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What's behind Iceland's security headache · INSIGHT TODAY

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Iceland has learned how to deal with threats like these,
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: But now military competition has returned to the Arctic, and
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Iceland sits at the center of it all, the only
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: NATO member without an army of its own. Iceland thought
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: it would be okay because NATO had its back, but
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump has put that all in doubt, and Iceland
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: is suddenly asking itself what if NATO isn't enough. In Iceland,
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  Speaker 1: you can literally swim between two continents that the tectonic
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: plates dividing North America and Europe also make Iceland one
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  Speaker 1: of the most volcanically active places on Earth. Anyone who
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: visits Iceland quickly learns to respect the power of nature.
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  Speaker 1: But today and another kind of power is threatening. The
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  Speaker 1: island's secure already.
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  Speaker 2: Two there's so much quite on on both sides of
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  Speaker 2: us that we better control what's happening in our own region,
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  Speaker 2: in our own backyard.
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  Speaker 3: Iceland's backyard.
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  Speaker 1: That's the region between the Arctic Ocean and the North
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  Speaker 1: Atlantic where military competition is growing more intense, and Greenland
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  Speaker 1: is Iceland's closest neighbor. Yes, that Greenland, the autonomous Danish
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: territory that Trump has threatened to take over multiple times.
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  Speaker 3: We need Greenland for national security. But what really caused
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  Speaker 3: alarm in Iceland was this.
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  Speaker 4: I mean, our stock market took the first dip yesterday
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  Speaker 4: because of Iceland.
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  Speaker 3: So Iceland's already cost us a lot of money.
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  Speaker 5: I mean, he's at one point he didn't even know
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  Speaker 5: whether it was talking about Iceland or Greenland. So obviously
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  Speaker 5: this this evokes strong feelings here. It did not make
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  Speaker 5: anyone feel particularly secure in Iceland.
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  Speaker 1: That's Pia Hanson, She's probably the expert in Iceland on
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  Speaker 1: international affairs. Iceland and Greenland do have a lot in
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  Speaker 1: common by king history, their remote, wild nature and sparse populations.
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  Speaker 1: But Iceland is actually greener and less icy than Greenland,
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  Speaker 1: and it is an independent country.
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  Speaker 3: Around four hundred thousand.
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  Speaker 1: People live here. That's roughly half the population of San Francisco.
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  Speaker 1: It might be small, but it is wealthy.
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  Speaker 3: Today.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Women hold all top leadership positions. Even the top Lutheran bishop.
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  Speaker 3: Is a woman.
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  Speaker 1: This is the current Prime Minister, Christren Frostadotier. She has
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  Speaker 1: been pretty outspoken visa VI Trump.
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  Speaker 2: Greenland belongs to the people of Greenland. The same is
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  Speaker 2: for Iceland. The same is for all these allies that
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  Speaker 2: are around US.
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  Speaker 1: Calling out the US is a balancing act for Iceland.
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  Speaker 1: The country has relied on the US for its security
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  Speaker 1: because it doesn't have an army and it didn't think
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  Speaker 1: it needed one.
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  Speaker 5: You have to also remember how small we were.
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  Speaker 1: When Iceland became an independent republic in nineteen forty four.
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  Speaker 1: Around one hundred twenty five thousand people lived on the island.
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  Speaker 5: And we were extremely poor. The dream was always to
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  Speaker 5: be that, you know, to be the neutral, tiny little
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  Speaker 5: island in the middle of the ocean, that nobody would bother,
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  Speaker 5: make good relations with everyone, but not take sites. But
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  Speaker 5: that changed, of course, dramatically, as soon as we entered
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  Speaker 5: NATO in forty nine.
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  Speaker 4: This union of twelve nations became known as the North
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  Speaker 4: Atlantic Treaty Organization, or more simply NATO. They were sworn
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  Speaker 4: to stand together against aggression. An attack against one would
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  Speaker 4: be an attack against all.
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  Speaker 1: But hundreds took through the streets in protest. People worried
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  Speaker 1: that joining NATO would break with Iceland's neutrality.
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  Speaker 3: Was heated.
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  Speaker 5: It was politically highly charged. It was for a long
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  Speaker 5: time still quite controversial.
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  Speaker 1: Still, the political decision behind Iceland joining NATO was pragmatic.
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  Speaker 1: If you don't even have an army, you need somebody
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  Speaker 1: else to take care of your security. But why would
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  Speaker 1: NATO want a country without an army?
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  Speaker 3: Location? Location Location.
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  Speaker 5: Certainly, the US pushed for US joining NATO because the
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  Speaker 5: importance of actually having a presence here this region is
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  Speaker 5: of high importance strategically speaking.
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  Speaker 1: Just for context, the first US troops actually landed in
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  Speaker 1: Iceland before the US joined World War Two. They took
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  Speaker 1: over an occupation from the British, who had started it
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: to prevent Nazi Germany from invading the island. Iceland lies
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  Speaker 1: on what is called the Greenland Iceland UK get Giuk,
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: a naval chokepoint between the Arctic Ocean and the Atlantic.
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  Speaker 1: That area became a frontline during the Cold War. Submarines
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  Speaker 1: of the Soviet Union's Northern Fleet, which had its headquarters
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  Speaker 1: in Mormansk, relied on the passage through this gap to
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  Speaker 1: reach the North Atlantic. An underwater sound surveillance system provided
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  Speaker 1: early detection of Soviet submarines.
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  Speaker 6: Licenser has historically had a core role as a NATO
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  Speaker 6: ford operating base in the Arc.
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  Speaker 1: That's Neil Melvin. His research focuses on security in the
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  Speaker 1: Arctic and the High North Maritime Patrol. Aircraft like these
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  Speaker 1: operated from here Kevlovik Airfield. So one of NATO's strategic
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  Speaker 1: outposts during the Cold War was in Iceland.
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  Speaker 6: It's really like a gigantic aircraft carrier in the middle
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  Speaker 6: of the North Atlantic that's unsinkable.
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  Speaker 1: Kevlevic was used by the US, an arrangement that was
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  Speaker 1: part of the defense deal the US and Iceland signed
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  Speaker 1: in nineteen fifty one, and Iceland profited from that partnership.
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  Speaker 1: The abbase brought jobs, investment, and infrastructure to the island.
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  Speaker 6: For sixty years, we had this large US operating base
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  Speaker 6: with permanent forces based in Iceland at the airport Keflavik.
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  Speaker 5: At the end of the Cold War, I think we
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  Speaker 5: all kind of hoped, and you know, we're into the
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  Speaker 5: end of history. It thinks are just hunky dory by now,
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  Speaker 5: and we're just going to be happy and nobody's going
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  Speaker 5: to have a war anywhere in Europe.
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  Speaker 6: And in two thousand and sixty, the assessment was what
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  Speaker 6: was made, the threat had basically ended. You know, we
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  Speaker 6: didn't see this confrontation in Europe anymore.
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  Speaker 1: In two thousand and six, the US military left Iceland.
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  Speaker 3: By the way.
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  Speaker 1: US giant McDonald's stuck around until two thousand and nine,
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: when it closed its restaurants on the island, and that's
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  Speaker 1: the global financial crisis.
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: But one true piece of Americana remained.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: A large fry and a Teesburger survived for more than
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: a decade and were on display at a hostel. But
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: back to our story, the US was technically still Iceland
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  Speaker 1: security guarante, but was basically just phoning it in.
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  Speaker 6: I think many people in Iceland felt that they didn't
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  Speaker 6: really have a protector at that point, so it was.
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  Speaker 5: Almost like on a personal level for many of the politicians,
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  Speaker 5: they felt betrayed and they tried to negotiate on issues
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  Speaker 5: of you know, at least let us keep a few
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  Speaker 5: fighter jets here. Let's you know, at least have some
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  Speaker 5: sort of a presence.
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  Speaker 1: The Icelandic Coastguard eventually took charge of Kavlavik. The agency
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  Speaker 1: is the closest thing to a military that Iceland has
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  Speaker 1: at Iceland continued hosting NATO military exercises, including a few
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: fighter jets, at least temporarily, but the Coastguard also carried
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  Speaker 1: on with its traditional missions like sea rescue and remember
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: everything was hanky dory right, and.
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  Speaker 6: Suddenly the Russians began to show up.
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  Speaker 1: In recent years, Russia has been pushing for dominance in
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  Speaker 1: the Arctic by revamping its Arctic bases and deploying its
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  Speaker 1: military in the region more frequently.
• 8:32
  Speaker 6: As the kind of Arctic environment has become more tense,
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  Speaker 6: particularly after the Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine, Iceland's
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  Speaker 6: position has returned in many ways to what it was
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  Speaker 6: during the Cold War.
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  Speaker 1: Russia is building more nuclear powered submarines and guess where
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  Speaker 1: they probably have to pass Yep through the Gauk Gap,
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  Speaker 1: just like Soviet submarines did during the Cold War.
• 9:01
  Speaker 6: We've seen, I think, a kind of a full circle
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  Speaker 6: as regards Iceland's geopolitical significance.
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  Speaker 1: And Iceland will probably only become more important also because
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: of climate change. The melting ice in the Arctic is
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  Speaker 1: creating a race for untapped resources and it opens potential
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  Speaker 1: shipping routes, new opportunities for maritime trade, and of course,
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  Speaker 1: NATO has also become increasingly active in the Arctic. The
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  Speaker 1: US even sent a nuclear powered attack submarine to Iceland,
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  Speaker 1: a historic first.
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  Speaker 6: There is a return to hard military competition in the
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  Speaker 6: Arctic and Iceland has become the front line because of that.
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  Speaker 1: So it was Iceland's turn to make a move. For
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  Speaker 1: the first time ever, it adopted a formal defense policy.
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  Speaker 1: Still no army, but a different attitude.
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  Speaker 5: For all of a sudden, from the issue of talking
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  Speaker 5: about defense in Iceland that was such a taboo. You
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  Speaker 5: wouldn't do it, you know, because it was you were
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  Speaker 5: just branded then a complete crazy person that wanted an army,
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  Speaker 5: and nobody would even talk to you. So I think
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  Speaker 5: that that was a huge change and a huge shift
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  Speaker 5: for us to all of a sudden say, okay, look,
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  Speaker 5: obviously we're part of a region now that is really
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  Speaker 5: facing a different security environment.
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  Speaker 1: And this guy, on top of mixing up Greenland and Iceland,
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump, has repeatedly threatened NATO even with leaving the alliance.
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  Speaker 5: You don't want to be noticed by Trump, right, So
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  Speaker 5: I think there's a lot of concern with the Icelandic authorities.
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  Speaker 1: Not long ago, Iceland reportedly spent less than zero point
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  Speaker 1: one percent of its GDP on defense related items such
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  Speaker 1: as equipment for its coastguard. Now the government is suddenly
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  Speaker 1: aim for one point five percent. That's the NATO goal.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, We are a country without a military, but that
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  Speaker 2: doesn't mean we don't have strong defenses. In a role
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  Speaker 2: to play in NATO, we do our very best to
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  Speaker 2: be a strong ally.
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  Speaker 1: Iceland tries to be of help without a military. It
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  Speaker 1: colleades the d mining Coalition that provides equipment and trains
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  Speaker 1: Ukrainian soldiers, and Iceland hosts its allies on the island.
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  Speaker 1: From Kavlavik, NATO pilots patrol the area around Iceland. Its
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  Speaker 1: location alone adds value to the alliance.
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  Speaker 5: We have a geostrategic importance in being able to play off.
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  Speaker 5: That is something that you know. It's practically the only
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  Speaker 5: thing we have, so we might as well use it right.
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  Speaker 1: And it seems to be working. Just listen to NATO
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  Speaker 1: Chief Mark Rutu.
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  Speaker 7: As a country, you are the iisaneers for many of
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  Speaker 7: us in NATO.
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  Speaker 1: Your leadership and resilience of pepertus is second to none.
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  Speaker 1: This is what he means. When volcanic activity threatened the
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  Speaker 1: town of Grindavik, Icelandic authorities were able to evacuate the
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  Speaker 1: population early.
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  Speaker 3: They built barriers to divert the.
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  Speaker 1: Lava flows, ultimately managing to protect a crucial power plant.
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  Speaker 3: For the region.
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  Speaker 1: Being exposed to the raw power of nature in this
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  Speaker 1: way has given Iceland a lot of experience in disaster
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  Speaker 1: relief and protecting critical infrastructure.
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  Speaker 6: I think island is part of this broader Nordic approach
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  Speaker 6: to societal resilience, where you could also argue I think
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  Speaker 6: that in Norway, Finland, Sweden, they have an approach that
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  Speaker 6: looks at security which is much wider than tanks and airplanes.
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  Speaker 1: Like Iceland, Norway is part of NATO, and Finland and
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  Speaker 1: Sweden just joined recently following Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine.
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  Speaker 1: They all worry about Russia's military aggression and now they
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: wonder whether the US will be there if they need them.
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  Speaker 1: That has led the Nordic family to move closer together. Iceland, Norway, Finland,
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  Speaker 1: Sweden and also Denmark have deepened their cooperation when it
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: comes to defense, and there's an even bigger group of
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  Speaker 1: countries that Iceland is looking towards, the European Union. In
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  Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, EU chief Oseola Fonelaian came to Iceland
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  Speaker 1: to explore the island and discuss closer ties. Less than
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: a year later, Iceland signed a defense partnership with the EU.
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  Speaker 6: He's trying to find as many different partners and alliances
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  Speaker 6: that it can be part of because of the uncertainty
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  Speaker 6: about the US and the general direction of nature, and.
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  Speaker 1: That partnership could even go deeper if Iceland became a
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  Speaker 1: member of the EU.
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  Speaker 3: The population has split.
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  Speaker 1: People worry about economic disadvantages, for example when it comes
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: to fishing for the government. The path towards the potential
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: EU membership is also about security, just.
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  Speaker 6: A general sense of being part of a wider group.
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  Speaker 6: And I think that may be one of the benefits
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  Speaker 6: that Iceland would feel it has from joining the European Union.
• 14:15
  Speaker 6: There's a little bit of extra protection.
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  Speaker 1: We asked Icelanders, would joining the EU give them more security?
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  Speaker 4: Look to do America, But I think they are not
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  Speaker 4: real able Now. We should be a part of Europe.
• 14:32
  Speaker 5: We belong to Europe. I believe we are in NATO.
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  Speaker 3: That's clear. That's not gonna change.
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  Speaker 7: We have many allies with Iceland, many allies from Iceland
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  Speaker 7: that would be ready to step in probably, but yeah,
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  Speaker 7: that's a very big uncertainty.
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  Speaker 1: At the moment.
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  Speaker 7: Iceland is already in a in a let's say, defense
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  Speaker 7: alliance with Europe. Which and I think that alliance is
• 14:56
  Speaker 7: gonna stand. I think Iceland will be safe or equally
• 15:02
  Speaker 7: safe in or out of the European Union.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: So at the end of the day, the main defense
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: a lines in Europe isn't the EU, it's NATO.
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  Speaker 3: And NATO still.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Depends on the US for now, at least as does Iceland.
• 15:15
  Speaker 6: Despite what President Trump is saying, Iceland is becoming busier
• 15:20
  Speaker 6: and busier with US forces coming through, So Iceland will
• 15:23
  Speaker 6: remain a core US security interest because of the Russian threat,
• 15:28
  Speaker 6: US will continue to be involved in Iceland. I mean
• 15:32
  Speaker 6: it has to be in its own security perspective. So
• 15:35
  Speaker 6: this means Iceland now has to negotiate
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: That Iceland might not have an army to defend itself,
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: but it's been building friendships and it won't let anyone
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: forget where it is on the map.