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Getting to the Root Cause of Bobby Miller's Struggles · The Mound Visit

0:00
Speaker 1: Look at the big three, look at your strikeouts, look
0:02
Speaker 1: at your walks, look at your home run rate or
0:04
Speaker 1: another damage category, and then have a flow chart from
0:08
Speaker 1: there of what leads to success in those categories. So,
0:11
Speaker 1: if we're looking at strikeouts, it's your ability to create,
0:14
Speaker 1: swen and miss, it's your ability to get to two
0:17
Speaker 1: one two counts. Your stuff is obviously going to play
0:20
Speaker 1: a factor in that. So you need to evaluate how
0:21
Speaker 1: good your stuff is, your velocity, your pitch move and
0:23
Speaker 1: all those things. When we look at walk rate, what
0:26
Speaker 1: does your first pitch strikes look like? What is your
0:27
Speaker 1: early in ahead look like? What are your strike rates
0:30
Speaker 1: on all of your pitches? When we're looking at home
0:32
Speaker 1: run percentage, that's going to factor in a lot of things.
0:35
Speaker 1: We're going to be looking more specifically at, you know,
0:38
Speaker 1: your ability to get.
0:39
Speaker 2: Ahead as well.
0:39
Speaker 1: You're early in ahead numbers, but we're also gonna be
0:41
Speaker 1: looking at locations are you you know, maybe you're throwing strikes,
0:44
Speaker 1: but you're just throwing cookies right down the middle, and
0:46
Speaker 1: you need to get a little bit more finer with
0:48
Speaker 1: your command, or maybe your stuff isn't very good, so
0:51
Speaker 1: you throw strikes, but you're not able to miss bats
0:53
Speaker 1: or miss barrels because your stuff just isn't good enough. Okay,
1:06
Speaker 1: So today is going to kind of be a two
1:09
Speaker 1: to one.
1:10
Speaker 2: Type of video an episode.
1:12
Speaker 1: I'm going to break down my process when evaluating pictures,
1:17
Speaker 1: specifically when they're struggling and trying to get to the
1:20
Speaker 1: root cause of what's going wrong. And I think it's
1:23
Speaker 1: important to have a system in place, a process in place,
1:26
Speaker 1: to where it can be relatively easy to figure out
1:29
Speaker 1: what that problem is, figure out what the root causes,
1:32
Speaker 1: and then you can develop a plan from there. What
1:35
Speaker 1: I'm going to do is I'm actually going to walk
1:37
Speaker 1: through a specific player because I think that will make
1:39
Speaker 1: it easier to understand and give just a real life scenario.
1:43
Speaker 1: So the player that I'm going to go through is
1:45
Speaker 1: Bobby Miller of the La Dodgers. No secret, he is
1:49
Speaker 1: struggling mightily this season. This is by far the worst
1:53
Speaker 1: year of his career. Now this is only his second
1:55
Speaker 1: year in the big leagues, but just from a pure
1:57
Speaker 1: performance standpoint, he has never struggled quite like this. And
2:01
Speaker 1: it's pretty alarming if you're the Dodgers, because you know
2:04
Speaker 1: this is one of your top guys. He's expected to
2:07
Speaker 1: be a pitcher that is a mainstain in the rotation
2:09
Speaker 1: for years to come. So when he has struggles like
2:12
Speaker 1: he has this year at you know, the age of
2:14
Speaker 1: twenty five, it's gonna alarm you know, the organization.
2:19
Speaker 2: And what I think.
2:20
Speaker 1: Will be helpful today is just to walk through what
2:22
Speaker 1: I see and how that applies to just evaluating pitchers
2:26
Speaker 1: in general. So the first thing that I want to
2:28
Speaker 1: do is I want to be able to compare him
2:31
Speaker 1: to last season, because last season his rookie year through
2:34
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty four innings, I want to say,
2:37
Speaker 1: and had a very good year. It's a very good
2:39
Speaker 1: rookie season. He pounded the strike zone, had a good
2:42
Speaker 1: RA overall three point seven six, had a good FIP
2:45
Speaker 1: of three point five to one. It was just a
2:47
Speaker 1: solid year for being twenty four years old in the
2:49
Speaker 1: big leagues for his first year.
2:51
Speaker 2: Is a very good year.
2:52
Speaker 1: At this point, he has thrown fifty six innings in
2:55
Speaker 1: the big leagues, has battled some injuries, but has an
2:58
Speaker 1: eight and a half RA and six point nine to
3:01
Speaker 1: eight fit. So, you know, a drastic difference and change
3:04
Speaker 1: from one year to the next. Yes, there's been some injuries, Yes,
3:08
Speaker 1: that the sample size is much smaller, But if you've
3:10
Speaker 1: watched him pitch and you've just kind of follow the
3:13
Speaker 1: Dodgers loosely, you know that his name has been talked
3:15
Speaker 1: about a lot for struggling mighty lead this season. So
3:19
Speaker 1: the first thing I want to look at is I
3:21
Speaker 1: want to look at the three main stats, the three
3:24
Speaker 1: main drivers of performance in my opinion, and that's your
3:27
Speaker 1: ability to miss bats, to limit damage, and to limit
3:30
Speaker 1: free bases. If you're doing at least two of those
3:32
Speaker 1: three things, well you're more than likely having success. So
3:36
Speaker 1: let's dive into these and break these down one by one.
3:38
Speaker 1: So the first one is strikeouts. Average strikeout in the
3:42
Speaker 1: big leagues is right around twenty three percent. In twenty
3:45
Speaker 1: twenty three, he had a twenty three point six percent
3:47
Speaker 1: k rate, so not off the charts, wasn't striking out
3:50
Speaker 1: you know, the world, but also you know, wasn't below average.
3:52
Speaker 2: It's just a standard strikeout rate.
3:54
Speaker 1: This year in the big leagues he's at twenty percent,
3:56
Speaker 1: so it's taken a little bit of a dip and
3:58
Speaker 1: is definitely below average. A strikeout standpoint in his ability
4:02
Speaker 1: to miss bats. The next one we want to look
4:04
Speaker 1: at is walks. Average walk rate in the big leagues
4:07
Speaker 1: is around eight and a half percent for starters, though
4:10
Speaker 1: it's closer to like seven point eight seven point nine percent.
4:14
Speaker 1: Last year he had a six point three percent walk rate,
4:16
Speaker 1: which was phenomenal. If you're in the six percent range,
4:20
Speaker 1: you are definitely a strike thrower. You wouldn't consider this
4:22
Speaker 1: someone that has a walk issue. This year, things have
4:26
Speaker 1: changed crazy. Honestly, this is a really big jump from
4:30
Speaker 1: one year to the next. Eleven point six percent walk
4:33
Speaker 1: rate this year, so that is well, well well above average,
4:36
Speaker 1: you know, walking way too many guys. And what's interesting
4:39
Speaker 1: is if you look at his whole career, you know,
4:41
Speaker 1: the minor league's college, he never walked guys like this.
4:44
Speaker 1: He's historically had a very good walk rate. He's always
4:47
Speaker 1: been a strike thrower, which makes it even more alarming,
4:49
Speaker 1: and you know, makes you want to get to the
4:51
Speaker 1: root cause and figure out, like what is actually going
4:53
Speaker 1: on now? For me, being an outsider, I'm not going
4:56
Speaker 1: to have the intel of you know, what's going on,
4:59
Speaker 1: you know, you know between the lines, you know, or
5:01
Speaker 1: sorry off off out of the lines, off the field
5:04
Speaker 1: with the coaching staff, the conversations they're having maybe there's
5:07
Speaker 1: some injuries that are impacting some of these things. The
5:09
Speaker 1: mental side of the game, which at this point I
5:11
Speaker 1: imagine is a big part of his process and trying
5:15
Speaker 1: to get to the cause of what's going on mentally,
5:16
Speaker 1: because when you've had the success he has had and
5:19
Speaker 1: you start to struggle the way he is, it's only
5:22
Speaker 1: natural that there's going to be some mental demons that
5:24
Speaker 1: you have to battle and you have to work through.
5:26
Speaker 1: Moving on to the last one is damage, And there's
5:29
Speaker 1: a few ways that we can look at this. We
5:30
Speaker 1: can look at We could look at expected ISO, we
5:33
Speaker 1: could look at home run percentage, which is what I'm
5:35
Speaker 1: going to talk about today because that's been one of
5:38
Speaker 1: the bigger issues for him, is giving up home runs.
5:40
Speaker 1: So average home run rate in the big leagues is
5:43
Speaker 1: right around two point eight percent two point nine percent.
5:47
Speaker 1: Last year he was at two point four percent, so
5:49
Speaker 1: a little bit better than the league average. Home runs
5:52
Speaker 1: weren't an issue. This year, they have skyrocketed. He is
5:55
Speaker 1: at six point six percent, so more than double league average.
5:59
Speaker 1: Is the amount of home runs he's giving up per
6:01
Speaker 1: ball and play, which is just absolutely crazy. The amount
6:05
Speaker 1: of home runs he's given up in only fifty six innings,
6:07
Speaker 1: he has given up seventeen home runs. Thirteen of them
6:11
Speaker 1: have come on fastballs or sinkers. So as we start
6:14
Speaker 1: to break down his pitches and what's going on there,
6:17
Speaker 1: we'll talk about that a little bit more, but just
6:18
Speaker 1: want to point that out. Out of the seventeen home
6:20
Speaker 1: runs he has given up this year, thirteen are on
6:23
Speaker 1: fastballs and sinkers. So this gives us an outline, right,
6:28
Speaker 1: we can see, Okay, his strikeouts are worse, his walk
6:31
Speaker 1: crates are worse, and his home run rate is worse.
6:35
Speaker 1: So like every category, every major category has taken a
6:38
Speaker 1: step back this year. Now, strikeouts, they've definitely taken a dip,
6:42
Speaker 1: but not as much as the walks and the home runs.
6:45
Speaker 1: So for me, where I'm starting is I would want
6:48
Speaker 1: to look at the walks. I want to figure out
6:50
Speaker 1: why is he not walking guys? Or sorry, why is
6:52
Speaker 1: he walking guys? And usually that can kind of tie
6:56
Speaker 1: into the strikeout issue because if he's fallen behind every
7:00
Speaker 1: and he's never getting into two strike counts, of course
7:03
Speaker 1: his home run rate or sorry, his strikeout rate is
7:06
Speaker 1: going to be a little bit lower because he's just
7:07
Speaker 1: not having as many opportunities to strike guys out. So
7:11
Speaker 1: let's start by simply just looking at his stuff, because
7:15
Speaker 1: whenever guys take a dip in their performance, I want
7:17
Speaker 1: to see is there something that just jumps off the
7:19
Speaker 1: page that is regressed from a stuff standpoint. And we
7:22
Speaker 1: can see that, you know, if I look at these
7:24
Speaker 1: plots here, So for those of you that are watching,
7:26
Speaker 1: I have both of his pitch plots pulled up from
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Speaker 1: last year and this year. This one here in the
7:30
Speaker 1: middle is from twenty twenty three. The one on the
7:33
Speaker 1: right is from twenty twenty four. We can see that
7:36
Speaker 1: they look relatively the same, right like, especially the fastball,
7:40
Speaker 1: sinker and change up. Those pitches look like they're moving
7:42
Speaker 1: about the same. Curveball is about the same. Slider relatively
7:45
Speaker 1: the same. Looks like he was throwing a sweeper for
7:47
Speaker 1: a little bit last year. He's not this year. The
7:50
Speaker 1: slider this year might have a little bit more horizontal
7:53
Speaker 1: and a little bit more vert to it, which it does.
7:56
Speaker 1: Just looking at this you can kind of see it.
7:58
Speaker 1: But I've looked at the numbers. He does have a
8:00
Speaker 1: little bit more horizontal on the slider this year, a
8:02
Speaker 1: little bit more vertical movement as well, so like stuff wise,
8:07
Speaker 1: it's not you know, obvious that there's an issue going
8:11
Speaker 1: on there. From a velocity standpoint, velocity is down a
8:14
Speaker 1: little bit. He averaged around ninety nine last year with
8:16
Speaker 1: the fastball. This year it's about ninety seven and a half.
8:20
Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean a mile and a half off
8:22
Speaker 1: your fastball is definitely nothing to you know, to blink at.
8:26
Speaker 1: But he's still averaging ninety seven and a half miles
8:28
Speaker 1: an hour as a starting pitcher. So like, velocity to me,
8:32
Speaker 1: isn't a limiting factor, isn't the main issue. If you're
8:35
Speaker 1: a starter averaging ninety seven and a half, you're not
8:37
Speaker 1: expecting that to lead to damage, considering that league average
8:40
Speaker 1: is around ninety three and a half. So if we
8:42
Speaker 1: see that velocity is, you know, maybe a little bit lower,
8:45
Speaker 1: but it's still well well above average, especially for a
8:48
Speaker 1: starting pitcher. The movement of his stuff is relatively the same.
8:52
Speaker 1: That kind of rules out stuff being the issue from
8:55
Speaker 1: a performance standpoint. So next we want to look at
8:59
Speaker 1: is if we're going to look walks, because the walks,
9:01
Speaker 1: to me, is the thing that jumps off the page
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Speaker 1: of the most. I want to break this down by
9:05
Speaker 1: pitch type. Is there a specific pitch that he's struggling
9:07
Speaker 1: with to throw for strikes?
9:09
Speaker 2: Is there? You know?
9:10
Speaker 1: Is it all of them? Is he just falling behind?
9:12
Speaker 1: What is the exact issue here? And before I jump
9:15
Speaker 1: into that, I kind of jumped ahead of myself there.
9:18
Speaker 1: Two of the main stats I like to look at
9:20
Speaker 1: when we're evaluating walks is first pitch strikes and early
9:24
Speaker 1: and ahead. So first pit strikes, those have been tracked
9:26
Speaker 1: for years. Everybody looks at that. You know, ideally you're.
9:30
Speaker 2: Above sixty percent.
9:31
Speaker 1: Anything below sixty percent is you know, something you want
9:34
Speaker 1: to pay attention to. That's just fallen behind a little
9:37
Speaker 1: bit too much on the first pitch. Last year he
9:39
Speaker 1: had a sixty four percent first pitch strike right, which
9:42
Speaker 1: is phenomenal. Like I said, league averages around sixty one
9:45
Speaker 1: sixty two percent, So if you're above that, you're in
9:47
Speaker 1: a really good spot. And he was at sixty four percent.
9:50
Speaker 1: This year he's at fifty four percent, So he's taking
9:53
Speaker 1: a massive dip in his first pitch strikes down to
9:56
Speaker 1: fifty four percent.
9:57
Speaker 2: And it just makes sense.
9:58
Speaker 1: Right, if I'm behind one Ozho, I'm you know, I'm
10:00
Speaker 1: gonna have to groove pitches more, I'm not gonna be
10:02
Speaker 1: able to be as fine. I'm gonna have to attack
10:05
Speaker 1: hitters over the middle of the plate. Good big league
10:07
Speaker 1: hitters are going to take advantage of that despite him
10:10
Speaker 1: having the stuff that he has. The next thing I
10:12
Speaker 1: like to look at is something called early in ahead,
10:15
Speaker 1: And if you followed me for any length of time,
10:17
Speaker 1: you know that I talk about this stat frequently because
10:19
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, you might not throw,
10:21
Speaker 1: you know, a lot of first pitch strikes, so you
10:23
Speaker 1: might fall behind one oh on a guy. That doesn't
10:25
Speaker 1: mean that the at bat is over. If I still
10:27
Speaker 1: have a good early and ahead number, I'm still putting
10:29
Speaker 1: myself in a situation to have success into limit free bases.
10:33
Speaker 1: So what is early and ahead? And early is anytime
10:36
Speaker 1: the ball is put in play on three pitches or
10:38
Speaker 1: less except for a two oh count, so this would
10:41
Speaker 1: include oo counts one oh and oh one. And ahead
10:45
Speaker 1: is any time you get to an O two or
10:47
Speaker 1: one two count, regardless of the result. Something to keep
10:51
Speaker 1: in mind is you can only get one of these
10:53
Speaker 1: per ap bat. So let's just say you strike out
10:56
Speaker 1: a guy on three pitches an oh two count. You
10:58
Speaker 1: strike him out that doesn't count is an early because
11:00
Speaker 1: there's three pitches, and in ahead you would just get
11:03
Speaker 1: credit for the ahead. Also, let's say you get ahead
11:06
Speaker 1: O two and then you throw a ball, so now
11:07
Speaker 1: it's one two. You want to get credit for two
11:09
Speaker 1: points for that, where it'd be an O two and
11:11
Speaker 1: a one two count. You can only get one point
11:13
Speaker 1: for each batter faced, So you would add up all
11:16
Speaker 1: of the earlies and all the aheads and you would
11:18
Speaker 1: divide it by batters faced. League average is right around
11:21
Speaker 1: seventy three percent, so anything above that would be above
11:24
Speaker 1: average and would be ideal. You're really big strike throwers,
11:27
Speaker 1: and the guys that attack the zone are north of
11:29
Speaker 1: seventy five percent. So last year in twenty twenty three,
11:32
Speaker 1: he was at seventy five percent, so really really good
11:35
Speaker 1: early in ahead number. This year he is at sixty
11:38
Speaker 1: two point eight percent, which is putting him well blow average.
11:41
Speaker 1: I don't have you know the players in front of me,
11:44
Speaker 1: but out of starting pitchers and pitchers that have thrown
11:46
Speaker 1: at least fifty innings, I would guess that he's probably
11:48
Speaker 1: in the bottom ten with that stat. So when you're
11:52
Speaker 1: not throwing first pitch strikes and you're not getting ahead.
11:54
Speaker 1: It makes sense why he's walking as many guys as
11:58
Speaker 1: he is. So now that we see that, we see
12:00
Speaker 1: this first pitch strikes are bad. Is early in the
12:02
Speaker 1: head is bad. We now need to figure out is
12:05
Speaker 1: there a root cause with a pitch or is there
12:06
Speaker 1: a specific pitch that he is struggling with. Is it
12:08
Speaker 1: the fastball, is it a slide or is it a curveball,
12:10
Speaker 1: is it a change up? We need to break this
12:12
Speaker 1: down pitch chi by pitch because there might be one
12:15
Speaker 1: that is standing out as a sore thumb that he
12:16
Speaker 1: needs to improve to improve all these other numbers. So
12:20
Speaker 1: I'm now going to go just pitch by pitch comparing
12:22
Speaker 1: from last year to this year. So let's look at
12:24
Speaker 1: the four seam fastball to start. Let's look at strike
12:29
Speaker 1: percentage for this one. Like end zone percentage is super important,
12:32
Speaker 1: but for the sake of walks, the strike percentage is
12:34
Speaker 1: going to be the stronger correlation number that we want
12:37
Speaker 1: to look at. So if we look at the fastball
12:39
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, he threw it for a strike sixty
12:41
Speaker 1: nine point eight percent of the time, which is absolutely phenomenal.
12:44
Speaker 1: It's a really, really good strike rate. If we're north
12:47
Speaker 1: of sixty five percent of our fastball, we're in a
12:49
Speaker 1: really really good place. So he was at sixty nine
12:51
Speaker 1: point eight last year. This year he's at sixty nine
12:54
Speaker 1: point two percent, So he's still in a really good spot.
12:57
Speaker 1: So based off of this, I wouldn't say the fastball
13:00
Speaker 1: is the issue from the walk standpoint.
13:02
Speaker 2: Now we'll talk about the.
13:03
Speaker 1: Home runs in a little bit, but from a walk standpoint,
13:06
Speaker 1: he's in a really good spot at the fastball. This
13:08
Speaker 1: isn't the pitch that is causing him to fall behind
13:11
Speaker 1: and walk guys like he is. So now let's look
13:14
Speaker 1: at the sinker. The sinker in twenty twenty three, he
13:20
Speaker 1: threw four strike seventy four point five percent of the time,
13:23
Speaker 1: which is just absolutely ridiculous. That is very very high.
13:26
Speaker 1: This year, it is definitely taking a dip. It's at
13:28
Speaker 1: sixty five percent, so he's down almost ten percent. But
13:31
Speaker 1: I would still say, like sixty five percent is still
13:33
Speaker 1: a really good strike rate. So the fastball and the sinker,
13:36
Speaker 1: both of those don't seem to be the culprits for
13:38
Speaker 1: why he's walking guys. Now, let's look at the slider.
13:44
Speaker 1: Last year, he threw his slider for a strike about
13:46
Speaker 1: sixty one percent of the time is at sixty point
13:48
Speaker 1: seven not bad. Like with our off speed pitches, if
13:51
Speaker 1: we're north of sixty percent, we're in a fine place.
13:53
Speaker 1: As we get close to that sixty five percent rate,
13:55
Speaker 1: we're in more of the elite zone. But if he's
13:58
Speaker 1: north of sixty percent, that's not necessarily a main concern
14:01
Speaker 1: or an issue. So he's at sixty point seven percent
14:03
Speaker 1: last year, which was fine. This year, however, has taken
14:07
Speaker 1: a significant dip. He is at forty seven point five
14:10
Speaker 1: percent right now, so below fifty percent with his slider,
14:13
Speaker 1: which last year was one of his main off speed offerings.
14:16
Speaker 1: So the fact that he's down below fifty percent, this
14:18
Speaker 1: is a very alarming striker that we need to pay
14:22
Speaker 1: attention to. Now, he has only thrown fifty, you know,
14:26
Speaker 1: fifty six innings, and he's thrown one hundred and one
14:28
Speaker 1: pitches compared to three hundred and twenty eight sliders last year.
14:31
Speaker 1: But once we get north of one hundred pitches, this
14:33
Speaker 1: is definitely something we want to pay attention to and
14:35
Speaker 1: is a large enough sample size that can point us
14:38
Speaker 1: in the right direction. So based off of this, like
14:40
Speaker 1: the slider definitely needs some attention from an end zone
14:43
Speaker 1: and a strike percentage standpoint. Now let's move on to
14:47
Speaker 1: the curveball. Curveball last year was at sixty percent. This
14:51
Speaker 1: year it's at sixty one point five percent, So curveball
14:54
Speaker 1: doesn't appear to be an issue. He's thrown this pitch more.
14:56
Speaker 1: He's shown this pitch two hundred times this year compared
14:59
Speaker 1: to three hundred and sixty two last year. So like,
15:02
Speaker 1: once again, when you factored in the fact that he
15:03
Speaker 1: threw one hundred and twenty four innings last year and
15:05
Speaker 1: he's only thrown fifty six this year, that usage of
15:08
Speaker 1: that curveball has definitely gone up. And it's likely due
15:11
Speaker 1: to the fact that the slider isn't being thrown for
15:13
Speaker 1: a strike, but the curveball is. So he's probably riding
15:16
Speaker 1: that curveball a little bit more since that's the pitch
15:18
Speaker 1: that he is able to throw for a strike more frequently.
15:22
Speaker 2: Now, moving on.
15:22
Speaker 1: To his last pitch, the change up. Last year, he
15:27
Speaker 1: threw the change up for a strike fifty six percent
15:29
Speaker 1: of the time, so definitely below average. Like I said,
15:32
Speaker 1: I want that to be at least sixty percent or higher.
15:34
Speaker 1: He was at fifty six percent, so definitely below average.
15:37
Speaker 1: This year, it's even worse, it's at forty six percent.
15:40
Speaker 1: So the two main pitches that seem to be driving
15:43
Speaker 1: these walks are the slider and the change up. Change
15:47
Speaker 1: up definitely, you know, is an issue, but it also
15:49
Speaker 1: wasn't a huge strike pitch for him last year. The
15:52
Speaker 1: fact that the slider is as low as it is
15:54
Speaker 1: this year compared to last year is the main concern
15:56
Speaker 1: for me. So if I'm building a plan for for
16:00
Speaker 1: Bobby here, the slider's probably going to be our main focus.
16:03
Speaker 1: It's going to be being able to get that pitch
16:05
Speaker 1: end zone more so he has more weapons than just
16:07
Speaker 1: that fastball in that curve ball, and we can break
16:10
Speaker 1: this down, you know, even by by batter type, so
16:14
Speaker 1: because sometimes guys will walk more lefties than righties or
16:16
Speaker 1: vice versa, or they'll strike out more lefties and righties.
16:19
Speaker 1: There definitely can be some heavy platoons splits with these numbers,
16:22
Speaker 1: So you want to make sure you're paying attention to
16:23
Speaker 1: that because that can help guide some of your work
16:26
Speaker 1: as well of whether he needs to work on having
16:28
Speaker 1: a left in the box more or writing in the box.
16:30
Speaker 1: So let's look at lefties now, breaking all these down,
16:33
Speaker 1: and we'll go through these pretty quick. Starting with left handers.
16:38
Speaker 1: With the fastball, last year seventy percent strikes, this year
16:41
Speaker 1: seventy one, so really good against lefties. Sinker doesn't throw
16:45
Speaker 1: a lot of sinker, like hardly any so it's almost
16:47
Speaker 1: not even worth looking at. It's owned fourteen to lefties
16:50
Speaker 1: this year, but strike rates good seventy five percent last year,
16:52
Speaker 1: seventy one percent this year, extremely high. Let's look at
16:57
Speaker 1: the slider now, slider to lefties last year year was
17:00
Speaker 1: fifty four percent, so really low against lefties, and then
17:04
Speaker 1: this year it is at fifty eight percent, so you know, better,
17:08
Speaker 1: but still below average. Now this is a very small
17:10
Speaker 1: sample as well, Like he clearly doesn't throw the slider
17:13
Speaker 1: against lefties very often. He threw it eighty three times
17:16
Speaker 1: last year and he's only thrown at twelve times this year.
17:18
Speaker 1: And that's typically what you're going to see with guys
17:20
Speaker 1: that have multiple breaking balls. You're gonna throw your slider
17:23
Speaker 1: typically against same sided hitters, and you're gonna throw your
17:25
Speaker 1: curve ball against opposite handed hitters. So don't really want
17:28
Speaker 1: to pay attention to that too much. With how small
17:30
Speaker 1: that sample size is now looking at curveballs, strike grate
17:35
Speaker 1: last year was sixty percent against lefties, this year sixty
17:38
Speaker 1: one percent, so it's taken a step forward and is
17:40
Speaker 1: right around average for that pitch. And then the change
17:45
Speaker 1: up against lefties was at fifty seven percent last year
17:49
Speaker 1: forty six point nine percent this year, so that change
17:52
Speaker 1: up has taken a significant dip and is definitely one
17:54
Speaker 1: of those main culprits for him walking guys against lefties.
17:58
Speaker 1: So the change up's the main concern against the lecause
18:00
Speaker 1: he's primarily thrown four seamers, curveballs and change ups. The
18:03
Speaker 1: four seamer in the curveball are thrown for strikes at
18:06
Speaker 1: a good rate. The changeup is the one that's a
18:08
Speaker 1: little bit below average. And when we look at his
18:10
Speaker 1: walk rate against lefties last year, he walked eight point
18:13
Speaker 1: six percent of lefties this year eleven point four percent,
18:16
Speaker 1: So a big focus would need to be on that
18:18
Speaker 1: change up, especially considering how often he is throwing that pitch. Now,
18:23
Speaker 1: moving on to right handers, we'll start with the forcing
18:27
Speaker 1: fastball sixty eight point nine percent last year for strikes
18:30
Speaker 1: this year sixty six point eight, so not an issue
18:33
Speaker 1: that pitch is working well. The sinker last year seventy
18:37
Speaker 1: four percent, this year sixty four percent, So once again,
18:40
Speaker 1: it's definitely taken a dip, but it's still in a
18:42
Speaker 1: respectable range to where he's still throwing it at a
18:44
Speaker 1: high rate in the strike zone. The slider, This is
18:48
Speaker 1: going to be the big one for us. Last year
18:51
Speaker 1: sixty three percent strikes against righty's, this year only forty
18:54
Speaker 1: six percent. If he's going to get back on track
18:57
Speaker 1: with getting in the zone and not walking guys, this
18:59
Speaker 1: slider is.
19:00
Speaker 2: Going to be that main pitch for him.
19:03
Speaker 1: Curveball sixty percent last year, sixty one and a half
19:06
Speaker 1: percent this year. So that curveball has really kind of
19:08
Speaker 1: been I don't want to say saving grace because he's pitched,
19:11
Speaker 1: you know, really poorly this year. But if there has
19:14
Speaker 1: been a glimmer of hope, it's been being able to
19:16
Speaker 1: use that curveball against lefties and righty's and then change up.
19:19
Speaker 1: I'm guessing he hasn't thrown this too much against righty's
19:22
Speaker 1: sixty three so not a terribly small sample. And he's
19:26
Speaker 1: only throwing a first strike forty four percent of the
19:28
Speaker 1: time this year compared to fifty three percent last year
19:31
Speaker 1: and then walk right. Let's look at it overall against
19:33
Speaker 1: righty's he is at eleven point nine percent, so very
19:38
Speaker 1: similar to the left handers. He's walking rightis and lefties
19:41
Speaker 1: the same practically. But last year this is where it's crazy.
19:44
Speaker 1: Last year he only walked righty's three point eight percent
19:48
Speaker 1: of the time. So he has basically tripled his walk
19:51
Speaker 1: rate against right handers, and that slider is that main culprit.
19:54
Speaker 1: Once again, we really want to make sure that he
19:57
Speaker 1: is able to work on that, improve that, and have
19:58
Speaker 1: a development plan for that. That's what I would be
20:01
Speaker 1: doing if I was coaching him. So let's look at
20:03
Speaker 1: the slide. Let's just see where he's actually thrown to
20:05
Speaker 1: see if there's an obvious location difference from last year
20:09
Speaker 1: to this year.
20:10
Speaker 2: So let's go.
20:11
Speaker 1: I'm gonna filter this to last year to start, So
20:14
Speaker 1: for those of you that are watching, you'll see my
20:15
Speaker 1: heat map here. Looks like his slider is pretty much
20:19
Speaker 1: down and away for the most part, a little bit
20:20
Speaker 1: of the middle away, but just he's staying away with
20:22
Speaker 1: it for the most part right around the strike zone.
20:24
Speaker 1: Looks like he's doing a really good job with that pitch.
20:27
Speaker 1: Once again, it was a strike sixty three percent of
20:29
Speaker 1: the time. It was in zone about forty five percent
20:31
Speaker 1: of the time, which is good. I think Lee average
20:34
Speaker 1: is about forty four percent, So in zone was good.
20:36
Speaker 1: Strike strike percentage was good on this pitch.
20:38
Speaker 2: Not an issue at all.
20:39
Speaker 1: Last year expected wOBA of two sixty seven, which is
20:42
Speaker 1: very good. Let's now see how it's changed this year.
20:49
Speaker 1: This year a little bit more scattered Now it is
20:50
Speaker 1: a smaller sample right like he's you know, he's only
20:53
Speaker 1: thrown eighty nine against righty so far this year. But
20:55
Speaker 1: you can see there's a lot down and away, way
20:59
Speaker 1: off the plate, more of the spike variety. There's a
21:02
Speaker 1: couple that are just off the plate away. He's got
21:05
Speaker 1: a couple or not a couple, but he's got a
21:06
Speaker 1: little bit of a you know, a red target area
21:09
Speaker 1: heat map, you know, kind of middle up, which is
21:11
Speaker 1: obviously not where he wants that pitch to go.
21:14
Speaker 2: So it's kind of just all over the place.
21:15
Speaker 1: Last year there was a lot more consistency with where
21:17
Speaker 1: he was throwing this and you can see how that's
21:19
Speaker 1: really hurting his end zone and strike percentage thirty three
21:22
Speaker 1: percent in zone this year in a forty six percent
21:24
Speaker 1: strike rate.
21:25
Speaker 2: That's just not going to work.
21:26
Speaker 1: If that's going to be one of your main off
21:28
Speaker 1: speed pitches that you're going to use against rieties, you're
21:30
Speaker 1: going to have to be in the zone more. You're
21:32
Speaker 1: going to have to be able to command that pitch better.
21:34
Speaker 1: So that's the clear issue, right And once again, it's
21:38
Speaker 1: it's easy for me watching this. It's easy for me
21:41
Speaker 1: to say he's doing this wrong, he's doing you know, X,
21:44
Speaker 1: Y and zeroll and he needs to change this if
21:46
Speaker 1: he's going to be successful. It's easy to do that.
21:49
Speaker 1: It's easy to diagnose a problem. It's a completely another
21:52
Speaker 1: animal to actually come up with a development plan to
21:55
Speaker 1: improve those things and actually get him back on track.
21:59
Speaker 1: And it can be very chatlenging, you know, for me
22:01
Speaker 1: from the outside to create a plan for Bobby, because
22:03
Speaker 1: once again, I don't know him. I don't know what
22:05
Speaker 1: he's done in the past, I don't know what he's
22:07
Speaker 1: currently doing. I'm sure the Dodgers have tried multiple things
22:10
Speaker 1: they're trying to get them back on track, and I'm
22:12
Speaker 1: sure they're going a bunch of different routes to accomplish that.
22:15
Speaker 2: One of those routes.
22:16
Speaker 1: Without a doubt is going to be the mental side
22:18
Speaker 1: and figuring out, you know, how can he get back
22:22
Speaker 1: to the mentality had before if it has changed, if
22:24
Speaker 1: that confidence is waivered, how can he get back to
22:26
Speaker 1: where he was before? From you know, a mechanical standpoint
22:30
Speaker 1: or a trust standpoint. You know, I use trust a
22:32
Speaker 1: lot because the mental side is going to carry over
22:36
Speaker 1: into your mechanics. If I'm not confident in a pitch,
22:39
Speaker 1: if I don't believe I can execute it, or I
22:41
Speaker 1: have doubt, that's going to show up in my delivery,
22:43
Speaker 1: in my intent, my aggression. It might change, you know,
22:48
Speaker 1: my tempo on the mound, it could change a variety
22:50
Speaker 1: of things. So once again, without like literally studying him
22:53
Speaker 1: for hours, which I haven't studied him for hours, with
22:55
Speaker 1: his videos, I can't say for sure like what has
22:57
Speaker 1: changed because just to the name at I, you watch
23:00
Speaker 1: video from this year to last year pretty much the same.
23:03
Speaker 1: Maybe some subtle glove glove type changes, but for the
23:06
Speaker 1: most part, things are very similar. So what I would
23:11
Speaker 1: do without knowing what he's currently doing in the bullpen,
23:14
Speaker 1: just assuming he's not doing anything special, he's just you know,
23:16
Speaker 1: he's throwing his standard you know, five or six sliders
23:19
Speaker 1: in a bullpen. Maybe he has a batter standing in.
23:22
Speaker 1: What I would do is I would I would challenge
23:24
Speaker 1: him more because clearly there is some inconsistency here, so
23:29
Speaker 1: his you know, his repeatability is not there. So I
23:32
Speaker 1: would actually want to challenge that. I would want to
23:34
Speaker 1: make that even more difficult. And one way that we
23:36
Speaker 1: could do that is we could use differential balls. So
23:39
Speaker 1: you can see that he's actually spiking a lot of
23:41
Speaker 1: his a lot of his are going down to the
23:42
Speaker 1: glove side. So what I would do is I would
23:45
Speaker 1: mix in some smaller balls, so I would use the
23:48
Speaker 1: minus five percent differential balls. Because what that's going to
23:51
Speaker 1: do is it's going to feed the mistake. It's going
23:53
Speaker 1: to make him want to spike this pitch even more,
23:55
Speaker 1: so he's going to have to make those subtle adjustments
23:57
Speaker 1: that release to be more consistent. So bychallenging that variability,
24:01
Speaker 1: it's actually going to allow him to be more consistent
24:03
Speaker 1: when he's only using a baseball. The bigger we can
24:06
Speaker 1: challenge it and stretch out that bandwidth of what the
24:09
Speaker 1: adjustments he has to make pitch to pitch, the easier
24:12
Speaker 1: it's going to be in a game when it's simply
24:14
Speaker 1: just a baseball, because every pitch, no matter what type
24:17
Speaker 1: of pitch you're throwing or you know, what you're doing
24:19
Speaker 1: with the baseball, there's always adjustments. You're adjusting where you're
24:23
Speaker 1: throwing in the zone, you're adjusting what pitch type you're throwing.
24:26
Speaker 1: Depending on the day, the mound, the weather, all those
24:29
Speaker 1: things are going to play factors do where you're constantly
24:31
Speaker 1: making these adjustments. So if in your training we can
24:34
Speaker 1: make those adjustments on a larger scale to where you
24:37
Speaker 1: really have to adapt and make adjustments on a larger scale.
24:40
Speaker 1: When you get in a game and there's all these
24:41
Speaker 1: minor adjustments you have to make, it's going to feel
24:43
Speaker 1: a lot easier.
24:44
Speaker 2: So that would be one route.
24:45
Speaker 1: That you could go with him, is you could have
24:47
Speaker 1: differential balls, like a lot of you know, minus five
24:49
Speaker 1: percentage balls mixed in with the baseball. You could even
24:52
Speaker 1: mix in some of the bigger balls to really take
24:54
Speaker 1: the next step to challenge them with three different types
24:56
Speaker 1: of balls. But you want to make sure the success
24:58
Speaker 1: rate is high enough to where he's not, you know,
25:03
Speaker 1: losing confidence completely, Like if he's only throwing you know,
25:05
Speaker 1: two out of ten sliders for a strike, like that's
25:07
Speaker 1: probably failing too much. But if he's at four out
25:10
Speaker 1: of ten, three out of ten, even like we can
25:12
Speaker 1: work with that. If it's seven out of ten, eight
25:14
Speaker 1: out of ten, that's definitely way too easy. And that's
25:17
Speaker 1: actually just telling you that there's a difference between the
25:19
Speaker 1: bullpen and the game to where if he's able to
25:21
Speaker 1: throw it for a strike in the pen but not
25:23
Speaker 1: in the game, there's something not transferring, whether it's you know,
25:26
Speaker 1: the pressure of the game, the heart rates speeding up,
25:29
Speaker 1: all those different types of things, which is where it
25:31
Speaker 1: gets fun as a coach is figuring out what is
25:34
Speaker 1: that root cause, Like is the game speeding up on them?
25:37
Speaker 1: Are they able to be successful in a bullpen but
25:39
Speaker 1: not in the game, or are they struggling in both
25:41
Speaker 1: areas And you kind of have to start from square
25:43
Speaker 1: one of you know, the mental side and you know
25:46
Speaker 1: some of these more difficult, challenging bullpens, and in kind
25:49
Speaker 1: of figuring out what those root causes are, like, that's
25:52
Speaker 1: one avenue you can go. Definitely having a batter stand
25:55
Speaker 1: in would be helpful. Throwing bullpens, even on a game field,
25:58
Speaker 1: can be helpful because the environment can be very very tight,
26:04
Speaker 1: very enclosed to where it feels safe in a way, right,
26:08
Speaker 1: Like it's more enclosed, there's not really a lot of
26:10
Speaker 1: things going on around you for the most part. Now,
26:12
Speaker 1: big league stadiums a little bit different. It's a little
26:14
Speaker 1: bit more open, even in the bullpens, but it's still
26:16
Speaker 1: not the same as being on a game mound. When
26:18
Speaker 1: you have all those seats around you, all that open space,
26:21
Speaker 1: it can just feel different. So, you know, for guys
26:24
Speaker 1: that struggle with command or just transferring that feeling from
26:27
Speaker 1: a bullpen to the game, spending more time on the
26:29
Speaker 1: game mound can be super benefitficial and super helpful.
26:33
Speaker 2: So those are just.
26:33
Speaker 1: Some, you know, some basic ideas that you could do.
26:35
Speaker 1: Once again, you know, you'll get a lot more specific
26:38
Speaker 1: with your own guys when you know them personally and
26:40
Speaker 1: you know what you've tried, you know how they you
26:43
Speaker 1: know how they naturally work, and what some of their
26:47
Speaker 1: tendencies are and what they gravitate a little bit more too,
26:50
Speaker 1: that that can be helpful as well. But those just
26:52
Speaker 1: some examples that you could start with. So we pretty
26:56
Speaker 1: much figured out what the issue is with the walks, right,
26:58
Speaker 1: it's the slider and the changeup smarily that's the slider,
27:01
Speaker 1: especially considering that's one of his main breaking ball options,
27:05
Speaker 1: specifically for right handers. And to me, like the strikeouts,
27:09
Speaker 1: like if he starts throwing strikes some more and he
27:10
Speaker 1: guess that's slider working again, the strikeouts are going to
27:13
Speaker 1: go up. Because let's just break this down, let me
27:16
Speaker 1: get rid of that changes to the last two years again,
27:20
Speaker 1: because the ahead equation of the earl and ahead is
27:24
Speaker 1: basically telling us how often are they striking guys out.
27:27
Speaker 1: If you're going to know two to one two counts frequently,
27:29
Speaker 1: you're going to be striking out a lot of batters.
27:32
Speaker 1: So the ahead percentage number is really helpful. Like I
27:34
Speaker 1: actually separate that number for a different status to see
27:38
Speaker 1: how often they're in OH two and one two counts
27:39
Speaker 1: rather than lumping it with early and ahead. For big
27:43
Speaker 1: league average, it's right around thirty nine to forty percent.
27:46
Speaker 1: Last year, he was at forty two point eight percent,
27:48
Speaker 1: so he was actually an O two one two counts
27:50
Speaker 1: more than league average. This year, he's only in O
27:53
Speaker 1: two one two counts thirty two point two percent of
27:56
Speaker 1: the time. So if you're not an O two one
27:58
Speaker 1: two counts often you're not going to strike out a
27:59
Speaker 1: lot of guys, which is exactly what we're seeing. So
28:02
Speaker 1: if we get him in the zone more, he starts
28:03
Speaker 1: throwing strikes more, I guarantee his misrate's gonna go up,
28:06
Speaker 1: and he's gonna be an o two one two counts
28:08
Speaker 1: more and he's going to strike out more guys. So,
28:10
Speaker 1: like to me, that's not an area you would focus
28:13
Speaker 1: on home runs. This one gets a little bit interesting
28:17
Speaker 1: because I think if he gets ahead, he definitely gives
28:20
Speaker 1: up fewer home runs because if you think about it,
28:23
Speaker 1: if they can eliminate pitches, if they can eliminate the
28:26
Speaker 1: fact that you're not gonna be able to throw your
28:27
Speaker 1: slider for a strike, you're not gonna be able to
28:28
Speaker 1: throw your change up for a strike. All I have
28:30
Speaker 1: to really worry about is your fastball and your curveball.
28:33
Speaker 1: The odds are pretty good in my favor, right, Like,
28:35
Speaker 1: if the fastball specifically is the main one that you
28:38
Speaker 1: can throw for a strike, I can eliminate pitches, and
28:41
Speaker 1: now I'm able to sit dead red, especially if you
28:43
Speaker 1: fall behind on me one two oh two one, I
28:46
Speaker 1: know that you only have confidence in that fastball for
28:48
Speaker 1: a strike. So I'm gonna sit on that pitch and
28:51
Speaker 1: be ready to hit it, and that's why you're seeing
28:53
Speaker 1: thirteen out of the seventeen home runs being on fastballs
28:56
Speaker 1: and sinkers. So I think it still comes back to
28:58
Speaker 1: getting ahead. Like getting ahead that is going to solve
29:00
Speaker 1: a lot of his problems. With that said, I did
29:03
Speaker 1: compare afterh one and one OHO counts last year and
29:07
Speaker 1: a head counts for the home run rate, and the
29:09
Speaker 1: home run rate is still significantly higher this year even
29:12
Speaker 1: when he's in a head counts compared to last year.
29:14
Speaker 1: So let's just break that down real quick. After OH
29:17
Speaker 1: one counts, So after a first pit strike, the result
29:22
Speaker 1: of the bat is a home run rate last year
29:25
Speaker 1: of three point one percent after an OH one count
29:29
Speaker 1: this year four point five percent. So even after OH one,
29:31
Speaker 1: he's still giving up a fair amount more home runs
29:33
Speaker 1: than he was last year. Strikeouts after an OH one
29:37
Speaker 1: count this year thirty point six percent last year thirty
29:39
Speaker 1: two percent, walks last year three point four percent, this
29:43
Speaker 1: year six point three percent. So the numbers still are
29:46
Speaker 1: are worse this year compared to last year, even after
29:48
Speaker 1: an OH one count, but those numbers are still very
29:51
Speaker 1: very good after OH one counts. Like if he if
29:54
Speaker 1: he pitched like that for the whole year to where
29:55
Speaker 1: those were his numbers, he would be in a very
29:57
Speaker 1: very good place. Now where it gets interesting if we
30:00
Speaker 1: look after an oh one count or sorry, after a
30:02
Speaker 1: one oho count last year he walked fifteen point six
30:08
Speaker 1: percent of guys or sorry, last year he walked twelve
30:10
Speaker 1: point nine percent of guys, which, of course you're gonna
30:13
Speaker 1: walk a lot of guys, you know, on average if
30:14
Speaker 1: you fall behind one oh. This year, he's walking nineteen
30:17
Speaker 1: point seven percent after one oh. Last year, despite falling
30:22
Speaker 1: behind one oh, he only give a home run zero
30:24
Speaker 1: point six percent of the time after one OHO counts.
30:27
Speaker 1: This year seven point seven percent of the time. Absolutely crazy,
30:31
Speaker 1: That is a ridiculously high number. So while you could
30:34
Speaker 1: see the dinners from last year to this year, after
30:37
Speaker 1: oh one counts is a little bit different, but not
30:39
Speaker 1: terribly different. But this year compared to last year, after
30:42
Speaker 1: one oho counts is significantly different. He's walking way more
30:46
Speaker 1: guys and he's given up way more home runs. And
30:48
Speaker 1: I think once again it comes back to he falls behind.
30:51
Speaker 1: The fastball is the main pitch that he can throw
30:53
Speaker 1: for a strike. So now as a big league hitter.
30:55
Speaker 1: Once again, they're eliminating pitches and they're able to do
30:57
Speaker 1: damage on the fastball despite it being in.
31:00
Speaker 2: The upper nineties.
31:02
Speaker 1: One last thing I want to look at around this
31:04
Speaker 1: is just overall in ahead and behind counts. So this
31:07
Speaker 1: will just be all all counts that are either behind
31:10
Speaker 1: or ahead. So let's start with the head counts or
31:14
Speaker 1: pitcher counts. So this is OH one, two, one two
31:18
Speaker 1: and two to two last year two point eight percent
31:23
Speaker 1: home run rate in these situations with a thirty five
31:25
Speaker 1: percent k rate this year five point seven percent home
31:29
Speaker 1: run rate, so double the home run rate thirty nine
31:32
Speaker 1: percent k rate. So he's striking out more guys actually
31:35
Speaker 1: in pitcher counts this year, but he's giving up twice
31:37
Speaker 1: as many home runs. So it still comes back to
31:39
Speaker 1: there's still a home run issue no matter which way
31:41
Speaker 1: you look at it. But it get everything always gets
31:43
Speaker 1: way worse in hitter counts. So now we're looking at
31:46
Speaker 1: two oh counts three H two, one three one and
31:49
Speaker 1: one oh in these counts after those counts or in
31:54
Speaker 1: those counts rather two point three percent home run rate
31:56
Speaker 1: last year, twelve point seven this year. So once again,
32:02
Speaker 1: in a head counts. It's bad, it's worse. It's definitely
32:05
Speaker 1: worse than last year. And behind counts it is off
32:09
Speaker 1: the charts worse from last year. Really, getting behind is
32:13
Speaker 1: is just killing him. It is absolutely killing him getting
32:15
Speaker 1: behind specifically not being able to throw that slider for
32:18
Speaker 1: a strike.
32:18
Speaker 2: I know I've sounded like.
32:19
Speaker 1: A broken record saying it, but it's just it is
32:21
Speaker 1: staring us right in the eyes of what the main
32:23
Speaker 1: issue is and what needs to be improved. So that
32:27
Speaker 1: is the main thing. Those are the three main hitters
32:29
Speaker 1: that I am looking at. I want to look at
32:32
Speaker 1: from a performance standpoint, their strikeouts, their walks, and their
32:36
Speaker 1: home runs or any other damage stat you like to
32:38
Speaker 1: look at, right, like if you're in high school or
32:41
Speaker 1: even in college, like home run rate might not tell
32:43
Speaker 1: you a lot because you know, home run rates are
32:46
Speaker 1: probably a lot lower at those levels. Actually I know
32:47
Speaker 1: they are, especially you know, in high school, or it
32:49
Speaker 1: just depends on the field you're at. So I would
32:51
Speaker 1: probably just use ISO if I was at the high
32:54
Speaker 1: school level. So what that is, that's just slugging percentage
32:57
Speaker 1: minus batting average. So let's just say you bat two
33:00
Speaker 1: fifty and you have a five hundred slugging percentage, that
33:04
Speaker 1: would be a two to fifty ISO. If you're at
33:06
Speaker 1: two hundred plus that is definitely elite. About one eighty
33:09
Speaker 1: is considered good. If you're like below below one fifty,
33:12
Speaker 1: it's a little bit below average. But once again, it's
33:14
Speaker 1: kind of lead dependent and level dependent. But you just
33:17
Speaker 1: want to look at something that is more in the
33:19
Speaker 1: damage category because if once again, if we're missing bats,
33:22
Speaker 1: if we're limiting free basis and we're limiting damage, we're
33:25
Speaker 1: going to be successful. You're gonna have a really really
33:27
Speaker 1: hard time finding a picture that isn't successful doing at
33:30
Speaker 1: least two of those three things really really well.
33:33
Speaker 2: You're two out of three.
33:33
Speaker 1: The guys that can do those two out of three
33:35
Speaker 1: times well are good pictures. The guys that can do
33:37
Speaker 1: all three well are great pictures. If you're only good
33:40
Speaker 1: at one out of three, it's going to be a
33:42
Speaker 1: little bit of struggle. If you're doing none of those
33:45
Speaker 1: three well, it's really going to be a struggle. You're
33:47
Speaker 1: gonna have a really hard time finding a picture that
33:49
Speaker 1: doesn't do those things well and is having success.
33:52
Speaker 2: It's funny.
33:52
Speaker 1: I actually did a post about this the other day
33:55
Speaker 1: about Javier Asad for the Cubs, and he you know,
33:58
Speaker 1: he's not terrible at anything, but he's definitely slightly below
34:01
Speaker 1: average with strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Their home runs
34:06
Speaker 1: are about average, and he has a career ERA of
34:10
Speaker 1: three point one six and he over the last three
34:12
Speaker 1: years has been below average in all those categories. But
34:15
Speaker 1: somehow he finds a way to be successful. And I
34:17
Speaker 1: literally have not found someone like him yet when I
34:21
Speaker 1: was doing my research the other day on him. So
34:23
Speaker 1: there's always outliers. There's always outliers no matter what we're
34:26
Speaker 1: looking at. I just want you to assume that you
34:29
Speaker 1: are not one, or your players are not one, because
34:30
Speaker 1: the chances are they're not. There's a reason they're called outliers.
34:34
Speaker 1: So I hope this was helpful. I hope this points
34:37
Speaker 1: you in the right direction when you're evaluating your guys
34:41
Speaker 1: or yourself. If you are a pitcher, you know to summarize,
34:44
Speaker 1: look at the big three, look at your strikeouts, look
34:46
Speaker 1: at your walks, look at your home run rate or
34:48
Speaker 1: another damage category, and then have a flow chart from
34:52
Speaker 1: there of what leads to success in those categories. So
34:55
Speaker 1: if we're looking at strikeouts, it's your ability to create
34:58
Speaker 1: swing and miss. It's your ability to to get to
35:01
Speaker 1: two one two counts. Your stuff is obviously going to
35:04
Speaker 1: play a factor in that, So you need to evaluate
35:05
Speaker 1: how good your stuff is, your velocity, your pitch move,
35:07
Speaker 1: and all those things. When we look at walk rate,
35:10
Speaker 1: what does your first pitch strikes look like? What is
35:11
Speaker 1: your early and a head look like? What are your
35:13
Speaker 1: strike rates on all of your pitches. When we're looking
35:16
Speaker 1: at home run percentage, that's gonna facture in a lot
35:18
Speaker 1: of things. We're gonna be looking more specifically at, you know,
35:22
Speaker 1: your ability to get ahead as well. You're early in
35:24
Speaker 1: ahead numbers, but we're also gonna be looking at locations
35:27
Speaker 1: are you you know, maybe you're throwing strikes, but you're
35:28
Speaker 1: just throwing cookies right down the middle and you need
35:30
Speaker 1: to get a little bit more finer with your command.
35:33
Speaker 1: Or maybe your stuff isn't very good so you throw strikes,
35:36
Speaker 1: but you're not able to miss bats or miss barrels
35:38
Speaker 1: because your stuff just isn't good enough. So that's the
35:41
Speaker 1: flow chart I kind of want you to think about.
35:43
Speaker 1: Have those big three that you're looking at, and then
35:45
Speaker 1: look at the categories underneath those that ultimately lead to success.
35:49
Speaker 1: And figure out what the lowest handing fruit is for
35:51
Speaker 1: you that's gonna have the biggest impact on every other category.
35:54
Speaker 1: If you do that, you're gonna have a really good
35:56
Speaker 1: plan in place. You're gonna have the ability to get
35:58
Speaker 1: better and move forward word and ultimately, you know, become
36:02
Speaker 1: a successful pitcher. So I hope this was sellful. Guys
36:04
Speaker 1: really appreciate your time, and as always, if you have
36:07
Speaker 1: any questions, don't hesitate to ask. I'll see you guys
36:09
Speaker 1: next time.