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Transcript

Predictable with Stu Burguiere - Funding Your Prediction Market Wallet with the SENATE FANTASY LEAGUE · Blaze Media

• 0:00
  Can you predict
• 0:01
  the elections?
• 0:02
  Are you good at that?
• 0:03
  Do you know what you're talking about?
• 0:05
  Well,
• 0:05
  you know,
• 0:06
  there's a lot of people out there who say they can do that.
• 0:08
  Can you actually do that?
• 0:09
  We have a way for you to test
• 0:11
  your,
• 0:11
  your will,
• 0:12
  and it won't cost you a thing.
• 0:14
  We're gonna get into that here in just a second.
• 0:16
  Plus,
• 0:17
  we have a bunch of other things,
• 0:18
  uh,
• 0:18
  coming up on the election and so much more.
• 0:21
  We wanna make sure you are the most informed person in your friend group.
• 0:25
  That's what we're going for here.
• 0:26
  We're trying to make a predictable world
• 0:27
  a little bit more predictable.
• 0:29
  That's what we do every day here and we're
• 0:30
  gonna start in a second on predictable with Stu.
• 0:49
  Welcome to Predictable with Sue.
• 0:50
  Before we get started today,
• 0:51
  I just wanna make sure
• 0:52
  you know about this.
• 0:53
  If you haven't been on social media.
• 0:55
  Good for you,
• 0:56
  by the way.
• 0:57
  Um,
• 0:57
  you may have missed this happening.
• 0:59
  Uh,
• 0:59
  a good friend of mine and a good friend of this program,
• 1:02
  Keith Malinac,
• 1:03
  uh,
• 1:04
  has had a really bad health turn
• 1:06
  in his life.
• 1:07
  Uh,
• 1:08
  he was on the show doing a show in the studio here right next door,
• 1:11
  um,
• 1:12
  and in the middle of the show,
• 1:13
  uh,
• 1:13
  wound up not feeling right.
• 1:15
  In the middle of them talking,
• 1:17
  just kind of packed up his stuff and walked out in the middle of the Pat Gray program.
• 1:21
  Uh,
• 1:22
  Jeffy was texting him and saying,
• 1:23
  hey,
• 1:23
  dude,
• 1:23
  what's going on?
• 1:24
  You just,
• 1:24
  you left.
• 1:25
  He said,
• 1:25
  I think I'm having a stroke.
• 1:26
  He drove himself to the hospital,
• 1:28
  which is a line from Ferris Bueller.
• 1:30
  Ferris Bueller,
• 1:30
  he drove,
• 1:31
  would you believe he drove himself to the hospital?
• 1:34
  That's basically what Keith did,
• 1:36
  um,
• 1:36
  which does not surprise me at all with Keith.
• 1:38
  Um,
• 1:39
  but,
• 1:39
  uh,
• 1:40
  he had a serious stroke and is in real trouble and is fighting for his life right now,
• 1:45
  um,
• 1:46
  and,
• 1:46
  uh,
• 1:46
  he's in a coma
• 1:47
  and it's really rough,
• 1:48
  man.
• 1:48
  It's,
• 1:49
  it's eating me up,
• 1:50
  honestly,
• 1:51
  and,
• 1:51
  uh,
• 1:51
  I,
• 1:51
  you know,
• 1:52
  I hate starting shows with this type of stuff,
• 1:54
  but like I feel like it's important.
• 1:55
  If you are a person who is a praying person,
• 1:58
  uh,
• 1:58
  if you're not,
• 1:59
  uh,
• 1:59
  you should consider it.
• 2:00
  I think you might like,
• 2:01
  uh,
• 2:01
  you might like it,
• 2:01
  but if you are a person who,
• 2:03
  uh,
• 2:04
  would say prayers for Keith Malinak.
• 2:06
  Um,
• 2:06
  please do.
• 2:07
  He really needs them right now.
• 2:08
  Um,
• 2:09
  it is a,
• 2:09
  he's in a critical moment.
• 2:10
  I think he's,
• 2:11
  they described it as critical but stable condition.
• 2:14
  Uh,
• 2:14
  strokes,
• 2:14
  from what I understand,
• 2:15
  you know,
• 2:15
  the first week is really,
• 2:16
  really important.
• 2:17
  Uh,
• 2:17
  it gets rough for a week and hopefully it starts to improve.
• 2:20
  We hope he comes out of it.
• 2:21
  I don't know what to even expect,
• 2:22
  man,
• 2:23
  at this point.
• 2:23
  I'm,
• 2:23
  uh,
• 2:24
  this sucks.
• 2:25
  Uh,
• 2:26
  so I love Keith.
• 2:26
  He was on the show,
• 2:28
  this show,
• 2:28
  not that long ago.
• 2:29
  He was on for our NFL,
• 2:30
  uh,
• 2:31
  fantasy draft.
• 2:31
  He has a team in that,
• 2:32
  in that,
• 2:33
  in that draft.
• 2:34
  Huge Atlanta Falcons fan,
• 2:36
  um,
• 2:36
  and,
• 2:37
  uh,
• 2:37
  I don't know.
• 2:38
  I don't even know what to say about it.
• 2:39
  Uh,
• 2:39
  if you are interested in,
• 2:40
  if you have financial resources you'd like to help Keith out with,
• 2:43
  there's a gifts and go available,
• 2:45
  um,
• 2:45
  help Keith Malinak with,
• 2:47
  uh,
• 2:47
  medical bills,
• 2:48
  you know,
• 2:48
  as we all know,
• 2:49
  when these things happen,
• 2:50
  no one is prepared for them,
• 2:52
  so.
• 2:52
  Um,
• 2:53
  people are raising money.
• 2:54
  He's a great guy.
• 2:55
  I can't say enough about him.
• 2:56
  I love him.
• 2:57
  So
• 2:58
  this sucks.
• 2:59
  And I,
• 2:59
  uh,
• 2:59
  I don't know what to say about it,
• 3:01
  uh,
• 3:01
  other than that.
• 3:02
  So please help if you can.
• 3:03
  OK.
• 3:04
  Uh,
• 3:05
  22 days till the election,
• 3:06
  uh,
• 3:07
  a big election here,
• 3:08
  uh,
• 3:08
  all over the country,
• 3:09
  and,
• 3:09
  uh,
• 3:10
  there's early voting already happening in 14 states.
• 3:13
  The headlines are all over the place.
• 3:14
  Let me give you a few just to start you off.
• 3:16
  Senate flippers,
• 3:17
  uh,
• 3:17
  yes,
• 3:17
  it's happening.
• 3:18
  The Senate race is most likely to flip
• 3:20
  less than a month from election day.
• 3:22
  They go through a bunch of the races there for Senate control.
• 3:26
  Uh,
• 3:26
  Washington Post says Trump could face a new threat in January,
• 3:29
  a Democratic Senate.
• 3:30
  Which is a very real possibility now.
• 3:32
  I mean,
• 3:33
  prediction markets think it's over a 50% possibility.
• 3:36
  Gosh,
• 3:36
  it's hard to believe with the way this map is set up that they could,
• 3:39
  the Republicans could lose,
• 3:41
  but it is definitely possible.
• 3:42
  Money is
• 3:43
  flowing in.
• 3:44
  We might get into that on tomorrow's show a little bit more detail,
• 3:46
  but MAGA money moves,
• 3:47
  uh,
• 3:47
  Politico headline,
• 3:50
  uh,
• 3:50
  plots uh final midterm money moves.
• 3:53
  Uh,
• 3:54
  thanks for the alliteration
• 3:55
  on that one,
• 3:56
  Politico.
• 3:57
  Um,
• 3:57
  and,
• 3:58
  you know,
• 3:58
  the election is a big thing.
• 3:59
  Uh,
• 4:00
  it is,
• 4:00
  it's a tough thing and a lot of people have election,
• 4:03
  a lot of people who I talked to who watch this show or listen to the show on podcast,
• 4:06
  by the way,
• 4:07
  it's available at youtube.com/atpredictableshw,
• 4:09
  predictableshow.com,
• 4:10
  and wherever you get your podcast,
• 4:11
  if you go for the Predictable
• 4:13
  with Stu,
• 4:13
  you can find it.
• 4:15
  A lot of people who listen to the show and watch the show are like,
• 4:17
  I don't,
• 4:18
  like,
• 4:18
  I,
• 4:19
  I'm kind of interested in prediction markets,
• 4:20
  but it's not necessarily my top priority.
• 4:22
  I wanna know what's going on with the elections.
• 4:24
  And so we try to give you a,
• 4:25
  a blend of both of those things.
• 4:27
  That's what this show does.
• 4:28
  We look at election news,
• 4:30
  uh,
• 4:30
  and news of the day,
• 4:32
  uh,
• 4:32
  culture,
• 4:33
  sports,
• 4:33
  all those things through the lens of prediction markets.
• 4:36
  Um,
• 4:36
  but it's not like an insider trading show.
• 4:38
  We're not like,
• 4:39
  you know,
• 4:39
  going deep into jargon and,
• 4:40
  and,
• 4:41
  uh,
• 4:41
  trading strategies.
• 4:42
  We'll show you some of that stuff,
• 4:43
  especially unpredictableShow.com,
• 4:45
  but we,
• 4:45
  you know,
• 4:46
  wanna make sure you get the best information on the election
• 4:48
  as is possible.
• 4:49
  Um,
• 4:50
  Calci is one of the big prediction markets here in the United States.
• 4:53
  They have a midterms hub that kind of gives you a quick look.
• 4:56
  Like,
• 4:56
  do you have the Senate up by any chance here,
• 4:58
  Adam,
• 4:58
  can we show that?
• 4:59
  Um,
• 4:59
  this is the CalSci,
• 5:00
  uh,
• 5:01
  midterms
• 5:02
  hub that they put together,
• 5:03
  which kind of puts all their election information.
• 5:06
  Um,
• 5:06
  in one place,
• 5:08
  it makes it easy for you to understand.
• 5:10
  Um,
• 5:11
  uh,
• 5:11
  here it is.
• 5:11
  Yeah,
• 5:11
  scroll down to the map if you would,
• 5:12
  Adam.
• 5:13
  Uh,
• 5:13
  Democrats have a 62% chance,
• 5:15
  uh,
• 5:15
  to control the Senate,
• 5:16
  and if you look here,
• 5:17
  every state has a number on it.
• 5:18
  That's the percentage
• 5:19
  of that particular party to win.
• 5:21
  Blue means Democrat,
• 5:22
  red means Republican,
• 5:23
  of course.
• 5:24
  Yellow is a very close toss-up type state.
• 5:27
  Prediction markets only see two states
• 5:29
  that are less than have less than a 60% favorite.
• 5:32
  That would be Iowa with Ashley Hinson at 58%
• 5:34
  and Maine
• 5:35
  with,
• 5:36
  uh,
• 5:36
  I think that's,
• 5:37
  uh,
• 5:37
  it's,
• 5:38
  uh,
• 5:38
  I think,
• 5:38
  uh,
• 5:39
  yeah,
• 5:39
  it's Troy Jackson leading 57 to 43,
• 5:42
  um,
• 5:42
  in that particular race.
• 5:43
  All the other ones have favorites over 60% right now.
• 5:46
  And you can kind of look at these and you,
• 5:47
  and you could say,
• 5:48
  well,
• 5:48
  I think,
• 5:48
  uh,
• 5:48
  you know,
• 5:49
  in Ohio,
• 5:49
  actually Houston's the favorite.
• 5:50
  What are they doing?
• 5:51
  They don't know what they're talking about.
• 5:53
  Uh,
• 5:53
  and you look at that and you say,
• 5:54
  oh,
• 5:54
  actually,
• 5:54
  you know,
• 5:54
  Sherrod Brown's favored.
• 5:55
  Uh,
• 5:55
  he's actually at 59% or 60%,
• 5:58
  depending on,
• 5:58
  uh,
• 5:59
  what number you have,
• 6:00
  um,
• 6:00
  there.
• 6:01
  And
• 6:01
  one of the things I talk about with people is like,
• 6:03
  I think I know better than this,
• 6:04
  but I'm not gonna blow all my money on this.
• 6:06
  I'm not gonna go out there
• 6:08
  and go on prediction markets and put my money out there and
• 6:10
  wind up losing it because I don't know what I'm doing.
• 6:12
  There's a lot of really sharp people
• 6:14
  on,
• 6:14
  on these markets,
• 6:15
  some that have been doing it for a long time.
• 6:16
  I,
• 6:16
  as I said,
• 6:17
  I've been doing this,
• 6:18
  uh,
• 6:18
  since at least 2014.
• 6:20
  Um,
• 6:20
  on prediction markets.
• 6:22
  I've been there for a long time and I'm not nowhere near as sharp,
• 6:24
  right?
• 6:25
  Like there are people who really,
• 6:26
  there's like people from like Morgan Stanley and their trading,
• 6:28
  right?
• 6:28
  There,
• 6:29
  there's all sorts,
• 6:29
  just like when you're trading stocks.
• 6:31
  Um,
• 6:32
  or,
• 6:32
  or something like that.
• 6:33
  There's,
• 6:34
  if there's money to be made,
• 6:35
  there's experts in that field
• 6:36
  and really smart people in there trying to make it.
• 6:39
  So,
• 6:39
  I can understand why you might feel,
• 6:42
  uh,
• 6:42
  like I can't go on these prediction markets cause I don't wanna lose
• 6:45
  money.
• 6:46
  And we were trying to think of a way
• 6:48
  to,
• 6:48
  to get people to understand these markets,
• 6:49
  to play with them a little bit and,
• 6:51
  and have fun in these markets because that's a big part of this.
• 6:54
  This,
• 6:54
  you know,
• 6:54
  stock,
• 6:55
  stock trading.
• 6:55
  I mean,
• 6:55
  Jim Crammer,
• 6:56
  Jim Cramer,
• 6:57
  people make fun of Jim Cramer and,
• 6:58
  and get on his case.
• 6:59
  I,
• 6:59
  I've always liked Jim Cramer.
• 7:01
  He's an entertaining guy.
• 7:02
  And he makes,
• 7:03
  uh,
• 7:04
  he makes stock market,
• 7:05
  uh,
• 7:06
  trading fun.
• 7:06
  Like you watch that show and it's,
• 7:07
  he's got lots of energy and it's just a lot of fun.
• 7:10
  Um,
• 7:11
  with prediction markets,
• 7:12
  they're just fun.
• 7:12
  Like they're,
• 7:13
  whether you're involved in them on a day to day basis,
• 7:15
  if it's part of your investment portfolio,
• 7:17
  if you just drop a few bucks here and there because you're just interested in it,
• 7:20
  or if you never
• 7:22
  ever trade.
• 7:23
  That page that I just showed you,
• 7:24
  that midterms hub,
• 7:25
  gives you information about the election,
• 7:27
  does not give you,
• 7:28
  I mean,
• 7:28
  you can trade from it,
• 7:29
  but
• 7:30
  you can go there for free.
• 7:30
  You don't have to be logged in or anything.
• 7:32
  And you can get information about every state
• 7:34
  where people think that it's going to land.
• 7:37
  75% of people who go to Calci
• 7:39
  go there for that information.
• 7:41
  They never trade.
• 7:42
  And that's totally OK.
• 7:43
  But I do think it's fun
• 7:45
  to get involved in these things,
• 7:46
  and I think it's fun to kind of bring you a,
• 7:48
  a,
• 7:48
  a,
• 7:48
  a,
• 7:48
  a little bit along and then I was like,
• 7:49
  well,
• 7:50
  how can people do this without feeling like they're gonna lose a lot of money?
• 7:53
  We,
• 7:53
  what we need to do is come up with a way
• 7:54
  for people to participate in prediction markets
• 7:57
  without risking a cent.
• 7:59
  Now,
• 7:59
  of course,
• 8:00
  you could do that by just reading the information,
• 8:01
  but that's,
• 8:02
  you know,
• 8:02
  it's interesting,
• 8:03
  but not necessarily fun.
• 8:04
  You can get on prediction markets,
• 8:05
  but you gotta put,
• 8:06
  you gotta have some risk on that.
• 8:08
  Well,
• 8:08
  we came up with a new way,
• 8:10
  a way for you to participate in prediction markets
• 8:12
  to show whether you can pick these elections,
• 8:15
  right or wrong,
• 8:16
  and it won't cost you a cent.
• 8:18
  And you might say,
• 8:19
  well,
• 8:19
  that's kind of cool,
• 8:20
  I might wanna try that out to see if I can test my my my will,
• 8:23
  but
• 8:23
  I wanna go a little farther than that,
• 8:25
  because not only
• 8:26
  can you come and do this with us,
• 8:29
  and uh participate in what I'm about to show you
• 8:31
  for free,
• 8:33
  but also,
• 8:33
  you'll have a chance for us to fund your prediction market for you.
• 8:38
  We
• 8:39
  have started something new,
• 8:41
  uh,
• 8:41
  at predictableShow.com.
• 8:43
  And,
• 8:43
  uh,
• 8:44
  if you wanna get to it directly,
• 8:45
  you can go to
• 8:46
  senatefantasy.com or Senate Fantasy League.com,
• 8:50
  wherever you wanna go.
• 8:50
  One of those two.
• 8:51
  It's a fantasy league,
• 8:52
  OK?
• 8:53
  We've set it up like a fantasy league that uses real prediction market data
• 8:57
  for you to test your predictions
• 9:00
  and your uh uh uh uh uh your market acuity
• 9:03
  against everyone
• 9:05
  that you know around the country and more.
• 9:07
  Um,
• 9:08
  We've removed all the risk from this,
• 9:10
  so you can't lose any money.
• 9:12
  You can,
• 9:12
  well,
• 9:12
  we can lose money cause we're gonna,
• 9:14
  we're gonna give you money
• 9:15
  if you win.
• 9:15
  Um,
• 9:16
  but there are cash prizes to this that you can fund your election market account.
• 9:19
  I mean,
• 9:19
  technically,
• 9:20
  I can't tell you what you can do with the money.
• 9:21
  You can do with it whatever you want.
• 9:22
  If you wanna,
• 9:23
  you know,
• 9:23
  you wanna buy it on,
• 9:24
  uh,
• 9:24
  those,
• 9:24
  those new Taco Bell meal boxes,
• 9:26
  that's fine too.
• 9:27
  But
• 9:27
  the idea here is to kind of fund your prediction market
• 9:30
  account or add to your prediction market account if you want.
• 9:33
  We'll do that for you.
• 9:34
  If you wanna take place,
• 9:35
  uh,
• 9:36
  take part in the Senate,
• 9:37
  Senate Fantasy League.
• 9:39
  This is something that I developed.
• 9:41
  Uh,
• 9:41
  I'm,
• 9:41
  I love these ideas.
• 9:42
  These are really fun for me.
• 9:44
  I hope they're fun for you as well.
• 9:46
  And you can do this for free at Senatefantasy.com.
• 9:49
  Let's bring it up.
• 9:50
  Senate Fantasy.com.
• 9:51
  This is what it looks like right now.
• 9:51
  It is live.
• 9:52
  You can draft your Senate fantasy team.
• 9:55
  You're gonna pick 8 candidates from 8 Senate races.
• 9:59
  Your score,
• 10:00
  you don't have to worry about that.
• 10:01
  We will calculate all of that for you and put it on a nice big leaderboard.
• 10:05
  Um,
• 10:05
  there are,
• 10:06
  uh,
• 10:06
  you know,
• 10:06
  of course,
• 10:06
  you know,
• 10:07
  rules to play,
• 10:07
  but it's free to play.
• 10:09
  No purchase necessary.
• 10:11
  And I think,
• 10:12
  uh,
• 10:12
  Monday,
• 10:13
  uh,
• 10:13
  November 2nd,
• 10:13
  yeah,
• 10:13
  it's midnight,
• 10:14
  basically the night before election.
• 10:17
  Uh,
• 10:17
  election day.
• 10:18
  So you can,
• 10:18
  you can join this at any time up till
• 10:20
  then.
• 10:21
  Uh,
• 10:21
  if you scroll down,
• 10:21
  how to enter,
• 10:22
  kind of gives you some,
• 10:23
  uh,
• 10:23
  overview stuff.
• 10:24
  So,
• 10:24
  you can sign in,
• 10:25
  you draft 8 candidates,
• 10:26
  candidates,
• 10:26
  you just have to submit it before the lock time.
• 10:29
  The scoring basically starts,
• 10:30
  uh,
• 10:31
  every team score starts with a score of 1000 and
• 10:33
  it goes up and down depending on what you picked.
• 10:36
  Um,
• 10:36
  and the,
• 10:37
  the price that you get at the time that you draft is what locks in.
• 10:41
  Um,
• 10:41
  if you go down to prizes,
• 10:42
  there we go.
• 10:42
  Uh,
• 10:43
  first place,
• 10:43
  2500 bucks.
• 10:45
  Nothing wrong,
• 10:45
  2500 bucks.
• 10:47
  Put that in a prediction market account,
• 10:48
  we'll grow it together.
• 10:49
  Second place,
• 10:50
  $1000 in cash.
• 10:51
  Third place,
• 10:51
  $500 in cash.
• 10:52
  If you finish in the top 10
• 10:54
  $100 in cash,
• 10:55
  plus,
• 10:56
  uh,
• 10:56
  by the way,
• 10:57
  that first place,
• 10:58
  lifetime premium subscription to predictableshow.com.
• 11:02
  Uh,
• 11:02
  second place,
• 11:03
  you get a year of the premium subscription as well.
• 11:05
  It's 3rd place,
• 11:06
  and then,
• 11:06
  uh,
• 11:07
  you get a year as well premium subscription for 4th to 10th.
• 11:10
  And then,
• 11:10
  even if you finish in the top 100,
• 11:12
  you get something,
• 11:12
  you get 3 months free of the premium subscription.
• 11:15
  All sorts of stuff goes on.
• 11:15
  So let's,
• 11:16
  let me show you how this works real quick.
• 11:17
  Let's just do a little,
• 11:18
  uh,
• 11:18
  there is a practice draft
• 11:20
  that is available right on that home screen,
• 11:22
  so you can try this a few times before you submit your official team.
• 11:25
  Uh,
• 11:26
  only one entry per email address,
• 11:28
  so you gotta get that done.
• 11:29
  But,
• 11:30
  uh,
• 11:30
  I don't know if there's some,
• 11:31
  there might be some limit on how many you can total do in total,
• 11:34
  but one per email address.
• 11:35
  Um,
• 11:36
  you,
• 11:36
  I don't know,
• 11:37
  maybe you can get a couple in there,
• 11:38
  a couple of different email addresses.
• 11:39
  You got a work address,
• 11:40
  you got a home address,
• 11:40
  maybe you got a couple of teams in there even.
• 11:42
  Um,
• 11:42
  OK,
• 11:42
  so you go in there and do,
• 11:44
  let's do try a practice draft to kind of show how this works.
• 11:46
  This is basically exactly what it looks like
• 11:48
  when you do it.
• 11:49
  Um,
• 11:49
  it says to sign in and draft your team.
• 11:51
  So,
• 11:51
  uh,
• 11:52
  team name,
• 11:53
  uh,
• 11:54
  How about uh where is?
• 11:57
  James Tallarico.
• 12:00
  Why not?
• 12:01
  I mean,
• 12:01
  we found him,
• 12:01
  but he's so small,
• 12:02
  you could lose him in a crowd easily,
• 12:04
  to be honest.
• 12:05
  OK,
• 12:05
  Adam's gonna put his name in there.
• 12:06
  He's filling this out for me.
• 12:08
  And you do start practice and this will bring you to the draft,
• 12:10
  uh,
• 12:11
  rules screen.
• 12:12
  Quickly with the rules.
• 12:13
  You're gonna draft 8 candidates from each different races.
• 12:15
  You don't have to be like,
• 12:16
  oh gosh,
• 12:16
  do I have to know everything about the race?
• 12:18
  We're gonna give you the information as you go.
• 12:19
  The site will calculate your score.
• 12:20
  You don't have to worry about that.
• 12:22
  The one thing in the rules that is important for you to know is your MVP,
• 12:25
  your most valuable politician.
• 12:27
  Um,
• 12:27
  that one will count double.
• 12:29
  So,
• 12:30
  that's the first pick you're gonna make.
• 12:31
  We'll show you that here in a second.
• 12:32
  All teams score,
• 12:33
  uh,
• 12:33
  start with a score of 1000.
• 12:35
  It'll go up and down from there.
• 12:36
  If a long shot wins,
• 12:37
  your score will increase a lot.
• 12:38
  If a heavy favorite wins,
• 12:39
  your score will increase a little.
• 12:41
  Uh,
• 12:41
  if your long shot loses,
• 12:43
  your score will decrease a little.
• 12:44
  If your heavy favorite loses,
• 12:46
  your score will decrease a lot.
• 12:48
  Uh,
• 12:48
  a bunch of other stuff,
• 12:49
  you gotta be 18 year old or blah,
• 12:50
  blah,
• 12:50
  blah,
• 12:50
  blah,
• 12:51
  blah.
• 12:51
  OK.
• 12:51
  So start the draft.
• 12:52
  Let's go to this,
• 12:53
  and I'll explain the scoring system a little bit as we go.
• 12:55
  This is your,
• 12:55
  uh,
• 12:56
  main draft screen.
• 12:57
  And I'll explain this for people on podcast as well.
• 12:59
  What we're looking at here
• 13:00
  is a fancy map of the United States of America with
• 13:04
  every state there's a Senate race going on highlighted for you.
• 13:07
  Uh,
• 13:07
  the,
• 13:07
  uh,
• 13:07
  there's a special highlight for the kind of close races,
• 13:10
  right?
• 13:10
  The ones we've been talking about most often,
• 13:11
  which is Alaska,
• 13:12
  Texas,
• 13:13
  Kansas,
• 13:14
  Nebraska,
• 13:14
  Iowa,
• 13:15
  Michigan,
• 13:16
  Ohio,
• 13:17
  and Maine,
• 13:18
  thought to be the most competitive races.
• 13:20
  They're highlighted in yellow
• 13:22
  if you're looking for those specifically,
• 13:23
  but every race is listed.
• 13:25
  Now,
• 13:26
  your first draft here,
• 13:27
  uh,
• 13:27
  round 1 of 8 is your most valuable politician,
• 13:29
  your MVP,
• 13:30
  uh,
• 13:31
  and your win or loss will count 2 times.
• 13:33
  So,
• 13:34
  the way to think about this
• 13:36
  is if,
• 13:37
  let's click on,
• 13:38
  uh,
• 13:38
  let's do,
• 13:39
  um,
• 13:41
  Let's do Nebraska.
• 13:42
  Click on Nebraska here in honor of our friend Keith Malinak,
• 13:45
  who,
• 13:45
  by the way,
• 13:46
  would love this idea.
• 13:48
  He's,
• 13:49
  he's a fantasy and,
• 13:50
  and a,
• 13:50
  uh,
• 13:51
  fantasy league and a politician,
• 13:52
  uh,
• 13:53
  a politics nerd,
• 13:54
  so he would absolutely love this.
• 13:56
  So you click on the state and it brings up the candidates that are available there.
• 13:59
  Pete Ricketts
• 14:00
  at 69%,
• 14:01
  and Dan Osborne,
• 14:02
  the independent
• 14:03
  slash Democrat at 31%.
• 14:06
  Um,
• 14:07
  You can pick either one of these
• 14:10
  to be
• 14:11
  your,
• 14:12
  uh,
• 14:12
  your candidate.
• 14:13
  Now,
• 14:13
  what,
• 14:13
  if you think about it this way,
• 14:14
  if you take,
• 14:15
  uh,
• 14:15
  Pete Ricketts at 69%,
• 14:18
  you've got 31 cents of profit there,
• 14:20
  right?
• 14:20
  31% of profit.
• 14:21
  It can go,
• 14:21
  it's,
• 14:22
  if you,
• 14:22
  if you're correct,
• 14:23
  it's gonna go from 69% to 100%.
• 14:24
  So you're gonna get 31%.
• 14:26
  Uh,
• 14:26
  there,
• 14:27
  and of course,
• 14:27
  this being the MVP,
• 14:28
  you're gonna get double that percentage.
• 14:30
  Uh,
• 14:31
  if you were to go to Dan Osborne,
• 14:32
  you're getting it at 31%,
• 14:34
  so you got 69%.
• 14:36
  Much more room on the upside
• 14:37
  and much less room on the downside.
• 14:40
  However,
• 14:41
  if you lose,
• 14:41
  you get 0 points for that candidate.
• 14:43
  If you win,
• 14:43
  you get that profit percentage.
• 14:45
  So,
• 14:45
  uh,
• 14:46
  let's just,
• 14:46
  uh,
• 14:47
  pick Pete Ricketts here as our MVP.
• 14:49
  So you draft him and if you see on the right side of your screen,
• 14:52
  You have your lineup kind of forming there.
• 14:54
  Your MVP at the top,
• 14:56
  Pete Ricketts,
• 14:56
  he's locked in at 69%.
• 14:59
  Then your next round,
• 15:01
  round 2,
• 15:01
  you have to draft a Republican.
• 15:04
  As it notes in the rules there,
• 15:05
  you don't have to agree with their policies,
• 15:06
  you don't have to like them.
• 15:07
  Remember,
• 15:08
  these are prediction markets.
• 15:09
  You're taking your,
• 15:10
  uh,
• 15:10
  emphasis out of this.
• 15:11
  Uh,
• 15:12
  you,
• 15:12
  you don't invest with your heart.
• 15:14
  That's the 12th Amendment to the predictable Constitution.
• 15:16
  Do not invest with your heart.
• 15:17
  So,
• 15:18
  you might be a Democrat and be like,
• 15:19
  I don't wanna pick a Republican.
• 15:20
  Well,
• 15:20
  you have to.
• 15:21
  If you want to participate in this contest,
• 15:22
  you gotta pick one.
• 15:23
  So pick one,
• 15:23
  maybe go to,
• 15:24
  uh,
• 15:24
  Maine.
• 15:25
  Uh,
• 15:26
  click on Maine and you bring that up.
• 15:27
  You got Susan Collins there.
• 15:28
  If you note here,
• 15:29
  you can't pick Troy Jackson cause he's a Democrat.
• 15:31
  This is a Republican-only round,
• 15:33
  so you pick Susan Collins,
• 15:34
  she's at 33.
• 15:36
  Is that right?
• 15:36
  33%?
• 15:38
  I don't think that's right.
• 15:38
  We just looked at that.
• 15:39
  She's like a 40-something.
• 15:41
  Hm,
• 15:42
  there's something wrong with that.
• 15:42
  Anyway,
• 15:43
  this is a test run,
• 15:44
  doesn't really matter that that might be locked with earlier prices.
• 15:46
  OK,
• 15:46
  so you click draft.
• 15:47
  Uh,
• 15:48
  so you have,
• 15:48
  uh,
• 15:48
  Susan Collins locked in at 33%.
• 15:51
  Then
• 15:52
  you go,
• 15:53
  uh,
• 15:53
  to the next round,
• 15:54
  which is draft a Democrat.
• 15:55
  Again,
• 15:55
  you might not like Democrats.
• 15:56
  You might think they're,
• 15:57
  they suck.
• 15:58
  Their taxes are too high.
• 15:59
  It doesn't matter.
• 16:00
  You're looking for opportunity.
• 16:02
  Which
• 16:02
  one can you find that has the,
• 16:04
  uh,
• 16:04
  lowest price
• 16:06
  that you think is going to win?
• 16:07
  So here we might go to,
• 16:09
  I mean,
• 16:09
  our name is where is James Tallarico?
• 16:11
  Let's pick James Tallarico in Texas.
• 16:13
  So you click on Texas,
• 16:14
  right there,
• 16:14
  there's James Tallarico.
• 16:15
  He's at 60% right now.
• 16:16
  You click draft on him.
• 16:18
  Uh,
• 16:18
  then you,
• 16:19
  you go by regions here,
• 16:20
  uh,
• 16:21
  the eastern region.
• 16:22
  Um,
• 16:22
  we already picked Susan Collins in Maine.
• 16:24
  Let's go to North Carolina and pick Cooper.
• 16:27
  There,
• 16:27
  uh,
• 16:28
  he's at 92%.
• 16:29
  So,
• 16:30
  again,
• 16:30
  he is probably gonna win.
• 16:31
  He's a heavy favorite.
• 16:32
  You don't have that much of a run on Roy Cooper.
• 16:35
  Uh,
• 16:36
  but,
• 16:36
  uh,
• 16:37
  you know,
• 16:38
  you,
• 16:38
  uh,
• 16:39
  you do have a big downside there.
• 16:41
  If you go with his opponent in that.
• 16:42
  Race,
• 16:43
  you've got a big,
• 16:44
  you have a lot of upside and only a little bit of downside.
• 16:47
  So it's,
• 16:47
  it's a balancing act here.
• 16:49
  Which way will you go?
• 16:50
  The,
• 16:50
  uh,
• 16:51
  the Southern region,
• 16:52
  region,
• 16:53
  a lot of states there,
• 16:54
  not a lot of close races.
• 16:55
  Let's go to South Carolina there and maybe pick,
• 16:57
  uh,
• 16:57
  Graham Nordone.
• 16:58
  Um,
• 16:59
  Darlene Graham Nordone,
• 17:00
  she's at 87%.
• 17:01
  We get a little bit of value maybe out of that if she,
• 17:02
  you know,
• 17:03
  wins.
• 17:03
  And I,
• 17:03
  I,
• 17:03
  I keep telling you this though,
• 17:04
  that is at the fringes of the wave.
• 17:07
  That race is at the fringes of the wave.
• 17:10
  Usually what happens in South Carolina is
• 17:12
  Democrats get a couple of polls,
• 17:13
  they get excited and lose.
• 17:15
  If this is a,
• 17:16
  that's one of the ways you'll know if this is a really big Democratic wave,
• 17:18
  if somehow she wins.
• 17:20
  Uh,
• 17:21
  let's go with Ashley Hinson in Iowa from the Midwest,
• 17:23
  our next round
• 17:24
  here in the 6th out of 8.
• 17:26
  Uh,
• 17:27
  there,
• 17:27
  and then we,
• 17:28
  uh,
• 17:28
  from the west,
• 17:29
  we can go with,
• 17:30
  what do we think here?
• 17:31
  Let's go,
• 17:31
  um,
• 17:32
  let's get in the,
• 17:33
  let's get mixed up in the Alaska thing for a second.
• 17:35
  Let's go with,
• 17:35
  uh,
• 17:36
  Sullivan in Alaska.
• 17:37
  You got a big,
• 17:37
  uh,
• 17:37
  underdog.
• 17:38
  Uh,
• 17:39
  he's only at 30% right now.
• 17:40
  You got a nice run there.
• 17:41
  And finally,
• 17:42
  at the end,
• 17:43
  uh,
• 17:43
  we've got a flex position.
• 17:44
  So have you ever done fantasy leagues before?
• 17:46
  Usually you have a position that's called the flex position,
• 17:49
  which means you can kind of go anywhere you want.
• 17:50
  So this is similar
• 17:51
  to that first round where you could pick any state in the country.
• 17:54
  However,
• 17:54
  this one only counts once.
• 17:55
  Your flex position,
• 17:56
  let's go.
• 17:58
  Uh,
• 17:58
  let's go to Minnesota.
• 17:59
  Let's pick another underdog here.
• 18:00
  Go to Minnesota.
• 18:01
  Give me a long shot here with,
• 18:02
  uh,
• 18:02
  Michelle Tafoya.
• 18:04
  She's at 10%.
• 18:05
  Uh,
• 18:05
  it's close play with polling.
• 18:06
  Let's give it a shot.
• 18:07
  OK.
• 18:07
  So this is our,
• 18:08
  our,
• 18:08
  uh,
• 18:09
  lineup here.
• 18:09
  It gives you,
• 18:10
  you picked all your picks,
• 18:11
  uh,
• 18:12
  starting score of 1000,
• 18:13
  uh,
• 18:13
  it gives you your MVP.
• 18:14
  Susan,
• 18:15
  we got Pete Ricketts,
• 18:16
  Susan Collins,
• 18:16
  James Tallarico,
• 18:17
  Roy Cooper,
• 18:18
  Darlene Graham Nordone,
• 18:19
  Ashley Hinson,
• 18:20
  and Dan Sullivan,
• 18:21
  and oh,
• 18:21
  Michelle Tafoya
• 18:22
  in our flex position.
• 18:24
  Uh,
• 18:24
  now,
• 18:24
  you get to lock it in here on the,
• 18:26
  on the right.
• 18:26
  Let's say though,
• 18:27
  you're like,
• 18:27
  you know what,
• 18:28
  I don't think,
• 18:29
  I think Michelle Tafoya is too much of a reach there.
• 18:31
  Go to change picks.
• 18:33
  If you click change picks,
• 18:34
  it'll bring you back to the screen.
• 18:35
  And if you go to your team on the right,
• 18:37
  uh,
• 18:37
  there's a team block there.
• 18:39
  You just go down to,
• 18:40
  um,
• 18:41
  uh,
• 18:41
  your team at the bottom where it says Michelle Tafoya.
• 18:44
  There's an X
• 18:45
  next to that.
• 18:46
  Um,
• 18:47
  and you just click the X,
• 18:48
  or let's,
• 18:48
  maybe let's get rid of Darlene Graham Nordone.
• 18:50
  How about that in the southern region,
• 18:52
  Adam.
• 18:52
  So on the right there where it says your team,
• 18:55
  uh,
• 18:55
  Darlene Graham Norman,
• 18:55
  click X,
• 18:56
  and then it'll clear that one out,
• 18:57
  and then it will bring you back to the southern screen.
• 18:59
  You can click instead Georgia
• 19:01
  and go with,
• 19:02
  uh,
• 19:02
  Mike Collins.
• 19:03
  Uh,
• 19:04
  so you go there and that's,
• 19:05
  that it brings you to this lock it in stream.
• 19:07
  When you're done locking it in.
• 19:08
  Uh,
• 19:08
  you have to click the 18 or older,
• 19:10
  one entry per email address,
• 19:11
  uh,
• 19:11
  blah,
• 19:12
  blah,
• 19:12
  blah,
• 19:12
  legal jargon we had to put in there.
• 19:15
  And then you save your team,
• 19:16
  and
• 19:16
  when you save your team,
• 19:17
  it'll email you your team,
• 19:19
  you'll get access,
• 19:20
  you'll understand where you are,
• 19:22
  um,
• 19:22
  what your team is,
• 19:24
  and then you'll have a leaderboard.
• 19:25
  Click on see the leaderboard.
• 19:26
  I don't know if that'll work here with the practice team,
• 19:27
  but,
• 19:28
  uh,
• 19:28
  yeah,
• 19:28
  uh,
• 19:29
  some,
• 19:29
  there's one team in there called the Tizzlers.
• 19:31
  I don't know who the,
• 19:32
  who the Tizzlers are,
• 19:33
  but there they are.
• 19:34
  Uh,
• 19:35
  the Tizzlers are in,
• 19:36
  uh,
• 19:36
  their with their fantasy league.
• 19:38
  Um,
• 19:39
  yeah,
• 19:39
  there is a premium subscriber with that name.
• 19:41
  What is it?
• 19:41
  Is it Tizzle or Tizzler Tizzler?
• 19:43
  Yeah,
• 19:43
  something like that.
• 19:44
  Um,
• 19:44
  so maybe that's his team.
• 19:45
  Uh,
• 19:45
  maybe he's the first one in here.
• 19:46
  I don't know.
• 19:47
  I'm just looking at this for the first time.
• 19:48
  Um,
• 19:48
  but
• 19:49
  that's what it is.
• 19:50
  There'll be a leaderboard there.
• 19:51
  It will update regularly,
• 19:52
  like,
• 19:53
  you know,
• 19:53
  multiple times a day,
• 19:54
  uh,
• 19:54
  as the,
• 19:54
  as the prediction market data changes.
• 19:57
  You'll start right at 1000.
• 19:59
  Every team starts at 1000 and depending on the values of these markets,
• 20:02
  it'll go up and down.
• 20:03
  You don't have to worry about that cause it'll calculate it for you.
• 20:04
  You get to see where your,
• 20:06
  uh,
• 20:06
  position is on the leaderboard.
• 20:07
  Uh,
• 20:08
  it's a lot of fun
• 20:09
  and,
• 20:10
  uh,
• 20:10
  it'll continue to update as you go.
• 20:12
  I mean,
• 20:13
  you know,
• 20:13
  like if you wanna put one in,
• 20:14
  uh,
• 20:14
  right away,
• 20:15
  uh,
• 20:15
  it's great.
• 20:16
  If you wanna put it in,
• 20:18
  wait a little bit,
• 20:18
  you can maybe put one in from your work address,
• 20:20
  one in from your home address,
• 20:21
  whatever you want.
• 20:21
  You know,
• 20:21
  just don't go too crazy with it.
• 20:22
  I mean,
• 20:23
  no they'll,
• 20:23
  it'll pick up bots and stuff trying to get like 50,000 entries in there.
• 20:26
  But,
• 20:27
  you know,
• 20:27
  put,
• 20:27
  you wanna put a couple in,
• 20:28
  a couple of different
• 20:29
  ways to play,
• 20:30
  uh,
• 20:30
  feel free.
• 20:32
  Check it out.
• 20:32
  It's gonna be a lot of fun and it's a way to understand these markets.
• 20:35
  Test your predictions against your friends.
• 20:36
  Send it around to your friends.
• 20:38
  Post it on social media,
• 20:39
  get it out there
• 20:40
  because we wanna get a lot of people in here and it'll be a lot of fun.
• 20:42
  I guess if you're trying to win the money,
• 20:43
  you're like,
• 20:43
  I don't want anyone else in here.
• 20:44
  What am I doing?
• 20:45
  But it's gonna be fun.
• 20:46
  It's gonna be a fun exercise
• 20:47
  and you can go up against
• 20:49
  uh your friend.
• 20:49
  Maybe at some point we'll send away.
• 20:51
  For you to group you versus your friends.
• 20:53
  That would be a fun feature to add,
• 20:54
  like,
• 20:55
  you know,
• 20:55
  you all can
• 20:56
  kind of subscribe together,
• 20:57
  to make a little friend circle for a little side league.
• 20:59
  We'll also be having some of the people from,
• 21:01
  uh,
• 21:02
  you know,
• 21:02
  I'm sure some of the people of the Blaze will jump in,
• 21:04
  uh,
• 21:04
  friends of the show and everything else.
• 21:05
  We'll have a way where you can see how we're
• 21:08
  doing in these things because I'm gonna submit a team.
• 21:11
  I don't know.
• 21:11
  If I win,
• 21:11
  do I get the money?
• 21:12
  Does that work,
• 21:13
  Adam?
• 21:14
  I don't see why not.
• 21:16
  I mean,
• 21:16
  I,
• 21:16
  I should get the cash.
• 21:18
  You know,
• 21:19
  if I win,
• 21:19
  I get the cash,
• 21:20
  right?
• 21:21
  There's a lot of strategy that goes into it.
• 21:23
  If you think of,
• 21:24
  uh,
• 21:24
  I'm gonna pick all people at 95% and I'll win all of them.
• 21:27
  That's good,
• 21:28
  but,
• 21:29
  of course,
• 21:29
  you're only getting that 5 cents of profit.
• 21:31
  So your score
• 21:32
  will be above 1000,
• 21:34
  but it might not be way above 1000.
• 21:36
  And if you lose one of those big ones,
• 21:37
  you're gonna,
• 21:38
  you know,
• 21:38
  drop a lot of points because of that.
• 21:40
  You might say,
• 21:41
  I'm gonna go with all long shots.
• 21:42
  Well,
• 21:42
  that's cool.
• 21:43
  You got a lot of upside there.
• 21:44
  And if you hit a bunch of them,
• 21:45
  you probably will win the competition,
• 21:47
  but
• 21:47
  Everyone that you lose,
• 21:48
  you're just gonna wind up dropping and you'll probably be below 1000.
• 21:52
  It's not a lot of people with 5% chances win.
• 21:55
  If you catch the right one though,
• 21:56
  it could be interesting.
• 21:57
  Uh,
• 21:57
  it's gonna be,
• 21:58
  I think,
• 21:58
  an interesting mix between,
• 22:00
  um,
• 22:00
  people
• 22:01
  taking
• 22:01
  the,
• 22:02
  the heavy favorites,
• 22:03
  maybe a mixture,
• 22:04
  maybe a bunch of underdogs.
• 22:05
  I don't know.
• 22:06
  Uh,
• 22:06
  it's,
• 22:07
  it's gonna be really cool to see how you guys decide to build your teams,
• 22:11
  and it will be a really fun exercise to watch this play out over the next 3 weeks.
• 22:15
  Again,
• 22:15
  I don't know if we have that prize screened up again,
• 22:16
  but
• 22:17
  The prizes are pretty cool.
• 22:18
  Uh,
• 22:19
  we're starting out with,
• 22:20
  I mean,
• 22:20
  maybe,
• 22:20
  I don't know,
• 22:21
  maybe if this thing gets successful,
• 22:22
  we'll,
• 22:22
  uh,
• 22:22
  we'll even grow the prizes,
• 22:23
  who knows?
• 22:24
  But it's 2500 bucks for first place.
• 22:26
  Uh,
• 22:26
  I think it's $1000 for second place,
• 22:28
  uh,
• 22:28
  and third place is $500.
• 22:29
  Top 10,
• 22:30
  gets you 100 bucks to put in your,
• 22:31
  uh,
• 22:31
  prediction market account.
• 22:33
  Uh,
• 22:33
  and then a bunch of cool other perks
• 22:35
  like subscriptions to predictableShow.com and so much more.
• 22:38
  So,
• 22:39
  that's what we have for you.
• 22:40
  It's called Senate Fantasy.com.
• 22:41
  I would love for you to spread the word on this because
• 22:44
  It's a,
• 22:45
  a,
• 22:45
  a really cool thing,
• 22:46
  a fun way to do this,
• 22:47
  and a different way to do this,
• 22:48
  and there's no risk to it.
• 22:50
  You wanna go there,
• 22:51
  you wanna try this out,
• 22:52
  and,
• 22:53
  uh,
• 22:53
  test your luck against the rest of the country.
• 22:56
  It's a great thing to do.
• 22:57
  Senate Fantasy.com.
• 22:59
  Take your Senate picks,
• 23:01
  try them out,
• 23:02
  test them
• 23:02
  against the rest of the country and uh uh other people around the nation.
• 23:06
  To see if you got what it takes to finish in the top 10.
• 23:09
  I don't know.
• 23:09
  I,
• 23:09
  you know,
• 23:09
  I'm gonna be like in last place on this thing.
• 23:11
  That's what's gonna happen.
• 23:13
  I'm gonna be in last place.
• 23:15
  This is what happens to my fantasy team.
• 23:16
  You know what my big,
• 23:16
  my,
• 23:17
  my big pick was?
• 23:17
  AJ Brown.
• 23:19
  Yeah,
• 23:19
  yeah.
• 23:20
  He's been,
• 23:20
  he got hurt on like the 3rd play of the 1st game.
• 23:22
  That was that's been my Senate,
• 23:24
  uh,
• 23:24
  Senate fantasy draft
• 23:26
  season for football,
• 23:26
  at least.
• 23:27
  Senate,
• 23:28
  I hope,
• 23:28
  goes a little bit better.
• 23:29
  So check it out now.
• 23:30
  Senatefantasy.com.
• 23:31
  Senatefantasy.com.
• 23:33
  Join us on this incredible
• 23:35
  fantasy journey
• 23:36
  as we go down the line and,
• 23:38
  uh,
• 23:38
  and try to uh see who has the best picks
• 23:42
  in all
• 23:43
  of America.
• 23:44
  You can check it out now,
• 23:45
  Senate Fantasy.com,
• 23:47
  Senate Fantasy.com.
• 23:48
  Back in a second.
• 24:08
  Welcome to Candidate Countdown.
• 24:10
  We look at one candidate a day that you
• 24:11
  might wanna consider for a prediction market position,
• 24:14
  one that I'm looking at.
• 24:15
  Usually,
• 24:15
  we take it from,
• 24:16
  directly from Stu's picks.
• 24:17
  By the way,
• 24:18
  all my picks,
• 24:18
  it's over 350 of them now
• 24:20
  in every prediction market,
• 24:22
  uh,
• 24:22
  that I hold,
• 24:22
  every position that I hold is available
• 24:25
  at predictableShow.com for premium subscribers.
• 24:27
  So if that's interesting to you.
• 24:28
  If you're in these markets,
• 24:29
  wanna test out where I am and check those out.
• 24:32
  It's all available at predictableshow.com.
• 24:34
  We did have a curse going on for a while.
• 24:36
  It it seemed like every candidate I featured in this,
• 24:39
  uh,
• 24:40
  was immediately cursed.
• 24:41
  That seems to have passed mostly.
• 24:43
  I think most of my positions now have come back to pretty much normal.
• 24:46
  That's good,
• 24:47
  um,
• 24:47
  uh,
• 24:48
  at least for my,
• 24:49
  my wallet.
• 24:50
  Um,
• 24:50
  today's though,
• 24:51
  countdown,
• 24:51
  candidate countdown,
• 24:52
  we're only 22 days away from the,
• 24:54
  uh,
• 24:54
  midterm election,
• 24:55
  and today's candidate is going to be
• 24:57
  Roy Cooper,
• 24:59
  Democrat
• 25:00
  from North Carolina.
• 25:02
  Now,
• 25:02
  I will say,
• 25:02
  I got in on,
• 25:03
  look how nice he looks,
• 25:05
  right?
• 25:05
  He just seems like a nice guy.
• 25:06
  Doesn't he?
• 25:07
  Look at him.
• 25:08
  He's just a nice guy,
• 25:09
  look at that kind smile,
• 25:11
  the nice warm window sill in the background.
• 25:14
  It was a nice day when this picture was taken,
• 25:16
  isn't it?
• 25:17
  Look at him.
• 25:18
  I mean how could you not vote for that guy?
• 25:20
  Now,
• 25:20
  I don't like a lot of his policies,
• 25:21
  so that's probably why I wouldn't personally vote for him,
• 25:22
  but
• 25:23
  That being said,
• 25:24
  he is,
• 25:25
  uh,
• 25:25
  I think a heavy favorite,
• 25:26
  and I've made this case before,
• 25:28
  uh,
• 25:28
  that
• 25:29
  I don't think it's a race where Republicans should be putting money.
• 25:32
  Um,
• 25:33
  and that sucks because,
• 25:34
  uh,
• 25:34
  you know,
• 25:34
  I,
• 25:35
  North Carolina should be a winnable state for Republicans.
• 25:37
  I just think that Cooper is one of those guys who works really well in that state.
• 25:40
  He's well liked in that state,
• 25:41
  and I don't think
• 25:43
  Republicans are gonna be able to win there this time.
• 25:45
  So that's where I am.
• 25:46
  If I was putting the money around,
• 25:47
  that's what I would do.
• 25:48
  They have pulled some money out of there,
• 25:49
  it seems.
• 25:50
  This is what the Calci market looks like right now.
• 25:53
  This is the prediction markets for,
• 25:55
  um,
• 25:55
  Roy Cooper to win.
• 25:56
  He's currently at 95.1%. Now,
• 25:59
  I've been buying,
• 26:00
  if you go back to like April,
• 26:01
  uh,
• 26:01
  this is where I was kind of the areas I started buying Roy Cooper.
• 26:04
  He's in the mid-80s,
• 26:05
  low to mid-eighties here.
• 26:07
  He rises,
• 26:08
  uh,
• 26:08
  through April,
• 26:09
  uh,
• 26:09
  to the high 80s and kind of gets into that 88,
• 26:12
  89 area in July.
• 26:14
  And it's been rising into the low 90s and above through the summer
• 26:17
  and recently peaked at around 96%.
• 26:22
  I mean,
• 26:22
  96% is a little much,
• 26:23
  frank
• 26:24
  frankly for,
• 26:26
  uh,
• 26:26
  for Cooper.
• 26:27
  It's not a lot of value there.
• 26:28
  He might be a 96% favorite,
• 26:30
  but like,
• 26:32
  Uh,
• 26:32
  you know,
• 26:32
  4%.
• 26:32
  You can find other markets with better odds.
• 26:34
  In fact,
• 26:34
  we're going to try to find one right now because
• 26:36
  this isn't just about Roy Cooper winning this race,
• 26:38
  which I do think he will.
• 26:39
  It's about the margin he wins by.
• 26:42
  If you have ever dealt with prediction markets,
• 26:44
  you probably know this,
• 26:44
  but if you're new to prediction markets,
• 26:46
  first of all,
• 26:47
  I'll just remind you,
• 26:47
  predictable 101.com,
• 26:49
  great resource,
• 26:49
  it's completely free for you to learn how to use prediction markets.
• 26:52
  Predictable101.com.
• 26:53
  But
• 26:54
  Uh,
• 26:54
  one of the things they have on these is not just who's gonna win,
• 26:57
  but who's gonna win and by how much,
• 26:58
  a margin market.
• 27:00
  And if you could look at that,
• 27:01
  usually the way Calci has these organized,
• 27:03
  it's a couple of different ways,
• 27:04
  but if you scroll below,
• 27:05
  go back up a little bit to show where you are here,
• 27:07
  Adam,
• 27:07
  cause this is,
• 27:08
  this is what we were just looking at a second ago.
• 27:09
  This is the main
• 27:10
  screen,
• 27:11
  right?
• 27:11
  You go to North Carolina Senate winner,
• 27:13
  you get Cooper,
• 27:13
  you get Watley.
• 27:15
  Scroll down below that,
• 27:16
  and they will give you the submarkets in many cases,
• 27:19
  it's not in every case.
• 27:20
  You kinda get,
• 27:20
  by the way,
• 27:20
  some information here.
• 27:22
  Um,
• 27:22
  you also get kind of a race intel section
• 27:24
  which gives you what the polling might look like,
• 27:26
  what the fundraising looks like,
• 27:27
  some basic stuff.
• 27:28
  And then under that you get a bunch of different,
• 27:30
  uh,
• 27:30
  uh,
• 27:30
  markets.
• 27:31
  Will Cooper outperform the polls?
• 27:32
  Uh,
• 27:33
  what,
• 27:33
  what,
• 27:33
  what vote will he get in certain counties?
• 27:35
  What vote percent will he get total?
• 27:37
  Voter turnout is another one that is down there.
• 27:40
  And then margin of victory,
• 27:41
  which is what we're gonna look at right now.
• 27:43
  Margin of victory,
• 27:44
  if you click on that,
• 27:45
  um,
• 27:45
  the way.
• 27:46
  It's different setup in,
• 27:47
  in different places,
• 27:49
  but if you see above,
• 27:51
  um,
• 27:51
  go up just a little bit here,
• 27:52
  um,
• 27:53
  right there,
• 27:54
  you see the number there with like a scroll.
• 27:56
  Right now,
• 27:56
  it's on Cooper 9+ points.
• 27:58
  So will Cooper win
• 28:00
  by 9 or more?
• 28:02
  He's at a 53% chance to do that.
• 28:04
  Um,
• 28:05
  so that is what the most recent price is.
• 28:08
  If you click on those numbers above though,
• 28:09
  lower it to 7 or 5,
• 28:12
  It will just adjust for you and give you that market.
• 28:14
  So will he win by 7 points?
• 28:16
  Now,
• 28:16
  let's,
• 28:16
  look at,
• 28:17
  will he win by 5 points.
• 28:18
  That's at 83%.
• 28:20
  Uh,
• 28:21
  5 points,
• 28:21
  I think he will win by 5 points.
• 28:23
  I think he probably will win by 7 points.
• 28:25
  Both of those give much better,
• 28:26
  uh,
• 28:27
  profit percentage.
• 28:28
  Now,
• 28:28
  you are,
• 28:29
  it's,
• 28:29
  you know,
• 28:29
  it is,
• 28:29
  I hate to bring gambling references into this
• 28:31
  because that's what everyone says prediction markets are.
• 28:34
  Some of the,
• 28:34
  some of the organizational aspects of it are similar to that.
• 28:38
  In that like,
• 28:39
  OK,
• 28:39
  you're not looking at a margin.
• 28:40
  It's almost like a line in a football game,
• 28:41
  right?
• 28:42
  Like it's,
• 28:42
  you know,
• 28:43
  Philadelphia Eagles,
• 28:44
  they would need plus at this 0.5 points.
• 28:47
  This is,
• 28:47
  uh,
• 28:48
  here will
• 28:49
  Cooper,
• 28:50
  uh,
• 28:50
  win?
• 28:51
  Will he win by 5 points?
• 28:51
  Will he win by 7?
• 28:52
  Will he win by 9?
• 28:54
  The mar the markets there are pretty interesting.
• 28:56
  Um,
• 28:56
  a couple of things going on.
• 28:57
  Let me give you a couple of quick headlines from North Carolina.
• 28:59
  We might bring that,
• 29:00
  uh,
• 29:00
  that North Carolina market up one more time here at the end,
• 29:02
  Adam.
• 29:03
  Uh,
• 29:03
  North Carolina is shifting Democrat.
• 29:05
  Why is that happening?
• 29:06
  I mean,
• 29:06
  they,
• 29:07
  I will say their argument in here doesn't seem all that convincing.
• 29:09
  African-American voters have always existed in North
• 29:11
  Carolina and have always voted Democrat,
• 29:13
  uh,
• 29:13
  or at least for,
• 29:14
  not always,
• 29:14
  but for a very long time.
• 29:16
  Um,
• 29:17
  this is one quote that I kind of found funny.
• 29:19
  This is from,
• 29:20
  uh,
• 29:21
  who is it,
• 29:21
  uh,
• 29:21
  Chris Cooper.
• 29:23
  He says,
• 29:23
  uh,
• 29:24
  what's the,
• 29:25
  what is the,
• 29:26
  uh,
• 29:26
  why is,
• 29:26
  why is,
• 29:27
  uh,
• 29:27
  Roy Cooper,
• 29:28
  the governor
• 29:29
  and looking to be senator,
• 29:30
  so difficult to beat?
• 29:31
  He says,
• 29:31
  quote,
• 29:32
  his secret sauce in some ways
• 29:34
  is mayonnaise.
• 29:41
  I don't know.
• 29:42
  It's not,
• 29:42
  I don't know if I want that said about me.
• 29:44
  I do like some mayo though.
• 29:46
  I gotta say.
• 29:47
  He,
• 29:47
  his secret sauce in some ways is mayonnaise,
• 29:49
  right?
• 29:50
  He's been able to avoid scandal.
• 29:51
  He's rhetorically disciplined.
• 29:53
  You could spend all month looking for rhetorical gaffes from
• 29:55
  Roy Cooper and you're just not going to find any.
• 29:57
  So he's a careful politician.
• 29:59
  He doesn't make rhetorical mistakes.
• 30:01
  He's disciplined on the stump,
• 30:03
  and that all has amounted to a multi-decade
• 30:05
  career in North Carolina politics as a Democrat.
• 30:08
  That,
• 30:08
  what I just read to you,
• 30:09
  the definition.
• 30:11
  Of mayonnaise.
• 30:14
  Uh,
• 30:15
  Trump Cooper attack that probably his most vulnerable thing in this race,
• 30:18
  by the way,
• 30:18
  uh,
• 30:18
  Trump Cooper attack,
• 30:20
  uh,
• 30:21
  Tampa Free Press,
• 30:22
  uh,
• 30:22
  covering this,
• 30:23
  uh,
• 30:24
  he's targeting him on his crime record,
• 30:25
  which is not good.
• 30:27
  Uh,
• 30:27
  he released,
• 30:28
  uh,
• 30:28
  where did I put my,
• 30:29
  I put my phone.
• 30:30
  I had my phone.
• 30:31
  I had some notes on my phone I wanted to hit.
• 30:32
  Where did I put it?
• 30:33
  Oh,
• 30:33
  here it is.
• 30:34
  Sorry,
• 30:34
  it's underneath my desk.
• 30:35
  That's,
• 30:36
  that's how you do a professional broadcast,
• 30:37
  boys and girls.
• 30:37
  If you're going to broadcasting school,
• 30:38
  if you're looking for that.
• 30:40
  Uh,
• 30:40
  just,
• 30:40
  you know,
• 30:40
  just feel free to use that as an example.
• 30:42
  Um,
• 30:43
  so,
• 30:43
  uh,
• 30:46
  He released a bunch of criminals,
• 30:48
  particularly around COVID.
• 30:49
  There was that weird era where Democrats were like,
• 30:51
  hey,
• 30:51
  how can we help COVID?
• 30:52
  What if we released all the prisoners?
• 30:55
  Gavin Newsom was big into that one as well.
• 30:57
  I don't understand the philosophy all that much.
• 30:59
  I guess the idea was they would be passing it to each other in prison,
• 31:02
  but instead,
• 31:02
  we released them so they can murder us outside of prison.
• 31:05
  I don't know how that works exactly.
• 31:06
  Um,
• 31:07
  but,
• 31:07
  uh,
• 31:08
  just going through his,
• 31:08
  uh,
• 31:09
  election results,
• 31:09
  here we go.
• 31:10
  Um,
• 31:11
  he,
• 31:12
  let's see,
• 31:13
  2016 barely won.
• 31:14
  2020,
• 31:15
  he won as well.
• 31:16
  Smaller margins than the 5 and 7 we were just talking about.
• 31:19
  Um,
• 31:20
  but he,
• 31:20
  he typically would go,
• 31:21
  uh,
• 31:22
  you know,
• 31:23
  uh,
• 31:23
  he wins by a decent amount.
• 31:25
  Um,
• 31:25
  he's a little bit better
• 31:26
  than the Democratic presidential
• 31:28
  ticket in both of the elections,
• 31:30
  uh,
• 31:30
  that he was involved in.
• 31:31
  Um,
• 31:32
  uh,
• 31:33
  polling is interesting.
• 31:35
  He's leading,
• 31:36
  uh,
• 31:36
  by high single digits.
• 31:37
  Let me just give you a rundown of some of these polls.
• 31:39
  Trafalgar had Cooper up by 8.
• 31:41
  East Carolina had him up by 7.
• 31:43
  Big data poll had him up by 12.
• 31:46
  Q Qantas has been more of a Republican leader this cycle has him up by 5.
• 31:51
  Fabrizio,
• 31:52
  11 for Cooper,
• 31:53
  and Opinion Diagnostics has Cooper up by 8.
• 31:57
  Those are the most recent polls according to the,
• 31:59
  uh,
• 31:59
  New York Times.
• 32:01
  Uh,
• 32:01
  Anything else,
• 32:01
  he's got tons and tons of money,
• 32:03
  probably 6 or 7 times the money,
• 32:04
  which is interesting because,
• 32:05
  uh,
• 32:05
  Watley is a big RNC guy.
• 32:08
  He has access to money,
• 32:09
  but it's just tough in this particular climate.
• 32:12
  So that's kind of what we're looking at for that race.
• 32:14
  Give me back that,
• 32:14
  uh,
• 32:14
  that,
• 32:15
  that,
• 32:15
  uh,
• 32:16
  situation one more time.
• 32:17
  If you look at it and you think Cooper is gonna win,
• 32:18
  you can go with him to win and you can win,
• 32:20
  you know,
• 32:20
  4 or 5% on your money.
• 32:22
  And there's nothing wrong with 4 or 5% on your money in 3 weeks.
• 32:25
  That's a really good return,
• 32:27
  boys and girls.
• 32:28
  I mean,
• 32:28
  I'm not smart enough off the top of my head,
• 32:30
  uh,
• 32:30
  to do that,
• 32:31
  uh,
• 32:31
  APR
• 32:32
  Rachel,
• 32:32
  but if you think of it's 4 weeks,
• 32:33
  it's about a month,
• 32:35
  you know,
• 32:35
  you figure about by,
• 32:36
  by,
• 32:37
  uh,
• 32:37
  13,
• 32:38
  so you're 5 times 13,
• 32:39
  you're at 65%,
• 32:40
  uh,
• 32:41
  APR.
• 32:41
  You're not getting that of your bank account.
• 32:43
  In fact,
• 32:43
  you're probably not getting 4% for the year on your bank account.
• 32:46
  You can get 4%
• 32:47
  in
• 32:47
  just 3 weeks if you believe Cooper is going to win this race.
• 32:51
  In addition to that though,
• 32:53
  you can get better at,
• 32:54
  like,
• 32:54
  the fact is,
• 32:55
  you know,
• 32:56
  give me Cooper plus 3 for a second on this,
• 32:58
  uh,
• 32:58
  real quick,
• 32:59
  Adam.
• 32:59
  3 is at 94%,
• 33:01
  not much value there.
• 33:02
  5 is I think where the value starts to kick in.
• 33:04
  At 5 points,
• 33:05
  him winning by 5%.
• 33:06
  Again,
• 33:06
  you're talking about,
• 33:07
  you know,
• 33:07
  51,
• 33:07
  46,
• 33:08
  something like that.
• 33:09
  Close race,
• 33:10
  closer than the polls typically show.
• 33:12
  You can get 17%
• 33:14
  on your 83 cents investment.
• 33:16
  That's,
• 33:17
  you know,
• 33:17
  you're getting up around 20%,
• 33:20
  right?
• 33:20
  Uh,
• 33:20
  you're,
• 33:20
  you're,
• 33:21
  you're right around 20%
• 33:22
  on your,
• 33:23
  uh,
• 33:23
  profit margin.
• 33:24
  And then,
• 33:24
  of course,
• 33:25
  you're doing that in 3 weeks,
• 33:26
  which means your APR is ridiculous with that rate.
• 33:29
  Uh,
• 33:29
  if you go up to 7%,
• 33:30
  you get a little bit risky.
• 33:31
  You can get 7,
• 33:32
  Cooper by 7 at 73%.
• 33:34
  So again,
• 33:35
  that's a 27 cents
• 33:36
  profit on every 73 cents you invest.
• 33:38
  And if you want to get a little frisky,
• 33:40
  you go up to 9%,
• 33:41
  which a lot of the polls,
• 33:42
  by the way,
• 33:42
  as I just pointed out,
• 33:43
  has him winning by 9%,
• 33:45
  um,
• 33:45
  or more.
• 33:46
  You can get that basically doubling your money
• 33:48
  in 3 weeks,
• 33:49
  and if you go up to 11,
• 33:50
  if you wanna get really frisky.
• 33:52
  34% chance for that to happen.
• 33:54
  Now,
• 33:54
  it's a big margin in North Carolina.
• 33:57
  Uh,
• 33:57
  but the polls consistently show him generally in
• 33:59
  striking distance with some people who are undecided.
• 34:02
  It's not crazy.
• 34:04
  And then you're getting,
• 34:04
  uh,
• 34:05
  you know,
• 34:05
  66 cent profit on your 34 cents investment.
• 34:09
  So that's where we are right now in that market.
• 34:11
  We're gonna take a quick break and come back with more in just a moment.
• 34:29
  Hedge your life.
• 34:30
  It's something that I do all the time.
• 34:31
  My friends make fun of me for it because I
• 34:34
  really do use prediction markets to hedge things in my life.
• 34:38
  Like if I'm gonna be disappointed personally in my life,
• 34:41
  I want to get paid
• 34:42
  for my pain.
• 34:44
  That is some,
• 34:44
  how I look,
• 34:45
  it's a big reason I use prediction markets,
• 34:47
  frankly.
• 34:48
  Um,
• 34:48
  you may have seen this over the weekend.
• 34:49
  Eagles and Commanders make poor decisions to cost them wins during the
• 34:52
  tough week for the NFC East.
• 34:54
  NFC Week East is a brutal,
• 34:56
  brutal place to be.
• 34:57
  It's like,
• 34:58
  uh,
• 34:58
  you know,
• 34:59
  uh,
• 35:01
  I mean,
• 35:01
  I was gonna give,
• 35:02
  I'm gonna give dark war references,
• 35:04
  but I won't do that.
• 35:04
  Um,
• 35:05
  bottom line is it's a catastrophe of a division.
• 35:08
  The Eagles have lost two games in a row that they were at 97% chance to win.
• 35:12
  I don't know if that's ever happened in the history of the NFL.
• 35:15
  Maybe it has.
• 35:16
  Uh,
• 35:16
  but both of them were crushing for me.
• 35:18
  Um,
• 35:19
  now,
• 35:19
  I've told you before,
• 35:20
  one way that I hedge my life here,
• 35:22
  because this is actually real for to me.
• 35:24
  Like I
• 35:25
  will,
• 35:25
  my mood is up and down,
• 35:27
  my enjoyment of life is up and down based on whether the Eagles win.
• 35:30
  You might think that's stupid.
• 35:31
  You might have something totally different.
• 35:32
  You might have an American Idol candidate.
• 35:34
  You're like,
• 35:34
  I gotta have that guy win.
• 35:35
  If he doesn't win,
• 35:36
  I'm gonna be so pissed off.
• 35:37
  Whatever your thing is,
• 35:38
  it could be a stock price,
• 35:39
  it could be the Bitcoin,
• 35:40
  it could be,
• 35:41
  uh,
• 35:42
  politics is a great way to do it.
• 35:43
  Um,
• 35:43
  you know,
• 35:44
  if you have a candidate that you're like,
• 35:45
  if your home state is like,
• 35:46
  like,
• 35:47
  you know,
• 35:47
  I could do this here.
• 35:48
  Uh,
• 35:48
  in Texas.
• 35:49
  If Tallarico wins,
• 35:50
  I'm gonna be very disappointed.
• 35:51
  If Hinojosa wins as governor of Texas,
• 35:53
  I'm gonna be really disappointed.
• 35:55
  Uh,
• 35:55
  I do.
• 35:55
  I think I did.
• 35:56
  No,
• 35:56
  I don't have it as a position.
• 35:58
  I would normally in a hedge your life position though,
• 36:00
  I would say,
• 36:01
  put money on Hinojosa.
• 36:03
  Because
• 36:03
  if,
• 36:04
  if,
• 36:04
  if she wins,
• 36:04
  it's gonna probably cost me money in taxes,
• 36:06
  but also,
• 36:07
  it's going to be something I'm not gonna be happy with.
• 36:09
  So I should get paid for that pain.
• 36:10
  The Philadelphia Eagles are the prime example of this.
• 36:12
  It's easiest to do in sports because there's wins,
• 36:14
  there's losses all the time.
• 36:16
  Um,
• 36:17
  and yesterday,
• 36:18
  the Eagles had a
• 36:19
  quote unquote,
• 36:20
  game-winning drive in which they kicked a field goal with 8 seconds left in the game,
• 36:23
  and you think to yourself,
• 36:24
  at that point,
• 36:25
  what are the,
• 36:26
  uh,
• 36:26
  of course,
• 36:27
  they've won the game.
• 36:27
  Now,
• 36:28
  I,
• 36:28
  being a long-suffering Eagles fan,
• 36:30
  recently things have been very good,
• 36:31
  but I went through many,
• 36:32
  many decades of them
• 36:34
  losing in the most inconceivable ways.
• 36:36
  Um,
• 36:37
  I,
• 36:38
  uh,
• 36:38
  took that opportunity to hedge my life.
• 36:41
  This is how I would use this,
• 36:42
  and it's how I did use it yesterday.
• 36:45
  And the way I think about it is,
• 36:46
  what,
• 36:47
  what amount am I willing to lose,
• 36:49
  uh,
• 36:50
  to pay for this victory?
• 36:52
  What
• 36:53
  dollar amount am I willing to lose for the Eagles to win this game?
• 36:56
  They should win,
• 36:57
  right?
• 36:58
  But what amount of money am I willing to just throw away
• 37:01
  to to buy this victory for myself,
• 37:04
  right?
• 37:05
  And
• 37:06
  it depends on how big you look at those things.
• 37:08
  Uh,
• 37:08
  my number last night with 8 seconds left in the game,
• 37:10
  I said to my son,
• 37:11
  first of all,
• 37:11
  this game is not over.
• 37:13
  I was getting texts from Eagles fans who were like,
• 37:14
  I can't believe they came back.
• 37:16
  They didn't come back yet.
• 37:16
  There's still 8 seconds left in this game.
• 37:18
  And of course,
• 37:19
  there's a good chance they will blow it some.
• 37:21
  What happened was,
• 37:22
  of course,
• 37:22
  they kicked the ball off.
• 37:24
  Instead of kicking it into the end zone,
• 37:26
  uh,
• 37:26
  they,
• 37:26
  uh,
• 37:27
  decided to,
• 37:27
  uh,
• 37:28
  you know,
• 37:28
  let them come.
• 37:29
  By the way,
• 37:29
  their mistakes were more previous than that.
• 37:31
  I didn't think that was the worst decision in the world,
• 37:33
  but the bottom line is the guy ran it all the way back to like the,
• 37:35
  the,
• 37:36
  the 40 yard line,
• 37:37
  and then,
• 37:37
  uh,
• 37:37
  Cam Little of the Jacksonville Jaguars hit a 57 yard
• 37:40
  field goal and the Eagles lost with 8 seconds left.
• 37:42
  Uh,
• 37:42
  he kicked it at the buzzer.
• 37:44
  Uh,
• 37:44
  that being said,
• 37:45
  uh,
• 37:45
  prediction markets had a great opportunity for me to hedge my life last night,
• 37:48
  which was,
• 37:49
  I could,
• 37:49
  it was 2 cents.
• 37:51
  That's where it was sat at,
• 37:51
  2 cents on the markets.
• 37:54
  So I was able to buy,
• 37:54
  I,
• 37:55
  I was like,
• 37:55
  you know what,
• 37:55
  20 bucks.
• 37:56
  I'll throw 20 bucks at this.
• 37:57
  I don't care.
• 37:57
  If I lose the 20 bucks,
• 37:58
  great.
• 37:59
  I want the Eagles to win.
• 38:00
  20 bucks,
• 38:00
  bought 1000 shares,
• 38:02
  uh,
• 38:02
  of the Eagles to lose that game.
• 38:04
  And so I got a nice profit out of that.
• 38:07
  Now,
• 38:07
  I will say,
• 38:07
  did I feel better about it at the time?
• 38:09
  No.
• 38:10
  I didn't,
• 38:11
  because I care way more
• 38:13
  about the Eagles than winning $1000.
• 38:15
  I,
• 38:15
  I'll be honest with you,
• 38:16
  I don't,
• 38:17
  I,
• 38:17
  that did not soften my pain all that much at all,
• 38:20
  but
• 38:21
  I did get paid for that pain.
• 38:23
  And,
• 38:23
  you know,
• 38:23
  at a risk of 20 bucks,
• 38:25
  which,
• 38:25
  you know,
• 38:25
  again,
• 38:26
  uh,
• 38:26
  20 bucks is 20 bucks,
• 38:27
  but I was willing to lose it,
• 38:28
  uh,
• 38:29
  a very nice profit,
• 38:30
  uh,
• 38:30
  off of that particular thing.
• 38:32
  And
• 38:32
  at the same time,
• 38:33
  I got also paid on my 15,
• 38:35
  will the Eagles win 15 or more games,
• 38:37
  which by the way,
• 38:37
  I've been telling you for many,
• 38:39
  many weeks,
• 38:39
  the answer to that is absolutely freaking out.
• 38:42
  So that one paid out as well.
• 38:44
  As soon as they are
• 38:45
  mathematically incapable
• 38:47
  of winning,
• 38:48
  uh,
• 38:48
  that 15th game,
• 38:49
  uh,
• 38:49
  you get paid out on those markets as well.
• 38:51
  So I do like those
• 38:52
  as well.
• 38:52
  Uh,
• 38:53
  so that is how I hedge my life,
• 38:54
  in case you wanted an example of that.
• 38:55
  Politics is another great way,
• 38:57
  uh,
• 38:57
  to do it if you're,
• 38:58
  if you're interested.
• 39:00
  If you are a person who's like,
• 39:01
  you know what,
• 39:01
  maybe,
• 39:02
  uh,
• 39:02
  that's what I'll do with my Senate fantasy league.
• 39:03
  I will go on the SenateFantassy.com and I will,
• 39:06
  uh,
• 39:06
  click all Democrats,
• 39:08
  I think there's one you have to pick a Republican,
• 39:09
  but maybe I'll click all Democrats cause I like the,
• 39:11
  I like the Republicans or maybe the reverse is for you.
• 39:13
  Whatever it is,
• 39:14
  that's a nice way cause if all those people wind up winning,
• 39:17
  Maybe you'll win the Senate Fantasy League.
• 39:19
  2500 bucks at stake for first prize.
• 39:21
  Uh,
• 39:22
  lots of prizes.
• 39:22
  Everyone in the top 100 wins something.
• 39:24
  Lots of really cool stuff there.
• 39:26
  We put together this little explainer video.
• 39:27
  If you missed my thing,
• 39:28
  uh,
• 39:29
  earlier.
• 39:29
  This is a quick,
• 39:30
  easy way
• 39:31
  to understand it,
• 39:31
  but get your teams in.
• 39:32
  This is gonna be lots of fun.
• 39:34
  Senate Fantasy.com.
• 40:30
  All right,
• 40:30
  predictable postmortem is here.
• 40:32
  We'd like to look at some positions we talked about on the show.
• 40:35
  How do they resolve?
• 40:36
  Uh,
• 40:36
  sometimes they don't,
• 40:38
  you know,
• 40:38
  resolve from weeks and weeks or months and months.
• 40:40
  And I wanna keep you updated on the positions that
• 40:42
  we talked about and the positions that we took.
• 40:45
  Trump media advisor Katie Zakaria.
• 40:48
  Named White House press secretary.
• 40:49
  Can't say I knew who,
• 40:50
  uh,
• 40:50
  Katie,
• 40:51
  uh,
• 40:51
  very well,
• 40:52
  uh,
• 40:52
  before this.
• 40:52
  We will all,
• 40:53
  I'm sure,
• 40:53
  get to know her
• 40:54
  in the coming months.
• 40:55
  Um,
• 40:56
  one of,
• 40:56
  one of our big plays here was to go no on Scott Jennings.
• 41:00
  Of course,
• 41:00
  he's the CNN commentator,
• 41:01
  not because I,
• 41:02
  I mean,
• 41:02
  I honestly think Jennings would be actually a very good.
• 41:05
  Uh,
• 41:05
  candidate for that job.
• 41:07
  Um,
• 41:07
  however,
• 41:08
  he's doing very well on his own.
• 41:09
  He's got his own kind of private thing going.
• 41:11
  He's making lots of money.
• 41:12
  He's got a high profile,
• 41:13
  he got his own show,
• 41:14
  uh,
• 41:14
  lots of,
• 41:15
  he's got a really good life and the life as a press secretary,
• 41:18
  especially for someone.
• 41:19
  I mean,
• 41:20
  you have to just be dedicated to it.
• 41:21
  Like it has to be the thing you've always wanted to do,
• 41:23
  to do it.
• 41:24
  Uh,
• 41:24
  if you are a person
• 41:25
  who's young and up and coming,
• 41:26
  like I guess Katie is,
• 41:27
  uh,
• 41:27
  that might be more of an attractive position,
• 41:29
  but I think life is misery in that freaking job,
• 41:31
  uh,
• 41:31
  to be honest with you,
• 41:32
  no matter what party or president is there.
• 41:34
  Um,
• 41:34
  so we had that,
• 41:35
  and let me show you that market,
• 41:36
  by the way.
• 41:36
  You can see here,
• 41:37
  there's some an investigation going on.
• 41:39
  Um,
• 41:39
  if you see that green light straight up,
• 41:41
  that's your girl,
• 41:42
  Katie.
• 41:42
  Uh,
• 41:43
  give me the last,
• 41:43
  uh,
• 41:44
  month or so here,
• 41:45
  Adam,
• 41:45
  if you could.
• 41:46
  Um,
• 41:46
  you see,
• 41:47
  really she was at 0%.
• 41:49
  I guess she was on there,
• 41:50
  but
• 41:50
  really no chance and just shot up to 100% as,
• 41:52
  you know,
• 41:53
  there's no real predictive,
• 41:54
  uh,
• 41:55
  uh,
• 41:55
  percentage on this one,
• 41:57
  per se.
• 41:58
  She was a long shot and she won.
• 41:59
  Um,
• 42:00
  so there is some investigation on some people who placed oddly timed,
• 42:03
  um.
• 42:05
  Uh,
• 42:05
  wagers on this,
• 42:06
  uh,
• 42:06
  if you will,
• 42:07
  last minute.
• 42:07
  I don't know if they knew.
• 42:08
  I don't know if it's a wager
• 42:09
  or an investment,
• 42:10
  if you know what the outcome is.
• 42:11
  Uh,
• 42:12
  again,
• 42:12
  they were very small.
• 42:13
  We're talking about like $1000 and they're investigating them,
• 42:15
  but,
• 42:16
  you know,
• 42:16
  I guess you,
• 42:17
  no matter what the title,
• 42:18
  you should not be insider trading.
• 42:19
  If you happen to be doing that,
• 42:20
  don't do it.
• 42:21
  But we said no on Jennings because it was the hype one.
• 42:23
  I liked going against the hype and I also like going against a guy who had a very cushy,
• 42:27
  nice lifestyle,
• 42:28
  not wanting to take a terrible job.
• 42:29
  So we won on that.
• 42:30
  If you held,
• 42:31
  held it,
• 42:31
  it got a little rough,
• 42:32
  a little bumpy there for a while,
• 42:34
  but we were excited to hold on to that.
• 42:35
  And another one,
• 42:36
  again,
• 42:36
  I,
• 42:36
  I want you to be,
• 42:37
  to be honest with you,
• 42:37
  I know nothing about the WNBA.
• 42:39
  I know,
• 42:39
  I know Caitlin Clark.
• 42:41
  I know Sophie Cunningham.
• 42:42
  I know a couple of people,
• 42:43
  uh,
• 42:43
  in the league.
• 42:44
  But I do know politics and I do know
• 42:47
  that league.
• 42:48
  And there was no freaking way.
• 42:49
  They're gonna give the face to the girl,
• 42:52
  um,
• 42:53
  boys can't play in girls sports movement in the
• 42:55
  WNBA whether she wants that title or not.
• 42:57
  I don't think she does.
• 42:58
  Uh,
• 42:58
  she,
• 42:58
  I mean,
• 42:59
  she believes it,
• 43:00
  but I don't think she's trying to be known for that per se.
• 43:02
  She's just been asked about it a bunch of times,
• 43:04
  but Sophie Cunningham was not going to get an award from this freaking league.
• 43:07
  Of all leagues in the world,
• 43:08
  they were not gonna give Sophie,
• 43:09
  I don't care if she averaged 80 points a game,
• 43:11
  they were not going to give her an award.
• 43:13
  So we said no on Sophie Cunningham
• 43:15
  for the 6th
• 43:16
  player of the Year,
• 43:17
  I believe is what they call it in the WNBA.
• 43:19
  And
• 43:19
  Valkyrie's Janelle Stallone.
• 43:22
  Uh,
• 43:22
  wound up winning.
• 43:23
  Uh,
• 43:24
  now,
• 43:24
  I don't even think that,
• 43:24
  honestly,
• 43:25
  Sophie Cunningham really should have been the award
• 43:27
  winner looking at the stats at least.
• 43:29
  Um,
• 43:29
  but
• 43:30
  the fact is they were never going to give her that award.
• 43:32
  Let me give you the,
• 43:32
  uh,
• 43:33
  the,
• 43:33
  the market here and what that looked like.
• 43:34
  You see,
• 43:35
  Sophie Cunningham did strike up,
• 43:36
  right?
• 43:36
  We were telling you to,
• 43:38
  to,
• 43:38
  to buy some no,
• 43:39
  uh,
• 43:40
  right around her high.
• 43:41
  I think that was about 18,
• 43:42
  19% we were saying no.
• 43:44
  I think it looked like it popped up for a second there at about 25% at the peak.
• 43:48
  Uh,
• 43:48
  but really,
• 43:48
  I don't think she ever had a chance to win,
• 43:50
  unfortunately,
• 43:51
  for her.
• 43:52
  Uh,
• 43:52
  and,
• 43:52
  uh,
• 43:53
  even though that was the last market had $7.6 million in it,
• 43:56
  this one has $65,000 in it.
• 43:57
  But
• 43:58
  there's opportunities in both styles.
• 44:00
  Big markets,
• 44:00
  small markets,
• 44:01
  we look for all of them
• 44:02
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  join us on the site.
• 44:07
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• 44:08
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• 44:10
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• 44:12
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• 44:20
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