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Covid-19 Has Power To Break The Sports World: Joe Nocera · Bloomberg Intelligence

0:01
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Along
0:04
Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day
0:06
Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,
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Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets
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Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts,
0:17
Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. It is time for Bloomberg Opinion.
0:22
Speaker 1: Very interesting set of opinions from Joan Oh Sarah recently
0:26
Speaker 1: one on Florida, and then plenty of others that we
0:28
Speaker 1: want to get to as well. So let's get to
0:30
Speaker 1: Joe right now, who joins us from book Raton in Florida. Joe,
0:34
Speaker 1: welcome and thanks for joining. Thanks for having me. First
0:37
Speaker 1: of all, how is the situation in Florida? How much
0:40
Speaker 1: are people now abiding by rules where they didn't need
0:43
Speaker 1: to once upon a time. Well, here in Boca Rattan, Actually,
0:47
Speaker 1: people have been abiding by rules at least since I
0:50
Speaker 1: got here a month ago, so there's no there's no
0:52
Speaker 1: issues there. What you hear is that, um, a lot
0:56
Speaker 1: of twenty somethings in Miami we're not wearing masks with
1:00
Speaker 1: throwing parties. UM, I don't think that is still going
1:04
Speaker 1: on because the numbers have been so high, the daily
1:08
Speaker 1: positive case numbers have been so high, it's been kind
1:10
Speaker 1: of scary. Um, but you know there are still you know,
1:14
Speaker 1: there's there's a lot of Latinos getting COVID because their
1:19
Speaker 1: farm workers and you know, they get they don't have masks,
1:22
Speaker 1: and they get on buses and they're all crowded together
1:25
Speaker 1: and they go to work and then they come home
1:26
Speaker 1: and they live in you know, relatively small homes and
1:29
Speaker 1: so uh that that has been part of the surge
1:34
Speaker 1: here as well. So, Joe, I still love reading your
1:38
Speaker 1: stuff at times, your sports work at the New York Times.
1:41
Speaker 1: You know, you're out with a column here just recently
1:44
Speaker 1: very interesting talking about sports, and that's kind of been
1:48
Speaker 1: you know, a big, big, big issue for a lot
1:50
Speaker 1: of people. We've got Major League Baseball opening up last
1:53
Speaker 1: night with the Yankees winning. I should point out, Um,
1:56
Speaker 1: how do you think this is going to play out? Joe?
1:58
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, you're down in Florida, that's a
2:01
Speaker 1: huge college football state. I just don't see how this
2:05
Speaker 1: is going to play out. I think. Okay, so I'd
2:09
Speaker 1: be very surprised that this college football was fall. At
2:12
Speaker 1: a minimum, I think it'll get pushed to the spring
2:14
Speaker 1: because you know, unlike the pros, these guys aren't getting paid,
2:20
Speaker 1: and and and in many of these schools, the students
2:23
Speaker 1: aren't gonna go to school. They're gonna be doing They're
2:25
Speaker 1: gonna be doing it remotely. And so how can you say, well,
2:28
Speaker 1: we gotta have the athletes on campus to play football
2:30
Speaker 1: games so we can make money when we when when
2:33
Speaker 1: when no other students are here, I mean, it's just
2:35
Speaker 1: it's it's it's it's the hypocrisy is even worse than
2:39
Speaker 1: usual for college sports. So I'd be very surprised to
2:42
Speaker 1: play college college football. The pros are different. I mean, look,
2:45
Speaker 1: look what happened yesterday. Um, you know, Juan Soto of
2:50
Speaker 1: the Nationals, the star, you know, young star left fielder,
2:54
Speaker 1: had at a positive test, right and they still and
2:57
Speaker 1: they still played the game. So, um, you know, I
3:01
Speaker 1: think that so long as you don't have like twelve players,
3:07
Speaker 1: you know, getting positive tests at once, I think they'll
3:10
Speaker 1: keep playing. If it's one or two, I would I
3:12
Speaker 1: would worry more about professional football just because by the
3:16
Speaker 1: nature of the sport. Um, if there's a virus floating
3:21
Speaker 1: around with the offensive lineman. It's just pretty easy to
3:24
Speaker 1: get it on the defensive lineman, you know. So uh,
3:27
Speaker 1: to me, the question markets whether you'll be able to
3:30
Speaker 1: play football after after a game or two. So how
3:33
Speaker 1: many players will come down with COVID? Yeah, I mean
3:35
Speaker 1: it would be it would be so difficult to start
3:38
Speaker 1: off the season and then have to stop it or
3:39
Speaker 1: have some teams you know, strike out or whatever. Speaking
3:42
Speaker 1: of which, soo, how long does it take for a
3:45
Speaker 1: league to get back up and running after a lost season?
3:47
Speaker 1: I mean remember right well, you know, they're all trying
3:54
Speaker 1: to cobble together. Just something. I mean, the end the
3:57
Speaker 1: NBA was was out from March. They're gonna start up
4:00
Speaker 1: July one. Hockey is pretty much the same thing. Major
4:03
Speaker 1: League Soccer has just started up. Baseball is starting up,
4:06
Speaker 1: but they're only gonna have a sixty game season. They're
4:09
Speaker 1: all just um improvising, you know. So baseball is going
4:13
Speaker 1: to have a bigger playoffs to get more teams in
4:16
Speaker 1: the playoffs. They're all just trying to figure it out.
4:18
Speaker 1: I mean, basketball is going to have pretty much ten
4:21
Speaker 1: regular season games and then they're gonna go straight to
4:24
Speaker 1: the playoffs. In a way, these are seasons that should
4:27
Speaker 1: have asterisks because you know, whatever numbers or figures, they're
4:33
Speaker 1: not truly representative of what a season UH is and UM,
4:40
Speaker 1: I think the real question to me is how are
4:44
Speaker 1: the fans going to react? Are they going to tune in?
4:46
Speaker 1: Are they going to tune out? Are they going to
4:47
Speaker 1: cut the chord? We don't know. We just don't know.
4:51
Speaker 1: So let's go at the college football because again you're
4:53
Speaker 1: in Florida SEC territory. I mean, that is as big
4:57
Speaker 1: as pro football is in you know, a lot of
4:59
Speaker 1: the country. If you go to some of these southern
5:01
Speaker 1: and mid Midwestern parts of the country, college football is
5:04
Speaker 1: just a huge I'm thinking about the Big Ten, the SEC,
5:07
Speaker 1: the Big Ten is talking about playing just conference games.
5:10
Speaker 1: Is there a are you looking for one of these
5:13
Speaker 1: big power conferences to kind of just say listen, guys,
5:16
Speaker 1: it's not gonna it's not gonna work. We've already had
5:17
Speaker 1: the IVY League and some other Division one Double A
5:20
Speaker 1: conferences protact. But are you expecting a big power five
5:22
Speaker 1: conference the kind of be the first I am, and
5:26
Speaker 1: it'll be the Big Ten. The Big Ten they got
5:28
Speaker 1: a new commissioner. He doesn't wanna UM, screw up. And
5:34
Speaker 1: he's already said even in the press release where they
5:36
Speaker 1: said they were going to go only conference games, he
5:39
Speaker 1: basically said, you know, if we play you know, so
5:42
Speaker 1: he's already hedging. I mean, I think it'll be the
5:44
Speaker 1: Big ten. It's certainly not going to be the SEC
5:47
Speaker 1: that will be the last. That will be the last one.
5:49
Speaker 1: I mean in Alabama. Uh, you know, Alabama football is religion.
5:55
Speaker 1: You want to follow Pole because that was a little
5:57
Speaker 1: bit double Dutch to me. No, I was just you know,
6:00
Speaker 1: how about some of these you know, we're starting to
6:01
Speaker 1: see some of that. You know, I'm looking at golf.
6:03
Speaker 1: They were one of the ones that first came back,
6:05
Speaker 1: and the ratings are good and it seems to be
6:07
Speaker 1: working for golf. Is that something that you think can continue? Yes,
6:12
Speaker 1: Golf and tennis are the two sports that that you
6:15
Speaker 1: could play and socially distanced, right. Uh. And if you
6:20
Speaker 1: watch the golf golf tournaments, I mean they're you know,
6:24
Speaker 1: they're they're keeping their I mean they always did, but
6:26
Speaker 1: they're keeping their distance from each other except for their caddies.
6:29
Speaker 1: And there's no there are no there's no people there,
6:32
Speaker 1: there are no fans there, and it's purely a television
6:35
Speaker 1: event and it really is working just fine. And I
6:38
Speaker 1: think you'll find the tennis will will sort of be
6:40
Speaker 1: the same way. I'd be surprised if they have to
6:43
Speaker 1: cancel the US open Um because again, you know that
6:47
Speaker 1: the players around on the other side of the net,
6:51
Speaker 1: and as long as they don't you know, handshake or
6:54
Speaker 1: hug or whatever, they should be fine. It's it's the
6:56
Speaker 1: it's the contact sports where you have a problem. And
6:59
Speaker 1: it's all about the NFL. Let's talk about you know,
7:01
Speaker 1: the elephant in the room. Are you expecting Roger Goodell
7:03
Speaker 1: to just kind of play it by ear? Is he
7:06
Speaker 1: gonna try to take a bold statement We're going or
7:08
Speaker 1: we're not going. No, he's got they have to play
7:11
Speaker 1: it by ears. They really don't have any choice. They
7:13
Speaker 1: desperately want to play. But you know, the networks, I mean,
7:17
Speaker 1: I mean, it's hard to overstate how important professional football
7:20
Speaker 1: is uh to the television networks. Honestly, it's it's the
7:24
Speaker 1: only thing that keeping cord cutting from from being even
7:27
Speaker 1: more widespread than it already is. And so there's enormous
7:31
Speaker 1: pressure to play these games. Um, but you know, they're
7:35
Speaker 1: all a little nervous because they don't want to wake
7:37
Speaker 1: up tomorrow and say, oh, twenty New York Jets have
7:40
Speaker 1: are COVID positive. You know, one or two they'll they'll
7:44
Speaker 1: they'll blow through it, but twenty no, they won't. So
7:47
Speaker 1: basically they've got their fingers crossed. Yeah, it's interesting. We
7:50
Speaker 1: have to see how this is all going to come
7:51
Speaker 1: to a head really over the next several weeks for
7:53
Speaker 1: a lot of these big big leagues thinking college football,
7:56
Speaker 1: profit ball, and lots of other things. Jonas Sarah Calm
7:58
Speaker 1: this for Bloomberg Opinion. Thanks someone for joining us on
8:01
Speaker 1: the phone from South Florida. We will pay attention to
8:05
Speaker 1: this because, as Joe was just mentioning, it's a it's
8:07
Speaker 1: big businesses to the schools for the college level and
8:10
Speaker 1: on the pros, but it's also big, big business for
8:13
Speaker 1: the broadcast and cable networks that really rely upon sports
8:16
Speaker 1: programming and the advertising it brings in. So this market
8:22
Speaker 1: has a lot of investment managers and investors scratching their heads.
8:26
Speaker 1: Let's examine some of the reasons behind the rise and
8:30
Speaker 1: rise and rise of equities with Stephen Dover, now head
8:32
Speaker 1: of Equities at Franklin Templeton two eight billion dollars in
8:36
Speaker 1: equities under management, early six hundred billion dollars in total
8:40
Speaker 1: assets under management. Stephen, welcome, How much does it concern
8:44
Speaker 1: you that of the market cap of the SMP five
8:47
Speaker 1: hundred is basically five companies these days? Well, the concentration
8:52
Speaker 1: in those companies is absolutely amazing, and they account for
8:56
Speaker 1: about of the total UM return on the market. In fact,
9:01
Speaker 1: it's interesting if you were to take those companies out,
9:06
Speaker 1: UH and compare the return on the US market to
9:08
Speaker 1: the overseas markets, you find out that they're about the same,
9:11
Speaker 1: which which means the difference between the US markets and
9:14
Speaker 1: overseas markets is all about those five companies. So um,
9:18
Speaker 1: the spread of and the concentration in the market is
9:21
Speaker 1: the greatest that it's been since uh, since roughly UM
9:27
Speaker 1: and UM. So yes, there's a concern about that concentration
9:31
Speaker 1: in the market. How about speaking of concerns, and there's
9:34
Speaker 1: plenty to go through um uh, Stephen, how about China
9:38
Speaker 1: here it seems like just in the past couple of
9:40
Speaker 1: days the tensions have ratcheted up even one more notch.
9:43
Speaker 1: How much of that is a concern for you, guys?
9:45
Speaker 1: I know you guys are global investors at Franklin Templeton.
9:48
Speaker 1: How do you think about that? Yeah, thank you. I've
9:52
Speaker 1: been a long term China watcher, been to China many
9:56
Speaker 1: many times since the way back in two so UM
10:00
Speaker 1: kind of look at it from a from a local
10:02
Speaker 1: perspective and also just to let you know, we also
10:05
Speaker 1: manage money locally for Chinese investors. I think that UM, clearly,
10:12
Speaker 1: the West is very concerned about China. There's much less
10:16
Speaker 1: trust about China, and if you're to look at the headlines,
10:19
Speaker 1: perhaps you would avoid investing in China. I would note,
10:23
Speaker 1: and this is particularly I think important because I talked
10:25
Speaker 1: to a lot of foreign investors, that the issues between
10:29
Speaker 1: China and excuse me, between the United States and China
10:32
Speaker 1: is not just this administration, a new administration, but also
10:36
Speaker 1: it's a bipartisan issue. UM. In fact, it's the Western issue,
10:40
Speaker 1: including Europe. All that said, china a share market is
10:44
Speaker 1: up over thirty fifth March, is one of the best
10:47
Speaker 1: performing markets. China has cut its trade dependence nearly in
10:52
Speaker 1: half over the last three three or four years, and
10:55
Speaker 1: China is moving from a trade dependent economy to a
10:59
Speaker 1: consumer dependent economy. So while I have concerns. I think
11:04
Speaker 1: investors should continue to look at China as an investment opportunity.
11:08
Speaker 1: There's especially a lot of good technology opportunities in China.
11:12
Speaker 1: That said, I think one of the biggest changes we're
11:15
Speaker 1: going to see in the United States is a change
11:17
Speaker 1: in the supply chain and a movement back from some
11:21
Speaker 1: of these emerging markets to the US. What that will
11:23
Speaker 1: do is change our economy. We're very dependent on consumer spending.
11:28
Speaker 1: It's about seventy of our economy, and we may be
11:30
Speaker 1: spending a lot more on capital spending as we change
11:34
Speaker 1: that supply chain. That will be positive for the US,
11:36
Speaker 1: particularly the Midwest in the central part of America. So
11:40
Speaker 1: won't that then change the outlook for investing in China?
11:44
Speaker 1: Steven If some of this escalates and there isn't, you know,
11:48
Speaker 1: a rollback of some of the tension, why would it
11:52
Speaker 1: be so safe to invest in China for US investors? Well,
11:58
Speaker 1: I think US investors have to look at China very carefully.
12:03
Speaker 1: I think it's definitely a place where you have to
12:05
Speaker 1: look at corporate governance because the government of China has
12:10
Speaker 1: a lot of influence on all the companies. I think
12:12
Speaker 1: we're probably likely to live in a world, especially on
12:15
Speaker 1: the technology side, where there's two different systems. There's the
12:18
Speaker 1: Western slash American system and the Chinese system, which will
12:22
Speaker 1: private primarily dominate within the emerging markets. Um, but there
12:26
Speaker 1: are that China is going to continue to grow, although
12:30
Speaker 1: not at the speed that it was growing before. It's
12:33
Speaker 1: going to be a higher quality growth. And I think
12:35
Speaker 1: that there are still a lot of companies in China
12:39
Speaker 1: and in the emerging markets that will continue to have opportunity,
12:43
Speaker 1: particularly relative to the US companies, which, as I mentioned before,
12:47
Speaker 1: I think are probably a bit ahead of themselves. So, Steven,
12:50
Speaker 1: I just want to get your thoughts here because the
12:52
Speaker 1: on the fiscal stimulus that's being currently debated in Congress. Um,
12:58
Speaker 1: how important is it that we get something done like now,
13:01
Speaker 1: like the next you know, before the recess. I mean,
13:03
Speaker 1: how do you are you guys are Franklin Temple and
13:05
Speaker 1: then thinking about the need for fiscal stimulus to keep
13:07
Speaker 1: this economy uh going at at at the current rate
13:11
Speaker 1: at least. I think that the market expects that the
13:15
Speaker 1: stimulus will be passed in some way. If it's not passed,
13:18
Speaker 1: I think the market will will be disappointed. Um, we're
13:22
Speaker 1: in a very interesting time. It's likely that the trials
13:26
Speaker 1: of some of the vaccines will come out in September
13:29
Speaker 1: or October. Nobody knows because the only way to know
13:33
Speaker 1: whether the vaccines are going to work is to do
13:35
Speaker 1: the trials. But if if, if, in the likelihood that
13:38
Speaker 1: those trials are positive, I think the market would absolutely
13:42
Speaker 1: boom because there's so much stimulus. But that's not likely.
13:46
Speaker 1: It's more likely that there'll be small steps and and
13:49
Speaker 1: more therapeutics. So we have this great uncertainty and at
13:53
Speaker 1: the same time we have this massive stimulus. So if
13:58
Speaker 1: for whatever reason the virus takes a downward downward mode
14:02
Speaker 1: because we have so much stimulus, the market is likely
14:05
Speaker 1: to be uh undervalued and and likely to boom. On
14:11
Speaker 1: the other hand, as you mentioned, if we don't have
14:13
Speaker 1: the stimulus and we have this this wave of the
14:16
Speaker 1: virus continuing, yeah, I think the market will struggle. So um,
14:20
Speaker 1: the short answer to your question is, yes, the stimulus
14:23
Speaker 1: from the government's important, but we might find out in
14:26
Speaker 1: a couple of months over stimulus potentially all right, we'll see.
14:31
Speaker 1: We'll find out, certainly in the next week or so, hopefully.
14:33
Speaker 1: Stephen Doverhead of Equities for Franklin Templeton joining us on
14:36
Speaker 1: the phone from San Mateo, California, giving us his thoughts
14:39
Speaker 1: about the market. China very interesting obviously, trade tensions and
14:43
Speaker 1: tensions across the board between the US and China are rising.
14:46
Speaker 1: It doesn't seem to be abating any time soon. Off
14:49
Speaker 1: to see how the market discounts. That. This is Bloomberg
14:53
Speaker 1: headlines crossing the Bloomberg terminal here. Apparently uh Mr Fauci
14:58
Speaker 1: was speaking to the Washington Post. He says the US
15:02
Speaker 1: shutdown was about fifty in reality, whereas the Europe was
15:05
Speaker 1: about nine percent. And he's also saying that some southern
15:09
Speaker 1: states need to step back on reopening, so some cautious
15:13
Speaker 1: commentary there. We'll see kind of how those states react
15:17
Speaker 1: going forward. One of the industries that's really really been
15:20
Speaker 1: impacted is the entertainment industry. It's all but shut down
15:23
Speaker 1: in production. Movie theaters have been closed. It's just been
15:27
Speaker 1: extraordinary here. People are staying home, they're streaming movies, and
15:32
Speaker 1: even some studios are bypassing the release of UH movies
15:35
Speaker 1: into studios going directly the streaming services. So really the
15:39
Speaker 1: entertainment industry has been extraordinarily disrupted by this coronavirus and
15:43
Speaker 1: were very fortunate to have someone can really shed some
15:46
Speaker 1: color on this for us. Jane Rosenthal, co founder, chief
15:49
Speaker 1: executive officer and executive chair of the Tribeca Film Festival,
15:52
Speaker 1: joins us. Jane, thanks so much for joining us here.
15:55
Speaker 1: Let's just start with the production here. It's all but
15:57
Speaker 1: shut down of movies and TVs globally, hasn't it. It has? Uh.
16:02
Speaker 1: You know, we're always about safety first, So even in
16:07
Speaker 1: normal times, when you're on a film set, you always
16:10
Speaker 1: want to ensure that your your actors, your crew are safe.
16:14
Speaker 1: And it's no different in these times, although it is
16:19
Speaker 1: incredibly uh sad the complete economic destruction it has done
16:27
Speaker 1: for so many people in our industry. Well, the type
16:31
Speaker 1: of film festival, one of the world's greatest film festivals,
16:34
Speaker 1: sounded back in two thousand two, so this year would
16:36
Speaker 1: have been and is the eighteenth year. And you didn't
16:39
Speaker 1: let coronavirus stop you. You found some very interesting ways
16:42
Speaker 1: of getting around showing movies. For example, tell us what
16:47
Speaker 1: you did in order to be able to show movies
16:50
Speaker 1: to people? Well you. At our core, we aim to
16:53
Speaker 1: bring people together through the arts and to send a
16:55
Speaker 1: signal of unity. And resiliency, especially during these challenging times.
17:01
Speaker 1: REBECA was started right after UH nine eleven to bring
17:04
Speaker 1: people back together. One of the things we did at
17:07
Speaker 1: the time was we did these drive ins, which were
17:09
Speaker 1: actually sit ins on the West Side Highway because you
17:12
Speaker 1: couldn't get enough people downtown. We didn't have large enough
17:15
Speaker 1: venues at the time. Now we came up with the
17:18
Speaker 1: idea of doing drive ins nationally so people could be
17:23
Speaker 1: in their cars, it could be socially distanced with families
17:27
Speaker 1: that they have been quarantined with and watch a movie. Um.
17:32
Speaker 1: There's nothing like the magic of the movie going experiences,
17:37
Speaker 1: and drive ins have certainly been a part of our
17:42
Speaker 1: movie going history. Jane, what do you think the this
17:47
Speaker 1: lock in, this COVID induced lock in, is going to
17:49
Speaker 1: do to consumer behavior as it relates to that movie
17:53
Speaker 1: going experience? Attendance in the US for theatrical has been
17:57
Speaker 1: rubbing a flatish over the last decade or so. Um,
18:01
Speaker 1: do you and now theaters have been shut for We're
18:03
Speaker 1: not sure how long they're going to be shut it
18:05
Speaker 1: certainly for several months here. Do you think that's going
18:08
Speaker 1: to impact consumer behaviors that relates to go into movies.
18:11
Speaker 1: Consumer behavior has been impacted about going to the movies
18:16
Speaker 1: UH for several years. Now, movie goers have more choices,
18:21
Speaker 1: the audience have more choices than ever before. Do you
18:24
Speaker 1: want to stay home and watch it on your computer?
18:27
Speaker 1: Do you want to watch it on a small screen?
18:29
Speaker 1: Do you want to play a game? Where do you
18:31
Speaker 1: want to? You know, how do you want to do something?
18:33
Speaker 1: So you've had those choices. I think that as just
18:37
Speaker 1: as human beings, we want to gather, we want to
18:39
Speaker 1: be together, we want to laugh together, we want to
18:42
Speaker 1: listen to music together. So that will come back, There's
18:45
Speaker 1: no question it will come back when we finally have
18:48
Speaker 1: the rigorous science and people know that they're safe and
18:52
Speaker 1: they can um and we can be together. There is
18:56
Speaker 1: nothing like being in a movie theater and laughing, or
19:00
Speaker 1: being at a great concert and singing together, or for
19:05
Speaker 1: that matter, you know, at a sporting event and sharing
19:09
Speaker 1: your favorite team. So that's what that will come back.
19:12
Speaker 1: We just have to, you know, wait for you know,
19:15
Speaker 1: the proper science of vaccines, the right protocols, and one
19:19
Speaker 1: of the things you're working on, in fact, is to
19:21
Speaker 1: bring Walmart on board so you can have a hundred
19:24
Speaker 1: and sixty Walmart locations act as drive ins, which would
19:27
Speaker 1: really open up this kind of thing to a lot
19:29
Speaker 1: more people. But Jane talked to us about this year's festival.
19:32
Speaker 1: I've noticed, you know a lot of free content online,
19:35
Speaker 1: and you were no different. You had a whole week
19:38
Speaker 1: of a free we are one global film festival where
19:41
Speaker 1: people could access on YouTube all of the movies for free.
19:45
Speaker 1: It was actually ten days worth before you got to
19:47
Speaker 1: the drive in portion of the festival, which lasts for
19:49
Speaker 1: another few days. Next year, you have all these people
19:53
Speaker 1: that now know about the Tribeca Film Festival. But will
19:56
Speaker 1: you have really depleted your resources or will you be
19:58
Speaker 1: able to continue to to raise money to bring Tribeca
20:02
Speaker 1: to maybe an even larger audience after this? I hope?
20:06
Speaker 1: So Um, You know, certainly will Um will announce our
20:10
Speaker 1: dates all. You know, when you look at whether it
20:14
Speaker 1: has been the Academy Awards, all the various festivals, the
20:19
Speaker 1: dates have been, all dates have been pushed around, and
20:22
Speaker 1: how much is actually going to be done in person
20:26
Speaker 1: versus virtually you look at what they're doing at the
20:29
Speaker 1: Toronto Film Festival. So Um, again, it's going to be
20:34
Speaker 1: until we know we can all gather and be safe.
20:37
Speaker 1: It's going to be it's going to be challenging. H
20:40
Speaker 1: Plus what new movies are in the pipeline that will
20:45
Speaker 1: be able to will be able to show. Uh. In
20:47
Speaker 1: terms of Tribeca, we're excited about it will be our
20:51
Speaker 1: twentieth anniversary um next next year, and we're excited about
20:58
Speaker 1: new ways that we can do things uh outdoors, Uh
21:03
Speaker 1: not just drive ins. We've got some other things up
21:06
Speaker 1: our up our sleeves, and uh, you know, I feel
21:10
Speaker 1: at this time, as as as as sad and as
21:16
Speaker 1: difficult and the psychic impact it's had on all of us,
21:20
Speaker 1: I feel that it's also becoming some of the most
21:24
Speaker 1: you'll have the most creative time from artists coming up,
21:30
Speaker 1: because we've been forced to to think differently, and it's
21:35
Speaker 1: a time that will of great innovation and great change. Um,
21:40
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's also the most difficult and extraordinary
21:46
Speaker 1: time in our lifetime. But exactly well, Jane, for those
21:52
Speaker 1: who have cars or who want to rent a car
21:54
Speaker 1: for the evening, there is still time to go and
21:56
Speaker 1: see some of the wonderful movies that you're putting on,
21:59
Speaker 1: some old movies, some new movies and check those out
22:02
Speaker 1: on the website Tribeca Film dot com or thanks so
22:06
Speaker 1: much to Jane Rosenhal, co founder and CEO of the
22:09
Speaker 1: Tribeca Film Festival on the ghost since two thousand two,
22:12
Speaker 1: and of course, dealing with the coronavirus in the year
22:14
Speaker 1: twenty not an easy one, but they're keeping it going,
22:18
Speaker 1: as so many arts and culture organizations are doing pol
22:22
Speaker 1: It's really phenomenal to see all of the emails come
22:25
Speaker 1: in and you know, offering free content and hopefully it
22:28
Speaker 1: will it will pay off. Hopefully people who use the
22:29
Speaker 1: free content will come back next time it's paid content
22:32
Speaker 1: and pay for it. Yeah, exactly. And the arts have
22:35
Speaker 1: really been disrupted here, but hopefully most of them can
22:38
Speaker 1: hang on well. Tensions between the US and China continue
22:43
Speaker 1: to escalate. Early this week, of course, the US closed
22:47
Speaker 1: a Chinese consulate in Houston, Texas, trying to retaliated just
22:52
Speaker 1: yesterday by closing a US embassy in a c Chunk
22:55
Speaker 1: dough so in retaliation for that. So the question is
23:00
Speaker 1: where do we go from here? What's causing this rising tensions?
23:03
Speaker 1: And again, where do we go from here? Andy Brown,
23:05
Speaker 1: editorial director for Bloomberg New Economy Joints, is on the
23:08
Speaker 1: phone Andy, give us some color here, since what is
23:12
Speaker 1: really driving these rising tensions between the US and China.
23:16
Speaker 1: It seems like they've really ratcheted up just in the
23:18
Speaker 1: last couple of years and certainly the last several months. Yeah, look,
23:23
Speaker 1: I think I think there are a couple of things
23:24
Speaker 1: going on here. I mean, first of all, and most basically,
23:28
Speaker 1: this is Trump and his White House lashing out at China, UM,
23:33
Speaker 1: because it's a vote when a beating up on China
23:37
Speaker 1: is perceived as being the the the the easiest path
23:40
Speaker 1: dual re election at a time when it's become increasingly
23:44
Speaker 1: apparent that um, you know, Trump is is heading towards defeat.
23:50
Speaker 1: So that's the first thing. The second thing is it's
23:53
Speaker 1: a distraction from the pandemic. And and again you know
23:58
Speaker 1: it's Trump himself is now acknowledged that this fight against
24:03
Speaker 1: COVID nineteen is going really badly UM and could cost
24:07
Speaker 1: him votes. It could even cost him the election. So
24:11
Speaker 1: that's the second thing. Then, more broadly, I think what
24:14
Speaker 1: this is demonstrating is that China policy in the White
24:18
Speaker 1: House has now been captured by Mike Pompeo UM and
24:22
Speaker 1: a very small group of anti China hulks, and they're
24:26
Speaker 1: pretty much convinced that the US and Chinese economic and
24:30
Speaker 1: political systems are incompatible, UM, one free democratic, capitalist, the
24:36
Speaker 1: other closed, repressive, increasingly state led, and that a showdown
24:42
Speaker 1: is on the way, and it's better to have this
24:45
Speaker 1: showdown earlier than later, before China builds up its capabilities
24:50
Speaker 1: even further. UM. And then the timetable for this, of
24:54
Speaker 1: course is this sense that you know, if they're if
24:57
Speaker 1: they're if they're out in November, they to get on
25:00
Speaker 1: with this pretty quickly. And I think all of this
25:04
Speaker 1: UM is combining to create what what really is now
25:07
Speaker 1: looking like a deep crisis, a real rift, a historic
25:13
Speaker 1: rift in US China relationships. So what's the strategy here, Andy,
25:17
Speaker 1: A tit for tat closing of embassies and consulates until
25:20
Speaker 1: they're none left. Yeah, so Houston has closed, UM, chund
25:27
Speaker 1: is closing. Uh. This is the latest in a in
25:31
Speaker 1: a series of tip fat tat escalations. You'll remember, of course,
25:34
Speaker 1: that it began with journalists UM. Then we had tip
25:38
Speaker 1: fotat expulsions of academics, of scientists, UM, floating the whole
25:45
Speaker 1: series of trial balloons, and with this idea to ban
25:49
Speaker 1: all members of the Chinese Communist Party UH from from
25:53
Speaker 1: entering the United States. There was even talk which was
25:56
Speaker 1: which was shot down, of trying to destabilize the Hong
26:00
Speaker 1: Kong dollar peg to the US dollar as punishment for
26:03
Speaker 1: the National Security law that Beijing imposed on Hong Kong.
26:07
Speaker 1: So it's it's it's the latest in a series of
26:10
Speaker 1: of of escalations, and it gives a sense to be'st
26:14
Speaker 1: your ability of what you think China would like to see.
26:17
Speaker 1: I'm I'm sure China doesn't view this process as a
26:21
Speaker 1: positive for them, but I'm not sure kind of what
26:25
Speaker 1: their strategy may be here. Do they want to interact
26:28
Speaker 1: with the US? Do they want to engage with the U?
26:30
Speaker 1: S Um. What do you think they're feeling? Is well, sure,
26:34
Speaker 1: I mean, they certainly don't want to see the relationship
26:37
Speaker 1: falling upon. They need US investment, they need US technology,
26:42
Speaker 1: they need US markets, um, and uh, you know on
26:47
Speaker 1: the country though, Uh you know, what's the the the
26:50
Speaker 1: impact actually, um of all of this anti Chinese hysteria
26:57
Speaker 1: now coming out of the White House is that it's
27:01
Speaker 1: actually reinforcing the power and the prestige of the Chinese leadership.
27:07
Speaker 1: Even those people in in China who you know, like
27:12
Speaker 1: the United States, who know America who studied here? Um,
27:17
Speaker 1: you know these people who have gone back to China
27:21
Speaker 1: and are struggling to put in place against a lot
27:24
Speaker 1: of opposition. Um, you know something that looks like a
27:28
Speaker 1: rules based system for China. Even these people are now
27:33
Speaker 1: rallying around the flag. Um, they're now supporting the Chinese.
27:37
Speaker 1: The Chinese leadership that said, how much does China need
27:42
Speaker 1: the United States? How far can China take this before
27:45
Speaker 1: it has to take a step back. Well, there's a
27:49
Speaker 1: good question. I mean, does China need the US? Um,
27:52
Speaker 1: you know, more than the US needs China. China is
27:54
Speaker 1: moving now towards the the catchphrase now it's self reliance,
28:01
Speaker 1: so on technology, on industry, tech things. China is moving
28:07
Speaker 1: towards um, you know, uh, autarchy on the economy and technology. Um.
28:15
Speaker 1: The United States, on the other hand, certainly you have
28:18
Speaker 1: companies desperately need um, the Chinese market. In many markets,
28:23
Speaker 1: the China is the biggest. And yeah, I didn't have China,
28:27
Speaker 1: you know, would be out of business. Right now. I'm
28:29
Speaker 1: just going to jump in because we are getting a
28:30
Speaker 1: headline on this very subject right now. The Chinese researcher
28:34
Speaker 1: at the San Francisco Consulate that the US had accused of,
28:39
Speaker 1: well maybe doing a list of things, is now in custody.
28:42
Speaker 1: The US is speaking to reporters on the China consulate closing,
28:47
Speaker 1: and apparently that person who is taking refuge at the
28:51
Speaker 1: consulate in San Francisco of China is now in custody.
28:54
Speaker 1: So a developing story. Andy, the perfect time to have
28:56
Speaker 1: you on. Thank you. That is Andy Brown of the
28:59
Speaker 1: New Economy Forum at Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg
29:05
Speaker 1: Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at
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Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or whatever a podcast platform you prefer. I'm
29:12
Speaker 1: Bonnie Quinn. I'm on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn. And I'm
29:15
Speaker 1: Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast,
29:18
Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio