Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / ⚠️FED Green Lights Massive Rally + Stock Market News 04 April 2024

Transcript

⚠️FED Green Lights Massive Rally + Stock Market News 04 April 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: And good morning to you.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: And it is a morning that is blessed by the Fed, because Papa Powell said all the right things yesterday.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: He smoothed it all over, it's all going to be just fine.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: So don't worry about a thing.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know what.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: We've got audio on here.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Okay, it's gone.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: So let me walk you through.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Still got a bit of an echo, don't we?
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Hmm, a bit of an echo.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: How does that happen?
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Still an echo.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Okay, let me walk you through everything that's just happened, everything that's important to understand today, and let me also give you a monster benchmark, because I think it'll be very useful for you.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: So let me share my screen with you.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Here we are.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: We've got the full S&P 500 benchmark at Felix Rensselaer Locks, like S&P 500.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: And what you can do is actually I'll just do it for you you can filter this.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: It's 500 rows, isn't it?
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: If we do that, we hit the filter button.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: You can now filter.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: So you can say I only want to look at the companies with the gross profit margin that is greater than, say, 60, which is sort of the sweet spot not all industries, of course, but generally that's a pretty good place to be.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: And then if you were clever enough to actually hit the greater than and hit the OK button, and now you'd only have 109 companies left, probably the 109 decent ones, more or less.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: I mean slightly oversimplification, but you can do the same thing on return on invested capital, on earnings growth, earnings per share growth and, of course, much, much more.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: So play around with it.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: I think it'll make you into a smarter, certainly better informed investor.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Something really weird going on here with our audio, which is really, really weird, but let's try that it solves the problem.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Um right, so free market glorious, bushy eyed and green, absolutely wonderful stuff.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: Nvidia, up 1.6 percent at 889 dollars here.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Pre-market microsoft up.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Meta up 1.8 percent, amazon up.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Even tesla, up 1.1 percent, are at 168.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Everything is up, basically, with the exception of Google.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Google now identifies as a rubbish search engine or something I don't know, but let me walk you through why.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: And then we look at a few more really, really important data points and, of course, ask me all your questions.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: I will do my utmost to answer them.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: And this, by the way, is the last live stream of this week.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: I am in Seoul tomorrow, seoul Korea, which I very much look forward to.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Lots of eating and shopping and seeing friends and people.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: And I'm actually seeing a cat Very cool cat, seriously.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: There's a cat that lived with us for about six months at one point.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: So a friend had to leave town rapidly on the focus of a job and they had quarantine there.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: So we looked after this cat for six months.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Very sweet creature, and we're going to see her too because she's moved to Seoul.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: So what actually happened is, well, the ADP, so basically we got more jobs created.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: Right, that was the unpleasant surprise, because the market likes it and everyone's unemployed Not quite, but the Fed likes it if unemployment goes up, job numbers go down, because it means they can cut interest rates.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: And that wasn't really brilliant.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: But Papa Powell came out and said Jay to the rescue.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: He said don't worry about a thing.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: Where is this lovely little quote here?
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: It's at the top of this, wasn't it?
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Where did it go?
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: Jay Powell's remarks at University Wednesday were a rehash of a familiar chorus, but that didn't stop everybody from hanging on his word.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: He said it's data dependent.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Rate cuts will happen when there is enough confidence.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: And he basically said don't worry about the short-term bits of data too much, so the market's loving it and other major news.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Do you know these guys?
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Amundi, depending on where you hail from Europe's biggest asset manager, 2.1 trillion under management.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: And they said she looks very stern, doesn't she?
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: She missed buying the dip.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: She didn't do it, no, so she got a spanking and now she says she's going to buy every dip there ever was.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: So she's learned her lesson.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: And he said we might upgrade the risk posture of the portfolios.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Any correction in the market is a buy opportunity rather than a consolidation, and that, of course, is positive because it means every time the market dips, somebody with 2.1 trillion at their fingertips, would you look that miserable?
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: If you managed $2.1 trillion, I thought you might look a little bit more smiley, but yeah, so that's useful.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Now Apple coming out saying they're exploring home robotics, like it's a brand new thing, and once I come up with the idea and I think it shows how little they have done Look at the innovation.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: The last innovation really were airports 2016.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: That's eight years ago.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: Do they have an engineering department?
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Do they have an R&D department?
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Do they spend billions of dollars every quarter on it?
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: What the F are they doing?
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: The Apple Watch was 2015.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: The iPad was 2010.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: The iPhone was 2007, which, of course, is the biggest seller and well, the Mac 1984.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: So they really haven't done a lot, have they?
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: So home robotics?
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Well, I could see I mean, a lot of people already have the you know, siri running their home and that kind of thing, so you can kind of see it.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: But it's a bit late, isn't it?
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: Maybe they should buy somebody who's done it and then branded and put it out there.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: I think that might be something to do.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on with Apple Obviously still brilliant numbers and amazing software, but look, you could put M&Ms in it.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: It's obviously not theirs, but just a thing.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, it's not like this is Amazon's home robot.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Slow to catch on.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: What does it do?
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: It brings you M&Ms.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: So not that useful.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Really, if you just tuned in, make sure you A smash the like button.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: B get your hands on our free S&P 500 benchmark.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: Every single of the 500 S&P companies are in there and you can see all their key data points and everything else, which I think will be quite useful.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: I can see a few of you already in there and I'll, if you want to see what's actually going on in the smart money tab.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: So what are the dark pools hiding from us?
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: And I typed in here, for example, palantir, and I can see the two largest trades about a million dollars together in premium are quite bullish.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: Certainly, the top one is by a $15 call.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: That's quite bullish, although it's below the market.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: It's not massively bullish and this gives you a little bit of an insight into what's going on there.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: Obviously, not just Palantir, but every other stock as well.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Out there, massive trades here 86 million, 47 million and so on and you can see that on all the major stocks and you can see that live every single day, basically before pretty much everybody else out there.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: So if you want to get your paws on that, you know what to do Go to optionswatchio the link is also down below in the description, but I'll put it in the chat for you as well and there is a free trial you can do.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: So you can check it out and play with it and it's completely risk-free.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: And if you join the free trial and you like it, you'll get to keep the low price that our founders tier has.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: If you wait another week, prices will go up.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: So if you are interested in this, maybe jump on it and it's a risk-free proposition, basically.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: So I'm proposing this to you Check it out, and you can see that in, of course, a lot of other stuff as well in this app.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: So let's run through a few other key things and then we will look at, of course, the market, any stocks you want to look at.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: This is a rather blurry stock chart of Starbucks, which, of course, we could also pull up in slightly less blurry, and Starbucks is really really failing miserably in terms of stock price right now.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: This is a new low since 2022.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: And yeah, you see, I quite like Starbucks as a business, but they do seem to have not the smartest lot running it right now.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: I'm not really quite sure why, but technically it looks a freaking disaster.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: I know we're up a little bit today here.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: We're up just about to the support level here at $89, and that's basically like you hanging outside a building of the 19th floor and you still got two fingers on the ledge.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: That's basically where Starbucks is right now in terms of technicals.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: So that's something to look at.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: And, oh yeah, ai the whole AI world is basically going to build data centers like nobody's business, and I think people don't quite realize that yet.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: I'll also put out another video, maybe over the weekend, where we dive a little bit deeper into another way of making some money on that.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: I put one out yesterday on copper, which is a very interesting trade I thought.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: So have a look at that.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Obviously, always come to your own conclusions, but if you look at the server market growth that we're expecting, you know server markets have been growing at these kind of levels 2022, 2023, not a lot and the predicted growth is absolutely insane because of AI and if everything is run by AI, if everybody actually utilizes their big data, they're going to need much, much more powerful computing systems and therefore they have to rent server space basically.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: So there is a lot of money to be made in that potentially.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Dell, for example, is one stock that's lauded by Goldman Sachs this morning for that very reason.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Nvidia's Huang lauded in the other day at that NVIDIA meet and he basically said nobody is better than Dell at building complex servers and server systems.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: So that could be something to possibly look at.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: And NVIDIA, well, it just doesn't get any more expensive, does it?
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: This is the forward PE ratio of NVIDIA since 1998.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: And it's basically trading at the same level it was trading at 22 years or 24 years ago, because they're growing so quickly that the share price is actually arguably somewhat justified.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: I've just discovered electrolytes sugar-free ones and I'm absolutely loving it.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you ever take that, but if you exercise a lot, I sort of felt quite drained a lot of the time the next day.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: This stuff, amazing.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: So that's why I'm slurping at the moment Warm electrolytes.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: I highly recommend it.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: There was a chap when I was in Portugal at a mastermind.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: He was sort of a coach to the stars, if you will, and he coached like all these really, really successful people, and that was one of the things he said and I was like that's interesting, let me try that.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: So, funnily enough, I flew back on Emirates first class.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: They give you electrolytes to keep you cheerful, I imagine, and it's probably a really good thing to do.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: Actually, if you ever have meetings with customers, give them some electrolytes.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: They're going to be like yeah, I love it, I'm in a great mood and um, yeah, I've been been addicted to them ever since, so hopefully there's no cocaine in it.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: This is well, this is really the market.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: And um, the max seven without tes Tesla have gone up 25%.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: The Mach 7 overall 16%, the QQQ only 7%, the S&P 9.5%.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: The Mach 7 without NVIDIA has gone up only 6%.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: So 16% of.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Well, depending on how you look at it, 10% of the 16% increase in the max seven comes from nvidia.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: So really, this rally is all freaking nvidia.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: You strip out nvidia and nothing happened at all.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: So you better hope that ai bloody works right and people are going to keep buying nvidia here.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Um, this is also, I thought, quite enlightening just to see the difference in performance here.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: So Meta last 12 months has done very well.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: It did come from a pretty dark, gloomy dungeon.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Amazon 80% up.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: Nvidia up 235%.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Microsoft and Google also doing quite well 50% up.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: But Tesla and Apple are really struggling.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: I quite like Tesla at these prices.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: I, I, I I'd say I.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: I must say obviously not of, not of the buy advice, but I'm quite liking it.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: With apple, yeah, service growth is good, but it's kind of like how are they going to monetize?
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: I think there are a billion iphones out there, seriously a billion people walking around with an iPhone, and that's, of course, an insane user base that you can make money out of.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: If you just made like 10 cents a day out of them, then you're making 100 million a day, right, but how are they going to do that?
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: Apps, yes, but how can they increase it?
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: And I haven't really seen that yet.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: We had the Apple banking thing.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: That doesn't seem to have massively taken off.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: The car thing obviously didn't work.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: I thought it was a daft idea.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: Now they're looking at home robots, like they should focus on extracting more money and getting people more hooked into the ecosystem that's already there.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: That would be my view, but we'll see.