Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - 🚨 FED's Surprise Move LIVE + Stock Market News 17 December 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - 🚨 FED's Surprise Move LIVE + Stock Market News 17 December 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Winston and Felix here, and Winston's looking rather serious, and I tell you why.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: We've got some serious news.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: The United States of America lost a huge amount of jobs today, massive amount.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you the number One million jobs lost just today.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Winston's having to lie down on that news because it sounds pretty serious, doesn't it?
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: And, in all seriousness, I want to explain that to you and what that actually means for you as an investor.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: And guess what?
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: There is an opportunity in this.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: There is a way to make money out of this, if you actually understand what the heck's going on here.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: And then, as a bonus, I also want to run through with you what's happening to some of the biggest stock names out there right now like Nvidia, like Broadcom very different stories, stock names out there right now, like Nvidia, like Broadcom very different stories and how you can be prepared for what's coming.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: So the rest of 2024 will be glorious for you, santa Raleigh or not, and 2025 will be the best year ever.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: You can be as happy as Winston, who does now look rather exhausted and tired.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: That was quite a lot of effort for him.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: So let me ask you a question.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Let me ask you a question here, if I can find a pen.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: So the US is losing 1 million jobs today and I'll explain just in a second exactly how that works.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Is that either good news or is that bad news from your point of view?
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: If it's good news, put a one in the chat.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: If it's bad news, put a two in the chat.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Let me just see what people think of this as a concept.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Put it in the chat.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Put it in the chat.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: It in the chat.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: That's what we're gonna look at.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'm also seeing the little poll here.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Okay, I love that, right.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Um stick thinks it's good news.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Fox gaming thinks it's true, it's bad news.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: John thinks it's very good news.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Okay, some of you like making people unemployed.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Hey, it's pretty mixed.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Very interesting.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Okay, some of you been watching me for a while, right, and my endless rants about unemployment and how that can actually be a silver lining.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: But quite a lot of you think it's bad news, which is sort of the normal thing.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Okay, a lot more twos.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: You'd normally think that was a bad thing economy imploding or something dreadful happening, right?
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Well, let me show you what's going on here.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: This is data from Goldman Sachs and the Department of Labor, which are basically number crunchers who make stuff up.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: They're going to revise down the amount of jobs created in the last quarter by about 1 million today, and that seems like a rather large oversight, doesn't it?
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: How do you lose a million jobs?
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Well, it's a spreadsheet error.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: Well, no, actually they call it seasonal adjustments, and they do that before elections so the government looks better, and then after elections they undo it when no one's listening because nobody reads non-farm payroll seasonal adjustment reports.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Right, I mean nobody, nobody.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: It's just me, basically, and nobody else.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: And I tell people about it and they run away.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: You know, the bar is empty when I mention it.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: I have no idea why, but it has a very important outcome for us and that's why I bring it up, because this stuff's actually important.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Most macro news is irrelevant, but this is actually very, very important, actually important.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: Most macro news is irrelevant, but this is actually very, very important.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: What happens tomorrow?
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: Tomorrow, jerome the Great Powell is sitting down with his fellow Fed presidents and they'll be sitting around a large table with a large crystal chandelier sort of type thing in the middle of the table.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: It'll be full of brandy or sherry and then they'll all sit there and they swig their sherries and they'll talk about.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: I don't know what they talk about, but they'll come to the conclusion that they'll cut rates.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: And they basically have to cut rates because the day before today, the US economy lost a million jobs.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: So the pretext we needed to get this probably last rate cut for a while, through which will be a half a quarter point cut, is here.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: So it's almost as if someone's arranging this right.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: It's almost as if somebody is there, sort of the puppet master going well, I'd like a rate cut.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: That would be good for my portfolio.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: And you know, I don't know, maybe it's Nancy Pelosi or her husband.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: It's apparently the trading whiz in that family.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: So it's good news, folks.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: It really is very good news.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, it doesn't mean actual jobs were lost, it's just a statistical bit of nonsense.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: But it means the market is thinking oh, economy is a little bit softer, the Fed's going to cut.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: And what does that do?
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: Well, that does a couple of things.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: It improves stock prices, especially for tech and for risky shit.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Did I just say that?
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: I did, didn't I Merde?
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: And it also reduces what Financing's cost.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: So anybody who spends a lot of money on equipment, on factories and borrows money and so on.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: That gets cheaper.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: And what else happens?
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Car loans get cheaper, right, mortgages get cheaper, everything gets cheaper.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: And therefore the US consumer has what?
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: More money to spend?
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Right, more discretionary spending, which is going to fuel the economy as we roll into 2024.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Some of you saying trade vision is not working.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Okay, I apologize for that.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: It was just now.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Let me have a quick glance over which is our trading app here.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Let me have a look.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Let me just hit the refresh button.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: I know we just rolled out an update, so is it working?
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Is it not?
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: Is it working, is it not?
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Is it working?
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: It seems to be.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: It seems to be working, for me at least, although, yes, there are a few bits.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: Something missing here.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: Avgo, hang on.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: Yes, there are a few bits.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Something missing here.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: A, b, g, o Hang on, otherwise, I'll ping the developers.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, there's something interesting going on here.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, there's something really curious going on here.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: All right, the guy's going to have to roll something back.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: I will open my Slack for a second and ping the guys a quick message and say panic, panic, panic, we are down.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Okay, which is stuff that happens when you do a lot of things.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: You guys already told us actually support.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Thank you for whoever did that.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: I appreciate that support is on it and the team's on it, and it'll get fixed shortly.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: All right, so let's get back to what we were actually looking at here, because this is important.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: So, while the market right now is showing you this sort of horror, you put on your sunglasses.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: It's pretty red, except, of course, if you're in Tesla, which I am, which means the world's a wonderful place, and Caterpillar and Google and everything else looking a little bit bleak.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: But look at the numbers.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: They're pretty small 0.1, 0.2, 0.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: This doesn't really matter, right?
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: Hire Gemini AI to handle 2A vision coding?
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: We do, but it's not quite as they advertise it.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: It works very well if you're starting something from scratch, but if you have something existing, you still kind of need some brains, and we have about a dozen brains working on this who are all very, very smart people.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: So I'm sure, between all those PhDs and so on, the guys will figure it out.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: So we have a channel here and Jeff, who's my partner on this, wrote Yup, so they're working on it.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: They'll just roll back whatever the last update was and then we'll be back online in a moment, and remember what I said about the consumer being quite happy about lower interest rates.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Well, look at this Retail sales just came in at 0.7% growth.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: That is higher than expected and I should use a green pen for that, because it was a good thing.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: That is a wonderful thing.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: The US consumer is out, it's using and abusing its plastic and it's going to make everybody else richer, which, of course, we like short-term people that we are.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: Now I was going to tell you about the wonderful things that Trade Vision is doing.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: So we have literally added today an integration for Webull and also for Trading 2.1.2.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: So you can import your trades and I appreciate we are offline as of the very second, but don't worry, it'll get fixed in a few minutes.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I can.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: Hopefully.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Does it work?
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: Does it work?
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so you can see like, yeah, this actually works.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: So you can see, say, our beautiful Tesla position here, which is now up an extraordinary amount 230%.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: So you can see, like, when you enter the trades, this works for options.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: This also works for stocks.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Equally, both works.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: It works for complex trades, it works for simple trades, and so we now support basically every major broker there is, which is cool.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: So Webull, trader 1-2, tasty, robinhood, fidelity, thinkorswim, schwab yeah, all the major ones, and if we're missing any, let us know.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: We will add them to the pipeline.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: But yeah, super, super excited by that.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: So if you want to play around with that and actually see how much money you're making over time and track that which I think is one of the most important things, especially look at losing trades.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: We also send out daily alerts from our AI indicators.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: So say, broadcom, buysignal yesterday, mew Trump Media you know there's a few other things in there and you get those twice a day as well.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: There's a seven-day free trial so you, completely risk-free, can play around with it, and it might be that you have to wait a few minutes till the website's back, but you go to felixrentsorg.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: Slash trade vision Links also down below in the description, as they say in some parts of the world.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: And does importing your trades include dividend payments?
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: Carl, that's a very, very interesting question and I can't give you the answer to that, but I shall ask the whiz that is building this whether we take that into account.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: I know we've dealt with stock splits.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: We've dealt with a load of stuff Dividends good question.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: I will definitely get on to that, because it's important.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Actually, it's very important that that's properly displayed.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Now I've got another question for you and I want to show this to you because this is a really really good lesson in making money and then taking profits and risk management.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: Really, this is the perfect kind of case study scenario and it's live, it's today.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: It is, of course, nvidia.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: If you look at this chart here, do you want to buy or sell this stock right now?
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: So if you want to sell it, give me a two in the chat, and if you want to buy it, give me a one in the chat.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: And then I want to get a bit of a feel for what do people think.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: If you just looked at this chart here of NVIDIA and what it's doing, what do you want to do?
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: And Imarara starts us off with a one Marcin wants to sell, sell, sell, sell, sell.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Tony wants to sell, buy, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, buy.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: Bart wants to buy lots of it.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: It pretty mixed, isn't it?
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: It's pretty mixed.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: It's a bit like I'm schizophrenic here.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: This morning I just saw a three.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: You're gonna have to explain that to me.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Is that an options trade or something?
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, very mixed.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: You guys are, literally, I'd say, split.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: We're gonna have to get some sort of voting app, aren't we?
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: That would be fun.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and some people have very strong opinions about buying or selling it.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Okay, so there are two ways of looking at a chart or at a stock.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: One is the very long-term horizon, and you study the company, you read all the financials and you come to the conclusion that over the next 10 or 20 years, this stock is going to make you wealthy.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: And you buy and you hold till death.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Do us part.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Now, what's the problem with that?
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: Most stocks move like this they do nothing, they rally like crazy, they come down like crazy and then they do nothing.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: Right, that's sort of what happens.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: So, depending on where you got into this thing, it was either fun or it was horrible.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: So, say, if you bought here, then well, and now you're here, you had a pretty miserable time, right, and what the problem is with that is that for this time period say it's a year your money made no money.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: It actually lost money and you could have put the money into something else that could have made you some money.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: So I'm generally of the view that, outside of buying the index which is not a terrible thing to do.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: It's a lot better than doing nothing at all.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: I like to manage my positions a little bit more actively, and there is a chart pattern on here which you may or may not recognize and it's this.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: Hang on, I'll use a different pen and I'm not one who draws giraffes on charts and that sort of thing, because it's all a little nonsense, but this is kind of a pretty standard pattern.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Now, what is that?
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: This is a shoulder, this is a head and this is a shoulder.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: And you might be thinking it's a little bit of imagination.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Yes, true.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: And then this is an armpit and this is another rather smelly armpit.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: And what happens is if you draw a line that connects your armpits like this, and then on the right side you break below it, which we've done then you take off all your clothes, you run around the house and you start screaming at things Because, generally speaking, that is perceived as a very, very, very, very, very, very horrible, bearish, steep signal and the world's about to end and everything will be over and you should never have gotten into this and that sort of thing.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: A little bit exaggerated, obviously, but that's kind of the theory here.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: So there are a couple of things we can do.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: And if you've watched my masterclass which is free, by the way then you will actually learn this.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: And I'm about to take that masterclass offline, by the way then you will actually learn this.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: And I'm about to take that masterclass offline, by the way, because we don't know how to deal with it all.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: It's just interesting.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: But so you might want to watch that today because I'll probably take it offline this week and I draw these trends lines in here, this blue line that I put in there.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: So what did I say to you a few days ago when we broke below that?
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: I said, maybe take half the trade-off.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: And then there was a 50-day moving average line somewhere here and I said, well, I would exit, right.
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: And now we're a little bit below that.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: We're down here at 129.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: And everyone's going panic, panic.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: It's not time to panic, but it's time to risk manage because, well, we had a similar situation over here and then we went down all this way, right, was that fun?
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: No, probably wasn't, probably wasn't fun.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: And, yes, it bounced back up and it was all good and wonderful.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: But from a risk management point of view, I'd do some risk management.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: Now, if you want to learn how we do that A1, how we spot those big beautiful breakouts and there are big beautiful breakouts happening today, there really are.