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Jun 24 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr260624 The June 24, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report covers current commodity market trends, agricultural weed management research, and global weather impacts on crop production. Greg Johnson of Total Grain Marketing notes that commodity markets are experiencing a typical seasonal lull, driven heavily by investment funds liquidating over three billion bushels in long positions. This massive sell-off has depressed prices for corn, soybeans, and wheat, causing farmer selling to dry up as the industry waits for upcoming USDA reports and crucial pollination weather. Shifting to agronomy, Corteva’s Jeff Bode and University of Illinois Crop Scientist Aaron Hager detail the findings from the campus Weed Science Field Day. Their focus centers on evaluating residual herbicides and active ingredients to manage resistant weed species, notably revisiting applications like Metribuzin to combat metabolic triazine resistance in waterhemp. Finally, meteorologist Drew Lerner of World Weather, Inc. details severe global weather disruptions, highlighting a record-breaking, crop-damaging heat wave in France and a significant rainfall deficit in India that threatens a national drought. Domestically, Lerner forecasts a high-pressure ridge building across the Midwest, which is expected to introduce heat and a concerning dry bias to the western Corn Belt, specifically targeting South Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota. 01:02 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing 07:05 The Land Grant Weed Science Mission 07:19 Jeff Bode, Corteva Technical Agronomist 10:07 Aaron Hager, University of Illinois Crop Scientist 13:46 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. --- Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 24th day of June 2026. I am Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we will talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson. We will hear from weed scientist Aaron Hager and Corteva’s Jeff Bode. They were both at the field day on campus earlier today. We will turn our attention, as we wrap up our time together, to taking a look at the weather forecast. We will do that with Drew Lerner of World Weather, Inc. right here on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report. From Illinois Public Media, it is public radio for the farming world online and on demand at WILLAg.org. announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Todd Gleason: The theme music for the Closing Market Report is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer and my brother, Tim Gleason. 01:02 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson from TGM, Total Grain Marketing, right here in Champaign County, joins us to talk about the marketplace. Thank you for being with us again today, Greg. Greg Johnson: You are very welcome, Todd. Todd Gleason: Over the last week or two, it seems the market has settled into a normal, fundamental summertime cadence, not looking as much to the outside markets. What does that tell you about what the next few weeks might look like? Greg Johnson: We have been following a seasonal pattern here. Once we get the crop planted, the market tends to sell off. The fear of not getting planted has passed, and it is still too early to talk about pollination weather. The interim between the first of June and the first of July is typically a downtime for the market, which is exactly what we are seeing. The funds have significantly bailed out of commodities. On the first of May, they were long over three billion bushels of corn, beans, and wheat combined. Since then, they have sold off that entire amount. It is no wonder that corn is down 80 cents from the highs we made in mid-May, beans are down 90 cents, and wheat is down 80 to 90 cents as well. We have had a major sell-off. The fund selling has been a heavy weight on the futures market, and as a result, farmer selling has dried up. Farmers are not interested in selling at these prices. We have seen basis improve to incentivize moving grain; corn basis is about a nickel better than it was ten days ago, and bean basis is about 10 cents better. Flat price is still lower, and farmer selling is almost nonexistent. We are waiting for pollination weather to potentially provide a bounce. The next major market movers will be the USDA prospective plantings report and the quarterly stocks report next Tuesday, along with pollination weather. Todd Gleason: I have something for you to consider. Oats are off sharply, at least in the lead option, but not as much in the deferred months today. Their contract high for July was the week of May 18th, and their contract low is this week. Do oats have insight, and is there more downside since today is 18 cents lower on that old crop contract? Or does it merely reflect knowledge about the old crop? Greg Johnson: With wheat harvest coming up, wheat tends to make a seasonal low when we are about two-thirds through the harvest, followed by a slight bounce. The state of Illinois is 40 to 50 percent harvested statewide. We have not started around here yet. If the weather dries up and cooperates, we could start seeing wheat come in. It looks like there is more rain in the forecast for us later this week, so the wheat harvest in Central Illinois may not start until next week. I cannot point to anything positive for oats. Demand for corn remains very strong; we have improved demand from 15 billion bushels a year up to 16.2 billion. I do not see that demand going down. If we have a weather problem, the price will have to go up to ration the smaller crop, but we do not have a smaller crop to talk about yet. Todd Gleason: The difference between the old and new crop and the July contracts tells me there might be plenty of corn in the elevator, leading to a storage issue if we have a normal-sized crop this year. Greg Johnson: It boils down to whether we can export beans to China in the fall. We do not have enough storage space for both corn and soybeans. Something has to move in the fall. We need the normal export demand we see in soybeans to clear out space. If we do not see that export bean program in the fall, storage space could get tight. Todd Gleason: Is there any indication in the marketplace that China is in? Greg Johnson: The USDA has incorporated the 25 million metric tons that China promises to buy from us every year for the next three years. The USDA still believes they are good for it. Todd Gleason: Thank you. We will talk with you again tomorrow for our Commodity Week program. Greg Johnson: Looking forward to it. Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson is with TGM, Total Grain Marketing. 07:05 The Land Grant Weed Science Mission Todd Gleason: This morning I was on site at the South Farms for the weed science field day. I ran into Jeff Bode. He is a technical agronomist with Corteva. I asked him why he attended. 07:19 Jeff Bode, Corteva Technical Agronomist Jeff Bode: Dr. Aaron Hager and his team do a great job here evaluating different herbicide trials for both corn and soybeans. It allows us to take a broad look at what is working, what insights Dr. Hager is having as the weeds progress, and what the future holds. Todd Gleason: What are the things you have on your priority list when evaluating these trials? Jeff Bode: The major focus with weed management is residual herbicides. We evaluate the value that different herbicides and tank mixes bring to the table and the differences across the weed spectrum. Todd Gleason: When you walk around, are you looking at the competition to see how that works? Jeff Bode: Absolutely. We look at the vast difference of active ingredients in the marketplace to see how they manage against different weed species, such as velvetleaf or waterhemp. Todd Gleason: Active ingredients, not the AI that we think about on a daily basis. Jeff Bode: Correct, active ingredients. Todd Gleason: How important are weed science programs at Land Grant universities like Illinois, Iowa State, Purdue, Minnesota, Nebraska, and North Dakota State to the broader agrichemical system? Jeff Bode: The research base they provide is essential. We lean heavily on the knowledge base at Corteva, understanding what they are seeing locally. We use that information daily to pass along to our retail partners and eventually into the growers’ hands. Ultimately, we all support production agriculture. Todd Gleason: The annual Weed Science Field Day is a singular event. How often do you talk with weed scientists across the systems? Jeff Bode: Multiple times throughout the growing season and throughout the year, at different meetings or functions. Todd Gleason: Thank you very much. Jeff Bode: Thank you. Todd Gleason: That is Jeff Bode with Corteva. We are now joined by Aaron Hager, weed scientist with University of Illinois Extension and faculty member here on campus. He puts together a good portion of this program. 10:07 Aaron Hager, University of Illinois Crop Scientist Todd Gleason: Aaron, you have a good turnout here today. When you bring in folks like Jeff Bode from Corteva and farmers, what are your hopes they will take away? Aaron Hager: When I started here in Illinois 33 years ago, the Weed Science tour was not actually open to the public. Back then, we had many companies synthesizing new herbicide molecules, and we might have anywhere from two to five brand new active ingredients every year. It was restricted mostly to the companies manufacturing those products. About 15 years ago, we decided to open this tour up to the general public. We provide a sign in front of each treatment of the first replicate and a tour booklet. They can use the tour booklet to find the second and third replicates of plots they are interested in. We do a lot of concept work now, too. For example, we started looking about eight years ago at taking a second look at Metribuzin to see what it can bring for soybean farmers aiming to get waterhemp under control pre-emergence. Recognizing that most triazine resistance in Illinois waterhemp populations is metabolic, Metribuzin still works. We did rate titrations across about 15 states, which is still a viable option for soybean farmers. We caution them to be successful by ensuring they get the application rate right. Todd Gleason: This is a one-off event today. Can researchers or retailers contact you to come see it at other times? Aaron Hager: Actually, we had a group ask to bring people this Friday. We will keep the signs up for several more weeks. If folks want to come out and take a look, they are welcome. If they let us know ahead of time, we can provide a tour booklet. Todd Gleason: I spoke with Aaron Hager earlier today at the Weed Science Field Day. If you would like to tour the plots, you can set that up with Aaron directly or call me, and I will put you in touch with him. My phone number is at WILLAg.org. 13:46 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention now to the growing regions across the planet. Drew Lerner is here. He is a meteorologist with World Weather, Inc. in Kansas City. Thank you for being with us today, Drew. Drew Lerner: I hope everything is good over your way. It certainly is warm and humid here. Todd Gleason: We had a beautiful morning for the Weed Science Field Day. I suppose the humidity is coming our way soon. I want to start in the fields, but not here in the United States. Europe, particularly France, has been suffering through a heat wave. Can you tell me about it, how it compares historically, and what it might mean? Drew Lerner: I have been forecasting the weather internationally for 47 years, and I do not remember a time when France was this hot for this many days in a row. We have seen temperature extremes in France running from 110 to 116 degrees for each of the last three days. Today’s afternoon temperatures were hottest in the interior northwest and southwest, reaching 115 and 113 respectively. We even hit 100 degrees in London today. We had significant heat wave activity in Western Europe in 2019 that set some records, but this might end up being one of the longer durations of extreme heat. We expect to see hot weather again tomorrow, and then as we go into Friday and the weekend, we will start to cool down the western parts of France and the UK. Eventually, that will shift across the rest of Europe. Germany will be next on the list for seeing temperatures over 100 in a significant manner. There is a lot of heat stress occurring for humans, livestock, and crops. The vegetative health index for France before this heat wave arrived was not as good as it was a year ago. I expect to see the crops look significantly impacted. We do not expect to see significant rainfall even after the heat wave backs off; it will be at least 10 days of minimal rainfall. Todd Gleason: Move into the Black Sea area and the growing regions of Russia. Drew Lerner: For the Black Sea, everything has been wonderful up to this point. We are now seeing some of this heat from Europe advertised to move into Ukraine, parts of southwestern Russia, Belarus, and the Baltic States. When that happens, we are going to see soil moisture decline. Right now, the soil moisture situation is rated quite favorably. We will keep a close eye on the drying coming up over the next week to 10 days. At the same time, we are going to see quite a bit of rain continuing in the central two-thirds of the Russian New Lands. That area produces primarily spring wheat and sunseed. They have been wet already most of this month, and we are going to see a lot more rain over the next week and a half, combined with cool temperatures. Todd Gleason: In the subcontinent, India, what do the crops look like today? Drew Lerner: Planting is advancing quite favorably across the subcontinent. We have another week to go before rain occurs. That means we are going to finish out June way below normal on precipitation. The country as a whole was 34 percent below normal rainfall for the month. July and August are by far more important for rain months, and I fully expect El Niño to underperform. I am expecting India to have its first national drought since 2016. In 2015 and 2016, the country ended up with less than normal precipitation. We do need to watch India closely because the potential is fairly high that their agricultural industry may be impacted by El Niño. Todd Gleason: A quick word on the conditions for corn areas in China. Drew Lerner: China looks pretty good. The main corn and soybean areas in the northeast are seeing routinely occurring rainfall. Central China is a little dry, which is perfect for the wheat being harvested now. In far southern China, there is definitely too much rain, and the quality of early-season rice is probably slipping lower. It is harvest time for the early-season crop, but they have two other crops they plant, so it is not necessarily a disaster at this point. Todd Gleason: Now come back to the United States. I would like to check in on the Central Valley in California first. Drew Lerner: Things out there are doing okay. The big concern for California is what happens over the next 12 months. We do not expect to see any excessive heat out that way for any great length of time. Water supply is still good, and we should be able to go through this entire growing season without any big issues for water. As we go through the winter, El Niño events typically produce excessive rains in parts of California. If we have a good water supply situation coming into the 2027 growing season, things will be fine. Todd Gleason: Finally, a word about the middle of the country, particularly the Corn Belt. Drew Lerner: South Dakota, western Iowa, northeastern Nebraska, and southwestern Minnesota are going to slip back into a more significant dry bias over the next 10 days. We are expecting to see a high-pressure ridge build across the Midwest next week. That ridge will work its way back to the west in the second week of the forecast, bringing heat into South Dakota, Iowa, and Minnesota, making that drier bias all the more significant. The rest of the Midwest will probably benefit from the heat and dryness for a short period of time. Todd Gleason: Thank you much. I appreciate it. Drew Lerner: You bet. Have a great day. Todd Gleason: You too. Drew Lerner is with World Weather, Inc. in Kansas City and helped us wrap up this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media online and on demand at WILLAg.org. I am Extension’s Todd Gleason.