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Super Bowl Betting Trends · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites, the
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Speaker 1: podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Mellman,
1:45
Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Folks, we are
1:51
Speaker 1: ten days away from the Bengals and the Rams in
1:55
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Simon Hunter, my bff, my companion in
2:00
Speaker 1: Mike and Padre professional better brother. We talked about it
2:06
Speaker 1: on Tuesday. This line is moving. It's now Rams four
2:11
Speaker 1: and a half before we bring in our very very
2:15
Speaker 1: special guest, who most people should know because I quote
2:19
Speaker 1: him every single week. On the podcast. I'm not going
2:23
Speaker 1: to name him yet before we get to that. Simon Hunter,
2:27
Speaker 1: I can't believe the lines at four and a half
2:29
Speaker 1: and I bet at Bengals plus four. Weve bed Bengals
2:32
Speaker 1: three and a half. I mean, oh my god, this
2:34
Speaker 1: line is running chat. We'll probably dive more into it
2:36
Speaker 1: next week, but as you sit here today, I can
2:38
Speaker 1: tell you it had a ten sharp calls. They were
2:41
Speaker 1: on the Rams. They love the Rams. People on the
2:45
Speaker 1: Bengals is just a hedge position. They have a future
2:48
Speaker 1: on the Rams, and they're just taking the four and
2:50
Speaker 1: a half, taking the four with Cincinnati and just a
2:52
Speaker 1: hedge position. So it's interesting now where I'm starting to
2:56
Speaker 1: look at the numbers and hear what other books are doing.
2:58
Speaker 1: It sounds like it's a public dog in the Bengals.
3:02
Speaker 1: The public loves the Bengals and the professionals love the Ramps.
3:05
Speaker 1: So it's definitely interesting we break it down next week
3:08
Speaker 1: to see where this line ends up, because I honestly
3:10
Speaker 1: can see it touch in five that just the professional
3:13
Speaker 1: money and the pros I've talked to, they're just gonna
3:15
Speaker 1: keep taking this number up. They think this number should
3:17
Speaker 1: be six. I told you I had the number at three.
3:20
Speaker 1: That's that's really rare. I'm off by three points to
3:23
Speaker 1: other professionals, so it's it's definitely keep moving. In my opinion,
3:26
Speaker 1: I don't think it's gonna stop here four and a half.
3:28
Speaker 1: But we've seen we've seen it just sit here now
3:31
Speaker 1: for a day and a half at four and a half. Wow,
3:34
Speaker 1: this is gonna be so uncomfortable. For the next few days,
3:39
Speaker 1: we will get deeper into sharp calls. Normally will do
3:41
Speaker 1: sharp calls on Thursday, which is the response that the
3:44
Speaker 1: professional betters we know have to what we talked about
3:47
Speaker 1: on Tuesday, and we'll get deeper into that next week.
3:51
Speaker 1: We will have two podcasts next week. We will have
3:54
Speaker 1: Chris Raybon and Sean Kerner the co host with Simon
3:57
Speaker 1: and I on Convince Me, our Sunday morning preview show.
4:01
Speaker 1: They will be breaking down all of the Super Bowl
4:03
Speaker 1: props with us. We will have our show on Thursday
4:06
Speaker 1: where Simon and I go deep, deep, deep into the
4:08
Speaker 1: game and we had the entire two weeks to examine it.
4:10
Speaker 1: We have both made early bets on the Bengals thinking
4:13
Speaker 1: the line was going to go the other way, so
4:15
Speaker 1: we're a little disappointed in that it time to introduce
4:17
Speaker 1: our very special guests. He is one of the original
4:22
Speaker 1: Action Network superstars. He is the co host of just
4:26
Speaker 1: about every podcast we do on the Action Network, including
4:31
Speaker 1: our Big Bets on Campus podcast. During the football season,
4:35
Speaker 1: that's college football. Now, it's basketball season, it's Stucky, It's
4:40
Speaker 1: the Boys from three Man. We've it's a whole cavalcade
4:44
Speaker 1: of superstars. You can check out the Big Bets on
4:46
Speaker 1: Campus podcast if you're Jones. In for some more betting
4:49
Speaker 1: action for college basketball, you can check out the Buckets
4:52
Speaker 1: podcast on the Action Network if you're Jones and for
4:55
Speaker 1: more NBA betting, the Prime Minister of the Genera Nation, Stucky,
5:01
Speaker 1: let's going on. Thanks for having me. I will say
5:04
Speaker 1: that what you guys are talking about, you guys can
5:06
Speaker 1: hope that history continues in the Super Bowl in that
5:11
Speaker 1: in the Super Bowls, the straight up winner has gone
5:14
Speaker 1: forty seven six and two against the spread forty six
5:18
Speaker 1: and two. The last twelve Super Bowl winners have also
5:22
Speaker 1: covered the spread. The last favorite to win and not
5:24
Speaker 1: cover was the Steelers back in two thousand nine. They
5:27
Speaker 1: were six and a half point favorites against the Cardinals
5:29
Speaker 1: in that really thrilling super Bowl. There's been twenty eight
5:33
Speaker 1: Super Bowls that have had a line of six points
5:36
Speaker 1: or less in all the winner also covered, fourteen underdogs
5:41
Speaker 1: have one outright, and fourteen favorites have won and covered.
5:45
Speaker 1: And you set a public dog and this is surprising.
5:47
Speaker 1: Super Bowl public money can't matter because everyone is betting,
5:50
Speaker 1: and everyone's mom, uncle and and those bets will tend
5:54
Speaker 1: to come in closer to kick. You know, most casual
5:56
Speaker 1: betters aren't betting the Super Bowl two weeks before the game.
5:59
Speaker 1: But for what it's worth, public sides in the Super
6:03
Speaker 1: Bowl or nine and nine straight up and ten and
6:05
Speaker 1: eight against the spread in the Super Bowl since two
6:09
Speaker 1: thousand four. So those are some things that might give
6:12
Speaker 1: you some comfort with your Bengals position that has gone
6:15
Speaker 1: the other way. I have no comfort from any of this, Stucky,
6:18
Speaker 1: I am gonna be uncomfortable for the next two weeks.
6:22
Speaker 1: But I like that you kicked it off thematically because
6:25
Speaker 1: you're on the show today every single Thursday. Here's my
6:28
Speaker 1: morning ritual. I've talked about this on the podcast before
6:31
Speaker 1: I'll get up in the morning. That's the day Like
6:33
Speaker 1: I don't exercise that morning. I block Thursdays out, maybe
6:38
Speaker 1: I'll drive my kid to school. I listened to you
6:41
Speaker 1: and Chris Raybon on the Action Network podcast. I'll take
6:44
Speaker 1: a shipload of notes, and you always have the most
6:47
Speaker 1: amazing stature. You're going too bet Labs. You do a
6:50
Speaker 1: lot of research, You figure out a lot of things
6:52
Speaker 1: that sort of look at trends and angles and whatever.
6:54
Speaker 1: So this podcast is entirely about what are the trends
6:56
Speaker 1: and angles that we're seeing for this Super Bowl. But
6:59
Speaker 1: before we get to, let me ask you, do you
7:01
Speaker 1: have a lean on this game at this point? Yeah?
7:03
Speaker 1: I would lean as of right now the Bengals and
7:05
Speaker 1: anything I make it like Simon right around three. So
7:09
Speaker 1: I wasn't running to bet it because I wanted to
7:11
Speaker 1: see where the line would go and try and get
7:14
Speaker 1: a sense for that. And then it looked like there
7:17
Speaker 1: were signs that it might pick up. You want to
7:19
Speaker 1: get the four and a half before it goes to
7:21
Speaker 1: four if you want the Bengals. But you know, if
7:23
Speaker 1: it goes up to five five and a half, it's
7:26
Speaker 1: it's kind of a dead range. And then the next
7:27
Speaker 1: step would be when it go to six. I don't
7:29
Speaker 1: think that it will, but so I'm kind of in waiting, Semde,
7:32
Speaker 1: but I would agree with your sentiment there. The I
7:37
Speaker 1: think one of the most interesting aspects of this Super
7:40
Speaker 1: Bowl in particular is that the Rams are hosting it.
7:44
Speaker 1: So what do you make home field advantage? And you know,
7:48
Speaker 1: do you make it? Nothing? Right? Home field advantage has
7:50
Speaker 1: been diminishing over time anyway, the Rams, the Rams have
7:54
Speaker 1: a great home field and the tickets are like five
7:56
Speaker 1: million dollars a pieces. It's just gonna be you know,
7:58
Speaker 1: it's usually a corporate event anyway, So what is that
8:01
Speaker 1: worth and is it worth one? Is it worth two
8:03
Speaker 1: points that could make the difference in someone's decision. I
8:06
Speaker 1: tend to think it's worth like a half point or so.
8:09
Speaker 1: The Ramsta familiarity, I think that you know, Bick, they
8:11
Speaker 1: having coach in the Super Bowl fore matters for preparation,
8:14
Speaker 1: avoiding the distractions and things of that nature. That it's
8:17
Speaker 1: actually only the second time a team has hosted a
8:21
Speaker 1: Super Bowl in its home state. And you know the
8:23
Speaker 1: other temp and Bay Buccaneers you better got you better
8:26
Speaker 1: gotten that. So by the way, Brady Brady, Tom Brady
8:29
Speaker 1: is no longer than the NFL. He's no long He's
8:31
Speaker 1: not playing in this game. He's played an eighteen percent
8:34
Speaker 1: of all Super Bowls, and since two thousand of ten,
8:36
Speaker 1: there's only been six Super Bowls without Tom Brady. Underdogs
8:39
Speaker 1: have gone four and too straight up in those games.
8:42
Speaker 1: So we have we have some we have some new blood,
8:44
Speaker 1: which is nice in this game. I already missed Tom Brady. Simon,
8:49
Speaker 1: what do we want to know from Stucky? Do you
8:51
Speaker 1: have any stupid trends? Like I love stupid trends for
8:53
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. The stupidest one I heard so far
8:55
Speaker 1: was the last seventeen years, the team that wears white's
8:59
Speaker 1: twelve and five against the spread. That's my favorite dumb
9:03
Speaker 1: thing I heard. Because people are going crazy about the
9:05
Speaker 1: Bengals selecting the All Blacks. I would love to hear
9:08
Speaker 1: if you've got any crazy trends that you like to
9:10
Speaker 1: play off of. Wait, have they en the all blacks
9:12
Speaker 1: for the Super Bowl? They announced that Bengals wearing black
9:15
Speaker 1: rams are gone white. Well, it's interesting enough. The Bengals
9:20
Speaker 1: are the home team in the Super Bowl, even though
9:22
Speaker 1: it's in the Ram Stadium. They just the home team.
9:25
Speaker 1: Just wrote just alternate student FC and NFC each year.
9:28
Speaker 1: That means they get to pick their uniforms, so they
9:30
Speaker 1: went with all black. Last year the Bucks went with
9:32
Speaker 1: their whites because they had six so much success on
9:35
Speaker 1: the road, which was interesting. And then they the road
9:38
Speaker 1: team gets to call the coin toss. Doesn't matter, no,
9:40
Speaker 1: but it's interesting. Stupid trends. What interesting thing is the
9:44
Speaker 1: team that scores last. It has just dominated super Bowls
9:49
Speaker 1: like they You never see it. You never see a
9:51
Speaker 1: back door that you know, scored last in the Super Bowl.
9:54
Speaker 1: You might see some props and there's one of the
9:55
Speaker 1: last twelve Super Bowls. There's not a lot of comebacks
9:59
Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl, and Joe Barrow has been like
10:01
Speaker 1: the comeback King and the playoffs and all season long.
10:04
Speaker 1: But since the first Super Bowl in nineteen sixty seven,
10:08
Speaker 1: there's been only four teams that overcame double digit deficits
10:11
Speaker 1: to win. Two of them obviously feature Tom Brady, one
10:14
Speaker 1: over the Falcons and in overtime, and then one over
10:17
Speaker 1: Seattle the Malcolm Butler interception game. And the other two
10:21
Speaker 1: were the Saints over the Colts and Washington over Denver
10:27
Speaker 1: back in nineteen So yeah, there's there's not a lot
10:30
Speaker 1: of comebacks in the Super Bowl. So getting off to
10:33
Speaker 1: a fast start will be important, but there also hasn't
10:36
Speaker 1: been fast starts. And if you I don't know if
10:38
Speaker 1: it's nerves or what, one of my favorite things he's
10:40
Speaker 1: touching on is there'll be more points in the second half.
10:43
Speaker 1: I've done that every guy I've been on the Super Bowl,
10:45
Speaker 1: I always bet the overfield goal props in the first
10:48
Speaker 1: half and then more points second half. Last year is
10:50
Speaker 1: a little bit of flukey. Tom Brady came out, put
10:52
Speaker 1: up about twenty four points in the first half and
10:55
Speaker 1: there was no points the rest of the game. But
10:56
Speaker 1: like Stucky's touching on, usually these both teams started slow
11:00
Speaker 1: and then once they come on the second half, that's
11:01
Speaker 1: when they put up all the points. There hasn't been
11:03
Speaker 1: a score in the first six minutes of the last
11:06
Speaker 1: five Super Bowls. So if you like the over and
11:08
Speaker 1: you think, I don't know if it's nerves or what,
11:10
Speaker 1: you would think that teams have like a really good
11:12
Speaker 1: script in coming out. But we've seen the last five
11:14
Speaker 1: Super Bowls be scorels to the first six minutes. Here's
11:16
Speaker 1: some stupid trends for you. And the team that wins
11:18
Speaker 1: a coin toss has lost seven consecutive Super Bowls for whatever,
11:23
Speaker 1: that's where the safety. Some of you are gonna bet safety.
11:26
Speaker 1: Probably shouldn't because there's not much value in it. But
11:28
Speaker 1: if you're convinced there's going to be a safety here,
11:30
Speaker 1: I mean the Rams pin the Bengals deep and Donald
11:34
Speaker 1: gets through. Hasn't hitten seven straight Super Bowls, but a
11:37
Speaker 1: hit in three straight before that, And that's when safety
11:40
Speaker 1: was all the rage. You know, people hit it and
11:42
Speaker 1: then hit it again. In sports books were getting burned
11:44
Speaker 1: by that. Um There's also been four straight Super Bowls
11:46
Speaker 1: without a defensive or special teams touchdown the end, we
11:49
Speaker 1: can get an m v P two on. M v
11:51
Speaker 1: P is a really interesting market this year because and
11:55
Speaker 1: if you look back, thirty one quarterbacks have won it.
11:58
Speaker 1: Ten defensive players and then I think seven and receivers
12:00
Speaker 1: and seven running backs. But the m v P is
12:04
Speaker 1: it really I think this is one of the most
12:05
Speaker 1: interesting m VP markets because you have stars on the
12:08
Speaker 1: defensive end, right, so there's gonna be a there's gear.
12:10
Speaker 1: I have people talking about Aaron Donald and the offensive line.
12:13
Speaker 1: So if it's a really low scoring game and Donald
12:16
Speaker 1: makes makes a play, who knows he could get it.
12:18
Speaker 1: But you also have you know, you have quarterbacks are
12:20
Speaker 1: always gonna be the favorites, but you also have like
12:22
Speaker 1: two star receivers who could dominate yards and touchdowns. So
12:26
Speaker 1: what would Chase have to do? What would Cop have
12:29
Speaker 1: to do to take the m v P from the quarterback? Right?
12:33
Speaker 1: It might be three touchdowns, it might be two hundred yards.
12:36
Speaker 1: So the the you know, the problem with the m
12:39
Speaker 1: v P if you want to go defensive players, but
12:41
Speaker 1: there's been more defensive players than wide receivers, has been
12:43
Speaker 1: more defensive players than running backs. Is trying to pick
12:46
Speaker 1: which defensive player it is. Von Miller, by the way,
12:49
Speaker 1: has one of one of the super mbps. He's in
12:51
Speaker 1: this game as well. So there's storylines abound, and but
12:53
Speaker 1: a lot of times they're just random guys, right like
12:56
Speaker 1: Dexter Jackson, Malcolm Smith, or you gonna pick six, you
12:59
Speaker 1: geta you get a cup of fubble recoveries, Larry Brown,
13:03
Speaker 1: Larry Brown. But in two thousand fifteen and two thousand eighteen,
13:07
Speaker 1: the kind of the longest super super m VP odds
13:09
Speaker 1: we've seen from a winner Julian Edelman and Von Miller,
13:13
Speaker 1: they were at about twenty five the one odds. These
13:16
Speaker 1: random defensive players that you might maybe sports books are
13:19
Speaker 1: offering a lot more now, like when Malcolm Smith wanted
13:21
Speaker 1: in two thousand thirteen, he was just part of the field.
13:23
Speaker 1: But in eleven of the last fifteen Super Bowls, the
13:26
Speaker 1: pregame odds of the m v P were under five
13:29
Speaker 1: to one. And as I said, ten defensive players thirty
13:32
Speaker 1: one quarterbacks. You could pretty much throw out running backs
13:35
Speaker 1: these days, So I would take some kind of special
13:37
Speaker 1: effort for running back to win in today's NFL. You know, Dear,
13:40
Speaker 1: you think back to Terrell Davis. That's like when the
13:43
Speaker 1: peak of the running backs winning SUPERO m VP was
13:46
Speaker 1: back in the in the nineties. You're most likely options
13:49
Speaker 1: are going to be who won, and then if they
13:51
Speaker 1: wanted Stafford, the Rams one Barrow, banks On or did
13:55
Speaker 1: one of these receivers specifically cup End or Chase just
13:59
Speaker 1: completely dominate the game. What are the trends that you
14:02
Speaker 1: have in front of you right now that you feel
14:06
Speaker 1: like you can reliably bet versus trends that are interesting
14:12
Speaker 1: but not necessarily markers. There's not a trend that's gonna
14:17
Speaker 1: push me one way or the other. And if you
14:19
Speaker 1: look like this is the most bet on game of
14:22
Speaker 1: the year, it's gonna be and it's at the end
14:24
Speaker 1: of the year. We have data, what is it, twenty
14:27
Speaker 1: games now of data on these teams. This is as
14:30
Speaker 1: efficient of a ligne as you're gonna see whatever team
14:34
Speaker 1: you like, bet them. It's like, like I said before,
14:37
Speaker 1: public sides tenan eight against the spreads and two thousand
14:40
Speaker 1: four And if you look at super Bowl history, the
14:42
Speaker 1: favorites or thirty five and twenty straight up, but they're
14:44
Speaker 1: twenty seven and two against the spread. God, and how
14:49
Speaker 1: about over unders. There was no total set for Super
14:52
Speaker 1: Bowl one, but since then have gone over, have gone under,
14:57
Speaker 1: and one has been a push. So you can see
14:58
Speaker 1: how efficient this is. And for the most part, almost
15:02
Speaker 1: every time and the line is under six points, the
15:04
Speaker 1: winner covers. Now, it doesn't mean it's gonna have forever refort.
15:07
Speaker 1: We're maybe we're due for a favorite to win by
15:09
Speaker 1: a field goal. And then mainly it's just figuring out
15:12
Speaker 1: where is this line gonna go. If I had a guest,
15:14
Speaker 1: it would probably it's probably gonna close right right around here.
15:17
Speaker 1: The trends that mean that most to me are just
15:20
Speaker 1: at how efficient the Super Bowl line is, which makes
15:22
Speaker 1: all the sense in the world from there, it's just
15:24
Speaker 1: breaking down the matchup on the field between two quarterbacks
15:29
Speaker 1: who have ever been there before. And Barrow is the
15:32
Speaker 1: quickest number one overall draft pick to make the Super Bowl.
15:36
Speaker 1: He's only twenty five years old. We have seen three
15:39
Speaker 1: future Hall of Fame quarterbacks win the Super Bowl before
15:41
Speaker 1: the twenty fifth birthday. You want to try to guess them.
15:44
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes yep. And Roethlisberger yep. Twenty three has been
15:49
Speaker 1: Mahomes is twenty four. Yep, he was twenty four twenty
15:53
Speaker 1: years ago. Today. Here's here's one more. This is the
15:56
Speaker 1: second time in NFL history where we've had only second
16:00
Speaker 1: time I was surprised by this where we've had to
16:04
Speaker 1: number one overall draft pick quarterbacks face off in the
16:08
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. What was the other who were Who were
16:11
Speaker 1: the quarterbacks? It's not the Jared Goff, Tom Brady, and
16:16
Speaker 1: it's not any Russell Wilson was in. It's Peyton Camp
16:20
Speaker 1: there you go, Wow, Yeah, I watched a little football
16:24
Speaker 1: and this is I don't know who out there. Maybe
16:26
Speaker 1: you guys have heard from listeners who has a Bengal
16:29
Speaker 1: Super Bowl ticket, But Bengal Bengals Rams Super Bowl, and
16:32
Speaker 1: preseason that matchup would have paid five to one preseason
16:37
Speaker 1: odds to win the Super Bowl. The Rams are twelve
16:38
Speaker 1: to one. The Bengals were a hundred and fifty to one.
16:42
Speaker 1: The Bengals a hundred and fifty to one odds were
16:45
Speaker 1: tied with the nineteen nine Rams, which is interesting. It's right,
16:54
Speaker 1: you're already wrong. You're wrong. What Rams were two hundred
16:58
Speaker 1: to one? Well, that's this is just a bet MGM
17:02
Speaker 1: and the Bengals. The Bengals at some places. So the
17:06
Speaker 1: things are these are the two longest shots, uh since
17:12
Speaker 1: which is what we have the data to Yeah, they
17:13
Speaker 1: were both a hundo up to two one. So the
17:16
Speaker 1: question is is uh Joe Burrown Company the next greatest show? Look,
17:23
Speaker 1: that is interesting, right, Obviously I'm sensitive to the Rams storyline.
17:28
Speaker 1: I know it because you know in my best selling book,
17:31
Speaker 1: The Odds, I was in Vegas for that thousand season
17:36
Speaker 1: and I was embedded with our good friend Bob Scucci
17:40
Speaker 1: at the Stardust Sports Book and I just remember them
17:45
Speaker 1: sweating to death the Rams run through the season and
17:50
Speaker 1: the fact they had taken two or three bets for
17:53
Speaker 1: a thousand bucks on the Rams at two one, and
17:56
Speaker 1: that they knew it was the Super Bowl and they
18:00
Speaker 1: weren't going to make any money on the Super Bowl
18:03
Speaker 1: if the Rams won, because the payout on those futures
18:05
Speaker 1: was going to be so big, the liability was huge.
18:08
Speaker 1: They couldn't make it back in any way. They couldn't
18:10
Speaker 1: favor the Rams or Titans enough on either side to
18:15
Speaker 1: get them the money they needed to make up the liability,
18:18
Speaker 1: and they couldn't actually be reckless with the line because
18:22
Speaker 1: they were wrong. Then their liability doubled. And I remember
18:24
Speaker 1: all the books after that sort of very specifically changed
18:28
Speaker 1: the changed the limits they would take on those futures bets,
18:33
Speaker 1: because all of a sudden it became like, wait a second,
18:37
Speaker 1: can this happen again? So instead of getting a thousand
18:39
Speaker 1: dollars down, you're getting a hundred dollars down on two
18:41
Speaker 1: order to one. But even so, you know, Simon, we
18:45
Speaker 1: talked about the Bengals that tend to want to win
18:47
Speaker 1: the a f C. North. None of us thought about
18:50
Speaker 1: putting money down on them to win the Super Bowl,
18:53
Speaker 1: and they were like at fifty two one at that point,
18:55
Speaker 1: why didn't we think about that? What didn't we like
18:57
Speaker 1: about them? As a Super Bowl contender versus other teams?
19:00
Speaker 1: Was it? Like you know, we always talked about d
19:03
Speaker 1: v o A, Right, their d v O A numbers
19:05
Speaker 1: are middling. What weren't we seeing in them? I never
19:08
Speaker 1: would have got it right, honestly, just just because I
19:10
Speaker 1: would have saw their path, Like say, there wasn't the
19:12
Speaker 1: Chief they had to go to playoff at the Buffalo
19:14
Speaker 1: play against the Bills. I would have the Bills in
19:16
Speaker 1: that game too, Like I just I never would have
19:19
Speaker 1: believed it, just because usually it takes a year or
19:21
Speaker 1: two to get there, Like usually make the playoffs, you'll lose,
19:24
Speaker 1: you get humbled, and then you make it back. The
19:27
Speaker 1: only time we see where it works out is when
19:28
Speaker 1: you have a great defense. We never never thought the
19:32
Speaker 1: Bengals had a great defense, Like Ben Roethlisberger had a
19:35
Speaker 1: great defense. Russell Wilson had a great defense when they
19:38
Speaker 1: were young, Tom Brady, we all know about that Patriots defense.
19:42
Speaker 1: I was a great defense. So I just never would
19:44
Speaker 1: have saw it coming in. Like we joke about no
19:46
Speaker 1: other pros that either their path has been ideal. Right,
19:49
Speaker 1: they play the Raiders who somehow get in and they
19:53
Speaker 1: went by one score. Then they play the Titans, like
19:55
Speaker 1: that's the one seed and that you would want to play.
19:58
Speaker 1: They win by one score. They get a bunch of
20:00
Speaker 1: turner I mean they've been benefiting from turnervers to you know.
20:02
Speaker 1: And then they come back against the Chiefs and super
20:05
Speaker 1: impressive win. It's not the worst path in the world.
20:08
Speaker 1: You know. They remind me kind of the two twelve
20:09
Speaker 1: Ravens who got in and won three road games with
20:12
Speaker 1: with Flacco went crazy. You just get in. It's a
20:16
Speaker 1: football game. I will say that that this is Cincinnati
20:19
Speaker 1: is the third lowest regular season dv o A of
20:22
Speaker 1: any Super Bowl team since two thousand three. The two
20:26
Speaker 1: with lower d v O rights with the OH three
20:29
Speaker 1: Panthers Jake the Loan and the OH eight Cardinals both
20:34
Speaker 1: lost in the Super Bowl. Simon were all right, stucky,
20:38
Speaker 1: rapid fire in the final few minutes. National anthem trends.
20:44
Speaker 1: This will be the bet that everyone talks about before
20:47
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Forget about sides, national anthem trends go.
20:51
Speaker 1: I personally will say I've never bet the national anthem
20:54
Speaker 1: m life and will never bet it. And the reason
20:56
Speaker 1: it's simple. I don't. I don't shame anyone that does.
20:59
Speaker 1: I refused to lose a bet before the game starts.
21:02
Speaker 1: That's it. So I don't want to be oh and
21:04
Speaker 1: one before the game starts. Uh, and that's all that's
21:08
Speaker 1: you know. I think it's just like a It would
21:09
Speaker 1: just give me bad vibes. I'm oh and one. We
21:11
Speaker 1: haven't even started this game yet, but I know everyone's
21:13
Speaker 1: gonna bet it. Uh. Since some of the shortest anthems
21:18
Speaker 1: that we've seen Billy Joel, Kelly Clarkson, they were between
21:23
Speaker 1: ninety and seconds, and then you had Alicia Keys in
21:26
Speaker 1: two thousand and thirteen who was two minutes and thirty
21:30
Speaker 1: six seconds, a minute longer than the shortest this year.
21:35
Speaker 1: This year's performer is country singer Mickey Gayton, and she's
21:39
Speaker 1: a country music artist. I know obviously nothing about her,
21:43
Speaker 1: but she's singing and oddsmakers, I think that she's gonna
21:46
Speaker 1: have one of the shortest anthems ever. It's gonna be
21:48
Speaker 1: around nine swonds. So I remember one one year there
21:51
Speaker 1: was someone forgot to forgot a line in there, skipped
21:54
Speaker 1: over a line and then think the it stayed under.
21:58
Speaker 1: I still have a friend who talks about that that
22:00
Speaker 1: he had the over and whoever was saying missed the
22:03
Speaker 1: line of the national anthem, and he says he deserves
22:06
Speaker 1: his money back. But if you're itching for the game,
22:08
Speaker 1: this isn't. This isn't, Alicia Keys, you'll save a minute
22:11
Speaker 1: here before kickoff the last one news. By the way,
22:15
Speaker 1: do you know Mickey Gate news? Now? I don't know
22:17
Speaker 1: Mickey game. Okay you should not. No, No, definitely not.
22:24
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24:33
Speaker 1: Any value we talked about will there be a score
24:36
Speaker 1: in the first six minutes, We talked about betting the
24:38
Speaker 1: under in the first half, nerves, et cetera. Any value
24:41
Speaker 1: on betting the first Super Bowl score? Yeah, so everyone's
24:45
Speaker 1: gonna want to talk about who's gonna score the first touchdown. Um,
24:47
Speaker 1: we're gonna have a lot of content out there. We're
24:49
Speaker 1: gonna have I think we're we're either gonna do a
24:51
Speaker 1: super We're gonna do a draft like a snake draft,
24:53
Speaker 1: where we're just gonna all give our thoughts on who
24:55
Speaker 1: has the most value. But in the last twelve Super
25:00
Speaker 1: re Bolts, the first score has been a field goal
25:02
Speaker 1: six times, a touchdown four times, and one of those
25:06
Speaker 1: those safeties safeties twice, So two times those safeties were
25:10
Speaker 1: the first score of the game. Three of these, so
25:12
Speaker 1: there's only been four touchdowns out of the last twelve
25:15
Speaker 1: Super Bowls is the first score. Three of those touchdowns
25:18
Speaker 1: were through the air, and the last twelve Super Bowls,
25:21
Speaker 1: the underdog has scored first seven times, the favorite five.
25:24
Speaker 1: So maybe there's some potential in taking the Bengals or
25:28
Speaker 1: someone on since another interesting like on field match up
25:33
Speaker 1: which will impact a lot of this stuff. Sean Karner
25:35
Speaker 1: are very is gonna do some content on this because
25:38
Speaker 1: you have both tight ends have like the same injury,
25:41
Speaker 1: and we don't know if they're gonna play, and they
25:43
Speaker 1: might be game time decisions. So how are oddsmaker is
25:48
Speaker 1: gonna price like Uzoma to score and his props and
25:52
Speaker 1: whether or not he's gonna play, and who else does
25:54
Speaker 1: that impact? And then you know if they're tight end.
25:56
Speaker 1: If those tight ends are on out there and you
25:58
Speaker 1: got like Drew sample instead, it would probably increase the
26:02
Speaker 1: odds that someone else on the Bengals is going to
26:04
Speaker 1: catch a touchdown if that is indeed the first score.
26:08
Speaker 1: So a lot of interesting storylines with first score. Don't
26:11
Speaker 1: go crazy on those bets, They're more for fun and
26:14
Speaker 1: uh throw a dart and see if you got the
26:16
Speaker 1: right guy who gets in the end zone. First, Little
26:19
Speaker 1: Known rams backup tight end Mickey Gayton will be the
26:24
Speaker 1: first to score a thousand to one. Yeah, before we
26:27
Speaker 1: get out of here, people have been asking all week
26:30
Speaker 1: what are you doing here? First weekend? No football, And
26:32
Speaker 1: I'll say what I'm doing that's that's a great question, honestly, Simon,
26:36
Speaker 1: I haven't even thought about it. Wow. Yeah, I'm going
26:39
Speaker 1: to see Jackass forever tonight. Then I'm hopping on an
26:42
Speaker 1: airplane down to somewhere warm, and then I'll come back
26:45
Speaker 1: up Sunday. It's gonna be a good weekend. Stucky is
26:48
Speaker 1: going to be hosting the Big Bets on Campus Live
26:51
Speaker 1: college basketball preview show with the three Men We've Guys
26:53
Speaker 1: on Saturday morning at ten thirty Eastern on at Action
26:56
Speaker 1: Network HQ. Then he's gonna hunker down and bet his
27:00
Speaker 1: face off on college basketball on every team that you've
27:03
Speaker 1: never heard of. Yeah. The last night I went, it
27:06
Speaker 1: was my first night not posting the NFL podcast. We
27:09
Speaker 1: will do ours next Wednesday night, and I don't and
27:12
Speaker 1: forever since August. So I promised my wife i'd go
27:15
Speaker 1: see a late night movie. We saw the New Spider Man.
27:18
Speaker 1: She's seen every morravel movie. I've seen like zero, um
27:21
Speaker 1: and it was sick. So I saw the Original Spider
27:24
Speaker 1: Man though no, I've seen none of them, so I
27:27
Speaker 1: like studied who I Eat It the Now? But it
27:30
Speaker 1: was it was a pretty dope movie. And yeah, I've
27:32
Speaker 1: seen like no action movies and she's seen every single one.
27:36
Speaker 1: This is the difference between dudes that are married but
27:40
Speaker 1: have no kids, dudes that are unmarried and have no kids,
27:44
Speaker 1: and dudes that are married and have kids and the
27:48
Speaker 1: only thing they think about on the weekend is can
27:50
Speaker 1: I fix something? And I stay in bed, like what
27:55
Speaker 1: can I do that requires as little work and effort
27:58
Speaker 1: as possible? Such a lot. I got a question field
28:01
Speaker 1: true or fall stucky? Did you go to an arcade
28:04
Speaker 1: with your wife last night? I did? Yeah, she smoked
28:07
Speaker 1: me in every game. There's like an arcade in the theater.
28:10
Speaker 1: It's called lex Live. It's right next to rupt that
28:12
Speaker 1: downtown Lexington. It's really cool place. Yeah, she smoked me.
28:16
Speaker 1: I'm running just so bad on all my bets. I
28:18
Speaker 1: can't even beat my wife in arcade games. So something
28:21
Speaker 1: in the betting world when when it rains it poor
28:23
Speaker 1: sometimes and you just got a little bit. But she
28:25
Speaker 1: gat me in ski ball, she got like a ten
28:27
Speaker 1: thousand one at the buzzer to beat me once she
28:31
Speaker 1: beat me and Connect four basketball, Lara Croft game Mario
28:36
Speaker 1: Kart at like the last second, like three times in
28:39
Speaker 1: a row. So yeah, she humiliated me in the arcade
28:43
Speaker 1: true story. I was asleep by last night, fell asleep
28:47
Speaker 1: reading my kindle with extra large font turn off, the light,
28:52
Speaker 1: went to bed. It's beautiful. Listen. This has been the
28:57
Speaker 1: favorites from the Volume podcast. At work, we are in
29:00
Speaker 1: the midst of massive Super Bowl week coverage. You can
29:05
Speaker 1: catch us again on Tuesday with seean Coroner and Chris
29:10
Speaker 1: Raybon talking the list of Super Bowl um player props.
29:14
Speaker 1: You can catch us again on Thursday where Simon and
29:16
Speaker 1: I will go through our sharp calls, will go through
29:17
Speaker 1: our Simon says, we'll go through our big balls better
29:20
Speaker 1: the week, we'll go through our foxel We'll break down
29:22
Speaker 1: the game from every angle, give you our final take
29:25
Speaker 1: on what we're thinking. You can also get next Thursday
29:27
Speaker 1: morning Action Network podcast Chris Raybon and Stucky the Best
29:31
Speaker 1: in the Business. Also listen to big bets on campus.
29:34
Speaker 1: Get your college basketball fix. Listen to Buckets, get your
29:37
Speaker 1: NBA fix. Lots of stuff to bet on, folks, just
29:40
Speaker 1: because the NFL season is drawing to a close. For
29:44
Speaker 1: our friends, Stucky Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation for professional
29:48
Speaker 1: better BFF compadre companion Simon Hunter, for producer Matt Mitchell,
29:53
Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman. Download us from Spotify, from Apple Podcast,
29:57
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast. Rate review, rate us a
30:00
Speaker 1: five star. You can say whatever you want. It is
30:02
Speaker 1: review season, as everybody knows. I'm just finished Simon Hunters yesterday.
30:06
Speaker 1: I'm gonna do Matt Mitchell's today, and your reviews coming up.
30:10
Speaker 1: Give us our review, just give us five stars until
30:14
Speaker 1: next week. I love you,