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The Favorites - NFL Week 9 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I am Schad Milne of the Action Network. Today is
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: our Tuesday, Week nine episode where we break down the
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: entire slate of NFL games. We will discuss our exact
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: decision our Simon says, and we will start to narrow
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: down the options for our fave fives to put into
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: The Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Them contest. We went three and two this week. We
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: had a strong three to zero start to the day.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: In the early games, we had a heartbreaking mush mess
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: of a loss with the Bears that a lot of listeners,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: a lot of viewers got to experience live on Sunday
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: night as the bet and the Bears melted down before
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: my eyes. If you want to see someone almost stroking
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: out in real time on air, feel free to find
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: that clip which has been played numerous times of me
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: watching this game live while we lost the bet after
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: I mistakenly said we're four and oher when the Bears
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: had twenty three seconds left to screw it up. But
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: also had a Cowboys loss that I did not witness
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: because I drunk myself with all sorts of cough medicine
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: and went to bed. Here we are live from our
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Tommy John Holmes Studios. I'm joined as always, buy my COEs,
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: my companion, Mike and Padre my professional better sigmon Hu,
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: Hello s I'm in Hello chat.
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: It is a new week. You sound better, you look better.
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: Hopefully you're feeling a little better than you were someday.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: No joke, Brother, I until fifteen minutes ago, was hacking
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: up along. Got even know why I'm not right now.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to look into it. I'm not gonna
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: try to understand it. I'm just going to appreciate the
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: fact that I'm able to be on the air right
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: now without losing it for this second straight show. You know,
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: maybe underdogs of at least seven this year, Simon are
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: nine and eleven straight up most upset wins since two
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: thousand and eight this past week. That included the Browns
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: and the Pats. We've got four of those games this week,
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: all of which we will review. We did have a
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: bit of a return to normalcy this week. Road favorites
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: were well below five hundred after a three week stretch
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: of dominance. Road teams overall performed poorly, but the public
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: did win again This week. They went nine and six
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: against this bread Miami Arizona was a complete fifty to
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: fifty split. Crazy right. I will tell you, the conversation
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: about the Bears in my small, tiny corner of the
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: world has gone from what we wisnessed Sunday night to
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: text chain's galore. Last night, it was my younger son's
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: eighteenth birthday. We went to dinner, me, him and my wife,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: our older son, you know, is in Phillya College, and
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: half of the conversation was about the Bears, the Hail Mary.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: The other half, for some reason, was about whether or
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: not Anthony Rizzo deserved a statue at Wrigley Field because
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: he's so popular and the Bears and the Cubs won
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: a World Series with him. I'm like, dude, two sixty
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: hitters aren't getting statues because they win a World Series.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: But it's you know, it's the exuberance of youth the Bears,
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: dudet you collect all of the coaching mishaps in that game,
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: the poor discipline handing the ball to a backup offensive lineman,
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: the way they manage that Hail Mary. Letting them get
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: that thirteen yards to get even closer, like unwrapping it,
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: It just makes it even worse, simon it really you.
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: Got to sing the song, Chad, let it go, Let
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: it go. You gotta move on. You guys are a
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: one point favorite this week. They got to move on.
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: It's a new week.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Are we or are we not? That is the question.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: In a moment, we'll recap with results the results of
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: week eight and our contest announce the winner of our
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: big weekly cash prize. If you haven't yet, be sure
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: to sign up for the Free Favorites podcast one hundred
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: thousand dollars Pro Football pick'em contest presented by Bett three
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: sixty five. Just visit Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. We
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: are still giving away weekly cash prizes as a reminder,
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: The Favorite podcast is presented by Bet three six five
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: and now new Bet three six five. Customers get two
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: hundred dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: sign up using promo code Favorites deposit ten dollars a
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: place of bet for five dollars to get two hundred
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment,
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: it's never ordinary. At bet three six five. Must be
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: twenty one or older. In president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, we're eighteen and older.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: In Kentucky, gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms condition and
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: restrictions apply. Congratulations to week eight first place winner Jay
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: Houston GT. Jay Houston went five to zero and missed
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Monday night football tiebreaker by four, so he takes home
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: our weekly one thousand dollars cash prize. Well done. As always,
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, our producer, has selected his Producer's Cup award
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: to the entry that finished dead fucking last in the contest.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Have you about the loads and loser? He's a louise
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: about he still kids on try. This week's producer Cup
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: goes to why not Us, who went on to five
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: and missed the tiebreaker by two hundred and nineteen yards.
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: Why not Us?
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: Please email our producer at podcasts at Actionnetwork dot Com
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: to claim your prize. Time go to go to week nine, Simon.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Despite the way I sound, I feel really really good.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: First game up Thursday night. You were all over the
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Rams last week. You loved the Rams. You loved it
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: so much you had to talk about it on Thursday.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: It was one of your biggest bets of the week.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Houston is visiting the New York Jets. The Jets are
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: now two point favorites.
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: Crazy.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: They were one point favorites on Sunday night. Your line
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: was this is fishy and that you were going to
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: take the Texans. What in God's name is moving this
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: number right now? You look at the data, all the tickets,
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: all the money on the Texans. Is this like a
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: small group just taking a stand that the Texans have
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: been underperforming and getting lucky and the Jets are good
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: but have just been bad so they have to get better.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Why is this line going up?
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah? I think it's a lot of stuff too. Where
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: they we're professionals. They like home teams on Thursday from
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: the get go right because there's no travel in a
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: short week, especially where you know, say which one about
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: the Colts. That Houston game was pretty hard hitting and
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: now it's a short week, we have to travel. We
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: saw it the week before right with the Vikings playing Detroit.
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: It's tough, and you play those grueling divisional games that
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: are close to the end, and then you have to
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: travel in three days to go play a football game.
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: It is pretty crazy. So I'm not gonna be it.
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: To me, it's just the books are trying to scare
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: us off chat. That's what it feels like to me.
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: They're trying to show that there's professional movement here, that
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: professional money's coming in pretty heavy on this Jets team.
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: You could say that every week for the last three weeks,
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: professional money is coming on this Jets team. I mean
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: they've just been betting them and me and you joked
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: about it five weeks ago and it holds true today.
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: What would the Jets be if they just got a
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: different kicker like they'd They've made all these crazy moves
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: the end of the day, doesn't it really just come
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: down to this kicker? I mean, it is football. It's
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: such a simple game, and these teams trying to make
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: it so complicated they need to do all these different
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: things where it's like you're losing these games to the
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: special teams so great, keep moving the number. I'll be
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: the public sucker here with everyone else. I mean, Thursdays
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: have been really good to me this year. I think
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: I'm six and two this year on Thursdays. And you know,
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: usually if this was a Sunday game, I could be
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: talking to the Jets because this is such a pros
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: Verse shows game. But on Thursday, men you talked about
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: we throw that out the window. It's the public wins
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: on Thursdays. It's the truth. So like last week, people
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: are like, oh, you just fading the vikings because it's
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: the public, and it was like, no, you're getting a
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: really good number on a team that's getting healthy. This
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: is not that same spot. And I know Houston's had
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: injuries here, but at what point does a number catch
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: up to that? So we talked Houston's a different team
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: with Joe Mixon in the backfield, and this is a
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: Joe mixing game. Now, he got a little banged up
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: the into the game last week, so I have to
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: look more into that. But as we sit here right now,
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: I have made a bet on this one. I'm gonna
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: bet Houston, though I'm hoping against a two and a
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: half because people know how. I just think that's such
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: a key number. And yeah, this is a bizarre game.
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: I'm actually excited for this game because this number is
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: so bizarre. The movement of this line is so bizarre.
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: But we just talked about like there's there's a professional
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: there's multiple professional groups who just have been betting this
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: Jets team and they're getting caught. And I was one
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: of them. Last week. I had the Jets and a
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: bunch of different teasers. I thought there was no way
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: they dropped that game to the Patriots. And it took
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: a miracle, but they dropped that game. So yeah, I'm
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: I'm I'm in on Houston here, but I'll just wait
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: to get a better number.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting with these Thursday night games that what
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: you would classify as the better team has been winning
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: the games because when you have less prep, the players
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: who are better are the ones that you technically want
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: to back. And last week.
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: We talk about coaching mismatch here, right, I.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: Mean, and that's also a big part of it.
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, last.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Week was an anomalye with the Vikings and the Rams.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: You would think that the Rams were the team that
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: was not necessarily the better team. But they got Pukaakua
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: and Cooper cut Back and that championship calculus on that
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: team immediately. And then you've got the better quarterback in
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford and a really good coach in McVeigh. There's
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: no one who believes in the Jets coaching staff. Even
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: the Jets don't believe in the Jets coaching staff. So
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: it's a fascinating game. And like you know, there are
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: certain teams and wise guys get stubborn, professionals get stubborn.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: I know what the model says, I know what the
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: number says. It can't keep going as bad as it is,
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: and yet it's going as bad as it as it is,
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: So I don't mind it. I'm with you. I haven't
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: bet it yet. I'm probably gonna wait until the game time,
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: like I did with the Rams last week.
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: But you're the same thing as me, though, we're just
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: it's such a fishy line. We don't want touch it
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: because we don't understand what's happening.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: So I haven't I haven't heard enough. Yeah, Denver at Baltimore.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Baltimore is now a nine point favorite. Crazy This opened
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: at eight and a half on Sunday, went to nine,
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: back down Tate and a half back to nine. It
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: was pretty evenly split between tickets and money in the
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: early going. Now slightly more tickets on the Ravens a bit,
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry, slightly more tickets on and money on the
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: Broncos then on the Ravens. Look, the Broncos rushing offense
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: is terrible. They will not be able to run on
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: the Ravens, which have the top ranked rushing d I
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: think that's actually an advantage for the Broncos' you're laughing
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: at me, but let me explain. They like to let
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: it loose. Sean Payton has not treated bo Nicks like
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: a rookie at all. He's basically said to him, figure
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: it the fuck out, dude, like you're throwing deep. We're
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: doing trick plays. I'm not limiting the playbook. And that Ravens'
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: secondary is just out of sorts. You know. Ross Talker,
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: our good friend Ross Talker talked about this in the
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: broadcast last week. They have so many drives and so
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: many plays where they look confused and they don't know
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: what they're doing as the ball is snapped. And he's
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: like it shows up on film every single week and
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: the fact they are giving up the most points in
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: the NFL in the second half. Nine is just a
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: big number for a Broncos team that has proven this
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: year they're going to keep playing, keep going, take every
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: rep as a as a possibility for the future of
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: Bonnick's being better. Even in this Panthers game, they kept
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: throwing the ball so kind of lean Broncos here.
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think Humphreys is supposed to be out,
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: and so's Nate Wiggins, which, you know, as much as
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: we want to bash this Ravens secondary, those two guys
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: have been really good this year. They've just faced really
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: tough competition. And we saw last week with Jamis you know,
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: he almost almost got to the end there that Kyle
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: Hamilton should have should have picked it. But overall in
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: that whole game, he was great and there was open
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: receivers streaking down the field. And you know, not only
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: did the injuries catch up to the Ravens there, we talked,
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: I just don't trust their coaches to make adjustments. And
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: what happened that second half they got blown out Like
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: the first half they played so well, and then the
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: adjustments were made by Cleveland. There was no counter by
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: the Ravens, And that's been my whole take. I mean,
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: you keep talking every week about the Ravens have given
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: up the most second half points in the league, right,
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: I feel like we've talked about that where oh yeah, totally,
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: they've struggled.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: I I just said it, how do we not.
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: Take the Broncos here? So this is another game where
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: I need to look more into it because I don't
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: get this line. I make this line seven. It's always
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: past the key number of seven and a half, eight and
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: a half up to nine. Now it's I'll take it
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: like I'm gonna take this number. And just because I
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: get the Ravens are gonna bounce back here, I understand
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: they'll be able to move the ball, and you know
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: we're betting on bone knicks on the road in this position.
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: But Jadd just said it like this kid isn't treated
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: like a rookie, and I'm trying not to treat him
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: as one. We've seen him. I mean, they had that
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: run there, they went to Tampa, they won on the road,
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: and I think they went up to New York. I
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: know it was a fluky because the Jets again miss
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: field goals, but they kept that game close and won
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: that game, like this is a team that's not has
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: not been scared, especially with bon Knicks go on the
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: road and win these games. And as dominant the Ravens
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: have been offensively, you know Denver's defense, no just walk over,
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: their defense actually played me. Yes, I agree, and I
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: just think this is way too much, way too much
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: number not to take a plus nine. I wanted to
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: avoid this game just because we are so due for
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: a Ravens just to roll a team by thirty points
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: and Denver to play bad right, I mean, they're literally
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: half a game away from hitting their win total. We're
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: not even at the midway point. Like this is a
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: team that has overachieved so much, and we have a
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: team in the Ravens that are a veteran team coming
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: off a brutal divisional loss. This is usually where they
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: kill a team like this, especially with the rookie quarterback.
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: So yes, just being weary, not guaranteed to be one
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: of our five. But man am I I mean I'm
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: betting this right now, like literally bet it before it
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: came on the air. A couple books are back up
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: to nine. I'm gonna bet it again just because it's
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: crossed that key number again. So very interesting to see
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: what the pros have to say about this one, because
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: right now I love it. But there must be something
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: I'm missing here just because this number is so high.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: Well, look, you nailed it on the adjustments and that
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: is something that Sean Paate and excels at. Right Yeah,
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: he's one of the best coaches in the NFL in
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: twenty years at making adjustments at halftime to improve his
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: team's chances to win in the second half. And if
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: we're talking about the Broncos defense, is it is a
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: legit top five defense, right They're front four. They have
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: the best passing defense in the league in passing efficiency,
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: they're third in pressure rate. No one really stops Lamar.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: I don't mind backing Denver on the promise of a
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: big second half from bow Knicks. Jamis like tore that
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: defense apart in the second half when he threw his
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: touchdown pass to win the game. It was the twenty
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: first completion of twenty five or more yards given up
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: by Baltimore, which leads the NFL. So I do not
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: worry about backing Denver here right now? Yeah, right now,
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: Las Vegas Cincinnati, this is a game that we talked
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: about on Sunday night a little bit. Yeah, it opened
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: at seven and a half, got up to eight and
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: a half while we were recording. Actually it got up
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: to eight and a half and then dropped back down
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: almost to the minute when we were discussing that the
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: Raiders were our early lean. I read this week that
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: Desmond Ritter may get some snaps, some snaps because Gardner Minshew,
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: who we love, cannot hold on to the ball. Another
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: costly turnover against the Chiefs which almost cost us our cover.
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: They have the most turnovers in the league, the most
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: fumbles in the league, the second most I in T's
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: they could win the turnover triple Crown simon. So this
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: makes it a very hard to bet on them in
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: a non spot situation. Right, we did last week against
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs, and the Bengals are free falling, But like,
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: what's the status with t Higgins? To me, that's the
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: difference between maybe this is a play and maybe this
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: isn't to play at all.
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, But honestly, though, if that doesn't ridder news is true,
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't touch this game. I'll probably end up having
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: a little just thrown on the money. Line of Vegas here,
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: just because this Bengals team. I mean, let's be honest,
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: like even talking about last week, you know, who are
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: they to be that big of a favorite at home
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: when they haven't won a home game yet this season.
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: And you can get the Raiders at plus three hundred
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: right now against this Bengals team that they could just
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: implode and fold in on themselves at any moment. But
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: I talked about last week. They seem like the type
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: of team that they can beat up on bad teams
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: and they struggle against good teams. We both agree Raiders
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: are a bad team, not just because of the injuries,
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: not just because of the coaching mishaps. But end of
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: the day, it's the quarterback, right Minshew's been bad this year.
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's me any better when they turn
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: to their backup. So this is a game I wanted
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: to bust a bet, especially when I was eight and
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: a half. Now there's other lines I've kind of fallen
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: in love with and I like more than this one,
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: So I have no issue passing on this one here.
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: It's just so tempting to take the money line of
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: the Raiders. But man, if it's Desmond Rader, Me, Me
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: and Chad already went through this last year. There's just
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: I can't invest a lot of money into this guy
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: at quarterback.
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: I'm surprised that Broncos at plus nine was not your
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: Simon says. We've got assignment says, and an exec decision
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: still to come. New England at Tennessee. It's another one
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: that you pegged on ya as liking New England as
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: the three point dog. It got bet down to two
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: and a half, immediately went back up to three. Look,
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: the Patriots are trash. The Titans are trash, and the
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: Titans defense actually isn't terrible, right, Like they're second against
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: play action in the NFL. First against the deep ball, third,
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: win a quarterback is not facing any pressure. Third against
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: rushing inside the tackles. Like rushing inside the tackles that
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: might be the only thing the Patriots can do. Yeah,
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: I really really wanted to bet on the Titans coming
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: off a blowout. You know, it just feels like when
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: you want to back that kind of team, that scenario
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: is not in. The Titans favor home faves after a
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: loss of thirty plus points forty two percent against the spread.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: Yep since two thousand and three, both tickets and even
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: more money on New England. Right now, New England is
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: feeling more and more like the side feels like you
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: kind of nailed it on Sunday night.
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And honestly though I've I've talked to some professionals.
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: You do like the Tennessee side, and I'm with you.
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: I think they're just blindly bending because they just got
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: blown out in a game which it was all special teams, right,
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: It wasn't the offensives fault, it wasn't the defensive fault.
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: It really was their special team's fault. And I view
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: it as I'm just playing the number here. I get
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: all that other noise, but you can get three and
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: a half right now in New England as well, Like
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: there's a couple of books out there and a half.
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: How do I not take that's that's just too too
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: much for this Tennessee team that I mean, we can
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: go back through a chad We've had so many weeks.
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: We avoided this because we didn't like the nine line
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: with Tennessee, where you know, I think they are like
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: two and a half point favorites or they are three
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: point favorites, and it's like it didn't really make sense
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: and we just stayed away from it and they end
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: up getting like blown out or they lose those games.
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: So I had the same view here. It's like the books.
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: The professionals for some reason all year have liked this
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: Tennessee team, have respected this Tennessee team, and I'm just
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: not there. So another game, this is three and a
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: half in our contest the dogs this week. This is
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: one of the dogs. I like, I would not be
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: shocked at me and you put this in our contest.
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: It's just too many points for a Tennessee team that
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: if they won by three, I think that'd be a
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: great game from Tennessee. And on the flip side of
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: the Patriots team, as bad as they've been this year,
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: they've been much better than Tennessee. Like they rarely do
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: get blown out. They usually do hang into games. Like
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: the only game I can early think of was that
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: Houston game where they really did a dominator from the
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: first snapped to the end of the game. We talked
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: about Houston's a really good team, Like even on the
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: weeks they don't have it all put together. We know
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: once that offense gets rolled that they're pretty unstoppable. Sam
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: can go for you know, a bunch of teams that
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: Tennessee's played this year, but overall, to me, Tennessee has
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: just struggled, especially against bad teams this year. And you know,
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: it's just it's to me another coaching game where either
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: side of the ball, I don't trust the coaches on
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: either side. I don't know if you have the same
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: feeling here, but it's really just about the spread. And
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: you know, it would be great if it was Brussette,
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: but I wouldn't let Drake May being in there throwing
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: me totally off. There's things he can do that Brusett
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: can't do that I actually like about Brussette. So yeah,
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: that's This is a tricky number right now because we
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: don't have a lot of info and the injuries with
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: both sides, But three and a half I'll grab that
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: right now just in case it does go back down
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: to three to two and a half?
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: Right, Is it gonna be? Will Levis? Is it gonna be? Yeah,
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: Drake May. I just keep thinking of an image of
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: Ryan Callahan just clapping into the void, like trying to
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: maintain some enthusiasm on Sunday against the Lions and it's
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: just I feel for these guys.
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: I do.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: I do because like your dream in any profession, your
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: dream is for a lot of people get to the top,
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: be able to run something in your profession, you believe
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: you can do it better than the person who's doing it.
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: Where you're at, You've got ideas about how you want
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: to run it, how you're going to treat the people
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: on your team, how you're going to manage creatively. And
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: these jobs don't come up that often, and then you
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: got to take it. And you're taking the freaking Titans job. Yeah,
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: he's got Will Levice and a deconstructed roster and now
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: they're buyer sailing in the middle of the season, or
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: you're taking the Panther's job. We'll get to that game
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: into Saints, and it's just it's freaking devastating.
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: Really, it's like the old saying, no, there's only thirty
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: two of these jobs in the world. But it's like, yeah,
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: but you don't need to take one of the thirty
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: two jobs in the world. You can be patient, you
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: don't have to take these jobs.
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: Well, look at Ben Johnson right with the line, he's
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: nailing it. He's like assiduously avoided taking the first job
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: that comes along, even to his detriment, maybe in the
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: head coaching search along the way. But then again, you
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: keep firing up an offense, you keep getting your team
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: closer and closer to the Super Bowl. They're not gonna care.
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: You're gonna have your pick New Orleans at Carolina. Carolina
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: is a seven point home underdog.
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: Listen, Saints or nothing.
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: I mean, thank god you said that.
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: Well, Honestly, me and Matt Mitchell joking last week, Chad,
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: I told him, I've just been putting the Panthers in
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: my contest just since that whatever I think it was,
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: the Bengals game was my last time I gave the
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: Carolina Panthers a chance, and they got rolled in that
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: Bengals game. And I've literally gone to the viewpoint of
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: this guy who just keeps just the record. I just
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: keep saying to myself, he's right. This is the worst
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: team in my lifetime I can remember. Honestly, I think
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: this team is worse than the zero to sixteen Lions
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: team from years ago. Like that team at least covered
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: with Dania Rolaski because they were undervalued in the market
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: and they would just lose. These funky, weird games under
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: the games right, it was just really about a bad
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: team with bad coaching that was unlucky. This is not
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: an unlucky team in the Panthers. This is simply a
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: bad team with bad coaching that I've had horrible injury luck.
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: That was the only thing I think they've had is
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: really bad injury luck. Like their best defenders have gotten
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: hurt ave injuries to the offensive line. I mean last
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: week they are basically down to their three and four receiver,
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: which is already a team that they're one and two's
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: aren't one and twos. So it's just all bad for
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: Carolina and Chad knows how hard this when we do
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: because I love home divisional dogs. I love them, but
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: this ain't one of them. Like, this is not the
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: time to take this Panthers team, especially with Derek Carr
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: coming back, so a game I might force it in.
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: There's other favorites I do like more than this. But
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: if this is six and a half in contest, how
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: do we not take it? Who are this Panthers team
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: to be catching this Logan number? Like again, I think
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: the books they've adjusted this year right where Okay, maybe
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: the Broncos. You know, four years ago should have been
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: plus ten against this Ravens team, this Panthers team. This
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: should be like a thirteen spread. They've not adjusted at
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: all this season to this team. Like every week I
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: keep thinking we're gonna see some huge, massive spread. Even
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: last week, I think they opened at ninth against the Broncos.
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: Then once all the injury news came out, you know,
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: Andy Dalton getting her and everything like that, it moved
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: up to eleven and a half, and for some reason,
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: my stupid fucking brain, I was like, oh, well, now
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: the value's gone. I liked that nine and a half.
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: Now I don't like it eleven and a half, as
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: if that matters with this team. I think they lost
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: by whatever it was, fourteen. They're just terrible in every way,
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: So I like it. I like New Orleans now Derek
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: Carr back, just because I think this is a spark
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: this team needs after such dreadful QB play, Like you
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: could just see this getting this team back around, and
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: this is the perfect game for them to get right.
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, they put up what fifty points the first
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: time they played against each other. Obviously this is not
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: the same team, right, They've had major injuries to the
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: Saints team, but at the same time, some of the
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: Panthers they've only gotten much worse since that Week one.
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: So yeah, it's rare for me to take a huge
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: favorite on the road, a divisional game like this, But
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: that's how bad this Panthers team is right now.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: Home division dogs this year by the way, six ten
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: and one last two seasons since the beginning of twenty
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: twenty three. Uh against the spreads. So not like, not
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: terrible to take a road division favorite. Andy Delton's status
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: still to be determined. Derek Carr, Like you said, we'll
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: be back enough set about this game, like we're not.
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: We're not gonna get crazy Dallas at Atlanta. This is
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: a tricky game, very very tricky game. Like I want
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: to be on the Cowboys here. It feels it feels
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: very trappy to bet the falcon Remember last week when
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: I was all over the Bengals at minus two, minus
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: two and a half and you kept trying to warn me,
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: and I'm like, now, come on, this is this is
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: the way to go here, Like it's not the exact same,
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: but the number is the same. The Cowboys they're not
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: a good team and Dak looks terrible. Actually, you know,
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: we called him mal Santa and convinced me this week
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: because Kerner had him at under seven and a half
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: rushing yards because he just doesn't leave the pocket, and
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: you could see it on plays negative one rushing yard,
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: but two and a half Like this Falcons stem there's
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: something that's like, there's something not quite right about them.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: They're top three in the offense in the NFL. That's
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: mainly because Kirk Cousins has played the Bucks twice and
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: thrown for a million yards and seven hundred touchdowns. Right,
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: So it's either to me Cowboys or nothing. It feels
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: pretty well lined right now.
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm on the other side. I do like a
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: landing here. It's just because I agree with you. The
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: Cowboys just they seem lost right now, not just because
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: of all the injuries, but it's the coaching too. I mean,
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: you're up whatever that was. I feel like it was
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: ten to six whatever the number score was on the
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: road against the forty nine ers, and then you give
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: up twenty one straight in the third quarter, like they
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: got completely blown out against that foreign I as seeing
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: that third quarter and it was just all it's all
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: about the adjustments like Foreign Iris made great adjustments. You
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: came out. I think Dak threw a pick on his
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: first possession in that second half, and it's just like
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: you said to me, I tried to fall back too
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: much because he is he is putting it all on
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: his shoulders and this, you know, Jerry Jones. I feel
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: like they're all failing Dak right now, a guy who
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: they just gave all that money to in a bunch
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: of different ways. But uh yeah, the Atlanta one is
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: interesting because last week again we didn't put it in.
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: I like Atlanta's side. The professionals love the Bucks, Like
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: that number got up to three and then went all
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: the way down to one right before kickoff, like big
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: money came in on that Bucks team. For what Chad
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: just talked about. People just do not trust this Falcons team.
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: A lot of the stuff they do this year is fluky.
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: They're inconsistent. Their defense as your defense, their defense.
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: That's that is why it's not about their offense. Like
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins is playing great, Kyle Pitts is actually looking
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: like the guy that they spent the final overall pick on,
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: Like Bijon is running people over and duking people at
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: the same time, like Darryl Mooney looks amazing, right, but
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: their defense is like they not get to the quarterback.
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: No, and that that's gonna be obviously a bonus is
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: this Dallas team. And I wanted to be on Dallas
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: because they're obviously gonna be more desperate team here. But
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: I'm sadly I've ended up on the Falcons here just
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: because of the number I make this number three. It's
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: two and a half, so I'm gonna end up taking
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: the Falcons. But this game, like I wouldn't bet it
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: a lot of money on it, just because it feels
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: like just seeing that I had the feeling with the
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: buck seam, whoever the ball last is gonna win this game, right,
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: It's gonna be a close, close game just because neither
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: defense is good, right they they neither defense can close
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: games out. So that that's the thing here where it's like,
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: all right, I have other games I like more to bet,
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: but Chad's right where his initial thought of the Cowboys,
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: I think most professionals are gonna come into the Cowboys.
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: So I'm not rushing to bet this a landa number
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: right now, but that that right now, is the side
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: I'm showing value on.
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: Unfortunately, I don't want to say you fool the way
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: you know, hurt my feelings when I picked the Bengals
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: last week.
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: I'm your friend. I'm trying to I was trying to
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: help you, of Chad.
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: You know what the problem was last week I was
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: not feeling great, Like I.
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: Know, I just can't believe you took a favor the
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: where you had these dogs you loved and there were
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: great picks and you didn't pick them.
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: It was just I actually thought about this this morning,
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: Like last week, we loved the Browns, we loved the Raiders,
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: we loved you loved the Jags. I didn't love the.
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: Colt sell which was again that was a sharp number.
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: That was a shark the Colts. I think I had
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: the Colts that it was my exac decision. I felt
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: not to like double up on my exact decision and
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: my screw roulette and like normally I try to prepare
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: on Thursdays and like, okay, what's my Scoots Roulette pick
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: gonna be? And I'll make notes on it, And for
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: some reason I didn't do it on Thursday. And then
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: I saw Cincinnati and like had circled it and like
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: I just loved Joe Burrows so much, we all did
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: him so much. I got I got caught, I got got,
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: I got got. As they say, all right, I mentioned
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: at the top of the show that we are coming
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• 33:37
  Speaker 1: Miami at Buffalo, Buffalo's a six and a half point favorite.
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: I loved it on Sunday night when it was at six.
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: I bet it at six. You can see that in
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: the Action Network app too. It is two and ten
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: straight up, three eight and one against the spread, away
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: from home versus winning teams. In his NFL career year
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: before this season begins, Evan Abrams director of research. Everyone
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: loves him. He gives like massive packets. If you read
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: his story on a weekly basis, you can see all
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: the day to the has So he gives all this
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: information on quarterbacks, coaches, teams, trends, and then I'll like
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: make my notes and I'll pull them aside and I'll
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: make my own little packets for individual things. So I
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: have been waiting for two way to go to the
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: Bills so we could talk about this game because he's
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: been especially bad against the Bills. Oh and seven straight
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: up one and six versus Josh Allen. I just have
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: no reason not to bet the Bills here.
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: I will never forget we had a cover where basically
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: the Bills I'll gain the Miami by like three hundred
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: yards in Miami. I mean you still covered that Miami bet.
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: So I am shocked they didn't win that game as well.
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: But this is we had this one circle. I didn't
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: care if the professionals are coming on Miami and that
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: they were going to try to bully us again this week.
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: There is no way this isn't one of our five.
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: Like I love this favorite, I bet this favorite. I
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: will have this in a ton of teasers. I am
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: happy to lose money on this type of bet just
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: because Josh Allen has been so good to me in
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: these type of spots, in this exact kind of game
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: where it's his team first, a bad team. That's I
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: get it. They're desperate. This is for their season, Josh Allen,
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: coming off a huge road win, you expect them to
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: have a let down game. I don't think so. I
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: think they view this as a divisional game with a
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: team they do not like, and a game they know.
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: If they win this, they basically close out their division
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: for the most part midway through this season. I mean,
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: they're about to close out their division on whatever it
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: is November third, November seven, which has just got to
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: be the greatest feeling ever as a fan. So yeah,
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: I love this for the Bills. It's a statement game.
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: It's a great number right now, especially a couple of
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: books showing six still. I mean, I love that. Maybe
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: me and you will get lucky and we'll get a
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: five and a half come Thursday in our contest with
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: just be an absolute gift. So yeah, the matchup wise,
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: there are ways that Miami can attack this Bill's defense.
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: We've seen that the Bills defense does have some weaknesses,
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: but overall, offensively, I love this matchup for the Bills,
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: Like I just I can't see them punting more than
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: them twice in this entire game. Like there's just so
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: many ways for them to attack it and we've seen
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: it time and time again. Like even going back to
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: that game they played earlier in the year. Sure was
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: a little fluky, right because two had those really bad
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: turnovers and then got banged up, But they were again
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: donating a bunch of different ways in that game, like
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: they're forcing to in no uncomfortable positions because they've just
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: seen that offense so many times at this point, right.
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: I Mean that's the thing withou be in the same division,
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: and there is no defense for Josh Allen. Like when
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: Josh Allen's on, you can't beat him. And he did't
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: even had that grave of a game last week. It
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: was really about this new identity right with Joe Brady,
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: and they can run the ball down your throat, which
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: is what they could do here against this Miami team.
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: So yeah, you know they got Cook Ray Davis, whoever
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: it is the running back on this team right now,
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: it doesn't matter, right as long as you have Josh
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: Allen back there, and that counts for another defender in
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: the box. It has to watch Josh Allen. That's always
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: gonna be advantage to the running back. So yeah, clearly
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: people can tell I love this matchup with this Bill's team.
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: I'm on this number, Simon, I'm making it my executive decision.
• 37:16
  Speaker 3: There you go, the choice between the unthinkable and the impossible.
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: Are your execute number executive decision.
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: In two games this year, two has played you know,
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: two and a half games, one of those games against
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: the Bills when he got knocked out. He has struggled
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: to barely beat the Jags, not a very good team,
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: and lost to the Cards, a mediocre team. To me,
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: that makes the Dolphins a middling to not very good team. Yeah,
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: and the Bills dominate middling to not very good teams.
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: They are not a team that plays down to their opponent.
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: Even when they are losing in the first half, they
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: find a way to get on that street and they
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: go four five scores in the second half. A bigger
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: ish number just does not worry me. With Josh Allen.
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: Now, we talk luck all the time. We will need
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: to get unlucky to not cover this number. Honestly, like,
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: we would need josh On to have two turnovers and
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: to have the game of his life for us not
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: to cover this number. Just that's how much I think
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: of the MISMATCHSS is for the Bills of Miami team.
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: All right, exec decision is in Buffalo Bills. I liked
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: it a minus six six and a half Los Angeles
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: Chargers at the Cleveland Browns. This one has come down
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: a lot since the games ended on Sunday night. It
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: was Cleveland, it was the Chargers minus three and a half,
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: now down to two. Yeah, more money on the Browns
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: than she gets, which is interesting to me. This to
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: me feels like in overreaction to the Browns, like people
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: are either deciding, Okay, the Browns are finally going to
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: be the Browns that we expect them to be. Their
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: defense is getting healthy, they're going to be dominant, and
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: Jamis is going to play the way Kevin Stefanski, who
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: I think is a great coach and has just gotten
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: kind of screwed with this Deshaun Watson bullshit. He finally
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: gets a guy who's closer to what he needs. I'm
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: going to go back to two plays Jamis fumble from
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: a sack late in the first half gives the Ravens
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: the lead ten to six. In that game, Jamis overthrowing
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: receiver Kyle Hamilton, just dropping the ball that would have
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: ended the Browns chances to win that game. I am
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: worried I will get that Jamis in any closer game.
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I can afford those kind of mistakes.
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think a professional early money, though, was smart.
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: It was the right side. They should have taken Jamis
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: as a three point dog or a three and a
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: half point dog at home against his Chargers team. That
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: I agree with you. Their whole identity is we wait
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: for you to make the mistick and that's how we win.
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: Like they just they don't make the mistakes. They hang
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: in these games, these ugly games, and then eventually they
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: get you because they have a great running attack and Herbert,
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: do we know, is one of the better quarterbacks in
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: the league. He's just inconsistent. But this year they can
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: hide that. With a great running offense. You don't need Joe,
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: you know, justin Herbert to be a top five guy
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: right now. That's the Chargers' identity is like, okay, we
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: don't need to have the ball in this guy's hands
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: all the time. We can rely on other guys and
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a little bit of gimmick, right,
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: A lot of their offense because they don't have great receivers,
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: It's a lot of gimmick offense, a lot of motion,
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: a lot of just trying to get their third tight
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: end wide open for five yard completion. Like that's what
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: their identity has been and it's been working. So you're
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: right to me that the numbers come down enough now
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: where I could be on this Charger side, But I'm
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: not in a rush to bet it. I think the
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: public will keep coming in with the professionals on this
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: Cleveland side, just because these are pretty honestly, pretty evenly
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: matched teams. Chad, Like, when I break this down, you know,
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: I have this number at Chargers minus one, So right
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: now I am showing value on the Browns. But you
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: just nailed it. I feel like I got away with
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: them last week with James, Like there was just a
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: couple of plays, like you said, and that was the
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: best game we could get from Jamis. He threw for
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: over three hundred yards. He was just locked in in
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: that second half, and you know that dropped by Cole Hamilton.
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: That that's why our money line hit on this Browns team,
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: like they should not have won that game. The guy
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: literally caught that three different times. He caught it three
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: different times and still somehow dropped it. So you're right,
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: Like I got to put my biases as side because
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: I do want to take the Browns here. It's like,
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: I feel like they have a whole new rujuvenation here
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: and they know they can kind of not get their
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: season back, but they can like there is a path
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: for them to somehow get to a wild card, and
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: to get there they have to win this game. So
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: you know, I wanted to be on the Browns, but
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: You're right, the numbers probably moved too, even though I'm
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: still showing value on the Browns here. It's it's gonna
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: hit up pointhere. It's like I'm gonna feel more confident
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: comfortable taking the Chargers team. So I'll just be patient here,
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: wait for this number to keep coming down. I'll take
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: the Chargers team that makes you make mistakes, and this
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: is the perfect opportunity for them to play against a
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: team with Jamis Winston.
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: I'm glad you say that because in the notes here,
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: I wrote at this point, I'm starting to lean Chargers,
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: like I haven't bet it yet, but I look at
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: the Chargers and I just feel like they're competent. You know,
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: they're not making the game changing mistakes. They're winning the
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: games they're supposed to win. Don't listen, mcconkis.
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: But if they're the type of team too, if they
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: get down ten here, you know they're dead. Yeah, okay,
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: but I.
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: Think it's I think it'd be really hard for them
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: to get down ten.
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: The Ravens defense and the Ravens secondary is the perfect
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: antidote to Jamis wins in craziness, you know, like he
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: can look great against the secondary like that. I don't
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: think that it'll be the same outcome playing against the
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: Chargers defense. So I'm leaning Chargers. But we're not there yet.
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: They're not there yet, So it was a simon, says Washington.
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: And the New York Giants another dreadful performance last night
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: against the Steelers. They were six six and a half
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: point dogs. Every model, every trend, everything said take the Giants,
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: Take the Giants, Take the Giants. I was waiting on
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: that game because I felt like it was going to
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: get back to six and a half, so I hadn't
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: bet it. And then my wife and I took our
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: son out to dinner, and dinner went much longer than
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: I expected, and so I just forgot about the game
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: like we were at dinner. So I never bet it.
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: And I'm like, thank freaking God, because that would have
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: been an excruciating game to bet. Wow. I know you
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: talked about wanting to be on the Giants on Sunday night.
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: God Andrew Thomas is not playing. The home Dogs are
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: terrible this year. The Giants continue to look like during
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: a free fall. Explain to me, just tell.
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: Me, yeah, And I shocked in the eye. It's rare
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: that I don't watch a football game, but I basically
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: took Pittsburgh's money line whatever it was, say it was
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: minus two fifty, and I go, all right, I have
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: zero interest watching this game. I'm just gonna watch the
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: World Series. And even though the World Series game wasn't great,
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: I'm so happy I watched it rather than watching this game,
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: just because I think at halftime it was nine to
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: nine and there was like three different touchdowns were called
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: back on on weird penalties and a bunch of different stuff,
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: and I just that game. I can't believe that Giants
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: didn't honestly cover, like they had the ball at end
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: of the game, they're driving to score the back door
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: cover and of course Daniel Jones throws an interception because
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: it is Daniel Jones. So I'm with you. Like we've
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: talked about this year, the bad teams are bad. They
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: are just really bad right now. And if this was
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: three four years ago, Chad, this would be a no brainer.
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: Hammer this commanders off of Hell Mary now on the
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: road in a divisional game against a team that once
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: again did not cover. You're right, It's like, you know,
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: this is not for the faint of heart. This is
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: this is what the professionals do. This is what I do.
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: I have to take this number, so I'm not going
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: to force it in. There's another game I like more
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: that I'm gonna try to force it on you, but
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: this is not the one. But I will see it
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: come Thursday if you've come around on this one. But
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: it's like, this is how I make my living these
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: type of games. This is such an incredible spot to
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: fade this commander's team, especially where Daniel Jones only plays
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: good against one team. Me and you joke about this,
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: it's the damn truth. If you go through his history,
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: it's the Commanders, like he plays well against them. Those
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: matter if it's on the road at home. The Giants
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: historically matchup well with the Commanders as well, not just
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: defensively but offensively as well. So there's a lot to
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: like here. But I get where you're coming from. They're
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: just they're so bad right now, this Giants team. And
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: I think though you saw it last that game against Pittsburgh,
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: they did make adjustments for being down key guys in
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: the offensive line, right, I mean, as great as CJ.
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: Watt is, they kind of neutralized them in that game. Right.
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: They kept going away from him to the other side,
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: and anytime they knew he was gonna come up field,
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: they put a tight end out there, block him down,
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: then just run right through that huge gaping hole that
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: TJ was giving up. So I do think, you know,
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: they do have some great coach and the Giants that
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: they can make these adjustments. But the biggest one is
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: just I want to fade this Washington team so bad. Chat,
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: it's just they got so lucky last week. I know
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: people think the Bears got lucky. Even though they had
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: a walk in touchdown, they fumbled at the one and
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: then drove the field again and scored another touchdown. People
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: are like, oh, you guys were just lucky to even
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: be in that position. Were we Were we the lucky
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: ones being on Chicago? Or should they have been up
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: twenty one to twelve at the end of that game?
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: So I'm not better. People can tell I'm not better
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: at all. But yeah, there's a hard one for me
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: because I really want to fade this Commander's team, but
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to force our listeners to take these
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: shitty divisional dogs just because I historically love this spot.
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: Wait, the Bears lost that game against the Commanders because
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: I blacked out in the final twenty three seconds of
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: the game.
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: Smart man, keep looking forward, So I.
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: Don't know what you're talking about. I have no memory
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: of that whatsoever. I think you can actually see the
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: blackout happening live if you go through and look for
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: our question.
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: Well, my favorite thing is people that watched that video,
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: they were like, They're like, there's no way Simon Bett's
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: real money on this games. Look how he'd barely even reacted.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: If you really lost a ton of money, you'd be
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: so much more upset. That was even the worst thing
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: that happened to me this past week. People were subset
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: and overreact to it. It's just like guys, I've seen
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: it all. I mean, it brought back a memory my
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: worst bet. I didn't want to bring it up to
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: you on Sunday night, but to me, are still worst
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: bet ever. Even that was awful. Was one time me
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: and Chad had the Cardinals minus two and a half
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: and they threw a hell Mary pass. They won the game,
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: and Chad called me up to celebrate. I said, well,
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: they didn't kick the extra point yet, we haven't covered anything,
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: and they kneeled. You remember this, every was gonna kneeled
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: the ball down, didn't kick the extra point, and me
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: and him lost by half a point. To me, that's
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: still even though this was terrible, that forever was why
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: I was just forever burned by this whole thing with
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: you know, just been the two and a half. It's
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: such a key number.
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: I do remember, having now known professional betters for twenty
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: five years, I don't know any betters who freak out
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: when they lose a big game. And I don't know
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: any betters who freak out when they win a big game.
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: Like when I was freaking out, I was freaking out
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: as a fan, not as someone who had the game right,
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: Like I could give a shit about the bet I made.
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: I just was like apoplectic that this team that I love,
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: that I invest so much energy in that I am
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: like growing more and more attached to as I get
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: older and I have no kids in the house soon
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: to be anymore, Like you know, you have memories of them,
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: and it's like a connection and it keeps me connected
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: to friends and family and like it's something we talk about.
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: So I just want them to do well. I've been
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: with betters when they win one hundred thousand dollars. You
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: know what they do, They put the money back in play.
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: That reaction is how professionals react to those type of things.
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: It's just another day, another day at the fucking office
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: losing that type of bet I.
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: Don't mind the defensive line of the Giants against Jadan Daniels,
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: like the Bears have a similar passage, similar coverage capabilities,
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: and Daniels had a pretty terrible game except for that
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: one career defining play, So I don't hate this I
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: understand all the logic. I just worry about the trend
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: right now with backing bad quarterbacks on bad teams is
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: not in our favorite.
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: I'm with you, it's not fun. This is not a
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: little better.
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: It was a little better last week, right, Jags.
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: We went three and oh technically.
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: Backs Colts, but four no Jags, Colts, Brown's Raiders, Like
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: the Raiders weren't in the contest, but we were on them.
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: So it's coming back our way with the record. This
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: is likely to be a luck rankings game favoring the
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: Giants definitely. All right, Chicago at Arizona. We talked about
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: the Bears. You can actually track the change in the
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: line in the action app with the end of the
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: Bears game last night. End of the Bears game two
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: nights ago, the Cars were one point dogs at six
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: forty six, when the Bears were still down twelve to nothing.
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: At seven pm, they were half point dogs. At seven
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: thirty pm, the Bears were one point the Cars were
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: one point favorites, and at seven thirty four, about when
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: the Bears scored the goal had touchdown, there were one
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: point dogs again. As soon as the game ended, the
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: Cars were favorites. Again, this is a pros Joe's game
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: right now with the pros on the Bears. So their defense,
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: despite the hail mayor of fiasco, it's really good oppression
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: in the quarterback, really good in the red zone.
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Bears are the better team. They should be favored
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: in this game. I want nothing to do with this game.
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: I want to see how the Bears team reacts to
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: that type of thing we already talked about. This is
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: either gonna rail their season or this is gonna make
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: their season. They're gonna be in a wildcard team and
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: like that, that's a defining game, sopecially for Kayleb Williams,
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: where I don't know if you saw the video of
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: him into that game. Not the best look, but again,
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: he's a young kid who's gonna have to learn how
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: to lose in life. Like he's been a winner his
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: whole life. I guess he did lose a little bit
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: at USC, but overall he's just the guy who always wins,
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: and now we have to see how he can handle
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: these brutal losses because you know, as a Bears fan,
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: this is just the beginning. Brother, It's like that meme
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: first time, Like he's got to get used to this.
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: The Bears are suffering franchise. They have losses like this,
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: It's just how it is with this team. Certain teams
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: are just built this way. And Arison on the flip side,
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: how do they handle winning two straight Chad like this
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: is a team now in total control of this division.
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: If they if they can win this game and keep
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: it going, who's this say they can't win this division
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: like they do. You know, we and you talked before
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: the year. We loved Kyler and the talent they surrendered
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: with an offense. Our question was their defense, which still
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: is pretty bad. So matchup wise, the Bears should be favorite.
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: The professional money should be coming on them because they're
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: not like me and you. They're not getting drowned into this.
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: How these teams can react to this. So they're just
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: simply playing their model, and the model is going to
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: say the Bears are the better team. They should probably
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: be minus two minus two and a half on this
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: Bears team. But yeah, I'm too close this one. I
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: want to take Arizona, but I'm just going to stay
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: away from this game. I'll probably en up betting Arizona
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: if it does get up to Tube. But right now.
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: I have no role read on this one.
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: That's interesting. I thought, like my instinct immediately bet the Bears.
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: I had no concerns with that whatsoever. And it's not
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: because I think eber Flus is a great coach, you know.
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: I think the Bears should have let him go and
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: they should have given Caleb, you know, some stability with
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: a coach who they believed would be there for several years.
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to be pushing him out after one
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: bad year because he's already proven he can't do it.
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: I just feel like it's a it's a good spot,
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: like the Bears should not be underdogs in this game.
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: If it got to Bears plus two, I would be
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: very comfortable playing the Bears as underdogs.
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: Jags at Philly, you were leading Jags. Jags are seven
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: and a half point underdogs, you were leaning Jags on
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: Sunday Night.
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: How come I just got through the numbers too big?
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: And then I found out that basically the whole Jaguars
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: where I receiving corps is just gone. You know. Christian
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: Kirk done, my guy, Brian Thompson Jr. My miss two
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: to four weeks. That reflects this line and the movement
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: like this, to me, the number is gonna be too big.
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: And now it's like, okay, this actually makes perfect sense
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: now because you know Trevor Lawrence, as bad as he's been,
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: he does have some great He did have some great
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: weapons on the outside, and a lot of that has
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: been on him. He's even said it so himself. He's
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: been inconsistent this year. Then they gotta have Ingram's back,
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: which is a huge deal. This tight end is just
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: a monster, and you know Trevor Lawrence knows how to
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: throw to them. It's like, all right, put the ball
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: up higher than anyone else. Van Ingram's incredible at high
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: points in the ball. I don't know if Eva's going
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: to make up for them losing their number one, number
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: two receiver though, And that that to me is what
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: stand out here. So a game I'm happy to avoid
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: now because it's so big. If you want to tease
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: the Eagles, I'll tease them with you, like this is
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: a good teaser number. Eagles are gonna win this game.
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: I just could see with this Jacks team keeping it close.
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: Because this Eagles team, I mean, last week was a
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: breakaway from the norm. They actually blew a team out,
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: but they have not been that team. And a couple
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: of professionals view is this is that this Eagles team
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: they went to that bye week, you know, Fangs made
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: adjustment to the defense. The guys seem like they got
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: more comfortable. These rookies have been playing better for the
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: Eagles defensively and the just everyone seems like they know
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: that system more and then offensively, Kurts has not turned
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: the ball over. That's been the difference for them, right,
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: He's not making the stupid turnovers. When he does throw
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: fifty to fifty balls downfield, it's fit fifty fifty where
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: his guy's gonna catch it or no one's catching it. Right.
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: He's kind of figured out what he needs to be
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: this season, and they're the number two team right now
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: in the NFL and rushing obviously, the Ravens are way
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: ahead of them. They're ahead of everyone. They've been incredible
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: running the ball, but we've seen Saquan and Hurtz have
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: kind of figured this thing out, right, They've really figured
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: out how to run it with both these guys, and
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: this is a nice matchup first Aquon against this team
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: and the Jaguars that cannot stop the run. So I
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: get why this numbers moved up so much, and I'm
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: happy to pass on the chat. It's just I have
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: no faith betting the Jaguars again, like you said last week.
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: Kind of got away with them last week, so I'm
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: not trying to roll the dice once again on this
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: Jaguars team.
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: And by the way, none of us are immune for
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: mistakes in our very limited PTI segment earlier today, I
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: said Darryl Mooney, I meant Darniel Mooney. Simon just said
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: Brian Thompson. He meant Brian Thomas, receiver for the Jacks.
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: The La Rams at Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night. You
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: loved the Rams at plus one and a half. It
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: almost immediately moved to Rams plus one, and then they
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: were favorites pretty quickly after that. It has bounced around.
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: Some books have the Rams as dogs right now, others
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: have them as faves. The pro seem to be on
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks right now. Teams coming off a loss of
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: three touchdowns or more the following week fifty six percent
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: against the spread since twenty eighteen. Do we still love
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: the Rams here?
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: Still love them? I'd still bet them because it's under
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: the key number, which you always talk about two. So
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: right now the highest I'm seeing in Los Angeles minus
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: one and a half at a couple books still love
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: the Rams. I just don't think the books have updated
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: their line enough to having Pooka and Cooper cup back
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: to me, they didn't adjust to it last week, they
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: haven't adjust to it this week week as well, So
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: I'm still getting value here. And I don't think they've
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: downgraded the Seahawks team enough where you know, coming too
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: the year, people thought they were gonna be much better
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: defensively just because of the head coaching higher and then
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: another year of Geno in this offense should be better.
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: Gino has been passing, has incredible passing yards, but he
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: struggled in the red zone this season. Defensively, this is
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: a team that just can't stop the run. And you know,
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: as much you want to talk about how great the
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: Rams are through the air, their whole identities built through
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: the run and everything they do is predicated off of that.
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: So unless there's some bad weather coming into this one,
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: and I'm missing this right now because so early in
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: the week, how do you not love the Rams to
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: be able to move the ball against them, like the
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: weapons they have. I think we both agree that Vikings
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: defense is much better than that Seahawks defense, and especially
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: all the exotic blicks packages that the Vikings defense did,
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: all the different looks they can give you. The Stafford's
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: don't mean to it. He's seen it all. That's why
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: I talked about I think better in quarterbacks had a
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: huge advantage playing against that Vikings team. Guys who have
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: seen it all. They don't get flustered by those type
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: of looks. Sam, you can go for the Seahawks. I
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: don't know what the Seahawks defense can do attack wise
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: to stop this offense in the LA and the flip side.
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: This Rams team, I mean, Aaron Donald was a huge loss.
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: Their front four has actually been pretty good this year,
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: Like they're not that terrible that people thought they were
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: going to be coming to the season. Like their real
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: weaknesses their young secondary. But I think the Seahawks are
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: still gonna bebout DK Metcalf, which we saw last week
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: was a big deal. Like there was a noticeable difference
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: of them not being able to tack the ball downfield
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: and the Bills instead of having to have both safeties back.
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: They only only had to have one drop back and
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: they could stack the box against Keneth Walker, which is
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: a big deal. Like the Seahawks want to feed him,
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: they want to run the ball. When you take that
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: away and put on Gino, we see that that just
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: doesn't work. He's not that type of quarterback. So still
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: like this number, it's still under two. I'll still bet
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: the Rams, obviously. I hope everyone listens Sunday night because
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: it's just it's nice you get the plus one and
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: a half. It's such a key number, especially with this
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: Rams team.
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, everything you're saying makes total sense. I think we
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: asked ourselves last week. We thought the Bills Seahawks was
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: a statement game for the Seahawks in that are they
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: going to to be defined as a good team or
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: a mediocre team? And the Bills, We've said they struggle
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: against the good teams, and they dominate the mediocre teams.
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: And they dominated. They dominated so badly that the Seahawks
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: were fighting with each other on the sidelines. So the
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: Rams are steady, their veteran they have a really good offense.
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: It's the turning point of their season, right, don't you
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: feel the same way, it's the turning point of their season.
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford doesn't get rattled like you said. We love Stafford,
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: We've loved Kyrine Williams. Kyron Williams. Between the tackles is
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: really really good. So yeah, I think we still like
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: the Rams. Rams are on the list. Rams are on
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: the list this week.
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: People are all our favorite see we can change.
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah right, well, the Rems they may be dogs like
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: we don't know yet, that's true. Detroit a green Bay
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: we haven't had, as Simon says, yet Detroit a green Bay.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: Green Bay is plus three and a half. Obviously. Jordan
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: Love is the question here. He's day to day with
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: a grin growing injury. Shout out Sam Malone to all
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: the old heads out there.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 3: My guy like me who knows what it's like to
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 3: have it grownn.
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: If not for that, we would want to bet green Bay.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: Perfect fates bought for the Lions. They just dropped fifty two,
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: one of the two best teams in the NFL, the
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: best ATS team in a generation. They're outside, which isn't
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: a strength for them. The public loves them. Part of
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: me says, we don't even wait for the news on
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: Love like, here we go, maybe we get the Packers
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: at the biggest number we can.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: Simon says, right now, packers plus three and a half.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: Sim says, do it? We say.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: Wow?
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: And honestly, it's because the MRI came back negative this year.
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: As I saw that news, I was just there's no
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: way unless Jordan Love's really that banged up he misses
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: this game. Like people don't understand how insane a competitor
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: a lot of these people are. And Jordan Loves right
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: up there. Whether he is so competitive you think he
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: wants to miss this game where he knows this is
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: going to decide the division, Like this is a must
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: win for Green Bay if they want to win this division,
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: must win. And you nailed it, Detroit. How can we
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: Is there a team we could sell higher on right now?
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: This is like the peak of all peaks, Like they've
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: been incredible. Everything's clicking. They're the best team in football,
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: they have the best offensive football. People know we are
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: not doting that any way. This is the game where
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: Aiden Hudgerson not being there matters. This is the difference.
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: And you know, to me, there's a way to attack
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: this Detroit defense. And that's why I don't mind if
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: it's Malik Willis, because it is the run game. If
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: it is him and they're having to do that read
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: option that he's done so perfectly this season. I mean,
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: whatever little Floor did with this kid, Like we talked
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: about the time, how important coaching is. This right here
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: is the definition of this kid was lost. He was
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: out of the league pretty much. What do you get
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: traded for seventh round pick to Green Bay and he's
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: come in now. I think you can say even last
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: week he counted for that win. He's won them three
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: games this year, which.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: Is just he had a fifty one yard pass on
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: their drive. It's incredible he only threw for fifty six
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: yards in the game.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, cause again the Floor knows that like this guy,
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: either you can scheme it up where he gets people open,
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: or you can just do that read option. He's such
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: a good runner that once he gets in there, it's
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: just their offense takes on a whole different attitude. So
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: I don't care who the quarterback is. I'm making, Sime says,
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: because I do think if Love is cleared by Thursday,
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: I could easily see this number getting down to three
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: and not get off the ski number because, like we
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: talk all the time, there's certain games every week that
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: are trap games. This feels like a trap game, Like
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: the public is going to come in so heavy on
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: this Detroit team without realizing that golf is different outdoors,
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: this team's personality is different outdoors. And how much regression
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: are they do for offensively? Like they can't keep this
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: up statistically, It's impossible to keep doing what they've done.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, me and you have been around long enough,
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: we know all the numbers. Teams just don't do what
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: they do every week. Right. Eventually they do come back
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: down to earth, and this is the perfect prime spot
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: for that. So a nice by low spot on green Bay. Right,
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: Betters are pissed off of them. I think they have
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: the same view as Chad of Like if you had
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: that minus three and a half ticket last week on
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: Green Bay, you were pissed at this team. They should
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: have won that game and every which way. That rookie
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: running back, I think he's a rookie. He laid down
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: instead of walking it in. Right, Jaguars are gonna let
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: him score a walk in touchdown. He was smart enough
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: to lay down. Betters don't think that way. They're pissed off.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: So not only does Detroit have a ton of love
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: from the public side, they probably have some love from
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: professional sides who are a little pissed off of this
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: Green Bay team. And that's where I swoop in. Now
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: I am pissed. This number did get up to four
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: four and a half and a couple of books, and
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: we saw after the Mri Jordan love it moved the
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: whole point. It came back down to this number here
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: at three and a half. So obviously wish we had
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: gotten the best possible number four and a half. I'm
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: still so happy taking this at three and a half.
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: I make this number two and a half, So getting
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: a full point of value, especially it costs two key
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: numbers and this type of matchup, I love this for us,
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: for listeners, it's just this is what this show is
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: built on. Bet in this type of spot here where
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: we know comes Sunday, it's going to be ninety percent
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: of the money, ninety percent of the tickets all on Detroit.
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: The sports books need Green Bay to have a winning day,
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: all that nonsense, But that's the stuff we ling into
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: you because we're getting a free point of value here.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I love green Bay in this spot.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: Your enthusiasm is infectious. I hope the line doesn't move
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: so much before off the air that I can't get
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: this number. But we're green Bay three and a half.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: Simon says, green Bay plus three and a half. Time
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: to fade the boys from Village City, who we love,
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: no disrespect. I think they're going to the super Bowl.
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: We're just riding the waves.
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: Riding the wave Indian Minnesota, Minnesota's six point favorite.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 3: Heads up quick producer's note. This was recorded just before
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 3: Joe Flacco was announced the indie starter for Sunday, so
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 3: it will not be Anthony Richardson. It should be Joe
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 3: Flacco under center. So just be advised during this conversation.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: I don't really have a read on this one yet. No, no,
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: oh my god.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: Gotta love the vikings here. Anthony Richardson against Brian Flores.
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: Holy shit, talk about a mismatch. Terrible, terrible matchup for
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: this Colt team. And it's funny too, because I know
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: some professionals who love the Colts. They've come in on
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: the Colts. They like the number. They think Minnesota is
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: about to go right down the other side of the hill. Right,
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: they rode the hill all the way up. Now they're
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: ready to fade this Minnesota team and come back down
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: their side. So I'm getting a Minnesota team awful loss
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 2: with extra time against a quarterback that has the same
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: completion percentage as who's a Ryan fucking Leaf names you
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: were given out last week and again if you go
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: throw the tape on though, Anthey, Richard is not as
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: bad as people perceive, Like a lot of this stuff
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: is out of his control, but he is bad, Like
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: there is no denying that he is bad. Right now,
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: and me and you talk coming to the year, this
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: is this kid's rookie year. I know it's not to
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: say that on paper, but it is. He just needs
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: more repetition, more starts.
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: Only.
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: That's why people calling for Joe Flacco the cults are
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: not trying to just win this year. They're trying to
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: win for the next ten years. It does no good
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: to s Anthony Richardson. You need him to suffer and
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: go through these reps. This is a game he's gonna
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: need to suffer through. Like I just I can't imagine
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: him trying to deal with everything Brian Floors is gonna
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: throw at him. In this matchup, especially with extra time
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: to prepare. So this number is a number I'm not
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: gonna rush to bet just because I know there are
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: professional smart groups out there coming in on Minnesota, but
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: I mean on the Colts. But if this does dip
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: the five five and a half at any book, I'm
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: gonna grab it right away on Minnesota. I just I
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: like them in this spot, like the number, and like
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: the matchup for them, especially offensively. They can not only
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: run the run the ball down this Colt Steam's throat.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: They're gonna be able to scheme guys open. We know
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: this Colts defense is not that well like no, I
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: mean last week they had guys open. It was just CJ.
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: Not that he was flustered. He was just kind of
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: missing guys right, That was just a game that he
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: wasn't in his best debt. So I know it's it's
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: tough for me to take someone that's such a big
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: favorite in this type of spot. But I am I
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: uncomfortable just because of floor is in this defense.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: See the reason why I had no read on it
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: is because the Colt rush offense is so elite, yeah,
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: so dominant. I worry that they'll just figure out ways
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: to keep the ball out of Richardson's hands, and we.
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: Talk about it's Minnesot's weakness, right running the ball down there. Running.
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: That's that's why I'm sort of like something here, like
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: Minnesota struggling. They're getting exposed a little bit.
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: They are. We we talked. I don't if you're talking
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: about about other guys, but Minnesota. You've probably seen this
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: them on script. Sam Darnold offensively is incredible, right, That's
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: why they've been dominating these first quarters. Once it goes
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: off script, we've seen them kind of struggle now these
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: last couple of weeks. So I get where're coming from
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: with that. But my whole view of is if we
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: can get the Viking scene we've known this year and
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: they get up ten to nothing or fourteen nothing, that
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: to me, that would be game over because by then
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: the Colts would have to ban their run. So you're
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: right for your hesitation here. Obviously, there's other favorites I
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 2: like more. It's just it's rare for me to really
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: like a big favorite like this, and I do like
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: Minnesota in the.
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: Spot Tampa Bay visiting Kansas City. Kansas City is a
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: nine point favorite all I'll say, is I like the
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: Bucks here?
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah? I know. I don't want to do it to
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: our fans, though I don't know if I can do
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: it to them and make them take this one. Because
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: I was getting a lot of messages about the Raider,
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: especially when they were down by fourteen and people are
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: just losing their mind. I just said, be patient, we'll
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: get there. But in the back of mine, I was like,
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: are we gonna get there? I'm banking a lot on
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: Gordon Minshew here to get us there. Sam goes for
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: this Bucks matchup. We know the deal, like they're a
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: totally different team without Mike Evans. We saw it last
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: week and Baker can only do so much. You can
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: only run the ball so much. I throw it to
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: your running backs and tight end so much. So I
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: don't know. Check the number is huge. I'm with you
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: that it's too big. I make it seven. It's eight
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: and a half. So yes, I'll be on the Bucks.
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: But I just I cannot make this one of our five.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: I feel like we're gonna have to discuss it again
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: on Thursday. To me, the big difference, like I don't
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: want to be fooled by what Baker did against the
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: Falcons when they can't get any pressure, and so he
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: has sort of those safety valves to the running backs,
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: to the tight end. Kate Atton had an amazing game.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: The Chiefs defensive backs much better than the Falcons. The
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: Chiefs pressure much much better than the Falcons. They're getting
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: John Uja from the Patriots. So like, there are things
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: that bring me hesitation. So I don't want to get
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: too enthusiastic about the Bucks, but from a number side,
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: it's it's the Bucks or nothing.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: It is. But again, it's another game where if you
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: if you just tease the Chiefs down, I feel like
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: that's just a smarter move.
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: In this one is you know what. I'm not even
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: gonna put it on the list for Thursday. Good it's
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: off the list. We got ten other games we can
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: talk about on Thursday. Simon says, is Green Bay plus
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: three and a half get it before Jordan Love is
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: officially confirmed as playing. Even if he's not, we still
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: like it. We both like it. Exec Decision Buffalo Bills
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: taken onto a in Buffalo minus six if you can
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: get it. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented
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