ownership. And
• 55:12
  Speaker 4: I do think the kind of corollary to that is
• 55:16
  Speaker 4: it's probably a good idea to try and find a
• 55:18
  Speaker 4: really good player who isn't a bomber this week and
• 55:21
  Speaker 4: just use him. So maybe it's fallor maybe it's Harris
• 55:24
  Speaker 4: English or somebody along those lines, where you're just saying,
• 55:26
  Speaker 4: this guy competes and contends because he's a very good
• 55:29
  Speaker 4: golfer despite the fact that he's not super long off
• 55:32
  Speaker 4: the tee, because ownership is going to be driven by
• 55:34
  Speaker 4: a distance for sure.
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: Here in one and done, do.
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: We still I can't remember we used Valor that week
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: or not in ours? Did we?
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: Let me see, do we have?
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: It's funny you brought him up.
• 55:46
  Speaker 3: I was definitely, you know, a little bit interested in
• 55:49
  Speaker 3: Valor here just for you know, a few reasons, like
• 55:52
  Speaker 3: you said earlier, but just you know, just looking at
• 55:53
  Speaker 3: it from the perspective of playing. Okay, right now, I
• 55:57
  Speaker 3: think he's very capable here, you know, you're talking about
• 56:00
  Speaker 3: like anything you want to roll with, there's a lot
• 56:02
  Speaker 3: of different angles to.
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: Pursue, but also just so close to the Masters.
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: I think Ricky needs a top twenty here or better
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: this week to be able to get into those into
• 56:10
  Speaker 3: the Masters. And I think he's trending in the right direction.
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: So it's like I feel like everything he's done lately,
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: he could still set up well for this course.
• 56:17
  Speaker 4: Yeah, we did use him at the Amex, so we
• 56:19
  Speaker 4: can't use him unfortunately, but uh maybe English, maybe Shane Lowry.
• 56:24
  Speaker 4: I'm not gonna want it Shane Lowry at a signature
• 56:26
  Speaker 4: and I don't I can tell you that much.
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: He's just he doesn't have the stones. It seems so
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: beyond that.
• 56:34
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: What about Adam Scott?
• 56:36
  Speaker 3: The chat said, Adam Scott is my one and done pick,
• 56:38
  Speaker 3: shouldn't be super popular and the man has super strength
• 56:41
  Speaker 3: at his age.
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: I always said this about Adam Scott.
• 56:43
  Speaker 3: I don't now I've kind of like soured on him
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: a little, but I guess at this event. But in
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: these like weaker field events again, I know people, we
• 56:50
  Speaker 3: know all the names and whatnot, but like in general
• 56:52
  Speaker 3: overall weaker field, that's when he seems to pop the
• 56:55
  Speaker 3: most because it's like they forget that, Yes, he comes
• 56:57
  Speaker 3: fortieth in all these tournaments, but it's now worse, But
• 57:00
  Speaker 3: it's because he's playing against the best in the world,
• 57:03
  Speaker 3: where there's like twenty names right off the hop that
• 57:05
  Speaker 3: he can't compete with.
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: So when else are you playing Adam Scott?
• 57:09
  Speaker 4: I love Adam Scott this week, and I can't figure
• 57:12
  Speaker 4: out why he's not popular because he's a bomber off
• 57:17
  Speaker 4: the team now, I mean, he's his ball speed is
• 57:19
  Speaker 4: just incredible for his age, but it's it's great regardless,
• 57:23
  Speaker 4: Like you don't even need the qualifier for his age
• 57:26
  Speaker 4: to be really impressed with his distance now and the
• 57:29
  Speaker 4: approach play has been unbelievably good. He's gained point six
• 57:33
  Speaker 4: point eight point six, one, one point one and one
• 57:36
  Speaker 4: point eight strokes per round in every event this year
• 57:39
  Speaker 4: with his irons. How is this nut one of the
• 57:42
  Speaker 4: industry's favorite plays of the week? I don't get it,
• 57:45
  Speaker 4: but that makes him a target for me in DFS
• 57:47
  Speaker 4: And the one thing I'll say about him as well,
• 57:49
  Speaker 4: this is kind of an extension of just betting thoughts
• 57:52
  Speaker 4: if you will, If you want any hope of betting
• 57:55
  Speaker 4: him at a good number at AUGUSTA, you probably have
• 57:59
  Speaker 4: like a week and a half to do that, because
• 58:02
  Speaker 4: as soon as we get two Masters week, Especially if
• 58:04
  Speaker 4: he continues to play like this, the number is going
• 58:06
  Speaker 4: to create. Ninety to one is available right now at
• 58:09
  Speaker 4: bet MGM, and he's going to be like forty the
• 58:11
  Speaker 4: week of.
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: If he continues to play like this.
• 58:14
  Speaker 3: What about uh a blickle beat down real quick? Oh,
• 58:16
  Speaker 3: when someone says this, Scott's off the T stats are horrible,
• 58:19
  Speaker 3: what do.
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: You say to that?
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: Which Scott? Adam Scott?
• 58:24
  Speaker 4: Yeah, the guy who he was bad at the Players
• 58:27
  Speaker 4: he lost point eight, but he gained point eight five,
• 58:30
  Speaker 4: one point zero five, one point one in point nine
• 58:32
  Speaker 4: to five at the Sony Amex, Farmers Insurance and Genesis.
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: He's been really good off the T. I don't I
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: don't know what that's referencing tekel.
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: On Levin's violence. He got him in the chat. Sorry, guys,
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: had to have a little fun with it down the stretch.
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: We love Jason, We appreciate it being there.
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: I was interacting, But like again, even when you see that,
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: it's always just go with a grain of salt. But
• 58:51
  Speaker 3: it's like that's the toasty example from earlier.
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: Oh, but he played good last week?
• 58:55
  Speaker 3: Did he Did you even look in or did you
• 58:56
  Speaker 3: just see thirtieth on the sheet and say well he
• 58:58
  Speaker 3: had a good result. That's what it's DFS related to,
• 59:01
  Speaker 3: you know what I mean. People have had a good
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: result in DFS and then gave a ton of money
• 59:04
  Speaker 3: back and away and never showed up again.
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: There's some people win.
• 59:07
  Speaker 3: Million makers and give all the money back, you know,
• 59:09
  Speaker 3: because it's like they just don't it was a good result.
• 59:12
  Speaker 3: How they got there and process wised probably nothing to
• 59:15
  Speaker 3: be able to repeat it and stick around in longevity
• 59:17
  Speaker 3: and stay in the game and adapt and get better.
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: So there's there's a lot of different things.
• 59:20
  Speaker 4: So you know what, though, there's there's actually a greater
• 59:23
  Speaker 4: conversation to be had about Adam Scott. So I now
• 59:25
  Speaker 4: that I'm looking more at some of his other data,
• 59:27
  Speaker 4: like I understand at least where this thought came from.
• 59:30
  Speaker 4: So let's take a look at the Farmers and the Genesis.
• 59:32
  Speaker 4: For example, if you look at Data Golf's accuracy number,
• 59:36
  Speaker 4: he lost two percentage two percent of fairways hit to
• 59:42
  Speaker 4: the field at the Farmers and lost one percent at
• 59:45
  Speaker 4: the Genesis, but he gained one point one and point
• 59:49
  Speaker 4: nine to four strokes off the tee and he was
• 59:51
  Speaker 4: gaining fifteen and seventeen yards to the field.
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: For example, fifteen.
• 59:56
  Speaker 4: To seventeen yards is going to be right around point
• 59:59
  Speaker 4: four st ros worth of distance gained, and he gained
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 4: one point one point ninety four.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: So he gained more than half.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 4: Of his strokes in those two events with his accuracy
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 4: off the tee, despite the fact that he hit fewer
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 4: fairways than usually. What that should tell most people is
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 4: that percentage of fairways hit or fairways gained is not
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 4: a good representation of accuracy off the tea. It doesn't
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 4: tell you how quality the misses were, doesn't tell you
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 4: whether he was hitting his line very often, because a
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 4: lot of the time, like if there's big trouble left,
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 4: you're aimed down the right edge of the fairway. If
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 4: you miss your line by two yards and you're in
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 4: the rough, you just hit a super accurate drive. But
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 4: the you know, the statistic that so many people use
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 4: to measure accuracy, doesn't know where you were aimed. Strokes
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 4: gained off the team does, and consequently our strokes gained
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 4: driving accuracy does.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, these stats are way off too, like using some
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 3: old data or something like that.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: Like you know, you said he lost point at you
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: can just go on data golf. It's like free to
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: check out. You can see it all.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 3: That's what the industry gold standard is for, like sort
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 3: of looking at this stuff and minus point eight off
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 3: the T and he still made the cut and got through.
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 3: Wasn't like that's gonna do much here for you, but
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: just noting it. He still was there. And then before
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 3: that he had a point nine to four at the Genesis,
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 3: plus one point one at the Farmers, plus one at
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 3: the American Express, plus point eight five and then all
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 3: the reasons you just broke down why it doesn't matter
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 3: considering it. But when you say, like the notes is like,
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 3: you know, his off the T stats are horrible, and
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 3: then the correction is, well, last event, this that's my
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 3: whole point, like Toasti's playing really good right now. Last
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 3: event he came thirtieth. All right, we just broke it
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 3: down for it. He's been horrible, but he's but he
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 3: was good here two years ago, and he was good
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 3: here last year, So it has to happen twelve months
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: later in the exact same event this year.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: It's it's all randomized.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 3: It's all such a small variance, a small sample size
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 3: and high variants.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 4: And I will admit, like, yeah, he did not drive
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 4: the ball well with the players, but that's also one
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 4: of the absolute hardest tests in the world off the
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 4: t This is not this is not even close to that.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 4: So like, even if even if Scott wasn't accurate this week,
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 4: even if he has a poor driving week, he's still
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 4: not gonna lose a lot of strokes off the tee
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 4: because of his distance and the approach play in the
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 4: putting is good enough to still make him a good play.
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 4: So even if you're even if you are of the
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 4: mind that you know his his last week's struggle off
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 4: the tee or two weeks ago now at the players,
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 4: even if you are of the mind that that is
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 4: going to continue and he's not going to be accurate
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 4: this week, that didn't and up itself is not enough
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 4: where I think a number one that it's worth not
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 4: playing him, Nor is it enough historically to make the
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 4: field come off of him. So again, like I'm still
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 4: very confused as to why he's not a more popular play.
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: I feel like it's just because of his age.
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 3: Age, and then Price says a nine in front of it, right,
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 3: so it's like that's gonna be part of it.
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 4: Too.
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: I think people just factor that in when you already
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: have Like again, we already named it with min Wu
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: and god her Up and Nap and Nikolai and Kid
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: Kidiama and even Fowler, and people are going to like
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: a little bit hotter right now that people saying, okay,
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: looking good, coming in needs a result all that. Like,
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: I just think people are so much more likely to
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: land there.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 3: But again, we're always trying to learn from each other
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 3: and talk about it from the game.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: It's not really coming down on anyone.
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 3: I'm just saying this is the prime point that I
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 3: made earlier on the Toasty stuff, so I brought it
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 3: up again with the Scott stuff. It's like, what is
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 3: that like, If you're actually going to use data, then
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 3: use it. Don't just use like last week or the
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 3: week before and then not dig into it because you,
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 3: like you said that the players too off the tea
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 3: can be water balls off the tee. It could be
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 3: different things like that, Oh, someone lost approach at the players. Yeah,
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 3: go look they went in the water four times in
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 3: a row on seventeen Russell Knox that year whatever it
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 3: was like, you know, guess what. His approach didn't look
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 3: very good there, But yeah, it's all relative. But that's
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 3: like an excuse after the fact when the result comes
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 3: out at the end, you could say, oh, I knew
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 3: Adam Scott wasn't gonna be good because two weeks in
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 3: a row I saw as off the tea was bad.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: All right, do it every week.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 3: Then take whatever magic thought that got you there and
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 3: apply it and start winning at DFS every week. Because
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 3: it's not it's not even a plickam, it's just a thought.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 3: So we can dig into the granular all day. But
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 3: just a little thing that way. Anything around the betting
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 3: standpoint that you want to bring up I think you
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 3: brought up like Adam Scott at the Masters, could be
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 3: part of it if you want to go get that
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 3: number and now that we've talked through it so much
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 3: for anything else you want to bring up.
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: Not really, I don't have anything yet this week.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 4: I'm hoping to have some tonight where maybe I can
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 4: say that I'm expecting, you know, a stronger weather effect
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 4: than the market is, and I can find an edge
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 4: that way.
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: But at the moment, I don't actually have anything for
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: this week.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know, Like I said, what sites these
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 3: guys are using they got me all going in on it.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: We only I only get on here once a week now, Alex,
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 3: so I don't get as much you know, camera time
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 3: to go through it as what you're saying. But like again,
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 3: I just don't see how that's even possible when it's
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 3: for twenty twenty six, specifically when he was dialed for
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 3: like every event but the players and a little bit
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 3: off at the API.
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: But also you don't even need like here.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 3: You can get away with a lot off the t too,
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 3: So it's all gonna come down to more to me
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 3: of like what else he could do with that stuff.
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 3: But I'm sure if Adam Scott has a bad week,
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 3: we'll see everybody back here next week saying that's terrible
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 3: and told you so and all that and who cares.
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I just I just like to help people
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 3: learn the perspective I think about it from and then
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 3: if that can help them apply it, then great. But
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 3: all right, I got nothing else. I definitely don't have betting.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: Somebody asked for our first round leader pick earlier, I
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 3: got nothing on that. So for me, let's talk about
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 3: our lanes and I'll go. But just because you may
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 3: have the same, but you can put your spin on
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 3: and adaptive. But I definitely have noticed it and I
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 3: already liked it coming in. You and I talked a
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 3: little bit about it pre show, but I'm gonna tie.
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: It in a different way.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 3: So I definitely think at least two, if not three
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 3: eight K guys is gonna be my lane for my
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: main single. Edgary like what I'm going with this week
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 3: and what we kind of relate it back to and
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 3: m me, I'll take on some more risk and different things,
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 3: and across my portfolio, I'll cover more angles. But the
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 3: reason I want to bring it up is because it's
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 3: the guys in the eight K. I'm still fine with
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 3: winning this thing, Like I don't think the win equity
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 3: spreads that far. Like obviously I think min Wu has
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 3: the highest win equity, but what is it five percent?
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: Four percent?
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 3: Like I could look it up, but I'm saying, like
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 3: that's just what they're giving him. I think you could
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 3: spread that down the board even further. So I think
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 3: there's that fact that the winner can come from the
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 3: eight K range, So I'll try and spray more options
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 3: in there that way. If I'm going that way, yes,
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 3: I could end up on a bunch of guys that
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 3: get you know, twenty eighteen, fifteen, fifteen, twelve, ten, even
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 3: like something like that could happen. But it's like you say,
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 3: I always say, it's not who you play, it's how
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 3: you play them. In your case of it's not just
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 3: who you play, it's who you don't play. It's I
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 3: wouldn't have a very high owned Minu, I wouldn't have
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 3: a very high owned guy, and these guys could start
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 3: my lineup, so I shouldn't say that, but just noting
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't have all of them with men, I would
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 3: have multiples of min Wu, Nap got her up, kiddiam Allow,
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 3: whoever else is up there with Fowler, et cetera.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: So I'm looking at it from that perspective.
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 3: But also I think what I talked about earlier with
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 3: like Yatzie Scheffler on a Scotti week where you got
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 3: to get the stuff right down below, I think.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: Playing six K guys this week can work.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 3: Obviously you can. There's gonna be a six K guy
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 3: that comes through has a good week. There could even
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 3: be multiples, But I think people forget that saying that
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 3: and then figuring that out or having enough lineup steven
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 3: even with one fifty to figure that out. I put
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 3: fifty and dedicate them towards that. It's still only fifty
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 3: lineups in a very large field tournament, and you still
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 3: have to take some stands and figure it out this
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 3: that and the other, or spread it out some if
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 3: you want to just go spray and pray. But then
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 3: now you only have, like like last week, I had
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 3: Lifski in there for two or three percent, that's not
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 3: very many lineups, so it's like, you're what if they
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 3: had the miscut in them or whatever. They're all dead anyway,
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 3: so I think it's more challenging to figure that out.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 3: So I already like the eight K range. I think
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 3: the winner can come from the eight K range. You
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 3: can still play nine K guys with AK guys and
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 3: play multiples, so.
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: I'm fine with that.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 3: So I'm definitely gonna be looking to play at least two,
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 3: if not three eight K guys and potentially four depending
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 3: on how my lineup shakeout for what my main actually
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 3: ends up looking like.
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: So yeah, heavy on the eight K range for two
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: different reasons.
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 4: I like that my leverage lane is going to be
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 4: a bit of an answer to a question that was
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 4: asked it like the very beginning of this show, which
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 4: is what do we do when the industry is all
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 4: over one skill set? And my answer is, well, that's
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 4: not the only skill set that matters. And this course
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 4: fit model is very clear that yes, distance matters a
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 4: ton this week, and the industry is one hundred percent
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 4: correct about that. But approach play also matters a ton.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 4: Putting also matters a ton. And so one of the
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 4: ways that I'm going to look to be different this
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 4: week and try and find separators this week is guys
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 4: who are not long off the tee, but they are
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 4: great with their irons and they are great putters.
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: And I think really important point.
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 4: Here is I was actually, you know, I brought up
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 4: this idea in my discord and one of my discord
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 4: members asked if that was a really great question. He's
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 4: also a member at FTN, so we sees all the projections,
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 4: the ownership, the GPP scores, and he said, if we
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 4: already have the GPP scurse, which already tell us who's
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 4: under owned and who isn't, does it really matter why
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 4: they're undergrowned? Does it matter if they're undergrowned despite being
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 4: a bomber, or if they're underrowned because they're not a bomber.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 4: And the answer is yet, it actually does matter because
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 4: just like we understand that every player has a range
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 4: of outcomes in terms of what his performance is going
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 4: to be and what his DraftKings scoring is going to be,
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 4: every player also has a range of outcomes for what
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 4: his ownership is going to be. And so when I
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 4: say I want to find guys who are not long
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 4: off the tee, but they are great with their irons
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 4: and putting, one of the things that I'm saying there
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 4: is I know that this guy has some protection for
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 4: his steam. Right We talked earlier about the fact that
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 4: I think Burns and Brooks Kopka could both end up
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 4: a lot more popular than their current ownership projection. Another
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 4: guy like that Wyndham Clark has a very good GPP
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 4: score for US right now, but he's a bomber. There's
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 4: a very good chance that people who are looking in
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 4: that range that you just talked about, that eight K range,
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 4: saying all right, I really want to hammer this range,
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 4: but I want a bomber, and I want someone who's
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 4: not that high owned. There aren't many options Wyndham Clark
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 4: is one of the clearest options there. So if you
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 4: open the DraftKings app and you see Wyndham Clark at
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 4: twenty percent, you should be a little bit surprised, but
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 4: you shouldn't be shocked, whereas you're not going to see
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 4: that on a let's say, like a Harris English for example,
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 4: or you know, there are some value plays who really
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 4: are not bombers at all. They're great with their irons,
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 4: they're great putters. There's no chances are eating going to
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 4: be five percent owned. So that's the type of play
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 4: that I'm going to lean into this week, and it
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 4: does it. By the way, it doesn't mean that I'm
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 4: not gonna have bombers in my lineup. I absolutely will,
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 4: but I'm also going to have probably let's say like
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 4: two to three of these guys who are very clear
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 4: separators protected from an ownership perspective because they don't have
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 4: the number one skill set that people are looking for,
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 4: even though they're still very good fits for the course.
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's perfect, man.
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 3: I like that, and I think that's important for the
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 3: people to take away, is like, that's what we've talked
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 3: about a ton of these shows and the concept of
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 3: putting it all together but still knowing the tournament that
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 3: you're in, and then applying it towards that and using
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 3: things like wavestacking even when there's not a wave advantage
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 3: to your advantage, using a couple of clear separators that
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 3: fit in a range that people are talking about but
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 3: they're not being about where they're you know, they're they're
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 3: mentioning a bunch of these guys and they're all eight
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 3: to twelve percent, but nobody's clicking them. But then you've
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 3: got two five percenters in there as well that fit
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 3: the construction, but also not the quote unquote plays that
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 3: people are on. And that's stuff is way more important
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 3: to me when I'm looking at the total roster.
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: Construction or what the actual build them submit looks like versus.
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 3: Who are the plays that I'm on to get there
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 3: with it, It's like it's so little about that for
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 3: me that it really doesn't matter, Like it's all gonna
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 3: be built based off of that. And then to your
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 3: point of the like over owned underall, we get that
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 3: a lot too, because with the stone, people can see
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 3: the optimal rate when we do our simulations to say, okay.
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: This is how optimal.
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 3: This play is as a standalone, but it's how often
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 3: they're showing up, and so that's thinking of everything as
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 3: a whole within those rosters. So if you have min
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 3: Wu to be optimal thirty percent of the time and
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 3: he's twenty eight percent owned, maybe he's not that bad.
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 3: It's just you're gonna still have to think about it
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 3: though and how you're playing him.
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: But if you have somebody.
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 3: Who's fifteen percent to be optimal and they're thirty two
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 3: percent owned, well then you're probably looking at a bad
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 3: play because that's like the difference of like the when
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 3: people talk about like good shock, bad shock. Anything can
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 3: happen in a result, but that's probably bad scha. I mean,
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 3: he's optimal fifteen percent of the time, but people are
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 3: putting them in thirty something percent of the time. That's
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 3: a little bit over the top. How can I adjust
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 3: for that? And it doesn't just mean pivot to the
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 3: next guy. It could be a different construction, it could
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 3: be something that doesn't have that type of play in it,
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 3: whatever it might be. With course, fit, skill set, wave advantage,
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 3: all these different things can factor into your favors. So
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 3: I think that was a good one man breaking it
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 3: all down. If anybody has any follow up questions for
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 3: next week or any topics they want us to discuss,
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 3: make sure to leave them in the comments at the
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 3: end of the show. Once we're done, or if you're
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 3: watching it, I'll play back. You can do so already,
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 3: make sure to hit that thumbs up. Subscribe to the
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 3: channel Alex. Let the people know where they can find
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 3: you anything else you got going.
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: On for the week.
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 4: At alex Plicka one on Twitter you can find all
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 4: the f ten links and links to my discord and
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 4: baseball starts tomorrow, and so you know, it's been an
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 4: awesome season for Pick Them, And I keep kind of
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 4: saying the same thing, but I think what people maybe
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 4: don't quite understand about Pick Them is like, it's just
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 4: such an awesome alternative to cash games where you just
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 4: build a really nice bankroll from it, and I can't
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 4: wait to, you know, test our luck in the Pickham
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 4: streets there for baseball as well, So check it out.
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: If that kind of thing interests.
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: You love love MLB, I'm excited for that to be back.
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 3: The thing I like about it is like, again, I
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 3: like NBA as well, but I know you and I've
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 3: talked about this in the past, and you've talked about
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 3: in your discord and with other people as well. But like,
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 3: you know, when you get the projections dialed in and
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 3: you're down to like this two v two or this
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 3: three v three or whatever that looks like, and it's
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 3: like also then having to stick around for all these
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 3: different setups and and all the you know, the late
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 3: news and the all the different stuff when it comes
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 3: to you.
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: Know, load management and.
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 3: Tanking and all this gets a little bit much. I
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 3: love baseball. The lineups come out early. It's fun building lineups.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 3: You can make anything look like an all star lineup,
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 3: but it's a lot of fun when you're actually building.
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: And it reminds me of golf and football, which we talk.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 3: About so often of like the process can sometimes be
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 3: more fun than the outcome. We love watching it, and
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 3: when you get a sweat, there's nothing better. I can't
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 3: say that, but I'm saying building the lineups and talking
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 3: through the puzzle and figuring out well if this then that, oh,
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 3: and the field's doing this, and then you're trying to
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 3: adapt for that and playing these single entries where you
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 3: kind of okay, the Field's all in like heavy, I
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 3: should say on the Yankees tonight, and that means this
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 3: picture becomes popular. Well, I probably don't want to go
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 3: against I don't want the picture against the Yankees.
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: I think they are likely to put up six runs.
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: But if they only put up six runs and this
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: other team does this, what can my roster look like
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: that sort of competes with this.
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 3: I love baseball. I think that's important to remember our guy,
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 3: Aaron says, hope to see we'll have title gee risen Ham,
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 3: and then we'll also have our guy Bellman, who's hopping
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 3: on now with us as well and joined us in
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 3: the offseason for basketball. So we're gonna have a lot
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 3: of MLB stuff rolling out the Masters.
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: The special is on. But the big thing I want
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: to talk about quick just before I get out here.
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: You guys can find me on x at, TOTEG and Tamboman.
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna put a new article.
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 3: If I don't this week, I'll try and to do
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 3: at least like every two weeks, and something I want
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 3: to just work on behind the scenes and then put
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 3: it together in a nicer format. But just noting it,
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 3: I did want to bring this up This is a
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 3: big deal. I don't think enough people know this, but.
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: If you are wanting to use Sabersim, you can only
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: get all access at Sabersim. It's not a shot like
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: or a bad thing.
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 3: It's just note you can only get Starter or Ultimate
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 3: at Sabersim.
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: So I'm gonna start talking about this a lot more
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: so that you guys know. The reason I bring that
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: up is because if you're playing PGA DFS and you're like, well,
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: I'd like Sabersim, but I don't need all access. I
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: don't want to pay one hundred bucks a month or
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: whatever it might be.
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 3: You can get seventy nine or as little as twenty
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 3: nine if you pay annually per month to include Sabersim
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 3: on a single sport.
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: If you're looking at baseball on a single.
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 3: Sport, you can get forty nine bucks a month including
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 3: Sabersim that you can't get single sports Sabersim.
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: So it's a huge advantage. We do have the Winner
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: Circle program.
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 3: If you guys haven't checked that out, just go to
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 3: shipnation dot com click Winner Circle. The rules are all there,
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 3: the logos, but we've got a ton of people win
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 3: a ton of money and get their membership for free
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 3: because of that, along with some other prizes.
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: So hopefully this was helpful. You guys know where to
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: find me on x at.
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 3: Totek and tambo Hit me up if you have any
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 3: questions or want to get in over at ship Nation.
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 3: Alex always a pleasure man, appreciate you hopping on and
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 3: get through this with me. We had a good one
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 3: here this week and then we've got some really big
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 3: events coming up.
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: I think you guys have heard of it, The Masters
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: in just two weeks.
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 3: We'll sell to the Valero Texas Open next week back
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 3: at ten thirty am Eastern. That's gonna do it for
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 3: this one guys, for Alex and for myself totagging tambo
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 3: let ship it