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Expectations: Pounds and Madubuike · Filmstudy - Baltimore Ravens Talk

0:02
[SPEAKER_00]: I folks, welcome to the episode of Film Study.
0:04
[SPEAKER_00]: This is Ken McCusik, and we continue our expectation series today.
0:08
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm doing this one solo.
0:08
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to talk about Diego Pounds, the offensive linemen, and non-day matted BK.
0:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Of course, the big question mark for the ravens this year.
0:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's start with Diego Pounds.
0:17
[SPEAKER_00]: So, I think this will be a little bit quicker.
0:19
[SPEAKER_00]: An offensive tackle, 18th on my board, the Ravens got him as a UDFA out of Ole Miss.
0:26
[SPEAKER_00]: He played previously at North Carolina for three seasons, last two at Ole Miss.
0:29
[SPEAKER_00]: 6, 6, 3, and a quarter, 33 and 3, 8 to inch arms, a little shy at the left tackle, which is where he played in college, and 24 in December, 5, 15, 40, he had very good jumps and a poor three cone, however, of 7, 90.
0:48
[SPEAKER_00]: and just 21 Ben Shrefs.
0:50
[SPEAKER_00]: One of the things that that really shows up about Diego looking at him can't put a bit is he's a little bit soft for the NFL at this point.
0:56
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not unusual for rookies to come in who have decent enough mobility anyway for the college game, but but aren't really ready.
1:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Don't have the physical strength to play the position and I think that's where he is right now if I had to say
1:10
[SPEAKER_00]: He was 13, all S.E.C.
1:13
[SPEAKER_00]: in 2025, he's vertically built, again I mentioned he's somewhat soft and he played his entire college career at Left Tackle.
1:21
[SPEAKER_00]: I had very solid success by the way as a pass blocker and minimal run blocking success.
1:26
[SPEAKER_00]: When you look at the tape one of the things
1:31
[SPEAKER_00]: not necessarily on a down block and if you look at his highlight tape, you'll see a lot of that.
1:34
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you look at individual games for either North Carolina, if you want to go back to 2023 or in the last couple of years old miss, you'll see a guy who has a hard time maintaining a block and necessarily getting the grip to freeze a line that in place where you'd like him to be.
1:51
[SPEAKER_00]: So a lot of
1:54
[SPEAKER_00]: normal athleticism on his edge can give him trouble particularly in the run game.
1:59
[SPEAKER_00]: So that that was something.
2:01
[SPEAKER_00]: Doesn't have great mobility and the three cone maybe would tell you that.
2:06
[SPEAKER_00]: It is 515-40's actually kind of good for a offensive tackle that can it gets a lot worse from that point.
2:13
[SPEAKER_00]: is a big quick kick step, kick step to his left obviously, when he's coming out of his true pass set.
2:22
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's a true pass set is often when you have a one leg back and one leg forward is the way to think of it and he's very quick at getting out quickly.
2:33
[SPEAKER_00]: that said he doesn't really have the mirror I would say is going to work at the next level.
2:37
[SPEAKER_00]: It was fairly successful in college.
2:39
[SPEAKER_00]: That's why I got you know 13 SEC honors has does have effective hand usage and he lands a fairly heavy punch.
2:48
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not
2:49
[SPEAKER_00]: There's an independent usage of the hands.
2:50
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not a two-flipper pinball player as I've talked about in the past.
2:55
[SPEAKER_00]: It makes up for lack of ideal length by some of that hand-flighting.
3:00
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's by far the asset that he's got.
3:02
[SPEAKER_00]: As an offensive lineman of you, a power punch is what he brings to the table and so you'd have to teach him a lot of the other things.
3:10
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, I don't think his feet are good enough, so as a left tackle, he's probably going to rely on generating a lot of 12 to 6 blocks and when beaten, he may or may not have the foot speed and the quickness to do that the reaction time, and I also think he's probably going to end up at right tackle in the NFL and not left tackle, and I could end up at left tackle on an emergency basis for some team this year.
3:32
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, because, you know, left tackle a trits, and you end up with not a lot of people who can play that position.
3:37
[SPEAKER_00]: So the Cleveland Browns might poach him off the Ravens practice squad and end up putting him there at some point this year.
3:43
[SPEAKER_00]: He does try and get lock out blocks when he generates them.
3:48
[SPEAKER_00]: has some frequency of it at the college level.
3:51
[SPEAKER_00]: It'll be much more difficult to do that when he moves up in class.
3:53
[SPEAKER_00]: The quickness is more the first movement of hands and the likelihood that he's able to get out of a stance and lock in at the armpit or even on the jersey and neck
4:05
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, show what kind of thing are going to be much more difficult at the next level.
4:10
[SPEAKER_00]: So, we'll see how that works out for him.
4:12
[SPEAKER_00]: And I would suspect he'll end up on the Ravens practice squad if he's kept it all as one competitor there.
4:19
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll talk about it a little bit later.
4:22
[SPEAKER_00]: From the run blocking, he's fairly ponderous and lumbering.
4:25
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say as a run blocker, I think that he would be challenged to keep up with NFL counters or was zooned blocking, so you know, this has been talked that the Ravens is going to run a lot more zone this year, about teams run zone and power and, you know, it's a mix of both.
4:40
[SPEAKER_00]: I wouldn't say he's an outstanding asset at either, but in terms of zone blocking, he'll probably have more difficulty staying in the right spacing with the other elephants on parade as they move in one direction of the other.
4:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Stands up with some regularity, that's been a problem with run blocking.
4:59
[SPEAKER_00]: That he has a harder problem, and this is sometimes true with people who are six, six, it's very hard to be the low man in those situations
5:10
[SPEAKER_00]: And he has, with also a moderate length, standing up becomes a bigger problem where players get underneath your pads and you're more likely not only to get beat by a player who has longer arms, but also by a player who has shooter arms.
5:26
[SPEAKER_00]: And already has the better pad level, but he gets now underneath you and you don't have the ability to do something to lock out the technique that you otherwise would like to get done.
5:35
[SPEAKER_00]: He does have an ability, you'll notice if you watch some tape to do half level ceiling and kick out in the power run game, I think if I had to pick one strength in the run game, I think that would be it.
5:46
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you just ask him to simple things, it's not too difficult, I would say, and that moving up kind of off a down block to a half level ceiling off a linebacker kind of thing is something he can certainly handle.
6:00
[SPEAKER_00]: He had two flags in his final season, an old miss that was maybe his biggest plus of the year.
6:04
[SPEAKER_00]: It was a very big improvement from 13 as for 1,578 college snaps.
6:09
[SPEAKER_00]: So that was one of 121.4.
6:11
[SPEAKER_00]: This last year he was one every 539.5 snaps.
6:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, that's a enormous improvement and very important at that position or at any offensive line position, but certainly at left tackle.
6:23
[SPEAKER_00]: All but one step of his college career is that left tackle, including three years as a starter, big developmental project.
6:31
[SPEAKER_00]: So despite being 24 this season, he's probably still a year away from winning an NFL job and I'd say given his physique, he's likely to stay at right tackle as I mentioned earlier.
6:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Now I mentioned his competition on the Ravens is really Jared Lichtenhand, the three of his top tackles, including their backups would be Rosengarten and Stanley and Vincent and Emery Jones will be the backup I believe on the right side.
7:00
[SPEAKER_00]: And that means two of the guys on the roster who are tackles and that's Jared Lichtenhand who is with the team last year still is a year one player as opposed to an R.
7:10
[SPEAKER_00]: and pounds.
7:11
[SPEAKER_00]: So they both had the same amount of team control remaining.
7:14
[SPEAKER_00]: So there's no big advantage for pounds in that situation.
7:19
[SPEAKER_00]: So Jared, I believe it Oregon, is the guy who would be most competing for the top of practice squad spot.
7:29
[SPEAKER_00]: with 16 spots there, it's possible.
7:33
[SPEAKER_00]: The Ravens could carry two offensive tackles, but I think it's unlikely.
7:37
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's more likely they carry two offensive linemen than carry three offensive tackles.
7:45
[SPEAKER_00]: But if they did carry three offensive linemen on the practice squad, it is a possibility that a player like pounds could be retained that way.
7:54
[SPEAKER_00]: He'd be some risk of being taken,
7:59
[SPEAKER_00]: It's tremendously much.
8:00
[SPEAKER_00]: It would have to be a team that liked him and didn't get him during the UDFA process, almost because there's not going to be a new tape of him, the tape that's out there is not super impressive.
8:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Like I said, he's 18th on my offensive tackle board and did not get drafted.
8:21
[SPEAKER_00]: that pounds in his agent look around for another team that has a better opportunity for him, and that could well happen.
8:28
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know,
8:30
[SPEAKER_00]: You know what the glasses have full version, Dwayne Ledford is here and he may be able to create in a scope to player who right now needs some serious scoping and make him do a combination of both an NFL level pass blocker and a much better run blocker and it is a possibility and a lot is being backed on in terms of Dwayne Ledford right now.
8:54
[SPEAKER_00]: I think we'll see during the preseason is that, look at hand and he will play together for the second half of a number of games and so we'll really get an idea and I think we'll see Vincent and Emery Jones in the first half of some of these games and those guys are not in any danger of losing the rest response obviously but they still need some some lifefire reps.
9:17
[SPEAKER_00]: and we should see a fair amount of play from pounds this preseason.
9:23
[SPEAKER_00]: So, it's looking, what is a good season look like for Diego pounds?
9:25
[SPEAKER_00]: I'd say he makes the most of what is likely to be very limited opportunities.
9:30
[SPEAKER_00]: This summer, so it'll be a three if you're looking at camp.
9:33
[SPEAKER_00]: You come to camp.
9:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Offensive line lines up, the number one's and it's generally the starters.
9:37
[SPEAKER_00]: The number two's and it's a top back up.
9:40
[SPEAKER_00]: It's Vincent.
9:41
[SPEAKER_00]: It's it's Andrew Voorhees as it stands right now.
9:44
[SPEAKER_00]: It's Emory Jones at either right guard or right tackle.
9:50
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's it's the numbers it's the guys you would expect to be numbers and then there's the number three and that's kind of everybody else and.
9:57
[SPEAKER_00]: That is where he'll play, I'm sure this summer.
10:00
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think he'll move up unless somebody gets hurt.
10:03
[SPEAKER_00]: And so hopefully make the most of those opportunities this summer play the second half of preseason games and any practice and live fire.
10:15
[SPEAKER_00]: are good.
10:16
[SPEAKER_00]: And on a good season, I'd say he beats out Jared Lichtenhand.
10:20
[SPEAKER_00]: So I don't really think about this one.
10:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Is there a 40% chance that he beats out somebody with another year of experience?
10:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe a little bit more advanced in terms of where he is in the weight room.
10:29
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think there probably is for the top of practice squats bot.
10:32
[SPEAKER_00]: There be four other offensive tackles.
10:34
[SPEAKER_00]: I had them still at that point as I make sure that Stanley Rosengrad and Vincent Jones.
10:38
[SPEAKER_00]: But he stays on the practice quite all season and he's part of the Raven's draft thought process in 2027.
10:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, the Raven's next year have two guys entering the final years of their contract.
10:51
[SPEAKER_00]: It's both their starters, Stanley and Rosegar.
10:56
[SPEAKER_00]: is Vincent ready is going to be one of the big questions.
10:59
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think there's any question, there isn't really from a salary cap perspective that they can actually cut Stanley and obviously Rosengarten's on a cheap early, you know, a rookie deal and there'd be no reason to cut him.
11:10
[SPEAKER_00]: There'll be questions about extension with Rosengarten and I think they'll try and get that done.
11:14
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't anticipate that they're going to try and extend Stanley, but I don't know.
11:18
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it could be the kind of thing that the Stanley has a big year this year, and they suddenly said, okay, you know, two more years.
11:24
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll try that.
11:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Durability has been good the last couple of years, so it is a possibility.
11:30
[SPEAKER_00]: On the other hand, I think if you let Carson Vincent just walk, then you're basically saying,
11:36
[SPEAKER_00]: He wasn't the prospect we hoped he was.
11:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Standing is still playing decent ball.
11:40
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a middle-of-the-pack center in the league.
11:43
[SPEAKER_00]: A sea, I don't grade on the curve, but he's a sea center in this league.
11:47
[SPEAKER_00]: And for the money he's paid, that's okay.
11:50
[SPEAKER_00]: It's how you can't go without a left tackle who can get you through the year.
11:54
[SPEAKER_00]: He got the, he got the,
11:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Ravens through the year durably the last two years something he hasn't been able to do in a long time.
12:01
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that that's important enough that you pay the big money for that.
12:04
[SPEAKER_00]: Now that's said, at least starting in 2028, the Ravens are going to be looking for a lot of money really starting in 2027.
12:13
[SPEAKER_00]: They're significantly underwater on the cap.
12:15
[SPEAKER_00]: And I don't think they're going to have, they're not probably going to be able to afford $20 million or they're about or a C left tackle.
12:25
[SPEAKER_00]: So I really appreciate what Ronnie's done for the organization.
12:28
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's a good bet if he plays these next two years as we hope he would to make the Ravens Ring of Honor.
12:35
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, he's been a fine player and I just think we're nearing the end and he's not been as good.
12:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, anytime since the injury, but he especially, you know, is starting to show signs of age with this last season yet tough here in terms of sex allowed.
12:55
[SPEAKER_00]: But let's get back to Diego Pounds for a second.
12:58
[SPEAKER_00]: A great season for him, he excels in camp in the preseason, and he's elevated to the 53 at some point in the season due to injury.
13:04
[SPEAKER_00]: So Ravens have somebody go down.
13:07
[SPEAKER_00]: They want four offensive tackles on the roster.
13:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Pounds as a guy who comes up, I would foresee him, you know, playing several games on the field goal unit, but not getting any snaps.
13:17
[SPEAKER_00]: Kind of like what Carson Vincent did this year.
13:19
[SPEAKER_00]: It's in got what three
13:23
[SPEAKER_00]: I would see something like that happening.
13:25
[SPEAKER_00]: I'd see Vincent stepping in at left tackle if Stanley is the one who goes down or Jones stepping in at right tackle if Rosengarten is the one who goes down and then wanting to have one extra game day tackle to have available and that's where I would see pounds coming in and he'd have to obviously beat up lifting hand to be that guy.
13:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I'd say less than 10 offensive snaps is a pretty good target.
13:48
[SPEAKER_00]: He would remain the number five offensive tackle on team entering 2027 and his development is part of the reason the Ravens defer a top pick at tackle.
14:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, here's the thing.
14:02
[SPEAKER_00]: They could still take a developmental tackle in 2027.
14:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Although the team's getting pretty darn heavy on developmental players, if you have Vincent, you keep
14:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, haven't really played Jones any attack will yet.
14:14
[SPEAKER_00]: And then you get another guy that almost seems like too much.
14:17
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, it wouldn't be too much to go out there and take a first round offensive tackle.
14:21
[SPEAKER_00]: But they'll have other needs as well.
14:23
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, they probably will have a big needed corner back next year.
14:26
[SPEAKER_00]: They may well have a big needed inside linebacker with a departure of Rokuan Smith.
14:30
[SPEAKER_00]: So there's going to be positions that compete for that first round draft capital.
14:34
[SPEAKER_00]: And of course, the Ravens in an ideal world.
14:37
[SPEAKER_00]: would have multiple options that they could draw from in that first round.
14:42
[SPEAKER_00]: They wouldn't be forced into a single pick.
14:44
[SPEAKER_00]: So.
14:46
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it is possible that they go for a, you know, a fourth round or a fifth round left tackle prospect again, and that kind of guy might be ahead of Diego pounds immediately.
14:57
[SPEAKER_00]: So his future certainly wouldn't be resolved even with a quote unquote great season at the 80th percentile where he plays about, you know, less intense snaps, but he does again elevated 53 at some point clearly beats out licked in hand in this in this game.
15:17
[SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, that'll do it for him.
15:19
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll talk about now that I've found a BK.
15:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, last year, one of the really disappointing stories he shut down with a career threatening neck injury.
15:27
[SPEAKER_00]: After just two games, he played 102 snaps.
15:29
[SPEAKER_00]: And by the way, played very well in those 102 snaps before he was hurt.
15:34
[SPEAKER_00]: The injury to me is the only pertinent factor for 2026.
15:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Some might say the only pertinent factor on the defense in 2026.
15:42
[SPEAKER_00]: It's so enormous relative to other things.
15:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Now there are big comeback needs on the defense.
15:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Marlon Humphrey needs to come back from a very poor year, for example.
15:51
[SPEAKER_00]: The Ravens need to
15:53
[SPEAKER_00]: get what I perceive as an outstanding play from what should be an outstanding trio of safeties.
15:59
[SPEAKER_00]: They really need to make sure they get that and they need to rejuvenate their past rush with a healthy tray Hendricks in and a, my green taking a step forward as well as probably still another veteran that they would sign.
16:13
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you look at the nom they've had a big
16:20
[SPEAKER_00]: The issue I have now, let me preface this by saying, I have no inside information on nowadays recovery, what his doctors are saying, what the Ravens doctors are saying are any of that.
16:32
[SPEAKER_00]: I have no inside information.
16:35
[SPEAKER_00]: And the Ravens are not giving us any at the podium.
16:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, Mitchers, the only one who's speaking to injuries that's generally the rule at most teams, is you can't, nobody but the head coach is gonna speak about injuries.
16:50
[SPEAKER_00]: is not encouraging.
16:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, what do I mean by that?
16:54
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it's, it's the phrasiology he uses in describing the Mataviki injury.
17:00
[SPEAKER_00]: It's that'll work itself out.
17:02
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll find out about that.
17:04
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll let him tell you about that.
17:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Those are, you know, I'll let him tell you about that is actually career ending language.
17:12
[SPEAKER_00]: That's the language that you used when Steve Smith was retiring and he, you know, he was going to go ahead and tell the media about that as opposed to a hardball doing it.
17:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, um, language like it'll work itself out.
17:24
[SPEAKER_00]: is basically putting it in a separate injury category from the other ones out there.
17:29
[SPEAKER_00]: So for example, at the, in the last day, couldn't put the last day of school, the second day of minicamp, he was, he said, and is kind of preamble to taking questions.
17:42
[SPEAKER_00]: midter said that the everyone was going to be ready for camp and they'd make a big effort to do, and it's particularly get the veterans through an immediately chestary that answered, including Nondi, and he had to back panel and say, well then I think that's going to work itself out, so we'll see where that goes kind of thing.
17:59
[SPEAKER_00]: And I don't have the exact phraseology, and by the way, under any of these circumstances, my read on this is going to always be trying to get between the lines and trying to understand what he's saying and understand what it means as opposed to, how he's positioning himself from a language standpoint.
18:19
[SPEAKER_00]: But in this case, I mean, there's nothing positive to draw from something like that.
18:25
[SPEAKER_00]: There's hope always, you know, and nonbeceems to be hopeful, and we as Ravens fans can be hopeful.
18:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Personally, even though I'm generally a worry ward about the Ravens, I talk about concerns more than I talk about all the pluses they have certainly though.
18:38
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm very positive on this team.
18:40
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm managing my own expectations in terms of whether or not nonbe met a B.K.
18:44
[SPEAKER_00]: plays and that's where I think it's it's probably prudent to be if you're if you're prone to disappointment that you know, it might not work out.
18:54
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think it might not work out in several ways.
18:56
[SPEAKER_00]: He might not play it all.
18:58
[SPEAKER_00]: He might not play nearly as much as he has in the past.
19:01
[SPEAKER_00]: And he might not play as well.
19:03
[SPEAKER_00]: So it could be any of those three.
19:05
[SPEAKER_00]: And he's, you know, now when he steps on the field again, he's going to be a full year at least removed from playing football.
19:11
[SPEAKER_00]: And there has been talk about whether or not he might begin on a PUP list, for example.
19:19
[SPEAKER_00]: I, you know,
19:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Anything like that, obviously, would reduce the likelihood that Nameda and Madabikey is going to be back and playing at a high level.
19:28
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think if you looked at this from various, I'll actually say that because it's really, goes in a good and great too much.
19:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Look at his last 36 games.
19:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Nameda and Madabikey has had 21 and a half sacks, 53 quarterback hits.
19:44
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think the only thing I have to continue to ask myself, there's a fantastic numbers, by the way, obviously, if a quarterback hit a half per game and a sixth sense of a sack per game, those are outstanding, but I just wondered, does it even matter anymore?
19:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Is it a basis of what we can expect from NAMDA?
20:03
[SPEAKER_00]: He was incredibly durable prior to the injury.
20:06
[SPEAKER_00]: He was an ideal running mate for Travis Jones.
20:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Those guys complimented each other extremely well.
20:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Because Travis commands double teams.
20:14
[SPEAKER_00]: He is an ideal, you're not peddouble team, him guy.
20:16
[SPEAKER_00]: And now, they were able to feast off individual guards with a lot of power and quickness to get to the quarterback.
20:24
[SPEAKER_00]: So a hand usage that was at a high level.
20:29
[SPEAKER_00]: He's one thing that I really thought was that he would do well with less of a workload and unfortunately we may get the the chance to see that this year is can he play 20 can give the remains 20 snaps a game in higher and leveraged situations and have that be something that that could work out and maybe it can He actually stood up to the additional workload very well
20:53
[SPEAKER_00]: in aggregate with a fine second half of 2024, but I'd say he was generally a little less, it's a little more effective playing less snaps on a, on a per game base that's not talking about even a 24.
21:06
[SPEAKER_00]: And there were things with this 24 season that were not really great, by the way, had a lot of penalties, which was one of the, one of the problems.
21:14
[SPEAKER_00]: In 24 and 25 combined, he split 69% of his steps as a pass, the fender, it's almost all of those as a pass rushery, he did drop the coverage a few times as well, but he was in for pass plays, which means they're really using him situationally in a sense already.
21:29
[SPEAKER_00]: So they wanted the Travis Jones and not be Maddie Peakey pairing out there on the field on third down or on obvious passing downs.
21:40
[SPEAKER_00]: So if he does play in 2026, I guess I would envision a situational past rush role that is virtually exclusive, meaning they're not going to be trying to get him artificial starts.
21:53
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't even think he'll start games, you know, play the first nap even which is something that players like to have on the resume.
21:59
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, they like they want to have, you know, started 17 games or started the last 34 games and
22:04
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, it's actually a contract, a significant contract factor, with Metabique, I think they're going to be very careful with him.
22:11
[SPEAKER_00]: And I don't think he'll be out there on first down.
22:12
[SPEAKER_00]: I think you'll see other three texts, whether that's Colleus, Gamble, or even Rish on Benny, potentially out there on early downs to play that three text spot.
22:23
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that they'll use him situationally and very judiciously.
22:29
[SPEAKER_00]: I've said that before about players by the way, and been wrong.
22:31
[SPEAKER_00]: So, hey,
22:33
[SPEAKER_00]: If he comes back and plays 700 snaps, I'm going to be the happiest claim there is in terms of admitting that I'm right, wrong about this, and be very excited about not only about a beacon, you know, potentially being back for even a longer term, but
22:49
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't expect that to happen.
22:50
[SPEAKER_00]: I expect that they'll be extremely careful with them in terms of usage.
22:53
[SPEAKER_00]: And this may even be something that the Ravens make a condition of activating and getting back and say, you know, we're going to play a certain way.
23:04
[SPEAKER_00]: And it may be that Dr. Nick Gill will have something to say about this.
23:08
[SPEAKER_00]: My guess is
23:09
[SPEAKER_00]: This is the sort of conditioning thing that falls kind of outside of his sphere.
23:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Not that he wouldn't have an influence in trying to implement something as recommended by a specialist, but this is a neck injury.
23:23
[SPEAKER_00]: You better go to a specialist on this one and then Dr. Gill can try to figure out, well, how do we manage his workload to make him an effective player?
23:31
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's something he did very well with the All Blacks.
23:35
[SPEAKER_00]: The biggest red flag on the 2024 season was a high penalty totally at six penalties and four roughing the passer flags.
23:41
[SPEAKER_00]: He also had a face mask.
23:42
[SPEAKER_00]: So five total personal fouls.
23:44
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a big drag down on any good sack totally.
23:47
[SPEAKER_00]: He did have a lot of pressure still.
23:49
[SPEAKER_00]: What was nice about about the 24 season and the 24 and 25 combined is his mistaql rate has improved dramatically down to 5.6% over that period.
23:59
[SPEAKER_00]: He had three mistaqles and 34 stops.
24:01
[SPEAKER_00]: He heard me talk about
24:03
[SPEAKER_00]: uh... stops to miss tackle ratio that's eleven point three to one in twenty four twenty five combined so the problem with with down to he's not the last time he was on the field the last times on the field he's been the the player we hope he was uh... the problem has been the games he hasn't been on the field since and and the reason for it so uh... that's where uh... you know we have to be be concerned
24:25
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, a good season.
24:27
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, this is I would say probably the most difficult player to mark the 60th percentile for in terms of the season.
24:37
[SPEAKER_00]: So I have to start by asking myself, is there a 40% chance that he plays?
24:42
[SPEAKER_00]: And so the problem is basically that the set of outcomes with not being able to be as extremely broad and it may be barbelled as well, certainly barbelled
24:55
[SPEAKER_00]: And then on the right hand side, actually think there's a pretty long tail in terms of what his outcomes are and it's probably not as bar build on the right side.
25:05
[SPEAKER_00]: But here's what I'll do for the 60th percentile.
25:09
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to go, well, what I think is frankly a little optimistic and say returns in time for the opener and place 400 snaps of largely situational past rushing with moderate success.
25:19
[SPEAKER_00]: That's 25 snaps per game and he's playing basically every game or it's or could he less snaps in that where he misses three games, you know, that sort of thing.
25:28
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that he plays off, improve scheme from mentor, improve play in the secondary and fewer past-rush injuries around him.
25:37
[SPEAKER_00]: He turns in a solid pressure rate, maybe about four sacks.
25:41
[SPEAKER_00]: I'd say, and that's honestly, that's a highly variable number.
25:44
[SPEAKER_00]: But I don't see him returning to anything sort of the rate that he's enjoyed over the 23 to 25 period, which is a 39 percent
25:55
[SPEAKER_00]: sacks plus quarterback hits divide by total pressure events and I use the pff definition in that even though they've got a, you know, extra sacks attributed to various past rosers in that I That's what I use for this Percentage year, but anyway 39% is absolutely fantastic.
26:13
[SPEAKER_00]: I do think it'll have a more normal pressure pyramid if he's back at all and so we'll see
26:19
[SPEAKER_00]: a relationship that the sacks and quarterback hits are a lower percentage of pressures but he's still getting pressures would hopefully be where he'd be at the 60th percentile.
26:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Overall, I think Raven's past rush is still effective with a combination of improved edge-rushier scheme and leads to protect.
26:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Very important, have good game script in order to get your past rushes to be able to tee off at will and the sack total recovers to no worse than the low 40s.
26:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Uh, I hope his stops to miss tackle rate drops off and by the way, very hard to maintain something like 11.3 and a stop to miss tackle ratio ratio.
26:53
[SPEAKER_00]: So I expected to drop off, but maybe maintain about 7.0 we're better.
26:58
[SPEAKER_00]: That will still have to keep it.
26:59
[SPEAKER_00]: You'll have to stay with a very low, miss tackle rate and I have to have a lot of productive run stops in order to generate that because he doesn't have enough sex to generate that those sort of defensive wins.
27:11
[SPEAKER_00]: So 7.0 would be, I think, uh,
27:14
[SPEAKER_00]: I'd be a very good season.
27:15
[SPEAKER_00]: I would think.
27:17
[SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, that's a 60th percentile.
27:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's move up to the 80th percentile.
27:20
[SPEAKER_00]: This is a great season.
27:22
[SPEAKER_00]: I say a place 550 quality snaps as he exceeds any reasonable expectation.
27:27
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, that's kind of the 80th percentile is, right?
27:29
[SPEAKER_00]: So not any Twitter expectation, honestly, because there's a lot of people who just
27:35
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, already are managing their expectations at Nameda Matabiki returning to he was in even 24 and 25 combined, which I think is probably too high, but he goes through the season with no more than one personal foul he generates pressure on seven to eight percent of past rush snaps.
27:53
[SPEAKER_00]: to go with a close rate of about 30%.
27:55
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that would be a great recovery to where he was before.
27:59
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, that's quarterback hits plus sacks and by total pressures.
28:03
[SPEAKER_00]: Continue to draw attention of offenses, which don't have enough assets to block everything the ravens can bring.
28:11
[SPEAKER_00]: quality interior defensive linemen of whether that's Jones alone or even see some plays where Campbell is on the field as well, potentially he's an edge player and and all of that should improve situations for Hendrickson for green and for whatever they want to do in terms of bringing past rush effort from the secondary so we're from the inside linebacker.
28:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Let me get back to what I said about Naughty Vika.
28:37
[SPEAKER_00]: He draws the attention as still quality one on one play.
28:39
[SPEAKER_00]: The Ravens team sack total rebounds rebounds to 3.0 per game plus.
28:44
[SPEAKER_00]: That would actually be 51 sacks.
28:45
[SPEAKER_00]: That's I want to set that bogey at 48 sacks.
28:49
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what I was hoping for here.
28:50
[SPEAKER_00]: And Matavika is part of the improvement although not likely to be the dominant force certainly not at the 80th percentile.
28:58
[SPEAKER_00]: And he has an $11.7 million cap savings that the Ravens can harvest by cutting him next year.
29:06
[SPEAKER_00]: A great, in a great season, Nondematted BK brings that into question.
29:11
[SPEAKER_00]: It's an easy decision for the Ravens to retain him for 2027.
29:15
[SPEAKER_00]: In fact, he has a good season and he shows, improvements coming back and he looks like the injury is not a problem anymore.
29:22
[SPEAKER_00]: It hasn't degenerated in some way.
29:24
[SPEAKER_00]: And we know so little about this injury
29:26
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, talking in generalities, only, that it could be with a good season, they say, yeah, that's certainly worth it.
29:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's pay that money.
29:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Now remember, the Ravens are going to be highly, highly pressured to find money.
29:38
[SPEAKER_00]: They've got Rokuan Smith.
29:39
[SPEAKER_00]: They can get 20 million from cutting him.
29:42
[SPEAKER_00]: The 11.7 million from now, they've made a piece of low-hanging fruit that if he's not able to play as much as well or at all this year that I think they pick.
29:54
[SPEAKER_00]: and unfortunately that's just the case.
29:55
[SPEAKER_00]: But with a great season, it's an easy decision for the Ravens to retain him for 27 and they do so.
30:02
[SPEAKER_00]: So I just want to finish this by saying, I really hope the best grammatique I hope
30:09
[SPEAKER_00]: what I'm reading on this situation from the coach's speak, from the syntax of what Menter is saying, is not as negative as I believe it to be, but I hope for the best for Namedi, and not just in football, I hope he can come back and play certainly for the four of the Ravens, but I hope he has a life that is not degraded in any way by a neck injury he takes from football, be incredibly sad indeed if that were the case.
30:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's go do it for today.
30:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks for listening folks.
30:40
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30:45
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30:49
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30:54
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30:56
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30:57
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30:59
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31:01
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31:02
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31:07
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31:11
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31:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks very much for listening.
31:23
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll talk to you next time on Film Study.