Latest / Toadstool Sports / Monday BEST BETS | Need a Reset | MLB & WNBA | 7/20/26

Transcript

Monday BEST BETS | Need a Reset | MLB & WNBA | 7/20/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm. Man, a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chase. Black coffee on the felt. Man, you look
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 3: But don't you go quiet?
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: Don't you fade from the floor, your name, steal me
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: something on somebody for show?
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Put the glass down, baby, look at me?
• 0:46
  Speaker 4: Nine, hold on, hold on nothing nice now, hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 4: hold on.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Me, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on and stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 5: Now, what's not everybody? It's towed back with you with
• 1:30
  Speaker 5: Toadstool Sports for Monday, July twentieth. We're not doing well
• 1:35
  Speaker 5: on the show here, man, I'm gonna try to I'm
• 1:37
  Speaker 5: doing something different with my mic settings here and hopefully
• 1:41
  Speaker 5: all right, you guys can let me know, like if
• 1:43
  Speaker 5: the volume level is good and whatever, I'm gonna have
• 1:45
  Speaker 5: to go back and listen to it and adjust accordingly.
• 1:48
  Speaker 5: You know, we're still running sixty percent here over the
• 1:51
  Speaker 5: last one hundred and six days, so that's good. Obviously,
• 1:55
  Speaker 5: it's it's better than than you could hope for it really,
• 1:58
  Speaker 5: but we're really on a down swing right now. As
• 2:01
  Speaker 5: I keep saying, Man, it happens, and it usually happens
• 2:04
  Speaker 5: during this point in the baseball season.
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: I don't know why, but that is the case.
• 2:10
  Speaker 5: We should have had to win yesterday on the under,
• 2:12
  Speaker 5: like it looked like we were gonna go three and
• 2:13
  Speaker 5: one at one point yesterday the under in the Dodgers
• 2:16
  Speaker 5: the Yankees game, there's no way that shouldn't have hit.
• 2:19
  Speaker 5: The Yankees bullpen on rest, like they're one of the
• 2:24
  Speaker 5: best bullpens in baseball, and they had rest, and they
• 2:26
  Speaker 5: inexplicably just totally imploded in the eighth inning.
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: I don't know what to tell you about that.
• 2:31
  Speaker 5: It was like a four to one game in the
• 2:33
  Speaker 5: eighth inning, and then the Yankees give up. They give
• 2:36
  Speaker 5: up four runs in the eighth inning.
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: I don't know what else to tell you about that.
• 2:40
  Speaker 5: I think if you went first five on the game,
• 2:42
  Speaker 5: it would have been a push. Probably you probably could
• 2:44
  Speaker 5: have gotten the four on that. And then of course
• 2:48
  Speaker 5: the night game with I don't even know who the
• 2:50
  Speaker 5: hell pitched in the night game, that game went under.
• 2:53
  Speaker 5: Even though it was not either of the pitchers who
• 2:55
  Speaker 5: I thought were gonna pitch. Shean and Weathers, they're both
• 2:58
  Speaker 5: pitching today, so they they did not pitch in the
• 3:00
  Speaker 5: night game. I have no idea who did. And that game,
• 3:03
  Speaker 5: of course went under so absolutely ridiculous.
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: That should have been a winner.
• 3:08
  Speaker 5: We did win with the Mets early on, so that
• 3:10
  Speaker 5: was the one win that we had on the show yesterday.
• 3:13
  Speaker 5: Pretty easy win with the Mets, a good game from them.
• 3:16
  Speaker 5: Tampa Bay and the Red Sox under did not happen,
• 3:19
  Speaker 5: at least the Red Sox won as a fan, but
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: the Red Sox they just they got to McClanahan and
• 3:26
  Speaker 5: like the third inning or fourth inning or whatever, the
• 3:28
  Speaker 5: Red Sox put up a bunch of runs in that
• 3:30
  Speaker 5: one inning and it was just completely over at that point.
• 3:34
  Speaker 5: Texas couldn't get it done either.
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 3:36
  Speaker 5: Eavaldi just he was just sporadically giving up runs. And
• 3:40
  Speaker 5: then Texas got back into it, and it was a
• 3:42
  Speaker 5: time I think it was a tied game at one
• 3:44
  Speaker 5: point in like the fourth inning, after they were down
• 3:47
  Speaker 5: three to nothing, so I thought they might actually do it.
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: They did not.
• 3:51
  Speaker 5: They were losing four to three at the end of
• 3:53
  Speaker 5: the fifth inning and they lost the full game worse
• 3:55
  Speaker 5: than that. But I don't know what to telling you, man,
• 3:58
  Speaker 5: I mean the hits were pretty similar on both.
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: Sides, so it was close. Texas could have won it.
• 4:05
  Speaker 5: I guess maybe laying that price was not really justified,
• 4:09
  Speaker 5: and you know whatever, And then the World Cup.
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: I didn't have any play on the World Cup.
• 4:13
  Speaker 5: I was right about the under of course in the
• 4:16
  Speaker 5: World Cup, but Spain, they should have won way more easily, dude.
• 4:20
  Speaker 5: I think the refs were helping Argentina and that one
• 4:23
  Speaker 5: like Argentina throughout the entirety of the first ninety minutes
• 4:27
  Speaker 5: of like regular time, whenever Argentina had zero shots on
• 4:32
  Speaker 5: goal and zero expected goals, like Spain should have won
• 4:36
  Speaker 5: that game in regulation. Spain put a bunch of shots
• 4:38
  Speaker 5: on goal and a few of them were kind of
• 4:40
  Speaker 5: weak and they were like right at the goalie, but
• 4:42
  Speaker 5: they still had a few really legitimate chances and did
• 4:45
  Speaker 5: not have a goal at that point expected goals. I'm
• 4:48
  Speaker 5: pretty sure Spain won that game basically two to nothing
• 4:52
  Speaker 5: and it had to go to extra time, and I
• 4:54
  Speaker 5: was thinking it was gonna go to penalty kicks. And
• 4:57
  Speaker 5: if you watch the game, Argentina was playing cheap, dude,
• 5:00
  Speaker 5: like they had some really cheap hits. Some of them
• 5:02
  Speaker 5: were called some were not, and they find that they
• 5:05
  Speaker 5: eventually did get red carded in stoppage time, like right
• 5:09
  Speaker 5: before the first ninety minutes plus stoppage time ended, they
• 5:13
  Speaker 5: did get a red card because I forget which player
• 5:16
  Speaker 5: it was, but he got his second yellow card. It
• 5:18
  Speaker 5: was the correct call. People are complaining about it. I
• 5:21
  Speaker 5: don't think it was the wrong call. He got away
• 5:23
  Speaker 5: with some shit during that game too, so.
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: He deserved it. And then Argentina was.
• 5:28
  Speaker 5: Down a man at that point, and I'm thinking Spain
• 5:32
  Speaker 5: is still not going to score here, even though obviously
• 5:35
  Speaker 5: Spain had been dominating the game, like they had all
• 5:37
  Speaker 5: the possession in the game, they had all the chances
• 5:39
  Speaker 5: in the game, and I'm thinking this is ridiculous. They're
• 5:42
  Speaker 5: up a man and they're still not going to score,
• 5:44
  Speaker 5: and it's going to go to penalty kicks just to
• 5:46
  Speaker 5: save Argentina again.
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: But that wound up not happening. And Spain, by the way,
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: had two disallowed goals too.
• 5:52
  Speaker 5: They had one when it was still zero zero, they
• 5:55
  Speaker 5: had one, which that one I didn't really think was
• 5:58
  Speaker 5: the right call, saying it was a foul on Spain.
• 6:03
  Speaker 5: I mean, I don't know, maybe I don't know the rules,
• 6:05
  Speaker 5: but didn't really look like much to me, so that
• 6:08
  Speaker 5: one got disallowed. Then they did score the actual goal
• 6:11
  Speaker 5: after that, and then they had another goal that got
• 6:13
  Speaker 5: taken back, but that was for an off sides which
• 6:17
  Speaker 5: by rule, that was the correct call.
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: The off side stuff is just stupid.
• 6:20
  Speaker 5: But whatever Spain deserved to win, they did and that
• 6:26
  Speaker 5: was it. Man, they were the better team in the game.
• 6:28
  Speaker 5: They should have won more easily. I think that's all
• 6:30
  Speaker 5: I have to say about that. We'll get into today's
• 6:35
  Speaker 5: games here, an old Mike. That's not good. Hold on, Trey,
• 6:41
  Speaker 5: thank you for letting me know what's up, man, Atlanta.
• 6:44
  Speaker 5: I didn't really watch any of the Braves game. Hang on,
• 6:50
  Speaker 5: what about now? I don't know, because I'm trying to
• 6:53
  Speaker 5: I'm trying to find like a happy medium here where
• 6:55
  Speaker 5: I can lower the volume of my actual voice. I
• 6:59
  Speaker 5: want to be able to hear myself in my headphones
• 7:01
  Speaker 5: in order to do that, and I don't want to
• 7:03
  Speaker 5: be too loud as far as the actual like mic levels,
• 7:08
  Speaker 5: you know what I mean.
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: So I don't know.
• 7:13
  Speaker 5: Hopefully this is a little bit better. I guess we'll
• 7:16
  Speaker 5: find out it is. Oh, thank you sweet? All right,
• 7:19
  Speaker 5: Maybe maybe I've found the sweet spot here.
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: I don't know, but I'm trying to allow myself to
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: not be that loud. Oh thank you.
• 7:28
  Speaker 5: Yeah, so, I guess I just needed to turn it
• 7:29
  Speaker 5: down a little bit. I'm messing with the volume on
• 7:31
  Speaker 5: my scarlet. You think I would have figured this out
• 7:33
  Speaker 5: by now, because I've had the same equipment for a while.
• 7:35
  Speaker 5: But I was messing with the scarlet and then I'm
• 7:37
  Speaker 5: also messing with the volume setting on my computer. Okay, cool,
• 7:43
  Speaker 5: I guess let's get into today. I'm gonna have two
• 7:46
  Speaker 5: baseball plays today and I do not have any I'm
• 7:51
  Speaker 5: not gonna do anything with the WNBA today. I was
• 7:53
  Speaker 5: considering it, but I'm trying to be really selective here.
• 7:57
  Speaker 5: So we will have a couple of baseball plays here,
• 7:59
  Speaker 5: and I'm gonna have a player right away in this
• 8:00
  Speaker 5: first game Minnesota and Cleveland, which is the earliest of
• 8:04
  Speaker 5: the games in the evening here.
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: This game, I'm.
• 8:13
  Speaker 5: Gonna go first five under four, which you can find
• 8:16
  Speaker 5: out there somewhere around minus one eighteen that was at
• 8:19
  Speaker 5: the Lion book that starts with an M. There are
• 8:23
  Speaker 5: a couple other books that have a similar price to
• 8:25
  Speaker 5: this out there. I'm gonna go first five here because
• 8:28
  Speaker 5: I just can't deal with Minnesota's bullpen. But I like
• 8:30
  Speaker 5: this as an underplay here. I mean, you got Cleveland.
• 8:33
  Speaker 5: Cleveland's offense absolutely stinks, and they play a lot of
• 8:37
  Speaker 5: low scoring games at home.
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: That's where this kind of begins.
• 8:40
  Speaker 5: But obviously this also has a lot to do with
• 8:42
  Speaker 5: the starting pitching here, and we're going to exclude Minnesota's bullpen.
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: They stink.
• 8:48
  Speaker 5: As far as the setup for this, Cleveland is coming
• 8:51
  Speaker 5: off a series against Pittsburgh over the weekend. They lost
• 8:54
  Speaker 5: the series. They're staying at home. Minnesota is traveling in
• 8:59
  Speaker 5: from Chicago, so not really much of a trip there.
• 9:02
  Speaker 5: They just lost to the Cubs in that series. But
• 9:05
  Speaker 5: I'm not focusing on the side here. I'm focusing on
• 9:07
  Speaker 5: the total in this one on. Minnesota used three relief pitchers,
• 9:11
  Speaker 5: but either way, I do not like their bullpen at all.
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: Cleveland's bullpen I'm fine with.
• 9:16
  Speaker 5: They used three guys yesterday as well, but I just
• 9:18
  Speaker 5: think we can't back Minnesota's bullpen here. Cleveland is fourteenth
• 9:22
  Speaker 5: in bullpen ranked by Whip Minnesota. Though they're awful, they're
• 9:26
  Speaker 5: twenty ninth, really really bad. Cleveland is dead last offensively now,
• 9:31
  Speaker 5: by the way, so they have fallen all the way
• 9:33
  Speaker 5: down to last. I believe Jose Ramirez is still out,
• 9:37
  Speaker 5: but this is an offense that is not doing much.
• 9:39
  Speaker 5: Minnesota has been good, they're at eighth offensively, but I
• 9:43
  Speaker 5: think they can get limited by the pitching that they're
• 9:46
  Speaker 5: facing here. Joe Ryan has pitching four Minnesota, so I
• 9:50
  Speaker 5: am going to back him with this play. Ryan's good.
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: We all know this.
• 9:54
  Speaker 5: Two point a five ERA, one point zero five whip.
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: He's been even better on the road. Two point four
• 10:00
  Speaker 5: seven Roady a righty with an opponent batting average below
• 10:03
  Speaker 5: two hundred. He did pitch in the All Star Game,
• 10:06
  Speaker 5: but I'm not too concerned by that. This guy's a
• 10:08
  Speaker 5: veteran dude. I mean, I'm almost positive he's been named
• 10:12
  Speaker 5: to the All Star Team multiple times and probably pitched
• 10:15
  Speaker 5: in it multiple times.
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: So I'm not worried about that.
• 10:17
  Speaker 5: Like I talk about first timers in the All Star Game,
• 10:20
  Speaker 5: sometimes it will like throw them off, But with Joe Ryan,
• 10:23
  Speaker 5: I don't really think so. I don't think that's gonna
• 10:26
  Speaker 5: impact him. He was pitching well going into the All
• 10:28
  Speaker 5: Star break. He's got a low hit rate, low walk rate,
• 10:31
  Speaker 5: high strikeout rate, just good numbers across the board, and
• 10:36
  Speaker 5: don't worry because these are the numbers against the Cubs,
• 10:38
  Speaker 5: so probably good for him. He doesn't have to face
• 10:40
  Speaker 5: the Cubs. He's gonna be facing Cleveland instead, who or
• 10:43
  Speaker 5: way worse offensively, and they have not done much against
• 10:46
  Speaker 5: Ryan in ninety two at bats. We have a huge
• 10:49
  Speaker 5: sample size hit they only have a one to eighty
• 10:51
  Speaker 5: five average against him in five seventeen ops. Nineteen to
• 10:55
  Speaker 5: six strikeout walk ratio. Pretty rare that you see a
• 10:59
  Speaker 5: sample size it's that big and the opponent batting average
• 11:02
  Speaker 5: is still that low. So Joe Ryan definitely has dominated
• 11:06
  Speaker 5: them over a large sample that we really can I
• 11:09
  Speaker 5: think we could really use that to predict what's gonna
• 11:11
  Speaker 5: happen here. I believe he did pitch against Cleveland once
• 11:15
  Speaker 5: earlier this year, and in fact, I think it was
• 11:16
  Speaker 5: a game where he actually pitched against Biby, probably somewhere
• 11:20
  Speaker 5: back in June, I think, and that was like a
• 11:22
  Speaker 5: two to one extra inning game where I think I
• 11:25
  Speaker 5: might have given out a play on that game. I
• 11:26
  Speaker 5: don't remember if I did or not. Maybe I didn't.
• 11:30
  Speaker 5: It probably would have been an under but that game
• 11:31
  Speaker 5: went way under, so maybe this game will wind up
• 11:35
  Speaker 5: having a similar result. Here, Biby is pitching for Cleveland. Here,
• 11:40
  Speaker 5: I think he's kind of going under the radar. Dude,
• 11:42
  Speaker 5: I think Biby's fairly good. He's got pretty good numbers
• 11:44
  Speaker 5: here three point niney array, one point one five whip.
• 11:47
  Speaker 5: He's a little bit worse at home though, four point
• 11:50
  Speaker 5: one point one homye i Ray. He's been pretty good
• 11:54
  Speaker 5: over the past month plus. He did have one bat
• 11:57
  Speaker 5: outing against the White Sox in here, and then he
• 12:00
  Speaker 5: did walk four guys last time out against Miami, which
• 12:03
  Speaker 5: is somewhat concerning, but generally he's been pretty good here.
• 12:07
  Speaker 5: He's got a low hit rate, his walk rate isn't
• 12:08
  Speaker 5: really too bad. His strike out rate is low though,
• 12:11
  Speaker 5: so he's not really fooling hitters by blowing them away.
• 12:14
  Speaker 5: But he's generally been pretty good. And Minnesota, even though
• 12:17
  Speaker 5: they've seen a bunch of them, they have not really
• 12:19
  Speaker 5: had much success against them. So we have another big
• 12:22
  Speaker 5: sample size year seventy two at bats. They have a
• 12:24
  Speaker 5: one ninety four average of five to one ops against him,
• 12:27
  Speaker 5: nineteen to four strikeout walk ratio. So I think both
• 12:31
  Speaker 5: starting pitchers should do well here and we will play
• 12:33
  Speaker 5: the first five under in this one. Money seems like
• 12:36
  Speaker 5: it is agreeing with me as well. Fifty eight percent
• 12:39
  Speaker 5: of tickets are on the over, sixty six percent of
• 12:41
  Speaker 5: the cash on the under. The full game total seven
• 12:43
  Speaker 5: and a half, So the oddsmakers are also seemingly telling
• 12:47
  Speaker 5: you that they think it's going to be a low
• 12:48
  Speaker 5: scoring game here. Money is also backing Minnesota for what
• 12:52
  Speaker 5: that's worth at about minus one twenty sixty six percent
• 12:55
  Speaker 5: of tickets eighty eight percent of the cash on them.
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: It makes some sense. I mean, Ryan, he's a.
• 13:01
  Speaker 5: Very backable pitcher, but you pretty much know you're gonna
• 13:04
  Speaker 5: have to pay a price for him, though, so the
• 13:06
  Speaker 5: fact that you're having to pay a road favorite price
• 13:08
  Speaker 5: on him not the way that I would want to
• 13:10
  Speaker 5: approach this game personally. And if you play Minnesota, I
• 13:13
  Speaker 5: would not play them full game. Their bullpen is just really,
• 13:17
  Speaker 5: really bad. Although that means that if you're gonna play
• 13:19
  Speaker 5: Minnesota first five, you're gonna have to pay more of
• 13:21
  Speaker 5: a price for it. It's gonna be a heftier price
• 13:24
  Speaker 5: on that. So I'm not doing anything with the side there.
• 13:27
  Speaker 5: We're gonna take the first five under four in that one,
• 13:31
  Speaker 5: all right, Jay ram Jose Ramirez. Yeah, I don't know
• 13:37
  Speaker 5: when he's coming back. He broke his arm. I'm pretty
• 13:39
  Speaker 5: sure Ryan, he is pretty consistent, yes, but yeah, I mean,
• 13:45
  Speaker 5: he's just a guy. I'm not really gonna worry about
• 13:47
  Speaker 5: as far as being in the All Star Game because
• 13:49
  Speaker 5: he's a veteran. So next game will be on ESPN,
• 13:52
  Speaker 5: which is the Dodgers at Philadelphia. The Dodgers are probably
• 13:56
  Speaker 5: at a disadvantage here man, not just because they're facing
• 13:58
  Speaker 5: any elite pitcher on the side of Philadelphia, but the
• 14:01
  Speaker 5: Dodgers they played two games yesterday. They had a weekend
• 14:04
  Speaker 5: series against the against the Yankees, they had a double
• 14:07
  Speaker 5: header in New York.
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: Including the night game last night.
• 14:10
  Speaker 5: And you know, I talk about you want to fade
• 14:13
  Speaker 5: teams off of the Sunday night game more often than
• 14:15
  Speaker 5: not because it's a quick turnaround time. If you played
• 14:17
  Speaker 5: the Sunday night game, a lot of times it's against
• 14:20
  Speaker 5: a big opponent too, and then you have to quickly
• 14:21
  Speaker 5: turn around and play another game.
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: I think that's not a good spot for LA.
• 14:25
  Speaker 5: Plus, they played two games yesterday, so they're gonna be
• 14:28
  Speaker 5: at a pretty big rest disadvantage here that doesn't look
• 14:31
  Speaker 5: good to me. It is at least a short travel
• 14:34
  Speaker 5: spot from New York to Philadelphia, and at least I guess.
• 14:37
  Speaker 5: The one other good thing is that Philadelphia is not
• 14:39
  Speaker 5: a team they're really going to overlook necessarily, but it's
• 14:42
  Speaker 5: still definitely there are a lot of negatives in here
• 14:44
  Speaker 5: for the setup for the Dodgers here. I'm not gonna
• 14:47
  Speaker 5: give a give out a play on this game, but situationally, yeah,
• 14:51
  Speaker 5: it looks pretty.
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: Bad for the Dodgers.
• 14:54
  Speaker 5: The Dodgers lost the night game, by the way, and
• 14:56
  Speaker 5: they also used pretty much everybody out of their bullpen
• 14:59
  Speaker 5: and the double header. Yes, today they use seven relief arms,
• 15:02
  Speaker 5: so they're gonna be at a rest disadvantage here big time.
• 15:05
  Speaker 5: Philadelphia doesn't have a very good bullpen, but they only
• 15:07
  Speaker 5: use four guys, so that might bounce that out a
• 15:09
  Speaker 5: little bit. Philadelphia is twentieth in bullpen though, which is
• 15:14
  Speaker 5: not great. Dodgers are seventh, but again, the spread is
• 15:19
  Speaker 5: gonna be a little bit less than that because of
• 15:21
  Speaker 5: the rest here. Dodgers are number one. Offensively, Philadelphia has
• 15:25
  Speaker 5: not been great at twenty fourth. They do hit better
• 15:28
  Speaker 5: at home, though, Dodgers will be going with Emmett Sheen,
• 15:31
  Speaker 5: who was supposed to pitch two days ago and then
• 15:34
  Speaker 5: I really thought he was gonna pitch in one of
• 15:35
  Speaker 5: the games yesterday and did not, So I don't know
• 15:38
  Speaker 5: what the deal is there. He'll be pitching tonight. Shean
• 15:42
  Speaker 5: is a guy who I think is a little bit
• 15:43
  Speaker 5: better than his numbers. Look, he's got a four point
• 15:46
  Speaker 5: eight one ERA one point twenty four whip.
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: The whip isn't too bad there.
• 15:50
  Speaker 5: He isn't really that good on the road though, five
• 15:52
  Speaker 5: point h five road ERA. But if you look at
• 15:55
  Speaker 5: like his opponent batting average is pretty low though, so
• 15:58
  Speaker 5: I think he is better than his era. It makes
• 16:00
  Speaker 5: him look He was decent in his last start against Arizona,
• 16:04
  Speaker 5: but the Dodgers have been losing a lot of his
• 16:05
  Speaker 5: recent outings, so it's a combination of him not really
• 16:10
  Speaker 5: pitching that well. Plus he's not getting a ton of
• 16:13
  Speaker 5: run support in some of these games. I think the
• 16:15
  Speaker 5: bullpen has kind of failed them a couple of times too.
• 16:18
  Speaker 5: Just basically they're losing games every way that you can
• 16:21
  Speaker 5: imagine with him on the mound. But he does have
• 16:23
  Speaker 5: a pretty low hit rate here. His walk rate isn't
• 16:26
  Speaker 5: too bad, and his strikeout rate is pretty high, so
• 16:28
  Speaker 5: he does have talent, which is something I've been saying
• 16:31
  Speaker 5: for a while just watching what he's done in Major
• 16:34
  Speaker 5: League Baseball so far. He definitely has the ability to
• 16:36
  Speaker 5: strike guys out at this level. Against Philadelphia, he's been
• 16:41
  Speaker 5: pretty good, although it's a small sample size nineteen at bats.
• 16:44
  Speaker 5: They have six guys who have faced them one oh
• 16:46
  Speaker 5: five batting average allowed, two ninety six ohps six to
• 16:50
  Speaker 5: two strikeout walk ratio, So Sheian has done pretty well
• 16:54
  Speaker 5: against Philly in that small sample size. But he is
• 16:58
  Speaker 5: going to have to match up against Christopher Sandez, who
• 17:00
  Speaker 5: is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Two point
• 17:03
  Speaker 5: six y two ERA, one point one to nine whip.
• 17:06
  Speaker 5: He's been elite at home, point eight six RA at home.
• 17:10
  Speaker 5: He's been pretty much untouchable at home, so you don't
• 17:13
  Speaker 5: really want to fade him at home now. He did
• 17:15
  Speaker 5: pitch in the All Star Game and he actually wasn't good.
• 17:17
  Speaker 5: He was the starter for the NL in the All
• 17:19
  Speaker 5: Star Game and he gave up three runs in the
• 17:21
  Speaker 5: first ending, which is not good. But it's the All
• 17:25
  Speaker 5: Star Game, you know, It's not a game that really
• 17:27
  Speaker 5: has much meaning. I don't think there's that much to
• 17:30
  Speaker 5: take away from that. He did struggle though in a
• 17:33
  Speaker 5: couple of his recent starts too, though, so maybe there's
• 17:37
  Speaker 5: a little bit of cause for concern here. He pitched
• 17:39
  Speaker 5: pretty well against Detroit though in his most recent actual start,
• 17:42
  Speaker 5: even though he was a little bit hittable in that one.
• 17:45
  Speaker 5: But overall, you know that his numbers are pretty good.
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: Overall, he's got a high strikeout rate, low walk rate,
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: but hit ability. You know, his hit rate is not
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: really that low.
• 17:54
  Speaker 5: So the way that offenses have gotten to him when
• 17:57
  Speaker 5: they have is by getting hits off. Now, I don't
• 18:01
  Speaker 5: think he's gonna be thrown off by being an All Star,
• 18:03
  Speaker 5: even though I think I don't think that was his
• 18:07
  Speaker 5: first I'd have to look it up, but I think
• 18:08
  Speaker 5: he's been named an All Star before, so I think
• 18:10
  Speaker 5: that that might have been his second time being named
• 18:15
  Speaker 5: as an All Star. So I don't think that's gonna
• 18:16
  Speaker 5: throw him off as much. His numbers against the Dodgers.
• 18:20
  Speaker 5: I mean, it's not an easy task to go up
• 18:21
  Speaker 5: against the Dodgers. He's been pretty good against them, though,
• 18:24
  Speaker 5: in one hundred nineteen at bats to forty four average
• 18:27
  Speaker 5: six fifty eight ohps allowed. So I mean, this is
• 18:31
  Speaker 5: a game I'm definitely gonna leave on the shelf. I
• 18:33
  Speaker 5: don't really know what I want to do with it.
• 18:36
  Speaker 5: Like it seems like based on the situation, we should
• 18:39
  Speaker 5: be leaning towards Philadelphia a little bit here, but the
• 18:41
  Speaker 5: money's disagreeing with it. I think probably you're paying a
• 18:44
  Speaker 5: little bit too much of a price for Sanchez just
• 18:46
  Speaker 5: because that, you know, just because of his name. Minus
• 18:50
  Speaker 5: one thirty something is the price here on the money line,
• 18:53
  Speaker 5: fifty eight percent of the tickets are on Sanchez or
• 18:55
  Speaker 5: on Philly. I should say fifty four percent of the
• 18:57
  Speaker 5: cash on the Dodgers, So there is a slight market
• 19:00
  Speaker 5: read towards the Dodgers here. I wouldn't want to play
• 19:03
  Speaker 5: the Dodgers either, because the situation is pretty bad for them,
• 19:06
  Speaker 5: And in fact, I probably do slightly lean towards Philly
• 19:10
  Speaker 5: in this game just based on the situation.
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: I would not want to play the Dodgers.
• 19:15
  Speaker 5: I think at least you're getting a you're probably getting
• 19:18
  Speaker 5: the starting pitching edge in that game too. The bullpen's
• 19:21
  Speaker 5: not so much, but you might not have to exclude
• 19:24
  Speaker 5: the Dodgers' bullpen if you.
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: Do want to play or exclude Philly's bullpen.
• 19:27
  Speaker 5: I mean, if you do want to play Philly here,
• 19:30
  Speaker 5: just because the rest advantage might be pretty extreme here,
• 19:33
  Speaker 5: the over is getting some traction to it over eight
• 19:36
  Speaker 5: and a half.
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: I just I don't really have a good feel for it.
• 19:39
  Speaker 5: I mean, it seems like it could be an under
• 19:41
  Speaker 5: early on, like a first five under, because both starting
• 19:44
  Speaker 5: pitchers look like they might match up. Okay, so I
• 19:46
  Speaker 5: could see this being a first five under. Maybe a
• 19:49
  Speaker 5: full game over makes some sense. But I if I
• 19:53
  Speaker 5: have a different feeling between first five and full game
• 19:56
  Speaker 5: like to that degree, I usually I'm not really gonna
• 19:59
  Speaker 5: want to do anything with the game. So I still
• 20:01
  Speaker 5: think maybe the best way to play that game is
• 20:02
  Speaker 5: really to just play Philadelphia. But not gonna make the
• 20:06
  Speaker 5: cut for me, This next game will and that's gonna
• 20:09
  Speaker 5: be the end of the show man. That'll be my
• 20:11
  Speaker 5: last play of the day. And you already know what
• 20:18
  Speaker 5: this is gonna be, probably because this is a similar
• 20:20
  Speaker 5: handicap to the other one, but this is better because
• 20:23
  Speaker 5: in this case we get the better starting pitcher behind us.
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: We're gonna take the Pittsburgh Pirates on the money line.
• 20:29
  Speaker 5: In the full game at plus money at plus one
• 20:31
  Speaker 5: oh five against the Yankees, I like this one. If
• 20:36
  Speaker 5: you want to go first five innings on this, I
• 20:38
  Speaker 5: wouldn't disagree with that either. I considered it, but I
• 20:40
  Speaker 5: think that going full game you're gonna get a little
• 20:43
  Speaker 5: bit of a better price. If you go first five,
• 20:44
  Speaker 5: you have to lay about minus one ten, which I mean,
• 20:47
  Speaker 5: obviously that's not bad. You could do it that way
• 20:49
  Speaker 5: if you want to, but just my thought process was,
• 20:52
  Speaker 5: if you do that, you're not really taking full advantage
• 20:55
  Speaker 5: of the rest disadvantage that the Yankees are at here,
• 20:57
  Speaker 5: like the fact that their.
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: Bullpen is just totally run out right now.
• 21:01
  Speaker 5: So I don't like Pittsburgh's bullpen, but I'm gonna go
• 21:05
  Speaker 5: full game because of the rest scenario here and we're
• 21:07
  Speaker 5: getting plus money on it, which I do like.
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: Now, the Yankees have been a good bullpen. They're number
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: three right now.
• 21:12
  Speaker 5: They're tied in second for ERA right now with the
• 21:16
  Speaker 5: Braves behind the Red Sox, who have the best bullpen
• 21:19
  Speaker 5: e RA right now. Pittsburgh is twenty fourth, and I
• 21:22
  Speaker 5: know that's not good, but they're a mid forest bullpen
• 21:25
  Speaker 5: in RA, which isn't really that bad. And again this
• 21:28
  Speaker 5: is really about the rest here. Pittsburgh is pretty rested
• 21:32
  Speaker 5: out of the bullpen. These two guys out of the bullpen. Yesterday,
• 21:35
  Speaker 5: the Yankees used literally everybody because they played a doubleheader
• 21:39
  Speaker 5: against the Dodgers. So this is a bad spot for
• 21:42
  Speaker 5: the Yankees to plus literally all of their relief arms
• 21:45
  Speaker 5: pitched yesterday, including their closer pitching in the night game
• 21:48
  Speaker 5: to finish that one off with the win with Bednar there. Offensively,
• 21:53
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh is actually ranked higher than the Yankees number two
• 21:56
  Speaker 5: Yankees number six, although I'm not really ready to say
• 21:59
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh is actually better offense, but obviously they can compete here.
• 22:04
  Speaker 5: Yankees are better at home though Pittsburgh not as good
• 22:06
  Speaker 5: on the road. But still we're looking at a situation
• 22:11
  Speaker 5: here where we have a worn out bullpen for the Yankees.
• 22:13
  Speaker 5: The Yankees had to play two games yesterday. They were
• 22:16
  Speaker 5: playing a huge weekend series against the Dodgers, so they
• 22:19
  Speaker 5: could be in a letdown spot potentially after that. And
• 22:21
  Speaker 5: they won the night game last night. After the Yankees
• 22:24
  Speaker 5: lost the game that we lost on on the show
• 22:26
  Speaker 5: with the under the Yankees bullpen was bad in that one.
• 22:30
  Speaker 5: They lost the afternoon game, and the Yankees were on
• 22:32
  Speaker 5: the verge of getting swept potentially by the Dodgers. But
• 22:35
  Speaker 5: the Yankees won dramatically in the night game. They won
• 22:38
  Speaker 5: an a Jazz Chisholm home run. I think that won
• 22:41
  Speaker 5: the game two to one for them last night in
• 22:44
  Speaker 5: the eighth innings. That was a dramatic finish for the Yankees.
• 22:46
  Speaker 5: They had to play the night game. They had to
• 22:48
  Speaker 5: play two games yesterday, so they're gonna be a huge
• 22:50
  Speaker 5: rest disadvantage, quick turnaround time, and yes, I know Pittsburgh
• 22:54
  Speaker 5: is having to travel here, but whatever, I mean, they're
• 22:58
  Speaker 5: coming in from Cleveland.
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: I don't really think that's that big of a deal.
• 23:01
  Speaker 5: And they only played one game yesterday, so that should
• 23:04
  Speaker 5: be an advantage to them. And the other advantage they
• 23:06
  Speaker 5: have is so they got Braxx and Ashcraft on the mound. Dude,
• 23:09
  Speaker 5: I thought he was going to pitch over the weekend.
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: He didn't.
• 23:11
  Speaker 5: But let's take advantage of the fact that he's pitching
• 23:14
  Speaker 5: in this game, because he's been solid three point four
• 23:16
  Speaker 5: to nine e RA one point one one whip good
• 23:19
  Speaker 5: stuff there. He's been even better on the road three
• 23:22
  Speaker 5: point two nine. Roady Ray wasn't great in his last
• 23:25
  Speaker 5: outing against Milwaukee. You know, I mean, I might give
• 23:29
  Speaker 5: him a pass for that, at two of his last
• 23:31
  Speaker 5: three outings are actually bad. He's actually allowed some home
• 23:33
  Speaker 5: runs recently, which I know isn't really that good.
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: And you know, I know.
• 23:37
  Speaker 5: Yankees Yankee Stadium is a bit home run conducive. But
• 23:40
  Speaker 5: I'm still expecting Ashcraft to start pitching better again. I mean,
• 23:44
  Speaker 5: he's been really good throughout the season. Low hit rate,
• 23:47
  Speaker 5: low walk rate, high strikeout rate, just good numbers across
• 23:50
  Speaker 5: the board. And I think he gets he's on heralded
• 23:53
  Speaker 5: man because he's on a pitching staff with Paul Skins
• 23:56
  Speaker 5: and whatever. Nobody talks about Ashcraft, but he's like clearly
• 23:59
  Speaker 5: their second best starting pitcher here, and he's going to
• 24:02
  Speaker 5: be going up against a Yankee team that has never
• 24:04
  Speaker 5: faced him before, so that's an extra advantage to him.
• 24:07
  Speaker 5: What I always say with these young pitchers that have
• 24:09
  Speaker 5: a lot of talent, I think if they haven't faced
• 24:11
  Speaker 5: an offense before, they have an extra advantage because that
• 24:14
  Speaker 5: offense has to try to figure them out on the fly.
• 24:16
  Speaker 5: So I think that's good as well. And he'll be
• 24:18
  Speaker 5: going up against Ryan Weathers, who I thought was gonna
• 24:21
  Speaker 5: pitch yesterday but didn't Weathers. I mean, he's not a
• 24:24
  Speaker 5: bad pitcher, but I don't think he's as good as Ashcraft.
• 24:27
  Speaker 5: He's got a four point one five ERA, one point
• 24:29
  Speaker 5: two to four WHIP mediocre numbers from him here four
• 24:33
  Speaker 5: point one homy Ira, so he's slightly better at home
• 24:36
  Speaker 5: with the ARRA, but his opponent of batting average at
• 24:38
  Speaker 5: home is actually worse in a larger sample size, so
• 24:42
  Speaker 5: you could make the argument he's actually not.
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: As good at home.
• 24:45
  Speaker 5: Pitched pretty well last time out against Washington, which is
• 24:48
  Speaker 5: maybe a decent sign, but he was really struggling prior
• 24:51
  Speaker 5: to that.
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: He had a couple of really bad outings prior to that, so.
• 24:54
  Speaker 5: I don't think he's exactly in the most great of
• 24:58
  Speaker 5: form here right now. His overall numbers are still pretty good,
• 25:01
  Speaker 5: pretty low hit rate of pretty low walk rates, strike
• 25:04
  Speaker 5: out rate is high, so he is able to pitch
• 25:06
  Speaker 5: at a major league level and pitch pretty effectively. But
• 25:09
  Speaker 5: he's still not as good as Ashcraft, and at least
• 25:12
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh has faced him before, although he's done pretty well
• 25:14
  Speaker 5: against them. But I'm still gonna lead towards Ashcraft being
• 25:17
  Speaker 5: the better pitcher here, and with the unfamiliarity that he has,
• 25:21
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh at least has.
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: Some familiarity with weathers.
• 25:23
  Speaker 5: They have twenty one at bats against him only a
• 25:25
  Speaker 5: two thirty eight average seven to forty one ohps. So
• 25:28
  Speaker 5: that's kind of more I would say, like mediocre range.
• 25:31
  Speaker 5: That's like really close to that seven to fifty threshold
• 25:34
  Speaker 5: that I use a four to three strike up walk ratio.
• 25:37
  Speaker 5: But I would prefer Ashcraft here. So it's just a
• 25:40
  Speaker 5: combination of everything. I think you get the better starting
• 25:42
  Speaker 5: pitcher here, you get a huge rest advantage and situational
• 25:45
  Speaker 5: advantage from Pittsburgh here. So that's what we're gonna go with.
• 25:48
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh is the last play I'm gonna give out here.
• 25:51
  Speaker 5: And I know Pittsburgh beat Cleveland yesterday, but whatever, I mean,
• 25:54
  Speaker 5: you're not gonna overlook the Yankees, man, I mean, you're
• 25:57
  Speaker 5: going to the Bronx.
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: That's a big deal.
• 25:59
  Speaker 5: So hopefully the pressure is not too much for Ashcraft here.
• 26:02
  Speaker 5: Hopefully we can get this done. I like it, and
• 26:05
  Speaker 5: the money seems like it's agreeing with me. By the way,
• 26:08
  Speaker 5: if I bring this up, if I can refresh this thing,
• 26:12
  Speaker 5: where's this game at Interleague?
• 26:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 26:15
  Speaker 5: So it looks like a really strong market read on
• 26:17
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh here, seventy three percent of tickets on the Yankees,
• 26:20
  Speaker 5: eighty two percent of the cash on Pittsburgh. Like nobody
• 26:23
  Speaker 5: knows who Ashcraft is, the money's all just backing the Yankees.
• 26:26
  Speaker 5: It looks like a pretty cheap price on the Yankees.
• 26:29
  Speaker 5: At about minus one twenty. It looks pretty easy to
• 26:31
  Speaker 5: try to play the Yankees here. I mean, even though
• 26:34
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh has had a decent season, the Yankees obviously have
• 26:36
  Speaker 5: the the I mean, not obviously, but I'm pretty sure
• 26:39
  Speaker 5: the Yankees have the better record here, So that's where
• 26:41
  Speaker 5: the public is gonna go. Yeah, they definitely have the
• 26:44
  Speaker 5: better record, although both teams have winning records here. I
• 26:47
  Speaker 5: thought I just heard another emergency broadcast signal over here.
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: I don't know what that was.
• 26:52
  Speaker 5: Starting to freak me out a little bit. Anyway, all right,
• 26:57
  Speaker 5: half an hour into the show Man, we've only done three.
• 27:00
  Speaker 5: That's not good. We have a big Monday slate. I
• 27:02
  Speaker 5: wish it was one of these smaller Monday slates, but
• 27:04
  Speaker 5: hopefully I'm focusing on the right games here. That's my
• 27:07
  Speaker 5: entire card for the day. But I'm gonna go through
• 27:09
  Speaker 5: all the rest of these games. Tampa Bay and Toronto
• 27:13
  Speaker 5: big divisional series here. Toronto's in last place in the
• 27:15
  Speaker 5: division because the Red Sox and the Orioles are both
• 27:18
  Speaker 5: on huge win streaks and they're playing each other starting today.
• 27:23
  Speaker 5: Toronto's yeah behind everybody now in this division. Tampa is
• 27:27
  Speaker 5: still hanging on to first place barely after having a
• 27:31
  Speaker 5: very bad series against the Red Sox. Toronto's staying at
• 27:34
  Speaker 5: home here. Toronto has not been playing well recently. They
• 27:36
  Speaker 5: lost four of the last five. They just lost to
• 27:39
  Speaker 5: the White Sox. Could be potentially a bounce back spot
• 27:42
  Speaker 5: for them. They do have Dylan C's pitching for them today,
• 27:44
  Speaker 5: so that might help them, although he is coming off
• 27:47
  Speaker 5: an All Star appearance. I'm pretty sure Tampa Bay they've
• 27:52
  Speaker 5: lost a bunch of games in a row as well.
• 27:54
  Speaker 5: They've lost five games in a row, so they're not
• 27:57
  Speaker 5: playing well. But they just got swept over the weekend
• 28:00
  Speaker 5: by the Red Sox. Could be a bounce back from them.
• 28:02
  Speaker 5: Maybe just getting out of Fenway Park will be a
• 28:04
  Speaker 5: good thing for Tampa. Although I was saying that I
• 28:06
  Speaker 5: expected Tampa to regress a little bit because they're winning
• 28:09
  Speaker 5: a lot of close games, early in the season, but
• 28:11
  Speaker 5: I did not expect the Red Sox to sweep them
• 28:15
  Speaker 5: over the weekend. Could be a bounce back for Tampa,
• 28:18
  Speaker 5: but I think they're at a little bit of a
• 28:19
  Speaker 5: disadvantage here with the pitching here Tampa Bay, I don't
• 28:23
  Speaker 5: love their bullpen. These two guys out of the bullpen yesterday,
• 28:26
  Speaker 5: so they're at least rested. I guess Toronto used three.
• 28:29
  Speaker 5: Toronto I think has the better bullpen. They're ranked ninth,
• 28:32
  Speaker 5: Tampa Bay sixth, but Tampa Bay's RA is like a
• 28:34
  Speaker 5: half run worse, so I think I prefer Toronto's bullpen
• 28:38
  Speaker 5: over Tampa's. Tampa's got the better offense there, ranked eleventh.
• 28:41
  Speaker 5: Right now, Toronto is twenty sixth and starting pitching Nick
• 28:46
  Speaker 5: Martinez is pitching for Tampa Bay's. He's a little bit
• 28:50
  Speaker 5: of a weird case man where he's having one of
• 28:53
  Speaker 5: his best seasons ever at the age of thirty five,
• 28:56
  Speaker 5: which is usually not something that you say two point
• 28:58
  Speaker 5: six to five RA point one to two whip. Advanced
• 29:02
  Speaker 5: analytics guys are probably pointing at him as one of
• 29:05
  Speaker 5: those examples of a regression candidate because he pitches more
• 29:09
  Speaker 5: to contact. But he's been consistently good this year. He's
• 29:12
  Speaker 5: been really good on the road two point one to
• 29:14
  Speaker 5: two Roady Ira, So all of that is good. He
• 29:18
  Speaker 5: did pitch in the All Star Game, though, and that
• 29:20
  Speaker 5: might be a little bit of a concern because he
• 29:22
  Speaker 5: had actually never been named to the All Star Team before.
• 29:24
  Speaker 5: I'm almost positive of that, even though he's thirty five.
• 29:29
  Speaker 5: It's like, I don't know, man, Maybe it's like Rush
• 29:32
  Speaker 5: getting into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame or whatever,
• 29:34
  Speaker 5: where they had to wait so long to get in
• 29:36
  Speaker 5: and they should have been in long ago. I think
• 29:38
  Speaker 5: that might be kind of similar here with Martinez.
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: He goes throughout like his.
• 29:42
  Speaker 5: Entire career without being an All Star and then he
• 29:44
  Speaker 5: finally gets named to the All Star Team, gets to
• 29:46
  Speaker 5: pitch in the All Star Game. Maybe he will be
• 29:49
  Speaker 5: in a little bit of a letdown after that, man,
• 29:51
  Speaker 5: I don't know, something to consider. He might be in
• 29:53
  Speaker 5: a little bit of a bad spot after that. He's
• 29:56
  Speaker 5: been pretty good on the season, though, no doubt about that.
• 29:58
  Speaker 5: He does have a fairly low hit rate, walk rates
• 30:00
  Speaker 5: really low. He doesn't walk anybody. But the advanced analytics
• 30:04
  Speaker 5: hate is coming because he doesn't strike anybody out and
• 30:07
  Speaker 5: he is fly ball heavy too, which doesn't really matter
• 30:11
  Speaker 5: in this stadium that much. But he hasn't really allowed
• 30:13
  Speaker 5: that many home runs. But yeah, his strikeout rate is
• 30:15
  Speaker 5: really low, so he pitches to contact, but he's been
• 30:18
  Speaker 5: successful at doing that.
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: Toronto is not exactly an elite.
• 30:22
  Speaker 5: Lineup that he has to go up against here, but
• 30:24
  Speaker 5: they actually have had success against him. Fifty eight at
• 30:26
  Speaker 5: bats two ninety three average, allowed eight to forty nine
• 30:29
  Speaker 5: oh ps, nine to five strikeout walk ratio, so he
• 30:32
  Speaker 5: has not really done that well against Toronto, and Toronto
• 30:35
  Speaker 5: is going to be going with Dylan Cees here, who
• 30:38
  Speaker 5: has been really good this year two point five six ERA,
• 30:41
  Speaker 5: one point one to three whip. He's been slightly worse
• 30:44
  Speaker 5: at home two point eight to two homer RA, but
• 30:46
  Speaker 5: is still really good. He pitched in the All Star
• 30:48
  Speaker 5: Game as well. I believe he started for the American
• 30:51
  Speaker 5: League and had a clean innings, struck out all the
• 30:54
  Speaker 5: guys that he got out in the inning, he walked
• 30:56
  Speaker 5: one guy, didn't allow any hits. I don't think that's
• 30:58
  Speaker 5: gonna be much of a concern with him. I'm pretty
• 31:00
  Speaker 5: sure he's been an All Star before, so I don't
• 31:02
  Speaker 5: really care about that he was pitching really well on
• 31:04
  Speaker 5: the two starts leading into the All Star Game.
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: I don't expect him.
• 31:08
  Speaker 5: To pitch poorly here. He does have a low hit rate.
• 31:10
  Speaker 5: His walk rate is definitely too high though. That's the
• 31:13
  Speaker 5: one issue with Cease is he walks a ton of guys.
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: But he has a.
• 31:18
  Speaker 5: Ridiculously low hit rate and he has a ridiculously high
• 31:21
  Speaker 5: strikeout rate. That's just the way that he pitches, man,
• 31:24
  Speaker 5: which I don't necessarily love it, because a lot of times.
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: He's inefficient with his pitches.
• 31:28
  Speaker 5: Like you see him throwing one hundred and ten pitches
• 31:31
  Speaker 5: and only going like five innings in a game.
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: I mean, that is a that's not efficiency.
• 31:35
  Speaker 5: Okay, he's got to somehow stop walking guys, but I
• 31:40
  Speaker 5: mean at this point, it's basically like he is what
• 31:42
  Speaker 5: he is, you know, but he I believe he is
• 31:46
  Speaker 5: pretty good against Tampa though they have sixty two at
• 31:49
  Speaker 5: bats against him. He's been pretty decent against them, two
• 31:51
  Speaker 5: fifty eight average, seven to seventeen oh ps a lot.
• 31:54
  Speaker 5: But again, the walks have been an issue. Thirteen strikeouts
• 31:57
  Speaker 5: fourteen walks. That is not a good ratio. I mean,
• 32:02
  Speaker 5: this is obviously a game I don't want to deal with.
• 32:04
  Speaker 5: But I don't know, man, I think ce SA has
• 32:07
  Speaker 5: the upper hand over Martinez, Like I would worry about
• 32:09
  Speaker 5: Martinez coming off his first All Star appearance or whatever.
• 32:13
  Speaker 5: I think Cease is going to be able to handle
• 32:15
  Speaker 5: his All Star appearance better. So I kind of lean
• 32:17
  Speaker 5: Toronto here. But the money doesn't agree with that. Sixty
• 32:20
  Speaker 5: six percent of tickets on Toronto, sixty four percent of
• 32:22
  Speaker 5: the cash on Tampa Bay, the total seven and a half,
• 32:27
  Speaker 5: so it is expected to be a low scoring game.
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: The money looks like it is backing the under here.
• 32:31
  Speaker 5: And you know, I mean it makes sense, right, I mean,
• 32:35
  Speaker 5: you have two pitchers that were named the All Star Team,
• 32:37
  Speaker 5: so obviously all Star teams, so obviously you're getting two
• 32:41
  Speaker 5: or no the All Star Team. They're both in the AL.
• 32:43
  Speaker 5: They're both in the AL. Now what am I saying?
• 32:46
  Speaker 5: So Martinez the last semi pitched, he actually was pitching
• 32:50
  Speaker 5: on the same team as Dylan Ceae in relief of
• 32:52
  Speaker 5: Dylan Cees.
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: So that's interesting.
• 32:55
  Speaker 5: Anyway, it makes sense that the totals low just because
• 32:59
  Speaker 5: it kind of has to be with the pitching matchup
• 33:00
  Speaker 5: like this.
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: Toronto.
• 33:03
  Speaker 5: I mean, perhaps you're paying too much of a price
• 33:05
  Speaker 5: just for the name at Dylan ceaes you're having a
• 33:07
  Speaker 5: lay about minus one fifty something with them. I still
• 33:10
  Speaker 5: think that probably would be how I would lean in
• 33:12
  Speaker 5: that one. That was making like a minus one run
• 33:15
  Speaker 5: line type of thing on Toronto and I haven't done
• 33:17
  Speaker 5: that in a while on the show, But that might
• 33:20
  Speaker 5: be my lean there. But I still I don't really
• 33:22
  Speaker 5: like it. I mean, I could see the argument for
• 33:24
  Speaker 5: the under, but I don't really love Martinez's matchup numbers,
• 33:27
  Speaker 5: so leaving it alone. Obviously, Baltimore and Boston, we have
• 33:32
  Speaker 5: two hot teams right now. The Red Sox have won
• 33:35
  Speaker 5: thirteen games in a row and they're in third place
• 33:38
  Speaker 5: in the division now and in one of the wildcard spots,
• 33:42
  Speaker 5: I'm pretty sure, and they're really not that far off
• 33:44
  Speaker 5: from the division lead, which is really insane to think about.
• 33:47
  Speaker 5: Although do I think they're gonna win this division? No,
• 33:50
  Speaker 5: Although in my season preview I did feel that the
• 33:52
  Speaker 5: Red Sox pitching was gonna be good enough that they
• 33:55
  Speaker 5: were gonna contend for a wildcard spot, and it looks
• 33:59
  Speaker 5: like maybe that is what they're going to do here.
• 34:02
  Speaker 5: Baltimore is coming in on a seven game win streak.
• 34:04
  Speaker 5: Red Sox is staying at home. Baltimore is coming in
• 34:06
  Speaker 5: from sweeping Houston over the weekend in Houston, so Baltimore
• 34:11
  Speaker 5: at a bit of a travel disadvantage just because they
• 34:13
  Speaker 5: do have to travel up from Houston. And they're probably
• 34:16
  Speaker 5: are at a bit of a starting pitching disadvantage here
• 34:18
  Speaker 5: as well, but I don't think it's that significant. Baltimore,
• 34:21
  Speaker 5: they do have a bullpen disadvantage as well. They only
• 34:24
  Speaker 5: use two guys out of the bullpen yesterday though Red
• 34:26
  Speaker 5: Sox only US three. Red Sox are number two in
• 34:30
  Speaker 5: bullpen right now, but they have the number one bullpen
• 34:32
  Speaker 5: ray right now. They've been a really good bullpen. Baltimore
• 34:36
  Speaker 5: not so much. Baltimore is tenth, but their ERA is
• 34:39
  Speaker 5: above four, so I think they're a little bit worse
• 34:41
  Speaker 5: than that. Baltimore is the better offense. Baltimore is seventeenth though,
• 34:46
  Speaker 5: so they're kind of mid range, and the Red Sox
• 34:48
  Speaker 5: have been climbing up slowly. They're tied in twenty first
• 34:51
  Speaker 5: right now with the Cardinals. Shane boz is pitching for Baltimore.
• 34:56
  Speaker 5: He's an okay pitcher. He walks too many guys and
• 34:59
  Speaker 5: that's really his main issue.
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: He's got a four.
• 35:01
  Speaker 5: Point one to nine ERA, but one point three to
• 35:03
  Speaker 5: nine whip is not really that good. He's slightly worse
• 35:06
  Speaker 5: on the road four point two to six road or ERA,
• 35:09
  Speaker 5: although his opponent batting average is actually lower on the road,
• 35:12
  Speaker 5: so you can make the argument he's not really worse
• 35:14
  Speaker 5: on the road. Wasn't really good in his last sounding
• 35:18
  Speaker 5: against Kansas City. He just gave up too many hits.
• 35:20
  Speaker 5: Didn't last, although he did strike out a lot of
• 35:23
  Speaker 5: guys in that one, but the prior couple starts he
• 35:25
  Speaker 5: was walking too many guys. His hit rate is a
• 35:28
  Speaker 5: little bit concerning. It's a little bit above one per inning,
• 35:31
  Speaker 5: which is not great. His walk rate is also too high,
• 35:33
  Speaker 5: which is not that good. His strike out rate is
• 35:36
  Speaker 5: not really that great either, So Boz, I mean, I
• 35:39
  Speaker 5: think he's not that bad, but across the board, his
• 35:41
  Speaker 5: numbers really aren't that good.
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: He's been good against.
• 35:44
  Speaker 5: The Red Sox, though the Red Sox seem to have
• 35:47
  Speaker 5: not been able to figure him out. They have sixty
• 35:48
  Speaker 5: two at bats against him, one sixty one average, four
• 35:52
  Speaker 5: to twenty three oh ps, seventeen to three strike out
• 35:54
  Speaker 5: walk ratio.
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: That's not great. So he does do well against the
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: Red Sox, it's not great for the Red Sox. This
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: is what I mean.
• 36:01
  Speaker 5: The Red Sox are gonna go with Peyton Toley here.
• 36:03
  Speaker 5: Totaly's having a pretty good season three point one one ERA,
• 36:06
  Speaker 5: one point oh seven whip. He's slightly worse at home
• 36:09
  Speaker 5: three point three to eight. Homye ra is still not
• 36:12
  Speaker 5: bad though. I don't know why he got taken out
• 36:15
  Speaker 5: early in the Mets game, the last game he pitched.
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: He was pitching okay.
• 36:19
  Speaker 5: In that game, he had a lot of strikeouts, seven
• 36:21
  Speaker 5: strikeouts and three and two thirds in He's give a
• 36:23
  Speaker 5: one run on three hits, one walk, and they took
• 36:26
  Speaker 5: him out at that point and they went to Bao
• 36:28
  Speaker 5: in relief. Bao has actually been really good in relief.
• 36:32
  Speaker 5: Whatever you think about that. I don't know Bao.
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: He's a head case dude, like he sucks as a starter,
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: but he's really good in relief. But whatever.
• 36:38
  Speaker 5: I don't think we have to worry about that here really.
• 36:40
  Speaker 5: But I just don't really know why Peyton Totley got
• 36:43
  Speaker 5: taken out of that game as early as he did.
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: But whatever, he's pitching pretty well.
• 36:48
  Speaker 5: He's got a low hit rate, his walk rate is
• 36:50
  Speaker 5: reasonably low as well, strikeout rate is fairly high, so
• 36:53
  Speaker 5: all of that is pretty good against Baltimore. They have
• 36:58
  Speaker 5: twenty two at bats against him. They actually I've had
• 37:00
  Speaker 5: some success against some a three eighteen batting average, although
• 37:03
  Speaker 5: the ops isn't really that high seven thirty nine, so
• 37:06
  Speaker 5: they haven't really hit him for power, but they have
• 37:07
  Speaker 5: hit him for contact, for strikeouts, two walks here.
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: Do I think Totally's actually gonna pitch poorly here?
• 37:15
  Speaker 5: Not really, I mean I think he is the better
• 37:18
  Speaker 5: pitcher here, but based on the matchup stats here and whatever,
• 37:21
  Speaker 5: I would slightly lean towards Baltimore here. And it looks
• 37:25
  Speaker 5: like the money does actually agree with that. The Red
• 37:27
  Speaker 5: Sox are about minus one forty something here, eighty six
• 37:30
  Speaker 5: percent of tickets seventy eight percent of the cash on them,
• 37:32
  Speaker 5: So the oddsmakers are definitely respecting the Red Sox as
• 37:35
  Speaker 5: being a decent team here, but the money is definitely
• 37:38
  Speaker 5: fading them here. Probably it has to do with the price,
• 37:42
  Speaker 5: but for me, I mean, the matchup, the specific matchup
• 37:45
  Speaker 5: seems to favor Baltimore. Their in favor Boss, but I
• 37:48
  Speaker 5: think what I would do is Baltimore first five innings.
• 37:51
  Speaker 5: I would not want to deal with Baltimore's bullpen here.
• 37:53
  Speaker 5: The Red Sox still have a bullpen advantage here. Baltimore's
• 37:56
  Speaker 5: travel is kind of a disadvantage. But I think if
• 37:58
  Speaker 5: you're gonna play the game at all, first five Baltimore,
• 38:01
  Speaker 5: I think, is what makes the most sense, you'll get
• 38:03
  Speaker 5: them as an underdog.
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: The money's also playing.
• 38:06
  Speaker 5: The over eight and a half, which I don't really
• 38:08
  Speaker 5: have a feel for that. All right, San Diego and Atlanta.
• 38:14
  Speaker 5: Looking at this series, I mean, this kind of feels
• 38:16
  Speaker 5: like kind of an under series because Atlanta they haven't
• 38:19
  Speaker 5: been as good offensively recently except yesterday. San Diego they
• 38:24
  Speaker 5: just haven't been good all year offensively, and Atlanta doesn't
• 38:26
  Speaker 5: do as well at home offensively this year. But then
• 38:30
  Speaker 5: I looked at the starting pitching matchup and I'm like,
• 38:32
  Speaker 5: I don't really think I want to be on an
• 38:33
  Speaker 5: under in this one. But I was thinking, you know,
• 38:35
  Speaker 5: the bullpens are both really good here, so that's another
• 38:38
  Speaker 5: thing where maybe we find some.
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: Unders in the series.
• 38:41
  Speaker 5: I don't want to do it in this game, but
• 38:43
  Speaker 5: as you'll see when I break this down, maybe it
• 38:45
  Speaker 5: is actually the way to look at this Atlanta's staying
• 38:48
  Speaker 5: at home. They beat us yesterday with a win over Texas. Unfortunately.
• 38:54
  Speaker 5: I don't know what it was, man, I mean they
• 38:55
  Speaker 5: had some they had some home runs off it Valdi.
• 38:59
  Speaker 5: I don't know why he allows so many home runs
• 39:01
  Speaker 5: this year, man. I think he gave up two yesterday.
• 39:03
  Speaker 5: I in the first few innings. I think, I don't
• 39:06
  Speaker 5: know what the deal is there San Diego. They're going
• 39:09
  Speaker 5: to be traveling in from Kansas Cities. They're a little
• 39:11
  Speaker 5: bit of a travel disadvantage. San Diego exploded offensively yesterday
• 39:15
  Speaker 5: for nineteen runs against Kansas City.
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: Probably not going to do that again.
• 39:20
  Speaker 5: You know, that seems like it was more of an
• 39:23
  Speaker 5: outlier than anything else.
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: San Diego does have a good bullpen.
• 39:27
  Speaker 5: They only these two guys out of the bullpen, so
• 39:28
  Speaker 5: they're well rested right now. Atlanta also has a good bullpen.
• 39:32
  Speaker 5: They used four relief pitchers yesterday, so they're at a
• 39:35
  Speaker 5: little bit of a rest disadvantage. But they are the
• 39:37
  Speaker 5: number one ranked bullpen, tied in second in the era
• 39:40
  Speaker 5: now though behind the Red Sox, tied with the Yankees.
• 39:44
  Speaker 5: San Diego's eleventh. But I think they're a better bullpen
• 39:47
  Speaker 5: than that. And offensively, Atlanta is somewhere in the middle,
• 39:50
  Speaker 5: I think, or actually they moved back up again. They're
• 39:52
  Speaker 5: ninth now, I think after they put up some runs
• 39:55
  Speaker 5: over the weekend, so maybe they're improving again. Offensively, they're
• 39:59
  Speaker 5: definitely better than San Diego, who is now twenty ninth.
• 40:02
  Speaker 5: Because they put up nineteen runs yesterday. San Diego is
• 40:04
  Speaker 5: now no longer the worst offense.
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: Way to go.
• 40:08
  Speaker 5: San Diego's gonna be going with JP Sears in this one. Sears,
• 40:12
  Speaker 5: I mean, he's a guy who's like I mean, I
• 40:14
  Speaker 5: think he's like serviceable enough that I was kind of
• 40:16
  Speaker 5: surprised that he didn't have a job in the majors
• 40:19
  Speaker 5: because you know, Major League Baseball teams are always looking
• 40:22
  Speaker 5: for pitchers, right, and I don't think he's that bad,
• 40:25
  Speaker 5: so I was kind of surprised that he wasn't on
• 40:27
  Speaker 5: a team to start the season. I know his numbers
• 40:29
  Speaker 5: don't look very good five point zero three e RA
• 40:32
  Speaker 5: one point four to two whit, but if you look
• 40:33
  Speaker 5: at what he's done, like throughout his career or whatever,
• 40:35
  Speaker 5: I think he's better than what that those numbers would suggest.
• 40:39
  Speaker 5: Hasn't been that good so far this year, though, five
• 40:41
  Speaker 5: point five to nine roadyra that's not very good. Struggled
• 40:45
  Speaker 5: last time out against Toronto, which maybe is not a
• 40:47
  Speaker 5: good sign because they're not a good offense, but he
• 40:49
  Speaker 5: pitched well in LA the start before that against the Dodgers,
• 40:54
  Speaker 5: so he's.
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: Tough to figure out.
• 40:56
  Speaker 5: Man so far overall, his hit rates a little bit high,
• 40:59
  Speaker 5: as walk rates little bit high. Strike out rate is okay,
• 41:02
  Speaker 5: not really much of a sample size to work with here,
• 41:05
  Speaker 5: but what we can see is that he's actually been
• 41:07
  Speaker 5: pretty good against the Braves in a big sample size
• 41:10
  Speaker 5: ninety at bats. He's held them to a two twenty
• 41:12
  Speaker 5: two average, six eighty two ops, fifteen to six strang
• 41:15
  Speaker 5: out walk ratio. That's not really that good, but these
• 41:18
  Speaker 5: numbers over overall are pretty good for him against the Braves,
• 41:21
  Speaker 5: so Sears might actually be able to match up okay
• 41:25
  Speaker 5: here against Atlanta. Bryce Elder is pitching for Atlanta. I mean,
• 41:28
  Speaker 5: I don't know if I really want to trust Elder here.
• 41:30
  Speaker 5: Man he looked good at the beginning of the season,
• 41:33
  Speaker 5: but he's been pretty bad recently. He's got a four
• 41:35
  Speaker 5: point one two ERA one point two to five whip,
• 41:38
  Speaker 5: so his season wide numbers is still pretty good, and
• 41:40
  Speaker 5: he's been better.
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: At home three point three four homey.
• 41:43
  Speaker 5: Ra, so he's in the better of his splits here,
• 41:45
  Speaker 5: but he's been awful recently. He's had like four bad
• 41:48
  Speaker 5: starts in a row, a couple of them against bad
• 41:50
  Speaker 5: offenses too, most of them on the road, though, But
• 41:54
  Speaker 5: this is still not good.
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: The last time he was at home he got wrecked
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: by Milwaukee.
• 41:58
  Speaker 5: I know they're a pretty good offense, but I don't
• 42:00
  Speaker 5: know if Elder is that trustworthy here right now.
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: He does have a.
• 42:03
  Speaker 5: Reasonably low hit rate here, his walk rate is okay,
• 42:06
  Speaker 5: his strikeout rate is not that high, although he's not
• 42:08
  Speaker 5: really a strikeout pitcher.
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: I don't know what to think about Elder here.
• 42:12
  Speaker 5: Man at least he does draw San Diego as as
• 42:15
  Speaker 5: an opponent here. They're not a good offense, and he's
• 42:18
  Speaker 5: held them down in twenty five career at bats, not
• 42:21
  Speaker 5: a big sample, but they only have a two hundred
• 42:22
  Speaker 5: average against him six forty six oh ps five to
• 42:26
  Speaker 5: three strikeout walk ratio. So we go all the way
• 42:29
  Speaker 5: around and we circle back to me thinking that the
• 42:31
  Speaker 5: best way to play this game is actually probably to
• 42:33
  Speaker 5: take it under the total.
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: But it's a high total.
• 42:37
  Speaker 5: Which I know makes it seem, oh, well, then you
• 42:39
  Speaker 5: really want to play the under here. That's not the
• 42:41
  Speaker 5: way that I think about it, though, Like, yeah, it
• 42:43
  Speaker 5: looks like there's more value, and I if you force
• 42:46
  Speaker 5: me to give you a play on this game, I
• 42:47
  Speaker 5: would say to play the under. But the totals nine,
• 42:50
  Speaker 5: and that kind of worries me, man, that the oddsmakers
• 42:52
  Speaker 5: are not really expecting that these pitchers are actually going
• 42:56
  Speaker 5: to pitch well here in Elder's recent form is bad.
• 42:59
  Speaker 5: Sears has exactly been good since he's returned to the majors.
• 43:04
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I mean, he was decent last year, but.
• 43:06
  Speaker 5: I don't know, man, Although I think Sears might have
• 43:09
  Speaker 5: been on the A's last year, so I think his
• 43:11
  Speaker 5: numbers in that stadium were bad.
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: It's a difficult handicap, man.
• 43:16
  Speaker 5: The money's back in the over though, sixty four percent
• 43:18
  Speaker 5: of tickets on the under, eighty eight percent of the
• 43:20
  Speaker 5: cash on the over.
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: My lean would be under.
• 43:23
  Speaker 5: And then it looks like Atlanta's a very public side
• 43:25
  Speaker 5: at about minus one forty something, eighty six percent of
• 43:28
  Speaker 5: tickets eighty seven percent of the cash on them. I
• 43:31
  Speaker 5: would not play Atlanta, though, I mean they look way
• 43:33
  Speaker 5: too public for me, even though I don't really want
• 43:35
  Speaker 5: any part of San Diego off of that offensive outburst yesterday.
• 43:40
  Speaker 5: But the other reason why the under could maybe make
• 43:44
  Speaker 5: sense and be worth a look here is you had
• 43:45
  Speaker 5: Atlanta kind of exploding offensively over the weekend with a
• 43:49
  Speaker 5: couple of big run outputs over the weekend, including yesterday,
• 43:52
  Speaker 5: and San Diego put up a ton of runs yesterday.
• 43:54
  Speaker 5: So sometimes I want to like counter that and fade
• 43:57
  Speaker 5: that in the next game, you know what I mean, thinking, Oh,
• 43:59
  Speaker 5: these teams just exploded offensively. Well, maybe we want to
• 44:04
  Speaker 5: fade that sentiment, fade the recency bias, you know.
• 44:06
  Speaker 3: What I mean.
• 44:07
  Speaker 5: Although you could make the argument that, well, these bats
• 44:09
  Speaker 5: are just hot right now and there's some momentum there,
• 44:13
  Speaker 5: you know what I mean. So whatever, those are my
• 44:15
  Speaker 5: thoughts on that game. I'm all over the place.
• 44:20
  Speaker 3: Padres.
• 44:21
  Speaker 5: They keep beating the Braves. They eliminated them from the playoffs.
• 44:24
  Speaker 5: When was that last year or the year before that?
• 44:26
  Speaker 5: Maybe I think it was the year before that. Yeah,
• 44:29
  Speaker 5: I don't know, I don't know what the deal is
• 44:30
  Speaker 5: with that. You're a Braves fan, yeah, Padres, Well, the
• 44:38
  Speaker 5: Padres don't have Dylan Ceas anymore, though Dylan Cease was
• 44:40
  Speaker 5: part of that, I think, and he's no longer there,
• 44:43
  Speaker 5: so Padres having a much weaker pitching rotation without him there,
• 44:46
  Speaker 5: You'll only have to really worry about Michael King pretty much.
• 44:50
  Speaker 5: This Padres pitching rotation is really bad. Their bullpen is
• 44:55
  Speaker 5: still good, though Elder he might.
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: Be tipping his He's a really street keep pitcher. Dude.
• 45:00
  Speaker 5: Like he's just like he's like he looks really good
• 45:05
  Speaker 5: at times for like long stretches, and then he'll go
• 45:07
  Speaker 5: on long stretches where he's absolutely horrible. So yeah, there's
• 45:10
  Speaker 5: something going on with that.
• 45:12
  Speaker 3: I have no idea. All right, Mets in Milwaukee.
• 45:15
  Speaker 5: This is gonna be the Freddie Peralta battle here because
• 45:18
  Speaker 5: he's going up against his former team for the first time,
• 45:21
  Speaker 5: which I'll talk about in a second, because I think
• 45:23
  Speaker 5: that is a motivating factor. Milwaukee swept Miami over the weekend.
• 45:28
  Speaker 5: I thought they wouldn't win yesterday, but they still did.
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 45:32
  Speaker 5: I mean, Milwaukee's a good team, man, They're one of
• 45:34
  Speaker 5: the best teams in baseball.
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: The Mets not so much.
• 45:37
  Speaker 5: Although the Mets are on my good side right now
• 45:39
  Speaker 5: because we got two wins out of them over the weekend,
• 45:43
  Speaker 5: we won or well on Thursday, and then on yesterday,
• 45:45
  Speaker 5: I guess we had winners on the show with both
• 45:47
  Speaker 5: of the Mets wins in that Philadelphia series. So I've
• 45:50
  Speaker 5: had a good gauge on the Mets recently. At least
• 45:53
  Speaker 5: Mets are coming in off of that win over Philadelphia.
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: That's a big win.
• 45:56
  Speaker 5: So you could argue maybe a letdown spot for the
• 45:58
  Speaker 5: Mets here, but I don't really think so. You're not
• 46:00
  Speaker 5: gonna overlook Milwaukee, you know, but they are traveling in
• 46:04
  Speaker 5: from Philadelphia, so they're having to travel, whereas Milwaukee is
• 46:07
  Speaker 5: staying at home. Milwaukee has a good bullpen as well.
• 46:10
  Speaker 5: They only us three guys out of the bullpen yesterday.
• 46:14
  Speaker 5: The Mets, their bullpen's been okay, but not as good
• 46:16
  Speaker 5: as Milwaukee.
• 46:18
  Speaker 3: And they've struggled a bit recently.
• 46:19
  Speaker 5: The Mets used four three guys excuse me, out of
• 46:21
  Speaker 5: the bullpen yesterday. Mets are still ranked twelve, which isn't
• 46:25
  Speaker 5: too bad, but Milwaukee is the better bullpen. They're ranked eighth,
• 46:28
  Speaker 5: but their era is significantly better, so I think Milwaukee
• 46:31
  Speaker 5: has the better bullpen here. Milwaukee has the better offense
• 46:35
  Speaker 5: as well. They're ranked tenth in offense. The Mets are
• 46:38
  Speaker 5: twenty seventh here, tied with Seattle. Believe it or not,
• 46:42
  Speaker 5: Freddy Peralta is going for the Mets now. He's not
• 46:45
  Speaker 5: having a good season, man, which I keep thinking he's
• 46:48
  Speaker 5: gonna turn this thing around, because he's never been this bad,
• 46:50
  Speaker 5: like in his entire career, you know, which he spent
• 46:53
  Speaker 5: I believe pretty much all of it with Milwaukee, and
• 46:57
  Speaker 5: I know he's been bad four point six to SIXTYRA
• 46:59
  Speaker 5: one point four whip bad on the road, five point
• 47:02
  Speaker 5: five to eight roadier, So he's been really bad on
• 47:04
  Speaker 5: the road. Do we trust him in this game is
• 47:08
  Speaker 5: really the question here because he's not had a good season,
• 47:11
  Speaker 5: he's not been good on the road. He doesn't look
• 47:12
  Speaker 5: very trustworthy right now. I think if he's gonna get
• 47:15
  Speaker 5: up for a game, though, it's got to be this
• 47:17
  Speaker 5: one because he's going up against the team that got
• 47:19
  Speaker 5: rid of him for the first time. And I think
• 47:21
  Speaker 5: that's a motivating factor for a starting pitcher, especially when
• 47:25
  Speaker 5: the first time they go up against a team that
• 47:27
  Speaker 5: let them go. It's like they have something to prove,
• 47:29
  Speaker 5: you know what I mean, Like you're gonna let me go?
• 47:31
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna prove to you that I still got it right.
• 47:34
  Speaker 5: So I think Peralta might be in a positive motivational
• 47:38
  Speaker 5: spot here. I don't really know if I want to
• 47:40
  Speaker 5: trust him, though, the way he's been pitching, he has
• 47:42
  Speaker 5: not been pitching well. He's failed to make it five
• 47:44
  Speaker 5: innings at three starts in a row. He's walked a
• 47:47
  Speaker 5: ton of guys over that. Man, this is not good.
• 47:50
  Speaker 5: His hit rate is actually too high right now too.
• 47:53
  Speaker 5: His walk rate is kind of high. His strikeout rate
• 47:55
  Speaker 5: is actually his strikeout rate is pretty good. I mean,
• 47:59
  Speaker 5: he's I still think something is going to happen where
• 48:02
  Speaker 5: he's going to turn this around, though, Like his career
• 48:04
  Speaker 5: numbers are just so much better than this.
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: I don't know what the deal is.
• 48:08
  Speaker 5: Like, he hasn't been this bad since his second season
• 48:10
  Speaker 5: in baseball, and he was mostly a relief pitcher back then.
• 48:14
  Speaker 5: I don't know what to tell you, man, I don't
• 48:15
  Speaker 5: know what the deal is. It's like being on the
• 48:17
  Speaker 5: Mets is just not a motivator or something. So maybe
• 48:20
  Speaker 5: if motivation is a problem, maybe he will pitch better
• 48:22
  Speaker 5: here because maybe he will find the motivation to go
• 48:25
  Speaker 5: up against his former team.
• 48:26
  Speaker 3: But Milwaukee.
• 48:28
  Speaker 5: They only have two guys who have faced him, so
• 48:29
  Speaker 5: they're definitely unfamiliar with him. But the two guys who
• 48:31
  Speaker 5: have faced him in ten at bats, they have a
• 48:34
  Speaker 5: five hundred average against him and eleven hundred ohps. That's
• 48:39
  Speaker 5: William Contreras, not Wilson Contreras, who's hitting well for the
• 48:43
  Speaker 5: Red Sox right now, and Andrew Vaughan, and they have
• 48:46
  Speaker 5: combined for those numbers there. Three strikeouts, no walks there.
• 48:50
  Speaker 5: So I have no idea what you're gonna get out
• 48:52
  Speaker 5: of Peralta here. Like the motivation might actually get you
• 48:55
  Speaker 5: a good start out of him, and because he's going
• 48:57
  Speaker 5: up against miss Zerowski, he might really try to find
• 49:00
  Speaker 5: something in the tank because he knows he has to
• 49:02
  Speaker 5: duel one of the elite pitchers in baseball. So you
• 49:06
  Speaker 5: might actually get a good performance out of Peralta here.
• 49:09
  Speaker 5: I don't want to have my money on it, though.
• 49:12
  Speaker 5: Jacob Mazerowski obviously has been debatably the best pitcher in
• 49:16
  Speaker 5: all of baseball, even though he's really young and it's
• 49:18
  Speaker 5: only his second season and first full season in the majors.
• 49:22
  Speaker 5: One point six to two ERA point seven to six
• 49:25
  Speaker 5: whip absolutely ridiculous. One point five to nine home He
• 49:29
  Speaker 5: ra insane. I'm pretty sure that he was on the
• 49:32
  Speaker 5: All Star team, but he didn't pitch in the game.
• 49:34
  Speaker 5: But I don't even think that's gonna matter that much.
• 49:37
  Speaker 5: I mean, he's just been pitching any elite level dude.
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: Like, I just don't really see him.
• 49:43
  Speaker 5: Really taking that much of a step back coming off
• 49:46
  Speaker 5: of probably being on the All Star team or whatever,
• 49:49
  Speaker 5: which I think was the first time that's happened for him.
• 49:51
  Speaker 5: Because this is his first full season, He's got a
• 49:54
  Speaker 5: ridiculously low hit rate, his walk rate isn't even high,
• 49:57
  Speaker 5: his strikeout rate is really high. I mean, it's ridiculous,
• 50:00
  Speaker 5: absolutely ridiculous. He has like one of the most elite
• 50:05
  Speaker 5: fastballs that you'll ever see, obviously, but along with you know,
• 50:08
  Speaker 5: other pitches against the Mets, I mean, obviously we know
• 50:11
  Speaker 5: they're not a good offense, so they're probably not gonna
• 50:15
  Speaker 5: do a whole lot against him here. They have not
• 50:17
  Speaker 5: hit him well in the past, so though they only
• 50:19
  Speaker 5: have five hitters who have faced him seven at bats
• 50:21
  Speaker 5: one forty three average nine to seventy one ops though,
• 50:24
  Speaker 5: because Lindor actually has a home run off them, and
• 50:27
  Speaker 5: that's the only hit, one strike up three walks by
• 50:30
  Speaker 5: the way, but still yeah, I mean, I'm not gonna
• 50:33
  Speaker 5: put much weight into the fact that he's allowed a
• 50:35
  Speaker 5: home run to lind Or who cares. I think Mizerowski
• 50:38
  Speaker 5: should pitch well here. The total in this game is low,
• 50:41
  Speaker 5: so the odds makers kind of are expecting this to
• 50:44
  Speaker 5: be a pitching duel, and that was kind of my
• 50:47
  Speaker 5: thinking on this game as well. Though the money seems
• 50:49
  Speaker 5: to be somewhat backing the over sixty five percent of
• 50:52
  Speaker 5: ticket seventy percent of the cash on the over, though
• 50:54
  Speaker 5: it does seem a little bit public, seven and a
• 50:57
  Speaker 5: half being the total kind of as an indicator, the
• 50:59
  Speaker 5: odds makers think it's gonna be a pitching duel, and
• 51:01
  Speaker 5: the money fading Milwaukee kind of makes it seem that
• 51:05
  Speaker 5: way too, although a lot of it is just because
• 51:06
  Speaker 5: of the price, Like you know, you're gonna have to
• 51:08
  Speaker 5: pay a huge price for mizierouse get like minus two
• 51:11
  Speaker 5: hundred and something ninety two percent of the tickets around Milwaukee,
• 51:14
  Speaker 5: eighty nine percent of the cash, So the money is
• 51:17
  Speaker 5: fading Milwaukee here, and you gotta think, again, it's just
• 51:19
  Speaker 5: the price, Like should the Mets really be that much
• 51:22
  Speaker 5: of an underdog here with Peralta, like if he if
• 51:25
  Speaker 5: he can find, you know, the ability to pitch again,
• 51:30
  Speaker 5: he should be able to at least stay.
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: In this game.
• 51:34
  Speaker 5: I think, like, keep them in this game. I think
• 51:37
  Speaker 5: I would lean under in this one, but it's difficult
• 51:40
  Speaker 5: to really do it, man, not knowing what you're gonna
• 51:42
  Speaker 5: get out of Paralta at all. I mean, if you
• 51:44
  Speaker 5: want to go with the Mets to go under their
• 51:45
  Speaker 5: team total and just go with Mizierouski to dominate them,
• 51:49
  Speaker 5: I mean you could do that too, but you're probably
• 51:50
  Speaker 5: gonna be.
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: Looking at them. You're gonna need them.
• 51:52
  Speaker 5: To score probably like two runs or less if you
• 51:55
  Speaker 5: want to do it that way. So that's pretty dangerous.
• 51:58
  Speaker 5: So I don't really have a great approach in that game.
• 52:00
  Speaker 5: Full game under the seven and a half might still
• 52:03
  Speaker 5: be the best way to try to approach that game.
• 52:05
  Speaker 5: You at least got two decent bullpens, and you have
• 52:08
  Speaker 5: one elite pitcher and another pitcher who is at least
• 52:11
  Speaker 5: better than he looks. So that's what I have to
• 52:14
  Speaker 5: say about that. Yeah, the Mets clubhouse is something going
• 52:17
  Speaker 5: on there. I mean, they fired their manager earlier this year,
• 52:20
  Speaker 5: though A lot of times that will give your team
• 52:21
  Speaker 5: a spark. Like the Red Sox look like they're starting
• 52:24
  Speaker 5: to gel under their interim manager, Chad Tracy, who is
• 52:30
  Speaker 5: not the same Chad Tracy who used to be a
• 52:32
  Speaker 5: third baseman in the main Like I was thinking, oh,
• 52:34
  Speaker 5: that yeah, Chad Tracy, I remember him as a player,
• 52:37
  Speaker 5: and they're like, wait, it's a different Chad Tracy.
• 52:40
  Speaker 3: How are their too Chad Tracys in baseball? I don't know.
• 52:43
  Speaker 5: I don't know where the Chad Tracy the third basement
• 52:46
  Speaker 5: is now. Anyway, this show has taken longer than I expected.
• 52:50
  Speaker 5: Man San Francisco at Kansas City. Kansas City is staying
• 52:54
  Speaker 5: at home and they lost badly yesterday, so it could
• 52:57
  Speaker 5: be potentially a bounced back spot for Kansas City here.
• 53:00
  Speaker 5: And they do have their best pitcher on the mound
• 53:02
  Speaker 5: today too, so maybe there's something to that. Although when
• 53:06
  Speaker 5: I show you a matchup numbers, it doesn't look that good.
• 53:09
  Speaker 5: San Francisco is coming in from Seattle, so they're having
• 53:11
  Speaker 5: to travel from the Pacific coast after losing to Seattle.
• 53:15
  Speaker 5: And I told you their offense is gonna drop off again,
• 53:17
  Speaker 5: it looks like it is. Although their offense might climb
• 53:20
  Speaker 5: again here in this Kansas City series because you're looking
• 53:22
  Speaker 5: at mostly bad pitching on the Kansas City side.
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: Their bullpen is very bad.
• 53:27
  Speaker 5: The walls have been moved in in Kansas City, so
• 53:30
  Speaker 5: San Francisco's offense I think they're gonna possibly benefit again
• 53:35
  Speaker 5: from being in a hitter friendly ballpark here. Kansas City
• 53:39
  Speaker 5: could potentially be in a bounce back, and they have
• 53:40
  Speaker 5: a travel advantage because they're staying at home San Francisco
• 53:43
  Speaker 5: coming here from Seattle. Kansas City's bullpen is an absolute
• 53:48
  Speaker 5: train wreck. Though they used three guys out of the
• 53:50
  Speaker 5: bullpen yesterday, San Francisco only used two.
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: Kansas City is bottom of the barrel. Dude.
• 53:56
  Speaker 5: They're dead last in bullpen and they're almost the worst
• 53:58
  Speaker 5: era as well. Not good, not good the other bullpen
• 54:04
  Speaker 5: involved in this game. I already forget who the hell
• 54:07
  Speaker 5: are we, oh, San Francisco. They've really underperformed, dude. I
• 54:10
  Speaker 5: thought San Francisco's bullpen would be a lot better given
• 54:13
  Speaker 5: what they looked like last year, But this year they're
• 54:15
  Speaker 5: twenty third. They haven't been that good, but they're better
• 54:17
  Speaker 5: than Kansas City, so at least there's that Their offense
• 54:21
  Speaker 5: is fourteenth right now, middle of the pack, and again
• 54:24
  Speaker 5: I don't think they're that good, but this is a
• 54:25
  Speaker 5: hitter friendly ballpark here, and Kansas City is eighteenth offensively
• 54:30
  Speaker 5: right now. San Francisco is going with Trevor McDonald. I mean,
• 54:33
  Speaker 5: he's been kind of all over the place, man, Like
• 54:36
  Speaker 5: he pitched well last year. He's still a young guy,
• 54:39
  Speaker 5: and he looked pretty good for a while this year,
• 54:41
  Speaker 5: but he's had some struggles too. His numbers aren't really
• 54:43
  Speaker 5: that good five point oh two ERA, one point three whip,
• 54:46
  Speaker 5: although that kind of indicates his ERA should be lower
• 54:49
  Speaker 5: than it is. So I think he is better than
• 54:51
  Speaker 5: his RA makes him look. And he's been good on
• 54:53
  Speaker 5: the road. I don't really know why he's been so
• 54:55
  Speaker 5: bad at home and was supposed to be a pitcher
• 54:57
  Speaker 5: friendly park, but on the road he's been pretty good.
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: Three point one nine Rody RA.
• 55:02
  Speaker 5: He pitched well in his last start against Colorado, which
• 55:04
  Speaker 5: was actually at home. Two of his last three starts
• 55:07
  Speaker 5: were good, although the one that was not good was
• 55:10
  Speaker 5: really bad against Toronto. So it's almost like there's no
• 55:13
  Speaker 5: in between with him, Like he's either gonna give you
• 55:15
  Speaker 5: a really good start or a really bad start. His
• 55:19
  Speaker 5: hit rate is okay, it's less than one per inning
• 55:21
  Speaker 5: at least. His walk rate is too high, so he's
• 55:24
  Speaker 5: got to figure that out. And his strikeout rate is
• 55:26
  Speaker 5: not really that high either. He's basically a ground ball pitcher,
• 55:29
  Speaker 5: so that might actually help him in this stadium because again,
• 55:33
  Speaker 5: the walls have been moved in in Kansas City, so
• 55:36
  Speaker 5: if he's a ground ball pitcher, maybe he can keep
• 55:40
  Speaker 5: the home runs kind of limited because of his style
• 55:42
  Speaker 5: and Kansas City, I'm pretty sure they have never faced
• 55:45
  Speaker 5: him before. Yeah, so he has that advantage to at
• 55:48
  Speaker 5: least he has the unfamiliarity edge against Kansas City here,
• 55:51
  Speaker 5: so that might help him out a little bit where
• 55:53
  Speaker 5: Kansas City has to try to figure him out on
• 55:54
  Speaker 5: the fly. Kansas City's going with Michael Walka, and he
• 55:58
  Speaker 5: should be the more predictable Pitcher's good, he's had a
• 56:00
  Speaker 5: good season.
• 56:01
  Speaker 3: He's had a good career.
• 56:02
  Speaker 5: Three point seven to seventy RRA, one point one to
• 56:05
  Speaker 5: nine whip not bad, pretty good at home as well,
• 56:08
  Speaker 5: three point two to one. Homy Ray did pitch in
• 56:11
  Speaker 5: the All Star Game.
• 56:11
  Speaker 3: But with a veteran like him.
• 56:13
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna I'm I haven't looked it up, but I
• 56:15
  Speaker 5: would assume he's probably been an All Star before at
• 56:18
  Speaker 5: some point, so I don't think that should really throw
• 56:20
  Speaker 5: him off.
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: But he wasn't really pitching that well going into the
• 56:23
  Speaker 3: All Star break. However, he was pretty good the prior month,
• 56:28
  Speaker 3: especially the last three starts of June. I mean, I
• 56:30
  Speaker 3: still think he's generally pretty good. He's got a pretty
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: low hit rate, his walk rate is low, strikeout rate
• 56:35
  Speaker 3: is not really that high.
• 56:36
  Speaker 5: But obviously he just doesn't do that like he's more
• 56:39
  Speaker 5: of a pitch to contact pitcher.
• 56:41
  Speaker 3: So advanced analytics guys are, you know, not gonna love him.
• 56:45
  Speaker 5: But he's been consistent, like throughout his career man, so
• 56:48
  Speaker 5: there is something to the way that he pitches, even
• 56:51
  Speaker 5: though he's a contact pitcher. However, San Francisco has lit
• 56:55
  Speaker 5: him up in their careers in forty four at bats
• 56:58
  Speaker 5: three eighteen batting average allowed nine to seventy ops nine
• 57:01
  Speaker 5: to one strike out walk ratio. So the ratio is
• 57:05
  Speaker 5: good there, but the rest of the numbers are not good. Swaka,
• 57:08
  Speaker 5: he looks like he has the disadvantage to me in
• 57:11
  Speaker 5: the starting pitching matchup. Now the money is back in
• 57:13
  Speaker 5: Kansas City here sixty two percent of tickets eighty nine
• 57:16
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash on them.
• 57:17
  Speaker 3: So it looks like the market.
• 57:18
  Speaker 5: Read is saying Kansas City and kind of saying the under.
• 57:23
  Speaker 3: The totals at ten and a half.
• 57:24
  Speaker 5: It looks like a public under, which is you almost
• 57:27
  Speaker 5: never see public under. So I don't know how much
• 57:29
  Speaker 5: I really buy that, but it looks like the money
• 57:31
  Speaker 5: is kind of hitting the under here. I don't really
• 57:34
  Speaker 5: have a good read on the total here. Kansas City
• 57:37
  Speaker 5: is the side as far as the market is concerned,
• 57:39
  Speaker 5: but I kind of disagree with it, Like I think
• 57:41
  Speaker 5: I might lean San Francisco a little bit, and I
• 57:42
  Speaker 5: think you could potentially go full game on that because
• 57:45
  Speaker 5: Kansas City's bullpen is that bad. So I think McDonald
• 57:50
  Speaker 5: with this unfamiliarity might actually be able to outpitch Waka
• 57:53
  Speaker 5: here because just based on the matchup numbers, it's just
• 57:55
  Speaker 5: not a good matchup for Waka. Do I really want
• 57:58
  Speaker 5: to put my money on it though, and fade when
• 58:00
  Speaker 5: he's been solid this year, good at home? Not really,
• 58:04
  Speaker 5: I really don't want to do it. I don't really
• 58:05
  Speaker 5: want to go against the market read like that either,
• 58:07
  Speaker 5: unless I think there's a better reason to do that.
• 58:09
  Speaker 3: So it's a stay away again for me. The next game.
• 58:14
  Speaker 5: I think every baseball team is playing today, so it's
• 58:16
  Speaker 5: a much larger Monday card than board than what you
• 58:20
  Speaker 5: usually get White Sox and Rangers. Texas is actually returning
• 58:24
  Speaker 5: home from a road trip, although it was only a
• 58:27
  Speaker 5: single series road trip to Atlanta, so I don't think
• 58:29
  Speaker 5: it's really that big of a deal. Like you know,
• 58:31
  Speaker 5: I like fading teams when they return home from long
• 58:33
  Speaker 5: road trips because I think they have stuff to do
• 58:35
  Speaker 5: that's accumulated back at home and they have to do
• 58:38
  Speaker 5: that and it gets it to be a distraction. But
• 58:40
  Speaker 5: coming off of a single series road trip, it's probably
• 58:43
  Speaker 5: not as big of a deal.
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: I don't know if they're going to tend to overlook
• 58:48
  Speaker 3: the White Sox.
• 58:49
  Speaker 5: Probably not, because the White Sox are leading the Al
• 58:52
  Speaker 5: Central right now. White Sox are coming in from Toronto,
• 58:55
  Speaker 5: so the travel spot is not exactly great for them.
• 58:58
  Speaker 5: They just beat Toronto over the weekend, they got to travel.
• 59:00
  Speaker 3: Down to Texas.
• 59:01
  Speaker 5: Now, Texas, as we know, they have a pitcher friendly ballpark.
• 59:05
  Speaker 5: Their bullpen hasn't really been good recently though, in the
• 59:08
  Speaker 5: use five guys out of the bullpen yesterday. That's kind
• 59:11
  Speaker 5: of a concern for Texas here. As far as the
• 59:15
  Speaker 5: White Sox are concerned, their bullpen's actually been okay. They
• 59:18
  Speaker 5: only use two guys out of the bullpen yesterday. The
• 59:20
  Speaker 5: Rangers are ranked lower than the White Sox, I think
• 59:23
  Speaker 5: now in bullpen let me see where are they at? No,
• 59:25
  Speaker 5: the Rangers are fifteenth, the White Sox are eighteenth, but
• 59:27
  Speaker 5: the White Socks have a better era now now, I
• 59:30
  Speaker 5: don't actually think the Rangers are the worst of the
• 59:33
  Speaker 5: two bullpens here, but they have been bad recently, so
• 59:36
  Speaker 5: I don't know what to think.
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 59:38
  Speaker 5: I think that there's not that much of a disparity
• 59:40
  Speaker 5: between the two bullpens right now. White Sox are twelfth. Offensively,
• 59:43
  Speaker 5: they're the better offense here. Texas is sixteenth. But yeah,
• 59:46
  Speaker 5: the White Sox have the better offense starting pitching here,
• 59:50
  Speaker 5: it looks like it's a huge advantage to Texas, but
• 59:52
  Speaker 5: when you dig into the matchup numbers, it doesn't actually
• 59:54
  Speaker 5: really appear to be the case. Eric Fetti is pitching
• 59:58
  Speaker 5: for the White Sox though, and you know, I'm not
• 59:59
  Speaker 5: a I don't think he's very good, but maybe this
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 5: will be an okay matchup for him. Now, with the
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 5: White Sox, you do have to worry about them putting
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 5: an opener in front of him. So if you're gonna
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 5: play this game, I think you should select de gram
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 5: must start on the side of the Rangers, but don't
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 5: specify a White Sox pitcher. He goes, I'm pretty sure
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 5: it's going to be either Feedti's starting or they're gonna
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 5: put an opener in front of him, and then he's
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 5: gonna pitch Fetti as a four point one to five ERA.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 5: One point four to whip is really not good though,
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 5: and he has not been good on the road five
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 5: point four to eight roady ra so that is not good.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 5: He's actually been pitching somewhat reasonable over the last month
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 5: or so, those walk rate hasn't really been that good,
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 5: so I don't know.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 3: I don't know what to think about that.
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 5: Overall, his numbers aren't really that good, his hit rates
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 5: kind of high, his walk rate is too high, strike
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 5: out rate is low. So there's really not a whole
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 5: lot to like there, except he's facing the Rangers here
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 5: in a pitcher friendly ballpark, and he does have good
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 5: numbers against them in fifty seven at bats one fifty
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 5: eight average allowed four to forty three oh ps, although
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 5: not a good ratio here with the strikeout walk ratio
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 5: fourteen to seven, but the rest of those numbers are good,
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 5: so FEddi might actually pitch well in this game. Jacob
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 5: de Gram is pitching for Texas. We know he's a
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 5: future Hall of Famer. He's still pitching well even though
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 5: he's thirty eight. He's got a three point four to
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 5: nine e RA, one point h one whip. He's been
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 5: good at home two point five to one homey RA.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 5: He's been really difficult to get to at home. He's
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 5: pitching well. He looks like he's in pretty good form
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 5: right now. His strikeout rate is still pretty high recently,
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 5: so that's all pretty good. He's got a low hit rate,
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 5: low walk rate, high strikeout rate.
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 3: All of that is strong stuff. Man.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 5: A little bit of an issue with the home runs,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 5: but strong otherwise. And the ballpark at Arlington in Texas
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 5: or whatever the hell it is now keeps the I
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 5: think it's a different name now, it's a new it's
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 5: I think it's a new stadium now. It does keep
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 5: the balls in the yard though, and against the White
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 5: Sox hold on obviously, his numbers are not.
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 3: As good as you would think.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 5: They're kind of mediocre against the White Sox and thirty
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 5: four at bats two thirty five average, seven to seventy
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 5: eight ops eleven to two strike out walk ratio. So
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 5: it's the ops that's really kind of the problem there.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 5: Maybe that's a little bit fluky because that kind of
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 5: means it's basically like home runs that are getting to them.
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 5: The money seems like it's backing Texas. I don't think
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 5: I would do that. They're about minus one seventy. I
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 5: think you're paying for de Grom's name, you know what
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 5: I mean, Like when de Gram's on the mound, you
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 5: pretty much know you're gonna have to pay an extra
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 5: price to back him. So I don't think that's what
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 5: I would want to do. Seventy eight percent of tickets
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 5: ninety three percent of the cash on Texas. So the
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 5: money does seem to kind of be going that way.
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 5: But I think I might disagree a little bit. I
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 5: think maybe you could maybe grab Chicago on the run
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 5: line or something there and maybe they'll be able to
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 5: actually get it done.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 3: The under might be worth a consideration here.
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 5: I know I haven't had a good time with some
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 5: of these Texas unders recently, but seven and a half
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 5: being the total, oddsmakers are kind of telling you they
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 5: think it's gonna be a low scoring game, so they're
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 5: actually kind of respecting fetti here a little bit, which
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 5: is kind of strange.
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 3: I guess the money is.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 5: Kind of backing the over though, sixty five percent tickets
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 5: ninety one percent of the cash on the over. I
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 5: think the under might be the best way to actually
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 5: still play that game, though, given who's on the mound
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 5: and what the what the matchup numbers look like. I
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 5: guess we will see, though. Detroit is at the Cubs here.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 5: The Cubs are staying at home. They just beat Minnesota
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 5: over the weekend. Detroit will be traveling in from Anaheim,
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 5: so Detroit is having to travel from the Pacific Coast,
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 5: so they're at a bit of a travel disadvantage here,
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 5: so that's not great. They won the series against Anaheim,
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 5: but they lost the finale yesterday. It'll be an interesting
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 5: starting pitching matchup in this one too. Detroit used four
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 5: relief pitchers yesterday the Cubs used two. These bullpends are
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 5: somewhat evenly matched, in my opinion. The Cubs are on
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 5: to sixteenth now in bullpen. I think they're better than that,
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 5: but they're not pitching well recently. Detroit is right behind
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 5: them at seventeenth. Detroit is a better era though, but
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 5: I think they're both okay bullpens is what I would say,
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 5: maybe even I would go as far as to say
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 5: maybe they're even actually good.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 3: The Cubs have been the better offense.
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 5: Their ranked fourth, Detroit is twentieth, so the Cubs do
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 5: have an offensive edge here. And this looks like it's
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 5: gonna be a wind blowing out scenario again in Wrigley.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 5: The total basically tells you what's going on with the
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 5: win every time you have a Wrigley game. A lot
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 5: of win games in Wrigley, man, so.
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 3: We have a high total.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 5: Plus it doesn't really look like an elite pitching matchup here,
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 5: but when you look at what these pitchers have done
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 5: against these opposing offenses, I actually think this game might
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 5: be it might be worth considering playing this game under
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 5: when you start looking, and I know it sounds crazy
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 5: given that it's a wind blowing out game in Wrigley,
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 5: so the balls might carry. Looking at Jack Flaherty on
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 5: one side, who you know, I'm not a fan of him.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 5: If you watch my show, four point four to eighty array,
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 5: one point four to one whip is really not good.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 5: He's been a little bit better on the road four
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 5: point twenty five Roady Rail, though his opponent batting average
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 5: on the road is actually way worse, So I don't
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 5: know how his era is better on the road. So
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 5: he's not really that much better on the road. However,
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 5: he's been better recently, like he was good in the
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 5: month of June, and he's been pretty good so far
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 5: in July too, So Flaherty has figured something out, like
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 5: he is pitching better at this point than he has
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 5: been over.
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: The last couple of seasons.
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 5: Overall, numbers are still not really totally there, mostly just
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 5: because the walks are really the main issue is hit
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 5: rate is fine, his strike out rate is fairly high,
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 5: but his walk rate is still an issue. His walks
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 5: are too high, but recently it's been less of a
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 5: problem at least with the walks. Recently Flaherty against the
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 5: Cubs here.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 3: Hold on, he's.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 5: Actually been fairly good again the Cubs and seventy four
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 5: at bats to sixteen batting average allowed seven to fifteen ohps.
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 5: The ratio here is not very good though, twenty three
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 5: to ten strike out walk ratio, but the rest of
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 5: those numbers are fairly good. So he's held down this
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 5: pretty good Cub lineup, so Flaherty, he's in good form
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 5: and he has good matchup numbers here, so he might
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 5: actually pitch well and the Cubs are gonna have Jameson
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 5: tie On coming off the injured list here the DL.
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 5: And you know, I talk about this when you have
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 5: a veteran pitcher, which tie On is, when they come
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 5: back off the DL, I kind of like to lean
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 5: towards backing them because to me, it seems like most
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 5: people will shy away, and there are a lot of
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 5: professionals will say that you want to shy away and
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 5: wait and like see what this guy looks like. But
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 5: I think you might get some value on the pitcher
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 5: coming off the DL because nobody really wants them, because
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 5: it's like you don't know what to expect when it's
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 5: a veteran, you know what I mean. But I think
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 5: when it's a veteran, you kind of do know what
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 5: to expect. Like these guys have been through this before,
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 5: they're used to it. You know, although one problem with
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 5: tie On is he wasn't pitched well this year, so
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 5: that's one issue. Five point one to nine r rail
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 5: those whip isn't that bad at one point three, so
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 5: his era probably should be better than that. He was
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 5: pitching a little bit better at home though, four point
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 5: one to nine homey ra before.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 3: He went down.
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 5: He got injured in June and has not been back since.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 5: His hit rate is okay, his walk rate's a bit high.
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 5: He's allowed way too many home runs, so that's been
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 5: the main issue has been the home runs. He's alloted
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 5: a ton of home runs and his strike gout rate
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 5: is not great. But he's got to figure out the
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 5: home runs, which might be a problem here Max. Again,
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 5: it's a wind blowing out scenario. His flyball rate is
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 5: a bit high, so that might be bad for him
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 5: that the wind is blowing out, so that is something
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 5: to consider that that might affect him a bit here
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 5: Against Detroit. He has been good against them though in
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 5: the past, and forty four at bats one fifty nine
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 5: average allowed five to seventy six ops, so that's a
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 5: good sign that he's matched up well against Detroit. And
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 5: as far as how flyball can do some Jack Flaherty
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 5: as before I get off of the subject, he's also
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 5: allowed a lot of fly balls, but he actually hasn't
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 5: really allowed a lot of home runs this year. So
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 5: do with that info what you want. But we do
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 5: have two fly ball pitchers here, which might not be
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 5: good in a wind Wrigley game with the wind blowing out.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 5: Where's this game at? So obviously I'm not going to
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 5: give out a play on. This should be in the
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 5: inter league somewhere. Yeah, the money is actually backing the
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 5: over pretty strongly. It's eleven and a half is the total,
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 5: seventy three percent of tickets on the under, eighty two
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash on the over.
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 3: So the money is strongly back in the over. There.
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 5: I still kind of lean under though both pitchers have
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 5: the good matchup numbers.
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 3: Here. You might get tie On being a little.
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 5: Bit more like a little bit more undervalued, and he
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 5: might be in a bounced back spot and excited to
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 5: get back out there, you know what I mean, because
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 5: he's been injured.
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 3: For a while.
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 5: Money is also back in Detroit though, for whatever that's worth.
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 5: Sixty three percent of tickets on the Cubs ninety two
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash on Detroit.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 3: It basically a pickham price here. Do with that info
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 3: what you want.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 5: I don't really have a good read on the side
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 5: in this game, though, but my read on that game
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 5: was that the under made some sense there.
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 3: Hindian, what's up man? Thanks for hanging out? Doomsday?
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 5: Is that a movie? I'm assuming all right, I'll try
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 5: to remember to check that out.
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 3: Good morning to you. Thanks for hanging out man.
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 5: Check out Hindian on the Loser Cast tomorrow night, Man,
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 5: the show that we do on Tuesday night.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 3: All right, I'm gonna take a break.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 5: I'll be right back, and then I'm gonna talk about
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 5: the rest of these games here, and then there is
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 5: WNBA to break down as well, which I don't have
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 5: any plays remaining, so you've got my two plays for
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 5: the day already. But I'm still gonna analyze all these
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 5: games so that people will at least, you know, have
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 5: at least what my analysis is on these games.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 3: I'll be right back.
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 5: Inside, I want to kill myself. We were on own
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 5: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 3: It was just complete bullshit.
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 5: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 5: Sunday one and five.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 3: I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 5: I have never seen anything like this, Man with the
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 5: slump continuing. Two straight losses, not a good day at all.
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 5: Own four next have not had a good season. Man
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 5: with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues.
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 3: I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm gonna burn my
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 3: browins hat Man, I don't know what is going on
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 3: with the bruins arch hape?
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: Is that what it is?
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 3: I don't even know it's it's March ninth, I think
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 3: who even knows? Man, I don't know what day it
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 3: is anymore.
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 5: I'm not I don't even know what day is anymore. Man,
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 5: Back with you after the worst day that I could
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 5: possibly have, Back with you as I always am.
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 3: Until I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 3: yesterday it did not go well for me.
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 5: Own five the word month that I've ever had in
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 5: my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 3: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 5: Slump discontinuous, The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please,
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 5: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 5: other than potentially end it all. All right, get the
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 5: rest of these games done here? Oh thank you sir.
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 5: We don't have too many people in the chat on
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 5: this show, so I uh, we'll be able to do
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 5: the shout outs here. Let me get my headphones back
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 5: on here, all right, all right? Miami in Houston is
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 5: the next game here. Interesting pitching matchup here. Actually in
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 5: this one, Houston is staying at home. They just got
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 5: swept at home over the weekend by Baltimore, so Houston
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 5: maybe a bounce back spot for them here from Miami,
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 5: they could potentially be in a bounce back as well.
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 5: I mean they're they're riding a six game losing streak
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 5: right now coming in from Milwaukee, so both teams not
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 5: playing well at the moment.
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 3: Miami probably has the better bullpen here.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 5: They used three guys out of the bullpen yesterday Houston
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 5: only used two. But Miami has been the better bullpen.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 5: They ranked fifth in bullpen right now. I think they're
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 5: not quite that good, but they're pretty good Houston after
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 5: a rocky start to the season. No pun intended because
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 5: they're not Colorado, but they have gotten better at least
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 5: they're nineteenth in bullpen right now. Offensively, Miami is actually seventh,
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 5: although I still don't think they're that good. I think
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 5: some skewed numbers because of some of the ballparks they
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 5: played in on the road, but again, they don't play
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 5: in a hitter friendly park at home.
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 3: Though.
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 5: Houston's fifteenth in offense, but I don't think there's that
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 5: much of a gap between these two offenses. Jansen Junk
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 5: is pitching for Miami here. He was good at the
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 5: beginning of season, but I think he might have been
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 5: injured too, and then he came back, but he hasn't
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 5: really been very good recently. His overall numbers are kind
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 5: of mediocre at best at this point four point five
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 5: to seventy ra a one point three to one whip.
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 5: He is not as good on the road four point
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 5: nine to eight Roadie Ray, so that's not good. He
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 5: looks like he was okay in his last two outings.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 5: He give up only one run in each of them,
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 5: in five innings in each of them, but he walked
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 5: four guys last time out, which is maybe a little
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 5: concerning them. Maybe you could argue he's kind of coming
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 5: back into form here. I think it's a little bit
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 5: hard to gauge. He was struggling quite a bit in
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 5: a few starts prior to that. His hit rates a
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 5: little bit too high. Here is Walker rate's not really
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 5: that bad. His strike up rate is low. He does
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 5: not strike guys out. He is indeed a junk pitcher.
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 5: Against Houston, they really have not done much against him.
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 5: They have seventeen at bats against some one eighteen batting average,
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 5: although they do have two home runs off him, so
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 5: the ops is seven to twenty one.
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 3: Alvarezm.
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 5: Walker have the home runs there one strikeout in three
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 5: walks as well against junk from Houston, But overall he
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 5: does actually match up okay against Houston, and Houston is
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 5: going with a Runnel Blanco here is the name that
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 5: I have not heard for a while.
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 3: I believe he is mister pine tar. I believe.
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 5: I think he got suspended last year for pine tarring
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 5: his hand, which is illegal.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 3: He's dealing with illegal substances.
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 5: Man Blanco has also been injured since last year, so
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 5: he is going to be making his first start of
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 5: the season.
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 3: What are we gonna get out of him? Man, I
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 3: have no clue. You look at his career so far.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 5: He's thirty two years old, but he hadn't pitched in
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 5: Major League baseball until twenty twenty two, so he.
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 3: Had a late start to his career.
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 5: He's really only had one full season with Houston in
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 5: twenty twenty four, and he was actually good, So he
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 5: has decent stuff, although I think he's really really walk
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 5: heavy though. If you look at the overall numbers here,
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 5: he's had major walk issues. So that's kind of been
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 5: the with him, is that he's too wild. I have
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 5: no idea what we're going to get out of him here.
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 5: I looked at his minor league like rehab stuff, and
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 5: he actually did pitch pretty well in the minors, so
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 5: he does look like he's ready to come back here.
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 5: But again, I have no idea what we're going to
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 5: get out of him here. He's going up against Miami.
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 5: I think I'm getting like a sore throat here too.
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 5: This kind of sucks. Miami only has one hitter reserver
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 5: faced and Xavier Edwards is zero for three, often with
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 5: no strikeouts and no walks, so I don't know what
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 5: to take away from that. I think Blanco might be
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 5: the way to look in this one. Man, looking towards Houston,
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 5: they have a travel edge here staying at home. I
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 5: think I probably prefer him over Junk, but I think
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 5: the money is actually disagreeing with that.
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the money's strongly disagreeing with that.
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 5: Sixty three percent of tickets on Houston seventy two percent
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 5: of the cash on Miami.
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 3: That's a little strange to me.
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 5: Houston their favored about minus one thirty, although I think
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 5: if you play Houston, though, I think you should play
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 5: the first five only because I think Miami does have
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 5: a bullpen edge. The money's also backing the over in
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 5: this game, for whatever that's worth.
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 3: At nine. I don't really have a good read on
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 3: the total really.
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 5: I just think Blanco, I mean, based on what we've seen,
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 5: I think, and the unfamiliarity that he has against Miami,
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 5: which should be a little bit of an advantage, I
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 5: think he's probably the preference over Junk.
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 3: So I think Houston first five might be the lean there.
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 5: Washington at Colorado, oh man, I mean this could be
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 5: an over series.
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 5: You got two offenses that are pretty good, two bullpens
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 5: that are absolute trash. Washington hits really well on the road. Yeah,
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 5: I mean a lot of starting pitching that's not very good.
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 5: This I might wind up with an over in some
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 5: game in the series, although I'm not gonna do it
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 5: in this game here though, but this does look like
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 5: it's a series that kind of screams over.
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 3: And it's in.
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 5: Course field of course, which is also just something that
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 5: screams over generally. Colorado only used one guy out of
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 5: the bullpen yesterday, but they're not a good bullpen. Washington
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 5: used two, but the bull again, the bullpens are not good.
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 5: Colorado's twenty six Washington twenty eighth. These are bullpens who
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 5: want to fade or avoid Washington's third offensively in Colorado's fifth,
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 5: So these teams could definitely hit.
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 3: Andrew Alvarez is pitching for Washington, though, and I think
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 3: he's not that bad, even though his whip is pretty bad.
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 5: He's got a four point four ERA one point four
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 5: or five whip, but he's shown signs of actually having
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 5: some talent here, and he's been good on the road
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 5: two point four or five Roady Ray, so he pitches
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 5: better on the road.
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 3: He's definitely had some struggles. His last couple of starts
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 3: are not very good. Both of them at home. His
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 3: hit rate is right at one per inning.
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 5: Which is mediocre, but his walk rate is really the
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 5: main problem. His walk rate is way too high, but
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 5: his strikeout rate is actually fairly high, so he strikes
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 5: guys out. And the other thing that I'm noticing is
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 5: that he's more of a ground ball pitcher, so that's
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 5: actually good if he's going to be pitching a course field.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 5: You don't want to give up a lot of fly
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 5: balls in course field, and he does not allow a
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 5: lot of fly balls, so he might actually pitch okay
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 5: in course field here. So I think Alvarez might not
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 5: necessarily be like a total fade in this game. The
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 5: Rockies have never faced him before either, so he has
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 5: a little bit of an edge there where Again, if
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 5: you have a young pitcher that has some talent, sometimes
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 5: the offenses will struggle to figure him out. So Alvarez
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 5: might actually pitch okay here. Kyle Freeland is pitching for
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 5: the Rockies. That might not be so good. He's got
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 5: a seven point three six the RA one point five
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 5: to seven whip, obviously not good. Somehow, he's been better
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 5: at home better with a six point three to eight
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 5: home he RA I don't know how he's worse on
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 5: the road. I mean, that is not something you'd really expect.
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 5: He's been okay recently though, like this month, he is
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 5: an eighteen to one strike out walk ratio, so he's
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 5: given up a lot of runs. But it seems a
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 5: little bit misleading to me because his command numbers have
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 5: been there this month. He's been a little bit too hittable,
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 5: but I think he's actually not pitching too badly in
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 5: the current form that he's in.
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 3: He's been way too hittable overall, though his hit rate
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 3: is way too high. He doesn't walk guys.
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 5: So at least there's that low walk rate. Strike cut
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 5: rate is mediocre. But he is a flyball pitcher, and
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 5: that is not good in course field. So that makes
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 5: it make even less sense that he's actually pitched better
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 5: at home than on the road, because he's a lot
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 5: a lot of home runs, his flyball rate is too high. Obviously,
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 5: none of that looks good against Washington. He's actually been
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 5: good against Washington in twenty nine at bats. They have
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 5: zero extra race hits against him, seven to two strike
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 5: out walk ratio, one seventy two average, and three ninety
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 5: eight oh ps. Those are some really limited offensive numbers there.
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 5: So Freeland has actually pitched well against Colorado, so or
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 5: excuse against Washington this hm, I mean this game could
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 5: be a first five under. I mean I don't think
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 5: i'd want to risk that with my money. The total
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 5: obviously is high, it's at twelve basically.
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 3: I mean it's a course field game.
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 5: Money backing the over as well, it looks like seventy
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 5: four percent of tickets eighty seven percent of the cash
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 5: on the over. I don't know, man, man, I think
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 5: this game could be an under in the early innings though,
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 5: with those starting pitchers, So first five under I think
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 5: makes some sense. And I wouldn't really disagree with Washington
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 5: in this game their favorite on the road, of course.
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 5: I mean Colorado is considered to be the worst team
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 5: in baseball by the odds makers and the power ratings guys,
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 5: which you should listen to them when they do that,
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 5: when they tell you that eighty one percent of tickets,
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 5: ninety four percent of the cash on Washington their small
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 5: favorite minus one twenty, I wouldn't want to back either
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 5: team's bullpen, though, I think maybe a first five on
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 5: Washington might make some sense. I think Alvarez probably is
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 5: preferable to freelance. Maybe Washington in the first five is
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 5: a consideration in this game.
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 3: It's not a game I really want to touch, though.
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 5: But again, when the odds makers tell you something, you
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 5: should listen, you know, because they have a ton of
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 5: money at stake on him, So they're telling you Washington
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 5: is a better team at the very least, all right,
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 5: But everybody kind.
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 3: Of knows that anyway.
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 5: I mean, they have the better records, so it's not surprising.
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 5: But maybe it looks a little too easy to play
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 5: Washington there because the public is also on Washington.
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: You know.
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 5: I don't really love that when it looks too easy
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 5: and it's you know, small road favorite that the public
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 5: is also on. That worries me a little bit. A's
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 5: at Arizona. Arizona is staying at home and they just
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 5: beat Saint Louis. They're playing pretty well right now. The
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 5: A's have been playing really poorly. The A's broke I
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 5: think like a ten or eleven game losing streak, and
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 5: then they went right back to losing again yesterday. But
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 5: they had to face Foster Griffin yesterday. So I did
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 5: not think the A's were gonna win that game. Now
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 5: they're traveling to Arizona. Maybe that's good for the A's.
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 5: Just get out of home, go play in an actual stadium,
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 5: because the a's home stadium is not real. Man, That
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 5: motherfucker is not real. The AA's stadium. It's a Triple
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 5: A stadium that just allows a ton of home runs.
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 5: So this should at least be better in that respect.
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 5: Arizona has the way better bullpen. Arizona did use four
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 5: guys out of the bullpen. Has to be The A's
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 5: bullpen has been terrible. They use three guys out of
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 5: the bullpen. Arizona is ranked fourth right now, though I
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 5: still don't think they're that good, but they've been way
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 5: better than I thought they would be. The A's bullpen
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 5: is one of the worst. They're twenty seventh. They have
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 5: the worst bullpen e Ray though, really really bad stuff there.
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 5: Arizona has not been good offensively. They're twenty fifth. The
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 5: A's have been the better offense. They're thirteenth. Jeffrey Springs
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 5: is pitching this game for the A's.
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 3: He's not having a good season.
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 5: Kind of interesting because he's been okay like throughout his
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 5: career at different points but six point eightyra one point
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 5: four to whip, Yeah, that's not good. He is better
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 5: on the road, which makes sense, of course, because the
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 5: a Stadium is terrible to pitch in five point one
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 5: to nine road ray, you know, not as bad. He
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 5: does have a low opponent batting average on the road,
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 5: so he is better on the road for sure. Although
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 5: his last road start was not good against Detroit. His
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 5: walk rate has been very bad recently, four walks in
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 5: three of his last four starts each.
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 3: That is not good.
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 5: He's got a somewhat high hit rate, his walk rates
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 5: a little bit too high as well. Strikeout rate is
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 5: not great. But really one of his problems is home runs.
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 5: He allows a ton of home runs, so that also,
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 5: you know, you can tell that's also gonna make him
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 5: better on the road, you know, because he's away from
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 5: that very home run conducive ballpark there in the A's
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 5: Stadium in Sacramento. So maybe he will pitch better here
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 5: on the road, at least against Arizona.
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 3: They're ozer for ten off.
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 5: In lifetime, they only four hitters have ever faced him,
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 5: one strikeout, no walks, So he might actually pitch well here.
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 5: This might be a decent matchup for Springs, so I
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 5: think he might actually do okay.
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 3: Arizona's going with Mitch Bratt.
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 5: Who I believe is a rookie. He hasn't been that
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 5: good so far. He's only made two appearances. He's got
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 5: a six ERA one point sixty seven whip. Obviously that's
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 5: not good. But I have no idea what to expect
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 5: from him here man. They've limited him to three innings
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 5: in each of.
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 3: His first appearances. They were both on the road.
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 5: He was okay against Saint Louis and then he was
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 5: not that good against the Dodgers. But at first we
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 5: know the Dodgers have a good offense, so that's not
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 5: an easy task at all. They have a very good offense.
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 5: I have no idea what we're gonna get out of
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 5: Brat here man. It looks like you're not gonna get
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 5: that many innings out of him, and then it's gonna
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 5: go to the Diamondbacks bullpen. Of course, Bratt has never
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 5: been seen before by the A's because he is a rookie.
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 5: He's only made two appearances in his major league career,
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 5: so at least he has that advantage going for him
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 5: against the a's. I don't know if that's gonna be enough.
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 5: The money here is slightly backing the over at nine
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 5: here fifty eight percent of ticket sixty three percent of
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 5: the cash on the over. I don't know, man, I
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 5: mean I kind of lean first five under here in
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 5: a way. I mean, I think both pitchers.
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 3: Might actually be able to pitch okay. Here.
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 5: It seems really really dicey though, and it looks like
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 5: Arizona's kind of public it minus one forty something, eighty
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 5: seven percent of tickets, eighty nine percent of the.
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 3: Cash on them.
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 5: I don't know, man, I mean that leads me to
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 5: believe that maybe the there might be some smart money
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 5: coming in on the a's here at some point, because
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 5: it just looks like Arizona's a really public side. Springs
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 5: is obviously the more proven pitcher though, although he's not
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 5: pitching well right now, so I don't really want to
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 5: back him either. It's a tough tough game to figure out, man,
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 5: So that is obviously a pass for me.
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 3: Tigers pick them. What is that.
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 5: Verlander injury? What are we talking about here? Verlanders about
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 5: to retire?
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: Man?
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 3: I don't think that. I don't know what we're talking
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 3: about here.
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 5: The schoolball injury is what destroyed their morale. But he's
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 5: back and the Detroit's playing a lot better with him back,
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 5: So yeah, I would I would not play the Cobs
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 5: in that game. Yeah, I mean, I agree with the
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 5: under was obviously my recommendation on that game. But it's
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 5: also really really difficult to actually want to do that
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 5: because it's a wind blowing out game and both pictures
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 5: are pretty home run, are pretty fly ball heavy. So
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 5: I I don't love it, man, I really don't. I
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 5: disagree with you about the morale situation though the Verlander
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 5: doesn't matter anymore, like he's effectively retired, doesn't matter.
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 3: School Bowl.
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 5: Getting injured is what is what wrecked their morale, and
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 5: he's back now, all right?
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 3: Cincinnati at Seattle. Seattle is staying at home.
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 5: What else is new? All these teams staying at home today?
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 5: They just beat San Francisco over the weekend. Cincinnati is
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 5: traveling from Colorado. They won in Colorado over the weekend,
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 5: coming down from elevation, you know, not exactly the easiest
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 5: trip to make.
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 3: So there is a travel edge for Seattle. Here.
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 5: Seattle has the better bullpen. Here, Seattle used three guys yesterday.
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 5: It doesn't really matter. Settle Cincinnati Excus also used three.
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 5: Seattle's definitely the better bullpen. They ranked thirteenth. I think
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 5: they're better than that. Cincinnati is twenty fifth. They're not
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 5: a good bullpen. They're not one of the absolute worst,
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 5: but they're not good. Seattle offensively has really struggled. They're
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 5: at twenty seventh, tie with the Mets right now, but
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 5: I still don't think they're actually that bad.
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 3: And Cincinnati's nineteenth.
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 5: I don't know, man, man, I think Seattle might have
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 5: the better bats in their lineup, though this is a
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 5: pitcher friendly ballpark. Though Andrew Rabbit his pitcher for Cincinnati,
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 5: he's not been as good this year as he has
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 5: been in the past. Man, He's putting way too many
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 5: guys on base. Four point one one ERA is not bad,
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 5: one point four to two whip is not good, though
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 5: he's been better on the road three point two to
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 5: one Roady Ray. So getting him away from Great American Ballpark,
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 5: which is a hitter friendly ballpark, has helped him this year.
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 3: So maybe he'll pitch better in Seattle here.
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 5: I don't really know if I could trust him, though
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 5: his walk rate has been a real problem recently and
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 5: throughout the season. He's not been that hittable, but his
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 5: walk rate is really really bad. Strike out rate not
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 5: really that high either, but he's a pitch to contact
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 5: type of pitcher, but the walks have been a major
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 5: major issue against Seattle.
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 3: They've hit him pretty well. They only have thirteen at.
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 5: Bats though they only five guys who have faced him.
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 5: They have a three eighty five batting average against him
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 5: one of fourteen twenty nine ops two to one strike
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 5: a walk ratio, So Seattle has hit Abbot pretty well
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 5: in that small sample size that they've seen him before.
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 5: George Kirby is pitching for the Mariners. I think he's
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 5: the more trustworthy of the two starters here. He's had
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 5: some issues as well, but his issues are that he's
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 5: too hitable. He's got a three point seven to six ERA,
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 5: one point three to two whip is not really that
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 5: good though, and I don't really know why, but his
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 5: the ray is worse at home, even though it's a
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 5: more pitcher friendly park four point two toy six homey RA.
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 5: He's a lot more home runs at home of those
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 5: at batting average is lower at home, so he hasn't
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 5: been as hittable generally at home. It's it's weird, man.
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 5: He's a tough guy to figure out. He's pitching well recently, though,
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 5: he's strung together a few good starts in a row,
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 5: so he looks like he's in pretty good form right now.
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 5: Really for over a month he's been good, but his
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 5: hit rate is too high. He's definitely been too hittable.
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 5: Doesn't walk guys though his walk rates low. His strikeout
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 5: rate is not really that high, but that's not really
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 5: his thing. He doesn't really strike guys out. Kirby against
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 5: Cincinnati has been okay in fifty at bats eighteen to
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 5: zero strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 3: That's pretty good.
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 5: To sixty batting average, six eighty ops allowed, that's not
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 5: bad either. I mean, it seems maybe too obvious, but
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 5: I think Seattle is probably the way to lean in
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 5: this one of the I think the money doesn't agree
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 5: with me on it.
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 3: No, it looks like maybe it does.
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 5: Other in about minus one forty something, seventy one percent
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 5: of the tickets eighty seven percent of the cash on them,
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 5: I think that's.
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 3: Probably the way to go.
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 5: I mean, I think you have the better starting pitcher
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 5: with the better matchup numbers, and you have the better
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 5: bullpen and the better travel scenario for Seattle. I think
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 5: that's what I would do if I was gonna play
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 5: that game, is probably play Seattle. The money is back
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 5: in the under. It looks like too it's seven and
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 5: a half. I don't know if I would really do that.
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 5: I mean, Abbott looks not totally trustworthy there, and I
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 5: don't trust Cincinnati's bullpen obviously, So if you're gonna play
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 5: the under at all, I think you should limit it
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 5: to the first five. But again, what do I know.
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 5: I just know Cincinnati's bullpen is not good. But yeah,
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 5: I think Seattle is probably the lean there full game,
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 5: and you know you might be able to get that
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 5: in the minus one forties, which is not too bad
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 5: of her price. Saint Louis at Anaheim is the ESPN
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 5: night game, the late ESPN.
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 3: It's an ESPN doubleheader.
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 5: I mean, Dodgers Phillies makes sense for an ESPN game.
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 5: Do you think anybody's gonna really stay awake and watch
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 5: Saint Louis and anaheimo? Though, of course that's a seven
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 5: pm game on the Pacific coast.
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 3: But nobody's gonna watch that game.
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 1: Me.
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 5: Come on, I don't even think fans of those teams
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 5: want to watch that game. This is this is not
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 5: a good game. Anaheim is staying at home.
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 3: They did just.
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 5: Break a four game losing streak, so I think that's
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 5: a positive. When you break a losing streak, your momentum,
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 5: you end that losing momentum, you know, So I think
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 5: that's decent for Anaheim. Saint Louis is having to travel
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 5: in from Arizona, which isn't really too bad of a
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 5: trip either. They lost in Arizona, so I don't really
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 5: think it's that bad of a spot for either team.
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 5: Anaheim is a bad bullpen. They used four guys out
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 5: of the bullpen yesterday. Saint Louis used four. Saint Louis
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 5: is not great, but I think Anaheim is significantly worse.
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 5: Although you see here Saint Louis twenty first, Anaheim twenty
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 5: second and whip. But Saint Louis significantly better in the era.
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 5: So I do think they're the noticeably better, for lack
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 5: of a better term, the noticeably better.
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 3: Notably better.
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 5: I guess bullpen we noticed it as well, though Saint
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 5: louis Is twenty first off, he tied with the Red
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 5: Sox and Anaheim's twenty third, so these teams have kind
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 5: of struggled on the offensive side of things. Kyle Lay,
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 5: he is pitching for Saint Louis here three point seven
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 5: to three ERA not too bad, one point four to
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 5: one whip is not good, though he's not been good
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 5: on the road four point six y nine road ERA,
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 5: so he pitches better at home in that pitcher friendly
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 5: park in Saint Louis. He's actually been a little bit
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 5: better recently, though he's allowed one or fewer earned runs
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 5: in four starts in a row.
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 3: That one of them was a short.
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 5: Outing and the other ones were exactly five and one
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 5: of them was six and a third. Actually, but he
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 5: looks like he's in better form right now, believe it
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 5: or not, So maybe Lay he is actually kind of
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 5: turning this around a little bit.
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 3: But he's still his overall numbers, he's too hit a bule.
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 5: His walk rate is also too high, strikeout rate is
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 5: not particularly high, so I still don't think he's that good.
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 5: But he is pitching better now than he was before,
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 5: so at least there's that and Anaheim only has nine
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 5: at bats against him in their zero for nine with
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 5: two strikeouts and no walks, so he's unfamiliar to them
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 5: in a way small sample size, but they also have
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 5: not really done anything against him, so or they literally
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 5: have not done anything against him. Maybe lay he actually
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 5: will pitch well here. Jose Soriano was pitching for Anaheim.
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 5: He's having a pretty good season overall three point four
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 5: to nine ERA, one point two to nine WHIP. He
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 5: had a really good stretch early in the season, then
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 5: he was bad at first stretch, and now he's pitching
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 5: better again recently. But what we know about him is
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 5: he's not really as good at home three point nine
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 5: to nine HOMI area this year. That's not really that
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 5: bad last year. His splits were more extreme last year,
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 5: where he was worse at home. This year looks like
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 5: he's maybe a little bit better at home than he
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 5: was last year.
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 3: He's pitching alright recently.
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 5: His last three starts of all been okay, but Anaheim
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 5: has lost all three. Maybe not really entirely his fault,
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 5: but he's not really striking guys out recently, So that's
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 5: kind of a concern when you have a guy who
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 5: I think is considered to be a strikeout pitcher. Yeah,
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 5: he has a pretty high strike up rate on the
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 5: and he's got a pretty low hit rate, which obviously
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 5: means his problem is the walks. His walk rate is
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 5: way too high, so that is his main issue is
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 5: the walks. Against Saint Louis, maybe it'll be an easier
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 5: opponent for him to go up against here. They really
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 5: don't have much experience against him. They only have three
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 5: guys who have faced him five at bats two hundred
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 5: average eight to twenty nine ohps, but it's a small sample.
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 3: Two walks, three strikeouts.
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 5: I think a first five under actually might make the
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 5: most sense in this game. The totals high for the
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 5: full game though, at nine. The money is also backing
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 5: the over sixty four percent of tickets ninety one percent
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 5: of the cash on the over. I would not really
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 5: want to do it, but it could be maybe like
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 5: a sneaky first five under where people are not really
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 5: going to pay that much attention to these two pitchers,
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 5: but they look like they.
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 3: Might have an okay match up here.
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 5: The money's also packing Saint Louis with Leahy on the
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 5: mound sixty eight percent of tickets seventy six percent of
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 5: the cash on them, and time is favored at around
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 5: minus one twenty. But the money looks like it's grabbing.
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 5: Saint Louis is the underdog. I mean, I guess I
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 5: could see the argument for it, Like lay, he looks
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 5: like he's actually in better form right now than Soriano.
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 5: Maybe that's the argument, or the argument is like we're
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 5: getting Saint Louis is an underdog here, but it kind
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 5: of looks too easy right to play Saint Louis is
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 5: an underdog there because oh, the team with the better
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 5: record is an underdog.
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 5: I don't want anything to do with it though, And
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 5: that's that's the uh the baseball breakdown here, I got
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 5: nothing really additional on any of that.
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 3: WNBA.
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 5: I don't know how I didn't bring up the scheduled
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 5: tab here. We have four WNBA games here because of
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 5: a rescheduled game because of New York's playing issues. Yes, sir,
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 5: dirty sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out. I'm not
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 5: gonna give out a playing the WNBA here, but we
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 5: do have a peacock NBC Sports game at eight, which
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 5: is Vegas in Toronto, Vegas obviously is the better of
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 5: these two teams here. They're one of the top teams
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 5: in the league. Vegas is coming off an embarrassing loss
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 5: at home to Indiana or Indiana beat them by thirty
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 5: four points, so Vegas has had some real bad games
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 5: at home this year. Man might be good for them
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 5: to just go out on the road. And they're very
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 5: rested here. They've been off for eight days or seven
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 5: days here, so they last played on Sunday, the twelfth,
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 5: So we have a very rested, probably angry Vegas team
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 5: starting a road trip. It should be a focused spot
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 5: as well, off just a disgusting loss. I mean, I
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 5: know it's Indiana, but in Indiana's a decent team, but
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 5: still I think Vegas is going to show up in
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 5: this one. Now Toronto they're off a pretty bad loss
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 5: too to Atlanta where they give them a ton of points,
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 5: so that's not good either. Both teams are coming off
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 5: really bad defensive showings. Toronto is staying at home, but
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 5: they last played on Friday, so they're less rested here.
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 5: Of course, they're not going to overlook Vegas though, so
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 5: I think both teams show up for this and if
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 5: that's the case, then maybe you want to look towards
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 5: Vegas because they're the better team, they're more rested, but
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 5: you're gonna have to pay for it. Obviously, the oddsmakers
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 5: know that they're rested, so they're gonna jack up the
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 5: price on Vegas because they're rested. So you have to
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 5: lay ten and a half with them right now, or
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 5: eleven seventy per tickets, seventy three percent of the cash
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 5: on them. I I don't want to do it. I
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 5: might slightly lean that way, but you know, just because
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 5: I tend to lean towards the better team when you
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 5: think both teams are gonna be focused. But that price
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 5: looks a bit much to me. And I was thinking
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 5: maybe the under would make sense here because both teams
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 5: are coming off horrendous defensive performances where you would think
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 5: that they would focus more on defense here.
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 3: But the money's backing the over in this one.
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 5: And the total is really high at one two and
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 5: a half, and that's because Toronto is not a good defense.
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, I don't want I don't want
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 3: to mess with it.
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 5: I'll tell you that next game up is the rescheduled game,
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 5: which is supposed to happen on I don't know, Thursday
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 5: or whatever, Friday, whatever, it was, something happened with New
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 5: York's plane and they couldn't get to Dallas. So that
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 5: sucks for New York because now they have to play
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 5: today instead.
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 3: I think they did have yesterday off.
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 5: I think it sucks more for Dallas because I think
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 5: Dallas is actually on a back to back here. The
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 5: Liberty played on Saturday, and they're playing some pretty bad
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 5: basketball right now. They've lost every game on this road
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 5: trip so far. They got blown out by Indiana on
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 5: the last game, and they were good in the first
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 5: half of that game and then they completely fell apart
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 5: in the second half. Bad performance from New York. New
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 5: York is not as bad as the record looks. They
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 5: look like a five hundred team right now. Clearly that
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 5: is not the case. But the West is better than
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 5: the East Man so Dallas is in the better conference here.
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 5: But yes, the Liberty are going to face Dallas here
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 5: where they were supposed to.
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 3: Play that game on Thursday.
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 5: They had the playing issues and now they're playing it
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 5: today instead. Should be a spot where the Liberty are
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 5: going to show up. Man.
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, you don't want to go own form
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 3: road trip.
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 5: You just lost pretty badly to Indiana on national TV.
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 5: So I think the Liberty are gonna show up for Dallas.
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 5: They played yesterday and they beat LA yesterday.
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 3: Dallas is staying.
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 5: At home, but they're on a back to back, so
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 5: they have a rest disadvantage. Dallas has been the way
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 5: hotter team. Dallas has won whatever this is, six straight games.
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 5: So I think the public is only going to come
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 5: in one way on this, and they're gonna come in
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 5: on Dallas.
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 3: And Dallas has been good at home.
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 5: The Liberty have not really been that good on the road.
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 5: I think the Liberty are in the worst conference. All
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 5: of that, But then you're gonna look at this spread
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 5: and be like, well, what the fuck is happening here?
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 5: Because the Liberty are favored by three and a half,
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 5: were actually up to four and a half. Now the
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 5: money is also backing them fifty six percent taket sixty
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 5: one percent of the cash on New York.
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 3: Now, there are two things going on here. One is
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 3: that the Liberty.
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 5: Are not as bad as their record looks so and
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 5: they might actually be the better team. So I actually
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 5: think the Liberty probably should be like the price should
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 5: probably be around a Hicckham price here and maybe maybe
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 5: at most like New York, maybe a slight underdog here.
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 5: But obviously, what I'm telling you is that there's an
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 5: injury on the Dallas side, and it is Becker's their
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 5: best player. She is injured. She got injured in the
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 5: LA game. This is it right here. I don't know
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 5: what happened to her. They're not even disclosing what her
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 5: injury is, but you know what that means. It means
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 5: it's an injured player spot for Dallas. And you know
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 5: I talk about this, when a team's star player goes down,
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 5: I think the team steps up their game in the
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 5: next game in their absence because they know they have to.
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 3: So you get a bigger effort out of that team,
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 3: and you.
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 5: Get more value on the number right because the number
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 5: has to shift. So now all of a sudden, New
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 5: York is minus four and a half because of the
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 5: Beckers injury here. So I think maybe that's a bit
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 5: of an overreaction in the line. So I can't play
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 5: this game because if that injury didn't happen, I would
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 5: say New York is going to be the right side
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 5: here because the public is gonna want nothing to do
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 5: with New York. There's still not going to want anything
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 5: to do with New York. They're not gonna eight points
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 5: on the road with New York here, with the way
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 5: that they've been playing recently and with what their record
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 5: looks like. But the oddsmakers are telling you that with
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 5: Dallas down their best player, the Liberty are the better team,
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 5: and I think I probably do have to agree with that.
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 5: I think if I was gonna play this game, I
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 5: think I would probably still play New York. But I
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 5: don't want to go against an injured player. Theory spotman,
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 5: I don't want to land number that I know is
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 5: like not really giving you any values. So those are
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 5: my thoughts on that game. But you know it would
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 5: have been in consideration for me maybe if there was
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 5: no injury there and you were getting New York around
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 5: a Pickham price, I would have been considering it. Washington
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 5: and Golden State, the question with this game is isn't.
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 3: Going to be a zigzag of any kind?
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 5: Because Golden State just beat Washington at home by five,
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 5: and I gave out a win on Washington on the show,
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 5: and that when Washington covered and if you look at
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 5: what happened in that game.
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 3: I don't know about the zigzag component, because.
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 5: Usually what I would say is that, well, when you
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 5: have a good team like Golden State and they get
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 5: pushed to the wire by Washington, Washington could have won
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 5: that game.
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 3: Dude, they're winning in the fourth quarter.
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 5: And when that happens, a lot of times that team
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 5: that was the home favorite that almost lost, they'll like
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 5: get scared back into focus, you know what I mean.
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 5: So the zigzag component of this looks like, maybe you
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 5: want to look towards Golden State in this game, And
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 5: of course we can explain what happened in that game.
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 3: Golden State was in a bad spot.
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 5: They were in a return home spot from a long
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 5: road trip and coming off beating Indiana. So I thought
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 5: it was a bad spot, which is why I liked
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 5: Washington there. They beat Washington on the road during that
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 5: road trip too, so it was a quick revenge spot
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 5: for Washington or possibly an overlook spot for Golden State.
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 5: But now Golden State's at home for their second game,
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 5: and usually that's a better spot for a team. After
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 5: they get stuff done at home, they get that stuff
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 5: out of the way. Maybe they had a bad game
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 5: in that first game, a lot of times they're gonna
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 5: play better in that next game, and maybe because Washington
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 5: gave them a scare, they're not going to overlook them
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 5: this time. Washington after that big performance might not have
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 5: a ton left in the tank after that. The problem
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 5: that I have with it is usually if I want
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 5: to zig zag and I'm gonna try to look for
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 5: like some outliers in here, and.
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 3: There really weren't.
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 5: Like Golden State had six more made three pointers in
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 5: the game, so they were plus eighteen from three point range,
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 5: there were plus five from the free throw line, and
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 5: they still only won the game by five. Like Washington
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 5: should have won this game, Dude, I'm pissed that the
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 5: money line didn't hit in this game. Washington was winning
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 5: more than fifty percent of the game. They won the
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 5: rebound battle by eleven, they lost the turnover battle, and
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 5: still were in a position to win that game. I
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 5: think that's actually a bad sign for Golden State that
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 5: they couldn't win the rebound battle and they won the
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 5: three point battle and the free throw battle by a lot,
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 5: which are things that are probably gonna regress a little bit,
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 5: and they still only won the game by five, So
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 5: that would definitely be a concern for me with Golden
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 5: State coming into this and that game.
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 3: By the way, the line is nine and a half
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 3: in that one.
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 5: I think the line in this one's about eight and
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 5: a half now, so you're getting a little bit more
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 5: value on this if you do like Golden State, I
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 5: would still lean that way. I still think it is
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 5: a zigzag spot where Golden State will be more settled
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 5: and they'll take.
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 3: Washington more seriously.
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 5: This time, Washington is now getting the public money. It
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 5: looks like sixty percent of the tickets but fifty seven
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash on Washington. So when I gave
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 5: up or is using a Golden State, the money is
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 5: coming in a Golden State. When I give out that
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 5: play on Washington two days ago or whatever, the market
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 5: read was completely different, right, Like Golden State was the
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 5: public side, that's where the tickets were coming in, and
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 5: I was like, all right, we're gonna fade the public
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 5: the money. The smart money looked like it was on
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 5: Washington in that one. Now in this game, it looks
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 5: like it's completely flipped the other way. And if you
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 5: do like Golden State, you get one extra point of
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 5: value at least at they eight and a half. That's
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 5: the way I would lean. I would lay the eight
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 5: and a half in that one, but I really don't
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 5: want to do it. I mean, there were some some
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 5: red flags in that previous game with Golden State there,
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 5: although they're a good team, but I think Washington is
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 5: just kind of an underrated team. I think that's really
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 5: what's going on there. Right By the way, it's also
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 5: really low total. If you remember I talked about the
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 5: total in that previous game. One forty five and a
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 5: half is ridiculous, and that was part of the reason
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 5: why I liked taking a huge underdog, because every point
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 5: is worth more when it's expected to be a low
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 5: scoring game.
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 3: You know.
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 5: I like playing those underdogs that are defense defensive minded
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 5: and it's supposed to be a lower scoring, like defensive battle,
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 5: which is the case with these two teams, because I
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 5: think you're just getting so much more value with all
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 5: those points, you.
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 3: Know what I mean.
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 5: If it's gonna be low scoring both teams playing defense,
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 5: that means the underdog has way more potential to hang
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 5: around in the game. All right, And then we have
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 5: a USA Network game at ten pm Minnesota at Seattle. God, Minnesota,
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 5: they're the best team in the league, and they still
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 5: don't have their best player, Collie, who hasn't played at.
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 3: All the entire season. Oh my god.
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 5: If Minnesota doesn't win the championship this year, something is
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 5: seriously wrong. Assuming that Collier is going to come back
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 5: at some point and with enough time to get settled
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 5: back in and get that chemistry back and whatever. Now
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 5: Minnesota's on a roll. They've won five games in a row.
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 5: They're coming off some easy wins here, they're starting road trip.
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 5: I don't think it's a bad spot for them, so
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 5: it looks like it should be maybe even a focus
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 5: spot for them. It's a road trip where they're only
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 5: going to Seattle, so like that's the only thing they
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 5: have to focus on here, and they're coming off an
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 5: easy win over Portland at home in their last game.
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 5: Seattle isn't a bad spot. Seattle's returning home from a
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 5: road trip. They were on the road since July sixth,
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 5: so they've been on the road for two weeks and
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 5: now they're returning home. They went all the way to
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 5: the East Coast for a significant portion of that road trip,
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 5: and to finish the road trip, they played a really
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 5: close game against Indiana in Indiana. They took Indiana right
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 5: to the wire and Caitlyn Clark broke a tie with
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 5: like twenty seconds left with a three pointer in that one,
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 5: which wasn't what the final The final score was a
• 1:46:50
  Speaker 5: three point loss, but there were some free throws that
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 5: happened at the end of that game or whatever.
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 3: But still that was a brutal way for Seattle to lose.
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 5: The last game of the road trip, they almost beat
• 1:46:59
  Speaker 5: Indian and now on top of that, they're returning home
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 5: from that long road trip.
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 3: This is a massive negative spot for Seattle. Dude.
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 5: They might still get up because they're tried to, at
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 5: least because it is Minnesota and they do have one extra.
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 3: Day of rest, but this is just bad. It is bad.
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 5: Now both teams are having to travel to the West Coast,
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 5: and I do talk about that. When you have teams
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 5: having to readjust or adjust to the Pacific time zone
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 5: for the first time and it's a late game like that,
• 1:47:25
  Speaker 5: it's gonna mess with their biological clocks because it's gonna
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 5: be playing like midnight, you know, Eastern time whatever, and
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 5: they're used to either Eastern or Central.
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 3: Either way though.
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 5: I mean, I think, if you're gonna play this game,
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 5: I think Minnesota has to be the right side here
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 5: in this one. And I almost put this on my card, Like,
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 5: if I was gonna play any WNBA game today, I
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 5: would lay it with Minnesota.
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 3: That's what I would do. They're minus ten, basically nine
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 3: and a half. Should I do? I'm tempted to do it, man,
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 3: I think I don't really quite want to do it.
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 3: I mean, laying these.
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 5: Huge road favorites is not exactly in my repertoire. But
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 5: I think it's the right side, and the money does
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 5: seem to agree with it, fifty six percent of tickets
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 5: and seventy five percent of.
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 3: The cash on them.
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 5: I'll leave it alone, but I'm tempted if again, if
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 5: I was gonna play any WNBA game today.
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 3: That's what I would do. I would lay the points
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 3: with Minnesota on that one. All right.
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 5: That's it, man, two plays today. They're both in the
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 5: somewhat earlier baseball games. It's all evening baseball today, though,
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 5: So we're gonna be on the first five under in
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 5: twins Indians Twindians Hindian. What that's a You can find
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 5: a four out there. I think hopefully you can find
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 5: it a reasonable price out there. I prefer the four
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 5: over the three and a half. Obviously, even up to
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 5: about minus one twenty minus one twenty five.
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 3: You gotta lay some juice in some of these baseball players.
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 5: I know my first fives have been awful recently, but
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 5: let's get back on track, man.
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 3: I like that one.
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 5: And then we also have the Pittsburgh Pirates on the
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 5: money line, which I know we're gonna be back in
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 5: the less sort of the bullpens here, but you can
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 5: go back and watch my analysis on it. We're fading
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 5: the Yankees and what I think is an atrocious spot
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 5: for the Yankees, and the Yankees use their entire bullpen
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 5: over the two games yesterday. So we're gonna play Pittsburgh
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 5: a better situation, better starting pitcher, better rest, better pizza.
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 5: Papa John's, let's do it better ingredients, better pizza. I
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 5: don't even agree with that. I don't think Papa John's
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 5: is very good. They're overrated.
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 5: People get mad at me because I think out of
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 5: the main like Pizza change, I think Dominoes is the
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 5: better one. People get mad at me. I'm like, dude,
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 5: I remember when Dominoes was like cardboard.
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 3: It was awful. And then they had that ad campaign
• 1:49:38
  Speaker 3: which was like, yes, we do suck. We know our
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 3: pizza sucks.
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 5: And then then that was an awesome ad campaign. And
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 5: then they changed their pizza and they made it better.
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 5: So I appreciated that, and they did actually make it better.
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 5: So that's what I got. It was a staple of
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 5: my college though, Like what do you want? We were
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 5: doing back in the day? Man, back in college. I'm old,
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 5: so we were doing the five five five was the
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 5: thing from Dominoes back in the day. You get three
• 1:50:03
  Speaker 5: one topping medium pizzas for fifteen bucks. That's what it was. Man,
• 1:50:07
  Speaker 5: those are the days back then. Get a pretty good
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 5: amount of pizza for not much money the college days.
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 3: That's gonna do it.
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 5: Learn it toad on Twitter, learn it tone on Instagram,
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 5: Like subscribe to the channel here. We're getting some monetization
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 5: going here on the channel. You know, you can become
• 1:50:23
  Speaker 5: a member if you want. But I still haven't really
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 5: decided what content I really want to do for that.
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 5: People can let me know. I don't have enough subscribers yet,
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 5: but we'll see. We're on Audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker check
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 5: that out as well. Covered in you because my yuke
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 5: channel on YouTube, I gotta put a couple of the
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 5: most recent ones I did up there. My voice is
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 5: still not holding up, dude, So I apologize for all
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 5: the Patreons, patreon dot com, sash learn to Toad.
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 3: I'm trying.
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna try to get to these some of these requests, man,
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 5: It's just some of them are really not easy for
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 5: my voice. And I mean, I know maybe people don't
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 5: care that much. I mean, I care about what I'm
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 5: putting out, so you know, at least to that degree.
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 5: But I just can't even do it right now. I
• 1:51:03
  Speaker 5: don't know what's gonna happen. Gotta fix my voice. Doing
• 1:51:08
  Speaker 5: this show doesn't help. And Loser cast every Tuesday night.
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 5: Hindian was in the chat. He's on the show, so
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 5: you can check that out tomorrow night. I don't think
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 5: I have a good Loser pick for this week, either,
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 5: so I gotta figure something out. I'm sure there was
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 5: something that happened. Oh we we we go with Argentine May.
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 3: Maybe I'll do something related to that. I don't know.
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 5: And then The Giants Chief Spot Podcast, New York giants
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 5: should be back at some point. I know Ben's got
• 1:51:38
  Speaker 5: a lot of stuff going on in his life, so
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 5: you know, being a husband and father and probably employed,
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 5: which I don't know what that would be like.
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 3: That's gonna do it. Peace everybody, but.
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 1: Don't you go quiet. Don't you play it from the flow.
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 2: Your name still means something to somebody for a show.
• 1:51:59
  Speaker 2: Put the glass down, baby, look at me, nic.
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on nothing nice now, hold on, hold on.
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 1: Let me for you.
• 1:52:23
  Speaker 4: That blo bite.
• 1:52:26
  Speaker 1: Hot, but it don't get the crown. Hold on, hold
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 1: on and stay with me now