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Episode 176 - 12/5/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 176 of the All Systems Go Sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Thirsty Thursday. The work week rolls on and
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tonight we have a loaded slate. A lot of great games to talk
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about, highlighted by, of course, Thursday Night Football,
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big match up here, Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions.
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I got a best bet for the side. You might have listened on
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yesterday's pod and maybe jumped on that number before it's
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starting to move. It's still available, but I
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don't know for for how much longer I should say.
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And then also, I have a player prop for you.
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Hoping that a supplementary secondary receiver can go over
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this number, and then we're going to get right back to
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college basketball. I got 5 college basketball bets
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for you, including a fade, the trendy dog, some obscure sharp
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line moves, contrarian plays. We're going to hit on it all
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today on episode 176 of the ASG Pod powered by Rhythm.
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So 7 pack overall to college or sorry, two NFL plays for
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Thursday Night Football, 5 college basketball plays.
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You guys know the drill. 7 plays again, 6 pack.
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And as you're leaving the pack, let's grab a nip.
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I'll go with, I don't know, 6 Sam Adams and then I'll take a
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fireball shot as I leave. But let's see if we can find our
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way to scratch and claw and get four or more of them for
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tonight. Now before we dive into our
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sweats for today, guys, we got to talk about last night.
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Now on the overarching 10,000 foot view, we had a winning
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night. I'll take it every time. 3 and 2
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+ 0.14 units. So don't scoff it .14 units,
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we'll take it. Had some great hits with
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Creighton getting it done. The top contrarian play of the
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day. Everybody and their mother was
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on Kansas, yet we had that unranked versus ranked home dog
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with a contrarian sharp RLM play.
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Creighton wins outright. Didn't trail at all in the game.
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Love seeing that. And then also we had a great
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Dookie's win. I had to battle back and forth
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because the guy in Auburn was his name, Petticoat or
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Petticoat. I don't even know what his name.
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I kept it in threes, but it was a battle till the end.
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But the Dookies came out on top and bit of a fade.
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The trendy dog play there with again, why was Duke the worst
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ranked team favored even with homecourt?
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Cameron Crazies helped us get that one.
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And then Denver, a low bed obscure game.
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We talked about that line move toward Denver as well as the
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fact of kind of a supplementary cap with the elevation or
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Sacramento State, if you remember, 26 feet above sea
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level, Denver Mile High. Denver rolled.
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So you love to see it. So those are our three wins.
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But our two losses, so frustrating.
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The first one, which started the night on a very rough note, was
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Baylor. Baylor, Come on, man.
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Baylor plus 3 1/2 and they lose by 4.
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But it's not that just that you had three and a half and they
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lost by 4. It's the way that they lost.
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Baylor was covering the game basically with under a second
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left. They needed a layup.
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Guy missed a free throw. There was a lane violation on
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O'meara, which was I was like, oh, this is going to rear.
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It's ugly, hadn't hurt us, which it did.
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But anyway, they score to make it a what was it?
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Make it a 2 point game. So there's a layup, you know,
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coast to coast, kid scores. Basically there's a second left,
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right, just end the game, just just leave, just walk away.
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But of course, what happens guy on Baylor commits a foul with .4
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seconds left and talk about adding insult to injury.
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But Bill Rafferty, who I love is I would argue is the best
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college announcer of probably any sport.
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But he said quote UN quote, there's a reason you have to
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shoot the free throws. He meant with no time left.
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It's the Brent Musburger reason. Now Brent Musburger, the
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legendary wise guy who I I know from working at Visen with
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Brent. Obviously this is a situation
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where, you know, calling a foul with .4 seconds left, it hurt
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us, it killed us because of course the kid goes to the other
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line and again, he could have made one in this one and we
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still cover. Of course he makes both.
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We lose by 4. And you know what I was
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thinking? Just run off the clock, don't
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foul. He could have missed the free
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throw. Nope, they call the foul, they
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shoot the free throws. Yukon wins by 4.
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So that was just a heartbreaking loss for Baylor.
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Plus 3 1/2. Again, that's betting.
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Sometimes highest to highs, lowest to lowest.
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And then the other frustrating one was USC plus six against
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Oregon. USC was winning pretty much the
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entire game. It was an ugly game, but they're
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keeping it low scoring. They're winning.
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And then right at the very end, Oregon says, you know what,
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let's put our foot on the gas and put away USC.
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Oregon ends up winning by, I believe eight points.
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So the plus 6 was a loser. And I want to say Oregon was on
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like a 24 to seven run to end the game.
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So that one hurt with USC covering pretty much the entire
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time and then committing some terrible turnovers.
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Kid had an opportunity to the meaningless 3 to cover at the
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end. Of course, didn't happen.
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But again, lose by 8 when you got a + 6, lose by 4 when you
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get a + 3 1/2 those, those both hurt.
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And even if we get one of those, that's a four in one night when
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you're up, you know, close to two 2 units.
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So of course, I'll never argue the winning night, 3 and 2 +
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0.14 units. But that's one of those nights
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where you have a winning night, but you felt like you left some
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meat on the bone. And hopefully the gambling gods
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after crushing us last night with Baylor and USC, hopefully
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they're on our side tonight. As a superstitious better than I
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am and probably you are too, I feel like every time I have a
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really bad loss or a heartbreaking bad beat,
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hopefully the gambling gods will give me a great backdoor cover
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at some point in the future. But man, that Baylor one, I just
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can't get over over that one. And of course the the guy, the
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partner of Rafferty, he said something like there's a lot of
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people in Vegas who are very interested in these free throws.
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No duh bro, it killed us. And of course the kid could have
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missed the second one. No time left, you win anyway, he
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had to make it. What are you going to do?
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Anyway, let's move on and see if we can cash some tickets for
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tonight. So let's start off with Thursday
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Night Football big match up here.
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Of course, Detroit Lions hosting the Green Bay Packers.
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Let's set the stage. Let's talk about what the
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markets doing. I'll give you my best bet for
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the side and a player prop if you're interested in sweating a
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player prop. So going to this one, Packers
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nine and three. They've won three straight, just
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dismissed the Dolphins 30 to 17 on what was that Christmas Day,
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Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, I believe or sorry, what am I
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saying here? Yeah, actually on Thanksgiving,
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wow, I'm getting all my holidays mixed up.
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I'm still thinking about, of course, Baylor screwing me up.
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But anyway, Lions, by the way, 11 and one 110 straight took
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down the Bears on Thanksgiving. 23 to 20 didn't cover though as
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a nine and a half point home favorite.
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So have we seen across the market here?
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Well, early opener for this game was Detroit listed as high as a
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six point home favorite, but we but we immediately saw that line
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get adjusted downward. The -6 got down to 5 1/2, then 4
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1/2, then 3 1/2. And now on game day, you're
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seeing basically all these Green Bay plus 3 1/2 juiced up -115
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and some books are getting down to three.
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So you might have heard me on yesterday's pod.
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I put in Green Bay plus 3 1/2 yesterday, and I'm glad I did
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because again, there's still some 3 and half's out there,
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which if you want to sweat Green Bay again, 3 is the most common
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key number. Got to get the hook, lose by
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three, you win with the hook. So you should still be able to
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find the hook. But again, juiced up, all these
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lines are continuing to move toward Green Bay.
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So I would love to again have that 3 1/2 in pocket with the
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Packers, then see this thing close at 3:00.
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That would be a great sign for Green Bay.
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But anyway, public is still taking Detroit.
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Detroit is getting 64% of spread bets at DraftKings, yet this
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line continues to go toward Green Bay.
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So that's one of our easiest indicators of smart money
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reverse line movement when public's all over Team A, but
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the line goes toward Team B. And think of it this way too.
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If everyone is betting Detroit, you know, 2/3 of bets.
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Why are the odds makers dropping that line to make it easier for
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the public to cover? Tells me we got smart money here
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on Green Bay. Green Bay is a good contrarian
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play heavily bet game, primetime game tonight, dust off that
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Amazon Prime account. Only 36% bets.
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So I want to bet against the public and all the drunk guys at
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the bar who are going yeah, just in with Detroit.
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Detroit's amazing Eminem and Detroit.
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Let's go. Even though again, I, I, I like
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the Lions too. I think they're a great story.
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But that's the public mindset. Yet the Lions go into the
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Packers at Circa, who prides itself on accepting smart money.
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Green Bay's only getting 48% of spread bets, but 67% of spread
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dollars. So nice low bets, higher
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dollars, contrarian bet split. Then we factor in some other
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angles here. Packers divisional dog built in
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familiarity, leveling the playing field, benefiting the
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team, getting points. Then some more system matches.
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Rd. divisional dogs 18 and 10 against the spread this year,
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64% and they've been pretty good consistently for a good, you
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know, five year period now since 2019, Road divisional dogs are
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175 and 132 against the spread, 57%.
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Primetime conference dogs getting three points or more.
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They're 96 and 77 ATS 56% since 2019 as well.
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Jordan Love, five and two against the spread in his career
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as a dog of three or more in Green Bay, the classic dog who
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can score system match. They're putting up nearly 27
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points a game, so again, got to keep pace with Detroit 27 a
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game. You can back to our cover
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hopefully if we need it. Hope it doesn't come to that,
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but whatever it takes. Maybe back to our cover.
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Unlike Jameis Winston, who could have back to our cover for us
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too. I don't know what it is, guys.
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Feels like the bad beats are just piling up recently.
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We're making the right calls, but the gambling gods are just
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laughing at us sometimes. Anyway, Packers are checking off
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all the boxes for me. And then to add a little angle
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here, our friends at Rhythm who do a great job of powering this
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pod and providing us with these player prop predictions and AI
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backed models. They have Green Bay plus 1.9 and
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actually about to pick them. One model I had even said Green
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Bay should be like a -, 0.8 favorite.
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So I'll take the points in this one guys.
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Contrarian and heavily backed game.
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Reverse line movement toward Green Bay Rd. divisional dog
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system matches good rhythm edge again.
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I mentioned it on yesterday's pod.
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Still holds true today. I'm on Packers plus 3 1/2 now
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for a player prop. By the way, I'll mention the
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total. I know a lot of people like the
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over tonight open 51 1/2. I saw one book that got to 52
10:45
right now, but I can't really play the over.
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It's 67% bets if the line really hasn't moved and when the total
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is 50 or more. The under is 10 and six this
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year and it's 66% since 2022. So it seems obvious over, but
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I'm not playing. It looks almost like a fishy
11:00
line freeze. So no, no total for me.
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But aside from Green Bay plus 3 1/2, we'll give you a player
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prop. Tim Patrick.
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I remember he was really good with the Broncos.
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Then he got hurt. Now he's back.
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But over 23 1/2 receiving yards. That's my plate.
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Tim Patrick over 23 1/2 now it's important you get that number
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right now it's available at FanDuel.
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But I noticed ESPN Benton Caesar's are 24 1/2 bet MGM is
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24 1/2. Caesar's and ESPN better are
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both over -115 -, 120. So again, any, any bet you make,
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shop around, get the best price, but especially player props.
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If Tim Patrick lands on 24, we want to catch the over 23.
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Now if we don't want to lose a juiced up over 24 1/2.
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But my angle here with Tim Patrick, one, he's gone over
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this number in three straight games.
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Last week, he had 48 receiving yards against the Bears.
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Packers, meanwhile, giving up 217 passing yards per game.
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That's 17th in the NFL. But in particular, last three
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games, Green Bay's giving up nearly 250 passing yards per
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game. Also, you got to think game
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playing here, Packers, if you're going to try to limit your best
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players, it's going to be Aman Ross St.
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Brown and Jameson Williams. Hopefully that provides a good,
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good, favorable matchups for Tim Patrick here, who by the way, is
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6 foot 5 veteran. He's not quick, but he's good
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possession guy. And then also game will be
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played indoors with a high total and a short spread.
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So maybe competitive, maybe you got to throw the ball.
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All bodes well for Tim Patrick. And then little cherry on top,
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our friends at Rhythm are predicting Tim Patrick with 29.2
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receiving yards. So that is about a what is that
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a six point edge there in terms of yardage?
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So I know there's a lot of great players to bet on tonight.
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You know the quarterbacks, you know I'm on Ross St.
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Brown. Green Bay has a lot of good
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offensive guys, Jacobs too. But I'm going to focus on Tim
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Patrick over 23 1/2. Can you get us a few catches
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here and get 24 or more? That's the play.
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So there's a football. Green Bay plus 3 1/2, Tim
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Patrick over 23 1/2. Those are my two bets.
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Can we at least get one of those?
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If we could get 2, that'll be even better.
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Now let's go to college hoops, see if we can get some breaks to
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go our way here for tonight. So first one, I wanted to talk
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about early game, 6:30 PM Eastern Time.
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And this is a fishy play that I love Purdue on the road at Penn
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State. This is going to be played on
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FS1 and going into it, Purdue is 7 and one ranked 8th in the
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country. Penn State is also 7:00 and
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1:00. But Penn State is not ranked.
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So who's the favorite, right? It's got to be the 8th ranked
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team over the unranked team, right?
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Nope, it's Penn State. Penn State is favored even
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though they're unranked versus the 8th ranked team.
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So right off the bat, I love this angle.
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I play this every time it pops up.
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The unranked home favorite versus ranked opponent.
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Now, in terms of just a system match, the system has been
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great. It is.
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Let's see, ATS, it's 58% since 2022.
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Straight up, it's closer to 70% since 2022.
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I got Penn State on the money line at -115 so I'm not going to
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lay a -. 1 1/2 with a knee. Lions have a win by 1.
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I lose my bet -115 is not a very expensive price at all, but I
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like this fact that it's not just a fishy kind of, you know,
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buy low, sell high play, but it's also a bit of a line
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freeze. Like Penn State opened, you know
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-1 1/2. They pretty much stayed -1 1/2.
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I know one book was at 2 and came down a little bit, but
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still the public is going with Purdue.
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Purdue is getting nearly 70% of bets.
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Public is saying take the rank, team getting points, the wrong
14:33
team is favored. No, no, no, no.
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Why is the sign still -1 1/2 Penn State?
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Why isn't it gotten down to a pick or flip to Purdue -1 1/2?
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Even though Publix all over Purdue tells me odds makers are
14:45
taking a position on the Penn State Nittany Lions so it's a
14:48
bit of a fade. The trendy dog.
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It reminds me a lot of Duke yesterday against Auburn.
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Short favorite at home that is unpopular, but also DraftKings
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only getting around 30% of bets but 62% of dollars on the
15:01
spread. Circa is 5050 tickets but 78%
15:05
dollars on the money line. So good low bets, higher dollars
15:08
bets. But there and then also some
15:11
angles here to like Penn State. They have the better effective
15:13
field goal percentage, 59% versus 58%, hopefully an
15:18
advantage on the boards, 34% offensive rebound percentage
15:21
versus 30%. They're the more experienced
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team, 2.46 years on average for their players versus 1.64 for
15:28
Purdue. And then offensively, not a dog
15:31
who can score system match, but Penn State's got the better
15:34
offense thus far, averaging 91 points a game, Purdue only 79.
15:39
They have more rebounds per game, 38 versus 35 more blocks
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and steals per game. And then little, little cherry
15:45
on top, not a huge edge, but rhythm has Penn State -1.4.
15:50
But the the metamorphosis and the the starting point for this
15:53
game is why is Penn State favored?
15:55
And why is the line still showing Penn State favored if
15:57
Purdue has the better ranking in the public's playing Purdue?
16:01
This is an auto bet for me on Penn State.
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So let's go Nittany Lions, shop around.
16:06
I got Penn State money line at -115 next one for you, Xavier
16:12
TCU. This is an 8:00 game here
16:15
tonight and this one is on. Let me dial it up here.
16:19
ESPN plus now going into it, Xavier 7 and one.
16:23
We've had a great start to the year.
16:24
On the flip side, TCU four and three winning record, but again,
16:29
not that impressive. But once again, who's favored?
16:32
It's TCU -1. So it's a very short number at
16:35
open TCU -1 I see a couple books, TCU -1 1/2 I see one book
16:40
out of pick em. So it's not a huge line move
16:42
play, but a couple reasons. Like TCU, I'm on TCU money line
16:46
by the way. I got them at minus one O 6 at
16:48
FanDuel. Shop around.
16:50
It's basically a pick em price. But a couple things like about
16:53
TCU, one, the spread bets at DraftKings, only 49% of bets,
16:59
but 88% of money is on TCU. So half the tickets, but heavy
17:03
dollars at circa 56% spread bets, 73% dollars on TCU.
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Our buddy Ken Palm has TCU winning by three.
17:13
So I like the fact that the analytics guru here, Ken Palm
17:17
actually has a little, a little more bullish on TCU than the
17:20
market. And then it's also fishy.
17:22
Why is a four and three team favored over A717 and one team
17:26
also in particular a buy low sell high.
17:28
TCU has lost three of their last four and Xavier has has won
17:33
seven of eight. So again, Xavier's playing
17:35
better. They have the better ranking or
17:38
they have the better record yet you got to apply homecourt.
17:42
But yet TCU is favored having lost three of their last four.
17:46
By the way, TCU is 4 and O at home this year.
17:48
They're only three losses were neutral court.
17:51
You know, like not those pre pre season tournament type
17:54
situations. I'm going to bank on a couple
17:57
things. Xavier.
17:58
This is their first true Rd. game, so hopefully a tough spot
18:01
to go on the road. TCU should be rocking tonight.
18:04
TCU has the better defense, defensive efficiency, 31st in
18:07
the country versus 68th, and hopefully a an advantage on the
18:12
offensive boards, 31% offensive rebound percentage versus 27%.
18:17
But basically we had TCU one point favorite.
18:20
They pretty much stayed where they're at, but we got great bet
18:23
splits on TCU from a public book DraftKings and a sharp book
18:27
Circa. We have Ken Palm TCU winning by
18:29
three and I like the fishy angle of why is a team who's only four
18:33
and three and has lost 3 or 4 still favored against Xavier.
18:36
So I'm going to back TCU baby Horned frogs.
18:40
I'm feeling I'm feeling horny tonight.
18:42
Not suitable for work. Corn frogs that is.
18:45
Hide the kids anyway. Scratch that but money line
18:48
minus one O 6 TCU. Let's win the damn game now.
18:53
Another 8:00 game, but a very low bed obscure game.
18:56
I know you guys woke up today on a Thursday football night and
18:59
said you know what, I can't wait to sweat the East Texas A&M
19:03
Lions against the Houston Christian Huskies.
19:06
I know that was the number one game you had on your radar, but
19:09
again, add a game extra game 8:00 tonight.
19:12
ESPN Plus game 306-5935, 933-0659 four.
19:18
What do we always talk about? Low bet obscure games that the
19:20
public doesn't care anything about, can't even find on their
19:23
app. But we but we're noticing line
19:25
movement because again, these are the games that the public
19:27
doesn't care about. But wise guys have specifically
19:29
targeted. And wise guys don't care if
19:31
it's, you know, if it's TCU or if it's, you know, Penn State,
19:36
Purdue or East Texas, Houston Christian.
19:38
They just care that they have an edge and they're going to play
19:41
their number. So one thing I like about this
19:44
one or a lot of things I like, but the first starting point is
19:47
a line move toward Houston Christian.
19:49
I'm on Houston Christian money line.
19:50
I got them at -160 they open at -1 1/2.
19:54
They're all the way up to -3 and I see one book even -3 1/2.
19:57
So with this tiny little added extra game, we're seeing line
20:01
movement. Now, I forgot to mention, these
20:02
are two terrible teams. East Texas is one and seven.
20:05
Houston Christian is 2 and 6. So not only is it a tiny little
20:09
game that no one wants to play, but it's two bad teams of the
20:11
public. Even if they were to have this
20:13
as a regular, you know, 3 digit NSS Vegas ID rotation number
20:17
game, they still probably wouldn't want to play it. 2 bad
20:19
teams. Who wants to bet on two bad
20:20
teams? However?
20:22
Line move toward Houston Christian -1 1/2 to -3 Ken Palm
20:27
has Houston Christian winning by three.
20:29
Rhythm has Houston Christian -2.9 and -2.8.
20:32
My two models for this, one, slightly better ranking, Houston
20:36
Christian, I told you they were bad.
20:38
Ken Palms got him 349 in the country versus 352 for East
20:42
Texas. But then a couple other angles
20:44
here. The one big or two big
20:46
differences that I found. Turnover percentage.
20:49
When you are on offense, do you take care of the ball or do you
20:52
cough it up? Turnover percentage is pretty
20:55
good for Houston Christian. They're 52nd in the country.
20:58
But for East Texas A&M, they cough it up a lot.
21:02
One reason or among many why they're a really bad team.
21:05
But they rank 361 in the country and turning it over, that means
21:09
they turn it over a lot. Now they're on the road.
21:12
So another reason why I like Houston Christian here, but also
21:14
free throw percentage. Maybe we got to sweat this one
21:17
out. It feels like all of our games
21:18
are sweats nowadays unless we get a nice Creighton rocking
21:21
chair play. But free throw shooting, 70%
21:25
Houston Christian pretty good, only 59% for East Texas.
21:29
So if this becomes a tight game, let's get the Huskies to hit
21:32
their their free throws, the Lions here hopefully to miss
21:35
theirs. Then also experience nothing
21:38
crazy, but one point O six years average experience for Houston
21:43
East Texas .62. So a lot of freshmen, a lot of
21:46
transfers. I want to bet against East
21:48
Texas. I want to play Houston Christian
21:50
as the lesser of two evils play. So give me Houston Christian
21:55
again, a team that you probably didn't even have never, maybe
21:57
never heard of, but they look sharp tonight.
22:00
So I'm going to play them in a sharp low bed.
22:02
Obscure line move can be Houston Christian money line.
22:05
I got a -, 160 at Bet MGM. Now to finish up a couple late
22:09
games on the West Coast, first one Cal Poly and UC Davis.
22:14
Now going into this one, we have Cal Poly five and four, UC Davis
22:19
3 and 4. But once again, sharp move
22:22
toward the home team. Give me UC Davis in this one,
22:24
guys. UC Davis opened as low as -1
22:27
1/2. You never bet up to -2 -, 2 1/2.
22:30
It's a late 9:00 game. ESPN Plus and the, you know,
22:34
it's not an added extra game, but it's a low bet late game.
22:37
West Coast, where the lines going toward UC Davis.
22:40
Now Ken Palm is UC Davis winning by two.
22:42
But our friends at Rhythm have UC Davis -3.1, so good Rhythm
22:47
edge there. At least Ken Palm's got a
22:49
winning the game. I got UC Davis on the money line
22:52
at -140 it's a bit of a buy low, sell high because Cal Poly has
22:57
one, two straight and UC Davis has lost two straight.
23:00
So even though Cal Poly has the better record and his one, two
23:02
straight, they're the dog here tonight.
23:04
Doesn't that sound fishy? And the lines going toward UC
23:07
Davis, who was only three and four and has lost two straight.
23:10
So hopefully it's a good bounce back spot here for UC Davis as
23:14
the line move is telling us also UC Davis defensive efficiency.
23:19
Hopefully they can, you know, put the clamps on Cal Poly.
23:22
They rank 112 in the country in defensive efficiency versus 216
23:26
for Cal Poly. And then another experience edge
23:29
UC Davis more, more, you know, junior seniors, 1.55 years of
23:34
experience versus 0.95 for Cal Poly.
23:37
But again, late game low bet. We got a line move, we got a
23:41
system play. We got some good edges here in
23:44
terms of UC Davis defensively and experience.
23:47
I'm going to go UC Davis to win the damn game.
23:50
I'm not laying at two 2 1/2 going money line -140 just win
23:54
the game. Let's go UC Davis, the Aggies,
23:58
then last play of the night. Staying on the West Coast here,
24:01
let's talk UC San Diego and UC Santa Barbara. 2 good teams.
24:06
San Diego is 6 and 2, the Tritons, Santa Barbara six and
24:09
one, the Gauchos. But what are we seeing here?
24:12
Another low, bad, obscure game where the line is going toward
24:15
the home team. Give me Santa Barbara here guys.
24:18
Santa Barbara opened as a 1 1/2 point home favorite.
24:21
We've not seen Santa Barbara get bet up to -2 1/2 and I see one
24:25
book even inching up toward -3 Couple reasons to like Santa
24:29
Barbara. Now Ken Palm only has Santa
24:31
Barbara winning by one, but our friends at rhythm -3.4 for Santa
24:35
Barbara, so that's coinciding with the line move in their
24:38
favor. Better offensive efficiency 97th
24:41
versus one O 4th. Nothing huge, but an advantage,
24:46
but a lot of other advantages here offensively in particular,
24:48
effective field goal percentage, 59% for the Gauchos, only 52%
24:54
for UC San Diego. Offensive rebound percentage,
24:57
33% versus 25%. three-point shooting, 39% versus 36%.
25:03
Free throws again, could be big in a tight game, 75% versus 68%.
25:09
More experience, 2.34 years versus 1.13 more rebounds per
25:14
game. Typically when you win the
25:16
rebound battle, you win the game. 40A game versus 34 for San
25:19
Diego. And I noticed that DraftKings
25:22
really good money line split 71% of money line bets but 87% of
25:27
money line dollars. So you add it all up.
25:29
Let's go UC Santa Barbara to win the damn game on the money line.
25:33
I got a -, 150 at Caesars, so 5 pack overall.
25:36
Can we get three or more UC Santa Barbara money line?
25:40
UC Davis money line, Houston Christian money line, TCU money
25:45
line, and Penn State money line. Again, a lot of sweats lined up
25:49
for tonight. Let's get after it.
25:51
So how about does it for episode 176 of the ASG pod as I still
25:56
can't get over losing Baylor. And then of course, late night
25:59
USC. Totally forgot muscleman coach
26:03
at USC. Actually really liked him when
26:04
he was with Arkansas. Let me down last night.
26:06
But anyway, got to let it go, Josh, got to let it go.
26:10
Although it's funny, you have a winning night, but you just
26:12
focus on the the ones that really hurt when they lost.
26:15
But anyway, finishing up the pod, this is the portion of the
26:18
pod where first, I thank you for taking the time out of your day
26:21
to listen to the podcast, to pull up a chair to the virtual
26:25
bar, sweat sharp and train play plays and breakdowns with me.
26:28
It means a lot that you have busy lives and yet you, you
26:31
know, put a find a way to put 30 minutes to to grind some plays
26:34
with me. So thank you, of course.
26:36
And then secondly, now that I thank you, I'm going to ask a
26:39
favor of you. If you enjoy the pod, if you're
26:41
listening to my voice, if I hopefully provided you some good
26:44
insights over 175 pods and a lot more before that, then please do
26:49
me one big favor, do me a solid. Could you please give this
26:52
podcast a five star review on Spotify or iTunes, Go to rate
26:56
and review five stars. Boom, you're done.
26:59
And I mean, it would mean a lot to me just so that we can
27:01
continue to rise up the ratings, the charts, gain more listens
27:06
and hopefully reach more, you know, regular public bettors who
27:10
hopefully can get turned on to data-driven betting and increase
27:12
their win percentage. That's always my goal here.
27:15
But please, a five star review would mean a lot.
27:18
If you want to click a fault the follow button, that would be
27:20
great. You'll get alerted as soon as it
27:21
drops in your library each day. Also, if you want to recommend
27:24
it to a friend, word of mouth is great too.
27:27
Secondly, if you enjoy these breakdowns, which are of course
27:30
free and you want to learn more about data-driven betting or
27:33
just let me know you appreciate the pod.
27:35
Guess what? I have a great idea to let me
27:37
know you appreciate the pod. You can go buy my book.
27:40
I wrote a book. That's right.
27:41
Just go to Amazon.com and type in the everything guide to
27:44
sports betting. Pick up a copy for you or a
27:46
friend or a colleague or Co worker, family member, whoever.
27:50
But it would make a great stocking stuffer as we're
27:53
getting into the holiday season here.
27:54
It's less than 20 bucks. Hopefully people will find it a
27:57
little more interesting and hopefully make you some money
27:59
versus just you know, a pair of pair of khakis, a pair of you
28:04
know, boxers or socks or whatever you usually get for the
28:07
holidays. And maybe you probably never
28:09
wear them or you wear them anyway.
28:10
But the everything guy to sports betting, you can turn that into
28:12
buying hopefully 100 pairs of socks because it's got
28:15
everything I've learned in the industry, how lines are set, how
28:17
and why they move, how to read line movement, how to locate
28:20
sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
28:23
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan all
28:26
included in the everything guide to sports betting.
28:29
Next, have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial of juice
28:31
reel or rhythm yet? Well, if you haven't, now is the
28:34
time to do it. Rhythm is a great resource here
28:37
for looking at AI backed models and predictions for game bets
28:40
and player props. Again, what other company is
28:43
going to give you, you know, breakdowns and and and
28:46
predictions for UC Davis and Houston Christian.
28:49
It's a great resource for all sports.
28:52
Also with juice Reel, you can always find the best bet picks
28:55
from the ASG pod on juice reel. It costs 499 a week, but think
29:00
of it as a cup of coffee and maybe a tip jar.
29:02
If you enjoy the pod again, sign up for the best bets.
29:04
You'll get them earlier in the day, hopefully get better
29:06
numbers and you can use it as a way to let me know you
29:09
appreciate the pod. But all you got to do is click
29:11
that link that I tweet out every day at Josh under score insights
29:15
is my Twitter. You can also go to the social
29:17
tab, go to go to find juicers and type in ASG under score
29:22
podcast and you can click follow there as well.
29:24
But not just following the ASG best bets on juice reel.
29:26
You can also get the Royal Jackson best bet picks each day
29:30
delivered by the AI backed model.
29:32
You can also get arbitrage opportunities following the risk
29:35
ratios guaranteeing a profit sharp mush indicators as well as
29:39
shopping for the best line of for futures, which I think is a
29:41
great resource for juice reel as well.
29:44
But please go sign up and download the juice reel and
29:46
rhythm apps You'll be off and running.
29:48
They help me win. I'm confident they'll help you
29:51
win. Of course that about does it for
29:53
today's pod. I'll leave you with a couple
29:54
things. First, whether I see you at the
29:57
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook
30:00
in New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut
30:03
at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM
30:06
Springfield. In my neck of the woods in
30:08
Massachusetts. Out in the desert where the true
30:10
grinders get down, where Billy Walters sends his number
30:12
runners, where the lowest juice possible is found.
30:15
The South Point or Sweat and Sharp can train plays jumping in
30:17
the stadium swimming pool when he cash a big ticket or trying
30:21
to drown yourself when you lose a Baylor Plus 3 1/2 at Circa at
30:25
stadium swim, wherever it may be.
30:27
You're going to walk up to me. Let's, let's not, let's not kill
30:30
ourselves too much because we did have a winning night.
30:32
But show me a Duke ticket, a Creighton ticket, a Denver
30:35
ticket. But please, Baylor, USC, don't
30:38
make me more, more more annoyed than I was last night.
30:41
But guess what? First one's on me.
30:43
Next one's on you. We're going to post about the
30:44
book sweatshop contrarian place all night long.
30:48
So have a great Thirsty Thursday, everybody.
30:50
Of course, I'll leave you with this.
30:52
Whether we're three and two, two and three, five and OO and five,
30:56
don't always fixate on the record, fixate on the process.
30:59
If we can continue to bet games with our head and not our heart,
31:01
by reading the market, by picking up on the context clues
31:04
that the market provides us, by going against the public with
31:07
the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that
31:11
closing line value. If we can do that long term,
31:13
yes, they'll be bad beats. They'll be epic backdoor covers,
31:17
but if we can consistently stay in that lane, sharp contrarian
31:20
data-driven bats system matches again, if we can do that long
31:24
term, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
31:26
I'm sure of that. So have a great Thirsty
31:28
Thursday, everybody. We will be back at it tomorrow
31:31
for a big Friday edition of the ASG pod.
31:34
That'll be episode 177. And right now I'm looking at the
31:37
UFC line movement here. I got a couple biters that are
31:41
on my radar, but once I get that e-mail from my buddy John Ewing
31:44
at BET MGM bright and early Friday morning, hopefully I'll
31:48
have a biting play for you on tomorrow's pod.
31:51
But either way guys, enjoy your Thirsty Thursday.
31:53
Have a great night. 7 pack again, you got your 6 pack, pick
31:57
up a nip. I'll take that out, that
31:59
fireball shot. Let's see if we can get four or
32:01
more tonight. Good luck everybody, have a
32:03
great night and I'll see you tomorrow.