Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Catapulting Into NFL Week 10

Transcript

Catapulting Into NFL Week 10 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the favorite podcast from the Action Network. I
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: am Chad Millman and I am going to be joined
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: by my best friend in the world and the Professional
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Better Simon Hunter. Boy, oh boy, did we get very
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: lucky last week in our quest to win one million dollars.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: And by lucky, I mean Simon Hunter and I had
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: a bit of a row this past Sunday morning and
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: it saved us. And by it, I mean I saved
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: us from making some really bad decisions. My brother Simon
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: say hello, hello people. Uh Simon, We're gonna get into it.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: A reminder this season, Professional Better Simon Hunter is joining
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: the pod every week and together we have entered the
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Draft Kings Pro Football pick Up National champ Beionship. We
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: will decide together what picks we are putting in and
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: before we get to the recap, and it is a
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: great recap. We are bringing back the cash fueled phrase
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: that pays contest. From now through the end of the season,
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: we are giving a lucky listener one hundred dollars for
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: every game we win each week, and and we are
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: giving an equal amount to the charity of the winner's choice.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: These have been amazing, like such an outpouring of kindness.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: It's just wonderful to see. To be eligible, go review
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: the podcast using the phrase this week, Simon says, skip
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: and win. Skip and win. Simon says, skip and win.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: Use that phrase when you review the podcast. If we
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: like it and we randomly choose it, meaning Matt Mitchell,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: producer Extraordinary, randomly chooses it, you will win the money
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: and a charity of your choice will were the money.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: One more reminder. Everything we discussed, every pick we make,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: all the data we reference, It's all available in the
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Action Network Gap. It's free, it's award winning. Go downloaded. Simon, dude, dude,
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: We did not agree at all this past Sunday morning
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: at all. Ultimately, ultimately we decided to use we have
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: to in the Draft Kings contest to win a million
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: dollars five games every week. We have to use too
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: bye weeks, and so we had not used any Bye weeks.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: A lot of the people ahead of us have used
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: by weeks, so we decided like this is going to
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: be one of our required bye weeks. Give me your
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: point of view on how this went down. I have
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: a very specific perspective that makes me look like a hero. Uh,
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: so basically we texted about the games we like, and
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: from my viewpoint, I already had a buy in the
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: back of mind, like I was seeing them at before
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: the show. I didn't take Green Bay Thursday night because
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: I could just sense the way we were talking on
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: the show. We were both just like, we like this week,
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: but we need we have we have to use two
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: bye weeks. That's what people understand. Two bye weeks in
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: sixteen weeks, so we don't get a week seventeen. We
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: have the sixteen weeks to play it, so you have
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: to use two bye weeks. So I didn't play Green Bay.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: We uh talk Someday morning and yeah, basically you're on
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: um you like the Titans and you like the Cowboys,
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: and I was on the other side of both those,
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: so in my mind, I was just like, I don't
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: really want to put either of them in. He isn't
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: like my picks, and you were pretty much just like, yeah, like,
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: let's just do a bye And I was like, all right, well,
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: you can flip a coin and text me before the
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: picks lock at ten if you want to play, and
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: we'll play him. If you want to take a bye,
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: we'll take a bye. Because in my mind, I'm a pro.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: If you come to me Someday morning and you say,
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: do you not love this slate, I'm always gonna love
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: this slate. I don't think I'm ever gonna lose. So
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: of course I was about it. But luckily my man
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: chat are only one and four week of the year.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: He stepped in and told said, let's do the buye
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: we can. Let's save us man crazy. We do you
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: do every every Sunday. You're like, dude, I love our pis.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: I fucking love our pics Every Sunday. He texts me that,
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: so this Sunday you sent me. You sent me um again.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Like for people who listen to the podcast, we will
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: go through the whole slate. For people who are new
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: to the podcast, and we're getting more and more listeners
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: every week, um, So if you're new to the podcast,
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: we will go through the whole slate. We will pinpoint
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: the games that we think we are going to like
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: for this week. We'll usually end up with like five
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: to seven games and then come Sunday morning, like Simon
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: and I are texting back and forth based on injuries,
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: how lines have moved, etcetera, etcetera. Etcetera. And so this
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: was generally the lineup that we like. You texted me
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: this Sunday morning. We were on Seattle minus two and
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: a half, Indie plus two and a half, Carolina plus
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: ten and a half, Washington minus two and a half,
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh minus thirteen and a half. That was generally the
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: reflection of what we talked about on Tuesday. We like
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: the Chargers, but you switched out Joey Bosa. I'll fine
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: end up putting in the Chargers first Seattle because I
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: just didn't like I didn't like the Seattle side. I
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: just had that in the competition. But like, that's actually
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: that's why I had the Bills. That's why I switched
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: that out. That's right, So you, I texted back after
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: I got this, Should we skip? I love the Titans,
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: I wrote the Cardinals and wait for it, the Cowboys.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: That's who I loved. And he's like, what the hell
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: do you love about the cow Cowboys? Oh, Chad, that
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: was like the most like, Oh, let me pat you
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: on the head. You're such a silly boy. I'm a professional.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: I know that you knew that some round pick was
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: gonna have the game of his life. I said, You're like,
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: I do love our picks because you always say that. Uh,
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: I'm like, you always love our picks. I wrote, how
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: about the Titans instead of the Steelers? The Titans, I
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: gave you another option, right, like two touched ounds on
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: the road with a QB who can't go downfield and
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: a team that underperforms when they are big face. You're like,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: I'm staying away from the Titans. I hate going against
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: the Bears, I wrote back, I hate you. Also another
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: good call by me. The Titans got a fun recovery
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: for a touchdown. That game would have been seventeen seventeen
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: and the fourth. But yeah, I'm with you, man, it's
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: the Bears the right side. You're like, this is the
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: worst for the Cowboys. You're like, this is the worst
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: team's number of wives I've ever looked at. I'm like,
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: I'm like, fine, you're a bully, but we gotta skip.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: That was it, and we skipped, and I remember texting
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: you in the middle. I remember texting in the middle
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: like I don't know, like you're dancing on my grave.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: I'm kind of rooting for all of our picks to
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: fail just because it's a skip week and then I'd
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: feel bad if we had like done really well and
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: that had been a week we skipped. Well, it's brutal
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: that Chargers on our big balls better the week he
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: had two shots in the end zone, and if he
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: would have got there are those touchdowns. All the guys
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: above us, every single one of them had Pittsburgh, Las
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Vegas and the Patriots. So these dudes already would would
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: have been oh and three just off those three games
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: of Las Vegas would have just blown that game of
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: the Chargers. But we didn't talk about we were We
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: moved in a thirty fifth place during our bye week,
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: and then because so many people had taken the Patriots
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: last night, we jumped all the way to fifteen place.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: So now we're just three back of a million dollar lead.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: It's pretty insane, it is. It is stunning. That is
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: the craziest thing. With the last night, we have moved
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: up to top fifteen in the contest, which is just
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: absurd out of it started. It's got eight hundred people
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: in it and we are top fifteen this late in
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: the season. That is like last year. You know, you
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: worked with Darren Velle and I on we did the
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: west Gate Super contest, and we had last year, I
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: had the best year I've ever had. We had come
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: we had come within like a game and a half
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: of finishing in the money. Yeah, we're like for the season.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: We are top fifteen in this thing right now. And
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: you're right, we got our big balls better the week
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: coming up there, we got our hornets nest pick, we
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: got our survivor pick. By the way, we barely got
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: out of there alive because didn't we choose the Steelers.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Chose the Steelers, And if the Patriots just would have
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: lost that game, of our sixteen thousand left have been
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: knocked out. Man, that was brutal, brutal come back when
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: by the Patriots. But still we are top fifteen to
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: win a million dollars with six seven weeks left in
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: the year ten eleven, twelve, thirteen, fourteen, fifteen, seven weeks
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: left in the year. We got one more bye week
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: and we are top fifteen thousand out of what was it,
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: eight hundred thousand in the survivor pool. We are fucking crushing.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: It's a good year. It's been a good year. Oh
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: my god, Have you ever been happier? Have you ever
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: had more fun? That's what I know it sucks being
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: a pro buddy. I'm so straight line where it's like,
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: I'm really excited for us and especially the fans. Like
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: some of these guys have been betting with us since
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: week one and they're up like a lot of money.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Like we've just been crushing it. It's stuff after coming
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: off a one on four week giving out this picks
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: to people. But that's just how it is. We're not
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: liars or scam artists. We're real. We're real people who
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: are gonna have down weeks. And that was a bad week,
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: but I always say my history, I always have good
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: bounce back week. So I'm really excited for this upcoming slate.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Well listen, really only one of us had a bad
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: week because the other one was not committed to your picks.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: If we were only doing it based on my picks,
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: we would have crushed. It's hard to be humble, Huh.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: Don't need to be what I'm saying, just when you're
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: winning people money, when you're giving away money to charity,
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: when you've got a podcast that is skyrock rocketing up
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: the charts, when you become best friends with the professional
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: better who's like a gift, when your other best friend
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: abandoned you to go be a suit at sports book,
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: Like I'm having the greatest year in my life, Like
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: you contame me where like I'm always loving these weeks
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: and you can step in and bringing like the reality,
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: like smack me in the face a little bit, like
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: come on, Like what do you wanna do here? Like
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: we gotta make smart picks, not the sharpest picks. Where
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: these guys ahead of us. That's why I have so
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: much confident right now. They're just they just keep picking
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: these chalk picks. Like the Cowboys aren't, like we talked
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: about the time, they weren't gonna go oh and sixteen
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: against the spread. The Jets aren't going oh and sixteen
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: against the spread. And hopefully these guys they don't listen
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: to this show and they just keep doing the same
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: thing every week, picking against the Cowboys and Jets, because
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: we'll keep gaining gaining on them if they keep doing that,
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: because they're not gonna have five and o form one weeks,
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: which that's worth shooting for, buddy, Top fifteen, baby, We're
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: going straight to the top number one. All right, Let's
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: get to the games. Let's get to the games. Reminder
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: later in the show, we are going to reveal this
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: week's winner. I'm sad this week's winner is only winning
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: hundred bucks. But you know what is gambling. It's not
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: called guaranteeing. You know what I'm saying, all right? Colts
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: Titans interesting one. I was a big backer of the
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: Cult this past week. They did not show against the Ravens.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: The Ravens didn't look that good. The Culture just looked worse.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: I am a backer of the Titans. I think their
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: defense actually played really well and I think they're getting healthier.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: I like a short week, short home favorite, show me
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: the Titans. Yeah, it's hard to fight you on this
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: where last week the Colts, that felt like a good bet.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: We had forty seven yards of total yards for Baltimore
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: in the first half, their only touchdown was a defensive touchdown,
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: and in the second half they only put up what
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: was a fourteen or seventeen points. But the Colts man
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Philip Rivers just looking cooked. That was such a bad
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Rivers game. And coming into this week, like you just said,
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: a short, short home fav on Thursday night, this is
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: this is typically time to take the Titans, and I
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: know what their defense is scary because they have one
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: of the worst secondaries in football and they've just lost
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: Clowney already to a d line that's awful. But in
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: my mind, it just seems like the Titans here they
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: can put up points where I can't trust the Colts
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: to put up points. So I'm with you. I'd back
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: the Titans in the spot money and bets coming in
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: and the Titans right now, Oh yeah, should this be?
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Do we like this enough? You don't sound like all
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: that enthusiastic. Yeah, because it's a sharp it's a sharp
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: side to take the Colds here. That's like a they
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: just got embarrassed at home playing against a team that
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: just wanted home in a game they really shouldn't have
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: blown out. Like I know there the Bears are having
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: their offensive struggle. Uh, they're just terrible right now. But
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: the Titans, they didn't. They're just one of these teams
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: where I don't trust him out to win the competition.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: And just because the Colts, it's hard to know what
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: rivers we're gonna get this week. If he just gives
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: them a half deeatcon game with this Colts defense, they
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: should win this. But I'm not back in rivers this week.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: I'll take places, but I wouldn't put them in. Now,
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: let's get to the early games. Right now, the Washington
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: football team visiting Detroit is off the board. It's the
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: next game in the rotation. So let's let's move on
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: to the Philadelphia Eagles, the fighting Philadelphia Eagles visiting the
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: New York Football Giants. Eagles are three and a half
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: point favorites on the road, getting all the money, so
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: the sharp side, and getting all the bets so the
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: public side. Yeah, it's it's the battle for the NFC East,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: my friend, divisional game. Whoever wins this is probably gonna
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: win this division. And when I'm looking at this, I
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: see two teams are pretty much evenly matched. The Giants
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: they have a good defense, the Eagles have a pretty
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: pretty banged up defense. But they're from four. Is just
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: really good for the Eagles, and it's hard to back
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: you do these teams. So in my mind, if I
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: had this number at three, it's three and a half
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: of the Giants. Now, I'll take the three and a
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: half of the Giants. But this feels like a field
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: goal game and come off a bye week for the Eagles,
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: it's it's hard for me to want to put this
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: in the competition taking the Giants, So I'm cool to
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: stay away from this one. Look, the problem with the
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: Giants is Daniel Jones, and I'm just you will not
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: get me to bet on Daniel Jones because he's too
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: much of a bet killer, do you know what I mean?
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: Like it throws every sort of metric that that we
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: believe in out the window because he will do all
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: the things that we think are supposed to happen and
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: then at the end of the game, hold the ball
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: too long, get sacked. Who hold the ball too long,
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: He'll throw an interception, Who'll hold the ball too long,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: run out of the pocket, make a bad pass like
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: he If you're going to bet, you have to account
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: for some variations in luck, some variances in sort of
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: what you expect to happen. But he plays so far
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: outside the lane of what you expect to happen because
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: he's so unpredictable. There's there's managing unpredictability, and there is
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: like just walking into the gaping maw of unpredictability. And
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: Daniel Jones is that gaping maw. And right now of
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: Carson Wentz is putting pretty much a saying. That's why
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: if you if you are taking the Eagles, I can't
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: follow you, because last week the Giants had three interceptions
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: and a Firmer recovery and won a game by three points.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: So you're just seeing the Giants aren't consistent on offense.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: They can't put together drives and get third downs and
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: I needed So I'm with you. I'm happy away from
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: this one. You know what, I don't hate here, and
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: this is gonna feel very anti sharp. I don't hate
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: the Packers. Is two touchdown favorites against the Jacks? Crazy? Yeah,
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: I mean it's it. It's tough because like it's tough
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: for me to grade out this quarterback on the Jacks,
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: Like I don't have much tape on him. I don't
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: have a lot of numbers on He played one one
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: game against Houston, which we talked last week. I think
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: Houston is just terrible. And fourteen points so many points though,
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: and the Packers run d you can run on them. Uh,
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't do it. I I'd probably take the Jacks here.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: I got this at thirteen. The fact that fourteen still,
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: which is interesting, means to me that not a lot
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: of people are hitting this game. It must be like
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: a low number amount of money on this game, um,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: because that's just that's that's funny. They would just hanging
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: up four team then leave it there for two days,
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: So that's that must mean that they're they're getting enough
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: even money on both sides that they're just like, you
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: know what, We'll just let the public play this out
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: as the week goes on because they know people are
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: gonna have this in teasers and things like that. So
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: that's an interesting number. Well, my friend, you're not wrong.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: It is one of the least bet games on the board,
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: according to the Action Network app right now on Sunday.
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: On Sunday afternoon, my fourteen year old son, who likes
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: to troll me, said two things to me. He said,
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: as of right now, this is before two we started playing.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: As of right now, Jake ab Lowton is the best
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: rookie quarterback in the state of Florida. Then he said
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: to me, hey, Dad, you know you always feel bad
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: that the Bears drafted Mitch Trobinsky over Patrick Mahomes and
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson. But no, this Mitch Trobinski has more wins
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: this year as a starter than Deshaun Watson. That is
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: actually factually true. From my standpoint, any quarterback that be
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: on the Bears right now, we'll be having a top front.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: You guys might have one of the war cell phones
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: of lines I've ever seen. Just so many injuries. It's
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: just brutal for Bears. We're down. We're down four. Guy,
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: It's it's rough. It's bad. Yeah, it's totally bad. Buccaneers
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: visiting the Panthers. This game opened at six in some places.
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: It's still at six in some places. It's down to
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: four and a half. Tremendous amount of mone not a
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: huge volume of bets, but a lot of money. I
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: feel like John King there not a huge amount of
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: volume coming in from this county right now, but still
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: but still looking at the magic wall of the money
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: of the bets coming in on Carolina again, we gotta
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: count the bets. The bets are not in yet. We
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: gotta count the bets. We're gonna have a change, But
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: right now, this is what it looks like. That's pretty good.
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: I thought, oh chat, oh chat, not good. And this
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: is this is that's not your career, buddy, this is
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: your career. Yeah, you don't got it. That is fun.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: I nailed that. You felt like you landed that this amount.
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: I felt like I out a vision. I felt like
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: I could connect this to something that everyone could understand.
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: People like that in podcasts like oh my god, you
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: know we're all talking about the same thing, John King,
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: like the Magic Wall. I think I knew of it.
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, if people in are re late, that's that
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: was pretty good. If my mic wasn't connected to a
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: metal arm right now, I drop it. Uh. From my
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: viewpoint of this game, how do you not play the Panthers.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: It's a public player of the week. Everyone's gonna come
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: in on the Panthers. Buccaneers just had the worst game
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: of the year. The Panthers almost beat the Chiefs. Teddy
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: Bridgewater as a dog. We talked about all he does
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: is cover. I will be on the Buccaneers. It's I
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: don't have a choice. I have to take them here.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: This is I think people are forgetting how great of
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: a team this Buccan years are. Yeah, they've had two
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: bad weeks in a row. Um, I just I don't know.
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: I just love the Buccaneers. In this position where the
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: Panthers just lost McCaffrey they've played Saints really tough, they
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: played the Chiefs really tough, and the number will keep
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: coming down that eventually we're gonna get really good value
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: on the Buccaneers. So in the competition, if this is
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: at four, I feel conquerable taking them bucks minus four.
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: I got this at five, so to me, it's a
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: good number. All right. I don't disagree with you. One
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: thing you said, how can you not be on the
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: Panthers and then you went to the box? You mean
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: like you're gonna be on the box. I agree with
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: you here. It is the perfect spot to play the box.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: You're getting like, yeah, it feels like a trap with
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: the pack. It's a it's a it's a bilow. The
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: only thing that worries me about the boxes like their
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: defense has not been the same since uh, you know,
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: what is that how you say his name? I think
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: it's uh, maybe I'm wrong. Yeah, you're right, you're probably right,
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: but like I don't know how to say it, but um,
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: since he since he was injured, that defense hasn't been
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: the same. But I agree with you. The Box are
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: the right side here. All right, let's put it in
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: for now. It's in. I wrote it down, We're done. Uh,
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: Texans at the Browns. Believe the Browns had to buy
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: this past week. They are three and a half point
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: favorites over the Texans. I just this Texas team is
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: just bad. They're just really bad. Yeah, don't care for
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: on the public side. The Texans can't stop the run.
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: The Browns love to run the ball. Happy to take
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: the Browns after a buyo, we could sitting down minus
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: three now, so it kind of it's kind of rough
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: be cause he lost that value of the minus two
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: and a half and the Browns have let us down
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: multiple times on these extra extra points missed and stupid
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: things that they just hit the three. They don't cover
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: these back doors. But I like the Browns this week.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: I'm cool taking the minus three. Well, right now, I'm
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: seeing three and a half at a bunch of places,
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: so I've seen not doing it three and a half.
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: So I take the hook with them again. We'll not
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: take that. We will not be like baited by this hook.
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: So come on, bated by this hook. You're just trying
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: to drop funs Now, Oh my god, what has happening?
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: I did it right there like on the fly. Dude,
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: chat is on the run in the high of highs
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: right now, look at you feeling my oats. Alright, so
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: we're gonna keep the Browns on the list if it
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: If it goes three and a half, they're off at three.
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: Will consider them. Uh Broncos visiting the Raiders. Oh ship God,
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: that happens so fast. That's the shortest. It's the smallest
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: early slate in a while. They were blessed three to one.
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: All right, that was a quick early slate. Let's let's
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: move into the lake games. Broncos visiting the Raiders. Uh,
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: Broncos five and a half, five at some places, underdogs,
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: five pounder five and a half underdogs. I don't think
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: that Drew lock is a very good quarterback? Am I wrong?
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: You're not wrong. He's he seems like he needs three
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: quarters to wake up, and then when he does wake up,
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: he's incredible because he has so many good weapons around him,
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: like to his receiving corps, his tight end. They're all
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: just studs. And in my mind, this feels like another
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: game that's gonna probably en up being a shootout in
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: a divisional game. Uh. I don't I don't want to.
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: I don't want to go against the Raiders again though,
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: so it's hard from me here, but like I have
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: to take the Broncos five points. That's a lot of
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: points in a divisional game with two teams that I
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: just don't think either team really has a huge advantage
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: of the other one. The Raiders have some injuries, they
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: have some guys still on COVID list. The Broncos they
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: just play a weird style. We're like we were just saying,
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: they get down big and then they fight back when
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: there's no time left, and and in my mind, if
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be a shootout, I have to take
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: the Broncos here at the plus five. Well, right now
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: we're getting u the bets and again very low volume
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: of the money on the Raiders. So what that tells
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: me is there's also an opportunity for the line to
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: go up a little bit more. And also, like last week,
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: the Raiders had a big win, a high profile win.
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: They are a team that is getting more and more
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: attention because Derek Carr is having such a good year. Um,
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: but their defense is a dumpster fire and like that
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: Broncos Russian game it with Philip Lindsay, it can be
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: very good at times, So I don't hate the Broncos here,
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: I just like, I just hate betting them. They make me. Yeah,
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: I don't want to put it in. I don't feel
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: like sweating Broncos, Like do you really want to sweat
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: Drew Lock? Like we're gonna be down twenty and nothing
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: a halftime. It's like, great for another miracle. Here's what
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: I want to avoid. It's six fifteen on Sunday night.
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: I've been sitting on the couch with my fourteen year
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: old for you know, five straight hours. It's almost dinner time,
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: and my wife is like, hey, deal with dinner. So
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: I go into the kitchen. I turn on the TV
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: in the kitchen and I'm watching the Broncos flail away
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: and I've got to send you a text that says
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: fucking Broncos. And then they got to come back, and
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: I gotta do with you coming back at me because
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: I'm giving you a hard time. Yeah, that's true. That
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: would definitely happen. It's true. Meanwhile, we got the Chargers
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: visiting to the Dolphins, and like that feels like an
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: interesting matchup. All of a sudden, Please help me, I
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: can't Why can't I not stop betting the Chargers. I
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: want to bet the Chargers too. It feels like they
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: feel like the Browns to me. I want to bet
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: them every single week. How do you have this game
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: power rated right now? So I think you're like I
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: had this as you're getting good value on Miami. I
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: had this had minus three, so two and a half
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: that's good value on Miami. But it feels too easy,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: Like it feels like Vegas is laying a trap for
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: me where it's like two, I just had the game
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: of his life played so well against Vera Zone on
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: the road, coming home two straight wins for the Dolphins,
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: playing a Chargers team who just two straight games historical
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: fashion losses. It's it's so hard for me not to
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: take the Chargers here. But in our pickful it's like
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: do we do we want to take a rookie QB
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: on the road here and like hope for the best
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: because like I just said, I don't think we're getting
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: good value that's in the two and a half. Like
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: if it's at three, I'd feel comfortable taking the Chargers.
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: But a two and a half, I feel like Miami
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: used the right side. You know what this game is
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: right here? This game is at hornets Nest. I'm walking
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: to a fucking hornets nest. All right, I'll be my companion.
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: You think it's the Hornet's not play of the week, Chargers,
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: it's the hornets Nest play of the week. It is.
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: It is like a hard game to handicap. I don't
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: look at Justin Herbert right now. It's sort of a
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: rookie quarterback who struggle on the road, especially in an
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: empty stadium. He just seems like he gets it and
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: he's super comfortable. He makes really good throws in tight windows.
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: He throws a beautiful deep ball. My my concern here
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: is Briant floor Is is clearly a great coach, because
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: the one vulnerability that the Dolphins had last week defensively
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: was against Kyler Murray on third down because they play
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: so much man, they would leave huge running lanes open,
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: and Kyler Murray did beat them for a lot of
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: third down conversions with his feet. But the Dolphins just
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: they don't stop playing. That's the sign of a great
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: coach like and and He's got these guys playing like
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: a level that I think is above where they are.
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: And to is clearly a guy who makes them more
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: athletic and more potent offensively. So how do you not
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: pet the Dolphins at minus two and a half if
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: you have them power rated at three? Right, you're you're
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: right too. It's like such a huge coach in advantage
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: we've just seen from Anthony lenn at the end of
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: the first half, he settled for three points where he
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: could have easily scored a touchdown on Oakland. He makes
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: these little mental especially into the game, to the Chargers,
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: they are just wasting all this time. Like, I'm with you,
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: you can put the Dolphins in if it stays on
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: my soon a half, Like I gotta trust the numbers
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: and said this this, this is the right time to
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: take them here again. Yeah, it just feels like you
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: can't go against the Dolphins right now. Remember last week
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: last week we love the Dolphins when when that game
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: posted against the Cardinals, and over the course of the week,
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: like I kind of got talked out of it by
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: listening to so many people, and it turns out we
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: were right. Our instincts are right. Yeah, alright, Buffalo Bills,
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: we were both like way wrong on last week. Um no,
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: that's not true. We like the Bills and bad weather. Uh,
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: and then ultimately like we like the Seahawks, but we
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: ended up not putting in the contest. Uh, they are
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: visiting the Cardinals. They are two and a half point
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: dogs on the road. Situational play like I had to
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: send minus three for the Cardinals. I know that people
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: are right the Dolls like the road teams. This year,
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: I've have really been what like doing well, especially covering um.
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: The home fill advantage has really been dead. But in
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: my mind, we got a Cardinals team here who that's
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: a really tough loss. It's gonna be a tough week
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: of practice, and this is kind of game where if
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: they're legit this year, they're gonna bounce back and beat
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: the Bills. Because the Bills just came off arguably the
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: most perfect game they played all year against the Seahawks. Now,
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: long travel, out of conference game, it just feels like
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: a smart play here on the Cardinal. So I'm happy
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: to take the money is too. I love the Cardinals here.
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: I like for all the sort of back and forth
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: we have about the Chargers in the Dolphins, I think
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals like are the exact right spot. Let's do it,
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: Let's put them in, all right? So right, now we
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: like the Bucks and we like the Cardinals, and that's
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: it so far. We kind of like the Browns, we
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: kind of like Miami. But you know, Bengal Steelers, Bengals
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: plus seven on the road at Pittsburgh. Big balls better
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: the week. I got a bigger balls better that week.
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: But we can make it that. Yeah, we can make
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: it this one if you want. No, no, no, I
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: want to hear what you're gonna say. But I do
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: like the Bengals here. I think the Steelers have just
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: sort of they've been uncovered, and Joe Burrow I think
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: only gets better like every single week. So I like
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: the Bengals here. Yeah, And I'm with you on the
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: numbers too big probably for this game. Now we have
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: all this news of all this COVID stuff going on
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: with Pittsburgh, and we've seen how COVID's affected teams. Like
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford, he didn't even have it, but he was
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: just self isolating away from his team for like three
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: or four days by himself, and he came out and
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: he just laid a complete egg against the Vikings. And
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: looking at this, if this number stays at seven, I'd
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: feel comfortable taking uh, Burrow on the road here, all
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: he does is cover. He's so due for regression that
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: that's that's the only thing that's giving me policed here.
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: It's like, when is the regression going to come? Because
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: all rookies sat a wall. Eventually, no rookie goes to
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: the whole season flawless. And in a divisional game here,
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: I would take the seven, but if it dips below
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: plus seven, I would not take sin. See what do
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: you have it power rated at? I have it at
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: minus six, So I think that you're getting good value
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: still at six and a half of the Bengals, But
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: I just feel better with the seven. Just the way
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: that they play. It just feels like I could see
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: them being down fourteen and get the back door like
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: push from the seven. So I feel better with the seven.
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: I totally agree. H And who knows this game might
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: come off the board, like if the Steelers continue exactly um,
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: so you never know. The Seahawks got we got a
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: lot of late games this week. We're so blessed man,
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: so nice, right, the Seahawks visiting the Rams. Seahawks two
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: point dogs on the road in Los Angeles? Who don't
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: think you just bet it you just take the rain
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: so you don't even think about it. It's why easy
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: play where you have a divisional game divisional teams off
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: of bye week. I know the Seahawks just got destroyed
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: on the road, but we talked about it early in
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: the year when we were talking m vps and why
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: I thought it was a bad bet to take Russell Wilson.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: He'sn't too part of a division. Too many tough games
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: and what has it been now? Seven turnovers the last
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: two games for Russ. We're patrick my homes. He's touchdowns
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: in one year exception. So it's like Russ has kind
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: of run into it where there's too much on his shoulders.
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: And in my mind this Rams situation, it's a really,
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: really well coached team that can run the ball playing
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: a Seahawks team that cannot stop the run. So Russ
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: might get me in the end here. I know he's
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: got the plus two, but in my mind this this
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: should be a field goal for the Rams. So if
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: this day is under three, I'm more than happy to
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: take the Rams here. I like it is that a BBB,
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: it's not almost there? All right? Well, right now, this
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: is a classic pros Joe's game. Because the bets are
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: coming in. It's a it's a decent amount of volume. Um,
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: it's of the bets are coming in on Seattle, but
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: the money, so we've got some significant split here. I'm
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: with you. I like this game all right. Now we're
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: starting now, We're starting now the now, the bets are
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: getting counted. Now, we're getting closer than being able to
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: call it. The forty Niners are visiting the Saints. It
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: opened it six and a half, it's now at plus
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: nine and a half. You are begging me to take
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: the Niners here, big ball of the week, my big
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: ball better the week. The Saints coming off the most
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: dominating game of the season, according to d v O,
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: a San Francisco blown out at home on a Thursday night,
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: coming across country to play the Saints. Public is gonna tease,
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: they're gonna money line, all of everything on the Saints here.
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: This is a great matchup for the forty Niners. The
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: fact that it's, like you just said, nine and a half, ten,
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: I love it. Anything above seven and a half, I'm
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: more than happy to take on the forty Niners. So
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: this is this is everything game for four Nighters their
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: season pretty much. They need to win this one because
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: they're upcoming games are just even even harder than this.
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: So not that I'm calling my shot. I got the
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: forty nine winning this outright, So I like the forty
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: big whoa whoa, Yeah, you have the you have the
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: forty niners running this outright. The money line price on
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: this greame right now. And by the way, when I
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: yelled big Balls better the week, I yelled it so
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: loud and my dog ran upstairs. I just want you
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: to know that the money line price on this greame
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: right now h three, up from two thirty five, so
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: it's it's getting up there. But I like it. No
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: one believes in them, man, No, no one believes the
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: forty nine. They're they're they're leaving, they're leaving them for dead,
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: and they're gonna get guys back this week, though. I
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna get right. And this is this is
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: a good situation play for I'm in. I love it.
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: I love it. Let's freaking do it. Big ball is
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: better the week, my friend, This Ravens team is not
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: very good right now to me, and there are seven
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: point favorites on the road against the Patriots. I mean,
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: this is a unless you feel strongly it's kind of
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: a past for me. Yeah, like the Ravens if they
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: stay at seven. Um, I'm seeing some books seven and
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: a half now. As long as it stays seven, I
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: put them in because in my mind, Patriots are one
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: of the worst defenses against the run. We know what
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: the Ravens like to do, like to run it. I'm
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: with you, they have not looked right and it's scary
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: that it's as big of a number. But I can't
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: back this Patriots defense. They just don't have the bodies
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: to stop a kind of offense like this with the Ravens.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: So to me, it's a get right game for the Ravens.
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: I know it's back to back road games, but as
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: long as it's seven and under, I'm happy to take
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: the Ravens here. Okay, I'll put it on the list. Um.
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: And now all of a sudden got like we've got
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: a really full list, um, which is cool. We've got
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: a full list, even with lines that that are questionable.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: I think we're gonna tear a couple off right away.
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: Last game of the night, last game of the week.
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: It's the last game of the slate the Monday night game,
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings visiting the dreadful of Chicago Bears. Depending
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: on where you look at draft Kings. Right now, the
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: Vikings are three point road favorites. This is another pros
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: Joe's right now. And it's a decent amount of volume
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: on this game. Sixty percent of the bets coming in
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: on Minnesota, but sevent of the money coming in on Chicago.
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: And I love the Bears, but I am a little
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: worried where I just read you guys just lost your
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: best run defender on the D line and one of
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: these injuries catch up to the Bears, like we just
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: talked about, they have lost four offensive linemen. Now, Montgomery
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: is not a good running back. Nick Foles doesn't have
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: the time to take deep shots and that's what he's
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: best at is the long ball. And the Vikings have
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: just been mowing down people the Dalvin Cook run game,
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: like people are talking about him for m VP right now.
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: This this guy is next level. I don't want to
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: get in front of it. It's probably the pro play
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: to take the Bears here, but in my mind, if
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: it's just two and a half, I'll fall in the
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: trap and I'll take the Vikings and just rely on
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: not not because I know the reason it's like this
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: is that Kirk Cousins. These are the games he falls apart.
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: Like I feel like every time in history, once everyone
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: starts believing the Vikings and Kirk Cousins in our primetime game,
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: they lose by twenty. But I can't do it. I
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: cannot take the Bears shot. I'll take the Vikings and
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: this run Hall phones. Yeah, I think I agree with you.
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: It's the Bears are completely the right side. I don't
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: think I don't think they're the right side enough that
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: I want to put him in our top five. I
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: think we got better options there, but who knows, Like
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: come Sunday morning, like things could change and there's injuries,
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: there's COVID, there's line moves, and all of a sudden,
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: that Monday Night game is looking pretty good. And I
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: can tell you that Monday Night game is going to
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: have everybody on the Vikings. So if we're looking to
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: make a move in the contest, and now we've got
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: to start thinking like game theory and ship like that,
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: Like people aren't going to have the Bears. Yeah, everyone's
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: gonna happen like that's how I mean, Minnesota, they're gonna
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: be and everyone's to use it. Everyone parlays that's just
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: a classic Monday night lineup, but it's it's too hard
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: for men. And I don't like we haven't been doing
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: Monday night games because I like that we're just done
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: on Sundays. It's been nice where we're just done, se
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: stress and have a whole another day to wait to
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: see if they're gonna be five and oh three and two,
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: two and three. Like that's just too too much. Oh yeah,
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: I'm with you. Let's just stay away, stay away, completely agree. Uh,
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: we've got to choose a survivor before I get to
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: the winner of the pod. And I read I got
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: an idea. Oh god, what's the idea? Cleveland Browns. We
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: already used the Browns. Thank god we used Yeah, we
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: used them on that Thursday night. Oh that's right. The Bengals. Um,
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: we haven't used the Packers yet. This is the week
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: you have to use the Packers. They have hard divisional
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: games coming up. Let's just get rid of them. Let's
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: just take Green Band. If we somehow lose to a
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: six round rookie QB, that's that's the way it's meant
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: the bit. That's the way it goes. That's the way
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: it goes for people that have, like a lot of
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: people complaining we don't do too because they have other
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: ones like they haven't they've used teams that we haven't used. Um,
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: the easiest options on the board are going to be
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: the Ravens. I know, I just like the four downers moneyline,
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: but the Saints. This is a week we haven't used
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: them yet, they might not get easier matchups. And Nick mullins, Um,
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: in my mind, there's only two I would switch in
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: unless if you didn't already use green Bay because green Bay,
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: in my mind, this is the best week to play them.
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: So I almost use them last week. Luckily we didn't.
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: We saved them for this week, so we gotta use
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: them this week. All right, let's go with the Packers. God,
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: I love You've I've fallen in love with the forty niners.
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: Bet forty niners on the money line. That is just
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: it's our big balls better the week, don't d D
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: don't put the balls better the week. This is where
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: we're gonna recap it right now. We like the Bucks
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: minus four and a half We're hoping the line drops
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: even more, but I think that's a pretty solid bet
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: in the contest. We're taking the Browns out, We're taking
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: the Broncos out. We we were split on the Fins
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: and the Chargers right now, the Fins minus two and
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: a half. I would say that's on the docket for
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: a conversation and a text exchange where you try to
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: bullying me on Sunday. Uh. We both like the Cards
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: a lot at minus two and a half as far
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: as I can tell. We like the Bengals as long
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: as we can get it at seven. We love the
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: Rams at minus two. We love the Niners of plus ten.
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: So right now I think it's and down to um,
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: the Cards and the Bengals on Sunday. Cars Miami and
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: Bengals on Sunday. Those are the three that we will
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: be debating because right now we love the Niners, love
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: the Rams, love the Bucks. We'll choose two from those three. Yeah,
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: we're just all in on the NFC West pretty much
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: this week. That's what it sounds like. Well, look, we
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: have the Ravens too. We have the Ravens of minus seven.
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: So let's say, like we can choose two from those
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: four right, Yeah, I like that. Well, so we'll figure
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: that out some then more, and we'll obviously tweet everything
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: out that we finalize. Follow Simon Hunter in the Action
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: Network Gap by noon on Sunday, I have I've put
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: all the picks into the app. I've shared them on
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: Twitter and I tag Simon. I tagged the Favorites pod,
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: so you can follow it that way. But if you're
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: looking for early lines right now, we like the Bucks
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: minus four and a half, Miami minus two and a half.
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: We like the Cars minus two and a half, Bengals
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: plus seven, as long as you can still get seven
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: Rams minus two Niners plus ten Ravens my seven niners
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: on the money line as well. Yeah, and it was
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: fun too, where like on thinking I'm up to a
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: thousand blocked, i might only have like four thousand followers,
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: but I'm up to a thousand people blocked, and it's
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: just hilarious seeing these people make a Burner account just
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: to follow me. Again, I'm like the one person they
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: follow on that Burnier account just to see the picks
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: because they hate they hate to love us, you know, Chad,
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: they still want the info even though you want to
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: bad mouth us and as Taylor Swift one said, hater's
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: gonna hate. Well, I'm not paid to be on Twitter
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: like you and Darren Rebel, So if like some some
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: nerds from his parents base's gonna come at me, It's
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: just like, I'm not evenna respond, bro, I'll just block
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: follow me on your Yeah, And it's just hilarious to me.
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: It's like this dude thinks he's gonna like talk ship.
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: All of a sudden, he's just blocked all right, making
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: new account. All right. Listen. Last week we asked fans
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: to rate and review the podcast. Those who did and
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: use the winning phrase in their review were eligible to
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: win up to five hundred dollars. Didn't happen, unfortunately, but
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: we did have loads of loads of reviews. Thank you
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: to everybody. In a second, we will reveal the winner,
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: but first we are bringing back the phrase to pay
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: is contest from now through the end of the season.
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: The winner will earn one hundred dollars. For every win
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: Simon and I have in this week's contest, we will
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: match that number with the donation to the winner's favorite charity.
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: So far, we've given away like a thousand bucks to charity.
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: In addition to giving away money to winners, go rate
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: and review the podcast using the phrase Simon says, skip
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: and win, and Matt Mitchell, producer Extraordinaire, will randomly choose
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: the winner to get that cash. The winner of last
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: week's contests winning a hundred dollars. I'm sorry, brother, I'm
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: sorry it wasn't more. I appreciate listen to the podcast.
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: You're gonna get a hundred dollars. Your favorite charity is
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: gonna get a hundred dollars. Brian Hines. Brian Hines, what
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: did you have to say? Simon says, we love winning.
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: I just started betting this year in the NFL and
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: on sports in general. Everywhere I've looked for insights and information,
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: I've usually found it hidden behind some kind of paywall. Luckily,
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: I discovered the two purest NFL betting aficionados on the planet,
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: with a dynamic duo of Chad and Simon. Not only
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: do they give away expert picks with the data to
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: back it up, but the insight and overall thought process
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: of bet in the NFL that comes with it is
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: priceless and has helped shape my own process. At the
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: end of the day. That's what these guys are all about.
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: Making better is better. On top of all the knowledge
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: dropped weekly on this podcast, the dynamic between Chad and
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: Simon will make you feel like you've known these guys
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: your whole life. Brian, that's fucking beautiful. As a college student,
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: I'm here to pull a Matt Mitchell and say where
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: can I apply for an internship? Simon says, we love winning,
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: and I hope you do too. Yeah, the kid appreciates
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: the free winners chat. That's all we give here, just
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: free winners. I wish we had had more winners this
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: past week. So this fucking college student get more than
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: a hundred dollars. A hundred dollars I could live off
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: that in college for like three months. I was gonna say,
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: for for a kid in college, a hundred hollars just
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: like a thousand. Yeah, bro, just pick up floaters and
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: drink those. That is the most philly thing you've ever said.
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: This has been the favorite podcast from the Ashtion Network.
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: I am Chadnillman. He has signed a Hunter downloaded from Apple,
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: from Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts. Until next time,
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: I love you,