Latest / International Flavor: Where the Truth Tastes Better / Iran Crisis, Oil Shock & Hormuz Threat: The Real Global Power Shift Explained

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Iran Crisis, Oil Shock & Hormuz Threat: The Real Global Power Shift Explained · International Flavor: Where the Truth Tastes Better

• 0:00
  Hello, good morning. Welcome. I am
• 0:02
  Samuel Trap. This is International
• 0:04
  Flavor. You are listening to Damn Radio.
• 0:07
  Very glad that you are. If you feel like
• 0:09
  calling in, no problem at all on my end.
• 0:13
  5737468020.
• 0:18
  So once again, the sleepless sleepless
• 0:23
  Sammy has uh what did I get? Maybe 45
• 0:26
  minutes last night. I am so tired and
• 0:28
  not sleeping. I can barely stand it. Uh
• 0:31
  but I don't sleep very well. Never have.
• 0:34
  And um h I got uh there's a lot of
• 0:38
  thoughts turnurning in my head
• 0:39
  yesterday. So everybody knows that we've
• 0:42
  opened Civic Outlaws on um by the way um
• 0:47
  civicoutlaws.commpodcast.
• 0:51
  You can get all of our prior uh versions
• 0:54
  of Civic Outlaws. Uh
• 0:55
  internationalflavor.com.
• 0:57
  You can go out there and uh check out Oh
• 1:00
  jeez, I got a year and a half worth of
• 1:02
  shows out there now. Unbelievable. And
• 1:05
  can't believe I've been doing it that
• 1:06
  long. I got a bunch more in Russian
• 1:08
  language if you feel like going out to
• 1:10
  my YouTube channel. I got 15,000
• 1:13
  followers in Russia, Madra Russia, where
• 1:16
  they sometimes like to listen to the
• 1:17
  opinion of the Ruska Gabriashi
• 1:20
  Americanit, Russian speaking American
• 1:23
  American. And uh uh anyway, I have a lot
• 1:26
  of fun doing that kind of thing. And
• 1:27
  I've been uh negligent in uh
• 1:32
  probably the last 3 4 months in getting
• 1:35
  out steady content for my Russian
• 1:39
  speaking channel. And uh
• 1:44
  I'm going to I'm going to cure that at
• 1:46
  some point here. Maybe I should do it
• 1:48
  while I'm not sleeping. But I try to
• 1:50
  sleep. I really do. Last night I didn't
• 1:53
  sleep. There's a dog in my house. And uh
• 1:56
  I like dogs, but you know what? I like
• 1:59
  dogs when they belong to other people.
• 2:04
  This dog does belong to other people.
• 2:06
  This is my my my sister's dog and they
• 2:08
  are uh in in town taking care of some
• 2:10
  things. And uh they were going elsewhere
• 2:13
  and uh they couldn't take the dog and so
• 2:16
  I got the dog. So anyway, the dog didn't
• 2:19
  keep me up. Dog was very well behaved.
• 2:21
  You know, it's a gentleman and a
• 2:22
  scholar. very nice dog and uh uh but I'm
• 2:25
  glad it's somebody else's. You know,
• 2:27
  it's kind of like when you're a grandpa,
• 2:29
  you can pass the children back. I like
• 2:32
  kids, too. Kids are wonderful. So, uh
• 2:35
  you got uh you know, I like kids. I
• 2:37
  think they're funny. And uh uh heck, I'm
• 2:40
  a kid myself when you get right down to
• 2:42
  it. Anyway, Civic Outlaws, we've had
• 2:44
  some uh pretty good um
• 2:48
  response. we, you know, it's almost a
• 2:51
  success story. So,
• 2:55
  I probably should save this till Friday,
• 2:56
  but I'm not going to do it. Um, I I'm
• 2:58
  going to um, you know, I went I I told a
• 3:00
  little bit about uh going up to the cap
• 3:02
  last week or whatever to do some uh
• 3:04
  sunshine things, and I've been
• 3:06
  researching a little bit and uh I
• 3:08
  received a um phone call yesterday from
• 3:12
  uh Benny Cook. We had a nice
• 3:14
  conversation. Um, I I've done a little
• 3:16
  bit of studying up on him personally and
• 3:18
  I never meant to attack him and I don't
• 3:21
  think I did. Um, you know, I might be a
• 3:23
  little blunt because that's just the way
• 3:26
  I am, but I don't mean anything by that.
• 3:28
  It's just, you know,
• 3:32
  this has been true for my entire life.
• 3:35
  Either love Samuel Trap or you just hate
• 3:37
  him. You can't stand. There aren't any
• 3:39
  middle of the roaders. Ah, I could take
• 3:41
  him or leave him. Nope. Screw that guy.
• 3:44
  can't stand him or oh, he's a great guy.
• 3:46
  You know, there is no middle of the
• 3:48
  road. And so, that is unfortunate but uh
• 3:51
  true. I think I'd rather be one of the
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  nameless, faceless uh many that just get
• 3:56
  to wander through life being ignored.
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  And so, uh of late, I have been trying
• 4:01
  to be, you know, a better behaved uh uh
• 4:04
  citizen, you know, good human being,
• 4:06
  that kind of thing. And I've always
• 4:08
  been, you know, polite and decent to
• 4:10
  people, but I definitely stand up for
• 4:12
  myself and for others. I have no problem
• 4:15
  with that. But it's not from a point of
• 4:17
  view of, you know, I I might sometimes
• 4:19
  call people I don't know names, you
• 4:22
  know, like important figures like, geez,
• 4:25
  what a You know, Lindsey Graham,
• 4:27
  what a nut. What in the hell's wrong
• 4:29
  with that guy? You know, I heard him
• 4:32
  again yesterday. And he's always on the
• 4:35
  TV. This idiot is now wandering around
• 4:37
  going, "Oh geez, we need to take over
• 4:39
  the island of Kark down there. We got we
• 4:42
  got two two um what do they call them?
• 4:44
  Uh marine detachments going. That's 2500
• 4:47
  frigin soldiers." Okay. So, you're going
• 4:49
  to take two 2500 5,000 soldiers, right?
• 4:52
  And you're I'm going to take over Car
• 4:54
  Island. Well, good for you. They're all
• 4:56
  going to get slaughtered on there
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  because nobody's going to allow you to
• 4:59
  hold that island. And then uh you have
• 5:02
  zero defense left. You know what are you
• 5:04
  going to do? You can't hold the straits
• 5:06
  of Hormuz. It's It's I I watched a very
• 5:09
  interesting uh I'm a news hound when it
• 5:12
  comes over there. And I watched a lady I
• 5:14
  should play part of it for you because
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  it was uh was
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  there are fuel shortages of massive
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  quantities and the price of they call it
• 5:29
  petrol or you know or or benzene stuff
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  like that in Pakistan and in um
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  uh northern India and Afghanistan and
• 5:41
  those places over there that uh uh you
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  know Pakistan relies on its fuel from
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  other places and they have a lot of
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  people living over there. Those are
• 5:50
  large populations
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  and they they say that the the prices
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  this so Pauly Sharma or whatever her
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  name is from Times of India and I like
• 6:01
  watching her. In fact, I you know I
• 6:03
  might look her up and and play a little
• 6:04
  bit of her of her show because uh she is
• 6:09
  very wellspoken
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  and it's you know well worth the effort
• 6:15
  to listen to this palki sharma and she
• 6:18
  had a very very good show on times of
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  India last night. It went too long. I
• 6:22
  don't have time to to you know I I don't
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  like that show. The Russian versions I
• 6:27
  like watching those. that's an interest
• 6:29
  to me and it improves my Russian
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  language or stuff like that. a pulky
• 6:32
  shre that's all in English and I don't
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  really I don't really care I can do that
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  here right but I like watching alazer
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  English I like watching times of India
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  and a couple other Indian programs over
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  there to get a different perspective on
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  it and so the alazer comes normally most
• 6:49
  of it comes out of the u Qatar area you
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  know but there's plenty of different uh
• 6:55
  alazer nodes around the world and you
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  just get a different perspective okay
• 7:00
  and uh the Indian perspect perspective.
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  I tell you what, it's it's uh pretty
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  important. And the talk about what is
• 7:08
  going on in the rest of the world, they
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  think the old Trumpster is uh they think
• 7:13
  he's out there. They think he's nuts.
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  And they they think he's lost his
• 7:19
  marbles. And uh uh you know, maybe he
• 7:23
  has. I don't know. But uh let me see if
• 7:25
  I can get to my history. I don't know
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  what the hell I'm doing on the uh on the
• 7:30
  old computer here in the office. I need
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  to be doing this in u uh somewhere else
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  where my history is that I have watched
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  before
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  because Pauly Sharma. But I tell you
• 7:42
  what, while we while we find it because
• 7:46
  I want to listen to her, we're going to
• 7:48
  listen to Chicherina and Tut Laa. No, we
• 7:52
  won't do that. How about some Polish
• 7:54
  some Polish deep house music as they
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  call it? That's what we're going to do
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  whilst I find it because I want to I I'm
• 8:03
  intended to find this and have it easily
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  pull upable, but so far it's not working
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  out in my uh to my advantage. So, we're
• 8:11
  going to play some some Polish music
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  here. Hold on.
• 8:29
  Per
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  you
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  Swish I close my
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  six sense.
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  M
• 9:17
  please call it more.
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  Please call it
• 9:24
  time. Please come in.
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  So time please come in.
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  I don't care who you are. I just think
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  that music is is pretty, you know, no
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  matter how you slice it. That's 2026 no
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  jaja relaxing
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  music do automix the automatic mix in
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  Polish.
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  Uh very good stuff. Um, so let's see.
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  Here is Palky Sharma in her um,
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  uh, let's see if we have her name right
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  and make sure I haven't been calling her
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  the wrong name this whole time, but I
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  don't think I have. And we shall make
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  sure because she has quite a bit of
• 10:23
  interesting news that she likes to to go
• 10:25
  through. and the she they're talking
• 10:29
  about Trump delaying the strikes um in
• 10:32
  Iran and the falsehood of that narrative
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  because what they're really saying is
• 10:41
  that you can't get these Marine
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  Expeditionary forces there for 5 days.
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  And so if you can convince,
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  according to all the international
• 10:52
  players anyway, all the international
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  news sources, if Trump can convince
• 10:56
  people that
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  he's just, you know, given a ceasefire,
• 11:03
  and by the way, he came out yesterday
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  and said that, "Oh, gee, we started
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  having really good discussions with Iran
• 11:10
  and then the the price of oil went down
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  right two hours later all the Iranians
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  come out and go, "What the hell is he
• 11:18
  talking about? We haven't had any
• 11:19
  discussions with him, nor do we intend
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  to." You know, we don't have any
• 11:23
  intention of having conversations with
• 11:25
  him. Nobody's even approached us about
• 11:28
  having conversations. And then Trump
• 11:29
  says that uh because they're having
• 11:32
  discussions, they're going to have a
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  fiveday, you know, we're going to have a
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  5-day ceasefire. Well, that's because
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  according to everybody else around the
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  world that you can't get these uh two
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  little tiny expeditionary forces of 2500
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  a piece there in time to do anything.
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  And what are 2500 guys going to do
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  anyway in truth, you know, and you got
• 11:55
  Lindsy Graham out there going, "Well,
• 11:58
  it's just like taking evil Jeep." You're
• 12:01
  going, "What in the hell is wrong with
• 12:02
  this guy?" Oh, yeah. You were there,
• 12:04
  right, Lindsay?
• 12:06
  We were there. Let's We're We're taking
• 12:08
  over.
• 12:10
  Here it comes. We said we lost 26,000
• 12:15
  soldiers at Eoima, by the way, in in
• 12:18
  that that assault. And so, it wasn't
• 12:21
  necessarily for all involved, nothing
• 12:24
  but a victory. I mean, that's a callous
• 12:26
  dude. I mean, that is one callous guy.
• 12:30
  And just just throw all kinds of bodies
• 12:33
  at it. Long as it ain't me. And uh that
• 12:36
  that is I I I tell you what, I have zero
• 12:40
  respect for that guy. And I mean none.
• 12:44
  You know, in fact, the amount of respect
• 12:46
  I have is so low you'd have to reach up
• 12:49
  to touch the bottom of the level of
• 12:51
  respect I got for him. It is less than
• 12:54
  zero. And that was a good movie, by the
• 12:57
  way. If you haven't ever seen the movie
• 12:58
  Less than Zero, that was a good movie in
• 13:01
  the 80s. And I don't know why that just
• 13:03
  struck my mind, but but less than zero
• 13:06
  is the amount of respect I have for that
• 13:09
  raving lunatic. So, I'm going to try to
• 13:12
  find the right
• 13:15
  um and she got talking about it right
• 13:18
  here. Um where is it and all the stuff
• 13:22
  that uh Trump delaying on the peace
• 13:25
  talks and let's listen to her point of
• 13:27
  view. This come from India, right? and
• 13:29
  and Pauly Sharma, you can always find
• 13:31
  her out on First Post. And then she's
• 13:33
  got a she used to be on uh maybe she
• 13:36
  still is. I'm not sure how they all go,
• 13:38
  but look her up. It's P A L KI Sharma. S
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  H A R M A. And uh she's on First Post.
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  She has First Post has 9.47
• 13:47
  million subscribers. And so uh it's it's
• 13:50
  this was uh streamed 21 hours ago. Okay.
• 13:55
  And and I'm starting at a tiny bit in
• 13:58
  the middle. So, let's hear what she has
• 14:00
  to say.
• 14:02
  Make sure I got the volume appropriately
• 14:04
  up and hope that it's not too loud for
• 14:07
  us all to go deaf upon. But a different
• 14:11
  point of view for you. Okay.
• 14:13
  >> President has delayed his latest
• 14:14
  attacks. Instead, he's focusing on
• 14:16
  diplomacy. He says talks are underway.
• 14:20
  >> Wait, we got to go back a little bit.
• 14:24
  >> Were killed in this accident while
• 14:25
  several others were injured. The
• 14:27
  collision took place on Sunday night
• 14:29
  after which all flights at the airport
• 14:30
  were grounded.
• 14:33
  The long-awaited trial into Greece's
• 14:35
  worst train tragedy begins, but the
• 14:37
  hearing was adjourned to the 1st of
• 14:38
  April due to chaos. The room was too
• 14:41
  small to handle the huge interest in
• 14:43
  this case. 57 people had died in the
• 14:46
  train collision in 2023.
• 14:50
  A new rule in Hong Kong forces people to
• 14:52
  share their phone or computer passwords
• 14:54
  with the police. This relates to
• 14:57
  investigations linked to the national
• 14:58
  security law which was imposed by China
• 15:01
  in 2020. Those who refuse to do so will
• 15:04
  face one year in jail.
• 15:07
  And a top German court rejects a
• 15:09
  landmark climate case. Environmentalists
• 15:12
  wanted BMW and MercedesBenz to stop
• 15:15
  selling combustion engine cars from
• 15:17
  2030. But the court ruled that citizens'
• 15:19
  personal rights were not affected by the
• 15:22
  business activities of the auto giants.
• 15:28
  Finally, here we go. Sorry about that.
• 16:02
  It's week four of the West Asia war.
• 16:04
  After 24 days of fighting, there is some
• 16:07
  hope, some indications of deescalation,
• 16:10
  and it came from Donald Trump himself.
• 16:12
  The US president has delayed his latest
• 16:14
  attacks. Instead, he is focusing on
• 16:16
  diplomacy. He says talks are underway
• 16:19
  for a complete resolution.
• 16:22
  And this is coming after a brutal
• 16:24
  weekend of fighting. We saw missiles
• 16:27
  thudding into Israeli cities. We saw
• 16:28
  threats and deadlines from the White
• 16:30
  House. And as usual, defiance from
• 16:32
  Thran.
• 16:34
  So, will this lead to a meaningful
• 16:36
  deescalation?
• 16:38
  Let's look at Trump's message first.
• 16:40
  I am pleased to report that the United
• 16:42
  States of America and the country of
• 16:44
  Iran have have had over the last two
• 16:46
  days very good and productive
• 16:48
  conversations regarding a complete and
• 16:50
  total resolution of our hostilities in
• 16:52
  the Middle East based on the terror the
• 16:54
  tenor and tone of these in-depth
• 16:56
  detailed and constructive conversations
• 16:59
  which will continue throughout the week.
• 17:01
  I have instructed the Department of War
• 17:03
  to postpone any and all military strikes
• 17:06
  against Iranian power plants and energy
• 17:09
  infrastructure for a 5-day period.
• 17:13
  And that is certainly written by Trump.
• 17:17
  Look at all the typos. Pleased to report
• 17:20
  instead of pleased to report and which
• 17:22
  from Harry Potter instead of wh.
• 17:26
  So rest assured this is Trump talking.
• 17:30
  But this announcement here,
• 17:31
  >> how do you like to be corrected by in
• 17:34
  English by a foreign news journalist who
• 17:38
  who doesn't speak English as her native
• 17:41
  language? Oh, that is depressing, isn't
• 17:45
  it?
• 17:46
  >> Came out of the blue on.
• 17:47
  >> By the way, last week he called it the
• 17:49
  straight the hor straight hors ti ght.
• 17:56
  Straight.
• 17:58
  Oh goodness, I can't take it.
• 18:00
  >> Sunday, Trump had issued a serious
• 18:02
  threat. He asked Iran to open the Strait
• 18:03
  of Hormuz within 48 hours. If not, he
• 18:07
  threatened to destroy Iran's power
• 18:08
  plants.
• 18:10
  >> Basically plunge the country into
• 18:12
  darkness.
• 18:14
  That 48 hour deadline was supposed to
• 18:16
  expire tomorrow morning, but now Trump
• 18:18
  has delayed it by 5 days.
• 18:21
  What's more, he says talks are underway
• 18:23
  to end the war. Now, just to be clear,
• 18:26
  only attacks on power plants have been
• 18:28
  delayed. The other attacks and
• 18:29
  operations continue
• 18:32
  and yet this is a sudden and stunning
• 18:34
  climb down. And what is Iran saying?
• 18:38
  Well, they have not confirmed direct or
• 18:40
  indirect talks, but their foreign
• 18:42
  ministry says efforts are underway to
• 18:44
  decrease tensions with the United
• 18:46
  States.
• 18:48
  So, who exactly is Donald Trump talking
• 18:50
  to? The president says his team is
• 18:52
  speaking to a top leader but not the
• 18:54
  supreme leader in Iran. He says if the
• 18:57
  talks succeed, the war will end soon.
• 19:01
  >> It's probably Lindsey Graham
• 19:05
  or Benjamin.
• 19:06
  >> We have had very very strong talks.
• 19:09
  We'll see where they lead. We have
• 19:12
  points major points of agreement. I
• 19:14
  would say almost all points of
• 19:15
  agreement. If they carry through with
• 19:18
  that, it'll end that that problem, that
• 19:21
  conflict, and I think it'll end it very
• 19:23
  very substantially. They want very much
• 19:25
  to make a deal. We'd like to make a
• 19:27
  deal, too. We're going to get together
• 19:30
  today
• 19:32
  uh by probably phone because it's very
• 19:34
  hard to find a country. It's very hard
• 19:37
  for them to get out.
• 19:38
  >> Will Iran still be able to control the
• 19:40
  flow of oil?
• 19:40
  >> Uh be jointly controlled.
• 19:43
  >> By whom? Maybe me, maybe me.
• 19:47
  >> United States,
• 19:48
  >> me and the Ayatollah, whoever the
• 19:49
  Ayatollah is, whoever the next
• 19:51
  Ayatollah. Look, and it'll also be a
• 19:54
  form of a a very serious form of a
• 19:57
  regime change. Now, in all fairness,
• 20:00
  everybody's been killed from the regime.
• 20:03
  They're really starting off. There's
• 20:04
  automatically a regime change.
• 20:09
  >> Nothing is clear yet. Some Israeli
• 20:11
  sources say the US is talking to Iran's
• 20:13
  parliament speaker. His name is Muhammad
• 20:16
  Ber Khalib.
• 20:18
  Reports say he's exchanging messages via
• 20:20
  Pakistan Turkey and Egypt. And if true,
• 20:23
  this is big news. The markets are
• 20:25
  already cheering Trump's statement. It's
• 20:27
  the first indication of deescalation and
• 20:29
  talks. The question is what led to it.
• 20:32
  Look at what happened on Saturday.
• 20:34
  Israel and the US hit Iran's nuclear
• 20:37
  sites. These are located in the city of
• 20:39
  Natans in central Iran. These nuclear
• 20:43
  sites were hit. In response, Iran fired
• 20:46
  a massive volley of missiles at Israel.
• 20:50
  Two of those missiles slammed into
• 20:51
  Israeli cities. Arad in the south and
• 20:54
  Deona in the Nev desert. More than 180
• 20:57
  Israelis were injured in this attack.
• 21:12
  showing some here.
• 21:15
  >> It's not good.
• 21:26
  At any rate, if you if you like to get a
• 21:29
  different perspective from someone that
• 21:31
  speaks from the other side of the planet
• 21:33
  and from somebody who doesn't have
• 21:35
  necessarily a a vested interest in uh
• 21:43
  I don't know what certainly an
• 21:44
  escalation, but they're talking about so
• 21:48
  so the big deals on on her show and it
• 21:50
  her show is way too long to part off all
• 21:53
  the parts that I want to get and um to
• 21:57
  go to for example
• 22:01
  uh what is important for
• 22:04
  India right now
• 22:07
  because the rest of the planet uh on at
• 22:10
  least on the in the western Asia side of
• 22:14
  the planet and and including India so
• 22:18
  India
• 22:19
  uh Sri Lanka think uh
• 22:22
  all of the places over in that general
• 22:25
  area, all the Stan countries, Georgia,
• 22:30
  um all the way through Afghanistan and
• 22:32
  Azerbaijan and then into Iran and all of
• 22:35
  that, those places over there, they rely
• 22:39
  very heavily on products that come
• 22:42
  through the straits of Hormuz or through
• 22:45
  the uh Red Sea and uh through the Indian
• 22:49
  Ocean. Okay. And so there there was a
• 22:52
  long discussion on this and there was a
• 22:59
  talk about the current the planting
• 23:04
  season is starting right now for all of
• 23:07
  the big grains, you know, your rices,
• 23:09
  your corns, all that stuff. This is when
• 23:11
  the monsoon season begins over there.
• 23:13
  And so they want to get all the rain.
• 23:15
  They want to get as much rain as they
• 23:17
  can. But fertilizer is extremely
• 23:20
  important that they got to have this
• 23:21
  fertilizer and all the fertilizer comes
• 23:25
  through those areas. So they're down on
• 23:29
  fertilizer and their their conflicts
• 23:32
  including oil talk about cooking oil all
• 23:37
  comes through there too. And different
• 23:39
  products of uh I forget what they call
• 23:42
  it. It's another another shortened
• 23:45
  version uh you know an acronym like
• 23:49
  liquid liquid natural gas you know LNG
• 23:53
  but there's also liquid cooking gas or
• 23:55
  it's a different uh acronym but that all
• 23:59
  comes through there too and so
• 24:01
  restaurants are shutting down
• 24:05
  and they're open like uh so many days uh
• 24:08
  you know so many hours a day and that's
• 24:10
  it. And the same is going on in
• 24:12
  Pakistan. And so the the the harm that
• 24:16
  this is causing the rest of the world
• 24:20
  for the US to take over the energy
• 24:22
  infrastructure of Iran, which I don't
• 24:25
  see happening. You know, Trump is far
• 24:28
  more positive about that uh that u end
• 24:32
  result than I am. Uh I I don't believe
• 24:36
  it. And uh I' I've heard far too many
• 24:39
  stories. And she's she's pretty middle
• 24:42
  of the road, you know. Al Jazzer,
• 24:45
  they're not. And uh Russian not. And uh
• 24:50
  uh all of those things that are going on
• 24:53
  are certainly worthy of understanding.
• 24:56
  Turkish Turkish TV not because they have
• 24:59
  English versions of of uh Turkish TV
• 25:02
  too. And uh I I like to watch various
• 25:05
  and sunundry places where it comes in
• 25:07
  and it's nice to get a different
• 25:10
  perspective is all I'm saying. And some
• 25:12
  of these p perspectives
• 25:15
  well most of them do not agree with all
• 25:18
  of the crap that is pumped down our well
• 25:23
  pumped into our ears. you know, the
• 25:25
  sunshine
• 25:27
  uh in very dark places
• 25:30
  that are that are being pumped into uh
• 25:32
  places, you know, that that that that it
• 25:35
  doesn't belong. And uh so I don't know.
• 25:38
  I' I'd like to see this over. I'd like
• 25:41
  to see Trump I don't know what he's
• 25:44
  actually gotten out of it. Okay. So So
• 25:47
  what what is what has been obtained
• 25:50
  here? Well, we got regime change. that's
• 25:52
  not what you said you were after. At
• 25:55
  least the first day, you know, the next
• 25:57
  day you said, you know, it's it's
• 25:59
  changed so many times, we don't know
• 26:01
  what in the hell we're after. And uh I
• 26:03
  kind of believe along the lines of what
• 26:05
  I said yesterday. Um, and I I was
• 26:08
  leaning that way anyway. But after
• 26:11
  listening to the weekend uh or over the
• 26:13
  weekend to a bunch of people who
• 26:16
  might understand the Iran situation a
• 26:19
  little better than me, I certainly
• 26:21
  believe it now. And uh if if
• 26:26
  I still think that we were kind of
• 26:29
  not dragged kicking and screaming and we
• 26:31
  want to be there, too. You know, you got
• 26:33
  you got our our military-industrial
• 26:35
  complex. Boy, they really want that
• 26:37
  extra $200 billion. And they want it.
• 26:41
  And so, you know, they're for any war.
• 26:44
  Whatever you got, let's do it. If it
• 26:46
  means we're going to get to $40 trillion
• 26:48
  in debt sooner, well, more power to us.
• 26:51
  Let's do it because we don't have to pay
• 26:53
  that back. You know, the the people uh
• 26:55
  the people running the show anyway, they
• 26:58
  don't have to pay it back. You know,
• 27:00
  America has to pay it back. And so that
• 27:03
  that you know I had a discussion with so
• 27:07
  so now I've had it with several people
• 27:09
  uh because I've been floating this idea
• 27:10
  to people after somebody else floated
• 27:13
  the idea to me that uh the the all the
• 27:16
  debt is going to be done.
• 27:19
  The debt will disappear
• 27:22
  by the time Trump leaves office. There
• 27:24
  will be zero dollars in debt. And I've
• 27:28
  heard more than one person uh allege
• 27:31
  this
• 27:36
  a curious curious uh concept. Um you
• 27:39
  know what? I'd love to see it. You know,
• 27:41
  it'd be great. Maybe you do it by
• 27:44
  pumping the gas prices up so high that
• 27:46
  you can sell the US surplus for a larger
• 27:49
  amount, but then all the only people
• 27:50
  that get it are private people. So, I'm
• 27:54
  not so sure I I I I believe it. I don't
• 27:56
  I don't get it. tariffs. I don't think
• 27:58
  tariffs are going to get us there. Um
• 28:01
  I'm I'm pretty confident of that small
• 28:04
  um deal. You know, our our our tariffs
• 28:08
  are not going to get us there. And I'm a
• 28:12
  little bit on the low volume side. I
• 28:14
  wonder what's going on there. H Well,
• 28:19
  I think somebody wears these headphones
• 28:22
  very loud. Maybe that's the problem.
• 28:24
  Anyway, I'm rambling and I apologize for
• 28:27
  that, but we're going to get into some
• 28:30
  some world news. I have been kind of all
• 28:33
  over this place. And um
• 28:37
  uh
• 28:39
  there was a report in the New York Times
• 28:42
  and here's another foolish foolish deal.
• 28:45
  US considering sender sending airborne
• 28:49
  troops to Iran. This according to the
• 28:51
  New York Times.
• 28:53
  A brigade of some 3,000 paratroopers
• 28:58
  uh US military officials are looking
• 29:01
  into the possibility of deploying
• 29:03
  airborne troops to capture Car Island.
• 29:07
  The New York Times is reporting said
• 29:09
  citing American defense sources. The US
• 29:12
  struck military targets on the island
• 29:15
  around 15 miles from the Iranian coast
• 29:18
  in mid-March, but has refrained from
• 29:21
  hitting the energy infrastructure on
• 29:24
  that island. Reports have been
• 29:26
  circulating since then, claiming that
• 29:28
  Washington plans to launch a ground
• 29:31
  operation and take control of the key
• 29:34
  oil hub in attempt to Thran's
• 29:37
  economy after 3 weeks from the start of
• 29:41
  the USIsraeli war. Why don't we call it
• 29:45
  what it is? you know, New York Times,
• 29:49
  the unprovoked uh fullscale
• 29:53
  massive war of aggression, but Trump's
• 29:57
  war of aggression, or are we going to be
• 29:59
  a a Trump stoogge if we say that we're
• 30:03
  going to be a puppet of Trump if we say
• 30:05
  some if we say any anything other than
• 30:07
  that? You know, if you don't claim it to
• 30:09
  be that, maybe you're a Trump puppet,
• 30:12
  right? Uh Iran has been warning that it
• 30:15
  would set oil and gas facilities in the
• 30:18
  Gulf nations on fire if a move against
• 30:21
  Carg Island is made. And on Monday, it
• 30:24
  threatened to retaliate by mining the
• 30:26
  straight of Hormuz and all the waterways
• 30:28
  in the region. So last night I watched a
• 30:31
  uh another video that was uh quite
• 30:34
  interesting on on what they call micro
• 30:38
  submarines. Okay. and Iran in the
• 30:45
  uh Hormuz in in that area near the
• 30:48
  straits of Hormuz uh in the Gulf, they
• 30:51
  have
• 30:53
  uh 10 or 12
• 30:56
  micro subs. And so they're extremely
• 31:00
  hard to detect because of their size.
• 31:03
  They're so small. because of the traffic
• 31:05
  that goes on there, a US sub would have
• 31:09
  an extremely difficult time maneuvering
• 31:12
  in there in any realistic way because
• 31:14
  it's a somewhat shallow in there and
• 31:18
  they're easily detectable because of
• 31:20
  their size and what the these micro subs
• 31:26
  I forget the nomenclature of them, but
• 31:28
  these micro subs have a small crew.
• 31:31
  They're fast underwater submarines and
• 31:34
  they can lay mines all over the place
• 31:38
  and so they can go in and set these and
• 31:41
  this is the risk and escalation that
• 31:44
  everybody has been warning about is
• 31:47
  taking the straight sahor moves and you
• 31:50
  know
• 31:53
  nobody wants to go nobody wants to get
• 31:57
  into this. So Oman is on one side of the
• 31:59
  straits of Hormuz and uh Iran's on the
• 32:03
  other and technically those waters are
• 32:06
  international in nature and nobody's
• 32:10
  paid to go through those ever but an
• 32:13
  Indian an Indian
• 32:16
  uh transport ship with one of the types
• 32:20
  of oil and I forget which one uh whether
• 32:23
  it was regular oil or whether it was a
• 32:25
  the cooking oil or
• 32:28
  one of those uh varietals of some sort.
• 32:31
  Um they uh
• 32:34
  paid $2 million. Well, well, they've
• 32:37
  been letting them go through or they
• 32:41
  said that that straight used to take
• 32:44
  upwards of
• 32:47
  uh 30 to 40 ships a day going through
• 32:53
  there. And I don't know if any of you
• 32:55
  have ever seen the Bosphorus Straits,
• 32:56
  but I'm telling you that is uh that is
• 33:01
  incredible to watch. I've been to Turkey
• 33:04
  a bunch of times and I like sitting on
• 33:06
  there. They have great restaurants up
• 33:08
  and down there in uh Istanbul and you
• 33:11
  can and there are fantastic walkways
• 33:14
  along the streets of Boserus. I've taken
• 33:16
  a couple. So, if you fly Turkish Airways
• 33:19
  and you and you're going to Russia or
• 33:22
  you're going to India or you're going to
• 33:24
  Australia or wherever, you can fly like
• 33:27
  Miami, Istanbul and then on further,
• 33:30
  right? And you go Turkish Airways and
• 33:32
  they have it's great airlines and they
• 33:34
  have excellent food and and very, you
• 33:37
  know, comfortable pl new planes. They're
• 33:39
  not like old crappy US planes, you know,
• 33:42
  it's it's good stuff and uh you can get
• 33:45
  in there and they really take care of
• 33:46
  it. And Turkish Airways, if your flight
• 33:49
  is overnight, like if you have a layover
• 33:52
  that's overnight, they give you a hotel
• 33:55
  room included with the price of your
• 33:57
  ticket and and and or if you arrive
• 34:00
  because a lot of times you fly out of
• 34:02
  Miami at nighttime, right? And so if you
• 34:04
  fly out of Miami at nighttime and it's
• 34:06
  about a 8 hour 10-hour flight to
• 34:09
  Istanbul and you fly to Istanbul and you
• 34:12
  stop and you get there in the morning,
• 34:14
  well your flight might not be uh for
• 34:16
  example to Ufa or to uh Kazan or
• 34:20
  wherever inside of Russia or even up to
• 34:22
  Moscow or wherever. Um, you have a a a
• 34:27
  day trip in there and they'll they they
• 34:30
  they take you on a excursion ex did I
• 34:34
  just say excursion? Excursion of the of
• 34:38
  the city of Istanbul.
• 34:40
  And Istanbul is huge. There's like four
• 34:43
  or five international airports there. Uh
• 34:46
  the entire the the city has got like I
• 34:49
  don't know 12 million 14 million. It's a
• 34:52
  huge and uh it is enormous and it is
• 34:56
  packed and it is very clean, very uh I
• 35:01
  mean awesome, you know, it's it's really
• 35:04
  cool and there's plenty of touristy
• 35:06
  places and there's plenty of warfare
• 35:08
  areas to go and there's lots of uh uh
• 35:11
  mosques that were built, you know,
• 35:12
  hundreds and hundreds of years ago,
• 35:14
  sometimes thousands of years ago. And
• 35:16
  they got the the the there's a huge
• 35:19
  soccer fields down there that you can go
• 35:21
  and tour in and you can walk just about
• 35:23
  everywhere. You wouldn't want to because
• 35:25
  it's so long, but you you take uh you
• 35:28
  know, they have uh you know, all kinds
• 35:30
  of public transportation, but if you fly
• 35:33
  into the international airport, then you
• 35:37
  can um you get a free day trip through
• 35:41
  there. So, you can watch these things
• 35:43
  go. And if you and and so if you get to
• 35:46
  go over there then uh you definitely
• 35:49
  should get an example to see what goes
• 35:51
  on over there. But it is phenomenal the
• 35:56
  amount of ships that go through there.
• 35:57
  So when you compare that and the amount
• 36:00
  of ships the amount of traffic out there
• 36:02
  in the in the Bosphorus Straits are is
• 36:06
  unbelievable. And we're talking huge
• 36:09
  huge ships and they're everywhere. Now
• 36:14
  those uh somebody said is about three
• 36:16
  times four times the size of what uh
• 36:20
  goes on in the straits of Hormuz.
• 36:23
  And Turkey charges to go through the
• 36:27
  boss restraits
• 36:29
  up to 250 to 400 to500 half a million
• 36:34
  dollar
• 36:36
  passage for a cargo ship goes through
• 36:39
  there to go through the Bos Straits.
• 36:42
  Panama Canal 250 to 500,000 for a ship
• 36:46
  to go through there. So I mean this is a
• 36:49
  big deal. zero to go through the uh
• 36:54
  straits of Hormuz
• 36:56
  and uh they don't between Oman and uh
• 37:01
  Iran they don't charge anything now that
• 37:04
  one is declared an international
• 37:07
  throughway and a critical world thing
• 37:09
  but Iran's never signed on to that you
• 37:12
  know that agreement and uh just like
• 37:15
  Panama hasn't signed on to keep theirs
• 37:18
  open I mean they charge people. Boserous
• 37:20
  Straits, they keep it. There's a a
• 37:22
  straits uh around Indonesia. I forget
• 37:24
  the name of it, but between Indonesia
• 37:27
  and the other islands in there, you to
• 37:28
  get through there, those places charge
• 37:30
  money, too. And a lot of people uh I
• 37:33
  mean the there's Canadian ones that char
• 37:36
  they charge you to get through those um
• 37:40
  you know, Great Lakes and whatnot. You
• 37:42
  know, those aren't just open. people
• 37:44
  charge and you got to pay a fee to go
• 37:46
  through and uh but not so in the straits
• 37:49
  of Hormuz. Well, just the last uh couple
• 37:52
  of weeks,
• 37:54
  the traffic has gone down from call it
• 37:57
  40 a day to uh the total amount of ships
• 38:02
  that have gone through in the last 3
• 38:05
  weeks is about
• 38:09
  25 24 25 according to Pauly Sharma and
• 38:13
  in the show that she was she was that I
• 38:15
  was playing for you there. She she says
• 38:18
  that uh their total amount that have
• 38:20
  been going through the total amount is
• 38:24
  that is nothing you know the total
• 38:27
  amount it's like one to two a day and
• 38:30
  one that went through yesterday the only
• 38:33
  ones that are that they're letting them
• 38:35
  go free if they're coming through from
• 38:37
  Iran with Iranian products going to uh
• 38:42
  Iranian customers like um India and like
• 38:46
  uh China and places like that or with
• 38:49
  their products, they're letting them go
• 38:51
  through. But everybody else, nope.
• 38:53
  You're either not getting through at all
• 38:56
  or uh over the last few days, they
• 39:00
  charged somebody 2 million bucks to get
• 39:03
  their ship through and they paid it. And
• 39:05
  you know, it was a a a Europeanbound uh
• 39:08
  ship that charged 2 million bucks. Now,
• 39:11
  it's quite a bit more than Turkeyy's
• 39:12
  going to charge you. quite a bit more
• 39:14
  than uh um
• 39:17
  uh Panama's going to charge you, but at
• 39:19
  least you can get through
• 39:22
  and you can get through. So, I think I
• 39:24
  think we might be experiencing something
• 39:26
  different. I don't know. I'm interested
• 39:27
  to see what happens, but the, you know,
• 39:30
  the US going over there and claiming
• 39:32
  they're going to, you know, control, you
• 39:34
  know, Trump says he and he and the next
• 39:37
  Ayatollah are going to com are going to
• 39:39
  control the Straits of Hormuz, but I
• 39:42
  don't know. We killed them all. We going
• 39:44
  to deal with over there. We killed them
• 39:46
  all. And that's
• 39:50
  I don't know. I'm I'm I'm very
• 39:52
  interested to see what happens over
• 39:53
  there. Um there was a reports that
• 39:56
  remember uh just in the last couple over
• 39:58
  the weekend, Qatar was going to help
• 40:00
  resolve the problems between the United
• 40:03
  States and Iran because uh Qatar has
• 40:05
  always been a good middleman. Qatar has
• 40:08
  refused as well. They don't want
• 40:09
  anything to do with it. And so uh you
• 40:12
  know there are no who's going to be the
• 40:14
  middleman. There's talk of Vladimir
• 40:16
  Putin or Xi Jinping might be the
• 40:19
  middleman. Now I doubt that frankly but
• 40:22
  uh uh I've I've seen reports about that.
• 40:26
  So, but Iran has been saying if you if
• 40:29
  you if the Gulf states, the Gulf nations
• 40:33
  and the US and Israel especially with
• 40:36
  the US attempt anything on Car Island
• 40:39
  that, you know, 3,000 soldiers aren't,
• 40:42
  you know, from the 82nd Airborne aren't
• 40:44
  going to be enough. you know, your
• 40:46
  immediate response force or your
• 40:51
  Marine uh expeditionary group of 2500,
• 40:56
  that's a 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit,
• 40:59
  which has been on its way to the Middle
• 41:00
  East now for 10 days. They're not there
• 41:03
  yet. This is a scenario where the
• 41:06
  paratroopers will augment the Marines,
• 41:08
  you know, uh said some officials from
• 41:10
  the Pentagon, uh according to New York
• 41:13
  Times. Anyway, despite being able to
• 41:15
  arrive swiftly, the airborne troops have
• 41:17
  no heavy equipment. Um, that that is
• 41:20
  actually possessed by the Marines, but
• 41:22
  even that's not really heavy equipment.
• 41:24
  It's like, you know, maybe Bradley style
• 41:27
  or even lighter than a Bradley that
• 41:29
  would need to repel possible Iranian
• 41:32
  efforts to take Car Island back or just
• 41:35
  bomb the crap out of it cuz they
• 41:36
  couldn't stop that. And uh and I I've
• 41:39
  been saying this since this started that
• 41:41
  if if if we're foolish enough to go and
• 41:44
  think that we would control the Car
• 41:46
  Island, you can't control enough of the
• 41:50
  ground and the underground of those
• 41:54
  little um
• 41:56
  mini um submarines
• 41:59
  and the
• 42:02
  missile abilities of Iran in a way
• 42:06
  sufficient to protect protect those
• 42:08
  soldiers. That's a death wish, you know,
• 42:11
  right there. And uh and what is the US
• 42:14
  interest over there? Seriously. I mean,
• 42:17
  what is it?
• 42:19
  US if if the US hadn't have done this in
• 42:21
  the first place, the problem wouldn't
• 42:23
  exist. So, I I I don't know. I I
• 42:28
  I'd like to think that there was a plan
• 42:30
  from the beginning. I'm one of those who
• 42:33
  just doesn't believe there was one that
• 42:36
  uh they thought it was going to be
• 42:37
  easier than it was. That decapitation,
• 42:40
  we're going to cut the head off the
• 42:41
  snake and that's that. I don't believe
• 42:43
  that's uh been well thought out. Uh the
• 42:46
  director of national counterterrorism,
• 42:49
  Joe Kent, remember that guy who resigned
• 42:51
  uh last week um told the Washington Post
• 42:54
  on Monday that the American operation on
• 42:58
  Car Island would be a disaster and would
• 43:01
  amount to giving Iran a bunch of
• 43:05
  hostages on an island that they could
• 43:07
  barrage with drones and missiles.
• 43:10
  I don't agree with him completely, but I
• 43:13
  think it's a foolish move no matter how
• 43:15
  you slice it.
• 43:17
  Um,
• 43:18
  I don't know. Belgium is jumping in.
• 43:21
  Belgium has deployed military to protect
• 43:24
  Jewish sites in uh major cities around
• 43:28
  the country. Belgian authorities
• 43:30
  announced last week that the armed
• 43:32
  forces will begin helping the police
• 43:34
  guard Jewish places of worship
• 43:37
  and educational institutions
• 43:40
  uh in in the capital as well as an
• 43:42
  Antwerp and the lege and uh the
• 43:45
  decisions followed an attack on a
• 43:47
  synagogue and similar incidents in the
• 43:50
  Netherlands and after the launch of the
• 43:53
  US. I mean people are people are
• 43:55
  reacting here. On Monday uh Franken
• 43:58
  confirmed that the soldiers had begun
• 44:00
  their miss mission and posted a fold
• 44:03
  photo of soldiers in bulletproof vests
• 44:06
  and with rifles uh you know um I don't
• 44:11
  know.
• 44:13
  Let's see.
• 44:16
  right before that. Right before Trump
• 44:20
  posted about Iran yesterday morning and
• 44:26
  said that he and I thought and and I'm
• 44:28
  telling you I thought about this the
• 44:30
  minute I heard it and I heard it
• 44:33
  yesterday morning on this show is when I
• 44:36
  first saw it. Um I I I saw it. $580
• 44:44
  million
• 44:45
  in oil bets um were placed right before
• 44:51
  Trump made his statement that caused the
• 44:56
  price of oil to go down. So these would
• 44:58
  be put contracts, right? Uh, so oil
• 45:02
  traders placed more than half a billion
• 45:04
  dollars in bets minutes before Trump
• 45:09
  announced productive talks with Iran on
• 45:12
  Monday,
• 45:14
  said the Financial Times. The burst of
• 45:17
  activity followed a sharp price drop
• 45:21
  followed by a sharp price drop raised
• 45:24
  questions about the possible advanced
• 45:27
  knowledge among market participants.
• 45:29
  About
• 45:31
  6,200
• 45:32
  Brent and WTI futures contracts changed
• 45:37
  hands between 6:49 a.m. and 650 a.m. in
• 45:43
  New York. A 1 minute flurry worth $580
• 45:48
  million.
• 45:50
  Based on Financial Times calculations
• 45:53
  using Bloomberg data, volumes in both
• 45:56
  benchmarks, Brent and US West Texas
• 45:59
  Intermediate, spiked simultaneously
• 46:02
  about 27 seconds before the 650 a.m.,
• 46:06
  while S&P 500 futures surged right
• 46:09
  afterward. The trades were roughly 15
• 46:12
  minutes before Trump said on True Social
• 46:15
  that there had been productive
• 46:16
  conversations with Thrron to end the war
• 46:19
  in Iran. His 7:04 a.m. post triggered a
• 46:23
  sharp sell-off in energy markets while
• 46:26
  S&P 500 futures and European equities
• 46:29
  rallied as investors paired their bets
• 46:31
  into a prolonged conflict. It was
• 46:34
  unclear who was behind the trades, said
• 46:36
  the Financial Time. It's hard to prove
• 46:39
  causality, but you have to wonder who
• 46:42
  would have been relatively aggressive at
• 46:45
  selling futures at that point, 15
• 46:49
  minutes before Trump's post early in the
• 46:52
  morning on a Monday after he had just
• 46:54
  given a 24 or 48 hour deadline over the
• 46:59
  weekend to I mean,
• 47:02
  there's a lot of money to be made, a lot
• 47:05
  of money to be made in is and under the
• 47:08
  rules of CME Group, the Chicago base
• 47:10
  exchange, the Chicago Merchant
• 47:12
  Merkantail Exchange that host trading in
• 47:15
  benchmark Brent and WTI crude. Large
• 47:19
  trader positions must be disclosed
• 47:21
  daily, though the identity of specific
• 47:24
  traders is not publicly available in
• 47:26
  real time. The concentrated one minute
• 47:30
  spike stands out even against typically
• 47:33
  high trade volumes which is usually do
• 47:36
  run into the hundreds of thousands of
• 47:37
  contracts over a full session. The
• 47:40
  timing of the trades and who could have
• 47:42
  benefited raises questions though the
• 47:45
  White House pushes back denying that any
• 47:47
  administration official illegally
• 47:50
  profited from the insider knowledge. I
• 47:52
  wonder if uh Nancy Pelosi
• 47:56
  made any money of this. Every time
• 47:58
  there's some crap or Lindsey Graham,
• 48:00
  gee, everybody becomes a
• 48:02
  multi-millionaire as soon as they become
• 48:04
  elected into Congress. You know,
• 48:05
  everybody does it. So, as soon as
• 48:07
  somebody knows, I guarantee you they got
• 48:09
  somebody on the phone making trades. I
• 48:12
  have zero
• 48:14
  faith in the fact that these guys aren't
• 48:17
  doing it. None. I mean, zero. Uh the
• 48:21
  only focus of President Trump and Trump
• 48:24
  administration officials is doing what's
• 48:26
  best for the American people,
• 48:29
  spokesperson Kush Desai said, calling
• 48:32
  any suggestion of insider profiteering
• 48:35
  baseless and irresponsible.
• 48:38
  Iran's parliamentary speaker Muhammad
• 48:41
  beggar Gal Galibbah, the one that Shi uh
• 48:45
  Paul Kisham was talking about, denied
• 48:48
  any talks with Washington. sent global
• 48:51
  that sent global stocks lower and lifted
• 48:54
  the energy markets. He said fake news
• 48:57
  was being used to manipulate oil and
• 48:59
  financial markets and to help the United
• 49:02
  States and Israel escape the quagmire
• 49:06
  they face in energy pricing. Now that I
• 49:10
  believe, you know, whether it's to
• 49:13
  benefit any particular person, I have no
• 49:16
  doubt that if Trump thought that was the
• 49:19
  u uh the best thing to do for America,
• 49:23
  he would do it. If he, you know, if he
• 49:24
  heard if he's listening to Sam's show
• 49:27
  and Sam is sitting there going, "Man,
• 49:29
  four weeks ago, four short weeks ago, I
• 49:32
  was, you know, uh, praising the fact
• 49:34
  that I was only paying $2.49 49 a
• 49:36
  gallon. And on my trip to Florida, I
• 49:38
  paid four bucks a gallon
• 49:42
  for regular unled. And uh you know, I
• 49:46
  fill up like every third or fourth tank.
• 49:48
  That was like $430,
• 49:51
  something like that. It might have been
• 49:53
  $4.40.
• 49:56
  Crazy. Um, but I have no doubt that if
• 50:00
  Trump thought that was the best thing to
• 50:02
  do, he might make a post on that and go,
• 50:04
  "Listen," and him saying, "You know
• 50:07
  what? I could lower the price of uh of
• 50:09
  oil by saying this early on a Monday
• 50:11
  morning and my troops aren't going to
• 50:13
  get there all this week anyway. It's
• 50:15
  going to take 5 days for them to get
• 50:17
  there." And uh, you know, they're This
• 50:20
  is how I can bring the price of oil down
• 50:22
  right now. that I I could almost bet he
• 50:27
  would do that. Why wouldn't he? But uh
• 50:29
  you know, whoever makes the money, you
• 50:31
  don't care, you know, and but if there
• 50:33
  were people that actually knew about it
• 50:35
  and were going to make some money off
• 50:37
  it, well, it wouldn't surprise me if
• 50:40
  somebody took that. So, oil prices
• 50:42
  rebounded, went right back up the next
• 50:45
  day, Tuesday. Uh Brent is now back at
• 50:50
  103 a barrel and the other WTI is 91
• 50:54
  because now it's still uncertain.
• 50:58
  Isn't that crazy? So Russia yesterday,
• 51:03
  let's see, there was big news out of
• 51:05
  Russia saying that their competitor, so
• 51:09
  there was all kinds of um
• 51:13
  news about a some sort of rocket going
• 51:19
  across
• 51:21
  the skies in northern Russia.
• 51:24
  Come to find out
• 51:26
  they announced that their and I forget
• 51:30
  what it's called unfortunately
• 51:33
  but their answer to Starlink
• 51:38
  was uh
• 51:41
  uh discussed and they have sent a they
• 51:44
  sent a uh couple of satellites up there.
• 51:49
  So they're and they they are now
• 51:50
  starting to deploy their own above
• 51:53
  country uh competition for Starlink and
• 51:59
  they've been pushing it to go faster
• 52:01
  because uh Elon Musk cut them off has
• 52:04
  gotten better at cutting off their uh
• 52:07
  their access even in Ukraine with stolen
• 52:12
  Ukrainian terminals to uh use Starlink.
• 52:19
  And so there I've been watching and
• 52:22
  everybody knows that I I like to follow
• 52:24
  what's going on and I've been paying
• 52:25
  attention to it and the fact is that the
• 52:29
  Russians have not been advancing as
• 52:32
  quickly lately depending on the region
• 52:35
  and uh Ukraine has been taking deep
• 52:39
  strikes inside of Russia with drones. So
• 52:42
  the big discussion yesterday was the US
• 52:46
  supplying because one so think about
• 52:50
  this Ukraine has zero space technology.
• 52:54
  They got nothing. They have zero and
• 52:57
  they cannot um they don't have any
• 53:02
  ability to have satellite communications
• 53:06
  or anything like that. It just doesn't
• 53:08
  exist. Right. and
• 53:12
  not in Ukraine, but yesterday on social
• 53:16
  media, inside of Telegram, on uh uh uh
• 53:20
  Instagram and all those things that
• 53:22
  Ukraine likes to put things out on, they
• 53:25
  were showing satellite pictures of
• 53:29
  Ukraine
• 53:31
  and their uh 400 or so drones that went
• 53:36
  deep inside of Russia and all the way to
• 53:41
  St. Petersburg. Now, that's hundreds of
• 53:44
  miles. That's a long way to one of the
• 53:48
  biggest ports
• 53:50
  and oil port and oil supply
• 53:54
  uh zone, loading, unloading, storage,
• 53:57
  massive storage facilities, and blew up
• 54:01
  a pot of Russian oil supply outside
• 54:06
  of St. Petersburg right on the um Baltic
• 54:09
  Sea there and magically
• 54:14
  the satellites showed the moment that
• 54:17
  the fire was there. So somebody and it
• 54:20
  had to be the US has parked uh these
• 54:24
  satellites above it and is helping
• 54:26
  Ukraine with the tracking data and all
• 54:29
  the stuff in real time and taking taking
• 54:32
  video of the whole thing. And so this is
• 54:35
  all over social media and all over
• 54:38
  Russian uh news that the US is doing
• 54:41
  this. Now, everybody says that Russia
• 54:44
  and China are giving um Iran the ability
• 54:49
  to to to bomb or uh find letting them
• 54:54
  use satellites uh Chinese and Russian
• 54:57
  satellites to
• 55:00
  uh scout out um sites in the Middle
• 55:04
  East, including in Israel, right? And
• 55:08
  and and they've been condemned for that.
• 55:10
  You know, here's the West. That's this
• 55:12
  isn't your conflict. What are you doing
• 55:14
  there? Well, once again, rules for thee,
• 55:18
  but not for me. And it's and I don't
• 55:21
  know. I I don't agree with any of it on
• 55:24
  any side. You know, I wish all the wars
• 55:26
  would just quit, right? I I I don't
• 55:28
  think uh but I'm a realist. You know,
• 55:31
  people
• 55:33
  on the US side, we love war. You know,
• 55:36
  we we've been in more war than anybody
• 55:38
  else in the last 80 years. far more. I
• 55:41
  mean far more. And we bring along our uh
• 55:44
  our lackey in Europe with usually when
• 55:46
  we go um you know I don't know there's a
• 55:52
  a interesting interesting world we live
• 55:56
  in uh an oil refinery in Texas.
• 56:01
  Get this. A massive oil refinery
• 56:04
  explosion in Port Arthur, Texas. Now,
• 56:08
  Port Arthur is a uh you know, it's
• 56:11
  obviously a seapport. Footage from the
• 56:13
  eyewitness shows flames and thick smoke
• 56:15
  billing above the the Valero facility.
• 56:19
  Police believe an industrial heater
• 56:22
  caused the blaze. Local residents
• 56:25
  described hearing a loud boom and their
• 56:27
  home shaking miles away. First
• 56:30
  responders were dispatched to the plant
• 56:33
  and uh uh the explosion Monday evening.
• 56:36
  shelter in place was issued for the west
• 56:38
  side of Port Arthur. Um the local
• 56:42
  sheriff said authorities were
• 56:44
  responding.
• 56:46
  Uh the Port Arthur Fire Department
• 56:48
  confirmed there was an incident at this
• 56:50
  facility and the refinery is one of the
• 56:53
  major refining sites on the Texas Gulf
• 56:56
  Coast with crude oil processing of up to
• 56:59
  430,000
• 57:01
  barrels a day. So fuel prices in the US
• 57:05
  are already spiking before the incident
• 57:08
  in Port Arthur. The American uh
• 57:10
  Automobile Association said the national
• 57:12
  average for a gallon of regular gas rose
• 57:17
  to $3.95
• 57:19
  on March 23rd, up from 295 before the US
• 57:24
  and Israel launched their bombing
• 57:26
  campaign on February 28th.
• 57:33
  So
• 57:34
  the military and political dynamic
• 57:37
  around Iran has entered a more dangerous
• 57:39
  phase, but the diplomatic choreography
• 57:42
  now suggests that Washington isn't
• 57:44
  thinking in terms of punishment and
• 57:46
  pressure. They're thinking about
• 57:47
  economics. Since March 20th, the pattern
• 57:50
  is unmistakable. The US and Israel have
• 57:52
  continued to widen the scope of their
• 57:55
  campaign against Iranian strategic
• 57:57
  infrastructure, their bomb and nuclear
• 57:59
  facilities. Iran is answering by pushing
• 58:02
  retaliation toward symbols of Israeli
• 58:05
  nuclear deterrence. Somebody announced
• 58:07
  yesterday, and it's pretty funny because
• 58:09
  uh Israel has never admitted that they
• 58:11
  have nukes, but it's a, you know, not a
• 58:14
  very well hidden secret. They're not any
• 58:16
  part of non-prololiferation. They're
• 58:18
  allowed to have nukes, but they're not
• 58:20
  part of any non-prololiferation deal.
• 58:22
  They're just able to do whatever they
• 58:24
  want. Nobody would ever question that
• 58:27
  Israel gets nukes and they just
• 58:29
  developed them on their own. There was
• 58:31
  no stop about, hey man, we can't give
• 58:33
  them. Hell, we probably helped them get
• 58:35
  them. We probably just slid them the
• 58:38
  secrets underneath and made sure that
• 58:40
  they had all the uranium that they could
• 58:42
  use, right? And uh you know, we want
• 58:44
  them to be able to bomb the hell out of
• 58:46
  any part of of uh the Middle East they
• 58:49
  want, right? Uh the most revealing
• 58:51
  episode last weekend was Iran strike on
• 58:54
  Deona. That's in uh Israel. I told you
• 58:57
  about that uh yesterday and a little bit
• 58:58
  earlier in this show. Reuters reported
• 59:00
  that Iranian missiles hit the southern
• 59:02
  Israeli cities of Deona and Iranian
• 59:06
  state link messages frame the attack as
• 59:08
  a strike on military and security
• 59:10
  related targets in South Israel. Now
• 59:15
  they say do the Iranians that uh demona
• 59:21
  is inseparable from Israel's undeclared
• 59:25
  nuclear capability. And whether tan
• 59:28
  intended to direct a military message, a
• 59:31
  political signal, or both, the meaning
• 59:35
  was pretty clear. Iran was demonstrating
• 59:38
  that if its own nuclear infrastructure
• 59:40
  is being treated as a legitimate target,
• 59:43
  it is prepared to impose new and
• 59:46
  strategic costs on the Israeli side by
• 59:49
  moving the conflict closer to Israel's
• 59:52
  most sensitive geography, nuclear, by
• 59:56
  the way. And this retaliation didn't
• 59:59
  emerge in a vacuum. On March 21st, the
• 1:00:01
  US and Israel launched attack on Natan's
• 1:00:04
  uranium enrichment facility. This wasn't
• 1:00:07
  another round in a familiar exchange. It
• 1:00:09
  was a move against one of the core nodes
• 1:00:11
  of Iran's nuclear program. And so
• 1:00:14
  against one of the central pillars of
• 1:00:16
  the uh is uh Islamic Republic strategic
• 1:00:19
  identity and bargaining capacity and
• 1:00:21
  once Natans was struck again the logic
• 1:00:25
  of reciprocal signaling is you know just
• 1:00:28
  keeps going up. You know, it's always
• 1:00:30
  oneupsmanship, always. Thran could not
• 1:00:33
  afford a response that looked routine.
• 1:00:34
  It needed one that restored the
• 1:00:36
  principle of deterrence
• 1:00:40
  by demonstrating that Israel has also
• 1:00:43
  nuclear geography and that it's no
• 1:00:46
  longer outside the circle of
• 1:00:48
  retaliation. So on March 20th, the war
• 1:00:51
  has therefore been moving on two tracks
• 1:00:53
  at once. The first is operational
• 1:00:56
  escalation. The second is political
• 1:00:59
  reposition on the escalation size. Uh
• 1:01:02
  Reuters reports uh widening conflict in
• 1:01:05
  which attacks on energies energy
• 1:01:08
  structure, missiles, military and
• 1:01:10
  nuclear sites are interacting with one
• 1:01:13
  another in a way that magnifies the
• 1:01:16
  regional risk.
• 1:01:17
  um earlier strikes on Iran's South Pars
• 1:01:21
  gas field which is owned jointly with um
• 1:01:24
  Qatar and the Asai processing hub had
• 1:01:28
  already added a fuel a full energy
• 1:01:30
  dimension to the war that matters
• 1:01:31
  because energy infrastructure
• 1:01:34
  at least in this area is not just
• 1:01:35
  another class of targets. It is the
• 1:01:37
  point at which regional warfare causes
• 1:01:41
  global economic problems. And so this is
• 1:01:45
  the background for Donald Trump's
• 1:01:48
  ultimatum regarding Iranian energy
• 1:01:51
  targets. Reuters reported on March 22nd
• 1:01:53
  that Trump threatened Iran with strikes
• 1:01:56
  on power plants. While Iran said, "Well,
• 1:01:59
  do that and we'll retaliate in kind
• 1:02:01
  against Gulf Energy and water
• 1:02:04
  infrastructure if the attacks go ahead."
• 1:02:06
  In other words, Washington moves from a
• 1:02:08
  coercive rhetoric toward the edge of a
• 1:02:10
  decision that could have, you know,
• 1:02:13
  taken a regional war to a direct
• 1:02:16
  systemic shock for the entire area. Not
• 1:02:19
  just for oil and gas either, but
• 1:02:21
  maritime security,
• 1:02:23
  uh, water for everybody and allied
• 1:02:27
  infrastructure all the way across the
• 1:02:29
  Gulf. And then yesterday, Trump
• 1:02:32
  announced it because negotiations had
• 1:02:35
  already been underway for 2 days.
• 1:02:38
  H were they? And because there were, in
• 1:02:41
  his words, major points of agreement
• 1:02:44
  that he could postpone a decision on
• 1:02:46
  military strikes for another 5 days.
• 1:02:49
  Reuters, Axios, Washington Post, CBS,
• 1:02:52
  and other outlets all reflect the same
• 1:02:55
  central fact. The White House was no
• 1:02:58
  longer speaking the language of imminent
• 1:03:00
  escalation. It was trying to construct a
• 1:03:03
  political case for delay. Now, I believe
• 1:03:06
  it has something to do with the fact you
• 1:03:08
  can't get any soldiers over there
• 1:03:10
  anyway, not anytime quick. The Iranian
• 1:03:14
  response was immediate. Thrron denied
• 1:03:18
  the negotiations were taking place. Said
• 1:03:20
  that no meaningful communications had
• 1:03:22
  occurred with Washington. Iran publicly
• 1:03:26
  rejected Trump's characterization of
• 1:03:28
  talks and Iranian officials stressed the
• 1:03:30
  country had not entered into any kind of
• 1:03:33
  of channel that the American side was
• 1:03:37
  implying negotiation
• 1:03:39
  reduction of hostilities anything this
• 1:03:43
  denial is central to understanding
• 1:03:45
  what's going on at present tron does not
• 1:03:48
  want to give Trump an easy diplomatic
• 1:03:51
  headline particularly one that can be
• 1:03:54
  presented domestically in the US as
• 1:03:57
  proof that we're winning, as proof that
• 1:03:59
  military pressure has bent Iran to
• 1:04:02
  submission. That is why the mediation
• 1:04:05
  story matters. Axio said that Turkey,
• 1:04:08
  Egypt, and Pakistan have been passing
• 1:04:11
  messages between Washington, Tyran, and
• 1:04:14
  that senior
• 1:04:15
  officials from all three of these states
• 1:04:17
  have had separate contacts with White
• 1:04:19
  House envoy uh Steven Witkoff and
• 1:04:22
  Iranian foreign minister Abbas Aragshi.
• 1:04:27
  This shows that diplomacy is allegedly
• 1:04:29
  being rebuilt through a distributed
• 1:04:31
  architecture rather than a single
• 1:04:33
  channel. This kind of mediation allows
• 1:04:35
  both side to test terms, map red lines,
• 1:04:38
  lower the temperature without paying a
• 1:04:41
  political price of direct
• 1:04:42
  acknowledgement that something is going
• 1:04:44
  on. It's diplomacy under conditions of
• 1:04:47
  mutual denial. And that is often the
• 1:04:50
  form diplomacy takes when both
• 1:04:51
  governments still need the conflict
• 1:04:53
  narrative for domestic reasons. I don't
• 1:04:57
  think we need it for direct reasons. I
• 1:04:59
  think we need to dial it down some here
• 1:05:02
  locally cuz the bulk of Americans are
• 1:05:05
  not for this uh conflict, not remotely.
• 1:05:08
  At the same time, there are parallel
• 1:05:10
  indications that Oman and Qatar are
• 1:05:13
  trying to shift the conflict back toward
• 1:05:15
  a diplomatic track too. Reuters reported
• 1:05:18
  earlier mediation efforts by Oman as
• 1:05:20
  well as repeated Qatari calls for
• 1:05:22
  deescalation and a political solution.
• 1:05:25
  Doha publicly emphasizes the need for
• 1:05:28
  dialogue and uh Oman has long remained
• 1:05:31
  one of the few channels acceptable to
• 1:05:33
  both Washington and Thran.
• 1:05:36
  Even where those efforts have stalled,
• 1:05:38
  been rejected or publicly minimized,
• 1:05:41
  they form part of the same regional
• 1:05:43
  pattern. medi med well intermediaries
• 1:05:48
  understand that once energy
• 1:05:50
  infrastructure is a routine target set
• 1:05:53
  the war is no longer going to be
• 1:05:55
  contained to confrontation
• 1:05:58
  between Israel and Iran it's going to
• 1:06:03
  threaten the entire Gulf so from this
• 1:06:06
  angle Trump's 5-day pause is less a sign
• 1:06:10
  of his confidence than a sign of
• 1:06:12
  necessity He needs a way to stop. He
• 1:06:16
  needs a way out and he don't have one
• 1:06:18
  right now. Or at least freeze the
• 1:06:21
  current phase of the conflict without
• 1:06:22
  looking as though he stepped back. He
• 1:06:24
  still has to be the, you know, the
• 1:06:26
  biggest uh bully in the room. He's got
• 1:06:28
  to be. That's the central political
• 1:06:31
  dilemma that he's facing right now. A
• 1:06:34
  simple deescalation would be easy for
• 1:06:37
  his opponents to frame as a hesitation
• 1:06:39
  on his part. An uncontrolled escalation
• 1:06:42
  carries obvious military and economic
• 1:06:44
  risk. Financial especially especially if
• 1:06:48
  it expands in the sustained campaign
• 1:06:50
  against energy network or triggers
• 1:06:53
  further disruption around Hormuz.
• 1:06:57
  Yeah. Trump requires something more
• 1:06:59
  specific than peace. He has to have
• 1:07:02
  victory.
• 1:07:04
  He has to keep on saying we won. He he
• 1:07:08
  hell he declared victory two days in we
• 1:07:11
  win. You know that's it. If we win, why
• 1:07:14
  in the world 24 days later are we still
• 1:07:18
  fighting? Why in the world are we still
• 1:07:20
  exchanging um missiles back and forth?
• 1:07:25
  That victory that he's uh that elusive
• 1:07:27
  victory doesn't have to be substantive
• 1:07:29
  in strategic term. It just has to be
• 1:07:32
  legible to those who want him to win to
• 1:07:35
  have a victory politically. Trump needs
• 1:07:37
  to be able to tell the electorate that
• 1:07:40
  force produced results
• 1:07:44
  even though they haven't. That Iran was
• 1:07:47
  pushed toward concessions and American
• 1:07:49
  resolve restored deterrence and that he
• 1:07:53
  chose the timing of restraint from a
• 1:07:56
  position of strength, not because he had
• 1:07:58
  to. This is why the White House has
• 1:08:01
  focused on progress, productive contact,
• 1:08:05
  major points of agreement, and it went
• 1:08:08
  from one extreme to the other over the
• 1:08:13
  course of 24 hours. It is building a
• 1:08:16
  narrative
• 1:08:18
  for a pause that can still be marketed
• 1:08:20
  as success. There's a harder reason for
• 1:08:24
  this as well. Energy markets are too
• 1:08:27
  close to the center of this war. The
• 1:08:29
  conflict has disrupted output, sent
• 1:08:31
  prices upward globally
• 1:08:34
  like what I was telling you about
• 1:08:36
  Pakistan and people not being able to
• 1:08:39
  get anywhere. Do you know an interesting
• 1:08:42
  story in Pakistan? Okay, they have huge
• 1:08:45
  soccer fields, huge cricket fields and
• 1:08:48
  the season is upon it, right? So they
• 1:08:50
  play cricket over there and they have
• 1:08:53
  huge statements. Guess what they're
• 1:08:55
  doing? They
• 1:08:58
  even going on public transport there
• 1:09:01
  will be no fans in the stadiums. Why?
• 1:09:06
  Because there they have to reduce the
• 1:09:10
  amount of guests. They don't want people
• 1:09:12
  coming there. They don't want uh any
• 1:09:14
  cooking to go on. They want people to
• 1:09:16
  stay at home and watch them. I mean,
• 1:09:18
  they're going through some stuff. Okay.
• 1:09:20
  We're we're we're we've gone up, you
• 1:09:22
  know, by 25%. you know, the how much how
• 1:09:25
  much our gas costs. But over there, they
• 1:09:28
  aren't even allowed to go to to go. The
• 1:09:31
  the government curtailed it and said
• 1:09:33
  that nope, these these uh venues are
• 1:09:36
  closed. We still want the games. And
• 1:09:38
  they they held the games which used to
• 1:09:40
  be held all over the country are now
• 1:09:42
  only held in two uh cities. All the
• 1:09:46
  games will be held in two cities and
• 1:09:48
  then televised and no fans in the
• 1:09:51
  stadium. None.
• 1:09:54
  And so people can still enjoy their
• 1:09:56
  cricket, but they got to do it from
• 1:09:58
  home. Nobody can go anywhere to to watch
• 1:10:00
  a cricket game, soccer, too. You know,
• 1:10:02
  that's what they've been doing. So the
• 1:10:04
  conflict is is disrupted output. Prices
• 1:10:07
  are astronomical. Strikes on energy
• 1:10:10
  facilities across the Gulf highlight
• 1:10:12
  just how quick regional confrontation
• 1:10:16
  tears out a global market emergency. I
• 1:10:19
  don't think America significantly
• 1:10:21
  thought about it before they did this. I
• 1:10:23
  really don't. Or the arrogance just like
• 1:10:27
  in in uh Ukraine. Oh gez, all we got to
• 1:10:30
  do is push. We're the West. You know, we
• 1:10:33
  we helped Ukraine build a million man
• 1:10:35
  army. Where is it now? Friends and
• 1:10:38
  neighbors. Where is it? Same thing's
• 1:10:41
  going on in the Gulf. The expected
• 1:10:45
  result didn't occur as quickly as they
• 1:10:48
  thought it would overnight. And in fact,
• 1:10:52
  it could go on for quite a bit longer.
• 1:10:54
  Washington cannot treat escalation
• 1:10:57
  against Iranian power and energy assets
• 1:11:00
  as a purely military option. It's a
• 1:11:04
  decision about inflation,
• 1:11:06
  shipping, vulnerability of their own
• 1:11:09
  allies, and the political economy of the
• 1:11:12
  US itself. You got people like Samuel
• 1:11:15
  Trap saying, "What in the hell is this?
• 1:11:18
  Why in the world am I paying more than a
• 1:11:21
  dollar more a gallon than I was paying a
• 1:11:25
  month ago? You destroyed everything that
• 1:11:28
  that you had done in
• 1:11:31
  this year. So 2025, I thought Trump, you
• 1:11:35
  know, there were things I was unhappy
• 1:11:36
  with, but I thought he had done a pretty
• 1:11:38
  good job. You know, I mean, things were
• 1:11:40
  looking pretty good. I liked most of the
• 1:11:43
  the
• 1:11:44
  US things that he has done. I've never
• 1:11:47
  been much of a Trump fan as far as
• 1:11:50
  international
• 1:11:52
  um politics.
• 1:11:54
  International diplomacy is not a
• 1:11:57
  business deal. It just isn't. It's a
• 1:12:00
  different set of skills. It's a
• 1:12:02
  different reality. And I think
• 1:12:06
  he is uh less than stellar at this. You
• 1:12:11
  can't treat people like you're the real
• 1:12:15
  estate mogul from New York when you're
• 1:12:18
  supposed to be the president of the
• 1:12:19
  United States. And and you know, he's
• 1:12:22
  he's dictated to everyone around the
• 1:12:24
  world what they will do. And I think
• 1:12:29
  he's given up on some of the key things
• 1:12:32
  that uh he said he wouldn't do, namely
• 1:12:36
  war. I'm the president of peace. I
• 1:12:38
  played that for you last week. should
• 1:12:40
  play it again because there's, you know,
• 1:12:43
  you can go out on YouTube and find this
• 1:12:45
  video. It's called whatever it is, four
• 1:12:47
  minutes of uh Trump saying uh Trump
• 1:12:51
  saying no more war. Uh reality is
• 1:12:54
  especially important for Trump. He is
• 1:12:56
  not simply managing a war. He's managing
• 1:12:58
  domestic consequences
• 1:13:00
  of war in a political system that is
• 1:13:03
  quite sensitive
• 1:13:06
  to fuel prices, market volatility,
• 1:13:10
  perceptions of strategic international
• 1:13:14
  drift.
• 1:13:16
  A strike package against Iranian energy
• 1:13:19
  infrastructure might satisfy the logic
• 1:13:22
  of coercion in a narrow military sense.
• 1:13:27
  But it could also ignite exactly the
• 1:13:29
  kind of market turbulence that weakens
• 1:13:31
  his broader political position. The
• 1:13:34
  result is a familiar but quite unstable
• 1:13:38
  pattern. The White House escalates
• 1:13:40
  rhetoric to maximize leverage, then
• 1:13:42
  searches for an exit ramp before the
• 1:13:45
  economic aftershock
• 1:13:47
  becomes more damaging than the original
• 1:13:49
  problem was.
• 1:13:52
  The contradiction, however, is that Iran
• 1:13:54
  sees this vulnerability, too. Thran
• 1:13:56
  understands that Washington wants
• 1:13:58
  coercive leverage without a prolonged
• 1:14:00
  energy crisis. That makes American
• 1:14:03
  urgency quite visible. And once urgency
• 1:14:05
  is visible, it can be used against them.
• 1:14:07
  This is one reason Iran has publicly
• 1:14:09
  denied the talks that Trump says
• 1:14:13
  occurred. But by rejecting the image of
• 1:14:15
  active negotiation, Trump's Trump Trump
• 1:14:18
  is denied the public relations uh
• 1:14:21
  deescalation
• 1:14:24
  dividend that he would get. Now, the
• 1:14:26
  price dividend, you know, lasted for a
• 1:14:28
  little while, but then went right back
• 1:14:30
  up after Iran denied it. It also
• 1:14:32
  preserves Iran's own claim that
• 1:14:34
  resistance, not accommodation, forced
• 1:14:36
  Washington to hesitate. In this contest,
• 1:14:39
  native control of uh the narrative is
• 1:14:43
  not secondary to the military action.
• 1:14:45
  It's part of the battlefield. And we
• 1:14:48
  haven't even discussed Israel. Uh for
• 1:14:52
  its part, it reads the current moment
• 1:14:55
  through quite a bit of a different lens.
• 1:14:59
  Israeli decision makers. The value of
• 1:15:02
  continued pressure on Iran for nuclear
• 1:15:05
  and strategic purposes is obvious every
• 1:15:08
  day. The sustained attrition degrades
• 1:15:10
  capability, complicates recovery, and
• 1:15:13
  creates new opportunities for future
• 1:15:15
  leverage and future stealing and opening
• 1:15:17
  up new territories for for uh Israelis
• 1:15:20
  to go in and beat the crap out of people
• 1:15:22
  and take their stuff uh take their land.
• 1:15:26
  Israel can accept a higher degree of
• 1:15:28
  regional tension if it believes the
• 1:15:30
  campaign is going to produce some sort
• 1:15:32
  of long-term security effect. But
• 1:15:34
  Washington also has to reckon with a
• 1:15:36
  alliance management, Gulf stability,
• 1:15:39
  energy market, domestic macroeconomics.
• 1:15:41
  That difference does not automatically
• 1:15:43
  produce rupture, but it does create
• 1:15:46
  divergence in the preferred end state.
• 1:15:49
  This is why the period since March the
• 1:15:51
  20th matters so much. It's only been
• 1:15:54
  three and a half days, but it exposes
• 1:15:57
  the limits of purely military actions.
• 1:16:03
  The strikes continue. Iran retaliates.
• 1:16:06
  Trump threatens new attacks. Iran
• 1:16:09
  answers with warnings of their own. And
• 1:16:11
  almost immediately afterward, a
• 1:16:13
  diplomatic scramble is accelerated
• 1:16:16
  through multiple mediators. This is an
• 1:16:18
  instructive for the rest of us. The war
• 1:16:20
  did not produce clean or clear hierarchy
• 1:16:24
  of dominance. It produces a
• 1:16:26
  confrontation in which each side can
• 1:16:28
  still impose significant cost upon the
• 1:16:31
  other. An escalation threatened to
• 1:16:34
  damage actors, you know, will occur well
• 1:16:37
  beyond the immediate battlefield. You
• 1:16:40
  know, they're going to, you know, keep
• 1:16:42
  threatening the the other countries. Uh
• 1:16:45
  Europe was all up in arms yesterday cuz
• 1:16:48
  uh I forget the name of the I forget the
• 1:16:52
  name of the island in the Indian Sea.
• 1:16:54
  Diego
• 1:16:57
  I can't remember but it's like 4,000
• 1:16:58
  kilometers from Iran and it's in in the
• 1:17:01
  Indian Sea and uh it's a US um well the
• 1:17:05
  US has been begging um Kirst to uh let
• 1:17:10
  them have it and he initially said no.
• 1:17:13
  And then Trump Trump posts a comedy
• 1:17:17
  thing of him. And I mean, he's insulted
• 1:17:19
  him twice. Trump has downright insulted
• 1:17:22
  Kier Starmer twice. And Kier Starmer uh
• 1:17:26
  still gave him um the uh airfields, let
• 1:17:31
  him do it. And then Iran bombed it,
• 1:17:34
  those those airfields. And it's 4,000
• 1:17:37
  kilometers from Iran. And so now Europe
• 1:17:40
  is all up in arms and especially in
• 1:17:42
  Ukraine because Ukraine is saying,
• 1:17:44
  "Geez, they could bomb us from from Iran
• 1:17:48
  right now. Iran has that capability."
• 1:17:51
  And uh uh you know, Europe is all
• 1:17:54
  freaked out about it. And uh so for
• 1:17:56
  Trump, the imperative is not simply to
• 1:17:58
  continue or to stop. It's to stop in a
• 1:18:01
  way that looks like he
• 1:18:04
  caused the stop. you know that he needs
• 1:18:07
  to preserve his image of pressure while
• 1:18:09
  increasing you know the weight of
• 1:18:12
  mediation he has to claim that Iran
• 1:18:15
  begged him to stop first because that's
• 1:18:18
  what he's been saying uh even if the
• 1:18:21
  practical mechanism uh is contact
• 1:18:24
  through third countries like Pakistan
• 1:18:27
  like Turkey he needs a diplomatic pause
• 1:18:29
  that he can sell as a product of his
• 1:18:32
  coercive success I I I told Obama's
• 1:18:35
  going to stop him and he needs it
• 1:18:36
  quickly because every day of uncertainty
• 1:18:40
  and energy raises the economic and
• 1:18:42
  political cost of keeping the war open
• 1:18:45
  ended the next few days. You know, let's
• 1:18:48
  check out what happens this week. If the
• 1:18:51
  uh if the uh Marine Expeditionary Forces
• 1:18:53
  and the 82nd Airborne arrive and take
• 1:18:57
  over Kark, it's all a scam. This has all
• 1:18:59
  been a scam and that's that. So this has
• 1:19:02
  all been just talk and uh it'll it'll be
• 1:19:06
  uh it'll be there. Uh you know next few
• 1:19:12
  days real question isn't whether either
• 1:19:15
  side can escalate. They can for sure.
• 1:19:18
  The real question is whether the
• 1:19:20
  immediation
• 1:19:21
  efforts, Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Oman,
• 1:19:26
  Qatar and anybody else can produce
• 1:19:29
  enough diplomatic
• 1:19:31
  u leverage for Washington and Thran to
• 1:19:34
  step back without either one openly
• 1:19:37
  admitting defeat or retreat. That is
• 1:19:41
  often how crisis crises are managed. But
• 1:19:45
  Iran doesn't want something that doesn't
• 1:19:47
  finalize this. They already did that
• 1:19:50
  last year and this one started without
• 1:19:55
  without anything. You know, it just
• 1:19:57
  started. They were in the middle of
• 1:19:59
  negotiations and right in the middle of
• 1:20:01
  it and everybody knew that at least on
• 1:20:04
  the American side that Israel was going
• 1:20:05
  to bomb the crap out of them anyway.
• 1:20:08
  whether or not you know there was
• 1:20:09
  success or anything like it that's just
• 1:20:14
  how it went and uh that's unfortunate
• 1:20:17
  really you know I having worked in that
• 1:20:20
  field having sat at the table with our
• 1:20:25
  own nuclear weapons treaties both INF
• 1:20:31
  uh the threshold testban treaty and the
• 1:20:34
  start of start treaties
• 1:20:38
  If you I'm not saying that you should be
• 1:20:42
  foolish enough to believe every single
• 1:20:44
  word the guy across the table from you
• 1:20:47
  is saying because each country has its
• 1:20:50
  own um
• 1:20:53
  its own u interests at heart.
• 1:20:57
  But
• 1:20:59
  if you don't if you can't at least agree
• 1:21:02
  to be
• 1:21:04
  somewhat
• 1:21:07
  transparent with these guys, if you
• 1:21:11
  don't have the same interest, you
• 1:21:13
  shouldn't be sitting at the table. And
• 1:21:15
  right now, Iran has no reason to believe
• 1:21:19
  anything that Israel's going to say.
• 1:21:22
  Israel will start this back up in
• 1:21:24
  another year. No problem. they'll just
• 1:21:26
  wait and then they'll do it again and
• 1:21:28
  then everybody will blame Iran again.
• 1:21:32
  That's just that's just how it goes, you
• 1:21:34
  know. And and and I'm not saying they're
• 1:21:36
  not to blame. I'm just saying, you know,
• 1:21:39
  uh uh Israel definitely gets away with
• 1:21:41
  it for sure. But what is now visible is
• 1:21:44
  that Trump is looking for a reason to
• 1:21:46
  stop the conflict before it imposes
• 1:21:48
  costs that he doesn't control. But he
• 1:21:51
  can't just stop. He has to show success
• 1:21:54
  first and so far he cannot. That is why
• 1:21:58
  the language of progress has appeared so
• 1:22:00
  suddenly. That's what I believe. Uh that
• 1:22:04
  is why the 5-day delay matters and this
• 1:22:07
  is why the denials from Trhan are
• 1:22:09
  equally important. One side is trying to
• 1:22:11
  manufacture a victory before
• 1:22:14
  deescalation. The other is trying to
• 1:22:15
  deny that a victory is still uh leaving
• 1:22:18
  room for maneuvering. Between these two
• 1:22:21
  lies the present diplomatic opening
• 1:22:24
  which is very narrow but also real
• 1:22:27
  shaped by oil optics and political
• 1:22:32
  calculation.
• 1:22:34
  In the end, the Trump administration
• 1:22:36
  appears to have walked into a trap set
• 1:22:38
  by a political logic of Israel's current
• 1:22:42
  leadership. I believe that you know this
• 1:22:45
  this is not America's war and never was.
• 1:22:50
  This is a conflict in which there are in
• 1:22:52
  reality no true winners of any of the
• 1:22:56
  major states directly exposed to the
• 1:22:59
  consequences of it. The United States is
• 1:23:03
  strategically overstretched. There's
• 1:23:06
  higher energy prices and a new cycle, a
• 1:23:09
  brand new one of regional instability.
• 1:23:13
  Iran faces mounting military, economic,
• 1:23:16
  and political pressure with no guarantee
• 1:23:19
  that endurance alone will improve its
• 1:23:21
  position. But they're in a what do they
• 1:23:23
  call it? An existential fight. That's
• 1:23:27
  what they believe. They believe, you
• 1:23:29
  know what, if we agree to something
• 1:23:30
  right now, here's exactly what's going
• 1:23:32
  to happen. year from now,
• 1:23:35
  Israel is going to come bomb us again
• 1:23:37
  and the US is going to jump in again and
• 1:23:39
  blame it all on us
• 1:23:42
  right in the middle of negotiations. You
• 1:23:44
  know, just like Israel has a habit of
• 1:23:46
  doing. You know, you don't like what's
• 1:23:48
  going on or you don't like a leader, you
• 1:23:50
  bomb Qatar to blow the guy up or try to.
• 1:23:53
  The wider region is forced to absorb the
• 1:23:56
  shock of insecurity, market disruptions,
• 1:24:00
  the danger of uncontrolled escalation.
• 1:24:03
  Even ordinary Israelis are unlikely to
• 1:24:06
  emerge from this confrontation from a a
• 1:24:09
  position of strength because prolonged
• 1:24:12
  war also means for them fear, loss,
• 1:24:14
  economic strain, normalization of
• 1:24:16
  permanent emergency. But for the
• 1:24:18
  ultraright forces in the Israeli
• 1:24:22
  government, that picture is different.
• 1:24:24
  For them, the conflict can still be
• 1:24:27
  presented as a form of political victory
• 1:24:30
  because Netanyahu has already said,
• 1:24:33
  "I've been waiting for this for 40
• 1:24:35
  years. I've been wanting to do this for
• 1:24:36
  four. I've been threatening to do it and
• 1:24:38
  telling everybody what I'm going to do
• 1:24:40
  for 40 years. Why was anybody surprised
• 1:24:43
  really?" And we all knew that the US was
• 1:24:45
  going to jump right in bed with them.
• 1:24:46
  And that's exactly what we did because
• 1:24:49
  every new round of escalation brings
• 1:24:51
  Israel closer to the longstanding goal
• 1:24:54
  of permanent confrontation,
• 1:24:57
  maximum security, centralization, and
• 1:24:59
  the destruction of any compromise. In
• 1:25:02
  that sense, Washington is now trying to
• 1:25:05
  escape a crisis whose costs are broadly
• 1:25:09
  shared, but the actors most
• 1:25:12
  ideologically invested in escalation
• 1:25:15
  continue see it not as a disaster, but
• 1:25:17
  as an opportunity
• 1:25:19
  to finalize it. Now, most of that, there
• 1:25:23
  was a lot of commentary of my own in
• 1:25:25
  there, but most of that thought process
• 1:25:27
  came from a guy who's the president of
• 1:25:30
  Middle Eastern Studies and a visiting
• 1:25:33
  lecturer, guy named Morad Sadigadza,
• 1:25:38
  and he's got a telegram channel if
• 1:25:39
  you're interested in that. But, uh, it's
• 1:25:41
  an interesting, uh, interesting take on
• 1:25:44
  that.
• 1:25:45
  So,
• 1:25:47
  uh, the EU is trying to, uh, control the
• 1:25:51
  elections in Hungary for Victor Orbin.
• 1:25:54
  They're coming up, uh, I forget when. I
• 1:25:56
  want to, it might even be, uh, in April.
• 1:25:58
  But Hungarian foreign minister has been
• 1:26:00
  wiretapped by EU spies. He accuses his
• 1:26:04
  political opponents of working with the
• 1:26:06
  EU to spy on his government and he
• 1:26:08
  ordered an investigation into the
• 1:26:10
  alleged wiretapping of foreign minister
• 1:26:13
  Peter Zjardo by one at least EU member
• 1:26:17
  state. The operation was aided by a
• 1:26:19
  Hungarian opposition journalist and the
• 1:26:22
  probe was announced on Monday after the
• 1:26:24
  Post and Politico published reports
• 1:26:26
  claiming that Cesaro phoned uh foreign
• 1:26:29
  minister of Russia Sergey Victor Lavrov
• 1:26:32
  during breaks in the EU meetings to give
• 1:26:34
  Lavrov live reports on what had been
• 1:26:36
  discussed. The report cited unnamed
• 1:26:39
  European security officials. Sajarto
• 1:26:43
  dismissed the claims as lies and fake
• 1:26:45
  news, but Hungary and conservative
• 1:26:47
  outlets uh revealed on Monday that
• 1:26:49
  Sajarto's contact details had been
• 1:26:51
  passed to EU security officials by se uh
• 1:26:55
  an opposition journalist in Hungary. In
• 1:26:57
  the audio file, Pa can be heard telling
• 1:27:00
  a source how he gave the phone number to
• 1:27:03
  a state organ of an EU country. Then he
• 1:27:06
  explains that once the agency he spoke
• 1:27:08
  to has a person's phone number, they can
• 1:27:10
  extract information about who that
• 1:27:13
  number spoke to and they see who is
• 1:27:15
  calling that number or who that number
• 1:27:16
  is calling. In a Facebook post on
• 1:27:19
  Monday, Pa confirmed that he was the
• 1:27:21
  person on the recording. He said that he
• 1:27:23
  was asking his source whether she knew
• 1:27:25
  of any alternate numbers used by Sajarto
• 1:27:28
  or Lavrov so I could compare them with
• 1:27:30
  information I received from the National
• 1:27:33
  Security Service of a European country.
• 1:27:36
  Can you imagine that? That's like
• 1:27:38
  leaking money from uh you know the CIA
• 1:27:41
  to uh the Washington Post. You know,
• 1:27:43
  it's nonsense. Um we are dealing with
• 1:27:46
  two serious issues, said Orbin. There's
• 1:27:48
  evidence that Hungary's foreign minister
• 1:27:50
  was wiretapped and that he was having
• 1:27:53
  indications of who may be behind it.
• 1:27:55
  This must be investigated. Later in the
• 1:27:58
  file, Pany tells his source that he has
• 1:28:00
  a quasi friend of Anita Orban, a member
• 1:28:03
  of the opposition leader uh party and
• 1:28:06
  Magar's picked to replace Zarto as
• 1:28:08
  foreign minister. Wow.
• 1:28:12
  Tell you what, these are very very
• 1:28:15
  interesting times. Well, I have a lot to
• 1:28:19
  do today. Still haven't slept,
• 1:28:20
  obviously, unless uh I can uh do my show
• 1:28:23
  in my sleep. I tried that last week. It
• 1:28:25
  really didn't work out that well. And
• 1:28:27
  so, uh um I have not been asleep, but I
• 1:28:30
  would like to get some sleep, but that's
• 1:28:32
  not happening. I got too much to do
• 1:28:33
  today. Got a a couple of meetings that
• 1:28:35
  are going to take place. It's going to
• 1:28:37
  be a lot of fun. Tomorrow is the biggest
• 1:28:39
  day in radio on damradio.comlive.
• 1:28:43
  um
• 1:28:45
  happens to be Wednesday.
• 1:28:48
  Lots of shows, lots of uh good stuff
• 1:28:53
  and plenty of good talk for you to
• 1:28:56
  listen to. If you want to keep
• 1:28:58
  listening, damradio.comlive.
• 1:29:01
  Tomorrow's a good day to do so. Um you
• 1:29:03
  can go to uh damradio.commpodcasts
• 1:29:07
  and listen to um all of the great
• 1:29:11
  content here. You can listen to music
• 1:29:13
  247
• 1:29:14
  uh by damradio.comlive.
• 1:29:17
  You ever want to listen to uh
• 1:29:18
  internationalflavor
• 1:29:21
  in its entirety uh from any place you
• 1:29:24
  would like to, all you got to do is go
• 1:29:27
  to internationalflavor.com.
• 1:29:30
  Friday, we will have Civic Outlaws
• 1:29:33
  uh full show uh going from 7:00 a.m. to
• 1:29:36
  8:30 a.m. And I hope you join us then. I
• 1:29:42
  very much look forward to uh uh chatting
• 1:29:44
  with you again tomorrow. A very nice