Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 367 - 10/6/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 367 - 10/6/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 367 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Monday. The weekend is over.
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A new week begins as we steam through the early portion of
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October. And I tell you what, guys, it's
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almost Halloween time. So one of my favorite times of
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year. We got football, we got
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Halloween. I don't really love the the heat
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of the summer, so I'll take the cool weather and the leaves
0:54
changing. I'll be either way, guys.
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Let's see if we can kick off a new week on a hot note.
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I got one play for you. Now I know there's some Major
1:02
League Baseball games going on today, so I wish you the best of
1:04
luck. There's one game I was kind of
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maybe leaning on a little bit, but I said, you know what, I
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really like this Monday Night Football game, Kansas City
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Chiefs, Jacksonville Jaguars. So I got one play for you
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tonight. Going to try to go 1 and O and
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finish up the week on a hot note.
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And then wanted to recap the weekend because it was kind of a
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tale of two days where if you look at Saturday 1 and 2 -, 1.17
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units. Now we did hit a nice Cincinnati
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dog to fave line move. Remember Cincinnati Open as a
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dog flip to a favorite. Even though the public was all
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over Iowa State, the ranked team, undefeated team, we
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trusted the market had a good sharp move towards Cincy.
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They came through. Bigley for the team
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unfortunately suffered one of the worst bad beats of the year.
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I'll put it right up there with the Rams getting that block
1:49
field goal or maybe the Rams scoring that 88 yard to two
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Atwell catch to kill my 3 1/2 with the Colts.
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But put it right up there, Vanderbilt.
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Vanderbilt plus 10 1/2. Now, I got a little nervous
2:00
because you saw that Vandy line get up to like 11 1/2 or even 12
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1/2 and I said, oh, this isn't good markets going against us.
2:08
But still, we were in position to win that game.
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Vandy was down 9 points. The game was pretty much over.
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There was like 20 seconds left on the clock.
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It's 4th down. Instead of picking up the first
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down and just getting down and ending the game and winning by
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9. What happened?
2:24
Well, of course, this college running back, I think it's Jam
2:27
Williams, if I believe correctly.
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Yep, he decided to go score. So he goes right through, you
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know, the defense and, and scores a touchdown and that
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makes the final score 16 point margin of victory instead of a
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nine point margin of victory. So again, maybe we're kind of in
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a in a bad spot seeing that line go back to Alabama anyway.
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But man, when you got a + 10 1/2, your team's down by 9, the
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game is pretty much over. Just get the first down and lay
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down, get on the ground. Nope, Kids got a score and we we
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lose our Vandy 10 1/2. So that was a tough one to
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swallow. And then also epic tease when we
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were looking at the Florida State game because on the one
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hand, we nailed that market. Got plus 4 1/2.
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Did you guys see the Seminoles closed plus 3 1/2?
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So nice little closing line value play.
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We read the market correctly and basically Florida State got
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rolled early. At one point they were down by,
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I don't know, 20 points or something.
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They have a furious comeback in the fourth quarter.
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They end up losing 28 to 22. So we lose our 4 1/2.
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But what was really frustrating is if you stayed up and watched
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that game, and I was very tempted to turn that thing off.
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How bad it was going was the fact that the idiot Florida
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State coach kicked a field goal late instead of going for it, in
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which if you went for it and scored a TD again, we would have
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covered that number. So terrible bad beat Vandy,
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Florida State dead came back alive.
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You know that Undertaker meme where he gets out of the coffin
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only to let us down by being a a scaredy cat by kicking the field
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goal? So 1 and 2 -. 1.17 units
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Saturday. But then guys our best Sunday of
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the year in the NFL four and O clean sweep, bust out the brooms
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plus 3.35 units and absolutely massive NFL Sunday started
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really well with the Broncos. Now the are starting even he'll
4:16
hear. Here's what I got to say.
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I'll start with the Browns because this is a very, very
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important example of getting the breast best price and shopping
4:23
for the best number because if you remember the Cleveland
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Browns in the the London game, we got them plus 4 1/2.
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They closed plus 3 1/2 and they lost by four.
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Now, it was a tough loss again, because they're actually winning
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and there was a late touchdown to, to make it a, to turn a, a
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cover into a, a lost cover if you got the 3 1/2.
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But this is the important thing of trying to pick off good
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numbers early in the week, which is what I really try to focus on
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on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Because you could have gotten a
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four and a half earlier in the week and most books were at 3
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1/2, but you had a couple books that were still at 4 1/2.
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I believe it was either DraftKings or maybe it was
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FanDuel. But if you got a four and a
5:00
half, you cover with the Browns, you got a 3 1/2.
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You lose with the Browns. So always get the best of the
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number and always have multiple outs.
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If you are listening to this podcast, I know you're not
5:09
betting through one sports book. I know you have four or five
5:12
sports books. So you can again get the best
5:14
price, which turns the Browns from a loser into a winner.
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Then the Denver Broncos had an epic, epic comeback.
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Actually went out to brunch with my my wife, my mother-in-law and
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my brother, my brother-in-law. And I didn't see the game.
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When I got home, the Broncos were down 17 to 3 and I'm like,
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oh, this ain't good. Furious fourth quarter comeback.
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They end up going for it and taking the lead is why I love
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Sean Payton. And then they hold on and win
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the game outright. So Broncos plus 4 1/2 epic
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comeback. That was great to see.
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Now I mentioned four and oh, you might be saying, Josh, there are
5:47
only three plays you talked about on the pod on Friday.
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Well, always remember read my sharp report for vison.com and
5:52
you can always follow my plays officially from the Juice Reel
5:56
app because I added the Saints late.
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Now it was tough for me because I am on the Saints under 5 1/2
6:01
win total. But I noticed a really sharp
6:03
move toward the Saints. At one point they were actually
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getting like plus 1 1/2 + 2 1/2. Then they flipped to -2 1/2.
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So a good dog to fave line move in favor of New Orleans.
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And that really kind of showed itself, you know, closer to to
6:16
Sunday. So I added the New Orleans money
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line that came through. And then lastly, my New England
6:21
Patriots. I tweeted this out earlier
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because it was a game we talked about on the Rhythm Rundown on
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Thursday. But you never want to bet on
6:28
your favorite team just because they're your favorite team.
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But if your favorite team happens to be sharp with a good
6:33
rhythm edge, you let that thing fly.
6:36
So Patriots plus 8 1/2. It got all the way down to 7
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1/2. So we beat the closing line.
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Patriots pulled off the outright upset, which was fantastic for
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the over 7F win total. And you can throw another throw
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another primetime dog on the fire with the Patriots coming
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through. So 1 and 2 -. 1.17 units
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Saturday, but a beautiful chef's kiss 4 and O + 3.35 unit day on
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Sunday with the Pats, the Saints, the Broncos, and the
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Browns now pouring out. For anyone in Survivor, I was
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already dead when I took the Rams.
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They let me down. But also, if you had the
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Tennessee Titans #1 Congrats to you, the Titans.
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But if you had the Arizona Cardinals, one of the worst,
7:17
worst bad beats in in probably the history of survivor.
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So if you're still alive, Congrats, you dodged some huge
7:23
landmines this week. But anyway, guys, after a great
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Sunday of NFL, let's see if we can keep our NFL hot streak
7:29
going. Let's talk about this big one
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for tonight. Kansas City Chiefs, Jacksonville
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Jaguars 8:15 PM Monday Night Football.
7:36
So setting the stage here, we got the chiefs 2 and two.
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Remember they started O and two, they won two straight.
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They just beat the Ravens 37 to 20 one outright as a 2 1/2 point
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home dog. Remember that was the game Lamar
7:47
Jackson got hurt in. Meanwhile the Jags 3 and one
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just took down the 49ers 26 to 21.
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They won that game outright as a 3 1/2 point Rd. dog.
7:55
So what have you seen across the market here?
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Well, this game opened mostly chiefs -3 on the road and the
8:02
public is back on the Chiefs bandwagon again.
8:04
Started O and two. Now they're two and two.
8:07
Travis, Kelsey, you know obviously in the Taylor Swift
8:10
new album. Go listen to the song Wood and
8:13
read those lyrics That that's not suitable for work.
8:16
But anyway, the public love for the the Swifties and the Kansas
8:18
City Chiefs, it's definitely showing up here with 71% of
8:23
spread bets at DraftKings laying the wood quote UN quote with the
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Chiefs. And this lopsided betting did
8:29
push the line up. So there are a lot of minus
8:31
threes that got up to -3 1/2. However, now that we're at 3 1/2
8:36
with the hook, it's always notable to me.
8:37
What happens next to you go through the hook, Does the hook
8:40
get hit with buyback and then it comes back down?
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Well, I'm looking at the odds right now and quite a few books
8:45
are juicing up the Jag side plus 3 1/2 at -115 So that's notable
8:49
to me because again, heavily bet primetime Monday Night Football
8:53
game, everyone in their mothers on the Chiefs, but we're not up
8:56
to four. If anything, the more expensive
8:58
prices to take the Jags 3 1/2. Maybe it gets down to three.
9:01
We shall see. But again, that resistance, that
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juice movement and being juiced up toward the Jag side tells me
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there's some sharp money buying low on the Jags plus the hook.
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Now aside from just that hook, sharp buyback, you are in a
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great contrarian spot. Jacksonville Jaguars only
9:17
getting 29% of spread bets. At DraftKings, however, they are
9:20
getting 38% of spread dollars. And at Circo, they're only
9:23
getting 25% of spread bets, but 30% of spread dollars.
9:27
Now, it's not like a, you know, 30% bets, 80% dollars.
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But it does show you that they are very unpopular, but they are
9:33
getting more money than they are bets or tickets.
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So that's a good sign that the bigger, sharper wagers are in
9:38
their favor. Now let's get to our system
9:40
matches here. Quite a few caught my eye.
9:42
The first one primetime dogs we went through, I think it was
9:46
maybe like 2020 to 2023 were like primetime dogs and
9:50
primetime unders. They were just cashing at a
9:52
ridiculous rate. Last year, you had a lot of
9:55
favorites and overs hit. But luckily, hopefully, knock on
9:59
wood, we're getting back to these primetime dogs because
10:02
with the Patriots covering last night and winning outright,
10:05
primetime dogs, which the Jaguars would match here are now
10:08
10 and five against the spread this season, 67%.
10:11
They're now 151 and 131 ATS 54% with a 3% ROI since 2020.
10:18
If you'd layer in another angle here, primetime dogs getting 3
10:21
1/2 or more, which is in the Jag spot tonight, they improved to
10:25
one O 5 and 78 ATS 57% with a 10% ROI since 2020.
10:31
Another angle here is a conference home dog getting five
10:33
points or less. Not quite that divisional dog
10:35
angle, but at least you're in the same conference you play
10:37
more often than a non conference matchup.
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Those teams are 176 and 151 ATS 54% with a 4% ROI since 2018.
10:47
Dig a little deeper here. 1 angle that I was looking at in
10:50
the Patriots game was how Josh Allen just did not cover a lot
10:53
of big spread. 7 1/2 or more. I think he's now 14 and 18 ATS.
10:58
But think about Patrick Mahomes. It's not quite a big spread, but
11:01
when Mahomes is favored by 3 1/2 points or more in his career,
11:06
he's only 37 and 46 against the spread.
11:09
That is a 45% cover rate. We all know the angle of Mahomes
11:13
is a dog. I think he's now 13 and three
11:15
against the spread. But when he's favored and
11:17
favored by, you know, a field goal and a hook or more, again,
11:20
he he's covering 45% of the time.
11:23
Also, in his last six Monday Night Football games, Mahomes is
11:27
1 and five against the spread. So in this spot, it's been
11:30
actually a smart bet. Even though the public says give
11:32
me KC all day, all day, they're going to win by, you know, seven
11:35
or more, 10 or more. No actually fading Mahomes in
11:38
the spot has been profitable. You also add 1 little angle here
11:43
in terms of the rhythm system match or prediction?
11:47
Well, rhythm with a green star. Recommended play has Jags plus
11:51
2.9, so rhythms at 2.9 and we can get a hook on a 3 1/2 and be
11:56
again, against the public, against all the drunk guys at
11:59
the Boss. And yeah, the Jags stink.
12:01
Casey's going to roll them. That is a great angle here to
12:05
bet against the public. And again, take that dog plus
12:07
the three and half, which is what I'm doing.
12:09
I'm taking Jags plus 3 1/2 tonight.
12:12
And now in terms of the total, I'm not touching it, guys.
12:14
But this has been a little bit interesting to me because on the
12:17
one hand it has gone up, you know, a lot of these books open
12:20
around 44 1/2 and it's now 45 1/2.
12:24
However, if you look a little bit deeper here, this total got
12:26
I believe up to like 46, now 47. And then you had a ton of sharp
12:31
buyback, hit that under and drop it down.
12:33
And again, if if you like the over again, the line did tick
12:36
up, but I'll just be a little cautious because it is a very
12:39
popular over right now. 71% of bets at DraftKings are playing
12:44
the over. So it's a contrarian play to go
12:46
under and circa only half the tickets, but 71% of dollars are
12:50
on the under. We have seen primetime unders 9
12:53
and eight this year, 53% they are 199 and one 4458% with an
12:59
11% ROI since 2019. And it's kind of a windy under
13:03
now. It's not cold, obviously you're
13:05
in Florida, but it's going to be mid, mid, high 70s.
13:09
But there are 8 to 10 mile per hour winds with gusts up to 20
13:13
mph. So again, if you told me you bet
13:16
the over 44 1/2 early, you're beating the closing line, you're
13:19
looking good. Also, if you told me you high
13:21
watermark this line at under 47, under 46 1/2, you're also
13:25
looking good because this line is down to 45 1/2.
13:27
But to me kind of not a clear edge either way.
13:30
So I'm just going to stick with this side bet.
13:32
On the Jags, again, we got kind of an inflated dog with some
13:36
sharp buyback. We got good betting system
13:38
matches. We are really contrarian and we
13:40
got rhythm saying this should be a 2.9 game, so maybe Chiefs win
13:44
by three, Maybe we can cover it with a hook, but I'm playing the
13:47
Jags. Hey, I'll you know what?
13:48
I'll take an outright Jags win either way, but I'm taking the
13:51
Jags in a primetime dog spot. Jags plus 3 1/2.
13:56
So that about does it for a little short, but sweet pot on a
13:59
Monday as we wrap up the weekend and hopefully finish up NFL Week
14:03
5 on a hot note. I'm already seeing the Thursday
14:06
night game, Philly and the Giants this basically like a 7
14:10
seven and a half point spread. So we'll keep an eye on that.
14:13
And then, of course, we'll get into our routine of Tuesdays
14:15
looking at early college football bets and then Wednesday
14:18
some early bets in the NFL. But as always, guys wrapping up
14:21
the pod, just some final thoughts.
14:23
I always want to start by saying thank you.
14:25
Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
14:28
busy lives. I know you got a lot going on,
14:30
but you devote you know 2025 minutes to to sweat in these
14:33
sharp games with me. So that that means quite a bit.
14:35
So again, if you do enjoy the pod, if you want to help me grow
14:38
the pod, please could you give it a five star review on Spotify
14:42
or iTunes. Click the follow button.
14:44
That way you get alerted as soon as it drops each day.
14:47
You can also recommend the pod to a friend or leave a nice
14:49
comment under the review section.
14:51
That would all be very much appreciated.
14:54
Next, if you enjoy this style of betting breakdown data-driven
14:57
sharp contrarian betting, you notice that that line was moving
15:00
toward the paths. They matched a bunch of systems.
15:02
You got a 5050, but low bets, higher dollar, sharp line move
15:05
rhythm told you it should be about a seven point game.
15:08
Again, you're not betting with your gut instinct or bias or
15:10
your opinions or what you want, think or hope will happen.
15:14
You're betting based on the numbers, the data, the splits,
15:17
the system matches. You're betting based on the
15:20
numbers and the data, not your opinion.
15:21
So if this style of betting again is, you know, turn the
15:24
light on for you, provided you a blueprint of how to attack the
15:26
market. You're starting to beat some
15:28
closing lines, make some make some sharp bets, hopefully win
15:30
more often and maybe you want to learn more about data-driven
15:33
betting or you want to let me know you appreciate the daily
15:36
insights on the pod. I would love for you if that's
15:39
the case, I hope it's the case to go to Amazon.com and type in
15:42
the NFL sharp betting playbook. It's my second book just came
15:47
out a little less than two months ago, but really proud of
15:50
it. And again, it's going to go
15:51
through all the system matches details approaching how to bet
15:54
the NFL from a data-driven perspective.
15:56
So if you or a buddy of yours or colleague or someone who parlays
16:00
everything and said, yeah, hammer the bills, the bills are
16:03
a lock. And he said, no, I don't know,
16:05
Smart money looks to be on the Pats.
16:07
Please buy a copy of my book, give it a five star review in
16:09
the App Store, leave a nice comment.
16:11
You can also pick up my first book, the Everything Guide to
16:14
Sports Betting, also on Amazon.com.
16:16
So grab one or the other, bring my books to the sports book.
16:19
I'll sign them for you. I'll buy you a beer or ginger
16:22
ale and we'll sweat the Jags together tonight.
16:24
Next, have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Reel yet?
16:26
My two favorite sports betting apps Rhythm fantastic for their
16:30
AI backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
16:33
Also Juice Reel fantastic for a lot of different reasons, but
16:37
this will be the part of the pod where I'm going to pass the hat.
16:39
This pod is free. It cost you nothing to listen if
16:41
you want to support the pod and get these best bets.
16:44
Like maybe you didn't know about the Saints, but you saw that I
16:46
put the Saints as a best bet into the Juice Reel app.
16:49
Then you play it and you got a winner.
16:51
Well hey go sign up to get those official ASG podcast best bets
16:54
from the juicer lap. It costs $4.99 a week so 5 bucks
16:59
for a week's worth of plays. I would love for you guys to to
17:02
support the team and sign up to get those plays.
17:04
I consider it tipping your podcast host.
17:06
Also you're going to get the Robo Jackson best bet picks, the
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sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays, the shop for
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the best line futures all available when you download
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juicer rail. So download rhythm, download
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Juice Rail, you'll be off and running adding two great
17:20
data-driven tools to your data-driven toolkit.
17:24
Next, do you have a live odds page?
17:26
Well, if you don't, you need one.
17:28
You got to have a live odds page.
17:29
I cannot stress this enough. Even if you don't bet in this
17:32
exact style, you got to at least know what are the games being
17:35
played today? What are the start times?
17:37
I need live scoring when the game starts.
17:39
I need live in game wagering odds to pop up and change as the
17:42
game you know goes on in front of me.
17:44
I also need to track line movement, see what the line
17:47
opened at, where is it now, how is it moved, pull up the line
17:50
history, Where's the buyback, Which side's getting juiced up,
17:53
Where's the steam as numbers get lit up in red?
17:55
How can I shop for the best price and find that best number
17:58
all available to you? When you give a shot to odds
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logic, it's the best live odds page around.
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All you got to do is go to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
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That's going to give you a 7 day free trial and 50% off your
18:13
first month of service. Next, have you given a shot to
18:17
Novig yet? Well, Novig, it's pretty cool.
18:20
It is a betting exchange. It's not a sports book, but you
18:23
get better odds with Novig and it's just like a sports book in
18:26
the idea or the fact that you it's a legal book.
18:29
You just, you know, put in deposit your money and you start
18:33
making bets. But instead of betting against
18:34
the house, you're betting against other betters and you're
18:36
getting better numbers. So for example, I'm looking
18:39
right now chiefs -3 1/2 is plus one O 2.
18:43
Jaguars plus 3 1/2 is -1 O 4, so a lot of books are juicing up
18:48
Jags -115 You can get Jags -1 O 4.
18:51
Maybe you like the total over 45 1/2 is -1 O1 under 45 1/2 is -1
18:57
O 2. So you are getting better odds
18:59
to increase your chances of winning and increase your
19:01
payouts by betting through a betting exchange called Novig.
19:04
So if you want to give it a shot, all you got to do is go
19:07
download the Novig app, NOVIG deposit and fund your account.
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And when there's a promo code field, you got to put in Josh
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So you put in 25, you get 25 more, put in 100 to get 25.
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As long as you put in 25 or more, they're going to act tack
19:27
on another 25. So that's pretty cool.
19:31
So that about dozen guys for our Monday Night Football podcast
19:34
here as we kick off a new week. As always, my two final
19:37
thoughts, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City,
19:40
Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
19:42
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut, the Encore in
19:45
Boston, Plain Ridge Park Casino, MGM Springfield, the Nash where
19:49
I'm at on the border of Massachusetts and New Hampshire.
19:53
Out in the desert where the true grinders get down, where Billy
19:55
Walters sends his number runners, where the lowest use
19:57
possible is found at the South Point.
19:59
Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
20:02
swim pool. When you cash a big ticket at
20:04
Circa, you're going to walk up to me.
20:06
You're going to show me Cincinnati dog to fave from
20:08
Saturday. You're going to show me the
20:09
Patriots, the Saints, the Broncos, the Browns.
20:13
Dear God, I hope you guys got plus 4 1/2 there.
20:16
Whatever you do, don't show me Vandy awful bad beat and Florida
20:19
State that the pathetic coach kicking a field goal when he
20:23
should have gone for it. But anyway, guys, first one's on
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me, next one's on you. We're going to post about the
20:27
book Sweatshop contrarian plays all night long.
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So coming off a four and O Sunday or an O and four Sunday,
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a three in one, A1 in 3A2 and two.
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Coming off a great weekend, a terrible weekend.
20:38
Whether you're grinding, whether you're hot, whether you're cold,
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we can never get too high or too low.
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When things are going well, we're not going to get arrogant
20:44
and cocky and think sports betting is easy because it's
20:46
not. But when things are not going
20:48
well and we're struggling and we're doing our part and getting
20:51
bad beaded left and right like the Vandy ending, we can't get
20:54
down on ourselves. We just got to stick to the
20:56
model, stick to the blueprint and keep grinding the system
20:59
matches. And they go a little bit like
21:00
this against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat
21:04
bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
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If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
21:10
So hope you had a great weekend. Everybody see if we can get a
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winner here. Hopefully the Jags keep it close
21:15
and win, lose or draw. I'll be right back at it
21:17
tomorrow for a big Tuesday edition.
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That'll be episode 368 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
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podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and Go Jags.