Latest / The Fourcast / Iran war latest: is there any hope for Trump’s peace talks?

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Iran war latest: is there any hope for Trump’s peace talks? · The Fourcast

0:00
Five day deadline ends on Friday.
0:01
That's when the Marines are due into the Persian Gulf and the
0:05
attention of many Iranian observers are is on that.
0:08
There is so far quite a bit of skepticism regarding this idea
0:12
that this is really a a true and genuine diplomatic gambit.
0:16
It really looks like Iran is digging in, if we.
0:18
Do this right. One of the goals of this is that
0:20
we have a 457 year respite from these kind of attacks.
0:25
He said the worst thing that could happen at the moment is
0:28
Trump pulling out early, doing a, a Taco, you know, playing
0:31
chicken, blinking first. Do you think that's what he's
0:34
done? Hello and welcome again to the
0:39
forecast. And again, from the bunker of
0:42
the King David Hotel in Jerusalem.
0:44
The reason being that we've had alarms again overnight.
0:47
And we don't want to break off the podcast in the middle of it
0:50
to move somewhere safe. So we decided to play it safe
0:53
and start in the bunker itself, which is a pleasant enough place
0:55
to be. Again, big developments
0:59
overnight. Of course, President Trump
1:01
saying that, you know, his people have been in serious
1:04
negotiations with the Iranians, although he wouldn't tell us
1:07
with who exactly. And then the Iranians or
1:10
certainly one Iranian, that's the the the speaker of the
1:12
parliament says that's fake news and it's fake news designed to
1:15
manipulate the market. So what is actually going on and
1:19
is this pause from the Americans, is five day pause
1:22
going to lead anywhere? And by the way, while they've
1:25
been pausing their bombardment supposedly and the other sides
1:29
have been firing at each other. So on one level, it's peace in
1:33
our time, certainly for Donald Trump or the beginnings of it.
1:35
And then it's not so much peace in our time for everyone else.
1:38
So let's get a state of the war today.
1:41
I'm joined by US, former US Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery.
1:45
He's in San Francisco, he knows a lot about the the, the
1:49
military state of affairs, but also particularly about the
1:51
Strait of Hormuz. And of course, Trump said
1:54
yesterday that would be opened up immediately.
1:56
There's no sign of that happening so far.
1:58
And also from Saint Andrews University, I'm joined by senior
2:02
lecturer Dr. Sadhyush Ranjiba Demi, an expert on Iranian
2:06
affairs. Welcome to you both.
2:09
Let me start with you, Mark, if I may.
2:11
When we spoke a few days ago, you said the worst thing that
2:13
could happen at the moment is Trump pulling out early, doing
2:17
a, a Taco, you know, playing chicken, blinking first.
2:20
Do you think that's what he's done?
2:21
No. Not yet.
2:23
I think what he's done right now is he, I think probably
2:26
inappropriately said we're going to strike power plants
2:30
throughout Iran, which there's nothing wrong with striking a
2:32
power facility that supports a military base.
2:35
I, you know, that's a known, you know, lawful combatant maneuver.
2:39
You don't randomly take down a country's power grid.
2:43
We've, we have lodged complaints against Russia doing that
2:46
against Ukraine for, you know, four years, so.
2:49
It could have been the war crime, right?
2:51
Depending what you do, it could be, I mean, if you cut off the
2:53
only source of power to hospitals and things like that,
2:56
you could be getting yourself in some trouble.
2:58
What I'll tell you though, is what I understand is he's backed
3:02
off of that good and he's continuing the air campaign
3:06
alongside Israel, you know, to a trite the missile programs,
3:10
drone programs, nuclear program, maritime programs, which as I
3:13
told you, he needs to do whether or not you should have started
3:16
this war at the time they started it.
3:18
The one thing you can't do is stop halfway through and leave
3:23
the IRGC in a, in a reasonable, in a position for which they
3:26
continue to be the force for evil that they've been
3:29
throughout the for the in the Middle East for the last 47
3:32
years. So I hope what's happening is
3:35
we're continuing that military campaign for the next 5 or 6
3:37
days and this rhetoric of his just kind of blows about power
3:41
plants just goes away. Saviour Schwen, the Iranians say
3:45
that what Trump said yesterday was fake news to manipulate the
3:50
markets. I think, he added.
3:51
The speaker of the House, the speaker of the parliament, are
3:54
they right? Was it fake news?
3:56
Well, Iranians are quite diffident and also both
4:00
observers and the political scene.
4:02
They think that this is Trump all over again talking up
4:06
diplomacy before some form of a heavy military offensive.
4:11
They see Deja Vu of June 2025 and of course the days preceding
4:17
the start of this campaign on the 28th of February.
4:20
And, and in both times, there were grandiose diplomatic claims
4:23
by Trump. But what came out of it
4:25
actually? Well, in June 2025, it was
4:28
Israel going solo and then America intervening later.
4:31
And in February 2026, it was America from the first place.
4:36
The attention of many now is not so much the power plants.
4:39
There's great concern about what could happen if if the Iranian
4:43
grid was knocked off. But people are pointing to the
4:46
fact that this deadline, this five day deadline ends in on
4:50
Friday. That's when the marines are due
4:53
into the Persian Gulf and the attention of many Iranian
4:56
observers are is on that. So there is so far quite a bit
5:00
of scepticism regarding this idea that this is really a a
5:04
true and genuine diplomatic gambit, not helped of course by
5:08
the fact that the Iranians keep denying very in very strong
5:14
terms that there is any diplomatic talk going on.
5:18
Just on those Marines, mark the 2500 Marines, is it your
5:22
understanding as as a military man, as a naval man, that they
5:26
might still want to take over Hag Island or do something else
5:30
that would secure the Strait of Hormuz militarily?
5:33
There's two distinct missions for these Marines, the one I
5:36
hope they're doing, which is you bring them in.
5:38
So they're there for what's called non combatant evacuation
5:41
of our operations. That, you know, if someone gets
5:43
too unhappy with us in a, in a, in a country and our, you know,
5:47
our American citizens or our embassies under siege, the
5:50
Marines go in and extract. They're very good at that.
5:53
The Amphibious Radius group's the perfect unit.
5:55
The idea the other set one would be some kind of offensive
5:58
military operation with ground forces, which I cannot think of
6:01
anything less desirable. It is absolutely the wrong thing
6:05
because let's just take Cargyland first.
6:07
If I let's say I put boots on the ground on Carg Island, is my
6:10
idea that I would then control flow from Carg Island?
6:13
No, they can turn off the spigot at the other end.
6:16
You know, their fields are in Iran.
6:18
You know, it's just the, it's the gas station.
6:21
Now if the goal is I want to stop Iran from using it, it's a
6:25
much easier way to do that. I just warned the next, I warned
6:27
merchant shipping, the next ship we see going to pull into one of
6:31
the terminal for, you know, for loading, we're going to sink you
6:34
when you're 5 minutes out. Then when a ship starts going
6:36
and it's 20 minutes out, we say you got 15 minutes, you have 10
6:39
minutes. You have at that point there are
6:41
lawful combatant. You've warned them not to do
6:43
this and then you hit them, and that will be a sign to all other
6:47
Iranian Shadow fleet merchant captains that this is not the
6:50
right thing to do. You can stop flow from Carg
6:53
Island without putting boots on the ground.
6:56
So what do you think the Iranians want out of this, this
7:00
kind of quagmire Y, you know, ambiguous state of the war right
7:05
now? What do you think they want?
7:06
And what do you think they can realistically get from the
7:09
Americans? And we'll talk about the
7:11
Israelis later. Well, first of all, they don't
7:14
want the ceasefire for the sake of a ceasefire.
7:16
They've been there already last year after the 12 day war.
7:20
That was simply if you want the temporary cessation of
7:23
facilities. It didn't really bring this war
7:25
to an end. They keep insisting that they
7:27
want some form of guarantees that this won't happen again,
7:30
that we don't go back to a situation where there's a
7:33
ceasefire and maybe 5 or 6 months down the line again there
7:36
is some sudden attack because of the diplomatic process doesn't
7:40
go well. They want they they claim that
7:47
the the whole navigation of the Strait of Hormuz won't go back
7:51
to what it was prior to the 28th of February.
7:53
They want some form of a new arrangement where they will have
7:56
a say on whoever gets to navigate through the Strait of
8:00
Hormuz. They keep existing on war
8:03
reparations, saying that according to the laws of war,
8:06
they weren't the ones who attacked in the 1st place.
8:08
They were attacked and therefore there needs to be reparations.
8:11
And we should bear in mind that over three weeks of incessant
8:15
bombardment has obviously caused a lot of material damage in
8:18
Iran, not just to military installations, but also to a lot
8:21
of civilian ones. So they have a, they have a
8:25
rather long list, if you want, of grievances and demands.
8:30
We have to see how many of them are realistic.
8:33
But what still emerges is that they're not very keen, as I
8:36
said, on some, some sort of plane ceasefire to bring this
8:44
fighting for an end because they, they, they believe that
8:47
they can still, you know, their pain threshold hasn't been,
8:50
hasn't been reached yet. And, and this 15 point plan that
8:54
Trump was talking about, of which the first three points
8:57
seem to be the same thing According to him, I mean, is
9:00
that, is that real, that 15 point plan?
9:02
Have you seen a version of it as anyone seen a version of it?
9:06
Well, I'm not sure Trump, I'm not sure Trump's seen a version
9:08
of it. I think he was just making it up
9:10
as he it's just going along there.
9:11
I mean, that was really, yeah, that was ridiculous.
9:13
I, I agree with all the points they're just raised.
9:15
And and I will say this, it's pretty rich for Iran to ask for
9:19
reparations considering how much damage they've done throughout
9:21
the Middle East over the last 45 years, not least of which the
9:25
Houthis using Iranian weapons to place European and Asian, you
9:30
know, make shipping at risk for 2 1/2 years.
9:32
There was significant cost there, but there's not going to
9:34
be reparations. I, I think that's just something
9:37
they, they say, you know, negotiating point, but most of
9:40
those points will be tough for Trump to sign off on without
9:43
looking like he lost this conflict.
9:45
And that right now is, is what he's trying to avoid.
9:48
So I actually think if those truly were negotiating points,
9:51
that would cause him to continue to strike.
9:54
I mean, there seems to be a lot of them, you know, from what we
9:56
know, we don't know much because we haven't seen the list.
9:58
They seem to be fairly impossible points for the
10:02
Iranians. So do you think they're kind of
10:04
they're just putting that out there, Mark, to say that they're
10:07
kind of being trying to be reasonable knowing that they'll
10:10
be turned down and that the war will just continue?
10:13
I that's given Trump a little more credit than I normally
10:17
would, only in the sense that I mean, he would like an off ramp
10:21
on his terms. I just don't think, you know, if
10:24
he showed us what those terms were, there would be a problem.
10:27
Some congressmen would have problems with those terms Even
10:29
so the American public would. So my guess is he's he he's
10:33
talking about talking with them for the exact reason of calming
10:36
the markets. I agree with that.
10:38
And and and, you know, trying to calm the markets, vice really
10:42
trying to end the war just yet. So you should, I guess the
10:45
Iranians or the the rump regime has really now learned quite a
10:49
few things. It's learnt about its own levels
10:52
of resilience and it's learnt about the fact that it can, that
10:55
it's most effective weapon of war is control of the Strait of
10:59
Hormuz. It does seem that the main
11:01
theatre of this conflict has shifted there.
11:03
I mean, Iran keeps firing missiles into the Persian Gulf
11:07
States and into Israel. It's, it keeps doing that as
11:11
routine, maybe not as much as before, but until it has
11:13
launchers, it will keep doing that.
11:15
But Hormuz really seems to be the crux here also because it is
11:19
letting through tankers of its allies, China, India, Pakistan,
11:24
it's it's selectively allowing tankers through to give the
11:26
impression that the Strait is not physically closed or
11:29
obstacled. There are ways of getting past
11:32
the block. If if if shippers talk to talk
11:37
to Iran in terms of resilience, we have to see what in the long
11:42
run the the damage caused by the assassination of a prominent
11:46
figures in the past week we had particularly Ali Laura Johnny
11:50
would be bridged. Laura Johnny was replaced today
11:52
by a hard line RGC member of Supreme National Security
11:57
Council Chief. So it really looks like Iran is
12:01
digging in. And that's not the sort of
12:03
appointment you would do to appease if you want the
12:06
diplomatic process necessarily. So again, the US has to keep
12:11
looking for who the right intermediary would be of a
12:14
potential diplomatic process. So far, Iran has really batten
12:18
the hatches since Trump made those announcements yesterday.
12:21
And just briefly on the Strait of Hormuz, I've read somewhere,
12:24
correct me if I'm wrong, that what they might be getting out
12:27
of any kind of deal or talks, if they're going on at all, is to
12:31
establish the principle that they can use the Strait of
12:33
Hormuz as a kind of toll gate where they charge tankers that
12:36
go through once the fighting has stopped.
12:38
Is that pie in the sky for them? Well, it is certainly their
12:43
intention. Apparently they've already
12:45
managed to collect some tolls from such from some from from
12:49
some ships. Again, given the extent of
12:53
weaponry, they seem to have to be able drones and and very
12:57
short range missiles that they can they can hit those lanes.
13:00
They could try to enforce it. But again, in all of this, we
13:05
have to see what the reaction of the Persian Gulf states is.
13:07
They, they had heard about threats, Iranian threats to
13:11
shoot miss 1000 drones for many years.
13:14
Now it has happened and now they have to adapt as well to this
13:17
changing situation. So it is a a new regime for
13:20
everyone really. Yeah, the tolling ships going
13:23
through this course is a violation of international law,
13:25
right? That is supposed to be a
13:27
international transit. So that's not going to stay on.
13:29
In fact, if I were the US, I'd put a couple weapons in Little
13:32
Rock Island, where they're controlling this from.
13:34
It's a military site. It's used for electronic warfare
13:37
and jamming, you know, and then you can end a lot of that
13:40
scheme. And plus, the other thing we
13:42
should be doing is the United States by you with current
13:46
sections we have, can grab almost all of these Iranian
13:49
shadow fleet ships on the other side.
13:51
Why we're choosing not to board those ships, take control of
13:55
them, put them in a bullpen, you know, seize them, which we
13:58
legally can do and put them in a bullpen.
14:01
I don't know. I mean, I think this has more to
14:03
do with how Trump views India and China than how Trump views
14:06
Iran. But over time, we're going to
14:08
need to start doing that. We could put an end to Iranian
14:12
control, I mean, to to Iranian control of the straits.
14:16
We have just chosen not to do that yet.
14:18
And I think it's because we're still continue to do military
14:21
attacks to knock down the drone and small missile threat so that
14:26
eventually we could convoy through ships.
14:28
But to me, the other option is to seize the ships.
14:31
Iran let's through and end that kind of back door benefit to the
14:35
Iranian regime. Just explain to me in in more
14:38
detail, Mark, how you think you could end the block, the
14:42
effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz without having to go,
14:46
you know, having to invade the the southern shore of Iran, for
14:49
instance, or some of the islands in there.
14:51
How would you do that, you know, without with minimum cost?
14:55
There's four things that really affect you that Iran's been able
14:57
to effectively use. They're short range missiles.
15:00
They're any ship cruise missiles, which I think are are
15:02
really getting attrited and and reduced down to a low level, a
15:06
manageable level drones, which are much harder.
15:09
I think Iran, I think the fact that drone launches are down
15:12
does not mean Iran has significantly less drones.
15:15
It means they're firing significantly less drones.
15:18
So the drones are still available and they're much
15:20
harder to find. You and I could put, you know,
15:23
pick up a couple of Shahed drones and put them in a put
15:26
them in a garage together. We could not park a short, you
15:29
know, an anti ship cruise missile launcher in our garage,
15:33
right? So I mean this is a much harder
15:34
thing to target. I think we're we're back behind
15:36
on that. The third one is the small boats
15:39
that could come out and threaten them.
15:41
I think we're removing those and that the a 10s would really be a
15:44
problem for those small boats. Then the 4th 1 is the mines and
15:50
I think that's a neat that's still a hard one too.
15:52
And we'd have to create remove the first 3 so that we can
15:55
safely do a mine sweep, mine hunting, mine sweeping, and then
15:59
you can start convoy operations. What I just described is
16:02
something that still takes weeks.
16:04
And it was part of the airplane. I do think we're probably slower
16:07
than I would have expected to really focus Americans bombing
16:11
effort, you know, strike efforts on the bond or Abbas.
16:14
There were strikes all throughout the first three weeks
16:16
there. But it's becoming a focus now.
16:18
And I, so I think you'll see a change in Iranian capability and
16:21
capacity over the next week down there.
16:24
And and what's your best guess of how long this thing will
16:26
carry on for? Look, I think Iran, I think we
16:30
probably underestimated how long it would take to get rid of some
16:33
of these things by a week or two.
16:35
I think Tel launching, finding drone, drone launchers and
16:40
missile launchers is harder, is always harder than you think.
16:44
I think the Navy, the naval impact is taken care of.
16:48
The ballistic missiles will be taken care of to a manageable
16:51
level. Most of the ballistic missiles
16:53
are being, I mean, I would say, when I say most, I say well over
16:55
90% are being engaged now because they're not enough of
16:58
them flying at once to overload any of the Arab state or Israeli
17:03
systems. It's still the drones that that
17:06
are getting through. And I think bringing in the
17:08
Ukrainian drone systems is going to knock that down South
17:11
overall, that that they, the Iranians will have less and less
17:15
impact on their neighbors and less and less surety of being
17:19
able to block the straits or Hormuz each day this bombing
17:22
campaign goes on. But the president has to have
17:25
the will to do that for another week or two.
17:27
And I'm, you know, as I said to you yesterday, I'm not 100%
17:31
sure, you know, he has the, the staying power.
17:36
Savio Shamim, obviously the, the Iranian regime probably thinks,
17:40
you know, one, we've survived this despite this massive
17:43
bombardment for the last three weeks and a bit.
17:47
And we, we can, you know, we have a lot of resilience and we
17:49
can maybe survive this a bit longer.
17:51
But what's their long term plan here?
17:52
Do you think they have any kind of long term strategy about
17:55
what, what their Republic will look like?
17:57
And I don't know, two months time or maybe six months time or
18:00
a year's time. No, that is that is probably not
18:05
there yet in terms of strategy because of course we saw how the
18:09
June 2025 conflict had the very deep political ramifications,
18:14
increased Iran's international isolation, worsened economic
18:17
situation and it of course fed into the January 2025 protests
18:22
and that heavy-handed repression that we witnessed.
18:26
None of the economic indicators were good at the were actually
18:30
far worse than January when the war started.
18:32
They'll be even worse moving forward.
18:35
So clearly probably sanctions relief is again something that
18:40
the Iranians were really press on if if there is a diplomatic
18:44
initiative because they have to go back to I think selling at
18:48
least to royal in a in a in a more normal manner.
18:51
And let's not forget that Iranian tankers are filling up
18:54
in hard. They're transiting, of course,
18:56
to the state of Ormans because Iran allows them to.
18:59
But, and, but despite the high oil prices, that money isn't
19:02
really going back to Iran. It's being stashed away in in
19:05
China and India and elsewhere. And it's really barter
19:09
agreement. So these these this situation
19:11
obviously won't improve if there is a just a plain ceasefire.
19:14
So this is something that has to be high on the agenda.
19:16
And then all the political confrontation of January and the
19:19
political crisis which led to those protests and, and and was
19:23
again revamping prior to the start of the conflicts,
19:27
particularly university campuses, hasn't gone away.
19:29
So these are all unattended issues that the Iranian system
19:32
will have to deal with. And just tell me on that front,
19:35
I mean, do you think it's possible that the protesters
19:37
will descend back onto the streets when the bombing stops
19:41
or, you know, or dies down because they feel safer to do
19:43
so? Well, politics has obviously
19:46
gone into the background and for example, important civil society
19:50
leaders such as the Nobel Prize winner Nagiswamadi, and then
19:55
political dissidents such as Mostafotas.
19:56
To them you're saying Mousavi, they're all under house arrest
20:00
or in jail. Yet, for example, there's been
20:02
no leniency by the new supreme leader after coming to power and
20:05
amnesty or anything like that. So I guess those people will be
20:08
there university campus activity, both in terms of pro
20:12
monarchists, if you want students and also leftist
20:15
students will probably revamp up.
20:17
So an end to the conflict can can can mark the resumption of
20:21
political activity and political dissidents.
20:23
And that's all non armed and not supporting to a great extent the
20:29
the the military offensive. But of course, there has to be a
20:33
stop to the war for such activities to reemerge.
20:36
Indeed so, but when you compare today to January, do you think
20:39
that regime change from below, from the streets, is less likely
20:44
now than it was then? I mean, we are three weeks into
20:48
this, we still haven't seen a clear inkling of a of an
20:52
uprising happening, which was what Trump and Netanyahu really
20:55
wanted from the outset. And that's that, Trump said in
20:58
his very first message of 28th of February.
21:00
You wanted help. And this has helped.
21:02
So rise up, we haven't seen any sign of our uprising in favor of
21:05
Rizzo Pallavi, this opposition figure yet.
21:09
And again, it seems to be similar as in June 2025 in the
21:12
sense that the Iranian people are not inclined to, to engage
21:17
in wide scale political protests as during a bombing campaign.
21:21
And I would say we're in favor of of sort of a regime change
21:26
and courage from abroad. I, I think there is this
21:28
tendency, notwithstanding the existence of very serious
21:32
grievances and I would say very serious opposition to the
21:35
Islamic Republic as a whole and calling for a transitional way,
21:39
which is what, for example, people like those dissidents
21:41
Mousavi Todd Zodi and and Nagismo Ahmadi and others were
21:44
saying. Mark, what about the Gulf states
21:47
that have been sort of, you know, victims and ringside
21:50
observers in all this? What?
21:52
What would it take for them to get militarily involved in this
21:55
conflict? Yeah.
21:57
So first, I think there's a difference between them.
21:59
You, the United Arab Emirates has taken the the majority of
22:02
these strikes. I mean, it is obvious who Iran's
22:06
real beef is with in this, even though, you know, Qatar
22:10
actually, you know, hosts a lot more military forces.
22:13
UAE has gotten more than 50% of the ballistic missiles, cruise
22:16
missiles. I think if any of the states
22:18
were likely to do, you know, you know, take action against Iran,
22:24
it would be UAEI would not be surprised if they weren't
22:26
already striking Abu Mossad, some disputed islands between
22:31
themselves and the Iranians. And, and I, and I think the good
22:35
news for them is they they've done OK on ballistic missile
22:37
engagements done very well. In fact, where they particularly
22:41
the the UAE, where they haven't done well, are the fixed drone,
22:46
their ability to to defend fixed targets against long range
22:49
drones. And that's going to change.
22:51
It's already starting to change. The the Ukrainian personnel are
22:55
on the ground. They brought some equipment
22:57
already. They're going to be able to
22:59
start defending radar sites, air bases, hotels, power stations to
23:05
salinization plants, hopefully in a slightly different order
23:08
there, you know, in a much better way.
23:11
So I think if we can get that moving, they'll be in a better
23:14
position to defend themselves against what I think would be a
23:17
gradually, A continually, gradually reducing Iranian
23:21
launch metric. It's in Israel.
23:24
I think it's already OK on that. Yeah, but I mean, people moved
23:27
to the Gulf especially, you know, people like British expats
23:29
or American expats because they didn't want to live in a
23:32
fortress. They moved there because they
23:33
wanted to live in a low tax environment with good weather,
23:36
you know, a beach and and maybe even a drink if you're in Dubai.
23:39
So the idea that these places become fortresses in a dangerous
23:43
neighborhood kind of completely undermines part of their appeal,
23:47
doesn't it, Mark? Well, I mean, Israel was already
23:49
under this threat and it experienced it four times.
23:51
And and I don't describe Israel as a fortress.
23:54
I mean, I think you still you have investment and movement.
23:57
They'll be all right. They'll get that.
23:59
I don't worry about that. The long term that the if we do
24:02
this right, the one of the goals of this is that we have a 457
24:06
year respite from these kind of attacks.
24:09
But that really means the US has to carry this out right and put
24:13
get Iran weak enough that we can dictate some terms on who
24:16
maintains air power over the country, which is going to be us
24:19
in Israel, which is de facto right now, but needs to become
24:22
kind of du jour. And then, you know, limit
24:25
Chinese and Russian resupplies. Because if we have weapon
24:28
systems, if we can do that, I'm, I'm of the opinion that we're
24:32
knocking back their defence and their equivalent of a defence
24:35
industrial base, you know, half a decade.
24:38
But even then you know what happens then that's half a
24:40
decade is five years. That's not very much time.
24:43
What I mean in terms of the long term vision for what happens in
24:46
Iran, I guess a lot of it you know is up for grabs and is
24:49
going to be decided depending on the state of the war etcetera.
24:53
But what likelihood do you give the possibility that Iran
24:58
becomes a peaceable, you know, vaguely democratic nation that
25:02
one does not want to create another Ring of Fire in this
25:05
particular neighborhood? Is that is that a complete
25:08
fantasy or could it actually still happen?
25:11
However you look at the Iranian political scene, there is a
25:14
clear ascendancy of the RGC and the Revolutionary Guards and A
25:18
and a clear ascendancy of people who have the RGC background.
25:23
And this could be consolidated in in the next two years when
25:27
there will be further new presidential elections.
25:31
So clearly, in a situation in which this external military
25:36
threat and crisis is not really settled, one cannot see the
25:41
Islamic Republic evolving towards the sort of moderate
25:44
politics that were there during the presidencies of, say,
25:47
Muhammad Khatami or Hassan Rouhani, the president who
25:50
reached that nuclear deal with the Obama administration.
25:54
I think those times have gone. And until the Islamic Republic
25:58
sees itself threatened by this military confrontation, then
26:04
there will always be at least the messaging that such a
26:07
strategy could occur again. So really what you're saying,
26:10
and it's very depressing, is that and, and maybe many people
26:14
would say, well, we told you so is that if you, you know, the
26:16
bombing of Iran by Israel and America in the last, you know, 3
26:21
weeks and a bit has been totally counterproductive when it comes
26:25
to either regime change or, you know, softening up the Iranian
26:31
ayatollahs that are still left in charge to take a more
26:33
reasonable approach. Well, it's certainly a set back
26:38
the political moves for transition away from the Islamic
26:43
Republic or or mass protests or as I said, protest was occurring
26:47
again on university campuses. Political and if you want civil
26:53
society as being completely interrupted.
26:55
Political life in Iran since the 28th of February.
26:58
We don't know when it will be resumed.
26:59
The Internet has been strangled and the importance of the
27:02
Internet for political mobilization in Iran as
27:05
elsewhere is very crucial. Who knows if the Internet has
27:08
renew it until the 28th of February will be resumed in
27:11
Iran. So all these things are
27:13
obviously a set back and again until these that the the
27:17
surviving leadership of the Islamic Republic, which could
27:20
either be the one that's running the country in this instant or
27:24
could be a reduced 1 of it continues to be, you know,
27:29
imbued with a siege mentality. Quite clearly, the spaces for a
27:34
gradual transition or the returning to the scene of the
27:36
modern flank, which seems completely sidelined at the
27:39
moment, will be very restricted. Mark, I'm in Israel, as you
27:45
know, and I spoke to the Israeli economics minister this morning,
27:49
and he always said, you know, we have to still finish the job we
27:52
have. We're not done yet.
27:53
And they want Trump to stay engaged.
27:55
And I think they're terrified that he might just head for the
27:58
exit because it suits him politically, especially in the
28:01
midterm election year. And as we drove back from Tel
28:04
Aviv to Jerusalem, we saw this massive poster on the side of
28:08
the motorway saying, Mr. President, finish the job,
28:13
right? So I just wonder to what extent
28:16
Trump, and indeed the Iranians are beholden to what the
28:20
Israelis think they have to do in this existential fight as
28:25
they see it. I'm not sure he's beholden, but
28:28
I think that he's influenced by Netanyahu and look at the
28:32
problems. I still have trouble
28:33
understanding what the strategic and, you know, end state at the
28:36
start was. I understand the military where
28:37
the Ways and Means how you take out the 5 or 6 lines of effort
28:41
and that's all being executed. But if the strategic end state
28:45
was regime change, some other things should have happened
28:47
beforehand. You know, the only time I've
28:49
seen regime change work by airpower alone was Libya in 2011
28:54
where we we had about, you know, 40 or 50,000 armed insurgents on
28:57
the ground or possible in 1999 where we had 90,000 plus KLA
29:02
warriors on the ground. Those don't exist here, not yet.
29:05
And so regime change probably if that was your strategic
29:08
objective was not a good one. Changing how the regime acts
29:12
that we can do. I mean, this, this is going to
29:15
leave a, a mark on the, on the IRGC's military capabilities and
29:19
even the Artesha's military, the, the Iranian military's
29:23
military capabilities. And if if we, and I mean a
29:26
significant mark, like an inability to do a lot of the
29:29
things that they've been able to do in the past, and that's going
29:32
to leave a mark, you know, that's going to have an impact
29:35
on how they affect their Arab neighbors, how they affect
29:38
Israel over the next five years. And what I've argued is we need
29:42
to take advantage of that five years to create the conditions
29:44
for better Arab cooperation, better Israeli Arab cooperation
29:48
and support to the Iranian protesters in a, in a more
29:52
useful way for them to to eventually succeed.
29:56
So there is value in this, but you got to carry it out.
29:59
The worst thing you can do is terminate this thing before
30:02
you've had that impact and leave the IRGC in charge and
30:05
recognizing that they're more resilient than America is
30:08
willing to do something. But but it looks as if that is
30:11
what's happening right now. If he took it if, if Trump pulls
30:15
the plug on this, that's true. That's why the Israelis are
30:17
worried. You know, that if he put and
30:20
they should have been worried about the idea that this wasn't
30:22
on the table is is ignoring every other thing Trump's done
30:27
over the last, you know, nine years.
30:30
So, you know, this was a chance. Look what he did last in the 12
30:33
day war. The 12 day war should have been
30:35
a 24 day war. He did his two days of bombing
30:38
and said we're done. I think there was really air
30:40
strikes in the air that had to be pulled back because of his
30:43
personality. So yes, this is a risk.
30:47
It's a risk the Israelis took in doing this with the United
30:49
States and but they couldn't have done it alone.
30:53
So to everything I'm talking about this significant, you
30:56
know, 20,000 strikes kind of attack.
30:59
So from from my perspective, the key here is to not stop the Ways
31:04
and Means the the six lines of effort attacking certain
31:07
specific capabilities of Iran. Well, I think we're going to
31:10
wrap it up here. There's tons more to discuss,
31:12
and we'll be back here again soon, I'm sure.
31:15
But Doctor Shavosh Ranji Bardemi from Saint Andrews University
31:19
and former US Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, thank you very much
31:22
to both of you for explaining this very complicated situation.
31:26
I hope you enjoyed the forecast. See you soon.