Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - NFL Week 6 Betting Preview
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: It's the Favorites presented by FanDuel. Football season is here
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- 1:00Speaker 1: redline is one eight nine called one eight five to
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- 1:09Speaker 1: Dot one gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to
- 1:21Speaker 1: The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I
- 1:26Speaker 1: am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
- 1:29Speaker 1: I am joined as I am every single episode by
- 1:34Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, my compadre, my co pilot in
- 1:40Speaker 1: winning Mr Simon Hunter, my brother. Dude. We got a
- 1:47Speaker 1: lot to unpack from week five because you and I
- 1:50Speaker 1: went after each other. It is a lot of people
- 1:52Speaker 1: liked it. We had an incredible week in the contest.
- 1:56Speaker 1: We're gonna unpack it all. I've spoken to you seven
- 2:00Speaker 1: old times since last week when we were calling each
- 2:03Speaker 1: other bitches, so everyone should know that we're in a
- 2:06Speaker 1: good place. But it was dicey there, real quick chat
- 2:09Speaker 1: before l and you just knocked out your little recap
- 2:12Speaker 1: from last week of our picks, and then I'll just
- 2:14Speaker 1: give you the whole nine yards. Oh my god, you
- 2:18Speaker 1: hate scapegoating that easy, brother, You are a fucker. Are
- 2:23Speaker 1: you fucking sandbagging me right now? You dug our own hole?
- 2:27Speaker 1: Here we go, Number one the fox all we had
- 2:28Speaker 1: Seattle plus five and a half. That was That was
- 2:34Speaker 1: a fucking kicking the nuts. Simon says Ravens minus three
- 2:37Speaker 1: didn't work. Exact decision, Brown's plus three it did work.
- 2:41Speaker 1: Survivor Bills loved it. Scoot Roulette chatted Miami minus three
- 2:46Speaker 1: and a half. Simon had the Bills minus fourteen and
- 2:49Speaker 1: the big Balls Jeff plus three. We can discuss. I
- 2:53Speaker 1: know we'll get to it. In the contest, we had
- 2:57Speaker 1: Cleveland plus three and a half. It was a nail biter.
- 2:59Speaker 1: We had Seattle plus five and a half. That was
- 3:01Speaker 1: our only loss. We went four and one. Jets plus
- 3:04Speaker 1: three and a half. Fuck you. Uh, New England minus
- 3:07Speaker 1: two and a half looked great. Bears plus seven and
- 3:09Speaker 1: a half loved it. Bears played their best second half
- 3:13Speaker 1: of the season. I believe. Um. Look, we went four
- 3:17Speaker 1: in one of the contest. Uh. The point of contention
- 3:20Speaker 1: last week was Miami and the Jets, and I was
- 3:24Speaker 1: all in on Miami. Um. But because I like to
- 3:29Speaker 1: emotionally hedge, I was glad we put the Jets into
- 3:32Speaker 1: the contest at plus three and a half. You loved
- 3:34Speaker 1: Miami and then changed your mind. Um, not out of
- 3:38Speaker 1: strength in your numbers or confidence in your handicap up
- 3:42Speaker 1: because your little buddies called you and said Luke's took
- 3:44Speaker 1: the Jets. So we did, and I'm glad. What do
- 3:49Speaker 1: you want to say, um before I get into it now?
- 3:54Speaker 1: For this season and the contest, which is pretty insane
- 3:57Speaker 1: teen and seven, eighteen and seven in the contest again,
- 4:01Speaker 1: I mean, Chad, we don't dream of it and SEMy
- 4:03Speaker 1: percent this. We know we're hot, We're gonna keep riding it.
- 4:06Speaker 1: Obvious we're reading the contest well, I think what's working
- 4:09Speaker 1: for me and you and you'll agree. I lock in
- 4:10Speaker 1: our picks Wednesday, so we'll literally do this show the
- 4:13Speaker 1: lines come out, I believe Wednesday afternoon. I just put
- 4:15Speaker 1: him in. I just like, don't even I don't even
- 4:17Speaker 1: look at all my numbers, just go, what do you mean?
- 4:19Speaker 1: Chad talked about what would be like on Tuesday, Um,
- 4:23Speaker 1: make a couple of adjustments obviously switching the Jets there,
- 4:25Speaker 1: but yeah, simple simple thing where we're kind of leaving
- 4:29Speaker 1: it as is. And then it comes to Sunday and
- 4:32Speaker 1: we ran through it. I think we sat out the rams. Um.
- 4:36Speaker 1: We like talked about switching them in for Seattle. Again.
- 4:38Speaker 1: Seattle was the one we're kind of talking about. I
- 4:41Speaker 1: think with the Jets one. You kind of just I
- 4:44Speaker 1: knew in your heart of hearts you didn't like Miami
- 4:46Speaker 1: by the time Sunday came around. But you're kind of
- 4:49Speaker 1: are already in a spot where you're already in it. Um.
- 4:52Speaker 1: But as far as the contest goes, it's tough. Where
- 4:56Speaker 1: we're seven. I look and we're in the money. But
- 4:59Speaker 1: the first play this guys, whatever it is, twenty two
- 5:02Speaker 1: or twenty one wins. It's like, holy crap, man, Like
- 5:05Speaker 1: these contests are just tough where you got you're going
- 5:07Speaker 1: up against, not even professionals, it can just be Joe Schmo.
- 5:10Speaker 1: They're just hot right now. So um, yeah, as far
- 5:13Speaker 1: as contest goes this season, great, I gotta I gotta
- 5:16Speaker 1: write the Shipless. Simon says, we keep getting these numbers
- 5:19Speaker 1: and like again, when you lose a cover by one point,
- 5:22Speaker 1: it's just tough because it's just like god, these field goals,
- 5:25Speaker 1: these extra points, there's just so many weird little things
- 5:27Speaker 1: now in football. I mean, I don't know how much
- 5:29Speaker 1: we're gonna spend time on these refs, but it was
- 5:32Speaker 1: just one of those weeks with the refs. Thank god
- 5:34Speaker 1: we weren't losing tons of money on it. Because holy hell,
- 5:37Speaker 1: um the NFL again, Jack and talking real quick, we
- 5:41Speaker 1: talked about the two a thing right, how that was
- 5:43Speaker 1: gonna affect the football going forward. We saw it with
- 5:46Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewater come out of a game that he had
- 5:48Speaker 1: no concussion issues. The league tends over just it's scary, like,
- 5:53Speaker 1: if you're a player again, my quarterbacks are running quarterback
- 5:55Speaker 1: and Jalen Hurts, Matt Mitchell's running quarterbacks' running quarterback and
- 6:00Speaker 1: Josh Allen if they get up slow or if they wobble,
- 6:03Speaker 1: they're done. They're yanking him now, no matter what. So
- 6:06Speaker 1: we're definitely seeing a different shift here in football. Um,
- 6:09Speaker 1: I would love to see how your phone about a chat? Well, yeah,
- 6:12Speaker 1: it's um it's really interesting the way you saw it
- 6:19Speaker 1: with Teddy Bridgewater, Like in that game in the Miami game,
- 6:24Speaker 1: he was out immediately, like it wasn't even a conversation.
- 6:27Speaker 1: You knew he wasn't wasn't going to be coming back.
- 6:30Speaker 1: You saw it in the Tom Brady call, like it
- 6:33Speaker 1: was a similar sort of the Ray Grady Jarrett rolled
- 6:37Speaker 1: him over and Tom Brady hit the turf when he
- 6:40Speaker 1: was down. You knew they were going to call it
- 6:43Speaker 1: because he slammed him. They said, right, yeah, which was bullshit.
- 6:46Speaker 1: You saw it last night in the in the Raiders Chiefs.
- 6:49Speaker 1: He saw it with Chris Jones. I don't know what
- 6:51Speaker 1: that yeah, that was. I mean even ex football players,
- 6:55Speaker 1: all of them coming out of the woodworks being like,
- 6:58Speaker 1: we don't know what we're watching now. Again, we don't
- 7:00Speaker 1: want to make fun of the league because they're kind
- 7:01Speaker 1: of be protecting the quarterbacks here. But a strip sack
- 7:04Speaker 1: and nobody weight on the guy, I get it. It's
- 7:07Speaker 1: it's a call because he was behind him. He looked
- 7:09Speaker 1: like he was putting his body weight on him. But
- 7:10Speaker 1: that was just one of the bizarre bazaars. So here
- 7:13Speaker 1: we go with chat no well, hold on hold on
- 7:16Speaker 1: last night. Last night, Troy Aikman, like Trey Aikman. I
- 7:22Speaker 1: don't think he meant to do this, but he went
- 7:25Speaker 1: like full nineteen seventies broadcaster man. My hope is the
- 7:30Speaker 1: competition committee. He looks at this inext set of meetings
- 7:34Speaker 1: and you know, we take the dresses all. Joe Buck
- 7:38Speaker 1: obviously went over. I don't think it got a ton
- 7:40Speaker 1: of attention at least, you know, honest to God, as
- 7:42Speaker 1: you know, I go to bed at halftime like I
- 7:45Speaker 1: was done. I have no idea if people were responding
- 7:47Speaker 1: to that or not. I just thought it was really
- 7:49Speaker 1: interesting that Troy Aikman sort of chose to go the
- 7:52Speaker 1: route of take off the dresses in his commentary about
- 7:56Speaker 1: the Chris Jones roughing the pastor call I'm the big
- 8:00Speaker 1: is Troy Akman hater? So you don't want to give
- 8:01Speaker 1: me a tangent to him. I'm literally one of the people.
- 8:03Speaker 1: I'm like, people always praise this guy. What thing of
- 8:07Speaker 1: use has Troy Aikman ever said in a game that
- 8:09Speaker 1: helped you learn about the game. He goes and that
- 8:11Speaker 1: was a good pass off his back foot there. I
- 8:13Speaker 1: wouldn't recommend. That's literally Troy Aikman in a nutshell. He
- 8:15Speaker 1: just he just reads it back. So I actually watched
- 8:18Speaker 1: the games on mute. Um, so I'm the wrong guy
- 8:20Speaker 1: even know. I just read about like you the next day. So, Chad,
- 8:23Speaker 1: when it comes to the joining, I will say the
- 8:26Speaker 1: other thing I'm gonna say, Atlanta Falcons. My first bet
- 8:30Speaker 1: last week plus eight and a half came through, came
- 8:34Speaker 1: through podcast. Um ahead, Simon, I know the reasons to
- 8:39Speaker 1: stop you. Nothing else can that head? No way that
- 8:44Speaker 1: Chad loved that. Mind me, thick, I know Chad this point. Yeah,
- 8:47Speaker 1: this is your four of doing this show with him.
- 8:49Speaker 1: I knew he'd in his heart of hearts, he didn't
- 8:52Speaker 1: love it, but at that moment he was taking a
- 8:54Speaker 1: stand and it was the wrong stand, and I begged
- 8:57Speaker 1: him to get off of it, pleaded with him, even
- 8:59Speaker 1: name called because I'm just like, dude, this is so
- 9:02Speaker 1: not you, a divisional home dog. It was a great spot,
- 9:06Speaker 1: and again the people who go with well Teddy got hurt.
- 9:08Speaker 1: I didn't know Teddy played defense. I'm pretty sure the
- 9:10Speaker 1: Jets scored forty points. Okay, it was just a bad
- 9:13Speaker 1: matchup scheme wise for Miami and a bunch of different
- 9:15Speaker 1: reasons when I get calls from certain people. Again, I
- 9:18Speaker 1: can never thank Chad enough the show. The amount of
- 9:21Speaker 1: people I get to reach out to now, which is
- 9:22Speaker 1: good and bad, because I've learned some people screw with us.
- 9:25Speaker 1: They'll give me info and if I use it, they'll
- 9:27Speaker 1: get a better number. So I've learned from it. But
- 9:29Speaker 1: I also learned there's certain guys who call for certain
- 9:32Speaker 1: people that say things and you just shut up, and
- 9:35Speaker 1: you bet it. There's a reason these are three sixty guys.
- 9:38Speaker 1: There's a reason they work five days a year. Now,
- 9:40Speaker 1: they might not bet football the rest of the year, right,
- 9:42Speaker 1: that might be their one beat on football. Maybe they'll
- 9:44Speaker 1: do college, able to do baseball. But there are certain
- 9:47Speaker 1: groups that's just they're just that legit. And when you
- 9:49Speaker 1: hear these whispers, you get down on it and I
- 9:51Speaker 1: pay a fee on it, like I'm paying for that
- 9:52Speaker 1: info that's not free. Like again, no kick back from
- 9:56Speaker 1: the show. I came on the show. But the main
- 9:57Speaker 1: reason I gave it on the shows because me and
- 9:59Speaker 1: Chad were so in on Miami. If I take a
- 10:02Speaker 1: position like that, and I know people are gonna listen again,
- 10:05Speaker 1: not hyperberly. We know how many people listen to show
- 10:08Speaker 1: on the hundreds of thousands. I gotta come on here
- 10:10Speaker 1: and give it out and try to plead to people
- 10:12Speaker 1: to go the other way. Because that sucked. I didn't
- 10:15Speaker 1: like it either, having money on the Jets all week.
- 10:18Speaker 1: It was a sweat. And then when they went fourteen seventeen,
- 10:22Speaker 1: You're just like, Okay, this is why you shut up
- 10:24Speaker 1: and listen to these guys who've been doing this for
- 10:26Speaker 1: so long. So to me, I get it where Chad
- 10:29Speaker 1: was coming from but the minute he kind of dug
- 10:31Speaker 1: his feet and I go, he is fucked. He doesn't
- 10:33Speaker 1: get it because it's just chat. You know. He listens
- 10:36Speaker 1: to a couple of podcasts. I read a couple of
- 10:38Speaker 1: articles and be like, no, I know some people in Miami.
- 10:40Speaker 1: I like what they're going with, and it's like, dude,
- 10:43Speaker 1: it's it's a different world and I know that. Like that,
- 10:45Speaker 1: I'm I'm smart enough to know I'm dumb enough to
- 10:47Speaker 1: know that in my early thirties, there's just these dudes
- 10:50Speaker 1: who have been doing this for forty fifty years. They
- 10:52Speaker 1: fucking no, dude, and I don't get it chat either.
- 10:55Speaker 1: That's why I came on and pleaded. It was just
- 10:57Speaker 1: like watching the game. I was scared too, like what
- 10:59Speaker 1: was it nineteen as like I'm gonna lose this to
- 11:02Speaker 1: a backup. You're getting me back up, back up, But
- 11:05Speaker 1: you know the reason prevailed. Seventeen no sweater, that second half.
- 11:10Speaker 1: Great bet on that Jets number. You know what's funny
- 11:12Speaker 1: is you're a right and that you do know me well.
- 11:16Speaker 1: In the four years we've done this together, the number
- 11:19Speaker 1: of times I've bet on a short road favorite on
- 11:24Speaker 1: a team that isn't dominant against a team that everyone
- 11:28Speaker 1: hates on a team that ends up being the most
- 11:31Speaker 1: public bet team. I don't think I've ever done that,
- 11:34Speaker 1: but we talked about this last week. I thought there
- 11:36Speaker 1: were some really interesting things. And this is why it's
- 11:40Speaker 1: fun to unpack these games a little bit so people
- 11:43Speaker 1: can hear that how we think about them as they're
- 11:45Speaker 1: making their own betting decisions. I don't know why I
- 11:48Speaker 1: felt compelled to dig in on Miami. I don't know
- 11:53Speaker 1: if it was a bias against the Jets and thinking
- 11:55Speaker 1: that they're just an incompetent franchise and seeing what you know,
- 11:59Speaker 1: see what I've seen in Zack Wilson. I don't know
- 12:01Speaker 1: if it was a bias in favor of Teddy Bridgewaters, right,
- 12:05Speaker 1: I feel like that. But it was that game, And
- 12:08Speaker 1: also we had a long conversation about this, the Jaguars
- 12:11Speaker 1: in the Texans. We knew the Texans were the right side.
- 12:14Speaker 1: We couldn't put them in our contest because we have
- 12:17Speaker 1: had a bias on the Jaguars all season and so
- 12:20Speaker 1: even though it definitely should have been a Texans game
- 12:24Speaker 1: and we should remember the Bears, right, we said it
- 12:27Speaker 1: was remember the Bears were like, we're taking one of
- 12:28Speaker 1: these seven and a halfs in this divisional game, and
- 12:30Speaker 1: the Bears we're not gonna go. But you're you're right.
- 12:35Speaker 1: It was so out of character for me to go
- 12:39Speaker 1: on Miami, be comfortable with Miami, and dig my heels in. Meanwhile,
- 12:43Speaker 1: the other game the Cardinals plus six, which like I
- 12:46Speaker 1: texted you Sunday night and said, it's going to be
- 12:49Speaker 1: so hard to not want to get the Cardinals. And
- 12:52Speaker 1: we avoided that one. And that was a joke too.
- 12:54Speaker 1: I texted a buddy, It's like, you can see again,
- 12:56Speaker 1: I'm a professional. I think a lot of these people
- 12:59Speaker 1: on Twitter a frau, but you can just tell it.
- 13:01Speaker 1: I'm still an amateur professional, where like that Eagles game
- 13:04Speaker 1: was a sweat that Jets game that second half that
- 13:06Speaker 1: was a no doubt or it's just like that's my
- 13:08Speaker 1: goal to get to those guys level, where that Eagles
- 13:11Speaker 1: one felt so good at fourteen nothing and all of
- 13:13Speaker 1: a sudden at first half it was seven, fourteen seven
- 13:17Speaker 1: and the Cardinals were driving down to the one yard line,
- 13:19Speaker 1: two yard line. It's like never easy, but look, we
- 13:22Speaker 1: sweated out the first half. We got it at minus
- 13:24Speaker 1: three and a half and now all of a sudden, Uh,
- 13:30Speaker 1: it's week six, one third into the season. We're one
- 13:34Speaker 1: third of a way. I'm so I'm like, I'm depressed
- 13:38Speaker 1: about it. Well, I love it one third. If you
- 13:40Speaker 1: told me a week one, maybe one third in hit
- 13:43Speaker 1: rate on the contest, I'd be like, all right, I'm
- 13:45Speaker 1: depressed at how quickly it's going. It's just making me
- 13:48Speaker 1: so upset, Like, are you fucking kidding me? Five months
- 13:51Speaker 1: makes you feel better? We have five months left of
- 13:53Speaker 1: the middle of October. Like, I just love it so much.
- 13:58Speaker 1: I just I love it more than I for half.
- 14:00Speaker 1: I'm so jazzed about it every Sunday. It's like a drug.
- 14:04Speaker 1: All right. First game up Chicago Bears. I was really
- 14:09Speaker 1: encouraged by the second half of that game. The Bears
- 14:11Speaker 1: had every reason to pack it in justin Jefferson was
- 14:15Speaker 1: torching them. Kirk Cousins started out I think sixteen of
- 14:19Speaker 1: sixteen or fourteen and fourteen. The second half of the
- 14:24Speaker 1: second half. This year in games, the Bears have been outstanding,
- 14:29Speaker 1: and they proved it again this past week. This game
- 14:32Speaker 1: opened it one. I bet the Bears at minus one.
- 14:35Speaker 1: It's bounced around, it went went to Bears plus one.
- 14:38Speaker 1: Now with Bears, you know, minus a half Thursday Night
- 14:41Speaker 1: short home favorite Simon, I don't know how we're not
- 14:45Speaker 1: all in on the Bears here, damn it, just because
- 14:47Speaker 1: the Commanders keep sucking me in. Ill. Thank god I
- 14:50Speaker 1: was on Tennessee last week because I just I just
- 14:52Speaker 1: could not get behind it with the Commanders. I don't
- 14:55Speaker 1: get how they don't bench Carson and how they don't
- 14:57Speaker 1: get rid of rivera riveras this week. It's like, what's
- 15:01Speaker 1: the difference between you and other teams? He goes quarterback
- 15:03Speaker 1: and he's in a division with Daniel Jones and Cooper
- 15:06Speaker 1: Rush that are playing quarterback right now, Like that's just
- 15:08Speaker 1: a bullshit excuse. Uh so to me burn it all down.
- 15:13Speaker 1: I just even though I know all the pros will
- 15:15Speaker 1: be on the Commanders like this, they're the better team,
- 15:18Speaker 1: they have more talent, everything like that. No, no way,
- 15:21Speaker 1: no way will I do it. So, no way, I'll
- 15:23Speaker 1: let Chat talk me to take embarrass Thursday night. But
- 15:26Speaker 1: I'll better with him. But yeah, not not going to
- 15:28Speaker 1: be one of my five best bets this week that much.
- 15:31Speaker 1: It's look the Thursday night games, the home team has
- 15:36Speaker 1: been covering and and and and now I'm basically getting
- 15:41Speaker 1: the home team as a pick. Honestly, I'm thinking about
- 15:43Speaker 1: that more than I'm thinking about the Bears individually. But
- 15:49Speaker 1: I am really encouraged by how this team plays in
- 15:52Speaker 1: the second half. They look like they believe. They know
- 15:55Speaker 1: they're a good running team, they know they're a good
- 15:57Speaker 1: defensive team. Uh. I think they look like they believe
- 16:01Speaker 1: in Matt ebra Flus. Uh. This is the week I
- 16:06Speaker 1: get my heartbroken. Yeah, I mean loosely using good defensive
- 16:10Speaker 1: team there, Jeff, Okay, they got they got they got
- 16:15Speaker 1: guys in spots like you got good young talent for Again,
- 16:18Speaker 1: we talked about coming to the season, you've got you
- 16:19Speaker 1: had no draft picks, and somehow you hit on undrafted
- 16:22Speaker 1: guys in the fifth round pick. Like that's how you
- 16:24Speaker 1: build out good teams. So I'm with the Bears future.
- 16:28Speaker 1: You have something to look forward to. But um Man,
- 16:32Speaker 1: justin Fields, get gotta got this guy some help, like
- 16:34Speaker 1: we see his offut. That's all I'm gonna say about
- 16:37Speaker 1: the Bears like that right now, they're failing him as
- 16:39Speaker 1: an organization. They have to get him some talent. I
- 16:42Speaker 1: think that's a great way of saying it, they are
- 16:44Speaker 1: failing him as an organization that is a hundred true um. Alright, So,
- 16:51Speaker 1: like I said, Bears right now minus one at Vanduel.
- 16:55Speaker 1: Next game on the board, we're talking about our favorite team,
- 16:59Speaker 1: the jack Sinflo Jaguars on the road as it looks
- 17:03Speaker 1: like two and a half point underdogs to the dreadful
- 17:07Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts. No classic weight for the three and weak pounds, Like,
- 17:13Speaker 1: I'm just waiting for that three. Give me that three
- 17:15Speaker 1: sports books, I mean, they must know that gonna get
- 17:18Speaker 1: it for You're definitely gonna get it, Like of the
- 17:21Speaker 1: money right now and of the tickets are on the Colts,
- 17:25Speaker 1: So we're gonna get at plus three on the Jacks.
- 17:27Speaker 1: I'm hoping, because again people I get they jump bout
- 17:30Speaker 1: on a Jacks team that I don't know why they
- 17:33Speaker 1: just cannot beat Houston. It's been the most bizarre thing.
- 17:36Speaker 1: The last three times they've been favorite, it's all been
- 17:38Speaker 1: against Houston, and they just keep losing to Houston. So
- 17:41Speaker 1: it's just funny they keep becoming favorites when they play Houston,
- 17:44Speaker 1: they lose to Houston. Houston just for some reason, has
- 17:47Speaker 1: their number. The Jaguars have the Colts number, So we're
- 17:50Speaker 1: gonna plus three on a Jacks team that people are
- 17:52Speaker 1: down on. I just don't think they're as bad as
- 17:53Speaker 1: they've looked. A Colts team that's not as good as
- 17:56Speaker 1: their record state. It's like to two on one is
- 17:59Speaker 1: it's bizarre. Like a buddy said to me, that's the
- 18:01Speaker 1: difference between Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz. Right, Carson, he
- 18:05Speaker 1: loses games where Matt Ryan could be absolutely trash and
- 18:08Speaker 1: somehow still put his team in the winning position. Um No,
- 18:13Speaker 1: my biggest fears. I have no read on this Colts team, Like,
- 18:15Speaker 1: I just don't. I don't know how they keep doing it,
- 18:18Speaker 1: but they keep doing it somehow. Um but getting them
- 18:22Speaker 1: as a favorite differently getting them as a dog so
- 18:24Speaker 1: to me, and in the a f C South that
- 18:26Speaker 1: we really don't know what these teams are. I feel
- 18:28Speaker 1: comfortable taking a dog here where I do think the
- 18:30Speaker 1: Jaguars are just better than they've shown these last two weeks.
- 18:33Speaker 1: Like that Eagles game was a slop fest, and that
- 18:35Speaker 1: was a six six game, and into the fourth quarter
- 18:37Speaker 1: in the Texas put a touchdown up and just again
- 18:39Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence looked lost last week. I just think he
- 18:41Speaker 1: bounces back in this position. So um yeah, plus three
- 18:45Speaker 1: I would take it, but at two and a half
- 18:46Speaker 1: I probably wouldn't. You can't get a read on this
- 18:48Speaker 1: team because they are the quintessential uh A f C
- 18:52Speaker 1: slash NFC South team, nameless, faith, faceless, nondescript. Can't to
- 19:00Speaker 1: find what their character is in a city that no
- 19:03Speaker 1: one thinks about pretty much. And I say this as
- 19:07Speaker 1: a guy who went to Indiana University and loved it.
- 19:11Speaker 1: Just the truth, That's exactly what it is, all right.
- 19:15Speaker 1: The New York Jets, the resurgents, New York Jets on
- 19:19Speaker 1: the road at the Green Bay Packers at Fandel right now,
- 19:22Speaker 1: the Packers are seven point favorites. You gotta pay a
- 19:25Speaker 1: little juice if you want to get the seven, which
- 19:27Speaker 1: means that the money is coming in. You're probably gonna
- 19:31Speaker 1: have to. You might be able to get a seven
- 19:33Speaker 1: and a half, or it might be six and a half.
- 19:35Speaker 1: Who knows, who knows what's gonna happen. Mighty's coming in
- 19:37Speaker 1: on the Jets. Tickets are coming in on the Jets.
- 19:40Speaker 1: Everyone loves the Jets right now. Oh my god, I'm
- 19:44Speaker 1: just gonna wait see how well those number goes and
- 19:46Speaker 1: play the Packers. Yeah. Again, I don't know what to
- 19:50Speaker 1: do with this though, because I think the Packers might
- 19:53Speaker 1: actually suck, Like the Giants had their top three receivers
- 19:57Speaker 1: were out, Barkley was banged up semi Daniel Jones is
- 20:00Speaker 1: playing with a broken ankle and a bleeding hand, and
- 20:03Speaker 1: they beat the ship out of him in that second half.
- 20:05Speaker 1: I mean, I guess, I guess you get chocolate up
- 20:06Speaker 1: to England woes, but I did it last week. Like
- 20:09Speaker 1: I'm just I like fading these teams coming back from England.
- 20:12Speaker 1: They don't take the bye. Seven and a half was
- 20:15Speaker 1: a great number for this Jets team. It sucked that
- 20:17Speaker 1: people betted down so quick. That was a nice number
- 20:19Speaker 1: to take them at. I'm with Chad though, it's like,
- 20:22Speaker 1: literally we're buying at the peak. You could say the Jets.
- 20:26Speaker 1: But I just don't think the books are realizing how
- 20:28Speaker 1: bad this Screen Bay team is. And maybe I'll be
- 20:30Speaker 1: eating my words next week. But I saw a Patriots
- 20:33Speaker 1: team go on the road with a rookie quarterback who
- 20:36Speaker 1: didn't have any touches, and he took it to this
- 20:38Speaker 1: Packers team and they were in that game. Right, even
- 20:41Speaker 1: you take away the picks the picks six. They lose
- 20:43Speaker 1: by seven in that game. I think the Jets are
- 20:45Speaker 1: better position than that Patriots team was, So I don't know.
- 20:49Speaker 1: It's like one of these games it's gonna make me
- 20:51Speaker 1: question all week. And I bet the seven a half
- 20:53Speaker 1: when it opened, but not for a lot, right the
- 20:55Speaker 1: books weren't taking a lot on that number. But I
- 20:58Speaker 1: just instantly thought to myself, I just are we what do?
- 21:01Speaker 1: What do? How do? How do Green Bay score? I
- 21:03Speaker 1: don't really get this team at all. Like again, you
- 21:05Speaker 1: can look at the wide receivers and blame them. I
- 21:08Speaker 1: think it's on Rogers and the floor. Like it's just
- 21:10Speaker 1: I don't like what's going on in Green Bay right now.
- 21:12Speaker 1: So I would grab the seven, but I kind of
- 21:15Speaker 1: I kind of get where Chad's coming from. Where it's like,
- 21:17Speaker 1: isn't this where we sell the Jets too straight? Wins? Um,
- 21:21Speaker 1: It's kind of where you want to get off. But
- 21:23Speaker 1: I'm fine accepting that was wrong about this Jets team, Like, yeah,
- 21:25Speaker 1: they've still in a couple of games here, the record
- 21:28Speaker 1: is better than it should be, but there's just something
- 21:31Speaker 1: about this Green Bay team. Their defense is showing me
- 21:33Speaker 1: nothing and that deserves any type of respect. Their offense,
- 21:37Speaker 1: they are clearly missing that third down present of Davante Adams.
- 21:40Speaker 1: On third down they're throwing to freaking Randall Cob who's
- 21:42Speaker 1: a corpse. So just scary times right now for green Back. Well,
- 21:47Speaker 1: look we still uh oh people a foxhol Simon says
- 21:53Speaker 1: an exact decision. We don't have any games through the
- 21:56Speaker 1: first few that we like. Uh as consideration for our
- 22:00Speaker 1: final five, we don't have to make this, you know
- 22:03Speaker 1: part of that conversation. There will be other options. Uh. Yeah.
- 22:07Speaker 1: If in our contest they are seven and a half,
- 22:11Speaker 1: feel like I'm gonna be able to talk into the
- 22:12Speaker 1: Jets just because I don't know. Green Bay just feel
- 22:16Speaker 1: a little overrated right now because people are still bake
- 22:19Speaker 1: betting off what they were these last couple of years
- 22:21Speaker 1: with Davatte Adams, and clearly that is an issue for
- 22:23Speaker 1: this team on third down. All right. Uh. Speaking of
- 22:27Speaker 1: the New York Football Giants, they are relatively big underdog
- 22:32Speaker 1: at home this week plus five. Here's my initial take
- 22:36Speaker 1: on this. The Giants are winning in spite of themselves.
- 22:43Speaker 1: The Ravens are consistently losing or close to losing in
- 22:49Speaker 1: spite of themselves. So are you going to get the
- 22:53Speaker 1: worst of a very good team or the best of
- 22:57Speaker 1: a not so talented team. Where does the advance the July? Yeah,
- 23:01Speaker 1: it feels like this, remember is impossible in any cap
- 23:04Speaker 1: Like every five of my body screams take the Ravens.
- 23:08Speaker 1: But the Giants just smile and they just want me
- 23:10Speaker 1: to do it. They're gonna go ahead, keep doubting us
- 23:12Speaker 1: and will be four and one. Makes zero sense. I
- 23:15Speaker 1: can't get over that they're good again. We live in
- 23:18Speaker 1: an area where a lot of the guys, especially guys
- 23:20Speaker 1: used to work with on the Jersey Shore Show. Giants
- 23:23Speaker 1: fans are coming out of the woodworks them in the
- 23:24Speaker 1: Jets fans. It's always a fun time when New York
- 23:26Speaker 1: is actually has good or I should send New Jersey
- 23:29Speaker 1: has good football teams. Uh, I don't know. I don't
- 23:33Speaker 1: know what to make of this Giants team. Like I know,
- 23:36Speaker 1: head coach is important, and they take on the identity
- 23:38Speaker 1: of their head coach, but it's all so bizarre. Daniel Jones,
- 23:44Speaker 1: I don't get it. I don't get any of it.
- 23:46Speaker 1: I can't even try to break it down where Yeah,
- 23:48Speaker 1: my model the value is on the Ravens, like I
- 23:51Speaker 1: got this number of six. I like the Ravens this position,
- 23:54Speaker 1: but I feel like Chad just nailed it. Like the
- 23:56Speaker 1: Ravens can't that they're not beating these teams up like
- 23:59Speaker 1: they have been in these past couple of years. Like
- 24:02Speaker 1: you know, we could get those random point wins by
- 24:05Speaker 1: the Ravens. We're just not getting it. Either their offense
- 24:08Speaker 1: doesn't have it, or their defense doesn't have it, or
- 24:10Speaker 1: it's just a very up and down team that's just
- 24:12Speaker 1: been playing teams close. So I get. I mean, we
- 24:15Speaker 1: could pass on it for right now. Maybe my opinion
- 24:17Speaker 1: will change, Like I just I feel like a coward
- 24:19Speaker 1: being scared of the Giants, but I just either would
- 24:22Speaker 1: take the Ravens try, I wouldn't take anything at all.
- 24:24Speaker 1: We move on. Yeah, Bengals two point favorites on the
- 24:29Speaker 1: road at the Saints. The line has moved up, the
- 24:33Speaker 1: Bengals getting everything, all the money, all the tickets. Look,
- 24:37Speaker 1: foxhold chat, we're going with the Saints, right and of
- 24:40Speaker 1: course you know me, All right, let's climbe down into
- 24:46Speaker 1: the foxhole because the Saints are the side here, Like,
- 24:51Speaker 1: of course you take the Saints. No one's gonna want
- 24:53Speaker 1: to let's listen to the show, like if this, if
- 24:55Speaker 1: I could have made it our big ball as I
- 24:56Speaker 1: would have because it's Tuesday, Foxhole jump on in Going
- 25:00Speaker 1: to the Foxhol New Orleans Saints plus two no brainer.
- 25:03Speaker 1: As soon as this line came out, I knew I
- 25:05Speaker 1: was gonna be on it. I have a Bengals team
- 25:08Speaker 1: that we've seen what they are right there, exactly what
- 25:10Speaker 1: they were last year. They played gross ugly closed games.
- 25:14Speaker 1: But the biggest weakness on that team is the coaching.
- 25:17Speaker 1: And I'm looking at the Saints team. They actually look
- 25:20Speaker 1: like they know exactly what they want to be now.
- 25:22Speaker 1: They kind of have a rhythm going here. They need
- 25:24Speaker 1: Dalton bringing in Taysom Hill. It's a wacky offense, and
- 25:28Speaker 1: Comar is back to which and he didn't make too
- 25:30Speaker 1: many plays last year. We saw the defensive counting for
- 25:32Speaker 1: him and leaving lanes open for a Hill to hit.
- 25:34Speaker 1: So I just like the Saints team, and I like
- 25:37Speaker 1: their defense in this matchup as well. I think they
- 25:39Speaker 1: do match up well against them where Seattle kind of
- 25:43Speaker 1: end the vikings they both were. I know it's crazy
- 25:45Speaker 1: to say Gino Smith's a high flying pass an offense
- 25:47Speaker 1: right now. But he kind of is. I look at
- 25:50Speaker 1: this Bengals team that they've taken a step back. They
- 25:52Speaker 1: just don't They're not getting the balls downfield. I just
- 25:55Speaker 1: don't see the Bengals adjusting well to how the defense
- 25:58Speaker 1: are playing Burrow. Um, we've seen Chase struggling as well
- 26:02Speaker 1: this year. To the public is gonna be all over this,
- 26:05Speaker 1: this number of shoes are opened. I was, I'll just wait,
- 26:08Speaker 1: hopefully get a three. It's gone the way I've hoped.
- 26:11Speaker 1: The public is just betting in the book will keep
- 26:12Speaker 1: moving it because pros are gonna keep waiting. Um, no,
- 26:16Speaker 1: no brainer. Pick uh. It was one of those two
- 26:21Speaker 1: I sees. I saw. I thought you're gonna make your executive.
- 26:23Speaker 1: That's why I jumped on it as a Fox sol.
- 26:24Speaker 1: I just thought we had to get it in, had
- 26:26Speaker 1: to get in that. Let Chad steal it. Oh No,
- 26:29Speaker 1: I've got one in mind for the executive. Probably both
- 26:32Speaker 1: gonna be all the same one though. Uh well, listen,
- 26:34Speaker 1: I won the exact decision last week, and so m
- 26:38Speaker 1: I said that Browns would have been. Simon says, if
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- 28:33Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. Alright, so we both agree
- 28:37Speaker 1: on the Saints tally ho the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, man,
- 28:42Speaker 1: they looked like they were gonna steam roll then now
- 28:46Speaker 1: five and oh against the spread Atlanta Falcons, who I'm
- 28:49Speaker 1: truly falling in love with. Instead, they led him back
- 28:51Speaker 1: in the game. Arthur Smith made the really interesting call.
- 28:55Speaker 1: They were down, and he went for two May fifteen.
- 28:59Speaker 1: We all know what happened in that game. They still
- 29:01Speaker 1: covered the Buccaneers around the road. At the Steelers. The
- 29:05Speaker 1: Bucks are about eight and a half point favorites. Look,
- 29:09Speaker 1: who wants to bet the Steelers at this point? But
- 29:12Speaker 1: the numbers will tell you this is when you make
- 29:16Speaker 1: the play on the big home dog there eight and
- 29:19Speaker 1: a half Right now, I don't know what to do.
- 29:21Speaker 1: Maybe I'll just bet the under. I should be all over.
- 29:24Speaker 1: The Steelers share a big home dog like Kenny Pickett
- 29:27Speaker 1: against this Buck's defense, I don't see where the points
- 29:30Speaker 1: come from. I just don't see where they come from.
- 29:33Speaker 1: And that's my biggest issue here. It's like, Bills are good,
- 29:35Speaker 1: Bills defense are good? Are they as good as the Bucks?
- 29:38Speaker 1: I don't know? Like the Bucks might be even better.
- 29:40Speaker 1: So I I want to take Kenny and this Pittsburgh team.
- 29:45Speaker 1: I think that is a big number of Brady. They
- 29:47Speaker 1: let them back door them like Atlanta. They were dead
- 29:50Speaker 1: and what was the twenty one? Nothing like you were
- 29:52Speaker 1: saying that game was over, um And they came all
- 29:55Speaker 1: the way back and they had a chance of winning
- 29:56Speaker 1: that game without one bad blown call because Bucks defense
- 29:59Speaker 1: did looked hired and that Florida Sun. This is different though,
- 30:03Speaker 1: this is up in Pittsburgh. I mean, am I about
- 30:06Speaker 1: to bet Brady is about to go over four against
- 30:09Speaker 1: the spread. I don't know what to do. It's just
- 30:12Speaker 1: it's so tough. The more we talk about it, it
- 30:17Speaker 1: feels like we shop in the bucks. Right. No, the
- 30:19Speaker 1: more it feels like a no brainer to bet the
- 30:21Speaker 1: Steamers because we're talking about we're talking about a team
- 30:25Speaker 1: that just got blown out. I bet if we called
- 30:28Speaker 1: Evan Abrams right now and said, give me the historical
- 30:32Speaker 1: numbers on teams in a blowout loss who were more
- 30:35Speaker 1: than a touchdown touchdown underdog in the following game, I
- 30:39Speaker 1: guarantee it's like nine. So you probably have the history
- 30:45Speaker 1: you're gonna have. It's a good number two like I
- 30:48Speaker 1: have the public eight and a half. You're gonna have
- 30:50Speaker 1: a huge home underdog, and you're gonna have a team
- 30:54Speaker 1: that no one thinks can do anything because they've only
- 30:57Speaker 1: seen the quarterback play one game and all he did
- 31:00Speaker 1: Will scored three points. I worry about Matt Canada as
- 31:03Speaker 1: an offensive coordinator. There is nothing going on with that
- 31:05Speaker 1: offense for the second year in a row. But the
- 31:08Speaker 1: Steelers on the side here, they just are, yeah, not
- 31:12Speaker 1: showing as anything to make us think they can close
- 31:14Speaker 1: games out right, So like again, Chat, everything you said
- 31:18Speaker 1: so true, So I'll probably end up one. I just
- 31:19Speaker 1: as we sit here on Tuesday, it's it's just so
- 31:22Speaker 1: sick and growth. I just can't pull myself to do it.
- 31:24Speaker 1: But again, you know, I'm sure, I'm sure Chad's gonna
- 31:27Speaker 1: break because this is this is literally right up my alley,
- 31:29Speaker 1: like I always love these ugly dogs. This is of
- 31:32Speaker 1: course we're supposed to be betting this game, and I
- 31:34Speaker 1: guarantee come Thursday, little Preview, this will be a big
- 31:38Speaker 1: boss Believe this will be a big There's no other
- 31:45Speaker 1: game on the board that can be a big boss
- 31:46Speaker 1: o this one. Meanwhile, the Niners go on the road
- 31:50Speaker 1: and they're five and a half point favorites on the
- 31:52Speaker 1: road at the Falcons. It's appros Joe's game on the
- 31:58Speaker 1: Niners of the tickets six sending money on the Falcons.
- 32:02Speaker 1: The only thing that's keeping me from pulling the trigger
- 32:03Speaker 1: on the Falcons right now, and this is stupid, is
- 32:06Speaker 1: the fear of aggression because they haven't lost against the
- 32:10Speaker 1: spread this year. But I think this, this game matches
- 32:13Speaker 1: up perfectly for them. Simon says, do it, go go
- 32:21Speaker 1: grab Atlanta right now. Hopefully you can get that plus six. Um,
- 32:24Speaker 1: I see it's still there at some a couple of books.
- 32:26Speaker 1: They're probably gonna be stuck with the five, five and
- 32:28Speaker 1: a half. It's just a no brainer. Players are banged up,
- 32:32Speaker 1: they got a lot of injuries. They're not playing the
- 32:34Speaker 1: corpse of Carolina like they did last week. That team
- 32:37Speaker 1: literally just got rid of the quarterback and their coach
- 32:39Speaker 1: in a day. Yeah, Baker's hurt. I'm sure he's hurt.
- 32:42Speaker 1: Get out of here. They just that was classic great
- 32:47Speaker 1: spot to take the four niners. We we we wanted
- 32:49Speaker 1: to take it to but we just couldn't pull ourselves
- 32:51Speaker 1: to do it. Um. Great defense. Now Nick bos is injured,
- 32:56Speaker 1: they got injuries, injuries on their offensive line. You're playing
- 32:59Speaker 1: in a landed team that is just in these games,
- 33:02Speaker 1: and you're the fact that they're a home dog against Shanahan.
- 33:05Speaker 1: Shanahan is a favorite on the road. Again, I can't
- 33:08Speaker 1: see what Evan puts out for trends. That is not
- 33:10Speaker 1: a trend that's ever been good for Kyle Shanahan. So
- 33:14Speaker 1: I'm I'm just looking at just again, I throw it
- 33:17Speaker 1: out the five and oh a t s. I'm just
- 33:18Speaker 1: going week by week here it's a nice spot to
- 33:21Speaker 1: take Atlanta. I betted down to three and a half,
- 33:23Speaker 1: betted down to four, and I do think I'll get
- 33:25Speaker 1: down there. I think other pros are just gonna be
- 33:27Speaker 1: on this Atlanta team, like they can move the ball.
- 33:30Speaker 1: Like Mariota not an amazing quarterback. I'd be pissed if
- 33:34Speaker 1: he was my quarterback, but he is good. He's like
- 33:38Speaker 1: he just moves the ball. And it's crazy against that
- 33:40Speaker 1: Bucks team, he kept having these big throws on third
- 33:43Speaker 1: down and it's like that's a veteran quarterback who's been around,
- 33:46Speaker 1: stands in the pocket, takes hits. We we love Atlanta.
- 33:50Speaker 1: Like the fact that I haven't been on them every week,
- 33:52Speaker 1: I'm killing me. It's like they're five and oh I
- 33:53Speaker 1: should been on them every week. I'm not missing this week.
- 33:56Speaker 1: It's such a good spot against as team on back
- 34:00Speaker 1: the back East Coast road game again Atlanta hoping at
- 34:04Speaker 1: the six, but five and a halfs five. It's exactly
- 34:07Speaker 1: the play. In fact, this will be the first entry
- 34:10Speaker 1: that I feel great about in our phase five. Yeah again,
- 34:14Speaker 1: this this in the Saints when I knew right away
- 34:16Speaker 1: met Chad, we're gonna have a contested just both both games.
- 34:19Speaker 1: We just perfectly line us up with home dogs and
- 34:21Speaker 1: great spots. I should have put this. I should have
- 34:24Speaker 1: said I had the Saints in the phase five to
- 34:27Speaker 1: the next game, the Patriots on the road at the Browns.
- 34:33Speaker 1: This game open to two and a half. Chad Milman
- 34:37Speaker 1: what he likes to do on Sunday nights. I'll open
- 34:41Speaker 1: the Action Network app. I'll start looking at lines. I
- 34:46Speaker 1: tried it to be too aggressive like the Falcons I loved,
- 34:48Speaker 1: but I had second thoughts because I was worried about
- 34:52Speaker 1: regression until Simon talked to me out of it. This
- 34:54Speaker 1: second I mentioned I love the Bears. Chad Melman is
- 34:58Speaker 1: going to call an exact decision on the Browns. They
- 35:02Speaker 1: are three point favorites at home against the Patriots. Chad
- 35:06Speaker 1: Molman got them at two and a half on Sunday
- 35:08Speaker 1: night because he was looking at the Action Network gap.
- 35:10Speaker 1: He saw that the line the juice was at minus.
- 35:13Speaker 1: He knew would be moving soon. He got the two
- 35:15Speaker 1: and a half. The rest of you, I would still
- 35:18Speaker 1: take the three exact decision, the choice between the unthinkable
- 35:23Speaker 1: and the impossible. Are you happy? Executive decision? Exact decision?
- 35:32Speaker 1: Go with the Brownies. The Brownies did it for me
- 35:34Speaker 1: last week against the Chargers. I'm gonna do it for
- 35:36Speaker 1: me this week against the Patriots. Right now betting tickets
- 35:40Speaker 1: on the Patriots. Money the Pros are on the Browns.
- 35:44Speaker 1: Give it to me. M so happy. Another week you
- 35:49Speaker 1: get to hear about chagging the best of the number.
- 35:51Speaker 1: What a fun segment this always is. Uh yeah, dad,
- 35:57Speaker 1: It's like again, just a bet on one of ache.
- 36:00Speaker 1: But the minute the number comes out, I'm gonna have
- 36:02Speaker 1: to make it. They should have won last week the Browns.
- 36:04Speaker 1: They're kicker and missed what two field goals? Chargers are
- 36:07Speaker 1: begging to give that game away. God, this Cleveland team,
- 36:11Speaker 1: they're they're heartbreakers. Man. That's the biggest fear of taking
- 36:14Speaker 1: this number, because we like it better when they're dogs.
- 36:16Speaker 1: We don't like taking them as favorites. But a rookie
- 36:19Speaker 1: quarterback off a dominating win at home, going on the road,
- 36:24Speaker 1: play Cleveland team that needs this win now, they need
- 36:26Speaker 1: this Patriots. I'm excited for them right their Their offense
- 36:30Speaker 1: looks like they're figuring out here. The defense is too.
- 36:32Speaker 1: This is just a good spot take the Browns. I
- 36:34Speaker 1: would honestly take up three and a half. Take up
- 36:36Speaker 1: the four. A good team against a team in New
- 36:38Speaker 1: England that they're not as good as the people think
- 36:41Speaker 1: they are right now, right who they beat? And they
- 36:43Speaker 1: beat Pittsburgh and they just beat Detroit and Detroit's first
- 36:45Speaker 1: outdoor game of the season. I'm shocked the public loves
- 36:50Speaker 1: the Patriots so much, just because again it's a rookie
- 36:52Speaker 1: on the road. But I know our guy, Matt Mitchell
- 36:55Speaker 1: loves this quarterback, Dailey Zappy. It maybe it's just a
- 37:00Speaker 1: carryover from the generate. It's all at bet him in
- 37:02Speaker 1: college or not just bend them in the pros. But
- 37:05Speaker 1: interesting that so many people are on a rookie on
- 37:07Speaker 1: the road against a big Brown's team right there. They've
- 37:10Speaker 1: been better than I thought they would be coming into
- 37:11Speaker 1: this year. Here's what I think. You live in an
- 37:14Speaker 1: insular world of professionals. I'm more connected and have a
- 37:18Speaker 1: better sense of the populace populous in general. It's my
- 37:22Speaker 1: it's my gift, right, I can do populist content. That's
- 37:26Speaker 1: how I've turned gambling into something that like nobody pays
- 37:29Speaker 1: attention to, into a worldwide business. A Bailey's Appy is
- 37:33Speaker 1: the quarterback you're referring to Yes, Bailey's Appy. Bailey's Appy
- 37:37Speaker 1: played great against the Packers, like you mentioned, in a
- 37:39Speaker 1: big game that was like the game of the week.
- 37:42Speaker 1: And then they go out and beat the Lions, who
- 37:44Speaker 1: everyone sort of felt might be kind of good and
- 37:46Speaker 1: had a high scoring offense and they shut them out.
- 37:49Speaker 1: So now everyone's thinking, Oh, the Patriots are figuring it out.
- 37:52Speaker 1: They might not be bad. The Browns are just a
- 37:54Speaker 1: good team. Like and I'm going to continue to believe
- 37:56Speaker 1: that they're getting some bad breaks and some weird calls,
- 37:59Speaker 1: but this is a good team and there's no way
- 38:01Speaker 1: they should never not be taken if they are short
- 38:04Speaker 1: home underdogs or short home favorites, and there's no way
- 38:08Speaker 1: they should be three points against the Patriots should be higher. Yeah,
- 38:13Speaker 1: and again we're gonna probably have this one in our contest.
- 38:15Speaker 1: And it sucks knowing that we might be stepping in
- 38:17Speaker 1: front of a train that is in New England. Patriots
- 38:19Speaker 1: on a hot roll, but the numbers just don't back
- 38:22Speaker 1: that up. It's like, yeah, they could be things outside
- 38:24Speaker 1: the numbers you don't see coming with this Patriots team,
- 38:27Speaker 1: But just just on paper, this is a good spot.
- 38:29Speaker 1: Take the Brows Billy Zappies Sounds Hounds out Minnesota Vikings
- 38:38Speaker 1: on the road at the Miami Dolphins. Dolphins three point
- 38:44Speaker 1: underdogs at home. Interesting, Yeah, I mean, what the hell
- 38:49Speaker 1: am I supposed to do here? Every fiber my body says,
- 38:52Speaker 1: you take Miami. You don't even think, you just blindly
- 38:54Speaker 1: bet it. So I guess that's what I'm gonna do.
- 38:56Speaker 1: But I don't know. Teddy Bridgewater has not in all
- 39:00Speaker 1: at anything in me. That's like, Okay, I can trust
- 39:03Speaker 1: this guy. I've seen him go out of games like
- 39:05Speaker 1: that before. He takes little hits, little nicks and he
- 39:08Speaker 1: backs out of games. And now I have money on
- 39:10Speaker 1: the third string quarterback of Miami. Kind Of scary, but yeah,
- 39:15Speaker 1: be honest, but love love this matchup for them against
- 39:19Speaker 1: the Vikings defense. That's suspect. We just saw Chicago move
- 39:23Speaker 1: the ball pretty easily against this Viking secondary. Now you're
- 39:28Speaker 1: taking them a throw into the hot Florida sun. Come on, now, me,
- 39:33Speaker 1: me and chat On back would be on Miami. But
- 39:35Speaker 1: wait and see grab the three if you want for small,
- 39:38Speaker 1: Let's wait and see him. Make sure we definitely are
- 39:40Speaker 1: getting Teddy everything I've read, He's past all concussion tests,
- 39:43Speaker 1: but they've updated their rules. You have to get cleared
- 39:45Speaker 1: from a doctor that's outside the team, that's working for
- 39:48Speaker 1: the NFL. UM. It's just as you sit here on two.
- 39:52Speaker 1: I don't know if it's definitely gonna be teddy, but
- 39:53Speaker 1: love the number, so I'll just grab it or small
- 39:55Speaker 1: right now, grab the three. Um the one thing I'll say,
- 39:59Speaker 1: you know you said a couple of times it's a
- 40:02Speaker 1: defense that gave up forty points. But this game, I
- 40:06Speaker 1: think it was into the third, maybe even into the fourth.
- 40:10Speaker 1: I can't remember the exact timing. It was nineteen seventeen.
- 40:13Speaker 1: The Dolphins are moving the ball with Skylar Thompson from Independence, Missouri,
- 40:17Speaker 1: where the buck stops with him, and I mean that literally,
- 40:21Speaker 1: my bucks stopped with Skyler Thompson. It's Harry Truman reference
- 40:25Speaker 1: for are you fletch fans? The Jets are a fourth
- 40:28Speaker 1: quarter team, so I w was just never worked because
- 40:30Speaker 1: the Jets, if you look through them them this year,
- 40:32Speaker 1: all their points usually come on the fourth quarter. So
- 40:34Speaker 1: here's my everything he said about my this this game
- 40:37Speaker 1: was vent. The Dolphins are moving the ball, they get
- 40:41Speaker 1: a couple of penalties and they missed a fifty four
- 40:44Speaker 1: yard field goal and Mike McDaniel's face on that was great.
- 40:47Speaker 1: Like normally coaches like are so stoic, and they had
- 40:50Speaker 1: a shot at close up of Mike McDaniel's after he
- 40:52Speaker 1: missed that field goal, and it was he was like,
- 40:55Speaker 1: what what does happen? Like it was just a great,
- 40:58Speaker 1: great look and like it was it mad. It was
- 41:00Speaker 1: just sort of mystified, right, and that was the game, right,
- 41:04Speaker 1: Like they could have gone on ten. That had the momentum.
- 41:07Speaker 1: They were stopping him and then all of a sudden
- 41:08Speaker 1: it was you know, turnovers and a bunch of things
- 41:11Speaker 1: in its team role. But I do like Miami in
- 41:14Speaker 1: the spot. That's totally the point. The Carolina Panthers look
- 41:20Speaker 1: new coach, new quarterback on the road at the Rams.
- 41:24Speaker 1: I want to get a shout out here to our
- 41:26Speaker 1: luck rankings that we've talked about Nick Giffin, Billy Ward,
- 41:30Speaker 1: Sean Kroner. They started doing it this past week. It's
- 41:33Speaker 1: brilliant and um. It basically accounts for factors that are
- 41:41Speaker 1: high variant moments in a game that if you put
- 41:44Speaker 1: them all together, is an indication of this team was
- 41:48Speaker 1: a little bit luckier or this team was a little
- 41:50Speaker 1: bit unluckier. The number one team in terms of luck
- 41:55Speaker 1: versus unluck or lack of luck this past week was
- 41:58Speaker 1: the Rams. You play that game seventy hundred times seventy
- 42:03Speaker 1: times based on the underlying stats, the Rams win that
- 42:07Speaker 1: game and cover against the Cowboys. Everyone going to the
- 42:10Speaker 1: Action Network app or going Action Network dot com read
- 42:13Speaker 1: about the luck rankings. They're amazing. And I'll also say
- 42:15Speaker 1: that of the teams that had the biggest descripant season
- 42:18Speaker 1: luck for this formula going into week five, um, they
- 42:22Speaker 1: were six and three of the top nine teams or
- 42:26Speaker 1: six and three against the spread. That was teams that
- 42:29Speaker 1: had a differential of ten luck points or more. Fascinating formula.
- 42:34Speaker 1: I'm so into it. I love it. Check it out.
- 42:37Speaker 1: The Rams were the unluckiest team in the NFL this
- 42:39Speaker 1: past week. Hey guys, if you're still listening to this, Simon,
- 42:43Speaker 1: uh yeah, I agree with Chad like it's I want
- 42:47Speaker 1: to take the Rams bad. But what the hell are
- 42:49Speaker 1: the Rams? They look lost Yet they can't run the ball,
- 42:52Speaker 1: which we know McVeigh needs in his offense, So now
- 42:54Speaker 1: they're one dimensional. Not only that, the only guy that
- 42:57Speaker 1: seems you can catch the ball is Cooper Cup, which
- 42:59Speaker 1: we all are. He knew, Um, just a bizarre team.
- 43:03Speaker 1: Everything about them. It's just so weird. The Rams. I
- 43:05Speaker 1: knew they're having a Super Bowl hangover, but what the
- 43:08Speaker 1: funk man, They're They're broken, Like, like you just said,
- 43:10Speaker 1: how did they lose that game in Dallas? It was bizarre?
- 43:13Speaker 1: What was the first play? Like a strip sack and
- 43:15Speaker 1: he took it back for a touchdown. It's and then
- 43:17Speaker 1: a punt yea. Every everything going wrong for the Rams.
- 43:21Speaker 1: So I'm with Chad. I feel like we should be
- 43:24Speaker 1: betting them here, but I don't know. I feel like
- 43:26Speaker 1: I'm either will be on Carolina or just stay away.
- 43:28Speaker 1: It's it's going to be a pass for me because
- 43:31Speaker 1: there's also the factor of a new head coach and
- 43:33Speaker 1: a new quarterback, and that I think of that actually
- 43:36Speaker 1: is an advantage for Carolina. Cardinals on the road at
- 43:41Speaker 1: the Seahawks. The Cardinals now two and a half point favorites.
- 43:44Speaker 1: Very interesting game. Here's something that my buddy Mike Schiffman
- 43:48Speaker 1: texted me. Mike's a long time producer and executive at ESPN.
- 43:53Speaker 1: He's also a futures savant and he texted me the
- 43:56Speaker 1: other day and he's like, should I be betting the
- 44:00Speaker 1: Cardinals a plus nine hundred to win the NFC West
- 44:02Speaker 1: right now? The Niners don't look great, The Rams don't
- 44:06Speaker 1: look great. The Seahawks don't look great. The Cardinals like
- 44:09Speaker 1: are not that far out of it, and they got
- 44:11Speaker 1: DeAndre Hopkins coming back. I don't I hate it because
- 44:15Speaker 1: I think everyone's on the same thing. It's just like,
- 44:17Speaker 1: no one knows what the Cardinals all. They just seem dysfunctional,
- 44:21Speaker 1: just like that Rams team does. But like you just said,
- 44:22Speaker 1: at least they're healthy. Where Stafford might have a bad
- 44:25Speaker 1: elbow and they have a bad offensive line, Cardinals, for
- 44:28Speaker 1: the most part, stayed relatively healthy and they're getting Hopkins back.
- 44:32Speaker 1: I didn't know what to do with this game. My
- 44:34Speaker 1: my my gun instinct is just take the dog at
- 44:36Speaker 1: home in a divisional game, So that's what I'll be on.
- 44:39Speaker 1: It's just the Seahawks obviously aren't that good. Eventually, Gino's
- 44:44Speaker 1: gonna come back down to Earth and I'll get caught eventually.
- 44:46Speaker 1: Maybe we got caught last week. But it feels like
- 44:49Speaker 1: the Seahawks are a good team, not as bad as
- 44:51Speaker 1: we all thought they were coming to this year. The
- 44:53Speaker 1: Cardinals yeah, they've looked better. Um. But at the same time,
- 44:57Speaker 1: like even watching that Eagles getting back, there's something missing
- 45:00Speaker 1: there on that offense. Like Kyler, he's so dynamic, and
- 45:04Speaker 1: again I think what they put up seventeen against the Eagles,
- 45:06Speaker 1: that's just that's too little for them. And all the
- 45:08Speaker 1: speed they have on that offense at home, UM, I
- 45:11Speaker 1: don't know, put them outside against the Seahawks team. I'm
- 45:16Speaker 1: dying to take the Seahawks here, but the fear is,
- 45:19Speaker 1: like Chad just said, I think Cardinals probably are the
- 45:21Speaker 1: better team, they got the better quarterback. Just playing the numbers,
- 45:24Speaker 1: they'll take the plus three divisional dog, but I don't
- 45:27Speaker 1: know if it'll be one of our five. I'm just
- 45:29Speaker 1: I'm leaking a little confidence here on the Seahawks team.
- 45:31Speaker 1: I don't think it will be right now. We've got
- 45:33Speaker 1: four in the list Atlanta five and a half Saints
- 45:36Speaker 1: to Cleveland three in Miami plus three. I think that
- 45:41Speaker 1: what do you have this game rated at? What's your number?
- 45:44Speaker 1: And that's why I was like all over the Seahawks.
- 45:45Speaker 1: I had to send minus one Seahawks, so I'm getting
- 45:47Speaker 1: a ton of value. But I think, my god, yeah,
- 45:50Speaker 1: but I think I'm overrating the Seahawks. That's my issue
- 45:52Speaker 1: right now. So I'm just a little wearier. It's like,
- 45:55Speaker 1: clear the books they think they got a good number
- 45:57Speaker 1: here on the Cardinals. And again, if the public came
- 46:00Speaker 1: in really heavy on the Seahawks, I would be completely
- 46:03Speaker 1: off of the game. But the fact that it's split
- 46:05Speaker 1: right now, it kind of makes me a little more
- 46:06Speaker 1: confident on taking the Shawks in this position. Maybe we'll
- 46:09Speaker 1: get some sharp calls about it. Game of the Week, big,
- 46:13Speaker 1: big game. The Bills make me want candles something. Throw
- 46:19Speaker 1: your hands up and throw your hand back, and from
- 46:23Speaker 1: now the Bills are making it happen now. Game of
- 46:26Speaker 1: the Week Bills visiting the Chiefs. This game open Chiefs
- 46:31Speaker 1: one and a half. It's now two and a half
- 46:34Speaker 1: before we get to you, Matt Mitchell, Bills Mafia. Don
- 46:41Speaker 1: how you feeling? This is a this is a gut
- 46:44Speaker 1: check game. The Bills creamed the Chiefs last year in
- 46:49Speaker 1: the regular season at Arrowhead in that weird game with
- 46:52Speaker 1: the lightning delay. They spent the entire off season assembling
- 46:56Speaker 1: a super team specifically to be just this team, after
- 47:01Speaker 1: coming within thirty seconds of doing just that in the playoffs,
- 47:04Speaker 1: last year. They're doing that. They appear to be in
- 47:07Speaker 1: unstoppable war machine, hell bent on world domination. I think
- 47:12Speaker 1: the Bills absolute role in this game, and maybe that's hupress,
- 47:16Speaker 1: maybe that's insanity. I usually am consumed with dread for
- 47:21Speaker 1: Bills games, especially Big Bills games. I think they absolutely
- 47:24Speaker 1: win this going away. The number of pictures we may
- 47:27Speaker 1: get of Matt Mitchell wearing gloves while he's eating buffalo
- 47:30Speaker 1: wings could be astonishing. It's in my least favorite window, dinnertime, bathtime,
- 47:36Speaker 1: bedtime window for two small children. So I'm a little
- 47:38Speaker 1: pissy about that. I'd rather it was just a primetime game.
- 47:41Speaker 1: But yeah, good chance the surgical gloves come out wings
- 47:44Speaker 1: go into my mouth, for sure, Simon, I agree with
- 47:47Speaker 1: what Matt said, like this numbers moved up. Chiefs. They
- 47:51Speaker 1: generally have not looked good. You're kind of banking on
- 47:54Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes to find a way to bail you out. Yeah.
- 47:57Speaker 1: I don't know what the hell to do with this.
- 47:58Speaker 1: I love the Chiefs. How do we not love the Chiefs?
- 48:00Speaker 1: Dad their home dog. Yeah, they played bad last week,
- 48:04Speaker 1: isn't that more of a reason to take them here?
- 48:05Speaker 1: They played it bad against the divisional team. The Bills
- 48:08Speaker 1: look like all world, So I don't know. I'll buy low.
- 48:11Speaker 1: I'll take the Chiefs. Don't be an idiot. Don't tease
- 48:14Speaker 1: this number. We already talked about it. When when Josh
- 48:16Speaker 1: Allen beats you, he beats the ship out of you.
- 48:18Speaker 1: I can't see this. That's the only where you're here, right,
- 48:21Speaker 1: They're giving you the two and a half. Now, every
- 48:24Speaker 1: one of their grandam's gonna have that eight and a
- 48:25Speaker 1: half teas with the Chiefs. Why wouldn't you. That's a
- 48:28Speaker 1: great teaser leg. But just looking at this number, I
- 48:32Speaker 1: want to take the Chiefs bad. I know two really
- 48:34Speaker 1: smart guys who are all in on this Bills team.
- 48:37Speaker 1: They love them in this position. For what matches talked about.
- 48:40Speaker 1: They're built to beat this Chief's team. They beat him
- 48:43Speaker 1: last year in that playoffs game. It just took a
- 48:45Speaker 1: literally a miracle from the Homes and whoever the ball
- 48:47Speaker 1: lasts is gonna win. It just so happened as my homes.
- 48:50Speaker 1: It feels like the same thing in this game. Whoever
- 48:52Speaker 1: as the ball lasts is gonna win it. I'm happy
- 48:54Speaker 1: to take the moneyline or take the two and a
- 48:56Speaker 1: half of this Chiefs team interesting. Should we put that
- 49:00Speaker 1: in our list? Right now? We've got four games on
- 49:02Speaker 1: our list. The next one I like, you know it's
- 49:05Speaker 1: coming all right. Well, I'm on the fence right now
- 49:09Speaker 1: about this game. I don't have a strong opinion yet.
- 49:14Speaker 1: The Bills clearly look like the better team right now.
- 49:18Speaker 1: Chiefs is underdogs at home? Are you fucking kidding me?
- 49:22Speaker 1: No opinion yet? We're gonna wait until Thursday. We'll continue
- 49:25Speaker 1: to develop, apologize. We can't give people an opinion today.
- 49:28Speaker 1: Next game, we definitely have an opinion. Cowboys visiting the Eagles.
- 49:32Speaker 1: You can get the Eagles at four and a half
- 49:34Speaker 1: point favorites right now to fucking buy for me? Yeah,
- 49:37Speaker 1: no brainer? Come on, are you kidding me? Easy bet?
- 49:42Speaker 1: And it's like one of those right right when that
- 49:44Speaker 1: game ended with Dallas and the Rams, I thought to myself, Wow,
- 49:47Speaker 1: Eagles are going to get an amazing number, just because
- 49:50Speaker 1: once again the all world defense of the Dallas Cowboys
- 49:54Speaker 1: just absolutely abusing all these teams they play. They're finally
- 49:58Speaker 1: gonna play the best offensive line of a ball So
- 50:00Speaker 1: it's gonna be true, truly, the best the Cowboys have
- 50:05Speaker 1: against the best the Eagles can have and the biggest again,
- 50:09Speaker 1: the biggest descrepy in me is this the Eagles offers
- 50:12Speaker 1: like we we know exactly where again from hurts were
- 50:15Speaker 1: Cooper Rush man? Like that was unreal how bad he
- 50:19Speaker 1: was in that game. Um, I've enjoyed trolling the Cowboys
- 50:23Speaker 1: fans about them trading Doc and they should hold on
- 50:25Speaker 1: to Cooper Rush. But we kind of saw Cooper kind
- 50:28Speaker 1: of turned back into a pumpkin last week. Um gamer right,
- 50:32Speaker 1: still what is he now? Five? And oh a t
- 50:34Speaker 1: s chat some crazy like Um, but yeah, Eagles Sunday
- 50:38Speaker 1: night at home, it's a different world. Uh, he's about
- 50:42Speaker 1: to step into Cooper Rush here. So to me Eagles
- 50:45Speaker 1: if you're scared. And once again first half they're unbelievable
- 50:49Speaker 1: like that last week that was a sweater. But was
- 50:52Speaker 1: it not really like they're up fourteen nothing If you
- 50:54Speaker 1: were smart enough and I wasn't just to turn off
- 50:56Speaker 1: the tv. That was a good that was an easy winner. Um.
- 51:00Speaker 1: This Egos team is just good. They're playing at a
- 51:02Speaker 1: good level right now where they probably should have lost
- 51:04Speaker 1: the Arizona game, but things keep going their way. They're
- 51:07Speaker 1: just a complete team. Five and os no fluke. They
- 51:10Speaker 1: feel like they're really well put together Dallas. I don't
- 51:15Speaker 1: know what to make them. Let them the Giants like
- 51:16Speaker 1: four and one, that's incredible. Their four one with the
- 51:19Speaker 1: backup quarterback since week one, truly incredible. So I'm trying,
- 51:23Speaker 1: I'm trying hard not to make it my like bigger
- 51:26Speaker 1: bets of this week of the Eagles. But it feels
- 51:29Speaker 1: like such a bad spot for this Cowboys team. They're
- 51:31Speaker 1: just do for such a stinker, and this is a
- 51:33Speaker 1: perfect spot for an Eagles team. Yeah, I love, love, love,
- 51:37Speaker 1: want to marry the Eagles in this spot. If you
- 51:40Speaker 1: can get four and a half half, you gotta take
- 51:43Speaker 1: it right away. It's not I don't think it's gonna
- 51:45Speaker 1: go lower. Um, so go get it, Go get it.
- 51:52Speaker 1: That is in our contest right now. Last game Chargers
- 51:55Speaker 1: minus five against the Broncos. This is interesting to me
- 51:57Speaker 1: that the Monday night game, the money the tickets are
- 52:02Speaker 1: on the Chargers and the money is on the Broncos.
- 52:05Speaker 1: I don't know why anybody would be betting the Broncos
- 52:08Speaker 1: at this point, just because who the hell of the
- 52:10Speaker 1: Chargers to big of a favorite and a divisional game.
- 52:13Speaker 1: I think that's probably what my first thought was to um.
- 52:16Speaker 1: But then yeah, like Chad to just talked about take
- 52:19Speaker 1: a step away? Did he really get surgery this week?
- 52:21Speaker 1: Russell Wilson and now he's turned around and playing in
- 52:24Speaker 1: a football game. Um, weird. I won't touch it. Maybe
- 52:27Speaker 1: I'll be on the under. I don't know what they
- 52:29Speaker 1: really do with this game as we sit here, but
- 52:31Speaker 1: I just know a couple of guys I talked to
- 52:33Speaker 1: are just like the Chargers team aren't that good or
- 52:36Speaker 1: maybe they are good, they just have some of the
- 52:37Speaker 1: worst coaching. This is the worst coaching matchup we've had
- 52:40Speaker 1: this season, right, Both these guys major question mark. So
- 52:45Speaker 1: UM me putting big money on either of these guys,
- 52:47Speaker 1: no chance. I'll probably just pass on this one. Should
- 52:51Speaker 1: we give people a early survivor pick? I had a
- 52:57Speaker 1: really tough time this week. I want to take the Rams,
- 53:00Speaker 1: but that feels like an awful trap that I'll just
- 53:02Speaker 1: be walking right into. UM, But you kind of have
- 53:06Speaker 1: to though, I know they're just there. There isn't There
- 53:09Speaker 1: isn't other options that just really jumped out. So when
- 53:12Speaker 1: are you gonna want to use the Rams again? That's fair?
- 53:15Speaker 1: I know you didn't love it, but the Bucks weren't terrible. Yeah,
- 53:19Speaker 1: their their minds eight. But I'm with chat like it,
- 53:22Speaker 1: just what else would we take the Rams? This feels
- 53:25Speaker 1: like the last chance. But that's what it's just scaring
- 53:27Speaker 1: the hell out of me. Like you talked about, they
- 53:29Speaker 1: have the new coach in the new quarterback, but we're
- 53:33Speaker 1: just banking on them just being truly awful. Yeah, maybe
- 53:36Speaker 1: it'll change on Thursday. As we say here today my
- 53:38Speaker 1: best two options, I could give you four Eagles. I
- 53:41Speaker 1: don't hate the Eagles either, but that's that's a little
- 53:43Speaker 1: spooking pray to taking the Bucks. That is a risk, yeah,
- 53:47Speaker 1: but at the same time, I don't know if it
- 53:49Speaker 1: is like I just would, I honestly would be shocked
- 53:51Speaker 1: if they lost a cop rush on the road went
- 53:53Speaker 1: in this game coming to Philadelphia. But yeah, Bucks, Bucks,
- 53:57Speaker 1: Bucks Rams feel like the two safest ones for so
- 53:59Speaker 1: I've all right, our foxhole is Saints plus two. But
- 54:04Speaker 1: I would I would recommend don't don't rush it because
- 54:09Speaker 1: I do feel like this line is gonna move up
- 54:11Speaker 1: a little bit. Simon says Atlanta plus five and a
- 54:14Speaker 1: half love it, exact decision, Cleveland minus three love it,
- 54:18Speaker 1: foreshadowing we might talk ourselves into the Steelers. There's are
- 54:21Speaker 1: big balls better the week, but we'll decide that on Thursday.
- 54:25Speaker 1: Our current phase five Atlanta five and a half, Saints
- 54:28Speaker 1: to Cleveland three Miami plus three Eagles minus four and
- 54:31Speaker 1: a half. On Thursday we'll nail down the list. We'll
- 54:35Speaker 1: talk about sharp Calls, will play Scooch Roulette, which, by
- 54:38Speaker 1: the way, this past week, UM, I think I mentioned
- 54:42Speaker 1: you one I lost. I don't know. We'll continue to
- 54:46Speaker 1: love and support each other's what we do. Can't wait
- 54:50Speaker 1: for Simon Hunter. For producer Extraordinaire Matt Mitchell, I am
- 54:54Speaker 1: Chad Millman. This has been the favorite podcast from the
- 54:56Speaker 1: Volume podcast Network. Download us from Apple podcast, from Spotify,
- 55:01Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast rate, whether you subscribe, we
- 55:04Speaker 1: just five stars. Ship whatever you want, feedback as a
- 55:06Speaker 1: gift Until next time. I love you, h