Latest / Toadstool Sports / Monday BEST BETS | College Basketball Championship & MLB & NHL & NBA | 4/6/26

Transcript

Monday BEST BETS | College Basketball Championship & MLB & NHL & NBA | 4/6/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four, I have
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man with wookends the slump
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached a
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my Brouins hat Man.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Arch eight? Is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: know it's It's March ninth. I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what data is anymore. But I don't
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could possibly have with you,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: as I always am until I die, at least oh two.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Yesterday and yesterday it did not go well for me.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: my eighteen years doing this. I don't know what to
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: even tell you about this anymore. The slump, the slump discontinuous,
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: even know what I should do at this point other
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody? It's towed
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: back with you with Toadstool Sports Monday, April sixth, We
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: got a I got a little ticker on the bottom.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Now you thought I was gonna say something about my
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: heart I got. I got a little ticker ticker issue here.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Can I have a heart attack live on stream? Gonna die? Maybe? Actually,
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I do. I do have some I
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: have a congenital art depend There you go, baby, Love
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: having that h functionally bicusped aortic valve. Yeah, I'm gonna
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: die sooner because of that. Uh two and zero on
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: the show yesterday, four and oh over the last two days.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: So there you go. Uh, we're gonna start slumping again,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: don't worry. Pittsburgh Pirates easy win yesterday, no sweat with
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: that under in Cincinnati, Texas first five innings easy, That
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: full game went under as well, Love having two no
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: sweat winners. I was also correct about the strongest hockey
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: leans that I had yesterday. I was correct about Uh.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: I think maybe both college basketball games as well. Uh,
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: the strongest opinion as well. So I should have just
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: fired on everything. We would have a monster day. The
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: books would be out of business. Man. Yeah, I'm gonna
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: try to keep it, keep it going, man. But I
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: don't like the baseball board today. So right as of now,
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: I don't have any baseball plays, which is pretty rare,
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: especially on a day where there's a fairly big baseball board.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: It's bigger than you would think for a Monday. Usually
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Monday there isn't that much. I'm gonna go over it
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: and if I see anything while i'm breaking it down,
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: maybe I'll add something. But as of now, I'm kind
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: of I'm skipping it. And then I hit my my
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: hat here. I hate, dude. I this these headphones like
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: right on top of the buckle, on the top of
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: the hat. Like it hurts, man, it fucking hurts, especially
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: for a bald man like me. I'm gonna have a
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: hole in the top of my head when this is
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: all done. Coast Celtics. I don't know what was I said.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what else I was saying. Yeah,
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna give out a play in the College basketball Championship.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: I'm worried. Sometimes when you're worried, you know, it's maybe
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: it's the best situation to get a win. I don't know,
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: and I do have an NBA play. I know it's
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: been a while and I'm skipping hockey. Hockey is just
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: ugly today, So that's what's going on. Josh, what's up?
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: One for five? How did that happen? What? I don't know, man,
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: I guess you didn't watch my show yesterday. Kyle, what's up?
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out? Oh thank you. It took me
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: two seconds. I don't know. I don't know why I
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: haven't been doing that already. And it's Neon Green, so
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: it's as annoying as possible. I'm gonna just take these
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: headphones off. I'm done with that shit. I usually don't
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: have them on. I like to be unencumbered, man, I
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: like to be naked on the show, all right, although
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: I have a hoodie on. It's kind of cold out
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: today up in New England here, dude, the temperature will
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: be like seventy one day, thirty five the next seventy
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: the next thirty five. Again, it's insane. All right, let's uh,
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: let's get into baseball here. I know I'm going a
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: little bit early today, but I woke up early and
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: I'm like, all right, let's just do the show. Let's
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: let's get it done. Man. Oh man, Well, I had
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: my show. It went well yesterday on the show, on
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: the show for me, but I probably should have added
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: more plays, but you know me, I'm trying to be
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: like really selective here, but I gave it a lot
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: of good leans on the show yesterday. All Right, this
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: baseball board today, though, I'm struggling with it. Man, I am.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: I don't have any plays right now, like I said,
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: while I'm breaking it down, because I broke it all
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: down last night. And if I see something that I
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: might elevate to a play, I guess I might do
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: that live here on the show. Hold on a clean
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: my glasses here. This is gonna be the longest intro
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: before I get into the games that I've had in
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: a while. All Right. I also think I shouldn't have
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: the ticker scrolling like during the intro, that I should
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: throw it up once the show actually starts. I'm figuring
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: it out. Man. All right, we have Cubs in Tampa
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: Bay now. Usually I like like Mondays and Thursdays or whatever,
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: because you have these new series starting and you can
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: find more situational angles with teams traveling, you know, versus
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: teams not traveling or whatever. There is an angle here
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: where the Cubs played at Double Headery yesterday, so the
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Cubs bullpen is not in good shape. I should probably
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: them in on this again. Do that the Cubs use
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: a lot of relief pictures yesterday and they use the
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: majority of their bullpen because they had to play two
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: games yesterday, so that's a disadvantage to them. Tampa Bay
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: only played one game, so Chicago. They're coming in from Cleveland,
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: so they are having to travel Tampa Bay. This is
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: very interesting for them because this is their home opener
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: back in Tropicana Field. Normally I'd be looking at Tampa
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: Bay and saying, well, they're returning home from a long
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: road trip, and you know me, this applies to every
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: daily sport. When a team returns home from a road trip,
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: generally it's a bad spot. They have to get back
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: to home life. You know, they might be distracted. In
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: this case though, I don't know, because they're playing the Cubs,
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: so they might get up for the Cubs. They are
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: coming off a win over Minnesota, but I don't think
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: that's really a big deal. Minnesota not good. But the
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: other thing, like I was alluding to, Tampa Bay did
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: not play in Tropic Canna Field at all last year
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: because it had been destroyed by the hurricane prior to
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: last season. So this is their home opener back in
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: Tropic Canna Field. So I think this will be a
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: big deal and that probably will be a motivating motivating
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: factor here for Tampa Bay. So I'm not really buying
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: into the Yeah, it says it's in Tropic Cannon Field here,
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: so I'm not really buying into the fading of the
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: return home spot in this case. Really, I'd be more
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: apt to want to fade the Cubs here because they
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: played two games yesterday. Tampa Bay might have this big
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: deal around this home opener here. As far as the
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: bullpens are concerned, I mean, Tampa Bay, they really are
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: not off to a good start. They've had the second
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: worst bullpen in Baseball based on whips, so that is
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: a concern. But because the Cububs, even though their bullpen
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: is better. The Cubs use so much of their bullpen yesterday,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: and they've been mid tier years so far this year.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: I think it kind of swings the advantage to Tampa
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Bay a little bit there. Hitting wise, I think you
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: got to give Chicago a hitting edge here, but that
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: might not be enough to give them the edge in
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: the game overall. James and Tie on his pitching for
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: the Cubs. People are gonna look at say, oh, he
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: has a zero ERA. That's good. Yeah, but he only
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: went four to two thirds against a pretty bad Anaheim team.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: He gave up no runs, but he walked four guys
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: in that outing, so that's not exactly good. Although I
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: do think he generally, I do think he is a
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: decent pitcher. Though against Tampa Bay his numbers are mediocre
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: and fifty three at bats two forty five average allowed
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: is not bad. Seven to fifty one ops is a
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: little bit on the higher side. He's all had three
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: home runs to them two to mullins six to four
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio is not particularly good at all. He's
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: going up against Shane McClanahan. I talked about him the
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: last time he made a start here. He had him
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: pitched its twenty twenty three. Dude, he had like multiple
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: injuries and setbacks trying to come back from injury, and
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: throughout the early part of his career he was actually
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: a really really good pitcher, and then everybody just kind
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: of forgot about him because he had all these injuries.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: He didn't pitch for two seasons. Now he's back and
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: he actually made a good start. I mean it was
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't know if I want to
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: say it was good, but it was good enough against
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: a difficult Milwaukee lineup. They took him out before he
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: was able to get to the five inning mark. There,
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: he did take a loss in the game. He walked
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: three guys, which is kind of a concern, but he
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: only allowed two runs to earned runs, two hits, allowed
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: four and two thirds four strikeouts, So most of his
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: numbers were pretty good except for the walks. But if
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: you look at his overall career numbers, he's been good.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: Now the question is like we still don't really know
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: yet how well he's gonna pitch returning from all the injuries,
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: you know, that's the whole thing. Like he's in his
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: late twenties. I think he had Tommy John surgery, because
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: that's usually the case with all these pitchers. Some pictures
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: will bounce back, some pictures won't, And I think it's
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: still kind of up in the air whether he's going
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: to or not. But I really like his stats throughout
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: his career, though they're all really good. Going up against
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: the Cubs here, he's done well in twenty two at bats,
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: seven strikeouts, two walks, one thirty six batting average five
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: to twenty seven ops allowed. So I think I took
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: too long to break down this game. But I do
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: like Tampa in this game. The money is not really
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: agreeing with me. Tampa flip from plus one thirteen to
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: minus won ten Cubs, fifty eight percent of the tickets,
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: eighty three percent of the cash on the Cubs. Looks
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: like the money is indicating on the Cubs. I don't
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: really see it. I like Tampa. My concerns are is
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: McClanahan gonna actually return to form or do that for
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: the most part, Like we've seen other guys like Brandon Woodruff,
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: who was also pitching today, by the way, and actually
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: pitched against McClanahan in the in the last their last starts,
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: We've seen guys like that actually return to form and
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: do it really well. So that might happen with McClanahan,
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: but I think I don't know, it's just the jury's out.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: I don't love that Tampa's returning home from a road trip,
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: So for those reasons, I'm gonna pass on the game.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: But I would lean to Tampa Bay in that game.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: I think there's there are more positives for Tampa Bay,
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: and once you get into the bullpens, I think they
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: start to have an advantage. Because Chicago used everybody out
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: of their bullpen yesterday, and speaking of that, Kansas City
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: and Cleveland Cleveland did the same thing, although at least
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: for Cleveland, they're staying at home. But they played two
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: games against the Cobs yesterday, so that's questionable. They used
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: a lot of their bullpen yesterday. They actually won the
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: series against the Cobs, which is pretty big. Cleveland actually
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: played pretty well to start the season. Cleveland literally used
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: their entire bullpen, every relief pitcher on their roster bitch yesterday,
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: so that's not good for them. I don't know if
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to I don't know, man, because
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: I think when you have the doubleheader I think you're
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: allowed to call players up for that and then you
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: have to send them right back down again. But I
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: don't know. They're gonna be playing Kansas City here. Kansas
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: City starting a road trip here. Kansas City also used
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: four relief pitchers yesterday, which is not exactly great. They
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: had a pretty close game against Milwaukee, pretty difficult series yesterday.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: Now they're leaving and going to Cleveland. Sometimes starting a
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: road trip is good, though, and you will be focused
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: to start the road trip. But they are coming up
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: a pretty big game against Milwaukee yesterday. This will be
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: a big game too, though. I mean, these two teams
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: are projected to basically be second and third in this division,
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: so this will be a big game for both teams.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: I think, so focus shouldn't really be an issue here.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: Michael Walker pitching for Kansas City. He was supposed to
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: start over the weekend and he was sick, so his
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: start got pushed back to today. I guess he pitched
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: well against the Braves in his first start of the season.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: Six innings, pitch nowhere and runs allowed, three hits, allowed
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: seven strikeouts, which is more than you usually get from him.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: In one walk walka He's more of a command guy.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: He usually doesn't get that many strikeouts, but he usually
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: does pitch pretty consistently well. Going up against Cleveland here,
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: they're not the greatest lineup. He's a lot of two
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: forty four batting ours, six thirty two ohps to them
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: in ninety at bats, twenty one strikeouts, nine walks. That
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: ratio is not that good, but decent sized sample here,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: and his numbers have been pretty good against Cleveland. So
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: I'm not really concerned with Waka here. It's just a
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: matter of because he's a little bit off schedule because
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: of the illness, because he was down with the sickness,
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: is that gonna throw him off Because usually you like
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: these pitchers to be consistent, right like, they like to
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: get in rhythm, and when their schedule gets thrown off
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: sometimes that's bad. But with a guy like Walka, who's
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: a veteran like I don't think it's gonna really be
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: a huge issue for him. He's going up against Tanner Biby,
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: who is He's made two starts already the season hasn't
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: really gone deep into either one. He's had a good
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: strikeout rate eleven strikeouts and nine innings. He's been mediocre
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: to start the season, but he faced Seattle and the Dodgers.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: Those are not easy lineups to face, although Seattle was
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: in a picture from the park. At Seattle, he held
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers in his most resents start to one ear
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: and run in four innings, which is not too bad,
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: although he didn't last that long in the game. Now,
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: I have to keep switching the teams here because when
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: we transition to the new series, ESPN does an update
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: right away. Against the Royals, He's been pretty good in
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: ninety seven at bats, very similar numbers to walk actually
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: too many walks twenty two to twelve. Strikeout walk ratio
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: two sixteen average allowed six eighty four ops. So both
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: pitchers have done pretty well in this matchup in the past.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: The money is indicating on Kansas City. Cleveland is at
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: minus one thirteen seventy percent of tickets only fifty nine
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the the Indians side. Here,
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: I probably will agree like Cleveland. I mean, they burned
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: out their entire bullpen yesterday, so I think that could
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: become a pretty major disadvantage here. So I'm not gonna
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: disagree with Kansas City here. Starting a road trip, you know,
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: it is a focused spot, so I'll agree with that lean.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: The pitching matchup seems pretty even though, and there is
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: some money coming in on the under, so I wouldn't
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: really disagree with it under, but I would probably want
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: to limit it to first five innings man, because even
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: though Cleveland's bullpen is good, Kansas City's bullpen is not
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: off to a good start. Cleveland used their entire pen yesterday,
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: like I said, so I'd be really worried about a
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: full game under in this one. Maybe first five inning
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: under makes sense. With a decent starting pitching matchup here,
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: you'd probably be on you know, the edge a little
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: bit there with like a probably a three or three
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: and a half would be the number there, So that
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: would concern me a little bit. But those are my
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: thoughts on that game. I think probably the stronger approach
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: is the Kansas City side in that game. Zach, what's up?
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: You're biased? Though, I think, yeah, the spot is better
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: for Kansas City in that game. Cincinnati at Miami. Cincinnati,
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: they're coming in for Texas. They just swept Texas. Could
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: be a little bit of a let down here, but
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: Miami just beat the Yankees yesterday, so even though they
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: lost the series. Miami is coming off a big win.
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: They're returning home from New York. It was a single
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: series road trip. But you could make the argument both
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: teams are kind of in letdown spots here, so situationally,
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: I don't see a huge advantage one way or the
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: other both teams are traveling. As far as the bullpens
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: are concerned. Miami has been good in that department to
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: start the season, and they've been a good offense too, which,
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: by the way, I forgot to mention Kansas City and Cleveland,
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: both offenses are not good. I don't even know which
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: team I would give the edge to. Looks like I'm
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: looking real quick here to see where they fall in
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: ops here, Cleveland has been worse than Kansas City, it
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: looks like, So do with that information what you want.
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: I guess Kansas City actually has hit fairly well, believe
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: it or not, this year, so Kansas City probably does
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: have an offensive edge in that game. For what that's worth.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: That just kind of indicates more on the Kansas City
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: side there. For Cincinnati and Miami, I'm not convinced that
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: Miami is actually the better offense, even though they've hit
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: well to start the season, the Reds have not been
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: as good. So if you want to go on recent form, yeah,
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: Miami has been the better offense. But you know, over
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: the course of the season, I think that might change.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't even know where are the Reds.
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: I don't even know where the fuck they are. Yeah,
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: they're way down to the bottom. So Miami has been
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen and the better offense to start the
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: season at the very least. Now, as far as the
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: bullpen usage yesterday, early season, man, these small sample size
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: has just thrown me off because I don't think you
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: really take that much away from it yet. Cincinnati has
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: four relief pitchers. Yesterday Miami used five. It looks like
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: so Miami they're bullpen is a little bit of a
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: rest disadvantage. I don't like Cincinnati starter here though. We
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: faded him on the show. In his last start, Brandon Williamson,
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: he lost to Pittsburgh. We gotta win on the show
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: with that one. He gave up three home runs and
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: six earned runs in less than five innings. Not a
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: good outing from Williamson. I didn't trust him, man, he
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: had to pitch his twenty twenty four his career numbers
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: are okay, but he's not like the greatest pitcher. Although
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: he you know, you probably gotta argue that he probably
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: won't do this badly again, so maybe he will bounce
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: back from that. It was his first start in quite
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: a while, so maybe you got to give him a
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: little bit of a pass for that. I still don't
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: like him though nothing personal. Miami hasn't really seen much
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: of him. But Austin Slater is three for six with
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: a home run off him Lifetime had two strikeouts and
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: those are the only at bats that they have against him.
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: So Slater has hit him well. But you could argue
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: he has a little bit of an advantage here because
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: Miami is not familiar with him. Jansen Junk is pitching
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: from Miami. Uh. He his numbers don't look that good.
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: To start the season. He pitched against the White Sox,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: although the White Socks have been better than expected so far. Uh.
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: They just swept the Blue Jays, so uh. Junk gave
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: up torn runs and four to third in that only,
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: but he did have a five to one strike a
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, so that's not that bad. Looking at his
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: numbers against Cincinnati here, I hate dude, I hate it
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: that ESPN doesn't update right away. His numbers against them
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: are really good. Actually it's only a small twenty six
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: at bat sample size though, but no extra base hits allowed,
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: six strikeouts, no walks, one fifty four batting average allowed,
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: three h eight ops, so junk. He's been good against Cincinnati. Man,
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: the money is coming in on Miami. They're opt to
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty six, sixty five percent of tickets ninety
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: seven percent of the cash on Miami. I mean, they're
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: in better form. And I can't really disagree that John
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: is better than Williamson at least right now, and you
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: could make the argument he does have the better matchup
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: as well, based on what we just looked at. So
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna disagree with the Miami side, but I
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: don't really feel that strongly about it. So I guess
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: I'll agree with the market and lean towards Miami. And
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: that one San Diego at Pittsburgh. San Diego just beat
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox, which I'm obviously not happy about. The
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: Red Sox blow a four nothing lead in that game.
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: Ron your Suarez can't hold the lead there after. As expected,
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: Walker Buehler sucked in that game for the Padres, you
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: had Manny Machado kicking the ball. If you saw that,
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: Suarez attempted like a pickoff or really just a you know,
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: a check throw to first base and the throw was
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: a little bit off, and Machado kicked the ball. Dude,
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: he should have been called out for that, like, you
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: can't fucking do that, and they and they didn't throw.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: They they didn't call him out for that. That should
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: be immediately you're out. You can do that like a
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: Rod's gloves slap. That's basically what it was. Machado is
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: such a cheap player, dude, He's a fucking bastard. Anyway,
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: San Diego is coming off of that. They're going to Pittsburgh.
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is hot right now. Man. Maybe I'm wrong, Maybe
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: the preseason hype was was legitimate. I don't know yet.
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: They did just sweep Baltimore. We did get a win
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: yesterday with Pittsburgh. They're staying at home. Pittsburgh might look
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: a little too good right now, but you know, you
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: can't argue with what they've done so far. Pittsburgh, they
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: only used two relief pitchers yesterday, so that's good. San
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: Diego probably does have the better bullpen, but they used
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: a lot of it. Yesterday they used five relief pitchers,
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: so even though I think San Diego has a better bullpen,
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: that kind of evens out a little bit. San Diego's
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: offense has been really bad to start the season, although
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: yesterday they did do better. So hey, they moved out
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: of the bottom spot and now it's the Giants in ops.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: But the Pirates, believe it or not, have had the
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: better offense out of the two teams so far. Pirate's
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: actually a top ten offense based on OPS to start
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: the season. Starting pitching also, like, I look at this
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup and I'm like, this is like a
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: clear advantage to the Pirates here. With Herman Marquez pitching
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: for the Padres, I don't think he's good. His first
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: start was pretty bad, and it was in San Diego.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: He used to be on Colorado, so it should be
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: better for him to be pitching in San Diego, a
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: much more pitcher friendly park. But he gave up four
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: and runs in three innings. Eight hits allowed to the
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: worst offense in baseball right now, the Giants. One strikeout,
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: one walk. That is not an impressive outing at all.
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: So you know, I'm I don't think Marquez is good man.
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: You know, I know, shocking against Pittsburgh, though he has
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: really good numbers somehow in twenty seven at bats one
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: to eleven, batting average allowed for eighty five. Yes, the
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: walk number is not good though, six strikeouts, four walks.
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: I still don't trust Marquez and he's going up against
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: Bubba Chandler. You know, I'm a fan, especially because we
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: got a win playing on him in his last game.
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: But it's not all good for him. His zero era
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: looks awesome. I think he is a very, very talented
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: young pitcher. He looked really good in September to finish
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: the season. Last year. He had some issues in that
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: win that we got with him. In his first outing,
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: he no hit Cincinnati through four and a third and
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: give up nowhere in runs. So that sounds awesome six strikeouts.
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: The problem was he also walked six guys, so he's
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: got a you know, he's got some wild wildness concerns there.
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: But you know, maybe it was just because it was
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: the first start of the season. Maybe he was just
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: a little bit off. I think he's got good stuff.
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: You can see what he did do. He didn't walk
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: anybody in his final three starts in September last year
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: over like nineteen or twenty innings or something like that,
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: or no, I think it was I don't remember sixteen seven.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: Whatever it was, Chandler, I think is legit, dude. So
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: I do like the Pirates of this game. Again. They're
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: up to minus one thirty years, seventy eight percent of tickets,
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: ninety four percent of the cash on the Pirates. If
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: you want to exclude the bullpens, you could go first
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: five inning with this one. I don't have a strong
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: enough opinion on this, but pirates, I mean full game.
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: I think is also okay because San Diego used a
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: lot of their bullpen yesterday. But yeah, I like the
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: Pirates in that game. Again, I like the Pirates. Man.
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: Maybe maybe the Pirates are actually good. I don't know.
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: They got a lot of young talent. Man Milwaukee at
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: my boss at Red Sox, Yeah, that's just great. Milwaukee
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: just beat the Royals. They're coming in from Kansas City,
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: so they are having to travel. Red Sox at least
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: have an advantage where they're staying at home, so at
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: least there is that Milwaukee's been the better team to
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: start the season. They've had the better offense than the
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: Red Sox, they've had the better bullpen than the Red Sox.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: So do with that information what you want. I think
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: maybe the gap will close a little bit there. But
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee's had all those edges and I think they have
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: the better starting pitcher here as well. Just you look
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: at who the pitchers are and it's like this is
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: this is such a bad matchup for the Red Sox.
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: Brandon Woodruff, who I just mentioned a little while ago,
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: pitching from Milwaukee. He came back after missing at least
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: one entire season with an injury, came back, made twelve
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: starts last year and he basically was right back to
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: where he was prior to the injury. Very impressive. He
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: was very good. Had an extremely high strikeout rate last year.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: He's a legit pitcher man. He's good. He started this
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: season with a pretty good start against Tampa Bay. Six strikeouts,
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: no walks, went five innings, was very efficient only through
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: sixty seven pitches, held him to tour and runs that
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: were somehow both on solo home runs. He's face of
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox. Here his numbers against the Red Sox
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: pretty much dominant thirty one at bats, only four of
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: their hitters have ever faced him before. Catrera is very
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: familiar with him because he was in the same division
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: last year, and he's only two for nineteen off him
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: with seven strikeouts. Overall, he's got a ten to two
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio against the Red Sox one twenty
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: nine average allowed, four nineteen ops. So Woodruff has done
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: well against the Red Sox and they're not that familiar
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: with him. Brian BeO is pitching for the Red Sox.
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: Not a fan. I think he way overperformed last year.
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: His RRA made him look pretty good, but he is not.
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: You know, if you listen to the guys that look
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: at the metrics, they'll tell you his underlying metrics absolutely blow.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: Like his RRA should have been in the mid foes
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: last year. He puts way too many guys on base.
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: He gets away with it because he gets a lot
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: of ground ball outs, which is good for pitching him Fenway,
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: but he's really not a good pitcher, Dude, He's not.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: And I sometimes I beef with the analytics guys on BAO.
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: I don't I agree with them because I look at
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: whip and his whip is always a disaster, and obviously
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: it is right now. Two point three six, Yeah, that's
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: not a good whip, although that's only one start this year,
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: but last year I think it was like one point
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: three something, so still not good. He got pretty much
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: hammered against Houston in his first start. I know Houston's
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: been one of the best offenses in baseball to start
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: the season. Don't even know how that's the case, but
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: he allowed five and runs to them on three walks,
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: eight hits and four and two thirds put eleven guys
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: on base in that s Man, you can't do that, man,
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: I only had two strikeouts. I'm not expecting a great
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: season from Bao. Man. It's just good that the Red
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: Sox shoved him to the bottom of the rotation maybe
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: take the pressure off a little bit. But the one
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: good thing he's got going for him, his numbers are
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: good against the Brewers. In thirty two at bats, six
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: to four strike a walk ratio that's not good. That's
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: the only thing that's not good. But three of those
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: walks are bowers, so he might pitch around him to
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: some extent. He's held the Brewers to one to eighty
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: eight batting average on five ninety ops, so Bao has
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: actually been okay against them. I still lean to Milwaukee
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: in this game, but the money is disagreeing with me.
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee's up to minus one twelve seventy four percent of
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: tickets only sixty percent of the cash on them, so
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: the money is indicating on the Red Sox. I don't
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: really get it. I think in this current form, I
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: think Milwaukee pretty much has the advantage everywhere except for
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: the fact that I think they're The fact they have
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: to travel is like the only disadvantage here. The Red
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: Sox used three relievers yesterday, by the way, Milwaukee used four,
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: so I guess if you want to count that as
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: a disadvantage, Okay, I guess, But other than that, I
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: don't see it. Man. I think the starting pitching matchup.
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: To me, I think it's a pretty big mismatch. Even
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: though Bayo does have good matchup numbers, I don't trust
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: them whatsoever. So yeah, I would lean to Milwaukee there.
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: I think maybe the thought is that maybe the Red
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: Sox are being undervalued right now. The thing about the
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: Red Sox kind of similar to I think it was
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: last year or the year before that the Red Sox
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: had a ton of close losses, and that is kind
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: of the case here they have They have like like
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: five of their losses I think are two or one
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: run losses something like that, if I just counted that correctly.
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: So the Red Sox do have a lot of close losses.
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: So they've been on the wrong side of a lot
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: of coin flips. All right, Saint Louis and Washington, this
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: is an awful matchup, dude. Both these teams are expected
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: to be awful. I know Saint Louis is above five
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: hundred right now. I don't know how. They just beat
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: Detroit yesterday to get a win in that series. That
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: was the night game. So a lot of times I
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: like to fade the team that was in the night game,
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: even though it's not a big ESPN night game anymore.
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: It's a Peacock Sunday night game. And now they have
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: to travel from Detroit to Washington. They beat Detroit yesterday,
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: so they're not exactly in the greatest spot, yere. But
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: Washington is also a pretty bad team. They're facing Washington.
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: Of course, Washington is staying at home. Washington's lost five
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: games in a row. Starting to play like the worst
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: team in baseball, which I think they probably are. I
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: think they might be worse than the Rockies, dude, I
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: think they're pretty clearly worse than the White Sox right now.
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: So not a whole lot to like with them. But
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: they did just lose to I mean, they played really
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: good teams to start the season though, Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers.
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, they probably had the most difficult schedule to
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: start the season. So the fact that they have three
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: wins is actually probably a win for Washington. Here, Washington's
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: bullpen is atrocious. Both these bullpens are bad, but Washington's
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: is slightly worse. Right now, as far as the hitting
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: is concerned, where are these teams? It looks like Washington, actually,
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: believe it or not, Washington's the fifth best ops in baseball,
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: which is ridiculous, so they're They're hitting has actually been
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: way better than Saint Louis's bullpen. Wise, Washington's four relief
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: pitchers yesterday, Saint Louis used four as well, So no,
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's really that much of an advantage
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: one way or the other there. Andre Paiante is pitching
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: for Saint Louis here, he's not good doing. I mean,
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: he looks good so far. He had a five inning
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: shutout against the Mets in his opener, but he walked
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: three guys. I'm not sold on him at all. I dude,
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: I think he sucks, to be honest. Too many walks
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: in that outing too. He gets a little bit of
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: a better match up here though, because Washington sucks. But
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: his numbers are not terrific against them. In forty five
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: at bats nine to one strike a walk ratio is good,
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: three to eleven batting average is not good. Three to eleven. Yeah,
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: there you go. Decent band from back in the day.
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: Six eighty two ops is really not that high though,
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: So he's a lot a ton of scene goals basically
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: to them, so hard to read those numbers. Man a
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: lot of contact that he's given up, but not a
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: lot of power, which is something you don't usually see.
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Zach Lttel, who if you look
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: at his numbers, I think he's the more trustworthy pitcher generally,
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: even though his numbers don't look good so far. He
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: had to pitch at Philadelphia, which is not that easy,
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: and they gave up two of them runs, which kind
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: of ruined us outing a little bit. Give up three
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: on runs to them in five innings, which isn't really
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: that bad. But he had two strikeouts in one walk,
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: which is actually very Unlattel like because he usually does
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: not walk many guys. That's usually the one advantage that
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: he has, as his command is usually really good, but
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: he gets hit kind of hard, usually Lattel against Saint Louis.
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: Here he's on into a two sixteen batting average, a
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: six ZHO eight oh ps and fifty one at bats,
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: and his Lattel esque strikeout walk ratio is there in
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: his matchup numbers here eleven zero strike out walk ratio
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: against Saint Louis. So yeah, I'm gonna lean to Washington
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: in this game. Man, the money looks like it's disagreeing
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: again and coming in on Saint Louis. I like Washington here,
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: though Saint Louis up to minus one thirteen. Saint Louis
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: quick turnaround time off the night game, having to travel,
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: Washington's been the better offense so far. I think Lattel
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: is better than Payante, So yeah, I like Washington here. Man.
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: The bullpen's are pretty much asked, So if you want
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: to exclude Washington's bullpend and you know, if you think
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: it's really that bad, which maybe it is, you could
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: go first five inning on this. But I like Washington
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: here sixty six percent of tickets, ninety seven percent of
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: the cash on Saint Louis, however, so the money is
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: not agreeing with me on that game. All right, Uh,
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: Dodgers at Toronto. We have the World Series rematch beginning,
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: which you know, Toronto's gonna be up for this game. Man.
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: The Dodgers are having to come in from Washington. They're
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: coming off a sweep. It's a big series probably for
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: both teams. With the Dodgers might take Toronto a little
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: bit lightly. And you know, Toronto has this thing circle
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: because again they lost the World Series to the Dodgers
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: and they almost had it won. So I think Toronto
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: might have just fucked up in that series against the
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: White Sox because they were looking ahead to this series.
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: Toronto just got shut out in Chicago yesterday. So yeah,
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: they're traveling as well, but that's an embarrassing sweep at
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: the hands of the White Sox. Again, I think they
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: started looking ahead to this, man, So I think Toronto,
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: you know, yesterday. I said they wouldn't be looking ahead,
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: but I think that is what happened. Toronto's bats just
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: did absolutely nothing yesterday. Now we know both these offenses
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: are good, but we know the Dodgers they're probably the
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: best offense in baseball, so they do have the offensive
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: edge here. The Dodgers do. Bullpen wise, if you go
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: based off of last year, the Dodgers did not have
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: a very good bullpen this year. That has not been
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: the case so far. They have the third best bullpen
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: whip this year so far, so they have been the
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: better bullpen to start the season and Toronto's has not
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: been very good. They're bottom third bullpen so far this year.
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: So we'll see what direction that goes. But you might
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: have to give the Dodgers a slight bullpen edge here.
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: Toronto used three relief pitchers yesterday, Dodgers used four. That's
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a wash there. I think, starting
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: pitching wise, you know, I would like to jump on
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: Toronto here because I think Toronto's gonna be highly motivated
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: and they're coming off that really ugly sweep. But I
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: don't know about this pitching matchup. Man. I don't love
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: either of these pitchers. Dodgers are going with Justin Robleski,
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: who is kind of a guy that you know he
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: might go in there and not even give you a
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: full starter's workload. They held him to sixty pitches in
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: his last outing against Cleveland, which I don't even know
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: if that was a starter, if that was a relief appearance.
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: He was only mediocre and they gave up three runs.
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think that's pretty much what he is.
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: A mediocre pitch sure, so you know he's not a
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: guy that's gonna go in there and light it up
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: against Toronto. Toronto has twenty at bats against him, but
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: they're only hitting two point fifty off him five point
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: fifty oh ps, seven strikeouts, no walk, So Toronto has
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: not gotten the best of Robleski, so it might not
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: be the worst pitcher to throw out there for the Dodgers.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: Toronto's going with Max Schurzer, who did have a good
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: start to open the season. It was against Colorado at home. Colorado.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: We know their offense is actually putrid on the road typically.
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: He went six innings against them, held them to one
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: ear and run. I don't know how impressive that really is.
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: Four strikeouts, one walk schures are. I mean, maybe's gonna
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: be good at the beginning of the season and then
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: his age will show up later in the season, which
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: is kind of what happened last year. But last year
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: he only pitched I think like part of the season
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: last year, and his age still seemed to catch up
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: with him, and he wasn't good by the end of
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: the season. So I don't know what we're gonna get
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: out of shurs Aer here man, and he's going up
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: against a Dodgers lineup that definitely can hit. He's been
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: decent against them in the past one hundred and seventy
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: four at bats. But remember, a lot of this goes
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: back years with Shurser, So a lot of this, a
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: lot of these stats here go back to when Shurser
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: was younger and could still pitch more than he can now.
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: His walk numbers are bad against them, though forty eight
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: strike got twenty seven walks. That is a ton of walks.
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: It looks like he intentionally walks Freeman a lot, though
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: ten walks for Freeman to eighteen batting average a lot
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: is good. Seven to twenty ops is a little bit high. Again,
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: I would like to play Toronto here in this situation,
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: but I can't do it. I don't like the starting
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup. The money is coming into Toronto. For what
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: that's worth, the Dodgers are up to minus one forty
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: one for minus one fifteen sixty one percent of tickets
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: on the Dodgers. The public is not gonna be on
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: the Blue Jays right now. Man. They're gonna see the
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: Dodgers are off and running. Toronto's looked off recently, so
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: the public is not going to be on Toronto here.
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: Toronto fifty five percent of the cash on them. Definitely
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: could argue that maybe the Dodgers with Rebleski against a
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: Toronto team that should be solid this year. You could
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: definitely argue that the Dodgers should not be favored by
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: this much on the road. You know, the World Series
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: revenge aspect of it is real. So I'm not going
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: to disagree with taking Toronto in this one, but I
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: can't get there with it as a play man. You know,
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: if you want to do it, maybe you got more
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: balls than I do. Maybe maybe you got more balls
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: that strikes, But yes, I would lean to Toronto there,
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: you know, if you want to grab them as a
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: money line underdog there Baltimore at the White Sox. Baltimore
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: just got swept, so we have two that last game
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: that has talked about is too opposing sweeps playing each other,
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: and so is this. Baltimore just got swept in Pittsburgh
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: and now they're going to Chicago, so you're probably gonna
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: get a focused Baltimore team here because that was kind
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: of an ugly sweep. Chicago might be feeling really high
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: on themselves the White Sox after they just pulled off
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: a pretty inexplicable sweep over Toronto, except for the fact
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: that I think Toronto might have started looking ahead there.
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: White Sox could be in letdown model though they are
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: staying at home here. For Baltimore, we don't even know
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: who their starting pitcher is though, so that's gonna be
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: a problem trying to handicap this. I don't think I
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: could really put money on a game where you don't
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: even know who their starter is gonna be unless there's
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: really some good angle. Now, Baltimore only is one relief
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: pitcher yesterday for seven bitches, So Baltimore, their bullpen is
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: definitely intact coming into this game, so that's good for them.
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: The White Sox bullpen is generally not good, and they
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: use three relief pitchers yesterday, so Baltimore probably does have
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: a bullpen edge here. The White Socks have been the
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: fourth worst bullpen to start the season. Baltimore has been bad,
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: but not as bad as the White Sox Offensively, the
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: White Socks, I think it probably actually been the better team.
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: Let me see here. Nope, I'm actually wrong. Baltimore has
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: been slightly better offensively, so Baltimore does have a couple
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: edges here in this one man, we know that Grant
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: Taylor is listed as a start. Actually, I don't think
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: that's true. Hold on, it looked like Taylor was gonna
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: get an opener for the White Sox. But I think
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: I looked over here and yeah, it's actually gonna be
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: Eric Fetti. Pre game is more up to date than
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: than ESPN is, so I'm gonna trust Pregame on this.
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: I think Eric Fetti is actually probably starting. And you
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: know me, I don't like Eric Fetty at all. I
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: think he sucks. So we'll look at Eric Fetty's numbers here.
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: I think he's definitely fatable dude. He pitched okay against
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: Miami and his opener gave up three on runs at
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: five innings, four strikeouts, one walk. They lost the game
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: pretty badly. Fetti going up against who are we talking
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: about here, Baltimore. Yeah, his numbers against Baltimore are not
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: very good and forty at bats, six strikeouts, ten walks.
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: That is pretty bad. Granted it looks like he intentionally
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: walks Alonzo quite a bit. Six walks to Alonso, who
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: is eight for twenty two, often with four doubles. So
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: if you want player props, I recommend hits plus runs
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: plus RBIs because then a walk won't like totally ruin
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: the prop for you, like it will for total bases,
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: and total bases it doesn't count. So Alonso does hit
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: Fetti really well to sixty one batting average allowed overall
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: eight seventy one ohps a lot is quite high. So
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: Fetti not good against Baltimore. Baltimore. Again, it's very difficult
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: to want to jump on Baltimore here because we don't
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: know who their starting pitcher is. Situationally, I would agree
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: with Baltimore. They're sitting at minus one thirty seven right now.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: We at least know Baltimore has the more rested bullpend
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: the situation I think is better for Baltimore, like I said,
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: because they could be in a bounce back spot off
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: of that, off of getting swept. The White Sox might
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: be in let down mode after a big sweep from them.
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you wanted to blindly fire on Baltimore,
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't really disagree, but I you know me, I
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: don't want to do it when I don't know who
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: the starting pitcher is gonna be. I just you know,
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: I've probably done it before, but I just can't do
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: it there minus one thirty seven here, depending on who
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: Baltimore is gonna throw out there. I mean, an over
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: might make sense here. The total sitting at eight and
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: a half, it looks like it's teetering on nine. I mean,
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: we already pretty much know Fetti plus the White Sox
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: bullpen is probably gonna give up some runs Baltimore if
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: they're gonna go with like a bullpen game or something.
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: Even though their bullpen looks like it's rested, they're not
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: like totally trustworthy, so you know, I mean, an over
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: might make sense maybe even like blindly, the over might
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: make more sense than trying to jump on Baltimore there.
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: But the situation I think does favor Baltimore there, So
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: do with that information what you want to. You can
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: see why I was struggling to find any baseball plays here.
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: Detroit at Minnesota. Detroit played in the night game last night,
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: so they're having to travel on a quick turnaround. But
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: they lost the night game to a bad Saint Louis team,
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: and they're starting a road trip, so I think the
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: spot is not quite as bad for Detroit as it
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: is for Saint Louis here now knowing that the opposite
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: is gonna happen, probably, but yeah, Detroit starting a road
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: trip divisional series, maybe they will be focused. Minnesota should
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: be focused as well. I mean, they're staying at home
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: and they just took two losses to Tampa Bay. You
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: know they're not gonna overlook the team. It's supposed to
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: be the best team in the division. So I think
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: Minnesota will show up for this as well. You gotta
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: give Detroit some edges here, though. Minnesota's offense has been
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: really bad, so I think Minnesota's offense is bad. They're
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at bullpens right now. The bullpen is bad.
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: Detroit hasn't been great, but Detroit is the better bullpen.
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is just awful. I think Detroit must have the
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: better offense in here too, But let me say, yeah,
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is like a bottom six or seven offense here,
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: Detroit in the top half. So yeah, Detroit has the
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: better offense and the better bullpen here. They are the
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: better team. They might be a little bit under the
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: radar right now because they've started the season not that great.
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: Looking at the starting pitching matchup. On the surface, it
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: looks like it favors Minnesota somewhat significantly because it's Joe
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: Ryan against Casey Mize, But if you dig into the
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: actual stats, that might not be the case. The case
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: c Mize there you go. Mis actually had a good
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: start at Arizona. I think he had good numbers against
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: Arizona as well. I liked Detroit in that game, and
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: the bullpen completely blew the game for them. Now, Arizona
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: is a hitter friendly park and Arizona does still have
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: a pretty good offense. So the fact that mys went
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: six innings, gave up one on and run, nine strikeouts
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: in that game, two walks, four hits aloud, that's a
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: good outing from him. Man. Now he's going up against Minnesota,
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: who is not a good offense, and he's done well
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: against him in the past ninety two at bats, so
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: they have a lot of familiarity with him, but they
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: haven't hit him that well. Twenty two strike cuts, four walks,
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: that's a really good ratio. One ninety six batting average
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: allowed is very low. Six thirty one ops is a
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: little bit high because he has a lot of five
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: home runs in them, but other than that, he's done
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: a good job keeping Minnesota pretty much off the bases,
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: so he's done well against them. He's going up against
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: Joe Ryan, and we know Joe Ryan is Minnesota's ace.
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: He is a good pitcher. He's pitched twice so far
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: the season already, hasn't really gone that deep into the
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: outings yet, and didn't do well against Kansas City in
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: his last outing, give up nine hits, five in runs,
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: so they were able to knock him around. His command
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: was there, though. He hasn't walked anybody yet this sea. No, No,
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: he's walked two guys. My mistake. The stupid ESPN they
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: shift that. You know, the numbers don't line up. I
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: hate that. Yeah, he has ten walks, two strikeouts or
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: ten strike goes two the opposite would be awful. Ten
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: strike outs two walks so far of the season, so
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: Ryan's been okay, like his command numbers are good to
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: strike the season, but it looks you think he may
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: not be in the greatest of form right now, and
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: against Detroit he's actually not very good. In eighty seven
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: at bats. He does have a thirty to six strike
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: at walk ratio, which is good, but two seventy six
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: average alloted eight h five ohps, So his numbers against
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: Detroit are not particularly good. I like Detroit in this
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: one man, Joe Ryan or Minnesota is up to minus
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: one twenty two here fifty two percent of tickets on Minnesota,
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: fifty eight percent of the cash on Detroit. I know
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: Detroit's on the short turnaround time here off the night game,
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: so that's a little bit of a disadvantage. Maybe to them,
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: Minnesota should get up emotionally for it, whatever, but I
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: think the matchup favors Detroit. And look, the public's gonna
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: look at this and probably see Ryan versus Mize and
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: want to jump on Joe Ryan. Even though they're numbers
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: this season, Mize actually has the better numbers to start
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: the season, so maybe the public won't be as you know,
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: borish I guess on Jerry in here, but generally I
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna look at this and say, oh, Ryan
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: is way better than this Mize guy, who I don't
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: know much about right and I'm not a huge Maze fan,
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: but I think he has the advantage in that game. Actually,
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: so I actually think Detroit has an advantage in all
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: of the phases of that matchup, including the starting pitching,
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: but the situation is not exactly the best for them.
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: So I don't really want to put that one on
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: my card, but I do like Detroit in that game. Uh,
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: Seattle at Texas. Seattle just lost two games in Anaheim,
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: so they could be in bounced back mode after that.
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's ugly. Anaheim's not good. They're off to
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: a DECs start this season. But I mean Seattle, they're
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: right there in the thick of this division, man. I mean,
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: I would not put much weight into what's gone on
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: so far. Texas is ahead of them in the standings
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: right now, but Seattle is the better team. Texas is
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: coming off getting swept at home by Cincinnati. Though we
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: had win, I believe we had a win. Yeah on
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati first five innings in the second game, and then
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: yesterday we had the under in the first five innings,
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: so that series was very good to us. Texas very
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: pitcher friendly park. Maybe this will be another picture friendly
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: match up here. Seattle. They have a good bullpen and
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: they're really good at not using a lot of it
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: until yesterday where Seattle used a ton of it yesterday
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: and wound up still losing the game. They used five
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday, no wait, six, but one of them
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: for only three pitches. But yeah, Seattle's bullpen is not
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: well rested coming into this and Texas if they have.
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: You know, one good thing about Texas is their pitching
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: is good. But they used five relief pitchers yesterday as well,
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: so the bullpens I think are both pretty good. I
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: think it's kind of a wash bullpen wise here. I
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: think Seattle does have the better offense, even though maybe
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: it hasn't shown yet. Texas has actually been good offensively
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: to start the season, though. I think let me see
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: where are they at now. They're kind of middle of
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: the pack now actually, although Seattle has been off to
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: kind of a bad start offensively, but I'm not ready
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: to say that Texas is actually the better offense here
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: bullpens again, I think we're a little bit of a wash.
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: Maybe Texas has a slight edge there right now, just
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: because the rest is there. Kind of logan Gilbert pitching
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: for Seattle. He's not as good away from home, so
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: that's something you have to take into account. Last year
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: his RA was two and a half runs higher on
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: the road four point seven to four on the road.
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: Even though this is a pitcher friendly ballpark, Gilbert is
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: just not as good on the road. Most Seattle pitchers
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: are not, but Gilbert is one of the more extreme
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: examples of that. He's had an okay start to the season,
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: even though hiss, RA and whip don't look good. He
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: had to face the Yankees in his most recent outing,
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: which is not easy to do. He has a thirteen
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: to three strike at walk ratio though to start the season,
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: so that's not that bad. But again, he's not that
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: good on the road. It's Texas. His numbers are pretty
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: good and one hundred and twenty four at bats, so
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: he's seen a lot of them and they still haven't
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: hit him that well. Thirty seven to ten strike at
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: walk Ragiume probably too many walks there. One to eighty
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: five batting average allowed though very low. Five to seventy
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: seven OPS is also quite low. So generally Gilbert does
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: d well against Texas, but he's not as good on
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: the road. Jacob de Grom pitching for Texas. He finally
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: made his first start of the season. They didn't let
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: him go that many pitches in the game. He held
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: Baltimore to three on runs of four to two thirds,
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: which doesn't look that good. But he did have seven
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: strikeouts and no walks, so he was a little bit
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: too hittable, but his command was very good in the game.
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think he's still good until we actually
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: see a drop off from him. He had a good
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: season last year. I know he's getting up there in age,
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: but he still looked good last year. His numbers against
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: Seattle are you know, they're not great, but they're not horrible.
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: In seventy eight at bats, twenty six to twelve strike
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio that is too many walks. Two thirty
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: one batting average a lot is good, but seven fifty
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: six OPS is pretty high. So it is definitely a
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: mixed bag. Like on the surface, this looks like an
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: under type of game, but obviously I have some concerns
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: with it because I don't love de Gram's matchup numbers here.
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: I don't love Gilbert not being that good on the road. Uh.
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: Sixty seven percent of tickets are on the over, sixty
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash on the under, So the
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: money is playing the under here. The totals it's seven
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: and a half, not giving you a lot of room
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: for error here, and the bullpens are not rested. So
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: I really worry. Man, I do worry about an under
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: in that game, so you know, I mean, I wouldn't
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: really want to be on an over in the game,
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: but the under definitely. Uh, you know, I don't want
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: to like make that a play or anything like that,
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: even if I do have a slight lean towards the under,
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: and I'd probably try to keep it first five innings
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: because the bullpens are just so used right now. Texas
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: is taking the money. They're at minus one fifteen down
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: for minus one thirty sixty one percent of tickets, tinety
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash on them. Now. Seattley's in
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: bounce back mode theoretically because of that ugly series lost
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: to Anaheim, but the starting pitching matchup, you know, I
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: don't know, I kind of dueling to Texas in this game.
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: I think de Grom his matchup numbers are not like
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: terrible enough for me to be like, yeah, he's not
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: as good as Gilbert here, Like, I don't really trust
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: Gilbert that much and on the road especially, I really don't. So,
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: you know, I think I do agree with the market there.
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: Houston at Colorado. Houston, I mean they're at least used
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: to playing in a hit or from the environment because
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: they just had to play at the A's and they
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: had really high scoring games in that series. They just
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: lost twelve to ten yesterday, losing the series to the A's.
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: So Houston not pitching as well throughout that series, but
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: their hitting has been there still for the most part,
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: Houston has had had really good offense to start the
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: sea and and they're going to another very offensive environment
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: here and facing a team that doesn't pitch well in Colorado. Uh,
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: Colorado is coming off of I don't know what. I
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: think they're staying at home. Yeah, they beat Philadelphia yesterday,
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: they lost the series. They salvaged the last game of
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: the series. You know, I don't really have a good
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: feel for the side in this game, even though Houston
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: is obviously the better team generally. Uh, Colorado they use
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: three relief pitchers yesterday Houston used five, so Houston's bullpen
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: is not well rested. All. I still think Houston's bullpen
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: is probably the better one because Colorado's is just that bad. Uh.
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: And Houston I think has the better offense. I mean,
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: there's still actually the top offense in baseball right now
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: this season. Colorado just has been pretty weak, even though
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: Colorado usually is better offensively at home at the very least. Uh, actually,
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: where is Colorado? Yeah, they're the bottom ree in offense
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: right now, but usually they are at least a little
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: bit better at home at hitting than they are on
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: the road, which makes sense. And their bullpen is still,
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: I believe, pretty bad. I don't know where they're at here,
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: I dude, it's hard to read any of this thing.
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: Where the hell are the Rockies here? Oh? What, they're
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: actually sixth best bullpen whips so far. There's no way, dude,
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: There's just no way. Yeah, I'm not buying it. And
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: Houston's bullpen is twenty third. Yeah, Okay, that's based on whip.
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: This season so far seems kind of insane to me.
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't really trust Houston's bullpen that much though,
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: and their closer what's his name, hater? I think he's injured,
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: So I don't know. In Colorado, I don't trust their bullpen, man,
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: I just don't. Cody Bolton is pitching for uh Houston,
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: I guess today, not Michael Bolton. Uh. He made one
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: relief appearance I think so far the season against the
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: Red Sox and pitched well in three in had five strikeouts,
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: one walk, one and run aloud. Is he actually good?
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna guess no, because he's twenty seven. His overall
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: career stats are bad. But I don't think he's gonna
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: pitch that much in this game. Dude. He's been a
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: relief pitcher. He's never actually made a start before in
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: his career, so I don't think he's gonna go that
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: deep into this game. So I don't really trust Bolton here.
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: Colorado only has four at bats against him, though one
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: for four. Only three of their hitters have seen him
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: before one strikeout, no walks, So I guess you could
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: do with that information what you want. But I don't
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: trust Houston's set up here. Man, with the guy that's
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: probably not gonna give him that many innings, isn't that
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: good and then the unrested bullpen has to come in.
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: That seems bad. Ryan Feltner is pitching for Colorado here.
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: He's got an amazing zero ERA this season. Man, he
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: did well in his first start, and I'm not gonna
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: deny that he had three shutout innings against Toronto. One hit,
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: allowed four strikeouts, one walk. Maybe they should have left
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: him in longer. He only threw forty seven pitches. But
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: the fact that he seems to be on a pitch
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: count here is not great. Coming into this game. It
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: seems like they're not really unleashing him, even though I
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: think he's one of Colorado's better starters, better, you know,
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: being relative, but still going up against Houston though, who's
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: been ripping the cover off the ball, and Felton, there's
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: numbers against them are bad. In twenty eight at bats.
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: It's not a huge sample size, but he's got no,
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: no strikeouts against them, two walks. He's a lot of
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: four to twenty nine average and one thousand and one
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: eighty one ops to them. Christian Walker five for nine
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: with two doubles and two home runs off him, So again,
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: player prop potential there. The only way that I could
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: possibly look at this game is to play the over, dude.
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: I know we're getting one of these high totals in
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: course field with ten and a half, but I think
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: that's the way to look. Houston's at minus win now
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: down for minus two twenty. I would not want to
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: lay a price with Houston like that, with you know,
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: just untrustworthy pitching there too, sixty percent of tickets seventy
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: two percent of the cash on Houston. Yeah, I'm not
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: gonna buy into that too much looking at these guys
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: stats though, the starting pitchers here with a three R
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: and a zero ERA. The public might come in and
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: look at that and think that that means all those
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: pictures are actually like good or something, but that's not
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: the case. Not the case, man. I also wouldn't really
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: disagree with Houston to go over their team total here
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: if you wanted to do it that way, because they
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: light up Feltner and their offense has been really good
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: this season. But you know what, I kind of want
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: to add this. I like this one, dude, I actually
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: do hold on. Let me. See. I'm taking a look
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: at this right now in Action Network, which I do
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: pay for. I mean, the way they have things set
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: up I think is pretty helpful. Looking at the total here,
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: they have the money coming in on the under in
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: the Reds Marlins game, and then the next most is
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: the over in this game. You know what, Let's do it.
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: Let's not skip the baseball card today. Let's let's take
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: it over in this game. I know it's over ten
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: and a half, but I mean, come on, man, it's
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: the offense that's been the hottest offense in baseball. It's
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: a hitter friendly ballpark. The pitching looks like it's atrocious
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: in this game. Yeah, let's just do it. This is
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: the best bet, how about that? So there you go.
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: I told you I might. I might add one on
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: the fly. So we're gonna do it. This is Houston
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: Colorado over the first time. I'm playing it over, dude,
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: sometimes I do. I'm not all unders here, man. I
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: found it at minus one oh five actually too. So
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: there you go. That's gonna be the one baseball play
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: of the day. Houston Colorado over ten and a half.
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: There you go, all right? Hell yeah, our next game
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: up is Atlanta and Anaheim. Dude over an hour for
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: a somewhat shorter baseball board today. Geez, this game is
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: actually kind of interesting. Atlanta, they've been played pretty well
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: to start the season, but they did just lose in
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: Arizona the last two games they split the series. Now
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: they're having to travel to Anaheim. It's not really that
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: much of a travel spot though, going from Arizona to Anaheim.
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: They're coming off some losses that you might consider to
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: be a little bit ugly. Maybe they will bounce back
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: in Anaheim. This game is one of the TV games
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: of the day sort of. It's ESPN Unlimited or whatever.
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: By the way, the La Toronto game is on Fox
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: Sports one, so that's getting a big TV billing just
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: to throw that out there because it's the World Series rematch.
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: But for some reason, this game gets the ESPN Unlimited billing. Here.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: Anaheim could be in a letdown spot because they did
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: just beat Seattle. That was big for them to win
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: that series against Seattle. They're staying at home. They might
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: be kind of riding that high a little bit. So
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: right off the bat, I kind of like Atlanta in
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: this I don't trust Anaheim's bullpen. Anaheim used four relief
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: pitchers yesterday. I think their bullpen is ass Atlanta's hasn't
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: been particularly good. They used five relief pitchers yesterday. But uh,
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: pie Umps is that he pronounce his name? He was
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: only out there for piem. He only pitched. He only
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: threw one pitch yesterday, so he'd be available again today
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: if they want to use him. Atlanta's bullpen hasn't been good.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: I don't believe, but or no way they have? What
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: am I saying? Dude? How am I like? Mis re like?
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: How do I I don't know. I'm just I can't
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: figure it out. At the beginning of the season, and
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: I thought Atlanta's bullpen was bad to start the season,
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: but it's not. They've actually been the best in baseball
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: so far. So clearly they have the better bullpen than Anaheim.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: Anaheim has been all awful, you know for years now. Offensively,
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: I think the Braves have been way better too. Yeah,
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: that's true, the Braves pretty much. I think they have
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: the advantage across the board in this game. Man. They
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: have the better offense. I think the situation is better.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: They have the better bullpen, although it's you know, maybe
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: not totally rested, but neither is Anaheims. Chris Sale is
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: pitching for Atlanto, so I think you have to give
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: them the starting pitching edge as well. I mean, everybody
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: knows that he's good, but that's just because he is
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: decent start to the season for him. He's only given
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: up four hits and one ear and run and twelve innings.
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: His strikeout raid is a little bit down, nine strikeouts,
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: three walks, didn't walk anybody in his most recent outing,
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: so he's been good. You know, maybe with his velocity
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: down a bit because he's older now, he's still a
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: very smart pitcher and finding ways to get through it anyway.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: You know, going up against Anaheims is not going to
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: be the most difficult task. Their offense isn't very good.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: Sixty four at bats. He's been pretty good against him
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: in his two thirty four batting average allowed six ninety
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: four oh ps, twenty four to eight strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: Nothing to really dislike about those numbers. He's going up
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: against Jose Soriano and people are gonna look at him,
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, this is gonna be a pitching duel
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: because Soriano's got a zero ERA so far, and he
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: cooled off two really good offenses. Well, Houston has been
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: the hottest offense in baseball, and they had their worst
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: hitting performance of the season against him, although they did
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: have four walks against him. Then the Cubs, who also
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: have a good offense, he held them way down. But
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: it's not I don't think it's all what it seems. Man. Yes,
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: he's allowed only four hits at twelve innings, eleven strikeouts
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: is good, but he's had six walks, so that is
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: pretty concerning. And you remember what I said about Jose Soriano, Man,
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: Both of those starts were on the road, and you
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: remember his splits last year. He had a two point
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: nine to one road ERA last year and at home
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: it was five point nine. So his home ERA was
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: three runs worse than it was on the road, which
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: is something you almost never see. And it actually was
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: the case of the year before that too, not quite
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: as severe, but the year before that his home ERA
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: was almost two runs worse. So the only year where
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: it wasn't was twenty twenty three, and he was not
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: a starting pitcher at twenty twenty three. He was a
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: relief pitcher, so Soriano has been really bad as a
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: starter at home, so I don't like that. The only
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: thing he has going for him is his numbers are
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: really good against against Atlanta for the most part. In
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: thirty six at bats one to eleven batting average, allowed
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: three seventy seven ops, nine to six strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: So that's the one thing he has going for him.
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: But I like Atlanta in this game, man. Problem is
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: the money is completely fading them. They're up to minus
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: one sixty seven here on the money line, ninety four
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets, only sixty two percent of the
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: cash on them, so the money is completely going against Atlanta. Now,
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: maybe the feel is that Chris Sale is just overvalued
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: in the market. You're not getting a sale with Chris Sale,
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: you know. And I generally, yes, I do agree that
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: Sale is gonna be overpriced generally in the market. And
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: I wish this price was lower, at like minus one forty.
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: I would probably like Atlanta here quite a bit at
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: this price, maybe not so much, but I don't want
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: any part of Anaheim here, man. I think Atlanta has
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: the advantage everywhere in this game. In my opinion, I
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: think they have the advantage in the bullpen, the hitting,
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching, the situation. So I like the Braves
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: in this game. I think they will win this game.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: But the market read does worry me a bit, and
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: it is too high of a price. I mean, if
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: you wanted to find a better way to, you know,
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: look at this game and try to play it in
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: a different way. I don't even know, man, Like, if
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: you wanted to go Anaheim under their team total, maybe,
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: like maybe they're hitting will just be kind of out
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: of focus and Chris Sale might pitch well, you know
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: that type of thing. I don't know, man, because I
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: do worry a little bit still that Soriano has actually
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: done pretty well against the Braves line. So that's the
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: other concern with Atlanta there. Then the last game is
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: a pretty good one between Philadelphia and San Francisco. Philadelphia
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: just lost to Colorado yesterday. Now they're having to go
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: to the Pacific Coast though, coming out of elevation, and
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: they lost a four game win streak with that loss.
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: But maybe it's not the worst spot. You know, it's
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: an ugly loss yesterday against Colorado. Maybe Philadelphia will bounce
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: back from that. San Francisco is staying at home here.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: They just lost three in a row to the Mets, though,
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: so maybe San Francisco will be kind of in bounced
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: back MO two, although that was a difficult series against
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: a good Mets team. San Francisco they do have a
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: good bullpen, still probably the better bullpen over Philadelphia. They
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: used three relief pitchers yesterday. Philadelphia also used three, but
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: they use them less, so Philadelphia's is a little bit
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: more rested. Even though I don't think they are the
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: better bullpen, I think pretty clearly Philadelphia does have the
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: better offense here. The Giants offense off to another bad start.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia has Andrew Painter pitching, and he's still under the radar. Man.
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: People don't know who he is. I talked about him
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: prior to his first start because he was a very
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: very high draft pick, very highly touted prospect a couple
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: of years ago, and his major league debut got delayed
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: because he had to have Tommy Johns surgery. I'm pretty sure,
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: and he's so young that I thought he was gonna
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: come out to do well, and he did against Washington.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: He held him to one to run in five and
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: a third innings, eight strikeouts, one walk, four hits, a
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: loud That was a really good major league debut for
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: him man, so I'm expecting good things from Painter. I
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: think he should do well again here. He's going up
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: against an offense it's never seen him before, it's an
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: offense that's been hitting very poorly. It's a pitcher friendly park,
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: so I think he draws a decent matchup here, which
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: he did in his open or two against Washington. So
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: I think he's gonna do well again. And of course
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: the Giants have never seen him before, so that's another
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: advantage to Painter here. So I like that he's going
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: on against Adrian Houser, who did pitch pretty well last year,
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: and I think he moved around to a couple of
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: different teams. But Houser is not really that bad. He's
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: not as talented as Painter, but he's definitely a guy
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: that can go out there and give you a good start.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: He pitched well ish in San Diego in his first
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: out and give him one earned run. The deepfense kind
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: of lapsed behind him though, a couple of unearned runs
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: scored in that one. Four strikeouts, one walk there. That
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: was a pitcher friendly park there, as well, but so
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: is this park. So Howser, you know, I'm not gonna
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: expect him to do that poorly in this game going
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: up against the Phillies, though, I mean, difficult lineup to
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: have to face, but against them, he's been decent in
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: sixty one of bats two thirteen batting averages really low.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: The rest of the numbers are not as good though
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: seven to one ops it's still not that high, but
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: eighteen to ten strike a walk ratio is a little
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: bit concerning. But then again, he probably intentionally walked Schwarber
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: multiple times because he's got five walks against him. So overall,
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: I don't think Howser is gonna do that poorly. But
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: I gotta give the edge to Philadelphia in this game. Man.
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: I think Payner does have the edge in the first five,
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: and he's if you want to go Philly first five,
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: I like that actually because I think San Francisco does
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: have the better bullpen, So if you want to take
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: the bullpen out of the equation, Philadelphia first five inning
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: is probably my lean here. I like paint or Overhauser
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: just a bit. Uh eighty five percent of tickets, ninety
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: seven percent of the cash on Philly sitting at minus
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: one fifteen on the money line there. Philadelphia is favored
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: for a reason. Man on the road Paynter is actually
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: getting some respect in the market there, and people so
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: don't know who he is, but I think maybe before
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: too long they will know who he is. So those
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: are my thoughts. There. One playing baseball for you. So
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: there you go, all right, closing all the baseball, We're
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: gonna go to hockey next. I suppose I'm gonna take
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: a little quick break. I'll be back in a second.
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: All right, let's bring up the hockey board here, and
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: then we got to talk about NBA and college basketball
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: as well. I do actually have a play in each
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: of those, so I'll be back in a second. All right, Hockey,
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: we have four hockey games, I think is what we
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: got here now, hockey end of season. Of course, you
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: gotta pay attention to the standings because I mean, you
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: know me, it's always about motivation. But the motivation becomes
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: a little bit different when we come down the stretch
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: because you're looking at who's fighting to still get into
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, et cetera. So that's what we're concerned with here.
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: NHL Network. The first game up is kind of the
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: best game. But both these teams are already gonna make
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. Tampa Bay and Buffalo, they're both good. You
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: could argue they're both gonna show up though, because it's
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: a big game and they're in the same division and
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: they're kind of fighting for that like one spot there,
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: so there is that. I think both teams will show
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: up for this because it is just a big game.
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay kind of got away with it against my
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: Boss and Bruins in the last game. They didn't really
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: play that well and still got the win. Now they're
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: starting a road trip. It looks like a focused spot
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: for Tampa Bay here, and I actually think they're the
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: better team over Buffalo as well. I think Buffalo has
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: kind of come from out of nowhere and maybe somewhat
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: overperformed this year. Tampa Bay really kind of the more
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: proven commodity. Buffalo is coming up a disgusting six to
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: two loss though at Washington. That was the Washington team
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: that was really up for it. Washington's still trying to,
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: you know, potentially try to get into the playoffs, So
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: though I'm guessing it's not gonna happen, but maybe it will.
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: Where is Washington at now they're Yeah, I think they're
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: a little bit well, they're only three points back of Ottawa,
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: so I don't know. Buffalo, Yeah, I mean they're kind
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: of in bounced back mode too. In my opinion they
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: were turning over from a road trip, but that it
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: was only kind of a quick road trip to Ottawa
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: and Washington. But I think it does set up such
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: that the spot is a little bit better for Tampa.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: The oddsmakers are telling you Tampa is the better team.
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in on Tampa, fifty percent tickets,
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: eighty five percent of the cash on them, even though
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: I believe Tampa's ahead of them in the standings. Right,
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: So Buffalo, I guess you could argue you could have
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: the slight motivational edge for that reason, but I would
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: lean Tampa. I mean, it's not gonna be a game
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: that I want anything to do with though. Fifty percent
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: of tickets, eighty five percent of the cash on Tampa,
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: So the money is agreeing with Tampa. There. Seattle at Winnipeg,
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: both these teams are likely going to be out, but
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: they're both kind of fighting to stay alive here with
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: Winnipeg actually only three points out of the playoffs. Seattle
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: is six points out, so Seattle is basically on the
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: verge of being dead. So maybe Winnipeg is a little
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: bit more motivation here. Seattle does get the opportunity to
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: maybe even play spoiler though if they care about that.
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: Seattle's lost four games in a row, just lost at
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: home to Chicago, maybe going out and started a road
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: trip might be a good thing for them. So the
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: spot's not exactly bad for Seattle. For Winnipeg, they're actually
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: returning over from a road trip, so the spot is
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: worse for Winnipeg here. They've been on the road since
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: Saturday the twenty eighth, so it's a long road trip.
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: Took them into elevation. They beat Colorado during the road trip.
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: They had to go to Dallas during the road trip
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: as well, so returning home from that not the greatest spot. Man.
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: So a lot of times, like I say, a team
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: returns home from a road trip, they got to get
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: back to a family life. That can become a distraction.
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: Now Winnipeg might stay focused just because they are trying
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: to make the playoffs still and there is a chance
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: that they can, so maybe that will keep them focused
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: enough here but the spot is definitely not a spot
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: where I'd want to touch Winnipeg here, So I'm gonna
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: lean to Seattle here. Winnipeg at minus what sixty five,
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: you're getting a Seattle team. It's probably gonna show up
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: like kind of fighting for their lives here, even though
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: kind of Both teams are eighty percent of tickets ninety
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: seven percent of the cash on Winnipeg. They're a bit
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: of a public side, maybe a little bit too heavy
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: of a favorite here. I mean, I don't really yeah,
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: I don't love the situation for Winnipeg, of course, so
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: I would lean to Seattle slightly there. It could be
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: like a split puck line money line type of thing,
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: but I don't want to touch it. Chicago and San Jose.
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: San Jose is still trying to make the playoffs here, man,
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: so they do have motivation here. San Jose is only
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: two points out right now behind Nashville, and they have
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: to contend with the Kings as well though, so there
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: is that cluster there still. Chicago just ended a losing
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: streak with a win, and sometimes when that happens, you
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: will see that team have new momentum coming out of that.
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: They get a chance to play spoilers and maybe they
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: will show up, but I don't know. They got Carolina
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: on deck, which is a big game. Colorado's already eliminated,
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: so they're only gonna get up for certain games. You
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: know San Jose will get up for this, But San
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: Jose did just lose a win streak, so sometimes that
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: will hang you over into the next game. It was
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: against Nashville as well, which that was a big game
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: for both teams with pretty major wildcard implications, and San
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: Jose could get the job done there, and they have
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: Edmonton on deck on a TV game, So I don't
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: know if I love the spot here for San Jose
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: where they might, you know, potentially even be in a
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: flat spot even though they're fighting to make the playoffs.
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: They're a very public team there minus one sixty seven
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: because the odds makers know, well, San Jose is the
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: better team, but the odds makers know that San Jose
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: is trying to make the playoffs here, so I think
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: that is going to jack the line up on them
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: a little bit too much. I don't think there's really
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: value there. Ninety four percent of tickets, ninety eight percent
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: of the cash on San Jose the money is I
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: guess slightly indicating on San Jose, but maybe not really.
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: They're gonna be a public side. I think they're probably overvalued.
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: I guess I would probably slightly lean Chicago there, but
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: you know, puck line money line situation, I don't want
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: it at all. And then the last game is the
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: one with the most playoff implications because one of these
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: teams is probably not gonna get in Nashville and the Kings.
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: They're tied and currently on Nashville as the tiebreaker, so
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: this game is huge. These teams just played in Nashville,
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: one in LA, and now they're going right back to
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: play in LA again after beating San Jose in between
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: the two. That game went to a shootouts. It was
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: very close. Both teams are gonna show up for although
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: you could make the argument it is still kind of
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: a zigzag. Maybe LA will get up for it to
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: maybe make adjustments to that loss that they had to
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: Nashville on that last game, But LA has also played
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: three straight overtime games, so that might take a little
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: bit out of them as well. At least for them,
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: They're staying at home, so that's not quite as bad.
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: Maybe they will make the adjustments, and you know, show
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: up with a better effort here to try to get
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: this win. Although it's not like they had a bad
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: effort in that other game. It was a close game.
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: And the Kings have not been good at home. As
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: I keep pointing out, there's not a good home team.
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in on the Kings here though,
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: fifty percent of tickets, ninety seven percent of the cash
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: on them. They're at minus one thirty four. I don't
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: know what was the See what the price was in
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: that previous game and see if it changed into this game.
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: Let me say, yeah, the Kings were minus one twenty five.
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: It looks like basically when that game went off. So
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: they're favored by a little bit more in this game.
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: It's not by much. I probably would have a slight
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: lean to the Kings there, but I don't want to
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: touch that game and I don't want anything to do
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: with any of that. All right, let's go to the
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: NBA where I am gonna have one play here. In
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: NBA again, just like with NHL, you gotta look at
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: the playoff standings, man, and see what are these teams
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: playing for? You know what I mean? So Knicks at
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: Atlanta is on Peacock and NBC Sports. The Knicks now,
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: they're not gonna catch the Celtics because I think these
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: teams only have three four games left in the Celtics
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: are three games ahead, so the Celtics would basically have
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: to lose every remaining game for that to happen. I
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: don't think that's gonna happen. The Knicks might not even care.
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: The Knicks might even actually want to drop to the
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: four seed and get to play the Pistons. I think
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: the Knicks have been really bad against the distance this year, though,
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: but playing the Pistons with Cunningham injured and Piston is
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: being an inexperienced scene, that's not that bad of a draw,
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: to be honest. That would be assuming that this these
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: teams even make it through their first round matchup, which
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: I think they will, but that remains to be seen.
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: But anyway, I don't know if the Knicks have a
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: ton of motivation. Here is what I'm saying, Like, just
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: stay ahead of Cleveland. The Knicks are coming off a
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: forty point win over Chicago. They've had a lot of rest,
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: but they do have a huge game against the Celtics next,
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: which well huge. I don't know, because again I think
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: the Celtics are gonna wind up being able to stay
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: ahead of them. But the Knicks do have all the
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: remaining games at home, and I think the Celtics schedule
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: is a little bit more difficult than that. So I
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: don't know. And the Knicks are quite good at home
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: and not good on the road. But that also indicates
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: that maybe the Knicks won't do well in this game
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: because they're not good on the road. Atlanta probably has
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: a bit more to play for here because is pretty
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: secure in avoiding the play in, but not entirely. Man
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: there are only two games above Toronto right now, so
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: Atlanta does still have something to play for it to
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: try to make sure they avoid the play in here.
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: They're coming off another blowout win though against Brooklyn, so
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: I don't love playing on teams that are coming off blowouts.
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: Blowout wins. I mean, they're returning over from a road
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: treble that was a quick road trip just to Orlando
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: and Brooklyn, so that's not really that bad and they're
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: not gonna overlook the Knicks. They do have to play Cleveland,
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: Cleveland and Miami to end the season, so a very
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: difficult end of the season for Atlanta here, They're not
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: gonna get through that with winning every one of those games. Man,
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: I would not imagine. I do think they're gonna win
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: this game, though, I think they have a little bit
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: more to play for in this one. The money is
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: all coming in on the Knicks, though I don't really
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: see it. The Hawks are at minus one and a half.
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: I'm surprised the Hawks would be a public side here.
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: Why would they be. The Knicks have the better record,
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: and they're an underdog, and they're an underdog for a reason.
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: And I looked at the injury report and there's nothing
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: really going on there. I don't think so. I don't
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: really get it. Sixty four percent of tickets on the Hawks,
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: seventy three percent of the cash on the Knicks. I
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: don't really understand it. I don't really agree with it.
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna lean to the Hawks in that game. Do
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: it that information what you want. And then again, like
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: I said, the Knicks are only twenty one to nineteen
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: on the road. It's just pretty bad compared to what
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: they are at home at Lanta twenty three and sixteen
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: at home, so they are pretty good at home. Generally,
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: do it that information what you want, Man Detroit at Orlando.
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 1: Detroit really doesn't have anything to play for right now.
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: They're probably trying to get healthy even though they keep winning.
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: They just won another game and a blowout against Philadelphia,
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: where I thought Philadelphia would be the more motivated team there. Detroit, again,
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: they're already locked into the one seed, so what do
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: they have to play for. They're not gonna wind up
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: with a better record than Oklahoma City, who has a
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: four game lead on them. So looking at like are
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: they gonna play in the final if they make it
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: there and home advantage there, I don't think that's a
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: big motivator. Man, Detroit really does not have a whole
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: lot to play for. They're going to Orlando. Or Orlando
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: does have something to play for. Orlando in the standings
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: right here, they have a chance to avoid the play
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: in still. There are only one game behind Philadelphia, so
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: they could avoid the play in still. So Orlando definitely
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: has something to play for. Orlando just played last night though,
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: And that's kind of the issue I have because I
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: like Orlando in this game, but they're playing a fourth
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: game in six days, a third game in four days,
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: all in different cities. They did barely get by New
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: Orleans last night, so that might focus them more. They
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: might have been looking ahead to this game and they
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: almost got caught. But I just don't love that they're
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: on the back to back man. Now Orlando is more
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: intact now I believe their injured players have pretty much returned. Yeah,
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: so like Wagner is finally back, Suggs looks like he's
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: healthy again. Detroit's missing some of their guys now. Like
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: I said, Cunningham don't even know when he's coming back.
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: But again, motivationally, I think Orlando clearly has more motivation here.
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: Detroit's up to a three and a half point favorite,
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: though seventy two tickets on Detroit seventy nine percent of
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: the cash on Orlando. I agree with Orlando here. I
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: just worry a little bit about the back to back
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: and the lack of rest that they have there in
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: that schedule. But I would only play Orlando in that game.
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: Mister Pinsey, what's up, man, I didn't like UCLA to
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: win that. I don't love futures. I think the better
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: approach is the roll over instead of the future. Like
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: if you bet a team on the money line and
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: then roll those winnings over into the next one, betting
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: on the money line again. Although with a team like
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: UCLA that was favored in like basically every game, that
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 1: wasn't great. Although they were an underdog in the final.
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: But oh well, you were not on Ucla, though you
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: were on some of the other ones. Yeah, I mean,
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty surprised that Yukon got back. I thought Yukon
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: was gonna win the tournament. I'm not that shocked that
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: Ucla got to the final, but I thought Yukon was
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: clearly gonna win the whole thing. I didn't like Ucla.
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: You saw my bracket special. The public was on them.
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: They were a one loss team that I thought was
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: a little bit overrated. I thought Texas was gonna be
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: able to beat them again after beating them the first time,
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: which I thought was kind of a matchup issue, that
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: Texas was matched up better against them, and that did
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: not happen. It was close ish, I mean, Texas was
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: actually favored against them. I'm pretty sure. So yeah, I mean,
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't do anything with women. I
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: don't put my money on women's basketball except for WNBA.
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: I got a pretty good read in the WNBA because
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: the situational stuff just all kind of comes into play
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 1: college basketball. I'm not touching it. There's just no parody
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: in women's college basketball. I don't want to deal with
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: it at all. All right, at least in the WNBA
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: you get some competitive matchup Cleveland and Memphis. Cleveland, you know,
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 1: they're I don't even know if Cleveland wants the three seed,
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: like I said, like, does Cleveland care? I don't really know.
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: They're four games ahead of the Hawks, so they're not
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: gonna drop out of having a home advantage here, you
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: know what I mean. I mean, the question is do
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: they really want to leap frog in the Knicks. I
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: don't know they're going to Memphis here, but Memphis, I
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 1: don't know if Memphis is gonna care that much about
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: this game. This game is almost impossible to read. Cleveland
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: does have Atlanta up next twice, but I still think
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: Atlanta can't get ahead of them even if they win
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: both games. Memphis is just playing really poorly right now.
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: This is their final home game though, so maybe Memphis
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: does get up for this final home game. Sometimes you
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: do play well because you want to at least give
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: your fans something to finish the season. You know, Calves
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: are up to a fifteen point favorite, eighty seven percent
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: of tickets, ninety nine percent of the cash on the Calves.
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 1: I would not I would not lay the points to
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: the Cavs here man, There's just no way. Like, I
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: don't know how much motivation they're really gonna have. Maybe
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 1: the Grizzlies show up final home game, I would probably
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 1: lean towards taking the points in that one. I don't
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: want to deal with it. Though you're gonna win one
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: of your brackets. I'm gonna win some pools if Michigan wins.
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, Michigan is a big favorite, but I have
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: concerns about it. Philadelphia at San Antonio. Philadelphia is trying
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: to avoid the play in here man. They're tied with
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: the Raptors right now, and they do have the tie breaker.
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: So Philadelphia is currently in sixth place. They probably want
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: to stay that way. And Philadelphia is coming up a
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 1: really ugly loss, even though it was to Detroit. I
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: thought Philadelphia was gonna be the more motivated team there,
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 1: and I don't know what happened there. Detroit demolish them
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 1: by over twenty points. It might be good now for
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia to just get out of there go on the road.
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: They're not gonna overlook San Antonio. Man. And by the way,
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: actually I forgot this is the best bet for me. Yeah,
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: you know where I'm going with this already. We're actually
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 1: gonna be on the Philadelphia seventy six ers. Phil Adelfia
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: plus eight and a half. Let's go. If they actually
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 1: get this done, I'll play some of that intro again,
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: even though I get like a copyright warning when I
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 1: do it. I think they're gonna show up motivated here.
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: They're trying to avoid the play in, so I think
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: you're going to get motivation out of them. They know
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: they're playing one of the best teams in the NBA.
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: For San Antonio, I think the motivation is questionable, dude.
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: They're not technically mathematically eliminated from the one seed. But
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: there's no way they're gonna gain three games on okay,
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: see with like four games left and they don't play
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: each other again, so it's not gonna happen. So San
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: Antonio and they have a massive lead over the Lakers,
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: who are now injured, and Denver have the same record
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: as them. San Antonio is effectively locked into the two seeds,
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: so they really don't have much to play for here,
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: and they just lost a huge win streak. San Antonio
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: had won eleven games in a row. And you know,
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: I talk about this, the longer the win streak, the
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: bigger the hangover is when you lose that win streak.
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 1: And it was a big game in Denver in Elevation,
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: a close game they lost in overtime on Saturday. I
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna get right back up off the
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: mat after that, man. I don't Their next game up
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: is against a team that they might have to potentially
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: play in the first round of the playoffs, Portland on ESPN,
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: So maybe that is a bigger game here. I don't
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: know that they care that much about Philadelphia. I like
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia to bounce back here, man, and I think Philadelphia
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 1: has way more motivation here. That would be my opinion.
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: Spurs are a very public side. They're at eight and
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 1: a half here, ninety three percent of tickets, ninety eight
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Spurs. We know how
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: good the Spurs are. I mean, we know Wembin Yama
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 1: is like probably the best defensive player in the entire league.
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 1: He's so good. But all that being said, this is
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 1: about motivation man, and the Sixers might be a little
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: bit under the radar right now because they haven't looked good,
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: but they were not in intact team for most of
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 1: the season, and now they are. All their guys are back,
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: and look at their starting five right now. It's Paul George, Maxi, Ubring,
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 1: Edgecomb and Embiid. Basically all those guys are there now.
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 1: So they're a fully intact team and they're pretty dangerous
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: with that lineup. Not a bad team. So yeah, I
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: don't want to say it because I don't like the
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: Sixers as a Celtics fan, but we're doing it. I
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: think there's some value there. I think there's a motivational
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: edge for Philly. We're taking the Sixers plus the points
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 1: in that game, and then the last game is Portland
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: at Denver. Portland is trying to well, I don't They
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: can't avoid the playing at this point, so I don't
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 1: know what they well, what they have to play for
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: I guess is home advantage. They're locked into the playing now.
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: The only team that could potentially get out of the
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: play in and it's unlikely as Phoenix, So Portland is
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: locked into a play in, but they do have the
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: chance to get into the not not a home game,
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 1: but to get into the better game, because if you
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 1: don't remember, the way this stupid round thing works is
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: the seven and the eight play each other and whoever
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: wins that game gets into the playoffs as the seventh seeds,
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 1: So that team only has to win one game, whereas
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: then the loser of that game gets one more shot
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: at it, and the winner of the nine to ten game,
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 1: the loser of the ninety ten game is out. The
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 1: winner of that game plays the loser of the seven
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 1: to eight game, and then the winner of that becomes
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 1: the eighth seed. So that's how it works. So there
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 1: is an advantage to being the seven or the eight
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: because you only have to win one game instead of
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: two to get into the playoffs. So that's what Portland
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 1: is playing for here that and they might get up
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: for it anyway because they're going to Denver and Portland's
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: had a bunch of days off which might help them,
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: but then again, they're on a three game winning streak,
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: so sometimes when you're on a winning streak, having extra
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 1: days off doesn't actually help you. But Denver's coming off
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 1: a huge winner for San Antonio. Dude, so I think
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: Denver's in a bit of a letdown spot here. Don't
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: love the spot for Denver. They don't have a huge
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 1: game on deck though it's against Memphis. If it was
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: against OKAC or San Antonio and those are their remaining
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 1: opponents after that, I would I would probably be like, yeah,
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: we're gonna We're gonna be on Portland here as it
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: is right now. I like Portland in the game, but
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: I don't want to actually make it a play. It
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: could have been a sandwich spot man for Denver here,
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: but not quite now. The other thing is Denver is
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 1: sort of fighting for something here because they are trying
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 1: to maintain a home court advantage in the first round
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: of the playoffs, although with the Lakers being so injured,
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: the Lakers might very well fall behind Denver here, so
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: we'll see what happens there, but we might wind up
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 1: with a matchup again like Denver might wind up playing
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: Minnesota in the first round, which is I think bad
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 1: because I think those are I think the top four
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 1: teams in the West are Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Denver,
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 1: and Minnesota. In some order or another maybe in Minnesota
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 1: then Denver. So if one of those teams is gonna
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: be out right away, that really sucks because again I
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 1: don't trust the Lakers defense. I don't think Houston's good
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 1: enough either with the way they've been playing, So yeah,
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be bad. I think if Denver and Minnesota
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: matchup in the first round, but it looks like it
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 1: might happen, it might wind up being the three to
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 1: six matchup at this point. But anyway, yeah, I'm gonna
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: lean to Portland in that game. Though money is agreeing
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 1: with me on that. Denver's an eight and a half
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: point favorite, sixty six percent of the tickets on Denver,
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 1: seventy five percent of the cash on Portland. So the
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: money is agreeing with me on the Blazers. That one's
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 1: not on my card, But yes, that's the way I lean,
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 1: all right, And then we're gonna go to college basketball.
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 1: We of course have the college basketball final here. I'm
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 1: gonna give out a play on this and you're not
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 1: gonna like it. I don't like it either. We're gonna
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: be on yukon plus the points in this one, man,
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 1: I don't like it. I don't want to do it.
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: I have Michigan in my bracket. You know, Michigan should
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: win their favorite. They probably have a bit of a
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 1: sight advantage here playing in Indianapolis, even though Yukon does
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 1: play in a conference with Butler, so they're used to
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: at least being in the city of Indianapolis. Both these
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: teams are already used to the site lines now because
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 1: they already play it in Lucas Oil Stadium. So I
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 1: talk about that how a lot of times the threes
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 1: are missing and whatever, So unders kind of make sense
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 1: in the semi final games, especially with the offenses having
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: time off and rested. Deepens is not quite the case
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 1: in the final, although it is a final, so a
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 1: lot of times these championship games do tend to be
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: unders anyway, because the teams will really really focus on deepfense.
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 1: But as far as the total here, I think it's
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 1: just correlated with the side really like Yukon's gonna want
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 1: to slow the game down, Michigan's gonna want to try
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: to play at a faster pace. That's what these teams
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 1: like to do. So if you like Yukon, you probably
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 1: like it to go under. If you like Michigan, you
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 1: probably like it to go over. The totals sitting at
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 1: one forty five, eighty eight percent of tickets on the
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 1: over and only eighty six percent of the cash, So
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 1: the money is kind of indicating a little bit towards
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 1: the under there. I think it gets a little bit
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 1: dangerous if it comes down to you know, free at
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 1: the end of the game, stuff like that. You know,
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 1: it remains to be seen. But Yukon, they're not a
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 1: very good offense. That's the one thing we could start with.
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 1: Michigan is the better team on both sides of the ball. Actually,
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 1: Michigan is significantly better on offense and they are actually
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 1: better on defense as well. So why are we doing
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 1: this year? Well, we're doing it because of the way
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 1: the sets up, because I think there's line value here
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 1: in the situation calls for it, and we get pedigree
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 1: with Yukon, and that is what we get here, man,
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 1: We get the stupid Dan Hurley factor in the Yukon factor.
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 1: You know that Yukon is the one team that breaks
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 1: all the rules, like they break all the historical trends
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 1: for Oh yeah, this team needs to be like this
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: good offensively, defensively, whatever, Yukon's the only team that has
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 1: defied those rules, and they've done it like probably three
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 1: times at this point. And we're looking at a Yukon
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 1: team that still has some guys from those championship teams.
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: They've won two of the last three championships, and I
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 1: know this is a weaker Yukon team this year. I
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: get it, Yukon should have lost to Duke. I get
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 1: all that Michigan is, without a doubt, the better team here.
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 1: I'm not questioning that at all. But the reason for
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 1: this play is kind of twofold here, besides the fact
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 1: that I think the pedigree is on the Yukon side,
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: although yes, May is not a bad coach at all,
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 1: and he's coached in the Final four before, so I'm
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 1: not that worried, you know, as far as Michigan is concerned,
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 1: I'm not that worried about that. Now. The main reason
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 1: for this is everybody was saying Michigan in Arizona was
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 1: the de facto championship game, you know what I mean.
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: So that's the thing, Like everybody's basically saying, whoever wins
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 1: this game is the champion. And whenever anybody says that
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 1: that means the other side is getting completely overlooked, you
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 1: know what I mean. So I think you're gonna get
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 1: value you look into the other side when that happens.
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: That also means Michigan is coming off of an extremely
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 1: impressive win, which they are. I mean, I don't think
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 1: anybody expected them to blow out Arizona like to Michigan
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 1: to win that game. I thought if they were gonna
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 1: win it, I mean, obviously, I didn't expect them to
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 1: be winning the game by thirty points in the second averages,
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 1: completely bomb Arizona and just run away with the game.
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 1: That is not what I thought was gonna happen. Yeah,
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 1: I thought if Michigan played their best, I thought they
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 1: could win the game by a comfortable margin. But you know,
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 1: that was insane, Like, Michigan looks completely unbeatable, and that
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 1: is not the type of team that you want to
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 1: put your money on because you know you're not getting
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 1: value on them. I know they've proven the best team
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 1: in the country, man, but they still got to win
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 1: this game. And Michigan also, the other thing is they
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 1: haven't had a close game at all in this entire tournament.
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 1: Every win has been basically just run away blowout. Like
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 1: the closest they were I guess was they were losing
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 1: at halftime to Alabama. I guess, so yeah, that was
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 1: I guess kind of a scare. But they want up
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 1: blowing them out too. Yukon has been involved in close
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 1: games that have gone pretty much right to the wire.
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 1: Obviously that Duke game did, Michigan State did. So if
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 1: it comes down to a pressure situation at the end
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 1: of the game, Yukon has done that already, so they
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 1: might have a little bit of an advantage there. So
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: that is in favor of Yukon as well. You know, Yukon,
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 1: if they fall behind, I think they are gonna be screwed.
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 1: So they're gonna need to slow the game down. They're
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 1: gonna need to keep the game close. That's the one thing.
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 1: Because Michigan is not Duke. You know, Michigan like they
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 1: run the floor, they try to just put scoring bursts
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 1: on you know, Duke does not do that. Duke plays slow,
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 1: so that allows you to kind of stay in the game.
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 1: Michigan doesn't do that. Michigan is gonna try to go
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 1: on scoring runs and step on your throat unlike Duke.
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 1: So there is that so if Michigan is able to
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 1: do that, I don't think Yukon is gonna be able
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 1: to come back. Yukon isn't that good at three point shooting,
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 1: so that is a worry. And Michigan is actually really
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 1: good at defending the three, even though they allow a
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 1: lot of three point attempts. That's kind of because Michigan
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 1: is so dominant on the interior that teams have to
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 1: shoot threes against them pretty much. And Michigan doesn't allow
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 1: a high percentage from three either. So yeah, Michigan's great.
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 1: There's no doubt about that. There might be some concerns though,
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 1: with Michigan is their best player. Lendiborg got hurt, but
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 1: then again, Michigan destroyed Arizona with Lendeborg only playing like
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 1: nineteen minutes in the game or whatever. I don't know
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 1: how good he's gonna be though, and he's the best
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 1: player from Michigan even though he is, you know, a
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 1: freshman or whatever. I don't know how his leg is
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 1: gonna hold up, man. I mean, it seems like he's
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 1: gonna be playing in this game, but he has like
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 1: a knee injury and an ankle injury on the same leg,
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 1: so I don't know how well that's gonna hold up now,
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 1: Yukonomy they do have again, they do have that like
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 1: kind of championship pedigree there. Like Reid has been really
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 1: good throughout the playoffs, Michigan does have answers to him. Though.
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 1: Michigan does have a ton of size on the tier,
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 1: so they could stifle what ucon wants to do inside
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 1: with Reid a bit. Yukon's got Caraman. I mean, he's okay,
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: he was, you know, he's the other guy who was
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 1: on one of those championship teams there. Yeah, I know,
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 1: it's almost like I'm talking to myself out of it.
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: But this is all about the situation, man. And the
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 1: other thing is that I forgot to mention. I'm just
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 1: mentioning all the potential ways this could go awry here
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 1: as well, just so you know. But the other thing
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 1: is there were look aheads right like before the final
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 1: four games happened. You could see all the hypothetical lines.
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 1: You can actually bet them at the books. You could
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 1: bet every one of the possible matchups, and Michigan versus Yukon,
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure it was Michigan minus five and a
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 1: half and now we're looking at seven. And that's entirely
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 1: because Michigan looked so good against Arizona that the oddsmakers
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 1: shifted the line a little bit more towards Michigan. And
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 1: I believe I'm gonna look at ken Bomb real quick,
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 1: Ken Bomb, let me see what he's got for the
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 1: line here. He does still have Michigan as the number
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 1: one defense, Connecticut is eight, number four offense, Connecticut's twenty six.
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 1: Both teams a little bit on the luckier sides. That's
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 1: a bit of a wash Michigan's face somewhere called schedule. Yes,
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 1: that is a concern. He has Michigan winning this game
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 1: by exactly seven by Ken Bum. By the way, it's
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 1: only like twenty five dollars a year, definitely worth it.
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 1: So he has the number. The seven is basically right
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 1: in line. I think it's a little bit of an
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 1: over adjustment though, based on what the books had the
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 1: look ahead at. And yes, the other concern is, yes,
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 1: Yukon did play a lesser schedule because they played in
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 1: the Big East. That's true. Michigan, the Big Ten was
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 1: a complete gauntlet and looks like maybe the best conference
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 1: top to bottom. This season. I think probably yes they are,
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 1: but you know, Yukon, they played some of the best
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 1: teams throughout the tournament here. Just yeah, I mean, Duke,
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 1: you had to downgrade them a little bit. I think
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 1: the injuries definitely did affect Duke there and whatever. So
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 1: maybe that win isn't really as good as it looked.
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 1: Michigan though, I mean, the other thing you gotta say
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 1: about Michigan is they're gonna regress after that game against
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 1: a Look at how well they shot in that game
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 1: against Arizona, due where's the game at here it is?
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, this was ridiculu, that's what Michigan did in
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 1: this game. They shot in the se well, it was
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 1: only in the second half. I think Michigan shot like
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 1: seventy percent in the second half and they hit almost
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 1: half their threes in the game. But they were hitting
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 1: like more than half of them in the second half,
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 1: so that's just absurd. And Arizona, believe it or not,
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 1: had more field goal attempts in the game. It just
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 1: couldn't hit anything. And Arizona actually outrebounded Michigan in the game,
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 1: so that's not the greatest sign there. And Arizona did
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 1: miss a lot of their free throws. But yes, Michigan's
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 1: a pretty good free throw shooting team. But you look
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 1: at the stats. Looking at these stats, you know it
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 1: was kind of a misleading final result here. Man, Michigan
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 1: just couldn't miss anything in the second half pretty much,
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 1: and Arizona just couldn't make any shots. And that's just
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 1: not what Arizona does. They just they can't hit threes.
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 1: And yes, I know Yukon doesn't hit three as well either,
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 1: but they do take them more often than Arizona does,
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 1: so they are more used to it at least it
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 1: is part of their game. So there is that. But yeah, Arizona,
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 1: believe it or not, out rebounded Michigan in that game. Now,
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying Yukon's gonna be able to do that.
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know if they will be able to Michigan
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 1: is they're a huge team and they're very, very good
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 1: at it, but Yukon does have some size to match
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 1: up with it. Anyway. Yeah, I mean, I'm probably not
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 1: making the strongest case for it, but really it comes
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 1: down to I think the line got overusted a bit,
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 1: and again, Michigan looked too good in that game, and
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 1: there's gonna be some regression there. Yukon's got the pedigree
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 1: and everybody. Again, it was mostly because everybody was saying,
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 1: this is the de facto championship, like it's a known
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 1: fact already that the Michigan Arizona winner. That's it, Like
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 1: they're the champion. It's like they don't even have to
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 1: play this game, you know what I mean. So whenever
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 1: that's the case, I'm like, no, you do still have
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 1: to play the game. And a team that is thinking
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 1: like in that mindset might not have the greatest mindset
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 1: coming into the game, you know what I mean. So
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 1: we're gonna do it, of course hurly, as many are before.
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 1: So he knows how to coach these players in this environment.
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 1: So yeah, we're gonna take Yukon plus the points unfortunately,
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 1: and maybe we'll get both. Maybe Michigan will win and
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 1: not cover, and that would probably that would be the
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 1: best scenario for all of us. So that's what we're
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 1: root for. That's gonna do it. Man. Once again, we
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 1: have three plays today. The plays are over ten and
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 1: a half in Astro's Rockies in good old high elevation
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 1: course field. They can go get the Glazilla Monster hot
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 1: dog that they have. They're the only the only reason
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 1: to go to a Rockies game. Uh, you probably have
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 1: to pay twenty five bucks for it. H Philadelphia seventy
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 1: six ers plus the points and Yukon plus the points.
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 1: Oh god, that's what we're doing. I appreciate it, guys.
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. Everybody. Learn a tone on Instagram.
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 1: Let's keep this hot run going. Learn a tone on Twitter.
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 1: Subscribe to me there, man, That helps me out as well, Like, uh,
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the channel here. Let's boost this channel. Man.
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 1: Once we get to a thousand, we're far away from
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 1: We're almost at five. Let's hit five hundred first, let's
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 1: get up to five hundred. Then we'll get to a thousand.
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 1: We can monetize this thing. Final, you guys will be
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 1: able to hang out super chat. Maybe we'll get more
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 1: people hanging out in the morning. Come on, man, let's
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 1: get it done. I think I give up probably the
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 1: most information out of any betting show, especially as a
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 1: lone wolf here. Come on, man, Yeah, let's get more
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 1: people doing it. We're on audio as well, so you
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 1: can listen over there Apple Spotify. That helps me out
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 1: as well. But there are ads, but that is what
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 1: you know, helps me get a little bit of revenue
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 1: out of it. Giving me good reviews over there helps
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 1: me out as well. Since we got back on Spotify,
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 1: the numbers have been better again there, so that's good.
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 1: What else do I have to plug? Patreon dot com
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 1: slash and learn to toad You can check me out there.
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 1: I change the tiers a little bit, so I figured,
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 1: you know, the people that are at the lowest tier,
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 1: you know, I got to give them something, you know,
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 1: So I'm gonna open up the uh yuke feed to everybody,
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 1: to all the tea there, and maybe more people will
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 1: come in. I'm gonna give those higher tiers like a
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 1: little bit of something extra. I'm gonna start doing like
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 1: some live feeds and stuff that are Patreon only once
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 1: they get around to it. So I'm gonna hope to
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 1: try to do that. So go check that out. UH
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 1: covered in you because my yuke channel on YouTube where
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 1: those streams probably will be. I'm thinking of maybe doing
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 1: some karaoke stuff on that channel as well, Toadyoke, because
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 1: I'm more of a singer than a yuke player. Man,
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 1: I think I sing better when I'm not having to
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 1: focus on yuke as well at the same time. So
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 1: I don't know if people are interested in watching me
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 1: do karaoke, but I might do that. I might have
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 1: some live streams doing that too, them opening it up
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 1: more man and maybe I'll start doing. Like I said,
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 1: I'm considered doing a Toad's Tier, which probably would be
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 1: a separate channel, Toads Tiers, or I do tiers and
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 1: talk about my opinions just about anything and everything. If
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 1: people care about that, I don't know. Maybe they do,
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 1: maybe they don't. Maybe I gotta be funnier. I have
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 1: no idea anyway. Yeah, and then check out lou their
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 1: cast tomorrow and night will have a new episode there.
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 1: I have no idea who my loser is gonna be
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 1: this week, but you can check that out as well.
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 1: That's gonna do it. The losers who make people pay
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 1: for their picks and barely break even. Well, thank you, sir.
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 1: I've been on a bad down swing here up until
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 1: the last couple of days. We had the nice little
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 1: run there. There are some guys that do it well,
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 1: you know. I like the dude. I like the guys
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 1: at wager Talk. Dude, I've learned the most from Marco D'Angelo.
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 1: I love the way that he breaks down games. They
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 1: have a lot of really good free content. You know.
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 1: I admit that, you know when I when I get
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 1: like sometimes you get discounts from his side and whenever.
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 1: And I admit that I have had some like you
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 1: know bucks on their like wager bucks or whatever, and
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 1: I've used it to check out some of their actual
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 1: like paid picks, and those haven't been bad either, you
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 1: know what I mean. You get the analysis from as
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 1: well and whatever. So yeah, I mean I like some
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 1: of those guys over there. I compete with the Morning
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 1: Wager show that's over there with the Brian Power and
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 1: Mark Zeno. That's a very good show. I'm not gonna lie.
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 1: They have a very good dynamic there. It's like the
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 1: like a comedic duo kind of their straight man and
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 1: funny man kind of you know what I mean. Uh
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 1: So I definitely recommend that show. Yeah, I mean, I
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 1: like a lot of the content they have there. I
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 1: like a lot of the guys they have over there. Man. Yeah,
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 1: learned a lot from Marco. Learned a lot from a
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 1: Vegas run or ace over there. The content that he
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 1: puts out, I like all that he does a lot
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 1: of market reading stuff that I've learned from. Marco does
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 1: like the situational stuff, which is where I draw most
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 1: of what I do from. And then yet like Steve
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 1: Merrill over there and Brian Power, those guys, I like
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 1: the way they analyze games as well. Like a lot
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 1: of times, especially Brian, A lot of times he's kind
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 1: of in line with what I do with the situational stuff. Steve,
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 1: I think it's kind of more like numbers oriented than
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 1: that some situational stuff there. But I like the way
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 1: that he does stuff too, So yeah, I mean I
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 1: recommend all that stuff. That's like, that's the content that
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 1: I mostly consume, so you know, that's basically that's how
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 1: I've learned to do what I do. So that's gonna
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 1: do it. Man. I appreciate everybody, thanks for hanging out.
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 1: I'll be back tomorrow with another show if I'm alive. Peace,